Search found 177 matches

by visualguy
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 132
Views: 7313

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

This really is cherry-picking a time where International stock is currently performing way below its expected return. Case and point: As a federal Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) investor, I was stunned when I came across this long-term returns charts (since TSP inception). (See: http://www.tsptalk.com/r...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another bay area housing thread..
Replies: 54
Views: 3126

Re: Another bay area housing thread..

Follow your local housing market, find the right balance of value/price for you, save while living there, flip that house and upgrade homes in a few yrs when the time is right. You have time to not buy your "forever" house right away. Climbing the housing ladder doesn't really work in the...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another bay area housing thread..
Replies: 54
Views: 3126

Re: Another bay area housing thread..

If your jobs are highly stable, take the plunge and buy a decent single family home. You are unlikely to regret it, and it will most likely be one of the best financial moves you ever make. It is stressful, but that's life in Silicon Valley, and it does pay off eventually. The longer you wait before...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 132
Views: 7313

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Whether it is appropriate or not to judge investments based solely on their past return should not even be a question. It's simply not appropriate. That is what anyone with a passing knowledge of investing should know. (My comment had nothing to do with Bogle's knowledge of investing.) The whole Bo...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Genesis
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: 2017 Genesis

From past history with shopping for the Genesis the negatives were Awful depreciation Poor interior material quality after a few years Poor dealer experience because you are servicing at the same shops as a $10,000 model Hyundai stigma and cachet not a luxury brand Also, they don't handle like the ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

This is a fairly common argument. I think the only thing I would say to that is, if that US outperformance rate were to continue, the US economy would be something like 70+% of the global market cap - that seems rather unlikely to me. FWIW, in the late 1980s, the US economy was less than 30% of the...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Genesis
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: 2017 Genesis

Value luxury or cheap luxury is a tough sell. Not sure if the economic principle of inferior good directly applies, but many folks that can afford that much can afford more and may not want to be perceived as cheap. I don't think it's primarily a perception thing. You do get what you pay for with c...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

as of today (7/23/2017), if you had invested $10,000 in both funds on 4/29/1996, you would currently have $56,371 in your Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund, which would be more than double as much as the $27,422 in your Total International Stock Index Fund. Mid 1996 is when I started investi...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Steve Dunn 's remarks underscore how much the classic, often occurring "how much international" debate really matters, originally found at: http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/t/162377.aspx Order of importance As a rather sluggish slice and dice type, I think that issue v...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Genesis
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: 2017 Genesis

It's way too heavy... I think the Germans are worth the extra money if you can afford to pay a bit more. It's not a "bit" more money, you can buy a Genesis AND a Lexus ES350 for the price of one of the Germans. The 750i weighs 100 lbs less than the G90 with the V8, but is smaller and cost...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Looking at the last 30 years, except for a few short periods, international stocks would have just been a drag on overall portfolio returns. 30 years is a lot of history. I can assure you that what I was reading in 2007 and 2008, before the financial crisis, was that International Stocks had better...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Genesis
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: 2017 Genesis

It's way too heavy... I think the Germans are worth the extra money if you can afford to pay a bit more. Hyundai/Genesis has made a lot of progress, and they may be able to compete with the Germans some day, but not yet.
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Be glad you aren't Japanese. Also, be careful not to confuse outcome with strategy. Just because it worked out for you in this one instance doesn't mean it was the right decision, and it wasn't unless you have a magic 8 ball. If a Japan scenario happened in the US, then my stock market index portfo...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 23, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

My mixed portfolio is insurance to buffer the risk of a big, long domestic crash, at a cost that is acceptable to me. The problem is that it doesn't work this way - the US market and economy have a huge impact on others... When the US catches a cold, ex-US catches a flu or even pneumonia. It's very...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking about buying a house in South Bay Area...
Replies: 33
Views: 2506

Re: Thinking about buying a house in South Bay Area...

San Jose is not Manhattan,and it is by no stretch of the imagination one of the great cities in the world.Who do you think is making all those cash offers by the way? The San Jose area is the Manhattan of the technology industry. The amount of wealth in Silicon Valley is staggering - one of the ric...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

As the OP I have to say Good Discussion ! Here's something I think about. Virtually all of the target date and target risk fund managers have a considerable percentage (maybe 25-40%) of equities in exUS stock. Most of the all-in-one allocation funds (including Vanguard LifeStrategy and Fidelity Tar...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking about buying a house in South Bay Area...
Replies: 33
Views: 2506

Re: Thinking about buying a house in South Bay Area...

Earthquakes,relatives cannot pay the rent,housing bubble that will come back to earth.Even the Bay Area has it's limits. An earthquake that will affect significantly real estate pricing in the Bay Area is an extremely unlikely event. There is no housing bubble in the Bay Area - many offers are cash...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

I thought the point of investing was to take risk and be exposed to earnings growth as it occurs? If you weight until earnings growth occurs you will have bought after that is reflected in prices. A good investment has to provide a good return within a time period that's reasonable. Life is short a...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking about buying a house in South Bay Area...
Replies: 33
Views: 2506

Re: Thinking about buying a house in South Bay Area...

I can't imagine more overpriced real estate right now then bay area. Absolutely no way I'd buy into the current bubble. 1+mil for crappy little houses in a super HCOL area that would not rent for $1000 a month in most areas in the U.S. These kind of anomalous home prices are unsustainable and almos...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

ex-US has not been able to achieve reasonable earnings growth in many years. 17 years is a LONG time for stagnation. US has been able to grow earnings. That's the difference. A bet on ex-US is a bet on earnings growth where it hasn't been seen in almost a generation.
by visualguy
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7304

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

The thing that bothers me about ex-US is the poor performance this century. It hasn't returned much since 2000. Lots of volatility for not much return over such a long period of time. Still, P/E is high which makes me skeptical that returns will suddenly increase radically and compensate for this lo...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 02, 2017 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lease New Car?
Replies: 28
Views: 2805

Re: Lease New Car?

I really do not see a reason to finance a car unless you drive one for 10+ years and know how to do maintenance. Yes, that is true with cars that have good lease deals. Leasing often is the better way to go. However, if you do keep your cars for 8+ years, and you get lucky with reliability, there i...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Insurance Question
Replies: 8
Views: 696

Re: Health Insurance Question

It is difficult to estimate what costs for health insurance will be until a resolution in Washington takes place. Best to estimate on the high side as it is a trend for deductibles and out of pocket expenses to be increasing. Even if a resolution in Washington takes place, whatever they decide can ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I move abroad to minimize health care costs?
Replies: 80
Views: 6113

Re: Should I move abroad to minimize health care costs?

Those who work for an employer that covers your health care without you needing to know the details, the U.S. is a great place for healthcare. Not really... If you get seriously sick, you can't keep your job, and you lose your employer insurance - you get thrown into the individual market with a ma...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?
Replies: 228
Views: 24938

Re: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?

The individual insurance market is a concern for everyone, even employed people who get group insurance from their employer. Early retirement and layoffs aren't the only scenarios. If you get seriously ill (cancer, auto-immune disease, etc.), you are likely to lose your ability to do your job, and u...
by visualguy
Mon May 22, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)
Replies: 216
Views: 19352

Re: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)

Now, would I pay more for a ticket on a train that would get me there at the same time, but was pulled by an engine that could, but would not, go faster? No. It would seem a pointless waste of money. Same for cars. You have a point, but it isn't that simple. A luxury car is more fun and pleasant to...
by visualguy
Fri May 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 7518

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

But we shouldn't assume that the Bay area will always be booming in the way it has done or that its particular share of tech will always be dominant. The forces of commoditization are everpresent. It's not a given that people will always pay $700 for a new iphone as opposed to $100 for some generic...
by visualguy
Wed May 17, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 7518

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

I think your analysis is spot on. My Megacorp has a de facto hiring freeze in the USA and all the new jobs are going to China. Why? - People work hard over there. Nights, weekends. The convention is to work weekends in order to 'earn' any national holidays. - Engineers have the same degrees, MS, Ph...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)
Replies: 216
Views: 19352

Re: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)

Just as an example, one adaptive LED headlight on the BMW 5-series is $2,000. Just as a counter-example, one HID headlight on my wife's RX350 is $1700 (aftermarket ones are more like $1100-1200)--I'm sure the LEDs on the newer models are more expensive. That coupled with a tendency for them to leak...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 7518

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

Do you mean you think property in SV will appreciate at a faster rate than other locations? I worry that it might be a bubble of sorts, which is why I get nervous thinking about buying at current prices. It's a supply/demand imbalance, not a bubble. There are enough people with a lot of cash to buy...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 7518

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

The problem is if you need another comparable job at some point, there are a lot more of them where you are than in Austin (In terms of making 250k+ with 5 yrs experience). Some people would drastically prefer living in San Jose to Austin in terms of weather, the beach, etc. this may not apply to y...
by visualguy
Mon May 15, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)
Replies: 216
Views: 19352

Re: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)

The problem with owning luxury cars is the cost of maintaining that lifestyle over the long term. Most people don't do it just once. They buy/lease one for themselves and one for their spouse repeatedly every few years. Over time, this adds up to literally hundreds of thousands of $$$ more than buyi...
by visualguy
Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Porsche Lease
Replies: 56
Views: 4581

Re: Porsche Lease

Jack FFR1846 wrote:you do have to be able to accept that you can ride home in the flatbed with your scrap metal on the back.


True, but I'd be even more concerned about riding to the hospital in an ambulance...
by visualguy
Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Porsche Lease
Replies: 56
Views: 4581

Re: Porsche Lease

I'd say you are doing yourself a disservice if you own a high performance vehicle like and don't stretch its legs every once and a while. The Porsche Club of America runs high performance driving events where you can get on the track with an instructor. Autocross is another option (time trials on a...
by visualguy
Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Porsche Lease
Replies: 56
Views: 4581

Re: Porsche Lease

I've been there... Owned a Cayman GTS for a little over a year (drove 4K miles). I bought new and sold rather than leasing because the Porsche lease terms wouldn't have been good. When I bought it, I actually thought I would keep it for a long time, but after a few months it became clear to me that ...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in International Index Fund?
Replies: 39
Views: 3992

Re: Why invest in International Index Fund?

20 years is a long time for poor results. It's long term, not short term - life is too short to wait for even longer than that to see a decent return. There is no guarantee that the same won't happen in the US, but it has mostly done better than that over periods of 20 years in the past. Yes, that's...
by visualguy
Thu Dec 29, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 19066

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

One day does not a market make ! Agree, but investing is not a foot race or sprint, it is a decades long marathon and only those who have the persistence and fortitude will stick it out. Sure, if you're lucky enough to have a lot of money to invest when you are young! If you're middle aged or older...
by visualguy
Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 19066

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

I was trying to draw your attention instead to the fact that your own example seems to be a reason no investor should ever be invested 100% in their domestic stock market. The problem is that if a Japan scenario happens in the US, investing in ex-US won't save you. When the US catches a cold, the w...
by visualguy
Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 19066

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

As I mentioned, only partially tongue in cheek, I fully expect foreign stocks to now take off. Good for the rest of you still hanging on! :sharebeer They may take off, but then go back down as they've been doing for a couple of decades now. By the way, in principle, US stocks could do the same over...
by visualguy
Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay the Course in the Next Bad Market?"
Replies: 32
Views: 6222

Re: "Stay the Course in the Next Bad Market?"

The best thing about a bear market is that I know that a bull market is right around the corner...someplace. Not necessarily true - this is not a law of physics or even economics... It's just an assumption that we make based on past behavior of the US stock market. It may hold until it doesn't. Als...
by visualguy
Mon Sep 26, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: has anyone leased a luxury/sport car to get it out of their system?
Replies: 45
Views: 4787

Re: has anyone leased a luxury/sport car to get it out of their system?

I did and it was a waste of money. I regretted it after 18 months. Same here. Bought a new sports car, and sold it after a little over a year. It was fun for a while, but then the novelty wore off, and my enjoyment of the car wasn't worth the hassles and expenses of keeping an extra car. I took a h...
by visualguy
Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 11162

Re: Avoid International?

But that's only a 20 year period, I looked at a 25 year period. I think 25 years beats 20 years. Both suck:) Looking at any 1 period (pretty much no matter how long) can be decepitive in that end events matter a lot. You are much better looking at multiple 20 year periods (ideally including ones wi...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 07, 2016 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 11162

Re: Avoid International?

If an investor is only investing for 20 years that probably means the investor didn't start saving until later in the career, which is of course common. If you look at all the available history there are examples of poor 20 year performance of both US and non-US stocks. Either or both might have po...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 07, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 11162

Re: Avoid International?

Ignoring such a large part of the world economy seems like "placing a bet" to me. I like Vanguards recommendation of finding a spot between 20% and 40% you are comfortable with, and then sticking with it. The problem is that most of the world economies are stagnant (even when they have so...
by visualguy
Sun Aug 07, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 11162

Re: Avoid International?

Never confuse strategy with outcome. If a stock market investment strategy isn't based on past outcomes, then what is it based on? Conviction? Blind belief? If the strategy includes buying and holding some stock index for a really long time (such as 20 years), then you need to look at how this inve...
by visualguy
Sat Aug 06, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 11162

Re: Avoid International?

International stocks have underperformed for the last 20 years, as have all international index funds since their inception. There are no broad international index funds you can invest in that have outperformed the US. There is no proof besides backtests that there was ever any outperformance to da...
by visualguy
Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USA vs. International Stock Index PERFORMANCE. Please reassure Me!
Replies: 25
Views: 2529

Re: USA vs. International Stock Index PERFORMANCE. Please reassure Me!

All based on past performance. It is all based on past performance. As far as the statement on starting on 11/29/2010, I don't think things will look any better if you start on, let's say, 1/1/2007 [but I may be totally wrong!]. Again, what happened in the past decade is not a predictor of what is ...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 29, 2016 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 226
Views: 30895

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

What is your plan? It looks like his plan is to avoid losing his hard-earned money in the stock market... Getting a zero return beats a negative return. We can't say he's wrong because we don't know when the market will bounce back and rise persistently. Maybe in a year or two, maybe in 5, or 10, o...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 28, 2016 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets always bounce back. But do sectors also?
Replies: 15
Views: 1626

Re: Markets always bounce back. But do sectors also?

Markets have not always bounced back. That is a US-specific bias. +1 I think many aren't aware of this... Some never bounced back, some never bounced back persistently, and some bounced back after an unacceptably long period of time - you can find examples of different variants of this around the w...
by visualguy
Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best reason why the market will always go up?
Replies: 66
Views: 8740

Re: Best reason why the market will always go up?

On the other hand, if we don't believe the market will go up than what is the point of all of this? I can be a consuming debt ridden maniac and on my way to the Masserati dealership and after going to the mortgage lender to buy my McMansion. I am sure some would do this with my income and assets. N...

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