Search found 7394 matches

by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Security Keys
Replies: 51
Views: 3813

Re: Vanguard Security Keys

As I understand it, here is the threat that exists from Vanguard's current system of sending backup codes via SMS: Imagine I am a malicious person and I have somehow obtained the password to your Vanguard account. Maybe you use the same password at a different site (yahoo) and it was compromised. I...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A message from Bitcoin wallet Coinbase
Replies: 1
Views: 841

A message from Bitcoin wallet Coinbase

I just got an email from them. "we wanted to remind customers that access to Coinbase services may become degraded or unavailable during times of significant volatility or volume. This could result in the inability to buy or sell for periods of time. Despite ongoing increases in our support capacity...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?
Replies: 65
Views: 4024

Re: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?

Bogle gave a talk entitled "Law of Gravity: Reversion to the Mean": https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19980129.html He seems to mean an reversion to average performance. Reversion to average performance is not a basis for timing the market. Nobody says "Gee, X outperformed Y in the last deca...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

It's back at it's high. It's recovered from the 10% correction of a few hours ago!
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:43 pm
Isn't it only a bubble if it pops?
It might not be a bubble even if it pops. Malkiel maintains that the internet bubble was rational because it could have been justified by spawning a single Microsoft-like growth firm. The rational argument has to pop, not just the bubble.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I can't tell from the article what that even means. Largest % run up over X period of time? Largest by market cap? Absolute or nominal dollars? I did hear on NPR I think that Bitcoin market cap is equivalent to a top 20 S&P 500 company. That would make it equivalent to companies such as AT&T, Visa,...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

My rational argument is that Bitcoin has value as a medium of exchange to circumvent the law, mainly. The price run-up is not justified on that basis.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

The price dropped +10% and started fluctuating a few hours ago after it hit $16500.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6637

Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

See the November 30 plots here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/bitcoin-dwarfing-some-of-the-largest-market-bubbles-of-all-time.html Given the bitcoin run-up since Nov 30, I'd say it's now bigger than the Mississippi Company bubble by the measure used in that link. Note that the information to quant...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I received a speeding ticket via mail from IA - should I pay it?
Replies: 72
Views: 4877

Re: I received a speeding ticket via mail from IA - should I pay it?

Iowa uses a collections agency and in rare case takes legal action:

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/ ... w-20150925

They were putting it on your credit report, but apparently that practice has been stopped.
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 8360

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

Draw them down for consumption during retirement. Or pass them to your heirs and let them get the stepped up basis. In other words, stay the course! :twisted: Or you could rebalance into another cryptocurrency and treat it as an un-taxed 1031 exchange. But I would research the heck out of that befor...
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19367

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Is there any real value behind bitcoin other than the belief that someone in the future will pay more for a coin? Will scalability challenges eventually reach a tipping point and trigger a doomsday scenario crash leaving bitcoin owners with nothing in the end? Personally I am very surprised by all ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19367

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Whether or not there is value there really depends on whether you think there is value in a currency that is non-inflationary and that is easy to send around the world. I think you are making an unwarranted assumption when you say bitcoin is a currency that is non-inflationary. The fixed amount rul...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 26, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 136
Views: 8975

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Rick Ferri once said "Investing is easy, taxes are hard."

Keep studying till you realized that you will never be able to prove that a randomly selected life cycle fund is not the best strategy.
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?
Replies: 100
Views: 9229

Re: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?

My wife took ss early. I was sort of against it, but it was her business. I had a surprise opportunity to sell a farm later on favorable terms. I regret not knowing that she could suspend ss. We are too young to know if it would have paid off, but I think it was a good strategy for us to invest in ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?
Replies: 100
Views: 9229

Re: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?

My wife took ss early. I was sort of against it, but it was her business. I had a surprise opportunity to sell a farm later on favorable terms. I regret not knowing that she could suspend ss. We are too young to know if it would have paid off, but I think it was a good strategy for us to invest in s...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 670

Re: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?

Maybe a better rule of thumb might be that your F Fund (or equivalent) allocation should be about 6% of your overall allocation. That holds for all the L Funds plus or minus 0.6%: https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundOptions/fundPerformance_L2040.html But, who know if you overweight REITS or some...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 670

Re: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?

Hello! I've been reading the posts on Thrift G fund vs. Fund fund with interest. Many folks seem to feel that the negligible risk of G fund is important. A few try to risk adjust the returns of the G fund and F fund so that a person can accurately risk adjust the asset allocation held in a portfoli...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Voice Verification
Replies: 35
Views: 3641

Re: Vanguard Voice Verification

It's essential: when you're enrolled, you can almost always circumvent any need for a gold medallion signature guarantee. That's worth a LOT. In terms of convience, no doubt. What the security level of it (i.e. how hard would it be for some one to get through) is a little harder to figure out. Righ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree
Replies: 43
Views: 3421

Re: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree

Thanks for all the replies. I know the mantra is "This time is not different." But I guess part of my question is: Could this time be different, especially for a retiree facing sequence of returns risk? Could the next market downturn be sufficiently deep or long enough to depress the equity part of...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Voice Verification
Replies: 35
Views: 3641

Re: Vanguard Voice Verification

Finally got to it. Got a bit of a snag with the "Call me" Web page not working properly with Google Chrome, I switched to Safari, and everything worked well (and I have a strong accent). I like the idea of voice recognition replacing stupid security questions... They don't use a second factor? A se...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k how to reduce or eliminate fees
Replies: 4
Views: 307

Re: 401k how to reduce or eliminate fees

If it were mine I'd probably move it to Vanguard and use low-fee index funds. I'd call Vanguard and get them to help with the move. But you might want to investigate the policies of that 401K. Some will send you a check at your address instead of doing a direct company to company rollover. That's a ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Having problem with Vanguard phone access
Replies: 5
Views: 435

Re: Having problem with Vanguard phone access

Must have been a short-term outage. Things worked today.
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15220

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Have common sense and judgement been totally taken off the table? The 4% rule is just a simplified model for projections. It's not common sense if you try to follow it slavishly. It's common sense that if your plan for 4% of your initial nest egg inflation adjusted, then you will at least be able t...
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Having problem with Vanguard phone access
Replies: 5
Views: 435

Re: Having problem with Vanguard phone access

ncboglehead wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:30 am
Me too! Call center apparently can't transfer calls. What's up?
Thanks for posting.

I thought it could be a problem with my voice verification since this is the first call I have made since I set it up. But the automated systems seems to confirm me and direct my call.
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Having problem with Vanguard phone access
Replies: 5
Views: 435

Having problem with Vanguard phone access

I tried to covert online a Trad IRA that had been previously recharacterized to a Roth a few month ago. But I got a message indicating that I needed to call Vanguard. When I call and get past voice verification, I get an automated question about what I am calling about. I say "IRA conversion" and th...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15220

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Note the portfolio is expected to survive the 20% drop so the fact the odds go to 100% isn't the big issue. What the 4% rule and the like don't do is factor in the changes of odds of having a 20% drop followed by another 20% drop and so on. The valuation argument simplifies to something like after ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15220

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

I still don't get why you guys are stuck up on annual numbers. Given the available data and the unlimited compute power, run the various scenario with monthly or twice weekly or quarterly payout. I do see an issue that the real inflation numbers are only computed annually but we can probably make s...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs vs brokerage reimbursement guarantees
Replies: 5
Views: 518

Re: POAs vs brokerage reimbursement guarantees

My POA document (prepared by a lawyer) grants all the rights that I have, including the right to recover and change my passwords. But brokerage accounts seem to void their reimbursement guarantees if I share my passwords. For example: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/SecurityOnlineFraudPledgeC...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

It use to be easier, but now adding Vanguard full agent authorization requires you, two witnesses that are not the agent, and a notary. Four people together at the notary's desk, including the notary. It's the most elaborate requirement for notarizing a form that I have ever encountered. My bank (We...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

Just want to note that there is no law or regulation that requires Vanguard to reimburse you due to a fraud that was not due to a fault in their systems. Many brokerages don't give a reimbursement pledge, but the big three mutual fund companies do. And, there is no case law that bears directly on th...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs vs brokerage reimbursement guarantees
Replies: 5
Views: 518

Re: POAs vs brokerage reimbursement guarantees

Raladic wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:00 pm
The right to recover your password sounds different to sharing your password to me?
The POA says that I grant all the access rights I have, including changing and recovering passwords.

I should have spell it out more clearly.
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

If you have a password manager you could write a letter to the person with your DPOA and give them the password. Then, this person could use your computer and do anything with any of your accounts that you could do. Obviously, this is against the rules of most institutions such as Vanguard, and Sch...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

If you have a password manager you could write a letter to the person with your DPOA and give them the password. Then, this person could use your computer and do anything with any of your accounts that you could do. Obviously, this is against the rules of most institutions such as Vanguard, and Sch...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

Unfortunately, if you have to act for an incapacitated person, the limited agent authorization does not allow the range of actions that might be required. The full agent authorization requires a notarized signature which is often not possible. The agent authorization of an incapacitated person that...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

You gain access via their own account login. I'm not sure I understand this. Are you saying that if Sam names Joe as authorized agent, then Joe logs in using Sam's username and password? I would expect Joe to access Sam's account through his own login, which would now provide access to Sam's accoun...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

Gee. You can set up POA at Vanguard online in 2 minites. Why not instead of aggravating yourself about it. Would the person named as agent then immediately have full access to my accounts? It's called Agent Authorization. The one you can set up in 2 minutes only allows limited account transactions....
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draft a will with legalzoom or other online legal help
Replies: 65
Views: 4747

Re: Draft a will with legalzoom or other online legal help

My work does not provide legal advice benefit. But I have talked my husband into hiring an attorney after reading all the replies here. Regarding the beneficiary set up of the retirement accounts, I have always set up either my husband or myself as 100% primary beneficiary. Then each of my kids as ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs may not be that powerful
Replies: 94
Views: 5315

Re: POAs may not be that powerful

Banks and brokerages may refuse a POA. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/10/health/finding-out-your-power-of-attorney-is-powerless.html?_r=0 2. In many states (including my state of Virginia), financial institutions (banks and credit unions, for example) may not refuse to honor a PoA because it is to...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POAs vs brokerage reimbursement guarantees
Replies: 5
Views: 518

POAs vs brokerage reimbursement guarantees

My POA document (prepared by a lawyer) grants all the rights that I have, including the right to recover and change my passwords. But brokerage accounts seem to void their reimbursement guarantees if I share my passwords. For example: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/SecurityOnlineFraudPledgeCo...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draft a will with legalzoom or other online legal help
Replies: 65
Views: 4747

Re: Draft a will with legalzoom or other online legal help

You "have investment in Roth IRA, 401K, 529 Plan, etc. accounts worth around $1 million." Do lawyers even have to expertise to advise you on how to handle those? Do they typically do that? It's typically best that those do not go to the estate. The will only covers the estate. I used a lawyer for my...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?
Replies: 27
Views: 2172

Re: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?

When people say their savings are enough that they can live on a 2% or 3% SWR or that they have 25, 30 or 40 times expenses are they talking about at once they start to draw SS and pension or before. It would seem to me the before and after calculations of WR and multiple of expenses will be quite ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beneficiary Designation on Traditional IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 744

Re: Beneficiary Designation on Traditional IRA

I must not be that big a deal to have a minor inherit. Looks like a conservator would be appointed if need be. In principle, just about every minor on Earth could become an heir today. Don't you have secondary beneficiaries designated with "per stripes"? That could lead to a minor inheriting unless ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2407

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

Depends. Adds zero in a random walk market. Adds some in a mean-reverting market. Subtracts some in an up-trending market: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/flgprtp.pdf Look at Table 3. Rebalancing did not make much of a difference, no evidence that it added to the portfolio, The reason to rebalance...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 8011

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

tadamsar, I agree and probably should have modified my comment to say those are things to consider. I've modified mine to only make sure my children know where accounts are and how to access records they might need much like what you describe. At one point it contained details on untaken company pe...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 8011

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

5) Prepared and keep up-to-date a file with details on accounts, insurance, etc (sometimes called a death book, https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1743671#p1743671 ) That death book is appropriately named because it puts to death your reimbursement guarantees for all your mutual funds...