Search found 613 matches

by visualguy
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 11138

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

The concern about changes for the worse in the ACA or its elimination is definitely a big issue for early retirees. One thing that I never see mentioned, however, is that this concern shouldn't be specific to retirees or people who don't have employer insurance... Yes, it's worse for them than for p...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 43
Views: 3291

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

I dont own any international. Used to years ago and got rid of it all. Same here. I had it years ago, but then got rid of it all after researching it. Realized the long-term returns had been relatively lousy, and with too much volatility for the returns. I was still keeping it for a while hoping to...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Market Volatility? (Foreign stocks in freefall?)
Replies: 12
Views: 1534

Re: International Market Volatility? (Foreign stocks in freefall?)

The relatively low long-term returns of ex-US is a bigger problem with that investment than volatility...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Life in retirement - what did you do today?
Replies: 194
Views: 16557

Re: Life in retirement - what did you do today?

I was retired for a couple of years, but then went back to work. It's not difficult to fill time. No issue with finding things to do while retired, although a few of them cost money. The problem for me was a sense of waste of skills and education. I kept in touch with colleagues from my age group wh...
by visualguy
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 13410

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

$10M is ridiculous. If we use the traditional 4% rule, $10M results in $400k/year. Bogleheads tend to be a financially conservative group, CAPE10 is relatively high, and real interest rates are near historic lows, so let's say 3% is the new 4%. That's still $300k/year. Anyone who thinks $300k/year ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I am STUNNED over how much help my friends recieved with house purchase!
Replies: 47
Views: 3722

Re: I am STUNNED over how much help my friends recieved with house purchase!

It's almost a necessary thing in VHCOL areas... I covered about half the house cost for my son and his wife, which enabled them to start a family sooner than they would have been able to otherwise. That financial help makes a huge difference in life when received as a young adult. If you want to hav...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement
Replies: 74
Views: 7025

Re: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement

The drops in birth rates (2%-3%) aren't that huge, and immigration needs to be factored in as well as births. The article cites the study, but doesn't mention the percentage drops, instead making exaggerated statements like "Millennials just aren’t having kids".
by visualguy
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New or used Genesis reviews
Replies: 14
Views: 1769

Re: New or used Genesis reviews

I test drove the Genesis G80 Sport. Definitely good value for the money, and a good luxury car. However, it's not a bargain BMW or anything like that. The differences between that car and, say, the BMW 540i are clear - interior quality, electronics, handling, weight. I find the Germans (5-series, E-...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20248

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I'm not sure why either. I've been trying to understand for nearly a year on this forum. The minds on this forum are very bright, much smarter than me. I have learned a ton in a short time. But people on here will insist to invest in inferior assets by nearly every single metric except liquidity. T...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20248

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Real estate. Banks give you the money to buy the property (trying asking a bank to write you a $400K check to buy $500K of Apple or Amazon stock), tenants provide the money to build your equity, and you legally don't pay any taxes on your income. Things just cannot get sweeter than U.S. real estate...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20248

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

You sound like the person who picks one or two individual stocks and gets a good return, and declares stock picking is a good low-effort activity that doesn't take much effort to get right. Of course some people do that and feel that way. But you live in an extremely atypical world where "most" of ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20248

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

So what should we invest in besides stocks? Direct real estate - rental properties. No easy money here. Rental properties take time and effort. They often return a lot less than their proponents state. If you know this business, perhaps. If you don't - look elsewhere I strongly disagree. Owning ren...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1114
Views: 87358

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

AFAIK, the only situation where you or any other driver using EAP wouldn't be able to save themselves is if they weren't paying attention and/or weren't conscious. EAP is extremely easy to override with a relatively small amount of force, which can drop the car down to TACC, or completely into manu...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1114
Views: 87358

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Your comments are interesting. That is what is known as accident reconstruction. This case may eventually be tried before judge and jury so we may be wasting our time here. Key point is when should driver have become aware that car was heading for barrier? Probably when it started to accelerate. An...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1114
Views: 87358

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Don’t understand your small fraction of a second comment. There were a full six seconds that the drivers hands not detected on wheel, which implies he had at least six seconds to disengage autopilot and move car back to correct lane. No, it doesn't imply that at all. You are assuming that the car w...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1114
Views: 87358

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

jdb - at 70MPH you are going 34 yards per second - that's well over half the length of an olympic-size swimming pool. You are going to crash into the barrier in a small fraction of a second. Good luck.
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1114
Views: 87358

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

I am reading comments but not understanding. The Tesla autopilot is in beta mode as manual explicates. Eyes on road and hands on steering wheel at all times. That should not be so difficult for drivers to understand. All the so called autopilot crashes seemingly could have been easily avoided if dr...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Rate Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 4037

Re: Rising Interest Rate Strategy

No point in taking the risk with bond funds - it's extremely unlikely that there's anything to be gained. There's the double whammy of the Fed raising interest rates and also ramping up quantitative tightening at the same time. Sleep well with CDs and stable value funds (or individual bonds) instead.
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50656

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

The average property tax in NYC is not the number your cited. That's the property tax on a median-priced home in NY State. Good luck with that in NYC... That is correct. I made a mistake and quoted NY STATE instead of NY City... I edited my post above but not fast enough :) Anyway it's $5000-$7500 ...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50656

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

No I'm correct... Huge swathes of the coast are not HCOL. The average ANNUAL property tax in America is $2,197. You might think the 8 million people in New York City all pay high property taxes, but you'd be wrong. The average property tax in New York City is $4,738. My $1000/month was ridiculously...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50656

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

One nice thing about living on 6k a month is your income taxes are low. :) $1k month for property taxes is too high for 95% of areas.... If you must live in the 5% HCOL areas then yes you'll need more. Look, you live in San Fran or somewhere. Your costs are higher. That's fine, you can legitimately...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50656

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Have you actually tracked your current "regular expenses"? Because in my experience, they don't add up very quickly. Utilities and food and car/home insurance don't cost that much... let's say $2000 a month, which is high for most people. Now, property taxes are hugely variable, as is health-care. ...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3044

Re: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

Means testing is firmly resisted by many politicians because they fully understand that the test level will have to be set quite low for it to make any difference in the economics. Not sure how many would be for or against it, but I wouldn't bet against it because a case could be made for it, and t...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50656

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

It seems like no one is ever really content with what they have - as soon as they reach a huge amount of net worth for retirement, I see people moving the goalpost further out. Right, but there are good reasons for that. There is a lot of uncertainty around health care and long-term care. The older...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3044

Re: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

Burying the lead... The Social Security Wage Base isn't rising high enough/fast enough. Too many are maxing out. In order to remain solvent, high earners (and their employers that pay the other half) need to pitch in more. ...Or add a surtax like they do with Medicare wages above $200k. Furthermore...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3044

Re: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

That's not a surprise... SS has been expected to start dipping into reserves this year, and continue doing so until they are depleted around 2034 at which time it will start being able to pay only 75% of obligations unless some changes are made before then. I don't rely on SS in my retirement planni...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?
Replies: 273
Views: 12486

Re: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?

But instead I'm seeing a very tired cardiologist imagining the endpoint of the road not taken I think that describes many of us in middle age or later, which is the reason this thread generated so much activity... Imagining the endpoints of roads not taken, rethinking major past decisions, wonderin...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?
Replies: 273
Views: 12486

Re: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?

You want to switch to an academic career as a law professor in your 60s coming from a different career in a different field? Are you serious? :shock:
by visualguy
Thu May 31, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12462

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

This kind of situation is an exception, but it isn't extremely rare. I call it the "too rich for a regular job, too poor and/or young to retire" situation. There's no general solution - people handle it in different ways. One important thing is to avoid blowing the money away on failing businesses. ...
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8291

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

No it doesn't. I need $100k purchasing power pretax as retirement income. Average tax 20%, so I need $80k purchasing power for retirement. Rampant inflation, my $100k is only worth $50k in purchasing power (inflation reduced my purchasing power by half)...lucky me, I invested all that $100k on TIPS...
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8291

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

TIPS, pretty much allows me to put my money under the mattress (safety) and not worry about inflation - magic mattress. But TIPS don't really keep up with inflation post-tax, so you still lose to inflation, right? TIPS keep up with CPI definition of inflation, so it keeps up with inflation. If you ...
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8291

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

gilgamesh wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 4:55 am
TIPS, pretty much allows me to put my money under the mattress (safety) and not worry about inflation - magic mattress.
But TIPS don't really keep up with inflation post-tax, so you still lose to inflation, right?
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8291

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

The best way to hedge (actually, profit) from inflation is to hold fixed, low interest debt on buy and hold real estate. Every year, you continue to pay the lender in dollars that are worth less and less by the year. Don't make this more difficult than it needs to be ! :wink: Direct real-estate ass...
by visualguy
Tue May 29, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8291

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Direct real estate holds up nicely with inflation. I like 35% stock, 50% direct RE, and 15% fixed income.
by visualguy
Sat May 26, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 118
Views: 10668

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

Ex-coworkers may help, or they may see you as competition, hence a threat. Things are rarely simple with people.
by visualguy
Thu May 24, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10485

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

Because the interest earned on the bonds keeps going up also. I like getting a raise, even though I am not working. How are you getting a raise? The yield goes up on the bond funds, but the NAV goes down, so you earn a larger percentage of a smaller amount. Isn't it a wash, and you get pretty much ...
by visualguy
Thu May 24, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12437

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

I am very curious about where those who are doing regular jobs live in Bay Area if a two tech/physician family can't afford an entry level home. Even big tech companies have a lot of administrative and supportive positions. Good question... I wonder about that myself. I think it's a combination of ...
by visualguy
Thu May 24, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12437

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

This. Also, Death by suicide is 1.7x general population, over 2x for women physicians = ~400 deaths a year. Right, but not sure it has much to do with money pressures. It is one of the most depressing professions around, unfortunately... I'm glad some people are able to do it - I wouldn't last a da...
by visualguy
Wed May 23, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances
Replies: 83
Views: 7891

Re: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances

Here's my long term care plan: https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/10/health/david-goodall-australian-scientist-dies-intl/index.html I have no intention of enduring Alzheimer's in any form or fashion, and would be gone long before LTC would be required. I don't personally consider such a minimal existence ...
by visualguy
Wed May 23, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12437

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

Great point and I can see that potentially happening. On the other hand why should I be motivated by a massive expense. How does having an expensive house make my life better? How is working full time day in and day out just to pay down that expense make my life better and my family's life better? ...
by visualguy
Wed May 23, 2018 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 118
Views: 10668

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

I appreciate both of your contributions to the thread and you both mean well, but you're contradicting each other. I've seen similar messages on other boards. There are people who say that it is bad to be technical after 40 and one should absolutely be in management if at all possible. Others will ...
by visualguy
Mon May 21, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1405

Re: Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?

I ran across an article that claimed that over the last 100 years, over any 10-year period, stocks did better than bonds 89 percent of the time. Over 20-year periods, stocks beat bonds every time and never failed to beat inflation: https://www.cibcwg.com/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=82cfb962-f8...
by visualguy
Sun May 20, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20248

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 9:55 pm
I also invest in commercial real estate, my own business, fine art - in addition to stock funds.

I don't do any bonds.
+1

It's not a good idea to put everything in the stock market, but that doesn't mean that it makes sense to put a lot of money (or any money) in bonds.
by visualguy
Sat May 19, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good time to buy a house or wait it out
Replies: 21
Views: 2035

Re: Good time to buy a house or wait it out

finite_difference wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 2:14 pm
I am amazed by how CA RE just keeps going up. There’s apparently 0 new supply, but demand continues unabated. How will it end?
New supply isn't 0, but it doesn't keep up with demand. A LOT of people from the rest of the country and the world want to live in CA.
by visualguy
Sat May 19, 2018 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20248

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

rjb112 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 10:21 pm
So what should we invest in besides stocks?
Direct real estate - rental properties.
by visualguy
Thu May 17, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12437

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

This sounds like buying yourself a prison that keeps you working full time/overtime for many years to come. I would hate to live that kind of life just for a house. It's a strong motivator to achieve something exceptional. It's hard to be strongly driven to do new things when life is too easy. Rega...
by visualguy
Wed May 16, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10485

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

Something to note... Bond funds are self-correcting. The reason the NAV is down is because the yield is increasing. So they are starting to pay larger and larger dividends, which over time, will make up for the short-term loss in NAV. Yes, but that takes a really long time, particularly as yields k...
by visualguy
Tue May 15, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12437

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

Our salaries are nowhere near that. We are definitely not complaining- just looking for insight into how others have handled the situation. I realize our great circumstances make it easy to be like “quit your complaining” but honestly that probably applies to anyone posting on this forum just to di...
by visualguy
Tue May 15, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12437

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

Alas, it is tough to have our finances called "middle of the road" with a stupidly high income, no debts, and a net worth that puts us in the top 3% for age amongst physicians but maybe that is the reality in the Bay Area. Yes, that's the reality in the SF Bay Area, but not just there - it's like t...
by visualguy
Mon May 14, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are bonds really needed - why not 100% stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5635

Re: Are bonds really needed - why not 100% stocks?

This is a fairly misleading statistic, given that roughly 80% of the time period used here encompasses one of the greatest multi-decade bond bull markets in US history. Interest rates on the 10 year Treasury dropped from ~15% in the early 1980's to ~3% today. One doesn't need to be a clairvoyant to...