Search found 2840 matches

by siamond
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 54
Views: 4640

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

I believe the standard way to calculate after-cost return [R] is this formula (the same as adjusting [for] inflation): R = (1+r) / (1+c) -1 [where r is gross return before fee and c is the fee] This can't be right, Kevin. Consider the case where r, the gross return, is 0% and c, the fee, is 2%. You...
by siamond
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?
Replies: 24
Views: 2950

Re: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?

I guess my question was more: if one wanted to set up the portfolio according to the market cap, should one stick to (stay the course with) the US/Ex-US actual ratio from when the plan was set? or update the portfolio's ratio as the actual market ratio changes? I strongly suspect either plan would ...
by siamond
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?
Replies: 24
Views: 2950

Re: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?

siamond, are you suggesting here that if one decided today to invest according to the market cap (say your 50% USA-50% Ex-USA example), one is better off by sticking to the original market cap ratio rather than update the portfolio's ratio as/when the market cap changes significantly? Thank you. We...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1163

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

here's a news article discussing it specifically for bonds (but discusses Vanguard doing it): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-03/bond-funds-are-bringing-trading-in-house-after-dealer-pullback Extract: At Vanguard Group, the proportion of bond trades crossed internally has remained s...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1163

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

In VG's case might it mitigate those trading costs by reassigning stock shifts to another VG fund? So the trading costs would be overstated if linked to just turnover? For instance, VISVX has a turnover of about 18%. Some of this could be reassigned to the funds that acquire the turned over stock. ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1163

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Here's good explanation of the costs of portfolio turnover , and a subsequent bit of research that quantified the impact of hidden trading costs on fund performance. Long story short, the internal trading costs for buying and selling securities within a fund are virtually hidden from investors as a...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1163

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Buffer zones are not a CRSP-only thing. MSCI and S&P both do it. Not sure about Russell. I guess for the SV tilters on this board, it ensures that your fund does not have a negative momentum load which is generally considered a good thing. Thanks. I was more thinking about the stability of the ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1163

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

BlueEars wrote:
siamond wrote:Well... Any taker? :?:

What's wrong with my take?
I tend to be pragmatic. Not abstract enough for the cognoscenti sometimes. :sharebeer

Sorry, I (of course) meant 'any more taker'...
by siamond
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1163

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

siamond wrote:Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing?

Well... Any taker? :?:
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Compare_Portfolios - Cell D4, P4: Include the acronym in the comment - "Year of First (annual) Return" Lazy_Portfolios - Cell D4: ditto Portfolio_Math - Cell D4: ditto Data_TR_USD - Cell A5: Include the text "No historical return available before that year" Data_Misc - Cell A5: ...
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

jc6309 wrote:When is the appropriate time to comment on your work-in-progress (16d)? (It's very minor and certainly can wait.)

As Ladygeek said, just post here, or send me a PM, and I'll process your feedback in due time. Thank in advance for helping.
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 5959

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

Given there are actually a few reality shows on gold mining I doubt it is as unknown as you believe. More importantly in countries where banking systems are still evolving having a compact store of value or one you can wear is a huge advantage. And you really think that the majority of folks watchi...
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 5959

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

There is little discussion that gold is NOT a good investment per se, as explained in previous posts. Its only value is at the portfolio level, where it has demonstrably proven quite valuable in the past (since the early 70s), dampening portfolio overall volatility in recent crisis. Before that, the...
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1163

Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

The ever creative author of PortfolioCharts.com (Tyler) issued a new post a few days ago. For background, you probably need to read his full explanation about the 'stock index calculator'. Here are the links. https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/04/11/tuning-stock-indices-for-a-little-more-accuracy/#mor...
by siamond
Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Investing Without a Spreadsheet.

With my simple Vanguard 3-fund portfolio I manage to retire comfortably withou t a spreadsheet. Cool. And for those of you more spreadsheet-inclined, Taylor's 3-fund portfolio is part of the 25 'lazy portfolios' worksheet, where I just added a couple of new charts to help people compare the proposa...
by siamond
Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Speaking of double work, I do understand that you can't include the F-F data in the spreadsheet due to copyright, but would it be an idea to make a place for it (i.e., even with column names, along with the links to the data that you already have). Assuming it didn't slow the spreadsheet down too m...
by siamond
Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

I do have a question on the naming of "SD vs. MAR" cell: I had expected that MAR refers to market, but digging deeper discovered it's the 30 day T-bill. Is MAR a standard abbreviation for this? It might be worth adding the definition to the "Data Sources" tab, or in the comments...
by siamond
Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 160
Views: 9807

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

Maybe we should come back to the original question being asked? :wink: The common reply is that rebalancing isn't done to improve returns, but to control risk. Without rebalancing, your stocks would dominate over time, which would increase your risk, right? This doesn't make sense to me either. [......
by siamond
Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Per your gracious Mar 15 response to my MS Office 2007 Excel problem wherein you reverted the correlation and covariance functions to their pre-Office 2010 status, I have a question as to whether this was the proper long term approach? My tactic, after wrestling with the chagrin of using an antique...
by siamond
Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart
Replies: 17
Views: 3217

Re: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart

Every year they publish the "J.P. Morgan Guide to Markets" which shows up as a PDF. Googling turns up this https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/insights/guide-to-the-markets as where J.P. Morgan seems to be keeping the PDF. It's probably the single best source of interes...
by siamond
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Put $6,500 bonus check to pay off car or max out Roth for the year?
Replies: 29
Views: 1690

Re: Put $6,500 bonus check to pay off car or max out Roth for the year?

rob wrote:The roth is a use it or lose it proposition (you don't get to use it future years).... I would do the roth from what you describe.

Yup, agreed.

OP, don't rush to repay loans with a low interest rate, the math just doesn't add up... I wish I had understood that when I was younger...
by siamond
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart
Replies: 17
Views: 3217

Re: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart

AlohaJoe wrote:JP Morgan has a similar chart they update every year that I also like

Yes, this is a much better representation. It appears that this chart is regularly updated. Mind sharing the Web page where you found it?
by siamond
Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: We have a lot going on .... Input Requested.
Replies: 29
Views: 2697

Re: We have a lot going on .... Input Requested.

soccerrules, you're not exactly the only one to wake up a tad 'late' in the process. Heck, I did the same. And so did most participants to this forum. So stop beating you up, it's water over the bridge, what matters is the future. And the future will be much brighter, given that you've learned some ...
by siamond
Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 7433

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

siamond, by looking at the historical evidence--that's how you make estimates of returns. Yes, ok, sure, but I was asking for more specific pointers... SRRIX has a very short history. You must have some specific data series in mind. How can we find that? Or some in-depth analysis by an author or an...
by siamond
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 7433

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Just trying to understand a bit better here... Larry said in his article: It’s important to understand that the equity like expected returns (6-8% after fund expenses) associated with accepting the risks of investment in reinsurance are compensation for the risk of occasional large losses. How do we...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Surprisingly, the worst three year period during the Great Depression with default rates totaling to 12.88 percent barely makes it into the top five credit events for non financials. 12.88% is the actual loss of principal from actual defaults. With a default rate that high, you can be sure that cre...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Maybe I misunderstood your charts. It appeared that you were maintaining​ a 20/20 Treasury/corporate ratio no matter what equities do. In a stock market crash Treasuries tend to rise while corporate sink. Letting your T/C ratio decrease in such a situation gives you some added benefit not apparent ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Ok, all this being said, I think we're splitting hairs. Fact is you can put some corporates in your bonds mix or not, and the impact will be truly minimal. Or at least it has been for this time period. Refining the plan on the stock side of things *AND* sticking to the course is way, way more impor...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

It's not that people overreacted to the magnitude of the drop in corporates. The problem was the fact that it occurred when equities were down 50% or more. Risk should be evaluated as overall portfolio risk, not by looking at asset classes in isolation. Yes, I totally agree with that. I was just tr...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

... Yes, ok, the corporates had that hiccup in 2008. They dropped by 7%, and quickly recovered (then kind of soared). There was a similar hiccup in 1974 (not visible on the growth chart), with a 6% drop and a recovery the year after. That's definitely not risk in my book, it's just a hiccup. Treasu...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Siamond: thank you for the graphs. They confirm my views that many BHs have over-reacted to the 2008 transient hiccup that the Intermediate Investment Grade Bond Fund (VFIDX) experienced. Treasuries have had their dips but no similar reaction to them. My reservation about VBILX is its longer durati...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Has there been a study about actual defaults of corporate bonds in Vanguard Investment Grade Bond funds that were of significance to the valuation and success of that bond fund? The Vanguard fund with corporate bonds are still relatively new (e.g. VCIT inception date is Nov-09), but we can use the ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 44
Views: 2957

Re: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]

Yes, that's one of the reasons I find it strange to compare Japan to the US and to say a similar thing might happen in the US. CAPE was like 95 for Japan compared to 29 now for the US. Don't really see the same thing happening now unless there is a huge recession. And if a huge recession happens in...
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:21 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 56134

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Miriam2 wrote:Good lord Siamond :shock: :shock: It must have taken you all day to wrestle that creature :wink: What are all those furry things around its mouth?

Barbels. They feel food on the bottom thanks to them. A moustache with tastebuds, if you wish... Very useful!
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 56134

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

VictoriaF wrote:Wow! It's as big as a mermaid {laughing}

What can I say? As I'm sure you know, retirees with a funny accent tend to attract interesting and lovely people... :wink:
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 56134

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Another pic (heck, you asked!). It barely fit on my landing mat... Good thing I had a monster net with me. :beer

Image
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 56134

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

It's improv for both you and the fish. And serendipity for you if you catch some. Please post pictures! Since you ask... Here is an anonymous picture, but yes, I did catch this fish (and released it in good health). This is a smallmouth buffalo. 47 pounds and change. I kid you not. Caught in Texas ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 56134

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

I'm going to drive from MA to MO and back, small step by small step, staying a few days to fish in each state on the way. In some cases, meeting local friends, in other cases, going completely blind, just a name on the map with a nice river passing by. Another form of improv, I guess. :wink: A total...
by siamond
Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 44
Views: 2957

Re: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]

Just a quick bump to say that I updated the blog post (Part 1) to address a couple of issues: 1. I did a copy and paste mistake for the Netherlands, mixing up USD and local currency series. Many thanks to Tyler who spotted the issue. Part 2 and Part 3 did use the corrected data series. This is fixed...
by siamond
Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

I also disagree with those who dismiss higher bond fund returns by saying if you want such higher returns, then add more equities to your portfolio. The risks between equities and bonds are are far greater than having a slightly higher corporate bond presence in the better performing bond fund. Sti...
by siamond
Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Core bond's largest holding ($490 million) is "Japan Treasury Discount Bill". That's 74 percent of Core Bond's total assets. What does this mean about the character of Core Bond's portfolio? Oh, oh! Didn't know that. Somebody at Vanguard's Bond Dept. Evidently likes Japanese bonds as I sa...
by siamond
Sat Apr 01, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 23
Views: 1896

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

siamond....Wow, what an interesting set of articles. I would recommend a bullet point summary, for those of us who aren't sharp enough to digest all of the information packed in the articles. Full disclosure: I am not sharp enough to digest it all. Thank you. Yes, this is a lot of information to pr...
by siamond
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

I'm making my way through the spreadsheet, and it is really a work of art -- beautiful! A work of art? LOL, thank you! I do have a question on the naming of "SD vs. MAR" cell: I had expected that MAR refers to market, but digging deeper discovered it's the 30 day T-bill. Is MAR a standard...
by siamond
Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone factor in future inheritance?
Replies: 78
Views: 4725

Re: anyone factor in future inheritance?

OK...I'll go against the grain. I factored it into one of our retirement projections....but I have multiple projections based on "what if" scenarios. Yes, exactly, I do the same. And one of the scenarios has a big fat zero in there. Inheritance is part of real life, it makes no sense to t...
by siamond
Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 23
Views: 1896

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

Da5id wrote:Both links in that sentence point to part 3...

Fixed. Thank you.
by siamond
Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 985
Views: 536117

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet

But the formula is still approximate, right? In the attached spread sheet I have a stylized example where the gross return is 10%, the expense ratio is 2% and we invest 1,000 USD for 1 year (252 trading days). If the formula is meant to be exact, where do I go wrong in my spreadsheet (ie. why is ce...
by siamond
Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 186
Views: 24501

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I tried another tack with a study which was published on the Bogleheads Financial Page blog, pondering about what would have happened to local investors in major developed countries if they had stayed 100% domestic since 1970, or maybe had used some level of global diversification. I found it enlig...
by siamond
Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 186
Views: 24501

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

This topic is raised several times a month, and it always goes round and round, mostly based on pre-conceptions which are often dangerously close to 'confirmation bias' or to 'success bias'. Funny, all Bogleheads know to NOT do that with individual stocks or even sectors (past performance... blah), ...
by siamond
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 23
Views: 1896

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

For your SWR chart in part 2, it might be interesting to replace the Y axis with the dividend yield at retirement, if you have it. Sort of a rough estimate of market valuation, since I'm pretty sure you don't have PE10 :) I know that MSCI provides historical valuation metrics, but you need a (not s...
by siamond
Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 23
Views: 1896

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

[...]I will be waiting for Part 4. I'm sure it will be very good. [...] Only if you want to, It would be interesting to do something like this with a sample of Emerging Markets country too. Thanks for the nice words. I think I'll just collect elements of discussion from this thread, and the other t...

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