Search found 3880 matches

by rkhusky
Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent factor loadings?
Replies: 3
Views: 552

Re: Recent factor loadings?

grabiner wrote: You can see this because the funds show a poor correlation with the predicted returns given the factor weights; the R^2 will be low.

+1. The factor loadings don't mean much when the R^2 is low. The zigs and zags of the fund's returns have to match those of the references' returns.
by rkhusky
Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 76
Views: 5136

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

... but I think we are all pretty much in agreement right now that the market is somewhat overvalued. I don't agree. The value of the market is determined by what investors are willing to pay for stocks now. The current value of the market has little to do with what it may be worth in a month or a ...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Inter. or Total Muni [VTEAX - Tax-Exempt Bond Index]
Replies: 12
Views: 975

Re: Vanguard - Int. Muni or Total Muni

VTEAX has longer term bonds and slightly higher yield. While the durations are currently similar, it may not stay that way.
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 59
Views: 3864

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

I have no problem with being 100/0 if one is 40 years from retirement with $10K in their 401K. But as the portfolio grows and retirement gets closer, one should add bonds.
by rkhusky
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth vs. Traditional debate, but for high-income Feds
Replies: 15
Views: 1422

Re: Another Roth vs. Traditional debate, but for high-income Feds

The 28% tax bracket for single goes up to $191K. Not sure how one reaches that, even with $66K pension (doubt that many feds get that high) and $1M TSP account with 4% withdrawal rate and max SS. Maybe with $3M TSP account.
by rkhusky
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth 401k or Not
Replies: 14
Views: 871

Re: Roth 401k or Not

If you expect your traditional withdrawals will be taxed at 25% or lower in retirement, traditional would be better now. All at 25% would mean that you expect about $100K in other income in retirement, such as pension or part-time employment, if married with standard deductions.
by rkhusky
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Total Stock Market Index enough...
Replies: 22
Views: 2324

Re: Is a Total Stock Market Index enough...

I don't know if this should be it's own topic, but say you only have access to an S&P 500 index fund and not a Total Stock Market Index. Is the S&P 500 enough given the same situation that the OP described? I think the S&P 500 is mostly large cap stocks. So if I had that, I would add so...
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fed employees & all the eggs in the TSP basket
Replies: 22
Views: 2110

Re: fed employees & all the eggs in the TSP basket

If Roth conversions make sense for you, you might want to transfer some of the TSP to an IRA. I hope you now have some F and/or G funds in your account now.
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?
Replies: 27
Views: 1656

Re: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?

If you are currently in Total Stock Market, that seems like too much work for too little gain. Perhaps you could find a fund that shorts your sector and see if the cost is worth it.
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA for 24 year old son
Replies: 3
Views: 588

Re: Roth IRA for 24 year old son

He'll have to dollar cost average if the gift was greater than $5500. And he should stay with TR2055 unless he likes to manage his investments and perform rebalancing and such.
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 3479

Re: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?

Why? You seem to be supposing some razor thin scenario and discounting the possibility of the stocks gains before pulling back in the bear market. Also if as in the scenario you have a 7 digit equity portfolio aren't you likely to be getting at least $15,000-$20,000 a year in dividends you could ut...
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking 2017 IRA contribution clarification
Replies: 7
Views: 408

Re: Seeking 2017 IRA contribution clarification

Backdoor Roth 2-Step: Contribute to Traditional IRA. Convert to Roth IRA the next day*. Do not deduct Traditional contribution on tax form. File Form 8806.

*Make sure you don't have any other Traditional IRA's, since they will cause problems.
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 3479

Re: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?

From your perspective what purpose are the Bonds serving? Your expenses are covered so the fluctuations in your portfolio would not be effecting your lifestyle, so what is the utility of that 70% giving you? Why would it matter if you had to sell stocks in a down market? Just trying to understand p...
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 3479

Re: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?

If SS, pension and/or annuities will cover your basic living expenses in retirement so that you would only need to tap your portfolio for some travel, new roofs or emergencies is there a reason to hold bonds at that point? Is there any reason to hold stocks at this point? Probably depends on your v...
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?
Replies: 17
Views: 1712

Re: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?

Rkhusky, Sounds like you and I are in agreement. Dave I think we're all in agreement that if one's life circumstances change, then one should reassess and potentially change their financial plans. But I wouldn't change my asset allocation because I thought the market had reached a peak and so I sho...
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 3479

Re: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?

TheTimeLord wrote:If SS, pension and/or annuities will cover your basic living expenses in retirement so that you would only need to tap your portfolio for some travel, new roofs or emergencies is there a reason to hold bonds at that point?

Is there any reason to hold stocks at this point?
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover from traditional 401K to Roth IRA?
Replies: 6
Views: 461

Re: Rollover from traditional 401K to Roth IRA?

Many (most?) 401K plans do not allow you to roll over your 401K to an IRA while you are still working for the company. But if you are retiring or moving to a different company, it should be fairly straightforward.
by rkhusky
Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?
Replies: 17
Views: 1712

Re: Why Wouldn't Everyone Customize His Own Glidepath?

It is market timing if you use the current position of the market or predictions of future short term market conditions to make asset allocation decisions. My glide path changes annually specifically so I don't have to worry about making large allocation changes at one particular point in time. edit...
by rkhusky
Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard risk tolerance survey blunder.
Replies: 41
Views: 3910

Re: Vanguard risk tolerance survey blunder.

*3!4!/5! wrote:Here's a useful link
"Vanguard portfolio allocation models"
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... llocations

Which of these has the best risk-adjusted return according to your model?
by rkhusky
Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So sick of it! [Paying off student loans]
Replies: 42
Views: 6161

Re: So sick of it! [Paying off student loans]

We have a mortgage, HEL, and car loan that we could pay off from our taxable account, but continue to pay the monthly amount because every time I think about just paying them all off, I remember the low rates we have and the fact that we have done well with the taxable investments that would go away...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth 401k to Roth IRA: Earnings can't be rolled over ???
Replies: 12
Views: 825

Re: Roth 401k to Roth IRA: Earnings can't be rolled over ???

Employer matching contributions go into a Traditional 401K even if the employee contributes to a Roth 401K. But it seems like you could roll everything into a Roth if you are willing to pay the taxes on the conversion to Roth.
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 95
Views: 8758

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

To keep things in perspective, the difference in interest between 1.05% and 1.35% APY on $50K for 60 days is only about $24. But it only takes about 5 minutes to open the CD online (or two if you want to open two at the same time), so that's about $292/hour. Well, maybe another 5 minutes to break t...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment
Replies: 28
Views: 1987

Re: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment

bloom2708 wrote:
rkhusky wrote:I suggest you stay in cash until bonds reach their peak interest rate and then buy.

:wink:

Then you just have to tell us "when" they reach the "peak" so we know too. :confused

I'm not the one sitting in cash paralyzed that interest rates might go up.
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment
Replies: 28
Views: 1987

Re: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment

I suggest you stay in cash until bonds reach their peak interest rate and then buy. Or you could reason that your bond purchase will be invested for 20+ years, which is plenty of time to reap the harvest of higher interest rates, and that you don't know anything more than the millions of other inves...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 95
Views: 8758

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

I never understood why people like this fund at times that it has higher risk and lower return than other choices. Like right now. You can get 1.25% to 1.35% returns at a few online banks today. FDIC insured. For money that's already sitting at Vanguard that we don't want to move to a bank, we coul...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Amazon [stock]
Replies: 25
Views: 2309

Re: Amazon [stock]

You need to sell Amazon and buy Costco. viewtopic.php?f=11&t=221266
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 10222

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

Still don't see how Amazon can overcome shipping costs on low-margin goods. Perhaps they're losing money now, but will jack prices when they increase their monopoly and drive all brick/mortar's out of business.
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 95
Views: 8758

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Wouldn't the after tax returns on the two municipal MMs be higher based on the fact that I would not pay taxes on them? I recall seeing somewhere on this forum that after tax returns should be calculated by taking the yield and dividing it by [1 minus the relevant tax rate]. Using my tax brackets a...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3281

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

You would think the low income of retirement would drastically favor the tIRA but if you are subject to SS taxation on each additional dollar, you can have marginal rates of 46.25% versus the 25% a working person would pay on the same income.You need to think about your situation and run the number...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 95
Views: 8758

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Yes, it would. I edited above while you were responding. Assumed (1) subject to 36% tax, (2) subject to 3% tax, (3) subject to 0% tax. Unless you expect to have a lot in the fund ($100K+), 0.04% difference is not that big. I would look at the historical differences in returns to see how much you mi...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 95
Views: 8758

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

I'm in the 33% federal tax bracket and my state tax is 3.07%. Based on my calculations, it looks like I will get the best after tax returns from the Municipal Money Market Fund. Is that correct? Are there any other issues that I should be considering? They all look to be about the same to me (after...
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard risk tolerance survey blunder.
Replies: 41
Views: 3910

Re: Vanguard risk tolerance survey blunder.

This looks to me like the potential numbers for approximately 20/80, 50/50 and 80/20 portfolios. Perhaps Vanguard used real portfolios to come up with the numbers, rather than some model distribution.
by rkhusky
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Amazon [stock]
Replies: 25
Views: 2309

Re: Amazon

bugaloo wrote:When is a good time to take a position with this stock.

My position is in accordance with the market weight in Total Stock Market.
by rkhusky
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you like receiving email confirmations of online transactions?
Replies: 21
Views: 1047

Re: Do you like receiving email confirmations of online transactions?

Interestingly even though I have signed up for electronic annual reports and prospectuses (prospecti?) I was still getting them in the mail. When I called Vanguard, they said whenever there is a change in the fund's holdings the automatically send out paper . I haven't gotten anything paper from Va...
by rkhusky
Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard new policies
Replies: 8
Views: 2044

Re: Vanguard new policies

Well, it appears something happened that my joint account brokerage account was closed without my knowledge resulting in my having to open a new brokerage account. This seems to be the problem and Vanguard could not or would not fix the problem by returning things to the way they were before the pr...
by rkhusky
Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 4
Views: 352

Re: Rebalancing

No, unless you count their balanced, LifeStrategy and Target Retirement funds as being a tool for auto-rebalancing.

A common rebalancing band is when your asset allocation is off by 5% or more. But some don't bother to rebalance and some rebalance at 1% or 2%.
by rkhusky
Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with tax efficient placement of inheritance
Replies: 15
Views: 793

Re: Help with tax efficient placement of inheritance

Do you a good REIT fund in your 401K?
For the bonds in taxable, you could go 50/50 with Intermediate Tax Exempt/CA Tax Exempt.
by rkhusky
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utah 529 plan changing age-based glide paths
Replies: 14
Views: 1149

Re: Utah 529 plan changing age-based glide paths

It seems like the Conservative, Moderate or Aggressive glide paths should be sufficiently diverse for most people, especially given the fact that you can switch between them without tax/penalty.
by rkhusky
Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3281

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

Roth gives the mathematical, and just as important , psychological freedom to use your retirement money whenever/however you want. If I have $3 million in retirement accounts and want to have some serious fun in retirement I have to overcome loss aversion to pay taxes on Traditional money but not s...
by rkhusky
Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA drifting away from soft target - are you all rebalancing?
Replies: 19
Views: 1007

Re: AA drifting away from soft target - are you all rebalancing?

Rebalancing is so much easier than checking to see if I need to rebalance that I rebalance whenever I want to - I don't have set bands.
by rkhusky
Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3281

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

My marginal tax rate is 30%, so to put $1 in Roth I have to pay $0.30 in taxes. I can put $1 in Traditional tax free. I expect to be in the 15% tax bracket in retirement, so I will have to pay $0.15 to withdraw the Traditional $1. The net is $0.70 to use Roth and $0.85 to use Traditional -> Traditi...
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3281

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

Crisium wrote:I literally mean $1 in both accounts, period.

I am aware that the $1 into Roth costs taxes initially.

True, but why would you just consider those accounts in isolation and not include your other accounts?
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3281

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

Very true. $1 in a traditional cannot be worth more than $1 in a Roth. That is an impossibility. The inverse is not true. My marginal tax rate is 30%, so to put $1 in Roth I have to pay $0.30 in taxes. I can put $1 in Traditional tax free. I expect to be in the 15% tax bracket in retirement, so I w...
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening 529's for my kids. Am I missing anything?
Replies: 12
Views: 1709

Re: Opening 529's for my kids. Am I missing anything?

With the plans you are considering, the age based portfolios should be fine. I would prefer if Vanguard had a smoother transition between bands but it's not too bad. it looks like Utah is changing it's age-based portfolios in a month or so.
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date to DIY
Replies: 14
Views: 1060

Re: Target Date to DIY

The differences are so minor that I would wait until you have more than $100K. 0.05% of $100K is $50/year. The market fluctuates by much more than that every day.
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3281

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

Taken from the article verbatim: "Both accounts have their advantages. But when researchers at Harvard Business School looked at Roth 401(k) accounts across a range of industries at companies with 10,000 or more employees, they found that savers using Roths ended up ahead. The reasons were sur...
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3281

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

That is the whole point of the article. People don't go I can save 6k pretax of 5k post tax. They just go I can save 5k. The ROTH basically tricks them into saving more. Even if it is tax inefficient (i.e. they would be better with the tIRA), saving 20% more than makes up for that. Except their tax...
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 4794

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Therefore, it's not really that risky to tilt to value. Or is it? It isn't. This is akin to equities vs. bonds. One can usually be pretty equity heavy for timeframes >10 years. Even if bonds outperform over the timeframe it isn't going to be by much. The chance of equities outperforming bonds by se...
by rkhusky
Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help a Newbie
Replies: 10
Views: 654

Re: Help a Newbie

Invest in Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 (+- 5 years) with the IRA's. What are the choices for the 403B? I am not sure what the options for the 403B plan are yet, since my wife is not eligible to participate until next June. She should still be able to get the documentation on the plan, i.e. what ...

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