Search found 3497 matches

by stlutz
Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru + Mazda
Replies: 26
Views: 2067

Re: Subaru + Mazda

Here the definitive thread on how to actually go about buying whichever vehicle you choose:

viewtopic.php?t=124638
by stlutz
Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Basic question on Hybrid cars
Replies: 47
Views: 2292

Re: Basic question on Hybrid cars

The big difference between something designed as a hybrid from the ground up vs. a hybrid version of another car is space utilization. Only the necessary space is used for the engine. The traction battery is located in a spot that doesn't take away cargo space. In terms of exterior dimensions, the P...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns
Replies: 30
Views: 1613

Re: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns

Thanks for the reply Robert. That's very helpful and informative. :sharebeer
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 99
Views: 5611

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

Try this: Based on reading your posts I would say you mostly believe markets are efficient. If you believe that you should then believe that all investments should have similar Sharpe Ratios. Now given that beta is much more volatile than T bills we expect higher returns. And while you might say yo...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 99
Views: 5611

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

Of course your extreme examples aren't more diversified (and Texas isn't a factor that would logically have a premium and neither is oil, so the whole analogy falls apart right from the start) Oil is absolutely a risk factor. If the price of oil ends 2017 at $200, that will be the dominant factor d...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for Low Duration Bond Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1149

Re: Suggestions for Low Duration Bond Fund

do you intend to switch to longer duration holdings when rates go up?


Yes, an interim allocation


As a heads up, the 10-year Treasury peaked back in mid-December and intermediate-to-longer term rates have since been going down.
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 99
Views: 5611

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

Larry-- Suppose my portfolio was composed of 20 small Texas oil companies. Like BOSVX, I'd have a lot of exposure to the market factor, the small factor, and the value factor. Unlike BOSVX, I'd also have a lot of exposure to the oil factor, the Texas factor, and probably several other factors if I t...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is a 401k loan always terrible?
Replies: 51
Views: 3089

Re: is a 401k loan always terrible?

Is a $75K renovation truly going to be done when the second child arrives? How far are you into the process of selecting a contractor, deciding what you want etc.?
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doing email with a Chromebook
Replies: 16
Views: 1210

Re: Doing email with a Chromebook

Get one of the Chromebooks that will allow you to install Android apps (see list here: https://sites.google.com/a/chromium.org ... droid-apps).

Then install K-9 Mail and you can download your e-mail to your local machine.
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 99
Views: 5611

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

How is this better than holding the market portfolio of risky assets plus a riskfree asset? That's an incredibly simple strategy, and if you're about average, that's what you should hold anyway, getting average exposures to all factors at very low cost. I think Larry often creates a lot of confusio...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns
Replies: 30
Views: 1613

Re: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns

...My biggest concern is momentum has lower capacity than say value and size Robert--I'm not clear what you mean here. If I look at the top 5 holdings of MTUM, they are Facebook, Amazon, Procter & Gamble, Microsoft, and Johnson & Johnson. Wouldn't those stocks have plenty of capacity? Are y...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns
Replies: 30
Views: 1613

Re: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns

wonder if any fund/ETF follows a construction similar to this. Actually, every fund/ETF/index construction is based on using the current price divided by the latest available book value/EPS etc. metric. The problem F/F had when they did their original research is that their database had look-ahead ...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Out of town mechanic botched fix
Replies: 19
Views: 1562

Re: Out of town mechanic botched fix

Why wouldn't the first step be to talk to the mechanic? Although I'm sure he would want to hear a diagnosis from another mechanic as opposed to from you. You need to fix the problem regardless. After that, first step is to try to get the other mechanic to pay for most of it, talking with credit card...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3286

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

I tilt to small and value, but ignore momentum--for one thing my portfolio is mostly in taxable or the TSP, and MOM is inherently a not very tax-efficient strategy due to the turnover in which assets have positive momentum. But I don't see why it can't be successfully implemented in the real world,...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not put it all in TIPS?
Replies: 87
Views: 4883

Re: Why not put it all in TIPS?

How can you safely withdrawal 3% when the yield is less than that? No equities? Suppose inflation is 0%. If I withdraw 3% per year, that will last me 33 1/3 years (100/3). Of course there is inflation, so I do need to generate enough positive return to match inflation. TIPS, CDs, and Total Bond are...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not put it all in TIPS?
Replies: 87
Views: 4883

Re: Why not put it all in TIPS?

I think getting too hung up on TIPS (whether pro or con) can lead astray in this case. Bottom line is that if you're 65 and looking at a withdrawal rate south of 3%, you can go 100% *fixed income* and be just fine. That may be total bond, TIPS, CDs, or some combination of all 3--it really doesn't ma...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liquidity risk/funding risk and are they rewarded
Replies: 13
Views: 771

Re: Liquidity risk/funding risk and are they rewarded

Hedge funds tend to create their own liquidity risk through the use of leverage. The liquidity crisis in TIPS in 2008 didn't arise from something innate to the TIPS market--it resulted from the unwinding of other leveraged positions. I think the problem with liquidity risk itself is that there reall...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3286

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

A question I haven't seen discussed much is one which I will phrase this way: can a knowledgeable expert, not knowing anything about the price of the stock, study the annual report of a company, look at the balance sheet, visit the headquarters and the factories, and determine which factors the com...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund In T-Bills?
Replies: 4
Views: 302

Re: Emergency Fund In T-Bills?

T-BIlls are super-liquid and super-safe. An Ally savings account is super-liquid and super-safe and has a higher yield.

I would use the savings account unless my EF was > $250K.
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard vs. Fidelity [Customer Service Reputation]
Replies: 59
Views: 3706

Re: Vanguard vs. Fidelity

In general, Vanguard is the best asset manager out there. Not in 100% of the cases but in general. In general, I think Fidelity is a better asset custodian in terms of providing services to people. You can own a bunch of Vanguard ETFs at Fidelity. There are other alternatives from iShares that are o...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 5458

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

Holding a bond fund in a rising rate environment is a lot different than holding bonds. Yes, you can simply hang onto your bonds until maturity. You never mark to market. You are replacing the unrealized capital losses with purchasing power losses, but it feels okay to most people anyway. That is n...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 99
Views: 5611

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

Another important reason is that there are too many damn sectors and it doesn't make sense to have some 10+ factor equity model. That's a total mess. This is very much a peripheral point, but the factor models that are widely used in the industry have dozens and dozens of factors in them. Why? Ther...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2016 W2 shows state wages for states I neither worked nor lived in
Replies: 11
Views: 1022

Re: 2016 W2 shows state wages for states I neither worked nor lived in

I think the taxes are based on where the income was earned as opposed to your location on the date it was paid. I think the employer is saying that you earned the bonus in 2015.
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth. What to do with 68 cents
Replies: 7
Views: 511

Re: Backdoor Roth. What to do with 68 cents

Life was much easier in a zero interest rate world. :mrgreen:
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 99
Views: 5611

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

1. 25% each of iShares MTUM, SIZE, VLUE, QUAL? SIZE is kind of a weird ETF, as it's really more of a semi-low-vol ETF more than a smallcap one (despite the ticker symbol). If you want to load up on smallcaps, then use a smallcap ETF like IJR. VLUE is kind of interesting because it tries to be secto...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 99
Views: 5611

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

A factor model built completely on sectors would also explain well over 95% of returns. And there can be very large differences over time between the return of various sectors. The reasons sectors aren't generally used in factor models is that it's hard to make a purely quantitative case that the se...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My New Car Buying Tips
Replies: 198
Views: 41666

Re: My New Car Buying Tips

I think dealers must be shopping one another using this method more frequently. Earlier this week I contacted 6 dealers about a vehicle I'm interested in. I got OTD quotes from 4 of them and they were all within $100 of each other. Prices about $900 below the "Truecar average").
by stlutz
Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New vs. Used Car Purchase
Replies: 26
Views: 1737

Re: New vs. Used Car Purchase

Some people are asking what the "Bogleheadish" thing is to do. My view that we mostly focus on getting the big things right and the small things take care of themselves. From a purely financial perspective, the best move is to switch your attention to cars that cost in the low $20s brand n...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokerage selection when trading fees a non-factor
Replies: 5
Views: 457

Re: Brokerage selection when trading fees a non-factor

I use both Fido and Schwab. Fidelity is slightly better w.r.t technology and Schwab is slightly better with in-person support. According to the standardized Financial Industry Forum reports, Fido offers slightly better execution quality. https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/docum...
by stlutz
Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International versus Domestic
Replies: 9
Views: 888

Re: International versus Domestic

..about 40% which I think is rather high and looking at the LT performance it has not done well at all so I am puzzled ... he keeps telling me that its to balance the portfolio as domestic goes down international goes up but it seems to me international is down more than it is up what he says in th...
by stlutz
Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting
Replies: 27
Views: 2128

Re: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting

In the "Final, Definitive Thread on Value", (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=96441), one of the [pretend] posters pretty much kills the discussion when they point out that the question of whether to tilt ranks about 8th out of the 10 most important points in investing. Sav...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Vanguard Customer Support on weekends
Replies: 55
Views: 3962

Re: No Vanguard Customer Support on weekends

If I'm calling, I want them to be open on weekends; if I work there I want everything closed on weekends. But, if I'm calling I also like to talk to people who like working where they are working. I guess I don't think it's obvious that not having weekend hours is a bad thing, particularly if there ...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ally Website and Mobile Banking Down???
Replies: 10
Views: 586

Re: Ally Website and Mobile Banking Down???

I assume this is at least partially related to the switch over to next day ACH?
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 1089

Re: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds

I own Intermediate term Tax Exempt (VWITX) Great--thanks for the additional info. This fund has duration of 5.1 and an average stated maturity of around 8.5 years. Having held this fund for a long time, it's clear to me that VG targets keeping the fund duration in the low 5s pretty much all of the ...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 65
Views: 3417

Re: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting

Two things to keep in mind: a) The tax code allows for carryover losses now. It doesn't have to always be so. b) Step-up basis exists in the tax code now. It doesn't have to always be so. I'm always hesitant about trying to bank tax advantages now that I can't realize until 2035. I can see adding up...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 1089

Re: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds

Which of their muni funds do you currently own?
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower expense ratio vs increased diversification for international stock index fund?
Replies: 18
Views: 867

Re: Lower expense ratio vs increase diversification for international stock index fund?

You should not spend more than 30 seconds of your life worry about the ER difference and not more than 90 seconds of it worrying about the portfolio differences. This looks like a residual decision you'd make after working through the other asset classes in your portfolio.
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury returns historically almost match corporate bonds?
Replies: 9
Views: 841

Re: Treasury returns historically almost match corporate bonds?

This is actually somewhat difficult to measure because corporate bonds usually have call options and the term structure of corporate debt often differs from the structure of government debt. As such, simply comparing "corporate" and "government" bonds may not be comparing like vs...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large cash allocation in Fidelity's index funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1406

Re: Large cash allocation in Fidelity's index funds

This information is available in their "Monthly Holdings Report" on their website: https://www.actionsxchangerepository.fidelity.com/ShowDocument/ComplianceEnvelope.htm?_fax=-18%2342%23-61%23-110%23114%2378%23117%2320%23-1%2396%2339%23-62%23-21%2386%23-100%2337%2316%2335%23-68%2391%23-66%2...
by stlutz
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Insurance Settlement Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1101

Re: Auto Insurance Settlement Advice

More for the next guy than for the OP, but the better time to have first consulted an attorney was as soon as you were aware that there were injuries that would require medical treatment. Also if most people aren't aware, your personal injury lawyer should as a matter of practice not collect an atto...
by stlutz
Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity free Turbotax
Replies: 123
Views: 16004

Re: Fidelity free Turbotax

The free offer showed up on January 1. (I'd just bought TT on Amazon December 31t.


Call them up and tell them what happened and see if they will reimburse you.
by stlutz
Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me
Replies: 37
Views: 2367

Re: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me

But, unless you are going to assert the market pricing mechanism is busted - by definition if an asset class out performs, it has more risk. That's not by definition at all. I think everyone agrees that riskier investments provide the potential for outperformance. That doesn't mean that the reverse...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me
Replies: 37
Views: 2367

Re: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me

It looks like Value has less variance than Growth AND has higher returns, no mater what the size.


Which is why the options (a) and (d) in my second post are legitimately worth considering.
by stlutz
Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me
Replies: 37
Views: 2367

Re: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me

One of the things I've found from looking at the value/growth data from Ken French's website is that, on average, the value premium is larger in down markets than it is in up markets. That can lead in a number of possible directions: a) Value outperforms not because it's more risky than growth but b...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me
Replies: 37
Views: 2367

Re: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me

For kicks, I went over to portfoliovisualizer, and entered in VG mid-cap value (VMVIX) 100%, vs. VG mid-cap growth (VMGRX). VMVIX was 18.24% SD vs. VMGRX at 17.28%. A higher SD, implies greater volatility, which implies greater risk. You compared an index value fund vs. an actively-managed growth f...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My conversation with Burton Malkiel
Replies: 10
Views: 1506

Re: My conversation with Burton Malkiel

Does he object to TBM, because it has too many government bonds or not enough? I'm assuming the former. I actually think it's more "neither". The yield is simply too low that after taxes and inflation you're guaranteed to lose money (at least that is the thinking). As such, to get the ret...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: tax loss harvesting brokered cds?
Replies: 2
Views: 167

Re: tax loss harvesting brokered cds?

Spreads are too large. That would more than eat up your gain.

Plus, you'd then be replacing them with new higher yielding CDs. So you're converting a loss possibly at a 15% rate to interest income taxed at a higher rate.
by stlutz
Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth issue using Federal MMF
Replies: 27
Views: 1521

Re: Backdoor Roth issue using Federal MMF

In fairness to Vanguard, I've found that I have to wait about a week to do my conversions at Fidelity.
by stlutz
Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein on Bonds...wow
Replies: 31
Views: 4489

Re: Bernstein on Bonds...wow

Vanguard's Government bond funds cost .07%. You have to have a very odd definition of "small account" to say that this matters a bit.

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