Search found 893 matches

by willthrill81
Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of series on EM, another look at valuations
Replies: 8
Views: 621

Re: Part 2 of series on EM, another look at valuations

Thanks, Larry. One thing I take away from your post is that over the medium term valuations matter the most, and your odds of a loss are lower over the medium term if you tilt towards markets with favorable valuations. Obviously over days and months anything can happen, and if you have a very long ...
by willthrill81
Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?
Replies: 33
Views: 2335

Re: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?

40/60 to 60/40 is the general range. You can go higher in stocks but you might have a heart attack during a down market:) As you age you can chose (you dont' have to) go more conservative. With a 30 year time frame, you need the real growth potential of stocks. With a 10 year one, it isn't remotely...
by willthrill81
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?
Replies: 33
Views: 2335

Re: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?

I know we are supposed to use bonds to combat the volatility of the stock market... Says who? I'm sure there are some people who use them for that purpose, but I do not agree that they are "supposed" to be used that way. I agree with pepperz that many folks on this forum believe that bond...
by willthrill81
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?
Replies: 33
Views: 2335

Re: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?

But of course if you went all in for Vanguard's Wellington Income fund you'd be 40/60, but historically you'd only be behind the S&P 500 by about .4% CAGR, but with only a fraction of the volatility. You mean Wellesley Income, right? It was years before I had the two W's straight in my mind. Ye...
by willthrill81
Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?
Replies: 33
Views: 2335

Re: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?

Depends. How will you feel if your $3M drops to $1.5M? Is $3M really your number if it can only provide for you in an aggressive portfolio with no major bear market? I guess your point illustrates my question. Do you consider a yearly expected average return of 4% to be an aggressive portfolio? You...
by willthrill81
Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1,124,176 Car.
Replies: 99
Views: 6713

Re: The $1,124,176 Car.

I think that people need to give the OP a break with the 7% returns. Forget valuations for a moment and look back at the last 25 years. Valuations have been above average for that entire period, with only a single 'break' of a few months in 2008-2009, and yet real returns for the TSM have been 6.9% ...
by willthrill81
Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 31
Views: 2869

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

The two most basic choices are either a fixed or a flexible withdrawal strategy. While most people prefer a steady income stream (i.e. fixed plus inflation), in reality very few people are comfortable continuing to withdraw the same amount when equities are down 30-50% in one year. Of all the method...
by willthrill81
Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?
Replies: 33
Views: 2335

Re: AA after reaching your "freedom number"?

What are the Bogleheads recommended practices for how to allocate your portfolio once you've reached your "goal" number and wish to stop "working for a living"? Popular opinion from what I've read here seems to be 50(stocks)/50(bonds) or even 40(stocks)/60(bonds). Is this what m...
by willthrill81
Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

There is a confusion between being wealthy and being a millionaire. Having 2-3 million is a long way from the lifestyle that most people would consider wealthy. With an income of say 100-150k, you are defnitely well off. But you aren't remotely in the class that most people would consider wealthy (...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

I am honestly not being sarcastic or negative but I just do not get this.I mean is it not basic common sense that the more frugal you live the more money you will save?I can guarantee you all those millionaire next door types that are 70,80 years old now never needed a brilliant PHD to tell them if...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there something wrong at TIAA today?
Replies: 5
Views: 561

Re: Is there something wrong at TIAA today?

Apart from this issue, I really want to transfer an old 401a I have with TIAA to another company. The ERs (over 40 basis points for most funds) and choices in my plan are not great. But my prior employer specified that no transfers are allowed until I'm 55 (they didn't disclose this when I worked fo...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years
Replies: 50
Views: 5895

Re: Harvard no longer beats the market

Bogleheads: According to the Boston Globe, In recent years Harvard has significantly under-performed the U.S. total stock market. https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2016/09/22/harvard-endowment-investment-return-drops-percent/e6Jj6GYxhpLOnpVH6kPI3L/story.html Best wishes. Taylor They say exactly ...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

We still have 40+ years of gold data in the U.S. since the gold standard was abandoned. I personally place more value in those data than MC simulations. But I'll admit that there are a lot of people out there a lot smarter than me who really like them. Other countries also have abandoned the gold s...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years
Replies: 50
Views: 5895

Re: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years

This report from HE says they had annualized return in excess of 10% over the last 20 years. I have always considered "annualized return" to be CAGR. The report is undated by refers to FY 2016, so I take it to be late 2016. 20-year (total return) CAGR for the S&P 500, ending 12/2016 i...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

knpstr wrote:A fantastic book.

:beer


Totally agree. :beer And the market rewarded him very well for it. It's sad that a drunk driver ended his life. :(
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

In my view, the "millionaire next door" would be construed by most readers as the 'typical millionaire', and that's definitely the tone I get from reading the books. But that's not who they sampled. Very interesting on how we have such different views. I don't get that connotation at all,...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term unemployment planning
Replies: 61
Views: 2528

Re: Long term unemployment planning

When discussing unemployment (and the chances of it happening to someone specific), the overall unemployment rate is a good starting point, but you REALLY want to consider more than that. A fifty year old in the tech industry is probably at more risk than a 30 year old actuary. And some sectors wit...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

That's not how I remembered the tone of the book...so, I had to grab my copy, just a quick skim on him talking about athletes: "technically they may be millionaires but typically they are low on the PAW scale." Then this plays into the theme of the book that the "millionaire next doo...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

Taken together, it seems that the millionaires in Stanley's study were more affluent and successful in wealth building than most millionaires. That's not necessarily a fatal flaw to the research, but it certainly 'colors' his results. It has been a while since I read this but, wasn't that his point...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term unemployment planning
Replies: 61
Views: 2528

Re: Long term unemployment planning

You keep talking about overall numbers, but those don't help an individual who is unemployed. That's the same argument as Klangfool's, and it's just plain wrong. We talk about overall numbers as a means of assessing the likelihood of something happening to us. If there is a 10% chance of something ...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

Of course its biased.. Its limited to people who took his survey. That alone does not necessarily bias the results of a survey. A completely random sample is, by definition, not biased in any way whatsoever. Obviously, this is very difficult to do with most populations of interest to social scienti...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term unemployment planning
Replies: 61
Views: 2528

Re: Long term unemployment planning

At the personal level, a person could not be 10.8% unemployed. So, telling me or anyone that are unemployed during that period, the unemployment rate is only 10.8% is useless. KlangFool That's an erroneous line of reasoning. Here's why. According to the CDC, 717 people died from being tangled in th...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term unemployment planning
Replies: 61
Views: 2528

Re: Long term unemployment planning

Unless we're talking about widespread unemployment that is also leading to a declining equities market, your unemployment and a market downturn are unlikely to coincide, e specially with the aforementioned buffers. willthrill81, We call that recession. And, it occurred regularly every few years. Kl...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term unemployment planning
Replies: 61
Views: 2528

Re: Long term unemployment planning

Unless we're talking about widespread unemployment that is also leading to a declining equities market, your unemployment and a market downturn are unlikely to coincide, e specially with the aforementioned buffers. willthrill81, We call that recession. And, it occurred regularly every few years. Kl...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term unemployment planning
Replies: 61
Views: 2528

Re: Long term unemployment planning

I haven't read the whole thread, but I think that the seemingly common concern about being forced to sell stocks in a downturn is overblown. You're taking an unlikely situation (being unemployed), saying it will outlast a reasonable EF (3-12 months) and unemployment coverage, and then that you'll ne...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

I am not a big fan of MC studies, but I know that many are. Because of the US and other countries going on and off the gold standard several times in the last 150 years, historical data is fairly biased and unreliable. There are significant limitations of Monte Carlo simulations as well, not the le...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years
Replies: 50
Views: 5895

Re: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years

If Harvard was doing so great with their portfolio, then why did they just announce that they're downsizing their management team and moving toward more index investing? I suspect it's because they were more successful with their investments 40 years ago than they have been for the last decade. Whil...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years
Replies: 50
Views: 5895

Re: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years

... Part of my problem with the EMH is that by the nature of my profession as a social scientist, I'm all too aware of the many biases in human judgment that preclude any presumption that human being are 'rational agents'. Humans' actions seem to be determined far more by their emotions than logic....
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's comments on the economy and markets
Replies: 5
Views: 549

Re: Vanguard's comments on the economy and markets

6-8% nominal returns going forward? As long as inflation is kept low (<2%), I can live with that. Given the entirety of the situation, that sounds reasonable to me, though if corporate taxes are reduced, that will improve earnings, and prices will very likely go up consequently. Incidentally, the re...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

Now there may be other reasons to consider gold. But as inflation hedge it is not, TIPS are the best inflation hedge by far and a broad basket of commodities would be second. But not gold, at least for most investment horizons. Larry, Why then do you not suggest TIPS or commodities for the LP? Or d...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years
Replies: 50
Views: 5895

Re: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years

... Probably, taking more risk than the S&P 500 and making investments that are less liquid than the S&P 500. You would expect to be compensated for both. By that logic, it would seem that non-traded REITs should have a higher return than traded REITs, but I've heard that the former are gen...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years
Replies: 50
Views: 5895

Re: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years

With a portfolio split in thirds between LCV, SCB, and SCV from 1972 to now, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by about 2.4% real minus the added ER. And I can almost guarantee you that the expenses of that portfolio would have been a fraction of what Harvard's were, and the investments would ha...
by willthrill81
Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

While it's real value over long periods of time isn't likely to go up, it still has had investment value when it comes to smoothing out returns sufficiently to increase SWRs beyond stock and bond only portfolios, at least for the last ~40 years. One of the Trinity studies looked at the effect of ad...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

How much you should have been able to accumulate based on what? Income. I'm aware of that. My question was in regards to the formula as a whole. On what basis is someone a PAW? A small, biased sample of very wealthy people? How does being a PAW fit it with the rest of your financial goals, or shoul...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula
Replies: 168
Views: 13641

Re: "Millionaire Next Door" Net Worth Formula

I admire much of Stanley's work, though his sampling methods for millionaires were VERY biased, and his own books illustrate the problem. I've not seen anyone else discuss that issue. But this formula leaves me wondering "What's the purpose?" I think that there are many formulas and measur...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3256

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

deltaneutral83 wrote:That 1992 figure above is a real return, not nominal


Yes, I'm not interested in nominal returns. :wink:
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

One thing that prevents me from investing in gold is technology. Being in the commodities business, we have seen how massive technological breakthroughs when extracting fossil fuels (Oil & Gas) has caused the overall pricing complex to be completely re-set to lower production costs and ultimate...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

Another data point is 200 year record for gold in Jeremy Siegel's "The Future for Investors", p. 171. Gold compounded in USD about 0.2% per year over 200 years & t-bill about 2.9% over the same period. If you are holding gold as hedge against volatility in the withdraw phase then hold...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

Unfortunately for me, as an investor stuck in the present, that first part is the question that actually matters. Well if you don't believe in historical results, I suppose you're left with intuition and/or blind luck. The future will certainly look different than the past, but as Mark Twain says, ...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 71
Views: 3904

Re: an in depth look at gold

As I suggested previously, from my perspective there is no prima facie appeal to holding non-productive assets like bricks of paper money or chunks of gold in a long-term investment portfolio. I think you've hit the nail on the head as to why so many Bogleheads are opposed to gold. It has everythin...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3256

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

While I generally agree with the sentiment (over the long haul, the market eventually goes up) there are plenty of bad times to invest. If you hold the equities long enough, the "bad time to invest" is largely overwhelmed by the long-term gains that the market has always produced. And if ...
by willthrill81
Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 342
Views: 21553

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

But IMO advice should be designed to apply to as broad and general an audience as possible. The history of investor behavior shows that human emotion is more powerful than reason. For example, you can look at fund flow data and basic investor sentiment surveys to see that behavior hasn't changed mu...
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 37
Views: 2244

Re: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]

I think many folks miss Bogle's correct insight about international investing for the long-term. It is no coincidence when you look at the countries with the largest historical gains per year has a strong sense of free markets as a part of their culture and had little state/government interference ...
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8332

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

Maybe it doesn't feel "bubbly" because this time we've learned enough not to buy into the froth, and our asset allocations are balanced enough that a 50% drop in equities might sting, but still not be a threat? I do think that 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 are recent enough in most investors' m...
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in - WATER - thoughts
Replies: 57
Views: 3511

Re: Investing in - WATER - thoughts

The Earth is 2/3 water. If it gets scarce enough, they'll figure out how to pull ocean water and make it fresh. They can do this NOW, but it's really expensive. If you're willing to use a LOT of space and let the sun do the work for you, you can do it inexpensively. But doing it on a massive scale ...
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 342
Views: 21553

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I would like to diversify my cash and stock ETF portfolio with bond etf as well. Which ones would you recommend? I don't own any bonds personally, but I wouldn't hesitate to recommend Vanguard's Total Bond Market fund, VBTLX. Thanks, but I am looking for bond ETFs Here's a list of all of Vanguard's...
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in - WATER - thoughts
Replies: 57
Views: 3511

Re: Investing in - WATER - thoughts

The Earth is 2/3 water. If it gets scarce enough, they'll figure out how to pull ocean water and make it fresh. They can do this NOW, but it's really expensive. If you're willing to use a LOT of space and let the sun do the work for you, you can do it inexpensively. But doing it on a massive scale ...
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 342
Views: 21553

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

thimplicity wrote:I would like to diversify my cash and stock ETF portfolio with bond etf as well.

Which ones would you recommend?


I don't own any bonds personally, but I wouldn't hesitate to recommend Vanguard's Total Bond Market fund, VBTLX.
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in - WATER - thoughts
Replies: 57
Views: 3511

Re: Investing in - WATER - thoughts

Is there really a scarcity of water in California? I don't believe so. You got an endless supply of water from the Pacific via desalination. In fact, the nation's largest desalination plant is located in San Diego County and is expected to furnish the county up to 10% of their water supply. The onl...
by willthrill81
Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3256

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

While I generally agree with the sentiment (over the long haul, the market eventually goes up) there are plenty of bad times to invest. If you hold the equities long enough, the "bad time to invest" is largely overwhelmed by the long-term gains that the market has always produced. And if ...

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