Search found 290 matches

by raven15
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 56
Views: 4985

Re: The overselling of international diversification

My understanding is that US/Int have lowest correlation over periods of around 2-5 years. Usually people never examine periods longer than 1 year though. Especially not those cited in this thread.
by raven15
Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3137

Re: Gold ETF

Check out the Permanent Portfolio book and forum for discussion. The book lists several methods to invest in gold with discussion of each. ETF's are the better than nothing but not ideal solution. I agree with above that CEF may be the best choice. After that is physical ownership at a hidden locati...
by raven15
Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shooting for the moon as a young investor
Replies: 19
Views: 2075

Re: Shooting for the moon as a young investor

I think this could be acceptable, but it would need to have a large positive expected average return. For example, lotteries or gambling have a negative expected return. Bernstein suggests possibly having 60% small cap value stocks, 20% foreign emerging markets stocks, 20% small cap foreign develope...
by raven15
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation Hedge: I Can't Convince Myself to Do It
Replies: 8
Views: 887

Re: Deflation Hedge: I Can't Convince Myself to Do It

Any sort of bonds or cash are a deflation hedge, though the less credit risk the better. If you only invest in stocks then yes you are vulnerable to deflation, and perhaps keeping a small percentage in long term government bonds is something you should consider (I do). If you have 20% or more in bon...
by raven15
Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni
Replies: 30
Views: 2305

Re: High yield muni

That being said, VWAHX is far from being risky as many previous posters incorrectly implied. The OP's reference above was to an American Century actively-managed fund (see "Believe," above). It is not a winner in many ways, imo. The OP's suggested allocation was being 100% in a high-yield muni fund...
by raven15
Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets (VEMAX) back to even
Replies: 4
Views: 1107

Re: Emerging Markets (VEMAX) back to even

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:45 pm
Did it throw off any dividends in that period?
It is back to even with dividends reinvested. If you account for inflation, or exclude dividends, or both, it is still deep below sea level.
by raven15
Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni
Replies: 30
Views: 2305

Re: High yield muni

That being said, VWAHX is far from being risky as many previous posters incorrectly implied. The OP's reference above was to an American Century actively-managed fund (see "Believe," above). It is not a winner in many ways, imo. The OP's suggested allocation was being 100% in a high-yield muni fund...
by raven15
Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni
Replies: 30
Views: 2305

Re: High yield muni

Basically the period you backtested was unusually good for bonds, while stocks went through rough times, especially international stocks over the past ten years. It will be hard for VWAHX to continue that run for much longer given the current low rates. That being said, VWAHX is far from being risky...
by raven15
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 5419

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I think this is the time to make the point made by Jared Diamond in Collapse * (a book which I recommend everyone who has future generations such as their own children, nieces & nephews, in mind, to read and think about) https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Succeed-Revised/dp/0143117009...
by raven15
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities
Replies: 79
Views: 7583

Re: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities

I'd say that is very reasonable. First, a 4% withdrawal rate from a 100% stock portfolio has succeeded 95% of the time in US history and since it didn't fail in 2008 it probably won't now. Second, Social Security counts as a bond. If it is 50% of his income, you could say he is 50% bonds. Third, he ...
by raven15
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1435
Views: 573624

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

Summary: Econ grad student applies Mortgage Your Retirement theory at the top of the last bull market, starting around 2x leverage, loses $210K of borrowed money, and is forced is to sell what's left of his portfolio at S&P 821 in November 2008. The complete wipeout results in a reflective period w...
by raven15
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1161

Re: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

Invest 20% to 50% of stocks in international indices, because historical currency fluctuations have usually placed the minimum volatility point somewhere within that range? As in yes, volatility with 20-50% of stocks denominated in different currencies has historically been less than with 100% of st...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 37270

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

On which page does this chart appear. I'd like to read the pursuing discussion....the whole thing is too tedious. Mortality as represented here can indeed be misleading. The chart begins at age 40. So, this is the probabilistic mortality path for a 40 year old and only applies to those retiring at ...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 37270

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Great chart. It clearly shows something most of us don't look at...the chance of death. We worry about having enough money to age 95. And I get it the goal needs to be to have a sustainable lifestyle/withdrawal rate to last as long as we do. But this sort of makes you realize that the odds are that...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 37270

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/maizeman/dead_broke/master/DAB_graphs/Example_Output.png Courtesy of maizeman on the Mr. Money Mustache forum. It combines historical stock data and social security actuarial data. It puts the odds of the 4% rule failing in the proper perspective. Blue is having an...
by raven15
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optum HSA
Replies: 11
Views: 1481

Re: Optum HSA

Great, thanks for sharing! At first I really regretted not having Vanguard funds, but now I am not so sure. Expense ratio is the only guarantee, but so far the available S&P400 NTIAX and even more so S&P600 DISSX have convincingly outperformed Vanguard small cap despite the expense ratio disadvantag...
by raven15
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 56
Views: 6073

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

This is excellent news, thanks for posting. I use the Intermediate-Term Government bond as my sole bond holding (I used to use the IT Corporate bond Index fund too, but dropped for tax cost reasons). I just looked at the Agency bond weighting in the fund recently and was pleased it was so low, espe...
by raven15
Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR looks so good to me right now
Replies: 6
Views: 1333

Re: VBR looks so good to me right now

I bought VTI yesterday and was satisfied but today for some unknown reason I peeked at the market today. Bad idea ! VBR looks so good to me right now at 2:40 pm but my IPS indicates only buy VTI and don`t overweight anything via the general U.S. market as per John Bogle in his books so I`ll just ha...
by raven15
Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8527

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

It seems that everyone in my group of friends keep on talking about ... how bad the world situation is... "There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these peo...
by raven15
Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 34928

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

As somebody who has been very negative on international stocks on these forums, I'd like to disclose that 20% of my portfolio is in international stocks. However, I simply can't bring myself to invest in a total market international fund given so many 20 year periods of poor returns. Therefore, I t...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 34928

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Darn you Triceratop. This thread should die, but then you posted and made it seem all respectable, so I posted too. I was away this past week, and had to contribute my 2¢ (globally diversified 2¢ of course). Those plots I posted from siamond should really end the thread, but I have full confidence ...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 34928

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Darn you Triceratop. This thread should die, but then you posted and made it seem all respectable, so I posted too.
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 34928

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

From what I've seen and recall, a Japanese investor still did okay if they held a good portion of bonds. IMO, the stock/bond percentage one holds is more important than the US/INT percentages. If one holds 100% stocks or even 80/20, sure they may not want to put all their eggs in one basket. But, I...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 34928

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

From what I've seen and recall, a Japanese investor still did okay if they held a good portion of bonds. IMO, the stock/bond percentage one holds is more important than the US/INT percentages. If one holds 100% stocks or even 80/20, sure they may not want to put all their eggs in one basket. But, I...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3301

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Within backtesting range, the best funds of this type have been Schwab Fundamental International Small Company (SFILX) and iShares MSCI EAFE Small cap (SCZ), with both coming out ahead of VINEX. Note both of those are developed markets funds only. This gives me a feeling that not only is VINEX not s...
by raven15
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return
Replies: 18
Views: 1294

Re: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return

There is lots of "blah blah blah" about currency volatility, but in theory and in practice the result of currency volatility has been that a range of 20%-50% of stocks in unhedged international stock investments has generally been the point of minimum volatility. Note that the center of the range is...
by raven15
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 34928

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

International stocks, IMO, have at least 3 clear disadvantages relative to US stocks, even if the gross expected returns were about the same: 1) Higher ERs for funds (or more investment difficulty for direct investment). Spread may be less now than it once was, but there is still a difference. 2) T...
by raven15
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields
Replies: 42
Views: 3728

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields

Nice article by Larry, and it makes a point that I've been arguing on this board for quite a while: that for about a decade now, yields on high grade munis have been comparable (and often higher) than Treasuries of equal maturity. So why does the conventional dogma about bonds in tax-advantaged sti...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 9338

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Funnily, anyone who spends a small amount of time backtesting can come to the same conclusion as this paper pretty easily. I reached this conclusion (that REIT's are 95% not special) about six months after I learned that a mutual fund was a thing. Not coincidentally, I don't explicitly invest in REI...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7234

Re: The Quest for Perfection

In all respect to those suggesting I backtest your tie, that's amusing, but I spent a lot of time constructing this proposal and intended it as a starting point for serious discussion. It was aimed at me, not you. Other than the complexity and the large number of small allocations, are there any gl...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7234

Re: The Quest for Perfection

No, I think I understood it. It is the perfect portfolio for people who backtest using Portfolio Charts. Not for other people. Then it is I who don't understand. Different people can have different financial needs and targets. Are you saying that portfolio is the best for all of them, as long as th...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7234

Re: The Quest for Perfection

This is the perfect portfolio: ... "perfect" for whom ? For anyone who backtests using Portfolio Charts. Not sure you understood my question. This is the perfect tie, btw. http://www.realmenrealstyle.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/NEcktie-Darkknot-Tie-400.jpg No, I think I understood it. It is the ...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7234

Re: The Quest for Perfection

aegis965 wrote:
raven15 wrote:Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect.
Here you go.
http://faculty.london.edu/avmiguel/DeMi ... al-RFS.pdf
Here it is.
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7234

Re: The Quest for Perfection

Thesaints wrote:
raven15 wrote:This is the perfect portfolio:
...
"perfect" for whom ?
For anyone who backtests using Portfolio Charts.
by raven15
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7234

Re: The Quest for Perfection

aegis965 wrote:
raven15 wrote:Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect.
Here you go.
Probably a nice paper, but unreadable. I think I saw a summary or discussion somewhere a year or two ago though.
by raven15
Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7234

Re: The Quest for Perfection

This is the perfect portfolio: 50% US small cap value 15% developed markets small cap 15% emerging markets 10% long term treasuries 10% gold bullion Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect. Actually the best framework I have seen for a more complex portfolio is t...
by raven15
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense Ratios, how high is too high
Replies: 72
Views: 4846

Re: Expense Ratios, how high is too high

If you can't live without emerging markets small cap, 0.65% is the highest.

Otherwise you can fulfill your wildest investing dreams with funds of expense ratio 0.40% and less.

If you don't have wild investing dreams you can get all you need for 0.15% or less.
by raven15
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTTSX (TR 2060) vs VLXVX (TR 2065)
Replies: 5
Views: 591

Re: VTTSX (TR 2060) vs VLXVX (TR 2065)

Vanguard just released VLXVX (target retirement 2065). At a price of $20 im rather intrigued to swap it in place of my TR 2060. I feel all these target retirement fund start at $20, go up $10-15 then linger (am i wrong here)? Thoughts on doing so? TR 2065 still has a 90/10 stock/bond split. I would...
by raven15
Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Value Tilting
Replies: 29
Views: 2252

Re: International Value Tilting

FNDF Schwab Fundamental International Large Company Index ETF 0.25% ER FNDC Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index ETF 0.39% ER FNDE Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Large Company Index ETF 0.39% ER DGS WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund ETF 0.63% ER Do you use thos...
by raven15
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2698

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

AlohaJoe wrote:Some beliefs that I used to have...
That credit risk isn't rewarded, so one should only invest in Treasuries.
What changed your mind on this one?
by raven15
Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18174

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

If room for holding value funds is tight and you want deep exposure in one fund, it makes sense to hold RZV (Guggenheim S&P 600 Pure Value) at 0.35% expenses. This ETF has very deep value exposure, and is mostly micro-caps. It is also suitable for a taxable account because of its extremely low yiel...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 2163

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

Note that the existence of #5 on the list is a reason not to have all one's bonds in retirement accounts--if all you have in taxable is stocks, you may end up realizing a lot of capital gains. That was what I decided too. I don't need bonds for the long run, hence tax sheltered accounts have only s...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF vs Mutual Fund (for an Index Fund)
Replies: 20
Views: 1961

Re: ETF vs Mutual Fund (for an Index Fund)

I will be transferring an account to either Fidelity or Vanguard and place it in to a S&P 500 index fund. What it the difference between a mutual S&P 500 index fund and an ETF S&P 500 index fund? What are the advantage/cons of each? Thanks in advance. If use use Fidelity and it is taxable, the mutu...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 2163

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

Mine is. Or actually, I don't officially have an emergency fund. I have about three months of expenses in checking strictly for convenience. Then there is the taxable account, with a seperate and slightly more conservative allocation than tax sheltered. The bond funds there are evenly split between ...
by raven15
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 7090

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Currency diversification is not a benefit for the individual investor who has most outlays in a single currency. If I recall, US consumers source 20-40% of their purchases from abroad. It may not be a coincidence that 30-40% of stocks in international is usually shown to minimize currency risk. You...
by raven15
Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 7090

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Thesaints wrote:Currency diversification is not a benefit for the individual investor who has most outlays in a single currency.
If I recall, US consumers source 20-40% of their purchases from abroad. It may not be a coincidence that 30-40% of stocks in international is usually shown to minimize currency risk.
by raven15
Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 27, Single, 25k Income with 100k Cash - Lost
Replies: 29
Views: 3212

Re: 27, Single, 25k Income with 100k Cash - Lost

I'm 27 years old. Self employed with estimated income around 25k this year and no debt. I have 100k in cash and I've spent the last couple months trying to figure this stuff out. My goal is to move the 100k into Roth accounts over the next 3 years while my income is low. Everything is going into ta...
by raven15
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 6977

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

Well Bogle makes the point that if the US underperformed for a long time, the rest of the world would be hurt as well. I was really blown away by his discipline in this chapter. Especially because the entire investing community disagrees with him! He has no way of knowing this, and I don't think it...
by raven15
Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 5021

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Is there any fundamental reasons to only own the stocks whose names start with the letters A through L? If it's a global market and all companies (at least big ones) get revenue from all over the world, then the decision to exclude them really falls into the A-L category. That said, is there any ma...
by raven15
Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 6977

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

While I truly understand broad diversification and not aiming to predict the future, I do get worried about investing in "unknown" markets seeking higher returns. I may just be happy enough with what the US gives me. Thoughts? I added international stocks after reading Bernstein's "Deep Risk" book(...