Search found 70 matches

by uberational44
Tue May 15, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: consumer staples
Replies: 10
Views: 1154

Re: consumer staples

I personally think consumer staples are now a bad long-term bet. -consumer staples have been saved by disruption so far, because their scale makes them nearly impossible to compete with -unless you create an eco-system to go after them directly -Amazon has create such an eco-system Unilever and Proc...
by uberational44
Tue May 01, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have experience with the IEX API?
Replies: 3
Views: 399

Re: Does anyone have experience with the IEX API?

I did not know these API's existed. Pretty cool!! What type of data are you wanting out of the API's? Are you comfortable with VBA scripts? Stackoverflow is a great place to ask questions about these API's btw. For IEX I found this: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/47333894/using-iex-api-for-rea...
by uberational44
Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have experience with the IEX API?
Replies: 3
Views: 399

Does anyone have experience with the IEX API?

I have been looking for a way to easily to integrate a stock market API into excel and have been looking at IEX and Alphavantage... Does anyone have any experience with these and hooking them up to excel easily? The "easily" part is important, because I don't want to have to deal with excessive codi...
by uberational44
Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?
Replies: 69
Views: 9950

Re: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?

I have 1 stock of BRK.B to get the Geico 8% discount. I bought it few week before @ 216 for 1 share which saves 32 bucks on my 6 months of insurance on my new CRV. I will be holding this one share since then. But not planning to sell that one share. Since OP post is using the word - instead: I woul...
by uberational44
Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?
Replies: 77
Views: 7572

Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

In my view, GOOG and AMZN are likely to be broken up because they have monopolies, but Apple won't be broken up. Regulated rather than broken up. In the sense that genuine breakups are rare, and it would be killing an American national champion. That's very unlikely in today's international busines...
by uberational44
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TCEHY -- "google" of China ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1921

Re: TCEHY -- "google" of China ?

There was an article in barron's a few years ago about a famous short (and successful) short-seller who said Alibaba's numbers are bordering on fiction. I can't find the article, but here is something similar: http://uk.businessinsider.com/barrons-cover-story-warns-alibaba-50-percent-2015-9?r=US&IR=...
by uberational44
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade
Replies: 79
Views: 10504

Re: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade

Interesting. What the heck were they doing investing in teak and eucalyptus? Teak produces one return every 25 years. So you'll see 0% 0% 0% ... x 24 years. ~115% year 25. Something like that. Agriculture in no way works the same as equities, and its a silly way to invest donor's funds. They should...
by uberational44
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?
Replies: 77
Views: 7572

Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

In my view, GOOG and AMZN are likely to be broken up because they have monopolies, but Apple won't be broken up.
by uberational44
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubbles Everywhere
Replies: 41
Views: 6873

Re: Bubbles Everywhere

If you pull out a graph of stock market performance over very long periods of time - it goes up over time

If you need your cash in the short to medium term, you shouldn't be in stocks.

But if you are investing for the long-term, it really doesn't matter how the market is valued...
by uberational44
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25YR old with considerable amount of cash
Replies: 48
Views: 6765

Re: 25YR old with considerable amount of cash

Something posted this already, but I cannot over-state... Make sure no one except your immediate family knows about this. If people find out, they will try to snuggle up to get their share. People will start asking for loans. People will start asking you to pay for things. Life will be far easier if...
by uberational44
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?
Replies: 69
Views: 9950

Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?

It would be far more tax efficient to hold the stocks as the dividends would be taxed differently...

Obviously, you are be taking a punt that the company will survive after he departs, but the man has had so long to cement it's future that it is sbound to do well even when he's gone...
by uberational44
Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World's Oldest Investment Trust
Replies: 1
Views: 495

World's Oldest Investment Trust

Came across this and thought I would share. Financial history is unfortunately something I find fascinating: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-4735344/The-world-s-oldest-investment-trust-going-strong.html It's about Foreign & Colonial - the oldest investment trust in the world. F&...
by uberational44
Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LEAPS in Europe
Replies: 1
Views: 140

LEAPS in Europe

Does anyone know if you can purchase long-term options for European stocks?

Appreciate this isn't Bogleheads territory, but I find the conversations from this forum more insightful than any other forum..
by uberational44
Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection
Replies: 19
Views: 2059

Re: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection

I would highly recommend the emerging markets ETF by Vanguard. There might be great returns in the Indian stock market, but you might find those returns being eaten up by currency fluctuations... The conventional problem with the ETFs is a heavy weighting towards China. Diluting any exposure to Ind...
by uberational44
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 36
Views: 2912

Re: High dividend stocks as bond substitute?

I think the key thing would be to buy companies which have a very good chance of surviving the coming years of disruption. A lot of high dividend king stocks have been a sensible investment for the past 100 years. But that doesn't mean they will be safe for the next hundred... There are actually ve...
by uberational44
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2571

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

I think there could be a worse scenario in which index investors who don't really understand indexing rush out of the market with the herd during some sort of crisis. Although in this scenario, if you bought more when the price went down, you would be able to get out of the market unscathed... I agr...
by uberational44
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection
Replies: 19
Views: 2059

Re: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection

I would highly recommend the emerging markets ETF by Vanguard. There might be great returns in the Indian stock market, but you might find those returns being eaten up by currency fluctuations...
by uberational44
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 36
Views: 2912

Re: High dividend stocks as bond substitute?

I think the key thing would be to buy companies which have a very good chance of surviving the coming years of disruption. A lot of high dividend king stocks have been a sensible investment for the past 100 years. But that doesn't mean they will be safe for the next hundred...
by uberational44
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 877

Re: All Weather Fund

Do you mean similar to Ray Dalio's fund? I had a discussion with someone about this on reddit a few weeks ago. I think we both agree, if you wanted higher returns, you would have to take on more risk. If you wanted less returns, you would take on less risk. But you can't have it both ways Also, I ha...
by uberational44
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs Really That Safe?
Replies: 26
Views: 2550

Re: Are ETFs Really That Safe?

Volatility is definitely not a problem, nor is a sector best as long as the demographics look relatively solid. For robotics, I think they do. My main issue would be complex and scary derivatives within the ETFs, or the actual ETF companies themselves... Also, I wouldn't be narrow investment if I bo...
by uberational44
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 130
Views: 18534

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

I always think people assume that the longer something has been around the safer it is. GE has been a defensive stocks for the best part of a century, however will it be able to stay a secure investment for the next 20-30 years? It reminds me of Louis XVII in France in 1788. If someone had asked him...
by uberational44
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs Really That Safe?
Replies: 26
Views: 2550

Are ETFs Really That Safe?

ETFs are normally lumped with index funds as fairly safe investments, but ETFs seem far more dangerous. Even Bogle warned about them

What do other people think?

I want exposure to robotics stocks through an ETF, but I'm not sure how happy I would be with my cash parked in one
by uberational44
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 35
Views: 6041

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

What does the forum think? I think the article was written by the same James Mackintosh who wrote in November 10, 2010, "Equity returns will be poor for the next decade". CAGR since then has been 14.28%. The decade isn't quite up yet, by we're over 70% done with it. I think he's a journalist that h...
by uberational44
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Have Experience With Broker Degiro?
Replies: 4
Views: 604

Anyone Have Experience With Broker Degiro?

I have am looking at investing in stocks using degiro does anyone have experience of it?
by uberational44
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit - The Next Black Swan
Replies: 2
Views: 765

Brexit - The Next Black Swan

I would like to start by saying I am non-political when it comes to Brexit. I don't live in Brexit and I am not writing about this from a political perspective.. A few weeks ago, a friend of a friend mentioned about the possibility of an IMF bailout after Brexit. I thought it was bogus, but did some...
by uberational44
Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold?
Replies: 20
Views: 1788

Re: Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold?

"In the short run, the stock market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company."
by uberational44
Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy And Hold Leveraged ETFs
Replies: 5
Views: 500

Buy And Hold Leveraged ETFs

Is there a reason why I couldn't invest in a leveraged etf based on an index such as the Nasdaq during a market downturn and ride out the gains?

Obviously you would have to assess whether you thought the index was undervalued or not based on analysis of the fundamentals, but still
by uberational44
Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 5716

Re: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?

Volatility is not the same as risk...

If you were invested in the S&P and you had a somewhat large cash holding, you could invest more stocks if you experienced a dramatic drop in portfolio value.
by uberational44
Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it me or does everything seem expensive?
Replies: 47
Views: 5633

Re: Is it me or does everything seem expensive?

Dad, who was raised during the Depression, had a saying - "that nickel Coke will be the death of me yet." Everything was expensive to him. haha, that hilarious. I would imagine that growing up in the depression would create steadfast personal finance habits! I'm 25, so not that old... In terms of p...
by uberational44
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it me or does everything seem expensive?
Replies: 47
Views: 5633

Is it me or does everything seem expensive?

I am an index investor, with a tendency towards value investing and some trading.. It seems to me that everything seems expensive at the moment - housing, stocks, bonds Granted I am not a professional investor, but when I look around everything seems overvalued... I was reading a macro hedge fund in...
by uberational44
Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Farmland REITs?
Replies: 33
Views: 4732

Re: Farmland REITs?

This post peaked my curiosity. Please understand that I'm neither against farmland reits nor for advocating the 2 US ones. I only briefly looked at RFM & so clearly not in a position to speak on it in detail. I copied portion of your post that most applied to my comments. My initial take is that an...
by uberational44
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15179

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I have been taking great interest in gold recently and gold mining companies... Has anyone else considered this? I have had a fairly high proportion of my savings in gold since the 1970's. In my opinion, gold mining stocks are for masochists. I think physical gold is reasonably priced at present. H...
by uberational44
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15179

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I have been taking great interest in gold recently and gold mining companies... Has anyone else considered this? I have had a fairly high proportion of my savings in gold since the 1970's. In my opinion, gold mining stocks are for masochists. I think physical gold is reasonably priced at present. H...
by uberational44
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?
Replies: 64
Views: 6836

Re: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?

I don't trade at all, but I do look for opportunities where you can make a very cheap bet on something that has a relatively high probability of happening... An example would be.. if you thought the eu was going to collapse and you owned a 1m+ portfolio, you could borrow a small sum in eu and sell b...
by uberational44
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 27818

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Bogle had been wrong before...

One example that is Michael Burry of big short fame:

viewtopic.php?t=53971
by uberational44
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15179

Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I have been taking great interest in gold recently and gold mining companies...

Has anyone else considered this?
by uberational44
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Farmland REITs?
Replies: 33
Views: 4732

Re: Farmland REITs?

farms
by uberational44
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Investors vs. S&P 500
Replies: 24
Views: 3772

Re: Value Investors vs. S&P 500

I have long been intrigued by the concept of value investing - buying a dollar for $.50 has always seemed to me to be a logical way to make money over the long term. But I was looking recently at the following "collective" portfolio of the top value managers, compiled from their regulatory filings,...
by uberational44
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 10179

Re: Buffett and his $100 Billion in cash [are you increasing your cash holdings]

[moved this post into the existing thread - moderator prudent] Buffett and Munger are reportedly sitting on $100 billion in cash due to a lack of attractive investing opportunities (their prospective). From the best I can gather the total Market cap for Berkshire is around $500 billion. Boglehead c...
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: Building A Warchest

I don't think gold has been extremely negatively correlated with inflation, but I'll let others here check me on this. The basic Boglehead idea is that Stocks in the long run keep up with inflation since companies can raise prices to keep up with it by definition. Gold is ... well, a mess (and agai...
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: Building A Warchest

greg24 wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:43 pm
If I may be so bold, let me restate the original post.

"I have decided on an 85/15 AA. How should I invest the 15% fixed income?"
That doesn't sound as good as warchest though!
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: Building A Warchest

That won't keep up with inflation necessarily. In fact, if there's lots of inflation (and the accompanying high interest rates) your warchest would probably go down in nominal AND real terms. (And in real terms, a lot.) I guess you may want TIPS, but that's another can of worms; read the many TIPS ...
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: Building A Warchest

What exactly is the right time? Do you have some sort of metric to use for this or just when you think it feels right? I'm thinking this is a similar strategy to what Warren Buffett does, no? Warren Buffet gets to play a very different game than you do. He buys whole companies, or at least buy enou...
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: Building A Warchest

If 85-90% of your portfolio is in equities, I wouldn't call the remainder a "war chest". I would call the overall portfolio an aggressive allocation suitable for an investor with a 20 year time horizon or more. If I were you, I would let your "interest in markets and value investing" superecede any...
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: Building A Warchest

I am relatively new investor, interested in index investing and value investing... I have been eyeing up a few opportunities outside of indexes and I want to build up a small reserve that will keep with up with inflation and hold its value if a market correction occurs. My hope would be to pick up ...
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: Building A Warchest

To clarify, I wrote total bond fund twice. This is what I was thinking... Gold - 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares - 20% Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) - 20% Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH) - 20% I plan to buy incrementally Also, this will be 10-15% of...
by uberational44
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Building A Warchest

I am relatively new investor, interested in index investing and value investing... I have been eyeing up a few opportunities outside of indexes and I want to build up a small reserve that will keep with up with inflation and hold its value if a market correction occurs. My hope would be to pick up a...
by uberational44
Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 4585

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

I want to 'be greedy when other are fearful', but I want to hear other people on this... All I can say is, all fears are not the same. The Tech Crash of 2000 was mostly a stock market phenomenon for many investors (unless one was employed in tech or related fields), and was widely recognized at the...
by uberational44
Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 4585

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

I completely agree on changing at later stages of a bear market! Personally don't think I would be able to live with myself as a devoted Buffet follower, selling like crazy during a crash - would be all talk no action I think the capacity to think logically really helps. I used to be a nervous flye...
by uberational44
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 4585

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

My plan has evolved, but I'd say I have stuck with it for at least the last 25 years. I stuck with it through the 2000's . I was about $100K down new year's eve 2008/9 and was able to joke about it. It went down even further through March 20009. I am actually pretty conservative financially, but I ...