Search found 3109 matches

by triceratop
Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 84
Views: 2666

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

Looking at the straight CAPM in portfolio visualizer ... NAESX (Vanguard Small Cap Index) has data going back to 1974. Portfolio visualizer gives me a beta of 1.12 and an alpha of -0.31%/yr (not significant). The rolling regression (36 mo) shows generally elevated beta and extended periods of posit...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 84
Views: 2666

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

I think most people here who know about SmB and HmL understand that small factor refers to SmB. The reverse is not true: if I talk about HmL and SmB very few will understand what I am saying.

Given the discussion has tended towards definitional semantics I'll bow out.
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 84
Views: 2666

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

Well, there is a Morningstar video out there where the example of the disappeared Small-Cap effect re-emerging with the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index is discussed. I didn't make this up. This was also discussed in another thread. The small cap effect is not the same as the SmB factor in the Fama French f...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 84
Views: 2666

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

I have said something similar in the past: As a TSM investor I am exposed to ALL factors, even ones that haven't been discovered yet. Well, no. What you have is a market portfolio where the factors are all cancelled out except for perhaps Profitability/Quality and maybe a whiff of momentum. You hav...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 88
Views: 4185

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

Both you and keyhler made the same mistake: "I think what you care is minimizing the total amount of tax paid", and "Therefore if I pay less taxes I end up with more money." These are incorrect statements. I want to be clear about that since apparently keyhler is not and I want keyhler to get correc...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepayment of SALT Taxes? [State and Local]
Replies: 270
Views: 19719

Re: Prepayment of SALT Taxes? [State and Local]

I removed an off-topic post. It's perfectly fine to discuss various interpretations of existing law and the legality of bunching SALT deductions in various situations. Just not proposed legislation.
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 84
Views: 2666

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

There are papers that do principal components analysis for securities returns and related matters, some who have constructed orthogonal factors to explain returns. It's just that everybody generally prefers factors that are more cleanly defined (e.g. small stocks minus large stocks) rather than sta...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 88
Views: 4185

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

Yes, but efficiency by tax rate is not necessarily the metric to use. I think what you care is minimizing the total amount of tax paid, which is rate*taxable income. Just to make the point by analogy, imagine that you have two routes to drive home along, one along a highway where you get better mpg...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 88
Views: 4185

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

Also, retiredjg made the same point with much simpler math! :happy
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 88
Views: 4185

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

I think what you care is minimizing the total amount of tax paid, which is rate*taxable income. It is not as simple as that. Tax paid is not the right metric either. Money you have in the end is the right metric. There are some very simple examples of paying more tax but ending up with more money i...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 84
Views: 2666

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

The only thing confusing terminology is your post. Factor investors are always talking about factor loads, I.e. the recognition that many long-only primarily-index funds do not achieve full exposure to these factors but only partial exposure. It's not a confusion of terminology, it's a day to day f...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 84
Views: 2666

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

Honestly, you wouldn't say "I'm a factor investor whether I know it or not, because I invest in the market factor?" Actually yes you are a factor investor. That is the whole point of that comment. Granted he should have mentioned BETA, but didn't specifically mention but saying "such as" means exam...
by triceratop
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For ETFs: Fidelity or Vanguard or others
Replies: 14
Views: 1230

Re: For ETFs: Fidelity or Vanguard or others

I have a Vanguard account with VTSAX and VTIAX. Can I move to Merrill Edge? I'm assuming it's better to hold Vanguard funds inside Vanguard. Is that correct? Secondly, let's say after a few months, I decide that buying these individual ETFs is not worth it, should I still keep the existing funds/ET...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2016

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

Perhaps calling changes in P/E "moods" is a tad reductive. It also includes expectations on future earnings, which sometimes are estimated in a rather cold fashion. Fair point. But over long periods, the relationship between speculative market returns (multiple changes) and fundamental returns (div...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2016

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

While trying to steer clear of breaking forum rules on proposed legislation, it's been known for some time that there is a likelihood of changes in the proportion of corporate profits that are returned as earnings in future years. Stocks are priced on future earnings. But any efforts at pricing futu...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend
Replies: 28
Views: 1336

Re: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend

@going--so you are market timing in a sense? Buying on a predictable dividend? But what if you are buying long term --average dollar cost, etc? This is not market timing. Market timing revolves around movements in the prices of stocks. This has to do with the timing of fund distributions. It's not ...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend
Replies: 28
Views: 1336

Re: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend

@tricer--So, good info--thanks. Most stock funds are qualified (as I suggested--do you agree?), bonds nothing (understandable--different asset class), international nothing--who cares. You would agree if you are invested in US equities your dividends are qualified correct? Same tax as cap gains? Mo...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend
Replies: 28
Views: 1336

Re: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend

Estimated 2017 Qualified dividend percentages of Vanguard funds:

Total U.S. Stock Market: 94%
Total International Stock Market: 66%
Total Bond Market: 0%

Taxable bonds will always pay dividends which are fully taxable at one's federal marginal rate. Good luck finding a bond fund which does not.
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend
Replies: 28
Views: 1336

Re: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend

anonsdca wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:35 pm
@tricer---LOL...I will restate--sorry----aren't the three BH recommended funds giving qualified dividends?
No, without exception.

I say that in the sense that all three pay ordinary dividends which are not also qualified dividends.
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend
Replies: 28
Views: 1336

Re: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend

anonsdca wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:26 pm
@tricer--aren't all fund dividend qualified? The idea of missing a dividend payment for a long term buy is wrong.
1) no.

2) you are incorrect. My previous response shows why you are wrong.
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend
Replies: 28
Views: 1336

Re: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend

@tricer? Really, aren't dividends taxed the same as Cap gains? 1) Only if they are qualified dividends. 2) The idea is to avoid paying tax this year . Deferral of taxes is a big advantage, it's called tax efficiency . Simply put, it's better to pay tax on accumulation in 30 years (or not at all) ra...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend
Replies: 28
Views: 1336

Re: Ensuring I don't buy the dividend

anonsdca wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:11 pm
@rob, who cares if you are investing for the long term?
Because we are concerned about after-tax long-term returns. What is identical before tax is not always identical after tax. Like this case right here.
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much did you contribute to your 401k in 2017?
Replies: 117
Views: 6393

Re: How much did you contribute to your 401k in 2017?

I'm 25. I contributed $0. I do not have a 401k. I also contributed $0 to a Roth IRA. Yay.

(To reuse a joke): I was not able to max out my taxable account.
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor: When to diversify
Replies: 22
Views: 1376

Re: Young Investor: When to diversify

OP, I was in a similar financial position to you when I was 23, 2 years ago. Congratulations on being on a sound financial footing. I recommend keeping investing and diversifying to Total International Index (VGTSX) and Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX). You can diversify immediately. I personall...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepayment of SALT Taxes? [State and Local]
Replies: 270
Views: 19719

Re: Prepayment of SALT Taxes? [State and Local]

IT is light gray, if not white, area. Why would the state accept estimatedpayments for 2018 in 2017 ? Clearly at that point all income is future income. You guys help me understand this: - By end of 2017 I make a 10k estimated tax payment for 2018, equal to my estimated tax liability. - By 4/15/18 ...
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 4404

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

OP do you have an actual question that still needs to be answered with this thread?
by triceratop
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 4404

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

It doesn't sound like 30% is actually a trigger then. OP, I was a math major (and am currently doing a PhD in math) and this thread terrifies me. Sure, I can do measure-theoretic probability and stochal, but I am under no illusions I know nothing about trading. You should not be so illusioned either.
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Sacrifice Tax Efficiency for Portfolio Efficiency?
Replies: 5
Views: 649

Re: Do You Sacrifice Tax Efficiency for Portfolio Efficiency?

I own some VSS in taxable which is about as much of a tradeoff as I am willing to do.
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 4404

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

It took you less than 60 seconds to read those threads and digest the lessons from them? You are a fast reader, and an even faster learner! :twisted: DIdn't take too long to figure out they weren't too positive on margin investing. On the contrary, market timer started off very positive on margin i...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 4404

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

OK fair enough, but let's say I did some multiple of this with my money planning to get out on the close with a nice few thousand dollars gain, bt couldn't get out of the S&P end of day because it had a crazy inexplicable WTHF is going on drop in the last 15 minutes (even though both the DJIA and N...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred - not much difference?
Replies: 28
Views: 1410

Re: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred - not much difference?

That calculator doesn't take into account re-invested dividends or the annual dividend tax drag on the taxable account. Both would affect the output. I didn't know that, John. Might you be able to point me to a more accurate calculator for this exercise? I've tried all sorts of googling and am just...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred - not much difference?
Replies: 28
Views: 1410

Re: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred - not much difference?

You should know that you could withdraw from your tax-deferred accounts before retirement age without paying penalty. If you know this, then, all his arguments are basically pointless. KlangFool Can you please enlighten me here? How can you withdraw from tax-deferred accounts before retirement with...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Index Funds Benchmark Change - Update
Replies: 7
Views: 664

Re: Vanguard Government Index Funds Benchmark Change - Update

Great news, thanks Doc, even if we were one of only a few who cared! :beer The name change has been visible on the advisors page for quite a few days now, in fact. My google spreadsheet, using GoogleFinance APIs, still displays "Vanguard Intmdte Tm Govt Bd ETF" though. It will be interesting to see ...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting
Replies: 20
Views: 895

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting

Thanks for replies. Appreciate the cautions you give. I've pretty much decided that I want to do this just not sure on mechanics of it. After being in the market for a long time I'm not that concerned about being out for a day or two or three although I understand that a lot of the market gains com...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 29
Views: 2743

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:48 am
Bogleheads:

There is lots I don't know (and don't need to know) about investing. This is one of them.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Taylor,
I wouldn't consider this an investing topic. It's a technology problem, and the technology that some financial companies are using for their backend services.
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting
Replies: 20
Views: 895

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting

Bogleheads, because my income is lower this year and some capital gains I own are large, I've got the idea to tax gain harvest then reinvest those gains right back into their same investment home. I'm looking for assurance that I understand the mechanics of the process. I may be over analyzing this...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 29
Views: 2743

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

My question is if Vanguard can create a new ledger to take care of its needs what is driving the value of Bitcoin. It would seem to me if you need the use of a block chain ledger you would create your own. I don’t understand the demand of Bitcoin other than to say you have it. None of the Vanguard ...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3446

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Also I think Livesoft's point above shouldn't be overlooked: "SCV is not for the buy-and-hold person. One has to rebalance into SCV when it is doing terrible and out of SCV when it has done great. The swings of SCV are much more than the swings of a total market index fund. If one merely watches SC...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2734

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

VTI and ITOT are a wash...IXUS looks a bit better to me from the recent performance numbers.. Recent performance numbers have zero predictive power for your future returns. Which one wins moving forward is a coin toss. A better way to choose is based on whether it will be held in a taxable account ...
by triceratop
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Bond ETFs Attitude Toward Capital Gains Distributions
Replies: 4
Views: 356

Re: Vanguard Bond ETFs Attitude Toward Capital Gains Distributions

By the way, VGIT paid only 0.13% of NAV in capital gains distributions in 2016. Most of that is long-term capital gains. To the extent the fund managers were able to convert what would otherwise be dividend income to capital gains, it seems that this was a move which would improve tax efficiency. Th...
by triceratop
Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For ETFs: Fidelity or Vanguard or others
Replies: 14
Views: 1230

Re: For ETFs: Fidelity or Vanguard or others

It would be best to not pay commissions at all, which is possible even on those exotic products.

I use Merrill Edge and get 30 free stock/ETF trades per month. That is if you have at least $50k in assets. If you have more than $100k assets then you have 100 free trades per month.
by triceratop
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates
Replies: 58
Views: 6652

Re: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates

It's not like it's a great achievement. Institutional index also expects to pay out 0.62% of NAV as capital gains distributions. What about VTSAX ? It's easy to imagine the games you can play with selling REITs one day and buying the next (or swapping REITs around distribution days to keep net expo...
by triceratop
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates
Replies: 58
Views: 6652

Re: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates

You have the explanation for institutional vs Admiral precisely backwards. Funds can use expenses to offset non-qualified dividends. Therefore funds with higher ERs should be expected to have higher percentages of reported qualified dividend income. How do you explain this year's data ? Could it be...
by triceratop
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates
Replies: 58
Views: 6652

Re: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates

Probably not "the" reason. It more likely has to do with REITs. But they pay dividends every year and for 2016 QDI ratio was 100%, IIRC No that was 2015. OK, same consideration applies to 2015 then. There were REITs in VTSAX in 2015 too. The explanation that a QDI share over 95% can be reported as ...
by triceratop
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates
Replies: 58
Views: 6652

Re: Vanguard year end distributions - updated estimates

Why do the institutional total stock market funds have 100% QDI whereas the rest (admiral, investor, etc.) have 94%? Don't they follow the same index? They follow the same index, but they are not share classes of the same fund; each fund computes its own QDI. Dividends can become non-qualified if t...
by triceratop
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any experience with Redneck Money Market? (1.5%)
Replies: 7
Views: 595

Re: Any experience with Redneck Money Market? (1.5%)

Judgin' Faynanshul institutions based on the name and not the FDIC protection (not on the MM but the 2% savings account); seems like a Bee-Hay-vorial err.
by triceratop
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Year end review with less nerdy spouse
Replies: 62
Views: 5745

Re: Year end review with less nerdy spouse

cheesepep wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:46 pm
PPT slides in a family? Uh, no!
Smart thinking. Correct, I would advise using LaTeX/Beamer instead.
by triceratop
Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1313

Re: No transaction fee for Vanguard ETFs?

A number of Bogleheads made money on the August 2015 crash too. But mutual fund diehards continue to say volatility is only a problem for ETF investors, as if there is no risk in the snapshot price they receive. It's an amusing problem; I admit behavorially the constantly-changing prices in the mark...