Search found 3843 matches

by siamond
Fri May 25, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1112
Views: 610878

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

thank you for this fine work! I was reading a thread about merriman that included this link to published returns of his portfolio: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/UBH-FTYAA-Tables-50-50-0-2017-Returns-Update.pdf when I change the starting year to 1970 in the lazy portfolio tab, ...
by siamond
Wed May 23, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 14
Views: 2445

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

I don't care much about having such option in the annuity, but if this is an indication of Vanguard preparing for a regular low cost index fund centered on Global Bonds, that I would be interested for my regular investments. It appears that it was an indication after all....Vanguard is now launchin...
by siamond
Mon May 21, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 437
Views: 83395

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Personally, I think that PMT based schemes are "the best". They are transparent in their construction. They don't rely on historical fitting of data. They are easy to understand. They are flexible. They are easy to adjust for personal circumstances or tastes. (Maybe you need to plan a 45 year retir...
by siamond
Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 9952

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

US Stocks right now have a forward earnings yield of around 6%. Add in around 2% in earnings growth (tagged to real GDP growth) and that is almost an 8% real return. That's not really that bad. I am afraid you are confusing earning yield and dividend yield. Expected (real) returns for the US stock ...
by siamond
Sun May 20, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 8501

Re: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation

Volatility smoothing is the only reason one should own bonds. The rebalancing bonus is a myth. If you actually do the math, the drag from the bonds outweighs any bonus you get from rebalancing into stocks “on sale”. In other words, bonds, for a young accumulator, are there to insure against behavio...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 9952

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

So what should we invest in besides stocks? Direct real estate - rental properties. What about REITs - U.S. and International? US REITs were quite correlated in the past with small and mid size value stocks (SCV/MCV), while returning less premium. I see little reason for Int'l REITs to behave other...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 9952

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

US Stocks right now have a forward earnings yield of around 6%. Add in around 2% in earnings growth (tagged to real GDP growth) and that is almost an 8% real return. That's not really that bad. I am afraid you are confusing earning yield and dividend yield. Expected (real) returns for the US stock ...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement
Replies: 37
Views: 2539

Re: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement

All your comments are helping me think this through, thank you. Any more tips from those close or retired? Many people already gave *THE* primary advice. Get in a habit of carefully tracking your expenses every month. Keep doing it until (and after) you retire. It's like brushing your teeth, it's a...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story
Replies: 38
Views: 3371

Re: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story

For whatever reason, I keep receiving paper copies of Barron's although I never subscribed... Usually, it goes straight in the recycling can, but this time, I read an article from beginning to end (yes, the one about Bogle, of course). Jack's picture is on the cover, by the way, which made me smile ...
by siamond
Fri May 18, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Mechanics
Replies: 17
Views: 1385

Re: Asset Allocation Mechanics

BUT, like for you, retirement is coming into focus as a reality and not just some future "ideal". So, my present mind set is now more similar to yours (relating to not re-living 2008) as expressed. What i worry about a bit is that the basis for such thinking is really psychological and not necessar...
by siamond
Thu May 17, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Mechanics
Replies: 17
Views: 1385

Re: Asset Allocation Mechanics

We are out of balance asset allocation wise. [...] Some facts: [...] roughly 80/20 stock to bond If I understand well, you are currently at 80/20, this wasn't really planned, and you'd like to rebalance to... something else. Trouble is you didn't define what is this 'something else', so it is hard ...
by siamond
Thu May 17, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5737

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

1. From the first two plots, the risk-premium for equities seems to significantly shrink after around 1955. In other words, the CAGR seems to go from 1% average to ~0.5% average while the stddev differential remains very consistent (~2%). I'm not sure if this is an anomaly with the dataset being us...
by siamond
Wed May 16, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for Aging Parents
Replies: 7
Views: 822

Re: Asset Allocation for Aging Parents

. . . invest it all in say Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX), a fixed 60/40 allocation, following the good old sage advice from Peter Bernstein. Or maybe the Conservative Growth Fund (40/60) if they are really itchy about the vagaries of the stock market. Do not fall for the Target...
by siamond
Wed May 16, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for Aging Parents
Replies: 7
Views: 822

Re: Asset Allocation for Aging Parents

Let me suggest a two-step approach. First, don't meander, they should go straight with the simplest choice possible, invest it all in say Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX), a fixed 60/40 allocation, following the good old sage advice from Peter Bernstein. Or maybe the Conservative G...
by siamond
Wed May 16, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5737

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

At a glance it seems like the 85/15 still came out ahead despite being more volatile right? Does that mean as long as you can manage volatility and handle a downswing without selling, the 85/15 was best? Might be beating a dead horse with that one but just thought I'd ask. Well, I would agree with ...
by siamond
Tue May 15, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 380
Views: 64852

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Well, I guess it is time for me to post my bragging picture of the year... This was in Texas, Trinity river, in March 2018. I actually caught a bigger fish than that since then, but this one is special... Check those teeth! :shock:

Image
by siamond
Tue May 15, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are bonds really needed - why not 100% stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5355

Re: Are bonds really needed - why not 100% stocks?

Let me ask this: If one has a sufficiently low SWR, say 3%, then wouldn't 100% stocks still have succeeded over the history of the stock market? Sure things can be different in the future, but with such a low withdrawal rate and flexibility to lower it even further in the event of a crash, I believ...
by siamond
Tue May 15, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are bonds really needed - why not 100% stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5355

Re: Are bonds really needed - why not 100% stocks?

I plan to retire in about 15 years, right about the same time my nephew will be starting college. My brother has a 529 for my nephew. In both my case and that of my nephew, the "advised" allocation is 75% stocks and 25% bonds. Given that bonds tend not to earn, and just smooth volatility, is there ...
by siamond
Mon May 14, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap value tilt
Replies: 15
Views: 1947

Re: Small cap value tilt

When I started moving to passive investing, I had quite a few diverse bets like the OP does. With various 5%-ish allocations. Then I realized that the historical record for large value (in the US) showed absolutely no meaningful premium, none. And I don't mean over the past 15 or 20 years. I mean ov...
by siamond
Mon May 14, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5737

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

This Marketwatch article says that as a general rule of thumb, "every additional 10% of your portfolio in equities adds about one half of a percentage point per year to your return." If that's correct (perhaps someone more experienced can speak to it), it should be a helpful way to look at the retu...
by siamond
Mon May 14, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9908

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

That said, I think the "myths" he is referring to are more ones he reads on various early retirement blogs as opposed to what we read on Bogleheads. Yes, ERN's post is clearly a response to the FIRE community, not to the Boglehead community! I had not realized that, good point. I still think the ge...
by siamond
Sun May 13, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9908

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

The author is obviously a smart guy, with a solid ability to crunch numbers and to write about his findings. Some of his writings are truly excellent. And yet, every time he discusses variable withdrawal methods, he seems to get stuck in "SWR thinking mode" and "myth busting", and just never goes to...
by siamond
Sun May 13, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1112
Views: 610878

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Regarding Backtest-Portfolio-returns-rev17b - I noticed that the annual returns from 1985 are no longer listed year by year on the lazy portfolio tab. Am I missing something - is there an easy way to display it? What I found valuable about this page was that even though annual data - it at least gi...
by siamond
Sat May 12, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Setting up a new 401k for a small non-profit - advice?
Replies: 6
Views: 561

Re: Setting up a new 401k for a small non-profit - advice?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=246289 There may be useful information in the above thread. Basically options I talked to were Guideline, Employee Fiduciary and Vanguard. Guideline was cheapest and was full service, but they don’t have target date funds and employee assistance is w...
by siamond
Sat May 12, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k for small businesses
Replies: 2
Views: 450

Re: 401k for small businesses

I was checking this thread from last year... Captain401 renamed itself as Human Interest . Their pricing remains very attractive for the employer, but shifts the burden on employees by slapping a 0.5% fee on top of index funds like Vanguard, which defeats the point of using low-costs investment vehi...
by siamond
Fri May 11, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Setting up a new 401k for a small non-profit - advice?
Replies: 6
Views: 561

Re: Setting up a new 401k for a small non-profit - advice?

Well first, only employees can be participants in a 401k plan. If the plan has been allowing contractors and "indirectly related parties" (whatever that is) to participate, the plan has been in violation of IRS regulations. Sorry, I wasn't clear. The existing 401k is indeed for regular employees. I...
by siamond
Fri May 11, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Setting up a new 401k for a small non-profit - advice?
Replies: 6
Views: 561

Setting up a new 401k for a small non-profit - advice?

I have been asked to help by the financial head of a small non-profit (with less than 10 regular employees - plus various contractors and indirectly related parties). They inherited an atrocious 401k from their predecessors, the kind where the least expensive fund has a 0.97% ER and a 1% administrat...
by siamond
Fri May 11, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 195
Views: 41490

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Well, the recent per-country data IS available from other sources, you should be able to do a smart mix & match. And I think my use case is very important, actually, people (notably in the US) really need to learn to think 'out of sample', or big mistakes will be made by many, I'm afraid. As to the ...
by siamond
Thu May 10, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 195
Views: 41490

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

From Tyler's latest write-up... Believe it or not, the hardest part wasn’t updating the calculations behind the scenes but designing the user interface to incorporate more than 50 asset options in a way that is still easy to use. Hm. I understand this wasn't easy, but I must say I find it confusing,...
by siamond
Thu May 10, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5737

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

I don't think I understand the outputs. I put in the data for allocation and everything else and it seems every simulation crashes to zero. Maybe I'm reading wrong. Is there a thread that will explain better the outputs of this spreadsheet. Thank you very much. Please check carefully the README tab...
by siamond
Thu May 10, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5737

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

As a quantitative matter, how much difference would it really make if I were 70/30 instead of 85/15? OP, if you're minimally conversant with spreadsheets, I would suggest that you play around with the Simba backtesting spreadsheet . This will allow you to model various Asset Allocations and see how...
by siamond
Mon May 07, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value
Replies: 12
Views: 1216

Re: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value

Given the fairly consistent concept that small caps outperform large caps over the long term [...] Hm, I am afraid this is a bit of a hasty statement. First (but I'm sure this is what you meant), small-caps blend (SCB) outperform ed large caps in the past, which doesn't guarantee this will repeat i...
by siamond
Sat May 05, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed
Replies: 20
Views: 2678

Re: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed

But, OTOH, with your 15% figure you are assuming passive equity consists only of mutual funds and ETFs. Some institutional money is also passive. My pension fund is 38% passive and for the 457 plan, employer offers collective investment trusts in lieu of index mutual funds in several categories. Ye...
by siamond
Fri May 04, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Online resource for current Boglehead 3 fund portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 980

Re: Online resource for current Boglehead 3 fund portfolio

I’m looking for a source of standard data. Not a future prediction, just YTD returns or a rolling average of last 12 months returns. In a Google Sheet, you can use the formula =GoogleFinance("VTSMX", "returnytd")% to get the YTD return of the US total market. Do the same for your favorite internati...
by siamond
Thu May 03, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 27
Views: 3288

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

It is interesting the US's low volatility (second lowest, after Canada) and 4th lowest drawdown (after Canada, France(!?), and Switzerland) translates to very pedestrian retirement income streams (9th place out of 16, so not even in the top 50%). It feels like more evidence suggesting that volatili...
by siamond
Wed May 02, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio peepers: what do you do?
Replies: 48
Views: 3923

Re: Portfolio peepers: what do you do?

This was discussed here.

Bottomline: you learn. Instead of trying to live in a cocoon, and then truly panic when the (unspeakable) hits the fan...
by siamond
Wed May 02, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?! [Vanguard Small-Cap Index]
Replies: 41
Views: 3518

Re: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?!

Personally, I couldn't care less about whatever dubious methodology Morningstar uses, or changes from/to. Between the star system, the P/E computation and more, Morningstar clearly proved their strong shortcomings when it comes to methodology. Morningstar should be used to obtain factual and histori...
by siamond
Tue May 01, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 325
Views: 68312

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

I also just signed up and would love to join this group. Is the next meeting in June? Count me in - would love to get more details. Thanks for your help! Here are the dates for the coming meetings: - Jun 23rd 2018: 10am to noon, followed by social lunch. - Sep 22nd 2018: 1pm to 4pm. Please contact ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources
Replies: 13
Views: 1675

Re: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources

It seems that we're in agreement here. I'll include this IIA Int'l Small data series for 1975-1994 in the next update of the Simba spreadsheet, probably for a mid-year update. I'll mark it as a 'crude mapping' though, if only due to the 'mid-cap-y' skew of the IIA series. Many thanks for the discuss...
by siamond
Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Source For Older Stock Data
Replies: 9
Views: 858

Re: New Source For Older Stock Data

Could individual country series better help backtesters to do out of sample tests? This is exactly what I had in mind while listing option #3 above, but Simplegift is right that this would depart from Simba's general aim. Plus it would then make more sense to do it using local currency and local in...
by siamond
Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Source For Older Stock Data
Replies: 9
Views: 858

Re: New Source For Older Stock Data

That said, if I were to add one new asset to Simba from the IIA database it would be International SCV. While I agree that appropriate index fund availability is a problem and one would need to be smart about how to apply the information to their own portfolio expectations, I can also see how it wo...
by siamond
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Source For Older Stock Data
Replies: 9
Views: 858

Re: New Source For Older Stock Data

I've been mulling over this IIA data set, pondering what would be desirable to extend Simba (besides the obvious move of extending the International Small data series ). And... I am not sure this is desirable, actually. 1. International Small-Cap Value? Complementing MSCI World (or ACWI) Small Value...
by siamond
Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1112
Views: 610878

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

For reference, the discussion about International Small was re-opened in light of a new data source (Independence International Associates, aka IIA):
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206489&p=3902671#p3902228
by siamond
Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources
Replies: 13
Views: 1675

Re: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources

Thus it's hard to escape the sense that the IIA international "small cap" index is likely a mid-cap index in disguise — which, though it may move roughly in sync with international small companies, is not likely to be capturing the distinctive volatility and return premium of a true small cap index...
by siamond
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources
Replies: 13
Views: 1675

Re: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources

Let's re-open this thread about International Small Stocks. The current approach in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet is to use: - DFA Int'l Small Cap Index (DFA Matrix) 1982-1994 - MSCI ACWI Ex USA Small NR USD 1995-2009 - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund (VFSVX) 2010+ Some of us ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Source For Older Stock Data
Replies: 9
Views: 858

Re: New Source For Older Stock Data

Thanks, Tyler. I'd like to emphasize that this is really a treasure trove of historical data, providing full total-return history for 22 countries, with breakdowns using the usual size/value factors, and groupings per geographical theater. Those series can be easily combined with either French-Fama ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 22
Views: 3238

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

Ok, I think we have a consensus here. I'll include this IFCG / Credit Suisse data series for EM 1976-1987 in the next update of the Simba spreadsheet, probably for a mid-year update. I'll mark it as a 'crude mapping' though, if only due to the non-investible aspect of the IFCG index. Many thanks for...
by siamond
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need to download historical stock prices from URL
Replies: 7
Views: 933

Re: I need to download historical stock prices from URL

How could I obtain a list of Morningstar SecId + Ticker? Thanks in advance. Well, there is no such (public) list, unfortunately. The way I proceed is to start typing keywords in the Morningstar search box. For example, type "S&P 500", and you'll see a list of various indices matching those keywords...
by siamond
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 22
Views: 3238

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

AlohaJoe wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:13 pm
It would better if the IFCI index were rebased to end-88 IFCG (index of end-88 MSCI World) but just from eye balling it, it appears the IFCI and IFCG have mostly the same big drops and drops.
Oh yes, the two series are highly correlated, this is clear from the graph.
by siamond
Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 22
Views: 3238

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

I would actually vote against it. [..] I am a little hesitant too, this is why I wanted to have such open discussion. Your points basically elaborate on the list of 'cons' I listed. But you view them as conveying more weight than the other posters so far. I can understand. This being said, one coul...