Search found 3657 matches

by stlutz
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I factor my pension into my AA in retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 903

Re: How should I factor my pension into my AA in retirement

I agree with Silk as well. The income you need to generate from your portfolio is now lower. What this means in practical terms is that the range of AA options is now wider. You could go more conservative because you need to take less risk. You could go more aggressive because you can afford to take...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Incorporate Bonds into asset allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 491

Re: How to Incorporate Bonds into asset allocation

1) TIPS are fine for all portfolios. They are particularly suitable if inflation is a significant risk for you. For working people with few assets, the assumption is that wages will keep pace with inflation so you don't have to worry about this as much with your fixed income investments. On the othe...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investors Capturing Returns of All U.S. Equities?
Replies: 19
Views: 1094

Re: Investors Capturing Returns of All U.S. Equities?

It's been noted in many place that there is a surplus of capital out there. Has been for quite a while. That funded the sub-prime mortgage boom in the 2000s. That is funding the development of more "alternative" investments. And it also means that it's easier to get funding from private so...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Portfolio Size Influence Stock/Bond Allocation?
Replies: 28
Views: 2434

Re: Does Portfolio Size Influence Stock/Bond Allocation?

That said, I think a 65/35 portfolio could also be used in withdrawal. There is much less at stake in the middle range of AAs, and certainly much less predictability about what would be optimal, than is sometimes suggested. +1. I'd have a hard time saying that 65/35 is that much different than 50/5...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?
Replies: 50
Views: 3568

Re: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?

To a Larry-type factor investor, that is equivalent to asking what if the Beta premium over the course of retirement is zero or negative. For all those people only exposed to Beta, that could be a serious problem as that means the return on their stocks would be zero or negative. But if you are exp...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 23, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?
Replies: 50
Views: 3568

Re: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?

My ultimate purpose in tilting is reducing beta exposure in order to shorten the left tail, so that I can sleep well. Suppose the small/value premium over the course of your retirement is zero or negative. What does that do to your plan? I think it's good to keep in mind that for somebody in what I...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 23, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

Hopefully backpacker is still following the thread, but I actually wanted to go back and partially argue against something in your original post. Stocks clearly pass the test. It’s easy to think of investors who you would advice to underweight stocks even though you yourself overweight stocks. Older...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 23, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: The next generation of Boglehead authors
Replies: 40
Views: 2714

Re: The next generation of Boglehead authors

One thing to keep in mind is that Boglehead approaches to investing are now in many ways the default. It is now much more common for a lower-cost diversified target retirement fund to be the default option in 401K plans. And you just have to look at where the money is going (Vanguard, low cost ETFs)...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 23, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: foreign tax credit for international stocks
Replies: 12
Views: 907

Re: foreign tax credit for international stocks

So are you saying that holding international stocks in taxable is not recommended? Basically is doesn't matter one way or the other. It has a higher dividend which makes it a better candidate for tax advantaged but the FTC makes in a better candidate for taxable. No obvious way to go on this one.
by stlutz
Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?
Replies: 50
Views: 3568

Re: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?

Just to restate the question, what you're wanting to do is not to own 3% each of US, developed, and emerging (in which case you'd do what Larry suggests). Instead, you're looking to own 3% of the total world market cap. If there happened to be no emerging markets smallcap companies, you don't want t...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4154

Re: Small cap fund index question

If you define "value" based on the price/sales ratio, SHLD is most definitely a value stock. Using most any other common measure for the denominator you'd end up tossing it out altogether (which the indexes don't do and F/F does) or you'd call it "growth" since the sorts are gene...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding iShares initial investment index differences
Replies: 12
Views: 590

Re: Understanding iShares initial investment index differences

The interesting thing is that people here as they acquire more assets generally (not always) seem to move in the direction of simpler portfolios than more complex.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Analysis Paralysis - Extended Market
Replies: 7
Views: 993

Re: Analysis Paralysis - Extended Market

Yeah, you're a little "overweight" extended market vs. market weight. So what? Your portfolio is very reasonable for your situation in my opinion. When in doubt, I always vote to do nothing.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rght Bond fund/s when interest rates rise?
Replies: 31
Views: 1945

Re: Rght Bond fund/s when interest rates rise?

Lately rates have been doing down. Which is why timing the bond market is hard. I would focus first on strategy--what types of bonds/fixed income do I want to own in general based on their properties--as opposed to tactics--trying to outguess what the bond market will do over the next year or two. T...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for Dividend Loving Widow
Replies: 13
Views: 1866

Re: Help for Dividend Loving Widow

Below is a crude outline of my plan and I ask for additional suggestions / elaborations I think your plan is overly ambitious. I would just focus on making sure that whatever they advise is reasonably appropriate. I work in finance and my folks have not, do not, and will not take investment advice ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

Nedsaid: 2008-2009 might be an exception to this. Value got hit pretty hard then. Could you do some checking? PV has monthly returns, so I calculated from 10/31/2007 through 2/28/2009. Value was -54% and Growth was -47%. Interesting that the entire difference actually happened in January & Feb....
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4154

Re: Small cap fund index question

FWIW, on the Russell side Sears is a part of both the growth and the value indices.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A few questions about International... VXUS, VEA, VWO... low returns
Replies: 24
Views: 1550

Re: A few questions about International... VXUS, VEA, VWO... low returns

Emerging performs better over time One things to always watch out for is verb tenses. What you should say is that "emerging has performed better over time." I say that not to be pedantic, but to point out that variations in performance generally result from events that could not have been...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

To shift gears--since we of course can't do this thread without talking about value, let's consider large value vs. large growth since that invites less ideological fervor here. If I run a 45 year backtest on portfolio visualizer of large value vs. large growth, these are the results I get: LV: retu...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

Ah, right. You could have a system where all the participants are acting rationally but in which the system as a whole is somewhat irrational. Investors rationally trust their managers and the managers rationally cultivate that trust while actually pursuing their own interests, which diverge from t...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did anything surprise you in your 2016 taxes?
Replies: 82
Views: 6463

Re: Did anything surprise you in your 2016 taxes?

This was the first year I had to file a form 1116. What suprised me was the degree to which you have to put a whole bunch of numbers on the form that had no impact on the credit.

Seems like they need to bump up the threshold at which you need to file the form.
by stlutz
Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4154

Re: Small cap fund index question

First, I don't think I like your not-fully-stated assumption--that small companies must grow faster because they're small. The question isn't whether an individual small company can grow faster than, say, Exxon Mobil. Of course it can. The question is whether all of the small cap companies in aggre...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 139
Views: 12610

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

That's been my experience trading the less liquid IXUS on the buy side. Even when I've put a limit above the indicated ask, the actual execution has been between the bid and the ask.
by stlutz
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Target Index Funds Investor Shares drop (.08%)
Replies: 21
Views: 1724

Re: Schwab Target Index Funds Investor Shares drop (.08%)

I prefer to have 100% of my investments in productive instruments. As an example, Schwab's Target 2030 fund has 4.15% more in cash than Vanguard (Morningstar). I could put that in Vanguard Ultra-short term bond and earn 1.35% with little interest rate risk (bonds are held to maturity). That is a co...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

You can see why investors with relative risk aversion would tend to prefer the index to low volatility stocks. Is there also an explanations of why some investors would favor high volatility stocks? If we are to think of this as a rational response to risk, we will need to explain how a large group...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."
Replies: 332
Views: 33916

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

One other lesson is that spending 10-15 hours per week on any internet forum is probably not healthy in any number of ways.
by stlutz
Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer to Fidelity for Sign on Bonus?
Replies: 22
Views: 1876

Re: Transfer to Fidelity for Sign on Bonus?

You might be interested in this rather long thread on the subject: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=196884 For some folks it's very much worth it. Others don't see the point. If you have enough to get a $2500 bonus, well then your portfolio value changes by more than that on a very l...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions for Bridgeway Capital research team
Replies: 12
Views: 980

Re: Questions for Bridgeway Capital research team

Much more open-ended than the other suggestions, but I'm always curious in what ways such people see that the market is changing that is not transient. In what non-obvious ways is the present and future simply not like the past? Or are there any?
by stlutz
Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Munis and effect of pension funds on them and risks for portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 1171

Re: Munis and effect of pension funds on them and risks for portfolio

The standard and most likely appropriate approach in your case is to keep the bonds that mature in the relative near future and sell the one that mature in the distant future. "Near" and "distant" are somewhat arbitrary terms. For example, you may just keep everything that mature...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

Here is my proposed test: An asset X can be expected to have a real risk premium only if you can clearly identity a reasonably broad class of investors who you would advise, given their life circumstances, to underweight X. This isn't so much a proposal as is it definitional. Without this, you migh...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: H&R Block online - How to enter Vanguard Total Bond treasury interest?
Replies: 5
Views: 614

Re: H&R Block online - How to enter Vanguard Total Bond treasury interest?

I used the standalone version this year. But essentially I had to force it to yield the correct result. That is, I made a little spreadsheet to calculate how much government interest I actually had and then filled in the fields in HRB with the values that it needed to produce the right answer on my ...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which small-cap value index is better?
Replies: 7
Views: 984

Re: Which small-cap value index is better?

I would question whether you want to TLH this position at all: --the other alternatives are notably less tax efficient --the return variations (positive or negative) from changing indexes will overwhelm the impact of the TLH. --how much does IJS have to go down from here to even have the opportunity...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1221

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Buffer zones are not a CRSP-only thing. MSCI and S&P both do it. Not sure about Russell.

I guess for the SV tilters on this board, it ensures that your fund does not have a negative momentum load which is generally considered a good thing.
by stlutz
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to be a good parent to an introverted kid
Replies: 29
Views: 2488

Re: How to be a good parent to an introverted kid

Keep in mind that it's only in America that we think something must be wrong with a kid if he/she is more of an introvert. It sounds like he has friends and gets along just find with others. And I don't see how he will have problems making friends when he is older if he already gets along well with ...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity equivalent of Vanguard small value index fund
Replies: 9
Views: 690

Re: Fidelity equivalent of Vanguard small value index fund

There isn't one.

Can you use ETFs or are you restricted to mutual funds?
by stlutz
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1597

Re: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds

Back in mid-March the 10 year Treasury yielding 2.62%. Now it yields 2.26%.

Is this an environment of rising rates or falling rates?
by stlutz
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2617

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

This is a case where there is a tendency to backtest the wrong things. Roll back the clock a fair number of years here and we had a fair number of threads telling us how the data demonstrates that commodities will give your portfolio higher returns and less risk. While you are free to ignore this da...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Donor advised fund - Fidelity or Schwab?
Replies: 8
Views: 618

Re: Donor advised fund - Fidelity or Schwab?

Very happy with Schwab here. Donating VG mutual fund shares has not posed any issues. No "extra" accounts are needed (note that I have bank and brokerage accounts at Schwab). The donation goes directly from VG to Schwab Charitable with no intermediate stops.
by stlutz
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is all the money flowing into index funds bad?
Replies: 21
Views: 2992

Re: Is all the money flowing into index funds bad?

This is an article well worth reading: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/05/passive/ What he shows is that more people indexing probably makes markets more efficient, not less. What happens when bozos like me index is that I leave the "price setting" to people who really know thei...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great commodities debate
Replies: 38
Views: 6389

Re: The great commodities debate

despite minimal interest rates and trillions of dollars of cash injections into the system, inflation (except for health care and educational costs, which have their own drivers) has been stable and low. That's because there was in fact not trillions of dollars of cash injections into the system. T...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 6321

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

The supply of gold is relatively fixed. Suppose investors collectively decide that they want to hold 5% of their portfolios in gold. Over time, other investments (i.e. stocks/bond) appreciate 100%. If investors want to continue holding 5% in gold, then the price of gold *must* increase by 100%. On t...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6566

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

Is there evidence to say that Bogle has missed the research on diversifying across factors? Or is Swedroe relying on specific data that may not continue in the future? Bogle hasn't missed the research and Swedroe is relying on data that may not continue in the future. Note that this does not mean t...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative assumption on real rate of return?
Replies: 12
Views: 1049

Re: Conservative assumption on real rate of return?

Using any one number is problematic because you don't know what the actual number will be. I would run several different scenarios (both positive and negative) and then ask yourself what you would do if that happened. If returns are poor early in retirement, what you do? If returns are way above ave...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Humor] I attended an REIT picking seminar today
Replies: 4
Views: 901

Re: [Humor] I attended an REIT picking seminar today

I can't remember any individual investor or fund salesman saying their returns under-performed the market.


I for one will say that when I was picking the "best" stocks I underperformed the market in a pretty dramatic fashion. :sharebeer
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Story so far. Totally confused! Vanguard, Charles Schwab, Merrill Edge. Managing own portfolio... or NOT?
Replies: 86
Views: 6030

Re: My Story so far. Totally confused! Vanguard, Charles Schwab, Merrill Edge. Managing own portfolio... or NOT?

Debt: Mortgage $42k, no other debt Tax Filing Status: Single State of Residence: NY Age: 44 Desired Asset allocation: 75/25 Desired International allocation: 15% of stocks One suggestion: This might be a good opportunity to just pay the mortgage off. There is always debate about whether that is the...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk
Replies: 45
Views: 4884

Re: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk

I do want to interrupt the love-in here just a bit to add a few notes: One thing Larry and the "Swedroeheads" should keep in mind is that they are in many ways swimming against the tide of the forum. In general Bogleheads are generally looking for the lowest-cost portfolios, no more than 3...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation Decisions: LENDX, SRRIX and QSPIX
Replies: 23
Views: 1862

Re: Allocation Decisions: LENDX, SRRIX and QSPIX

That's an excellent point. I have some direct experience with this sort of thing. I used to have a small portion of my overall portfolio in the Permanent Portfolio. I remember reading an article by William Bernstein in which he argued that (a) the PP was a fine portfolio and (b) most investors woul...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk
Replies: 45
Views: 4884

Re: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk

One other note. One of the great things about this forum is that we do have noted authors like Larry, Rick Ferri, William Bernstein, and Taylor Larimore who post here. Even better is that we freely challenge their ideas. See for example this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk
Replies: 45
Views: 4884

Re: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk

I have not seen a good treatment of balancing a low need to take risk with a high ability to take risk. What do you do if you are investing for a very long horizon- decades, on behalf of children, grandchildren or later generations? If you figure you will not need the money for a long time, even th...

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