Search found 3590 matches

by rkhusky
Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 40
Views: 2091

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

It's interesting that TSP appears to use a fixed amount of F Fund and then convert stocks to the G Fund over time. Is that the efficient frontier or just an easier way of doing the glide path? They say it is the efficient frontier in the document: https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/FundsL.pdf The G ...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TED Talk - Curtis "Wall Street" Carroll
Replies: 5
Views: 888

Re: TED Talk - Curtis "Wall Street" Carroll

I just heard an interview this week about how financial literacy should be taught in high school. I took an elective years ago in high school about handling a checkbook, paying bills and creating a budget, plus probably other things that I've forgotten over the years. Easy A, but kind of useful.
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Law Changes
Replies: 13
Views: 798

Re: Tax Law Changes

I can't see Roth's changing to require MDR's since the govt gets no revenue from them as they have been taxed already. True, but it might force your Roth into a taxable account earlier, where it would be taxed. Thinking about or planning for potential tax law changes is reasonable. Just like planni...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 40
Views: 2091

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

But if you then look at the details of the L2030 fund, it has 31.44% G and 6.19% F. The reason it is doing that is that the fund managers have calculated that as their best estimate of the efficient mix. Of course they could be wrong, but they are doing this in a pretty standard, best-practices sor...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 40
Views: 2091

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

And, as it has been noted, the TSP is very conservative compared to other fund families, what with recommending a 20/80 portfolio at and through retirement. Their extensive use of the G Fund fits that narrative. And I have no issue with the G Fund - it is a great fund that I would use for the safes...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay Out Of REITs?
Replies: 32
Views: 3254

Re: Stay Out Of REITs?

Keep in mind that if you own Total Stock Market (or MidCap or SmallCap), then you own REIT's. True for TSM, but in a very haphazard way. For other funds, it depends--some exclude REITs, and others don't. I really wish all funds just excluded REITs, since it would make it a lot easier just to pick m...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just switched to Vanguard and TOTALLY overwhelmed
Replies: 18
Views: 1912

Re: Just switched to Vanguard and TOTALLY overwhelmed

Do you plan to max out your Roth IRA each year? If not, sell the funds in the taxable account and put them in the Roth IRA. If yes, transfer the funds in taxable to Total Stock Market. Transfer the funds in Roth to TR 2055 and contribute annually as much as possible, up to IRA limit.
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 40
Views: 2091

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

The F Fund has consistently outperformed the G Fund over multi-year periods. But it fluctuates significantly more than the G Fund, although much less so than stock funds. One has to decide how much return one is willing to give up in order to have the stability of the G Fund returns, which is a per...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit $1.5 million, another $1 million to go
Replies: 20
Views: 3578

Re: Hit $1.5 million, another $1 million to go

Congratulations! What's crazy, at least to me, is that government pensions are the equivalent of $2,000,000 or more in savings. It ain't easy being in the private sector! Not all government pensions are created equal. At 4% SWR, $2M would yield $80K/yr. Doubt that there are many gov't pensions yiel...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing
Replies: 25
Views: 1225

Re: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing

If you are within your bands then nothing needs to be done. So, rebalancing enough to stay within your bands is perfectly fine, even if you don't reach your target allocation. In fact, some folk practice some market timing within the slack of their rebalancing bands. But for all investing decisions ...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay Out Of REITs?
Replies: 32
Views: 3254

Re: Stay Out Of REITs?

Keep in mind that if you own Total Stock Market (or MidCap or SmallCap), then you own REIT's.
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 40
Views: 2091

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

The F Fund has consistently outperformed the G Fund over multi-year periods. But it fluctuates significantly more than the G Fund, although much less so than stock funds. One has to decide how much return one is willing to give up in order to have the stability of the G Fund returns, which is a per...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 27, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 40
Views: 2091

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

It is superior to the F Fund and any other fixed income investment because it has the yield of intermediate term Treasuries, zero credit risk, and zero interest rate risk. I don't think I would use the term "superior". It is different. The F Fund has consistently outperformed the G Fund o...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on Vanguard Total Stock Market
Replies: 10
Views: 2208

Re: Article on Vanguard Total Stock Market

I use a Modified Merriman portfolio and I'm quite happy with it, although I don't yet have the 20 years in that I expect it would take for the value and small tilts to show their boost. He makes a persuasive case to me, looking at multiple 20-year periods of past returns: http://paulmerriman.com/ul...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New look at vanguard.com
Replies: 5
Views: 808

Re: New look at vanguard.com

I prefer the old format. Have had the new format for months. What would be nice is if Vanguard would let you customize your opening screen, put the links and account summary that you want there and adjust the size of the fonts. Stop for a moment in reducing ER's and put the money towards IT. My bank...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard has switched to brokerage only accounts
Replies: 101
Views: 8252

Re: Vanguard has switched to brokerage only accounts

I prefer the old mutual fund accounts and haven't upgraded. I created one new IRA account and it is of the brokerage variety. The transaction reporting seems backward with minus signs on the wrong transactions, but I figured it out. I also do not like the new account summary page format with the hug...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Boglehead wanting to sell used CFB books?
Replies: 2
Views: 541

Re: Any Boglehead wanting to sell used CFB books?

Hello all, I am thinking of taking the CFP exam. know quite a few BHs have taken it. Fortunately, am able to avoid taking the course certificaion due to some other benchmarks I meet. However, I need textbooks for each the 6 areas on the CFP test (I am leaving aside the "Capstone" requirem...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on Vanguard Total Stock Market
Replies: 10
Views: 2208

Re: Article on Vanguard Total Stock Market

Here is another article on TSM and diversification (different than small/value):

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/art ... -portfolio
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My girlfriend and her 401K, need to give her advice
Replies: 11
Views: 808

Re: My girlfriend and her 401K, need to give her advice

How many more years to retirement? If working until 70, a 50/50 portfolio would still be conservative. If working until 60, 30/70 would be conservative.
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTIVX vs. VASGX
Replies: 4
Views: 379

Re: VTIVX vs. VASGX

Don't use past performance, especially very recent performance, to choose a fund. Go with VTIVX if you want your fund to slowly get more conservative over time (less stocks) and you are comfortable with 90% in stocks and 2045 is about the time you plan to retire. Use VASGX if you want 80% in stocks ...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting mostly in cash. Please help.
Replies: 30
Views: 3867

Re: Sitting mostly in cash. Please help.

Move as much of the tax advantaged accounts to either Target Retirement 2025 (VTTVX) or LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) (or Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Fund (VSCGX) if you want to ease in slower). Once you are comfortable that you know what your stock/bond ratio should be, mo...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shouldn't one's "number" be indexed to the current PE ratio?
Replies: 20
Views: 1393

Re: Shouldn't one's "number" be indexed to the current PE ratio?

As I get closer to retirement, I am decreasing the amount of stocks that I own, such that PE becomes less and less of an issue. I plan to be 40/60 or 30/70 a few years before and a few years after retirement. I may gradually increase stocks after that, or not, depending on my situation, but never go...
by rkhusky
Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A few questions about International... VXUS, VEA, VWO... low returns
Replies: 24
Views: 1560

Re: A few questions about International... VXUS, VEA, VWO... low returns

Emerging performs better over time One things to always watch out for is verb tenses. What you should say is that "emerging has performed better over time." I say that not to be pedantic, but to point out that variations in performance generally result from events that could not have been...
by rkhusky
Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 199
Views: 7566

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

Cars already have autonomous functionality - antilock braking and stability/traction control. Cars will have hands-off the steering wheel capability for highway driving in decent weather conditions in 3 years. Total autonomy in all road environments and weather conditions is a few decades away, unle...
by rkhusky
Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

So, in your view, one doesn't need the FF model, you can just look at the current book and market equity and make a determination of growth vs value? I don't know what you mean by "one doesn't need the FF model." My point is if your definition for "high" and "low" is b...
by rkhusky
Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Place to Park Over $1m in Cash
Replies: 28
Views: 2494

Re: Best Place to Park Over $1m in Cash

$1M in Prime Money Market, $2M in Short Tax Exempt, $2M in Intermediate Tax Exempt.
by rkhusky
Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A few questions about International... VXUS, VEA, VWO... low returns
Replies: 24
Views: 1560

Re: A few questions about International... VXUS, VEA, VWO... low returns

Emerging performs better over time One things to always watch out for is verb tenses. What you should say is that "emerging has performed better over time." I say that not to be pedantic, but to point out that variations in performance generally result from events that could not have been...
by rkhusky
Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

It is abundantly clear that it is not a growth stock, it's either value or it's neither growth or value. Nope, you have that backward. It is off the far end of the "growth" side of the spectrum if growth is defined as relatively low book to market. A "value" investor in the fact...
by rkhusky
Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

Again, take a look at the HmL factor and if it is stable and the r2 value is large enough, that should tell you whether it is a value stock or not in the context of the FF model. If you believe the FF model, that is. A regression on past results when things are radically changing for a company is n...
by rkhusky
Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

If negative book value is not such a big a deal, why did F&F separate out those stocks? Because the FF model is a linear model and cannot handle the discontinuity or the extreme values when book or market approach zero. Again, take a look at the HmL factor and if it is stable and the r2 value is...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

[ But again, necessarily anyone investing in Sears right now must believe the company is going to radically increase in value. So even by your definitions, that is growth-type reasoning. No, that is value-type reasoning, i.e. no one else sees the value in the stock but we think it has a chance of b...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

Sears is clearly a value stock, probably a deep value stock. I do not see how one could possibly label it a growth stock. It clearly has positive value attributes. The original FF three-factor model used high book to market (BtM) to define "value" stocks. Sears has negative book value. Th...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

... Sears is clearly a value stock, probably a deep value stock. I do not see how one could possibly label it a growth stock. It clearly has positive value attributes. It is, clearly... CRSP (and most other indexes) just set the negative attributes to zero, and failing to have any growth attributes...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

Right, I usually don't try to distinguish between the styles, but there are very clear definitions that an index, or factor investor uses. So I am pretty sure any FF-style factor investor should be categorizing Sears as a small "growth" stock right now (or more precisely, a positive-small...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

Sears is a former large-cap company that's now a small-cap company. So Sears is an example of a small value stock? Looks like it's in Vanguard's Small-Value index fund, hits Morningstar's small-value style box, and from a Fama-French Factor regression on PortfolioVisualizer it has a a positive load...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index investing question
Replies: 22
Views: 1565

Re: Index investing question

Everyone doesn't use the same index.
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4182

Re: Small cap fund index question

JoMoney wrote:Sears is a former large-cap company that's now a small-cap company.
So Sears is an example of a small value stock?
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1331

Re: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio

Even the site's well known "dipster", doesn't keep his "dry powder" in cash, but in his previously determined asset allocation (AA). Keeping your "dry powder" in the US Market (or in bonds according to your previously determined AA) is what you want to do if you are goi...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1331

Re: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio

Hello, What am wondering is if I have a portfolio made up of US Stocks, International Stocks, and REITs, would it be wise to strategically invest in assets when they're "on sale" over keeping a perfectly balanced portfolio. For example right now the US Stocks are at an all-time high and i...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral
Replies: 12
Views: 1042

Re: Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral

Frankly, if you are looking for funds based on recent performance without considering what stocks the funds contain or how much risk you are taking (full disclosure: this is how I started investing too), it might be worthwhile to start with the Vanguard Target Retirement fund that is closest to your...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares - Lacking Small and Mid-Cap
Replies: 16
Views: 1345

Re: Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares - Lacking Small and Mid-Cap

According to Morningstar's definitions of size, the S&P 500 does contain a healthy dose of mid-cap stocks, so they are really just missing the small-cap and some mid cap.
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6591

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

We'll have to agree to disagree, because I see fundamental differences between 3-funders, factor investors, fundamental investors, stock brokers, day traders, and the like. Well, there are certainly some differences. Which differences you consider "fundamental" is usually going to be a ma...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6591

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

We'll have to agree to disagree, because I see fundamental differences between 3-funders, factor investors, fundamental investors, stock brokers, day traders, and the like. Well, there are certainly some differences. Which differences you consider "fundamental" is usually going to be a ma...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6591

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

Sure, stock pickers use those lines all the time. And denigrate the indexer who has all the "bad" companies in their fund, rather than simply keeping the good ones and filtering out the bad ones, which is what your high-powered investment manager will do. But again you can raise this to a...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6591

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

I can't say that I know much about them, but I've seen posts here talking about the tulip market and about investing in trading ships heading to the far east. These probably pre-date value or small investing. Those were probably the "growth" (high prices relative to value of underlying as...
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6591

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

Well, value investing has been around in some form for a long time, arguably long before stock markets. Small investing has also been around a long time in various guises. Momentum has also been around in some form a long time, and so on. I can't say that I know much about them, but I've seen posts...
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6591

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

I think it's obvious that Mid and Small Cap have some return greater than the Market Portfolio long term. Here's what's deceiving. The DJIA, 500, MidCap Index, and SmallCap Index all have returns of 7.9 to 8.0 percent for a 3 year comparative period. So where's the premium people would say. It's in...
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxes- okay to just drop in the mail today??
Replies: 29
Views: 3131

Re: Taxes- okay to just drop in the mail today??

If your accountant prepares 11 or more returns in a calendar year, he is required to use efile, unless he or you has an exemption or waiver. As jebmke knows, a third party preparer (whether paid or volunteer) can only efile the return if the client signs documents (8879 and state counterpart forms)...
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $10 withdrawal by the IRS?
Replies: 17
Views: 1759

Re: $10 withdrawal by the IRS?

Credit card thieves typically start with a small purchase to see if the card works. Could be doing the same with a bank transfer.
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 6591

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

In case of slowly varying or semi-constant factors, one only needs an estimate of the future factor premia. Right, and quite a few people believe we can estimate all that within useful limits, with the help of historic studies. The estimate of the future premia is the crux of the issue. The validit...

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