Search found 7238 matches

by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

What's wrong with insider trading, if you know something that other bidders do not know, then it's a sin not to use it. "Because insider trading undermines investor confidence in the fairness and integrity of the securities markets, the SEC has treated the detection and prosecution of insider tradi...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

That definition refers to a stock exchange , and not a currency exchange. There's no such thing as "insider" information in a currency exchange. More proof: https://i.imgur.com/9DheIo3.png You are misreading the article. The article is merely claiming that insider trading in FX is a not a crime. Th...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

The market is open 24 hours, and anyone can buy/sell as they choose. This is akin to how insider trading can't exist in currency markets. Two Aussies were convicted of insider trading in the currency markets: http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/analysis/australian-insider-trading-duo-gets-jail-tim...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

I just checked and I made about $30 on Bitcoin. I made a Bitcoin transaction and had a bit left in my account, kind of like Euros in the sock drawer after trip to Europe. I converted a bit more than I needed rather than try to figure out the exact fee and exchange rates for the buy and sell transact...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

Calling bitcoin speculation gambling is just pointless name calling. Currency speculation has been around a long time, perhaps longer that stocks. If currency speculation was gambling then the FTC would declare it so and it would be illegal. I don't see that currency speculation has any role in reti...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

People that do understand it are incredibly passionate about it. I''m so passionate about my investments that I have literally bet the farm on them. I am basically all in except for my house. I have a feeling that you don't mean that they are that passionate about bitcoin as an investment. This is ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

It seems like the only thing that makes people call it a speculation is it's not a traditional asset class and that it has high returns (and insane volatility). It is a traditional vehicle for speculation. It's a currency. This has nothing to to with tradition. Bogleheads own lot of non-traditional...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11375

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Interesting I have half a mind to try his approach. Would this approach be appropriate inside an tIRA vs. rIRA? Does it make any difference? I think of a tIRA as just a rIRA with a haircut based on your retirement/consumption tax rate. There might be some details to the extent that the tax rate mig...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

I've come to settle on these definitions: gambling - a game of chance where the expected return is <= 1. investing - a game of chance where the expected return is > 1. Poker is a game of skill, where the professionals are investing their time with good returns, and everyone else is gambling. IMO, c...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

For some, there might not be a distinction between gambling and investing. For me the distinction is that my gambling is done for emotional reasons. I enjoy the entertainment that comes from the high risk, high reward payouts. Investing is buying something of value that is expected to increase in v...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6354

Re: Bitcoin

What do you think about Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies? Investing or gambling? I personally think investing is gambling. The distinction is wrong-headed. The FTC makes the distinction based on whether the activity provides some service to the legal economy. That's why speculation of pork belly future...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 12925

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

financialengines.com, a Monte Carlo analysis available for free to Vanguard clients, includes mean reversion. A few MC simulations do include mean reversion, but this is a relatively new development. Most MC simulations, such as those typically used by financial advisers, do not include this import...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 12925

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

financialengines.com, a Monte Carlo analysis available for free to Vanguard clients, includes mean reversion. A few MC simulations do include mean reversion, but this is a relatively new development. Most MC simulations, such as those typically used by financial advisers, do not include this import...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 12925

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

financialengines.com, a Monte Carlo analysis available for free to Vanguard clients, includes mean reversion.
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 12925

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Researchers I've read - including Professors Jeremy Siegel and Michael Kitces - have pointed out that random walk assumptions in most Monte Carlo simulations are not consistent with bond and market returns. Specifically, they showed that most such simulations do not adjust for mean reversion for eq...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Allocation Strategy for the AGRESSIVE Investor
Replies: 36
Views: 2096

Re: TSP Allocation Strategy for the AGRESSIVE Investor

nvthedoc wrote:
Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:38 pm
I forgot to indicate that he contributes to a vanguard L2040 fund.
It would be quite appropriate for you to use the TSP L2040 Fund.
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Allocation Strategy for the AGRESSIVE Investor
Replies: 36
Views: 2096

Re: TSP Allocation Strategy for the AGRESSIVE Investor

I think it is best to come up with an overall asset allocation that includes both you and your husband's retirment savings. That is what my wife and I have always done. If you are both federal employees with little or no other retirement investments, the the TSP L Funds would be a good choice for bo...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 12925

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

It does not matter if bonds (or any other component) of your nest egg is riskier.

Because the risk of a component don't necessarily add risk to your nest egg. It might subtract risk.

You have to focus on the overall risk.
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to file a gift tax return?
Replies: 26
Views: 1797

Re: Do I need to file a gift tax return?

My problem is when is gift is a gift vs when it is given with reciprocity understanding. A gift given with a reciprocity understanding is not a gift, it is a loan and subject to applicable federal rates (AFR) whether paid or imputed. That's sorta true. If you tell the IRS that there is a reciprocit...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to file a gift tax return?
Replies: 26
Views: 1797

Re: Do I need to file a gift tax return?

If one couple is giving to another couple, that can be treated as 4 gifts. There is a 14K filing exclusion for each gift.

At least, I think that is how it can work.
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to file a gift tax return?
Replies: 26
Views: 1797

Re: Do I need to file a gift tax return?

goingup wrote:No tax expert here, but why would the IRS care? Gifting has to do with lifetime limits of estate inheritance.
They care because the gift tax return is the documentation of how much of the lifetime limit you have used. But you have an exclusion if your gift during a year is small enough.
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Never Needing to Withdraw Capital?
Replies: 8
Views: 1283

Re: Never Needing to Withdraw Capital?

You can do that assuming the dividends and/or interest are enough to keep you alive.

For a given consumption rate, you need to save at least twice as much as the typical Boglehead would need.
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2776

Re: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement

Investible assets count. Cash, rental real estate. A house is where you live, you don't count it. If you sell the house the money doesn't show up magically in your portfolio, it was there all along. That house pays you its rent equivalent each year. That rent equivalent is part of your spending. If...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2776

Re: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement

The big flaw I see in your logic is you aren't computing your portfolio properly. For the 3-4% figure everything counts. Your real estate investments count at their current value, they aren't side money. Your home counts. Social security counts as an an inflation adjusted annuity. A pension counts....
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2776

Re: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement

I wanted to add a clarification too because it's not obvious that it's understood. The 3-4% numbers that are bandied about are worst case numbers. If you use those rates and usually adjusted for inflation then in the worst case you will either never run out of money or it will be only after 30 year...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2776

Re: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement

My thinking is the best idea would be to have a large enough portfolio that you only take what the market gave you the previous year. Up to what you need. You made 12% on your money but only need 4%. Just take the 4%. What you also need is a large cash fund. So in bad market years, use the cash you...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2776

Re: Question on 3-4% drawdown for retirement

The most common advice for investors starting retirement is to draw down approximately 3-4% of your assets to have a great success for not running out of money after 30 yrs. I was looking at my vanguard statement and noticed that I am averaging a little over 2% in dividends annually. My question is...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?
Replies: 17
Views: 1940

Re: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?

Although I don't have data to back this, I think the majority of market is still active tradings. Depends what you mean by "active traders". If you mean stock pickers, no. If you mean arbitrage investors yes. According to JPMorgan the volume they are seeing on the SP500 is: 3/7 passive investors, 1...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.
Replies: 30
Views: 2852

Re: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.

Here's some more information about our current situation.I've been retired for 6 years I retired at 55.I was also a federal worker I finished with 36 years.My CSRS pension comes out to about 2760 per month gross.I have 300 coming out of my TSP per month for a yearly vacation.I have a VA disability ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.
Replies: 30
Views: 2852

Re: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.

Just in case your wife does not know this: The G Fund balance always goes up, never down, just like this indexed annuity they are trying to sell you.
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.
Replies: 30
Views: 2852

Re: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.

When my wife retired from federal employment, the feds provided a 2-day retirement planning seminar. I'd be wary of following advice from this private firm. Note that the feds might not offer an opinion on a private firm, there are some interference of commerce rules that tend to prevent the feds fr...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.
Replies: 30
Views: 2852

Re: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.

Your wife should probably using the TSP website and working with the TSP rather than this private firm calling itself the "Federal Benefits Authority".
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.
Replies: 30
Views: 2852

Re: My wife is getting ready to retire from thr Federal Government.

This review estimates the return at 1-3% m I don't think that is any better than G-Fund projections. And the TSP is very safe. Overall, there are many unanswered questions that require more information. I suggest that you ask an overall portfolio question using these guidelines: https://www.boglehea...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are value stocks safer or more risky?
Replies: 49
Views: 3713

Re: Are value stocks safer or more risky?

I think the question of whether Buffet and Fama use the same definition of value is a bit complicated. Probably most or all of the Buffet's value stocks would pass Fama's value test. But it seems to me that Buffet looks into why the PE ratio is low. Sometimes he even goes in and attempts to improve ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 3671

Re: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?

Note that you can beef up security and activity alerts on your Vanguard accounts. Look under Account Maintenance for Alerts and Security Profile. Activity text messages in particular are not an inconvenience, so I consider them to be a no-brainer if you have a cell phone. There are also email alerts...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can real estate investing (actual properties) be relatively "hands off"?
Replies: 50
Views: 5542

Re: Can real estate investing (actual properties) be relatively "hands off"?

I looked into it when I was selling a farm. Decided to not stay in real estate ownership. The "hands off" or even "brain off" question is important because one of the benefits is to never get out in your lifetime so the heirs get the stepped up basis. But as you age it may get ha...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with 3oz of gold?
Replies: 28
Views: 4425

Re: What to do with 3oz of gold?

I have a few oz of gold similar to these gold bars m would someone really buy that off "Ebay"? (no way) Why not? The seller is APMEX, one of the more reputable dealers of precious metals. That's their Ask price. What is their Bid price? I.e. what would they buy from an individual at? The ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with 3oz of gold?
Replies: 28
Views: 4425

Re: What to do with 3oz of gold?

Bars are perhaps somewhat more subject to tampering where you dill a hole and fill it partially with lead to get the density right. Gold is almost twice as dense as lead. You could counterfeit a pure lead bar by partially filling a hole with gold, but the reverse doesn't work. Opps, tungsten not le...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31366

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Most of the critiques around international seem to center around its relative performance compared to US TM over the last 3 decades or so. Given that future performance is unknowable, this leads me to a thought experiment: If International TM and US TM were to perform nearly identically in the futu...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with 3oz of gold?
Replies: 28
Views: 4425

Re: What to do with 3oz of gold?

I once sold a gold coin. I found a local buyer on Craig's list (if I recall correctly). We met at a bagel shop and he weighed and measured the coin as a density check. We split the APEX bid and ask price so we both profited a bit from a private transaction. You can get some skepticism from a private...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market anomalies versus the equity risk premium
Replies: 23
Views: 1184

Re: Market anomalies versus the equity risk premium

Fama's argument is that the value premium is an equity risk premium that looks like a behavioral anomaly because some of the risk is hiding.
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 8923

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

. I would point out, that the goal of your challenge seems to be to maximize return or even 'risk adjusted' return. I try to maximize growth with my stock allocation, not on the bond side. There is risk involved with holding longer duration bonds that some people may not want to take with their saf...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 8923

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

I issued this Bondphobics Challenge for 2011: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=65069 I issued the same challenge in 2013 and got a lot of push-back: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=109390 People seemed to sour on the idea of a allocation change after the coming bond ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31366

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Buffet's wife may be 100% domestic after he says his "rosebud".

But not his business:

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/16/the-war ... rseas.html

I guess you could say that Buffet trusts US companies to do your international investing for you.
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31366

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

This looks to be the actual source interview that was referenced in the link Taylor posted in the OP: m The full (or more complete) interview extends and amplifies his remarks a good bit. “Every single person I think I have ever talked to tells me I am wrong in this,” Bogle said. “If you believe in ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 3671

Re: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?

1) Make sure your user name, password, and answers to your security questions are unique and strong. 2) Never share your user name, password, or other account-related information with anyone. 3) Never store your user name, password, or answers to security questions in your browser. 4) Clear any tem...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1031 Exchange
Replies: 20
Views: 1169

Re: 1031 Exchange

Buy house for 100k, Own for 10 years, live in for last 8 years (since you said 2 rental) sale for 200k. Capital gains is 100k of which 1/5 was in rental service so you owe taxes on 20k, plus depreciation which would be fairly low since of course the land is separate value. Are you sure you have to ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31366

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

I think this is an interesting article on this topic. One issue that is raised is that the SP500 in not as international as it use to be, international earnings and investments have been declining. That issue was new to me, at least. m The article says "Bogle and Buffett don't cast this advice ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 3671

Re: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?

One issue is that you have some responsibility for the prevention of online fraud. Here is Vanguard's policy: m Reimbursement is only guaranteed if you fulfill you responsibilities. For comparison, here is Schwab's policies: m Note that your responsibilities are less for a personal bank accounts or ...