Search found 2209 matches

by willthrill81
Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 133
Views: 30893

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

I believe in Bill Bernstein advice, : When you’ve won the game, stop playing. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-tell-if-your-retirement-nest-egg-is-big-enough-1421726456 If you wanted to have only one fund in retirement (take out 3% a year) would it be Wellesley? Paul I don't really care for that...
by willthrill81
Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 133
Views: 30893

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

I believe in Bill Bernstein advice, : When you’ve won the game, stop playing. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-tell-if-your-retirement-nest-egg-is-big-enough-1421726456 If you wanted to have only one fund in retirement (take out 3% a year) would it be Wellesley? Paul I don't really care for that...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 133
Views: 30893

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

willthrill81 wrote: The idea that bonds have been in a long bull market is, to the best of my knowledge, false. The long-run performance of bonds (10 years or more) is determined almost entirely by bond yields, which were far better 30 years ago than now. A bond holder would rather be earning 10% t...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 133
Views: 30893

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Wellesley has been a great fund in terms of risk adjusted returns for a very long time. Like all other strategies, however, its returns are period dependent. A 60 bond/40 stock portfolio does quite well in an environment of ever decreasing interest rates which we had for the 34 years of 1982 - 2016...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 133
Views: 30893

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

bob_m10 wrote:
Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:53 am
Interesting post on Wellesley. Curious does the bond allocation of Wellesley hold anything in TIPS? Bob
To my knowledge, no.
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone own a home and drop insurance coverage after mortgage paid off?
Replies: 36
Views: 2382

Re: Anyone own a home and drop insurance coverage after mortgage paid off?

No, horrible idea. First of all, your "A" Coverage if you get replacement cost coverage, is the cost to rebuild. How many SF is your house? I wouldn't unequivocally call it a "horrible idea." Some people have the means to self-insure. If your home comprises 5% or less of your net worth, for instanc...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone own a home and drop insurance coverage after mortgage paid off?
Replies: 36
Views: 2382

Re: Anyone own a home and drop insurance coverage after mortgage paid off?

Wondering if anyone here has experience (positive or negative) with getting rid of their homeowners policy completely after they paid off their mortgage. Does it make sense to essentially self insure if one can afford it? The vast majority of the value of my property is in the land. I have to pay h...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone own a home and drop insurance coverage after mortgage paid off?
Replies: 36
Views: 2382

Re: Anyone own a home and drop insurance coverage after mortgage paid off?

Wondering if anyone here has experience (positive or negative) with getting rid of their homeowners policy completely after they paid off their mortgage. Does it make sense to essentially self insure if one can afford it? The vast majority of the value of my property is in the land. I have to pay h...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2875

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

From a mathematical perspective, risk almost always includes the upside as well as the downside. This is because when only considering the downside, it is almost impossible to compute anything. Even unknown unknowns have probability distributions. These are, for example, the long tails of stock vol...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2875

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

Risk in most contexts is a potential negative outcome, ... That's where the problem lies. Investers think of risk as losing money. But statistictions this of risk in terms of standard deviation which is both plus and minus. We all need to keep the distinction in mind. Precisely. For instance, the h...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2875

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

Far too many, IMHO, equate volatility with risk, which I believe are quite different. For instance, if I have a high degree of confidence that a long-term investment will earn an approximate rate of return, volatility between the time of investment and the time I need the money is irrelevant. Conver...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are long-term market returns reliable?
Replies: 38
Views: 4039

Re: The myth about long-run stock returns

I'm guessing the OP has never read Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run," where the author demonstrates that over periods 17 years and longer, stocks have always had a higher real return than the bond market. There have only been two 30 year periods where long-term bonds beat stocks, but few investors ...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off debt vs. max savings
Replies: 53
Views: 5721

Re: Paying off debt vs. max savings

Far more people have been hurt by debt than helped by it? I guess the hundreds of millions of Americans who buy houses with debt, go to school with loans, buy a car with a loan, or use credit cards should think twice then about using them, lol. Foolish idea. Many people could not even get a job if ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Ok.I read their budget.They live in a LCOL area and have no mortgage so it all makes sense.I see that he makes money off his blog and consults so not really retired,but no big deal.Really is not that difficult to execute that budget if they choose to live that way.They actually live a normal life b...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

P.S: Never mind, I found this figure...The Federal poverty level is $28,780 for a family of 5. So, they are living barely above poverty level in retirement, which they chose in their early 30's. Yes, they are choosing to live a life of poverty (and choosing to force their kids to be brought up in p...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

P.S: Never mind, I found this figure...The Federal poverty level is $28,780 for a family of 5. So, they are living barely above poverty level in retirement, which they chose in their early 30's. Yes, they are choosing to live a life of poverty (and choosing to force their kids to be brought up in p...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

I wonder how much a family of 5 on welfare/social assistance, including Medicaid dental and health coverage get a year? I know there is qualification requirements, circumstances etc. and obviously not a financial plan... it, for those unfortunate who are in that predicament, I wonder how much they ...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

I would assume that those retiring at 35 had some sort of financial windfall event. Sold a business or received an inheritance. Or perhaps received an injury settlement. I can't imagine being able to "save" your way to retirement at age 35. This guy did it by age 33 with three small kids and almost...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally savings rate raised to 1.20%
Replies: 41
Views: 5456

Re: Ally savings rate raised to 1.20%

I just don't understand why people are so concerned with a little term risk in their "savings" and yet are perfectly fine with having 50% or more of their portfolio in equities. I don't either. That's why roughly two-thirds of my EF is invested in Wellesley Income. I've been very happy with this de...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

The following table gives an idea how hard it would be for a worker to retire at age 35. Assuming he starts at age 25, in order to have enough money at age 35 to last until age 100, each period for ten years he'd need to save from 588% to 107% of his desired retirement spending... I would assume th...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

The following table gives an idea how hard it would be for a worker to retire at age 35. Assuming he starts at age 25, in order to have enough money at age 35 to last until age 100, each period for ten years he'd need to save from 588% to 107% of his desired retirement spending... I would assume th...
by willthrill81
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income: Percentage Of Portfolio Or Specific $ Amount?
Replies: 19
Views: 2011

Re: Fixed Income: Percentage Of Portfolio Or Specific $ Amount?

When I looked at this question before, I thought I had understood it then, but now I am not sure I did. Why would one have a target % instead of a set dollar amount in fixed income? Say an investor has $1MM with 50% in fixed income, that is $500K in fixed income. When portfolio is $2MM, fixed incom...
by willthrill81
Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

If someone wants to "retire" at 35 I think you better have so much money that you do not have to think about any plans. That's virtually impossible for a 35 year old unless they inherited a lot of money or had a ridiculously successful business. Early retirees often have to make the most plans. My ...
by willthrill81
Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

hoops777 wrote:
Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:25 pm
If someone wants to "retire" at 35 I think you better have so much money that you do not have to think about any plans.
That's virtually impossible for a 35 year old unless they inherited a lot of money or had a ridiculously successful business. Early retirees often have to make the most plans.
by willthrill81
Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

I finally got a chance to listen to it, and I enjoyed it too. One question. Is it 4% of the amount you have the year you start the withdrawals, and you withdraw that amount every year regardless of the account balance. Or do you withdraw 4% of the balance of the portfolio as it goes up and down yea...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

What if the 85 year old lives to a 100 and then dies today? Apart from long-term care issues, which are tangential to the discussion here, the heirs would certainly have more than if the retiree was all fixed income for 15 years. Nothing is guaranteed, and all roads carry risk. That's my point. Som...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Centuries of Asset Returns, 1694-2015
Replies: 35
Views: 4268

Re: Three Centuries of Asset Returns, 1694-2015

Over the investment lifetimes even of most families, stocks just are not reliable. That depends greatly on your definition of "reliable." While it's certainly not 300 years old, the 10th percentile of S&P 500 returns has been 4.44%, while the 90th percentile has been 8.72%. Some might say that's fa...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

As people age, for instance, they may reevaluate their buckets. For instance, it may not make as much as sense to have a full decade of spending in fixed income for an 85 year old considering that would easily cover than their remaining life expectancy (roughly six years). Oh really. Then what shou...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Yes, as with all forms of mental accounting, it can have you approach the same numbers differently and each approach may work better for a given individual. For some, they feel better when they can say they are 100% in stocks above a safe floor while other feel better with the same numbers when the...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

As people age, for instance, they may reevaluate their buckets. For instance, it may not make as much as sense to have a full decade of spending in fixed income for an 85 year old considering that would easily cover than their remaining life expectancy (roughly six years). Oh really. Then what shou...
by willthrill81
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

P.S: the problems with buckets in the traditional sense, is when some considers it to be superior...having non-volatile bucket for immediate spending etc. and saying that's a better strategy....nothing superior about it vs overall portfolio having the same mix of asset "types". True that in the end...
by willthrill81
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

P.S: the problems with buckets in the traditional sense, is when some considers it to be superior...having non-volatile bucket for immediate spending etc. and saying that's a better strategy....nothing superior about it vs overall portfolio having the same mix of asset "types". True that in the end...
by willthrill81
Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Centuries of Asset Returns, 1694-2015
Replies: 35
Views: 4268

Re: Three Centuries of Asset Returns, 1694-2015

But 300 years only gives us ten non-overlapping 30 year periods. :wink:
by willthrill81
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 4179

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

floor can SWAN much better than SWR...Floor relies on the full faith and credit of the United states government and SWR relies on our future stock markets not doing worse than the past...for me personally, I'll SWAN much better with floor. SPIA, at age 80 along with SS should fall within the state ...
by willthrill81
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 4179

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

Why place so much focus on a fixed income throughout one's entire retirement? We've all dealt with variable incomes throughout our careers; why suddenly demand zero volatility in one's income during retirement? I've dealt with variable incomes throughout my career, but my spending has been fairly s...
by willthrill81
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Isn't the whole concept of a "side portfolio", like "buckets", just a way of fooling yourself into taking a lower SWR (because you're not recognizing a portion of your total portfolio value)? It may be. I have never understood the bucket strategy, but I know that many people do use it because it he...
by willthrill81
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 4179

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

What happens during a significant market decline? You don't have to do anything. Single person withdrawing at 4.22% and a couple withdrawing at 3.44%, will both prabably adjust their spending down. This to me is the biggest advantage of TIPS + SPIA Spending adjustments with SWR is not a solution, i...
by willthrill81
Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 4179

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

What happens during a significant market decline? You don't have to do anything. Single person withdrawing at 4.22% and a couple withdrawing at 3.44%, will both prabably adjust their spending down. This to me is the biggest advantage of TIPS + SPIA Spending adjustments with SWR is not a solution, i...
by willthrill81
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 4179

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

What happens during a significant market decline? You don't have to do anything. Single person withdrawing at 4.22% and a couple withdrawing at 3.44%, will both prabably adjust their spending down. This to me is the biggest advantage of TIPS + SPIA Spending adjustments with SWR is not a solution, i...
by willthrill81
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 4179

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

I looked into getting the same $10,000 of yearly CPI COLA income without doing the TIPS ladder and found a couple would have to pay $295K for a SIPA. This is very similar to your annuity +TIPS ladder. For the sake of simplicity, wouldn't just buying a SPIA better? Arguably, yes. I wanted to account...
by willthrill81
Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments
Replies: 62
Views: 6410

Re: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:42 pm
hoops777 wrote:
Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:20 pm
Those sophisticated investors might change their tune when a prolonged bear market comes and they have a mortgage to pay.
What does a bear market have to do with your mortgage?
Job losses, especially in certain sectors, often coincide with prolonged bear markets.
by willthrill81
Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments
Replies: 62
Views: 6410

Re: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments

Those sophisticated investors might change their tune when a prolonged bear market comes and they have a mortgage to pay.I get so tired of hearing about the emotional benefit of paying off a house but how stupid it is fiancially.Just keep hoping that this crazy market is going to last forever.Not t...
by willthrill81
Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments
Replies: 62
Views: 6410

Re: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments

I have friends that think the same way. But they forget about the other cost of owning a larger house. The interest on the loan is enough to cry. Most people don't look at the cost of the interest they are paying. No matter how low. They look at monthly payment. Higher taxes Higher electric bill Hi...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

It seems to me that 4% is a fairly simple rule of thumb for a conservative investor that wants a number that will work no matter what. It has been tested even in the worst case scenarios, with high CAPE, right before the 1929 crash, etc. As far as I can tell, the bigger risk with 4% is having left ...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Death of Buy and Hold
Replies: 31
Views: 5767

Re: The Death of Buy and Hold

"For the period of December 31, 1999 through December 31, 2009, the S&P 500 index had an annualized simple price return of -2.72%. When dividends are factored in, the results do not get much better as annualized total return for the S&P 500 index (with dividends reinvested back into the index) over...
by willthrill81
Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3239

Re: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan

If you want a great 'sleep well at night' plan and simplicity, then why not just go with a version of the Larry Portfolio like this: 15% SCV, 15% int'l SC, and 70% ITT? The worst year in living memory was -1.74%, and the worst drawdown was -12%, yet there are still enough equities to provide good in...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3239

Re: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan

<snip...>... My older brother had all his 3 sons graduated and started their careers. He passed his full physical exam with no problem. Then, he fainted in the bathroom. They found an inoperable brain tumor in his head. He died 6 months later. Man plan, God laughs! KlangFool There are only so many ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3239

Re: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan

If someone is basing their 'number' on an already conservative withdrawal rate like 4%, why should they keep working another five years after they reach this number? They want insurance on top of insurance? Maybe they enjoy their work. I never really had a number. When I got close to thinking I was...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 35998

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Once you make it to say age 60, your chances of reaching higher age is much higher than how it's represented in the chart. This is my biggest problem with the mortality part of the graph. My biggest problem is outliers; or rather, outlivers . Victoria For those with such concerns, per Kitces, the s...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3239

Re: OSWAN: Optimum Sleep Well At Night retirement plan

If someone is basing their 'number' on an already conservative withdrawal rate like 4%, why should they keep working another five years after they reach this number? They want insurance on top of insurance? #4 and #5 make sense to me. Rebalancing, in certain asset classes, would have significantly l...