Search found 152 matches

by visualguy
Mon May 22, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)
Replies: 215
Views: 17060

Re: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)

Now, would I pay more for a ticket on a train that would get me there at the same time, but was pulled by an engine that could, but would not, go faster? No. It would seem a pointless waste of money. Same for cars. You have a point, but it isn't that simple. A luxury car is more fun and pleasant to...
by visualguy
Fri May 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 6697

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

But we shouldn't assume that the Bay area will always be booming in the way it has done or that its particular share of tech will always be dominant. The forces of commoditization are everpresent. It's not a given that people will always pay $700 for a new iphone as opposed to $100 for some generic...
by visualguy
Wed May 17, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 6697

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

I think your analysis is spot on. My Megacorp has a de facto hiring freeze in the USA and all the new jobs are going to China. Why? - People work hard over there. Nights, weekends. The convention is to work weekends in order to 'earn' any national holidays. - Engineers have the same degrees, MS, Ph...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)
Replies: 215
Views: 17060

Re: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)

Just as an example, one adaptive LED headlight on the BMW 5-series is $2,000. Just as a counter-example, one HID headlight on my wife's RX350 is $1700 (aftermarket ones are more like $1100-1200)--I'm sure the LEDs on the newer models are more expensive. That coupled with a tendency for them to leak...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 6697

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

Do you mean you think property in SV will appreciate at a faster rate than other locations? I worry that it might be a bubble of sorts, which is why I get nervous thinking about buying at current prices. It's a supply/demand imbalance, not a bubble. There are enough people with a lot of cash to buy...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 6697

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

The problem is if you need another comparable job at some point, there are a lot more of them where you are than in Austin (In terms of making 250k+ with 5 yrs experience). Some people would drastically prefer living in San Jose to Austin in terms of weather, the beach, etc. this may not apply to y...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)
Replies: 215
Views: 17060

Re: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)

The problem with owning luxury cars is the cost of maintaining that lifestyle over the long term. Most people don't do it just once. They buy/lease one for themselves and one for their spouse repeatedly every few years. Over time, this adds up to literally hundreds of thousands of $$$ more than buyi...
by visualguy
Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Porsche Lease
Replies: 56
Views: 4120

Re: Porsche Lease

Jack FFR1846 wrote:you do have to be able to accept that you can ride home in the flatbed with your scrap metal on the back.


True, but I'd be even more concerned about riding to the hospital in an ambulance...
by visualguy
Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Porsche Lease
Replies: 56
Views: 4120

Re: Porsche Lease

I'd say you are doing yourself a disservice if you own a high performance vehicle like and don't stretch its legs every once and a while. The Porsche Club of America runs high performance driving events where you can get on the track with an instructor. Autocross is another option (time trials on a...
by visualguy
Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Porsche Lease
Replies: 56
Views: 4120

Re: Porsche Lease

I've been there... Owned a Cayman GTS for a little over a year (drove 4K miles). I bought new and sold rather than leasing because the Porsche lease terms wouldn't have been good. When I bought it, I actually thought I would keep it for a long time, but after a few months it became clear to me that ...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in International Index Fund?
Replies: 39
Views: 3538

Re: Why invest in International Index Fund?

20 years is a long time for poor results. It's long term, not short term - life is too short to wait for even longer than that to see a decent return. There is no guarantee that the same won't happen in the US, but it has mostly done better than that over periods of 20 years in the past. Yes, that's...
by visualguy
Thu Dec 29, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 18617

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

One day does not a market make ! Agree, but investing is not a foot race or sprint, it is a decades long marathon and only those who have the persistence and fortitude will stick it out. Sure, if you're lucky enough to have a lot of money to invest when you are young! If you're middle aged or older...
by visualguy
Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 18617

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

I was trying to draw your attention instead to the fact that your own example seems to be a reason no investor should ever be invested 100% in their domestic stock market. The problem is that if a Japan scenario happens in the US, investing in ex-US won't save you. When the US catches a cold, the w...
by visualguy
Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 18617

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

As I mentioned, only partially tongue in cheek, I fully expect foreign stocks to now take off. Good for the rest of you still hanging on! :sharebeer They may take off, but then go back down as they've been doing for a couple of decades now. By the way, in principle, US stocks could do the same over...
by visualguy
Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay the Course in the Next Bad Market?"
Replies: 32
Views: 5979

Re: "Stay the Course in the Next Bad Market?"

The best thing about a bear market is that I know that a bull market is right around the corner...someplace. Not necessarily true - this is not a law of physics or even economics... It's just an assumption that we make based on past behavior of the US stock market. It may hold until it doesn't. Als...
by visualguy
Mon Sep 26, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: has anyone leased a luxury/sport car to get it out of their system?
Replies: 45
Views: 4589

Re: has anyone leased a luxury/sport car to get it out of their system?

I did and it was a waste of money. I regretted it after 18 months. Same here. Bought a new sports car, and sold it after a little over a year. It was fun for a while, but then the novelty wore off, and my enjoyment of the car wasn't worth the hassles and expenses of keeping an extra car. I took a h...
by visualguy
Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10637

Re: Avoid International?

But that's only a 20 year period, I looked at a 25 year period. I think 25 years beats 20 years. Both suck:) Looking at any 1 period (pretty much no matter how long) can be decepitive in that end events matter a lot. You are much better looking at multiple 20 year periods (ideally including ones wi...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 07, 2016 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10637

Re: Avoid International?

If an investor is only investing for 20 years that probably means the investor didn't start saving until later in the career, which is of course common. If you look at all the available history there are examples of poor 20 year performance of both US and non-US stocks. Either or both might have po...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 07, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10637

Re: Avoid International?

Ignoring such a large part of the world economy seems like "placing a bet" to me. I like Vanguards recommendation of finding a spot between 20% and 40% you are comfortable with, and then sticking with it. The problem is that most of the world economies are stagnant (even when they have so...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 07, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10637

Re: Avoid International?

Never confuse strategy with outcome. If a stock market investment strategy isn't based on past outcomes, then what is it based on? Conviction? Blind belief? If the strategy includes buying and holding some stock index for a really long time (such as 20 years), then you need to look at how this inve...
by visualguy
Sat Aug 06, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10637

Re: Avoid International?

International stocks have underperformed for the last 20 years, as have all international index funds since their inception. There are no broad international index funds you can invest in that have outperformed the US. There is no proof besides backtests that there was ever any outperformance to da...
by visualguy
Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USA vs. International Stock Index PERFORMANCE. Please reassure Me!
Replies: 25
Views: 2420

Re: USA vs. International Stock Index PERFORMANCE. Please reassure Me!

All based on past performance. It is all based on past performance. As far as the statement on starting on 11/29/2010, I don't think things will look any better if you start on, let's say, 1/1/2007 [but I may be totally wrong!]. Again, what happened in the past decade is not a predictor of what is ...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 29, 2016 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 226
Views: 30370

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

What is your plan? It looks like his plan is to avoid losing his hard-earned money in the stock market... Getting a zero return beats a negative return. We can't say he's wrong because we don't know when the market will bounce back and rise persistently. Maybe in a year or two, maybe in 5, or 10, o...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 28, 2016 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets always bounce back. But do sectors also?
Replies: 15
Views: 1608

Re: Markets always bounce back. But do sectors also?

Markets have not always bounced back. That is a US-specific bias. +1 I think many aren't aware of this... Some never bounced back, some never bounced back persistently, and some bounced back after an unacceptably long period of time - you can find examples of different variants of this around the w...
by visualguy
Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best reason why the market will always go up?
Replies: 66
Views: 8520

Re: Best reason why the market will always go up?

On the other hand, if we don't believe the market will go up than what is the point of all of this? I can be a consuming debt ridden maniac and on my way to the Masserati dealership and after going to the mortgage lender to buy my McMansion. I am sure some would do this with my income and assets. N...
by visualguy
Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best reason why the market will always go up?
Replies: 66
Views: 8520

Re: Best reason why the market will always go up?

Hi all. In major conversations with friends. What is the best reason you have heard for why the global stock market will always go up? There is no inherent reason for this. It's based on the past, and some expectations about the impact of population growth, technological advancement, and economic p...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to cut AA to international?
Replies: 45
Views: 4529

Re: Time to cut AA to international?

Total Int'l did underperform Total-US in the past 20 years, by several points. And did over-perform it in the previous 20 years, by several points. What does this tell you about the coming 20 years? (ok, not that much, but still, better stay the course imho...) The problem isn't that it underperfor...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 23, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to cut AA to international?
Replies: 45
Views: 4529

Re: Time to cut AA to international?

I think the problem is that Total International is too much of a grab bag of moving sub-asset classes that ends up being a mediocre middle, especially if you are heavy in domestic large caps. If anything, this is the time to move more international, and not less. Total International hasn't work wel...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to cut AA to international?
Replies: 45
Views: 4529

Re: Time to cut AA to international?

Thoughts? Should I move to 80/20? Ride it out? I'm especially interested in arguments in favor of holding a high international allocation. I'm wondering what I'm missing. You aren't missing anything. Forget 7 years... Look at the performance of ex-US over the last 20 years... It has been a bad and ...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times article: 100% Stock Allocation in Retirement]
Replies: 127
Views: 14360

Re: 100% stocks

I am still amazed to find out about 0.1 percenters , who make their living "managing equities" for many fold of millions, but have mainly bonds in their personal asset allocation. Why amazed? They know better than to risk what they have unnecessarily. Managing the money of others who are ...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does the long term start?
Replies: 59
Views: 9754

Re: When does the long term start?

I can't help but think that some people are thinking that if they have 20 yrs. til their goal, then they are thinking they'll just plop their money in stocks for 20 yrs. Wrong. If 20 yrs. starts today, how far away is your goal in 5 yrs. from now? Ans.: 15 yrs. -- Now how do you invest? If equities...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What-ifs and Regrets
Replies: 25
Views: 4755

Re: What-ifs and Regrets

No regrets about not spending on this or that... Travelled quite a lot when I was young, owned a sports car in the past and got it out of my system (not worth it), have some fancy watches (also not worth it), have good audiophile equipment (worth it). Not sure what else... Not interested in a boat, ...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 7760

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

A wealth of common sense has looked at this exact case: the world's worst market timer.. a person who only invests at market peak. I highly recommend you read that blog http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ :beer As for your comment about taxable accounts: stocks are th...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 7760

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

Dirghatamas, You are looking at a particular scenario - regular small contributions throughout the entire period, tax-deferred account, etc. What about the money you already had in the stock market in 2000 - it hasn't grown much since then. If you lump summed, you were in a particularly unfortunate ...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 7760

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

Nick341981 wrote:Yikes, when you take into account the volitality of the tech bubble crash and the housing bubble thats pretty brutal.


Yes, and it's quite a bit worse if you look at ex-US, so if you had that as part of your stock portfolio, it's even more brutal.
by visualguy
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 7760

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

It's showing that, including dividends, 2000 through 2015 inclusive: --1.83% real (annualized) when corrected for inflation, --4.02% uncorrected for inflation, --over the whole period $1.00 grew to $1.88 which is far from "going nowhere." We can crosscheck that last one easily at Mornings...
by visualguy
Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3511
Views: 905910

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

bayview and VictoriaF, You have decades worth of living expenses in safe places such as cash. I agree that the stock market behavior is less of a concern for people like you. I'm pretty much in the same boat because I keep only 20% of my invested assets in the stock market, and I often wonder why I ...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3511
Views: 905910

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” -- Benjamin Graham Right now the voting machine is speaking loudly. In the long run, like when I'm trying to spend down the money I've spent 30 or more years investing, the returns I get will be based ...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3511
Views: 905910

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Yeah, but ex-US dropping by a quarter, and US dropping by one sixth without any serious crisis causing it is frightening. This is only so far - it may get worse. Now, what happens when there is a real crisis of some sort? Inevitably there will be one at some point. It feels like markets could easily...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3511
Views: 905910

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The market has certainly been screaming for attention the last couple months but there's nothing to panic about. I agree. However, I find it very disturbing that world markets react so radically even when there's nothing to panic about. It makes me wonder what will happen next time there is actuall...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index funds a guaranteed return?
Replies: 42
Views: 3475

Re: Are index funds a guaranteed return?

What is your reasonable expectation? I told the OP mine. I don't expect annual nominal 6%-8% over the next 20-30 years. There's nothing that I can see that would drive that kind of growth, so it would need to be some surprising development. I think 4%-5% (including dividends) is possible for the US...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3511
Views: 905910

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wasn't a member of this forum back in 2011, the last time a decline like this occurred (the 2011 decline was actually much worse than this one...so far). Where there a bunch of Broadstones and Visualguys around then too? I go back 2 years here, not all the way to 2011... How was 2011 much worse? ...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index funds a guaranteed return?
Replies: 42
Views: 3475

Re: Are index funds a guaranteed return?

NO. In fact my single stock portfolio of PM,JNJ,Pg, apple and Sbux is outperforming my Index portfolios. And don't believe the hype about needing International or even Small Cap. Once this temper tantrum is over,or when Bernie Sanders is out of the picture,all my International and Small Cap are gon...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index funds a guaranteed return?
Replies: 42
Views: 3475

Re: Are index funds a guaranteed return?

I think it is a reasonable expectation that the Total Stock Market fund, over 20 or 30 years, will provide a positive gain in the range of a 6% to 8% annual return (in dollars, not real spending power). What do you mean by "reasonable expectation"? 50% probability? 80%? It's hard to draw ...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3511
Views: 905910

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

the hope is that this will be irrelevant 20-30 years from now when i need the $$. Who knows what it will be like 20-30 years from now when you need the money. If you need to sell after a market crash at that time, things can be ugly. If US index behavior starts resembling ex-US index behavior more,...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index funds a guaranteed return?
Replies: 42
Views: 3475

Re: Are index funds a guarantee return?

The short answer is no, there is no guarantee and not even in the long run. Example are the Japanese stock market, it is nowhere close to its highs from 1988 / 1989. You can take even something much broader than Japan. Take a look at VGTSX which tracks the total ex-US stock index. By late 2007 it c...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) getting killed
Replies: 52
Views: 6294

Re: 401(k) getting killed

Just remember...in 2009 the dow was at 6,600. Today in 2016 its at 16,000. Almost tripled in less than 8 years. Yes, but the inverse happens too... How do you know that 8 years from now it won't be, say, 10,000 or even 8,000? People somehow make the assumption that the value of their stock will be ...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move 401k to stable value and lose no more principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1535

Re: Move 401k to stable value and lose no more principal

Your wife isn't suddenly going to need to cash out her 401k the day she retires. If it is in a 2020 target date fund, it should be on a glide path to a retirement-appropriate AA and should include some opportunities for continuing growth. By selling the shares now you would be locking in any losses...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) getting killed
Replies: 52
Views: 6294

Re: 401(k) getting killed

A falling market isn't necessarily a great thing for accumulators. Because it may just continue to fall. Not for years. For decades. Correct. Another possibility is just continued ups and downs that lead nowhere. Basically, the scenario that's been happening with ex-US stocks over the last couple o...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are US Stocks Overvalued?
Replies: 23
Views: 3114

Re: Are US Stocks Overvalued?

dc81584 wrote:CAPE-10; underwhelming global growth, deflationary pressures in certain markets, and my own general sense of things. To be honest with you, I think they are QUITE overvalued.


Agreed. They were already quite overvalued before, and now earnings are shrinking, so a bad combination.

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