Search found 282 matches

by raven15
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I think this is the time to make the point made by Jared Diamond in Collapse * (a book which I recommend everyone who has future generations such as their own children, nieces & nephews, in mind, to read and think about) https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Succeed-Revised/dp/0143117009...
by raven15
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities
Replies: 72
Views: 5817

Re: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities

I'd say that is very reasonable. First, a 4% withdrawal rate from a 100% stock portfolio has succeeded 95% of the time in US history and since it didn't fail in 2008 it probably won't now. Second, Social Security counts as a bond. If it is 50% of his income, you could say he is 50% bonds. Third, he ...
by raven15
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1435
Views: 568704

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

Summary: Econ grad student applies Mortgage Your Retirement theory at the top of the last bull market, starting around 2x leverage, loses $210K of borrowed money, and is forced is to sell what's left of his portfolio at S&P 821 in November 2008. The complete wipeout results in a reflective period w...
by raven15
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1053

Re: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

Invest 20% to 50% of stocks in international indices, because historical currency fluctuations have usually placed the minimum volatility point somewhere within that range? As in yes, volatility with 20-50% of stocks denominated in different currencies has historically been less than with 100% of st...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 34367

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

On which page does this chart appear. I'd like to read the pursuing discussion....the whole thing is too tedious. Mortality as represented here can indeed be misleading. The chart begins at age 40. So, this is the probabilistic mortality path for a 40 year old and only applies to those retiring at ...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 34367

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Great chart. It clearly shows something most of us don't look at...the chance of death. We worry about having enough money to age 95. And I get it the goal needs to be to have a sustainable lifestyle/withdrawal rate to last as long as we do. But this sort of makes you realize that the odds are that...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 34367

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/maizeman/dead_broke/master/DAB_graphs/Example_Output.png Courtesy of maizeman on the Mr. Money Mustache forum. It combines historical stock data and social security actuarial data. It puts the odds of the 4% rule failing in the proper perspective. Blue is having an...
by raven15
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optum HSA
Replies: 11
Views: 1396

Re: Optum HSA

Great, thanks for sharing! At first I really regretted not having Vanguard funds, but now I am not so sure. Expense ratio is the only guarantee, but so far the available S&P400 NTIAX and even more so S&P600 DISSX have convincingly outperformed Vanguard small cap despite the expense ratio disadvantag...
by raven15
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 56
Views: 5672

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

This is excellent news, thanks for posting. I use the Intermediate-Term Government bond as my sole bond holding (I used to use the IT Corporate bond Index fund too, but dropped for tax cost reasons). I just looked at the Agency bond weighting in the fund recently and was pleased it was so low, espe...
by raven15
Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR looks so good to me right now
Replies: 6
Views: 1259

Re: VBR looks so good to me right now

I bought VTI yesterday and was satisfied but today for some unknown reason I peeked at the market today. Bad idea ! VBR looks so good to me right now at 2:40 pm but my IPS indicates only buy VTI and don`t overweight anything via the general U.S. market as per John Bogle in his books so I`ll just ha...
by raven15
Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8022

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

It seems that everyone in my group of friends keep on talking about ... how bad the world situation is... "There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these peo...
by raven15
Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33026

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

As somebody who has been very negative on international stocks on these forums, I'd like to disclose that 20% of my portfolio is in international stocks. However, I simply can't bring myself to invest in a total market international fund given so many 20 year periods of poor returns. Therefore, I t...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33026

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Darn you Triceratop. This thread should die, but then you posted and made it seem all respectable, so I posted too. I was away this past week, and had to contribute my 2¢ (globally diversified 2¢ of course). Those plots I posted from siamond should really end the thread, but I have full confidence ...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33026

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Darn you Triceratop. This thread should die, but then you posted and made it seem all respectable, so I posted too.
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33026

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

From what I've seen and recall, a Japanese investor still did okay if they held a good portion of bonds. IMO, the stock/bond percentage one holds is more important than the US/INT percentages. If one holds 100% stocks or even 80/20, sure they may not want to put all their eggs in one basket. But, I...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33026

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

From what I've seen and recall, a Japanese investor still did okay if they held a good portion of bonds. IMO, the stock/bond percentage one holds is more important than the US/INT percentages. If one holds 100% stocks or even 80/20, sure they may not want to put all their eggs in one basket. But, I...
by raven15
Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3119

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Within backtesting range, the best funds of this type have been Schwab Fundamental International Small Company (SFILX) and iShares MSCI EAFE Small cap (SCZ), with both coming out ahead of VINEX. Note both of those are developed markets funds only. This gives me a feeling that not only is VINEX not s...
by raven15
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return
Replies: 18
Views: 1205

Re: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return

There is lots of "blah blah blah" about currency volatility, but in theory and in practice the result of currency volatility has been that a range of 20%-50% of stocks in unhedged international stock investments has generally been the point of minimum volatility. Note that the center of the range is...
by raven15
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33026

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

International stocks, IMO, have at least 3 clear disadvantages relative to US stocks, even if the gross expected returns were about the same: 1) Higher ERs for funds (or more investment difficulty for direct investment). Spread may be less now than it once was, but there is still a difference. 2) T...
by raven15
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields
Replies: 42
Views: 3442

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields

Nice article by Larry, and it makes a point that I've been arguing on this board for quite a while: that for about a decade now, yields on high grade munis have been comparable (and often higher) than Treasuries of equal maturity. So why does the conventional dogma about bonds in tax-advantaged sti...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8685

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Funnily, anyone who spends a small amount of time backtesting can come to the same conclusion as this paper pretty easily. I reached this conclusion (that REIT's are 95% not special) about six months after I learned that a mutual fund was a thing. Not coincidentally, I don't explicitly invest in REI...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6926

Re: The Quest for Perfection

In all respect to those suggesting I backtest your tie, that's amusing, but I spent a lot of time constructing this proposal and intended it as a starting point for serious discussion. It was aimed at me, not you. Other than the complexity and the large number of small allocations, are there any gl...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6926

Re: The Quest for Perfection

No, I think I understood it. It is the perfect portfolio for people who backtest using Portfolio Charts. Not for other people. Then it is I who don't understand. Different people can have different financial needs and targets. Are you saying that portfolio is the best for all of them, as long as th...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6926

Re: The Quest for Perfection

This is the perfect portfolio: ... "perfect" for whom ? For anyone who backtests using Portfolio Charts. Not sure you understood my question. This is the perfect tie, btw. http://www.realmenrealstyle.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/NEcktie-Darkknot-Tie-400.jpg No, I think I understood it. It is the ...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6926

Re: The Quest for Perfection

aegis965 wrote:
raven15 wrote:Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect.
Here you go.
http://faculty.london.edu/avmiguel/DeMi ... al-RFS.pdf
Here it is.
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6926

Re: The Quest for Perfection

Thesaints wrote:
raven15 wrote:This is the perfect portfolio:
...
"perfect" for whom ?
For anyone who backtests using Portfolio Charts.
by raven15
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6926

Re: The Quest for Perfection

aegis965 wrote:
raven15 wrote:Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect.
Here you go.
Probably a nice paper, but unreadable. I think I saw a summary or discussion somewhere a year or two ago though.
by raven15
Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6926

Re: The Quest for Perfection

This is the perfect portfolio: 50% US small cap value 15% developed markets small cap 15% emerging markets 10% long term treasuries 10% gold bullion Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect. Actually the best framework I have seen for a more complex portfolio is t...
by raven15
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense Ratios, how high is too high
Replies: 72
Views: 4508

Re: Expense Ratios, how high is too high

If you can't live without emerging markets small cap, 0.65% is the highest.

Otherwise you can fulfill your wildest investing dreams with funds of expense ratio 0.40% and less.

If you don't have wild investing dreams you can get all you need for 0.15% or less.
by raven15
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTTSX (TR 2060) vs VLXVX (TR 2065)
Replies: 5
Views: 509

Re: VTTSX (TR 2060) vs VLXVX (TR 2065)

Vanguard just released VLXVX (target retirement 2065). At a price of $20 im rather intrigued to swap it in place of my TR 2060. I feel all these target retirement fund start at $20, go up $10-15 then linger (am i wrong here)? Thoughts on doing so? TR 2065 still has a 90/10 stock/bond split. I would...
by raven15
Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Value Tilting
Replies: 29
Views: 2128

Re: International Value Tilting

FNDF Schwab Fundamental International Large Company Index ETF 0.25% ER FNDC Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index ETF 0.39% ER FNDE Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Large Company Index ETF 0.39% ER DGS WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund ETF 0.63% ER Do you use thos...
by raven15
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2602

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

AlohaJoe wrote:Some beliefs that I used to have...
That credit risk isn't rewarded, so one should only invest in Treasuries.
What changed your mind on this one?
by raven15
Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 89
Views: 12245

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

If room for holding value funds is tight and you want deep exposure in one fund, it makes sense to hold RZV (Guggenheim S&P 600 Pure Value) at 0.35% expenses. This ETF has very deep value exposure, and is mostly micro-caps. It is also suitable for a taxable account because of its extremely low yiel...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 2058

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

Note that the existence of #5 on the list is a reason not to have all one's bonds in retirement accounts--if all you have in taxable is stocks, you may end up realizing a lot of capital gains. That was what I decided too. I don't need bonds for the long run, hence tax sheltered accounts have only s...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF vs Mutual Fund (for an Index Fund)
Replies: 20
Views: 1762

Re: ETF vs Mutual Fund (for an Index Fund)

I will be transferring an account to either Fidelity or Vanguard and place it in to a S&P 500 index fund. What it the difference between a mutual S&P 500 index fund and an ETF S&P 500 index fund? What are the advantage/cons of each? Thanks in advance. If use use Fidelity and it is taxable, the mutu...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 2058

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

Mine is. Or actually, I don't officially have an emergency fund. I have about three months of expenses in checking strictly for convenience. Then there is the taxable account, with a seperate and slightly more conservative allocation than tax sheltered. The bond funds there are evenly split between ...
by raven15
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 6850

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Currency diversification is not a benefit for the individual investor who has most outlays in a single currency. If I recall, US consumers source 20-40% of their purchases from abroad. It may not be a coincidence that 30-40% of stocks in international is usually shown to minimize currency risk. You...
by raven15
Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 6850

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Thesaints wrote:Currency diversification is not a benefit for the individual investor who has most outlays in a single currency.
If I recall, US consumers source 20-40% of their purchases from abroad. It may not be a coincidence that 30-40% of stocks in international is usually shown to minimize currency risk.
by raven15
Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 27, Single, 25k Income with 100k Cash - Lost
Replies: 29
Views: 3023

Re: 27, Single, 25k Income with 100k Cash - Lost

I'm 27 years old. Self employed with estimated income around 25k this year and no debt. I have 100k in cash and I've spent the last couple months trying to figure this stuff out. My goal is to move the 100k into Roth accounts over the next 3 years while my income is low. Everything is going into ta...
by raven15
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 6545

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

Well Bogle makes the point that if the US underperformed for a long time, the rest of the world would be hurt as well. I was really blown away by his discipline in this chapter. Especially because the entire investing community disagrees with him! He has no way of knowing this, and I don't think it...
by raven15
Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4819

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Is there any fundamental reasons to only own the stocks whose names start with the letters A through L? If it's a global market and all companies (at least big ones) get revenue from all over the world, then the decision to exclude them really falls into the A-L category. That said, is there any ma...
by raven15
Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 6545

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

While I truly understand broad diversification and not aiming to predict the future, I do get worried about investing in "unknown" markets seeking higher returns. I may just be happy enough with what the US gives me. Thoughts? I added international stocks after reading Bernstein's "Deep Risk" book(...
by raven15
Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a habit of checking the market all day?
Replies: 38
Views: 2783

Re: Anyone have a habit of checking the market all day?

I do this at work. I type about a dozen tickers in representing my investments or random ones I thought about. It is actually an internet addiction rather than an investing addiction, otherwise I would type in weather or news or something equally pointless and noisy. I use leechblock to keep away th...
by raven15
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 3156

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

VGIT/VSIGX Vanguard Intermediate Government: This fund includes agency debt, which increases yield a tiny amount, about 0.1% over SCHR. In theory there may be credit risk to agency debt, but it has not shown up and standard deviation has been identical to SCHR. SCHR Schwab Intermediate treasury: Al...
by raven15
Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 59
Views: 4640

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

Simply stated, my question is when someone has such a long investment horizon, why bonds at all? I understand bonds typically temper your losses when the market crashes, but they also temper your gains when the equity market is bullish. Furthermore, though they temper losses during down times, that...
by raven15
Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 3156

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

...The active fund [VFITX] is benchmark against BloomBarc US 5-10 Yr Treasury Index . I am in the process of considering breaking up the Vg intermediate Term Index into its components and didn't realize how similar the two Treasury/Government funds have been in the past. Thanks guys. I don't think ...
by raven15
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 3156

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I was being facetious. I can think of no good reason for active management for this fund, and yes the idea that some Treasuries will outperform is ridiculous. I can think of a score. Most bond indexes only cover 10% of the most actively bonds, if you are willing to take a little liquidity risk you ...
by raven15
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 3156

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Anyone can do the research in just a few minutes on portfolio visualizer, but what I found was that I prefer these funds in approximately this order based on history since 2010 ish (many are relatively new): VGIT/VSIGX Vanguard Intermediate Government: This fund includes agency debt, which increases...
by raven15
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 3156

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

On 12/22 VFITX had a capital gain distribution of about 1%. Capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than interest. The cap gains is probably a result of roll yield which is usually thought of as a good thing. The funny thing is, this started as an investigation of "roll yield." I was thin...
by raven15
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 3156

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Wow, price charts are super annoying. I thought simply adding VFITX would make it total return. I wish they would default to total return, or at least have big red text telling what it is and having a large and obvious button to toggle between. I figured someone would have said something by now, I s...