Search found 1274 matches

by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to begin to save for my next car?
Replies: 5
Views: 421

Re: How to begin to save for my next car?

Are there any types of investments you'd recommend? I get confused about fees/penalties for removing funds. Open a brokerage account with Vanguard. Invest the money in Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund. It's mostly bonds with some stocks and has a great track record with minimal volatility; the most...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement and renting vs. home ownership
Replies: 12
Views: 578

Re: Retirement and renting vs. home ownership

Keep in mind that in the absence of rent control, the monthly cost of rent is going to be higher than the monthly cost of paying a mortgage plus TCO; it simply has to in order to make financial sense for the landlord. Renting is not a magic wand that reduces your costs. So when you're comparing appl...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [POLL] What is your personal saving rate?
Replies: 58
Views: 6889

Re: [POLL] What is your personal saving rate?

I think this thread needs some reviving.

Including money I'm currently using to pay down my mortgage early (a negative bond; all will move into investment account upon paying off the mortgage), my pre-tax savings rate is just shy of 40%.
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

Seriously though, isn't holding and rebalancing through market 'crashes' what Bogleheads preach as gospel? How would doing so be an example of overconfidence? And how could knowing deep within yourself that you would actually do this be bad?[/b] Your last two questions I don't understand: what &quo...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Stasis5001 wrote:Well, I think the correct allocation to EE bonds is probably under 10% of total portfolio


Individuals cannot invest more than $10,000 in EE bonds in a calendar year. So over a five year period, a married couple could put no more than $100k nominal in them.
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Three fund portfolio for my 401K
Replies: 4
Views: 422

Re: Three fund portfolio for my 401K

Ideally taxable bonds shouldn't be in taxable accounts. This is a common misconception. It depends on the situation, but bonds often belong in taxable accounts because stocks will grow faster. "Too many investors, including many very knowledgeable investors and advisors, have been giving portf...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

People really need to be a bit more astute, and take this behavioral stuff with a grain of salt. I agree. What I think is fascinating is those on this board (presumably above average investor knowledge/interest since they are members here) that claim they still don't/can't trust themselves to not s...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard adviser - advice when not carrying a mortgage into retirement
Replies: 57
Views: 3899

Re: Vanguard adviser - advice when not carrying a mortgage into retirement

Won't home expenses be replaced by other expenses such as health care, travel, gifts for grand kids? I know someone who has 29 grandkids. He has the entire family over for thanksgiving. I can imagine this must be a significant expense. Personally, I'm planning on living off 80% of my income in reti...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..
Replies: 19
Views: 2179

Re: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..

Thanks for posting this - I think about this a lot. I think it depends a lot more on your expenses and savings rate than it does an actual AA IMO. If your SWR would be under 3% - it probably seems to work well and probably really well with a SWR under 2%. I know that you weren't advocating this, bu...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

People really need to be a bit more astute, and take this behavioral stuff with a grain of salt. I agree. What I think is fascinating is those on this board (presumably above average investor knowledge/interest since they are members here) that claim they still don't/can't trust themselves to not s...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

Bad behavior loses more money than high fees. It's a well established fact. I won't dispute that bad behavior can lose more money than high fees, but do you have a source that shows that it actually does in practice, presumably for a majority of investors? Many use the DALBAR studies as evidence of...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard adviser - advice when not carrying a mortgage into retirement
Replies: 57
Views: 3899

Re: Vanguard adviser - advice when not carrying a mortgage into retirement

It depends on what type of cash flow you want to have and what you want to do with your retirement. If you want to travel the world nicely while you can 80% may not be enough. If you plan too high you can always find a worthwhile charity, too low and retirement can be a groaner. Yet another good re...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

So the questionable statistical properties of using rolling periods is absolutely critical to the issue at hand. And that's not the only issue. There's also the issue that there is lots of uncertainty about the true mean, mean reversion, and other parameters relevant to the future distributions of ...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

EE bonds are redeemable for face, and hence always beat cash (ignoring that you have to use TreasuryDirect!). This is incorrect. If you hold EE bonds for fewer than twenty years, the nominal rate is .1%. Cash in a high yield savings account right now will easily earn 1% or higher. And if you don't ...
by willthrill81
Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..
Replies: 19
Views: 2179

Re: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..

Keep in mind that Buffett is either discussing a young person who is decades from retirement or a person of retirement age who has a vast fortune. The former can take a lot of risk because they have years before they will start drawing on the portfolio. The latter could live the rest of her life in...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

... For some people, I think that they are letting themselves be held hostage to their perceived emotional need for 'stability' to their own detriment. Who does not have an emotional need for stability? And why would perceiving it in oneself amount to being held hostage to it? And why would it all ...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

That's your opinion. Personally, I don't hear many on this forum advising anyone to take on more risk. willthrill81, Really? How about all those threads telling folks that they should be 100/0? KlangFool Who is doing that? Certainly not me. Do you think that the majority of posters here are advisin...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

That's your opinion. Personally, I don't hear many on this forum advising anyone to take on more risk. willthrill81, Really? How about all those threads telling folks that they should be 100/0? KlangFool Who is doing that? Certainly not me. Do you think that the majority of posters here are advisin...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

For some people, I think that they are letting themselves be held hostage to their perceived emotional need for 'stability' to their own detriment. I know they're out there because I've known some personally. I'm not convinced that telling them that there's nothing to do about this except save more...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Europe's low CAPE "reflects psychology"
Replies: 17
Views: 1930

Re: Shiller: Europe's low CAPE "reflects psychology"

... (I've argued against for years) The idea that these ratios represent forecasts for the underlying value is just not right; they are mostly psychological narratives. We have a lot of bad narratives about Europe... Above quote at 1:30 of the interview, which is only 2 1/2 minutes. http://www.cnbc...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

If the need and ability are there to take the risk needed to meet goals, there remains the question of willingness to take it, referring to risk tolerance. If an investor can’t or doesn’t want to deal with that risk and therefore goals can’t be met, then, as Klang Fool has posted (and previous thre...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

There's little disputing that, despite its potentially questionable statistical properties, the second approach is more akin to the issue brought up by the OP. For instance, if we look at this as randomly 'dropping an investor' into any year in the available data and they invested a lump sum, the r...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

...People don't like uncertainty (another way of saying they do like guarantees) that offers a loss of everything they have invested in the market. I don't think it's hard to understand that. The answer should be to find a balance between acceptable loss and safety, but of course that balance is go...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

...People don't like uncertainty (another way of saying they do like guarantees) that offers a loss of everything they have invested in the market. I don't think it's hard to understand that. The answer should be to find a balance between acceptable loss and safety, but of course that balance is go...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard adviser - advice when not carrying a mortgage into retirement
Replies: 57
Views: 3899

Re: Vanguard adviser - advice when not carrying a mortgage into retirement

I doubt that many of us would be complaining about having too much money in retirement. :wink: Maybe not -- but for us, at the edge of the 15% tax bracket, it may not be optimal to have lived unnecessarily frugally for the joy of paying higher taxes and/or leaving more behind. Which is the more dir...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 29, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I don't have a strong statistics background, so can't really argue the case, but I don't think our two vocal EE-bond critics have presented a compelling argument that justify using rolling 20-year periods for a valid statistical analysis from which we can determine a statistically valid 20-year exp...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 247
Views: 31753

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:I can't find the 3% Andrews CU 84-month CD promo any more. Is it over? Thanks.


Apparently yes.
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 21
Views: 1531

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

So, back to the original question: :?: How many 10-Year Return Samples are there? Do 8 samples represent everything that there is to know about 10-year returns? Can we just throw out 90% of the rolling data because it is redundant? What say you? I am not an expert but...I come down on the side of &...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Reminds me of Cialdini's book Influence! : the consistency and commitment principle, regarding human misjudgments. Very difficult for a human to change their mind once they've made a commitment to a position. Due to self-created justifications they stay consistent with it even in the face of new an...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction
Replies: 29
Views: 3232

Re: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction

These association studies can come to almost any conclusion. It's difficult to experimentally manipulate many of the factors involved here, such as total investments. It's possible with scenarios, but they have issues with external validity (i.e. will people react the same way as in normal circumst...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five year CD paying more than 10 yr. treasury
Replies: 19
Views: 2350

Re: Five year CD paying more than 10 yr. treasury

I'm glad that when the time comes for me to move into a much stronger bond position that I can do so with TIAA Traditional. It's currently paying 3.25% for full liquidity and 4.00% if you're willing to withdraw it over no fewer than nine years. Those options seem to beat pretty much anything else ou...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I don't have a strong statistics background, so can't really argue the case, but I don't think our two vocal EE-bond critics have presented a compelling argument that justify using rolling 20-year periods for a valid statistical analysis from which we can determine a statistically valid 20-year exp...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction
Replies: 29
Views: 3232

Re: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction

I think someone has something backwards. Wealthier people tend to have more readily available cash. Are these people happier because ⋅ they have a bigger wad of bills in their pocket or because ⋅ they are wealthier? If I had to bet I would bet on number 2. Think about correlatio...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction
Replies: 29
Views: 3232

Re: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction

And as far as cash goes that may not do you any good if things go sideways. Remember the 1970s and the gas shortages? No amount of money could fix the no gas thing. If there was no gas in your hood you were just stuck. Lots of times people just ran out of gas and had to walk or bike. I had to wait ...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: something odd regarding EE bonds

So the thing I can continue to struggle with is people who believe there is a good chance stocks will underperform 3.5% nominal (possible, but this is an extremely bad scenario), and then suggest the lack of liquidity doesn't matter to them. I think that requires imagining a truly unlikely scenario...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: something odd regarding EE bonds

I agree. Historically, there's been a lot more potential for downside risk with equities over a 7 year period than a 20 year period. Comparing stocks to bonds over a one year period is nonsensical. Over a twenty year or longer period, it's prudent, with the stipulation of tolerance for volatility. ...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction
Replies: 29
Views: 3232

Re: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction

Consider the journal that this appeared in. Emotion is one of the peer-reviewed psychology journals published by the American Psychological Association and has an impact factor of 3.082 in 2014, which is fairly high. It's a respectable journal. The authors also come from respectable universities.
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction
Replies: 29
Views: 3232

Re: The Importance of “Cash on Hand” to Life Satisfaction

One of the best things about being old and retired is having a bunch of money in my checking account and paid off credit cards. So I can go out to dinner or buy most anything I want and not worry about the bill. I have enough. It is a wonderful feeling. My wife loves not thinking about what somethi...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five year CD paying more than 10 yr. treasury
Replies: 19
Views: 2350

Re: Five year CD paying more than 10 yr. treasury

While it's true that the ten year Treasuries have greater liquidity, they also carry greater interest rate risk and inflation risk. That's five additional years in which time interest rates could go up, leaving you stuck with a 2.3% yield, as well as five additional years in which inflation could ri...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing the Failure Rate in evaluation of retirement strategies
Replies: 13
Views: 682

Re: Replacing the Failure Rate in evaluation of retirement strategies

Though this would be of interest: https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/life-death-and-how-long-your-money-will-last Nice article. I like this quote. "We also have a gut feeling that anyone talking about being 95 percent certain of anything 30 years in the future is probably delus...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

Will wrote: What I don't understand is those who are so risk averse that they are unwilling to see any volatility in their invested assets, despite the fact that many of their other assets (i.e. home, automobiles) are likely volatile too. We probably all know people who refuse to put any money into...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing
Replies: 36
Views: 2078

Re: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing

Just to remind the OP, rebalancing does not improve returns over the long-term. The so-called 'rebalancing bonus' is a myth. It's actually likely to reduce long-term returns. So given that the primary reason is to simply maintain one's desired risk-tolerance, the question then becomes "Under wh...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

What I don't understand is those who are so risk averse that they are unwilling to see any volatility in their invested assets, despite the fact that many of their other assets (i.e. home, automobiles) are likely volatile too. We probably all know people who refuse to put any money into anything th...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

Remember, life expectancies worldwide were around 30 years in 1900, and around 50 in 1950. In the US and developed countries it was higher, obviously, but even then, life expectancies weren't much over 65 in the 1950s. So most of human history has been more worried about day-to-day or month-to-mont...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

We need to use whatever strategy that works for us. KlangFool That's a good point. If you can achieve your investment objectives with a low-volatility strategy, then why not? Accepting more risk is not an end in itself. However, if an aversion to risk is preventing you from realizing your goals, th...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: something odd regarding EE bonds

The interest rate risk is not to be underestimated and neither is inflation risk. If inflation averages at the Fed's target then the pre-tax real return of EE bonds would be about 1.5%. People on this board keep trying to compare EE bonds to stocks and other investments. They should only be compare...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: something odd regarding EE bonds

Because you should decide on what your investment plan is with an appropriate AA first . Then you want to decide on what the best implementation of that plan and AA is going to be. You should start with your investment goals and risk tolerance. Nobody should want stocks just because their AA calls ...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing the Failure Rate in evaluation of retirement strategies
Replies: 13
Views: 682

Re: Replacing the Failure Rate in evaluation of retirement strategies

I agree with the author that failure rate in evaluating an investment and spending strategy should be used in conjunction with shortfall years. Running out of money at age 70 is much worse than doing so at age 90. From Failure to Success: Replacing the Failure Rate 15 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2017 Javi...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 320
Views: 16032

Re: something odd regarding EE bonds

The interest rate risk is not to be underestimated and neither is inflation risk. If inflation averages at the Fed's target then the pre-tax real return of EE bonds would be about 1.5%. People on this board keep trying to compare EE bonds to stocks and other investments. They should only be compare...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?
Replies: 86
Views: 2409

Re: Should we treat investors' tolerance for volatility as fixed?

This is correct. Risk tolerance is built right into our genes. Some people, perhaps you, Will, have a risk-taking gene and those that have it cannot seem to comprehend those that don't. I really can understand how someone nearing retirement, for instance, would want to put a majority of their asset...

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