Search found 1323 matches

by steve roy
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any books really change your outlook on life?
Replies: 270
Views: 40593

Re: Any books really change your outlook on life?

"How I Found Freedom In An Unfree World" by Harry Browne.

I remember it had a big impression on me when I was in my early twenties. Triggered the idea of going against the general flow, of thinking separately and independently.
by steve roy
Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing Is A Delusion
Replies: 5
Views: 1088

Re: Passive Index Investing Is A Delusion

I don't know where this gent is coming from. When you buy the market, you buy the market. You're not buying the market circa 1986. Of COURSE broad index funds change over time, because the companies in those markets change ... sometimes even (gasp!) disappear ... over time. What's he want? Everythin...
by steve roy
Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1697
Views: 913312

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

What I discovered in the course of running a 401(k) Plan is, most people investing for retirement aren't that interested in investment theory, and just want something safe and steady and easily explainable. The Three Fund Portfolio does that in spades. I think one of its biggest advantages is that i...
by steve roy
Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 million in cash. Target Retirement Income or Target Retirement 2015
Replies: 38
Views: 4161

Re: 3 million in cash. Target Retirement Income or Target Retirement 2015

Criticism of Wellesley here: the equity side of the fund holds 60 stocks, give or take, which many think is too narrow a portfolio. But Burton Malkiel in "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" maintains that 60 stocks is all it takes to reduce systemic risk. (Chart on p. 212 of updated paperback...
by steve roy
Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About Wellington VWENX
Replies: 14
Views: 1504

Re: About Wellington VWENX

'Twere me, I would put 60℅ in Lifestrategy and 40℅ in Wellington. Both worlds.
by steve roy
Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 million in cash. Target Retirement Income or Target Retirement 2015
Replies: 38
Views: 4161

Re: 3 million in cash. Target Retirement Income or Target Retirement 2015

What I recently recommended: 60% in Target Retirement Income, 40% in Wellesley. Best of Active/Passive. Adjust percentages to taste.
by steve roy
Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Klargman thoughts on Trump and to a lesser extent, mutual funds and ETFs
Replies: 3
Views: 865

Re: Klargman thoughts on Trump and to a lesser extent, mutual funds and ETFs

It's a fool's errand to predict political outcomes of tax and spending policies. We'll know more by late summer when tax law comes into focus. We know less now. That still won't tell us where the markets end up.

And this thread will be locked in a couple of heartbeats
by steve roy
Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Active Funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2883

Re: Vanguard Active Funds

For anybody fifty or above it would be Wellesley.
by steve roy
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2417
Views: 610374

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Watched "Singin' In The Rain" with minimal soundtrack listening to commentary. Struck by how zippy and energetic it is visually.

Also struck by how well tooled studio features could be in that period. I love the
long takes.
by steve roy
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!
Replies: 199
Views: 7325

Re: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!

You are now safely past adolescence and young adulthood. Smooth sailing from here!
by steve roy
Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Financial Moves You've Made
Replies: 141
Views: 16046

Re: Best Financial Moves You've Made

Saying adios to my financial advisor. Getting out of individual stocks and into mutual funds (mostly index). And buying two houses at the bottoms of two markets.
by steve roy
Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Ratios and Index Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 543

Re: Help with Ratios and Index Funds

I, too, am in a Vanguard Target Date Fund in my 401(k). I also do a lot of slicing and dicing in the rest of my portfolio, and every year I pause and reflect that maybe, just maybe, I would be better off dumping ALL my tax-advantaged investments into Vanguard Target Funds and let the big mutual fund...
by steve roy
Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Income funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2146

Re: Income funds

My vote would be 60% Vanguard Target Income ... and 40% Wellesley Income.

You could also go half-and-half. That would work well too.
by steve roy
Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 28053

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

My number?

December 6, 2016.

I'd done the same job for twenty-seven years and three weeks, I was wading into Geezerhood, and I'd had enough.

It's been three weeks now and so far, so good. Recreational sleeping is wonderful.
by steve roy
Sat Dec 31, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210734

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 4.4% with a 30/70 allocation. We are largely out of the equities game, but will increase holdings next year when slugs of new money come in.
by steve roy
Tue Dec 27, 2016 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1069

Re: Portfolio Advice

Simplify, aqan, simplify. In the available 401(k) funds, use the age appropriate Vanguard Target Date Fund and throw most of the rest overboard. Otherwise there's lots of duplication. Same thing in the rollover IRA, there's lots of funds here, but the Target Date is really all you need. Keep your ey...
by steve roy
Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you plan for retirement?
Replies: 32
Views: 2956

Re: How do you plan for retirement?

Paid ourselves first, tried to tuck greenbacks into both 401(k)s and investment accounts over the past quarter century. Put in as much as we could, but some years we had more to invest than other years. Funded the kids in public schools and colleges, not private. And basically, we both reached the a...
by steve roy
Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How has Financial Independence changed your life?
Replies: 55
Views: 6965

Re: How has Financial Independence changed your life?

Financial Independence has enabled me (us) to hook up and bail out of the 9-to-5 steeple chase.

Sadly, FI has come on the cusp of geezerhood, but better that it arrives later in life than not at all.
by steve roy
Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2417
Views: 610374

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

"The Edge of Seventeen" is a funny and keenly-observed ninety-four minutes. Hailee Steinfeld and Woody Harrelson are excellent, and the rest of the cast quite good. Plot's fairly predictable (it's a teen angst movie, after all) but the characters are nicely rounded and there are a few nice...
by steve roy
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How old is your vehicle?
Replies: 200
Views: 13875

Re: How old is your vehicle?

2005 Voivo with 66k. Bought it almost new for $19,000. Sticks are not beloved in So Cal.
by steve roy
Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2417
Views: 610374

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Recently viewed "La La Land." Well worth seeing. Leads Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone are not strong singers, but they bring verve and naturalness to their roles and the picture does a good job re-booting the Musical. Not Gene and Fred, nor Judy Garland, but "LLL" is fresh, original...
by steve roy
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 50
Views: 3838

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

If I may, the D/R All-Seasons Portfolio looks to be a kissing cousin of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, profiled by William Bernstein several years ago: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm Nothing wrong with the similarities, as the PP has many strengths. (Note the asset classes...
by steve roy
Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the REAL reasons to avoid international?
Replies: 71
Views: 5388

Re: What are the REAL reasons to avoid international?

livesoft wrote:C'mon, the real reason is [remarks removed by non-moderator].

But we can't say the truth on this forum.


Because this forum can't HANDLE the truth!
by steve roy
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2146
Views: 583172

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"Oral History: The Daily Show" A fast and entertaining read of the entire history of The Daily Show, though it is 98% focused on the Jon Stewart era. All the talent that worked on the show, the correspondents, producers, writers, and Mr. Stewart himself, talk about the evolution of the sho...
by steve roy
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2417
Views: 610374

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

"Miss Sloane" with Jessica Chastain I wanted to like it more than I did. Performances are solid, but everybody talks like they've just written out their little speech and committed it to memory. This makes the proceedings a wee bit stilted. (However, much of the talk is entertaining). On t...
by steve roy
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question for retirees? 3 fund portfolio + TIPS
Replies: 20
Views: 1569

Re: Question for retirees? 3 fund portfolio + TIPS

Erwin, Like Taylor, I had a slug of TIPS. Also like Taylor I sold them opting instead for 50% intermediate term bond index and 50% short term bond index. My reason for selling it is the bonds were doing next to nothing. I didn't change my bond allocation or my duration, just my choice of bonds. Of c...
by steve roy
Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My "sleep well at night" number seems to be changing
Replies: 49
Views: 8079

Re: My "sleep well at night" number seems to be changing

Stock valuations are high, interest rates are rising so bond funds' net asset values are dropping. Don't blame you for being a bit kerflempt. The only "bargains" are in international, and I don't know how keen you are to buy more foreign equities and/or bonds. But maybe you should consider...
by steve roy
Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think Slice and Dice makes it harder to stay the course?
Replies: 40
Views: 2429

Re: Do you think Slice and Dice makes it harder to stay the course?

I agree with many of the folks above. It might be MARGINALLY easier to "stay the course" with a Three-Fund portfolio, but you either stay focused and truetto your investment plan or you don't. Whether you have three funds or ten, you can't let yourself get buffeted by every change in the v...
by steve roy
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2417
Views: 610374

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Mrs. and I just saw "Allied" with Brad Pitt. WWII romance-drama. Well-directed by Robert Zemeckis, but kinda slooow. Does build up tension, but I wish it had more twists and a brisker pace. The crowds at the AMC in which we viewed it were not jostling one another for good seats. There ...
by steve roy
Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting in L.A. - good school district
Replies: 16
Views: 1286

Re: Renting in L.A. - good school district

I was going to say the Arcadia school district out in the San Gabriel Valley, but too far from LAX. Sadly, I know little about the Burg's nearer the airport.
by steve roy
Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2146
Views: 583172

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"Wealth and Democracy" by Kevin Phillips. Written in 2002, Phillips does an artful job walking the reader through two hundred-plus years of American economic policy, and detailing how the country's economy has evolved and where it is today. He warns against America's over-sized financial s...
by steve roy
Fri Oct 28, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 30411

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Just did some fact checking. In Feb 2009, the trailing 12 month P/E was 84.46. Not sure why you think they were single digits. http://www.multpl.com/table?f=m It looks like the CAPE10 was around 16, which would forecast 6% x 1.1 = 6.6% returns forever using Larry's methodology. https://www.quandl.c...
by steve roy
Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 30411

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

I'm on the other side of the fence (with Homer and maybe a few others, but it is pretty sparse over here) Which is really sad. I'm really surprised how few Bogleheads are stepping up and saying "No, you shouldn't time the market". ... . Welll, I'm a Boglehead, and I follow common sense. I...
by steve roy
Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement planning
Replies: 14
Views: 2750

Re: Retirement planning

After long and deep thought, my suggestions for the money would be as follows:

60% in Vanguard's Conservative Live Strategy Fund

40% in Vanguard's Wellesley Fund (Admiral).

This would give you a bit over 60% in bonds, good diversification, and something very easy to manage.
by steve roy
Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nisiprius Investments Unveils New MDF Factor-Based Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 3470

Re: Nisiprius Investments Unveils New MDF Factor-Based Fund

Ah, so we're allowing SOLICITATIONS around here now?

What's next? Ads for T. Rowe Price? Fidelity? Edward Jones? (Or perhaps Alex Jones?)

Is this thread in danger of being locked? And the key thrown away?
by steve roy
Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions of the Couch Potato Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1255

Re: Opinions of the Couch Potato Retirement Portfolio

Either one will work splendidly over time.

But ... almost any broadly diversified, low-cost stock/bond portfolio that isn't messed with will work splendidly over time.
by steve roy
Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Incorporating REIT index into already balanced portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 835

Re: Incorporating REIT index into already balanced portfolio

There's no way you can know in advance which asset allocation will be best (and no allocation is "best" forever.) Smartest strategy is to shoot things down the middle. Three Fund portfolio. Four fund portfolio (with REITS, if that suits you). Vanguard's asset allocation funds. Best idea: s...
by steve roy
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two investment questions
Replies: 1
Views: 243

Re: Two investment questions

Park it in a six-month CD. Minimal interest, but if you need liquidity and don't want to lose anything, your range of options are limited. My wife likes to dump money here and there will she'll get lots of credit card points. I'm an ignorant cluck about those kinds of things, but there's not a lot o...
by steve roy
Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 24108

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

If I were in your situation (and I should be so fortunate) I would be ... 70% in intermediate munis, 30% in equity index funds (or etfs) consisting of 1/3 Total Stock Market, 1/3 Small Cap Value, and 1/3 International Small Cap international. Then I would rebalance the thing once every 3-5 years, ta...
by steve roy
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio [Minimizing tax impacts]
Replies: 8
Views: 1457

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio [Minimizing tax impacts]

VG Intermediate Tax Exempt Bonds are of shorter duration than Total Bond. If you need to put bonds in taxable, they might be a good option.
by steve roy
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: has anyone wished they worked one or two more years
Replies: 76
Views: 7202

Re: has anyone wished they worked one or two more years

Work another year or two? Uh, no. I wanted to retire at 65, but circumstances compelled me to work until the age of 68. Now, if I could swing it so that, paraphrasing Mark Twain, "I'm employed, but not working," I would cheerfully keep on until 70. But the work has gotten more strenuous in...
by steve roy
Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]
Replies: 58
Views: 8974

Re: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]

I must be witless, for I have no Play Money, but only Money.

I put it in various accounts per my investment plan.
by steve roy
Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20% complete - Now What?
Replies: 3
Views: 589

Re: 20% complete - Now What?

Max the Roth and other retirement accounts. Aim at a 70% stock, 30% bond allocation (broadly diversified).

Don't over-splurge. (So yeah, put most of that $5500 goes into the TSP).

Be as safe as you can during deployment. Make sure your chute and reserve are in tip-top operating order.
by steve roy
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just rebalanced my 401k and Roth IRA. 100% VTTHX. Did I mess up?
Replies: 5
Views: 530

Re: I just rebalanced my 401k and Roth IRA. 100% VTTHX. Did I mess up?

Given your age, you've made an excellent choice.

If you were 78 and had hit your number, something else again.
by steve roy
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total market vs split by cap & grow/value
Replies: 7
Views: 610

Re: Total market vs split by cap & grow/value

Three equity funds gets more complicated with rebalancing (although I don't think it's a major deal). Question is: Would your slice-and-dice strategy outperform a sing cap-weighted fund? It has in the past, but nobody knows if it will in the future. And, of course, looking at past performance is ful...
by steve roy
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Balanced Index Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 1024

Re: Balanced Index Fund

I think a wiser choice would be adding total international. Nobody knows if including Emerging Markets in a portfolio will be a good thing or bad thing. But I think having the complete world market is a fine way to go. When you say "wise", I assume that's code for "Hey, will this be a...
by steve roy
Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2016!
Replies: 230
Views: 26800

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2016!

Victoria?

Are us 2016 retirees getting a nice plaque? A key-chain perhaps? Maybe a thumb drive? Seems only right.
by steve roy
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on adding Wellesley to 3-Fund Portfolio in Roth IRA
Replies: 19
Views: 1635

Re: Thoughts on adding Wellesley to 3-Fund Portfolio in Roth IRA

I've had a big part of my Roth IRA invested in Wellesley for years and years. But then, I'm a geezer, not a twenty-something. For you, I think you're better served in the stock index funds of your choice.
by steve roy
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best bond strategy going forward?
Replies: 23
Views: 2587

Re: Best bond strategy going forward?

May I add here that if you were invested inb the Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond Index ... with a slightly longer duration and slightly smaller dollop of government bonds ... you would be doing better than you would if you were invested in Total Bond Market. May I also add that I have been overweigh...
by steve roy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house that doesn't get any bids. Having Cold Feet!
Replies: 13
Views: 2018

Re: Buying a house that doesn't get any bids. Having Cold Feet!

We bought a house twenty years ago that had been on the market a year without a nibble. We got a good price for it because the sellers wanted badly to sell. Luckily for us, the owners owned a dump and they made no effort to fix it up. We'll be selling the former dump next year; if prices hold, we wi...

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