Search found 730 matches

by rmelvey
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 26
Views: 1473

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

I love this forum, but it's not a good place to discuss cryptocurrencies unfortunately. You would never own cryptocurrencies if you listened to the consensus here, so I don't think asking this forum for advice on it is going to bear much fruit. I am personally a big believer in crypto currencies and...
by rmelvey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 3000

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

How about "it is showing all the characteristics of an asset bubble?" The area is very speculative, but bubbles usually involve wide participation and high market caps. Cryptocurrencies are still very clunky to use, limiting the field to enthusiasts right now. The entire cryptocurrency space only h...
by rmelvey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 3000

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

Just wondering if anyone has a good understanding of the significance of the 12 transactions per second thing announced about Bitcoin recently? Is it true? Does this mean Bitcoin can't scale? Can Bitcoin Cash scale? Properties and functions of money: 1. Medium of Exchange - must be widely accepted ...
by rmelvey
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this? [Change stock allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 1403

Re: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this?

I guess I don't understand why you would sell stocks then slowly buy them back, unless you were convinced the market was going to drop in the short term (which also wouldn't make sense to me). Is it because you like the idea of dollar cost averaging?
by rmelvey
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 3000

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

There is basically a civil war within the Bitcoin community right now. I don't think anyone can truly know how it will shake out. If you are participating in the crypto market the safest thing to do is own both coins in proportion to their market cap so that you are agnostic as to which side wins (s...
by rmelvey
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 3125

Re: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

I am overweight crypto relative to stocks/bonds, but within crypto I follow market cap weightings for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin cash. Due to the network effects, crypto can be somewhat of a winner takes all set up. It's safer to have stakes in multiple so that you always own the winner, just li...
by rmelvey
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 16356

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

It will be very interesting to see how bitcoin volatility and correlation changes after the roll out of futures. Thus far, bitcoin hasn't been strongly linked with traditional markets with high volatility and near zero correlation to stocks/bonds/gold/everything! I think integration via futures mark...
by rmelvey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?
Replies: 10
Views: 690

Re: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?

I think it's a bubble in the making. I just happen to think it's in the first inning so I'm still buying :P With the .com bubble if you bought early in the 90s you still made a killing even after the crash.
by rmelvey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 241
Views: 30804

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Does anyone have the bad feeling that people are joining this site and others simply to pump up Bitcoin similar to penny stocks? The level of not only troll activity but extreme fanboyism is so far out there it remind me of the dot com run up. I don't think that's a fair characterization. I've been...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life in AMT Hell (or, How I Learned to Keep Worrying and Hate the Exemption Phaseout)
Replies: 65
Views: 8186

Re: Life in AMT Hell (or, How I Learned to Keep Worrying and Hate the Exemption Phaseout)

Take a look at Michael Kitces' article here: https://www.kitces.com/blog/evaluating-exposure-to-the-alternative-minimum-tax-and-strategies-to-reduce-the-amt-bite/ It's from 2014 but he updates this periodically. There's a limited amount you can do but if you have any control over your income, you c...
by rmelvey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 49
Views: 4050

Re: anhybody buying bitcoin

I have been buying bitcoin this year. I will keep buying. It's always easy to say "I missed it" with any asset class, stocks included. This is not a recommendation for what others should do, this is just what I am doing with my money... The market is very hot and bubbly, but that doesn't mean when/i...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?
Replies: 42
Views: 3685

Re: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?

I have 2 months of expenses in a checking account and the rest invested. I think that kind of set up is what most people mean when they say "100%" invested.
by rmelvey
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best weight loss resources?
Replies: 54
Views: 2525

Re: Best weight loss resources?

I've lost around 30 pounds year to date, now down to 140. Hoping for a little bit more before year end. I did it using an app called "lose it" and weighing myself every day. I did a very restricted calorie diet for the first two months, making sure that the only calories I ate were high in protein o...
by rmelvey
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2847

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

I am 98% US equities and 2% bitcoin (excluding a small cash position). I don't invest each paycheck, but I do have limit orders set so that if it drops a lot I will pick up more. 2% might not seem like a lot, but it's very common to see 20% price swings in a day. If bitcoin ever became more than 5% ...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 3547

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

I hope Satoshi Nakamoto is fabulously rich, enjoying his wealth, and has invested it in something like municipals or Treasuries. Satoshi Nakamoto hasn't spent any of his bitcoin earnings since January 2009. It is all still in bitcoin. Due to how bitcoin works, everyone would know if he spent it. It...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 3547

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

By the way, does anybody know the status of the SEC's reconsideration of the Winklevoss "COIN" ETF? Big news in April 2017; but nothing has penetrated to my level of awareness since then. They are trying to get bitcoin futures first, because once there are futures it will be easier to get approval ...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 3547

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

Apart from the spectacular returns, which are unlikely to repeat themselves to the same degree, the near zero correlation with stocks/bonds/commodities is very attractive. Integration with the traditional finance sector is very slow and so I predict the low correlations to remain for a long time. Lo...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 6882

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Criminals are early adopters of new technology because they have to be. In the 80s drug dealers used beepers, and in the 90s car phones. Does that make the manufacturers of those products guilty? I'm not sure how you could be an index fund investor with your view of money and morality. You would be ...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4119

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Does anyone else find it ironic that people have been complaining about the low return environment for the last 8 years when we have seen huge returns in both stocks and bonds? I think it is far riskier to wait on the sidelines in hopes of a bargain that may never come. This is a form of risk that ...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4119

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Does anyone else find it ironic that people have been complaining about the low return environment for the last 8 years when we have seen huge returns in both stocks and bonds? I think it is far riskier to wait on the sidelines in hopes of a bargain that may never come. This is a form of risk that i...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]
Replies: 8
Views: 1145

Re: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]

I bought a Trezor for storing my bitcoin/ethereum that I don't want to keep on the exchanges. It strikes the right balance between convenience and security. You never have to type in your private key because the signing of the transaction is happening on the trezor device. It is expensive at $120, b...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 6882

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Regarding rebalancing, you can make a strong argument for making bitcoin part of a rebalancing program because of the high volatility. It is the best real life example I have seen for a Shannon's demon rebalancing scheme. You can harvest the high volatility by going 50% cash and 50% bitcoin and reba...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 6882

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

I would like to know what people are using bitcoin for and what percentage of it is for criminal activity, but whatever percentage it is the authorities are not befuddled by it, they are using it against criminals. I think the mainstream audience is only now beginning to realize that bitcoin is not...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor
Replies: 49
Views: 4080

Re: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor

Northwestern Mutual is one of the worst in my eyes. Friend's don't let friends...
by rmelvey
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 6882

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

If anything I'm impressed with how well the price has been holding up. The China news is big. My limit orders to buy have been triggering and I have another one down at $3,000. If you can't stomach 90% draw downs you have no business buying bitcoins and position sizing is key. No more than 5% of you...
by rmelvey
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?
Replies: 313
Views: 19287

Re: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?

I have cut down on cooking because I am single so i find my groceries end up going bad. I never know if I am going to end up staying late for work so it's hard for me to meal plan during the week. Also cooking for one is not as efficient... Luckily NYC has tons of options for eating out, so i can al...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 16356

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

This article is a little bit older, but a very thorough analysis on correlation coefficients with major asset classes.
https://www.signalplot.com/what-is-bitc ... al-assets/
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 16356

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

I think a small position can make sense if you are interested in the technology. I would make it no more than 10% of my portfolio and I would take it out of the stocks portion. It has low correlation which technically has risk reduction properties for portfolios, but it's SO volatile. I have 5% in c...
by rmelvey
Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades
Replies: 21
Views: 1965

Re: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades

Bitcoin could very well be a bubble, but I don't think Robert Shiller has spent a lot of time analyzing cryptocurrencies so I have a hard time taking his forecast too seriously. The fact that he hasn't even heard of an ICO means that he doesn't follow the space at all. Secondly, bitcoin has had doze...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"
Replies: 30
Views: 4910

Re: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"

Even if there is value being created by people who transact in Bitcoin, you don't get any of that value simply by holding Bitcoin, any more than I would get a share of the European economy by holding euros. That's not quite true. Imagine if the supply of Euros were fixed like it is with bitcoin. As...
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?
Replies: 123
Views: 7653

Re: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?

When I was in highschool I worked so that I could build my own gaming PC. I got really good use out of the machine and I learned a lot about computers during the process.
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put Tesla stock [Roth or another type of account]
Replies: 26
Views: 1133

Re: where to put Tesla stock [Roth or another type of account]

Since TSLA won't pay a dividend for a long time I would put it in taxable and keep your roth for index funds.
by rmelvey
Sat Aug 19, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 241
Views: 30804

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is a decentralized ledger with anonymous, quick transfers. It also attracts speculators because the algorithm has reliable scarcity.These features make it an interesting type of reserve. It works great in a taxable account :D
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYC real estate question
Replies: 17
Views: 1836

Re: NYC real estate question

What is drawing you to the co-op instead of renting? I feel like in NYC you can do better by renting and keeping your money invested in the stock market. I don't think comparing 1.7M apartment with a 3,500 per month rental is apples to apples. You could afford a nicer rental and just keep your money...
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need a high risk option for $250
Replies: 22
Views: 3104

Re: Need a high risk option for $250

Check out bitcoin. It has some wild swings so you certainly won't be bored 8-)
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2744

Re: Going passive is an active decision

Hussman can call me whatever he wants, I will take my returns over his.
by rmelvey
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 131
Views: 10727

Re: Bitcoin

I have money that I can afford to lose in bitcoin/ethereum. I plan on buying another $1k worth of bitcoin this week (ACH transfers take 4 days for GDAX :? ) I think bitcoin has a lot of potential. Institutions are just starting to dip their toes in. It could play a role similar to gold in portfolios...
by rmelvey
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All in stocks: Where to go now?
Replies: 24
Views: 2533

Re: All in stocks: Where to go now?

Changing because of decreased risk tolerance could make sense, but I wouldn't change course just because the account $$$ is higher. 100% indexing in stocks works the same regardless of the amount invested. It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking you need more complexity when in fact simple is be...
by rmelvey
Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Ownership / Investing
Replies: 18
Views: 1050

Re: Home Ownership / Investing

I think a lot of the people who view home ownership as a slam dunk have no interest in the stock market. In their head they are usually comparing buying a home versus renting an apartment and blowing all your money each month, which is not really a fair comparison.
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 10351

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

I am 100% stocks right now. If 10 year tips were yielding 2% I would probably have some bonds in my allocation. Until then, I am going to stick with stocks because I have a 20+ year time horizon.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save to buy home on cash
Replies: 17
Views: 1565

Re: Save to buy home on cash

Are you already maxing out retirement accounts? I think trying to pay all cash will make it very difficult to take advantage of 401k unless you have a very high income.
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 10077

Re: When does renting make sense

I live in NYC and plentyyyy of rich people rent here. In fact, the rental market mostly caters to rich people. It's harder to find a modest apartment than a luxurious one. Things I like about renting in NYC vs. buying... I can max out my 401k which I couldn't do if saving up for a down payment. This...
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1865

Re: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?

Seems fine but I personally don't like REIT tilts. Some people will scoff at holding gold, but 10% is a reasonable amount. I would consider holding some of that in physical form and then some in ETFs for the rebalancing.
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2228

Re: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?

The whole point of buying stocks is that most of the time they go up. That means they spend a lot of time in the upper right hand part of the screen. We can never predict when the next crash will be, but if you sell whenever they go up you will miss out on the long term wealth creation.
by rmelvey
Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8568

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

Stock prices follow earnings and earnings have been good. If you just followed earnings the stock market's strength wouldn't be that surprising. Low interest rates don't hurt either :D
by rmelvey
Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Capital - Questions about the "Cash Flow" feature
Replies: 23
Views: 2158

Re: Personal Capital - Questions about the "Cash Flow" feature

I use mint only to track expenses, not income. So anytime something comes in as income I just flag it as a transfer.
by rmelvey
Mon Aug 07, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you deal with financial anxiety?
Replies: 40
Views: 3312

Re: How do you deal with financial anxiety?

I do it by eating dumplings for $1.25 in Chinatown... Wait that's probably not the answer you wanted :oops:
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?
Replies: 62
Views: 10257

Re: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?

Have you outsourced all of the annoying parts of life and treated yourself to the things you enjoy the most? That can be better than quitting the high paying job. For me when I feel burned out I hire a bi-weekly cleaner, eat out more because I love food and don't like doing dishes, and get massages....
by rmelvey
Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1272

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

I always sell all when my RSUs vest and put it into VTI. My RSUs have done way better than the stock market, but hindsight is 20/20. Besides, companies usually keep issuing more RSUs so you always have some exposure to the stock through the unvested portion. My unvested RSUs are about 30% of the val...