Search found 245 matches

by visualguy
Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities
Replies: 68
Views: 5044

Re: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities

The main fear I have with 100% stock isn't what happened in 2000 or 2008. I'm more concerned about a Japan-like scenario, prolonged economic stagnation with little growth (or none or negative) and reduced earnings, or some bad events with a radical and prolonged effect that may be hard to foresee no...
by visualguy
Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 235
Views: 22964

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

One of the characteristics of wealth and income even in a relatively more even society such as the US is the incredible extent of the high tails. Probably everyone posting or reading here is fabulously wealthy even by US standards and yet to a man can see plenty of evidence of people much more fabu...
by visualguy
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 9792

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Top99% wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:09 am
My best guess is sideways but that wasn't a choice.
+1

Mostly sideways with ups and downs on the way.
by visualguy
Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2346

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

One of my points was people lease more car than they need or because the lease payment is lower and they can't afford to purchase. Buy the Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic pay cash or pay off in 3 yrs and keep it for 10-15 years. Then you can invest the car payment in your 401k. Why lease a BMW that w...
by visualguy
Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2346

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

Leasing was something the finance gurus came up with to get you to purchase a car every 3 years. There is not benefit to you. Unless like most you can't afford the BMW but you can afford to Lease it. +1 your paying for the depreciation/services + profit for the dealer with a lease. Seriously consid...
by visualguy
Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2346

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

It looks like good reasonably-priced EVs are coming sooner rather than later. If you want a gasoline car now, but plan to switch to an EV in a few years, leasing may make more financial sense than buying for the gasoline car, and then you can buy the EV. There's no generic answer with leasing. A lot...
by visualguy
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are long-term market returns reliable?
Replies: 38
Views: 3884

Re: The myth about long-run stock returns

2. Suppose the analysis were actually convincing (IMO it isn't). So what? Unless there's a *better* strategy available, it's not very actionable information. There are other possible investments... One common example is owning rental properties. Many in my family and my wife's family do that with t...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's talk about your FI # and family income [Financial Independence]
Replies: 165
Views: 14380

Re: Let's talk about your FI # and family income

All in today's dollars: Annual expenses (including taxes): $125K Money needed for retirement in mid-to-late 50s (spouse will be in early 50s): Paid-off house + $4M. Beyond annual expenses, the total needed includes some money allocated for long-term care for the first person to need it, and the seco...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The 10 year car ownership "rule"
Replies: 95
Views: 10226

Re: The 10 year car ownership "rule"

It's a tricky time now because of the technological shift to electric vehicles. If I bought an internal combustion car now, I wouldn't keep it for 10 years... I think there will be compelling EVs in 4-5 years (I don't like any of the ones that are available right now.) Something with the drivetrain ...
by visualguy
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?
Replies: 50
Views: 6888

Re: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?

Apart from the exact number (4% real return), I think this line of thinking makes sense, which is what I have in my mind. OTOH, 4% real is good for me. I was expecting 3% for stocks, and 0% for bonds. Right, but this means that the overall after-tax real return on, say, a 60/40 portfolio will be mi...
by visualguy
Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live
Replies: 102
Views: 7107

Re: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live

There are different reasons why areas are expensive. One reason is proximity to jobs, which may be completely independent from other things that lead to high quality of living. It makes little sense to pay for job proximity if you are retired. I'd MUCH rather live in a place like Colorado than NYC-...
by visualguy
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live
Replies: 102
Views: 7107

Re: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live

I Always equate lower cost of living with lower quality of living. Right, there's obviously a trade-off there. Also, it seems that it's mostly about the cost of housing. Taxes vary, but places that don't get you with one tax, get you with another, or if they don't, then services are poor. Costs oth...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

The S class does not look flashy, especially in Southern Cal, you don't even notice them. They retail for well over $100k, depreciate like a rock; you are in a great market for a nice used Mercedes. These are very safe; you get not only weight/mass in your favor, but high strength steel and protect...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

My wife had to replace a damaged headlight on her BMW recently. The cost of the part was $2,500. This was just a single headlight. When we expressed our shock at the repair shop, the answer was that we should consider ourselves lucky because they had just replaced a $4,000 headlight on a Lexus... F...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

That's a good rule. Still would be too much for me to spend it but I like the concept. So many people way over spend on cars, boats, etc.... Yes, it might be their entertainment but it pushes them having the ability to retire out further and further. Not my style for sure. Right, but optimizing for...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

I am speaking from experience as a car guy who does his own maintenance/repair. I don't know what the dealer prices are, since the only time I ever brought my vehicles to a dealer was for warranty repairs and recalls. Also, I would not lump all luxury brands into the same bag - I was speaking stric...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

Also, as many already pointed out, a used luxury car may be way cheaper than a new non-luxury one, and it may actually be a better value. I can think of several 5-8 year old Lexus vehicles that are going to provide cheap, comfortable, safe and reliable transportation to their owners for many years ...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

The sales person at the BMW dealership told me that in affluent Fairfax County Va. 90% of the vehicles were leased. I prefer to purchase my cars and hold them for a long time. More affluent people tend to like getting a new car every few years, so leasing makes sense for them if the terms are good....
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

LIVE! No guilt feelings. But what is it about the car that is so great? Is it the horsepower or the feeling of having a superior vehicle? Is this something that can't be articulated and must be felt/experienced? Go test drive a Porsche Cayman/Boxster or a BMW M car or a Mercedes S Class, and you'll...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6025

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

Ownership of luxury cars is tied to wealth. You see many of them in wealthy areas, and very few in other areas. For example, many in the LA and SF areas, but very few in the far north of CA. Cars are more than transportation for some people. They are (an expensive) hobby. For example, I enjoy drivin...
by visualguy
Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational fears?
Replies: 23
Views: 1696

Re: Irrational fears?

A more rational fear would be fraud by identify theft. Somebody stealing your money from Vanguard by impersonating you. Yes - that would be a reasonable fear. This is a serious concern for some people I know, and they have the bulk of their financial assets in accounts that don't allow on-line tran...
by visualguy
Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much sooner could you retire with NO property taxes?
Replies: 116
Views: 7192

Re: How much sooner could you retire with NO property taxes?

rebellovw wrote:
Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:14 am
One of many reasons we left the Bay Area - Our property taxes went from over 10K to @1300.
In the Bay Area, you gain much more in appreciation than you lose in property taxes.
by visualguy
Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Employer Paid Disability Insurance
Replies: 20
Views: 1256

Re: Risks of Employer Paid Disability Insurance

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:59 pm
There's always risk when anything is linked to employment. This is why I got life insurance outside of work. Same with disability insurance, I got mine through IEEE.
Would you be able to give us some idea of what your individual disability insurance costs?
by visualguy
Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Employer Paid Disability Insurance
Replies: 20
Views: 1256

Re: Risks of Employer Paid Disability Insurance

You can call the insurance provider and ask. Employer-provided disability insurance is rarely portable or valid after you leave the job. In general, employment and insurance (health, disability, etc.) shouldn't be tied together. It's pretty much the opposite of how things should be... If you get ser...
by visualguy
Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Employer Paid Disability Insurance
Replies: 20
Views: 1256

Re: Risks of Employer Paid Disability Insurance

I think that good disability insurance is worth having. Disability isn't a rare event... For example, things like spine problems (disc herniation, etc.) can easily happen and make it impossible for you to work, at least for a while. Employer disability insurance has its limitations, as you mentioned...
by visualguy
Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3603

Re: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?

I don't think the Lexus LS500 is significantly less complex than the Benz S560. Also, the LS500 has an all-new twin turbo V6 engine and an all-new 10-speed transmission. I'm not sure you can say that the Lexus will be more reliable than the Benz in this case. In terms of keeping for 10 years... A lo...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3603

Re: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?

This thread is not about the rare cars but rather two very common cars. There are often cars which sell for above MSRP but that is the very rare exception. Plus, I have seen incredible discounting on those too. The above MSRP sticker is sometimes just hoping to catch a sucker but in reality they wi...
by visualguy
Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3603

Re: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?

Is this a recent thing you speak of? Other than specific models, occasionally, I have never heard of people not getting some meaningful percentage off their purchase. 5-10% is common but 15-20% is not unheard of for some models. No matter how wealthy one is few people like overpaying for a car just...
by visualguy
Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3603

Re: 2018 Merc S560, 2018 Lexus LS500 Discounts?

It's hard to get much discount on new models because of the (temporary) supply/demand imbalance. If money isn't a constraint, then does it really matter if you get a few percent in discount or not? Just buy it if and when you want it. If money is a constraint, then why spend this much on cars? These...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

No kids, together but not married for various legal reasons including a situation such as this. Her money is protected in tax sheltered accounts that the Supreme Court has said are protected even if she had to file bankruptcy. There are tons of strategies for becoming indigent while still protectin...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

I did not say you don't need to plan for it. I suggested you do not need to plan for 5 to 10 years of it. First few people will be able to save enough for even 2 or 3 years. For those of us on this site, the question is how many years in a nursing home do you plan for. If someone wants to save enou...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

Is working an extra decade of your healthy years when you have the money to pull of early retirement a "good situation to be in" just because you have an irrational fear of what the last few unhealthy ones might be like? Guess what, even if you end up indigent in a nursing home 99% of the country w...
by visualguy
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

If you need nursing home care (not assisted living), and you choose a facility that accepts Medicaid, you need enough money to private pay for 2 or 3 years to get into a "decent" facility. That can be $8K to $12K per month. That number can differ slightly depending on area of the country. After tha...
by visualguy
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

I read these topics and articles and just laugh every time. I often wonder how many people here take this stuff seriously and are putting off early retirement or retirement in general because of this. You have to be declared indigent before Medicaid starts to pick up the tab on your nursing home bi...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

I read these topics and articles and just laugh every time. I often wonder how many people here take this stuff seriously and are putting off early retirement or retirement in general because of this. You have to be declared indigent before Medicaid starts to pick up the tab on your nursing home bi...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

Nope, can't be, because eventually medical costs would consume all an average person's income. Something has to give before we reach that point. What's happening is health care is growing to consume a steadily larger fraction of the GDP. At some point that has to stop. But it can't stop abruptly be...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

At 65 a good medicare supplement, the Medicare part B premium, and Medicare part D drug coverage can easily run $400 a month for each person. If you add it some things like deductibles and drug co-pays $500 a month each is not an unrealistic figure. That would be roughly $12,000 a year. If you mult...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

I don't expect anything to come to the rescue other than trying to make sure I have enough money for realistic health care and long-term care expenses. It's too easy to be in denial about this because it's so crazy and so out of whack with what's going on in the rest of the world. It means working m...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6453

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

I can't speak for sdsailing, but I believe the point is there are (and certainly will be) a large amount of 65 and older Americans who won't have $404,253 to spend on healthcare. Many will be living on Social Security and not much else. So if the premise is that a 65 year old couple will have to sh...
by visualguy
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life at crossroads. What would you do ?
Replies: 198
Views: 17205

Re: Life at crossroads. What would you do ?

Isn't just health insurance well over $20K/year and increasing rapidly? Moving to an LCOL area doesn't help with this (maybe makes it worse because of fewer choices). Just various health-related expenses for the rest of life (45+ years) of a 40 year old couple can approach or exceed $2M in today's d...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 6277

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

There are nice cars that don't cost way too much; for example, an Acura TLX. Is it really worth spending the extra few tens of thousands (almost double) on, say, a BMW 5-series which is admittedly a nicer car? Would you really want to keep a BMW for 10 years, and what would be the expense/hassle of...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8011

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

The market will always reach a new high as time marches on but it sounds like you know this already. It's important to realize that this is not some rule of economics. It may or may not happen, and it may or may not happen within a time frame that's relevant to you. For example, the Japanese Nikkei...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 6277

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

I know some people are into cars, and I used to be one of those as well. However, at least in my case, I discovered that a car truly is almost entirely a tool, and a tool which is subject to constant wear and tear, so not worth spending too much on, and nice to replace before it deteriorates too muc...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life at crossroads. What would you do ?
Replies: 198
Views: 17205

Re: Life at crossroads. What would you do ?

Kenkat wrote:What exactly is old tech?
In the Bay Area, that means almost anything that people were doing in tech 10+ years ago. :(
by visualguy
Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 276
Views: 23815

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

House + $5M seems pretty safe for retirement in the 50s. I know people do it on much less, but I don't know how the numbers work out for them. You have to make all kinds of assumptions that I'm not comfortable with to make it work on much less than that. Regular expenses add up very quickly - proper...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32982

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

1966-1982 was a really bad period of runaway inflation and zero real returns in the US stock market (and horrible real returns in bonds). Fortunately, this was a unique period. Not really comparable to what is going on with ex-US where it performs poorly during much more frequent long-term periods o...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32982

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Well, after reading through nine pages on this topic I have to say I agree with you. My take away is that nobody really knows what the optimum asset allocation is. Having said this, I think I would agree more with what Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab and TRP do with their retirement funds rather than li...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32982

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

I think the relative performance of USA markets vs. other markets,especially those in Continental Europe ,over the last 100 years or so reflects some of the results of the two World Wars. Perhaps if there isn't another such disaster soon Europe will strengthen relative to the USA. The problem is th...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32982

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

If as a result of advertising and advice to the public (and creation of new non-USA investing funds) to increase investment allocations towards having more non-USA funds and stocks there might be enough additional or new money flowing in from USA investors to boost valuations and hence fund prices ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32982

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

But in the end, if you are going to make a bet, you gotta decide, will the US outperformance over the long-run continue or are we just at one end of the pendulum swing? Are you suggesting that it could be a 116 year long pendulum swing that we went through, and now it may start swinging the other w...