Search found 7126 matches

by tadamsmar
Thu May 18, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4666

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Just ran 2 hypothetical portfolios through Portfolio Visualizer out of curiosity, with returns generated from 1990-2017 (27 years) CAGR: 1: Total US: 9.48% 2: Total Global ex-US: 3.82% Where's the benefit in Total US given that you can dwarf it by running the numbers for a small value stock fund us...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 14, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 5204

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

While I like small-cap value (and overweight it myself), this chart overestimates the advantage of small-cap value, because it has only half of the Internet bubble. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks in 1997-1999, then underperformed when the market fell in 2000-2002. (Still, Vanguard Small-Ca...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 14, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 5204

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

The plot in the OP link (actually the no pay link in the 2nd post on the thread) shows Value doubling the market since 1993 when Fama and French made their case (or since 2000 also, since it lost ground during the dot com boom). But, what real investment did that? Not the Vanguard Value Index Fund (...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 11, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What home improvements are worth it
Replies: 37
Views: 5306

Re: What home improvements are worth it

Maintenance and weatherproofing might be worth it, depending on the condition of your house. Exterior painting, caulking. cracked window sills, sealing the surface of an enclosed door landing, gutter problems. Stuff that lets in water or moisture in so termites can make progress. Stuff that let's th...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 11, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who really needs an umbrella insurance?
Replies: 38
Views: 4858

Re: Who really needs an umbrella insurance?

Never thought about umbrella until assets were enough to be concerned. We were late 40s, mid-50s before it seemed necessary. Unless you feel like you're in a profession that puts a target on your back, I wouldn't spend the extra $200 a year until you have some assets to protect. Both you and the OP...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 07, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

rkhusky, I think you would like this paper "WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1003.2688.pdf I think the best way to skim this long paper is to search for the uncertainty checklist Table 3 on page 51. Then work on understanding Table 3. There are ...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 04, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Paris for 8 days - what to do?
Replies: 47
Views: 2932

Re: Visiting Paris for 8 days - what to do?

Have your kids learn to say "J'ai six (pronounced seas) ans" and "J'ai dix (pronounced dees) ans". Then they can get into all the museums free. For the adults, consider getting a Passe de Museé: http://en.parismuseumpass.com/ . Gets you into (almost) everything. The Paris Museum...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 04, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

Mercer and Vanguard were both moving away from domestic bond risk at about the same time. That seemed to be the "elephant in the room" of timing moves in that time frame. I wonder if other life cycle funds did the same. Do you mean towards international bonds? If so, the icrtdf.pdf paper ...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 04, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

Mercer and Vanguard were both moving away from domestic bond risk at about the same time. That seemed to be the "elephant in the room" of timing moves in that time frame. I wonder if other life cycle funds did the same.
by tadamsmar
Thu May 04, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

I prefer passive investing, rather than active management. All Lifecycle/Target funds are "active" in the same sense. No they're not. Vanguard has a fixed US/Int'l ratio for both stocks and bonds, apart from the couple of discrete changes they've made over the last dozen years. They only ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 03, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

I'd rather they keep doing what they are already doing. Otherwise, Mercer would have to pay somebody to make all these judgments and and write them up and that would cost money. It's a waste of my money. They have the allocate the money down to the penny, like down to maybe 8 digits, anyway. There ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 03, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

If their calculation came out to an allocation of 34 24 14 14 14 for 2020 and an allocation of 36 26 12 12 14 for 2050, what I would want them to say is "Here is what we came up with, but, because our estimates have so much uncertainty, we are going to arbitrarily choose 30 25 15 15 15 for 202...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 03, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

You just need mean variance and co-variance estimates for the G Fund to calculate an efficient frontier, "efficient pricing" is not a requirement. In addition to the TSP, http://www.financialengines.com can calculate asset allocations on the efficient frontier that include the G Fund. Tha...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 03, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

However, timing may work when the assets involved are not traded in the market; this applies to the G fund. Very good point. There is no assumption of "efficient pricing" applicable to the G Fund. Does that mean that one cannot perform an efficient frontier analysis that includes the G Fu...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

It probably would not make a heck of a lot of difference if they just set it to 8%. Right, whether it actually MATTERS is a whole different thing. But if their model spits out those numbers, why not use them? There is no additional cost to just using the actual model numbers. When people have a dif...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you exchange a 2001 4Runner for a 2007 Santa Fe?
Replies: 33
Views: 1854

Re: Would you exchange a 2001 4Runner for a 2006 Santa Fe?

Thank you everyone. In checking whether the Hyundai has ESC, it turns out that my dad's car must be an 07, because it has a third row, which was apparently unavailable before. That would make it the first year of the (2007-2012 generation) redesign, with ESC standard. safecar.gov indicates ESC was ...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

Sorry, but that still doesn't convince me that the TSP managers can predict the future with such accuracy that they need to include a 6% variation in the C/I ratio over 30 years, rather than maintaining a constant ratio. The same goes for their non-constant C/S ratio. It probably would not make a h...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

Is this minor variation really the result of an efficient frontier calculation? Sure, why not? The G Fund is your risk-free asset. The F Fund is a risky asset. The C, S, and I Funds are your other risky assets. Interestingly, the ratio of F to C/S/I varies a little over time. That does indeed seem ...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you exchange a 2001 4Runner for a 2007 Santa Fe?
Replies: 33
Views: 1854

Re: Would you exchange a 2001 4Runner for a 2006 Santa Fe?

Apparently the 2001 4Runner has electronic stability control (ESC) and the 2006 Santa Fee does not. 4Runner "2001 models were equipped with Vehicle Stability Control standard" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_4Runner The Santa Fe is not listed here: https://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle-Sho...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

It's interesting that TSP appears to use a fixed amount of F Fund and then convert stocks to the G Fund over time. Is that the efficient frontier or just an easier way of doing the glide path? They also have a very gradual glide path of increasing the C/S and C/I ratios over time. F is not fixed. S...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

"The five L Funds were designed for the TSP by Mercer Investment Consulting, Inc. The asset allocations are based on Mercer assumptions regarding future investment returns, inflation, economic growth, and interest rates. The TSP will review these assumptions at least annually and determine whet...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

It's interesting that TSP appears to use a fixed amount of F Fund and then convert stocks to the G Fund over time. Is that the efficient frontier or just an easier way of doing the glide path? They also have a very gradual glide path of increasing the C/S and C/I ratios over time. F is not fixed. S...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 01, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?
Replies: 16
Views: 2184

Re: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?

Additionally, my wife called the lawyer(s) in AZ who prepared her parents' revocable living trust and she was informed that any legal action stemming from her involvement as a co-trustee (presumably if there are any legal action against the rental property) can only go after the assets within the t...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

And, as it has been noted, the TSP is very conservative compared to other fund families, what with recommending a 20/80 portfolio at and through retirement. Their extensive use of the G Fund fits that narrative. And I have no issue with the G Fund - it is a great fund that I would use for the safes...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

And, as it has been noted, the TSP is very conservative compared to other fund families, what with recommending a 20/80 portfolio at and through retirement. Their extensive use of the G Fund fits that narrative. And I have no issue with the G Fund - it is a great fund that I would use for the safes...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

The F Fund has consistently outperformed the G Fund over multi-year periods. But it fluctuates significantly more than the G Fund, although much less so than stock funds. One has to decide how much return one is willing to give up in order to have the stability of the G Fund returns, which is a per...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

To NiceUnparticularMan and anyone else planning to stay with the TSP after retirement: Make sure your beneficiary knows to get the money out of the TSP after you pass on, because the rules say that the beneficiary cannot leave an inherited IRA after they pass on. Their beneficiary will have to take...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 7409

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

I'm just looking for comments on this gentleman's take on TSP Lifecycle/G Funds. http://www.tspallocation.com/april-2017-tsp-allocation-and-business-cycle-analysis/ I am not sure he is saying the G Fund is too conservative. Maybe it's a clumsy way of saying that a federal employee with SS and a fat...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 220
Views: 10587

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

Everyone can always come up with horrible 'what-if" catastrophes for automated driverless cars. And some of them will actually occur, and we will be powerless to stop it. But what will be the correct response when you tally the figures and see quite clearly that driverless cars cause a tremend...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is AA steady state, or unsteady state?
Replies: 14
Views: 1044

Re: Is AA steady state, or unsteady state?

I think in terms of an AA schedule based on age. The typical approach is that you allocate more to bonds as you get older. For instance, the "age in bonds" rule.

Lifecycle funds use an AA schedule.
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 220
Views: 10587

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

the people who own cars with those features usually deactivate them (because they feel they don't need them, or because those lane-departure beeps are annoying, I guess). The beeps are annoying. Some lane-departure warning vibrate the seat or steering wheel. I rented a Ford van that vibrated the se...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 220
Views: 10587

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

A related interesting point which I did not know was that many "semi-autonomous" features (e.g. forward-collision warning, lane-departure tech) have actually been around for 10-20 years, but their market penetration is surprisingly low, and the people who own cars with those features usua...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 220
Views: 10587

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

NVIDA claims it will have a self-driving car computer in 2018: "Xavier can process up to 30 trillion deep learning operations a second while drawing just 30 watts of power. That power is needed to achieve what the automotive industry refers to as “Level 4 autonomy,” where a car can drive on its...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 582
Views: 134737

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

I've been investing for years, closely following the storied career of Warren Buffett and naturally studying the works of Benjamin Graham, Philip Fisher, and others very closely. I'm sure Graham is well known to frequenters of this forum. It is a shame that during Graham's prime writing years of 19...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K
Replies: 31
Views: 2444

Re: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K

Are there any scenarios where putting the Roth in the investment with a lower return would be a good idea? A couple of people have reported over the years that they don't want their Roth space to shrivel during times of market upheavel. I think one puts both stocks and bonds in Roth and one filled ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K
Replies: 31
Views: 2444

Re: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K

If there were no RMD and one unchanging tax rate, then it would be a wash. If the tax rate was 25% then you could think of your 401k as 75% Roth and 25% Uncle Sam's. Differential aggressiveness would only matter to Uncle Sam. But there are RMDs and other considerations. My question is: Are there any...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?
Replies: 16
Views: 2184

Re: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?

We once co-signed on a loan for a home for my daughter and her husband, to help lower the interest rate. Shortly after that, we got a cancellation notice from our umbrella insurance company, they had somehow detected that I was owner of an additional home. But it was not an emergency, the cancellat...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?
Replies: 16
Views: 2184

Re: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?

We once co-signed on a loan for a home for my daughter and her husband, to help lower the interest rate. Shortly after that, we got a cancellation notice from our umbrella insurance company, they had somehow detected that I was owner of an additional home. But it was not an emergency, the cancellati...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Jack's Bracket!
Replies: 6
Views: 1293

Jack's Bracket!

John Bogle participated in the "Brackets for a Cause" charity, contributing $10,000: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brackets-for-a-cause/ He played for the charity A Better Chance in Lower Merion "a college preparatory program that offers a challenging educational opportunity...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate the Target Retirement Savings Number?
Replies: 31
Views: 3035

Re: How to calculate the Target Retirement Savings Number?

Hello, We are trying to figure out our target retirement savings number. We are both (Husband/Wife) 44 years old and wanted to figure out where we need to be in next 20 years to retire comfortably without sacrificing our standard of living. Upon research, we found many different approaches 1. Fidel...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to expand my vocabulary?
Replies: 102
Views: 5574

Re: Best way to expand my vocabulary?

I've tried books, using Vocab apps on my phone, etc. I would like to know more words to sound more intelligent and express myself better. What do you suggest I use to expand my vocabulary? Thank you. Read books and articles by William F. Buckley. He once said "Republican Lindsay is an oxymoron...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 425

Re: Investing and the Bracket Pool

The committee did a very poor job this year of seeding. You almost can't even go off of seeds, only spreads. Middle Tennessee was a two point favorite over Minnesota, despite being the 12th seed against the 5 seed. Richmond and Xavier were both 11 seeds, also favorites in the games. Going off stric...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 425

Re: Investing and the Bracket Pool

There are now people who pour over all this data trying to take advantage of all these inefficiencies. Kind of like the stock market, where it is very difficult to beat the pros. As Metrick pointed out, it's not hard to find inefficiencies in bracket pools. Bracket pools are not dominated by profes...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 425

Re: Investing and the Bracket Pool

One response to the issues raised above is to accept the behavioral evidence for probability matching but to rationalize it theoretically. For instance, it may be conjectured that participants assign negative utility to the boredom associated with making the same response repeatedly, or that there ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 425

Investing and the Bracket Pool

Economists have taken an interest in the bracket pool. Each year, players are presented with the problem of picking 5 or 12 seeds. Many pick at least one 12 seeds because on average one 12 seed wins every year. This general phenomena is called "probability matching". It has been studies ex...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have to share this quote
Replies: 32
Views: 4636

Re: I have to share this quote

Our hero, Jack Bogle, predicts that the returns will be slimmer the next 25 years. Bogle tells us to only invest in US stocks. But lots of international stocks have lower PE10s: http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation He argues that the US firms have international holdings, but they...
by tadamsmar
Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have to share this quote
Replies: 32
Views: 4636

I have to share this quote

This is a quote about gambling, but it perhaps it also applies to staying the course when the PEs are high:

"I hope I break even, I can really use the money." -- averagefool, internet commenter.
by tadamsmar
Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23663

Re: How to Die

Thank you kiddoc. Looks like there is something similar in NC called an MOST, Medical Orders for Scope of Treatment.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23663

Re: How to Die

I wouldn't call advance directives a sham. They don't always work but most of the time they do. It's worth having them and also convincing your family and health care providers now to be ready to execute them when the time comes. I just pointed out that you don't have to convince your family member...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23663

Re: How to Die

My stepson's wife has serious MS and wants to prepare for possible progression. She is unable to find anyone who it willing to carry out her wishes to act as her Health Car Agent. She even ask my wife. She is still competent to sign an Advance Directive (also called a Living Will). She is not dumb, ...

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