Search found 644 matches

by ryman554
Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can we retire early?
Replies: 11
Views: 2059

Re: Can we retire early?

You are not supporting a $110k/year retirement on a $2.7M portfolio. I'm not going through your entire taxable situation, but it's not a stretch for you to need 15-20k of money to cover taxes, given you likely live in a HCOL area. Now you are talking about a $125k/year need, which puts you between 3...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Loan vs Mortgage
Replies: 29
Views: 1970

Re: Auto Loan vs Mortgage

I'm a mix of person A and B I guess, in your above example, since I currently have enough asset to pay off car (it's 2017 by the way), but as already stated it's <1%. I'm also person B because I have a conventional mortgage with a flat fee PMI (mortgage is less than 3 years old), that has cost me a...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Loan vs Mortgage
Replies: 29
Views: 1970

Re: Auto Loan vs Mortgage

And there are ways to force the mental game of isolating the money so you don't think to spend it without resorting to making the financially suboptimal choice to pay down cheap debt (it matters not at all that the debt is secured by a depreciating asset, if anything that makes it a better deal bec...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3562

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

I was assuming some SS income and therefore an appx 4% withdrawal rate in either case. But: For a 70 YO with $10m in assets, a 4% SWR would be 400k per year. This hypothetical person is not going to run out of money, period. I don't care how it's invested. Even assuming they were taking only from t...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments
Replies: 14
Views: 1904

Re: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments

There is no correlation with folks suggesting here such as tech index or reit. It is better in my opinion to have a small condo rather than paying huge rents. Consider slight commute from areas like San Carlos to Palo Alto. Any way all the best. Just remember like bogleheads there is a way to live ...
by ryman554
Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Loan vs Mortgage
Replies: 29
Views: 1970

Re: Auto Loan vs Mortgage

No way would I pay off a less than 1% loan with a 4.5% hanging over my head There is one reason: cash flow. Not having to pay the 1% loan means more $$ is available monthly in case of emergency. No, it absolutely does not mean more $$ available in case of emergency - you had $29k available in case ...
by ryman554
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments
Replies: 14
Views: 1904

Re: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments

shashi wrote:Why not buy a condo in less expensive area like Dublin, CA and commute or rent it out and use that for your rent?


That is the last thing I would recommend anybody do unless the idea of a 1.5+ hour commute, each way, is acceptable.
by ryman554
Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Loan vs Mortgage
Replies: 29
Views: 1970

Re: Auto Loan vs Mortgage

No way would I pay off a less than 1% loan with a 4.5% hanging over my head There is one reason: cash flow. Not having to pay the 1% loan means more $$ is available monthly in case of emergency. Paying down a mortgage to remove PMI affects cash flow too, so go to that, but afterwards, there is zero...
by ryman554
Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Car Should I Buy My Daughter as a Graduation Present
Replies: 139
Views: 6667

Re: Any BHs Had Experience With the Honda Fit?

Have a 2010 fit. Woefully underpowered and/or misgeared to the point that I would not suggest using the car as a commuter car if you have to go on the motorway. It feels like you press on the gas pedal, the car thinks about it a little bit, and then you (slowly) accelerate. My wife loves it, since s...
by ryman554
Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity web snafu
Replies: 3
Views: 435

Re: Fidelity web snafu

Untrue. Just did it right now. I use KeePass/KeeFox with no problems. It's also what keeps me from using passwords on mobile. Pain. Worst case (like I have to do with various sites which don't have the ability to test things pasted in) 1. Paste your stuff, then hit space and then backspace. Pasted c...
by ryman554
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3562

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

A very helpful discussion here, thanks all.... I wonder if high equity allocations would get such wide endorsements in late 2008? ...ok, just spent some time back in late 2008 BH-Land, and while I didn't see much in the way of studies analyzing different AA's in the context of retirement, a great d...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 2504

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

What are other BH's using for their calculations? This chart has the most recent expected real returns from Dimson, Marsh and Staunton, as updated from their 2017 Global Investment Returns Yearbook: https://s14.postimg.org/gv9mp9kkx/Untitled.jpg Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton It suggests betwee...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3562

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

Age in bonds is a horrible rule of thumb. One needs to plan for retirement to last 30 years. As far as risks vs. rates of returns go, this is close enough to infinity to consider looking at what the asset allocations are for endowments or the like. You will find these extremely equity heavy (or, rat...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts
Replies: 24
Views: 2770

Re: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts

I want to keep all investments per account over 10k to qualify for the lower expense ratios. Not to hijack but are you saying if you buy 10k in an admiral fund and the valuation drops below 10k you get charged investor share costs? No. I'm on Fido, but I suspect VG is the same: If the valuation dro...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dealership rejecting rebate after contract signed
Replies: 115
Views: 13571

Re: Dealership rejecting rebate after contract signed

Wow, quite a story. Glad to hear the dealership owned their mistake. The rep who was threatening you should be fired. It was their mistake, not yours. I have no doubt that the rep was on the call (and told to shut up) *just* for that reason. The GM did the right thing. I will bet there was an hour ...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 2504

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

What dbr said to do it right. The alternative is to just be conservative and stick your projections on the low side of history. I'm lazy, so I don't. One should also consider "real" vs. "nominal" -- I find "real" rates of return much more useful to project retirement, w...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Small tax refund or owing taxes?
Replies: 35
Views: 2041

Re: Small tax refund or owing taxes?

Personally, I prefer to owe state taxes, because I'm subject to the AMT. And I don't like having to calculate whether or not my state refund is taxable. Yeah, that's annoying, but a quick calculation: a state refund of less than your ~3x the AMT amount should mean your refund is not taxable. So unl...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Small tax refund or owing taxes?
Replies: 35
Views: 2041

Re: Small tax refund or owing taxes?

Personally, I prefer to owe state taxes, because I'm subject to the AMT. And I don't like having to calculate whether or not my state refund is taxable. Yeah, that's annoying, but a quick calculation: a state refund of less than your ~3x the AMT amount should mean your refund is not taxable. So unl...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financially independent and then market crashes?
Replies: 54
Views: 5815

Re: Financially independent and then market crashes?

The 25x amount is all a out how you spend. If you make $100,000 but live on $40,000 , you probably don't need 25X savings. But you do need to make sure you have a large enough emergency fund for the unexpected surprises in life. I think you might misunderstand 25x. It's not 25x of income (or $2.5M)...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financially independent and then market crashes?
Replies: 54
Views: 5815

Re: Financially independent and then market crashes?

I tend to believe that the market goes down a lot easier than it goes up, and so I think that this calculation provides a relative measure of safety for any retiree. Plus, isn't it "better" to have more money and not need it than to have just barely enough money and need more of it? I'm t...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financially independent and then market crashes?
Replies: 54
Views: 5815

Re: Financially independent and then market crashes?

SWR of 4% (25x) is based on 30 year drawdown. People FI in their 30's and 40's need a lower SWR / more like 33x. What data do you have to base this statement on? The 4% SWR comes from Trinity study for an 80/20 (ish, depending on how you judge "failure") allocation, year 2000 looks like m...
by ryman554
Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheriting Quandary
Replies: 46
Views: 6572

Re: Inheritance Decision

2M is residential home. Somebody gets it and nothing else. (likely the sister who is already living there) 3M is commercial property. Hopefully two of your sibs want this + 1M of "cash" That leaves 6M of "cash" for three of you. Propose this and see if it's equitable. If nobody (...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to Do with Yearly Employer Bonus?
Replies: 10
Views: 931

Re: What to Do with Yearly Employer Bonus?

In answer to your other questions, yes, we have an emergency fund, yes, we do contribute to both Roths (not married, but I contribute to my own and he maxes his himself), and as another poster said, I do think it's best to try to have Vanguard funds, so I may see if it's possible to hold those with...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 252
Views: 16879

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan

You are pushing it (greatly) with 60k of expenses and 1M portfolio with that bridge to SS and the relatively conservative 60/40 portfolio. I'd advocate for closer to 1.4M, but you also have SS coming up relatively soon: once you get to 62 with your 1M intact you should be more than OK. At 62 with 52...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to Do with Yearly Employer Bonus?
Replies: 10
Views: 931

Re: What to Do with Yearly Employer Bonus?

Use the bonus for extra savings. Don't rely on the bonus for needed expenses or as a future source of income. Treat it as a "surprise" every year and you will be well on your way. As for what to do with it... do you have any debt? If so, pay it down. Do you have 3-6 month emergency fund? I...
by ryman554
Wed May 31, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?
Replies: 86
Views: 5959

Re: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?

The good thing about "someday money" is that, when you have enough of the money to actually use it, you are almost always selling high. The corollary to this is, when the "someday money" becomes "tomorrow money", don't forget to move it somewhere safe as you are finaliz...
by ryman554
Fri May 26, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations
Replies: 13
Views: 1638

Re: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations

What happened is that stupid "Stocks in Freefall" thread popped up again and the market rallied to new all-time highs. If people had held off getting that thread going again, you would have had a longer and better buying opportunity. It is actually not a bad contrary indicator. Also notic...
by ryman554
Thu May 25, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversions Post Retirement
Replies: 19
Views: 1900

Re: Roth Conversions Post Retirement

OP:

can you defer your annuities?

Otherwise, while it won't make much difference for you to convert now vs. later, convert everything you can now. Your heirs will appreciate it.
by ryman554
Wed May 24, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use Voided Check or Deposit Slip?
Replies: 15
Views: 1061

Re: Use Voided Check or Deposit Slip?

And, in addition to writing VOID, rip off the signature line on the voided check You mean the part of the check just above some of the numbers the bank wants? Get a sharpie and write VOID, or better yet, scan / print out a copy of an already voided check (my bank allows this) and you can avoid inad...
by ryman554
Wed May 24, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth is overrated
Replies: 76
Views: 9367

Re: Net worth is overrated

I don't understand the statement that it is income that matters, not net worth. Your net worth is a large factor in how much income you can generate. Not all assets generate income - for example you home - but they can be converted to assets that can generate an income, and many other assets DO gen...
by ryman554
Fri May 19, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delay SS, but claim if market plunges
Replies: 49
Views: 4257

Re: Delay SS, but claim if market plunges

I feel like this strategy is attractive, but also that it is market timing. If a plunge happens, now what? Will it recover right away? Then the delay plan should be preserved for the longevity insurance benefit. So I let it go farther, now the benefit is eliminated as a delay of another X months ea...
by ryman554
Thu May 18, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Forced Retirement
Replies: 28
Views: 2878

Re: Forced Retirement

I'm actually trying to figure out where the income stream of $110,000 comes from. Is this before or after taxes? that seems like a lot, or at least a "desired" stream, not "necessary" stream. I'd like that in retirement, too, but you really need something north of $1.5M to suppor...
by ryman554
Wed May 17, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 143
Views: 34746

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

As you stated net worth is loosely defined, My interpretation of net worth is investible assets of the individual. For example the U.S Government Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) has 3000 participants out of 6,000,000 with a million dollars in assets, which is a fraction of one percent. According to the l...
by ryman554
Wed May 17, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 143
Views: 34746

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

For folks who have a net worth of >$2M, you are in the top 5% of Americans! Not quite. Unless you had that net worth 4 years ago. Markets have been substantially higher over these four years, so I expect the 5% NW requirement to also be substantially higher when the new SCF numbers come out. Anybod...
by ryman554
Tue May 16, 2017 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 143
Views: 34746

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

For folks who have a net worth of >$2M, you are in the top 5% of Americans! Not quite. Unless you had that net worth 4 years ago. Markets have been substantially higher over these four years, so I expect the 5% NW requirement to also be substantially higher when the new SCF numbers come out. Anybod...
by ryman554
Sat May 13, 2017 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3488

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

I'm currently reading a book called Retirement Portfolios by Michael Zwecher. The author quotes a friend of his when he writes "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer". I think that's a succinct and clever statement of an important concept. Stocks are risky no matter th...
by ryman554
Sat May 13, 2017 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 5495

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

Lucky for us, they confirmed the factors that people at bogleheads.org use as being quite robust. Are you looking at the same small-cap plot I am looking at? As far as I know, the *only* factor that bogleheads like to promote with general agreement is "time money is in market", but it's a...
by ryman554
Wed May 03, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy more AMD [should I?]
Replies: 9
Views: 1195

Re: Buy more AMD

Is buying more INTC a good idea right now? How about TSLA? Or F? Folks on this board typically do not dabble in single company projections. Too many unknowns, and the specific case of AMD is exactly why we don't do this... has it run up too much based on promises of a product it cant' deliver or won...
by ryman554
Mon May 01, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mega Backdoor Roth IRA - In service Withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 2164

Re: Mega Backdoor Roth IRA - In service Withdrawal

I'm also worried about the withholding on the gains in the after-tax amount. When doing a roth conversion from a tIRA, I was under the impression that such withholding induced a 10% penalty if not replaced with after-tax money, since the withholding is effectively an early distribution, and shows as...
by ryman554
Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pregnant - HSA vs PPO decision
Replies: 11
Views: 1071

Re: Pregnant - HSA vs PPO decision

For a pregnancy, I assume I will hit the max out-of-pocket costs. Add in the (tax-deferred?) premiums for the year. Subtract any employer free money (HSA OR HRA contributions). In my case, the HRA contribution was more than the HSA contribution, which tilted me toward the PPO for the year. While it ...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does it make sense to start paying down (or off) a low rate mortgage?
Replies: 53
Views: 5533

Re: When does it make sense to start paying down (or off) a low rate mortgage?

If you pay down a fixed rate mortgage, you could have it recast to reduce your payments. Or refinance. But even if you don't change the payments, you are reducing your expenses (the interest) even if you're not changing the cash flow . You won't recast when contributing an extra $100 or so a month ...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Child's Debt Consolidation
Replies: 14
Views: 2057

Re: Child's Debt Consolidation

Agreed, +1 to the reply above.

Get her to listen to the Dave Ramsey show and/or gift her his book/course or something.

It's got to come from her, otherwise the behaviour will repeat. It's not easy watching a child go down a dangerous path...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts
Replies: 24
Views: 2770

Re: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts

You're making it too complicated. 1. List your investments, including CASH. 2. List a desired AA among the investments, likley with cash at 0%. 3. Sum your investment totals across all investments and all accounts. Create subtotals for each investment and each account. 4. Divide each investment subt...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18696

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I agree generally with the sentiment you are sharing. That being said, the odds are so overwhelmingly in your favor that I see no point in locking up money for twenty years at 3.5%. By that logic, however, why did my bank, who presumably has access to many more investment opportunities than the aver...
by ryman554
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To put 5k into my car loan or just keep it...
Replies: 41
Views: 2527

Re: To put 5k into my car loan or just keep it...

My car bank account is an emergency fund for my car... as in if sh*t hits the fan, I can use that account. I've had friends who lack that account and get financially screwed with a car due a car part (s) being needed. As for emptying my emergency fund -- sorry, I'll have to pass on that. I have a p...
by ryman554
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To put 5k into my car loan or just keep it...
Replies: 41
Views: 2527

Re: To put 5k into my car loan or just keep it...

I have to ask the question: What is the "car bank account?" It *can't* be money your saving up to buy a new car since you already have your dream car. I sincerely hope it's not the car maintenance fund.. =) Assuming it's sitting in a savings account... use it and almost all (sans $1000) of...
by ryman554
Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?
Replies: 24
Views: 2538

Re: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?

Ketawa wrote:Those weights feed into my target asset allocation percentages.

Image


75/25 Developed/Emerging is my target also.

I do this with 85% FSGDX abd 15% FPMAX. Gets me close enough.

I'm 50/50 US/Intl.
by ryman554
Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Principle Recast Scenario Question
Replies: 3
Views: 368

Re: Principle Recast Scenario Question

I looked into something like this earlier this week. Your choices are: 1. Continue on current amortization schedule; invest/save extra cash flow 2. Use existing saved cash flow to pay-down, do not re-amortize. Continue to invest/save extra cash flow 3. Use existing saved cash flow to pay-down, re-am...
by ryman554
Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestone reached.
Replies: 14
Views: 2429

Re: Milestone reached.

Congratulations. I wish I could fully share in your glory as well -- I ran the numbers a couple of days ago and found that, while the current NW is approaching 2M instead of 1M, I could only just achieve this milestone today IF I moved away to a less HCOL area (but a place I'd love to retire to AND ...
by ryman554
Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 178
Views: 23407

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

4.5% nominal and 4.5% inflation, so 0% real. Sorry for my ignorance. But when calculating real returns shoudnt we discount tax? So: 4.5% nominal - 3% inflation - ...% tax = real. ? Depends ... if you calculate tax drag as an expense on your investments (and paid for by them) or as a "deduction...

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