Search found 2346 matches

by willthrill81
Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

I'm not concerned about the investors who, for instance, thought they were 'buy-and-hold' investors and yet sold in early 2009 and never reentered the market. Such investors likely experienced a much lower annualized return than what you specify. ... Conversely, it is well known that many strategie...
by willthrill81
Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

Your logic cuts both ways. What if the last decade of your accumulation phase turned out to be a repeat of 2000-2009, when VTSMX had an annualized return of -.27%? Why risk that? By comparison, had you used the above 200 DMA strategy with TSM and TBM, you would have had an annualized return of 8.61...
by willthrill81
Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

If we had a crystal ball and could check out which algorithm with what parameters would be doing best we could just pick that and be set! "The enemy of good is perfect." No a priori strategy will always work perfectly. That doesn't mean that long used indicators like the 200 DMA haven't worked and ...
by willthrill81
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

There is a genuine risk to being different than the market. When your annoying neighbor is bragging about how great the market is doing, and you are sitting on a loss, there aren't a lot of people who can stomach that for very long. And that's where a lot expected return models fail to be useful in...
by willthrill81
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

Thanks to everyone for the replies. Definitely does seem like a balanced portfolio like the 3-fund avoids excessive risk from any one asset class and avoids introducing unique risk from human error. Veiled, I think you have capitulated too soon. Are you reading any of the behavioral economics books...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

veggivet wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:50 pm
Isn't it common knowledge that Bitcoin will crash on February 28, 2018, at 2:38 EST?
You know something that the market doesn't? :wink:
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

Do you really have what it takes to determine which of the hundreds of market valuation metrics to pick? Remember they may be based on data-mining. How will you determine it is producing incorrect results and you need to adjust its parameters or pick another formula? Myself? Definitely, definitely ...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

In short, my question is: could automated tactical adjustment be useful? I'd get a stabler portfolio performance, I wouldn't screw up market timing by forgetfulness, fear, or greed, and I don't have to spend a lot of time thinking about it. I understand this is market timing, but would market timin...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

I especially like that you said "the appeal of market timing mechanisms such as moving average or momentum rotation is not in their ability to yield higher returns than buy-and-hold: it's in their ability to reduce downside risk." That's what I think is beneficial, too. And I know the backtesting c...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 1576

Re: Automated Market Timing

CAPE has repeatedly been shown to be a very poor market timing indicator. Simple moving averages, like the 200 DMA, have proven themselves to be very effective for the last 50 years at least. See Feldman et al. (2015, Journal of Portfolio Management) for a detailed analysis of this. For me, the appe...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Nobody know nuthin’. Predictions of the exact time frame of the next crash (Bitcoin or anything else) are worthless. +1 I find it highly amusing that many on this forum love to spout about the folly of active investing and trying to time the market, but then in the next breath they call Bitcoin and...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 2526

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

WCI’s analysis is based on Roth vs. Taxable. For many investors Roth acconts are a small subset of their tax advantaged accounts. The same analysis based on 401k vs. Taxable would show that bonds belong to the 401k Read his reply to comments made to that effect. I posted them above. The outcome is ...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Keep in mind interest income produced by a CD is taxed as regular income, while income from Wellesley is mostly taxed as a long-term capital gain. That's a big difference if you're in the top tax bracket. Wellesley is roughly two-thirds in bonds, and much of the income they throw off is not 'qualif...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 2526

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

My point is that people think they need to create taxable space for stocks and that stocks should only be held in taxable accounts. That was the premise of the original post. I'm saying that premise is incorrect. I also wish the wiki information reflected that. On that point we can wholeheartedly a...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 2526

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

The advice to put stocks, rather than bonds, into taxable accounts come straight from the Wiki . I agree many people get that message from the Wiki, but they are missing the fact that filling your tax-advantaged accounts first is a goal of higher importance. It is stated in the Wiki, but people are...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Agreed! That's why I posed this question. Plus I own a lot of Wellesley myself, so I'm comfortable with it. But as Nisi said, unless I'm willing to make up any losses due to it not performing as it has for the past 47 years, I should just leave it at CDs. No sense stressing him out. I forget someti...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 2526

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

I'm beginning to question the rule of thumb that stocks should always be in taxable account. There is no such rule of thumb. I don't know where people are getting this idea...you are certainly not the first. If it is from our Wiki page, it needs to be edited. The rule of thumb is more like... "Fill...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Keep in mind interest income produced by a CD is taxed as regular income, while income from Wellesley is mostly taxed as a long-term capital gain. That's a big difference if you're in the top tax bracket. Wellesley is roughly two-thirds in bonds, and much of the income they throw off is not 'qualif...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Keep in mind interest income produced by a CD is taxed as regular income, while income from Wellesley is mostly taxed as a long-term capital gain. That's a big difference if you're in the top tax bracket. Wellesley is roughly two-thirds in bonds, and much of the income they throw off is not 'qualif...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Any thoughts on something like 60 pct cd and 40 pct Wellesley? I would be totally comfortable with that mix for myself and for him, but having briefly spoken with him today, he was nervous about the thought of fluctuating principal. Unless he changes his mind, CDs will have to do. Thank you for you...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

CDs may indeed be best for him if any unrealized loss before the five years are expired would cause him to panic and blame you. That being said, I'm a strong 'believer' in Wellesley for many reasons. With regard to the situation at hand, it's never had a five year period in its 47 year history wher...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

CDs may indeed be best for him if any unrealized loss before the five years are expired would cause him to panic and blame you. That being said, I'm a strong 'believer' in Wellesley for many reasons. With regard to the situation at hand, it's never had a five year period in its 47 year history wher...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?
Replies: 51
Views: 3751

Re: Which is better: Wellesley or 5-yr 2.5% CD?

Everyone, thank you so much for your thoughts, feedback, and suggestions. After reading all your posts, I think CDs are my friend's best bet. I just wanted to help him get more for his money—but I guess it's not as sure a bet as I'd thought. Probably better to keep things simple. I greatly apprecia...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

See the November 30 plots here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/bitcoin-dwarfing-some-of-the-largest-market-bubbles-of-all-time.html Given the bitcoin run-up since Nov 30, I'd say it's now bigger than the Mississippi Company bubble by the measure used in that link. Note that the information to quan...
by willthrill81
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4116

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

I'm close to a total bitcoin skeptic, but I think that it is a very bad mental habit to use language like "when bitcoin blows up." We don't know that it will. And even if it does, we don't know when, or how much more it will grow before it does. I realize that "when" is just shorthand, but if your ...
by willthrill81
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate from SPIA???
Replies: 41
Views: 2413

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate from SPIA???

Many studies indicate that spending decreases over time. (ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2016/08/09/retirement-spending-increases-and-decreases-over-time) Why assume a need for a CPI adjustment on the SPIA, or a "man-made" one in your scenario? I realize that is the thing to do when pla...
by willthrill81
Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 93
Views: 15029

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

Ok, it is over 11'000$ now. Selling Bitcoin gains and moving to indices might be a good move. Some believe that the price could be $1M in a few years. Nobody knows. That is extremely, extremely naive and akin to greater fool theory... ...I will still be keeping a stash of coins just in case :shareb...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 2771

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

Actually, if society were to migrate, it might very much make sense as an investment. Why? Because there is a fixed supply of Bitcoin. That means if society's economy is growing, Bitcoin's value will grow with it. Ironically, this is probably one of the things that will be problematic for its wide ...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 93
Views: 15029

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

But the problem is it's an asset with no intrinsic way of valuing it. And that means it is prone to bubbles (over and under). Gold has many of the same issues (no intrinsic value), and yet people still like it as a store of value. I expect a similar group of people will find BitCoin attractive once...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 93
Views: 15029

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

Vision wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:56 pm
Ok, it is over 11'000$ now.

Selling Bitcoin gains and moving to indices might be a good move.
Some believe that the price could be $1M in a few years. Nobody knows.
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1922

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

...... There's nothing special about TDFs. That depends how you define "special." As noted, TD funds were created for the average investor. Their specialness (specialty?) lies in their automatically changing asset allocation as one approaches retirement. AKA the glide path. In theory, this reduces ...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1922

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

Target date prevent tinkering by the individual. TDFs are no less susceptible to investors' abandoning their strategy than any other fund. A TDF with 90% in equities is no less volatile than any other portfolio with 90% in equities. Cost is negligible. That's a mixed bag. The ER of most TDFs is hig...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1922

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

I agree with Pfau in that TDFs have been primarily designed for those with no interest in managing their investments. They want one fund that does it all, and most TDFs achieve this fairly well. My problems with TDFs are that (1) based on long-term historical data, I (and others, including Paul Merr...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcasts for Bogleheads?
Replies: 14
Views: 2042

Re: Podcasts for Bogleheads?

I like, in no particular order, Stacking Benjamins, Money For the Rest of Us, the Dough Roller Money Podcast, Radical Personal Finance, Afford Anything, Pete the Planner, Financial Mentor, and Paul Merriman.
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 11777

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

The majority of my non-equity holdings are in TIAA traditional RC, which is paying 4.25% these days. That holding addresses (for me and for that portion of my money) the concerns expressed directly above. +1 I think that those with access to such stable value funds (I do as well) are generally very...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 11777

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

If Larry Swedroe were still here, I think that he would make a compelling argument that an investor can put all of their FI into CDs and do perfectly fine. Bonds can be useful, but they are not the only FI investment out there, nor are they necessary for all investors or even all retirees. Personall...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 145
Views: 14486

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

I doubt you're going to convince him, and it may just annoy him since it's unsolicited. His perspective is off though. He doesn't have 10K in Bitcoin anymore. He has $1M. Every day, he is making the decision of whether he wants to have $1M (or whatever the current valuation is) invested in Bitcoin....
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11138

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

You are arguing that they should be valued based on what you would pay for them, while aj76er says you should claim them based on the money you can extract from them. This is an interesting situation because the difference between these two numbers will become very significant as the holding period...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA: "Pay out of pocket" vs Withdraw math problem
Replies: 48
Views: 3289

Re: HSA: "Pay out of pocket" vs Withdraw math problem

I think you are still not getting it. The expenses have already been paid. You don't have to pay them again. If you paid out of pocket in the past, when you take the money out you *CAN* use if for anything you want. Yes, you can buy a motorcycle. #3 is definitely different from #1. How is paying yo...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA: "Pay out of pocket" vs Withdraw math problem
Replies: 48
Views: 3289

Re: HSA: "Pay out of pocket" vs Withdraw math problem

I simply view the HSA as an IRA. I’m 31 years old...the prospects of my wife and I hoarding receipts for 34 years just doesn’t seem realistic. What constitutes keeping a receipt? Would a check image to a doctor count with a matching EOB? That’s easier to produce as I can go and download everything ...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA: "Pay out of pocket" vs Withdraw math problem
Replies: 48
Views: 3289

Re: HSA: "Pay out of pocket" vs Withdraw math problem

Things reverse if you die with a large balance and no spouse, causing a taxable account to be better than an HSA in that case. An HSA becomes instantly fully taxable upon death, whereas a taxable account gets stepped-up with no income tax. That's true, but it will be difficult for most to build up ...
by willthrill81
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11138

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

You are arguing that they should be valued based on what you would pay for them, while aj76er says you should claim them based on the money you can extract from them. This is an interesting situation because the difference between these two numbers will become very significant as the holding period...
by willthrill81
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 183
Views: 37306

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Like most of the market timing stategies this one worked in the previous bear markets, those that did not are not discussed anywhere. But what if the next downturn is different ? In a hypothetical example, if a stategy does well in 4 out if 5 next market crashes, but the one it fails is the first o...
by willthrill81
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13782

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Is there a study or white paper showing a portfolio of 70% stocks and 30% bonds, produces 90% of the 100% stock return and exactly how much less volatility? From Portfolio Visualizer: Blue is 100% VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock) and Red is 70% VTSMX/30% VBMFX (Vanguard Total Bond). http://i68.tinypic....
by willthrill81
Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13782

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Even if one resists the prospect of holding bonds with zero real returns, what is the alternative for a diversified portfolio? Hold stocks instead! :wink: For those who want to dampen the volatility of an otherwise all stock portfolio, bonds may be their only choice. But some of us have access to s...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Checking your assets' performance once a month for a few minutes at most isn't a major time commitment. But well into retirement, you might want someone else to do this for you. Paul Merriman has used market timing successfully (he uses it primarily to minimize downside risk, not as an attempt to o...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 14961

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Here is what I came up with: 1) The 4% rule is not a rule but a guideline. 2) Some people are insecure with the 4% guideline and are willing to decrease their guideline to something lower through working longer. 3) No one is a robot and therefor spending will vary over the years. 4) Anyone who has ...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA Contributions: Still make sense for us?
Replies: 13
Views: 1116

Re: Roth IRA Contributions: Still make sense for us?

rkhusky wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:24 pm
It is always better than taxable.
+1

I think that some people lose sight of that.
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I guess the main point in my reply to Random Walker is that with all of the buying and selling requisite to achieving certain factors, it is not as was described—it’s market timing of a sort, and not passive. I wasn’t suggesting that a market timing approach couldn’t be used successfully in some in...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 14961

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Those considering a withdrawal rate less than 3% would probably be well served to floor their income with a SPIA paying 4.5%, in addition to SS, and then implementing a higher withdrawal rate for the remainder of their portfolio. Otar considers this decision in his book. The gist of the comment is ...