Search found 6853 matches

by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 459
Views: 93937

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I slightly negative on the idea of foreign bonds. I look to fixed income for yield and portfolio stability. From that perspective, there's no advantage to paying more in fees for hedged international bond funds that yield less than US bonds. The slight diversification benefit of owning foreign bond...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 65
Views: 4899

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

Bustoff wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:Being a Boglehead, I bought the cheapest LED light bulbs ... I now look like the walking dead.

I gotta have some of those...where did you get them?


Lowes. They were 40 watt, less than $3 for a 2-pack if I recall correctly.
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 65
Views: 4899

The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

Being a Boglehead, I bought the cheapest LED light bulbs and installed them in our master bath over the mirror over the double sink. I now look like the walking dead. My wife (unaware of the changed bulbs) started putting on more make-up like she was prepping for her viewing at a funeral parlor. I f...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 263
Views: 24543

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

I think automatic emergency braking will be mandated soon. I would not be surprised if NHTSA announces a schedule for that within the next year. NHTSA announced in November that automatic emergency braking, or AEB, will be added to its 5-Star Rating System as a recommended safety technology for mode...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please correct my logic
Replies: 17
Views: 1240

Re: Please correct my logic

Epsilon Delta wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:AUB means the union of sets A and B

The volatility of AUB must be less than or equal to the volatility of A

That's not right. Let A be a $100 bill and B a share of Verizon


Opps!
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 24, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

Quote from Stemiker post, Nuance One. Count Social Security as part of your fixed income allocation. I'm still not sure I agree yet. If this is the case, I could probably just stay with a 60/40 for life and never look back. I consider SS, investments and pensions all as different income streams tha...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 24, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please correct my logic
Replies: 17
Views: 1240

Re: Please correct my logic

AUB means the union of sets A and B The volatility of AUB must be less than or equal to the volatility of A The volatility of AUB must be less than or equal to the volatility of B So SP500 will always win or tie on volatility. "average underperform" means expected value. Both A and B canno...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard tax filing information
Replies: 0
Views: 303

Vanguard tax filing information

Most probably got this link in an email from Vanguard, but I am posting it here because (like me) you might want to refer to it later:

https://investor.vanguard.com/taxes/
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

asset_chaos wrote:I believe that if someone can commit in a meaningful way to maximize diversification, minimize cost and hold forever, they'll probably be a pretty successful long term investor, almost despite the idiosyncrasies of their specific investment details.


And save enough.
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances.

In my opinion, the Bogle pronouncements in the OP (and a good many others, but not all) reflect an excessive obsession with AA and the behavior of the stock market. I think that you need to get your retirement nest egg big enough to cover your projected retirement consumption within a margin of safe...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances.

On the other hand, it could be considered a nuance. The Trinity Study implies that your bond allocation in retirement does not matter much (does not impact your success rate much) as long as it's not too high, like > 75% By that token, at age 70, it does not matter much if you are 70% or 0% bonds.
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances.

If you valued your SS income as a perpetuity $24K of SS income would be worth $1.85M ($24K / 1.31% 30 year tip rate). That would result in many retirees not having any bonds outside of SS... You betcha. It's not a nuance at all. For your first paycheck out of college at 22, you put 22% in bonds, an...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances.

Christine_NM wrote:It is getting crowded on the head of this pin. The nuances don't matter as much as Jack's advice to set a decent course and stay on it.


In other words, ignore Jack.

That's another pillar of wisdom.
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances.

But wait. This is not really a nuance. I could have a big impact on a couple's AA. Also, there is another discontinuity when a spouse dies. One spouse should be taking this into account when figuring the value of this income stream as a bond. Did Jack say to treat the death of one's spouse as a bond...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances.

But wait. If I just did it on income, them there would he a whopping discontinuity when I started SS. I'd have to figure the value of the entitlement in bond-dollars.

Simplicity just got more complicated.

Did Bogle ever explain how it's done?
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances.

Nuance One. Count Social Security as part of your fixed income allocation. I did a quick search and did not find anywhere where he fleshes this proposal out with numbers. So, I will guess how it's done. I guess you would have to take your current bond income and total value, and use that to reverse...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [CNBC interview:] Investing legend Jack Bogle: 'Stay the course'
Replies: 13
Views: 2244

Re: Does Mr. Bogle get tired of saying "Stay the Course"?

Does he ever get tired of saying "I should have changed the course earlier"?: "the only investment change I've made in the past few years is a move of about 6% of combined assets from Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index (VBILX) to Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities (VAIPX). The...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Are the Risks of Investing With One Fund Family?"
Replies: 7
Views: 2326

Re: "What Are the Risks of Investing With One Fund Family?"

The link in the OP discussion of theft that does not seem to make any sense to me: Kinnel: That's right. I don't worry much about theft but I do worry if you have all the inputs in all of your money that's being run being similar. So, let's say, you're at a firm and they are all buying biotech stock...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Are the Risks of Investing With One Fund Family?"
Replies: 7
Views: 2326

Re: "What Are the Risks of Investing With One Fund Family?"

What are the risks of investing with one fund family? Do they really answer the question? This article discusses the risk of identity theft that is more likely to impact one company than several since you have a different set of login credentials and security procedures for different companies: http...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 3622

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

Steve Vernon says you should consider spreading your accounts over 2 or 3 companies. This article has some good suggestions and links to the anti-fraud policies of the 3 big fund companies: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-to-protect-your-retirement-savings-from-identity-theft-and-internet-fraud/ Whi...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 3622

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

Even people that sneer at the notion of a nanny state incorrectly believe that they live in a nanny state. Well they don't. They live in a nanny state with holes. One hole is radon in homes. Another hole is retirement funds. All you have with a retirement fund is a contract. Just a contract, nothing...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 3622

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

You can lose funds if you make a mistake, like this guy: http://www.bankrate.com/financing/retirement/woman-drains-exs-retirement-account/ You don't have an unqualified reimbursement guarantee against your own mistakes relative to monitoring your accounts and keeping your login credentials secure. ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 3622

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

You can lose funds if you make a mistake, like this guy: http://www.bankrate.com/financing/retirement/woman-drains-exs-retirement-account/ You don't have an unqualified reimbursement guarantee against your own mistakes relative to monitoring your accounts and keeping your login credentials secure. ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 3622

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

You can lose funds if you make a mistake, like this guy: http://www.bankrate.com/financing/retirement/woman-drains-exs-retirement-account/ You don't have an unqualified reimbursement guarantee against your own mistakes relative to monitoring your accounts and keeping your login credentials secure. O...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the market being down limit downside risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 3023

Re: Does the market being down limit downside risk?

Question is in the title "Does the market being down limit downside risk?" In other words if I have $100,000 in equities at the top of the market and I accept what I understand to be the BH orthodoxy that my equity investment can drop by 50% or to $50,000 then if the market drops 10% and ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for changing AA to reduce risk exposure for large taxable portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1115

Re: Advice for changing AA to reduce risk exposure for large taxable portfolio?

But how can you call 100% VTIAX in equities "a portfolio that is unreasonable and improperly diversified?". You obviously don't believe that it is a optimal AA going forward. And it is not rational to go to an non-optimal portfolio because of anchoring. So, the act of moving to this AA is...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for changing AA to reduce risk exposure for large taxable portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1115

Re: Advice for changing AA to reduce risk exposure for large taxable portfolio?

Thoughts? Reasonable, right? The plan is not strictly speaking reasonable, not rational, not standard finance, some behavioral finance. The notion of avoiding the mistake of selling at a loss is really just anchoring , pure behavioral finance. It's always best to just determine the appropriate risk...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Big Short
Replies: 137
Views: 13741

Re: The Big Short

In his new book on the 2008 panic, Bernanke pointed out the subprime mortgages amounted to about 8% of all mortgages. If they all went to zero that amounted to a typical day's fluctuation in the global stock market. So in mid-2007 a subprime crisis did not look like a big risk to the global economy....
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Big Short
Replies: 137
Views: 13741

Re: The Big Short

Saw it with DH on Christmas Eve. We bought our tickets ahead of time - it was sold out when we got there. Enjoyed it very much, but also felt really bad for all of the innocent people who lost their jobs, homes and 401ks. ... It's easy to feel even worse when you consider that many, if not most, of...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Floss aversion
Replies: 56
Views: 7272

Re: Floss aversion

Thanks for all the ideas!
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 459
Views: 93937

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I going to take his advice and put 13K in total international, our 2016 Roth contribution. Well, sort of. I was already neutral back when Rick blogged those immortal words about how he now believed that international as at least and good as domestic so he was going to act on his current beliefs late...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 02, 2016 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 459
Views: 93937

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

In his defense, he was right, it's about +6% outperformance in domestics? When I mentioned that earlier, did you see Taylor's comment?: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2707395#p2707395 PS: There is one Chinese billionaire who can quote Carl Sagan when asked how much he lost last ye...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 459
Views: 93937

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Any update on the change in strategy? Only the update on the change in his blogging strategy: he apparently deleted his blog post on the strategy. If you look at his blog, there are plenty of entries before and after that one. That particular one is gone. Have you ever seen anyone post a strategy l...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 459
Views: 93937

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

From his blog post: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investments/my-expected-investment-changes-in-2015/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RickFerri+%28Rick+Ferri+Blog%29 Rick Ferri will be looking to increase his international allocation for the 2nd half of the decade...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it too late to do a 2015 Roth conversion?
Replies: 10
Views: 952

Is it too late to do a 2015 Roth conversion?

I was thinking about doing a conversion of an tax-deferred IRA to Roth. But I was wondering if it would take effect in 2015 if I do it today. I guess that the domestic funds transaction might at least be done today.
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 19, 2015 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

Since you think selling and DCAing back in is silly, I assume you must define it as less optimal than not selling. Selling and DCAing back gives exactly the same results as DCAing a lump sum Not selling gives exactly the same results as investing the lump sum immediately If two plans give exactly t...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

Will have to consider further, but yes, I might disagree with his definition of optimal. Not that it is the wrong definition to use, but that it is not the only possible definition that makes sense... ... and I should add, of course, not that my disagreeing with his definition makes his proof illog...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

Constantinides' 1979 paper was literally the last word on DCA in the peer literature as far as standard finance is concerned, the case was closed. But there have been some behavioral finance papers like this one: http://www.jamesegrantcpapc.com/docs/abehavioralframeworkfordca.pdf Of course, "s...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

I can see why investment advisors don't push lump sum, I think I would do the same if I was in their shoes, but I might sound our my client a bit first to see if he would think I was a idiot if I said nice things about DCA. DCA causes no downside for the advisor, the advisor is not the one experienc...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

Constantinides' 1979 paper was literally the last word on DCA in the peer literature as far as standard finance is concerned, the case was closed. But there have been some behavioral finance papers like this one:

http://www.jamesegrantcpapc.com/docs/ab ... fordca.pdf
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

My argument is that the risk profiles of their entire investment lifetimes are different and that you can't get from one risk profile to the other risk profile simply by changing the AA of the non-DCA'd portfolio. So let me make sure I understand you. If Tweedle Dee has a $500,000 nest egg and Twee...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

[quote="saltycaper" My argument is that the risk profiles of their entire investment lifetimes are different and that you can't get from one risk profile to the other risk profile simply by changing the AA of the non-DCA'd portfolio.[/quote] So let me make sure I understand you. If Tweedle...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

Anyone know a good sculptor who can make a marble bust of Constantinides for the lobby of our tony NYC office?
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

So, to specifics. Would we essentially build a bond/CD ladder that paid out at just the right times to make the DCA transactions required to satisfy our clients? Since we are spending other people's money the risk (to us) is zero meaning we can accept fairly low returns, especially if we scale this...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

bertilak, Leenaar perhaps their is a way to profit from this. We should quit trying to convince them and invest our time in something more profitable. We could form a investment firm that offers DCAer's a better return than DCAing. We borrow the cash that they would have otherwise DCAed in a year (o...
by tadamsmar
Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

The reason I call it sophistry is because the person posing the question has redefined the goal without the consent of the other party, and he does so in a furtive way. He implies that the DCA'er wants to invest at all price points at all times and that they are willing to sell securities simply to...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

I suppose the best policy for a market timer would be to always determine their AA based on market conditions. So, if they get a lump sum then they just put it into their current AA. Getting a lump sum would not be a special case where special market timing is required. Perhaps the Constantinides pa...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

Constantinides' definition of DCA includes the fixed (unchanging) schedule, which I believe he calls non-sequential. It does not merely include a fixed schedule, that is all his definition includes . Constantinides' definition of DCA, the one he uses in his proof, strictly requires a fixed schedule...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

LS vs fixed-date DCA is a false dichotomy, there are other options. Constantinides' proof does not prove that LS is the only logical option. Agreed, but the topic of this thread is LS vs DCA, not DCA vs everything else. I agree that you can beat LS IF: ⋅ You allow changes to a strategy as...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4588

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

LS vs fixed-date DCA is a false dichotomy, there are other options. Constantinides' proof does not prove that LS is the only logical option. Agreed, but the topic of this thread is LS vs DCA, not DCA vs everything else. I agree that you can beat LS IF: ⋅ You allow changes to a strategy as...

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