Search found 522 matches

by visualguy
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 29
Views: 2995

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Poster lack_ey and others, who know the math, say even in a continually-rising environment you would come out ahead of where you would have been had yields not risen at around two times the average duration. It may be you didn't fully realize it, which is completely understandable because few peopl...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 29
Views: 2995

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

The point is, unless someone has a crystal ball that tell them exactly when rates are going to rise and when they will stop rising, there is no way to stay out of bonds and into stable value / CDs without risking either losing additional bond returns, or accepting lower returns in a rising rate env...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads: What are you doing to prepare for dementia/alzheimers?
Replies: 39
Views: 2957

Re: Bogleheads: What are you doing to prepare for dementia/alzheimers?

If you are single and have no kids, things get more difficult. Not sure what's available out there as a solution for managing your finances and your care. There's a big concern about fraud and abuse as mentioned above. Maybe there are siblings, or nieces/nephews, or really close friends. If none of ...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance
Replies: 127
Views: 5403

Re: Long term care insurance

How many people do you think can afford 100K per year for their care in this country. Most of the ones on this forum. Right, but it is interesting to note how much of an exception people on this forum are. 85% of Americans have less than $10K saved for retirement, and the median savings for familie...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?
Replies: 103
Views: 9755

Re: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?

These large sedans are great if you need a spacious and luxurious back seat. Not sure who needs that unless they are being chauffeured or chauffeuring others. They seem popular with real-estate agents, for example. These cars are very long, a pain to maneuver, and they don't handle as well as more r...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

He was talking about VBTLX (6.1 years), not VBLTX.
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 29
Views: 2995

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

You have just demonstrated why you should not hold taxable bonds in taxable when you're in the 33% tax bracket. http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/tax-analysis.action?t=VBTLX®ion=usa&culture=en_US Paul What's the alternative if you're out of space in tax-deferred? Put everything in munis? T...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 29
Views: 2995

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Surely, sounds that simple. If only the crystall ball is clear on when that rising rate environment is starting and ending. I should know this, since I have been sitting in stable value since 2014 or so with the conviction that rising rate environment is starting anytime, and gave up extra bond ret...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 29
Views: 2995

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Indeed, the SEC yield calculation may be part of it. Regardless, the more worrying thing is what happens if interest rates go up additional times during those 6 years, so you get additional big drops in NAV because the duration of the fund stays at 6 years, and doesn't shrink as you hold the fund. E...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistic:Percent of people in LTC with a surviving spouse?
Replies: 8
Views: 1080

Re: Statistic:Percent of people in LTC with a surviving spouse?

Would divorce be an option that makes sense in such cases?
by visualguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6288

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Consider the source. Alliance Bernstein has a stake in keeping investors buying bonds and bond funds. All this backtestng is bogus because a 1% rate increase when bonds are at 8% is very different than one at 2%. Plus we are in a completely different market environment now with people day trading b...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?
Replies: 103
Views: 9755

Re: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?

I scratched the itch with a Porsche Macan Turbo. It handles very well for an SUV and is far faster than I like to drive. Never once used launch control. Get lots of compliments. However, the car draws lots of envy too. Several snarky comments, a minor keying, a break-in. Worries about parking lot d...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10785

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Seems risky unless you get umbrella from a provider that doesn't require home insurance. I would also cancel home if I didn't need it for umbrella... If you find a provider for reasonably-priced umbrella without a requirement for home, please post. Standalone umbrellas usually allow you to carry a ...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10785

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Yes, this Chubb language is good, but it doesn't exist in the policy statement from my company.
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10785

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Umbrella insurance doesn't go up simply because you don't have a basic policy. What happens is that you have a gap, and their liability remains the same. Now as far as negotiating what costs go into the "deductible" if you should ever need to file a claim may be simpler when insurance companies bat...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10785

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

There are always risks. Hundreds of thousand of California homeowners who have no earthquake policy are in this situation. How would they manage if an earthquake strikes? I don’t live in CA so don’t know. TravelforFun They would be in trouble if their house is seriously damaged in an earthquake, bu...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10785

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

Some insurance companies let you trim down the home coverage to a minimum - very high deductible, very little for content and expenses, etc. You can do that while keeping the liability at the level required for umbrella. The premiums can be quite low when you do this. Companies vary on this... Farme...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 156
Views: 10785

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

I though homeowners insurance was usually required for umbrella insurance, car insurance too. I'm not able to ascertain this yet. Will talk to my insurance company. TravelforFun They typically require home and auto insurance with a certain minimum liability insurance. If you have auto, but not home...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

Bond funds are far more liquid and significantly easier to manage while having the same risks as brokered CDs, which btw are part of the bond market though it might not be immediately obvious. How are bond funds easier to manage? Is there a document somewhere that explains how to manage the duratio...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

I should add -- you don't know this will happen. We're not talking about Fed overnight rates, but the yields of 5 year bonds (or 10, or so on), and those are set by bond market participants with wisdom, political connections and advanced degrees, who don't like to lose money. You're saying that you...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

The reason I mentioned the 2D-1 is that many have the misconception that they would get their principal back with the interest based on the original yield after D even in a rising interest rate environment. I know that I wasn't sure myself about how long that would take until reading the cited study...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16853

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

Life is filled with unknowns. Most of what you list can be mitigated by insurance. I don't stay up nights worrying about fire, flood, heath etc. That's what insurance is for. Nor do I worry about the future of government programs. What's the point? That is not something I can control. As I wrote, y...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16853

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

Much of what one "needs" depends on what one wants to do at FI, once there is a basic floor/daily expenses are covered. Do you want to travel the world, and only in first class? Do you want to sit by a pool and do crosswords? Do you want to volunteer? Do you want to hike? Do you want to eat out 5 n...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16853

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

Worry motivates action. Without worry, it's harder to get motivated, and easier to delude yourself. Emotions motivate people - worry, fear, ambition...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

Yes, they are looking at a rising rate environment such as a 0.5% increase per year. This is more like what we are dealing with - repeated gradual increases over time, not a single big increase.
by visualguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

CDs are a great alternative. Better than bond funds of similar duration and yield because with a bond fund if yields keep rising you may need to wait almost double the duration to get your principal back with the interest based on the original yield. Can you explain that? Why almost double? I thoug...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

Some 401(k) plans have a "brokerage link" where you can invest in brokered CDs among other things. Also, many 401(k) plans have stable value funds (which may or may not have a competitive interest rate). Brokered CDs are essentially bonds. They have similar change in value due shifting interest rat...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16853

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

Sadly, I agree with the responses that say $10M or 100x yearly expenses. That's feels about right. In my case, I'm burning through about 70k per year, and I could live for another 50 years (best-case). Add in another $1M for long-term care or medical expenses, and I need about $4.5M. Man, I ain't e...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8361

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

I think many people here tend to avoid the other side of the equation. I'm pondering retiring at 53 in a few months. I do believe that a 4%+ inflation withdrawal gives me a historical 95% success rate for a 30 year time period. But I'm going to go with 3.3 for a while, just in case The other side o...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

CDs are generally not available in 401(k)s. For a lot of us, that's where fixed-income is kept. We don't want them taxable or to use up valuable Roth space to hold them. Some 401(k) plans have a "brokerage link" where you can invest in brokered CDs among other things. Also, many 401(k) plans have s...
by visualguy
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8361

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

The historical US experience has been exceptional. The SWR in other developed markets was lower in almost every case, often much lower: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2014/03/04/does-international-diversification-improve-safe-withdrawal-rates True, and the SWR for the US or US+ex-US m...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 7005

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

CDs are a great alternative. Better than bond funds of similar duration and yield because with a bond fund if yields keep rising you may need to wait almost double the duration to get your principal back with the interest based on the original yield.
by visualguy
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6634

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

It's hard to imagine interest rates going anywhere but up considering current government policies and the economy, but who knows for sure. I'm mostly out of bond funds - happy with the stability of CDs and stable value funds for fixed income. I get enough heartburn from the equities part of my portf...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking career advice - Software Engineer
Replies: 34
Views: 2710

Re: Seeking career advice - Software Engineer

Learning new skills on your own may be possible but until you actually have some real world experience with it I suspect that you will have a hard time finding someone that will hire you to do it. The problem is that in addition to being able to hire someone with work experience in the new skill a ...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can’t decide if we’re getting close to FIRE without knowing health care costs
Replies: 30
Views: 2271

Re: Can’t decide if we’re getting close to FIRE without knowing health care costs

Do what you gotta do. Don’t be curtailed by all the naysayers, do your best and what is best for your family and situation. Moving overseas is about the only ‘responsible’ option. Pretty sad. Unless you are very wealthy, the best and most "responsible" thing to do is to keep working if possible... ...
by visualguy
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8361

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

In my view, the bigger concern is the uncertainty about expenses, not SWR. I'm ok with a WR that always worked in the past, and I don't fear too much that I will happen to be in my retirement just when the markets change so radically as to perform very differently from the way they did in the past. ...
by visualguy
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?
Replies: 50
Views: 4105

Re: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?

By definition TIPS do not have inflation risk. The problem is that they still don't keep up with inflation after taxes. Neither did other assets, including stocks , during the high inflation of the late 1970s. I haven't done the math myself, but my parents tell me that the rental real estate they a...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Financially secure, horrible workplace but just can't FIRE
Replies: 54
Views: 6316

Re: Financially secure, horrible workplace but just can't FIRE

Isn't there a big demand and shortage in healthcare? Wouldn't it be possible to find another (better) job as half of your ex-colleagues did?
by visualguy
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horseman Of Your Portfolio

Especially after we all read the same study showing us that spending more that $50k doesn’t make us happier? $50K just about covers health insurance (ACA without subsidies for a couple), property taxes, and utilities for many... Move to someplace better. :) Maybe someplace worse - someplace better ...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?
Replies: 50
Views: 4105

Re: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?

dbr wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:42 pm
By definition TIPS do not have inflation risk.
The problem is that they still don't keep up with inflation after taxes.
by visualguy
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horseman Of Your Portfolio

Ron Scott wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:08 pm
Especially after we all read the same study showing us that spending more that $50k doesn’t make us happier?
$50K just about covers health insurance (ACA without subsidies for a couple), property taxes, and utilities for many...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Larry Swedroe writes that the four long-term dangers faced by retirees are: "... historically high equity valuations, historically low bond yields, increasing longevity and, as a result, the increasing need for what can be very expensive long-term care." I'm surprised not to find inflation included...
by visualguy
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

I think what will happen, out of necessity, is the comeback of the extended family. Who would be in this extended family? Not sure there are many cases where anyone other than the children would take on this care. If we're talking about the children, then the first question is "are there children?"...
by visualguy
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving HCOL state for financial reasons
Replies: 48
Views: 4853

Re: Leaving HCOL state for financial reasons

HCOL is great if you are truly wealthy, a titan of industry, or childless. For the large majority of highly educated early 30s professionals trying to start a family, it is a bad deal relative to second tier cities. Having kids is indeed the most challenging aspect of life in VHCOL areas like the B...
by visualguy
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young vs Middle Aged?
Replies: 32
Views: 2872

Re: Young vs Middle Aged?

Middle age = 45 to 65 or 40 to 60.
by visualguy
Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2937

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

You lose interest when locking into a 5 year CD if interest rates go up. Maybe you bail on the CD, half way to term, paying some penalty, probably the bank will let you, though they don't have to. But how do you decide when to bail on a CD and go for a new one? When rates go up to 3? 3.5? Easier sa...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2937

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

onourway - your quote from the Wiki isn't addressing repeated interest rate increases. With regular increases in interest rates, things are a lot worse, unfortunately... As I mentioned, you may need to wait almost double the duration just to get the principal plus the interest based on the low origi...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2937

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

Loss of principal in the short-term only matters if you have mis-matched your fund's duration to your timeline at which you'd like to withdraw. I understand that people probably do this, but this is also why this is one of the most basic pieces of advice anyone receives when they ask about bond inv...
by visualguy
Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2937

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

1.4% vs 2.8%, you get double the yield for a modest increase in risk. Many of us prefer this for a safe investment. Remember inflation, that 1.4% is a guaranteed loss after inflation. I for one only use highly safe things like CDs for an emergency fund. For investing, a bit more risk seems okay esp...
by visualguy
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - Am I missing something
Replies: 84
Views: 5714

Re: Bonds - Am I missing something

I think the term "bonds" confuses a lot of people because they think it means bond funds, when it really means "fixed income". Many here invest in other types of fixed income (including CDs), and this is not "frowned upon". There are perfectly good alternatives to bond funds.