Search found 155 matches

by soupcxan
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 3219

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

Why can't the future of weather be predicted more than a couple days out, considering the fact that weather should follow the laws of physics?
by soupcxan
Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16207

Re: Is Bogelheads getting less interesting?

I agree with you. There seems to be more off topic posts than years past. Things like "What books/TV shows/movies/foods do you like?" and "Recommendations needed for garbage bags". Which would be fine, if there was an off-topic board so I could filter them out. Many other questions that are somewhat...
by soupcxan
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Big family, small house dilemma -- kid bedrooms in basement?
Replies: 23
Views: 2674

Re: Big family, small house dilemma -- kid bedrooms in basement?

Take down the drywall in the bedrooms. Install spray-foam insulation. Put new drywall up and double-layer it. <$5k cost and can be done in a long weekend.
by soupcxan
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do ETF odd lot orders get worse execution at VBS?
Replies: 3
Views: 444

Do ETF odd lot orders get worse execution at VBS?

When buying ETFs through VG brokerage, is it necessary to order in lots of 100 shares to ensure the best execution? If you order 79, or 152 shares, are you going to get a worse price?
by soupcxan
Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net Worth Calculation - Am I Doing It Right? (Individual vs Joint Figures)
Replies: 16
Views: 1699

Re: Net Worth Calculation - Am I Doing It Right? (Individual vs Joint Figures)

Why is net worth info needed to buy term life insurance? I would not provide that. None of their business.
by soupcxan
Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: John Deere series 100 lawn tractors
Replies: 28
Views: 2453

Re: John Deere series 100 lawn tractors

John Deere will not sell you a tractor - they only license them now. I would not do business with a company that doesn't believe I have the right to repair my own equipment.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... eere-apple
by soupcxan
Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 59
Views: 4640

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

TBillT wrote:if the 30-year Treasury goes from 3% to 2% you get 3/2 = 50% cap gain + interest.


lol those numbers are completely wrong
by soupcxan
Fri May 19, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?
Replies: 12
Views: 2807

When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

A new stainless Rolex Submariner date is $8,550 (MSRP). Obviously the market for that watch is significantly different than someone buying a $500 Apple Watch but between smart watches and people wearing no watch at all anymore, demand for luxury watches must be down. When will lower demand be reflec...
by soupcxan
Sun May 14, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3751

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

Selling you that put has the same risk for me as buying the S&P 500 for the same period. Sorry, what? Selling a 30 year European put on the S&P 500 with a strike price of 2390 has a completely different risk/payoff profile compared to a long-only purchaser of the S&P 500 at 2390. They d...
by soupcxan
Sun May 14, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3751

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

Selling you that put has the same risk for me as buying the S&P 500 for the same period. Sorry, what? Selling a 30 year European put on the S&P 500 with a strike price of 2390 has a completely different risk/payoff profile compared to a long-only purchaser of the S&P 500 at 2390. They d...
by soupcxan
Sat May 13, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Setting a periodic transfer / Dealing with a fiscal beggar
Replies: 26
Views: 2880

Re: Setting a periodic transfer / Dealing with a fiscal beggar

You could simply open a joint savings/checking account with them that provides for ATM access. If you have ownership in the account you can deposit/transfer money in (ACH/Check/whatever. To avoid overdrafts a checking account, without checks, might work. A savings account may have limits on the num...
by soupcxan
Sat May 13, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3751

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

If you still believe this, why don't you sell some long dated S&P puts yourself? The premium should be essentially free money to you because there is minimal risk as long as you make the time to expiration long enough, right? Where can I sell some 2047 european put options betting that the mark...
by soupcxan
Sat May 13, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3751

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

Anyone who thinks the risk of the market declines over time should go price some put options on S&P 500 ETFs. If your belief is correct, these securities should be cheaper the further out on the calendar you go. If you still believe this, why don't you sell some long dated S&P puts yourself...
by soupcxan
Sat May 13, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3751

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

Anyone who thinks the risk of the market declines over time should go price some put options on S&P 500 ETFs. If your belief is correct, these securities should be cheaper the further out on the calendar you go. If you still believe this, why don't you sell some long dated S&P puts yourself?...
by soupcxan
Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not opting for 529... anyone else?
Replies: 175
Views: 11827

Re: Not opting for 529... anyone else?

Personally, I am not adding more to my kid's 529 plan until I have maxed out my taxable account.
by soupcxan
Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: John Deere 1025R with Mower
Replies: 10
Views: 1480

Re: John Deere 1025R with Mower

I would not support a company like John Deere - you may think you have bought a tractor but in fact you have really only licensed it from them. Forget about doing any repairs or maintenance yourself. Really disgraceful that a company would operate this way.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... eere-apple
by soupcxan
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I create tax losses with short/long ETF positions?
Replies: 4
Views: 363

Can I create tax losses with short/long ETF positions?

Tell me what's wrong with this plan. On Jan 1, buy 100 shares of VYM (Vanguard High Dividend) and short 100 shares of VTV (Vanguard Value) in a taxable account. You could use any pair of ETFs that track pretty close to each other. On Dec 31, sell whichever one went down and harvest the capital loss ...
by soupcxan
Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone know if this is mold? Would this mean replacing all air ducts?
Replies: 22
Views: 2840

Re: Does anyone know if this is mold? Would this mean replacing all air ducts?

BHUser27 wrote:OP -
I am no expert, but...

Your ducts appear to be lined with exposed fiberglass insulation panels. This is not acceptable under any building code that I am aware of.


Fiberglass in plenums and ducts has been used for over 50 years. It is most definitely not against the average building code.

http://www.achrnews.com/articles/91263- ... insulation
by soupcxan
Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.
Replies: 170
Views: 28631

Re: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.

Do people go to Wal-Mart and expect great service? No, they are the low-cost provider. Vanguard is also the low-cost provider. If you want someone who hangs on your every word you might be better served by a traditional (read: expensive) investment management firm. Another way to say this: cheap, fa...
by soupcxan
Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better to teach kids about investing with ETFs or individual stocks?
Replies: 19
Views: 1172

Better to teach kids about investing with ETFs or individual stocks?

In the long run, when you are dealing with significant sums, there's no doubt that "boring" passive/index investing is the way to go. But do you think it's better to introduce your kids to the world of investing with small sums in a few individual stocks so they can learn how public compan...
by soupcxan
Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comment on my portfolio and situation
Replies: 7
Views: 961

Re: Comment on my portfolio and situation

Right now the mortgage rate is <2% so doesn't make sense to pay off. Will reevaluate when it resets in a couple years if we're still in the same house. And the VYM in taxable has a large gain in it now which would be a big tax hit if I cashed any of it out.
by soupcxan
Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comment on my portfolio and situation
Replies: 7
Views: 961

Comment on my portfolio and situation

Mid-30s married couple with one toddler. ~$200k income each. One W-2 worker, one "self-employed." Maxing out both 401ks and Roth IRAs each year. Mortgage is only debt. Expenses are ~$100/year, taxes are ~$100k/year as well. Regarding the large dividends in taxable, even though I know total...
by soupcxan
Wed Dec 28, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?
Replies: 174
Views: 13270

Re: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?

OP here.

Annual expenses for family of 3 are ~$100k. The rest is taxes and savings.

After looking at prices, a 2-3 year old off-lease CPO Lexus for $35k may be a better value than a new one at $50k.
by soupcxan
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?
Replies: 174
Views: 13270

Re: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?

investingdad wrote:I think the OP is in fine shape...but he didn't give his cash flow.

400k is great, but not if you have 300k expenses.


The hypothetical $400k is a dual income household with one kid. Of the $400k, roughly 25% goes to taxes, 25% is spent, and 50% is saved. Hypothetically.
by soupcxan
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?
Replies: 174
Views: 13270

Re: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?

Tycoon wrote:The function of the car would have to match the price. Why am I buying it?


Well, the truly useful function would be a self-driving car, but that will start around $100k from Tesla next year, plus little used inventory, so that's out.

TheTimeLord wrote:
I am guessing you are looking at a 4 series BMW.


No, Lexus.
by soupcxan
Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?
Replies: 174
Views: 13270

At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?

There's a lot of folks here who would never buy a new car, let alone one for $50k. It's a depreciating asset. But for those that would consider it, under what financial conditions would you do it? Hypothetically, if you were 35, had household income of $400k, and $2M NW, would you drop $50k on a car...
by soupcxan
Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax impact of switching from W-2 to K-1?
Replies: 9
Views: 1330

Re: Tax impact of switching from W-2 to K-1?

Spouse is a partner in a firm that is converting from a PC to a LLP. Currently S is paid on a W-2. With the conversion the firm will pay S on a K-1 and will not withhold anything for taxes. They said S will now be self-employed and have to make quarterly estimated payments 1. Will this increase S's...
by soupcxan
Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax impact of switching from W-2 to K-1?
Replies: 9
Views: 1330

Tax impact of switching from W-2 to K-1?

Spouse is a partner in a firm that is converting from a PC to a LLP. Currently S is paid on a W-2. With the conversion the firm will pay S on a K-1 and will not withhold anything for taxes. They said S will now be self-employed and have to make quarterly estimated payments 1. Will this increase S's ...
by soupcxan
Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can't waive fees any longer at Bank of America
Replies: 29
Views: 2147

Re: Can't waive fees any longer at Bank of America

Why do you feel you are entitled to a waiver of all fees when you have 6 CENTS in your checking account? As a B of A shareholder, I am glad they are culling accounts that are not profitable. Why would you expect them to serve you for free given your very infrequent and almost non-existent relations...
by soupcxan
Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial burnout
Replies: 65
Views: 10466

Re: Financial burnout

[deleted]
by soupcxan
Tue Mar 29, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial burnout
Replies: 65
Views: 10466

Re: Financial burnout

[deleted]
by soupcxan
Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial burnout
Replies: 65
Views: 10466

Re: Financial burnout

[deleted]