Search found 3034 matches

by stlutz
Sun May 22, 2016 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Perils of Historical Asset Returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1783

Re: The Perils of Historical Asset Returns

Couple of thoughts: --I think population growth was the result of economic growth, not the cause. If you are culturally programmed to have 4 children because 2 will likely die at a very young age, but then you reduce infant mortality, you end up with a bunch of population growth. --It's not clear to...
by stlutz
Sun May 22, 2016 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SLYV large distributions [SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value]
Replies: 8
Views: 639

Re: SLYV large distributions [SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value]

I was considering SLYV as well but didn't go that direction for the same reason. I use VBR and just pay a commission.
by stlutz
Sun May 22, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Local TV channels - via streaming?
Replies: 29
Views: 1693

Re: Local TV channels - via streaming?

How do you get internet? I've known a few people who were going to "cut the cord" but then found out that the most basic of basic cable packages only adds a few bucks over internet-only (talking of Comcast).
by stlutz
Fri May 20, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting w/ Covered Non-Covered Shaes
Replies: 13
Views: 581

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting w/ Covered Non-Covered Shaes

I had the same situation with my VG Emerging markets holding back at the beginning of the year. I opted to sell it all even though that might not have been completely optimal. It's nice to just have one new holding with everything in covered shares.
by stlutz
Fri May 20, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do term premiums drive yields?
Replies: 5
Views: 493

Re: Do term premiums drive yields?

Thanks for the link. I've downloaded the paper and look forward to reading it. Sounds like it challenges some conventional wisdom...
by stlutz
Tue May 17, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Never-ending Taxable Bond Dilemma
Replies: 24
Views: 2821

Re: Never-ending Taxable Bond Dilemma

Here is a good look at what happened to the duration of LT-TE back in 2013 when rates went up quite a bit:

http://thefinancebuff.com/vanguard-long ... nds-2.html
by stlutz
Mon May 16, 2016 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's bond desk shows no 7 nor 10 year brokered CDs
Replies: 10
Views: 1084

Re: Vanguard's bond desk shows no 7 nor 10 year brokered CDs

Still no new issues on 7-10year CDs.


There are now (from Goldman & Discover).
by stlutz
Sat May 14, 2016 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to make orders - limit, market, and so on
Replies: 2
Views: 280

Re: How to make orders - limit, market, and so on

Suppose the bid is $50.00 and the ask is $50.03. I'll place a limit order for something like $50.06 just to protect myself from something unusual happening (which never has for me). Assuming I am a) not transacting in gigantic dollar amounts, and b) using at least reasonably liquid ETFs, I don't spe...
by stlutz
Sat May 14, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Never-ending Taxable Bond Dilemma
Replies: 24
Views: 2821

Re: Never-ending Taxable Bond Dilemma

it seems like the After Tax SEC Yield is higher than the Intermediate Muni (1.55% vs 1.41%) but the distribution yield is much lower (1.85% vs 2.8%). The Distribution Yield of the Intermediate Muni is almost twice it's SEC Yield while the difference isn't that large for Total Bond. What is the reas...
by stlutz
Sat May 07, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: METRO Shutdown Impact on Bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 782

Re: METRO Shutdown Impact on Bonds?

Yep, the same. Are you sure? As far as I can tell the toll road is run by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority while the Metro is run by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. But, ultimately a better way to confirm would be to look the issue up on EMMA (http://emma.msrb.org)...
by stlutz
Sat May 07, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Rick Ferri? [Portfolio Solutions management and fee structure]
Replies: 95
Views: 15769

Re: Where is Rick Ferri?

Well, I'm not a client, but my written direction to be followed in the event of my untimely demise was to park the investments with Rick Ferri at PS, due to both their Boglehead philosophy and the low ER's. PS now lists an aum fee range of 0.37% to 1.5%, so I need to change my written direction. Is...
by stlutz
Sat May 07, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: METRO Shutdown Impact on Bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 782

Re: METRO Shutdown Impact on Bonds?

None. Admittedly I haven't done any research but I'm not seeing any connection between the Metro and the Dulles Toll Road(?).
by stlutz
Fri May 06, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: buying/selling bonds at Schwab
Replies: 1
Views: 172

Re: buying/selling bonds at Schwab

Several years ago I bought a few brokered CDs at Schwab on the secondary market. Orders were "Fill or Kill" (i.e. you place an order at the indicated price--if that is no longer available the order is cancelled). Unlike Fidelity, they incorporate the commission ($1 per bond, $10 min) into ...
by stlutz
Mon May 02, 2016 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Expense Ratio Decreases
Replies: 24
Views: 2471

Re: Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Expense Ratio Decreases

I noticed today that in response to VG dropping the ER on the Smallcap Index fund to .08%, Schwab had dropped the ER on their small-cap ETF (SCHA) to .07%.
by stlutz
Sun May 01, 2016 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Minimum AUM for an ETF?
Replies: 8
Views: 543

Re: Minimum AUM for an ETF?

Which ETFs are you specifically concerned about?

I think the answer is usually, "it depends".

If it's a mainstream asset class from an established provider with a low fee, I usually figure it will grow over time.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 30, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I invest in VWIUX today, will I have a capital loss from the premium bonds maturing?
Replies: 7
Views: 635

Re: If I invest in VWIUX today, will I have a capital loss from the premium bonds maturing?

oh ok. so I wont have a 5-10% capital loss, that's good. But unless rates go up sometime in the next decade, my annual fund income will fall in like 10 years from the current 2.85% to the much lower SEC yield right? Actually, no. Distributions are based on the yield-to-maturity of the bonds at the ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 30, 2016 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I invest in VWIUX today, will I have a capital loss from the premium bonds maturing?
Replies: 7
Views: 635

Re: If I invest in VWIUX today, will I have a capital loss from the premium bonds maturing?

Not so much anymore. Interest rates have been low for a long time now, so the fund doesn't own a lot of bonds that it purchased with 6 or 7% yields any longer.

In short, what you are asking about has already happened.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions
Replies: 32
Views: 2178

Re: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions

I think the popularity of traditional cap-weighted index funds will actually shrink going forward. The big change in asset management is the move from human to artificial intelligence. Most things that humans are doing in finance can be done by a computer given the right data inputs. The cost of hav...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions
Replies: 32
Views: 2178

Re: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions

There is an argument that index funds (or at least behemoth index fund managers like Vanguard and Blackrock) should be illegal under anti-trust law. In a free-market economy, we want companies to aggressively compete against each other. The argument is that when everybody owns everyone, there is no ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 30, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2231

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

One additional note for thinking about markets now and going forward. One way you can look at this question is to look at the characteristics of low-volatility equity ETFs like USMV or SPLV. On average, over time, low-volatility stocks have tended toward the value size of the fence--not always, but ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 30, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2231

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

In this paper: https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/06davis_fama_french_2000_29-97.pdf, Fama/French/Davis say that they collected their additional historical data beyond what was available in Compustat from Moody's Industrial Manuals. CRSP has the best database of historica...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2231

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

Yes, I think there's an insoluble problem with trying to decide what historical span of years should "count." Long before the time period gets long enough for the statistical sampling to settle down, you are talking about a span of years in which you can't possibly believe you are looking...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 144
Views: 10291

Re: Is Vanguard phone support always this bad?

The root of the problem with VG seems to be IT. That creates a lot of problems which overwhelms their support departments.
by stlutz
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Bond Ladder (or UMA) vs. Muni Bond Funds
Replies: 2
Views: 275

Re: Muni Bond Ladder (or UMA) vs. Muni Bond Funds

Suppose your tax situation, tax laws, or both change. Or for some other reason you no longer want to own muni bonds. Or you want to move to a different manager. Which is easier to extract yourself from?

With individual muni bonds, the buying is easy; the selling--not so much.
by stlutz
Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2231

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

Isn't that just a feature of 1972-present (particularly, the tech bubble exacerbating realized growth volatility)? Value took a beating when the markets crashed around the Great Depression, for what it's worth. Over a longer period of time, value was more volatile on average. No, the problem is rea...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would investing in just high yield ETFs/ bonds do the trick?
Replies: 9
Views: 786

Re: Would investing in just high yield ETFs/ bonds do the trick?

High yield bonds are high yield for a reason--they default more frequently than investment-grade bonds do. For the purposes of illustration, let's assume that the level of interest rates never changes over the next 20 years. You get a 6% coupon from your high yield bonds and you lose 3% per year to ...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2231

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

This a a great resource for comparing various assets historical returns and volatility: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation With the data, you tend to see two factors somewhat at war with each other: 1) The more concentrated your portfolio is, the more volatile it get...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VSUX versus IEFA [Vanguard Total Int'l vs. iShares MSCI EAFE]
Replies: 6
Views: 490

Re: VSUX versus IEFA

Total International: VXUS (Vanguard); IXUS (iShares)
EAFE countries: VEA (Vanguard); IEFA (iShares)

There are no significant advantages/disadvantages between the two options with either pair.
by stlutz
Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not ETFs?
Replies: 57
Views: 4019

Re: Why not ETFs?

Leaving my 401K out of it for the moment, I hold both funds and ETFs. I wish I only held ETFs as I would prefer not to hold my account at Vanguard, which I must do with Admiral class shares. I know I could convert the mutual funds to ETFs, but I don't trust VG to do that without messing up the cost ...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 27, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FIBAX Fidelity Intermediate Treasury index fund - State tax exempt?
Replies: 6
Views: 425

Re: FIBAX Fidelity Intermediate Treasury index fund - State tax exempt?

See this page for the document where Fidelity lists the percentage of income from US government sources which would be exempt from state tax:
l
https://www.fidelity.com/taxes/fidelity ... nformation
by stlutz
Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth on why bond funds are better than individual bonds
Replies: 63
Views: 5378

Re: Allan Roth on why bond funds are better than individual bonds

My thoughts as someone who owns bond funds, bond ETFs, and individual bonds (Treasuries and brokered CDs): --The funds and ETFs that are available nowadays are so cheap that cost is simply not a legitimate argument in favor of individual bonds. A difference of a fraction of a year in duration betwee...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One question about medical insurance in-network service
Replies: 10
Views: 741

Re: One question about medical insurance in-network service

Was it your expectation that the service would covered? If so, I would contact the insurer to find out what information is needed to get the claim covered. Then contact your doctor to get the needed information/paperwork sent to the insurer.
by stlutz
Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do bond funds REALLY work?
Replies: 16
Views: 1954

Re: How do bond funds REALLY work?

Can there be a scenario where municipal bonds actually go UP when interest rates go up because people way undervalued them? Example, people think that the government is going to raise interest rates by say 5%, so they start dumping their bonds, the price drops, but then the government only raises r...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)
Replies: 108
Views: 12297

Re: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)

I'm getting a few advice of "do a good job and you'll be fine" - I'm afraid that's extremely naive. I think it's more that in your current situation, anything you do besides doing a good job doesn't do you any good. This board is full of if not dominated by people who have been successful...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)
Replies: 108
Views: 12297

Re: I Hate My Job: Politics at Work (Advice Needed)

Any job is a combination of good and bad. Ask your self what are the things you most care about and focus on those. This could be: Money recognition work/life balance liking the things you work on liking the people you work with security making the world a better place ... No job provides all or eve...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laminate Flooring Installers - finding local contractors
Replies: 14
Views: 903

Re: Laminate Flooring Installers - finding local contractors

I had installation done through a local flooring company a couple of years back and paid $2.25 as the "base rate", but the actual bottom line cost was higher. I'd focus on that. Things like removal of old carpet/flooring, moving furniture, removal/re-installation of baseboards cost extra. ...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 24, 2016 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bond fund/etf ?
Replies: 15
Views: 2735

Re: Municipal bond fund/etf ?

That is correct.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard's "Active" TIPS fund necessary?
Replies: 24
Views: 1055

Re: Is Vanguard's "Active" TIPS fund necessary?

Nope.

The VG fund has tracked its benchmark very closely over the years, making it a "closet" index fund.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?
Replies: 43
Views: 4256

Re: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?

Investors might well reevaluate their desire to hold 50% stocks in light of the new bond issuance (as well as other factors). The idea that stock values would automatically go up with a new bond issue (by definition) is not very mainstream. If nothing else, look how the overall world portfolio stoc...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did TIPS Really work?
Replies: 41
Views: 3651

Re: Did TIPS Really work?

Just to bring a number of the thoughts together. It has been noted that TIPS were poor performers in 2014 and 2015. So let's come back to that later. If I use portfolio visualizer and compare returns from 1998 to 2013 on TIPS vs 92% intermediate treasuries and 8% long treasuries, I get the following...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 23, 2016 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did TIPS Really work?
Replies: 41
Views: 3651

Re: Did TIPS Really work?

I market time TIPS. When abuss368 starts a thread every other week talking about how bad TIPS are, I buy. When he goes silent on them, I sell. I got my last buy signal last fall and have done quite well with them... (In reality, I added some TIPS late last year when the "expected inflation"...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 23, 2016 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?
Replies: 43
Views: 4256

Re: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?

Think about it more in terms of the constitution of financial markets. There are three factors that play together 1) In a growing economy, debt increases over time. 2) Investors generally like to hold a balance of stocks and bonds. 3) Business owners do not like to issue new equity as it means they ...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Coffeehouse Portfolio Not Preferred by BHs?
Replies: 54
Views: 5865

Re: Is Coffeehouse Portfolio Not Preferred by BHs?

I think there are several reasons it doesn't get a ton of attention: a) It's a great portfolio so it's hard to bash on it. Hence, fewer threads. :D b) Schultheis himself actually focuses more on the fundamentals of investing than the exact allocation. So, when he writes and speaks he tends to focus ...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard versus David Swenson
Replies: 28
Views: 3749

Re: Vanguard versus David Swenson

What the returns of REITs vs. the overall market or Treasuries vs. munis will be is always a matter of odds. Doing things like controlling costs or minimizing taxes are guarantees. Focus on what you can control (risk, costs, taxes) first and worry about the things you can't control (which equities w...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 18, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Consumer Cellular- a tale
Replies: 14
Views: 2040

Re: Consumer Cellular- a tale

Unlike pretty much every other MVNO, CC is post-paid. Hence the taxes and credit check (which AT&T and Verizon do if you sign up for post-paid with them).
by stlutz
Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is not to like about iShares Core Total USD Bond Market?
Replies: 19
Views: 1980

Re: What is not to like about iShares Core Total USD Bond Market?

Because both advocates of investing in "high-yield," speculative, low-credit-quality, "junk" bonds and skeptics agree that it is a distinct asset class. It is not the same kind of investment as investment-grade bonds, and there's no fundamental reason to mix them together. It mi...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 16, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is not to like about iShares Core Total USD Bond Market?
Replies: 19
Views: 1980

Re: What is not to like about iShares Core Total USD Bond Market?

A "normal" total bond fund (e.g. AGG/BND) will take all of the losses when an issue is downgraded to junk and participate in the none of the gains when it gets upgraded. This fund of course still takes the losses from downgrades but it does get the gains when an issue is upgraded. On the o...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing legends change their bond portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 4469

Re: Investing legends change their bond portfolio

For the sake of discussion, let me propose a couple of ways of thinking about it that are different from the trend of this and most threads on this matter: 1) I think it's been said before that one should look at their entire portfolio and not pieces in isolation. What someone can do if they increas...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Fund Dynamics?
Replies: 9
Views: 1074

Re: Small-Cap Value Fund Dynamics?

EDIT: So the S&P 600 Value Index, which IJS tracks, re-balances once per year...but for a value strategy is that too often, or in other words, can that hurt total returns by not letting some of the deeper value plays stay at higher weightings just after 1 year of positive growth? I know value s...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Forgot to Convert My Backdoor Roth - Now What?
Replies: 13
Views: 1530

Re: I Forgot to Convert My Backdoor Roth - Now What?

How good is your new 401K in terms of the investment options? If it's a really good 401K, it could be worth the effort. Over 30 years, that $20K would grow to $150K at 7%/yr. 25% tax on $130,000 gain is a fair amount of change and worth giving some consideration to. But, that's still less that the i...

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