Search found 6923 matches

by tadamsmar
Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else experiencing number drift
Replies: 51
Views: 5906

Re: Anyone else experiencing number drift

Having said that, I do expect another bubble burst that will unwind the indexing phenomenon, but it won't be as severe as the tech bubble. Paul Not to hijack the thread, but I'd be interested if you could amplify on the above comment. I don't doubt that there's another bubble down the road but don'...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:51 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates
Replies: 8
Views: 930

Re: Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates

This thread is now in the Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community forum (wiki, which belongs to the Bogleheads' community). Thanks to dodecahedron for flagging this thread in Re: Suggestions for the Wiki . Like Wikipedia,* the wiki should cite a credible source as a reference. While I have confiden...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1754

Re: When in doubt, convert to a Roth

Looks like your MAGI includes capital gains. So, if you have liquidate taxable savings to pay quarterly taxes, then I guess you have to factor in any capital gains on the liquidation. But for the last quarter you can pay the taxes the next year, due January 17. Is that correct? PS: But I have some t...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 402

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

You have to have the account open by the end of the year but I believe can make contributions up to tax filing deadline. Once you are doing your taxes Turbo Tax will autocalc the amount for you as well Mike "Solo 401k contribution deadline rules dictate that plan participant must formally elec...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1754

Re: When in doubt, convert to a Roth

So, if (1) You have taxable savings to cover the taxes (2) You think you will end up withdrawing in the 25% tax bracket from you IRAs regardless. (3) You have Medicare part B and you are married filing jointly Then you should make a tentative Roth conversion up to $170,000 MAGI. Please argue against...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1754

Re: When in doubt, convert to a Roth

IMO, the chief thing to worry about is the large medicare premium jumps that happen at discrete AGI levels. Go $1 over and you pay a higher rate. Wife and I were ignorant victims of it and got hit when we did about $500 too much Roth conversions one year. The catch is the premium jump is based on y...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 402

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

livesoft wrote:So one cannot put 100% of Schedule C profits into the 401(k), but one can put more than Profits minus the full FICA/medicare taxes (subject to the other contribution limits).


Her employer put her wages minus the FICA/medicare taxes in the 401k. Why would it be more if she is self-employed?
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 402

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

I have a solo 401(k) at TDAmeritrade. I contribute the legal maximum to my 401(k) which is less than $24,000 a year for me. One calculates their profit on Schedule C. One calculates the FICA/Medicare on Schedule SE. On the first page of Form 1040 one puts the deductible portion of the FICA/medicare...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 402

Re: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

My Wife just started to some consulting for with a new client. She consulted for a another company for a while, but they set her up as their employee. She is not on the payroll of the new client. My wife is 70 and we want to put all her earnings in a tax-deferred account for 2016. I figure a Vangua...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When in doubt, convert to a Roth
Replies: 17
Views: 1754

When in doubt, convert to a Roth

This is the advice of this site that is referenced in the wiki: http://fairmark.com/retirement/roth-accounts/roth-conversions/conversion-preliminaries/ I am probably going follow that advice this year. I should probably have started earlier. If you have taxable savings then you are probably in doubt...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral
Replies: 9
Views: 402

Questions about Sole Proprietor and Tax-deferral

My Wife just started to some consulting for with a new client. She consulted for a another company for a while, but they set her up as their employee. She is not on the payroll of the new client. My wife is 70 and we want to put all her earnings in a tax-deferred account for 2016. I figure a Vanguar...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates
Replies: 8
Views: 930

Suggestion for the Wiki Checklist of Important Dates

Here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Checklist_of_important_retirement_dates For the date of FRA, I think it should mention that if you started your SS benefits earlier then you can suspend after FRA and delay up till 70. You have a second chance to delay. That can be useful if someone gets an inhe...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: After death, is an HSA still an HSA?
Replies: 22
Views: 3922

Re: After death, is an HSA still an HSA?

"The amount taxable to a beneficiary other than the estate is reduced by any qualified medical expenses for the decedent that are paid by the beneficiary within 1 year after the date of death." https://www.irs.gov/publications/p969/ar02.html#en_US_2015_publink1000204096 Looks like your HSA...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 44
Views: 5154

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

Some people believe that rates will continue to fall ... Can't fall too much lower. 30 yr. treasuries are around 2%. I is that really true? I think the log scale is important here, not the arithmetic scale. If rates halve, the price on current bonds double (all other things being equal). Rates can ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 114801

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Rick's December 2014 thesis was that the drop in commodity prices would act like a tax cut and stimulate the lagging international economies (relative to the US economy which had already been stimulated) and thereby stimulate international equity market prices. But in the short term, he predicted th...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?
Replies: 88
Views: 5187

Re: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?

The only ones I know of got burned in 2008 and/or 2000.

I guess there are some that appear successful during the long bull run since 2009. Index holders look good for that period also. But all the ones I know directly failed earlier.
by tadamsmar
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?
Replies: 88
Views: 5187

Re: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?

...or other short-term traders looking to get in and out for quick profits? Is it that all of them individually will eventually return to the median, or lower? Or that it's simply a zero-sum game for them in total, and that some can indeed be long-term winners? I have no interest in short-term trad...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 114801

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I just thought of something! Is this the international event Rick has been waiting for??? Yeah, right, Rick predicted Brexit back in December of 2014. The psychology of fortune telling is interesting. You put on a funny hat, stare into a crystal ball, and make some vague predictions. The only predi...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEA - Will the last decade be lost?
Replies: 14
Views: 2245

Re: VEA - Will the last decade be lost?

The point in diversification is (in part) provide to reduction in risk due to the under-performance particular individual assets. That's the plan, did the plan work? Makes no sense to then turn around and get over-focused on the under-performance one particular asset that is part of your diversified...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?
Replies: 145
Views: 11864

Re: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?

furnace wrote:...UK is the 5th largest economy...


6th largest or less. 5th is soooo last Wednesday.
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?
Replies: 145
Views: 11864

Re: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?

Here's a few things for the OP to learn: It was not a bloodbath. It was not post-Brexit. I will take longer than 2 years from today for Brexit to happen. According to Cameron, it will take at least 3 months before the UK even requests Brexit in writing. The vote last Thursday might not even be bindi...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 27, 2016 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is evidence based investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 2267

Re: What is evidence based investing?

In medicine, most of the questions haven't been answered by anything even resembling a double blind placebo controlled trial. A big part of evidence based medicine is weighing the strength of the evidence. You should do the same in finance, especially with retrospective studies. The evidence in fin...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 23, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Bonds in Taxable accounts
Replies: 9
Views: 963

Re: Questions about Bonds in Taxable accounts

I my case, I don't have little or no room in the 15% bracket to do Roth conversions, so I think in terms of the more ample room in the 25% bracket. I plan to start some Roth conversions this year or next, but I am not sure of the limit. The 25% bracket for a married couple filing jointly goes to abo...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 23, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Bonds in Taxable accounts
Replies: 9
Views: 963

Re: Questions about Bonds in Taxable accounts

Just because Total International hasn't shown much love in the last few years doesn't mean it won't going forward. It's PE is significantly more attractive than Total US. OTOH you will find it distributes more income as dividends over the last 12 months, 1.9% vs. 2.8% which with the expectation of ...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 23, 2016 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about Bonds in Taxable accounts
Replies: 9
Views: 963

Questions about Bonds in Taxable accounts

If I put a bond fund (like TBM) in taxable, I guess it generates income in the form or interest payments? The value of a bond fund can go up and down, of course. If it the value goes up while in a taxable account and I sell it at a profit, does that generate income? It that considered a capital gain...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 23, 2016 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most affordable option for a will
Replies: 67
Views: 5074

Re: Most affordable option for a will

In addition to a will, it's a good idea to have these documents: POA, Health care POA, Advanced Directive.

When I went to a lawyer about a will, he also prepared those.
by tadamsmar
Fri May 20, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel: "I think [commodities] should be in every portfolio."
Replies: 35
Views: 3151

Re: Burton Malkiel: "I think [commodities] should be in every portfolio."

I never allocate 5% to anything. When I think about it, it will have no significant impact one way or the other, and you will likely track it and stress about it all out of proportion to its importance. The only reason to do that is if you have some kind of compulsion to act. You can perhaps play a ...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 20, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most affordable option for a will
Replies: 67
Views: 5074

Re: Most affordable option for a will

What's a good but affordable option for a will/estate. I'm in Colorado. Very simple: 1. Have brother get kids (in event of death). 2. Have brother use life insurance/savings to raise kids til 18 and then give leftover to split between them. Seems simple enough that there should just be a form that ...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 20, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel: "I think [commodities] should be in every portfolio."
Replies: 35
Views: 3151

Re: Burton Malkiel: "I think [commodities] should be in every portfolio."

Malkiel thinks commodities should be in every portfolio, but Malkiel does not think commodities should be in every portfolio.

Did I get the jest of it? :wink:
by tadamsmar
Wed May 18, 2016 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lesson learned (about Social Secuirty)
Replies: 17
Views: 3185

Re: Lesson learned (about Social Secuirty)

I overlooked the opportunity to invest some of the proceeds from that farm sale in more SS. There is no option for this. The ONLY way you can "invest" in SS is by you or your spouse having wages that are subject to SS premiums. The higher the annual income (with a current maximum of $118,...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 18, 2016 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert TSP to Roth?
Replies: 5
Views: 484

Re: Convert TSP to Roth?

I would suggest leaving enough in the TSP to cover the amount you will ever want to have in the G fund. The benefit of the G fund is greater than the tax advantage of converting and paying the tax from taxable money. Therefore, it probably isn't worth converting with an all-G TSP account. Convertin...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 18, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert TSP to Roth?
Replies: 5
Views: 484

Re: Convert TSP to Roth?

Why do you want to convert if your tax rate will not change? Is it to benefit heirs? Assume you have $100 in tax deferred and $25 in taxable. Scenario 1, you don't convert and your investments double and you consume it all. You consume $250 - (200*.25 + $25*.15) = $196.25 (that is, you consume all ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 18, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert TSP to Roth?
Replies: 5
Views: 484

Convert TSP to Roth?

I have taxable funds to pay the tax on Roth Conversions. My wife has a TSP and she is already having to take RMDs from all her tax-deferred accounts. So, I am looking at doing Roth conversions on her accounts first and most of the money is in the TSP. My tax bracket would be the same (25%) when I am...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 18, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Wikipedia wrong about SS Widow Benefits
Replies: 6
Views: 835

Re: Is Wikipedia wrong about SS Widow Benefits

I just took out the "not" which negates the statement and (ironically) I left the same "verifying" citation: https://www.ssa.gov/planners/survivors/ifyou5.html This page, like all of ssa.gov, uses terms with unclear definitions so it can "verify" two contradictory propo...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 18, 2016 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

rai wrote:I also don't see the idea of looking at your current state of health and your family history as market timing, but more like stastical analysis.


:idea:

Trading on your personal health status is insider trading, not timing.
by tadamsmar
Tue May 17, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Wikipedia wrong about SS Widow Benefits
Replies: 6
Views: 835

Is Wikipedia wrong about SS Widow Benefits

Is this incorrect?:

If the worker earned delayed retirement credits by waiting to start benefits after their normal retirement age, the surviving spouse will not have those credits applied to their benefit


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Se ... ted_States)#Widow.28er.29_benefits
by tadamsmar
Tue May 17, 2016 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

I'd rather have the extra money to spend in my 60s and 70s than in my 80s and 90s (very unlikely I will live that long, anyway). I think delaying SS is mainly for people who have taxable savings or some source of funds to substitute for the SS checks. Not sure exactly what the term "having the...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 16, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lesson learned (about Social Secuirty)
Replies: 17
Views: 3185

Re: Lesson learned (about Social Secuirty)

Yes, she could have suspended. If she is not yet 70, she could still suspend and collect DRCs (though doing so would turn off your benefit as her spouse, if you happen to be collecting one). She's over 70. But thanks for confirming what I thought was the case about my oversight. On top of that, am ...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 16, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to start Social Security. A different take
Replies: 107
Views: 10447

Re: When to start Social Security. A different take

Oddly enough, I assumed that the SS actuaries set the early vs late payout to be roughly equal, i.e., people can't game the system. When running the numbers based on average life expectancy at birth, as I did, the numbers for early vs late withdrawal come out almost the same, as one would expect. W...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 16, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to start Social Security. A different take
Replies: 107
Views: 10447

Re: When to start Social Security. A different take

I'm assuming a very conservative 5% return on our investments. If you are comparing that to Social Security, then you are assume 5%+ real return, because SS is indexed to wage inflation which is higher than price inflation. There is a huge risk in investing for 5%+ real return and no risk with SS s...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 16, 2016 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lesson learned (about Social Secuirty)
Replies: 17
Views: 3185

Lesson learned (about Social Secuirty)

Assuming I have my facts right, I missed a good opportunity. My wife started SS at age 63. At the time I did not try to talk her out if it, in part because it was her decision, but also I did not have have any taxable savings so I am not sure how I would finance the delay. About the time she turned ...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 16, 2016 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

I always opted for deferred gratification on pensions (2) and Social Security at age 70 (2 more years). If you don't really need the money now, are in good health,have decent longevity genes, and it is not preventing you from some significant upgrade in standard of living then waiting will give you...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 15, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

joebh wrote:If I understand what you are now trying to say, I believe your conclusion that "delaying SS is male unfavorable on an actuarial basis" is incorrect.
Maybe this will help? http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/social ... ts-single/


Yeah that helps a lot, thanks!
by tadamsmar
Sun May 15, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

The wiki seems to imply that a typical male should start it early" It does say "Since females outlive males on average, single males will live fewer years than a unisex person and should take it earlier". The article doesn't exactly specify what "earlier" means in this cont...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 15, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

The wiki seems to imply that a typical male should start it early unless there is some available favorable strategy involving spousal or widow benefits, since delaying is actuarially unfavorable if the only the male's personal benefit is considered: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Social_Security I ...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 15, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

One thing I should point out: The cost is 31% of the benefits you get in your 66th year. The units used are such that 1 unit = the benefit you get in your 66th year if you start SS then. So 0.31 = 31% of one unit. So, if you get $12,000, the estimated long run cost is less that $4000. It's a pretty ...
by tadamsmar
Sat May 14, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

I did an analysis that calculates a loss of 31 cents per dollar taken at age 66 instead of 70. I used the Social Security Life Table for males. Those are deaths per 100,000 newborns, The accumulation is total SS accumulation at death and assumes every person starts SS on their birth day and dies mi...
by tadamsmar
Sat May 14, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

I did an analysis that calculates a loss of 31 cents per dollar taken at age 66 instead of 70. I used the Social Security Life Table for males. Those are deaths per 100,000 newborns, The accumulation is total SS accumulation at death and assumes every person starts SS on their birth day and dies mid...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 13, 2016 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take my SS at 62 or wait?
Replies: 123
Views: 10714

Re: Take my SS at 62 or wait?

You can make the decision month to month. Say your monthly check would be $1500. That $1500 check either goes into your bank account or it goes to buy a really cheap annuity that is inflation-adjusted based on wage inflation which tends to run higher than price inflation. And, you are one of the few...

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