Search found 1428 matches

by telemark
Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is all that "rebalancing band trigger" stuff really any better than this?
Replies: 19
Views: 1013

Re: Is all that "rebalancing band trigger" stuff really any better than this?

There's no method that will always be superior. For any method I can construct a sequence of returns that will make it underperform. Some methods probably do slightly better over a large enough sample size, but the effect is subtle. With knowledge of the future one could always rebalance at just the...
by telemark
Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 56
Views: 5988

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

uint16_t For interest calculations where people care about the answer, you really need decimal arithmetic. In C that means using a library.* mpdecimal is a good choice: Cowlishaw knows what he's doing. This is one reason why dinosaurs languages like RPG and COBOL continue to see use. But the main p...
by telemark
Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 56
Views: 5988

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

nisiprius wrote:If you are a software engineer and you work professionally with financial systems, then I am willing to stand corrected and you can educate me.

As it happens, I am a programmer who works with professionally with financial systems, and I think you have it exactly right.
by telemark
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody, and I mean nobody can predict interest rates
Replies: 12
Views: 1184

Re: Nobody, and I mean nobody can predict interest rates

Interest rates may go negative, and I guess that's just the sort of thing that happens in "the current rising-rate environment."

Remember, when someone says "this is not a prediction, it's a mathematical certainty"... it's still a prediction.
by telemark
Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is up with Tech Industry?
Replies: 4
Views: 977

Re: What is up with Tech Industry?

It seems like darn near everything these days get classified as part of the tech industry. That was my reaction too, and it still seems odd. But there's some interesting work coming out of FaceBook these days, including Flux and React. http://fluxxor.com/what-is-flux.html https://en.wikipedia.org/w...
by telemark
Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC proposed regulations can affect index funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1185

Re: "Mutual Funds Are Risky"

Cars will always be dangerous, so why not get rid of air bags and seat belts and antilock brakes and all that annoying stuff and just tell customers to be careful?
by telemark
Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7172

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

tadamsmar wrote:
Bustoff wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:Being a Boglehead, I bought the cheapest LED light bulbs ... I now look like the walking dead.

I gotta have some of those...where did you get them?


Lowes. They were 40 watt, less than $3 for a 2-pack if I recall correctly.

And now we know why they were on sale :)
by telemark
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to stop MS loading Windows 10?
Replies: 32
Views: 2510

Re: How to stop MS loading Windows 10?

Any experienced people who can explain how I can block MS from loading Windows 10 on to my Windows 7 desk top machine? My understanding is that they are now forcing it on people.<br abp="594"><br abp="595">Is GWX Control Panel the best answer?<br abp="596"><br abp=&quo...
by telemark
Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't bond funds go down?
Replies: 27
Views: 3446

Re: Why didn't bond funds go down?

Everything else being equal, bonds will go down when interest rates go up, but everything else is never equal. For one thing, stocks are down and some of that is probably people moving into bonds.
by telemark
Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating expense ratio with multiple funds
Replies: 20
Views: 959

Re: Calculating expense ratio with multiple funds

You can also let Morningstar calculate it for you. Go to http://www.morningstar.com/tools.html and near the bottom is Instant X-Ray. You don't need to enter the actual amounts in your portfolio. I usually enter 1000 for 10 percent, 3000 for 30 percent, etc.
by telemark
Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Printer suggestions?
Replies: 24
Views: 1621

Re: Printer suggestions?

What the original poster needs, color printing on heavy stock to give to customers, is probably outside the range of inexpensive home printers. If I needed to do this I'd probably visit a local Fedex/Kinko's printing shop and see what they use, maybe having some test documents printed, and then see ...
by telemark
Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Direct is a waste of time
Replies: 44
Views: 3318

Re: Treasury Direct is a waste of time

john94549 wrote:Telemark, I guess the point we "old folks" were making is that it's ever so much easier to "give" than to "receive".

Well, I just did both. Had the money transferred to my bank account just because I was curious how that would work. It did take a few days.
by telemark
Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Direct is a waste of time
Replies: 44
Views: 3318

Re: Treasury Direct is a waste of time

I've used TD twice this month, once to redeem last year's I bond and again to buy one for 2016. No problems either time. It's clunky but it works.
by telemark
Wed Jan 27, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3 Years to Obsolescence - SONY Blu-Ray YouTube App
Replies: 22
Views: 2728

Re: 3 Years to Obsolescence - SONY Blu-Ray YouTube App

I have a third-generation iPod Touch that made a very nice Sonos controller for years, until Sonos upgraded their software and stopped supporting it. Who is to blame? Apple for aggressively changing iOS, or Sonos for following along, or me for expecting it to still work? Buy the cheapest thing that ...
by telemark
Wed Jan 27, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?
Replies: 44
Views: 5656

Re: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?

I do tinker with my portfolio from time to time, as my understanding and the funds available to me change, and I probably enjoy it more than I should. But if anyone is going to tinker with my portfolio I want it to be me. That way I'm not tempted to blame anyone else, and I'm more likely to stick wi...
by telemark
Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??
Replies: 179
Views: 9455

Re: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??

"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." --John Bogle
by telemark
Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 9934

Re: Rebalancing, another study

An investor has spread his allocation across accounts, as it is often recommended for tax efficiency reasons. Real life being what it is, contributions to various accounts are not symmetric or even regular. How would this investor rebalance using only distributions and new contributions? Bump! I've...
by telemark
Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??
Replies: 79
Views: 9384

Re: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??

To paraphrase Will Rogers, buy at the bottom. If it turns out it wasn't the bottom, don't buy.
by telemark
Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6493

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

This is how I think of value averaging, as an attempt to get a constant return while taking the minimum of risk needed for that return. This means moving money into cash when the return is higher than the fixed value chosen. But I don't actually do value averaging, and I don't think there are many i...
by telemark
Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are REITs not providing any benefit in this market?
Replies: 45
Views: 4942

Re: Why are REITs not providing any benefit in this market?

Disclaimer: this may be the stupidest thing I have written on bogleheads.org, at least so far.* I think of this as the Supreme Court of investing. You have the conservative wing, which would be bonds, and the liberal wing, which would be stocks. Often, but not always, they move in opposing direction...
by telemark
Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Online Bank recommendation
Replies: 50
Views: 4371

Re: Online Bank recommendation

Some online banks, Ally in particular, run a credit check before allowing you to open an account. I don't know if this might be an issue for your friend. I'd assume that payroll deposit should work with any account that has a routing and transit number, but I have no actual experience doing this wit...
by telemark
Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reverse dollar cost averaging
Replies: 18
Views: 1748

Re: Reverse dollar cost averaging

If you pick a decision rule and stick with it consistently, it won't matter because the fluctuations will balance out over time. Money going into a mutual fund by dollar cost averaging is the most advantageous way to buy stock. Does it work the same way for money going out? Sadly, dollar cost avera...
by telemark
Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime: doing the math...is it worth it?
Replies: 92
Views: 7940

Re: Amazon Prime: doing the math...is it worth it?

Free Kindle books Free streaming movies, cable, and TV shows Free streaming music Free expedited shipping Free cloud storage for pictures No sales tax I can't afford not to use Amazon Prime :oops: This is why I subscribe to Netflix --free streaming movies and TV shows--and Rhapsody--free streaming ...
by telemark
Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing while prices are quickly changing
Replies: 5
Views: 876

Re: Rebalancing while prices are quickly changing

Have you calculated how your allocation would change if prices were about 2% different than you expected? Your asset allocation doesn't need to be more precise than about 2% to 5% anyways. That is, this is not horseshoes nor hand grenades. I would say the exact opposite. Close counts in horseshoes,...
by telemark
Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 336

Re: New 401k

The BlackRock fund is a perfectly acceptable choice, particularly if you are new to investing or have little interest in learning more. If you want to educate yourself, it's still a good place to leave the money until you feel ready to make your own decisions.
by telemark
Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming vs. DVD vs. Netflix vs. Amazon
Replies: 13
Views: 788

Re: Streaming vs. DVD vs. Netflix vs. Amazon

It depends on the movie. Some are not available for streaming anywhere, for example http://www.amazon.com/The-Tango-Lesson-Sally-Potter/dp/B005KR6NS6 . Some are available for streaming, but you have to hunt around on Vudu, Amazon, or YouTube to find them. Netflix is more like an all-you-can-eat buff...
by telemark
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A warning on RBDs [Really Bad Days]
Replies: 48
Views: 8208

Re: A warning on RBDs

I don't have the data to prove this statement, but have read it many times in my life. The market seldom hits the bottom on a Friday, so expect a drop again on the Monday following a Friday major drop. Will that happen again this Monday? That's too bad for me. My 401K contributions hit more often o...
by telemark
Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone treat each of their accounts separately?
Replies: 24
Views: 2190

Re: Does anyone treat each of their accounts separately?

I treat my accounts separately. That's how I initially set them up, and while I periodically go through the exercise of calculating how much I would save by managing them as a single account, the answer is always "not very much" and it's simpler just to leave things the way they are. As a...
by telemark
Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Emergency Fund": MM, TIPS fund, CDs/bank acct, or IBonds
Replies: 11
Views: 455

Re: "Emergency Fund": MM, TIPS fund, CDs/bank acct, or IBonds

I would not keep any money in MM when a checking account yields almost as much and has FDIC insurance. And TIPS are too volatile for an emergency fund, in my opinion. Mine is divided between an online savings account at American Express and I bonds.
by telemark
Thu Jan 14, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years
Replies: 9
Views: 1718

Re: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years

I take it as an existence proof: it's possible, although not assured, for bonds to outperform stocks over what I consider a long period. Which seems like a good reason to own both, even in the current (cough cough) rising-rate environment.
by telemark
Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warm vacation in January.
Replies: 20
Views: 2274

Re: Warm vacation in January.

It's always warm in Belize, and it has Mayan temples and a barrier reef.
by telemark
Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving more over factor tilting, REITs, etc.
Replies: 9
Views: 468

Re: Saving more over factor tilting, REITs, etc.

An excellent point. We spend a lot of time arguing over things that matter very little, in particular whether or not to tilt and how often to rebalance. The things that matter are keeping expenses low, your savings rate, and your overall asset allocation. What is that phrase? The narcissism of small...
by telemark
Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1438
Views: 277013

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Following up on Star Wars, I watched Kurosawa's "The Hidden Fortress", currently available as a $0.99 streaming rental from Amazon. This is set in medieval Japan and was made before I was born, so I'm at two cultural removes. The princess is apparently intended to be an extraordinary chara...
by telemark
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 95
Views: 6308

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Great TV shows is really where Netflix shines. Some of my favorite dramas and comedies available on Netflix now that haven't been mentioned (I think): Doctor Who Lost Friday Night Lights Battlestar Galactica (the reboot, not the original) Parks and Recreation 30 Rock Arrested Development Archer X-F...
by telemark
Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random walks and "on sale" stocks - confused
Replies: 97
Views: 4527

Re: Random walks and "on sale" stocks - confused

I don't think the market follows a random walk, although modeling it as one is an interesting exercise that can yield some useful insights. If the market truly were random, why would anyone invest in it? Why not just go to Las Vegas where the shows are better? A random walk that's generalized to be...
by telemark
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random walks and "on sale" stocks - confused
Replies: 97
Views: 4527

Re: Random walks and "on sale" stocks - confused

I don't think the market follows a random walk, although modeling it as one is an interesting exercise that can yield some useful insights. If the market truly were random, why would anyone invest in it? Why not just go to Las Vegas where the shows are better?
by telemark
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Shipping Issues since move from UPS to USPS
Replies: 74
Views: 5274

Re: Amazon Prime Shipping Issues since move from UPS to USPS

My understanding is that a significant source of complaints is from where a shipper marks the package as delivered on time, but the package doesn't show up for a day or two after. We had that happen a lot with ontrac. They don't use ontrac to our house anymore. Go figure. Seems like outright fraud ...
by telemark
Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Shipping Issues since move from UPS to USPS
Replies: 74
Views: 5274

Re: Amazon Prime Shipping Issues since move from UPS to USPS

UPS delivery at my address is so bad that I routinely redirect packages to a local UPS store and pick them up there. The one time I paid for next-day delivery from Amazon, it ended up taking three days due to UPS bungling. Ontrac is even worse. But I've never had any trouble with the Post Office. It...
by telemark
Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expensive 401(k) Plan = Class-Action Lawsuit
Replies: 7
Views: 656

Re: Expensive 401(k) Plan = Class-Action Lawsuit

ResearchMed wrote:
telemark wrote:I wish I had that plan available, it's much better than what my employer offers. Still, using investor class funds seems like an odd choice.


You are referring to my post immediately above yours?

No, the plan named in the lawsuit.
by telemark
Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expensive 401(k) Plan = Class-Action Lawsuit
Replies: 7
Views: 656

Re: Expensive 401(k) Plan = Class-Action Lawsuit

I wish I had that plan available, it's much better than what my employer offers. Still, using investor class funds seems like an odd choice.
by telemark
Wed Jan 06, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets
Replies: 29
Views: 3836

Re: Paul Merriman's 10-Fund "Lazy" Portfolio

Taylor Larimore wrote:Mr. Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold 10-Fund Portfolio currently has the lowest 10-year return of all "Lazy" Portfolios: 10 Lazy Portfolios

Mostly because it has the highest allocation to international stocks.
by telemark
Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chipotle
Replies: 16
Views: 1666

Re: Chipotle

I don't buy individual stocks, but I've been enjoying the shorter lines.
by telemark
Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If all space heaters = 1500w max, then buy the cheapest one?
Replies: 25
Views: 2092

Re: If all space heaters = 1500w max, then buy the cheapest one?

A U.L. listed heater may still be a hazard if it's abused enough, for example dropping a coat over one. This is something to consider if you have pets or small children. Some of the the more expensive models have cutoff switches that detect when they're blocked or knocked over.
by telemark
Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If all space heaters = 1500w max, then buy the cheapest one?
Replies: 25
Views: 2092

Re: If all space heaters = 1500w max, then buy the cheapest one?

They all generate the same amount of heat per watt-hour consumed. Where they differ is in how, and how well, the heat is distributed. The primary methods are convection or radiation, but some convection heaters move air better than others, and some radiant heaters work better than others. I generall...
by telemark
Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: people just love predictions
Replies: 16
Views: 1112

Re: people just love predictions

A 60:40 portfolio is a prediction that at some point I will need money at a time when I don't want to sell stocks. Not every deviation from CAPM is an attempt to beat the market.
by telemark
Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1438
Views: 277013

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Star Wars tFA... since no one warned me; that movie is some derivative nonsense. It's true. They even use the same music. My favorite movie reviewer, Joe Bob Briggs, used to say that the right way to make a sequel is just to make the exact same movie all over again, and that's pretty much what they...
by telemark
Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1438
Views: 277013

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Like most of the rest of the native population, I've now seen "Star Wars" -- a kind of mirror image of the 1977 original, and I can see why it's a hit. Disney tub-thumped it relentlessly, and it's well made, from script to released images. But it's like cheese macaroni: really pleasant or...
by telemark
Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy
Replies: 65
Views: 4298

Re: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy

One of the books in the standard reading list has an analogy that has stuck with me: the market is like a little dog on a very long leash. It runs back and forth, pauses to sniff at fire hydrants, and so forth, but the other end of the leash is held by the owner who is steadily walking along the si...
by telemark
Fri Jan 01, 2016 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?
Replies: 73
Views: 8069

Re: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?

Not adding any new money, but I plan to redeem the bond I bought in January 2015 and buy again at the new fixed rate. It means giving up the last three months of interest from 2015, but under the circumstances that seems acceptable.
by telemark
Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy
Replies: 65
Views: 4298

Re: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy

Why would we expect a stock to have some intrinsic value? Market conditions, economies in which companies operate, the competitive landscape, employees, business plans, etc., etc. all change over time. Um, because except perhaps in the venture capital arena, companies don't exist merely to attract ...

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