Search found 1962 matches

by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

chevca wrote:
If one has to go to examples to make their point..... :wink: :happy


The point was made. The example was included to help illustrate the point. This is a common convention. Not sure what you intended to communicate here.
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

So by that logic you are never really going to know if your reasoning was flawed, will you? If your reasoning really was wrong, for example you threw dice or darts to decide, and after 23 years the optimal answer came out to exactly what you had guessed, it would have been a faulty decision and the...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Except it's not at all like arguing that. We can all guarantee what 2+2 is now and will be in the future. None of us know what is right or wrong, nor can we predict what will be right in the future US vs INT. But, one side sure seems to think they know and can predict better than the other on the i...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Even for those who do care, it probably is in the correct vicinity of "as good as any other". Seems like "correct" percentage of international stock for a US investor is really a murky topic. The graph of volatility decrease of a US/Int'l portfolio in the Vanguard white paper is...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

If we all weighted all the expert opinions equally, we would never make a decision on how we would divide up our investments. :happy So, you were talking about justification by those that go 100% US? Those folks give plenty of reasons to justify their choices also. I haven't seen anyone offer absol...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

But you still seem to be missing the meta-argument. Probably true. I certainly miss a lot and there certainly seem to be a lot of meta-arguments around this subject. I probably would have been a lot better off to miss all of them. :) Just curious, but what is your definition of a "meta-argumen...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

There is justification. Reasons are given for those recommendations. Just as any other expert gives their reasons for market weight, 50/50, 70/30, or whatever. We all get to pick and choose what advice and recommendations we follow. If you don't like someone's recommendation, ignore it. You're fall...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 6
Views: 477

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

There's the usual differences to consider--emerging markets, growth vs. value, weightings of various sectors and countries, etc.--but this was a difficult one for me to avoid too. The best argument might be that even VINEX owns 249,010 shares* of Vanguard FTSE All World ex-US Small-Cap ETF! :D *As o...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Actually, I read three posts asking why not put 100% in Apple in the last two days. So, yes, people have in fact been giving that response. I just did a search. Not a single mention of Apple in that context. Edit: Okay, searched AAPL, and one person, watchnerd does seem to make that argument. But y...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Why is that poor? If he took at least one other person or experts recommendation into account, it would then be sound... I would guess VERY FEW people on BH have done all their own research to come up with their own conclusion of how much international to have. Probably 99% of us are following some...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree with Taylor's 20% recommendation, but why do you think it is ridiculous? Because it isn't closer to 50% (i.e. a global cap weighting)? Because Taylor weighs the recommendations of Bogle and Vanguard equally while taking nobody else's recommendation into account an...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

People listen to his [Bogle's] advice because he's a smart fellow that has tended to be right a lot of the time. He isn't Pope Jack or "Dear Leader Bogle". You've touched on part of the problem and why certain comments might appear to be "anti-guru". Some posters do seem to trea...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Whakamole wrote:Wasn't there advice on this forum at one point which boiled down to "Bogle recommends a max of 20% international, Vanguard recommends a minimum of 20% International, therefore you should go with 20%"?


Yes. And the "advice" is just as ridiculous now as it was then.
by saltycaper
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?
Replies: 15
Views: 1944

Re: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?

To clarify, you feel one way, your wife feels a different way, and rather than establish some facts you both can use to make a more informed and somewhat objective decision, you just want support for your feelings. :P Now that I got that poke out of the way, in addition to the concerns above, I'd re...
by saltycaper
Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Changes in your risk profile
Replies: 13
Views: 665

Re: Changes in your risk profile

That's not quite what happened. What happened is that my total portfolio size grew (or is soon to grow) larger than my goal to comfortably support my projected expenses in early retirement (hasn't yet happened but it's on the horizon) so my need to expose additional monies to the market has changed...
by saltycaper
Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Changes in your risk profile
Replies: 13
Views: 665

Re: Changes in your risk profile

We know your asset allocation should be based on your need, willingness, and ability to take risk. If your "need" to take risk has decreased because of the recent strong market performance, and you act on that need by reducing the amount of "new" money being put into the market,...
by saltycaper
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

baw703916 wrote:
JoMoney wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:Should you confuse strategy with outcome?

What is the objective of the strategy?


To achieve confirmation bias? 8-)


More generally, to fiercely defend Jack Bogle at any cost.
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 785

Re: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?

^All reasonable choices, but performance of these funds largely will be comparable to VTIAX.

I myself would stick to Vanguard Total International and its kin. Otherwise, you're looking for an active fund and taking on manager risk.
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

OK, you are correct. I do not see the flaws in Taylor's "argument". It seemed like a pretty clear statement of opinion to me that so far appears to be correct. Hyperbole - "exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally" Sorry, no hyperbole was intended. It see...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

It seems you are taking this, and probably more importantly, past posts by Taylor to find something to get upset about. His statement is true and correct. Mr. Bogle said a US investor did not need international investments. For the last 23 or so years, this has been right. International investments...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

For the record, the Taylor Larimore three fund portfolio includes an International Stock Index. Taylor as far as I know invests Internationally himself. My guess is that he sticks close to Mr. Bogle's 20% recommendation. Taylor shares his international allocation from time to time. He does not appe...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Numbers don't lie, and they trump speculation, theories, and philosophical discussions. Why is that so hard to accept? I detect an element of defensiveness among many who hold significant percentages of international holdings. Attacking Bogle or Taylor is blaming the messenger. Past performance IS ...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Right, and we should hold a market weight of active mutual funds because it "should not even be a question". . . :twisted: My little radar goes up anytime someone says we should not even question or that a question is "simply not appropriate". Says who? Who said he is judging in...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

If you don't believe he has a logical reason I suggest you go back and read Common Sense on Mutual Funds, or some of his other writings on the topic. He has had a lot to say. In particular, the 10 year updated version of Common Sense on Mutual Funds goes over some of his "easy call" justi...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 155
Views: 11045

Re: Books not to read.

flamesabers wrote:
saltycaper wrote:I can't believe it took 113 replies to get a mention of Atlas Shrugged.


It's a book I think everyone should read, if only to understand why the book provokes praise as well as ire from people.


Agreed. I was being a little sarcastic. 113 replies isn't that many. :D
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

I think Taylor was more likely poking the bear with a stick :-) He got the response he wanted! I didn't want to assume someone like Taylor would troll this board, but the more this sort of thing goes on, I think you may be right. The giveaway in this case should have been his linking to an article ...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Question: I read constanlty that past porformace does not guarantee future porformance. But then the only thing we talk about is past performance. Also, that the only thing the gurus talk about when setting up their portfolio recommendations. All the Lazy Portfolios are based on past. Is that not t...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

You took what Taylor posted way out of content. I did not take anything out of context. Taylor posted a quote from Bogle saying what an investor "should" do. He then posted return figures for a single time period. He then said Bogle was right. The conclusion is that the "right" ...
by saltycaper
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

The whole Boglehead approach of investing in broad market indices is justified by extrapolating from past returns. That's simply not true. Past returns are only one component, not the foundation of the "whole Boglehead approach." How you assess risk, how much risk to take, and how returns...
by saltycaper
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

This is obviously a contentious issue. It says absolutely nothing about the future or about someones "passing knowledge of investing". I'd wager Mr.Bogle has far more experience than anyone on this board. The statement stands exactly as it was written, and is 100% accurate. If you want to...
by saltycaper
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

100% accurate Mr. Bogle HAS BEEN right. Measuring the "correctness" of investment decisions bases solely on returns should be discouraged. Whatever one's opinion on the merits of international investing, the rationale used by Taylor in the original post to defend US-only investing should ...
by saltycaper
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 282
Views: 15107

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Mr. Bogle has been right. No. He hasn't. At least, not by the evidence offered in your post, which is not logic that should be promoted by a member of this forum that a good number of readers look to for advice. By your logic, the "right" investment is simply the one that offers the best ...
by saltycaper
Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 14287

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

jbolden1517 wrote:
I get that it won't go far around here discussing anything but the fund de jure.


I'm not sure if it's the fund de jure, but it is the fund de facto. It can't be the fund du jour because it never runs out.
by saltycaper
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 14287

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

jbolden1517 wrote:
In your example both A and B trade at intrinsic value the entire time. In which case, yes the return is equal.


Other tangential topics may deserve consideration, but the main point of this thread was conceded here.
by saltycaper
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 14287

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Bfwolf wrote:

Oh well, I tried! I'll leave it to others to keep fighting the good fight.



Thank you for your efforts. You've dispatched the "free money" concept with ease, and I can't believe this is still a point of debate.
by saltycaper
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 94
Views: 4935

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Question on international bonds. Are most of the objections because the vanguard international bond fund (BNDX) does not yield as much as total bond market? If the yield was higher on international bonds would less people object? I'm just curious. I went with a small portion to international bonds ...
by saltycaper
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1122

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

Yesterday the 3-month was higher than the 6-month: 1.15 and 1.12, respectively. Today, a little wider with a 6 bps difference, 1.16 and 1.10. Seem inconsequential but a little odd. This inversion is being attributed to concern that the 3-month payment could be delayed due to a debt ceiling impasse:...
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 155
Views: 11045

Re: Books not to read.

If I read a book I don't like and someone whose judgement I respect liked it, I'll ask why and then maybe go back and try again. The only books I remember doing that with were Ayn Rand's T he Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged . I still don't like them, but curiously, it was worth trying again. I can'...
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 7821

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Taken from the 2008 book, The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need ***, authored by Larry Swedroe and Jared Kizer ***I guess the title was a bit of an exaggeration, eh? I learned awhile back that non-fiction authors often don't get to chose the title for their own books! Usually i...
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1122

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

Yesterday the 3-month was higher than the 6-month: 1.15 and 1.12, respectively. Today, a little wider with a 6 bps difference, 1.16 and 1.10. Seem inconsequential but a little odd.
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 7821

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Taken from the 2008 book, The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need ***, authored by Larry Swedroe and Jared Kizer (co-author of the paper referenced in the article): The evidence from academic studies demonstrates that equity REITs, both domestic and international, offer an attract...
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 14287

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

In my particular situation I like to read different articles & think about how they relate to my life. And go hum mm... It's hard to put it lightly that the articles you are sharing are direct examples of the types of errors made by dividend-focused investors. Their primary message is antitheti...
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 3801

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

I am getting concerned that academia has let the cat out of the bag and now Wall Street is chasing factors aggressively. Smart beta and all of that. I am reminded of the Yogi Berra quote, "That restaurant is getting so crowded that nobody goes there anymore." You have to wonder if the fac...
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 3801

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV ???

This is what Mr. Bogle said according to the MarketWatch article: The way to really disappoint investors is to put them in diversified portfolios that don't behave like the broad market . http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-jack-bogles-strategy-to-avoid-disappointing-vanguard-investors-2017-07...
by saltycaper
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 3801

Re: A Good Investor is Skeptical

Which is the more important factor - small or value? The S&P 600 small cap index, a small cap blend index, has outperformed the S&P 500 index. Bogleheads: This post gives no dates. Every fund out-performs and under-performs another fund during certain periods. "Using past performance n...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 3801

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

I can't listen to the whole interview right now. What time is SCV discussed?
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7665

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

You don't need it, Bogle himself repeatedly recommends we don't do it, and you should not be convinced by arguments that require you to believe past performance is a key indicator of future results. Bogle recommends that IF you buy international it should not be more that 20% of your overall equity...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7665

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Anyway, thanks for all the replies. It would be great to get at least a loose consensus, but I can see that's not going to happen (at least probably not in my lifetime). I think the best we've got is a stand-off, and 20% would probably be the compromise. This seemed to be the case in Taylor Larimor...
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new Bogle written interview on marketwatch.com today 7/20/17
Replies: 17
Views: 1680

Re: new Bogle written interview on marketwatch.com today 7/20/17

Rather than try to align my behavior with my misinformed thinking, I'd prefer to attempt to better inform my thinking.

I would not be shocked to hear Jack Bogle state otherwise, but I'll believe it only when I see the exact words he spoke.
by saltycaper
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 7665

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Why do so many people think we need it, and what is the reason, other than just speculation? The onus is not on those who believe in holding a market-cap weighted portfolio of stocks to prove you need international, but rather on those who believe you should deviate from market weight. The demand s...

Go to advanced search