Search found 144 matches

by robertmcd
Thu May 24, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Affordable luxury ladies watch?
Replies: 21
Views: 1016

Re: Affordable luxury ladies watch?

Avoid fashion brands like Michael Kors, and buy a watch from a company who makes watches as their business. Some great options from swiss brands and japanese brands at that price point. I would look at:

Seiko
Citizen
Hamilton
Tissot
Eterna
Mido

You may be able to even get her a nice automatic.
by robertmcd
Wed May 16, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4312

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

Look at what happened in Dec 2016, 30 yr treasury yield went up to 3.17% only to get down to 2.67% by September of 2017, all while the Fed was raising rates. Everyone around that time of Dec 2016 went long US dollar and shorted treasuries, and it turned out to be a horrible trade. Don't think that 3...
by robertmcd
Tue May 15, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

At your age if I had won the game I would be sitting in mostly cash and physical gold too though. At my age of 24, I am trying to avoid being left behind even more in this asset price inflation insanity. I would rather bet with the "house" aka the Fed, and if I get slaughtered by rising long term in...
by robertmcd
Tue May 15, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 1:21 pm
Things will get much more exciting around here when DOW plunges to 16,000 in the next 12-18 months.

We should all decide now how we'll react.
Have you bought long term treasuries yet?
by robertmcd
Wed May 09, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Municipal Money Market SEC yield
Replies: 1
Views: 313

Vanguard Municipal Money Market SEC yield

The current SEC yield of vanguard muni money market (VMSXX) shows 1.43%. In my 24% bracket this equals 1.88% pre tax so it is higher than prime money market's (VMMXX) 1.84% yield. But looking back at the distributions, it was only this recent 5/1/2018 distribution that shows a 1.48% distribution yie...
by robertmcd
Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think people are missing the fact that the FED can't distort something it's a part of. :twisted: (more so than ever) Except that the Fed did some unprecedented things, for example, the purchase of Mortgage Instruments to help bring down mortgage rates. Historically, the Fed limited its purchases ...
by robertmcd
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unable to e file extension and direct pay today
Replies: 5
Views: 335

Re: Unable to e file extension and direct pay today

Okay I entered the payment date as 4/17/18 and it allowed it to be submitted. I got an email notification saying that the irs accepted it. Hopefully that means I am good.
by robertmcd
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unable to e file extension and direct pay today
Replies: 5
Views: 335

Re: Unable to e file extension and direct pay today

Taxact. It is saying that I can’t enter a date later than April 17th when it checks for errors before submitting my extension. I guess I could try to enter the 17th and see if it takes it but I doubt it.
by robertmcd
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unable to e file extension and direct pay today
Replies: 5
Views: 335

Unable to e file extension and direct pay today

I was unable to e file my extension and direct pay yesterday so I figured I would be able to today with the date extension. Now when I try, it gets rejected because the irs free file options don’t allow the day to be past April 17th. Is anyone else in this same situation/should I scramble to get it ...
by robertmcd
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Except if that happens, global asset prices will get obliterated. I would love for the distortions that the Fed has created to naturally correct themselves as they would in a free market, but we don't have a free market and that cannot happen at this point. It would have been easy to dig out from t...
by robertmcd
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

They have since its creation, but the recent foray into ZIRP after 2000, and massive QE after 2008 show that the insanity is accelerating. Look at the BOJ for the future direction we are headed. They own 75% of Japanese ETF's and they have become the only buyer of japanese government debt. Read up o...
by robertmcd
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Except if that happens, global asset prices will get obliterated. I would love for the distortions that the Fed has created to naturally correct themselves as they would in a free market, but we don't have a free market and that cannot happen at this point. It would have been easy to dig out from th...
by robertmcd
Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The yield curve continuing to flatten these past 2 days even as stocks going up.
by robertmcd
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long for irs to pull from checking
Replies: 13
Views: 1683

Re: How long for irs to pull from checking

Wait I can pay from a savings account right? My CD's are at CIT bank so I think I can just cash one out to savings today and be okay.
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long for irs to pull from checking
Replies: 13
Views: 1683

How long for irs to pull from checking

If I need to pay 40k for my estimated taxes while filing an extension to wait on a K1 for my partnership income, will that money need to be in my checking account tomorrow if I file electronically? I have most of my money in no penalty CDs and need a few days to get it to my checking.
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best credit card for earning free airfare?
Replies: 12
Views: 1514

Re: Best credit card for earning free airfare?

Take a look at the Uber card. 4% on dining and 3% on travel w/ no annual fee. I would have to spend 30k a year on dining to make up the $150 annual fee on the CSR (earning 4.5% effective).
by robertmcd
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16118

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I am interested to see how the alternative lending fund performs in the next recession. Will be great to see how their "prime" loans perform/what amount will default. They can only make estimates of how it performed in 08 (they say -5 to -8%). Really strong yield for the duration and credit risk if ...
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15204

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I agree that gold will be worthless if we ever have an apocalyptic level event (plague, famine, nuclear war). But in my opinion so long as there exists any assets that could be described as materialistic (anything other than food, water, clothing, bullets) such as art, nice clothes, nice homes, and ...
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

if this jagged staccato decline keeps continuing thru 2018 are they still going to be bumping up interest rates 2-3 more times? When I look at Federal Reserve's objectives in conducting monetary policy I don't see anything about the "stock market" in there. https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money...
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

What the heck happened to my 25% APY money market account that I had in 2017!!??
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EDV vs. TLT
Replies: 3
Views: 362

Re: EDV vs. TLT

Man Triceratop you are putting me on the spot again haha. You are correct about the inflation expectation. But the curve steepened when the AHE print hit. Now it is flattening. What we saw from real yields was very interesting as far as the inflation forecast not changing. It was really just people ...
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EDV vs. TLT
Replies: 3
Views: 362

EDV vs. TLT

It looks like long term treasuries are rallying with today's drop. I have been watching EDV and TLT the past few weeks as the inflation panic has subsided and the yield curve has flattened, and every time TLT is up, EDV is up more due to it longer duration. But today it seems a bit off. As of writin...
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15204

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

What price do you pay above spot buying/below spot selling?

I am leaning towards doing the same, paying cash and burying it on our various properties.

Thanks
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Subprime auto sales are struggling, new mortgages and refi are dropping, yield curve flattening, valuations are very high and assume debt fueled buybacks and earnings growth will continue. To me it looks like we are in the first steps of a deflationary recession. The money printed in the past 18 yrs...
by robertmcd
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15204

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

Look at gold vs S&p 500 total return since 2000, when QE and printing money to inflate asset prices became the norm. This is what concerns me. I am not saying i want to go 100% gold, but I could see myself using a decent chunk say up to 25% in a permanent portfolio type of implementation. What I am ...
by robertmcd
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15204

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I agree that everyone’s personal rate of inflation is different. Mine is probably skewed because I live in Texas, whereas the CPI takes into account the economies of this country which are in utter decay. Austin, Dallas Ft Worth, San Antonio, and Houston real estate has gotten crazy expensive. And w...
by robertmcd
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15204

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I am talking about the people that have all their money in T bills, not a diversified stock portfolio. Historically speaking if you saved enough you were able to preserve your wealth and beat inflation with essentially no risk of losing money, in the most basic of big bank savings accounts. In the p...
by robertmcd
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15204

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I am strongly considering putting a significant amount into gold. My main reason for this is looking at the performance since 2000, it has done very well. This time frame to me is really the beginning of the “new markets”. Markets that cannot survive without negative real interest rates when you loo...
by robertmcd
Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Another good reminder that you don't want to miss out on the few good days of the year like today by constantly buying and selling out of positions or haphazardly market timing. Even though I am very bearish on equities for 2018 and 2019, I will still maintain my stock exposure based on my IPS and a...
by robertmcd
Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can pension systems etc. stomach a possible coming decade of low returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 2411

Re: Can pension systems etc. stomach a possible coming decade of low returns?

I recently saw that New Jersey's pension funds unfunded liabilities were too high, so they increased their expected returns by .5% to lower them. If we up that to 20%, our pension isn't underfunded anymore!! Seriously, the pension system is a joke and the government will end up bailing them out when...
by robertmcd
Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The RBD (Really Bad Days) database
Replies: 33
Views: 5057

Re: The RBD (Really Bad Days) database

My current reflections. We may have just seen the last Fed hike of our lifetimes, no way this market can sustain 3 more hikes in 2018 and 3 more in 2019. The Fed knows this, but they also know that the bubble will only get bigger and pop harder if they allow companies to keep using cheap debt to buy...
by robertmcd
Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to put down payment savings?
Replies: 10
Views: 973

Re: Best place to put down payment savings?

CIT bank 11 month no penalty CD 1.85% Ally previously had one at 1.75%. As short term rates keep rising the no penalty CD's have been outperforming the short term government bonds because they have a duration of 0. Keep watching depositaccounts.com and move your money where it yields the highest in ...
by robertmcd
Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Federal Reserve hikes interest rate]
Replies: 34
Views: 4198

Re: Fed raises the fed rate, markets do not look efficient

In theory if it weren't priced in BND would drop by its duration x .25%, so something around a 1.25-1.5% drop. Others factor are at play here, down to the very tone that the fed chair uses when he describes the economic and inflation outlook. With one poorly used sentence the fed chair could incite ...
by robertmcd
Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard fund for Long Term Goverment Funds VLGSX or VUSUX?
Replies: 3
Views: 419

Re: Vanguard fund for Long Term Goverment Funds VLGSX or VUSUX?

VUSUX is actively managed so whether or not you think they can make up the 3 basis point difference. I would definitely choose the index fund if i was under the 50k minimum but after that I would call it a wash. Lots of more important things to worry over than the difference in these 2. Vanguard's a...
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for those planning on using Vanguard Factor ETF
Replies: 7
Views: 1064

Re: Question for those planning on using Vanguard Factor ETF

I own a lot of VSS as well, very low expense ratio considering how expensive the emerging small asset class can be. The low ER combined with the securities lending revenue makes it cheaper than total international, but it is not as tax efficient.
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for those planning on using Vanguard Factor ETF
Replies: 7
Views: 1064

Re: Question for those planning on using Vanguard Factor ETF

I think I am going to exchange my large value and total stock market in my roth for the multifactor fund. I like what I am reading from Vanguard on how it is designed. I especially like that it is managed by their quantitative equity group and doesn't follow an outside index, allowing them to mainta...
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Very strange day with bond yields rising alongside equities. CPI print seemed to matter for about 5 minutes with futures down sharply then everything was great again throughout the day. I think reality is going to set in again tomorrow or Friday, especially if we have another rise in yields.
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to choose best cost basis for funds
Replies: 5
Views: 462

Re: How to choose best cost basis for funds

When you switch to spec id it will convert the avg cost shares into their specific lots if they were purchased after Jan 1,2012. If purchase before then, it is up to you to keep track of the specific tax lots. Spec id is easy. Keep not reinvesting dividends and purchase in whatever $ increments you ...
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2481

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

This being a bond fund, I believe capital gains would either be the same (if short term) or less (if long term) than the taxes on the ordinary income. So couldn't long term capital gains actually be a better way to generate total return than with income?
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2481

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

I would say use VGIT at vanguard or SCHR if you are at schwab. Negligible difference. If you believe that low cost active management can add value then use VFIUX if you can afford the 50k for admiral shares. I believe vanguard can make up 3 basis points of difference long term vs. the index. In the ...
by robertmcd
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5618

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

That is what I am getting, that the default of these instruments is going to cause an even bigger spike in vol (since they are selling vol) which could spill over to s&p 500 futures for example. I think tomorrows open could make it in the history books if we have some kind of flash crash or systemat...
by robertmcd
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Looks like XIV is busted and will have to liquidate. There is also a large imbalance between the long vol and short vol products. I hate to mention Cramer but he is talking about this. We could be in store for a historic flash crash at the open quickly capitalized on by the algos.
by robertmcd
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rolex
Replies: 45
Views: 5203

Re: Rolex

HQ milton has nice pre owned models. Jomashop would be a good gray market dealer to look at, but honestly with a Rolex, the discounts you can find on a new model are not worth the loss of the papers and certificate, etc. Buy it from the store, keep the box and papers pristine, take it in for servici...
by robertmcd
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6630
Views: 1431362

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Treasuries rallying. I think this downturn could go on for weeks and even years at a slow death pace as rates get back to normal and stocks get crushed, if price discovery and valuations continue to matter as they are right now. However, last week the Japanese central bank put an unlimited order for...
by robertmcd
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Minimize capital gains when selling at Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 600

Re: How to Minimize capital gains when selling at Vanguard

I was planning on lowering my overall equity exposure, and I have an assortment of etf's and funds, I think excel in the only way i can do this efficiently. It really surprised me that vanguard didn't have a sort for this. The equation in excel will be $ gain*(.15 or .25 for capital gains)/market va...
by robertmcd
Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Minimize capital gains when selling at Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 600

How to Minimize capital gains when selling at Vanguard

I am trying to sell some of my appreciated ETF's and mutual funds at vanguard to rebalance, and I am trying to figure out how to sort them and select the shares I want to sell. Basically I want to pay as little $ in taxes per $ of equities I get out. So I can get back to 50/50 from 60/40 for the low...
by robertmcd
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with private investment opportunity
Replies: 47
Views: 3372

Re: Help with private investment opportunity

I see no problem in investing in something private with less than a 20x return in 3 yrs. I feel as though all of this really comes down to one thing, how risky is this investment as a company, and will it go to zero (lots of scenarios where this could occur but none seem likely), and will it be more...
by robertmcd
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with private investment opportunity
Replies: 47
Views: 3372

Re: Help with private investment opportunity

I guess I got the responses that I expected from this thread. All the research that I have done on this site has made me dislike private equity, especially when I read articles by swedroe on how it performs when risk adjusted compared to the s&p 500, let alone small cap value. Granted that is under ...
by robertmcd
Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with private investment opportunity
Replies: 47
Views: 3372

Re: Help with private investment opportunity

We are longtime friends with one of the main founders, and he is doing it as a favor.
by robertmcd
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with private investment opportunity
Replies: 47
Views: 3372

Re: Help with private investment opportunity

Thank you tyrion. That is the point I am trying to find, and it is the million dollar question when it comes to asset allocation. It is similar to my decision to not drop 200k into stocks right away in order to try and earn a 3% real return. I basically decided that I could lose 50k and not want to ...