Search found 3274 matches

by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Atlantic Article: This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like
Replies: 26
Views: 3679

Re: Atlantic Article: This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like

Not everyone takes responsibility for their future, it seems. Hard for some of us to imagine but this has been going on for a while now and will most likely continue. Oh well... It's sad but true. The quote from the article to the effect of "You just don't think about tomorrow" is hard for me to co...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?
Replies: 84
Views: 9009

Re: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?

FiveK wrote:
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:42 pm
If contribution and withdrawal marginal rates are close, it makes little practical difference which one chooses.
If there isn't a significant tax arbitrage opportunity, I'd lean toward the Roth due to the lack of RMDs and favorable tax treatment for heirs.
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

I don't see how 1% SWR could fail. I think consuming the dividend rate is convenient because it balances growth and consumption, while being optimally responsive to shifts in real market conditions. I believe the 1.78% dividend rate today indicates a realistic sober expectation of future sustainabl...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

getrichslowly wrote:
Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:34 pm
I believe the 1.78% dividend rate today indicates a realistic sober expectation of future sustainable SWR given high valuations.
Have you seen or done any historical analysis as to then current dividend yields and the SWR for the following 30 years?
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 1317

Re: Risk Parity Investing

One poster here once said that a "poor man's" risk-parity portfolio is just a bond-heavy one. There's some truth in that I think.

For those looking for such a fund, Vanguard's Wellesley and the new Global Wellesley funds are worth a long look.
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?
Replies: 84
Views: 9009

Re: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?

Reviving this theead because I listen to Dave Ramsey to stay grounded. I have no debt and save over 25% for retirement mostly into traditional. Yesterday he told every single person to save for retirement in a roth. Even people with almost NO 401k savings at age 52. This is completely wrong based o...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draw Down Plan - Stanford Longevity Report
Replies: 11
Views: 713

Re: Stanford papers on retirement withdrawal strategies

Not sure I agree with you. The withdrawal percentages required do increase over time. However, those percentages are designed to decumulate that pot of money because Uncle Sam wants his tax dollars. Thus, the withdrawal percentage does increase over time but over that time span the pot of money is ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draw Down Plan - Stanford Longevity Report
Replies: 11
Views: 713

Re: Stanford papers on retirement withdrawal strategies

I saw this article in Marketwatch, describing a Stanford study on optimal retirement withdrawals. The short answer is to use savings to delay SS until age 70, and then use RMDs for discretionary spending. That's a perfectly plausible strategy. However, like many withdrawal strategies, it 'back load...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 149
Views: 13386

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

I retired in 2014, a few months before turning 57. Like many have mentioned here, I was faced with bridging the years prior to starting social security. I based my withdrawal amount on my current standard of living at the time of retirement - took my pre-retirement budget and adjusted it to take ou...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

I don't think those numbers are right. It doesn't take an additional 10 years to grow your assets by 32%. That assumes a mere 2.8% growth rate, not even counting savings contributions. Assuming you started work at 25 and took 30 years to save to 4% SWR at 55, then assuming you got a modest 5% real ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

If you try to sell more bonds (increase supply) the price will drop (interest rates higher) unless there is an increase in demand. Larry didn’t say rates go up because of debt, he said they increase pressure on the rates (increase supply lowers rates). That’s a pretty much Econ 101 thing and not pa...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

Frankly, if it weren't for the platform risk, I'd invest considerably more than I do in P2P notes (they are currently less than 4% of my portfolio) because the returns are good and stable. Even so, I might eventually bump this up to 10% of my portfolio. Once I gain accredited investor status, I'll ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

I don't think those numbers are right. It doesn't take an additional 10 years to grow your assets by 32%. That assumes a mere 2.8% growth rate, not even counting savings contributions. Assuming you started work at 25 and took 30 years to save to 4% SWR at 55, then assuming you got a modest 5% real ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

I just invest in P2P notes directly myself. It's easy to invest in hundreds or thousands of notes, giving you plenty of diversification. I would be interested where you are doing this, and if it is a retirement account or taxable. I'm currently investing with Lending Club and have been since 2013. ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

I think it’s fair to say he’s in the business of helping his firm make money and himself a living. Larry has never once come across to me as a sleazy salesman trying to peddle investments. While he was posting on this forum over a period of years, he only picked up two or three clients. He isn't do...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold
Replies: 7
Views: 624

Re: Buy and Hold

When Bogleheads talk about buy-and-hold, they're referring to index funds holding hundreds or thousands of firms. When you're holding individual stocks, you've already made the decision to take on an active bet, so that ship has already sailed.

I'd sell it and move into a broad, low cost index fund.
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-what-investors-should-worry-about?nopaging=1 […] I think it’s fair to say he’s in the business of helping build robust investor portfolios that can withstand the wide variety of outcomes predicted by many individuals. … I think it’s fair to ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds
Replies: 67
Views: 6321

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds

Yes, I should have said "was." However, I don't know of any experts who believe that bonds will outperform stocks for the next 40 years. And Vanguard's portfolio models indicate that 100/0 outperformed 90/10 since 1926. Stocks outperforming bonds doesn't automatically imply 100/0 outperforms 90/10....
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

Of course, there is the irony for the investor who needs higher returns, that in the face of lower expected returns he might have to actually increase equity allocation to meet his goals and suffer consequences that risk actually shows up. While he was still posting here last year, Larry was actual...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

Interesting that the article mentions $155 expected earnings for the S&P 500 for 2018 (equivalent to a P/E of just over 17 at today's level), but still can't let go of the focus on CAPE 10 valuations. I would rather focus on what is happening in 2018 instead of what happened five to ten years ago. ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

If my portfolio can give off 100,000 a year in dividends, I don't see the point in selling off my principal. If you have a sizeable portfolio, living off dividends and muni bond interest in retirement seems to be a far better idea then selling off principal. I want to leave money when I die. If you...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 149
Views: 13386

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

If the numbers happen to work for you,the easiest method is only taking your RMD’s and living on those along with your SS.I feel fortunate that it works perfectly for us because it is so simple. Spending only RMDs is definitely a plausible approach, but it is a very conservative one. Also, it leads...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

I don't think those numbers are right. It doesn't take an additional 10 years to grow your assets by 32%. That assumes a mere 2.8% growth rate, not even counting savings contributions. Assuming you started work at 25 and took 30 years to save to 4% SWR at 55, then assuming you got a modest 5% real ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

Remember that your capital (not principal, different term) should be viewed in terms of dollars, not shares . I believe this confusion is the primary reason that the 'spend only dividends' argument makes sense to some. Shares are irrelevant; dollars are what it's all about. If I buy an investment f...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-what-investors-should-worry-about?nopaging=1 […] I think it’s fair to say he’s in the business of helping build robust investor portfolios that can withstand the wide variety of outcomes predicted by many individuals. … I think it’s fair to ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

If my portfolio can give off 100,000 a year in dividends, I don't see the point in selling off my principal. If you have a sizeable portfolio, living off dividends and muni bond interest in retirement seems to be a far better idea then selling off principal. I want to leave money when I die. If you...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2739

Selling stocks in a downturn?

In a similar vein, I wonder what people mean precisely when they mean that they don't want to sell stocks in a downturn. Let's say that I put $100 into an index fund. It subsequently appreciates to $200, but then it drops to $150. Should I not sell now because the fund is off the peak? Should I only...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does using the trend in a higher timeframe give you a statistical advantage in a lower timeframe.
Replies: 3
Views: 281

Re: Does using the trend in a higher timeframe give you a statistical advantage in a lower timeframe.

I'm a trend follower myself, I will tell you upfront that over the long-term, I don't think that trend following will result in higher absolute returns than buy-and-hold. Even famed trend following expert Meb Faber unequivocally states this. The point of trend following is to minimize your downside ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

If my portfolio can give off 100,000 a year in dividends, I don't see the point in selling off my principal. If you have a sizeable portfolio, living off dividends and muni bond interest in retirement seems to be a far better idea then selling off principal. I want to leave money when I die. If you...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

If my portfolio can give off 100,000 a year in dividends, I don't see the point in selling off my principal. If you have a sizeable portfolio, living off dividends and muni bond interest in retirement seems to be a far better idea then selling off principal. I want to leave money when I die. Sellin...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 92
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

I'm a bit surprised that Larry called a 10% stock correction a "crash," especially when he immediately noted that there have been seven months since 1970 since this happened. I wouldn't call anything less than a bear market a crash. I agree with Larry that alternative lending can be an effective mea...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1335

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

This is a good case for diversification of income streams. IE: SPIA's, Rental Income, etc etc. mahalo, j :D Adding to that list, crowdfunded real estate (e.g. RealtyShares, RealtyMogul), peer-to-peer lending, and 'hard money' loans (e.g. FundThatFlip, PeerStreet) are unlikely to be correlated with ...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3871

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Being house poor tends to be temporary (even small raises rapidly get you out of the house poor situation over 5-10 years) while spending tends to be pretty permanent (i.e. that 10k raise doesn't go towards savings. It goes towards a boat.). If your a spender, there are far worse things to spend mo...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7482

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

So did Australia and South Africa. Yes, we know. Since you didn't feel like including it when you quoted me I'll say it again, you're arguing something that wasn't brought up. No one is saying the US has outperformed each and every other country one on one. No, but a lot of people are saying it mak...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7482

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

Admittedly, I don't have any data to support my claim, but I believe the U.S. being the top country in terms of dollar returns is a fallacy. I don't think the U.S. generated greater dollar returns than any country over each and every period. It's so far fetched that the onus of proof should really ...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3871

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

OP, As far as I can tell, in order to avoid of SRR while accumulating A) Save as much as possible and as early as possible. B) Adjust your AA to be more conservative as it gets bigger or big enough Do I get this right? As far as working longer and so on, those are beyond most folks' control. Only (...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)
Replies: 52
Views: 3344

Re: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)

True. He may also value jumping off a 1,000 ft cliff or go skinny diving with great white sharks. Scratch FI, make those priorities then. Goal should be FI, not house ownership. It is very presumptuous for anyone to tell the OP what his/her goals should be. He may value home ownership more than FI....
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Inflation Rate Do You Use?
Replies: 19
Views: 1106

Re: Which Inflation Rate Do You Use?

Shadowstats is bunk. And the longer they go on claiming that the true rate of inflation is 8-10% per year, the bunkier it gets. I've heard others make similar claims, to which I have replied that if inflation was actually 8%, then prices should be doubling roughly every nine years. When I ask them ...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3871

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Sorry, that was $1,000 invested annually . It would make a small difference by looking at monthly contributions, but not much. I always find these numbers a bit deceptive when you try and use them in the real world. Lets compare 2 people at 1k/year. 1988-2007 74k 1989-2008 55k That is a pretty big ...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

As many mention, sequence of events matters greatly in terms of long term portfolio viability. Given current valuations, I do not think it it unreasonable to expect my 75X expenses to devolve in 40 or 50X in short order. Also I feel the need to plan for a 45 to 50 years for the wife in retirement. ...
by willthrill81
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

Living off of dividends is exactly the same as selling off your stocks though. So you could rephrase your question as, "What if you only live off selling off your stocks?" I dont agree. Receiving dividends is not “exactly the same” as selling your stock. Nobody can say for sure what would happen to...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10809

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

For good or bad, this thread is another good illustration of the fact that Bogleheads, by and large, are a risk averse bunch. I was thinking the opposite. Outside of the bogleheads I'm not sure if the thought of going without home owners insurance exists. That's probably because Bogleheads are amon...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10809

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

For good or bad, this thread is another good illustration of the fact that Bogleheads, by and large, are a risk averse bunch.
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

We have had this conversation before. Lets say real returns for the next 30 years are 1/3rd of historical values (call it 2%). Will the 4% rule fail? Maybe. Maybe not. 2% is twice what the 4% rule to work depending on the sequence of returns. If you are going to say you cut the SWR in half when CAP...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13625

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

No, the assumption is the assets will not completely run out in less than 30 years. If you want to live off dividends you will either unnecessarily delay retirement or take too much risk to generate high dividends. Which cannot be relied on to stay consistent. 0.04 X portfolio is not fancy math. A ...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3871

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Unless I'm missing something, it seems your Monte Carlo simulations show the effects of variability in the actual time-weighted returns as well, not just in the sequence of returns. They are both risks to keep in mind, but I don't see how you can draw any conclusions on sequence risk specifically w...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3871

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

2. It would be really interesting to see a plot of final portfolio vs. starting year. I expect it would be a fairly smooth curve, but maybe not. Below is a graph of a portfolio comprised of 60% U.S. TSM / 40% intermediate term Treasuries beginning with 1972-1991 and ending with 1998-2017. As in the...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3871

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

1. I think that in accumulation SR Risk is the wrong term to use. It should be SR Effect . As I approach retirement I know exactly what my portfolio is, and have a very good idea of what it will be at retirement. I must adjust my lifestyle choices so that my portfolio accommodates them. Perhaps, bu...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 129
Views: 7218

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

So you quoted extremely blunt math (instead of the one I suggested) on already blunt numbers, and yeah, you find something very blurry. No surprise. It does remain blurry when using better math, mind you. Oh well, we can re-discuss the whole topic when you get closer to retirement. Then you may sta...
by willthrill81
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3871

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Reference was made above I think to “Murphy’s Law Of Retirement”. Late accumulators benefit from a bull market, see their portfolios swell, and then decide to retire. They are retiring after a long bull, equity valuations high, future expected returns low, whole potential distribution of returns sh...