Search found 1176 matches

by swaption
Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I may be a workaholic?
Replies: 24
Views: 2181

Re: I may be a workaholic?

Working and being productive is an integral part of the human condition, and I don't think there is anything in our ecosystem that dictates that necessarily has to change in your 50's. Age is just a number, and I wouldn't let any of society's broad rules or conventions play any role in how you live ...
by swaption
Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Want International Stocks?
Replies: 96
Views: 7564

Re: Do You Really Need International Stocks?

As long as the future resembles the past, you'll do fine. The main reason I invest a significant portion of my equity overseas is because I think there is a reasonable chance that will not be the case. See Japan for the classic example. Oh, yes! I know about Japan. Yet can you expand upon your view...
by swaption
Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 19528

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start in 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incre...
by swaption
Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 19528

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start in 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incre...
by swaption
Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't Shoot. Questioning 401k
Replies: 28
Views: 3016

Re: Don't Shoot. Questioning 401k

You are avoiding taxes at your highest marginal rate right now. Let's say that's 28%. When you withdraw, you will withdraw starting at an effective rate of 0%. Then 10%, then 15% then 25%, etc. as you withdraw enough to move up through the tax brackets. Unpredictable things can happen to change you...
by swaption
Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surprise financial disaster, severe debt $300K caused by brother-in-law - Please help!
Replies: 212
Views: 38652

Re: Surprise financial disaster, severe debt $300K caused by brother-in-law - Please help!

Unfortunately, I can say I know this family, even though my guess is I probably don't. As one who has funded a couple of Bat Mitzvahs, many summers at sleepaway camp, and all the requisite children's activities, this type of family strikes all too close to home. Lots of friendly folks out there taki...
by swaption
Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 131
Views: 15636

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

With all due respect, it's not going off topic if the original poster constructively replies to a meaning of life comment, which includes a further inquiry. Please don't ask about the potential for a meaningful life if ultimately the answer really is that you don't care. Some of us didn't just gradu...
by swaption
Thu Dec 22, 2016 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 131
Views: 15636

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

Interesting thread. Not sure how I've missed it the last two weeks. It's obviously possible to do this. Lots of people have. The key isn't the investing return, it's the savings rate. However, it seems a waste to spend even ten years of your life (and fourteen counting your degree) doing something ...
by swaption
Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 131
Views: 15636

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

OP, your situation and goals are very similar to mine almost 10 years ago. Your goal here *is* possible (I more or less achieved it) but it is definitely the road less traveled. Here's some of my experience in case it's helpful: I am (or was) a ChemE and I wanted to work a max of 10 years in corpor...
by swaption
Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protection: TIPS or Gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 3273

Re: Inflation Protection: TIPS or Gold?

Kind of surprised at the uniformity of replies here. TIPS may indeed be a better investment, and that investment is to a large extent insulated from inflation. But if someone were looking for something that provides broader portfolio wide protection (assuming a portfolio of non-TIPS bonds and stocks...
by swaption
Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio
Replies: 47
Views: 3071

Re: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio

Not sure what else I can add. Might be most beneficial to simply look at the following history of earnings and dividends for the S&P 500. Obviously some amount of volatility along the way, but you see the rising tide of earnings, dividends, and that portion of earnings that is retained. The rise...
by swaption
Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio
Replies: 47
Views: 3071

Re: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio

Put very simply in a simplistic model, the expected stock price appreciation should be based on the net earnings yield, after distribution of dividends. In your example, of the 6.67% earnings yield, let's assume 3% is paid out as dividends. The expected price appreciation attributable only to earnin...
by swaption
Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is information a bad thing for returns??
Replies: 42
Views: 2113

Re: Is information a bad thing for returns??

I disagree. It's a lot easier to find good no load funds nowadays, especially if you do it yourself and stay away from sharks. The fact that interest rates are at historic lows in a completely separate issue... Issue is we are in a low return environment stocks bonds interest rates etc. They are no...
by swaption
Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End
Replies: 40
Views: 3755

Re: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End

2-3 year old tacomas at least from carmax are only a thousand or two lower than their original MSRP. It sucks their is no lease incentives but I assume that is because of the high residual value estimate. You really do have to understand what is going on here. 2-3 years ago that Tacoma residual was...
by swaption
Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End
Replies: 40
Views: 3755

Re: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End

Very bad idea. The way a manufacturer provides incentives in a lease is to subsidize the contract residual value. What this does is it artificially inflates the contract lease end purchase price to a level above what is expected, and thereby it reduces the monthly lease payments. As a result, the le...
by swaption
Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is ready for iphone 7?
Replies: 149
Views: 13146

Re: Who is ready for iphone 7?

Understand that over here there would be skeptics, but this is the real deal in terms of trade-in. Hit the $650 trade-in for the iphone 6 on my wife's phone, when I was actually only calling to upgrade my daughter's phone. In her case, she has a 5C for which they were offering an equally absurd reb...
by swaption
Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Big Short
Replies: 196
Views: 25416

Re: The Big Short

I thoroughly enjoyed the movie, as did my gf, which surprised me since she is not particularly interested in finance. The one shocking feature to me was the mention at the end of the 2015 appearance of the "Bespoke Tranche Opportunity", described as a repackaging of the old familiar CDO w...
by swaption
Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is ready for iphone 7?
Replies: 149
Views: 13146

Re: Who is ready for iphone 7?

Understand that over here there would be skeptics, but this is the real deal in terms of trade-in. Hit the $650 trade-in for the iphone 6 on my wife's phone, when I was actually only calling to upgrade my daughter's phone. In her case, she has a 5C for which they were offering an equally absurd reba...
by swaption
Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How dangerous is Kids Gymnastics?
Replies: 38
Views: 3265

Re: How dangerous is Kids Gymnastics?

Our daughter made it to the beginning of Level 7. At Level 5, she broke both bones in her forearm. Really crazy getting that phone call and then seeing your daughter's arm in a different shape. The x-ray was like a caricature of an x-ray, but no surgery necessary. She came back, and then left at Lev...
by swaption
Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3583

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

Hi Swaption, Isn't it a bit early to celebrate victory??? :happy If I line up total stock (VTI) vs say vanguard REIT (VNQ) from day following Dr Bernstein post, I think Morningstar says my REITs are still down by ~15% compared to selling all and buying VTI or S&P500. http://quotes.morningstar.c...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What makes people succeed?
Replies: 98
Views: 9302

Re: What makes people succeed?

You want to be liked You want people to like working with you You want to be constructive You want to be engaged You want to be effective and productive You want to be cooperative You want to care about the effectiveness of your group and your organization You want to be attentive and communicate ef...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 109
Views: 11191

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

What are some good prudent rules of thumb for one's max house value as a % of net worth? It seems a lot of people think about it from an income perspective, but I have not come across a rule of thumb for net worth. Obviously this is a complicated consideration and dependent on many factors (e.g., w...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Winter Tires: Yay or Nay
Replies: 105
Views: 6857

Re: Winter Tires: Yay or Nay

Have done this, separate set of tires and rims on my wife's SUV. Makes a huge difference. Really need to do it for my BMW, those tires turn into rocks when it is cold, a real issue. All wheel drive is not sufficient to compensate in cold and snow.
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3583

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

The odds of this or that expert understanding the entire story just seems pretty low. Compounding the problem in this case is that there is no reason to expect Dr. Bernstein to be an expert on REITs. No doubt he is an expert on all sorts of topics, and in fact he did years ago write something very ...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3583

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

Digging a bit further into this. in addition to the interest rate side of the story, that was essentially embedded in the "speculative return" part of Bill's equation, I also questioned the assumptions regarding dividend growth. In short, I saw no fundamental rationale for dividends growin...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3583

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

And further, to open with your reference to confirmation bias is just plain dismissive and insulting. Sometime that is obviously the case, but I have absolutely no indication that you have sufficiently thought through anything that I have written to come to that conclusion in this case.
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3583

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

Funny how confirmation bias works. The math is what it is. And in LONG TERM it is correct. It's just that higher valuations don't predict TOMORROW'S returns all that well, and in fact momentum works against that in the short term. It's no different than when I sold all but value stocks in 1998, kno...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3583

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

What about REITS and interest rate? Did I miss something? Much of what I said on this can be found in the original thread which can be found in the link shared by Angst above. The gist of it is that Bernstein's approach uses Bogles's somewhat simplified approach to calculate expected returns for eq...
by swaption
Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3583

Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

The following was posted on May 6, 2013: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns? Postby Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013 9:10 pm Hi all: I very rarely post a new topic, but I do feel compelled to comment on REITs. I’ve seen more than a few posters remark favorably on the high realized ...
by swaption
Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 122
Views: 21000

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

Had not seen the subsequent replies from 2014 until now, but the recent markets harkened me back to this original thread. I often find these interactions with Dr. Bernstein akin to the punk intent to pick a fight with the biggest guy in the bar, and I guess in this case I was the punk. But one can ...
by swaption
Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a House as an Investment?
Replies: 33
Views: 2689

Re: Buying a House as an Investment?

I'm moving somewhere for a year to three years and the cost between buying/renting is marginal. However, if I buy a house and rent it out after I move does this become a smart investment? I could own it for over ten years and sell it after it appreciates in value. Is it worth the trouble of dealing...
by swaption
Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: building a house- realtor recommends selling and renting?
Replies: 22
Views: 2505

Re: building a house- realtor recommends selling and renting?

I actually don't think moving twice is that big a deal. The hard part is just moving. If it were me, I would put 90% of my stuff in storage and then just give the movers the green light when it is time to move into your new place. In the meantime, perhaps you can live a somewhat austere existence in...
by swaption
Wed May 25, 2016 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Moral Support for FA Breakup!
Replies: 68
Views: 5671

Re: Need Moral Support for FA Breakup!

These conversations remind me of the wounded bear analogy in Brad Gilbert's Winning Ugly. He described the effort of a tennis player that is down in a match as similar to that of a wounded bear in a fight. The bear will go above and beyond to maintain survival and the path to victory will require ex...
by swaption
Fri May 20, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pride in no inheritance to kids?
Replies: 233
Views: 3233

Re: Pride in no inheritance to kids?

Pride is important and self respect for managing life so that you could support a family well is important too. Sometimes pride can get in the way. If you are middle age and have done well enough to prove to yourself and your family/friends that you had the right stuff -- why would taking an inheri...
by swaption
Fri May 20, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pride in no inheritance to kids?
Replies: 233
Views: 3233

Re: Pride in no inheritance to kids?

Ignored this thread for a while, and actually an interesting topic. I will admit to being a bit bothered by one line of thread in particular. Occasionally there will be some reference to the ability to retiring early based on some level of inheritance. While my parents have left me nothing and in fa...
by swaption
Wed May 18, 2016 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hail damage on roof; what to do with Insurance Providers' $9,950 check
Replies: 51
Views: 4624

Re: Hail damage on roof; what to do with Insurance Providers' $9,950 check

Interesting. I was told after a ice damn claim that I could rip up check and cancel the claim and it would be expunged from record. Maybe not true? What if one just gets an estimate, but declines payment and never gets a check? I ended up cashing it, doing no significant repairs and hoping my premi...
by swaption
Wed May 18, 2016 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Destination, Not Journey?
Replies: 20
Views: 2605

Re: Destination, Not Journey?

Saying goes, you don't know what you don't know. But you should have an idea of the magnitude. In your case, you need to know that there is an enormous amount that you don't know, simply because at your stage of life it is unknowable. That journey you refer to is this thing called life and from all ...
by swaption
Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)
Replies: 108
Views: 14069

Re: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)

My advice is take some time for some serious self-reflection. This is going to come off as a bit harsh, but I mean it from a place of tough love: You sound like a bad employee and a bad coworker. I think you really need to reassess your strengths and weaknesses and try to re-orient your attitude to...
by swaption
Wed Apr 27, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)
Replies: 108
Views: 14069

Re: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)

I don't really expect people to understand the totality of the situation, since there is a lot of backstory to what's going on. I'm getting a few advice of "do a good job and you'll be fine" - I'm afraid that's extremely naive. I have no assurances that if I do a good job my contract will...
by swaption
Wed Apr 27, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)
Replies: 108
Views: 14069

Re: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)

I mentored a very bright, hard working top 5% new guy about 5 years ago. I was about 4 levels up from him, but saw something promising so I took him under my wing. He spent 90% of his time doing great work, and 10% bemoaning the impact of office politics on him and letting everyone around him know ...
by swaption
Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)
Replies: 108
Views: 14069

Re: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)

I don't think I started as a bad employee/co-worker, and my actions has been shaped on how I have been treated. I've always made reasonable comparison, notably against against Brian, who is also the first-year on the job. I benchmark myself against Brian, so my "resentment" about certain ...
by swaption
Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?
Replies: 43
Views: 4818

Re: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?

Some combination of logic and common sense lead to the conclusion that stocks are riskier and should be expected to be priced to provide a return premium.

Past performance merely provides evidence to support the aforementioned logic and common sense.
by swaption
Wed Apr 13, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on Buying a House with Illegal Basement?
Replies: 44
Views: 6170

Re: Advice on Buying a House with Illegal Basement?

Will make this simple, and I am a NY homeowner, so I think this may be consistent. Should not necessarily be any concerns regarding safety or suitability tied only to the fact that there is no C of O. Extraordinarily common to have basements of this sort with no C of O. I have one (although much nic...
by swaption
Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does FICO know your income?
Replies: 29
Views: 3775

Re: How does FICO know your income?

FICO is a behavioral score based on your credit activity and accounts.

Anything beyond that, including income is part of loan underwriting. As a result FICO does not fully explain loan performance.
by swaption
Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is foreign investing really worth it
Replies: 90
Views: 7023

Re: is foreign investing really worth it

Want to invest in Finland with Russia buzzing them with Jets and getting adventurous with border "enhancement". If you are a country close to China or Russia you have to be looking over your shoulder. Your corporations may be doing fine and then maybe not so well. The US has pretty good r...
by swaption
Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is foreign investing really worth it
Replies: 90
Views: 7023

Re: is foreign investing really worth it

One thing to add. Further addressing the sufficiency of the international exposure embedded in US companies. One can use the significant underperformance of international as very strong evidence that such international exposure is not sufficient. The implication is that direct investment in foreign ...
by swaption
Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is foreign investing really worth it
Replies: 90
Views: 7023

Re: is foreign investing really worth it

[ Current performance of foreign investing is challenging the patience of the investor. As I get closer to retirement age, I am losing patience. The current geopolitical and economic conditions in Europe do not look promising for my time horizon. You have to understand that "the current geopol...
by swaption
Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is foreign investing really worth it
Replies: 90
Views: 7023

Re: Fundamental guidance?

To some extent he (Mr. Bogle) might be the last person I would turn to in terms of some form of fundamentally based guidance.[/u] swaption: If not Mr. Bogle, who do you turn to for " fundamentally based guidance ?" Wm Bernstein, author of many financial books, wrote this: "When I dis...
by swaption
Sun Apr 03, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is foreign investing really worth it
Replies: 90
Views: 7023

Re: is foreign investing really worth it

If not due to yesterday's performance, then what exactly is the rationale for questioning your approach? Based on Bogle? To some extent he might be the last person I would turn to in terms of some form of fundamentally based guidance. It's no secret that's not really his thing. It's also no secret t...
by swaption
Sun Apr 03, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Antelope Canyon/Cathedral Canyon
Replies: 13
Views: 1846

Re: Antelope Canyon/Cathedral Canyon

I did the Navajo tour that started at a downtown convenience store. We went out on a truck with chief Tustie (sp???). It was a short ride out of Page. It was awesome seeing the slot canyon. It was all easy walking, so it must not be the one with the stairs. Got some great pics. Just did this exact ...

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