Search found 116 matches
- Sat Oct 07, 2023 6:18 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How long should a retiree's TIPS ladder be, and why?
- Replies: 78
- Views: 9669
Re: How long should a retiree's TIPS ladder be, and why?
By the way, I think there may be something inaccurate about the quoted survival probabilities above. I was born in 1952. The population of the US in 1952 was about 157.500,000. Over 116 million of them are still alive. Let's assume that, since women live longer than men, at least 50 million of those still alive are men my age or older (probably an underestimate). There are only 16000 male centenarians alive in the US today. In 30 years there are going to be A LOT of 100 year olds, and not because of medical advances (though I’m sure there will be some), but because in 2053 the baby boomers will be 100. In other words, if there are only 16,000 100 year olds today it is largely because there were a lot fewer people born in 1923 compared to 1...
- Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:24 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Deflation protection with TIPS
- Replies: 40
- Views: 5098
Re: Deflation protection with TIPS
So a TIPS bought on the secondary market can lose nominal value but not real value in deflation?
- Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:09 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Deflation protection with TIPS
- Replies: 40
- Views: 5098
Re: Deflation protection with TIPS
If the prices of goods and services go up (inflation) TIPS protect you in real terms (your purchasing power is protected). In other words, You can buy the same amount of goods and services even though the prices of goods and services are higher. If the prices of goods and services go down (deflation) TIPS protect you in real terms (your purchasing power is protected). In other words, You can buy the same amount of goods and services since the prices of goods and services are lower. BobK If this is true, then I suppose there is nothing to be worried about… However, my understanding is that this is not true. If you buy a 30-year TIPS bond on the secondary market and it has 1 year left until maturity and there is 10% deflation in that year, d...
- Wed Sep 20, 2023 5:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Deflation protection with TIPS
- Replies: 40
- Views: 5098
Deflation protection with TIPS
So I’m hoping to build a TIPS ladder over time to produce a liability-matching portfolio (LMP). In doing so, I have been pondering if it is better to buy new TIPS issues at auction or to buy TIPS on the secondary market. My understanding is that both options will provide the stated “real return” (i.e., after-inflation) in the same way, but what about deflation? In deflation, the hypothetical “money under the mattress” provides a positive real return. However, an inflation-linked bond gets adjusted down in value if there is deflation. It seems a TIPS bought at auction provides some protection from this by effectively becoming “money under the mattress” because it will always pay its face value, but TIPS on the secondary market does not provi...
- Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Donating I bonds to avoid capital gains tax
- Replies: 33
- Views: 3206
Donating I bonds to avoid capital gains tax
I have $40,000 of ibonds that are going to be worth $45,272 in October. Is it possible to donate the $45,272 to avoid the $5,272 capital gain?
- Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:04 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How to generate [$120,000/year] from investments
- Replies: 58
- Views: 11544
Re: How to generate [$120,000/year] from investments
The TIPS ladder has more specificity and one can truly ignore them once purchased and simply allow them to mature.
http://www.tipsladder.com/
http://www.tipsladder.com/
- Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:49 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How to generate [$120,000/year] from investments
- Replies: 58
- Views: 11544
Re: How to generate [$120,000/year] from investments
A 70% bond position would be $2.8 million. Interestingly, a 30-year TIPS ladder of $120,000/year (guaranteed, inflation-adjusted each year) currently costs $2.84 million, so that would leave the rest (30%) to be invested in stocks. Seems perfect.
- Sun May 07, 2023 9:03 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: No Love for VT/VTWAX?
- Replies: 49
- Views: 6441
Re: No Love for VT/VTWAX?
No tax deduction for VT. Separating them out to VTI and VXUS gives a tax deduction.
- Fri Apr 14, 2023 8:00 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: When are quarterly estimated taxes for 2023 due?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 2099
Re: When are quarterly estimated taxes for 2023 due?
Just so I’m clear, if you live in an disaster affected county of California (which it seems to be most of California), you have until October 16 to pay your first 3 quarterly estimated tax payments?
So if my safe harbor quarterly estimated tax were $30,000, I could pay $90,000 in October 2023 and $30,000 in January 2024 and not incur a penalty?
If so, I’ll just invest in Tbills and collect interest on the money until it is due in October.
So if my safe harbor quarterly estimated tax were $30,000, I could pay $90,000 in October 2023 and $30,000 in January 2024 and not incur a penalty?
If so, I’ll just invest in Tbills and collect interest on the money until it is due in October.
- Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:29 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What financial areas do you make sacrifices?
- Replies: 80
- Views: 7059
Re: What financial areas do you make sacrifices?
OP, 1) What is the price of your house? If you overspend on your house, nothing else matters. 2) Do you spend first and save later? Or, you save first and spend later? IMHO, those are the two key questions. If someone do not overspend on their houses and they save first and spend later, everything else will work out fine. If not, nothing else matters. KlangFool He says he has a 30% savings rate. I usually agree with your views on houses, but I would argue “all that matters” is your savings rate. For me, most threads on Bogleheads are overly subjective. We should always be asking: 1. When do you want to retire?, 2. How old are you now?, 3. How much do you want to spend in retirement?, and 4. How much do you make now? — from that information...
- Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:30 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I bought a rental, what if I bought an S&P 500 instead?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 7462
Re: I bought a rental, what if I bought an S&P 500 instead?
A $500k investment into $2.5 million of properties that drops 20% loses $500k, which means $0 equity on the properties.
At that point, all that has to happen is the other shoe to drop (job loss, rental vacancies, unexpected expenses) and you don’t even have the chance to stick around for the eventual recovery. You are forced to walk away from some or all of the properties and realize the loss.
At that point, all that has to happen is the other shoe to drop (job loss, rental vacancies, unexpected expenses) and you don’t even have the chance to stick around for the eventual recovery. You are forced to walk away from some or all of the properties and realize the loss.
- Mon Apr 03, 2023 6:44 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I bought a rental, what if I bought an S&P 500 instead?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 7462
Re: I bought a rental, what if I bought an S&P 500 instead?
20% down on an investment property? So one takes their life savings, let’s say $500k, and decides to invest it. They consider either 100% stocks or leveraged single family homes. With the real estate option, they buy 10 $250k homes each with $50k down. The market takes a turn for the worse, dropping 20%, making their investment now worth $0. Simultaneously, the same conditions that created this market drop have resulted in the investor losing his job and 4 of the renters to stop paying. Investor is bankrupt. With the unleveraged S&P 500 option, it can’t go to 0. This is why I would only consider real estate if I were unleveraged and buying it with no more than 50% of my portfolio. However, the other negatives (such as the non-passive na...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 1:14 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Tesla (or EVs in general) - real-world inconveniences?
- Replies: 139
- Views: 13454
Re: Tesla (or EVs in general) - real-world inconveniences?
I don’t have the most efficient model of Tesla (the model 3 performance) and I drive with a lead foot. I go 75 mph on the freeway on average, so I get almost exactly 3 miles per kWh. Here is what a 550 mile trip would look like in my Tesla: Leg 1: 100% to 20% - 65.6 kWh = 196.8 miles Charge stop 1: Charge 15 minutes to 80% Leg 2: 80% to 20% - 49.2 kWh = 147.6 miles Charge stop 2: Charge 15 minutes to 80% Leg 3: 80% to 20% - 49.2 kWh = 147.6 miles Charge stop 3: Charge 6 minutes to 50% Leg 4: 50% to 26% - 19.3 kWh = 58 miles Summary: drive for 2 hours 37 minutes, then stop for 15 minutes, then drive for 1 hour 58 minutes, then stop for 15 minutes, then drive for 1 hour 58 minutes, then stop for 6 minutes, drive 50 minutes, arrive at destinat...
- Sat Mar 18, 2023 9:31 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Is the US facing major EV home charging problems?
- Replies: 83
- Views: 4863
Re: Is the US facing major EV home charging problems?
Depends on how much you drive around town.
I have a Tesla and charge at home with a regular wall outlet (120V) and it gives me about 40 miles of range every night, which is 14,600 miles per year. That is plenty for me. If you drive more miles than that on a daily basis, you’ll want a more powerful home charger.
On long trips, I use the Supercharger network, which is simple and fast.
Contrary to what you hear (from non-EV owners), the number of chargers around town is irrelevant. You will NEVER charge your car with anything other than your home charger within 100 miles of your home, so there doesn’t need to be “as many chargers as gas stations”. It’s like your phone, you just plug in every night. Totally different mindset than a gas car.
I have a Tesla and charge at home with a regular wall outlet (120V) and it gives me about 40 miles of range every night, which is 14,600 miles per year. That is plenty for me. If you drive more miles than that on a daily basis, you’ll want a more powerful home charger.
On long trips, I use the Supercharger network, which is simple and fast.
Contrary to what you hear (from non-EV owners), the number of chargers around town is irrelevant. You will NEVER charge your car with anything other than your home charger within 100 miles of your home, so there doesn’t need to be “as many chargers as gas stations”. It’s like your phone, you just plug in every night. Totally different mindset than a gas car.
- Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:20 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Did your TD Ameritrade a/c move to Schwab this weekend?
- Replies: 31
- Views: 5342
Re: Did your TD Ameritrade a/c move to Schwab this weekend?
What happens to HSA accounts at TD Ameritrade? Schwab doesn’t have HSA accounts.
- Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:00 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bill Bernstein: "Playing Inflation Russian Roulette in Retirement"
- Replies: 776
- Views: 69126
Re: Bill Bernstein: "Playing Inflation Russian Roulette in Retirement"
TIPS don’t work well for large taxable accounts. I wanted to take a stab at showing how even a high net worth individual can benefit from holding TIPS in taxable, so I came up with a scenario involving a billionaire who has decided to invest $1 billion in bonds in a taxable account and is deciding between a 5-year TIPS or a 5-year muni bond. Scenario: $1 billion in 0% 5-year TIPS versus $1 billion in 2% 5-year muni bond Assumptions: 10% annualized inflation 40% tax rate on the TIPS inflation adjustment, 0% tax on the muni bond interest TIPS (0% coupon, 10% inflation adjustment, 40% tax): Year 1 start value $1 billion, end value $1.1 billion, tax $0.04 billion, sell $0.04 billion from TIPS to pay taxes, final $1.06 billion. Year 2 start val...
- Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:09 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Having trouble selling bonds
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1163
Re: Having trouble selling bonds
I was finally able to get an order to go through. It had to be for 100,000 and I had to try a few times but it finally filled.
- Thu Nov 03, 2022 11:24 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Having trouble selling bonds
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1163
Re: Having trouble selling bonds
Fill or kill is the only choice
I've opened the depth of book and made sure to select 1 as the number of bonds for the worst price (to me), still won't fill.
I've opened the depth of book and made sure to select 1 as the number of bonds for the worst price (to me), still won't fill.
- Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:56 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Having trouble selling bonds
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1163
Having trouble selling bonds
I have an IRA account with Fidelity. I have 103,000 face value of 912810TE8 30-year TIPS. I want to sell down to 33,000 (so, sell a total of 70 $1000 bonds). I have entered my order in lots of different ways and still can't get the order to fill. My order stands currently as "Sell 70,000.00 of 912810TE8 Limit at $63.30 (Fill or Kill)". I wish there was a way to sell it as a Market Order, like an ETF. The bond orders force you to select a limit order, and then strictly within 10 basis points of whatever the market rate is at that moment. Effectively, I have found it impossible to sell any of my holdings.
I feel like I must be doing something wrong here, so I would appreciate any help with this.
I feel like I must be doing something wrong here, so I would appreciate any help with this.
- Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:03 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: New I bonds not worth it; consider selling old ones at next reset
- Replies: 251
- Views: 57159
Re: New I bonds not worth it; consider selling old ones at next reset
I bonds have better deflation protection, no interest rate risk, and tax deferral.
- Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pros/cons of buying 5-year TIPS right now?
- Replies: 89
- Views: 13615
Re: Pros/cons of buying 5-year TIPS right now?
Edit: be aware of phantom income taxation if you keep them in taxable accounts. Could you expand on this? I am in the process of building a monthly ladder of 1 year T-bills, but am starting to wonder if TIPS might be a better investment. The money is in a taxable account, and while it probably won't be touched for several years (or never), there is the possibility of liquidating it to make a real estate purchase in the next few years. TIPS in taxable have a feature that many find undesirable - which is called "phantom taxation." Basically, you are taxed (yearly) on both the interest rate and the principal increase, even though you do not receive the latter until maturity. Theoretically, this can present "a problem" for ...
- Sun Oct 16, 2022 10:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Buying an individual TIPS bond in 2017 dollars
- Replies: 8
- Views: 659
Re: Buying an individual TIPS bond in 2017 dollars
Fantastic, thank you all so much! #Cruncher that is just what I needed to build a spreadsheet of my TIPS purchases to keep a constant amount (inflation-adjusted) maturing each year in the future.
I got a chuckle out of the first few replies. I agree it seems sort of a strange question on the surface. I wrote my IPS in 2017, so I try to keep everything “in 2017 dollars” as my frame-of-reference. I also calculated, in 2017, that I could live off $30,000 per year, so wanted to make that my “floor” for a bond ladder that I will be building over the next 10 years.
Thank you all again for your help!
I got a chuckle out of the first few replies. I agree it seems sort of a strange question on the surface. I wrote my IPS in 2017, so I try to keep everything “in 2017 dollars” as my frame-of-reference. I also calculated, in 2017, that I could live off $30,000 per year, so wanted to make that my “floor” for a bond ladder that I will be building over the next 10 years.
Thank you all again for your help!
- Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:44 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Buying an individual TIPS bond in 2017 dollars
- Replies: 8
- Views: 659
Buying an individual TIPS bond in 2017 dollars
I’d like to buy $30,000 (in 2017 dollars) of a 30-year TIPS bond that matures in 2051 (bond 912810SV1 to be exact).
How do I go about making sure I buy the right amount of this bond so that in 2051, when the bond matures, I get $30,000 in 2017 dollars?
To make it easier, I’d like to exclude the bond coupon payments.
Thanks in advance for your help.
How do I go about making sure I buy the right amount of this bond so that in 2051, when the bond matures, I get $30,000 in 2017 dollars?
To make it easier, I’d like to exclude the bond coupon payments.
Thanks in advance for your help.
- Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
- Replies: 2259
- Views: 266989
Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Sorry if this has already been asked, but what about 30-year TIPS? My plan currently is 10% in bonds, 90% in stocks, so my thought was to use 30-year TIPS as my bond portion, held in retirement accounts to avoid the tax issues.
- Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:56 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 2043-47 TIPS paying 1.6%
- Replies: 72
- Views: 8341
Re: 2043-47 TIPS paying 1.6%
With significant deflation the best your TIPS can do is 0% real return. I bonds, on the other hand, will have a POSITIVE real return under all scenarios (overall, unless all 30 years of holding is marked by consistent deflation).FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:58 pmHow is this any different from a TIPS purchased at auction and held to maturity?Mel Lindauer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:53 am One of the nice advantages of I Bonds over TIPS is their DEflation protection.
Since the composite rate can never go below 0%, the greater the rate of deflation, the greater the I Bond's real rate of return will be.
- Thu Aug 25, 2022 7:06 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why valuations don't matter much
- Replies: 142
- Views: 10501
Re: Why valuations don't matter much
PE for the S&P 500 in December 2020 was 39.26. In July 2022 it was 19.77. Yet your investment would have gone from $10,000 to $10,795 in that time. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=2021&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leverag...
- Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I don’t understand my TIPS
- Replies: 22
- Views: 2090
Re: I don’t understand my TIPS
It’s a good thing I bought this investment in an IRA. I would have been cash flow negative after taxes in a taxable account. I think I understand how they work now. Their “value” in the eyes of the government is $108,811, even though I could only sell them for a current market value of $87,955. It would be super fun to pay taxes on a $5,000 “gain” that is paying $136 per year in interest and has had a massive market decline.
I guess all I can say is “buyer beware”.
That being said, I have mine in an IRA, and I think I’ll just sit on it for now and do nothing…
I guess all I can say is “buyer beware”.
That being said, I have mine in an IRA, and I think I’ll just sit on it for now and do nothing…
- Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I don’t understand my TIPS
- Replies: 22
- Views: 2090
Re: I don’t understand my TIPS
Thanks for the replies so far. So how do I figure out what my bonds are accumulating as time goes on?
912810TE8, quantity 103,000
Edit: also, I was mistaken, I got $68, not $62.
So 0.125% of 103,000 is $128.75. Half of that is $64.38. So it doesn’t exactly match up with the $68 I got, but at least I understand the concept now.
912810TE8, quantity 103,000
Edit: also, I was mistaken, I got $68, not $62.
So 0.125% of 103,000 is $128.75. Half of that is $64.38. So it doesn’t exactly match up with the $68 I got, but at least I understand the concept now.
- Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:36 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I don’t understand my TIPS
- Replies: 22
- Views: 2090
I don’t understand my TIPS
I bought $100,000 of 30 year TIPS at auction this last February. They were 0% real. I was ok with that, anticipating $2,000 to $8,000 in interest payments each year. I had yet to receive any interest until yesterday…
With inflation running around 8%, and the bond paying semi-annually, I was expecting around a $4,000 interest payment. So imagine my confusion and sadness to see the interest payment be a paltry $62. What am I missing here? Did I really invest $100,000 in a highly volatile investment that paid me less than I would expect from a savings account? What happened here?
With inflation running around 8%, and the bond paying semi-annually, I was expecting around a $4,000 interest payment. So imagine my confusion and sadness to see the interest payment be a paltry $62. What am I missing here? Did I really invest $100,000 in a highly volatile investment that paid me less than I would expect from a savings account? What happened here?
- Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:37 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: ACATS Transfer thefts from Fidelity
- Replies: 546
- Views: 60487
Re: ACATS Transfer thefts from Fidelity
I moved $400,000 worth of taxable and IRA accounts from Schwab to Fidelity last week via ACATS transfer. My Schwab account is completely emptied without a peep from Schwab. $400,000. Vanished. Not a word.
Money transfer lockdown activated. Now I’m with Fidelity.
Money transfer lockdown activated. Now I’m with Fidelity.
- Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:07 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?
- Replies: 2483
- Views: 291490
Re: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?
Yes. You are offering a risk free bond that pays 2.303% interest over 8 years. This is better than any other risk free return currently offered by the treasury (after maxing out iBonds, of course).Hyperchicken wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:54 amWould you pay me $100,000 today to free up $1,100 per month for the next 100 months?
- Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:52 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
- Replies: 6651
- Views: 1203549
Re: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Can I buy my wife $200,000 in I bonds and she buy me $200,000 in I bonds? Then, we each gift the other $10,000 per year for the next 20 years, but that $400,000 grows the whole time, right?
- Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:02 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
- Replies: 6651
- Views: 1203549
Re: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Ok can I buy my wife $200,000 in I bonds and she buy me $200,000 in I bonds? Then, we each gift the other $10,000 per year for the next 20 years, but that $400,000 grows the whole time, right?
- Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:37 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: A $3.5M First Home Purchase?
- Replies: 124
- Views: 12689
Re: A $3.5M First Home Purchase?
Now, if all the $ numbers in these posts were a tenth of the size (i.e. $350K house, $80K compensation, $200K saved) we could imagine that the decision to buy wouldn't be so hard. However, the larger numbers we are dealing with make us think that the consideration might be a little different. The reason $80k and $800k are different is because any number of entry level jobs can get a dual income household to $80k, but almost no one makes $800k. So, you should think of the $800k as temporary and assume you will lose your high paying job at some point. Argue the worst case scenario to yourself. The $80k household’s worst case scenario is being unemployed for a period of time, but with a high subsequent likelihood of making the same (or more) ...
- Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:22 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Shorting more than 100%
- Replies: 62
- Views: 6727
Shorting more than 100%
If more than 100% of shares in a stock are shorted, does it become impossible for all the shorts to cover their positions?
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:09 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 2020 Backdoor Roth IRA
- Replies: 9
- Views: 995
2020 Backdoor Roth IRA
I didn’t make any IRA contributions in 2020 and I’m over the income limit to make a direct Roth contribution. Can I still do a backdoor Roth IRA contribution for 2020? How would this affect my taxes for 2020 and 2021? Thanks for the help.
- Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:30 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 7% return in the markets
- Replies: 120
- Views: 15139
Re: 7% return in the markets
You aren’t guaranteed a 7% return. It’s an average. Some are below average simply from bad timing (bad luck). Also, stocks aren’t at their most overvalued in history.
- Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:24 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 7% return in the markets
- Replies: 120
- Views: 15139
Re: 7% return in the markets
The short answer to your question is you can’t base your understanding by picking a fixed point in time and looking at returns from that point. You are better served doing a Monte Carlo analysis to understand the range of outcomes. The 7% figure includes a standard deviation.
- Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is this the hardest investing environment ever?
- Replies: 182
- Views: 15245
Re: Is this the hardest investing environment ever?
I refer to a December 2020 presentation by Ben Carlson (A Wealth of Common Sense) on the investing environment in 2020. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/12/the-hardest-market-environment-ever/ It is long but worthwhile. Of importance to many, specially retirees, is his discussion on bonds. What a mess! Would you care to comment? BTW I downloaded the presentation in PDF. It is public, no need of passwords, etc. Always passive, I see no problem in the current investing environment. I am diversified across stock, bond, CASH, Gold/Silver, and mortgage. I am prepared for a recession/market downturn lasting 5 or more years. I only need an average 5% nominal return to reach my goal. I have no problem. Why do you think there is a problem? Kla...
- Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:15 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Cord cutting 2020 - Youtube TV
- Replies: 151
- Views: 17446
Re: Cord cutting 2020 - Youtube TV
The only thing I don’t like is no 5.1 surround sound. Everything is in stereo sound
- Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:29 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Another House Can I Afford It Thread
- Replies: 73
- Views: 6259
Re: Another House Can I Afford It Thread
OP has won the game at a $2M net worth and can retire, right now, almost anywhere in the country. This sounds more exciting than buying a little house and grinding it out for 20 more years. For what? You aren’t getting the “rich” lifestyle by living in a VHCOL area. You could go to a medium sized city almost anywhere else with your $2M and live like a king for the rest of your life. You are already “work optional” and (perhaps) don’t even know it.
- Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:55 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Strategies for seeking 3-4% return at minimal risk?
- Replies: 45
- Views: 5810
Re: Strategies for seeking 3-4% return at minimal risk?
Pay off mortgage
- Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:18 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Pay down mortgage or invest
- Replies: 31
- Views: 7374
Re: Pay down mortgage or invest
Interesting. Is 60% loan to value (so, 40% equity) some kind of sweet spot for rates? I haven’t heard this before.
- Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:39 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Tax loss harvesting treasury bonds
- Replies: 9
- Views: 766
Re: Tax loss harvesting treasury bonds
Is another 30 year treasury bond, bought at a different interest rate, substantially identical?
- Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:00 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Tax loss harvesting treasury bonds
- Replies: 9
- Views: 766
Tax loss harvesting treasury bonds
I plan on eventually going to long term treasuries as my bond holding, but I wanted to buy individual 30 year treasuries. Can you tax loss harvest an individual treasury bond? For instance, if I sell a 30 year treasury bond that has lost value and buy another 30 year treasury bond?
- Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:11 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bond funds in taxable: How much can tax loss harvesting mitigate the risk of increases in interest rates?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 4179
Re: Bond funds in taxable: How much can tax loss harvesting mitigate the risk of increases in interest rates?
Ok quick related question about this. I plan on eventually going to long term treasuries as my bond holding, but I wanted to buy individual 30 year treasuries. Can you tax loss harvest an individual treasury bond? For instance, if I sell a 30 year treasury bond that has lost value and buy another 30 year treasury bond?
- Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:22 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Another one on the "bond Market" is dead
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1073
Re: Another one on the "bond Market" is dead
The only relevant risk is running out of money. How you design your portfolio to mitigate that risk is up to you. The caveat here is that if you choose to include bonds, you must account for their low expected return with a larger portfolio (i.e., lower withdrawal rate).
- Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:29 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: form 8606 blues
- Replies: 64
- Views: 4628
Re: form 8606 blues
Could you explain this? Are there different accounts for non-deductible and deductible IRAs?neurosphere wrote: ↑Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:17 pm I’ll pile on and give this headscratcher which I just learned about yesterday.
Taxpayer made an IRA contribution with subsequent roth conversion. Told the CPA he did a "backdoor Roth" and provided 1099s.
CPA said you are over the limit for making a Roth or a Traditional IRA and that they were only eligible to contribute to a "non-deductible" IRA as the first step in the backdoor Roth process. He made husband and wife each undo the contribution/conversion prior to filing taxes, and they came to me asking "now how do we contribute to a non-deductible IRA"?
- Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:06 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
- Replies: 259
- Views: 36229
Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Technically speaking, a negative interest rate would cause cash to lose nominal value.White Coat Investor wrote: ↑Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:25 pmI'm not sure you know what nominal means. I guarantee cash will not lose nominal value, as that is the very definition of cash.superinvestor wrote: ↑Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:31 am Futures market is pricing in negative rates, and this guy thinks cash will not lose nominal value?
- Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:42 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 3565
Re: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?
401k/Roth IRA/HSA 100% VT
Taxable VTI and VXUS at world market cap
Taxable VTI and VXUS at world market cap