Search found 717 matches

by rmelvey
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2201

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

I am 98% US equities and 2% bitcoin (excluding a small cash position). I don't invest each paycheck, but I do have limit orders set so that if it drops a lot I will pick up more. 2% might not seem like a lot, but it's very common to see 20% price swings in a day. If bitcoin ever became more than 5% ...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 36
Views: 2281

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

I hope Satoshi Nakamoto is fabulously rich, enjoying his wealth, and has invested it in something like municipals or Treasuries. Satoshi Nakamoto hasn't spent any of his bitcoin earnings since January 2009. It is all still in bitcoin. Due to how bitcoin works, everyone would know if he spent it. It...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 36
Views: 2281

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

By the way, does anybody know the status of the SEC's reconsideration of the Winklevoss "COIN" ETF? Big news in April 2017; but nothing has penetrated to my level of awareness since then. They are trying to get bitcoin futures first, because once there are futures it will be easier to get approval ...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 36
Views: 2281

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

Apart from the spectacular returns, which are unlikely to repeat themselves to the same degree, the near zero correlation with stocks/bonds/commodities is very attractive. Integration with the traditional finance sector is very slow and so I predict the low correlations to remain for a long time. Lo...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 81
Views: 5622

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Criminals are early adopters of new technology because they have to be. In the 80s drug dealers used beepers, and in the 90s car phones. Does that make the manufacturers of those products guilty? I'm not sure how you could be an index fund investor with your view of money and morality. You would be ...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3743

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Does anyone else find it ironic that people have been complaining about the low return environment for the last 8 years when we have seen huge returns in both stocks and bonds? I think it is far riskier to wait on the sidelines in hopes of a bargain that may never come. This is a form of risk that ...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3743

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Does anyone else find it ironic that people have been complaining about the low return environment for the last 8 years when we have seen huge returns in both stocks and bonds? I think it is far riskier to wait on the sidelines in hopes of a bargain that may never come. This is a form of risk that i...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]
Replies: 8
Views: 1023

Re: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]

I bought a Trezor for storing my bitcoin/ethereum that I don't want to keep on the exchanges. It strikes the right balance between convenience and security. You never have to type in your private key because the signing of the transaction is happening on the trezor device. It is expensive at $120, b...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 81
Views: 5622

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Regarding rebalancing, you can make a strong argument for making bitcoin part of a rebalancing program because of the high volatility. It is the best real life example I have seen for a Shannon's demon rebalancing scheme. You can harvest the high volatility by going 50% cash and 50% bitcoin and reba...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 81
Views: 5622

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

I would like to know what people are using bitcoin for and what percentage of it is for criminal activity, but whatever percentage it is the authorities are not befuddled by it, they are using it against criminals. I think the mainstream audience is only now beginning to realize that bitcoin is not...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor
Replies: 49
Views: 3754

Re: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor

Northwestern Mutual is one of the worst in my eyes. Friend's don't let friends...
by rmelvey
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 81
Views: 5622

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

If anything I'm impressed with how well the price has been holding up. The China news is big. My limit orders to buy have been triggering and I have another one down at $3,000. If you can't stomach 90% draw downs you have no business buying bitcoins and position sizing is key. No more than 5% of you...
by rmelvey
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?
Replies: 310
Views: 16379

Re: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?

I have cut down on cooking because I am single so i find my groceries end up going bad. I never know if I am going to end up staying late for work so it's hard for me to meal plan during the week. Also cooking for one is not as efficient... Luckily NYC has tons of options for eating out, so i can al...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 165
Views: 9655

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

This article is a little bit older, but a very thorough analysis on correlation coefficients with major asset classes.
https://www.signalplot.com/what-is-bitc ... al-assets/
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 165
Views: 9655

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

I think a small position can make sense if you are interested in the technology. I would make it no more than 10% of my portfolio and I would take it out of the stocks portion. It has low correlation which technically has risk reduction properties for portfolios, but it's SO volatile. I have 5% in c...
by rmelvey
Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades
Replies: 21
Views: 1786

Re: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades

Bitcoin could very well be a bubble, but I don't think Robert Shiller has spent a lot of time analyzing cryptocurrencies so I have a hard time taking his forecast too seriously. The fact that he hasn't even heard of an ICO means that he doesn't follow the space at all. Secondly, bitcoin has had doze...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"
Replies: 30
Views: 4568

Re: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"

Even if there is value being created by people who transact in Bitcoin, you don't get any of that value simply by holding Bitcoin, any more than I would get a share of the European economy by holding euros. That's not quite true. Imagine if the supply of Euros were fixed like it is with bitcoin. As...
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?
Replies: 123
Views: 6998

Re: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?

When I was in highschool I worked so that I could build my own gaming PC. I got really good use out of the machine and I learned a lot about computers during the process.
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put Tesla stock [Roth or another type of account]
Replies: 26
Views: 1000

Re: where to put Tesla stock [Roth or another type of account]

Since TSLA won't pay a dividend for a long time I would put it in taxable and keep your roth for index funds.
by rmelvey
Sat Aug 19, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23231

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is a decentralized ledger with anonymous, quick transfers. It also attracts speculators because the algorithm has reliable scarcity.These features make it an interesting type of reserve. It works great in a taxable account :D
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYC real estate question
Replies: 17
Views: 1731

Re: NYC real estate question

What is drawing you to the co-op instead of renting? I feel like in NYC you can do better by renting and keeping your money invested in the stock market. I don't think comparing 1.7M apartment with a 3,500 per month rental is apples to apples. You could afford a nicer rental and just keep your money...
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need a high risk option for $250
Replies: 22
Views: 2926

Re: Need a high risk option for $250

Check out bitcoin. It has some wild swings so you certainly won't be bored 8-)
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2552

Re: Going passive is an active decision

Hussman can call me whatever he wants, I will take my returns over his.
by rmelvey
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 124
Views: 8441

Re: Bitcoin

I have money that I can afford to lose in bitcoin/ethereum. I plan on buying another $1k worth of bitcoin this week (ACH transfers take 4 days for GDAX :? ) I think bitcoin has a lot of potential. Institutions are just starting to dip their toes in. It could play a role similar to gold in portfolios...
by rmelvey
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All in stocks: Where to go now?
Replies: 24
Views: 2357

Re: All in stocks: Where to go now?

Changing because of decreased risk tolerance could make sense, but I wouldn't change course just because the account $$$ is higher. 100% indexing in stocks works the same regardless of the amount invested. It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking you need more complexity when in fact simple is be...
by rmelvey
Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Ownership / Investing
Replies: 18
Views: 934

Re: Home Ownership / Investing

I think a lot of the people who view home ownership as a slam dunk have no interest in the stock market. In their head they are usually comparing buying a home versus renting an apartment and blowing all your money each month, which is not really a fair comparison.
by rmelvey
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 9553

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

I am 100% stocks right now. If 10 year tips were yielding 2% I would probably have some bonds in my allocation. Until then, I am going to stick with stocks because I have a 20+ year time horizon.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save to buy home on cash
Replies: 17
Views: 1446

Re: Save to buy home on cash

Are you already maxing out retirement accounts? I think trying to pay all cash will make it very difficult to take advantage of 401k unless you have a very high income.
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 9388

Re: When does renting make sense

I live in NYC and plentyyyy of rich people rent here. In fact, the rental market mostly caters to rich people. It's harder to find a modest apartment than a luxurious one. Things I like about renting in NYC vs. buying... I can max out my 401k which I couldn't do if saving up for a down payment. This...
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1799

Re: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?

Seems fine but I personally don't like REIT tilts. Some people will scoff at holding gold, but 10% is a reasonable amount. I would consider holding some of that in physical form and then some in ETFs for the rebalancing.
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2060

Re: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?

The whole point of buying stocks is that most of the time they go up. That means they spend a lot of time in the upper right hand part of the screen. We can never predict when the next crash will be, but if you sell whenever they go up you will miss out on the long term wealth creation.
by rmelvey
Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 7969

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

Stock prices follow earnings and earnings have been good. If you just followed earnings the stock market's strength wouldn't be that surprising. Low interest rates don't hurt either :D
by rmelvey
Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Capital - Questions about the "Cash Flow" feature
Replies: 23
Views: 1931

Re: Personal Capital - Questions about the "Cash Flow" feature

I use mint only to track expenses, not income. So anytime something comes in as income I just flag it as a transfer.
by rmelvey
Mon Aug 07, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you deal with financial anxiety?
Replies: 40
Views: 3087

Re: How do you deal with financial anxiety?

I do it by eating dumplings for $1.25 in Chinatown... Wait that's probably not the answer you wanted :oops:
by rmelvey
Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?
Replies: 62
Views: 9793

Re: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?

Have you outsourced all of the annoying parts of life and treated yourself to the things you enjoy the most? That can be better than quitting the high paying job. For me when I feel burned out I hire a bi-weekly cleaner, eat out more because I love food and don't like doing dishes, and get massages....
by rmelvey
Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1117

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

I always sell all when my RSUs vest and put it into VTI. My RSUs have done way better than the stock market, but hindsight is 20/20. Besides, companies usually keep issuing more RSUs so you always have some exposure to the stock through the unvested portion. My unvested RSUs are about 30% of the val...
by rmelvey
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5414

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

I also think this is important for comparing the US stock market P/E with international. The US index has more technology companies than the international index which to me justifies higher valuation because of their economic moats and growth prospects.
by rmelvey
Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 2099

Re: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?

In a retirement account where you are confident you will hold to maturity the CD is probably the smarter choice. In a taxable account I would go with the treasury due to lower taxes and the ability to easily sell it if I end up needing the money. One of bonds greatest features is liquidity and with ...
by rmelvey
Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Taxable Account - Margin? Thoughts.
Replies: 5
Views: 674

Re: Vanguard Taxable Account - Margin? Thoughts.

If you want to do a levered B&H, the only broker worth considering is interactive brokers because they have margin rates of 2.66%. Another alternative is futures contracts because you get leverage at the institutional cost to borrow, but it involves rolling your contracts manually each month and way...
by rmelvey
Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 977

Re: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield

Hi TJSI, Here is how I think about it as a long term holder. If a company pays a dividend yield of 2%, and is also buying back 2% of the shares each year, then the dividend per share also grows by 2% even if they don't change the total $ of dividend dollars paid. The long term return of stocks (abse...
by rmelvey
Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 977

S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield

I found this very interesting report that was updated as of yesterday: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/buybackdiv.pdf My favorite chart is on page 9, showing the yield of dividends + buybacks of 4.48%. Buybacks are more discretionary than dividends of course, but they do represent a return of value back...
by rmelvey
Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Eliminate 0% CC balance?
Replies: 30
Views: 2361

Re: Eliminate 0% CC balance?

You can think of managing the 0% debt as a job. Is it worth the pay? I go back and forth on this. Right now I have $2K of credit card debt with no interest for 2 years. Realistically, this is helping me earn an extra $20 in interest over two years... Probably not worth they pay but earning "free" mo...
by rmelvey
Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stop contributing to 529 on 50% chance grandparents pay
Replies: 42
Views: 3094

Re: Stop contributing to 529 on 50% chance grandparents pay

Why not just keep contributing, and then pay out of your 529 and if the grandparents want to they can cut you a check? Best of both
by rmelvey
Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much to allocate to illiquid private stock
Replies: 8
Views: 732

Re: How much to allocate to illiquid private stock

It's such a big discount it would be hard to turn down. I would be tempted to take advantage as much as I could, but then take less risks in other parts of my portfolio by holding a bit more bonds/cash than stock index funds.
by rmelvey
Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?
Replies: 29
Views: 3394

Re: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?

I think it can make sense to do a hybrid of savings accounts / long term bond funds.
by rmelvey
Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just made my very first ETF Trade - Lessons for Next time?
Replies: 74
Views: 3770

Re: Just made my very first ETF Trade - Lessons for Next time?

I just place a limit order a couple of pennies above the current market price. This makes it function like a market order, but protects me from buying an abnormal price spike. Best of both worlds
by rmelvey
Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US debt approaching $20 Trillion
Replies: 18
Views: 1478

Re: US debt approaching $20 Trillion

Inflation rates are very low right now and there is very high demand for US dollars. The debt is not a burden right now. In fact, I would be more worried about the government trying to pursue a budget surplus than a budget deficit with current conditions.
by rmelvey
Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do you go to restaurants?
Replies: 229
Views: 18959

Re: Why do you go to restaurants?

I live in NYC so cooking a lot at home just doesn't feel right... Kitchens are so small in NYC apartments and there is so much incredible food in the city.
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long treasury ETF
Replies: 3
Views: 453

Re: Long treasury ETF

I like TLT best. EDV and ZROZ have more duration (oomph) to them, but they are less liquid incurring higher bid ask/spreads.