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by staythecourse
Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's dumbest investment advice
Replies: 32
Views: 3506

Re: Today's dumbest investment advice

You guys are much smarter then me. Is this dumb advice? I have no clue. My response would be what does the data say? I am POSITIVE if you look back throughout history the share price does not fall EXACTLY the same as the dividend. That is pretty obvious looking at market movements. Without talking ...
by staythecourse
Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gravy Train Departed?
Replies: 50
Views: 4185

Re: The Gravy Train Departed?

What's that quote about the most expensive words being "this time it's different".... :wink: One of my favorite investing quotes. Great quote from historical Sir John Templeton (paraphrasing) The four most expensive words in the english language is: this time is different. Good luck. p.s....
by staythecourse
Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's dumbest investment advice
Replies: 32
Views: 3506

Re: Today's dumbest investment advice

You guys are much smarter then me. Is this dumb advice? I have no clue. My response would be what does the data say? I am POSITIVE if you look back throughout history the share price does not fall EXACTLY the same as the dividend. That is pretty obvious looking at market movements. Without talking ...
by staythecourse
Sat Feb 06, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's dumbest investment advice
Replies: 32
Views: 3506

Re: Today's dumbest investment advice

You guys are much smarter then me. Is this dumb advice? I have no clue. My response would be what does the data say? I am POSITIVE if you look back throughout history the share price does not fall EXACTLY the same as the dividend. That is pretty obvious looking at market movements. Without talking a...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Simple Is Still a Hard Sell"
Replies: 24
Views: 4513

Re: "Why Simple Is Still a Hard Sell"

I am a bit confused is simplicity in reference to holding as few assets in a portfolio to make it easier to manage OR are we talking about simplicity as in passive management makes one a better investor? Is the goal of investing to hold less funds so it is "easier" to manage or to attempt ...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads referenced
Replies: 80
Views: 6683

Re: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads reference

I am not going to debate the other issues, but must say I am even more impressed "boglehead" is an adjective those in the industry are aware of and even more vindicated someone like Ackman calls it "intelligent". It must be satisfying for the likes of Taylor and those who started...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Where is YDNAL?
Replies: 49
Views: 6274

Re: Where is YDNAL?

Why in the world would Bogleheads have banned sscritic? Not to divert further, but if this is true then all the ban did was weaken the collective knowledge on this board. No one knows social security better then him/her. Since we are going to memory lane I miss "Bobsnotmyname" or somethin...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?
Replies: 44
Views: 5618

Re: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?

Interesting question and one I am concerned about as well. Anyone, including Vanguard, can use all sorts of justifications of changing allocations to subassets, but doesn't change the fact it is active management. The bigger question is why. Are they doing it as performance chasing or trying to impr...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 26, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Properly Assessing Public Schools
Replies: 55
Views: 3054

Re: Properly Assessing Public Schools

Op, I don't think sites like great schools and school digger are very helpful, at least in my area. The problem is not just finding data, but interpreting it. The data is easy to interpret. Almost any data that is put forward is a measure of the socio-economic status of the parents. It's unclear wh...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 26, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Properly Assessing Public Schools
Replies: 55
Views: 3054

Re: Properly Assessing Public Schools

This is one of my big questions in life. I have a 3 yr. old and <1yr. and have had many discussions about this topic. The answer is likely based on what the question is being asked. If one is asking about academics the only level playing field is the state exam every public school has to take and th...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Where is YDNAL?
Replies: 49
Views: 6274

Re: Where is YDNAL?

Why in the world would Bogleheads have banned sscritic? Not to divert further, but if this is true then all the ban did was weaken the collective knowledge on this board. No one knows social security better then him/her. Since we are going to memory lane I miss "Bobsnotmyname" or somethin...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 100% stock thread!
Replies: 33
Views: 2806

Re: Another 100% stock thread!

As to the OP I have done similar data crunching back to 1929 and found: 1. Stock almost always do better then those holding bonds. Those success rates increase over longer time periods. 2. When heavy equity portfolio under perform it is at worst around 20%. So it isn't like your retirement blows up ...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 100% stock thread!
Replies: 33
Views: 2806

Re: Another 100% stock thread!

Watty wrote:
staythecourse wrote:(p.s. It is a good sign you want to do this while the market is getting trounced and not during an upswing)


This is not even close to a trouncing yet.


Let me rephrase during a market downturn.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 100% stock thread!
Replies: 33
Views: 2806

Re: Another 100% stock thread!

I have written before folks should only consider 100% stocks if they can first meet the below criteria: 1. Recession/ bear market proof job. 2. Able to stay the course. 3. Long time horizon (>10yrs) 4. No need for liquidity during the time horizon 5. No need for the money before the end of that tim...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 100% stock thread!
Replies: 33
Views: 2806

Re: Another 100% stock thread!

I have written before folks should only consider 100% stocks if they can first meet the below criteria: 1. Recession/ bear market proof job. 2. Able to stay the course. 3. Long time horizon (>10yrs) 4. No need for liquidity during the time horizon 5. No need for the money before the end of that time...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Example of why to favor Treasury-only bond funds
Replies: 13
Views: 2013

Re: Example of why to favor Treasury-only bond funds

This fits in the who cares category. One's bond allocation should be consistent with one's needed duration as the MOST important criteria. Who cares if one does better then the other in a time period shorter then your needed duration? Also, if you did needed the money in the last 1 month then anythi...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stats on Americans 'cutting the cable' ?
Replies: 42
Views: 3574

Re: Stats on Americans 'cutting the cable' ?

I did it a couple of years ago and it is liberating. Anyone who likes to buck the system will love it. There is nothing better then telling folks who come over that we don't have cable. The look on their face is priceless. I think I would have gotten the same look if I would have killed someone. Goo...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I hate ETFs!!! [Lessons learned from market not going as expected]
Replies: 68
Views: 6482

Re: I hate ETFs!!! [Lessons learned from market not going as expected]

Apologize in advance if I am repeating something already touched on, but thought it is an interesting point for the younger investors to understand. The OP is blaming ETF's for something he/ she should be blaming themselves for in this situation. The spread on VWO is a whole cent or 2 so it is VERY ...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The sky is falling!
Replies: 14
Views: 1502

Re: The sky is falling!

For the long horizon investor who cares if the sky is falling or the market is going through the stratosphere. It simply does not matter 20 yrs. later. The only prices that matter are the one you buy at (which you know) and the one you sell at (unknown). Since you don't know what that price is best ...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 5176

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

I always have the urge to change my investment plan so as to sell underperforming assets and buy overperforming ones. It always seems so rational! There's always such a good reason to do it! It's taken me decades to figure out that these urges are nothing but lizard-brain emotional attempts to avoi...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 5176

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

Who cares what anyone else thinks and I am sorry that includes Jack Bogle. I respect him a TON, but he has not done anything to tell me he is any better then guessing the future then anyone else with a crystal ball and that includes the psychic down the street. To listen to any "expert' it only...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Insane Notice / Counter Offer Situation
Replies: 61
Views: 5092

Re: Insane Notice / Counter Offer Situation

I plan to submit my resignation letter to HR this morning, and to try to work out my 3 weeks in good faith. I have an emergency fund. If they term me early it won't be a problem. Good move. Be prepared to be escorted out of the office today. Just review your contract and/ or company handbook to fin...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'd rather stick than go to cash, but.
Replies: 19
Views: 2364

Re: I'd rather stick than go to cash, but.

Investing really is as simple as below in your situation: Find out how much you need to survive, i.e. NEED per year. Find out how much gauranteed, principle stable investment dollars you make per year (SS, DB benefit pensions, CD, MM, short term bond funds, TIPS, I bonds, etc...) Subtract the 2nd nu...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your action plan?
Replies: 43
Views: 2465

Re: What is your action plan?

My action plan: Yesterday I went "storm riding" with a friend and our kids on Mt Hood. Great great skiing. Great moments to cherish! Today I am flying out of town to help my parents, who are ill. We'll be cooking favorite foods, taking them for walks, working on a family tree, sharing mem...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: purchase REO property advice [Real Estate Owned]
Replies: 3
Views: 383

Re: purchase REO property advice

Looking for some of your thoughts and ​I thought I'd tap the collective wisdom of this site. Here's the situation.... Looking to purchase an REO property. Buyer submits offer to purchase and signs bank's as-is addendum. Offer is not accepted. Months later, buyer submits new offer to purchase and do...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buyin' today?
Replies: 127
Views: 10657

Re: Who's buyin' today?

I'm 100% invested in 100% equities so nothing more to add.

I did TLH today which as good.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 14, 2016 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: early retirement, alternative lifestyles, etc, with kids
Replies: 9
Views: 1543

Re: early retirement, alternative lifestyles, etc, with kids

How about switching to locums work? I'm in the same situation as you just several years younger. I ended up going on my own in a solo practice just for this reason. When the time comes I can easily cut back whenever I want. If there is a week I don't want to work more then a day just block of my da...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 14, 2016 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: early retirement, alternative lifestyles, etc, with kids
Replies: 9
Views: 1543

Re: early retirement, alternative lifestyles, etc, with kids

How about switching to locums work? I'm in the same situation as you just several years younger. I ended up going on my own in a solo practice just for this reason. When the time comes I can easily cut back whenever I want. If there is a week I don't want to work more then a day just block of my day...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]
Replies: 29
Views: 3267

Re: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX)

As long as it is your play great move!! If your going to throw darts at the wall it makes sense to aim for the "likely" RTM to occur. I am sure it is pure rationalization on my part, but there is no reason precious metals can't be down forever as they are not a needed material for manufact...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Design and Implementation
Replies: 10
Views: 829

Re: Portfolio Design and Implementation

Not gospel, but my general rule is not to add to asset class that did well last year or this year nor subtract from one that did poorly the year before or this year. That is simple rule of thumb to protect you from performance chasing. Now if you wanted to add to a loser then I would say go for it a...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 35802

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

Does it matter if he did well or not in this situation. It isn't like he/ she is the index case of the first person ever trying a form of active management. The data strongly supports active management being a loser's game in the long run and that is all that should matter to the long term investor....
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just lost $200,000 last week. Please help me.
Replies: 82
Views: 13729

Re: I just lost $200,000 last week. Please help me.

To the OP: sorry this happened to you. As one of most conservative investors on the forum, I would suggest that you don't really make any more mistake with the rest of your assets. I would get ladderred 10 year CDs, buy a couple of deferred annuities, and continue to work to make up for the loss. T...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just lost $200,000 last week. Please help me.
Replies: 82
Views: 13729

Re: I just lost $200,000 last week. Please help me.

My advice would be to give you money to a low fee advisor to manage. Personally, I think it is MUCH easier to gain wealth in America then to hold on to it. You did a great job making it, but see TOO MANY red flags to make me think you have any shot at protecting you wealth over the next 20+ years. N...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 05, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: what a terrible performance!!
Replies: 79
Views: 7536

Re: VWO: what a terrible performance!!

These are the times it brings up a couple of my favorite lines from Dr. Bernstein from his books. Paraphrasing both lines: 1. Sometimes being diversified makes you feel like you are driving down the wrong way of a one way street. 2. Sometimes it feels like you are throwing money down a rat hole. Per...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you keep your young kids busy/occupied?
Replies: 37
Views: 2753

Re: How do you keep your young kids busy/occupied?

This seems simple and perhaps mean, but I ignore them. It's amazing what they start to play on their own when you aren't their to entertain them. I would second that. It is amazing what little ones will do if left alone. I sometimes think kids get bored too often as they are used to our generation ...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation: how low is "low?" A simple criterion.
Replies: 28
Views: 1544

Re: Correlation: how low is "low?" A simple criterion.

Nisprius Few things First, we know that correlations aren't stable over time and thus we not only should consider the long term correlations, but also understand when the correlations tend to rise and fall. Second, correlations aren't the only thing that matters, volatility matters as well. So it n...
by staythecourse
Sat Dec 26, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking Net Worth, insightful and motivating
Replies: 45
Views: 4074

Re: Tracking Net Worth, insightful and motivating

Have there really been "downs" since 2010.... had you tracked this in 2008-2009 would you have liked to see the monthly numbers? Agreed. For any investor it would have only been good news if they watched their net worth last 5 yrs. As long as one was passive the number would only go up an...
by staythecourse
Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns
Replies: 118
Views: 9504

Re: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns

Not to steal the thread, but I am wondering if white coat investor or others can tell me the data to support using "cap rate" in future prediction of returns of real estate investments? I know folks like to use that term to make themselves sound scientific in assessing real estate venture...
by staythecourse
Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns
Replies: 118
Views: 9504

Re: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns

Not to steal the thread, but I am wondering if white coat investor or others can tell me the data to support using "cap rate" in future prediction of returns of real estate investments? I know folks like to use that term to make themselves sound scientific in assessing real estate venture...
by staythecourse
Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?
Replies: 28
Views: 2816

Re: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?

If he knew what would do the best then why does he diversify? Just put all your eggs in those couple (china and India) if you are so sure? Good luck. Who knows stocks will return more than bonds? Or that bonds will return more than cash? .. Malkiel? Your 3 year old? In order to invest, we have to m...
by staythecourse
Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?
Replies: 28
Views: 2816

Re: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?

My answer is who knows and who cares. Just because he is academic guru does NOT mean his crystal ball is any shinier then my 3 yr. old at home. He has NO clue what will do better going forward then I do. The only difference is I admit I have no clue and he keeps pushing the idea he knows based on hi...
by staythecourse
Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns
Replies: 118
Views: 9504

Re: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns

Not to steal the thread, but I am wondering if white coat investor or others can tell me the data to support using "cap rate" in future prediction of returns of real estate investments? I know folks like to use that term to make themselves sound scientific in assessing real estate ventures...
by staythecourse
Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns
Replies: 118
Views: 9504

Re: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns

Just curious if anyone really believes ANYONE'S crystal ball is an better then their own? That includes Mr. Swedroe. As much as I respect him there is NO data I know that accurately predicts future returns of equities. So there is no reason to believe his prediction is any better then if he was to p...
by staythecourse
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old can you be and retire early?
Replies: 56
Views: 3701

Re: How old can you be and retire early?

ER in my mind is before 50 in the context of other folks saying, "Wow he is retired already he must be loaded and that is why he/ she doesn't work". Retiring at 58 is technically ER, but folks are not going to view it the same as the above example. Instead they go, "Wow he is retired ...
by staythecourse
Sun Dec 20, 2015 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: real estate investor reaching end game
Replies: 12
Views: 1670

Re: real estate investor reaching end game

First thing is first and that is not admit to yourself that rental income is NOT the same as bonds. You are basically 100% stock and real estate. Pretty risky at 61 thinking they are "reaching end game". The issue is trying to predict cash flow (one of many reasons it is different then bon...
by staythecourse
Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Here's my new 401k thru employee Fiduciary. Thoughts?
Replies: 15
Views: 576

Re: Here's my new 401k thru employee Fiduciary. Thoughts?

Nothing to add, but kudos to the ownership or admin. of the company for doing what is best for their employee's future and NOT get swept up in the free dinners and golf outings by JH or Fidelity or etc...

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard founder Jack tells investors to stick with tried and true
Replies: 9
Views: 1854

Re: Vanguard founder Jack tells investors to stick with tried and true

Interesting at the end he talks about becoming MORE conservative. I am assuming his net worth has only increased the last 5-6 yrs. AND his life expectancy has decreased. So, why be more conservative? At this point he is investing for his heirs and/ or charity and not himself or his spouse (who I am ...
by staythecourse
Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: dilemma over house division during legal separation
Replies: 98
Views: 8360

Re: dilemma over house division during legal separation

I added in another thread how I don't think using a real estate agent and their commissions is justified in real estate transactions without first trying to sell your house on your own, but I have a COMPLETLEY 180 view on this in relation to this thread. You are going to go through the single BIGGES...
by staythecourse
Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My credit score is 808
Replies: 37
Views: 4703

Re: My credit score is 808

Not to burst your (or other's) bubbles, but your score is not as high as you likely think if you are applying for a mortgage. Mortgage folks pull a trimerge report from the 3 bureaus and the scoring systems they use from the 3 are NOT the same as most folks routinely quote when you pull your own. Mo...
by staythecourse
Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Realtor Negotiating Advice
Replies: 44
Views: 3948

Re: Realtor Negotiating Advice

If one lives in a desirable area then the EASIEST decision is to simply list it on a fee only MLS site. We sit on this site and nitpick on 0.001% ER differences in financial products yet folks have no problem giving away 3% ER to somebody else in likely their single LARGEST financial decision in th...

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