Search found 476 matches

by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 6694

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 Having discussions on how unfair the system is pointless. We aren't going to change it. Heck I don't think 1 is even right. Last time I checked Harvard claimed the cost to educate 1 student was about 70k. Hence all undergrads were subsidized and it is just a question...
by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 6694

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 I do not see how this is in any way different than minimizing taxes or getting the best deal you can on a home or auto. Imagine going to an auto dealer and having the price you negotiate depend on income and lifetime savings. I would feel 100 percent differently if :...
by steve r
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase
Replies: 5
Views: 317

Re: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase

I am having a similar struggle lately. I like my asset allocation -- have been sticking with it for years and fully believe I can stick with it for years to come. Intellectually, I can come up with a compelling case for my AA and why I use only low cost funds and mostly index funds. As such, I can s...
by steve r
Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?
Replies: 7
Views: 1611

Re: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?

I am doing something similar. Conservative by lowering debt. Aggressive on asset allocation. That said, I think 15 percent bonds is already very aggressive based on standard formulas like age in bonds or age - 10 in bonds. I would NOT suggest being MORE aggressive. The standard formula likely assume...
by steve r
Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low beta, low volatility
Replies: 28
Views: 2071

Re: Low beta, low volatility

Beliavsky .... The right conclusion IMO is that you will get less risk, and IMO likely less return. Now with high beta I think you can conclude you'll get high risk and likely poor returns. Larry IMO this is the right conclusion (I am in this space). Couple questions -- and opinions are fine 1) Wha...
by steve r
Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is a car warranty package worth it?
Replies: 46
Views: 2035

Re: Is a car warranty package worth it?

My thought is this ... even if you use $2,000 in repairs ... Subaru and the dealer probably STILL profit off you. That is to say what cost you $2,000 for repairs probably costs them a fraction of that. Should you cancel? Probably. Is the case to cancel a slam dunk? Hard to say. If you prefer getting...
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1402

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Continuing my previous post (playing with data on high yields).

High yields have fat tails and a high kurtosis. High than totals stock market, S&P500, and quite a few other indexes. Not sure what I expected prior to doing the calculations, but I would guess this is about as expected.

Steve
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1402

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I love your summary .... Steve I can't find the data, but my intuition says junk bonds have negative skew. Consider that they are both callable (limited upside) and carry the potential to default (high downside). You are right based on back tested annual (Simba) dated 1985 to 2014. My i...
by steve r
Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1402

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I would say it is a must read for anyone invested in the low vol. space. Tentatively, I would say it offers a partial explanation of why major asset classes with greater measured risk offer greater returns, but not always assets within such asset classes. .... penny stocks (positive) vs ...
by steve r
Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?
Replies: 15
Views: 395

Re: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?

January.
If the market goes down during the year, you can have a redo ... (reverse the re characterization) and try again next January.
by steve r
Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1213

Re: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

Curious if any Bogleheads see any value in Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMNVX). If the following claim is true, it would be useful for conservative investors seeking global diversification: "It is reasonable for investors to expect, on average, for a minimum volatility fund to ou...
by steve r
Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 1557

Re: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?

I looked at the time period that goes as far back for all 4 funds, which is approximately 9 years. I found the following: #1 performer - PKW - Buyback index ETF - concentrating on companies that are partaking in large amounts of share buybacks - Total return 96.78% #2 performer - FLVCX - Fidelity L...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 7447

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

. "Over the long-haul what matters is factor exposure and expense" Minimum volatility is just a different combination of factors. For example, the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility factor loads for the full period the index series is available: MSCI USA Minimum Volatility: June 1988 to May 2015...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 7447

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

...I can manage the total portfolio volatility by adjusting the stock/bond ratio. So in this scenario, picking lower volatility, lower return equities is more or less than same as just adding more bonds to the mix with the higher volatility stocks. +1 It is what I do. The trick is how much less bon...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 7447

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

A way to look at this space is that it is the most volatile stocks that underperform. History has shown this. Managers do not have to predict the least volatile stocks, only avoid the most volatile ones. But that's not what factor-based investing, nor this fund, does. This post was in response to w...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 7447

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

According to standard CAPM theory there is a risk/reward tradeoff in all markets. The higher the risk, the greater the expected reward and the lower the risk, the lower the expected reward. Academic studies looking specifically at low volatility stocks have shown this basic assumption to be false i...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 7447

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Stocks are still going to sting in a downturn, even these ones. Just possibly a little meaningfully less. You can check various low volatility indexes to see what might have happened in 2008-2009 in theory. But nowhere are you getting diversification of the likes you see with high-quality bonds. By...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 7447

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

If most managers can't pick stocks well enough to beat the relevant index, why should one believe they will be any better in predicting what stocks will be low volatility? If one wants to lower volatility, just reduce equity exposure. Simple, cheap, no manager risk, proven over time. A way to look ...
by steve r
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 8308

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Did small-caps outperform the total market since 1926? Yes. Did they if you remove the single period 1975-1983? No. If they did have higher return, did they have higher risk-adjusted return? Probably not ... I have read this "fact" a thousand times ... and yet .. according to Jack Bogle ....
by steve r
Sun Jun 21, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New to Golf
Replies: 45
Views: 5168

Re: New to Golf

1) lessons 2) rock bottom golf has a complete set with putter wedges driver woods irons and hybrids and bag for 200 (Ray cook) .. If u have more to spend I would go with Adams Speedline set for 299 (price not listed). This is very good set. U may find a used deal for less. This assumes you are avera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 1846

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Sometimes the triple leveraged ETF can help. Its strange behavior will give you more gain if the investment goes up steadily, and reduce losses if it goes down steadily. Right. Tripple daily cannot go below zero. Tripple with borrowing can. This is relative to levered with margin. Obviously, levera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA-Cref Alternatives
Replies: 11
Views: 1295

Re: TIAA-Cref Alternatives

Vanguard will minimize fees. Their target funds or life cycle funds will minimize effort and thinking going forward. One fund and done.
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 1846

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Understanding the math may help. (it helped me) If, over the course of a year Nat Gas has 120 days up one percent and 120 days down one percent, what do you think will happen to the daily tripled levered etf? a) break even b) lose about 5 percent c) lose over ten percent The answer is c. In Excel, t...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1176

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

Sharp, sawhorse, wizard, and Steve. This sounds like a good choice. Would you still support it with a short contribution phase before moving jobs (if that happens)? I've read it is not simple to move traditional and real estate funds from TIAA-CREF to other brokerages (would like to consolidate acc...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1176

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

I agree with the last two posts. Put most of her $$ into TREA for now. Does she have access to any T-C mutual funds in her plan? They might have lower ERs... +3 I read this site thinking I would recommend the usual index options, but not given these choices. This BH link should help ... asset alloc...
by steve r
Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 4250

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

... I'm surprised by Rick Ferri's standard deviation estimate. I had always thought that REITS were more volatile than the typical large cap/total market. I still do... Per past data on spreadsheet on BH (Simba). 1972 to 2014 Standard deviation for both TSM and REITs is roughly 18.1. REITs had a hi...
by steve r
Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1839

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

Logically, wouldn't a country's currency tend to rise when its economy is doing well and tend to fall when its economy is doing poorly? If so, then currency movements might correlate with stock movements. I don't know if it actually works that way in practice, just suggesting a theoretical reason w...
by steve r
Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1839

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

... I think people are probably kidding themselves if they expect a minimum volatility-type fund to have significantly lower drawdowns than a total market fund .... The index for the iShares fund goes back further, with this just being a public snapshot: https://www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/MS...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)
Replies: 13
Views: 1672

Re: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)

... 1) Bring BONDS to 20% in my traditional 401K. 2) Consolidate my Vanguard Taxable to 2 Funds - VTSAX, VTIAX (Will be taking a little STG hit when selling the others there - VMVAX/VSIAX, VTMGX) 3) Leave REITs as it for now (Maybe consolidate to 1 fund later) 4) Gradually dispose individual stocks...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1839

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

... the currency hedging is just one feature of many of the global min vol fund. It's an active quant fund that loads on low-beta stocks and combinations of stocks that have low correlation, with some goals of keeping decent country and sector diversification. The main competitor is i-Shares ACWV, ...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)
Replies: 13
Views: 1672

Re: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)

If you want to move towards a "dull" three fund portfolio ... then just do it. This discussion on REITs, no REITs, this asset, that asset will only work if you are fully committed to it, through think and thin. FWIW, I own REITs, owned them for a long time now. But I know where they fit in...
by steve r
Tue Jun 02, 2015 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research on the lottery effect in stock prices
Replies: 12
Views: 1639

Re: Research on the lottery effect in stock prices

... "lottery-like" means high skew and kurtosis . What does such a distribution look like? Well, because of kurtosis the returns are usually very big or very small - extremely volatile ... The lottery effect is one of the theoretical foundations for the high risk adjusted returns of low v...
by steve r
Sat May 23, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 10816

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

Simplicity in and of itself has little merit. One would not suggest only owning one stock or one sector fund for the sake of simplicity. But what I found most insightful -- for my own journey and insight --- is the discussion is that simplicity can help avoid the behavioral traps associated with try...
by steve r
Fri May 08, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 2731

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

This being the Bogleheads forum, I'd suggest that a three fund portfolio is the best place to start and then you can deviate from there ... . +1 I too must have some money with Fidelity... and Spartan is the way to go. Trying to match Wellington is problematic on may fronts. Perhaps be comfortable ...
by steve r
Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 242

Re: Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?

retiredjg wrote:If you plan to convert it anyway, there is no need to wait until next year. Just roll the pension into tIRA and convert. Or roll the pension directly into Roth IRA. The tax will be the same either way.

I thought, perhaps wrongly, you can do one conversion per calendar year.
by steve r
Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 242

Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?

I got good news today. A decade ago, my wife did a long term substitute teaching. Evidently, $1,000 was contributed to a pension fund that she is now eligible to receive. It can be: 1) rolled over to an IRA or 2) withdrawn with a ten percent penalty My preference is to avoid the $100 penalty. But, a...
by steve r
Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3444

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

Anyone here have thoughts about SPLV (SPDR's take on this theme)? Over its history it has delivered on its promise. It was the first of these funds to market. Performance-wise it has been very similar to USMV (my personal favorite in this space). It's ER is .25%, which is the main reason I don't us...
by steve r
Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I include a REIT fund with a .77 ER in my portfolio?
Replies: 5
Views: 946

Re: should I include a REIT fund with a .77 ER in my portfol

I own this fund. It is NOT a REIT or an REIT fund (index), rather an individual annuity that owns a lot of real estate products around the globe. It provides wonderful diversification. The expense ratio is not an apples to apples comparison. A REIT fund has an expense ratio to hold various REITs lik...
by steve r
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 83
Views: 9021

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

Given your fixed income portion of your retirement is unlikely to earn 5.25 percent, I would go 15 year mortgage and crank up your stock holdings a touch. This assumes one can afford the higher payments. http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/savings/simple-savings-calculator.aspx steve r, This is whe...
by steve r
Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 83
Views: 9021

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

TS, You are making this way too complicated. It is very simple. 1) Can your investment return more than 5.25% over this 15 years period?? A) If the answer is yes, take the 30 years mortgage. B) During this 15 years period, if the return is lower than 5.25%, aka you changed your mind. You can prepay...
by steve r
Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 83
Views: 9021

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

The breakeven point is 5.25%.. So, can you investment return 5.25%?? If you take 15 years mortgage, after 15 years, you owed nothing. If you take 30 years mortgage, after 15 years, you owed 253K. ... If your investment return greater than 5.25%, you make money. Or else, your don't. KlangFool The bi...
by steve r
Sun Mar 15, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 32
Views: 3168

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

My 30yr FRM is at 3.49%. My 64/36 portfolio asset return average about 7.1%. So, I am not in hurry to pay off the mortgage loan. So, where is the interest rate saving?? I made 3.5% from the loan amount. ... KlangFool The OP is not borrowing at 3.75 percent to invest in stocks. The OP is borrowing t...
by steve r
Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 32
Views: 3168

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

Kids. Yes, they are expensive. But having a house paid for pre-college will be a nice help. steve, Why? I have kids going to college in a few years. Housing loan interest rate is much cheaper than student loan by a few percentage point. 30 yr FRM give a person that kind of flexibility. Interest rat...
by steve r
Sun Mar 15, 2015 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 32
Views: 3168

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

I do not think we have enough information. Is your income stable/secure(like a teacher)? If NO, I would go with the 30 year. Is your income high relative to payments? If yes. I would go with the 15 year. You can afford it. See MarcBarb's math. Every year with a 15 year mortgage is $1,000 - $2,000 mo...
by steve r
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Cellular increases Minutes, Texts, & Data
Replies: 14
Views: 1213

Re: Consumer Cellular increases Minutes, Texts, & Data

A little sight of hand on data Data overage on the 3 gb plan now increased to 25 cents. It had been 1.5 cents. It is possible, if I am not careful and switch plans mid month, this can cost me a lot more. Before, each addition GB cost $15, now $250 (if not careful). So thanks for pointing this out to...
by steve r
Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone know a source showing avg. real wage in 70's vs today
Replies: 19
Views: 2326

Re: Anyone know a source showing avg. real wage in 70's vs t

FRED The Federal Reserve Board of St Louis complied over 100,000 data series http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/COMPRNFB They have real wage data back to 1947.https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=158710 Real hourly wages are up nearly 50 percent since the 1970s. They h...
by steve r
Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 43
Views: 4656

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

Since USMV is the only one of these funds I invest in currently, I do watch it's beta. iShares has pretty consistently reported it as being around .8. Backtesting has claimed that this number should be a little lower--we'll see after the next bear market. Based on these numbers, I've been treating ...
by steve r
Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 43
Views: 4656

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

.... it looks like MSCI Global Minimum Volatility uses some kind of model (GEM2) to estimate or forecast covariances. Then a practical implantation has constraints like min/max weights (0.05/1.5 pct), sector and country weights, etc. So it becomes a constrained optimization problem, which is going ...
by steve r
Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 43
Views: 4656

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

Global Minimum Variance Portfolio (GMVP) is straight out of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). But rather than finding the Tangency Portfolio (TP), which has maximum Sharpe slope, GMVP is the tip of the Markowitz bullet. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Markowitz_frontier.jpg Finding ...
by steve r
Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 43
Views: 4656

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

I've argued in the past that for the person who holds, say, a 90/10 portfolio and wants less risk, the best way to do that by far is to add bonds as opposed to low volatility stocks. I suspect this is more true for someone who views risk as volatility than for someone most concerned with shortfall ...

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