Search found 323 matches

by raven15
Thu May 17, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

I understand that when you retire, you still have many years to go, but I wouldn't think I'd be ok with LT bonds at that point. Maybe I would with a smaller portion. Right now BLV (VBLTX, VG LT bond fund) has a duration of 14.9 years. If you had 30 years till retirement when would you stop buying t...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

OK... so you are saying that longer term bonds did better than shorter term bonds, but actually longer term did worse because if instead you had invested in mostly cash you would have done worse than shorter term bonds. It's all starting to make sense... :confused Do you understand risk-adjusted re...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

I'm talking about relative value. If you had owned 10yr treasuries in 2007 as you suggested was a good idea, you'd have been better off selling them and buying 2yr treasuries instead. That's what the graph I showed says. So, if we presuppose something "has" to give, why would we think it has to be ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 8092

Re: On the topic of Saving vs Savings

Bogleheads: We seem to be getting tripped up on a semantic point: not all saving results in an increase in savings . In fact they even have different units, as expected befitting their different parts of speech. Savings is a stock, an accumulated surplus of wealth. Saving is a rate, a flow, of exce...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

raven15 wrote: Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt? IMO the main purpose of bonds in a portfolio is stabilization of volatility from the equity side. Vanguard's Long Term Treasury Bond Fund is down 6.92% YTD. ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jRj9 If you had bought 2yr treasuries and sold 10yr treasuries (in duration-weighted proportion), you'd have done very well from 2007-2009. When would you have bought the ten year treasuries you are selling? I'm talking about relative value. If you had owned 10y...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 8092

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

Paying off student debt absolutely counts as saving. A student loan can be modeled as a negative bond; of course, one could direct their savings there or elsewhere. Net worth increases just the same (likely better with high interest rate loans). Significant judicial error is already present here. P...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt? Relative to short/intermediate term government debt? Yes. Evidence? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jRj9 If you had bought 2yr treasuries and sold 10yr treasuries (in ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 8092

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

$900 rent (2 bedroom apartment) Notable exceptions: > We do have a car, but we walk to work and could walk, bike or take public transit to get groceries, so I've excluded car maintenance, insurance and replacement from this. > I haven't accounted for state income tax, so I'm effectively assuming th...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 8092

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

how do you find a place with public transport without having good tax base and/or HCOL? They don't build shiny new subway system in Dumbfolk, MT do they? No good public transportation in LCOL areas I know of. But it is easier to find a town with a walkable core than it is in the infinite sprawl of ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

GodelianKnot wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 8:51 am
raven15 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 8:49 pm
Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt?
Relative to short/intermediate term government debt? Yes.
Evidence?
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 8092

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

$900 rent (2 bedroom apartment) Notable exceptions: > We do have a car, but we walk to work and could walk, bike or take public transit to get groceries, so I've excluded car maintenance, insurance and replacement from this. > I haven't accounted for state income tax, so I'm effectively assuming th...
by raven15
Tue May 15, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4303

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

Good idea investing now in long term funds? No. With a yield curve that is almost flat the risk/reward tradeoff is not favorable for increasing bond duration at present IMO. Historically speaking we're still in a very low rate environment. The point to increase duration risk is not when short term ...
by raven15
Tue May 15, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1647

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

dkturner wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 12:54 pm
I couldn’t pull the trigger and rebalance into equities in late 2018 or early 2019 either.
I see your point. I haven't been able to do that myself.


First!
by raven15
Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 9683

Re: I’m looking for a word...

A thousand people trying to corner water in a swimming pool. If they move where the water is, they displace it and the water moves somewhere else. If too many people get in they'll push all the water right out of the pool.
by raven15
Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Minimum % for a "tilt" to matter in portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1330

Re: Minimum % for a "tilt" to matter in portfolio

The correlation and volatility of the proposed tilt matter. Tilting VTI 10% towards VBR may only have a modest impact. However, put that same 10% into a gold miner equity fund instead and it will look like an extreme, scary, and questionable tilt. Gold mine stocks have low correlation to the broader...
by raven15
Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retiree Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 895

Re: Early Retiree Portfolio

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/ This is a good resource for the basic outline. You'll want about 45% US stocks, 30% international stocks, and 25% bonds for an optimal early retiree static portfolio assuming past history...
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 18412

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Since we are all making up our own definitions of cash I 'll add mine. Cash is risk free in nominal terms and I can spend it in Walmart within the hour. Everything else is investments. Love it, nice and simple. So if I can get "it" out of an ATM machine that counts as cash too? And I count my T-Bil...
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio vs. Schwab Target Fund
Replies: 71
Views: 6865

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio vs. Schwab Target Fund

I also found the following issue at https://thefinancebuff.com/schwab-intelligent-portfolios-the-true-cost-of-a-cash-drag.html#comments - in the comments section. (Only 18 comments): "Actually, it is a two-time cost: at buy AND sell time. Depending on your holding horizon, it could be significant. ...
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 18412

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Since we are all making up our own definitions of cash I 'll add mine. Cash is risk free in nominal terms and I can spend it in Walmart within the hour. Everything else is investments.
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 20850

Re: Why International again?

here's a good reason: it's called the "randomness of global equity returns" page 40 of the DFA matrix book 2017: https://www.ifa.com/pdf/matrix%20book%202017.pdf https://s13.postimg.org/75j8swgjb/Capture2.jpg what do you see? That's right. The good 'ol USA was only the top dog once since 1997 (in 2...
by raven15
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 20850

Re: Why International again?

Speaking for myself, I just typed all the funds I invest in into Morningstar and was surprised that over my time frame the top three have been international funds, with Vanguard midcap coming in 4th. If I had been invested only in USA I would have less money.
by raven15
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads.org" by Kristine Hayes"
Replies: 60
Views: 9004

Re: "Bogleheads.org" by Kristine Hayes"

Interesting article. But if I had to type real estate investment trust, you would literally have to pay me by the hour to post here.
by raven15
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2478

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

I accidentally started a knock down drag out thread about this after forgetting how to use morningstar. It ended up being a better discussion than it should have. Anyhow, the conclusion was that SCHR is the intermediate treasury bond champion. Are you referring to this thread ? I don't see the cons...
by raven15
Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2478

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

I accidentally started a knock down drag out thread about this after forgetting how to use morningstar. It ended up being a better discussion than it should have.

Anyhow, the conclusion was that SCHR is the intermediate treasury bond champion.
by raven15
Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do American Funds hold so much cash?
Replies: 8
Views: 1277

Re: Why do American Funds hold so much cash?

They need a lot of liquidity to fund the departures of investors leaving for Vanguard once they realize American Funds is like a negative pressure pipe in atmospheric pressure.
by raven15
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog
Replies: 31
Views: 5080

Re: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog

Just passing along this quote believed to be from Ralph Wagoner, as recalled by Bill Bernstein: "He likens the market to an excitable dog on a very long leash in New York City, darting randomly in every direction. The dog's owner is walking from Columbus Circle, through Central Park, to the Metropo...
by raven15
Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1577

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

Don't to anything drastic. I thought that maybe you could set your bond percentage equal to CAPE during an annual or less often rebalance. So right now bonds would be at 35%. That doesn't take into account bond yields though. Another might be to weight stocks and bonds according to epected returns: ...
by raven15
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 876

Re: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?

Yeah, sure, in theory. 50% VBR, 20% VWO, 20% SCHC, 10% EDV. The real struggle is psychological when the allocation occasionally crashes and burns!
by raven15
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is buying 20 and 30 year bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 1651

Re: Who is buying 20 and 30 year bonds?

I am. Without coupons distorting the idea. About 5% of my overall invested amount (8% of retirement accounts). Reason: as an accumulator with a long horizon making regular purchases, I have advantages others don't. First, just by making regular monthly purchases I get around a 2% rate of return adva...
by raven15
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some examples of uncompensated risks in international investing?
Replies: 7
Views: 742

Re: What are some examples of uncompensated risks in international investing?

The only two I think of are currency risk and geopolitical risk. Currency risk is actually risk and is not proportionally rewarded. If international investments have the same return but greater volatility along the way, that is uncompensated risk and will actually result in a lower safe withdrawal r...
by raven15
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings Bond Wizard to be eliminated 5/18
Replies: 68
Views: 11614

Re: Savings Bond Wizard to be eliminated 5/18

Thanks for the heads up. I entered my 19 legacy savings bonds into the calculator, and saved it for future use with Firefox. I wish I could have uploaded a CSV file, hopefully that will be available for people who have hundreds. Now back to my regularly scheduled activity of watching paint dry.
by raven15
Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond Index avoiding Very Long Bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1750

Re: Vanguard Total Bond Index avoiding Very Long Bonds?

The author apparently doesn't quite grasp how an index fund works. In addition to being unaware the the treasury doesn't issue bonds longer than 30 years and never has. Also (gender neutral pronoun which for some reason hasn't been invented yet) apparently is not able to use the internet to look at ...
by raven15
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 56
Views: 6112

Re: The overselling of international diversification

My understanding is that US/Int have lowest correlation over periods of around 2-5 years. Usually people never examine periods longer than 1 year though. Especially not those cited in this thread.
by raven15
Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 4027

Re: Gold ETF

Check out the Permanent Portfolio book and forum for discussion. The book lists several methods to invest in gold with discussion of each. ETF's are the better than nothing but not ideal solution. I agree with above that CEF may be the best choice. After that is physical ownership at a hidden locati...
by raven15
Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shooting for the moon as a young investor
Replies: 19
Views: 2458

Re: Shooting for the moon as a young investor

I think this could be acceptable, but it would need to have a large positive expected average return. For example, lotteries or gambling have a negative expected return. Bernstein suggests possibly having 60% small cap value stocks, 20% foreign emerging markets stocks, 20% small cap foreign develope...
by raven15
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation Hedge: I Can't Convince Myself to Do It
Replies: 8
Views: 1082

Re: Deflation Hedge: I Can't Convince Myself to Do It

Any sort of bonds or cash are a deflation hedge, though the less credit risk the better. If you only invest in stocks then yes you are vulnerable to deflation, and perhaps keeping a small percentage in long term government bonds is something you should consider (I do). If you have 20% or more in bon...
by raven15
Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni
Replies: 30
Views: 3318

Re: High yield muni

That being said, VWAHX is far from being risky as many previous posters incorrectly implied. The OP's reference above was to an American Century actively-managed fund (see "Believe," above). It is not a winner in many ways, imo. The OP's suggested allocation was being 100% in a high-yield muni fund...
by raven15
Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets (VEMAX) back to even
Replies: 4
Views: 1356

Re: Emerging Markets (VEMAX) back to even

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:45 pm
Did it throw off any dividends in that period?
It is back to even with dividends reinvested. If you account for inflation, or exclude dividends, or both, it is still deep below sea level.
by raven15
Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni
Replies: 30
Views: 3318

Re: High yield muni

That being said, VWAHX is far from being risky as many previous posters incorrectly implied. The OP's reference above was to an American Century actively-managed fund (see "Believe," above). It is not a winner in many ways, imo. The OP's suggested allocation was being 100% in a high-yield muni fund...
by raven15
Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni
Replies: 30
Views: 3318

Re: High yield muni

Basically the period you backtested was unusually good for bonds, while stocks went through rough times, especially international stocks over the past ten years. It will be hard for VWAHX to continue that run for much longer given the current low rates. That being said, VWAHX is far from being risky...
by raven15
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 96
Views: 6922

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I think this is the time to make the point made by Jared Diamond in Collapse * (a book which I recommend everyone who has future generations such as their own children, nieces & nephews, in mind, to read and think about) https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Succeed-Revised/dp/0143117009...
by raven15
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities
Replies: 79
Views: 8846

Re: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities

I'd say that is very reasonable. First, a 4% withdrawal rate from a 100% stock portfolio has succeeded 95% of the time in US history and since it didn't fail in 2008 it probably won't now. Second, Social Security counts as a bond. If it is 50% of his income, you could say he is 50% bonds. Third, he ...
by raven15
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1443
Views: 599952

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

Summary: Econ grad student applies Mortgage Your Retirement theory at the top of the last bull market, starting around 2x leverage, loses $210K of borrowed money, and is forced is to sell what's left of his portfolio at S&P 821 in November 2008. The complete wipeout results in a reflective period w...
by raven15
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1384

Re: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

Invest 20% to 50% of stocks in international indices, because historical currency fluctuations have usually placed the minimum volatility point somewhere within that range? As in yes, volatility with 20-50% of stocks denominated in different currencies has historically been less than with 100% of st...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 43004

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

On which page does this chart appear. I'd like to read the pursuing discussion....the whole thing is too tedious. Mortality as represented here can indeed be misleading. The chart begins at age 40. So, this is the probabilistic mortality path for a 40 year old and only applies to those retiring at ...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 43004

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Great chart. It clearly shows something most of us don't look at...the chance of death. We worry about having enough money to age 95. And I get it the goal needs to be to have a sustainable lifestyle/withdrawal rate to last as long as we do. But this sort of makes you realize that the odds are that...
by raven15
Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 43004

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/maizeman/dead_broke/master/DAB_graphs/Example_Output.png Courtesy of maizeman on the Mr. Money Mustache forum. It combines historical stock data and social security actuarial data. It puts the odds of the 4% rule failing in the proper perspective. Blue is having an...
by raven15
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optum HSA
Replies: 11
Views: 1601

Re: Optum HSA

Great, thanks for sharing! At first I really regretted not having Vanguard funds, but now I am not so sure. Expense ratio is the only guarantee, but so far the available S&P400 NTIAX and even more so S&P600 DISSX have convincingly outperformed Vanguard small cap despite the expense ratio disadvantag...
by raven15
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 56
Views: 7133

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

This is excellent news, thanks for posting. I use the Intermediate-Term Government bond as my sole bond holding (I used to use the IT Corporate bond Index fund too, but dropped for tax cost reasons). I just looked at the Agency bond weighting in the fund recently and was pleased it was so low, espe...