Search found 925 matches

by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD
Replies: 26
Views: 2363

Re: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD

I am at about 15% for my 401K for the year. 70/30 allocation explains much of that, but also consider that the money added during this year has not had full exposure to the gains of the year either, that is significant for those of us early on in the process of saving. Could have been 100% US equiti...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)
Replies: 52
Views: 3388

Re: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)

Stock markets have gone to zero and others have peaked and then never regained that high mark. They don't always go up and don't always recover. Now in the first example, going to zero, I doubt bonds would have done much good. But the more moderate examples, such as Japan, show the benefit of intern...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 39
Views: 2363

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

I have been going back through some of the oldest threads on this forum, to fall 2007 to see what people were saying just before things turned south. My impression is that no one had any idea what was about to happen which is no shock. News came out about mortgage issues and the story broke before t...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increase buying 100%
Replies: 39
Views: 3202

Re: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increase buying 100%

I feel better at times like these because most of my stuck buying is in the 401K, money I can't touch for decades and anyway, half of those equities are international which are not so hot. But don't delude yourself into thinking this is some kind of strategy or system. If you go 50/50 you may never ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pulling some profits
Replies: 13
Views: 1928

Re: Pulling some profits

Now it isn't just the loss of 12% (thousands if you sold a significant fraction) but also the even more difficult position of wondering if you should get back in now before it is too late, or if your correction has only been delayed by a few months. This is why you have to either stick with stocks o...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds - now or wait? [November 2017 rate]
Replies: 39
Views: 4208

Re: IBonds - now or wait?

For simplicity sake, I would suggest buying $10k now so that you're done with I-Bonds for the year. Just a reminder to wait until the end of the month (or a few days before the end of the month to be safe) since you will get the full month's interest on the I-bond and can keep the money in a bank a...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds - now or wait? [November 2017 rate]
Replies: 39
Views: 4208

Re: IBonds - now or wait?

For simplicity sake, I would suggest buying $10k now so that you're done with I-Bonds for the year. Just a reminder to wait until the end of the month (or a few days before the end of the month to be safe) since you will get the full month's interest on the I-bond and can keep the money in a bank a...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parental life insurance: Surrender or sell?
Replies: 13
Views: 1543

Re: Parental life insurance: Surrender or sell?

Update: Coventry has come back with a low 5 figure offer that becomes a high 4 figure amount once they deduct the cost of putting the policy back in good standing. (It has entered some kind of probationary period and is using the lapse protection money now.) I am today going to review the 50 pages o...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate mystery
Replies: 24
Views: 1780

Re: I Bond fixed rate mystery

Barring that, their rates seem arbitrary from the outside and generally on the downward trend. The fixed rate has varied between 0.0% and 0.20% over the last five years. No downward trend there. What about 20 years? And in 3 more years, $10K of EE bonds will be worth $20K. However, it's likely that...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate mystery
Replies: 24
Views: 1780

Re: I Bond fixed rate mystery

Most helpful, thanks! I also love I-Bonds and continue to purchase the max every year in November, got on that cycle after fixed rate first hit zero and figured I might as well wait a bit to see if it goes up. There must be a person or a few people in a room somewhere figuring out the fixed rate, bu...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate mystery
Replies: 24
Views: 1780

Re: I Bond fixed rate mystery

Would be interesting to find out specifically who sets this rate and interview them. Barring that, their rates seem arbitrary from the outside and generally on the downward trend. It wouldn't be shocking to see the fixed rate removed entirely some day or to see the entire program discontinued. I don...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4128

Re: Offensive Valuations

Can't revenue increase too?
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2115

Re: Very confused by Bonds

Not sure you can do much better than CDs in bonds that are safe, but you can certainly avoid the complexities of buying your own individual bonds from the government. I suggest a bond mutual fund which owns thousands of different bonds in various proportions to give you exposure to government and co...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3230

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

What would a “deflating” be like to those of us holding broad index funds including investment grade corporate bonds? The 7-year yield on 2/27/1987 was 7.00%, and on 9/30/1987 it was 9.50%: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=flfS. That would have resulted in a capital return of about -11.8% and a...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3230

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

A horrible year for bonds: -8% A horrible day for stocks: -20% I don't want to confuse volatility with risk since Bonds have had worse 20 year+ runs than stocks, 1940 - 1980 was pretty miserable, but this is why "bond bubble" sounds so funny. A bubble is a mania where prices are driven to extremes ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3230

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

A horrible year for bonds: -8% A horrible day for stocks: -20% I don't want to confuse volatility with risk since Bonds have had worse 20 year+ runs than stocks, 1940 - 1980 was pretty miserable, but this is why "bond bubble" sounds so funny. A bubble is a mania where prices are driven to extremes a...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield vs. 10 year gov't bond
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: Dividend yield vs. 10 year gov't bond

Be sure to subtract the .5 - 1.5% Janus ERs from those dividends. A company more interested in selling new products than speaking frankly to customers about total return.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are international bond yields so low? Or put another way, why are US bond yields so high?
Replies: 6
Views: 526

Re: Why are international bond yields so low? Or put another way, why are US bond yields so high?

Differences in inflation and currencies explain most of it. Looking at bond yields in isolation, without considering inflation, is almost meaningless.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Magazine
Replies: 14
Views: 2158

Re: REIT Magazine

Always got the impression seeking alpha was click bait. Maybe just the articles from them that wind up on Google Finance...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?
Replies: 47
Views: 4122

Re: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?

Including emergency fund, 50% iBonds and 50% Vanguard total bond and a similar in the 401K. Not super concerned about past performance, expect both to about break even after inflation rather than trying to tweak some profit out of them. These investments help make investing in stocks palatable.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Magazine
Replies: 14
Views: 2158

Re: REIT Magazine

Love the idea of REITs, no tax-free space for them : (
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4698

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

Stock dividends are another mystery. The company gives you more shares but the share prices drop in value. So again, why give the stock dividend? Nothing has changed. Its like a stock split. I am at once disappointed and vindicated that you said this. As I have maintained through the whole thread, ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4698

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

The dividends don't give you more money because they reduce the stock price on ex-dividend date by same amount of dividend. The chart you posted just shows the returns with or without dividends reinvested. If you don't reinvest the dividend, the return will be lower because the stock price dropped ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4698

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

That is also the purpose of share buybacks. If you want to extract capital from your investment you get to do it on your terms and timing - not the businesses. The emphasis on higher share price at all costs is a recipe for more Enrons. I would prefer a company set and stick to a policy of returnin...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4698

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I just don't understand the purpose of dividends. I can make my own dividend by selling shares. The purpose of dividends is to give a share of the profits to shareholders. That is also the purpose of share buybacks. If you want to extract capital from your investment you get to do it on your terms ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4698

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I just don't understand the purpose of dividends. I can make my own dividend by selling shares. The purpose of dividends is to give a share of the profits to shareholders. That is also the purpose of share buybacks. If you want to extract capital from your investment you get to do it on your terms ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4698

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I just don't understand the purpose of dividends. I can make my own dividend by selling shares. The purpose of dividends is to give a share of the profits to shareholders. If you buy 10% of a pizza place, do you want 10% of the profits each month or do you want your 10% share to swell in value and ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4698

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I don't even understand Dividends are real net payments to the shareholders by the company, but only looking at the end of the story prevents us from seeing this. When a dividend is given, the share price does drop by an equal amount meaning no net change on that day. But during the months before? ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?
Replies: 44
Views: 5783

Re:

I've heard the 'population bomb' miscalculation argument many times before, but it is irrelevant. I'm glad some alarmist book got the time frame wrong, but since 1985, species continue to massively die off, human beings continue to replicate on an exponential path, we were a phone call away from ne...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925
Replies: 29
Views: 1641

Re: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925

My goodness... bottoming out at 4.4 in the GD. Really puts the 82-2000 run in perspective too.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond return negative. CD or money market alternative.
Replies: 30
Views: 3225

Re: Bond return negative. CD or money market alternative.

Knowing how bonds have done this year is nearly meaningless when it comes to deciding what will happen next year. If interest rates simply hold steady, a diversified intermediate bond fund should match or beat CDs. If rates drop a bit over the next year, bonds could outperform significantly. If rate...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company Sold, Now does this make sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 2142

Re: Company Sold, Now does this make sense?

I would guess your taxes are going to be high no matter what considering the several millions invested in taxable and the dividends you will receive. VCLAX, though noticeably more risky than a diversified bond fund, is going to be better for tax purposes especially considering CA taxes. (You are loo...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selecting from limited 401k investment options
Replies: 8
Views: 623

Re: Selecting from limited 401k investment options

Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs Adm This IS a bond fund. Vanguard Institutional Index I This is one of the world's great mutual funds, an excellent option with shockingly low expenses. Vanguard Total Int. Stock Index Admiral And by adding a bit of international you will round out the set. These a...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Investing at Peaks
Replies: 29
Views: 3582

Re: Case for Investing at Peaks

did investing at the peaks also work historically in the japanese market Not yet, but only if one only invested in Japan. That would be foolish for any country, even the US I think, but certainly for a smaller economy housed entirely on a modest set of islands. If one invested in the market based o...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 22, 2017 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 74
Views: 7593

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

If they offered an iBond for 3% over inflation I would never invest in anything else. Even 2% would be very tempting. Personally, if I wanted fixed income, I'd go with TIAA traditional's supplemental annuity, which is currently paying 3.25% and offers full liquidity. "Investment, insurance and annu...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 78
Views: 7407

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Be sure to search Japan Bubble and check out the other threads on this topic, a few were quite extensive and very helpful. Some investment scenarios for Japanese investors with a variety of asset allocations. If one is looking for hope in those scenarios, it is that owning the whole international ma...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 74
Views: 7593

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

and they pay much better than my Ally bank account If they offered an iBond for 3% over inflation I would never invest in anything else. Even 2% would be very tempting. Personally, if I wanted fixed income, I'd go with TIAA traditional's supplemental annuity, which is currently paying 3.25% and off...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 74
Views: 7593

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

and they pay much better than my Ally bank account I wouldn't call them "much better" than Ally's or other online bank's savings account rates, at least not now. Synchrony and GS Bank currently pay 1.2%, and Ally pays 1.15%. Even with $100k, the annual difference between 1.4% and 1.2% is $200. To m...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Aug 19, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 74
Views: 7593

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

The iBond guarantees you will match inflation, or ever-so-slightly trail it after taxes, no more, no less. I can't think of any other investment that offers this with no risk of principal loss. If one understands what iBonds do, they can't really be disappointed by them. I sleep well at night knowin...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here is a criticisim of active management I don't get
Replies: 24
Views: 2420

Re: Here isa criticisim of active management I don't get

Yes why pay extra to have someone gamble with your money in ways that are both unsophisticated and not terribly likely to work in the long run? We could underweight or overweight Japan or Europe without the extra fee. Still not necessarily a smart idea, but it would be much cheaper. And then on top ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Due to 8 Year Bull Market, Pay Off Rental Now?
Replies: 35
Views: 3876

Re: Due to 8 Year Bull Market, Pay Off Rental Now?

The peace of mind that comes with lower or no debt is worth it for many of us. A 401K with no match and terrible options doesn't sound that great to me. Would continue to max out the good 401K no matter what, however.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Paying stocks
Replies: 33
Views: 3413

Re: Dividend Paying stocks

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:04 am
z3r0c00l wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:25 am
2nd vote for Verizon.
Sorry to rain on your parade
Don't worry about my parade, I don't buy individual stocks or seek dividends in isolation from total return. :mrgreen:
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Paying stocks
Replies: 33
Views: 3413

Re: Dividend Paying stocks

2nd vote for Verizon.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Feds charge brokers in TSP fraud scheme"
Replies: 25
Views: 3261

Re: "Feds charge brokers in TSP fraud scheme"

People ineligible to join would pay and arm and leg to get into the TSP system and these folks are getting talked out of it! It is surprising that this is being treated as a crime because it is what the average adviser (e.g. at Chase bank) does on a daily basis including to my parents.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why haven't my Series-I Savings Bonds increased in value?
Replies: 9
Views: 1576

Re: Why haven't my Series-I Savings Bonds increased in value?

You will see monthly changes but only after an initial delay of iirc 6 months. My iBond purchase from November last year has started showing monthly increases but it did not show them initially. One might expect them to not show any changes during the first year, since they cannot be redeemed within...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 39333

Re: Retreat to cash

This thread has been quite valuable, just one more case of failed market timing and lost opportunities. There is no shame in avoiding stocks but there might be some shame in wanting to invest in stocks but not doing it properly.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Piñata
Replies: 27
Views: 3131

Re: Bond Fund Piñata

STAR is a needlessly complex mutual fund that also comes with ca. 3 times higher expenses than other Vanguard funds. But if you are stuck with it (e.g. in a 401K as the only good option) it surely is better than nothing. There is little reason to have more than total bond market and perhaps some kin...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Singer Says Passive Investing Is ‘Devouring Capitalism’
Replies: 24
Views: 2853

Re: Paul Singer Says Passive Investing Is ‘Devouring Capitalism’

This recent series of stories about the horrors of passive investing feels like strong support that it works as expected. The palpable fear in the active industry speaks volumes. No less a person than Anthony Scaramucci was on a recent episode of Freakonomics to explain the wonderful services his il...