Search found 44 matches

by sean.mcgrath
Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

I guess I shouldn't travel when I have an open topic -- I get behind! In any case, it looks like the thread as run its course. Thanks for all the helpful inputs. A couple of replies to the last posts. Just to add to my previous post, you need to additionally model two things 1) Tax drag from re bala...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

I have a more serious/ operational question in terms of learning from you guys. How do you guys actually implement this in terms of accumulation or withdrawals? If there are lets say 2 assets in one's portfolio and they zig and zag and are uncorrelated, then on paper this doesn't help you, unless y...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

Sure, I try to quantify it. Or, maybe "quantify" isn't quite the right word because it implies boiling it down to single, simple numbers. Thanks, Joe! Funny enough I was just on that site before I posted, took a brief look at the drawdown, and thought "that's a dumb graph, I want the...
by sean.mcgrath
Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

dbr wrote:The OP suggested at least the expected mean and expected SD, the usefulness of SD being a point for discussion.


Indeed. I'm happy to broaden my question to "expected mean and variation," where posters are free to use a more useful measure than SD for variation.
by sean.mcgrath
Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

I agree that people are often selectively dismissive about past returns. Just because I don't like standard deviation doesn't mean there aren't other measures out there that I like better. I mentioned one: length & breadth of drawdown. Semideviation is an improvement on standard deviation, espe...
by sean.mcgrath
Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

. Target = 75:25 stock:bond portfolio, with 0.2/0.4 size/value load in equities, and 0.5 term load in bonds. Actual performance over last 14 years in comparison to two 'market' portfolios with the same stock:bond split 2003-2016: Annualized return / 2008 return 9.3% / -28.7 = Actual portfolio 7.5% ...
by sean.mcgrath
Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

Obviously whether this or Strict Rules of Bogle outperforms will be known only in the fullness of time, so we're throwing darts blindfolded. (We're real close to the board though. :happy ) I kind of enjoy all the finoodling it requires, and am capable of doing it. Hi Johnnie, yes that's a bit why I...
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

I'm expecting to beat the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund performance by about 1% on average over the years. I'm also expecting to beat the tilted DFA Global Allocation 60/40 Portfolio Institutional Class mutual fund as well, but by a lesser percentage. I don't know about standard deviat...
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 78
Views: 4791

What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

Hi all, So I've been reading the famous Fama and French out of pure curiosity. In principle I can buy the idea that a reasonable risk/return model could have more than one variable, and that Value and Size might significantly improve the predictive behavior of the model. However, when I estimate how...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on "stuff" for kids?
Replies: 53
Views: 3507

Re: How much do you spend on "stuff" for kids?

Books is actually the big spend category at $900. DD is a voracious reader and DS is getting there. Between Amazon, 3 library sales and some bookstore trips our total books spend last year was $1860, and I would say half was for her. This is the one area I am seriously prone to impulse purchasing, ...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Austrian Bogle needs help with first Vanguard ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 635

Re: Austrian Bogle needs help with first Vanguard ETF

Hi, first of all let me thank you for your support. I thought that I was already somewhat prepared to start investing. But as you have proven me there is still a long way to go. In regard to the portfolio positioning I might have a closer look at the advice given by sean.mcgrath. Following setup lo...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wedding cash gift
Replies: 68
Views: 3585

Re: Wedding cash gift

I was hoping that some people in this forum could tell me a little bit about what they did during wedding planning to cut costs and how much they ended up spending. Any arguments against having a wedding at all are also welcome. Just a young couple looking for some advice. Good news! All the best w...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Austrian Bogle needs help with first Vanguard ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 635

Re: Austrian Bogle needs help with first Vanguard ETF

Hi Jonathan, Hi Sean, thanks for your reply. The links are very useful. Lets see if I understood the information fully: Currency risk: As understood you will always have the currency risk when underlying assets are traded in foreign currency. My example: I bought a USD traded fund in EUR. So therefo...
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Austrian Bogle needs help with first Vanguard ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 635

Re: Austrian Bogle needs help with first Vanguard ETF

Welcome, AB I can't comment on the specific situation in Austria, but +1 for Interactive Brokers. From the Netherlands they are very convenient. Personally, I would worry about currency risk with your strategy. Having the S&P 500 quoted in Euros does nothing to change it being predominantly doll...
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Resident in Netherlands, South american citizen / Portfolio Checkup
Replies: 2
Views: 154

Re: Resident in Netherlands, South american citizen / Portfolio Checkup

Broker / Bank: Given our case, it would be worth considering an offshore bank who isn't dependent on the country we choose to live, especially if/when we move back to Latin America. If I knew about a safe and cost-mindful alternative… but so far I haven’t found any concrete options that met both re...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Absolute newbie, 29/f dual-citizen of Netherlands and the US
Replies: 3
Views: 435

Re: Absolute newbie, 29/f dual-citizen of Netherlands and the US

Hi! I want to invest a sizeable chunk of the 30,000 and 15,000 into mutual funds/index funds. I think my choices may be somewhat limited in the Netherlands due to my American citizenship. So I have been pointed to Vanguard. I've found that I can't open an account there, or at Fidelity, or possibly ...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P at 22 times multiple
Replies: 40
Views: 4632

Re: S&P at 22 times multiple

I would take this with a HUGE grain of salt based on real data. The primary problem with this well known equation is that it ignores share dilution. The returns a company gets or a country's stock market gets are irrelevant: what matter is the return you get. That comes from EARNINGS PER SHARE. Hi ...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment [determining risk tolerance?]
Replies: 6
Views: 380

Re: Investment [determining risk tolerance?]

Buddtholomew wrote:Thanks for the ^ link.
I'm sure someone has computed the CAGR for the various allocations over the time period in the article.
Does it produce different results, higher, lower?
Interested to know.


Hi Bud,

David's link has historical CAGRs.

cheers,
Sean
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P at 22 times multiple
Replies: 40
Views: 4632

Re: S&P at 22 times multiple

Price = Earnings*(1+g) / (k-g) where g is the growth rate and k is the required rate of return. So P/E is (1+g) /(k-g) Hi Bogglegrappler, That's pretty interesting. So if I take LadyGeek's recent post (Credit Suisse yearbook) about the World return on equity being 5.1% from 1900 - 2016, and assume ...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Boglehead Millionaire
Replies: 65
Views: 7736

Re: New Boglehead Millionaire

Hi Noob, First, congratulations! Second, I went back to your original thread and followed your months of agony -- I hate to admit it, but I fully enjoyed reading 8-) This thread is a classic: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=109785&p=1595992#p1595992 . I suggest you celeb...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

yes, I think we're pretty much in line. Re. away from plate boundary models (and realize I have not touched a geophysics book in 25 years), I think the mechanics are pretty well known, but there is less of a "grand model," and more localized ones. Still much better then our market models, ...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

The black boxes that have been added around Oklahoma City and a few other places are where "Areas where suspected nontechtonic earthquakes are not included" which is a roundabout way of saying they are area where the map is likely not accurate because the oil fracking is causing earthquak...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Could you clarify? My impression is we have limited knowledge of when the next big NW quake & tsunami occurrs? In fact it is only since about 2000 that there has been a consensus that it occurred before, around 1700? Hi Value, The chart was predicting earthquakes in the next 10,000 years, not d...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Building a US-listed ETF portfolio suitable for a Eurozone resident (US expat): Advice?
Replies: 1
Views: 152

Re: Building a US-listed ETF portfolio suitable for a Eurozone resident (US expat): Advice?

Hi US, Welcome to the forum! Please realize that I don't really know what I am doing, but given that we are in a pretty similar situation I will share with you what I have done. Perhaps the blind can help the blind. Bear in mind that my income is not below the Foreign Earned Income Threshold, and th...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Hmm, going on a tangent here, but it's not often I get to use my geophysics education on this forum :beer I'm not convinced that the earthquake analogy is a good one. Predicting earthquakes is actually pretty easy, and we know much more about the underlying mechanics (which will apply also in the fu...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard going after more of the European market
Replies: 1
Views: 470

Re: Vanguard going after more of the European market

If only they'd sell to Americans in Europe, like they do to Americans in Canada...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding forex trading
Replies: 1
Views: 235

Re: Understanding forex trading

Hi Someone, What exactly do you mean by realizing profits and losses; where do you see them? I use Interactive Brokers, and my account has a "base currency" of Euros. In their reports they break down my profit/loss into two components: the P/L of the currency of my investment (USD, same as...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return
Replies: 16
Views: 1924

Re: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return

It shouldn't really have an explicit relationship to GDP growth, but to the return on capital of the companies involved. For wildly fast-growing economies (or companies), the return will be less than the growth in value as they suck in cash (and have to offer a return for it). Here's a link that exp...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage Success Stories
Replies: 52
Views: 5366

Re: Leverage Success Stories

IMO, there are two key points about being successful with leverage. First of all, use leverage only after learning the basics well. Secondly, use leverage moderately. Hi Park, Do you have ways to quantify that? I have tried to do it in two ways: 1. at what leverage does a leveraged simulation alway...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % is US Market Cap?
Replies: 18
Views: 1619

Re: What % is US Market Cap?

In short, lots of double counting. Not a good metric. To the OP, why not use free float market cap? It represents what the investable market is. The arguments for free float are many, the arguments against are few. Hi Alex, Thanks for the reply. To be honest, for my own portfolio I don't see a need...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % is US Market Cap?
Replies: 18
Views: 1619

Re: What % is US Market Cap?

I can't guarantee it's right, but here's the one I use: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-stock-exchanges-by-size/

cheers,
Sean
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please judge my investing plan (Netherlands)
Replies: 12
Views: 1051

Re: Please judge my investing plan (Netherlands)

Hoi Steffan, pkcrafter's replies look good to me. Re. the currency issue: I think there is something on the Wiki about it, but the key distinction is between the "reporting currency" and the "underlying currency." It doesn't matter what currency the ETF is quoted in, it will adju...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage and time horizons
Replies: 0
Views: 241

Leverage and time horizons

Ok, I've been thinking about AA/leverage/time horizons for a while now and just plowed through the fascinating thread and links in "Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?" But what I miss is a quantification of the relationship of volatility to time horizons. I tried Google, but don't...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)
Replies: 56
Views: 6125

Re: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)

I've been doing this (MTM option). :shock: :shock: :shock: I was too limited in my thinking when I posted the question to Americans living in Europe. Yes, I understand the idea for estate planning -- there can be all sorts of reasons to want to have the fund domiciled locally or outside the US. To ...
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)
Replies: 56
Views: 6125

Re: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)

Looks really nice. Now I'm hoping to find someone who has actually done this, before I plunge in :-)
by sean.mcgrath
Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?
Replies: 10
Views: 1384

Re: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?

Thanks all for the replies -- it's useful for me to see what other Europe-based US expats do! Hi Jose, I suspect you underestimate the FX risk, and overestimate the amount that a heavily weighted US portfolio is currency neutral -- but I don't have any analysis behind that. In any case, I am looking...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)
Replies: 56
Views: 6125

Re: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)

Wow, that looks great LadyG! Amazingly official :happy Extremely minor edits: "Each block of shares purchased at a different time need to be" should be ""Each block of shares purchased at a different time needs to be"" and "In many cases, a Qualified Electing Fund ...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?
Replies: 10
Views: 1384

Re: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?

Hi Laurels, Yes, that's a good question -- it depends a bit how many of my givens you want to challenge :happy . The short term problem is that I want to invest as simply as possible in a broad index tracked Euro bond fund without onerous Dutch or US tax consequences. The medium term (1 - 2 years ou...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?
Replies: 10
Views: 1384

Re: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?

Hi Mick,

Thanks. Yes, the page was helpful -- my remaining questions are about the "US citizen" dimension to the story.

Cheers,
Sean
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)
Replies: 56
Views: 6125

Re: Wiki (?) - Investing as an expat (US citizen living abroad)

Hi LadyGeek, After reading your terrifying Wiki on US citizens residing abroad, I have dived deep into the PFIC topic. Below is a proposed edit to this section of your Wiki page -- I am not in any way a financial / legal expert, but have researched thoroughly and provided the links. p.s. In general ...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?
Replies: 10
Views: 1384

Re: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?

Hi Ted, Thanks for the reply. Yes, I was tempted to put that down as an option. I'd need to look into bond pricing to understand what I'm doing, but in general holding individual bonds seems to be a more realistic option than for stocks. Might be the most sensible. While it could be a solution for t...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When is it "OK" to get a car loan?
Replies: 42
Views: 3630

Re: When is it "OK" to get a car loan?

I 100% agree with "if you can't pay cash with it, you can't afford it." Only reason to borrow (or raid emergency) for a car is for a first job where there is absolutely no other option. Bite the bullet and wait, and work hard to sell the Viper at a good price. Anything else is a deeply sli...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?
Replies: 10
Views: 1384

US citizens resident in Europe -- what do you do?

Calling US citizen Bogleheads resident in Europe, particularly those who are here more-or-less permanently -- how do you invest? In my specific case, I want to invest in Euro bonds (to counter a wildly equities and USD based portfolio). After reading the ugly US person living abroad article, I have ...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-US funds/ETFs registered with the SEC [US person abroad]
Replies: 0
Views: 95

Non-US funds/ETFs registered with the SEC [US person abroad]

After a while of lurking, I am slowly getting my head around the dreaded PFIC. As a US citizen resident in the Netherlands, I am curious whether anyone knows of any European funds/ETFs which are registered with the SEC. From what I read, this would be the simplest solution.

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