Search found 1295 matches

by steve roy
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2085
Views: 509336

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Mrs. and I just saw "Allied" with Brad Pitt. WWII romance-drama. Well-directed by Robert Zemeckis, but kinda slooow. Does build up tension, but I wish it had more twists and a brisker pace. The crowds at the AMC in which we viewed it were not jostling one another for good seats. There ...
by steve roy
Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting in L.A. - good school district
Replies: 16
Views: 1169

Re: Renting in L.A. - good school district

I was going to say the Arcadia school district out in the San Gabriel Valley, but too far from LAX. Sadly, I know little about the Burg's nearer the airport.
by steve roy
Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2006
Views: 515922

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"Wealth and Democracy" by Kevin Phillips. Written in 2002, Phillips does an artful job walking the reader through two hundred-plus years of American economic policy, and detailing how the country's economy has evolved and where it is today. He warns against America's over-sized financial s...
by steve roy
Fri Oct 28, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 28218

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Just did some fact checking. In Feb 2009, the trailing 12 month P/E was 84.46. Not sure why you think they were single digits. http://www.multpl.com/table?f=m It looks like the CAPE10 was around 16, which would forecast 6% x 1.1 = 6.6% returns forever using Larry's methodology. https://www.quandl.c...
by steve roy
Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 28218

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

I'm on the other side of the fence (with Homer and maybe a few others, but it is pretty sparse over here) Which is really sad. I'm really surprised how few Bogleheads are stepping up and saying "No, you shouldn't time the market". ... . Welll, I'm a Boglehead, and I follow common sense. I...
by steve roy
Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement planning
Replies: 14
Views: 2703

Re: Retirement planning

After long and deep thought, my suggestions for the money would be as follows:

60% in Vanguard's Conservative Live Strategy Fund

40% in Vanguard's Wellesley Fund (Admiral).

This would give you a bit over 60% in bonds, good diversification, and something very easy to manage.
by steve roy
Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nisiprius Investments Unveils New MDF Factor-Based Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 3204

Re: Nisiprius Investments Unveils New MDF Factor-Based Fund

Ah, so we're allowing SOLICITATIONS around here now?

What's next? Ads for T. Rowe Price? Fidelity? Edward Jones? (Or perhaps Alex Jones?)

Is this thread in danger of being locked? And the key thrown away?
by steve roy
Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions of the Couch Potato Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1156

Re: Opinions of the Couch Potato Retirement Portfolio

Either one will work splendidly over time.

But ... almost any broadly diversified, low-cost stock/bond portfolio that isn't messed with will work splendidly over time.
by steve roy
Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Incorporating REIT index into already balanced portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 767

Re: Incorporating REIT index into already balanced portfolio

There's no way you can know in advance which asset allocation will be best (and no allocation is "best" forever.) Smartest strategy is to shoot things down the middle. Three Fund portfolio. Four fund portfolio (with REITS, if that suits you). Vanguard's asset allocation funds. Best idea: s...
by steve roy
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two investment questions
Replies: 1
Views: 229

Re: Two investment questions

Park it in a six-month CD. Minimal interest, but if you need liquidity and don't want to lose anything, your range of options are limited. My wife likes to dump money here and there will she'll get lots of credit card points. I'm an ignorant cluck about those kinds of things, but there's not a lot o...
by steve roy
Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 23018

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

If I were in your situation (and I should be so fortunate) I would be ... 70% in intermediate munis, 30% in equity index funds (or etfs) consisting of 1/3 Total Stock Market, 1/3 Small Cap Value, and 1/3 International Small Cap international. Then I would rebalance the thing once every 3-5 years, ta...
by steve roy
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio [Minimizing tax impacts]
Replies: 8
Views: 1324

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio [Minimizing tax impacts]

VG Intermediate Tax Exempt Bonds are of shorter duration than Total Bond. If you need to put bonds in taxable, they might be a good option.
by steve roy
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: has anyone wished they worked one or two more years
Replies: 76
Views: 6990

Re: has anyone wished they worked one or two more years

Work another year or two? Uh, no. I wanted to retire at 65, but circumstances compelled me to work until the age of 68. Now, if I could swing it so that, paraphrasing Mark Twain, "I'm employed, but not working," I would cheerfully keep on until 70. But the work has gotten more strenuous in...
by steve roy
Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]
Replies: 58
Views: 8723

Re: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]

I must be witless, for I have no Play Money, but only Money.

I put it in various accounts per my investment plan.
by steve roy
Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20% complete - Now What?
Replies: 3
Views: 573

Re: 20% complete - Now What?

Max the Roth and other retirement accounts. Aim at a 70% stock, 30% bond allocation (broadly diversified).

Don't over-splurge. (So yeah, put most of that $5500 goes into the TSP).

Be as safe as you can during deployment. Make sure your chute and reserve are in tip-top operating order.
by steve roy
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just rebalanced my 401k and Roth IRA. 100% VTTHX. Did I mess up?
Replies: 5
Views: 504

Re: I just rebalanced my 401k and Roth IRA. 100% VTTHX. Did I mess up?

Given your age, you've made an excellent choice.

If you were 78 and had hit your number, something else again.
by steve roy
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total market vs split by cap & grow/value
Replies: 7
Views: 583

Re: Total market vs split by cap & grow/value

Three equity funds gets more complicated with rebalancing (although I don't think it's a major deal). Question is: Would your slice-and-dice strategy outperform a sing cap-weighted fund? It has in the past, but nobody knows if it will in the future. And, of course, looking at past performance is ful...
by steve roy
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Balanced Index Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 996

Re: Balanced Index Fund

I think a wiser choice would be adding total international. Nobody knows if including Emerging Markets in a portfolio will be a good thing or bad thing. But I think having the complete world market is a fine way to go. When you say "wise", I assume that's code for "Hey, will this be a...
by steve roy
Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2016!
Replies: 218
Views: 24386

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2016!

Victoria?

Are us 2016 retirees getting a nice plaque? A key-chain perhaps? Maybe a thumb drive? Seems only right.
by steve roy
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on adding Wellesley to 3-Fund Portfolio in Roth IRA
Replies: 19
Views: 1523

Re: Thoughts on adding Wellesley to 3-Fund Portfolio in Roth IRA

I've had a big part of my Roth IRA invested in Wellesley for years and years. But then, I'm a geezer, not a twenty-something. For you, I think you're better served in the stock index funds of your choice.
by steve roy
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best bond strategy going forward?
Replies: 23
Views: 2456

Re: Best bond strategy going forward?

May I add here that if you were invested inb the Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond Index ... with a slightly longer duration and slightly smaller dollop of government bonds ... you would be doing better than you would if you were invested in Total Bond Market. May I also add that I have been overweigh...
by steve roy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house that doesn't get any bids. Having Cold Feet!
Replies: 13
Views: 1958

Re: Buying a house that doesn't get any bids. Having Cold Feet!

We bought a house twenty years ago that had been on the market a year without a nibble. We got a good price for it because the sellers wanted badly to sell. Luckily for us, the owners owned a dump and they made no effort to fix it up. We'll be selling the former dump next year; if prices hold, we wi...
by steve roy
Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will there ever be a better time to sell off my international stake?
Replies: 35
Views: 3435

Re: Will there ever be a better time to sell off my international stake?

Does the Buffett/Bogle advice "Buy and HOLD" mean anything to you?
by steve roy
Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used car from a rental agency
Replies: 23
Views: 2130

Re: Buying a used car from a rental agency

We've bought a few Hertz rentals over the years. My mother-in-law had one. Never any problems with them.
by steve roy
Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Older MacBook: what could go wrong?
Replies: 12
Views: 1445

Re: Older MacBook: what could go wrong?

The wife and I have used Macbook Airs for some years, and like them. I think when you get a five-year-old computer that has started on the firtz, you're probably well-advised to buy a new one.

So why not take your old model AND a new one with you? So you've got a backup if disaster happens?
by steve roy
Sat Jun 18, 2016 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2006
Views: 515922

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"THIS GULF OF FIRE" by Mark Molesky An in-depth look at the earthquake, tsunami and fire that destroyed Lisbon, Portugal in 1755. Lisbon was the wealthiest city in Europe when a huge earthquake leveled wide sections of Portugal's capital and brought about big changes to its government and ...
by steve roy
Sat Jun 18, 2016 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: cost of raising kids. BHs experience through college
Replies: 76
Views: 4785

Re: cost of raising kids. BHs experience through college

The costs go up only as much as you can afford to pay them. For instance, families who do not have zillions of dollars will not have kids that cost them zillions of dollars. Families without zillions find ways of paying for day care, but not the expensive day care often mentioned in the forum. Most...
by steve roy
Fri Jun 17, 2016 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?
Replies: 23
Views: 1669

Re: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?

If my stock indexfunds' P/E dropped to single digits, I would do a small tactical rebalance, from 30/70 to 40/60 or thereabouts.

Maybe it's wrong, but I'm weak. That's likely be the only circumstance where I would do that.
by steve roy
Fri Jun 17, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore
Replies: 51
Views: 6365

Re: 60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore

Toons wrote:60/40 is Dead.
I feel better.
I will be ok then.
I am 70/30 :happy


And I'm 30/70, so I'm good.

What a freaking RELIEF!
by steve roy
Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 118
Views: 7380

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

Either 9 or 10 basis points. With Vanguard we're at 11 basis points, and the wife has a chunk of money with TSP which averages 3-4 basis points.

I'm doing back-of-the-envelope guesstimate. Might be as low as 8 basis points, who knows?
by steve roy
Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond fund has been a good investment
Replies: 6
Views: 1298

Re: Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond fund has been a good investment

Might I point out that Vanguard's "Long-Term" tax exempt bond fund isn't all that long term. It's really just slightly longer in duration than the Vanguard Intermediate Bond Index. Always good to look at the durations of various "Intermediate" and "Long Term" funds. Bec...
by steve roy
Thu Jun 09, 2016 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"
Replies: 76
Views: 6556

Re: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"

No international bonds here boss!

And there ain't gonna be.
by steve roy
Mon Jun 06, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: After 30 yrs at Megacorp my IT job was surplussed...
Replies: 52
Views: 6821

Re: After 30 yrs at Megacorp my IT job was surplussed...

Silly, minor thing re your workout routine. If you run for cardio, I would consider walking for cardio instead. I pounded away as a runner for eighteen years, then the shin splints started, I got more aches and pains ... and I switched to power walking. (I tried bicycling but after coming close to b...
by steve roy
Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Final portfolio construction: Add SCV or Increase equity exposure?
Replies: 26
Views: 2101

Re: Final portfolio construction: Add SCV or Increase equity exposure?

Speaking as somebody who tilts small cap and value, I think that a simple three-fund allocation will suffice. Reason being, we don't know how small cap value will perform going forward, and we don't know how Total Stock Market (or the similar S & P 500) will do over the next year, five years, fi...
by steve roy
Sun Jun 05, 2016 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Don't make this gigantic Social Security mistake"
Replies: 69
Views: 9540

Re: "Don't make this gigantic Social Security mistake"

But figure 1 in http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/IB_15-8.pdf shows that about half claim at 62, about one-third claim at FRA, and only about 3% claim at 70. This seems much different than what I hear on this board. .... The people on this board do not necessarily overlap very much with ...
by steve roy
Sun Jun 05, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Southwest Companion Pass
Replies: 14
Views: 1562

Re: Southwest Companion Pass

My bride has a SWA companion pass and she's frustrated that she hasn't used it more than she has. The problem is I'm still working and can't fly as often as she does. I think, after we're both retired, she will make better use of it. To make it work well it's good to have an idea how you're going to...
by steve roy
Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1086
Views: 184627

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up .7% for the year.

Up 4.5% for five years.

Up 4.6% for ten years.

Stock-bonds: 30%/70%. Small cap-value tilt. Short bond durations (3.5-4 years)
by steve roy
Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How persnickety are you with your rebalance bands?
Replies: 39
Views: 3065

Re: How persnickety are you with your rebalance bands?

I'm not persnickety at all. I've got six months of accumulation left before retirement, and the wife has a bunch of money in the Federal TSP, so I have only an estimate of asset percentages from Vanguard's "Portfolio Analysis." (Vanguard is where most of the loot is stashed.) The goal is a...
by steve roy
Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession hitting within next twelve months...
Replies: 31
Views: 4860

Re: Recession hitting within next twelve months...

Market prognosticators were placed on earth by God (who has, in all things, a fine sense of humor) to make gypsy fortune tellers look good.
by steve roy
Wed Jun 01, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you educate your kids on finances
Replies: 32
Views: 2751

Re: How did you educate your kids on finances

I've tried and tried, without success. Older kid (now 29 years old) went to work at an early age and "always wanted to be in charge". He dropped out of college over his parents' strenuous objections and went to work for Southwest Airlines, down at the bottom of their heap. Today he is a SW...
by steve roy
Sat May 28, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tips for weight exercises/training
Replies: 81
Views: 5845

Re: tips for weight exercises/training

Walk. Walk every day. Fifteen minutes at first, then slowly up it to an hour. Doing this long term is key.

Add simple upper body exercises over time but don't overdo it. Injuries result. The goal here is sustainable over all health. Diet and portion control also essential. Minimize desserts.
by steve roy
Fri May 27, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I want a house with a pool?
Replies: 96
Views: 7947

Re: Do I want a house with a pool?

We have a largish chlorine/H20 rectangle in the front yard. Wish we didn't. Wished the same thing when we bought the house, but we purchased the abode anyway. We've lived in the house for twenty-two years, and this is how it's gone: First few years, we covered that pool up, tried to ignore we had it...
by steve roy
Mon May 23, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WW2 Books & Education
Replies: 91
Views: 3825

Re: WW2 Books & Education

A good overview: The Second World War, Antony Beevor Some of my personal favorites: Citizen Soldiers, Stephen Ambrose Band of Brothers, Stephen Ambrose The Good War, Studs Terkel WIth the Old Breed, At Peleliu and Okinawa - E.B. Sledge Guadalcanal Diary, Richard Tregaskis Night, Elie Wiesel Soldat,...
by steve roy
Fri May 20, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: series/ movies filmed in your home town?
Replies: 87
Views: 3791

Re: series/ movies filmed in your home town?

I live in L.A., so it's pointless to name movies filmed here. But this, about "It's A Wonderful Life" (set in upstate New York) is semi-interesting: http://drawnonadime.blogspot.com/2007/12/its-wonderful-life-then-now.html Bedford Falls in "It's a Wonderful Life" is patterned aft...
by steve roy
Tue May 17, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Las Vegas in July
Replies: 34
Views: 3384

Re: Las Vegas in July

If you're lucky enough to park your car in a non-covered lot in Vegas during July, bring your knitted pot holders.

You'll need them to manipulate door handles and the steering wheel of your vehicle.
by steve roy
Tue May 17, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IF YOU TILT small cap, DO YOU PAIR SP500 or TSM with it?
Replies: 43
Views: 3045

Re: IF YOU TILT small cap, DO YOU PAIR SP500 or TSM with it?

Here's what I do: 70% bonds*/30% stocks Bonds: Intermediate Term funds Stocks: 70% domestic , of which 50% is Total Stock Market/50% Small Cap Value 30% International , most of which is the Vanguard International Small Cap ETF I'm a believer that small cap/small cap value will earn more over time. A...
by steve roy
Sun May 15, 2016 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Destination, Not Journey?
Replies: 20
Views: 2525

Re: Destination, Not Journey?

I give you the wisdom of my youngest son:

"Dad? Life's a journey ... and we're ALL headed to the same place."

So strive to chill about it.
by steve roy
Sun May 15, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rich But Middle Class
Replies: 233
Views: 24017

Re: Rich But Middle Class

My rule of thumb: The more money you make, the more options you have (both good and bad). You and the Mrs. should analyze where you are and prioritize . If you move to a lower-cost area and send your daughters to good public schools, your cash flow increases and that increases your options. If you a...
by steve roy
Sun May 15, 2016 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads® Wiki 2016 annual report
Replies: 21
Views: 2211

Re: Bogleheads® Wiki 2016 annual report

LOVE the Wiki. Great tool, great resource.
by steve roy
Tue May 10, 2016 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Value of Active Management" - a thoughtful analysis
Replies: 14
Views: 3124

Re: "The Value of Active Management" - a thoughtful analysis

On a related (but sad) note for active management enthusiasts*: Defeated managers, in assets globally ** Active managers missed hitting their benchmark in every case. http://ritholtz.com/2016/05/defeated-managers-assets-globally/ ** Apologies if this was put up elsewhere. Technoklutz that I am, I fa...

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