Search found 3421 matches

by siamond
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Portfolio Tracking & Spreadsheets
Replies: 10
Views: 621

Re: Investment Portfolio Tracking & Spreadsheets

I track our current investments in a spreadsheet. Access to corresponding accounts is too sensitive to trust some software package to do so, plus we use 2-factors authentication anyway, which would make automation difficult (this is the entire point!). Plus of course, I added my own customized logic...
by siamond
Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 24
Views: 1245

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

I never cared for Monte-Carlo simulations. This isn't the real world. Garbage in, garbage out. Historical data is imperfect for sure, but at least this is (was) the real world. What we truly need is more real world data. Hopefully, one day, historical research about returns from other countries will...
by siamond
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

The cost of a one way rental will vary a lot depending where they need cars at. If possible you might reverse your trip and start in Austin and end in Atlanta. I might be a lot less expensive going that way. Yes, you're probably right, this is a good point. Well, this all tells me that I should hav...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

Well, I tried again, can't find any better option that the ~$1200 offer from Thrifty... That's $50 a day for 25 days, this remains quite outrageous. Quite a learning experience. My wife suggested to rent a small RV instead of (car + Airbnb), which I have zero experience with, but... we live to learn...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

On a different tact - what about Megabus instead of a rental car? I know people who take it from Austin to Dallas all the time. They say it's pretty comfy, has wifi, etc. Megabus is great, we use it often to go from Boston to New York, but... this is a road/fishing trip, remember? Drive a few hours...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

On a different tact - what about Megabus instead of a rental car? I know people who take it from Austin to Dallas all the time. They say it's pretty comfy, has wifi, etc. Megabus is great, we use it often to go from Boston to New York, but... this is a road/fishing trip, remember? Drive a few hours...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

Atlanta isn't that far from Austin, and you're going to kill two days flying anyway, so this would be a case to just drive. If you'd said a one-week trip that would be one thing but three weeks? No choice but to drive the round trip, it's the better choice in so many ways. Agreed, it is one (fairly...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

I believe you can go to Costcotravel.com and research quotes directly without a membership, you just can't purchase. A full size Enterprise is $1274. That is at a non-airport location in Austin. For almost all rental car agencies (excluding Thrifty and Dollar on Orbitz), regardless of what web site...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

An alternative method that I have used twice before over the years is to buy a used car when I'm ready to return home and then sell it upon my return. There is an element of risk to it buying an unknown vehicle for a long journey but both times I've gotten all my money back minus gas money. I did v...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

You might want to try autoslash. I tried yesterday. Found the same offers I already had found by other means. Nothing beat the Thrifty "Pay Now" option I listed in my (updated) OP. Which remains quite expensive. I may have to swallow the bullet. Will wait a week or so to see if Autoslash comes up w...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

Also - call-up a few rentals Cos directly and see if they waive the "return" fees (throw at them all sort of groupings you belong to: such as Costco, AAA, USAA or working at/for XYZ mega-corp (ideally the one which has large continent of sales force, and need for one-way rentals!)) I am retired, no...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

We have been renting cars for trips via our Costco membership for years. They have been and continue to be the absolute cheapest rentals we can find. It isn't always with the same rental company, but always the cheapest. +1 for Costco too. Last time I rented the guy at Enterprise looked at my conta...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Re: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

Since you mentioned a smaller town near Atlanta- I picked Athens GA as origination. Drop off at Austin airport - Nov 19th 11 am thru Nov 25th 11 am. One week full-size car rental. Total 470 plus taxes etc - coming to $570 for this one week. Priceline it is. My trip is 3-weeks long. Yup, been using ...
by siamond
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$
Replies: 33
Views: 1501

Renting a car from Atlanta GA to Austin TX: $$$

I am planning a road/fishing trip, starting from Atlanta, ending in Austin. Roughly 3 weeks long. The cost of a 3-way flight from my home to Atlanta, then Austin to my home is very reasonable. BUT I hadn't realized that renting a car across states is so expensive. I get hammered by a $400 drop charg...
by siamond
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 125
Views: 11781

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

The historical record shows us that prospective returns are negatively correlated to starting valuations. Am I the only one who finds this very funny? People have actually written papers on this topic! Is it a coincidence when I find a down market, it was high before it went down? I think there mus...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 106
Views: 11927

Re: Using the Funded Ratio to drive your retirement investment plan

The funded ratio (FR) is a metric that can be used to monitor your retirement investment plan. It is simply the ratio of assets to liabilities, where the assets are the size of your portfolio and the liabilities are the present value of your targeted retirement income stream. I never went very far ...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 293
Views: 56625

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Updated roll call for our coming meeting (Dec 9th, 10am, Lincoln library): Committed: siamond (lunch) Norton750 (lunch?) LookingtogetFIRE'd (+ guest, lunch tentative) indecisive (+ guest) (no lunch) sotpatro (lunch?) loserski (lunch) dkg2707 (lunch?) historikerstreit (lunch) kamikazekid (no lunch) r...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3054
Views: 901223

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Blade Runner this afternoon. I agree with the 'way too long' comment, all scenes are drawn out and just last forever. Aside from that, I thought it was well done, the storyline did seem fairly coherent to me, and er, yeah, the bad guys were quite clearly identified (what is it with American movies ...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)
Replies: 44
Views: 4092

Re: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)

What are your thoughts on international bonds vs. corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities (i.e., using Treasuries + international bonds in lieu of TBM which also includes corporate (~27% currently) and even mortgage-backed securities (~23% currently))? Your line of reasoning really intrigued...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Iphone 4
Replies: 37
Views: 1931

Re: Iphone 4

The threat of someone stealing your phone and breaking the 4 digit passcode is negligible imo. It’s not easy to break. The fbi paid a lot of money to do so in a recent case. I can’t imagine crooks would see stealing random phones and cracking them as a profitable business. If your phone gets stolen...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)
Replies: 44
Views: 4092

Re: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)

I find this somewhat odd, especially given the forum's relative acceptance of bond funds like Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index (VBILX), which is comprised of 50% intermediate-term Treasuries and 50% intermediate-term corporate bonds. [...] I get the appeal of the total U.S. bond market index. ...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)
Replies: 44
Views: 4092

Re: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)

I've been researching international bond funds lately. [...] Below are backtest data from Portfolio Visualizer from Jan. 2003 through Sept. 2017 (annually rebalanced, as applicable). [...] I'm curious as to others' thoughts here. Hi zonto. Thank you for sharing your findings. I would caution you a ...
by siamond
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Iphone 4
Replies: 37
Views: 1931

Re: Iphone 4

I've been using an iPhone5 for quite a while, my children make fun of me, but it just does the job well, and I refuse to be caught in the marketing game of upgrading every year or every two years. Yes, the battery is getting a tad weaker, but not that noticeably. I only started to falter a few weeks...
by siamond
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Policy Statement (RPS) -- Is anyone else using one?
Replies: 12
Views: 1126

Re: Retirement Policy Statement (RPS) -- Is anyone else using one?

If you are comfortable with it, I would love some insights into your decision making rules. What are they? How did you structure them? Sure. It's quite simple, a process leveraging on my separation of hard decisions and soft decisions/proposals for a given theme: - Soft decisions capture policies t...
by siamond
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yay, my question was answered by Jack
Replies: 40
Views: 3670

Re: Yay, my question was answered by Jack

My own approach is not very different and just as personal and perhaps wishy-washy. But I am not afraid to present wishy-washy as a perfectly legitimate process for asset allocation. I agree. What matters is not to convince others with an easy to explain simplified framework. It is to truly convinc...
by siamond
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yay, my question was answered by Jack
Replies: 40
Views: 3670

Re: Yay, my question was answered by Jack

Well stated. But one question is how in fact you do or have arrived at your actual invested asset allocation in all this? The idea of Mr. Bogle's recommendation is to devise asset allocation by age in bonds but with SS NPV as a bond. Is that what you do? (I am pretty sure not.) LOL, you guessed rig...
by siamond
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yay, my question was answered by Jack
Replies: 40
Views: 3670

Re: Yay, my question was answered by Jack

Bogleheads....I am a little dense. How exactly do you count SS as part of your bond portfolio? I do not doubt that you can, but I am not really sure about how to go about doing that. As other posters already indicated, and as Jack keeps repeating, SS clearly has to be accounted for in your thinking...
by siamond
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Policy Statement (RPS) -- Is anyone else using one?
Replies: 12
Views: 1126

Re: Retirement Policy Statement (RPS) -- Is anyone else using one?

I never understood the focus on "Investment" and the "IPS" terminology. As I was planning for early retirement, there were multiple topics (policies) that I wanted to put in writing that just didn't fit in an IPS, starting by the most important, how to withdraw from my portfolio. I pondered about a ...
by siamond
Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1960

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

for example, pick any stock you would like for 2017 YTD. chart out its closing prices as of Jan 3. through Nov. 9. Find the volatility. Find the return. Now, take the same time period, but also chart the intraday highs and lows in addition to the closing prices. Find the volatility. Find the return...
by siamond
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 125
Views: 11781

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

A Black Swan event exhibits a fat-tailed distribution. See. No, black swan events do not have fat-tailed distributions, they have inconclusive distributions. Taleb calls fat-tailed distribution events 'gray swans' - but they are a distinct concept. Mr Taleb disagrees. On page 170 of his book The Bl...
by siamond
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1960

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

One more point for the OP. In addition of making little sense in real-life as a measure of concrete risk, using volatility for risk ALSO displays weird mathematical quirks. A great post was recently written about the Ulcer Index (an intriguing risk metric), and the corresponding explanation which de...
by siamond
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1960

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

OP, in common language, as Bobcat2 observed, risk is usually associated with loss. The trouble is many investors jump to the conclusion that this must mean "loss of value" (of one's portfolio). Which is certainly an important factor, notably on the emotional side of things (never, never underestimat...
by siamond
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?
Replies: 67
Views: 4232

Re: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?

From a numerical standpoint, it is a bit silly, there is value in selling those shares at a loss - to take a tax cut in the process. From an emotional standpoint, I can see where the OP is coming from. We all claim that we learn from our mistakes, but that is not a very reliable process, to say the ...
by siamond
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What backup service to use?
Replies: 28
Views: 2055

Re: What backup service to use?

I used Mozy for a while, then got tired of their never-stopping price increases. In a world of many pictures and videos (which I like to archive), their pricing was getting out of whack. I switched to Google Drive a few years ago, and find it great in terms of convenience and price. I also REALLY li...
by siamond
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new security key option
Replies: 115
Views: 25274

Re: Vanguard's new security key option

I won't admit here to ever sharing my credentials with my spouse, but once I learned from this forum that you can grant access to certain features of your account to other users, this is what I did. Much easier to keep an eye on my wife's accounts by having them simply appear within mine than havin...
by siamond
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5060

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

More return for more risk could be possible though. But what could be the use for this? Does anyone really want more than TSM's risk level or really need more than TSM's return level? All I think we should care about is risk-adjusted return. Of course you can argue about how to measure "risk." <ran...
by siamond
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do telecom stocks have a future?
Replies: 64
Views: 3308

Re: Do telecom stocks have a future?

brad.clarkston wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:16 am
There is absolutely no competition in the USA.
Oh yeah, this is vey true. A fact that makes many specialists from other countries roll their eyes in disbelief.
by siamond
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do telecom stocks have a future?
Replies: 64
Views: 3308

Re: Do telecom stocks have a future?

I was a Telecom specialist for several decades, with a broad technical and business knowledge. So yes, I could make an extensive commentary on the shift from wireline to wireless (said wireless using a wireline infrastructure right after the first few hundred yards, by the way), on the commoditizati...
by siamond
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 125
Views: 11781

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

EnjoyIt, some of your reasoning is a tad debatable, as other posters pointed out. But still, you are on the right track. The key here is really flexibility and adaptability. Which are the antithesis of this non-sensical 4% rule, and the "plan for the worst" mentality. - You need a system by which yo...
by siamond
Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Voice Verification
Replies: 35
Views: 3413

Re: Vanguard Voice Verification

Finally got to it. Got a bit of a snag with the "Call me" Web page not working properly with Google Chrome, I switched to Safari, and everything worked well (and I have a strong accent). I like the idea of voice recognition replacing stupid security questions... They don't use a second factor? A se...
by siamond
Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Voice Verification
Replies: 35
Views: 3413

Re: Vanguard Voice Verification

Finally got to it. Got a bit of a snag with the "Call me" Web page not working properly with Google Chrome, I switched to Safari, and everything worked well (and I have a strong accent). I like the idea of voice recognition replacing stupid security questions...
by siamond
Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new security key option
Replies: 115
Views: 25274

Re: Vanguard's new security key option

Also most 2FA systems do NOT ask you for a phone number, they send the message to a preconfigured number. Are there 2FA systems that ask you where to send the code? (and if so, hopefully they don't just accept any random number...) :shock: I've seen 2FA systems asking you for the full phone number,...
by siamond
Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new security key option
Replies: 115
Views: 25274

Re: Vanguard's new security key option

My phone is protected by fingerprint login. Besides, it's not enough to steal my phone and get the second factor compromised - you still have to know the password, which is the first factor, and it's not on the phone (well, not in plain text anyway;). Sorry if I'm slow, but I don't understand why y...
by siamond
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new security key option
Replies: 115
Views: 25274

Re: Vanguard's new security key option

I have been thinking of switching my SMS backup (when I get my Yubico key) to my Google Voice number, which I don’t really use for anything else. That is what I do for all SMS-based 2FA setups. I get message in hangouts and email copy to my Gogole account. Since the Google account is protected by 2...
by siamond
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios
Replies: 24
Views: 3303

Re: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios

Just saw this thread and now I know why the major changes occurred. Thanks. It looks like this really affected the SV and SG funds. Sorry, I missed this observation. Yes, you are absolutely right. The smart guy from Seeking Alpha who figured it out before anybody else had the very exact same observ...
by siamond
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Break My Love Affair With Fidelity Low Priced Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 5938

Re: Help Me Break My Love Affair With Fidelity Low Priced Stock

hushpuppy wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:08 pm
So, OP (Small Law Survivor), just curious... What did you decide and what input, if any, influenced your decision?
I am curious too. And it would be good if this thread could come back to its original topic... :?
by siamond
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3289

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

I just got finished reading this series: https://finpage.blog/2017/03/18/investing-in-the-world-part-1/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-2/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-3/ Based on the data, equities split as 75% World + 25% Domestic held up...
by siamond
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios
Replies: 24
Views: 3303

Re: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios

What do you use Price/Earnings ratios for? Mostly to compute expected returns (as a probabilistic quantity), which help in turn for mid/long-term financial planning. Very similar to what our mentors do. Numerous people on this forum do something similar. I personally use E/P more than P/E in such c...
by siamond
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios
Replies: 24
Views: 3303

Re: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios

Maybe this illustrates the difficulty in making too much of historical comparisons? Price charts are one thing, valuation quite another. Well, this certainly makes the point that one has to use data series using a consistent methodology, e.g. like Prof. Shiller does. Unfortunately, it appears that ...
by siamond
Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios
Replies: 24
Views: 3303

Re: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios

For those of us who want to continue using P/E ratios that include companies with negative earnings, does anyone know a source of this information for Vanguard's mutual funds (i.e. not ETFs?). I've been tracking the P/E for several Vanguard funds and not every fund has an ETF equivalent; this is pa...