Search found 1052 matches

by wbond
Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4496

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Yes, although those 19th c. returns were real (more or less)!

Cheers, wbond
by wbond
Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4496

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

John Bull can stand many things but he cannot stand 2%.

Cheers, wbond
by wbond
Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Re: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade

Jomoney and Larry: Interesting. Thanks.
by wbond
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Re: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade

avalpert wrote:. Not just not actionable but uninteresting as well.
On what ultimately do you base these models, Glaucon?
by wbond
Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Re: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade

Larry,

Put another way, do you expect an increase in earnings based on business cycle expectations or is it an accounting issue, or other?

Thanks,

wbond
by wbond
Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Re: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade

Larry,

To be clear, I find it of interest, not actionable. And, yes, inclusive of the recession/crash/recovery (such as it has been).

Why 2018?
by wbond
Sat Dec 03, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Growth of Earnings/Share over last decade

A) Since the components of equity returns can be broken down into 1) dividends plus 2) earnings growth/share plus 3) price change, and B) Since while price change tends to dominate short-intermediate term returns, the longer one's horizon the more important are the "fundamental" contributi...
by wbond
Sat Jul 16, 2016 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lemhi Pass (Lewis & Clark trail)
Replies: 4
Views: 710

Re: Lemhi Pass (Lewis & Clark trail)

Thanks!
by wbond
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lemhi Pass (Lewis & Clark trail)
Replies: 4
Views: 710

Lemhi Pass (Lewis & Clark trail)

Has anyone here ever driven across Lemhi Pass?

Google maps is telling me 1 hr 40 minutes from Grant, MT to Salmon, ID. Sound about right? Thanks, kindly.
by wbond
Sat May 21, 2016 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Boglehead-types to follow on Twitter?
Replies: 3
Views: 516

Re: Good Boglehead-types to follow on Twitter?

P.S. Should probably note I'm @MrWBond, FWIW.
by wbond
Sat May 21, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Boglehead-types to follow on Twitter?
Replies: 3
Views: 516

Re: Good Boglehead-types to follow on Twitter?

White Coat Investor wrote:Here's the ones I'm following right now. Most are/would be considered Bogleheads.


Thanks, kindly.

I'm already following you and most on your list. Added the remaining two or three.

I appreciate the response!
by wbond
Sat May 21, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Boglehead-types to follow on Twitter?
Replies: 3
Views: 516

Good Boglehead-types to follow on Twitter?

Any suggestions for BH-types active on Twitter?

Thanks,

wbond
by wbond
Sat May 21, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Interesting / Favorite Pandora Stations
Replies: 4
Views: 759

Interesting / Favorite Pandora Stations

I'm interested in BH's favorite "stations" including especially strategies for accessing genres. Strategies such as listing one obscure artist that forces the algorithms to diversify, etc. whereas, listing the "obvious" artist for that genre seems to lead to more predictable, bor...
by wbond
Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 181
Views: 27283

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

And I was worried that you would have to wait for it to do poorly to no longer be able to buy it.
by wbond
Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2955

Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds

So 2007?

Are we all buying QSPIX now?

Or do any Bogleheads still own these?

Did Rick win that debate in the end by TKO (in this case lack of interest)?

Or is this a buy signal - I mean a time to rebalance?
by wbond
Sat Sep 26, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury-TIPS spread
Replies: 35
Views: 2504

Re: Treasury-TIPS spread

SF Fed paper: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/september/market-based-inflation-forecasting-and-alternative-methods/ Thanks. That's interesting and timely. I had once known about inflation swaps. Thanks for reminding me. Those and the TIPS-Treasury breakeven ...
by wbond
Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury-TIPS spread
Replies: 35
Views: 2504

Re: Treasury-TIPS spread

Question: How "pure" are market expectations implied in treasury futures markets? Any other forces at work?
by wbond
Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury-TIPS spread
Replies: 35
Views: 2504

Re: Treasury-TIPS spread

Thanks. Very interesting.
by wbond
Sat Sep 26, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury-TIPS spread
Replies: 35
Views: 2504

Re: Treasury-TIPS spread

Yes, Taylor, I agree. Perhaps theory is interesting, for its own sake, however? The only possible practical implication is that TIPS should be considered as adding diversification to other asset classes, including nominal treasurys, even in a rebalanced, "concave" portfolio. That is, not j...
by wbond
Sat Sep 26, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury-TIPS spread
Replies: 35
Views: 2504

Treasury-TIPS spread

An interesting development this year as the 10-yr Treasury vs. 10-yr TIPS spread has narrowed. Nominal 2.17% TIPS .71% Spread 1.46% http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2015 http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-c...
by wbond
Sat Sep 12, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S/P 500 DY once again = 10-yr Treasury
Replies: 2
Views: 469

Re: S/P 500 DY once again = 10-yr Treasury

And the comparison of stock dividend yields versus 10-year government bond yields is currently even more striking internationally (chart below). By historical standards, these are either remarkably generous payouts for stocks or notably meager yields on bonds. My sense is that it's the latter. http...
by wbond
Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aug 2015 correction: what Bogleheads did...
Replies: 143
Views: 12304

Re: Aug-15 correction: what Bogleheads did...

You call that a correction? It's over? Well, stock market closed higher this week than last week, so everyone's portfolio made money this week. Yep, it is over. That doesn't mean the next one does not start this coming Monday or is it next Monday? PM when you remember which Monday! Oh, and remember...
by wbond
Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aug 2015 correction: what Bogleheads did...
Replies: 143
Views: 12304

Re: Aug-15 correction: what Bogleheads did...

You call that a correction? It's over?
by wbond
Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)
Replies: 16
Views: 1589

Re: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)

Image

Plaque in Southampton on Canute Hotel commemorating Canute's demonstration to sycophants that no man controls the tides.
by wbond
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)
Replies: 16
Views: 1589

Re: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)

Bill Bernstein wrote:
You might as well try to hold back the tide.

Bill


King Canute for Fed Chair!
by wbond
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 6681

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

I think that too many people "learned" that a 6 year stock market rally after a crash is inevitable. We did have one, but it was only one of the possible outcomes and will not predict future results. Sure, but in the long run DY + growth dividends trumps valuation. Always better to buy eq...
by wbond
Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 6681

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

I "over-rebalanced" in 12/08, when I was scheduled to rebalance. Agree it's a good test. Imagine the scenario. If you wouldn't follow your plan when the sky is falling then you're taking too much risk currently. Here's a thread I started in April of 2009. We now know this was right at/afte...
by wbond
Sun Jun 21, 2015 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Japan. The rotten apple that spoils the whole index?
Replies: 13
Views: 3097

Re: Japan. The rotten apple that spoils the whole index?

Other points:

Don't confuse nominal GDP growth with real.

Don't confuse real GDP growth with real GDP growth/capita.

Last, don't confuse forecasted real GDP growth with expected equity returns.

Cheers.
by wbond
Sun Jun 21, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1182
Views: 170573

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The general question, with all strategies that a) are validated only by very long runs of backtested data, and b) show periods of of outperformance and underperformance that have, in the past, lasted for over a decade, is: do I personally have the depth of conviction (and life expectancy) needed to...
by wbond
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YieldCo?
Replies: 3
Views: 840

Re: YieldCo?

In the immortal words of Kermit, it's not that easy.
by wbond
Sat Jun 20, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1182
Views: 170573

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

. The results of backtested portfolios depend on the returns/SD and correlations used for the style premia series. Using 10% annualized return/10 standard deviation as per the AQR paper, with zero correlation with stocks and bond yielded (small) mean-variance efficiency improvements for an already ...
by wbond
Fri Jun 19, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies
Replies: 30
Views: 5465

Re: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies

gkaplan wrote:
wbond wrote:The Searchers


The music group or the movie?


Yes.
by wbond
Thu Jun 18, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies
Replies: 30
Views: 5465

Re: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies

The Searchers
by wbond
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 334
Views: 58123

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Thanks.

The next page option wasn't showing up on my phone and I missed it.
by wbond
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 334
Views: 58123

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Larry,

You list "four premia that many investors desire:" value, size, momentum, and defensive.

I thought the second was "carry " rather than size. Am I incorrect? Or has something changed about their carry strategy?

Thanks,

wbond
by wbond
Sat Nov 08, 2014 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2715
Views: 763557

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Nicolas wrote:The Man Who Would Be King, with Michael & Shakira Caine and Sean Connery, directed by John Huston, 1975.


Peachy, in your opinion, have our lives been misspent?
by wbond
Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like
Replies: 150
Views: 22881

Re: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like

No Country For Old Men Whoa! - No Country for Old Men , is one of my All Time Favorite Movies. Just Genius on the part of the Coen Brothers. +1 No Country for Old Men is fantastic. Love most everything from the Coen Bros though... I much prefer their comedies. They try too hard in their serious fil...
by wbond
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 10517

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

Thanks, Larry. I greatly enjoyed the Ilmanen book - but more from the standpoint of theory than practice. I know that B. Bernstein is "blurbed" on the dustjacket. Do you - or does anyone else - know if he has commented on this fund (as opposed to the book, which is obviously about much mor...
by wbond
Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A close look at the research on the carry trade
Replies: 17
Views: 3163

Re: A close look at the research on the carry trade

matjen wrote:Hope this clarifies."


Interesting. Thank you kindly.
by wbond
Sat Jun 21, 2014 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A close look at the research on the carry trade
Replies: 17
Views: 3163

Re: A close look at the research on the carry trade

For some reason the net ER is the 2.11% - not 1.5% - when accessed throught the Fidelity tax-advantaged plan. I assume it's related to the plan somehow. Costs matter, as always.
by wbond
Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports
Replies: 115
Views: 9222

Re: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports

sscritic wrote:
wbond wrote:Beat Cal

Best advice of the thread, even better than my own. :)


I thought you might like that.

As is often the case, much of the above has been said better before:

"If all the year were playing holidays,
To sport would be as tedious as to work"
by wbond
Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports
Replies: 115
Views: 9222

Re: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports

In comparison to Europe the emphasis on sports is way overblown here in the US. In public schools in Germany many years ago there was no organized sport activity, such as sports teams of schools playing against each other. Same in college there was no organized sport. Though in elementary to high s...
by wbond
Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investment choices at Fidelity
Replies: 19
Views: 2013

Re: Bond investment choices at Fidelity

As above, what is the plausible argument for actively managing bonds vs. equities? Many of the interesting arguments about fixed income investing revolve around 1) treasury duration for investors 2) the role of TIPS in a portfolio 3) corporates in general 4) High yield (including outperformance of ...
by wbond
Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investment choices at Fidelity
Replies: 19
Views: 2013

Re: Bond investment choices at Fidelity

As above, what is the plausible argument for actively managing bonds vs. equities? Many of the interesting arguments about fixed income investing revolve around 1) treasury duration for investors 2) the role of TIPS in a portfolio 3) corporates in general 4) High yield (including outperformance of &...
by wbond
Thu Jun 05, 2014 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rational Expectations Kindle
Replies: 10
Views: 2365

Re: Rational Expectations Kindle

I'll add it to my Bernstein library and look forward to reading it.
by wbond
Thu Jun 05, 2014 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mistake: extra dirt
Replies: 24
Views: 2645

Re: Mistake: extra dirt

The problem with the liquidity of this secondary market is it sticks to your boots.
by wbond
Mon Jun 02, 2014 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prof Andrew Ang - Factor Investing Textbook Online
Replies: 9
Views: 2216

Re: Prof Andrew Ang - Factor Investing Textbook Online

Bill Bernstein wrote: Spendy, but simply the best academic-level finance textbook I have ever read.

Bill


High praise. I'll pre-order.

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