Search found 7098 matches

by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 141
Views: 4493

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

Everyone can always come up with horrible 'what-if" catastrophes for automated driverless cars. And some of them will actually occur, and we will be powerless to stop it. But what will be the correct response when you tally the figures and see quite clearly that driverless cars cause a tremend...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is AA steady state, or unsteady state?
Replies: 14
Views: 901

Re: Is AA steady state, or unsteady state?

I think in terms of an AA schedule based on age. The typical approach is that you allocate more to bonds as you get older. For instance, the "age in bonds" rule.

Lifecycle funds use an AA schedule.
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 141
Views: 4493

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

the people who own cars with those features usually deactivate them (because they feel they don't need them, or because those lane-departure beeps are annoying, I guess). The beeps are annoying. Some lane-departure warning vibrate the seat or steering wheel. I rented a Ford van that vibrated the se...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 141
Views: 4493

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

A related interesting point which I did not know was that many "semi-autonomous" features (e.g. forward-collision warning, lane-departure tech) have actually been around for 10-20 years, but their market penetration is surprisingly low, and the people who own cars with those features usua...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 141
Views: 4493

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

NVIDA claims it will have a self-driving car computer in 2018: "Xavier can process up to 30 trillion deep learning operations a second while drawing just 30 watts of power. That power is needed to achieve what the automotive industry refers to as “Level 4 autonomy,” where a car can drive on its...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 536
Views: 130196

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

I've been investing for years, closely following the storied career of Warren Buffett and naturally studying the works of Benjamin Graham, Philip Fisher, and others very closely. I'm sure Graham is well known to frequenters of this forum. It is a shame that during Graham's prime writing years of 19...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K
Replies: 31
Views: 2311

Re: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K

Are there any scenarios where putting the Roth in the investment with a lower return would be a good idea? A couple of people have reported over the years that they don't want their Roth space to shrivel during times of market upheavel. I think one puts both stocks and bonds in Roth and one filled ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K
Replies: 31
Views: 2311

Re: Differential aggressiveness for ROTH vs 401K

If there were no RMD and one unchanging tax rate, then it would be a wash. If the tax rate was 25% then you could think of your 401k as 75% Roth and 25% Uncle Sam's. Differential aggressiveness would only matter to Uncle Sam. But there are RMDs and other considerations. My question is: Are there any...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1522

Re: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?

We once co-signed on a loan for a home for my daughter and her husband, to help lower the interest rate. Shortly after that, we got a cancellation notice from our umbrella insurance company, they had somehow detected that I was owner of an additional home. But it was not an emergency, the cancellat...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1522

Re: Are my concerns valid about homeowners insurance?

We once co-signed on a loan for a home for my daughter and her husband, to help lower the interest rate. Shortly after that, we got a cancellation notice from our umbrella insurance company, they had somehow detected that I was owner of an additional home. But it was not an emergency, the cancellati...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Jack's Bracket!
Replies: 6
Views: 1189

Jack's Bracket!

John Bogle participated in the "Brackets for a Cause" charity, contributing $10,000: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brackets-for-a-cause/ He played for the charity A Better Chance in Lower Merion "a college preparatory program that offers a challenging educational opportunity...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate the Target Retirement Savings Number?
Replies: 31
Views: 2870

Re: How to calculate the Target Retirement Savings Number?

Hello, We are trying to figure out our target retirement savings number. We are both (Husband/Wife) 44 years old and wanted to figure out where we need to be in next 20 years to retire comfortably without sacrificing our standard of living. Upon research, we found many different approaches 1. Fidel...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to expand my vocabulary?
Replies: 102
Views: 5174

Re: Best way to expand my vocabulary?

I've tried books, using Vocab apps on my phone, etc. I would like to know more words to sound more intelligent and express myself better. What do you suggest I use to expand my vocabulary? Thank you. Read books and articles by William F. Buckley. He once said "Republican Lindsay is an oxymoron...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 399

Re: Investing and the Bracket Pool

The committee did a very poor job this year of seeding. You almost can't even go off of seeds, only spreads. Middle Tennessee was a two point favorite over Minnesota, despite being the 12th seed against the 5 seed. Richmond and Xavier were both 11 seeds, also favorites in the games. Going off stric...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 399

Re: Investing and the Bracket Pool

There are now people who pour over all this data trying to take advantage of all these inefficiencies. Kind of like the stock market, where it is very difficult to beat the pros. As Metrick pointed out, it's not hard to find inefficiencies in bracket pools. Bracket pools are not dominated by profes...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 399

Re: Investing and the Bracket Pool

One response to the issues raised above is to accept the behavioral evidence for probability matching but to rationalize it theoretically. For instance, it may be conjectured that participants assign negative utility to the boredom associated with making the same response repeatedly, or that there ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and the Bracket Pool
Replies: 5
Views: 399

Investing and the Bracket Pool

Economists have taken an interest in the bracket pool. Each year, players are presented with the problem of picking 5 or 12 seeds. Many pick at least one 12 seeds because on average one 12 seed wins every year. This general phenomena is called "probability matching". It has been studies ex...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have to share this quote
Replies: 32
Views: 4557

Re: I have to share this quote

Our hero, Jack Bogle, predicts that the returns will be slimmer the next 25 years. Bogle tells us to only invest in US stocks. But lots of international stocks have lower PE10s: http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation He argues that the US firms have international holdings, but they...
by tadamsmar
Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have to share this quote
Replies: 32
Views: 4557

I have to share this quote

This is a quote about gambling, but it perhaps it also applies to staying the course when the PEs are high:

"I hope I break even, I can really use the money." -- averagefool, internet commenter.
by tadamsmar
Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

Thank you kiddoc. Looks like there is something similar in NC called an MOST, Medical Orders for Scope of Treatment.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

I wouldn't call advance directives a sham. They don't always work but most of the time they do. It's worth having them and also convincing your family and health care providers now to be ready to execute them when the time comes. I just pointed out that you don't have to convince your family member...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

My stepson's wife has serious MS and wants to prepare for possible progression. She is unable to find anyone who it willing to carry out her wishes to act as her Health Car Agent. She even ask my wife. She is still competent to sign an Advance Directive (also called a Living Will). She is not dumb, ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

My family had a situation like the Shivo case. It was very tough on all involved. My wife's cousin was 75ish and very healthy. Her parents lived to their late 90s. She was single and lived alone. She had a stroke in her sleep but survived and stayed asleep until she was found the next day still in ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

My opinion is that the usefulness of a healthcare power of attorney, living will, advanced directive etc is dramatically overblown in society and particularly by the legal profession. Practically speaking, there are very few situations where anybody actually looks at them and does anything with the...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

What is really helpful is for you to think about what you would want done in various situations and talk about it with those you care about. In the Terri Schiavo case, one of the loved ones who claimed in court that she talked to them about what she wanted done got charged with perjury in another c...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

Possibly a more reasonable approach to a patient with terminal disease who has pneumonia would be to point out that giving that person antibiotics could relieve the respiratory distress caused by the pneumonia but also prolong life. Let the patient (or the personal representative) then make the dec...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to make it easier for spouse upon death
Replies: 91
Views: 11752

Re: How to make it easier for spouse upon death

We keep a list of institutions where we have accounts. No account numbers, no passwords, balances, etc. That way my wife could pick up the phone and call: "Hello, American Express, my Husband is dead" "Hello, Insurance company, my Husband is dead" "Hello, TSP , my Husband i...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?
Replies: 42
Views: 6036

Re: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?

I'm not sure I would have any recourse in this situation. My understanding is that banks usually accept liability for fraudulent transactions. But I don't know that the same applies for brokerages, especially when it might look like I'm just trying to escape losses due to bad trades. Not to mention...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Die
Replies: 167
Views: 23380

Re: How to Die

I have a living will. If your not conscious they have to do everything in their arsenal to keep you alive. The living will allows a member of your family to throw the off switch. If you don't have one, do an internet search and print one out. Dave My advanced directive does not specify a person to ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.
Replies: 24
Views: 4513

Re: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.

This omen would have you selling early in markets making new highs:

Image

I think one would need a buy signal.
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with lump sum? First time poster.
Replies: 10
Views: 1015

Re: What to do with lump sum? First time poster.

What would you do with a lump sum in this market if you were in my position? What I would do is put it in my current asset allocation (AA). If I was not comfortable with that, then I would find an AA that I was comfortable with and invest in that with no plan to go to a riskier higher stock AA at a...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with lump sum? First time poster.
Replies: 10
Views: 1015

Re: What to do with lump sum? First time poster.

Thank you all for your insight. I have just enough basic financial knowledge to be a danger to myself! I agree that I do need some stock exposure, eventually. I am leaning toward using several of the ideas presented as a way to be diverse. All bonds probably won't make much, if any, return. I like ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 28, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 117
Views: 11225

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

It's June '29 and the Shilller PE is 29.

It will crash in 4 months.

Or, maybe it will hold out to October at the latest and fall in the Fall. Stocks are like leaves.
by tadamsmar
Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 117
Views: 11225

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

It's April 1997. The Shiller PE was at current levels then. There is plenty of upside left! You can get out after the crash starts and still make a bundle. :twisted: :evil: :sharebeer (Us Bogleheads will get to annually rebalance out of stocks 2 more times. After that we will be rebalancing out of b...
by tadamsmar
Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security reps keep disputing advice given in this forum
Replies: 26
Views: 4826

Re: Social Security reps keep disputing advice given in this forum

Didn't see anyone reference this relevant thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=191151, which discusses online application. I'll be in the same boat in a year's time. The online method makes me a bit nervous, as I would want to make sure it is filled out correctly with precise wo...
by tadamsmar
Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security reps keep disputing advice given in this forum
Replies: 26
Views: 4826

Re: Social Security reps keep disputing advice given in this forum

I filed a restricted application last year using the instructions here:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=191151

My spousal benefits started in November of 2016.
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?
Replies: 42
Views: 6036

Re: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?

There are some protections from the scenario described by the OP: 1. In order to transfer money from one of bank to another, first one has to link them. Linking involves the old bank depositing small amounts to the new bank account. One has to report to the old bank the exact amounts before the acc...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?
Replies: 42
Views: 6036

Re: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?

Does the bank reimburse you if you are robbed on the street after taking money out of the ATM? No, because it's not the bank's fault. Same here. Your recourse is to pursue the thief through the criminal justice system. It's a pretty dumb criminal who would transfer your money into an account that c...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting review of my IPS (Doctor)
Replies: 23
Views: 1504

Re: Doctor requesting review of my IPS

Objectives: Retire early from clinical medicine, no later than age 55. $1,500,000 between taxable accounts. $1,500,000 between tax-free and tax-advantaged spaces (IRAs, 401k/403b accounts). Not sure there is any need for a 50-50 ratio goal. I think the goal should be tax-efficient fund placement: h...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting review of my IPS (Doctor)
Replies: 23
Views: 1504

Re: Doctor requesting review of my IPS

obafgkm wrote:When I saw this subject, I was expecting a different kind of question. I didn't know doctors needed to see a patient's investment policy statement...
:shock:


Doctor, my IPS made my nest egg obese.
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting review of my IPS (Doctor)
Replies: 23
Views: 1504

Re: Doctor requesting review of my IPS

The only recommendation I would have is to go ahead and set your glidepTh instead of revisiting your AA every 5 years. Ditto on the 5 year thing - I think it will just cause indecision and anxiety. Use an AA schedule. Here are examples of AA schedules: Age in bonds The Burton Malkiel's Life-cycle M...
by tadamsmar
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 11109

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

That's how the 4% SWR came about; it's the largest WR that would never once have run out of money over a 30 year period (using a 60/40 portfolio) throughout the entire U.S. history of stocks going back 140 years. It's true that in a very few instances, the money would have been nearly exhausted at ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cruise suggestions.
Replies: 37
Views: 3404

Re: Cruise suggestions.

In Athens, I think I gave a cabby a $20 bill and it magically became a $10, so don't absent-mindedly hand them a bill, make sure they know you are playing attention. The Hop on hop off buses in Athens were great and inexpensive for seeing the sights, and they were not listed in the guide books we ha...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very basic question about fees
Replies: 10
Views: 937

Re: Very basic question about fees

I'm a beginner at investing, and I had a question about fees associated with funds. I'm comparing the fees between different state 529 plans, some with an expense ratio of around .33%, others around .17%. How do I calculate the different in what I'd actually be paying? Is it as simple as [yearly co...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 5010

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

If we just observed 17 years with a CAGR that would fall within the lowest decile or so of observed returns over that time frame, then maybe we will observe a CAGR over the following 17 years that lies in the top decile of observed returns? Possible no? Near zero probability for 9% real. You do rea...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick's Rules for Lump Sum Investing
Replies: 215
Views: 14234

Re: Rick's Rules for Lump Sum Investing

I've read this entire exhausting thread. One of the most important components of the Boglehead strategy is to Sell High and Buy Low. If I were fully invested right now I would be selling my S&P/VTI and buying TBM or TIBM. But since I am not invested yet, the "right" move is to lump su...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 5010

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

BTW.. The previous 17 years have been pretty grim for US equities (S&P 500 returned about 2.5% real). Can't we all advocate for some positive reversion to the mean? Isn't it about time for a 17 year period of 9%+ real returns? Heck I may be able to retire before age 50 if that happens. The 2.5%...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 5010

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

What you mean by 'real return' is different from what he is referring to. If he is including a 4%+inflation WR (Trinity study) in his calculations, a 2% real return above that would virtually never run out of money. And a 2% risk of failure should not be a problem for someone with a pension plus SS...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 5010

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

Based on a retirement calculator, if we retire at 55, we will run out of money at 93 with a 2% real return. For me, that is not too bad. But the cure with a 3% real return looks really nice, and might be used to convince my wife that we can retire. 2% real might be OK for planning purposes. 1% woul...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 5010

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

Based on a retirement calculator, if we retire at 55, we will run out of money at 93 with a 2% real return. For me, that is not too bad. But the cure with a 3% real return looks really nice, and might be used to convince my wife that we can retire. 2% real might be OK for planning purposes. 1% woul...

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