Search found 4144 matches

by willthrill81
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 10499

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

Reversion to the mean. It’s just that simple. If history shows 9-10% returns and recent returns are 2x -3x times that, you have to have a period of below average returns to get back to average. False. The concept of reversion to the mean is that by taking a larger sample size it will likely look mo...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

...Now, Dave of course recommends no bonds. But while he may give some borrower slave to lender nonsense why bonds aren't good... Just to be clear. When you own a bond, you are the lender and the bond issuer is the borrower. I understand you to say that Dave Ramsey objects to all loans , not just b...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Today the DOW is down 250, while gold is down and long term treasuries are up even though interest rates are going up. Over the last 9 years, the correlation between stocks and gold is .04 and between stocks and long treasuries is -0.47. Seems to me that if you want a diversifying asset for stocks ...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Except that the American Funds that he recommends have done quite well even after paying the loads. Certainly, indexing is hard to beat and Vanguard has cheaper and perhaps better alternatives even for active funds. Another area of disagreement is advising 100% stocks for investment accounts, way t...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

...One thing I've noticed about most discussions of the permanent portfolio is that they almost always get reduced to a discussion about the wisdom of holding gold in a portfolio, not whether the whole portfolio works or not... That's because, if you look at my chart, compared to a traditional port...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

He is getting a lot of people to clean up their debt and start investing. His 'show' is entertaining and uplifting. If his followers follow his advice and do active funds, most would be far better off than if they never ran into him to begin with. Except that the American Funds that he recommends h...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

What Ramsey describes, especially with regard to "Aggressive Growth" and "Growth and Income" were styles and names for funds I remember seeing as options in my 401k 20+ years ago. I figured he just never caught up with modern times, and naming conventions, and is stuck in a mindset that was probabl...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Why? 120K sounds excessive to get a degree in nursing. Are there not any community colleges in California? Is the young caller really going to get a better job with a $120,000 degree than a $15,000 degree? Umm, we are talking about a registered nursing degree, no community college is going to get y...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Where the trap is, if student takes a loan for years 1-2 and then does not complete school but is now saddled with $60K in student loans. I have a family member who took six or seven years to get a B.S. in an area with limited usefulness. This person now works for the USPS and is saddled with $30k ...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

He is getting a lot of people to clean up their debt and start investing. His 'show' is entertaining and uplifting. If his followers follow his advice and do active funds, most would be far better off than if they never ran into him to begin with. I agree that most will be better off. It's just sad...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

... Are these people better off than they would have been otherwise? Probably, but that's along the lines of what I've heard called the "better than nothing" fallacy. There can be a big gulf between "better than nothing" and adequate. DR's advice here is akin to throwing a person 200 miles offshore...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero
Replies: 40
Views: 4201

Re: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero

We must be vigilant of shell games from Fidelity and BlackRock which we do not own. They are going to raise ERs on all their index funds once we are locked in via capital gains. Shenanigans! Shenanigans! How's that going to work for those with most/all of their mutual fund assets in retirement acco...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Dave gets beat up a little too much on this forum in my opinion. If you follow his advice to the letter, by getting out of debt and investing your money you will get wealthy. Perhaps not as wealthy if you stayed in debt with low interest rate and invested the difference, perhaps not as wealthy as i...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:26 pm
I don't want this to be a Dave Ramsey bashing session
Image

It's awfully hard to separate one thing a person says from everything else they say.
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 97
Views: 12744

Re: The Power of Working Longer

I prefer to save more so that I have options when I am old. I could work longer if I want, I could retire earlier if I want or have to. Waiting until old to realize that I have to work longer is not a good idea. (There have been several similar threads recently, working vs. retiring.) :thumbsup Tha...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero
Replies: 40
Views: 4201

Re: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero

The ER on the S&P 500 index fund in my 457 plan is .003%. That rounds to zero. :P
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today

Indexing will assure that your investments will be in the top quartile of funds over time. Hold on long enough, your investments will be in the top 10% of funds. Pretty much a no brainer and you can do this without knowing in advance who will beat the market. I think that Ramsey and other stock-pic...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today

Indexing will assure that your investments will be in the top quartile of funds over time. Hold on long enough, your investments will be in the top 10% of funds. Pretty much a no brainer and you can do this without knowing in advance who will beat the market. I think that Ramsey and other stock-pic...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9845

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today

Indexing will assure that your investments will be in the top quartile of funds over time. Hold on long enough, your investments will be in the top 10% of funds. Pretty much a no brainer and you can do this without knowing in advance who will beat the market. I think that Ramsey and other stock-pic...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 97
Views: 12744

Re: The Power of Working Longer

Death is probably the single best hedge against running out of money in retirement. Solves all your problems, such as figuring out safe withdrawal rates and all that. Another advantage of working longer is that you're closer to it when you give up your earnings income. Makes you wonder why everybod...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement pros and cons:
Replies: 78
Views: 10063

Re: Early retirement pros and cons:

flyingaway wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:13 pm
If I truly have enough, I would retire at any time. Beach is much better than office.
Image
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

columbia wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:12 pm
Mixing one’s politics ( the seeming - and only - basis for owning gold) with investing doesn’t necessarily lead to an optimal outcome.
One can own gold for non-political reasons. See the Golden Butterly portfolio at Portfolio Charts for an example.
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Also, a relatively short-term recession shouldn't represent a real threat to early retirees as it alone does not constitute a poor sequence of returns. In fact, early retirees should know full well that they are likely to experience many recessions throughout the course of their retirement. Since t...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Subaccounts aside, I don't understand why you'd care about expenses in the specific case of fixed annuities. Do you care about the expenses for your savings account at Ally or Capital One? Definitely. If the Ally or Capital One was offered via a brokerage, and brokerage was tacking on a 1% fee. At ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

And of course, early retirees can likely reenter the workforce if they encounter a really poor sequence of returns with greater ease than someone in their 60s or 70s. Is it a good idea to plan on reentering the workforce during a severe market downturn, most probably caused by a deep recession? Let...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Maybe I am reading too much into it, but i do notice many poster advocating sub 2.5% because "valuations are high", "bonds yields are low", "healthcare is expensive", "you don't know what the future will bring, it may be different than the past", etc. But, you may be right that they are just descri...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Boundless energy is spent on this forum debating portfolio composition, yet most of the widely publicized portfolios have had remarkably similar long-term performance. Yes that's true, but it is all in the context of the 30-year bull market for bonds, which is not to be repeated anytime soon. If yo...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

We can all cherry-pick various timeframes to prove the superiority of one portfolio over another, so that's an endless argument. I agree with your statement above, but Will did completely refute your point made in #1 to me saying: "The advantage of the PP is completely attributable to the years 197...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

We can all cherry-pick various timeframes to prove the superiority of one portfolio over another, so that's an endless argument. Yes, the particular period I referenced was 'cherry picked', but that was done in order to make the point that the PP is not wholly reliant on the performance of gold in ...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151772

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

From my limited look at the PP it seems to do a good job of minimizing the downside and still gives and adequate (though lackluster) overall return. Putting a portfolio in to portfolio visualizer of: 25% US Stock, 25% short term treasury, 25% long term treasury, 25% gold with 4% withdrawals adjuste...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Taking on the risk of total ruin just to get smoother withdrawals (before ruin, in case of bad luck) would seems ill advised to me. We don't know what future markets will return. Smoothness can be bought: inflation-indexed SPIA and including bonds in one's portfolio. And, let's not forget the eleph...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Early Retire Now recently had a post discussing how a 4% withdrawal rate would have worked for 30 year retirements in every instance of American history examined with only two exceptions: 1929 and 1966 retirees. Did it fail only for people who retired only in those specific years, or for a range of...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Early Retire Now recently had a post discussing how a 4% withdrawal rate would have worked for 30 year retirements in every instance of American history examined with only two exceptions: 1929 and 1966 retirees. Did it fail only for people who retired only in those specific years, or for a range of...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Sadly, this view of comparing one's remaining life expectancy to one's forecasted retirement success rate is missing from most discussions of this topic. It's an uncomfortable thing to think about. "Life expectancy" is a 50/50 proposition. Keep in mind that, based on historical results, the margina...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just added bonds to portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 2944

Re: Just added bonds to portfolio

and Treasury bills and CDs are guaranteed, so there's no real need for diversity there. Since when are Treasury bills guaranteed by anyone? They are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government and are usually recognized as being a "risk free asset." Certainly they are considered to b...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

20% of your life vs 33% of your life that's a distinction without a difference. You are still exchanging a pretty hefty portion of your life away for a warm and fuzzy. You will never get to 100% certainty and the cost for getting from 95% certain to 98% certain is as large as it was getting from 0 ...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just added bonds to portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 2944

Re: Just added bonds to portfolio

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:58 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:25 pm
and Treasury bills and CDs are guaranteed, so there's no real need for diversity there.
Since when are Treasury bills guaranteed by anyone?
They are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government and are usually recognized as being a "risk free asset."
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Apart from bequest motives or truly unusual and extreme circumstances, I believe that a withdrawal rate below 3% is overly conservative, even by Boglehead standards. I'm starting to get confused by what people generally mean when they say a 3% withdrawal rate. Do they mean starting with 3% and then...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12670

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Based on the current status of the market, money currently in the TBM fund will yield 3% going forward. Over the course of the next ten years, this is very likely going to be the approximate annual return that you as an investor will get. Yes, if rates keep going up, the principal value of your bon...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just added bonds to portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 2944

Re: Just added bonds to portfolio

If it's safety and security that you really want from this portion of your portfolio, you might want to consider short-term bonds, Treasury bills, or CDs instead. I went with VBTLX total bond fund to avoid actively choosing certain bonds and fixed income sources, and cover the overall bond market i...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just added bonds to portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 2944

Re: Just added bonds to portfolio

Thanks for the replies guys! My main objective in doing this was because I like the idea of having a set plan with a set rebalancing shedule and target. Now that it's already been implemented, I'll be sticking to this plan for the foreseeable future. Our FIRE will be flexible, and we'll still be yo...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

If you put all of the money into 30 year TIPS, which have a current real yield of .94%, that would translate to a withdrawal rate of 3.01% over a 40 year period. Granted, you can't get 40 year TIPS, so there is some risk there, but assuming 0% real yields for 40 years is very, very conservative (or...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12670

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Based on the current status of the market, money currently in the TBM fund will yield 3% going forward. Over the course of the next ten years, this is very likely going to be the approximate annual return that you as an investor will get. Yes, if rates keep going up, the principal value of your bon...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

If you put all of the money into 30 year TIPS, which have a current real yield of .94%, that would translate to a withdrawal rate of 3.01% over a 40 year period. Granted, you can't get 40 year TIPS, so there is some risk there, but assuming 0% real yields for 40 years is very, very conservative (or...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Please show me the data the supports your 2.5% statement. It isn't based on historical data, it's based on being able to last for 40 years (the expected time I'll be in retirement, age 45 to 85) with 0% real return. Of course I might die at 50, or we might have positive real returns over the next 5...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

My question is why does anyone treat their yearly expenses as a fixed amount? This was originally done for the purposes of modeling spending in retirement to determine such things as the safe withdrawal rate. It is more complicated to model flexible withdrawals, but modern software is capable of do...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

My question is why does anyone treat their yearly expenses as a fixed amount? This was originally done for the purposes of modeling spending in retirement to determine such things as the safe withdrawal rate. It is more complicated to model flexible withdrawals, but modern software is capable of do...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

My question is why does anyone treat their yearly expenses as a fixed amount? This was originally done for the purposes of modeling spending in retirement to determine such things as the safe withdrawal rate. It is more complicated to model flexible withdrawals, but modern software is capable of do...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

This article I came across fits the thread: https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/the-biggest-risks-of-the-4-percent-retirement-rule I'm not advocating this approach, but I was sort of amused by the setup to the story: "She was surprised when I told her we have more money now than we d...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17965

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

4% rule is risky business, at least for someone looking to retire a little early. I'm planning to use the 2.5% rule when I retire, with no SS or pension factored in. Please show me the data the supports your 2.5% statement. You can justify 3.5% or something nearby with data. Search for "perpetual w...