Search found 228 matches

by understandingJH
Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

Why must my concern be interpreted that I am a doomsday preparer? I think you are missing the point of some of the above responses. To be clear on how I read things: I don't assume you are a doomsday prepper, but wonder why, given your list of concerns, you apparently are not. Investing in (or maki...
by understandingJH
Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

Here's what I suggest after reading the additional posts. 1) Separate the question of what to do about the future of the world from your AA. 2) For the AA, I think you should put everything in a target date fund, in each account. You are too erratic and prone to over thinking to manage your AA dire...
by understandingJH
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

This might help give an idea of my background: Emergency funds: ~12 months (8% iBonds, 92% Cash @ 1% and 1.5%) Debt: $0 Tax Filing Status: Single Tax Rate: 25% Federal, 4% State Age: 33 Current Asset allocation: 58% stocks / 42% bonds Original Target Asset allocation: 80% stocks / 20% bonds Original...
by understandingJH
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

You're right it doesn't matter at that point (essentially extinction or collapse). I hope that can be avoided. Why must my concern be interpreted that I am a doomsday preparer? I am somewhat cynical and understand your feelings. I see income inequality growing and opportunities decreasing. I think ...
by understandingJH
Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

Even if you are right, I am not hearing how changing your AA will help. Growth is already low and has been for years. I don't think that foretells anything though. I agree, that the low growth of the past 15 years or so in the US does not foretell much. I was making a case for ecological sustainabi...
by understandingJH
Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

I still am not clear on what you plan to do. Invest in dehydrated foods and bomb shelters? If we can't breath the air and have no food or trees what does your AA matter anyway? You're right it doesn't matter at that point (essentially extinction or collapse). I hope that can be avoided. Why must my...
by understandingJH
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

I've been increasingly, and deeply, concerned about the looming hidden costs pertaining to negative externalities produced by the growth provided from stocks I am still not clear what this means even after your explanation Are you saying that you foresee costs that will directly impact publicly tra...
by understandingJH
Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

Thanks for the feedback. I think there is a few points I need to make: I choose 80/20 originally based on all the financial advice found here and elsewhere. Everything pointed to this being a fairly good choice for someone in their late 20s, as I was at the time. It's not as aggressive as a target d...
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

I think it's good to honor and explore your feelings of discomfort. It's better to change your AA when markets are up, instead of when they are slumping. That said, you're early 30s and might regret going too conservative. Perhaps try 70/30 for a year or 2. I've found having a big slug of bonds and...
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

1) 2) This may be irrational. But if you believe that stocks are bad investments for the long term then your willingness to take equity risk is 0. I have not read that book, what are negative externalities? 3) If you can reach your financial goals with a combination of high savings rate and non-sto...
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

So my ability (amount) I can now invest each year has roughly doubled. I'm going from a savings rate of 15% to new one of 30% of my income (dollars saved / gross income). My previous AA was 80/20 stocks/(bonds+cash) since about 2011. I'm in my early 30s. I've never experienced anything like 2008, bu...
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Retirement Planning for the 'Gig' Economy"
Replies: 11
Views: 1336

Re: "Retirement Planning for the 'Gig' Economy"

OP, 2) Year 2, no income. Withdraw some money from Solo 401K and pay 10% penalty. At 0% income tax rate, this is still less than 25% in year 1. Effectively, this person saves 15% in tax. KlangFool Wouldn't the withdrawal count as income? And there is no 0% tax bracket. So it would be 10% + 10%, but...
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Re: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implies over past 5 years?

Therefore, if yields did not change you would expect the NAV to drop gradually over time. The interesting thing is that you can find fairly long periods--a year or more--when the fund SEC yield was virtually unchanged, and yet NAV also was virtually unchanged. The relatively short duration of this ...
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Re: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?

My bad. That makes sense. I agree, VMLTX is not likely a good fit for money that will be spent in a year. I use it as part of a multi-tiered emergency fund that increases risk slightly each tier.
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Re: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?

I first bought in December 2015, added in January, then more in April 2016. Obviously this is a short period of time and timing is everything. The account currently holds about $22,000. Vanguard's basis numbers show an overall short term loss on the holdings of about $4. Ignoring taxes in both case...
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Re: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?

What is roll yield? I tried lookup up the term but see stuff about futures contracts and spot prices. I assume you mean something else by the term? As to getting the about same volatility and better return by the barbell approach with interim term tax exempt and 1% savings... hmm that looks promisin...
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Re: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implies over past 5 years?

It could have something to do with the fact that rates have dropped about 80-90bps on similar duration bonds over the past 5 years. As in, if rates went back up to the point they were 5 years ago, you would see the actual returns become more in line with the SEC yield? Does that make sense? I could...
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 1382

Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) doing better than SEC yield implied over past 5 years?

I have a tiny portion in VMLTX. I started 5 years ago. Today I compared it's performance with a 1% savings account, since I hoped to do better with VMLTX considering it's distribution yield was considerably higher than SEC yield (even though SEC yield is future looking and in theory what I should fo...
by understandingJH
Sun Jan 24, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?
Replies: 15
Views: 691

Re: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?

1) Side income -> You can create Solo 401K and contribute approximately 20% of the profit as an employer. Or perhaps most all of it as an employee. And you can open the Solo 401(k) now and decide on contribution after you see what your W-2 employer does for you by year end. Unfortunately, by side-i...
by understandingJH
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?
Replies: 15
Views: 691

Re: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?

JGoneRiding wrote: about the only thing to do is a) marry a lower earner b)


Until one gets divorced and loses 50% of anything saved while married, but more detrimental has to pay alimony because of the income disparity (sorry if this sounds cynical).
by understandingJH
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?
Replies: 15
Views: 691

Re: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?

If you have the means the pay for your own education but you don't think it's worth your own money to do so then perhaps you shouldn't do it. Some things that are "free" or reduced cost can sound attractive but the test of whether something is worth doing is whether you would pay for it o...
by understandingJH
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?
Replies: 15
Views: 691

Re: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?

Transfer all your money from savings accounts into equity funds. How else can you generate losses? Ha, interesting joke. :) Hmm.. I think international equity needs some re-balancing. I suppose I could invest some taxable funds there and if the knife keeps falling I get to harvest taxes, but if it ...
by understandingJH
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?
Replies: 15
Views: 691

Re: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?

Your taxable investments should have about -3,000 from the capital losses possibly for the rest of your life. :) Not when currently those earnings are from 1% and 2.5% saving/checking accounts. The 401k isn't set up yet at the new company, so before that is available I'll probably be saving some mo...
by understandingJH
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?
Replies: 15
Views: 691

Re: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?

So any ways to reduce MAGI? Did you contribute $18,000 to a retirement account? How about a traditional IRA, would that be deductible? HSA? FSA? Maxing 401k and HSA contributions might get me to the phase-out range for the AOTC, but that depends on how much money I earn in taxable investments and s...
by understandingJH
Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?
Replies: 15
Views: 691

Make too much for tuition tax credits/duductions - alternatives?

Turns out my expected MAGI for 2016 will be above the cutoff for the American Opportunities Tax Credit (which is higher than the lifetime learning or tax deduction options). I'm returning to university part-time while working full time to complete my undergraduate degree. I expect to spend around $2...
by understandingJH
Sat Jan 16, 2016 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Job: Health Insurance PPO vs HSA?
Replies: 4
Views: 464

Re: New Job: Health Insurance PPO vs HSA?

I probably go to the doctor outside of a physical 3-4 times a year, with one of those usually being a specialist. So those visits likely would cost me about $1000 a year on the HSA (opposed to $100 on the PPO). The $1k number seems high for 4 visits. You should only be charged a negotiated rate. Ma...
by understandingJH
Sat Jan 16, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Job: Health Insurance PPO vs HSA?
Replies: 4
Views: 464

Re: New Job: Health Insurance PPO vs HSA?

furwut wrote:Under the PPO do you first have to exhaust the deductible before the co-pays kick in? If so then, numbers wise, the HSA looks much better.


For the PPO, the co-pays for doctor's visits and medications are effective immediately, the deductible/oop apply to inpatient/outpatient, MRIs, xrays, etc.
by understandingJH
Fri Jan 15, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Job: Health Insurance PPO vs HSA?
Replies: 4
Views: 464

New Job: Health Insurance PPO vs HSA?

I'm starting a new job soon that offers both PPO or HSA. My previous job did as well but the out of pocket (OOP) max (6k vs 5k) and premiums were similar enough that I kept the PPO (~$400 more in premiums). At my previous job I used an FSA to help save in taxes. I still have money rolling over on th...
by understandingJH
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How has your Salary performed against inflation?
Replies: 59
Views: 5816

Re: How has your Salary performed against inflation?

blackjack4808 wrote:Here is our hourly wage schedule; Im not good at numbers, does this keep up with inflation?

8/1/15: 34.40
8/1/16: 34.80
2/1/17: 35.20
8/1/17: 35.70
2/1/18: 36.20


(36.2/34.4)^(1/2.5)-1 = 2.06% CAGR. I'd say this is keeping up since inflation it's averaged 2% the past 10 years.
by understandingJH
Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: easy G fund access in your Roth IRA
Replies: 18
Views: 2148

Re: easy G fund access in your Roth IRA

Would this be the best way to use the account? E.g.: Jan 1, 2016 : Put in $5500, 1 year later ~110 in interest ,$5650 total Jan 1, 2017: Put in $5500, 1 year later ~223 in interest, $11,333 total Jan 1, 2018: Put in $3000, 1 year later ~287 in interest, $14,619.66 (stop contributing, only withdrawal...
by understandingJH
Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's been up with TIP funds?
Replies: 26
Views: 3257

Re: What's been up with TIP funds?

Note that perhaps surprisingly TIPS have acted more like corporate bonds---likely liquidity issues and TIPS may not benefit from flights to quality like nominals do. So the diversification benefit with stocks may not be as great Larry Hi Larry, thanks for you response. I can see how in 2008/9 they ...
by understandingJH
Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's been up with TIP funds?
Replies: 26
Views: 3257

Re: What's been up with TIP funds?

[Duplicate]
by understandingJH
Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's been up with TIP funds?
Replies: 26
Views: 3257

What's been up with TIP funds?

Below are all the bonds I'm invested in (except Ibonds). All of them have been trending upwards the past 4 years, but the TIPs fund has been flat, even losing money after 4 years. What's going on with TIPS in general. I am not surprised it has more volatility as it has longer duration (~7 years), bu...
by understandingJH
Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fun game to show how difficult it is to time the market
Replies: 7
Views: 1155

Re: Fun game to show how difficult it is to time the market

I won 5/6 times (failed the 5th time), and the last I had 88,000+. Subsequent plays are much easier if you recognize the time span from previous play ;)
by understandingJH
Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3109
Views: 706535

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Look familiar?

Image


How about this?


Image
by understandingJH
Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1079
Views: 136807

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The above casual observation is not using critical thinking. That's a bit of a hasty assumption isn't it? Previously I posted some questions about this fund with regards to it's ability to minimize fat tails. Clearly I find this fund interesting. However, I couldn't help but feel the "value&qu...
by understandingJH
Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1079
Views: 136807

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Looks like this fund is even more expensive with only QSPNX, QSLIX, and QSLNX available in IRA accounts (fidelity filtered by AQR and alternative funds). So the negatives against this fund grows (price is even worse).

Image
by understandingJH
Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1079
Views: 136807

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

With a passive 80/20 allocation to stocks/bonds, what effect would be achieved by putting 10% of the portfolio into this fund? If adding this fund would the 10% come from stocks? bonds? even or proportional split between them? Would adding this be expected to minimize fat tails? If so how does one q...
by understandingJH
Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Re: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?

I decided on tilts to small-cap and value several years ago, so am sticking with it, but am less enthusiastic in recommending it to others than I was several years ago. I think this is especially true for young accumulators who don't want to spend hundreds of hours learning about this stuff, and fo...
by understandingJH
Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Re: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?

What really makes these approaches work is what's known as "barbelling" A 60:40 portfolio has 90% of its 'risk' concentrated in equities - as we know a 50% decline takes a 100% gain to recover ... So minimising loss to capital in the first place is a good place to start With a more conser...
by understandingJH
Thu Sep 10, 2015 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Re: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?

I have not read his books, but based on his comments here, I don't think LS uses long term bonds for the Larry portfolio. At least in his posts, he takes his risk with small value (or maybe something else now), and uses relatively short duration bonds for stability. He doesn't unless you consider T...
by understandingJH
Thu Sep 10, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Re: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?

This is the first time I get what Larry Swedroe's style is all about and I see he does something similar to what I was attempting but probably a much sounder approach as I'm sure he knows much more than me. He has a lower allocation to stocks, but riskier ones, (also 30% in this case), but short te...
by understandingJH
Thu Sep 10, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Re: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?

Hmm... the Monte Carlo with 0 withdraw is interesting, especially looking at the histogram (i.e. cumulative distribution with a 95% CI). This is the first time I get what Larry Swedroe's style is all about and I see he does something similar to what I was attempting but probably a much sounder appro...
by understandingJH
Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Re: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?

That's the tool I'm using (well the backing-testing version anyway). :)

And, Kevin, it only goes back to 1985, or 1972 depending on how one uses it.
by understandingJH
Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Why not use small-cap index and LT Treasury for the "us stock" component of a portfolio?

Blue = 30/70 (Small-Cap Index / LT Treasury) Yellow = 50/50 (Total Stock Index / LT Treasury) Red = 100 (Total Stock Index) I wanted to do a thought experiment trying to use low or negative correlation to decrease volatility while maintaining about the same amount of return. This chart starts when ...
by understandingJH
Sun Aug 30, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing bond options. Not sure what to do.
Replies: 3
Views: 362

Re: 401K changing bond options. Not sure what to do.

Yeah no brokerage option. It really sucks.
by understandingJH
Sun Aug 30, 2015 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing bond options. Not sure what to do.
Replies: 3
Views: 362

401K changing bond options. Not sure what to do.

My 401k (via John Hancock - yuck) is making the following change: Effective October 16th, 2015, subject to regulatory and other approvals, the sub account investing in the Total Return Fund, will be merged in to the sub account investing in the Fidelity Advisor Total Bond Fund. Based on information ...
by understandingJH
Thu May 28, 2015 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?
Replies: 91
Views: 7821

Re: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?

However, the OP was benchmarking PhD to people with just BS. I don't know about BS-only careers, but statistically a good chunk of them never hit 6 figures, whereas for almost all professional degrees you will hit 6 figures, and it's only a matter of time whether you reach it early career or mid ca...
by understandingJH
Thu May 28, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?
Replies: 91
Views: 7821

Re: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?

Thanks and that's a good point. I am aware of data science being a superset of fields that includes bioinformatics sharing similar skills. That indeed is an option. Did you take Andrew Ng's Coursera class on machine learning by the way?

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