Search found 501 matches

by steve r
Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out
Replies: 94
Views: 8109

Re: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out

I regretted that I was 100% stock when I starting out. Very big mistake! KlangFool +1 100 percent equities looks good on paper and in theory, but ....... a lot can go wrong. For some it is tech stocks or employer stocks. For me, it was a complete inability to stay the course. I could have been a ca...
by steve r
Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luck with DirectTV Now?
Replies: 37
Views: 5466

Re: Luck with DirectTV Now?

I also have DTVN and it is horrible and it has now been almost a month. Need to decide soon if I am keeping. I only did one month with Fire Stick. The only reason I would keep is the lock price, but am not convinced the company promise is that solid. I mean, the same company that just released a cra...
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Quitting] Target Date fund
Replies: 18
Views: 3353

Re: [Quiting] Target Date fund

The thing you MAY be missing is human psychology. In theory, your plan may work but my personal attempts to do so did not work. I would constantly second guess, rework, reconfigure etc. It is hard for me to create a plan at one age and stick with it 3 years out let alone 30 years. I suspect my exper...
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7600

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Why are low volatility stocks more subject to term risk? ... The easiest answer that that low volatility indexes load up very heavily on utility stocks. This actually raises another interesting question .... how will low vol do compared to min var. (which limits holdings in utilities) in an upward ...
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7600

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

larryswedroe wrote:So what low vol predicts is low vol .....

Larry


+1
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7600

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

STLUTZ (study on past decades)

I saw one (I think by Haugen) by decade.

I couldn't find it quickly.

This is interesting

http://www.robeco.com/images/low-volatility-investing-a-long-term-perspective.pdf

A bit simplistic in approach -- but I believe telling.
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7600

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

I would definitely read the article posted by Larry above. Out of interest, I compared the returns of ACWI versus ACWV since the election. ACWI is up 3.2 percent ACWV is down 1.0 percent (I also looked at VMNVX which is up 2.4 percent) Two thoughts come to mind 1. Term risk just discussed. 2. The lo...
by steve r
Sat Nov 12, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience selling car to Carmax?
Replies: 82
Views: 74657

Re: Experience selling car to Carmax?

You will get about a dealer trade in value on KBB. You will have a week (maybe five days) to decide. If the car had been in an accident, it would (should) hurt the cars value. My second time I had my car ready to sell ... got it priced at CarMax, then listed it quickly for $1,200 more on AutoTrader....
by steve r
Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Least expensive iPhone
Replies: 65
Views: 5871

Re: Least expensive iPhone

5S on Consumer Cellular is $160 NEW with one year Apple warranty. That is the least expensive NEW iPhone.

https://www.consumercellular.com/cart/phones/options/1/519
by steve r
Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?
Replies: 4
Views: 565

Re: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?

Thanks. For me, (I suspect but do not know) it was not so much TIAA as it was my employer dial back on some expenses.
by steve r
Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?
Replies: 4
Views: 565

403b FEE changes - do I have options?

I HAD a great thing in my 403b ... Vanguard Index funds. So great that when my employer decided to reduce the number of plan sponsors (TIAA and FIDELITY) to just one I decided to move my Fidelity money to TIAA. Fast forward a bit, and TIAA/my employer have a new deal, I still have index funds but no...
by steve r
Mon May 16, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 123
Views: 18994

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

I am assuming 100,000 loan. 30 years at 3.25 percent, monthly payment is 435.21. After 15 years you owe $61,939 15 year mortgage at 2.75 percent your payments are $678.62 If the differences of $243.41 is saved EVERY MONTH, what rate would you need to earn to have $61,939 in 15 years? (Bankrate, savi...
by steve r
Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 2558

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

Hi Sam, Any thoughts on whether or not these four should be on the short-list for investigation for people interested in Minimum Volatility? (Vanguard's is not an ETF of course) VMNVX, Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility, expense 0.21%, roughly 50/50 US/non-US USMV, iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatili...
by steve r
Sun Apr 10, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 2558

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

Also, don't forget that many minimum volatility strategies have some duration risk. All other things equal, they tend to do well when interest rates fall and suffer when interest rates rise. If you want bond exposure in a taxable account, minimum volatility funds can be a reasonable choice. Good po...
by steve r
Sun Apr 10, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 2558

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

I certainly wouldn't be looking to use these ETF's with anything other than a buy and hold strategy. David, I am in this space as a buy and hold strategy for many years now. (first ACWV, then VMNVX when it came out) I suggest that you do your homework. A good start is: https://www.bogleheads.org/wi...
by steve r
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 20th Century Stereo in a 21st Century World
Replies: 71
Views: 7948

Re: 20th Century Stereo in a 21st Century World

I have not read ALL the other comments Go to eBay and find a Bluetooth device with either RCA jacks or whatever plugs you used. Then, put all your music on your phone or other Bluetooth device. Bluetooth sounds scary - it isn't. Don't have one, get an old iPod or old phone. You can keep all you new ...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7600

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

steve R Just check the p/e ratios of the low vol funds and compare them to value funds of say DFA. They used to be quite similar, no more, at last I checked Larry If you run a backtest on low-vol you will notice its outperformance really kicks in once the ETFs came out; and the overall performance ...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7600

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

I have been a converter since early 2015 after I read all the research I could find. Thus, I have invested exclusively in low volatility equity ETFs. My global equity diversification is: 45% USMV (instead of SPY), 45% EFAV (instead of EFA), 10% EEMV (instead of EEM). And now during the current mark...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7600

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

For 85 years, low volatility investing has lead to reduced risk and higher risk adjusted returns. Period. This fact has been written about now since the 1970s and the pattern continues. Moreover, I suspect that it is hard for this space to get crowded, as crowds increase volatility -- thus changing ...
by steve r
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 14614

Re: Rebalancing, another study

...And so on. Personally I found m to be a lot more straightforward while looking at very similiar schemes. Not thrilled about the ~90 year time period in one chart (or only the 1989+ in the others) but it is the best paper I have seen. I saw this paper a while back and recalled liking it as well. ...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 14614

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Part of the discussion (on page 3 of this thread) is that the new study compares to income placement (not annual -- which is viewed as the usual in the literature). The study has two justifications for doing so. First, the second figure shows that annual (or quarterly or monthly ) rebalancing under...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 14614

Re: Rebalancing, another study

The idea of regularly scheduled rebalancing based on a calendar makes little sense to be ... except for the advantage of eliminating (bad) behavioral issues. Many investors have behavioral issues, when it comes to rebalancing. I think that it would be a mistake to ignore this aspect. As any claimed...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 14614

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... I recreated Daranyani's portfolio (not using the same exact sources per asset class though), then simulated his time period of choice (1992-2004), and his 10-yrs rolling periods. This is indeed a peculiar time, where the no-rebalancing technique is systematically inferior to the various rebalan...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 14614

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... I recreated Daranyani's portfolio (not using the same exact sources per asset class though), then simulated his time period of choice (1992-2004), and his 10-yrs rolling periods. This is indeed a peculiar time, where the no-rebalancing technique is systematically inferior to the various rebalan...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 14614

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... a) I was surprised how closely rebalancing using only dividends kept one to their target allocations over time. ... b) I think the study is also consistent with the overall concept that there is shorter term momentum and longer-term mean reversion in returns ... I'd still stick with the view th...
by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 10009

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 Having discussions on how unfair the system is pointless. We aren't going to change it. Heck I don't think 1 is even right. Last time I checked Harvard claimed the cost to educate 1 student was about 70k. Hence all undergrads were subsidized and it is just a question...
by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 10009

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 I do not see how this is in any way different than minimizing taxes or getting the best deal you can on a home or auto. Imagine going to an auto dealer and having the price you negotiate depend on income and lifetime savings. I would feel 100 percent differently if :...
by steve r
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase
Replies: 5
Views: 474

Re: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase

I am having a similar struggle lately. I like my asset allocation -- have been sticking with it for years and fully believe I can stick with it for years to come. Intellectually, I can come up with a compelling case for my AA and why I use only low cost funds and mostly index funds. As such, I can s...
by steve r
Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?
Replies: 7
Views: 1945

Re: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?

I am doing something similar. Conservative by lowering debt. Aggressive on asset allocation. That said, I think 15 percent bonds is already very aggressive based on standard formulas like age in bonds or age - 10 in bonds. I would NOT suggest being MORE aggressive. The standard formula likely assume...
by steve r
Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low beta, low volatility
Replies: 28
Views: 2899

Re: Low beta, low volatility

Beliavsky .... The right conclusion IMO is that you will get less risk, and IMO likely less return. Now with high beta I think you can conclude you'll get high risk and likely poor returns. Larry IMO this is the right conclusion (I am in this space). Couple questions -- and opinions are fine 1) Wha...
by steve r
Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is a car warranty package worth it?
Replies: 46
Views: 3076

Re: Is a car warranty package worth it?

My thought is this ... even if you use $2,000 in repairs ... Subaru and the dealer probably STILL profit off you. That is to say what cost you $2,000 for repairs probably costs them a fraction of that. Should you cancel? Probably. Is the case to cancel a slam dunk? Hard to say. If you prefer getting...
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1720

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Continuing my previous post (playing with data on high yields).

High yields have fat tails and a high kurtosis. High than totals stock market, S&P500, and quite a few other indexes. Not sure what I expected prior to doing the calculations, but I would guess this is about as expected.

Steve
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1720

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I love your summary .... Steve I can't find the data, but my intuition says junk bonds have negative skew. Consider that they are both callable (limited upside) and carry the potential to default (high downside). You are right based on back tested annual (Simba) dated 1985 to 2014. My i...
by steve r
Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1720

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I would say it is a must read for anyone invested in the low vol. space. Tentatively, I would say it offers a partial explanation of why major asset classes with greater measured risk offer greater returns, but not always assets within such asset classes. .... penny stocks (positive) vs ...
by steve r
Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?
Replies: 15
Views: 617

Re: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?

January.
If the market goes down during the year, you can have a redo ... (reverse the re characterization) and try again next January.
by steve r
Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1937

Re: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

Curious if any Bogleheads see any value in Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMNVX). If the following claim is true, it would be useful for conservative investors seeking global diversification: "It is reasonable for investors to expect, on average, for a minimum volatility fund to ou...
by steve r
Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 1871

Re: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?

I looked at the time period that goes as far back for all 4 funds, which is approximately 9 years. I found the following: #1 performer - PKW - Buyback index ETF - concentrating on companies that are partaking in large amounts of share buybacks - Total return 96.78% #2 performer - FLVCX - Fidelity L...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 9650

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

. "Over the long-haul what matters is factor exposure and expense" Minimum volatility is just a different combination of factors. For example, the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility factor loads for the full period the index series is available: MSCI USA Minimum Volatility: June 1988 to May 2015...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 9650

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

...I can manage the total portfolio volatility by adjusting the stock/bond ratio. So in this scenario, picking lower volatility, lower return equities is more or less than same as just adding more bonds to the mix with the higher volatility stocks. +1 It is what I do. The trick is how much less bon...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 9650

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

A way to look at this space is that it is the most volatile stocks that underperform. History has shown this. Managers do not have to predict the least volatile stocks, only avoid the most volatile ones. But that's not what factor-based investing, nor this fund, does. This post was in response to w...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 9650

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

According to standard CAPM theory there is a risk/reward tradeoff in all markets. The higher the risk, the greater the expected reward and the lower the risk, the lower the expected reward. Academic studies looking specifically at low volatility stocks have shown this basic assumption to be false i...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 9650

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Stocks are still going to sting in a downturn, even these ones. Just possibly a little meaningfully less. You can check various low volatility indexes to see what might have happened in 2008-2009 in theory. But nowhere are you getting diversification of the likes you see with high-quality bonds. By...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 9650

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

If most managers can't pick stocks well enough to beat the relevant index, why should one believe they will be any better in predicting what stocks will be low volatility? If one wants to lower volatility, just reduce equity exposure. Simple, cheap, no manager risk, proven over time. A way to look ...
by steve r
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 13711

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Did small-caps outperform the total market since 1926? Yes. Did they if you remove the single period 1975-1983? No. If they did have higher return, did they have higher risk-adjusted return? Probably not ... I have read this "fact" a thousand times ... and yet .. according to Jack Bogle ....
by steve r
Sun Jun 21, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New to Golf
Replies: 45
Views: 6019

Re: New to Golf

1) lessons 2) rock bottom golf has a complete set with putter wedges driver woods irons and hybrids and bag for 200 (Ray cook) .. If u have more to spend I would go with Adams Speedline set for 299 (price not listed). This is very good set. U may find a used deal for less. This assumes you are avera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 2322

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Sometimes the triple leveraged ETF can help. Its strange behavior will give you more gain if the investment goes up steadily, and reduce losses if it goes down steadily. Right. Tripple daily cannot go below zero. Tripple with borrowing can. This is relative to levered with margin. Obviously, levera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA-Cref Alternatives
Replies: 11
Views: 1701

Re: TIAA-Cref Alternatives

Vanguard will minimize fees. Their target funds or life cycle funds will minimize effort and thinking going forward. One fund and done.
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 2322

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Understanding the math may help. (it helped me) If, over the course of a year Nat Gas has 120 days up one percent and 120 days down one percent, what do you think will happen to the daily tripled levered etf? a) break even b) lose about 5 percent c) lose over ten percent The answer is c. In Excel, t...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1494

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

Sharp, sawhorse, wizard, and Steve. This sounds like a good choice. Would you still support it with a short contribution phase before moving jobs (if that happens)? I've read it is not simple to move traditional and real estate funds from TIAA-CREF to other brokerages (would like to consolidate acc...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1494

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

I agree with the last two posts. Put most of her $$ into TREA for now. Does she have access to any T-C mutual funds in her plan? They might have lower ERs... +3 I read this site thinking I would recommend the usual index options, but not given these choices. This BH link should help ... asset alloc...