Search found 6954 matches

by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 04, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it Legal for a Company to buy its own shares ?
Replies: 9
Views: 1135

Re: Is it Legal for a Company to buy its own shares ?

It is legal if they follow SEC rules that are suppose to prevent price manipulation and insider trading:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rul ... o-infinite
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser
Replies: 15
Views: 909

Re: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser

2619.990000001 Or if you limit it to 2 decimals 2620.00 which has a 28.8% chance of winning. There is no limit specified in the rules. But the contest is probably decided based on 2 decimals, so those two guesses yield the same win probability in the context of the OP stipulations. Brings up a ques...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser
Replies: 15
Views: 909

Re: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser

FiveK wrote:Does a tie for first count as a win, or must you beat all three to win?


The earliest entry wins, so avoid ties.
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser
Replies: 15
Views: 909

Re: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser

Who is making the "best projection"? I meant to specify that you to make your pick based on that projection regardless of who made it. But if you want to use a different projection, then be my guest, just specify the projection that you used. What does that even mean? (Which time zone is ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser
Replies: 15
Views: 909

Re: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser

From last year's rules:

*In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.

*Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET, January 10, 2016


viewtopic.php?t=180855
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 02, 2016 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser
Replies: 15
Views: 909

Boglehead Contest Inspired Brain Teaser

Assume it's almost midnight on the last day of the Boglehead Contest, so that it is safe to assume that your's will be the last guess. Assume that the best projection for the year end S&P 500 is 9% above the previous year end value of 2200.00 with an standard deviation of 18%, roughly the histor...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I convert to ROTH or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 1432

Re: Should I convert to ROTH or not?

Sorry, I have to disagree on it converting taxable capital to Roth. It converts taxable dollars to tax dollars which are then gone from your portfolio, taxable or advantaged. Consider the case of Larry and Curly. They have identical holdings: 800 in a Trad IRA and 215 in Taxable with 100 of that be...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need some help with overall finance direction (goals and information included) - late 20s / early 30s couple
Replies: 7
Views: 1044

Re: Need some help with overall finance direction (goals and information included) - late 20s / early 30s couple

I'd used http://www.financialengines.com to get an estimate of the amount of retirement savings I needed when I was younger, along with my own more simplified projections. Rather than saving in taxable, I think you can use a Roth 401K to (in effect) save more. (But it might not make sense to use a R...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I convert to ROTH or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 1432

Re: Should I convert to ROTH or not?

island wrote:Please help me understand.... When you talk about the tax bracket you're in to determine if it makes sense to convert are you using AGI?
Thanks.


I am using (estimating) Taxable Income, not AGI. And the correct tax table for me. And the State taxable income is different.
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I convert to ROTH or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 1432

Re: Should I convert to ROTH or not?

I don't like the idea of paying 25% now instead of 25% later. Actually, there is an advantage in that if you pay the tax out of a taxable account. This, in effect, converts some taxable capital to Roth. But this assume full consumption of the Trad IRA with no changes in the projected tax situation....
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I convert to ROTH or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 1432

Should I convert to ROTH or not?

We converted about 48K of my wife's Trad IRA in 2016 and that will be taxed at 25%. But now we are getting 2nd thoughts and thinking about recharacterizing back. (I am still working in 2016. I will retire at the end of the year and we will be able to covert about 100K at a 15% tax rate over the next...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it hard to reverse a Roth conversion in the same year?
Replies: 6
Views: 452

Is it hard to reverse a Roth conversion in the same year?

I think I may have converted too much this year.

I still have a month to re-characterize this year.

Is it hard to do this? Can I do it online or do I need to send a form?

Thanks in advance for any help.
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help setting up Individual 401K
Replies: 15
Views: 846

Re: Need help setting up Individual 401K

Is it possible to convert from tax-deferred to Roth within a Vanguard Individual 401K?
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help setting up Individual 401K
Replies: 15
Views: 846

Re: Need help setting up Individual 401K

livesoft wrote:Why doesn't she figure this out? :)

Nosing into domestic matters, are you? :)
Name of company: Jane H. Doe
She doesn't need "Sole Proprietor at all.

Thanks!
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help setting up Individual 401K
Replies: 15
Views: 846

Re: Need help setting up Individual 401K

I filled out the forms for practice, to see what I still needed to figure out. They ask for the organization's name on one form: Can I use this for the "organization": Jane H Doe ? But that is her name, should I used this format: Jane H Doe, Sole Proprietor ? Or does it matter? I called th...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help setting up Individual 401K
Replies: 15
Views: 846

Re: Need help setting up Individual 401K

I noticed that the plan will be set up for this year if they get the paperwork in order by the end of the year. So the 10 days don't have to be before the end of the year.
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help setting up Individual 401K
Replies: 15
Views: 846

Need help setting up Individual 401K

I am trying to help set up an Individual 401K for my wife. She started getting income as a consultant a few months back. She is a sole proprietor. I want to set it up before the end of the year. I started looking into it today and realized that it has to be done by mail, has a 24 page application, a...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 19, 2016 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual stocks that are sound w/ indexing
Replies: 84
Views: 5339

Re: Individual stocks that are sound w/ indexing

You argue that there are good companies that you think will last (like Kodak, can't imagine them ever dropping out of the S&P 500!). I don't care, I just care about future returns. I don't have any reason to think those companies are a bargain relative to the broad market and you did not even tr...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 13, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to give a young traveller in France some "walking-around money?"
Replies: 25
Views: 2302

Re: How to give a young traveller in France some "walking-around money?"

Travelex sells prepaid cards. Maybe other firms do too. I have never used one and I have only found them available at the US airport when I was leaving.
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we naive to expect historical returns from indexing?
Replies: 28
Views: 4173

Re: Are we naive to expect historical returns from indexing?

Let us say in a bad scenario, over 20-30 years of indexing we only get about . Pretty bad right? Nobody is getting rich from that, maybe beating inflation, but that's it. 1. "3% annual growth rate with dividends reinvested" is +100% ambiguous. Real or nominal or have you even thought abou...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying an Audi A4
Replies: 73
Views: 4785

Re: Buying an Audi A4

The A4 had some bad model years that are listed as the Worst of the Worst in Consumer Reports. But, if you look into the issues, you will find that it was due to the fact that some models were maintenance sensitive. If you did not change the oil on schedule then bad things happened. And, they could ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett(himself) has never invested in an Index fund, WHY?
Replies: 32
Views: 3970

Re: Warren Buffett(himself) has never invested in an Index fund, WHY?

He has directed his heirs to put his estate in index funds.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current SP500 P/E Ratio
Replies: 25
Views: 2263

Re: Current SP500 P/E Ratio

Been looking at a few sources here and not sure which one is right? multpl.com lists it at 24.5 morningstar.com lists it at 19.6 sp500 website shows both 19.4 and 23.9. How do you know which one is correct? What is the current P/E TTM? How do you know the period of earnings. The price is the curren...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stubbornly Ultra conservative, Non-Boglehead Husband. What to do?
Replies: 50
Views: 6192

Re: Stubbornly Ultra conservative, Non-Boglehead Husband. What to do?

We were both HCE over 10 years ago. What does HCE mean? You seem to be confusing conservative investing with paying too much in taxes. Seems like you or your husband have too limited an understanding of tax-deferred conservative investing options. He can invest conservatively and also make optimal ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received a gift of unwanted land
Replies: 23
Views: 3574

Re: Received a gift of unwanted land

Might want to post the land (with "no trespassing" signs) to cut your liability risk. Check local regs on posting.
by tadamsmar
Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received a gift of unwanted land
Replies: 23
Views: 3574

Re: Received a gift of unwanted land

My wife and I unexpectedly received a warranty deed in the mail. It turns out that her father subdivided a tract of rural land he owns and deeded several acres to each of the kids. We don't really want the land, but it has been in the family for generations so we feel obligated to hold onto it for ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 74
Views: 4186

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

If return is measured in $, then variance is measured in $^2. That's the incompatible units. Variance should be divided by mean. geometric mean is approx arithmetic mean - (0.5 X Variance)/mean (under some assumptions) But it's true you can get away with suppressing the "/mean" if you sca...
by tadamsmar
Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 74
Views: 4186

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

If return is measured in $, then variance is measured in $^2. That's the incompatible units. Variance should be divided by mean. geometric mean is approx arithmetic mean - (0.5 X Variance)/mean (under some assumptions) But it's true you can get away with suppressing the "/mean" if you sca...
by tadamsmar
Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 74
Views: 4186

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

I see what I did wrong. I plugged in sd as 18% instead of .18. When I use 0.18 instead of 18, it is a good approximation.
by tadamsmar
Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 74
Views: 4186

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

Geometric return = Mean return - (0.5 X Variance) Look to me like your formula is wrong. This is a typical approximation that I find: (1 + mean)**2 - variance = (1 + CAGR)**2 Looks like volatility drag knocks about 1.5% off the mean SP500 taking it from mean = 10.5% to CAGR = 9%. These are just app...
by tadamsmar
Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else experiencing number drift
Replies: 51
Views: 6260

Re: Anyone else experiencing number drift

Having said that, I do expect another bubble burst that will unwind the indexing phenomenon, but it won't be as severe as the tech bubble. Paul Not to hijack the thread, but I'd be interested if you could amplify on the above comment. I don't doubt that there's another bubble down the road but don'...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:51 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates
Replies: 8
Views: 1045

Re: Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates

This thread is now in the Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community forum (wiki, which belongs to the Bogleheads' community). Thanks to dodecahedron for flagging this thread in Re: Suggestions for the Wiki . Like Wikipedia,* the wiki should cite a credible source as a reference. While I have confiden...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1876

Re: When in doubt, convert to a Roth

Looks like your MAGI includes capital gains. So, if you have liquidate taxable savings to pay quarterly taxes, then I guess you have to factor in any capital gains on the liquidation. But for the last quarter you can pay the taxes the next year, due January 17. Is that correct? PS: But I have some t...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 446

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

You have to have the account open by the end of the year but I believe can make contributions up to tax filing deadline. Once you are doing your taxes Turbo Tax will autocalc the amount for you as well Mike "Solo 401k contribution deadline rules dictate that plan participant must formally elec...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1876

Re: When in doubt, convert to a Roth

So, if (1) You have taxable savings to cover the taxes (2) You think you will end up withdrawing in the 25% tax bracket from you IRAs regardless. (3) You have Medicare part B and you are married filing jointly Then you should make a tentative Roth conversion up to $170,000 MAGI. Please argue against...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1876

Re: When in doubt, convert to a Roth

IMO, the chief thing to worry about is the large medicare premium jumps that happen at discrete AGI levels. Go $1 over and you pay a higher rate. Wife and I were ignorant victims of it and got hit when we did about $500 too much Roth conversions one year. The catch is the premium jump is based on y...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 446

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

livesoft wrote:So one cannot put 100% of Schedule C profits into the 401(k), but one can put more than Profits minus the full FICA/medicare taxes (subject to the other contribution limits).


Her employer put her wages minus the FICA/medicare taxes in the 401k. Why would it be more if she is self-employed?
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 446

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

I have a solo 401(k) at TDAmeritrade. I contribute the legal maximum to my 401(k) which is less than $24,000 a year for me. One calculates their profit on Schedule C. One calculates the FICA/Medicare on Schedule SE. On the first page of Form 1040 one puts the deductible portion of the FICA/medicare...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 446

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

My Wife just started to some consulting for with a new client. She consulted for a another company for a while, but they set her up as their employee. She is not on the payroll of the new client. My wife is 70 and we want to put all her earnings in a tax-deferred account for 2016. I figure a Vangua...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1876

When in doubt, convert to a Roth

This is the advice of this site that is referenced in the wiki: http://fairmark.com/retirement/roth-accounts/roth-conversions/conversion-preliminaries/ I am probably going follow that advice this year. I should probably have started earlier. If you have taxable savings then you are probably in doubt...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 446

Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

My Wife just started to some consulting for with a new client. She consulted for a another company for a while, but they set her up as their employee. She is not on the payroll of the new client. My wife is 70 and we want to put all her earnings in a tax-deferred account for 2016. I figure a Vanguar...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates
Replies: 8
Views: 1045

Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates

Here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Checklist_of_important_retirement_dates For the date of FRA, I think it should mention that if you started your SS benefits earlier then you can suspend after FRA and delay up till 70. You have a second chance to delay. That can be useful if someone gets an inhe...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: After death, is an HSA still an HSA?
Replies: 22
Views: 4099

Re: After death, is an HSA still an HSA?

"The amount taxable to a beneficiary other than the estate is reduced by any qualified medical expenses for the decedent that are paid by the beneficiary within 1 year after the date of death." https://www.irs.gov/publications/p969/ar02.html#en_US_2015_publink1000204096 Looks like your HSA...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 44
Views: 5473

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

Some people believe that rates will continue to fall ... Can't fall too much lower. 30 yr. treasuries are around 2%. I is that really true? I think the log scale is important here, not the arithmetic scale. If rates halve, the price on current bonds double (all other things being equal). Rates can ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 116143

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Rick's December 2014 thesis was that the drop in commodity prices would act like a tax cut and stimulate the lagging international economies (relative to the US economy which had already been stimulated) and thereby stimulate international equity market prices. But in the short term, he predicted th...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?
Replies: 88
Views: 5514

Re: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?

The only ones I know of got burned in 2008 and/or 2000.

I guess there are some that appear successful during the long bull run since 2009. Index holders look good for that period also. But all the ones I know directly failed earlier.
by tadamsmar
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?
Replies: 88
Views: 5514

Re: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?

...or other short-term traders looking to get in and out for quick profits? Is it that all of them individually will eventually return to the median, or lower? Or that it's simply a zero-sum game for them in total, and that some can indeed be long-term winners? I have no interest in short-term trad...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 116143

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I just thought of something! Is this the international event Rick has been waiting for??? Yeah, right, Rick predicted Brexit back in December of 2014. The psychology of fortune telling is interesting. You put on a funny hat, stare into a crystal ball, and make some vague predictions. The only predi...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEA - Will the last decade be lost?
Replies: 14
Views: 2295

Re: VEA - Will the last decade be lost?

The point in diversification is (in part) provide to reduction in risk due to the under-performance particular individual assets. That's the plan, did the plan work? Makes no sense to then turn around and get over-focused on the under-performance one particular asset that is part of your diversified...

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