Search found 2853 matches

by siamond
Sat May 27, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 264
Views: 46718

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Ongoing roll call for our coming meeting. Saturday June 3rd, 2017 (10am to noon): Metro-Boston Bogleheads chapter quarterly meeting (agenda was shared by e-mail). Location: Lincoln Public Library (MA). Followed by optional social lunch at 12:30pm. Please let me know (e-mail, private message, or post...
by siamond
Wed May 24, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A gem Livesoft uncovered
Replies: 60
Views: 9721

Re: A Gem from [some guy not livesoft]

I wish these tables/graphs were able to show some flexibility. Such as a semi variable withdrawal rate. Did you read the entire series? Your wish was granted. Not really. The series does a really nice job of analyzing SWRs and constant withdrawal methods, but the few posts providing some analysis o...
by siamond
Wed May 24, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolio returns
Replies: 7
Views: 998

Re: Lazy Portfolio returns

On the Lazy Portfolio page there many different portfolios you can build. Question: Is there a page that shows the returns of these funds the las 3,5,10 year period. Or since they been around. Thanks, You can check the Simba spreadsheet (a Bogleheads community project) and the Lazy_Portfolio tab, a...
by siamond
Mon May 22, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Hello. I'm a Canadian Investor who finds this spreadsheet invaluable in testing Canadian based portfolio's in $CAD. I've been using the data in the Data_Misc tab to add Canadian data to Data_TR_USD to construct the portfolio's. I'd like to be able to contribute to the spreadsheet data if possible. ...
by siamond
Sun May 21, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 264
Views: 46718

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Opening the roll call for the meeting on June 3rd... If you're coming, please let me know (e.g. e-mail, PM, or post on this thread), and tell me if this is for sure or just tentative for now. Also, we'll have a social lunch, so if you plan to do that too, please tell me (and be specific about the # ...
by siamond
Sun May 21, 2017 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 2445

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Trying to put aside thoughts on what you are trying to make us say... Just making a honest guess... I would say: A=China B=USA C=India And I'm pretty sure I got it wrong! :D As a side note, as nisiprius would point out, the start/end dates always change everything. So we really can't read much on th...
by siamond
Sat May 20, 2017 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5218

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

So does he use global stock return data to come up w/ the 6.7% real return since 1802 or is that just US data? From what I've read on other sources, the global real return going back as far as we can is only 5%... 6.7% real since 1802, if that is based on global markets, sounds too good to be true....
by siamond
Thu May 18, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26146

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

As to the sequence of returns (SoR) risk, this is a way overblown issue, due to researchers using a flat withdrawal rate, it doesn't take much flexibility in one's withdrawals to largely mitigate consequences of SoR, a point which seems completely lost on the author. siamond, not sure I agree with ...
by siamond
Wed May 17, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26146

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

Back to the original article, I remember being quite shocked when I read it the first time. Rick Ferri is a well-known author, usually coming up with sound advice, and... well, making 30/70 the 'center of gravity', i.e. the starting point for most retirees (while dissing the age-old 60/40 recommenda...
by siamond
Wed May 17, 2017 7:12 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 264
Views: 46718

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

siamond wrote:Here are the dates for the next Metro-Boston meetings, please mark your calendars:

- June 3rd, 10am to noon (Lincoln Library), then social lunch (probably Bertucci/Waltham)
- September 9th, 1pm to 4pm (Lincoln library)

Meetings confirmed!
by siamond
Thu May 11, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International REIT
Replies: 31
Views: 2302

Re: International REIT

OP, you may want to consider the iShares Global REIT fund (REET) for a simpler replacement of a combo VNQ/VNQI.
by siamond
Fri May 05, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation tools for investors around the world
Replies: 4
Views: 590

Re: Asset allocation tools for investors around the world

Being on a big trip, I don't have time right now to do justice to Tyler's latest update, but I followed its early development, and this is clearly ground-breaking work. The Triumph of the Optimists research made available to each of us with friendly and colorful tools to analyze data to our heart's ...
by siamond
Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

I believe cells C105 and C106 of the "Compare Portfolios" tab should read "real," rather than "nominal." This is what the comments state, and looks to be the case. Good catch. And there was a similar mislabeling in the Lazy_Portfolios tab. Fixed in the working draft. T...
by siamond
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 54
Views: 4988

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

I believe the standard way to calculate after-cost return [R] is this formula (the same as adjusting [for] inflation): R = (1+r) / (1+c) -1 [where r is gross return before fee and c is the fee] This can't be right, Kevin. Consider the case where r, the gross return, is 0% and c, the fee, is 2%. You...
by siamond
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?
Replies: 24
Views: 3064

Re: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?

I guess my question was more: if one wanted to set up the portfolio according to the market cap, should one stick to (stay the course with) the US/Ex-US actual ratio from when the plan was set? or update the portfolio's ratio as the actual market ratio changes? I strongly suspect either plan would ...
by siamond
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?
Replies: 24
Views: 3064

Re: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?

siamond, are you suggesting here that if one decided today to invest according to the market cap (say your 50% USA-50% Ex-USA example), one is better off by sticking to the original market cap ratio rather than update the portfolio's ratio as/when the market cap changes significantly? Thank you. We...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1378

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

here's a news article discussing it specifically for bonds (but discusses Vanguard doing it): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-03/bond-funds-are-bringing-trading-in-house-after-dealer-pullback Extract: At Vanguard Group, the proportion of bond trades crossed internally has remained s...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1378

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

In VG's case might it mitigate those trading costs by reassigning stock shifts to another VG fund? So the trading costs would be overstated if linked to just turnover? For instance, VISVX has a turnover of about 18%. Some of this could be reassigned to the funds that acquire the turned over stock. ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1378

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Here's good explanation of the costs of portfolio turnover , and a subsequent bit of research that quantified the impact of hidden trading costs on fund performance. Long story short, the internal trading costs for buying and selling securities within a fund are virtually hidden from investors as a...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1378

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Buffer zones are not a CRSP-only thing. MSCI and S&P both do it. Not sure about Russell. I guess for the SV tilters on this board, it ensures that your fund does not have a negative momentum load which is generally considered a good thing. Thanks. I was more thinking about the stability of the ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1378

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

BlueEars wrote:
siamond wrote:Well... Any taker? :?:

What's wrong with my take?
I tend to be pragmatic. Not abstract enough for the cognoscenti sometimes. :sharebeer

Sorry, I (of course) meant 'any more taker'...
by siamond
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1378

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

siamond wrote:Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing?

Well... Any taker? :?:
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Compare_Portfolios - Cell D4, P4: Include the acronym in the comment - "Year of First (annual) Return" Lazy_Portfolios - Cell D4: ditto Portfolio_Math - Cell D4: ditto Data_TR_USD - Cell A5: Include the text "No historical return available before that year" Data_Misc - Cell A5: ...
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

jc6309 wrote:When is the appropriate time to comment on your work-in-progress (16d)? (It's very minor and certainly can wait.)

As Ladygeek said, just post here, or send me a PM, and I'll process your feedback in due time. Thank in advance for helping.
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 6641

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

Given there are actually a few reality shows on gold mining I doubt it is as unknown as you believe. More importantly in countries where banking systems are still evolving having a compact store of value or one you can wear is a huge advantage. And you really think that the majority of folks watchi...
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 6641

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

There is little discussion that gold is NOT a good investment per se, as explained in previous posts. Its only value is at the portfolio level, where it has demonstrably proven quite valuable in the past (since the early 70s), dampening portfolio overall volatility in recent crisis. Before that, the...
by siamond
Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1378

Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

The ever creative author of PortfolioCharts.com (Tyler) issued a new post a few days ago. For background, you probably need to read his full explanation about the 'stock index calculator'. Here are the links. https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/04/11/tuning-stock-indices-for-a-little-more-accuracy/#mor...
by siamond
Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Investing Without a Spreadsheet.

With my simple Vanguard 3-fund portfolio I manage to retire comfortably withou t a spreadsheet. Cool. And for those of you more spreadsheet-inclined, Taylor's 3-fund portfolio is part of the 25 'lazy portfolios' worksheet, where I just added a couple of new charts to help people compare the proposa...
by siamond
Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Speaking of double work, I do understand that you can't include the F-F data in the spreadsheet due to copyright, but would it be an idea to make a place for it (i.e., even with column names, along with the links to the data that you already have). Assuming it didn't slow the spreadsheet down too m...
by siamond
Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

I do have a question on the naming of "SD vs. MAR" cell: I had expected that MAR refers to market, but digging deeper discovered it's the 30 day T-bill. Is MAR a standard abbreviation for this? It might be worth adding the definition to the "Data Sources" tab, or in the comments...
by siamond
Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 11798

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

Maybe we should come back to the original question being asked? :wink: The common reply is that rebalancing isn't done to improve returns, but to control risk. Without rebalancing, your stocks would dominate over time, which would increase your risk, right? This doesn't make sense to me either. [......
by siamond
Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 990
Views: 542869

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Per your gracious Mar 15 response to my MS Office 2007 Excel problem wherein you reverted the correlation and covariance functions to their pre-Office 2010 status, I have a question as to whether this was the proper long term approach? My tactic, after wrestling with the chagrin of using an antique...
by siamond
Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart
Replies: 18
Views: 3920

Re: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart

Every year they publish the "J.P. Morgan Guide to Markets" which shows up as a PDF. Googling turns up this https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/insights/guide-to-the-markets as where J.P. Morgan seems to be keeping the PDF. It's probably the single best source of interes...
by siamond
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Put $6,500 bonus check to pay off car or max out Roth for the year?
Replies: 29
Views: 1813

Re: Put $6,500 bonus check to pay off car or max out Roth for the year?

rob wrote:The roth is a use it or lose it proposition (you don't get to use it future years).... I would do the roth from what you describe.

Yup, agreed.

OP, don't rush to repay loans with a low interest rate, the math just doesn't add up... I wish I had understood that when I was younger...
by siamond
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart
Replies: 18
Views: 3920

Re: Ben Carlson Drawdown Chart

AlohaJoe wrote:JP Morgan has a similar chart they update every year that I also like

Yes, this is a much better representation. It appears that this chart is regularly updated. Mind sharing the Web page where you found it?
by siamond
Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: We have a lot going on .... Input Requested.
Replies: 62
Views: 6270

Re: We have a lot going on .... Input Requested.

soccerrules, you're not exactly the only one to wake up a tad 'late' in the process. Heck, I did the same. And so did most participants to this forum. So stop beating you up, it's water over the bridge, what matters is the future. And the future will be much brighter, given that you've learned some ...
by siamond
Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 8064

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

siamond, by looking at the historical evidence--that's how you make estimates of returns. Yes, ok, sure, but I was asking for more specific pointers... SRRIX has a very short history. You must have some specific data series in mind. How can we find that? Or some in-depth analysis by an author or an...
by siamond
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 8064

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Just trying to understand a bit better here... Larry said in his article: It’s important to understand that the equity like expected returns (6-8% after fund expenses) associated with accepting the risks of investment in reinsurance are compensation for the risk of occasional large losses. How do we...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5930

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Surprisingly, the worst three year period during the Great Depression with default rates totaling to 12.88 percent barely makes it into the top five credit events for non financials. 12.88% is the actual loss of principal from actual defaults. With a default rate that high, you can be sure that cre...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5930

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Maybe I misunderstood your charts. It appeared that you were maintaining​ a 20/20 Treasury/corporate ratio no matter what equities do. In a stock market crash Treasuries tend to rise while corporate sink. Letting your T/C ratio decrease in such a situation gives you some added benefit not apparent ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5930

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Ok, all this being said, I think we're splitting hairs. Fact is you can put some corporates in your bonds mix or not, and the impact will be truly minimal. Or at least it has been for this time period. Refining the plan on the stock side of things *AND* sticking to the course is way, way more impor...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5930

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

It's not that people overreacted to the magnitude of the drop in corporates. The problem was the fact that it occurred when equities were down 50% or more. Risk should be evaluated as overall portfolio risk, not by looking at asset classes in isolation. Yes, I totally agree with that. I was just tr...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5930

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

... Yes, ok, the corporates had that hiccup in 2008. They dropped by 7%, and quickly recovered (then kind of soared). There was a similar hiccup in 1974 (not visible on the growth chart), with a 6% drop and a recovery the year after. That's definitely not risk in my book, it's just a hiccup. Treasu...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5930

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Siamond: thank you for the graphs. They confirm my views that many BHs have over-reacted to the 2008 transient hiccup that the Intermediate Investment Grade Bond Fund (VFIDX) experienced. Treasuries have had their dips but no similar reaction to them. My reservation about VBILX is its longer durati...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5930

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

Has there been a study about actual defaults of corporate bonds in Vanguard Investment Grade Bond funds that were of significance to the valuation and success of that bond fund? The Vanguard fund with corporate bonds are still relatively new (e.g. VCIT inception date is Nov-09), but we can use the ...
by siamond
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 44
Views: 3060

Re: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]

Yes, that's one of the reasons I find it strange to compare Japan to the US and to say a similar thing might happen in the US. CAPE was like 95 for Japan compared to 29 now for the US. Don't really see the same thing happening now unless there is a huge recession. And if a huge recession happens in...
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:21 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 57190

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Miriam2 wrote:Good lord Siamond :shock: :shock: It must have taken you all day to wrestle that creature :wink: What are all those furry things around its mouth?

Barbels. They feel food on the bottom thanks to them. A moustache with tastebuds, if you wish... Very useful!
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 57190

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

VictoriaF wrote:Wow! It's as big as a mermaid {laughing}

What can I say? As I'm sure you know, retirees with a funny accent tend to attract interesting and lovely people... :wink:
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 57190

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Another pic (heck, you asked!). It barely fit on my landing mat... Good thing I had a monster net with me. :beer

Image
by siamond
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 372
Views: 57190

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

It's improv for both you and the fish. And serendipity for you if you catch some. Please post pictures! Since you ask... Here is an anonymous picture, but yes, I did catch this fish (and released it in good health). This is a smallmouth buffalo. 47 pounds and change. I kid you not. Caught in Texas ...

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