Search found 170 matches

by slowmoney
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 68871

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

I work at the State DOT. Our division has half the employees working from home, it seems to be working out OK for now. The governor stated that the State will not completely shut down, so typically the employees left are middle age, some with grown kids and relatively healthy. Of course, it seems your job is stable until it’s not. I imagine most State employees would have furlough days before an outright layoff. There is currently a hiring freeze. My college senior has lost her barista job. She also lost her job getting a neighboring family’s kid to school and back. So, unemployed. My college sophomore lost her University Library job. So, unemployed. My wife is a daycare teacher. Three other local daycares have closed. They need like 20 stu...
by slowmoney
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle
Replies: 44
Views: 5790

Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Dr. Dahle, Thanks for taking the time to respond. As a unique investor, I do think that it is prudent to reduce your risk level as you near retirement and in retirement. From the Bogleheads wiki: John Bogle advises that "as we age, we usually have (1) more wealth to protect, (2) less time to recoup severe losses, (3) greater need for income, and (4) perhaps an increased nervousness as markets jump around. All four of these factors suggest more bonds as we age." From Vanguard Target Retirement Fund: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds offer a diversified portfolio within a single fund that adjusts its underlying asset mix over time. The funds provide broad diversification while incrementally decreasing exposure to stocks and increasin...
by slowmoney
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle
Replies: 44
Views: 5790

Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Hi Rick, Dr. Dahle stated on the podcast that the value premium could be just a “Product of data mining” and/or “Isn’t real” maybe. You followed up with value investing is a “Life long investment strategy…Like a marriage” So, nearly everyone agrees that your exposure to stocks should decline as you age. If you have 30% value stocks in your IPS which underperform early in your investment horizon, then you cut back to say 10% as you age, then just when value stocks outperform, you lost your exposure to value stocks. It seems that you will be unable to capture the risks of a value strategy. It seems that a slice and dice strategy is highly dependent upon early outperformance, simply because you will not be able to maintain that exposure going ...
by slowmoney
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term FAFSA/College Strategy
Replies: 150
Views: 11656

Re: Long Term FAFSA/College Strategy

So, this is my personal experience in saving for kids’ college expenses. I have a senior and a sophomore in college. A senior and freshman in high school. We managed to save about $20,000 for each child in a Coverdell Education Savings Accounts. The senior still has a few thousand remaining the Coverdell. We might have to reassign the remaining amount to another child (It’s unclear how this will go over with the senior :oops: ). The senior has obtained several scholarships as her college career has progressed. I think you should look at Coverdell ESA as a possible college fund source. Before college, I kind of regretted the Coverdells. I thought a 529 would be better. I don’t think so anymore. People are always trying to SELL 529 plans, it...
by slowmoney
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 266
Views: 42601

Re: Tributes to Jack Bogle

Rest in Peace, Mr. Bogle.

I did not have the chance to meet Mr. Bogle but I did read several of his books and posts on this site. I am inspired by his “Press on Regardless”. When he was fired as a young man and learned about his heart condition, I can only imagine that he was at a lost. However, lucky for us, he “Pressed on Regardless”

Lastly, it is in vogue now to talk about market failures. Is Vanguard a market failure? I think not. Mr. Bogle and his index fund has done more to reform, re-structure and improve the financial markets that any sort of regulation.

THANK YOU, JACK!
by slowmoney
Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Piano for a child
Replies: 60
Views: 4569

Re: Piano for a child

We moved an upright piano TWICE. It took 8 grown men and a piano dolly to move it…oh and beers. We had to have it tuned at least twice a year and it still did not sound good. The tuner finally quit coming out because there were no parts. I would not bother with an upright. I finally had to pay 4 guys in their 20s to haul it away… Ten years ago, we bought her a Yamaha keyboard. It was one of the best things we ever did for her. Her piano teacher could actually teach her how something was supposed to sound on the Yamaha, not that weird upright clunking sound. The upright was actually holding her back. Since, she has played in numerous contests, talents shows, and actually made a part in the school play due to her ability on the piano. I agree...
by slowmoney
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeing Yellowstone National Park
Replies: 24
Views: 3335

Re: Seeing Yellowstone National Park

Our family went to Yellowstone in late June. As we drove into the park, we ran into a sleet storm. The rest of the week was fine. It would seem May is early. I think 4-6 days would be enough time to see the park. However, the longer you are there the better the chances are to see rare wildlife; we missed a bear by 5 minutes. :annoyed We stayed in West Yellowstone; lodging has Wi-Fi, lots of restaurants and comfortable sleeping. It is not far from the park. Start early. Like 6am to 7am, otherwise traffic is already too much by 8-9am. Once you get to park area you want to explore its fine. We did not go to the Grand Tetons. If you are already there, it would seem nice to see the Grand Tetons as well. I have always thought it would be nice to ...
by slowmoney
Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CNBC quotes IRS on terms of deductibility of prepaid property taxes
Replies: 79
Views: 8678

Re: CNBC quotes IRS on terms of deductibility of prepaid property taxes

So, you pre-pay your real estate taxes and claim them and the IRS rules against you. You have just commit fraud against the US Government. You are now liable for fines, penalties, interest charges, repayment of refund, and payment of extra taxes on the taxable income. Plus, it is my experience the IRS does not just “let these things go”. Once they have a legitimate reason to audit you….it drags on and on…. It seems that there are real consequences to this.
by slowmoney
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?
Replies: 9
Views: 3212

Re: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?

Taylor wrote:
You are talking about "asset bloat."
Thanks Taylor. Yes. I find it rewarding that index funds don't have to worry about "asset bloat" but active managers certainly do. Seem like a difficult road for active management. Another hurdle to cross on the path to out performance.
by slowmoney
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?
Replies: 9
Views: 3212

Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?

Nope. Not for index funds. Money has been pouring, I mean pouring, into index funds. YET, index returns have not suffered diminishing returns. Yep, it’s all rainbows. That billionth dollar in index funds is just as good as the first. No diminishing returns. :moneybag On the other hand, as an active management fund increases in size, the returns always tank. TANK! They have to intentionally keep the fund very, very small to keep up the returns. That sucks. Basically, the market if very efficient and an active fund can only mine so much excess return before it is completely exhausted. It is called diminishing marginal returns. BUT index funds do not suffer from diminishing marginal returns. Indexing has gone from 0% to around 35% of the marke...
by slowmoney
Fri May 19, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Problems With The Factor Zoo
Replies: 24
Views: 3877

Re: Larry Swedroe: Problems With The Factor Zoo

Garland Whizzer wrote: I would like to thank Random Walker for posting Larry's articles consistently. I agree. :D Larry Swedroe finished the article with this: “First, as we have discussed, all factors—including the ones we have recommended—have experienced long periods of underperformance. So, before investing, be sure that you believe strongly in the rationale behind the factor and the reasons why you trust it will persist in the long run. Without this strong belief, it is unlikely that you will be able to maintain discipline during the inevitable long periods of underperformance. And discipline is one of the keys to being a successful investor. Finally, because there is no way to know which factors will deliver premiums in the future, we...
by slowmoney
Fri May 19, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 42
Views: 7685

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Rekenthaler Report: “Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed” wrote: The primary reason value investing has lost its mojo is not because stock buyers are behaving any differently, but because companies are. It’s a common behavioral trait. It’s always someone else’s fault. Yeah, it’s the companies fault, if only they wouldn’t make money. So, it’s different this time for companies but it’s not different this time for stock investors? Really? The facts are that stock buyers are behaving differently. From the beginning of time to 1975 the stock market was 0.0000% indexed. As in, not indexed at all. From 1975 to around 2000, the stock market was very nominally indexed. After the 2000 collapse, indexing rose. After 2008, it is somewhere around 20-30% ...
by slowmoney
Sun May 14, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?
Replies: 40
Views: 7258

Re: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?

Noah Smith wrote at the end of the article: So when you see an academic paper claiming to have found a way to make easy money, don’t dismiss it as a product of data mining -- it might be a way to make a quick buck. Mmmm....quick bucks. "Quick bucks" usually mean I have to front a bunch of money and then have someone tell me, "Sorry that didn't work out so good this time." BTW, did Cliff Asness become a billionaire by investing in small cap value funds or by selling them? :moneybag Don’t get me wrong, however. As a free riding indexer, I appreciate all the hard work AQR Capital Management does to obliterate the value premium. Keeping the markets efficient as possible. I assume that it is OK for some to make massive bets o...
by slowmoney
Thu May 11, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 10826

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

Thanks for the reply, Random Walker. :D

However, I guess I remain unconvinced. Being unconvinced is a bad place from which to "stay the course".
by slowmoney
Thu May 11, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 10826

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

Random Walker wrote: When articles like this or long periods of underperformance occur, I think it's really important to have a strong belief in a rational risk or behavioral story to make one stick with his plan. Pervasive, persistent, and robust all look backwards. Intuitive, I believe, really helps to look forwards. This is a great point. As an appraiser, you quickly realize that the past has very little to do with the market going forward. What prices were last year, what was hot or cold, etc., has no bearing on what people are currently willing to pay. It only matters what homes, trends, plant closures, etc are impacting the market right now. That is the price. Your opinion or what happened last year, does not matter. IMO too many inve...
by slowmoney
Wed May 10, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?
Replies: 40
Views: 7258

Re: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?

Behavioral anomalies do not persist. They blink in and out of existence based upon nothing. So, no. On the Bloomberg site: “A New Paper Just Took a Huge Shot at Some of the World's Hottest Investments” Highlights from the article: The researchers looked at a variety of factors, including momentum, value-versus-growth and ones based on trading frictions. According to their findings, nearly two-thirds of the market variations couldn’t be replicated 95 percent of the time. Even for significant anomalies -- such as price momentum and operating accruals -- the magnitudes often are far lower than reported. In other words, “the capital markets are more efficient than previously reported,” they write. And: The study concludes that researchers looki...
by slowmoney
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did anything surprise you in your 2016 taxes?
Replies: 83
Views: 10944

Re: Did anything surprise you in your 2016 taxes?

My surprise: The CPA firm only charged $160.00 to file two state returns and federal. Usually, I use Turbo tax but I quit my S-corp, had moving expenses, received employer moving expenses, college expenses, sold/bought homes and had some rollovers. I had a daunting feeling to complete my taxes with Turbo tax. IMO, Turbo tax sucks when it comes to state returns. The CPA firm took a total of 2 hours. The initial visit, follow up paperwork and pickup, 2 hours. I usually waste a couple of hours on Saturday and Sunday with Turbo tax. I am sure Turbo tax would be close to the $160.00 with a lot more wasted time. Our returns will be much simpler next year, but I am shocked that I am actually thinking about just going back to the CPA firm again due...
by slowmoney
Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Payout [how funds use proceeds when a holding is acquired]
Replies: 9
Views: 1483

Re: Payout [how funds use proceeds when a holding is acquired]

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote: If one is to acquire all the shares of a corporation one must convince all* the owners to sell. The ones who won't accept nearly so little as the current market price need to be brought in, hence above-market tender offers. Wow Phineas, thanks for the answer. In economics, there is a concept of consumer surplus. In a buyout, all the shares must be bought. Yes, the entire consumer surplus must be consumed by the buyer. Shifting the demand curve and supply curve to vertical zero lines. The very last share must be bought at a very steep price which is considerably above the current market price. Maybe even the active managers were providing a current market price at which over time would provide a slope for the demand...
by slowmoney
Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of having TIPS funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 5926

Re: Value of having TIPS funds?

#Cruncher wrote: The annual average CPI did increase 3.2% from 218.056 in 2010 to 224.939 in 2011 (source). And this did indeed exceed the 2.7% one year growth of a 0% fixed rate I Bond purchased in January 2011. OK. The point of my post. When compared against the appropriate CPI change, the growth of an I Bond will USUALLY exceed inflation by an amount equal to its fixed rate. OK. Usually is the point of my post. (See the TreasuryDirect FAQ: Can I ever lose money in I bonds?.) Treasury Direct FAQ wrote: Can I ever lose money in I bonds? No. They are U.S. Treasury securities backed by the U.S. Government. I bonds even protect you from the effects of severe deflation—the earnings rate can't go below zero and the redemption value of your I bo...
by slowmoney
Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of having TIPS funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 5926

Re: Value of having TIPS funds?

#Cruncher wrote: Since I Bonds issued at different times can have different fixed rates, there is no good way to just show "I Bond" returns in a way that is consistent with the annual returns of a bond fund like VIPSX or VBMFX, or with the annual increase in the CPI. [2] But a better way than the chart's method would be to show the first year increase for an I Bond bought in January of each year. It would look like this. (Please see #Cruncher table.) Thanks for the improvement to my table. Yes, I confess, I did not know a good way to show I-Bond returns which would be consistent with VIPSX and VBMFX. Thanks for your help. From your table it would appear that I-Bonds returned 2.68% in 2011 but inflation was 3.20%. Also, in 2013, in...
by slowmoney
Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Payout [how funds use proceeds when a holding is acquired]
Replies: 9
Views: 1483

Payout [how funds use proceeds when a holding is acquired]

In the CNBC article “AT&T to buy Straight Path Communications for $1.25 billion” on the CNBC website: U.S. wireless carrier AT&T said on Monday it would buy Straight Path Communications, a holder of licenses to wireless spectrum, for $1.25 billion in an all-stock deal. The No.2 U.S. carrier said it would offer $95.63 per share, a premium of 162.1 percent to Straight Path's Friday close. So, Bogleheads, how does this work? I assume that Vanguard Total Stock takes the payout gain from AT&T for Straight Path and redistributes the one time gain along the cap-weighted index. Most of the payout will be wasted on losers. But some will be placed on the big time winners which will drive future returns. Honestly, I never even knew that St...
by slowmoney
Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of having TIPS funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 5926

Re: Value of having TIPS funds?

grok87 wrote:
I am a big believer in tips as a hedge against a stagflation scenario. But i think one should also hold nominal treasuries as well to hedge against deflation. Basically i follow david swensen's advice to put your bonds in treasuries and tips/ibonds and skip corporates, mbs, etc.
take your risk on the equity side!
Yes, I agree to take risk on equity side.

IMO, TIPS have been sold as an inflation hedge. Something like, "If you hold TIPS, you cannot loose to inflation." Clearly the record shows this is not the case.

In general, hedges are expensive and have a tendency fail to deliver when they are needed.
by slowmoney
Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of having TIPS funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 5926

Re: Value of having TIPS funds?

Karen Wallace of Morningstar wrote in “Handy Weapons in an Inflation Fighter's Arsenal” (please feel free to read her article) : This is important to note because although TIPS mutual funds and ETFs hold bonds whose principal values adjust along with inflation, the funds themselves don't have a maturity date. Therefore, there is no explicit guarantee of principal protection; it's possible that you could lose money in a TIPS mutual fund over the course of your holding period. Year………VIPSX…………..............VBMFX…………..........I-bonds….…….......…Inflation 2006……….0.43%.....................4.27%....................4.52%...................3.20% 2007………11.59%....................6.92%....................4.08%...................2.80% 2008………-2.85%.....
by slowmoney
Sun Mar 12, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 58
Views: 8382

Re: A look at the small cap premium

Larry wrote:
First, it's logical that premiums should fall when implementation costs fall as investors care about NET returns. Thus, just as the dramatic fall in the cost of investing in stocks (not only ER ratios, but bid offer spreads and commissions) has IMO contributed to the fall in the ERP (higher valuations, and thus lower expected future returns) the same must be true for small cap stocks. Thus just as one should expect a smaller beta premium going forward IMO one should also expect a smaller size premium.
It is always gratifying when very knowledgeable, intelligent, financial authors confirm my bias. :beer

Thanks for all your posting on Bogleheads, Larry. Always giving us somethings to think about, it’s a great pleasure.
by slowmoney
Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: My Asset Allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 3801

Re: Rekenthaler: My Asset Allocation

John Rekenthaler wrote: My financial situation is not that strong—but it is very good, given my brilliant absurdly lucky decision to join an 18-person startup that would eventually become a $3.4 billion company. Mmm…I thought to work at Morningstar, you had to know something about finance and investing….Nope. Just be lucky enough to be at the right spot at the right time. :oops: It’s called a jibe. I enjoy reading Mr. Rekenthaler musings. John also wrote: That included the very bad year of 2008, which was particularly difficult for me, since at that time my portfolio consisted almost entirely of Morningstar stock, which fell 70% from peak to trough. Actually, I find this disturbing. Is it not the number one investing rule of every investing...
by slowmoney
Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a good time to fix your mortgage?
Replies: 17
Views: 3314

Re: a good time to fix your mortgage?

This is terrible news for real estate appraisers. Refinancing and sales usually drop off with rising rates. I am not sure if some appraisers understand just how slow things can get. Good thing, I accepted a job with the DOT as an appraiser, last year. :wink: [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] This is also terrible news for home owners. Higher mortgage rates are usually negative for home prices. Higher rates could mean a growing economy which could mean higher paying jobs which could offset some of the higher rates. In any case, it has been my experience in the past 40+ years of involvement in the appraisal business that higher rates are just simply bad for housing. Some old timers talk about “assumable mortgages”. Wow….maybe your sub-4 ...
by slowmoney
Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A note of caution from Robert Shiller
Replies: 66
Views: 12870

Re: A note of caution from Robert Shiller

Garland,

It seems that Robert Shiller is cherry picking. Picking the most outrageous dates (the data points 2000 and 2006) to merely bolster his argument. It is easy to throw bombs but then offer no alternatives. What are we suppose to invest in, cash? Then cherry pick our entry and exit of the stock market?

MnD wrote:
The CAPE ratio has signaled that equities were overvalued in no fewer than 416 of 422 months between 1981 and 2015
:oops:
by slowmoney
Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Admiral Shares
Replies: 0
Views: 686

Admiral Shares

So, there was a recent post about Admiral shares expense ratios. This led me to think about the aggregate US stock market. According to U.S. News, as of October 2016, the value of the Vanguard Total US Stock Market mutual fund was $468,590,000,000. The expense ratio of the Total US fund is 0.05%. This is $234,295,000 per year in costs. According to the Motley Fool, the average active fund charges an expense ratio of 1.5%. If the $468,590,000,000 Vanguard Total US fund was in active funds it would cost investors $7,028,850,000. This is a difference of $6,794,555,000 per year. Or about 0.017% of the $41 trillion US stock market as of 2015. It seems that this has significant implications for investors: 1. Low expense ratios of index funds, in ...
by slowmoney
Sat Jan 28, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Humble brag finally got admiral shares in taxable account
Replies: 29
Views: 5024

Re: Humble brag finally got admiral shares in taxable account

When we opened our first Vanguard Fund in 2008, the threshold for Admiral class shares was $50,000 per fund. Basically, I thought at the time…well maybe someday.

Then THANKS to Vanguard, it’s investors, and of course, the founder Jack Bogle, they lowered the Admiral class shares to $10,000 per fund. :mrgreen: It was a few years ago, not sure of the date.

In any case, all of our funds are now Admiral class. :moneybag It is a goal that is reachable for nearly every investor.

CONGRATS! :sharebeer
by slowmoney
Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts on this inverse living floor plan and building a home in general
Replies: 30
Views: 3584

Re: Thoughts on this inverse living floor plan and building a home in general

As a real estate appraiser for the past 20 years, the following is my OPINION on new homes: 1. Don’t do it. 2. In many cases as an appraiser, it is extremely difficult to justify the construction price of a new home compared to other older homes in the area. The cost of materials and labour are simply outrageous. No discounts are applied to brand new homes, you have to pay the full upfront costs. Paying full price usually sucks. 3. After a few years or 10 years, all the problems with the home and area are readily identifiable. The full measure of discounts can be applied. It is my opinion that only around 20% of the builders actually know how to build a house. The top 20% are usually very expensive. In a new home, you have no idea which pro...
by slowmoney
Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 15472

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

Sometimes a big, endearing smile comes across my face. Especially, when people find “free lunches” that nobody knows about. Yeah, go 100% TIPs. Those silly nominal bond people….they don’t even know about inflation and bonds. I wonder what would happened if all the nominal bond people “discovered” TIPs and sold all their nominal bonds and started buying TIPs. I assume that even CNBC would comment on the unbelievable spike in the “breakeven inflation” rate in one day. :mrgreen: So, like, nominal bond prices would collapse and yields would spike. And yet, TIPs prices would skyrocket due to the crushing demand and their yields would go NEGATIVE yet again. An enormous smiling abyss would open between nominal bonds and TIPs regarding this trope “...
by slowmoney
Sun Dec 18, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: anyone else moving into bond funds
Replies: 30
Views: 4485

Re: anyone else moving into bond funds

We sold around 5% of US Total Stock and bought US Total Bond with the proceeds. We rebalance once at the end of the year. I have no idea if that is a good time or not. Nothing like selling an asset class that has been "up a lot" and buying one that is a "falling knife". Selling high and buying low? Maybe. In any case, I like the thought of "locking in" portfolio gains by selling stocks and buying bonds at a higher interest rate. I assume that 20+ years of compounding in bonds of the "locked in" portfolio stock gain will be rewarded at retirement. Of course nothing is guaranteed in investing and losing money is commonplace. But I guess, I have managed to convince myself that rebalancing when needed is ...
by slowmoney
Sun Dec 18, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 11037
Views: 2066312

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

My son, daughter and I just saw, "Rogue One".

They said, "Best ending to a Stars Wars film ever." I tend to agree.

Also, he said the best part of "The Force Awakens" was when Chewbacca got ticked. Ha!
by slowmoney
Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 16880

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Aboose wrote: It just doesn't make sense to me. How can you reduce your risk, while simultaneously increasing your returns / beating the market? There is no Free Lunch. I can accept that rebalancing helps us get back to our emotionally set asset allocations, if it also means we are reducing our returns. Because logically that makes sense. That’s funny….I been munching on the diversification “free lunch” for years now. Rebalancing has nothing to do with market timing. Rebalancing is: 1. Maintaining a risk tolerance that allows you to “stay the course”. 2. Forcing you to maintain a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, international and cash. 3. Allows for a smoother ride of portfolio returns. Market timing is a LOSING strategy. I personall...
by slowmoney
Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund is Getting Hammered!
Replies: 71
Views: 15633

Re: TIPS Fund is Getting Hammered!

abuss,

I am not sure....

Basically, I really have zero interest in getting bogged down in an unending argument about TIPS of all things.

You are free to post your thoughts about TIPS.
by slowmoney
Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund is Getting Hammered!
Replies: 71
Views: 15633

Re: TIPS Fund is Getting Hammered!

Because there seems to be many TIPS apologists among Bogleheads, I think abuss likes to chide them. Slowmoney is NOT a TIPS apologist. 1. Many TIPS apologists state that TIPS are inflation insurance/protection. Let’s see. I can buy $1.5 million dollars of life insurance for around $800 per year. If I die, $200,000 pays off all the family debts, $300,000 to put the kids through college and my wife gets $1 million dollars to live off of for the rest of her life! All tax free of course. Seems like this insurance completely covers the “unexpected loss of life”. Now, that’s insurance. I can buy $300,000 dollars worth of house insurance (both house and contents) for around $600 per year. Of course, I cannot simply “replace” my house or certain it...
by slowmoney
Sun Dec 20, 2015 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you handle auto care? (for a non-DIY'er)
Replies: 54
Views: 7010

Re: How do you handle auto care? (for a non-DIY'er)

I am a dealership guy. They always try to up-sell and over-sell me.

So, I just follow the maintenance manual that came with the car. Periodically, if I feel that something needs to be addressed I will have them do the repairs.

A very, long time ago, a mechanic told me, "You don't do any preventative maintenance and you're surprised when your car has a break down?"

Since I use my car for work, the US government basically pays for the maintenance of my car. I bought my 2009 Focus with 4 miles and now it has 125,000. Given the regular maintenance, it seems to have a very long way to go yet. It is simply a fun and great car, good gas mileage, easy to drive and has cost me about $0.096 per mile to drive.
by slowmoney
Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 296
Views: 72577

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

Victoria wrote:
They have not sent an email with a link. And a sign-on process is pretty rigorous.
Yes. Snail mail and then the security questions. I had forgotten some of those things they asked about in the sign up process. Actually, I think that your responses are timed. Either you will know the answer or waste a bunch of time looking it up....

It is kind of nice to see and read the response of other people in the OPM boat. Thanks for all the replies to this thread.

-Slowmoney
by slowmoney
Sun Dec 06, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 296
Views: 72577

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

I was actually enjoying my Saturday morning when a T-1000 showed up and delivered my OPM letter that I have been compromised. To be honest, I have kind of "given up" being mad about it. Didn't this "malicious cyber intrusion" happen like at least 6+ months ago or maybe even longer ago? Anyway, I signed up for the services and I am implementing Victoria's suggestions.
by slowmoney
Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at the size premium, redefining it improves the model
Replies: 14
Views: 2041

Re: Another look at the size premium, redefining it improves the model

According to NAREIT: To qualify as a REIT a company must: • Invest at least 75 percent of its total assets in real estate • Derive at least 75 percent of its gross income from rents from real property, interest on mortgages financing real property or from sales of real estate • Pay at least 90 percent of its taxable income in the form of shareholder dividends each year • Be an entity that is taxable as a corporation • Be managed by a board of directors or trustees • Have a minimum of 100 shareholders Have no more than 50 percent of its shares held by five or fewer individuals. I was going to post the IRS definition of a REIT but it is ridiculously long. The point is a REIT actually has a definition. What is the universally accepted, unassai...
by slowmoney
Sun Sep 20, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are international bonds necessary?
Replies: 33
Views: 7347

Re: Are international bonds necessary?

So, the expense ratio is more like 0.50…Mmmm. Total US Bond has an expense ratio of 0.07. I have been thinking about this for some time, so I thought I would just post about it and move on to other things. In Vanguard’s paper, “Global fixed income: Considerations for U.S. investors” on page 4: A departure from market-cap-weighted exposure to international bonds assumes that the market is incorrect in it valuation and that there is better way to invest. Correct. So when Vanguard “hedges” it currency exposure, it is really “pegging” the currency to a very specific time period. That specific market-cap-weighted exposure. Well, the next day, the global capital markets which includes the international currency market, reset the global market-cap...
by slowmoney
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads' Silent Majority
Replies: 255
Views: 50326

Re: The Bogleheads' Silent Majority

I lurk way too much…. Oddly enough, since I implemented Vanguard security protocols, I find it very onerous to log on to my account. I have not logged on to my account in weeks….I’ll probably never know how much money I “lost” in the correction. It must be some sort of Vanguard conspiracy to keep me from “peeking” at my accounts. 1. In the past 8 years as a serious investor, I have EMBRACED the fact that I am going to LOSE money from time to time. I don’t know any investor who has not lost money. 2. How am I going to feast on the Markowitz diversification free lunch, if some of my asset classes do not LOSE money? 3. Actually, I find it kind of funny watching people lose their minds over paper losses. I saw a video clip, where a talking head...
by slowmoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard Account Hacked
Replies: 22
Views: 5219

Re: Vanguard Account Hacked

livesoft wrote:
Perhaps of interest to folks here: I was locked out of one of my brokerage accounts a while ago. I had to call to get my username changed and along with that a new password, etc. The fraud department had detected some activity that I was unaware of and would not explain to me what that activity was. Was my account actually "hacked"? I don't know. Did I lose money? Why ask that question? :)
I found this post helpful. Thanks, livesoft.

I think I am done with the thread.
by slowmoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard Account Hacked
Replies: 22
Views: 5219

Re: Vanguard Account Hacked

Since this is a public forum, I really do not want disclose all the details.

Basically, unknown people were accessing my accounts, I was not accessing my accounts.
by slowmoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard Account Hacked
Replies: 22
Views: 5219

Vanguard Account Hacked

So, yes, my personal Vanguard account was hacked. I worked with Vanguard setting up new security protocols. It’s great fun wondering how many people gawked at your accounts. Since I am skeptical of the circumstances or maybe I am just paranoid: (NOTE: The Vanguard site was not hacked, just my account out of hundreds of thousands of accounts. Mmmm…) I have made like 100 posts in around 5 years on Bogleheads. My opinions on TIPS, currency hedging, REITS, value investing and real estate are based upon the most basic of economic concepts and the conclusions are painfully obvious to anyone able to piss in a jar. So, let’s empty slowmoney’s retirement accounts. I once thought people could use the internet but now I realize people are mostly conde...
by slowmoney
Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 9141

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

Sometimes I muse that value investing is one of the most successful and clever marketing ploys, I have ever heard of. :wink:
by slowmoney
Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2915

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

Thanks for the post, Browser. You usually have an edge to your posts which makes them interesting.... From the GMO White Paper: Adding a currency position to an ... investment may actually increase the risk exposure. and Currencies are not real assets: a currency depends on the creditworthiness of its issuer. A currency can be completely devalued by unexpected inflation as has happened with hyperinflation scenarios like Brazil (1980-94). and Underwriting an additional risk without getting paid for it is not a good investment strategy. and finally, We believe currency hedging gives investors a false sense of risk reduction; hedging does not eliminate a risk exposure and can actually increase overall fundamental risk. I was kind of thinking t...
by slowmoney
Fri May 01, 2015 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversification?
Replies: 108
Views: 16882

Re: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversificatio

Schuyler74 wrote:
Finally, Fidelity concluded in 2013 that REITs are indeed "An Underutilized Portfolio Diversifier" and created a short PDF that directly addresses many of the topics raised earlier. Probably worth a skim if you're still reading page 3 of a thread! :)
Thanks for the link!