Search found 2179 matches

by technovelist
Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Interview in Silicon Valley - Suit?
Replies: 36
Views: 1300

Re: Interview in Silicon Valley - Suit?

I don't think I've ever interviewed in Silicon Valley, but I have worked for (and interviewed for other positions in) a slightly well-known company whose HQ are in Redmond. My first experience with them was when I went to a conference in 1995 and the presenter came out barefoot. :happy That was well...
by technovelist
Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a House as an Investment?
Replies: 25
Views: 1335

Re: Buying a House as an Investment?

I have a good friend who has rental real estate. Whenever I ask him how he is doing with it, he regales me with tales of woe about how much of a pain it is and how much time it takes. He also got audited by the IRS because they didn't believe he was actually in it as a business because he has anothe...
by technovelist
Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate Emergency fund
Replies: 44
Views: 3115

Re: How to calculate Emergency fund

Fairly new poster here (but addicted lurker). Sorry haven't mastered quoting. Be careful about unbridled optimism. Re Delamer's assumption of both members of dual income family not losing their jobs at the same time- it happens. I thought the same. DH and I were in " uncorrelated" fields:...
by technovelist
Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate Emergency fund
Replies: 44
Views: 3115

Re: How to calculate Emergency fund

"Anyone with an emergency fund will never be able to match my level of safety now, even with a 2008 style 50℅ crash." How could you possibly know that? Because if you put money in an "emergency fund" it hasn't doubled. If you invested in equities, it has doubled. (Okay, technica...
by technovelist
Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

I firmly believe, based on facts and not emotion, that the US market will continue to outperform all other asset classes over the long term (i.e. decades). Exactly what facts do you have about future events? Those are pretty hard to come by, in my experience. Who said anything about "future fa...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate Emergency fund
Replies: 44
Views: 3115

Re: How to calculate Emergency fund

delamer wrote:"Anyone with an emergency fund will never be able to match my level of safety now, even with a 2008 style 50℅ crash."

How could you possibly know that?


Because he is Bill Gates? :mrgreen:
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

I firmly believe, based on facts and not emotion, that the US market will continue to outperform all other asset classes over the long term (i.e. decades). Exactly what facts do you have about future events? Those are pretty hard to come by, in my experience. Who said anything about "future fa...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "New" combo product for LTC/Whole life insurance
Replies: 11
Views: 837

Re: "New" combo product for LTC/Whole life insurance

I would stay away from anything that complicated. Now on the other hand, I can definitely see a role for a combination of term life insurance and deferred annuity on a spouse's life that starts paying when the term life expires. That would guarantee the spouse either the life insurance payout or an ...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate Emergency fund
Replies: 44
Views: 3115

Re: How to calculate Emergency fund

~20% of net worth in cash is the typical amount. I've never seen that before. What is your source? 6-12 months of necessary expenses is what I've seen most of the time, with the number going up after a crash like 2008, since 6 months turned out not to be nearly long enough for a lot of people. Sinc...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 42
Views: 3394

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

I'm mitigating this risk by planning for an early retirement that I'll delay until I have enough for a secure retirement. If I see around 7% real returns over the next 25 years, I'll retire in my mid 50s to a very comfortable retirement. If I see 2% real returns over the next 35 years, I'll retire ...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 42
Views: 3394

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, which has been discussed here on several occasions, takes into account the possibility of "unknown unknowns" (a second Donald Rumsfeld quote in the same thread? That may be a record!).
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

You can control the maturity duration . Rising interest rates isn't really a problem. I welcome rising interest rates... I'd take the short-term hit, followed by years of higher yields. Inflation is the problem. But you can semi-control that too with short maturities duration , or inflation-adjuste...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

NMJack wrote:I firmly believe, based on facts and not emotion, that the US market will continue to outperform all other asset classes over the long term (i.e. decades).


Exactly what facts do you have about future events? Those are pretty hard to come by, in my experience.
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 73
Views: 4527

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

No that is not how it works. The Southern guy makes $100K per year and Engineer makes $1.4M. Clearly my math skills do not justify the income. :oops: Now you know what all the people who complain about overpayed gov'ment workers are talking about. :P We understood, just having fun. :) :sharebeer
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 73
Views: 4527

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

Many here forget that the subset of people who read websites like Bogleheads or blogs like Financial Samurai are already likely living on the coasts, making incomes far about national averages, and since they have an innate interest in personal finance are already saving a significant amount of the...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 73
Views: 4527

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

I think that banks due factor networth into what they will loan you not just income. We recently sought a loan based on my husbands credit/income alone because mine is frozen. The loan they offered would clearly not be supported by his income, but the assets in his name would have to spent down to ...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

You can control the maturity duration . Rising interest rates isn't really a problem. I welcome rising interest rates... I'd take the short-term hit, followed by years of higher yields. Inflation is the problem. But you can semi-control that too with short maturities duration , or inflation-adjuste...
by technovelist
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

There isn't much room for bond prices to go up from here because interest rates are already near zero. Let's clear up something, here. Bonds have a lot of room for much higher future total returns , which is what we care about! Yes, that is the relevant issue, so long as: 1. We can wait until matur...
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

No, it is the fact that the stock market in the 20th century was an alternation of decades long secular bull and bear markets. Take a look at the stock market from say 1900 to now and note long periods such as 1902 to 1924 or 1929 to 1954 or 1967 to 1980 or 2001 to 2014. Now, to be fair, those pric...
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

LOL, you "think" the margin of safety is there?? Time will tell if that margin is sufficient? You actually ran a firecalc simulation. You weren't sure if 500 years of expenses was enough? Sorry Homer, don't want to take this thread OT. No, I was not being flippant and I am not stupid. The...
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

To be completely truthful though, I do worry and stay frugal. With assets now at ~500X my current yearly (very frugal) expenses (excluding taxes), I think the margin of safety is there. A 50% decline in stocks would still have me at 250X my yearly expenses which seems to pass every firecalc simulat...
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

Ok, that makes sense, as long as a failed attempt to retire at 50 doesn't mean you can't retire at 65, and assuming you will dial back your risk when you retire... Oh yes. Plan is to hit my retirement number and then just let new investment, dividends and growth buy down the leverage to zero keepin...
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

I lived through the double-digit inflation of the 1970s. I know what inflation feels like. Could you describe in some detail, and compare with the inflation in home prices, rents, and tuition that we see today? LOL. I was there. The sky is falling! Nobody will ever get ahead at anything! You kids d...
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 160
Views: 7772

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

If it is true that public sentiment is always wrong at extremes, then the appearance of numerous threads on the topic of 100% stock allocation (or even more, for the truly dedicated) should be a warning sign.
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 73
Views: 4527

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

obgyn65 wrote:For what it's worth, I bought my main condo about 10 years ago in cash. At that time, it was about 10-120% of my next worth. There is no way I could have retied at age 50 if I had bought a $1MM house.


That is a very big range! :happy
by technovelist
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

If you have a very high income, why not just save a lot of it and avoid such risks? Not sarcastic, just genuinely puzzled why anyone would do that. :confused Because it's the difference between retiring at 50 and retiring at 65. I am sure I can retire at 65 no matter what. I am reasonably confident...
by technovelist
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

...Their only solution to a crash is more paper money. That is the main reason that I think everyone should have some gold. "In a social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation."...Bill Fleckenstein. If 2008-2009 wasn't a crash, it will do until the real thing comes ar...
by technovelist
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

Today I'm 100/250/10 stocks/bonds/commodities with leverage trying to fill that gap to retirement. I am curious how you are achieving this leverage, and what your plan is if interest rates rise? Futures. And my plan is to maintain exposure and buy my way out of leverage with new investment and divi...
by technovelist
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 176
Views: 13294

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

Gifting unequally is a topic of interest/concern to me. We have 2 children. Both are doing well, but one has 3 children, a stay-at-home wife and very high expenses, mostly children related. The other has a wife with a excellent job and no children. We've been helping the son with children out often...
by technovelist
Sun Jul 24, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 73
Views: 4527

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

In my opinion, evaluating the ownership of a house is divided into two parts: 1. The market value of the house regardless of mortgage balance 2. The mortgage balance #1 is your gross exposure to the housing market, whereas #1-#2 is your home equity. The contribution to your net worth is the home equ...
by technovelist
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1620

Re: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?

Thanks all for the answers. At the time of our retirement, company will calculate a "floor" amount and pay the difference if our account balance is lower than the "floor". I calculated my account balance will reach the floor with 4.5% average annual return from now on. (I think ...
by technovelist
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

And looking at the current situation, I believe that this risk is still present because none of the problems that caused the Great Recession have been solved or even lessened. We have another housing bubble and the federal government's deficits stretch out as far as the eye can see with no credible...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Observation :Will the market go a lot higher ? Most probably
Replies: 13
Views: 2460

Re: Observation :Will the market go a lot higher ? Most probably

I'm going to go along with the master, J. P. Morgan, whose answer to the question "What will the market do?" was "It will fluctuate."
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

TheTimeLord wrote:Something everyone should learn from crashes is Leverage Kills.


I learned that in 1980, when I bought silver on margin on the day of the top. :oops:
That lesson has served me well ever since.
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I take money out of Roth IRA to fund future student loans?
Replies: 10
Views: 407

Re: Should I take money out of Roth IRA to fund future student loans?

I'm generally a big opponent of student loans, but $12K isn't enough to worry about at your relatively young age. I would just take the loans and worry about repayment later.

Now if it had been $120K, or you were 60 years old, it might be a different story.
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: some thoughts from Kahneman
Replies: 6
Views: 912

Re: some thoughts from Kahneman

[A]s Murray Rothbard quipped: "'Training' in mathematics is no more necessary to the realization of its uselessness for and inapplicability to the sciences of human action than, for example, 'training' in agricultural techniques is essential to knowing that they are not applicable on board an o...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1620

Re: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?

The answer is that, if indeed they guarantee the results, you should buy the most volatile investment you can get. If it goes down or produces less than a 4.5% return, you get 4.5%. If it goes way up, you get to keep the gain. The greater the volatility, the greater the chance of a big gain. Of cour...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 176
Views: 13294

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

An awkward situation, but once your mother dies it will be up to you if you want to be a trustee. The law can't force you to do it. Are your the executor of her estate? Right, tell her you will refuse to accept and if she leaves your name in the court will appoint a trustee instead. No, I'm not her...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should one upgrade to Windows 10? Free thru July 29?
Replies: 35
Views: 2563

Re: Should one upgrade to Windows 10? Free thru July 29?

You can lock in the free Win 10 upgrade by doing the upgrade now. You can then roll back to your previous version of Windows. My understanding is once your computer has had a valid copy of Win 10 installed, it will be remember your hardware has once had Win 10 and you will be allowed to install Win...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 176
Views: 13294

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

An awkward situation, but once your mother dies it will be up to you if you want to be a trustee. The law can't force you to do it. Are your the executor of her estate? Right, tell her you will refuse to accept and if she leaves your name in the court will appoint a trustee instead. No, I'm not her...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 176
Views: 13294

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

I am in this situation (as a future heir). I have two brothers. My mother has decided to give half of everything to one of my brothers, and 1/4 to each of the other of us. I'm the financially stable one of the three of us, and am also her (unpaid) financial advisor, who has kept her out of trouble ...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 176
Views: 13294

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

I am in this situation (as a future heir). I have two brothers. My mother has decided to give half of everything to one of my brothers, and 1/4 to each of the other of us. I'm the financially stable one of the three of us, and am also her (unpaid) financial advisor, who has kept her out of trouble t...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term life insurance - "overinsured" definition
Replies: 13
Views: 1052

Re: Term life insurance - "overinsured" definition

Thanks for the replies. Assume someone of average health wants to cover $50k of inflation adjusted income (3%) and expects to stop working in 30 years. I calculated what the income level would be at years 0, 10, and 20, and assumed the benefit could be invested to match inflation. 30 year term $900...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8336

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

I have perhaps a unique (or nearly unique) perspective on this, for this forum at least. 2008-2009 had no significant effect on my portfolio, because it held neither stocks nor bonds. At that time I was working at a megacorp that did not get in any trouble, so my job wasn't endangered either. Howeve...
by technovelist
Sat Jul 23, 2016 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell Condo to pay off Student Loans?
Replies: 112
Views: 4664

Re: Sell Condo to pay off Student Loans?

*PMI: I don't know how much PMI actually costsyou. Objectively, if you can finance 95%, the incremental cost of PMI may be more than offset by the additional cash you can use against the student loan and, therefore, by paying off the student loan faster. Personally, I'd never do that. You'd be high...
by technovelist
Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should one upgrade to Windows 10? Free thru July 29?
Replies: 35
Views: 2563

Re: Should one upgrade to Windows 10? Free thru July 29?

LadyGeek wrote:No, I don't recommend the upgrade due to privacy concerns. Windows 7 still has a few years of support left.

To keep Windows 10 from installing, run this: Never10


I have tried it and it seems to work as advertised. Steve Gibson is great!
by technovelist
Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should one upgrade to Windows 10? Free thru July 29?
Replies: 35
Views: 2563

Re: Should one upgrade to Windows 10? Free thru July 29?

I installed Win 10 "next to" my Win 7 installations, that is, on a separate new partition that doesn't have any other operating system on it. Then I changed my default boot selection to go back to Win 7. Now I can switch to Win 10 whenever I want to, but don't have to use it until/unless t...
by technovelist
Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term life insurance - "overinsured" definition
Replies: 13
Views: 1052

Re: Term life insurance - "overinsured" definition

It is conventional wisdom that people nearing retirement don't need much (if any) life insurance. This is wrong, for married couples at least, due to the significant loss in standard of living if one spouse dies early in retirement and one Social Security benefit is lost (to oversimplify somewhat). ...
by technovelist
Fri Jul 22, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan
Replies: 48
Views: 4074

Re: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan

I hope to have $600K in my VIP. I hope to retire in 2 years. My thoughts are influence by all the doom and gloom I must admit. I understand that no body knows where the market is going. I just want to prepare in case they are right and a big correction comes. So to my plan. I do have a pension of $...

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