Search found 2116 matches

by saltycaper
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 12469

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

By "dangerous" I mean permanent loss of value. Maybe that isn't the right word. Maybe I just mean "underperforming" or "money-losing". Which, to me, is dangerous, because almost every investor requires adequate return on their assets. Just about every investment is dangerous by this criteria. My qu...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 12469

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

siamond wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:18 pm

PS. as to TIPS, this is another discussion, I have a lot of concerns about them, I decided to not own any, but maybe we shouldn't derail this thread. I was only referring to regular treasury bonds in my previous posts.
I'm interested in hearing your concerns. I'm sure others are too.
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dice
Replies: 39
Views: 2617

Re: 8 Lazy Portfolios

poppa23: In my opinion, "managing 7 funds for an extra .5 in return" is more likely to result in .5% less return. You can see it here: Total Returns for 8 Lazy Portfolios* *The leading Second Grader Starter Lazy Portfolio is The Three-Fund Portfolio. Best wishes. Taylor All, As has been pointed out...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dice
Replies: 39
Views: 2617

Re: Slice and Dice

I ask because at some point its just not worth managing 7 funds for an extra .5 in return for the year.Your thoughts please. Well, an extra 0.5% annually over 30 years could mean you end up with a portfolio that is 10-15% bigger than you would have if you didn't get that extra 0.5% I think that's s...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 91
Views: 5497

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

The specific definable quantitative criteria are just what avoids black box nature. Picture a box where you know every quantitative measurement you can imagine, but you can't see inside. The data could be illuminating, if only you knew what was in there. So close--like holding the most powerful fla...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 91
Views: 5497

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

CULater » Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:52 pm Factor investing seems to come a lot closer to "black box" investing. Is this a popular view of factor investing on this board? One way factor investing might be seen as black box investing is if the factor-investing proponent approaches the evidence strictly fro...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Add international value?
Replies: 10
Views: 1101

Re: Add international value?

I think splitting up your int'l allocation any further will result in slices so small that the likely performance differences will have little impact compared to what you have now.
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 768

Re: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio

During the past 15 years the difference in return is less that one-quarter of one percent. Indeed. One might omit Total Bond entirely and just use TIPS. The credit risk in Total Bond is already adequately represented by equities, and the nominal Treasury bonds are exposed to unexpected inflation, w...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 768

Re: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio

I'm as bad at timing interest rate movements as the next investor. That said, here are some random thoughts. It is easy in hindsight to see 2012 and 2013 were pretty bad times to build a TIPS ladder if we look at the 10-year TIPS. The St. Louis Fed data show the 10-year oscillating around 2% before ...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 768

Re: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio

You probably have Taylor Larimore 's three-fund portfolio in mind when you note the absence of TIPS. While it is frequently referred to as the three-fund portfolio, there actually are a variety of three-fund portfolios out there. Some of them include TIPS. For instance, there is a portfolio of 1/3 e...
by saltycaper
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best albums of 2017
Replies: 8
Views: 972

Re: Best albums of 2017

Roger Waters - Is This The Life We Really Want?

David Gilmour - Live At Pompeii
by saltycaper
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yet another TIPS thread
Replies: 3
Views: 570

Re: Yet another TIPS thread

The use of auction dates as markers seems arbitrary. The 10-year TIPS frequently has poked its head through the 0.5% level over the past couple of years. As for buying decisions, there are no hard and fast rules. Some people refer to the chart in the back of Larry Swedroe's bond book. It's likely da...
by saltycaper
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4749

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

Started trading stocks just before the summit of the 90s bull market, having gotten caught up in the interplay between the spread of online stock trading for the masses and the excitement over the Internet itself. Made a lot of money. Lost a lot of money. Had a lot of fun. I happened to pick up a co...
by saltycaper
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pennsylvania Vehicle Registration Renewal - 2 year option
Replies: 24
Views: 2289

Re: Pennsylvania Vehicle Registration Renewal - 2 year option

So perhaps we go by MassD2OT. The acceleration of Mass, as in the change of DOT with respect to time. (non engineers are now rolling their eyes) Non-engineer here. Not rolling eyes, just squinting. Why is there an 'O' in the differential? Is this an engineering thing, an advanced topic, or just a l...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Michelin or Bridgestone?
Replies: 67
Views: 3628

Re: Michelin or Bridgestone?

I've bought a couple sets of Michelin tires at Costco. Seemed fine. Not sure how long they lasted, as I got rid of the cars while the mileage was still pretty low. Not long ago, I was going to get another set, the Defender. I'm looking up reviews for the tire, and I came across some claims that the ...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market
Replies: 16
Views: 1644

Re: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market

At Fidelity, it's just $1 per $1,000 no matter your balance, though I imagine yields differ by broker, possibly in part due to fees you may not see.
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7336

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Lots of anchoring going on in this thread. Careful out there. GE's stock price in 2008, 2016, or whenever is totally irrelevant when considering whether you should buy the stock today.
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market
Replies: 16
Views: 1644

Re: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market

Is it possible they are so illiquid that their illiquidity cannot be accurately priced by the retail investors who buy them at auction? If $X million is available at auction, but when sold, a much smaller amount, say, 5K-50K is available at any one time, does this help explain the difference? In oth...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1897

Re: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund

If this fund was launched last month, I would guess it will be until the end of the quarter before info is posted. That seems to be when those pages get updated.
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1897

Re: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund

My question asking if this is normal is not about how the market goes up and down :!: - but about the display of activity without the back-up info causing that activity. Well, even info on the Vanguard website for well-established funds doesn't indicate what caused the performance. If you just mean...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig died...what now?
Replies: 73
Views: 5206

Re: Keurig died...what now?

Bit the dust "recently," eh?

You know there are other options, eh?

Wondering if you should switch brands, eh?

Your username is "Howie," eh?

"What now?" indeed.

I would look for something more automated, compact, and easier to use. I'd prefer if it just drank the coffee for me.
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18370

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:38 pm

Ahh, yes, here's to Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps. :sharebeer
One of the "every funds" Merriman mentions is Vanguard Small Cap Value, but 40% of the fund is mid-cap. If someone forced me to hold just one domestic stock fund, it would be Vanguard Small Cap Value.
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13033

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

I will give you all a great and very simple example of why people get confused about investing. As I mentioned earlier I own some Wellesley. According to Swedroe,I am committing 3 mortal sins.Dividend stocks,corporate bonds and managed fund. According to Bogle,I am just fine. That’s all. Larry take...
by saltycaper
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18370

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Perhaps those who think small caps are a slam dunk should take a look at this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=3609736#p3609736 YMMV. Good thread to link to; however, it should be noted the "one fund" and primary discussion in this thread is small-cap value, not small-cap.
by saltycaper
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1247

Re: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied

David Blanchett, who co-wrote the article, is head of Morningstar Investment Management LLC which is launching new funds for the exclusive use of Financial Advisors to sell their clients. What better "sales pitch" than "Liability Driven Investing" (also called "Cash Matching" and "Dedicated Portfol...
by saltycaper
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International
Replies: 40
Views: 5117

Re: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International

The issue is not intellectual (which would default to 45/55 US/Foreign) but psychological: tracking error tolerance. My clients read the Wall Street Journal. When International stocks outperform domestic, they say, "Great job, Phil, really love those international stocks." When international stocks...
by saltycaper
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New CEO Tim Buckley: To run Vanguard, 'you have to be willing not to be a billionaire'
Replies: 24
Views: 4114

Re: New CEO Tim Buckley: To run Vanguard, 'you have to be willing not to be a billionaire'

Note that while it's acceptable to split an infinitive with an adverb, "not" is not an adverb. Also, The Chicago Manual of Style defaults to not splitting infinitives and allows to split them only when it's needed for emphasis or clarity. I share your love for the CMS, but "not" is an adverb. I app...
by saltycaper
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1247

Re: "Smart investing is non-mathematical and accessible to everyone"

Bogleheads: Consider the words of Michael Edesess, author of The Big Investment Lie: "As a mathematician I know when mathematical-sounding analyses are little more than elaborate sales pitches, designed to thoroughly obscure the simple fact that smart investing is non-mathematical and accessible to...
by saltycaper
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5099

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

The use of small-value for higher expected return and risk than 100% equities idea is something I've heard a bit about. I have a relatively high-equity portfolio and a relatively high risk tolerance. The concept of having a portfolio of 85 - 90% equities, with equities tilted to S-V and EM, and bon...
by saltycaper
Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New CEO Tim Buckley: To run Vanguard, 'you have to be willing not to be a billionaire'
Replies: 24
Views: 4114

Re: New CEO Tim Buckley: To run Vanguard, 'you have to be willing not to be a billionaire'

greg24 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:20 pm
I'd be willing to not be a billionaire.
I'm sorry, but you must not split the infinitive in order not to be a billionaire.
by saltycaper
Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13033

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Can we have some balance here? ... So it doesn't have to be High Yield or No Yield, there is a middle course! At first I was going to say, "Oh, no! Not another instance where people disagree, so it is therefore assumed that the truth must lie in the middle." But, then I saw you set the two sides as...
by saltycaper
Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13033

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Last point,if Joe had invested 100,000 in a tax deferred account in the dividend 100 Swedroe listed and Bob invested 100,000 in the total market,Joe would have a lot more money than Bob.Do you think Joe cares that according to many academics,it was not because of the dividends?This is never ending ...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13033

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

In the end,this argument is pointless.People who like like dividend stocks will continue to do do and the technocrats will continue to feel satisfied that they are correct in their facts.It is very much like the national political debate which is banned on this forum.Both sides are satisfied with t...
by saltycaper
Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3316

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

Time will tell. So far it 's been ttelling us that Bogle is right. I don't feel great about going against Vanguard's advice; it's hard to imagine they could be so wrong. If you use performance figures to determine which investment was "right" and which investment was "wrong", you always will be wro...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3316

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

I don't think I'll ever recover what I lost by going 30% international. I shouldn't have listened to people who think they're smarter than John Bogle. If you mean you don't think your returns on your international stocks ever will be greater than 0%, that's unlikely. Unless you sold them at a loss,...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7730

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

I think having two or three funds instead of five or seven or however many is unlikely to be helpful in the event of severe cognitive decline. If you can manage three funds, you can manage five. If you can't manage five, you probably can't manage three. Maybe one fund would be okay, but more likely,...
by saltycaper
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Climate controlled cars - Useful or Useless?
Replies: 49
Views: 2111

Re: Climate controlled cars - Useful or Useless?

Also when I set it to defog the front windshield, it does it with the AC which freezes me. I used to be able to defog with warm air I think... If you're just hitting defrost, instead, try manually changing the blower mode to defrost and manually turning up the temperature. Works on my climate contr...
by saltycaper
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Choose Vanguard"
Replies: 4
Views: 811

Re: "Why You Should Choose Vanguard"

Without Jack Bogle, there would be no index funds.
I stopped reading after this silly assertion.
by saltycaper
Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is putting money in a 401k a bad idea?
Replies: 25
Views: 2425

Re: Is putting money in a 401k a bad idea?

Every dollar contributed to a 401(k) is a dollar taxed at your top marginal rate. The same dollars coming out will first fill up the 0%, 10%, and 15% tax brackets, even if your last dollar is ultimately taxed at 25% or 28%. I see this posted often, and I do not think it's always correctly interpret...
by saltycaper
Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?
Replies: 116
Views: 5282

Re: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?

F150HD wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:27 pm

The password for my Vanguard account is the last 8 digits of PI.
Stop being irrational.

Also, e > pi.
by saltycaper
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parked Car Hit and Need Advice
Replies: 16
Views: 2114

Re: Parked Car Hit and Need Advice

If it's on the bumper, rust shouldn't be a concern, eh? So, why bother fixing?
by saltycaper
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning Buffet Indicator?!?
Replies: 31
Views: 2515

Re: Warning Buffet Indicator?!?

From time to time, I read county health inspection reports for nearby restaurants, which has resulted in my avoiding certain establishments; however, I can't think of any serious violations that were unique to buffets. I'm not sure how helpful this knowledge has been though, for whatever benefit I m...
by saltycaper
Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-fund vs. 3-fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2528

Re: 2-fund vs. 3-fund

The purpose of my original post above was simply to ask the question going back past 1993, and the question still stands: Has international US-only investing in the past 20, 30, 40 years worked out better than US only international? (edited your post to agree with mine) If by "worked out better", y...
by saltycaper
Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?
Replies: 116
Views: 5282

Re: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?

Like Charlie Brown, I have been accused by the fussbudgets around here of being wishy-washy. Accused? How about "identified"? Or, "wrongly labeled"? Nevermind. You probably aren't sure. :P My avatar is The Tower, a tarot card. It may be interpreted as chaos, failed materialism, hubris, and many oth...
by saltycaper
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-fund vs. 3-fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2528

Re: 2-fund vs. 3-fund

Ron Scott wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:44 am

Over the past 10, 20, 30(?), 40(?) year periods, who made more money; Saver A or Saver B?
I would guess Saver A. But, what's so special about today?
by saltycaper
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 30
Views: 3870

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

Emerson famously wrote that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds. Even if Bogle is being inconsistent,is he being foolish? And if he isn't being foolish, is that really an inconsistency? I do not think Emerson's oft-quoted phrase has anything to do with this sort of inconsistency. ...
by saltycaper
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 30
Views: 3870

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

So what if someone, a long time ago, said two plus two equals five? Does that mean that they still believe in that, or that they truly can't add? Or were they trying to make a different point entirely? It's all too easy to take things out of context. In this case, things are not being taken out of ...
by saltycaper
Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy long term bonds Now?
Replies: 33
Views: 3031

Re: Why would anyone buy long term bonds?

If nobody did, somebody would.