Search found 3734 matches

by willthrill81
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation
Replies: 43
Views: 3336

Re: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation

This article gives some teeth to risk aversion. A 70% decline in my net worth today would be brutal, but not unrecoverable. A 70% decline in my first year of retirement would leave me devastated and filled with remorse for having taken too much risk. Who is recommending that retirees have 100% of t...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI
Replies: 141
Views: 7190

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI

The problem is if you would buy the same home you are renting, and you are going to stay long enough in it, you would be saving money (i.e: landlord markup) Owners pay property taxes? and so does the landlord and mark it up. Owners pay maintenance? so does the landlord and mark it up. and so on... ...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying off mortgage vs investing
Replies: 17
Views: 1880

Re: Paying off mortgage vs investing

FWIW, I've not heard one person who paid off their mortgage determine later that they made a poor decision and take out another mortgage to invest instead.
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI
Replies: 141
Views: 7190

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI

Taking one's rather unique situation and personal mindset to come up with a set of recommendations for everyone seems...inappropriate.
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation
Replies: 43
Views: 3336

Re: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation

If you don’t quit the game when you’re ahead, you might also start losing.... Right. All roads carry risk. When a combination of pension, SS, and annuity income meets expenses, I’ve won. In other words, when I have enough savings to annuitize my living expenses beyond pension and social security. B...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation
Replies: 43
Views: 3336

Re: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation

To me, this is the strongest reason why bonds and why I will strongly consider annuitizing part of my AA once I retire. This is a huge argument for why one should stop playing if s/he has already won the game. How do you know that you've 'won the game'? When you stop playing the 'game', you might s...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How good are Vanguard bond funds?
Replies: 51
Views: 4379

Re: How good are Vanguard bond funds?

You've highlighted basically zero (maybe one?) of the functionally active Vanguard bond funds. The Vanguard bond index funds and most of those nominally active funds have returns driven by fairly consistent beta exposures over time to term and credit risks. The fund categories are not matched to th...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371680

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:37 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:13 am
The bunny market is hopping again today! :P
?
'Hopping' between a gain and a loss.
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371680

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The bunny market is hopping again today! :P
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9799

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

A disservice is done every time the Trinity study is equated to a retirement income withdrawal strategy. As the latter, it would have to be the worst method. The thought of setting a withdrawal rate, then never looking again at actual outcome, portfolio balance, inflation, etc. is reckless. What is...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 10955

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:50 pm
RMD's may force undesirable trades.
You are assuming that RMDs must be spent; that is false. You can sell enough assets to cover the RMDs, then immediately repurchase the assets in a brokerage account, less any income taxes.
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?
Replies: 26
Views: 2940

Re: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?

Wellesley performance has been underwhelming this year, compared to other funds IN IT'S CATEGORY. It's currently in the bottom 7% of all "Allocation - 30-50% equity" funds YTD according to M*. Like many close to ER, I have sizable investments in Wellesley and have always considered it my "sleep wel...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371680

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

While I don't believe in the EMH, it is impossible for you to know if you're getting a 'bad deal' unless you know what will happen to stocks in the future. Absent from this foreknowledge, stocks are always priced at what the market deems they should be. [/b] That is the EMH. By definition , stocks ...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?
Replies: 26
Views: 2940

Re: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?

Wellesley performance has been underwhelming this year , compared to other funds IN IT'S CATEGORY. It's currently in the bottom 7% of all "Allocation - 30-50% equity" funds YTD according to M*. Like many close to ER, I have sizable investments in Wellesley and have always considered it my "sleep we...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?
Replies: 26
Views: 2940

Re: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?

Wellesley performance has been underwhelming this year , compared to other funds IN IT'S CATEGORY. It's currently in the bottom 7% of all "Allocation - 30-50% equity" funds YTD according to M*. Like many close to ER, I have sizable investments in Wellesley and have always considered it my "sleep we...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3811

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

Things can go wrong, for one thing, we will find out the effect of demographics upon economic growth rates. With slow or even negative population growth, you wonder how this bodes for economic growth. My suspicion is that population growth is a powerful factor in economic growth and slower populati...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A fact about active fund performance
Replies: 1
Views: 262

Re: A fact about active fund performance

Considering that there have been and still are a host of very small (relatively speaking) funds out there, this doesn't really surprise me. A few years of underperformance, and an already small fund with have no choice but to shut down. I think that part of the reason that active management has as p...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"
Replies: 4
Views: 1697

Re: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"

But a handful of the firms riding that indexing wave actually turn Bogle’s dream upside down: With fees that can run over $2.00 per $100 invested, they are more expensive even than most actively managed funds, and are among the worst deals widely available to fund investors, according to an analysi...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

You are searching for a “right” answer. There isn’t one. There are just ways to manage it, just like most financial plans. Don’t let a perfect plan get in the way of a very good one. I'm not looking for a perfect answer; I'm just looking for an answer, a specific one with details . Details matter. ...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1475

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

It's puzzling why folks would think that there's a golden mean value at which stocks are destined to trade. I'm not aware of any economic or financial theory that would support this idea. Clearly, from the historical record, folks are willing to pay a different amount for the same dollar of earning...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371680

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Except if that happens, global asset prices will get obliterated. I would love for the distortions that the Fed has created to naturally correct themselves as they would in a free market, but we don't have a free market and that cannot happen at this point. It would have been easy to dig out from t...
by willthrill81
Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire at age 40?
Replies: 130
Views: 11401

Re: Can I retire at age 40?

What I would do in your shoes is retire, but use the *current* price of my portfolio for the withdrawal rate. So if the market drops 20%, so does your budget. If you can be flexible and perhaps pare down your budget in harsh times, that will increase your success rate by a lot. In fact, by definiti...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

Surprisingly, T-bills have rarely lagged the current inflation rate by more than 1%. Their long-term real return has actually been around 1%. 1% looks good today, but had TIPS existed 30 years ago, their real return would have been well above 1% during most of that period. The real return on T-Bill...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

jpsc wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:44 pm
Why not just buy a 2 years Treasury, or a 5 years TIPS?
staying in cash, and have inflation eating at your money is just bad.
Surprisingly, T-bills have rarely lagged the current inflation rate by more than 1%. Their long-term real return has actually been around 1%.
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371680

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Except if that happens, global asset prices will get obliterated. I would love for the distortions that the Fed has created to naturally correct themselves as they would in a free market, but we don't have a free market and that cannot happen at this point. It would have been easy to dig out from t...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371680

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Except if that happens, global asset prices will get obliterated. I would love for the distortions that the Fed has created to naturally correct themselves as they would in a free market, but we don't have a free market and that cannot happen at this point. It would have been easy to dig out from t...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

When you run out of money and you need more? I mean its not that hard to figure out, no? Specifically, when you will you sell equities vs. your cash? When equities were up? Over what time frame? The last month, quarter, year? When will you begin replenishing a depleted cash reserve? When stocks are...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?
Replies: 26
Views: 2940

Re: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?

02nz wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:42 pm
Wellesley is not an index fund.
Why does that matter?
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?
Replies: 26
Views: 2940

Re: Wellesley January Price Drop? Why?

Both stocks and bonds dropped over that period. Wellesley is a great fund, one that experiences minimal volatility, but it isn't magic.
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

Then you sell some equities when the market is down. You will either incur a cap gain or a tax loss. Nothing horribly wrong with either one. When you consider the worst case, the strategy doesn’t seem so bad. That still doesn't answer my questions. When do you deplete your cash reserves? When do yo...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3758

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

What a similar forecast made in 1986 would have looked like ? According to Back to the Future 2 , I should have been riding my hoverboard to get to work for at least the last couple of years. https://www.ocregister.com/wp-content/uploads/migration/nwk/nwk40g-b88544729z.120151020231248000gakcm3rp.10...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1475

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

As noted above, valuations are not reliably mean reverting . Amen. It's puzzling why folks would think that there's a golden mean value at which stocks are destined to trade. I'm not aware of any economic or financial theory that would support this idea. Clearly, from the historical record, folks a...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

I can see this strategy working fine for most periods, but what if stocks lose money for a decade, like 2000-2009? When do you deplete your cash reserves? When do you replenish them? These are important details that are rarely provided by those espousing this strategy, probably because they often h...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1475

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

As noted above, valuations are not reliably mean reverting. Compared to their historic average, they can remain depressed or elevated for a very long time. In the U.S., they've been higher than the historic average almost constantly for 25 years and counting.
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

I can see this strategy working fine for most periods, but what if stocks lose money for a decade, like 2000-2009? When do you deplete your cash reserves? When do you replenish them? These are important details that are rarely provided by those espousing this strategy, probably because they often h...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 10955

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

I suppose it's not surprising, but has anyone questioned how they managed to absolutely trounce the TSM over a 20 year period? Was it through a superior allocation to specific asset classes, was it through stock picking, was it through market timing, etc.? They give broad sweeping views of this wit...
by willthrill81
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

I can see this strategy working fine for most periods, but what if stocks lose money for a decade, like 2000-2009? When do you deplete your cash reserves? When do you replenish them? These are important details that are rarely provided by those espousing this strategy, probably because they often h...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3758

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

Implicit to your argument is that Chinese firms will sell to Chinese customers, Indian firms to Indian customers, etc. I'm not entirely convinced as to how much that will actually happen....Firms from developed nations might capture the majority of the 'new growth' in these markets or at least enou...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire at age 40?
Replies: 130
Views: 11401

Re: Can I retire at age 40?

I came up with the 6% based off half of this https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/the-12-reality And finding other data that seemed to reflect 8/10 average per year on average over time. Definitely realize that there are terrible times in the market. We are probably heading into one sometime in the next...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If home prices decline but mortgage rates keep rising
Replies: 25
Views: 2664

Re: If home prices decline but mortgage rates keep rising

Aim to buy a house that you will live in for 10+ years. If you can do that, you can afford, generally, to ignore "noise". If you are not ready to make that commitment, it may be better to stay a renter. If I had a family my bias would be towards "buy". If single, towards "rent". Marriage first, and...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3758

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

We don't have to rely on forecasts of the next 30 year to get a sense of the future. We can also look back at the last thirty years and use our common sense about what is coming down the road. Since 1988, over 1 billion people worldwide have moved out of poverty (chart below). Yes, the vast majorit...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

Intriguingly, Paul Merriman says that 99% of investors should use a buy-and-hold approach even though he uses a trend following approach with 50% of his portfolio and has for decades. He reports having experienced similar returns with trend following as buy-and-hold over this period but with lower ...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:08 pm
Cash instead of bonds? What about the impact of inflation upon the cash?
If by "cash" one means "T-Bills" or something similar, then historically you're unlikely to lag inflation by more than 1%, usually less in most time periods.
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3758

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period,'...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5358

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

I can see this strategy working fine for most periods, but what if stocks lose money for a decade, like 2000-2009? When do you deplete your cash reserves? When do you replenish them? These are important details that are rarely provided by those espousing this strategy, probably because they often ha...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9799

Re: Regular 4% withdrawals can be ridiculous.

For one thing the IRS will not allow it (assuming tax deferred accounts) There is clearly a misunderstanding here. probably If reference is being made to RMDs, I would humbly remind everyone that none of those dollars must be spent beyond paying the necessary income tax, if any, on the RMDs. So you...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

I don't think it's that hard to figure out. He pretty much lays it out in the following paper: http://www.cambriainvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Trinity_DIGITAL_final.pdf As a brief summary, the paper outlines a strategy that allocates as follows: 50% - Buy and Hold (with Value and Momen...
by willthrill81
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9799

Re: Regular 4% withdrawals can be ridiculous.

Limiting withdrawals to 4% is obviously ridiculous when you are as old as I am (94). For one thing the IRS will not allow it (assuming tax deferred accounts) There is clearly a misunderstanding here. probably If reference is being made to RMDs, I would humbly remind everyone that none of those doll...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

Larry Swedroe advocates small and value tilts and has now come onboard with trend following as well, which is mostly what Meb advocates. That's the thing. I've been listening to Mab Faber's podcast for months and still have no idea what his actual strategy is. He seems to be all over the place with...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 10955

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

I suppose it's not surprising, but has anyone questioned how they managed to absolutely trounce the TSM over a 20 year period? Was it through a superior allocation to specific asset classes, was it through stock picking, was it through market timing, etc.? They give broad sweeping views of this with...