Search found 2078 matches

by willthrill81
Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I own no international stocks. Can you guess why?
Replies: 167
Views: 11122

Re: I own no international stocks. Can you guess why?

Hi Taylor, You hit your number and decided to go to cash /T Bills / Notes? Funny, this one. Yes, after 7 decades of slaving away 40+ hours per week, Taylor FINALLY hit his number at age 93, a sufficiently good number to fund 40 years of retirement no matter WHAT happens... I think this one may be t...
by willthrill81
Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 39
Views: 5179

Re: Irrational Despair?

I don't know, the market is down maybe 2% from all-time highs and people seem to be in utter despair. Normally, bull markets end with excessive optimism and not with excessive pessimism. Think of the roaring twenties, the go-go years of the 1960's, the internet and high tech bubble of the late 1990...
by willthrill81
Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 71
Views: 6045

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

Personally, if I wanted fixed income, I'd go with TIAA traditional's supplemental annuity, which is currently paying 3.25% and offers full liquidity. That's an interesting idea. Can you buy TIAA Traditional in a brokerage account? Do people use it as a savings account? You must be a TIAA participan...
by willthrill81
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 71
Views: 6045

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

and they pay much better than my Ally bank account If they offered an iBond for 3% over inflation I would never invest in anything else. Even 2% would be very tempting. Personally, if I wanted fixed income, I'd go with TIAA traditional's supplemental annuity, which is currently paying 3.25% and off...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One $400 bonus for new checking account
Replies: 105
Views: 13851

Re: Capital One $400 bonus for new checking account

From the link: "IF YOU DID NOT RECEIVE AN EMAIL OR MAIL PIECE DIRECTLY FROM CAPITAL ONE 360 WITH THE ABOVE CODE, YOU ARE INELIGIBLE FOR THIS BONUS OFFER." This is very important. I made the mistake of opening a Capital One 360 money market account, thinking I'd get the $200 bonus, but I didn't read...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 39
Views: 5179

Re: Irrational Despair?

Irrational despair seems to be the disorder of the day. Or is it quite rational? Should we sell everything now? According to the current fundamentals of the U.S. stock market, there is no rational reason for despair. From the most recent S&P 500 earnings report of 8/18/17: • Second-quarter earnings...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 71
Views: 6045

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

and they pay much better than my Ally bank account I wouldn't call them "much better" than Ally's or other online bank's savings account rates, at least not now. Synchrony and GS Bank currently pay 1.2%, and Ally pays 1.15%. Even with $100k, the annual difference between 1.4% and 1.2% is $200. To m...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional Annuity as sole fixed income component
Replies: 84
Views: 8798

Re: TIAA Traditional Annuity as sole fixed income component

In the current interest rate environment , if I wanted any fixed income, it would all be in TIAA traditional (supplemental, earning 3.25% with full liquidity). No volatility and a substantially higher yield than TBM. What's not to love? Absolutely nothing. But your statement ( bold added for emphas...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional Annuity as sole fixed income component
Replies: 84
Views: 8798

Re: TIAA Traditional Annuity as sole fixed income component

In the current interest rate environment, if I wanted any fixed income, it would all be in TIAA traditional (supplemental, earning 3.25% with full liquidity). No volatility and a substantially higher yield than TBM. What's not to love?
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: update and a thank you
Replies: 3
Views: 915

Re: update and a thank you

I suggest that you check out the Wiki to see whether you should be contributing to a traditional or a Roth IRA. Generally speaking, if you're married filing jointly, you should contribute to the traditional IRA until you are on track to retire with about $2 million in tax deferred assets (i.e. 401k,...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accumulation phase: Roth vs Traditional IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1068

Re: Accumulation phase: Roth vs Traditional IRA?

For a married filing jointly couple, unless you are on track to retire with around $2 million in today's dollars, a traditional IRA is almost always better. If you're on track to have more than that, the surplus investment may be better placed in a Roth account. This is only a rough rule of thumb, b...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 71
Views: 6045

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

Even with $100k, the annual difference between 1.4% and 1.2% is $200. To me, that's little more than a rounding error. I think you are comparing the average rate of return on iBonds over the last 5 years to the current rate on Ally savings accounts. If so, that isn't a fair comparison. iBonds are c...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage or taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 2272

Re: Pay off mortgage or taxable account

My wife and I collectively decided to pay off our 3.375% mortgage in lieu of applying that money to investments. There were several reasons why, including long-term (even though I'm contracted for another three years) concern about my employment (single income household), we don't usually itemize ou...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 71
Views: 6045

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

The iBond guarantees you will match inflation, or ever-so-slightly trail it after taxes, no more, no less. I can't think of any other investment that offers this with no risk of principal loss. If one understands what iBonds do, they can't really be disappointed by them. I sleep well at night knowi...
by willthrill81
Sat Aug 19, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to contribute to HSA
Replies: 4
Views: 552

Re: Best way to contribute to HSA

Automatic investing is always preferable, IMHO, to doing it manually. Money you don't get your hands on is money that's harder to spend.
by willthrill81
Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3799
Views: 997078

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'll bite because I admit I'm still learning--and I am genuinely interested. How exactly do we lose money if we don't sell the shares and actually realize the loss? If I have a wallet with $100 in it, and someone steals $10 out of it, is it a real loss then, or when I open the wallet and take the m...
by willthrill81
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

If many Boomers are like wife and I, they will most of their retirement funds in IRAs, and will ultimately face RMD, not Safe Withdrawal rates. The rare retiree will take excess RMD, above their SWR, and invest/save in taxable accounts. It's been shown by Wade Pfau and others that spending all of o...
by willthrill81
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Bonds have beaten equities over 30 years on occasion. We all admit it's an extremely unlikely event to occur, but it's absolutely possible. I think you meant 20 year periods where it has happened 3% of the time. It has happened 0% of the time for 30 year periods. No, it's happened twice. There was ...
by willthrill81
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6249

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

Does anybody have a link to Larry Swedroes performance over the past 10 to 15 years? I don't think that Larry has ever made his own portfolio public. Larry has published his own portfolio on BH at least once, though I seem to recall more recently postings before he went dark. Back in 2009, for exam...
by willthrill81
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6249

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

Bigbonds wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:38 am
Does anybody have a link to Larry Swedroes performance over the past 10 to 15 years?
I don't think that Larry has ever made his own portfolio public.
by willthrill81
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8436

Re: Buffett and his $100 Billion in cash [are you increasing your cash holdings]

[moved this post into the existing thread - moderator prudent] Buffett and Munger are reportedly sitting on $100 billion in cash due to a lack of attractive investing opportunities (their prospective). From the best I can gather the total Market cap for Berkshire is around $500 billion. Boglehead c...
by willthrill81
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy
Replies: 23
Views: 2912

Re: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy

How do they propose to stop index trackers? Even if they ban index funds there is nothing stopping me from doing what Mr. Monkey did and randomly pick stocks. Unless you bad mutual funds and ETFs altogether, you can't ban index investing. Regardless as to how much active managers hate it, indexing ...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6249

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

Moreover, if there is more risk in some local international market, because markets are efficient, it should have commensurate increased expected return. I'm not saying that's not true, but if it is, it seems that it can certainly take a long time to play out, perhaps a lot longer than an investor'...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?
Replies: 27
Views: 1665

Re: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?

I wonder if some of the confusion surrounding the bonds in taxable vs. elsewhere stems from some people trying to minimize their tax burden while others are seeking to maximize total after-tax wealth. The two are not completely equivalent.
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 159
Views: 18220

Re: Social Security for Millennials

I'm a millennial, 34. Yes, I'm counting on SS, but I don't think about it. I'm trying to prepare like SS will be gravy as mentioned above. I know many of us millennials are concerned about this, but from the folks I know who made $50K a year and are retireing on a small nest egg (maybe 100-200K) an...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 77
Views: 7587

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

By comparison, one can buy stake in thousands of companies very easily for only 3-4 basis points. This has only been true in the US for about 20-30 years out of the 145 years the authors look at. It still isn't true globally, which is what the authors were looking at. In 1950 you couldn't diversify...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I disagree that a 100/0 portfolio represents an increased risk over a 60/40 portfolio - for the buy and hold investor with a 25 to 30 year horizon. That's pretty much demonstrably wrong if we're using anything remotely resembling the commonly accepted definition of "risk". I wouldn't necessarily sa...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

From 1972 to current, the Sharpe ratio was highest for the 30/70 AA (at least for TSM and ITT). That resulted in a CAGR of 8.48%, compared to 10.30% for 100% TSM. Can you explain what those ratios represent? Are those the Sharpe ratios for 1 year returns over that period? for 10 year returns? for 2...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone planning on never retiring?
Replies: 137
Views: 8938

Re: Anyone planning on never retiring?

Well if I die before 55, then I'll never retire. :mrgreen: Seriously, I think that retiring without a definite plan that you have at least tried on some level is likely to lead to dissatisfaction for many people. I personally don't need the challenge of employment, but I know people who do. I enjoy ...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Well we know the efficient frontier typically curves, correct (or at least do most of us accept that)? At the extreme end, going from 100/0 to 90/10 in AA typically sees a greater jump in sharp ratio than going from 60/40 to 50/50. The more equity heavy my portfolio is the more volatility I can cut...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I guess maybe we just won't find common ground here but I can't reconcile your desire for liquidity (keeping an emergency fund), concerns about long term job security, and being such a staunch proponent of 100% equities and focusing on absolute returns. Given the choice between the two, if I sudden...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?
Replies: 27
Views: 1665

Re: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?

For those who haven't read it, the White Coat Investor's argument for bonds in taxable is below. https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/asset-location-bonds-go-in-taxable/ The theory is simple: stocks are likely to grow more than bonds, and growth in Roth accounts is tax-free. Ergo, you have the greatest...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

In my situation, if my returns were 5.5% instead of 6.9%, over a not too long-term period of 16 years, I would need to increase my gross savings rate from 50% to 63% in order to reach the same ending ending amount. That would require a lot of additional sacrifice for us, especially since all of our...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

In my situation, if my returns were 5.5% instead of 6.9%, over a not too long-term period of 16 years, I would need to increase my gross savings rate from 50% to 63% in order to reach the same ending ending amount. That would require a lot of additional sacrifice for us, especially since all of our...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 77
Views: 7587

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

I would certainly hope one would make more from residential income from renting and being a landlord, which is an occupation, vs. merely passive investments in stocks or bonds. I didn't click on the actual study, but I hope that not too much time and effort was spent on the apples vs. oranges compa...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

In my situation, if my returns were 5.5% instead of 6.9%, over a not too long-term period of 16 years, I would need to increase my gross savings rate from 50% to 63% in order to reach the same ending ending amount. That would require a lot of additional sacrifice for us, especially since all of our ...
by willthrill81
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2370

Re: Going passive is an active decision

There are some here who say that if you deviate whatsoever from a global cap weighted stock position that you are an active investor. I don't buy that. What I do buy into are the 'cost matters hypothesis' and indexes.
by willthrill81
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Even if one strongly believes in the theoretical idea that a 100/0 portfolio will outperform a 60/40 (or 70/30, or whatever) portfolio over decades , for most investors (perhaps not Bogleheads) it becomes emotionally impossible to stay the course when faced with steep losses. It's not theoretical, ...
by willthrill81
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance policy on toddler
Replies: 19
Views: 1969

Re: Life insurance policy on toddler

I just double checked...The insured is the child. Apparently the plan "guarantees" or can be converted into 180k for educational expenses at the time her turns 18. So they were looking at it as primarily a college savings plan for him. Anyone else with any more knowledge and specifics would be very...
by willthrill81
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5078

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

Kitces has completed analyses which incorporate valuations into appropriate historic safe withdrawal rates. He found that the historic highest valuations (highest quintile) would still support a 4.0% withdrawal rate if with a 60/40 portfolio. That being said, the valuations we're currently in are n...
by willthrill81
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13542

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I think "over 3 years earlier" is optimistic, AlohaJoe. [...] [*]To reduce sequence of returns risk, one should shift from the 100:0 (6.9%) to the 60:40 (5.5%) stock:bond portfolio some time before retirement. How long before is certainly open to debate. I'm choosing 10 years which is also what Nor...
by willthrill81
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5078

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

The median US household makes roughly 50k a year give or take. How can you tell them they need to save over $3M in 2017 dollars to retire at the same income level? They would just give up. It would be hard to blame them for giving up. To reach that level, you would need to save $3,800 a month ($45,...
by willthrill81
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 65
Views: 6843

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

And the credit card thing? Ha ha ha. I have about 8,000,000 frequent flier miles and points like Hilton/Marriott/Wyndham/Southwest/Chase UR/SPG/AMEX MR/Citi/Capital One... piled up from judicious use of CCs. Over $100k in value. Not counting the ones I have burned. Prior to this year, my DW and I h...
by willthrill81
Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3023

Re: Building A Warchest

I don't think gold has been extremely negatively correlated with inflation, but I'll let others here check me on this. The basic Boglehead idea is that Stocks in the long run keep up with inflation since companies can raise prices to keep up with it by definition. Gold is ... well, a mess (and agai...
by willthrill81
Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6121

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

If you really thought that the medical costs would continue to increase at 5-6% annually for the 'foreseeable' future, investing HSA funds in the healthcare sector might be an interesting way to capture some of that increase. I would presume that if healthcare costs increased at a significantly fast...
by willthrill81
Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5078

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

In my view, the simplest and potentially most appropriate way to avoid sequence of returns risk and 'not leave too much money on the table' is to use a flexible withdrawal rate. The only real downsides I've heard anyone bring against it are that it retirees don't like variable income and may not be...
by willthrill81
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5078

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

There are numerous arguments out there, based on statistical analyses, that the 4% rule is too conservative, weights the absolute worst cases too heavily and leaves too much spending on the table in the vast majority of cases. While that may be true, I find the argument somewhat ironic. The primary...
by willthrill81
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5078

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

In my view, the simplest and potentially most appropriate way to avoid sequence of returns risk and 'not leave too much money on the table' is to use a flexible withdrawal rate. The only real downsides I've heard anyone bring against it are that it retirees don't like variable income and may not be...
by willthrill81
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5078

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

Kitces has completed analyses which incorporate valuations into appropriate historic safe withdrawal rates. Thank you for that, willthrill81 ! You're most welcome. :beer I hadn't seen it before, though I've read many of Kitces' later articles. Michael Kitces is really adding enormous value to this ...
by willthrill81
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you manage your asset allocation like a Target Fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1393

Re: Do you manage your asset allocation like a Target Fund?

I'd say that most Bogleheads use some type of glidepath, meaning they reduce their exposure to stocks and increase their exposure to bonds as they age until they hit retirement. At the point of retirement, there are many plausible options used by lots of people. You can maintain a stable AA at that ...