Search found 1650 matches

by willthrill81
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4030

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Market participants do put a weight the risk that individual countries will pursue such policies. You can see that in, say, the lower valuations on Russian equities, where investors will expect a much larger equity risk premium to park their money there. The risk of that happening (and happening qu...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 26, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements
Replies: 5
Views: 1367

Re: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnatan Clements

It's pretty good, mostly Boglehead-ish. However, I disagree completely with this statement. "You realize that markets are unpredictable and that it’s extremely difficult to earn market-beating returns, so you always have some money in bonds and some money in stocks" Neither the fact that m...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 77
Views: 5482

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I'm 7 years from retirement, and I'm 50/50. In a few years, I may drop to 40/60. I don't care about CAPE. I would be 50/50 right now, regardless of CAPE. It's a terrible measurement tool for timing the market. People like to say it's the "best" of a bunch of bad tools, but it's still a te...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 73
Views: 4030

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

While I truly understand broad diversification and not aiming to predict the future, I do get worried about investing in "unknown" markets seeking higher returns. I may just be happy enough with what the US gives me. Thoughts? I added international stocks after reading Bernstein's "D...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4030

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

I've been thinking about this for a while now, and I think that there is a drawback to those who think that global cap-weighted stock portfolios have somehow 'diversified away' country risk. Currently, about half of the total value of all global equities is in the U.S. That means that half of a glo...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4030

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Currently, about half of the total value of all global equities is in the U.S. That means that half of a global cap-weighted portfolio is still in one country. How can anyone say that country risk is 'diversified away' or even minimized with a global cap-weighted portfolio? In some respects, the ri...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4030

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

I've been thinking about this for a while now, and I think that there is a drawback to those who think that global cap-weighted stock portfolios have somehow 'diversified away' country risk. Currently, about half of the total value of all global equities is in the U.S. That means that half of a glob...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zacks says sell Wellesley!?
Replies: 89
Views: 10177

Re: Zacks says sell Wellesley!?

I liked seeing my $1050 dividend today (Roth and 401k). . Why? It has no effect on anything other than that you have to do something with it. guess I don't understand investing. automatically reinvested since is tax sheltered accounts. share count increased. Isn't this the compounding machine in ac...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zacks says sell Wellesley!?
Replies: 89
Views: 10177

Re: Zacks says sell Wellesley!?

Hi Nisi: Here are some links regarding Zachs: Zacks Investment Research , investopedia Zacks Investment Research - Fidelity Zacks Investment Research Inc.: Private Company Information - Bloomberg Who are the most (least) accurate stock gurus? - CBS News (Larry Swedroe, February 13, 2013) regards, T...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 24
Views: 3403

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

I would think that if advisors devised simple 3 fund index portfolio, the clients would see that they could do it and save another .5-1% fee. Why does anyone need an advisor when it is so simple to have a 3 fund portfolio that needs annual(or less) balancing? Precisely. That's why advisers rarely r...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 24
Views: 3403

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

I don't think it's mostly client driven, rather it's predominately adviser driven. Many advisers make portfolios complex to make investing seem difficult and complex. Because if their clients did indeed figure out how simple it is, they would ask why they need an expert to do it for them. Plus chur...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?
Replies: 17
Views: 1725

Re: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?

Currently we have had a 9 year bull market. Dave I see this a lot. Certainly the market has been very good since the March 2009 bottom. But 2011 and 2015 were essentially 0 return years. There has been some retrenching during this time. We have avoided bear markets, but it hasn't been a straight li...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?
Replies: 17
Views: 1725

Re: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?

Random, I agree with your premise. I personally think that many of the 'standard' glidepath strategies are unnecessarily conservative from a mathematical risk standpoint, though perhaps not from an individual's risk taking perspective. For instance, I think that a 20 year old has no business owning ...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 3800

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

The spread of potential outcomes is indeed wide over say a 30 year period. Historically, 80% of the returns over 30 years for the S&P 500 have been between 4.44% and 8.72% nominal. Compounded over 30 years, the end result, even with DCA, would be very different given those returns. But that bein...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11965

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

And this will shortly turn into another "U.S. versus the rest of the world" thread. It seems that we have at least two a week. :oops:
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3835

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

It is certainly not necessary to market time TREA. But the reason so many do is because it is so very easy to do and get good results. TREA lags behind the overall REIT market, so if the market is up or down, you can buy or sell TREA accordingly. But if you don't want to do this and simply want real...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing cash reserve
Replies: 16
Views: 1761

Re: Investing cash reserve

Personally, I'm okay with the funds in my EF potentially being down 10% when I need the money IF I'm being rewarded well for investing it appropriately. Over 50% of my EF is invested in Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund. Even in 2008, its worst year in its 47 year history, the fund was down just 9.8...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pay Mortgage vs. Buy Bonds
Replies: 61
Views: 4800

Re: Pay Mortgage vs. Buy Bonds

I take the standard deduction/can't deduct my mortgage interest. That makes mortgage payments particularly attractive, as they are risk-free and tax-free, while an alternative investment would be taxable. That's where I am as well: 3.375% mortgage and we barely itemize so there's little benefit ove...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing cash reserve
Replies: 16
Views: 1761

Re: Investing cash reserve

Personally, I'm okay with the funds in my EF potentially being down 10% when I need the money IF I'm being rewarded well for investing it appropriately. Over 50% of my EF is invested in Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund. Even in 2008, its worst year in its 47 year history, the fund was down just 9.84...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

Paying off a debt like a mortgage does increase your net worth. No it doesn't - it is neutral as to your net worth (you decrease assets and liabilities by the amount of the payment). It is only neutral if the assets used to pay off the debt are not otherwise spent. For most people, I'm not so sure ...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

Paying off a debt like a mortgage does increase your net worth. No it doesn't - it is neutral as to your net worth (you decrease assets and liabilities by the amount of the payment). It is only neutral if the assets used to pay off the debt are not otherwise spent. For most people, I'm not so sure ...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

You shouldn't count your spending as savings. This precludes credit card payments as being included as "savings" in my opinion. Credit card payments are only included in the PP if they are no longer being used (i.e. someone did prior 'stupid' spending but has now 'seen the light' and is p...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Boglehead Board Game!!
Replies: 31
Views: 2235

Re: Boglehead Board Game!!

This seems like a good idea. Mabye the game could involve answering trivia-type questions about basic investing theory. It could be a simple "go around the board" type game. First person to get around the board wins. Each turn, someone reads you a question and if you get it right you roll...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

How much of a hypothetical credit card payment counts toward this metric if it is only a minimum payment, ie, one that mostly covers interest, not principal? I think we can imagine that only the principal portion really counts because of what he said about student loans. But I did not find that he ...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Vanguard Fund Has Beaten Its Category Average 16 Years In A Row?
Replies: 14
Views: 2251

Re: "What Vanguard Fund Has Beaten Its Category Average 16 Years In A Row?

Given Taylor's strong preference for the 3-fund portfolio, my guess is it's one of those funds, probably VTSMX or VTSAX.
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 83
Views: 10720

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

I understand the basics of bitcoin but not in depth enough where I would put any money into it. It's purely speculative at this time. That's fine. There are a lot of speculative assets. You can choose to participate or not. I thought fleetingly about buying some over the past number of years but ne...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 83
Views: 10720

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

I understand the basics of bitcoin but not in depth enough where I would put any money into it. It's purely speculative at this time. That's fine. There are a lot of speculative assets. You can choose to participate or not. I thought fleetingly about buying some over the past number of years but ne...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings
Replies: 31
Views: 2344

Re: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings

I agree with the post above. Personally, I value the concept of my family and marriage more than tax savings, so that takes precedence for me, but to each, their own. This is coming from a cheapskate who abhors debt and who happens to be married to someone with a quarter million dollars in student ...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

I really like this concept. Never totally liked only including the amount invested and not certain debt payment. For instance my business loan payments are hefty ($100k/yr), and I know I could sell my business for around inflation adjusted amount when I retire. I think the principal portion of that...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CIT Bank offering 1.15% savings account and up to $400 bonus
Replies: 7
Views: 1202

Re: CIT Bank offering 1.15% savings account and up to $400 bonus

amateurnovice wrote:Synchrony raised their savings rate to 1.15% a few days ago, no minimum balance or fees.


And no bonus. For a balance of $15,000, a $100 bonus is equivalent to .67% annual interest for the first year, besides the actual interest rate.
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

According to that article, real wages (adjusted for inflation) have been relatively flat for decades, so the assumption is generally correct. "But after adjusting for inflation, today’s average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power as it did in 1979, following a long slide in th...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CIT Bank offering 1.15% savings account and up to $400 bonus
Replies: 7
Views: 1202

Re: CIT Bank offering 1.15% savings account and up to $400 bonus

Note that the bonus may not post until 45 days after you complete qualification (three full statement-months). You will need to keep the account open until the bonus posts, but you can withdraw the bulk of your funds. Just keep a de minimis amount in the account to keep it alive. Good call. I'm wai...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

Very few people who were truly house poor when they took out a 30 year mortgage will still be house poor 20 years later due to inflation. Over the last 20 years, for instance, a period with historically low inflation, a $50,000 income in 1997 would now be approximately $77,000, a 54% increase, assu...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

This power percentage creates an illusion to all those "House Poor" people that they are doing very well. But, most of their "savings" is in the house. Hence, it does not take much to blow this "House of Cards" down. Good point The vast majority of house poor people ar...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

Although paying down debt is a very healthy financial activity, having the debt in the first place generally isn't! Any financial health score should tend to penalize those with high debt and reward those with little debt. I strongly agree with this point. Also, I have seen from peers that the firs...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

This power percentage creates an illusion to all those "House Poor" people that they are doing very well. But, most of their "savings" is in the house. Hence, it does not take much to blow this "House of Cards" down. Good point The vast majority of house poor people ar...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

It seems as though this metric would be devised to console those with debt. If one has a net worth of minus $1,000,000 (i.e. enormous student loan debt, mortgage debt, car/credit card debt, etc), and one saves $1,000,000 (over many years), one would have $0. You can't retire on a $0 portfolio. If y...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

"Power Percentage" seems more like a gimmick to me. Net worth is a good metric. You can certainly see how it changes and it has a clear , concise definition. It does? Does your net worth include the value of your Social Security? What discount rate did you use for valuing that? Does your ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

"Power Percentage" seems more like a gimmick to me. Net worth is a good metric. You can certainly see how it changes and it has a clear , concise definition. It does? Does your net worth include the value of your Social Security? What discount rate did you use for valuing that? Does your ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 242
Views: 29199

Re: Retreat to cash

anoop wrote:
TheTimeLord wrote:Like I posted in another thread the fear is palpable here in the last couple weeks.


Did I hear fear? Maybe it's time invest then. ;-)


It's 5 o'clock somewhere. :D
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

As a metric that rewards those of us with 5-figure incomes (and thus smaller denominators), I like it. :D 36% here for the two of us (too complicated to split it out to individual levels.) I'm not sure how it "rewards" those with incomes under $100k. Perhaps you could explain. It seems to...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Re: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

I like it because it makes me feel better about paying off debt I did for years. Assuming reasonable debt taken on based on future income, it can work. OTOH now that I know about SRR, savings is different than paying down debt Yes, savings is different from investing, but I would argue that, apart ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?
Replies: 47
Views: 3309

Power percentage: A more effective metric of financial performance than savings rate?

I've been recently listening to some of the podcasts by Pete the Planner and have found them interesting, funny, and a bit enlightening. Generally, the show consists of him going through various callers financial situation and helping them stabilize their financial lives and get on the path to finan...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 1872
Views: 296918

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

Date point: Just got another Barclay Arrival Plus card to use for Italy trip. Canceled my first BC A+ on 2/25/17 after having it for 9 months. I was not sure I was going to be approved after only having it closed for 3+ months. Have opened 14 cards in 15 months. But will Barclays award you the sign...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 252
Views: 16910

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]

Well, perhaps you are missing that *some* of those jobs provide health insurance. My 55ish neighbor lady took a job at Starbucks mostly for the insurance. She doesn't even like coffee, ha ha. If you did get laid off at age 54, and worked at Starbucks or similar for even a few years, it gets you clo...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 252
Views: 16910

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]

Here's a worst case scenario. The day you retire at 54 with $1,000,000, the stock market crashes by 50% and takes 15 years to recover. finite_difference, If the stock market crashes and take 15 years to recover, there will be a lot more people in trouble than me. The majority will not survive for m...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 252
Views: 16910

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]

Here's a worst case scenario. The day you retire at 54 with $1,000,000, the stock market crashes by 50% and takes 15 years to recover. finite_difference, If the stock market crashes and take 15 years to recover, there will be a lot more people in trouble than me. The majority will not survive for m...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 1872
Views: 296918

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

Hi all, We have Chase Sapphire Reserve and around 150K Ultimate Rewards points. We are looking book round-trip flights from Texas to Mumbai, India. Should we book through Chase Travel portal or something else? Thanks. In order to get the 50% bonus, you must book the travel through the Ultimate Rewa...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD on Declining Balance
Replies: 53
Views: 3295

Re: RMD on Declining Balance

^^, 're #cruncher's graph. All BHers believe that they will live at least to 95. :oops: :greedy Not this one. My projected life expectancy, based on many factors, is about age 87. But it wouldn't be prudent for me to prepare to be bankrupt by then either as there is a projected 50% chance I'll live...

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