Search found 492 matches

by steve r
Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?
Replies: 4
Views: 412

Re: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?

Thanks. For me, (I suspect but do not know) it was not so much TIAA as it was my employer dial back on some expenses.
by steve r
Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?
Replies: 4
Views: 412

403b FEE changes - do I have options?

I HAD a great thing in my 403b ... Vanguard Index funds. So great that when my employer decided to reduce the number of plan sponsors (TIAA and FIDELITY) to just one I decided to move my Fidelity money to TIAA. Fast forward a bit, and TIAA/my employer have a new deal, I still have index funds but no...
by steve r
Mon May 16, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 123
Views: 14643

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

I am assuming 100,000 loan. 30 years at 3.25 percent, monthly payment is 435.21. After 15 years you owe $61,939 15 year mortgage at 2.75 percent your payments are $678.62 If the differences of $243.41 is saved EVERY MONTH, what rate would you need to earn to have $61,939 in 15 years? (Bankrate, savi...
by steve r
Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 2058

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

Hi Sam, Any thoughts on whether or not these four should be on the short-list for investigation for people interested in Minimum Volatility? (Vanguard's is not an ETF of course) VMNVX, Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility, expense 0.21%, roughly 50/50 US/non-US USMV, iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatili...
by steve r
Sun Apr 10, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 2058

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

Also, don't forget that many minimum volatility strategies have some duration risk. All other things equal, they tend to do well when interest rates fall and suffer when interest rates rise. If you want bond exposure in a taxable account, minimum volatility funds can be a reasonable choice. Good po...
by steve r
Sun Apr 10, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 2058

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

I certainly wouldn't be looking to use these ETF's with anything other than a buy and hold strategy. David, I am in this space as a buy and hold strategy for many years now. (first ACWV, then VMNVX when it came out) I suggest that you do your homework. A good start is: https://www.bogleheads.org/wi...
by steve r
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 20th Century Stereo in a 21st Century World
Replies: 70
Views: 6286

Re: 20th Century Stereo in a 21st Century World

I have not read ALL the other comments Go to eBay and find a Bluetooth device with either RCA jacks or whatever plugs you used. Then, put all your music on your phone or other Bluetooth device. Bluetooth sounds scary - it isn't. Don't have one, get an old iPod or old phone. You can keep all you new ...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 52
Views: 5105

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

steve R Just check the p/e ratios of the low vol funds and compare them to value funds of say DFA. They used to be quite similar, no more, at last I checked Larry If you run a backtest on low-vol you will notice its outperformance really kicks in once the ETFs came out; and the overall performance ...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 52
Views: 5105

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

I have been a converter since early 2015 after I read all the research I could find. Thus, I have invested exclusively in low volatility equity ETFs. My global equity diversification is: 45% USMV (instead of SPY), 45% EFAV (instead of EFA), 10% EEMV (instead of EEM). And now during the current mark...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 52
Views: 5105

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

For 85 years, low volatility investing has lead to reduced risk and higher risk adjusted returns. Period. This fact has been written about now since the 1970s and the pattern continues. Moreover, I suspect that it is hard for this space to get crowded, as crowds increase volatility -- thus changing ...
by steve r
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 11841

Re: Rebalancing, another study

...And so on. Personally I found http://www.vanguard.com/pdf/icrpr.pdf to be a lot more straightforward while looking at very similiar schemes. Not thrilled about the ~90 year time period in one chart (or only the 1989+ in the others) but it is the best paper I have seen. I saw this paper a while b...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 11841

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Part of the discussion (on page 3 of this thread) is that the new study compares to income placement (not annual -- which is viewed as the usual in the literature). The study has two justifications for doing so. First, the second figure shows that annual (or quarterly or monthly ) rebalancing under...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 11841

Re: Rebalancing, another study

The idea of regularly scheduled rebalancing based on a calendar makes little sense to be ... except for the advantage of eliminating (bad) behavioral issues. Many investors have behavioral issues, when it comes to rebalancing. I think that it would be a mistake to ignore this aspect. As any claimed...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 11841

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... I recreated Daranyani's portfolio (not using the same exact sources per asset class though), then simulated his time period of choice (1992-2004), and his 10-yrs rolling periods. This is indeed a peculiar time, where the no-rebalancing technique is systematically inferior to the various rebalan...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 11841

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... I recreated Daranyani's portfolio (not using the same exact sources per asset class though), then simulated his time period of choice (1992-2004), and his 10-yrs rolling periods. This is indeed a peculiar time, where the no-rebalancing technique is systematically inferior to the various rebalan...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 11841

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... a) I was surprised how closely rebalancing using only dividends kept one to their target allocations over time. ... b) I think the study is also consistent with the overall concept that there is shorter term momentum and longer-term mean reversion in returns ... I'd still stick with the view th...
by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 7749

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 Having discussions on how unfair the system is pointless. We aren't going to change it. Heck I don't think 1 is even right. Last time I checked Harvard claimed the cost to educate 1 student was about 70k. Hence all undergrads were subsidized and it is just a question...
by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 7749

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 I do not see how this is in any way different than minimizing taxes or getting the best deal you can on a home or auto. Imagine going to an auto dealer and having the price you negotiate depend on income and lifetime savings. I would feel 100 percent differently if :...
by steve r
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase
Replies: 5
Views: 396

Re: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase

I am having a similar struggle lately. I like my asset allocation -- have been sticking with it for years and fully believe I can stick with it for years to come. Intellectually, I can come up with a compelling case for my AA and why I use only low cost funds and mostly index funds. As such, I can s...
by steve r
Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?
Replies: 7
Views: 1749

Re: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?

I am doing something similar. Conservative by lowering debt. Aggressive on asset allocation. That said, I think 15 percent bonds is already very aggressive based on standard formulas like age in bonds or age - 10 in bonds. I would NOT suggest being MORE aggressive. The standard formula likely assume...
by steve r
Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low beta, low volatility
Replies: 28
Views: 2488

Re: Low beta, low volatility

Beliavsky .... The right conclusion IMO is that you will get less risk, and IMO likely less return. Now with high beta I think you can conclude you'll get high risk and likely poor returns. Larry IMO this is the right conclusion (I am in this space). Couple questions -- and opinions are fine 1) Wha...
by steve r
Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is a car warranty package worth it?
Replies: 46
Views: 2428

Re: Is a car warranty package worth it?

My thought is this ... even if you use $2,000 in repairs ... Subaru and the dealer probably STILL profit off you. That is to say what cost you $2,000 for repairs probably costs them a fraction of that. Should you cancel? Probably. Is the case to cancel a slam dunk? Hard to say. If you prefer getting...
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1521

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Continuing my previous post (playing with data on high yields).

High yields have fat tails and a high kurtosis. High than totals stock market, S&P500, and quite a few other indexes. Not sure what I expected prior to doing the calculations, but I would guess this is about as expected.

Steve
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1521

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I love your summary .... Steve I can't find the data, but my intuition says junk bonds have negative skew. Consider that they are both callable (limited upside) and carry the potential to default (high downside). You are right based on back tested annual (Simba) dated 1985 to 2014. My i...
by steve r
Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1521

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I would say it is a must read for anyone invested in the low vol. space. Tentatively, I would say it offers a partial explanation of why major asset classes with greater measured risk offer greater returns, but not always assets within such asset classes. .... penny stocks (positive) vs ...
by steve r
Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?
Replies: 15
Views: 486

Re: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?

January.
If the market goes down during the year, you can have a redo ... (reverse the re characterization) and try again next January.
by steve r
Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1485

Re: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

Curious if any Bogleheads see any value in Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMNVX). If the following claim is true, it would be useful for conservative investors seeking global diversification: "It is reasonable for investors to expect, on average, for a minimum volatility fund to ou...
by steve r
Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 1667

Re: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?

I looked at the time period that goes as far back for all 4 funds, which is approximately 9 years. I found the following: #1 performer - PKW - Buyback index ETF - concentrating on companies that are partaking in large amounts of share buybacks - Total return 96.78% #2 performer - FLVCX - Fidelity L...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 8202

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

. "Over the long-haul what matters is factor exposure and expense" Minimum volatility is just a different combination of factors. For example, the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility factor loads for the full period the index series is available: MSCI USA Minimum Volatility: June 1988 to May 2015...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 8202

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

...I can manage the total portfolio volatility by adjusting the stock/bond ratio. So in this scenario, picking lower volatility, lower return equities is more or less than same as just adding more bonds to the mix with the higher volatility stocks. +1 It is what I do. The trick is how much less bon...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 8202

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

A way to look at this space is that it is the most volatile stocks that underperform. History has shown this. Managers do not have to predict the least volatile stocks, only avoid the most volatile ones. But that's not what factor-based investing, nor this fund, does. This post was in response to w...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 8202

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

According to standard CAPM theory there is a risk/reward tradeoff in all markets. The higher the risk, the greater the expected reward and the lower the risk, the lower the expected reward. Academic studies looking specifically at low volatility stocks have shown this basic assumption to be false i...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 8202

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Stocks are still going to sting in a downturn, even these ones. Just possibly a little meaningfully less. You can check various low volatility indexes to see what might have happened in 2008-2009 in theory. But nowhere are you getting diversification of the likes you see with high-quality bonds. By...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 8202

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

If most managers can't pick stocks well enough to beat the relevant index, why should one believe they will be any better in predicting what stocks will be low volatility? If one wants to lower volatility, just reduce equity exposure. Simple, cheap, no manager risk, proven over time. A way to look ...
by steve r
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 9158

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Did small-caps outperform the total market since 1926? Yes. Did they if you remove the single period 1975-1983? No. If they did have higher return, did they have higher risk-adjusted return? Probably not ... I have read this "fact" a thousand times ... and yet .. according to Jack Bogle ....
by steve r
Sun Jun 21, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New to Golf
Replies: 45
Views: 5480

Re: New to Golf

1) lessons 2) rock bottom golf has a complete set with putter wedges driver woods irons and hybrids and bag for 200 (Ray cook) .. If u have more to spend I would go with Adams Speedline set for 299 (price not listed). This is very good set. U may find a used deal for less. This assumes you are avera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 2053

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Sometimes the triple leveraged ETF can help. Its strange behavior will give you more gain if the investment goes up steadily, and reduce losses if it goes down steadily. Right. Tripple daily cannot go below zero. Tripple with borrowing can. This is relative to levered with margin. Obviously, levera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA-Cref Alternatives
Replies: 11
Views: 1432

Re: TIAA-Cref Alternatives

Vanguard will minimize fees. Their target funds or life cycle funds will minimize effort and thinking going forward. One fund and done.
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 2053

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Understanding the math may help. (it helped me) If, over the course of a year Nat Gas has 120 days up one percent and 120 days down one percent, what do you think will happen to the daily tripled levered etf? a) break even b) lose about 5 percent c) lose over ten percent The answer is c. In Excel, t...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1326

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

Sharp, sawhorse, wizard, and Steve. This sounds like a good choice. Would you still support it with a short contribution phase before moving jobs (if that happens)? I've read it is not simple to move traditional and real estate funds from TIAA-CREF to other brokerages (would like to consolidate acc...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1326

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

I agree with the last two posts. Put most of her $$ into TREA for now. Does she have access to any T-C mutual funds in her plan? They might have lower ERs... +3 I read this site thinking I would recommend the usual index options, but not given these choices. This BH link should help ... asset alloc...
by steve r
Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 4764

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

... I'm surprised by Rick Ferri's standard deviation estimate. I had always thought that REITS were more volatile than the typical large cap/total market. I still do... Per past data on spreadsheet on BH (Simba). 1972 to 2014 Standard deviation for both TSM and REITs is roughly 18.1. REITs had a hi...
by steve r
Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2036

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

Logically, wouldn't a country's currency tend to rise when its economy is doing well and tend to fall when its economy is doing poorly? If so, then currency movements might correlate with stock movements. I don't know if it actually works that way in practice, just suggesting a theoretical reason w...
by steve r
Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2036

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

... I think people are probably kidding themselves if they expect a minimum volatility-type fund to have significantly lower drawdowns than a total market fund .... The index for the iShares fund goes back further, with this just being a public snapshot: https://www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/MS...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)
Replies: 13
Views: 1766

Re: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)

... 1) Bring BONDS to 20% in my traditional 401K. 2) Consolidate my Vanguard Taxable to 2 Funds - VTSAX, VTIAX (Will be taking a little STG hit when selling the others there - VMVAX/VSIAX, VTMGX) 3) Leave REITs as it for now (Maybe consolidate to 1 fund later) 4) Gradually dispose individual stocks...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2036

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

... the currency hedging is just one feature of many of the global min vol fund. It's an active quant fund that loads on low-beta stocks and combinations of stocks that have low correlation, with some goals of keeping decent country and sector diversification. The main competitor is i-Shares ACWV, ...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)
Replies: 13
Views: 1766

Re: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)

If you want to move towards a "dull" three fund portfolio ... then just do it. This discussion on REITs, no REITs, this asset, that asset will only work if you are fully committed to it, through think and thin. FWIW, I own REITs, owned them for a long time now. But I know where they fit in...
by steve r
Tue Jun 02, 2015 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research on the lottery effect in stock prices
Replies: 12
Views: 1771

Re: Research on the lottery effect in stock prices

... "lottery-like" means high skew and kurtosis . What does such a distribution look like? Well, because of kurtosis the returns are usually very big or very small - extremely volatile ... The lottery effect is one of the theoretical foundations for the high risk adjusted returns of low v...
by steve r
Sat May 23, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 11607

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

Simplicity in and of itself has little merit. One would not suggest only owning one stock or one sector fund for the sake of simplicity. But what I found most insightful -- for my own journey and insight --- is the discussion is that simplicity can help avoid the behavioral traps associated with try...
by steve r
Fri May 08, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 3398

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

This being the Bogleheads forum, I'd suggest that a three fund portfolio is the best place to start and then you can deviate from there ... . +1 I too must have some money with Fidelity... and Spartan is the way to go. Trying to match Wellington is problematic on may fronts. Perhaps be comfortable ...

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