Search found 237 matches

by surfer1
Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

How do you pull the guesses from the forum thread? I think you might have a better technique than I do. I parse the posts automatically, using a regular expression. It works pretty well. I hope you're not doing it manually, although sometimes you have to inspect the posts visually to make sure ever...
by surfer1
Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

sport wrote:At this time, all the predictions have not yet been entered in the contest.


I noticed that too, on the official contest site. However, the predictions in the above charts come directly from the forum thread, not the contest site. :)
by surfer1
Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts
Replies: 10
Views: 805

2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Now that the 2017 Boglehead Contest is officially underway and all bids have been placed, I ran some graphs of the predictions. I posted this last year too, and I think it was both interesting and fun! I'll leave it to the experts to draw any conclusions. As usual, however, Bogleheads have an overal...
by surfer1
Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Returns on the S&P500
Replies: 34
Views: 2328

Investing Returns on the S&P500

Here is an excellent analysis of long-term buy-and-hold investing of a lump-sum over the period of 140 years. I thought others may find this interesting! Investing Returns on the S&P500 The TL;DR goes like this: Chance of Loss in 100% S&P 500 2 years: 30% 5 years: 20% 10 years: 10% 15 years:...
by surfer1
Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Battling Deer Ticks, Opinions Sought
Replies: 66
Views: 5037

Re: Battling Deer Ticks, Opinions Sought

For your own yard, keep the grass mowed very short. Ticks like long grass, where they can climb up, quest, and latch onto your pants as you pass by. This is particularly a problem when hiking in the woods, where grass and shrubs are not cut. In those cases, I spray "Deep Woods Off" (with D...
by surfer1
Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: corrected Consolidated Form 1099
Replies: 18
Views: 744

Re: corrected Consolidated Form 1099

saves nine wrote:I wonder if I shouldn't just wait until April to file and avoid this anxiety.


This, exactly. You can always complete your taxes online and just don't submit them until April.
by surfer1
Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Preventing soil from gathering on driveway
Replies: 14
Views: 1140

Re: Preventing soil from gathering on driveway

Instead of replacing the driveway, why not build a poor-man's french drain? It looks like you've got a depression in that pic, which would be perfect for it. Something as simple as a dug out groove along the driveway soil, descending towards the depression, could be enough to redirect the water away...
by surfer1
Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MUB or BND in Taxable [ iShares National AMT-Free Muni vs. Vanguard Total Bond]
Replies: 5
Views: 808

Re: MUB or BND in Taxable

I use both. MUB has a slightly higher duration at 6.3 yrs versus BND at 5.66 yrs (according to Morningstar; iShares is actually showing MUB at 4.68 yrs). Volatility tends to be a little bit higher for MUB. Liquidity is a lot higher for BND.
by surfer1
Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bond funds do you use, and why?
Replies: 55
Views: 4725

Re: What bond funds do you use, and why?

BND and MUB in taxable. I split between the two to moderate the duration.
by surfer1
Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage Corrected 1099-DIV
Replies: 20
Views: 1908

Re: Vanguard Brokerage Corrected 1099-DIV

I've received a corrected 1099-DIV every year for the past ~5 years. This is the exact reason why I have not filed yet, even if an expected refund. I file at the end of March. If you get a corrected 1099 after filing and it's for a small amount (< $100), I'd consider ignoring it. As another poster m...
by surfer1
Sun Mar 13, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most hated market is positive YTD
Replies: 5
Views: 2204

Re: The most hated market is positive YTD

Yes, this small recovery is certainly a relief for high yield and it still has a long way to go. It's following oil, so volatility up and down is likely to continue. Cramer also dislikes high yield. Much of the debt has been ensconced in high-yield debt funds, and if you haven't heard me before I am...
by surfer1
Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roommate issue
Replies: 18
Views: 2935

Re: Roommate issue

I'd first recommend him talking to the roommates to come up with some last ditch agreement that lets him stay through the rest of the lease. It's only a couple months and the other roommates did agree to room together to begin with. They should honor the agreement. I know that being around people wh...
by surfer1
Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pay and investment for 5 yo child
Replies: 39
Views: 3585

Re: Pay and investment for 5 yo child

There's also the option of a custodial account. Capital One (Sharebuilder) has a bonus for opening one. While not a tax shelter, it would give you both the option to decide what to do when he's older.
by surfer1
Sat Feb 20, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active vs Passive - High-Yield Bond Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2366

Re: Active vs Passive - High-Yield Bond Funds

For a small portion of my bond portfolio, I am looking to add a high-yield corporate bond fund. There are some good responses here, but I'd also mention that junk bonds are better thought of as equities, rather than bonds. Since the bond portion of a portfolio is meant to provide stability, I don't...
by surfer1
Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any audible users out there? Worth it?
Replies: 21
Views: 1857

Re: Any audible users out there? Worth it?

I suggest playing the tracks at 2x speed (the iphone has a setting to change the playback speed like this). Your brain really does adapt to it.
by surfer1
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis
Replies: 9
Views: 1318

Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Do we know where the Wall Street Professionals (are there 15 this year?) end up in these charts? Does any one know who they are? How they "guess?" They're listed on the contest site with a little asterisk next to their bid. There were 10 bids from experts and they're all bullish. The aver...
by surfer1
Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 28742

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

As promised, I've created the charts from the 2016 contest entries. You can view them here.

Thanks.
by surfer1
Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis
Replies: 9
Views: 1318

2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Now that the 2016 Boglehead Contest has officially begun, I thought it would be interesting to perform a basic analysis of the entries. I'll leave it to the experts to draw any conclusions, but I will make one observation: Bogleheads have an overall positive outlook for the year! Some notable entrie...
by surfer1
Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 28742

Re: Registration had ended for the 2016 contest

The registration had ended for the 2016 contest. I'll go through and verify entries since it is semi-automatic, but still partially manual. Let me know if you notice any mistakes. The count looks correct. I've collected 600 entries before the midnight deadline, and an additional 2 after. So looks l...
by surfer1
Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 28742

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

sawhorse wrote:Is someone planning to graph the predictions?


I am. :happy

I put together a quick script to collect the numbers and draw some charts. I'll post the results tomorrow. We'll all have a few good laughs, I'm sure.
by surfer1
Thu Jan 07, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jackpot Now Estimated $700 Million, who's in?
Replies: 149
Views: 7728

Re: Jackpot Now Estimated $700 Million, who's in?

blu9535 wrote:You're probably more likely to die in a car accident on the drive home from purchasing the ticket than you are to win the jackpot.


Lifetime chance of dying in a car accident is 1 in 77.
by surfer1
Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction
Replies: 103
Views: 11530

Re: CORRECTION...Corection...Correction

Honestly, stay the course. That's why we're here. But, for your enjoyment, here's some financial eye-candy: " Gartman: Bull Market Is Over ". January 06, 2016 - Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter thinks the bull market is officially over. Gartman unveiled his thesis in a new note to subs...
by surfer1
Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting high yield bond returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1606

Re: Predicting high yield bond returns

I've read that article as well. Btw, there are certainly a lot more posts on high yield in this forum recently. I've been using junk bonds as a conservative replacement for a percentage of stocks. They usually aren't as volatile as equities, with the last 6 months being the exception. At least the c...
by surfer1
Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Several electrical outlets don't work
Replies: 50
Views: 3237

Re: Several electrical outlets don't work

I'm going to guess that the problem outlets are on the same circuit. The working bathroom may or may not be on the same circuit, but this cannot be assumed. I would trace the problem outlets back towards the first working outlet or breaker box (they are probably connected in a series). If you remove...
by surfer1
Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: vwehx [Vanguard Hi-Yield Corporate Fund]
Replies: 52
Views: 3929

Re: vwehx [Vanguard Hi-Yield Corporate Fund]

I use an allocation to junk bonds as a substitute for part of my equity allocation. I do not consider them in the same category as "bonds". They tend to follow the same direction as stocks, although that has not been the case over the past year. It's following the drop in oil, and more rec...
by surfer1
Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 168
Views: 23361

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

I own some JNK which has around 20% exposure to the energy sector, including oil. That's the closest I get to actually buying energy stocks. These high yield funds have taken a real beating since the summer, following the decline in oil, yet I have not changed any allocations. So, buy and hold. I th...
by surfer1
Sun Nov 22, 2015 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage or cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 2335

Re: Mortgage or cash?

I vote cash. You clearly have the reserves to do this. You'll get to make a stronger offer at purchase time and avoid the hassle of dealing with banks, mortgage applications, and fees. Ask yourself this, if you already owned the house fully paid off, would you go and take out a mortgage on it to inv...
by surfer1
Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to pay Self Employment Tax??
Replies: 14
Views: 932

Re: How to pay Self Employment Tax??

Here is another way to avoid penalty from Pub 505: Less Than $1,000 Due You do not owe a penalty if the total tax shown on your return minus the amount you paid through withholding (including excess social se-curity and tier 1 railroad retirement (RRTA) tax withholding) is less than $1,000. To clar...
by surfer1
Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fender Bender - Pursue at-fault's insurance or direct?
Replies: 17
Views: 1383

Re: Fender Bender - Pursue at-fault's insurance or direct?

First step, always call your own insurance company and report the accident. Don't deal directly with the driver - that's a job for the police - other than getting the insurance info, license, and/or VIN # of the car. Your premium should not go up if you are not at fault. Your insurance company will ...
by surfer1
Wed Oct 14, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Northwest FCU 3-year 3.04% Add-On CD
Replies: 329
Views: 30409

Re: Northwest FCU 3-year 3.04% Add-On CD

I seriously considered opening one of these CDs, but ultimately decided against it, based upon this forum post alone. There is too much uncertainty. I'd be concerned with what will happen upon maturation. I think this is one of the cases where the boglehead philosophy of "simplicity" out-w...
by surfer1
Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Mantra Sells Out
Replies: 28
Views: 7854

Re: Dividend Mantra Sells Out

I followed his blog as well and enjoyed his posts. I'm disappointed in him selling out, as it seems somewhat hypocritical. His blog was about financial independence through dividend income, alone. It's also unfortunate that the buyer seems to want to stop the very things that made the blog interesti...
by surfer1
Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I am running out of excuses to not move out
Replies: 71
Views: 7556

Re: I am running out of excuses to not move out

This is really a personal decision and depends largely on the relationship between you and your parents. When I moved away for college, I never moved back and that was that. After college, went straight to an apartment and never even gave a thought to the idea of moving back "home". It was...
by surfer1
Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Issue -- How do I recover?
Replies: 48
Views: 5511

Re: Career Issue -- How do I recover?

It might be time to start looking for a new job. At least looking around and doing some interviews can't hurt. Being passed up for a promotion or new role is sometimes a sign that you've been boxed in to your current role. If you really like your current job, then perhaps accept the decision and stay.
by surfer1
Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Laid off recently and would like job search advice.
Replies: 34
Views: 4349

Re: Laid off recently and would like job search advice.

Create a LinkedIn profile. Include a picture. For the main description section, briefly describe your professional background and include a list of keywords for all of the technologies and programming languages that you know. Stuff those keywords in there. Recruiters will pick up your profile when t...
by surfer1
Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VHT down 27% - Glitch or missed opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 8149

Re: VHT down 27% - Glitch or missed opportunity

I think there was also a glitch with SDY, as Yahoo Finance reported it down over 11% to $66, when I first opened my laptop, then when I refreshed the screen it was only down around 2%. SDY was trading at 48 for a couple minutes there and under 60 for a bit longer. I think it was a panic sale from o...
by surfer1
Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)
Replies: 95
Views: 11812

Re: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)

IMHO, given the week as a whole, I think today could be considered an RBD. If you were already planning on putting some cash to work, today seems like as good of a day as any. Will it go lower? Who knows. But, if you're waiting for a -1000 drop, then you're waiting for one of those days in 2008.
by surfer1
Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvest? If so, how?
Replies: 11
Views: 1629

Re: Tax loss harvest? If so, how?

I was considering this too, but ultimately decided against it. TLH is really like a tax deferral. This article explains it best: "For example, assume an investment was purchased for $100,000, but is now worth only $90,000 due to a significant market decline. The investor harvests the $10,000 ca...
by surfer1
Fri Aug 07, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I want to stop paying for Bright House cable modem
Replies: 23
Views: 6426

Re: I want to stop paying for Bright House cable modem

You can buy your own cable model and it should last for many years (until your provider does a major network update). I recommend the ARRIS SB6141 or the ARRIS SB6121 . Both *should* be compatible with your provider, but you'll need to confirm. You'll also need a wireless router. I like the TP-LINK ...
by surfer1
Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seller conceals known defects: fraud question
Replies: 53
Views: 6646

Re: Seller conceals known defects: fraud question

My question: If it's unarguable that a seller knows of a property's defects BEFORE he enters into a contract, is he guilty of fraud? Not a lawyer, but I think you'd have to prove that the seller intentionally hid defects during the sale. I actually think this has less to do with fraud and whatever ...
by surfer1
Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax free bond fund vs muni fund for "safety" money
Replies: 1
Views: 369

Re: Tax free bond fund vs muni fund for "safety" money

They're both muni funds. Here is the description for SWNTX: "The investment seeks high current income that is exempt from federal income tax, consistent with capital preservation. To pursue its goal, the fund primarily invests in investment-grade municipal securities." Looking at morningst...
by surfer1
Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Div Reinvesting. Really so bad?
Replies: 33
Views: 3943

Re: Auto Div Reinvesting. Really so bad?

I haven't enabled DRIP re-investing, simply because the amounts are too low and due to the tax consequences. You can always use the average cost basis method when doing your taxes, but as shown in the link above, it doesn't always come out right. If you have lots of DRIP purchases and don't want to ...
by surfer1
Mon Jul 20, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do I fix a hole in this wooden door?
Replies: 42
Views: 4197

Re: How do I fix a hole in this wooden door?

I've repaired holes in doors before, typically using wood putty. It's a white power that you mix with water and it begins to harden like cement. You spackle it on the door, similar to sheet-rock spackle. Then sand and paint. However, in this case, the door is splintered and not painted. The easiest ...
by surfer1
Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: losing money on a house....how do Bogleheads deal with it emotionally?
Replies: 76
Views: 7767

Re: losing money on a house....how do Bogleheads deal with it emotionally?

Here is the method I used when I sold mine at a loss. Take the dollar amount of loss and divide it by the number of months you've lived in the house. That is roughly the amount you paid in rent to live in the house. It's actually a little better than this. You can deduct another 25% of the average m...
by surfer1
Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I have a dilemma? Should I provide a concession?
Replies: 20
Views: 3139

Re: I have a dilemma? Should I provide a concession?

I agree with the above comments. I'm sure the sale contract states that it's the seller's responsibility to maintain the house in the same condition as when it went under contract. Unfortunately, that means you must fix the floors prior to closing. It's likely a concession from the buyer that they'r...
by surfer1
Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 15702

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

OP, I tried to send you a PM but it seems to not be going through. I might be able to offer you some advice with a bit more info. Greg17, I'm interested in your point of view as well. I think there are quite a few software devs in this forum. Any chance you can post in the thread or does this conta...
by surfer1
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 15702

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

2012 / $100K / $120K 2013 / $115K / $170K 2014 / $130K / $200K 2015 / $150K / $240K 2016* / $165K / $250K[/code] I was going to guess that you must be with a wall street firm to get a salary that high in NYC. I've been peeking around at roles in the NJ/NYC area and am seeing ranges of 100k - 140k (...
by surfer1
Sun Jun 21, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 15702

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

I think job-hopping is, unfortunately, the best way to move forward in IT. Companies simply don't offer raises that are competitive with what you can get by moving on. In some cases, a resume that shows someone working at a company for 5+ years (in IT) may actually be a negative. They might question...
by surfer1
Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LastPass.com Breach
Replies: 155
Views: 17584

Re: LastPass.com Breach

Why not? A phrase from a song seems like an ideal passphrase. A phrase from a song might not be the first target in a brute-force attack (they're aiming for obvious dictionary terms first), but lyrics are publicly available and can be obtained en-masse. That means your password is sitting (in some ...

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