Search found 329 matches

by visualguy
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9453

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

CD's seem less risky right now by just about any measure. You can get 2.5% for 5-years with FDIC protection. Right, which is the same as the yield on the total bond market index fund. In taxable accounts, I don't see a good reason to hold much in taxable bond funds, but tax-exempt funds may still m...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!
Replies: 102
Views: 10447

Re: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!

I would just get another new car now, and sell the damaged one once it's "repaired" (which is likely to take a long time with Tesla). For people who have such considerable resources (like the OP), why stress over any of this? Life is truly too short to sweat this kind of loss when you don't need to ...
by visualguy
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BMW to Chevy Bolt?
Replies: 30
Views: 2317

Re: BMW to Chevy Bolt?

Don't forget to try the seats on the Bolt first. Many find them to be uncomfortable. The seats are the weakest aspect of this car, and killed it for me when I was considering it.
by visualguy
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12694

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

The only conclusion is to save more than 25X expenses because of two reasons. One is that 4% may very well not be safe-enough, and the other is that expenses may change radically. I'm more worried about the expenses. Say I save enough for a 3.2% withdrawal rate which I find to be safe-enough. I stil...
by visualguy
Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12694

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

But lets look at your "Catastrophic case" 50% loss, 2% gains for 8 year, and then 10%? That isn't really that bad. Look up japan were we are off by ~33% 28 years later. If that oft-referenced Japanese investor had bought a world market portfolio they would be doing fine. If they had followed the vo...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disability Insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 394

Re: Disability Insurance

One advantage of being employed by many large company/organization employers is the commonly provided disability insurance. Disability can be a tricky thing where it affects your performance at work and costs you your job before you even have a chance to get on disability, or you may just happen to...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why make more money?
Replies: 134
Views: 12868

Re: Why make more money?

As long as your job provides satisfaction, a sense of achievement, and a connection to people, why retire and lose all that? Money is only one aspect of a career.

Also, my observation has been that retirement from fulfilling careers tends to accelerate mental and physical decline.
by visualguy
Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?
Replies: 84
Views: 5477

Re: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?

Who (and how) is paying for the added costs if leasing is financially beneficial? It's not that simple... Manufacturers (such as BMW) subsidize the residual on the lease in many cases, thus making the terms attractive to the customer. There is something in it for the manufacturers - they don't do i...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?
Replies: 84
Views: 5477

Re: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?

Some have stated concerns that we will transition to electric vehicles over the next ten years or so, and therefore the safest move, financially, is to lease, and not get stuck with an internal combustion engine. So I wondered what that transition period might look like. One thing that occurred to ...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?
Replies: 84
Views: 5477

Re: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?

BMW in particular never ceases to amaze me in their inability to figure out how to keep a valve cover gasket from leaking oil everywhere. They don't really care that much about what happens beyond the warranty+CPO warranty period, which is 5 years. They never claim that their cars are very durable....
by visualguy
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 284
Views: 19544

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

The key card is supposed to be a fall-back. It doesn't work like a typical keyless entry system. You have to put it on the b-pillar to open the door, and then in a specific place in the car to start the car. A proper keyless entry system like on other cars is far superior and easier to use.
by visualguy
Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 284
Views: 19544

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

The lack of controls other than the touch screen kills the Model 3 for me. Too difficult and distracting to use. Tesla went way too extreme with this touch screen. It's crazy when you look at the details of how you would actually need to use this car... Requiring a cell phone to open the doors, usin...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?
Replies: 84
Views: 5477

Re: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?

For cars with good lease deals in states with high sales taxes (like CA), you actually need to hold the car for 6+ years to see a financial benefit from buying and then trading in. Even at 6 years, it's kind of a wash unless you manage to sell the car privately for significantly more than trade-in v...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Returns this month
Replies: 19
Views: 1700

Re: International Returns this month

The long-term record of ex-US index investment shows significant underperformance, so I stay away from it, but if you decided you like it for some reason, then not sure why you should change your mind based on last month. It's the disappointing performance over many decades that should alarm you, no...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.
Replies: 51
Views: 5370

Re: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.

Stocks are up today and bonds (VBTLX) fall. Stocks were falling yesterday and bonds also fall. Has everyone holding bond funds simply made peace with the fact that bonds are practically useless until there is a 25%+ drop in the market? I can't convince myself to keep holding bonds. Do you have a lo...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.
Replies: 51
Views: 5370

Re: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.

Holding a bond fund such as VBTLX doesn't make sense to me either. A ladder of 5-year CDs pays the same interest without the volatility. Not sure under what scenario holding the bond fund would be better, and it can be worse, so I don't bother with that. How am I going to buy the 350k of CDs I woul...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.
Replies: 51
Views: 5370

Re: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.

Holding a bond fund such as VBTLX doesn't make sense to me either. A ladder of 5-year CDs pays the same interest without the volatility. Not sure under what scenario holding the bond fund would be better, and it can be worse, so I don't bother with that.
by visualguy
Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Concern re bond funds and current interest rate trend
Replies: 22
Views: 1557

Re: Concern re bond funds and current interest rate trend

Your stock allocation is a separate issue from the investment choice for your non-stock holdings. I share your concern about bond funds, so I don't invest in them. There are alternatives... Money market accounts, CDs, and stable value funds. I don't like volatility in the "safe" part of my portfolio...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

Good choice - the BMW 5-series multi-contour seats are definitely among the best in terms of comfort. Not that great in terms of holding you well when taking corners fast, but comfort is more important in any car that isn't a track car, and this is not a track car. I don't like the aggressive bolste...
by visualguy
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

Good seats are expensive, so cost cutting is common there. The least expensive sedan that I know with comfortable seats is the Acura TLX.
by visualguy
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

In my view, the biggest international development is the rise of China as a major world power. The effects of that can be profound. Even just from an economy size perspective, China is expected to surpass the US by 2030. By 2050, the US is expected to be #3 behind China and India. It will most likel...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5890

Re: Help me understand what happen with the new law and ACA subsidies

The exact effects are hard to predict. I don't think anyone here can tell how the insurance companies will react exactly. If the subsidies are cut, the insurance companies will have to compensate for this somehow. The only actionable thing I can think of is to plan to allocate even more money for he...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I'll never understand this kind of argument. You don't use that logic for individual stocks or sectors, so why countries? We don't say 'well healthcare has done well and utilities poorly over the last 50 or 100 years so you should tilt toward one over the other.' Makes no sense for a passive invest...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Ex-US indexing hasn't worked well in the past - under-performance over long periods of time as mentioned above in this thread. It's possible to argue about the reasons and whether the next century will be like the last century, but the reality so far is what it is, and it's a huge red flag. So shou...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6488

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

Some may say "keep a low profile", hogwash, make yourself known to colleagues and management alike - some call that networking, others call it being a "team player". Sometimes you need to be careful with this... Getting on the radar screen with management can sometimes lead to extra scrutiny and be...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Always perplexed by how many Bogleheads insist on not picking single stocks to simply take what the market will bear. Yet have no issue holding a US only or US dominant portfolio that's so far out of line with global market proportions. Mr. Bogle himself (or even Warren Buffet for that matter) like...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

The Accord beats the Camry with infotainment: Apple Carplay and Android Auto. Probably no need to get Navi. Yes, but I wish Honda didn't omit the bird's view parking cameras. I use that pretty much every time I park - very useful. I don't know why they included pretty much everything you can think ...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Growing old without kids or younger caring relatives
Replies: 106
Views: 19776

Re: Growing old without kids or younger caring relatives

Truly depressing to think about this, and very easy to be in denial. If I remember correctly, about 15% of people never have children in the US, so this is a fairly common problem.
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

The index is in theory the average, it is the total stock market. So if the average active fund beats the index, you are providing more than the entire stock-markets growth, in growth. Fees aside, the average active fund should match the indexes (but of course, there are winners and losers). With p...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4237

Re: Offensive Valuations

4. What is the alternative? 2% yielding bonds? But if not stocks then what? This is the $1000 question(s) When I ask friends and family about that, they say rental real estate for taxable investments... It does seem to work for them. I'm in both stock and real estate, and I'm certainly more worried...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

FIREchief wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:32 pm
visualguy wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:24 pm

Some say go active... Evidently, in Europe even the average active fund beats the index:
How is that possible mathematically?
Why wouldn't it be possible mathematically?
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Not sure about that... Historically, when the markets in the US catch a cold, international markets catch pneumonia... The US did worse than international markets in 1907, 1929, 1958, 1969, 1973 and 1987. I guess you could restate your claim to "sometimes when the US catches a cold, international c...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

inittowinit wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:22 pm
I market weight so am already 50/50 and will stay the course.

Int'l exposure helps me weather all this angst about US valuations.

Cheers to diversification :sharebeer
Not sure about that... Historically, when the markets in the US catch a cold, international markets catch pneumonia...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I haven't completely given up on international. I own shares in VIGI, the international dividend appreciation fund by Vanguard released last year. It should weed out the low quality companies. I saw it mentioned when it was released. Looked interesting, but the international index has beaten it so ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6488

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

visualguy, But, all those strategies assume that your employer and/or industry is surviving. Which may or may not be true by the time that you reach 50. The whole industry could be on the downward trend. It is not safe to be overly invested in an employer and/or industry either. The bottom line is ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

To be fair to international stocks that 100 years includes world wars. But yeah all the data I saw showed broad international indexes failing to perform as well as the US over whatever long term period chosen, war or not. International stocks were cheap in the past too, I really think something str...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

kosomoto wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:43 pm
International underperformed in most 20 year periods I could find before 2008 as well.
Correct. Actually, international has under-performed even if you look at much longer periods. I need to look up that study that was quoted here a couple of months ago. It went back something like 100 years.
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6488

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

The key to survival in private industry after 50 is not to be easily replaceable by someone younger. In general, the reality is that companies don't want to hire or keep older workers unless they bring some value that can't be easily obtained from younger people. There are strategies for improving y...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7379

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

The problem is that international (ex-US) has done poorly over very long periods of time, so the track record is frightening. I would have to look it up, but there was a thread here a couple of months ago showing performance over very long time frames (starting at 100 years ago or so), and it didn't...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?
Replies: 25
Views: 2140

Re: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?

How much does your stable value fund pay?

I use stable value funds and CDs instead of bond index funds. I've been trying to understand the rationale for going with bond index funds, but so far I don't see how that makes sense if you have access to a good stable value fund and/or CDs.
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2222

Re: Very confused by Bonds

OP, The Alan Roth article mentioned in this post is somewhat relevant. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=3568320#p3568320 Even from that article, it's not clear why you would pick a bond index fund (such as BND) vs CDs. If interest rates go up or something else happens that hurts bon...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3326

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

I wouldn't listen to the CNBC noise. I would take time to learn about the mathematics of a bond fund, instead. Here's an exercise I did a while back to convince myself that a total-market bond index fund is nothing like a total-market stock index fund. I simply simulated what would happen if histor...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3326

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

There's definitely a lot of concern about bonds: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/wealth-manager-warns-on-bond-markets-creating-the-biggest-financial-crisis-of-our-lifetime.html I mostly stay away from bond index funds. I don't want to take risk with the non-stock part of my portfolio. Stable value f...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

The Accord beats the Camry with infotainment: Apple Carplay and Android Auto. Probably no need to get Navi. Yes, but I wish Honda didn't omit the bird's view parking cameras. I use that pretty much every time I park - very useful. I don't know why they included pretty much everything you can think ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

All-electric is fine - definitely looking forward to that! Turbo 4-cyl has nothing to do with that, and I would definitely go with a V6 instead of the turbo 4-cyl for the driving experience and reliability. The Camry V6 is proven to be highly reliable, and the fuel consumption is great at 22/32/26. ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

kjvmartin wrote:
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:25 pm
Agree that these turbos are not a welcome change to the driving experience for most cars.
There's also an impact on reliability with turbos.
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

yukonjack wrote:
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:06 pm
The 2.0 liter engine puts out 252 hp so I’m not sure why one would miss the 6 cylinder.
The Camry V6 is 301 HP. Also, I love the linear smooth response of naturally aspirated V6 engines. The driving experience of a 2L 4-cyl turbo isn't even close...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

....... In general, it's hard to find cars under $40K with really good seats... Why? (This is a serious question. I really don't know.) Cost, I would guess. Good seats aren't cheap, and manufacturers can't install expensive seats on cars at that price level. You start getting the really good seats ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 54
Views: 5549

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

No bird's eye parking cameras on the 2018 Accord. The 2018 Camry has them. I find this to be a very useful feature. Also, the Camry has a naturally aspirated V6 rather than a turbo 4-cylinder. I would take the V6. In terms of seats, reviewers have complained that the seats in the 2018 Camry are too ...
by visualguy
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15966

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Agreed about real estate... Much better investment than stock and bond index funds, particularly when looking at the expected returns of a Boglehead portfolio going forward based on current market conditions. One issue, however, is location, location, location... What if you live in a location where...