Search found 858 matches

by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3394

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

The .76% ER is positively cheap by Janus standards. It may feel like gloating but if it saves people money, why not. Once again it has been demonstrated that active management, even of bond funds, more often a scam than a boon to investors.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bogle's investment style too aggressive?
Replies: 13
Views: 2551

Re: Is Bogle's investment style too aggressive?

A huge portion of the bond story is unknowable, many choices personal/subjective, and the rest probably doesn't matter. Muni bonds have an important role especially in taxable for those with a higher income. Corporate bonds are dubious over the alternative of some combination of stocks and treasuries.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?
Replies: 69
Views: 6350

Re: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?

Shopping centers are soul-crushing, utilitarian places where you stop in to buy your shoes and get out as quickly as possible. Yeah nothing worse than efficiently getting what you need then getting back to life : ) Maybe that is why dudes like me don't make good mavens for the retail industry. We k...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on ADR OTC stock??
Replies: 13
Views: 660

Re: Thoughts on ADR OTC stock??

Anything I should be concerned about with ADRs or OTCs? Tiny and illiquid, airline, Japan... all of these things are cause for concern. Tiny - NO. It's around $10B market cap (roughly half the size of AA or UAL). Illiquid - NO. Trades 15M shares daily on the Tokyo Exchange. YES on some foreign exch...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on ADR OTC stock??
Replies: 13
Views: 660

Re: Thoughts on ADR OTC stock??

Tiny and illiquid, airline, Japan... all of these things are cause for concern. Buying this stock would be pure speculation, little more than gambling. Is the remote chance of doubling your money worth the risk of losing it all or more likely, seeing it smolder and decline to zero over a decade whil...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is China In An Economic Bubble?
Replies: 26
Views: 1367

Re: Is China In An Economic Bubble?

Run, don't walk... Corruption, lack of transparency, and a government that makes arbitrary moves like banning short-selling for periods of time as if that would cool things down. Probably a good place to try and build a business empire during a period of economic liberalization, but investing from a...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out
Replies: 94
Views: 7000

Re: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out

Actually bonds have done quite well since the mid 80's, the real regrets are probably yet to come. I regret not dropping my meager emergency fund, 15,000, in to the market in March 2009 when I was convinced things were near the bottom. Perhaps it was better not to have been so prescient as it would ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard
Replies: 22
Views: 2624

Re: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard

It feels easy enough with a reasonably conservative AA!
by z3r0c00l
Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TBM (total bond market)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2433

Re: Why TBM (total bond market)?

Generally, increase bond allocation to short term when rates are anticipated to rise, and increase bond allocation to longer term when rates are anticipated to fall. Fairly easy. Of course, figuring out when rates are going to rise or fall is extremely hard, at least as hard as guessing when stocks...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own individual stocks?
Replies: 88
Views: 6957

Re: Why own individual stocks?

cheesepep wrote:I'm 100% individual stocks. I do it because I like doing so and I can (and do) beat the market.


"I beat the market." Anyone can by sheer luck, and some have, in the past. That makes no statement about the future.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?
Replies: 43
Views: 3714

Re: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?

There are more up days than down days so, on average, stock prices do go up on paydays and every other weekday. 8-)
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock gifted to me as a kid. Sell or hold?
Replies: 21
Views: 1915

Re: Stock gifted to me as a kid. Sell or hold?

Taxes are quite low now for long term capital gains, especially if you are in a lower tax bracket, it won't cost you all that much. If the company falters or even goes under, you could lose it all, that is an unacceptable risk. I would sell right away and put it to work in a more diversified investm...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary
Replies: 50
Views: 6987

Re: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary

Billionaires get preferential deals especially during hard times. Consider the deal Buffett got for helping Bank of America during the recession: "In exchange [for $5 billion dollars], Berkshire Hathaway received $5 billion worth of preferred stock yielding 6% a year plus warrants to purchase 7...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4064

Re: Stock market optimism

That graph of the Nasdaq is pretty disturbing, up 330% from the recession low... But I could just as easily see us get another 1 - 3 years out of this run. If someone offered me a bet I would put $100 on the Dow never falling below 18,000 again. Wouldn't be shocked to see 30,000 before a correction ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow crosses 20,000?
Replies: 28
Views: 3032

Re: Dow crosses 20,000?

Hasty numerology, doubly irrelevant. Would make sense for the Dow to split in half back to 10,000 , I think the larger numbers are turning away some investors. It wouldn't help. The divisor, 0.14602128057775 would go down to 0.07301064050, rounded to only ten significant figures 'cause that's all m...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow crosses 20,000?
Replies: 28
Views: 3032

Re: Dow crosses 20,000?

Hasty numerology, doubly irrelevant. Would make sense for the Dow to split in half back to 10,000, I think the larger numbers are turning away some investors.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jan 21, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting my electricity usage under control
Replies: 34
Views: 3805

Re: Getting my electricity usage under control

Lower thermostat in the winter, use fans in the summer rather than AC, keep the fridge close to 40 degrees, and lower hot water temperature. The Jimmy Carter method, often overlooked.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jan 21, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better option than Vanguard Moneymarket
Replies: 14
Views: 1293

Re: Better option than Vanguard Moneymarket

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0132&FundIntExt=INT VBISX is pretty safe and may earn you about what a savings account does, less than a CD and of course more risky than either. If you are using it like an MM with lots of incoming and outgoing funds, things may get more co...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vital Mistake - Damage Control?
Replies: 16
Views: 2872

Re: Vital Mistake - Damage Control?

+1 vote for him leaving their service as soon as possible. The annual percentage will soon dwarf the front-end cost. Unfortunately I have caught my parents being taken advantage of by similar offers, annuities, etc. They are the prime target for young, mildly desperate financial planners with polish...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!
Replies: 29
Views: 5750

Re: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!

Maybe some sanity will come back to interest rates. Money should have a cost similar to everything else that is worth having. The free ride for borrowers and blatant disrespect for savers does not equate to economic prosperity. It causes the dislocation of capital and adds unwarranted risk to the e...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anybody else Age - 10 in bonds, rest in stocks
Replies: 58
Views: 4227

Re: Anybody else Age - 10 in bonds, rest in stocks

Age - 10 in bonds with 5% increments, rounding up. Totally arbitrary but feels about right for comfort and glide path into retirement. Not planning to go past 50/50 at any age.

Nearly 35 yo, 75/25 though for the past 8 years it was a drag on return for sure.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes on Vanguard funds paying 4%+
Replies: 1
Views: 1120

Re: Forbes on Vanguard funds paying 4%+

Breaking apart income from total return is dubious. It would be interesting to see someone justify the very concept of being an income investor. Long bonds, risky bonds, and REITs are the predictable constituents of this list. 24 year maturity is no joke! However it is safe to say that BLV has had a...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is driving for uber worth it for side money?
Replies: 67
Views: 10973

Re: Is driving for uber worth it for side money?

Much better to find extra hours at your current job or in the same field if possible, imho. I do about 10% extra per year (used to be 20% before a significant promotion) in my field through part time/consulting work. Helpful for that extra vacation per year and in all probability, early retirement o...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-bonds
Replies: 41
Views: 5570

Re: I-bonds

Is the fixed rate so low because more people are purchasing i-bonds than in the past and so there is no need to attract new customers? Or is it more a reflection of the spread between other bonds and inflation?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 05, 2016 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 48
Views: 13057

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

Investment101 wrote:does USO tracks and correlates with oil? can you list some that does thanks.


Image

Have you seen the chart for USO?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 01, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it risky to have all your money in one place?
Replies: 19
Views: 2106

Re: Is it risky to have all your money in one place?

This may help: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_safety

"What if Vanguard went broke?"

For what it's worth, I do like having some money outside of Vanguard such as in my 401K even though that is not entirely rational. Vanguard has better funds than the 401K!
by z3r0c00l
Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rare Black Swan Pattern
Replies: 33
Views: 4207

Re: Rare Black Swan Pattern

Dutch wrote:The charts don't lie! I'm going all cash


Consider shorting postage stamps.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep cash in savings account or bonds?
Replies: 11
Views: 2065

Re: Keep cash in savings account or bonds?

1.1% sounds great, it may depend on local inflation rates in the currency you use of course. Nothing wrong with forgoing some investment returns for the security of a bank account!
by z3r0c00l
Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep cash in savings account or bonds?
Replies: 11
Views: 2065

Re: Keep cash in savings account or bonds?

That sounds a bit short-term for bonds, or at least any kind of bonds that would beat a savings account. You can, however, get 1% in an online savings account at Ally for example. If you know the cash won't be needed in 2 years, a 2 year CD will do a bit better still in the range of 1.25 to 1.5%. Do...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Sep 22, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokered CD question
Replies: 5
Views: 579

Re: Brokered CD question

Just for the sake of clarity, you can get a fully liquid online banking account with about 1% interest. I can't imagine why anyone would want a .4% CD at this point.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 19, 2015 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use Global Market Cap %'s for Equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 4176

Re: Why not use Global Market Cap %'s for Equities?

Absolutely. I see no reason why those who do this for domestic stock should not also do so internationally, which I do. However for the sake of simplicity, as long as things are near 50/50, I am happy with that. Worrying about a few percentage points doesn't seem worth the time and constant trading....
by z3r0c00l
Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 7626

Re: Can the market go up forever?

Oops, that should be almost a novemdecillionaire.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 7626

Re: Can the market go up forever?

A novemdecillionaire seven times over!
by z3r0c00l
Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 7626

Re: Can the market go up forever?

For an entity with $1trillion to spend, stocks simply aren't deep or liquid enough for them. Even if they manage to get all $1trillion in stocks, they would've had to overpay for most of it. And when they sell it they will have to sell at a substantial discount. I don't know that even a trillion wi...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have to open up a bond position, but not sure what to buy
Replies: 7
Views: 620

Re: Have to open up a bond position, but not sure what to buy

One more vote for VBTLX Vanguard total bond market index. One of the best mutual funds out there. It has a simple job and does that job well. Not very exciting but that is the idea really. Will you go to 10% bond at 30?
by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Insured Puerto Rico Bonds- Hold or try to sell?
Replies: 20
Views: 2273

Re: Individual Insured Puerto Rico Bonds- Hold or try to sell?

5% tax free when I bought them. I didn't see this coming as I bought these well before the Puerto Rico problems were well known, at least to me! In many ways that 5% return was the warning sign. My gut reaction is to just hold them. US domiciled bonds from a government that is able to get revenue t...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game
Replies: 10
Views: 830

Re: Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game

Maynard F. Speer wrote:Quite easy actually

Sell immediately and buy back at any negative opportunity and you'll beat the market


Yes you figured it out! Can we turn that into an IRL strategy?
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game
Replies: 10
Views: 830

Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game

"Do you think you can beat the market? Really?" "Let’s pick a random 10-year history of the S&P 500 and see if you can spot and avoid the downturn, as the chart progresses through time below." http://qz.com/487013/this-game-will-show-you-just-how-foolish-it-is-to-sell-stocks-...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 48
Views: 13057

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

You know if VGPMX goes to $3 I would consider buying the minimum 1,000 shares. That's about it though.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 85
Views: 13995

Re: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?

rakaye47 wrote:The ultimate fear portfolio: 30% commodity futures, 30% gold, 40% china stocks


That is terrifying : )
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A warning on RBDs [Really Bad Days]
Replies: 48
Views: 8952

Re: A warning on RBDs

Which is precisely why the constant chatter on this board about "RBDs" and how they necessitate some kind of action is absurd, contradictory, and likely confusing to newer members. Yes, without a doubt, it makes no sense. Wait for stocks to go from 16,000 to 18,000 without buying because ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting out of your comfort zone
Replies: 21
Views: 2707

Re: Getting out of your comfort zone

The most recent decision was moving a 6-figure amount from bonds to equities in the last minute of trading last Friday. That's going to hurt come Monday : ( A 1% drop is still only a few thousand dollars. So I guess I will have to double-down to get comfortable. $16,000 or so? : ) Of course it is o...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting out of your comfort zone
Replies: 21
Views: 2707

Re: Getting out of your comfort zone

livesoft wrote:The most recent decision was moving a 6-figure amount from bonds to equities in the last minute of trading last Friday.


That's going to hurt come Monday : (
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 41053

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

JoMoney wrote:
...Note the rise and drop around 1937... several years after the crash was looking like a recovery. :shock:


Check out "The forgotten man" by Shlaes for more on this double-dip depression.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passed up for a promotion, now what?
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: Passed up for a promotion, now what?

First I wouldn't take it personally, no matter how much the VP likes you it is possible they had some very tight decisions to make. Don't confront until you have new job options. "I am going to start looking for a new job." is too much information for them to have and it does not put on a ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 7469

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

Even though it seems impossible now, the real nightmare scenario would be high inflation and massive inflation adjusted losses over the course of a decade or more. That is the big weakness in bonds; the risk of falling behind inflation over the course of a whole investing career. This is also why iB...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWO - Emerging Markets
Replies: 27
Views: 3563

Re: VWO - Emerging Markets

You mean you don't want to wait for an RBD in VWO to buy? I would invest in something else and exchange into VWO when it had an RBD. I predict that it is just going to dribble lower and lower for a little while until folks get sick of it and sell in a flurry dropping the price more than 3% in a sin...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9638

Re: Piling into emerging markets

Just got $1000 of total international today, trying to keep the AA balanced. Not loving the feel of any investment right now, but what can we do? It is a vote of confidence in the future. The Euro at $1.10 feels like a pretty good deal.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 6152

Re: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?

The uptick in posts against international may be a good argument for going overweight at this time.

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