Search found 265 matches

by raven15
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return
Replies: 15
Views: 872

Re: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return

There is lots of "blah blah blah" about currency volatility, but in theory and in practice the result of currency volatility has been that a range of 20%-50% of stocks in unhedged international stock investments has generally been the point of minimum volatility. Note that the center of th...
by raven15
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 263
Views: 14171

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

International stocks, IMO, have at least 3 clear disadvantages relative to US stocks, even if the gross expected returns were about the same: 1) Higher ERs for funds (or more investment difficulty for direct investment). Spread may be less now than it once was, but there is still a difference. 2) T...
by raven15
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields
Replies: 42
Views: 3103

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields

Nice article by Larry, and it makes a point that I've been arguing on this board for quite a while: that for about a decade now, yields on high grade munis have been comparable (and often higher) than Treasuries of equal maturity. So why does the conventional dogma about bonds in tax-advantaged sti...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 7808

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Funnily, anyone who spends a small amount of time backtesting can come to the same conclusion as this paper pretty easily. I reached this conclusion (that REIT's are 95% not special) about six months after I learned that a mutual fund was a thing. Not coincidentally, I don't explicitly invest in REI...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6103

Re: The Quest for Perfection

In all respect to those suggesting I backtest your tie, that's amusing, but I spent a lot of time constructing this proposal and intended it as a starting point for serious discussion. It was aimed at me, not you. Other than the complexity and the large number of small allocations, are there any gl...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6103

Re: The Quest for Perfection

No, I think I understood it. It is the perfect portfolio for people who backtest using Portfolio Charts. Not for other people. Then it is I who don't understand. Different people can have different financial needs and targets. Are you saying that portfolio is the best for all of them, as long as th...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6103

Re: The Quest for Perfection

This is the perfect portfolio: ... "perfect" for whom ? For anyone who backtests using Portfolio Charts. Not sure you understood my question. This is the perfect tie, btw. http://www.realmenrealstyle.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/NEcktie-Darkknot-Tie-400.jpg No, I think I understood it. ...
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6103

Re: The Quest for Perfection

aegis965 wrote:
raven15 wrote:Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect.

Here you go.

http://faculty.london.edu/avmiguel/DeMi ... al-RFS.pdf
Here it is.
by raven15
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6103

Re: The Quest for Perfection

Thesaints wrote:
raven15 wrote:This is the perfect portfolio:
...


"perfect" for whom ?

For anyone who backtests using Portfolio Charts.
by raven15
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6103

Re: The Quest for Perfection

aegis965 wrote:
raven15 wrote:Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect.

Here you go.

Probably a nice paper, but unreadable. I think I saw a summary or discussion somewhere a year or two ago though.
by raven15
Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6103

Re: The Quest for Perfection

This is the perfect portfolio: 50% US small cap value 15% developed markets small cap 15% emerging markets 10% long term treasuries 10% gold bullion Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect. Actually the best framework I have seen for a more complex portfolio is t...
by raven15
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense Ratios, how high is too high
Replies: 72
Views: 4012

Re: Expense Ratios, how high is too high

If you can't live without emerging markets small cap, 0.65% is the highest.

Otherwise you can fulfill your wildest investing dreams with funds of expense ratio 0.40% and less.

If you don't have wild investing dreams you can get all you need for 0.15% or less.
by raven15
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTTSX (TR 2060) vs VLXVX (TR 2065)
Replies: 5
Views: 371

Re: VTTSX (TR 2060) vs VLXVX (TR 2065)

Vanguard just released VLXVX (target retirement 2065). At a price of $20 im rather intrigued to swap it in place of my TR 2060. I feel all these target retirement fund start at $20, go up $10-15 then linger (am i wrong here)? Thoughts on doing so? TR 2065 still has a 90/10 stock/bond split. I would...
by raven15
Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Value Tilting
Replies: 29
Views: 1863

Re: International Value Tilting

FNDF Schwab Fundamental International Large Company Index ETF 0.25% ER FNDC Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index ETF 0.39% ER FNDE Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Large Company Index ETF 0.39% ER DGS WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund ETF 0.63% ER Do you use thos...
by raven15
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2446

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

AlohaJoe wrote:Some beliefs that I used to have...
That credit risk isn't rewarded, so one should only invest in Treasuries.

What changed your mind on this one?
by raven15
Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 89
Views: 11494

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

If room for holding value funds is tight and you want deep exposure in one fund, it makes sense to hold RZV (Guggenheim S&P 600 Pure Value) at 0.35% expenses. This ETF has very deep value exposure, and is mostly micro-caps. It is also suitable for a taxable account because of its extremely low ...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 1930

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

Note that the existence of #5 on the list is a reason not to have all one's bonds in retirement accounts--if all you have in taxable is stocks, you may end up realizing a lot of capital gains. That was what I decided too. I don't need bonds for the long run, hence tax sheltered accounts have only s...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF vs Mutual Fund (for an Index Fund)
Replies: 20
Views: 1452

Re: ETF vs Mutual Fund (for an Index Fund)

I will be transferring an account to either Fidelity or Vanguard and place it in to a S&P 500 index fund. What it the difference between a mutual S&P 500 index fund and an ETF S&P 500 index fund? What are the advantage/cons of each? Thanks in advance. If use use Fidelity and it is taxab...
by raven15
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 1930

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

Mine is. Or actually, I don't officially have an emergency fund. I have about three months of expenses in checking strictly for convenience. Then there is the taxable account, with a seperate and slightly more conservative allocation than tax sheltered. The bond funds there are evenly split between ...
by raven15
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 6606

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Currency diversification is not a benefit for the individual investor who has most outlays in a single currency. If I recall, US consumers source 20-40% of their purchases from abroad. It may not be a coincidence that 30-40% of stocks in international is usually shown to minimize currency risk. You...
by raven15
Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 6606

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Thesaints wrote:Currency diversification is not a benefit for the individual investor who has most outlays in a single currency.

If I recall, US consumers source 20-40% of their purchases from abroad. It may not be a coincidence that 30-40% of stocks in international is usually shown to minimize currency risk.
by raven15
Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 27, Single, 25k Income with 100k Cash - Lost
Replies: 29
Views: 2800

Re: 27, Single, 25k Income with 100k Cash - Lost

I'm 27 years old. Self employed with estimated income around 25k this year and no debt. I have 100k in cash and I've spent the last couple months trying to figure this stuff out. My goal is to move the 100k into Roth accounts over the next 3 years while my income is low. Everything is going into ta...
by raven15
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 6044

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

Well Bogle makes the point that if the US underperformed for a long time, the rest of the world would be hurt as well. I was really blown away by his discipline in this chapter. Especially because the entire investing community disagrees with him! He has no way of knowing this, and I don't think it...
by raven15
Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4519

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Is there any fundamental reasons to only own the stocks whose names start with the letters A through L? If it's a global market and all companies (at least big ones) get revenue from all over the world, then the decision to exclude them really falls into the A-L category. That said, is there any ma...
by raven15
Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 6044

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

While I truly understand broad diversification and not aiming to predict the future, I do get worried about investing in "unknown" markets seeking higher returns. I may just be happy enough with what the US gives me. Thoughts? I added international stocks after reading Bernstein's "D...
by raven15
Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a habit of checking the market all day?
Replies: 38
Views: 2558

Re: Anyone have a habit of checking the market all day?

I do this at work. I type about a dozen tickers in representing my investments or random ones I thought about. It is actually an internet addiction rather than an investing addiction, otherwise I would type in weather or news or something equally pointless and noisy. I use leechblock to keep away th...
by raven15
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

VGIT/VSIGX Vanguard Intermediate Government: This fund includes agency debt, which increases yield a tiny amount, about 0.1% over SCHR. In theory there may be credit risk to agency debt, but it has not shown up and standard deviation has been identical to SCHR. SCHR Schwab Intermediate treasury: Al...
by raven15
Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 59
Views: 4289

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

Simply stated, my question is when someone has such a long investment horizon, why bonds at all? I understand bonds typically temper your losses when the market crashes, but they also temper your gains when the equity market is bullish. Furthermore, though they temper losses during down times, that...
by raven15
Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

...The active fund [VFITX] is benchmark against BloomBarc US 5-10 Yr Treasury Index . I am in the process of considering breaking up the Vg intermediate Term Index into its components and didn't realize how similar the two Treasury/Government funds have been in the past. Thanks guys. I don't think ...
by raven15
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I was being facetious. I can think of no good reason for active management for this fund, and yes the idea that some Treasuries will outperform is ridiculous. I can think of a score. Most bond indexes only cover 10% of the most actively bonds, if you are willing to take a little liquidity risk you ...
by raven15
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Anyone can do the research in just a few minutes on portfolio visualizer, but what I found was that I prefer these funds in approximately this order based on history since 2010 ish (many are relatively new): VGIT/VSIGX Vanguard Intermediate Government: This fund includes agency debt, which increases...
by raven15
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

On 12/22 VFITX had a capital gain distribution of about 1%. Capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than interest. The cap gains is probably a result of roll yield which is usually thought of as a good thing. The funny thing is, this started as an investigation of "roll yield." I was thin...
by raven15
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Wow, price charts are super annoying. I thought simply adding VFITX would make it total return. I wish they would default to total return, or at least have big red text telling what it is and having a large and obvious button to toggle between. I figured someone would have said something by now, I s...
by raven15
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to put "leftover" money in an ETF portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1373

Re: Where to put "leftover" money in an ETF portfolio

Use limit orders below the current market price to avoid this. Sometimes it doesn't work, but when it does your head feels really big.
by raven15
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2874

Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

If you ever discover something amazing, the most likely explanation is you made a mistake. I was comparing intermediate term treasury funds just now (exciting, I know) and what I found surprised me. As we know, Vanguard has an intermediate term treasury bond mutual fund, which has a low expe...
by raven15
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab 3-fund vs Target Date vs Intelligent Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 3424

Re: Schwab 3-fund vs Target Date vs Intelligent Portfolio

In taxable accounts I'd definitely go with Schwab or other company ETFs with free trades. I signed up for a mutual fund about nine months ago and was not happy to receive a bill for short term and long term capital gains taxes shortly after, since I hadn't even sold anything. Now I am waiting for a ...
by raven15
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formulas for International Stock Allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 937

Re: Formulas for International Stock Allocation

None of them suggest that volatility is minimized at 0% international. It seems to me you have many complex formulas which do not produce foreseeably useful results. For me, the point of using a defined formula for decreasing the International stock allocation over time isn't to minimize volatility...
by raven15
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 1987

Re: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?

Perhaps both? A ratio of 2:1 or 3:1 bonds:gold seems about right. Of course there is the issue that while theoretical ownership of gold might be nice, in practice there are extra costs and extra risks at every turn. If one is determined to invest in gold, I recommend using a mutual fund such as Fide...
by raven15
Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 2675

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

I was using 5%. Then I noticed my IRR over my (short) investing career has been over 10%, and I think this has not been an unusually good period for my allocation, so recently I did a couple at 10%. For retirement I will probably project whatever return gives a perpetually safe 3.3% withdrawal rate.
by raven15
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formulas for International Stock Allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 937

Re: Formulas for International Stock Allocation

My understanding from Swensen is that currency risk reduces portfolio-level volatility in allocations up to about 25% of total portfolio, above which volatility starts to rise again. Vanguard wrote a paper showing 30%-40% of stock allocated to international has minimized volatility. Bogleheads poste...
by raven15
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working
Replies: 26
Views: 3342

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

Friends, it is pretty easy to fix this. Add "download." in front of the "finance." in your old formula and it will work again. The evaluate formula tool tells you this.
by raven15
Fri May 19, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 9988

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Hi all. When Taylor Larimore (much respect) was asked "why not market weights?" by someone trying to pick their US vs International allocation, Taylor replied with this list of concerns: Several reasons: * Higher costs * Approximately half the sales of our 500 largest companies are to for...
by raven15
Wed May 10, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 19335

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

You are saving money to retire in your 60's? Ouch. I'm 33 and I spent the last 3 years saving to retire in my 40's. Ideally 40, but I doubt the markets like me that much.
by raven15
Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?
Replies: 50
Views: 3225

Re: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?

I thought reallocating would be as simple as "exchanging" some equity funds/buying bond funds later as I age ... I intend on running a 2 horse race of 100% equity/TOTAL US+TOTAL INT'L ADMIRAL for the next 5+ years and then "exchanging" inside my Roth later in life ... is this wa...
by raven15
Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen's Bond Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 1510

Re: David Swensen's Bond Portfolio

I read on this forum that in practice Swensen uses a total treasury index, believing that the bond market is very hard to get ahead in and then by only a small amount, which makes it not worth the effort. The more I think about this the more it makes sense. The only fund that seems to do this is the...
by raven15
Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 6952

Re: an in depth look at gold

There will be increased mining for battery metals. Is there a lot of gold as a by product? edit: In other words, a way to get exposure to gold price while also investing in a productive mining company. As far as I know gold is only a by product of mining chemically similar minerals such as silver a...
by raven15
Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International
Replies: 47
Views: 3898

Re: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International

Seeing how over the last decade small cap has been doing well, why have they not changed their allocation in their fund for better returns? That's not how it works, if it doesn't follow the "fundamental index" method it will be just another performance chasing fund :greedy. In general lar...
by raven15
Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND Jumps 0.5% on Fed Announcement
Replies: 43
Views: 4643

Re: BND Jumps 0.5% on Fed Announcement

I timed the bond market perfectly by buying on Monday. Today I got $4.05 from my spectacular ability. Bond market timing: not the greatest mathematical invention of all time :!:
by raven15
Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International
Replies: 47
Views: 3898

Re: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International

Anyone else using solely international small-caps (e.g. VSS, VFSVX) for the international portion of their equities? When I joined this site recently, I was dead-set on 100% VTSAX US Total Stock Market, but I've since decided to add some international. I like how the small-caps are a little less co...
by raven15
Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vang. High Yield Tax Exempt Fund Admiral Shares
Replies: 16
Views: 1384

Re: Vang. High Yield Tax Exempt Fund Admiral Shares

That is normal behavior. Even if you had bought US treasury bonds they would have done the same thing. Eventually yields will stabilize or reverse and you will be making money again, but it will be even more money because of the new higher yield. Another point is that you should get in a mental habi...

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