Search found 554 matches

by visualguy
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Partial shift from bond funds to CD ladder
Replies: 10
Views: 717

Re: Partial shift from bond funds to CD ladder

Maybe we all had a case of loss aversion here. If you take the long term view, then net asset loss will be made up by having higher dividends 6 years consecutively for the intermediate term duration. I read a study showing that you may need to keep the bond fund for almost twice the duration to rec...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Handling ageism in tech
Replies: 56
Views: 4373

Re: Handling ageism in tech

Thesaints wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:11 pm
A really successful tech person doesn't need to work anymore at age 50 :)
Maybe there's no financial need to work, but that's not the only reason to work...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Lexus LS or Tesla Model S
Replies: 63
Views: 4163

Re: New Lexus LS or Tesla Model S

Neither. The Lexus LS500 is too long, and the Tesla is too wide. As mentioned before, the infotainment system sucks on the Lexus, and the interior sucks on the Tesla, plus the Tesla is missing useful features like top view cameras. I would go with a 5-series, E-Class, or Genesis G80 (Genesis if you ...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets of the frugal and dying?
Replies: 62
Views: 8598

Re: Regrets of the frugal and dying?

Regrets when dying don't matter much in my opinion. Life is almost over at that point, and the dead don't feel anything. If you didn't regret something until dying, and only regret it then, I don't think it matters that much because you don't have to live with it for long. The tougher problem is wit...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Handling ageism in tech
Replies: 56
Views: 4373

Re: Handling ageism in tech

You can typically keep working as an engineer in tech well into your 50s and beyond even in the private sector if you avoid stagnation. The problem is that many people naturally tend to run out of steam a bit as they get older, and start coasting a little too much. It is not easy to keep doing what ...
by visualguy
Sun Apr 08, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets of the frugal and dying?
Replies: 62
Views: 8598

Re: Regrets of the frugal and dying?

Many careers and businesses require a lot of time and focus to be at all successful. You can't really modulate the time and effort you put in all that much while still being successful. You may be able to retire early, but then you're in the other extreme of not working rather than working a lot, an...
by visualguy
Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VHCOL Home Buying Advice (Bay Area, where else?)
Replies: 65
Views: 4861

Re: VHCOL Home Buying Advice (Bay Area, where else?)

currently its a real hassle to do expansions, I' watch my neighbors houses sit half finished for months and months. Who knowz what that market will look like in 5 years, but the high volume of old housing stock here and the difficulty finding good labor probably means that major house renovations w...
by visualguy
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VHCOL Home Buying Advice (Bay Area, where else?)
Replies: 65
Views: 4861

Re: VHCOL Home Buying Advice (Bay Area, where else?)

Some people argue that this is sustainable and prices will keep rising, because the bay area is such an incomparably valuable place to be. I think it's the opposite. Not incomparable, but rather comparable to other major economic centers around the world where prices have been rising rapidly and pr...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech
Replies: 59
Views: 4636

Re: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech

So the biggest risk of tech is really as far as I can tell, age discrimination. When does this start happening (40s? 50s?) and how does one mitigate this? Is the solution to move off the technical track and move to management track? Or just simply set ridiculously high salary targets with the plan ...
by visualguy
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement - Fear of the Unknown
Replies: 34
Views: 3623

Re: Retirement - Fear of the Unknown

If you get some satisfaction and enjoyment from your job without too much stress, then why not keep working for a few more years? No point in rushing into early retirement unless you really don't want to work anymore. The perception of the passage of time really depends on how much you do with your ...
by visualguy
Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to bond funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 3683

Re: Alternative to bond funds?

If you are bothered by the small drop in your bond fund, wait until the stock market takes a dip! Seriously, if you don't like fluctuations in the markets, sell your stocks and bonds and buy insured certificates of deposit. It's fine not to want to lose principal on your fixed income, but still be ...
by visualguy
Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to bond funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 3683

Re: Alternative to bond funds?

CD ladder of 3 year term or less. Yields are close to total bond index funds and no ER. Current yields for brokered CDs are 1 year 2.1%, 2 year 2.5%, 3 year 2.7%. I split my bond AA up with about 1/2 of fixed income allocation in total bond index fund and the rest in a CD ladder. Since the yields a...
by visualguy
Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 124
Views: 11727

Re: Why International again?

I would invest in the ex-US index if it was indeed a good way to participate in the economic growth of the world outside the US. The problem is that this is not the case. For example, I'd love to have a piece of the growth of India and China. Alas, buying their stock markets doesn't get me that beca...
by visualguy
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal Bond Fund NAV and interest rates
Replies: 19
Views: 1612

Re: Municipal Bond Fund NAV and interest rates

I hear you. That is my underlying concern. While this not an emergency fund, you never know what life will throw at you. It would be nice to know that I could pull out this cash in 7 years or so without suffering a significant hit in my principal. Tempted to move to Vanguard Municipal Money Market ...
by visualguy
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal Bond Fund NAV and interest rates
Replies: 19
Views: 1612

Re: Municipal Bond Fund NAV and interest rates

My understanding is that you may need to hold it for close to twice the duration to get your principal plus interest based on the original yield. This is what could happen if interest rates keep going up. Bond funds aren't a good place to be in a rising interest environment from my perspective, and ...
by visualguy
Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this a housing bubble?
Replies: 71
Views: 8302

Re: Is this a housing bubble?

Yep. They have been telling us that "its a bubble!" in SF, SD, LA, and Honolulu for the last 40 years. We still enjoyed 9% appreciation and 6% rent growth, year-over-year, this includes the corrections !!! Properties have doubled in price reliably every 10 years since the 1960s. Makes me smile when...
by visualguy
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the domestic stock market has outperformed international
Replies: 6
Views: 957

Re: Why the domestic stock market has outperformed international

Maybe foreign companies don't engage in stock buybacks as much?
by visualguy
Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this a housing bubble?
Replies: 71
Views: 8302

Re: Is this a housing bubble?

It's a bit higher than expected, but not by a large amount. That area is now very expensive, and there's price compression where the more "affordable" houses have appreciated more than the nicer houses, and, believe it or not, that house is relatively "affordable" for that area.
by visualguy
Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The power of bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 1182

Re: The power of bonds

livesoft wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:28 pm
YTD returns
1.41 VTSAX
0.16 VTIAX
-2.10 VBTLX

:)
Right, and I would add to the YTD returns:

0.4 3-year CD
by visualguy
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to stay in HCOL area?
Replies: 72
Views: 5650

Re: Can we afford to stay in HCOL area?

The difficult part is the need for dual high incomes. With babies or young kids, it becomes more difficult, and some prefer for one parent to stay home or work part-time for a few years. Not really much of an option in the Bay Area unless there's family help or some other early windfall. Also, tech ...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Longest inflation-adjusted slump for US stocks?
Replies: 5
Views: 495

Re: Longest inflation-adjusted slump for US stocks?

With dividend re-investment, I think the worst in recent times were 1972-1985 and 2000-2013 when it took 13 years to get a positive return adjusted for inflation. Not 100% sure - it has been a while since I looked at it.
by visualguy
Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to stay in HCOL area?
Replies: 72
Views: 5650

Re: Can we afford to stay in HCOL area?

The problem with continuing to rent is that house prices keep going up while you rent, and these price increases are quite significant. This also increases the property taxes you'll owe once you buy. Historically, it has been best to just go ahead and buy in the Bay Area as soon as you had the down ...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?
Replies: 59
Views: 6048

Re: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?

First things first -- apply for unemployment, and look for a job. Maybe you find something you love and you stick with it three years or longer; maybe you don't, but so long as you're looking/weighing your options, you might as well take the unemployment while you can (you'd be entitled to it). +1 ...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CDs for Fixed Income
Replies: 15
Views: 1207

Re: CDs for Fixed Income

Hello BHs, With 5 year CD rates currently at 2.8% I am considering moving all of my fixed income allocation to CDs. I would be 100% satisfied with the fixed income portion of my portfolio returning a guaranteed 2.8%. Has anyone else taken or considered taking the approach of CDs for all of your fix...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax reform SALT affecting in Bay Area?
Replies: 67
Views: 9243

Re: Tax reform SALT affecting in Bay Area?

Ryman554 - Just don't cash out simply because you think it's "the top", particularly if you are in the core parts of the Bay Area where prices tend to hold up even in recession. I wouldn't sell an asset there unless I really needed the money or had to get rid of the mortgage. Even when moving out of...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 6762

Re: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds

I dislike bonds too... Having a large amount of money in an asset that isn't even likely to keep up with inflation post tax is very hard to swallow. I don't want to put everything in stocks because of the risk of a very long bear market or multiple successive bear markets with short-lived recoveries...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD vs Bond funds in 401k
Replies: 9
Views: 518

Re: CD vs Bond funds in 401k

Seems reasonable to me, and that's what I do (CDs in 401k as well as other places). Fortunately, my 401k plan offers a brokerage link, so this is possible.
by visualguy
Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand HCOL and valuations
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Re: Help me understand HCOL and valuations

EnjoyIt wrote:
Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:41 pm
Is there really no ceiling?
Some major economic centers in other countries are even more expensive both in absolute terms and relative to median incomes in those areas. Hence, even if there's a ceiling, we may still have a long way to climb to reach it.
by visualguy
Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax reform SALT affecting in Bay Area?
Replies: 67
Views: 9243

Re: Tax reform SALT affecting in Bay Area?

People with large SALT were typically hit by AMT, so the impact of the SALT deduction changes isn't really as significant and widespread as one would think.
by visualguy
Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand HCOL and valuations
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Re: Help me understand HCOL and valuations

In some of these areas there are affordable housing requirements for developers, so a certain percentage of units in developments (condos/townhouses) sell way below market prices to people who qualify. This helps, but doesn't solve the problem completely, of course.
by visualguy
Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 4913

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Ok, doesn't matter, the larger point is invest in what you are comfortable, don't think you are going to outsmart the bond market by trying to pick a time to stay out and then jump in. Yes, I agree. I just don't see the point in jumping into the bond fund market - I'm not advocating timing. I would...
by visualguy
Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 4913

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Knowing nothing about the direction of future interest rates, the best predictor of bond returns are current yields, as of friday TBM index has a 30 day SEC yield of 2.93%, and an average duration of 6.1 years. The best 5 year CDs in the market has a rate of 2.5%. Only with the CD you are guarantee...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 4913

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Poster lack_ey and others, who know the math, say even in a continually-rising environment you would come out ahead of where you would have been had yields not risen at around two times the average duration. It may be you didn't fully realize it, which is completely understandable because few peopl...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 4913

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

The point is, unless someone has a crystal ball that tell them exactly when rates are going to rise and when they will stop rising, there is no way to stay out of bonds and into stable value / CDs without risking either losing additional bond returns, or accepting lower returns in a rising rate env...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads: What are you doing to prepare for dementia/alzheimers?
Replies: 60
Views: 5651

Re: Bogleheads: What are you doing to prepare for dementia/alzheimers?

If you are single and have no kids, things get more difficult. Not sure what's available out there as a solution for managing your finances and your care. There's a big concern about fraud and abuse as mentioned above. Maybe there are siblings, or nieces/nephews, or really close friends. If none of ...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance
Replies: 149
Views: 7382

Re: Long term care insurance

How many people do you think can afford 100K per year for their care in this country. Most of the ones on this forum. Right, but it is interesting to note how much of an exception people on this forum are. 85% of Americans have less than $10K saved for retirement, and the median savings for familie...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 13097

Re: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?

These large sedans are great if you need a spacious and luxurious back seat. Not sure who needs that unless they are being chauffeured or chauffeuring others. They seem popular with real-estate agents, for example. These cars are very long, a pain to maneuver, and they don't handle as well as more r...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371210

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

He was talking about VBTLX (6.1 years), not VBLTX.
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 4913

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

You have just demonstrated why you should not hold taxable bonds in taxable when you're in the 33% tax bracket. http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/tax-analysis.action?t=VBTLX®ion=usa&culture=en_US Paul What's the alternative if you're out of space in tax-deferred? Put everything in munis? T...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 4913

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Surely, sounds that simple. If only the crystall ball is clear on when that rising rate environment is starting and ending. I should know this, since I have been sitting in stable value since 2014 or so with the conviction that rising rate environment is starting anytime, and gave up extra bond ret...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 4913

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Indeed, the SEC yield calculation may be part of it. Regardless, the more worrying thing is what happens if interest rates go up additional times during those 6 years, so you get additional big drops in NAV because the duration of the fund stays at 6 years, and doesn't shrink as you hold the fund. E...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistic:Percent of people in LTC with a surviving spouse?
Replies: 8
Views: 1150

Re: Statistic:Percent of people in LTC with a surviving spouse?

Would divorce be an option that makes sense in such cases?
by visualguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6585

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Consider the source. Alliance Bernstein has a stake in keeping investors buying bonds and bond funds. All this backtestng is bogus because a 1% rate increase when bonds are at 8% is very different than one at 2%. Plus we are in a completely different market environment now with people day trading b...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 13097

Re: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?

I scratched the itch with a Porsche Macan Turbo. It handles very well for an SUV and is far faster than I like to drive. Never once used launch control. Get lots of compliments. However, the car draws lots of envy too. Several snarky comments, a minor keying, a break-in. Worries about parking lot d...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 11438

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Seems risky unless you get umbrella from a provider that doesn't require home insurance. I would also cancel home if I didn't need it for umbrella... If you find a provider for reasonably-priced umbrella without a requirement for home, please post. Standalone umbrellas usually allow you to carry a ...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 11438

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Yes, this Chubb language is good, but it doesn't exist in the policy statement from my company.
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 11438

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Umbrella insurance doesn't go up simply because you don't have a basic policy. What happens is that you have a gap, and their liability remains the same. Now as far as negotiating what costs go into the "deductible" if you should ever need to file a claim may be simpler when insurance companies bat...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 11438

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

There are always risks. Hundreds of thousand of California homeowners who have no earthquake policy are in this situation. How would they manage if an earthquake strikes? I don’t live in CA so don’t know. TravelforFun They would be in trouble if their house is seriously damaged in an earthquake, bu...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 11438

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Some insurance companies let you trim down the home coverage to a minimum - very high deductible, very little for content and expenses, etc. You can do that while keeping the liability at the level required for umbrella. The premiums can be quite low when you do this. Companies vary on this... Farme...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 11438

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

I though homeowners insurance was usually required for umbrella insurance, car insurance too. I'm not able to ascertain this yet. Will talk to my insurance company. TravelforFun They typically require home and auto insurance with a certain minimum liability insurance. If you have auto, but not home...