Search found 828 matches

by randomizer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing the market
Replies: 4
Views: 382

Re: Timing the market

Time in the market beats timing the market. Invest it all now and forget about it.

Or alternatively, obsess over it and check the market multiple times per day, then panic and sell at a loss when things hit the fan. It will be a valuable lesson to you.
by randomizer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 20
Views: 1400

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

To echo the familiar Star Wars sentiment, "I've got a bad feeling about this".
by randomizer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Almost a pathological fear of debt, to my detriment?
Replies: 79
Views: 4223

Re: Almost a pathological fear of debt, to my detriment?

I feel uncomfortable with debt but I will myself to live with it because I have a less than 2% mortgage. It's the rational thing to do.
by randomizer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to figure out the assest allocation that you can sleep well with
Replies: 19
Views: 1440

Re: how to figure out the assest allocation that you can sleep well with

Consider need, ability and willingness to take risk. More data needed to answer on these three fronts.
by randomizer
Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 38
Views: 5726

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

It's thoroughly discussed and easily found only if you take action to seek it out (like Bogleheads do just by looking at this site for more than 15 minutes). I don't really see a reason for most to be educated on the SWR because most have less than 12x earnings at retirement. Most people would tell...
by randomizer
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4085

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

Investing in the stock market is plenty risky enough. Easy to lose sight of that in a bull market that's soon enough going to approach its 10-year anniversary.
by randomizer
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2543

Re: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist

As long as you kept hold of your assets through all these name changes, merges and closures...
by randomizer
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing 150K in the current market
Replies: 4
Views: 767

Re: Investing 150K in the current market

Lump sum it all in immediately. You have a clear asset allocation. Just stick to it. Dollar-cost averaging can be a useful psychological crutch if you feel you need it, but everything else is just market timing, which is a fool's game.
by randomizer
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move to Tax-Exempt Bond in 32% Tax Bracket? What Proportion?
Replies: 20
Views: 1263

Re: Move to Tax-Exempt Bond in 32% Tax Bracket? What Proportion?

In this situation in the past I went to 50% short-term tax exempt, 50% state-specific muni (because I had one in my state).
by randomizer
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: International Move - recommendations as for company or pitfalls ?
Replies: 4
Views: 222

Re: International Move - recommendations as for company or pitfalls ?

Never done it myself but I've heard it costs $$$, and you can expect big delays, a bunch of additional charges and import duties and tariffs, and stuff will get broken along the way.
by randomizer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to see YTD% at Vanguard
Replies: 22
Views: 1880

Re: How to see YTD% at Vanguard

Just try not to check it 10 times a day.
by randomizer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual funds to ETFs.....A question!
Replies: 5
Views: 334

Re: Mutual funds to ETFs.....A question!

What's the motivation to switch to an ETF?

(I did this recently too, even though I mostly prefer mutual funds, because I wanted to move some of my holdings to a different broker).
by randomizer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?
Replies: 53
Views: 2730

Re: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?

Just under 5%, HCOL. Taxes are a much bigger expense for me than rent.
by randomizer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?
Replies: 145
Views: 11655

Re: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?

Google Docs is still pretty good.
by randomizer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K
Replies: 31
Views: 1561

Re: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K

I think the recent tax change strengthens the argument for not using a Roth 401k. People continuously say tax rates are going up in the future so use the Roth 401k. Guess what, they just went down. I'd suspect maybe reversion to the mean, then (ie. they'll go up). But yeah, nobody can predict the f...
by randomizer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with a 25 million windfall?
Replies: 47
Views: 2698

Re: What would you do with a 25 million windfall?

Stick to my IPS, start a small business, and ramp up my charitable giving.
by randomizer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Emergency Fund" Strategy
Replies: 39
Views: 3807

Re: "Emergency Fund" Strategy

I try not to sweat it too much with my emergency fund and keep it simple because it is a relatively small portion of my liquid net worth (about 10%, but it fluctuates). I expect the % to drop within a year or two anyway, probably down to about 5% (moving to a lower cost of living area, so need less ...
by randomizer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell bonds, pre-pay mortgage instead?
Replies: 10
Views: 756

Re: Sell bonds, pre-pay mortgage instead?

Given the rates, I probably wouldn't pay it off, unless it was weighing on me psychologically. Because the mortgage is like a negative bond, having it effectively reduces your bond allocation. But if you pay it off (with bonds), that will reduce your bond allocation too. In terms of risk profile, yo...
by randomizer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 8389

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

I think people are mad to discuss their net worth, even in general terms, on a public forum. Even hidden behind "anonymous" identities (our writing style is as individual as a fingerprint, there are algorithms out there which are getting better and better at matching that-- and that's just an obvio...
by randomizer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you eventually get accustomed to your higher balances?
Replies: 47
Views: 6736

Re: Do you eventually get accustomed to your higher balances?

They grow slowly enough (even in a 20% bull market year) that there is plenty of time to get used to the new balances. Unless you never look at them, that is. Then you might be in for a bit of a surprise.
by randomizer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in Taxable: State-Specific Muni Fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 621

Re: Bonds in Taxable: State-Specific Muni Fund?

50% state-specific muni fund (usually intermediate term), and 50% federal tax-exempt fund (probably a fairly short duration one).
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 276
Views: 22268

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Of course, I don't think I would have stuck with 4% during the dot-com crash or the global financial crisis, and I expect many adjusted their plans (but hopefully didn't panic). This 8 year bull market sure has helped though, hasn't it?
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Thank You Bogleheads!
Replies: 9
Views: 1112

Re: Thank You Bogleheads!

Success stories like yours make all of our efforts over the past 20 years seem worthwhile. It's heady stuff to know that you had a positive impact on someone's life. And I hope you realize the value of the many small successes too. For everybody that shares a life-changing story of how posters on t...
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The "Forever Home" Myth: Should I Plan on Buying 2 Homes?
Replies: 36
Views: 3263

Re: The "Forever Home" Myth: Should I Plan on Buying 2 Homes?

Don't know if it's a myth, but I am planning on owning exactly one home. The transaction costs, and the unpleasantness of dealing with lawyers, real estate agents, banks etc are more than enough to dissuade me from wanting a series of homes that is "just right" for each phase of my life; I just want...
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 9281

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I just shifted my allocation from 60% US 40% Ex-US to 50:50. Not because of valuations but because I realized that the home-country bias, even though it had been very lucrative, wasn’t something I could rationally defend. World market cap weighting, on the other hand, seems something much more stra...
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 9281

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I just shifted my allocation from 60% US 40% Ex-US to 50:50. Not because of valuations but because I realized that the home-country bias, even though it had been very lucrative, wasn’t something I could rationally defend. World market cap weighting, on the other hand, seems something much more stra...
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Smallest % worth Allocating in your Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 1970

Re: Smallest % worth Allocating in your Portfolio

I don’t slice or dice or tilt. That means my smallest allocation is to emerging markets: 14% of world equity markets by capitalization, and 10.5% of my portfolio (because my overall AA is 75:25).
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is "winning the game" exactly?
Replies: 9
Views: 1313

Re: What is "winning the game" exactly?

For me truly winning would mean having 40x expenses but I don't expect to ever get that far and so will shoot for a weaker definition of getting as close to 25x as I can. (May require me to work indefinitely? Or not. All depends on the unforeseeable.)
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 9281

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I just shifted my allocation from 60% US 40% Ex-US to 50:50. Not because of valuations but because I realized that the home-country bias, even though it had been very lucrative, wasn’t something I could rationally defend. World market cap weighting, on the other hand, seems something much more strai...
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you ever win the game?
Replies: 50
Views: 5126

Re: Can you ever win the game?

It is too late for me but I am sure as hell gonna try anyway.
by randomizer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 8389

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

I totally understand why people want to make these posts but at the same time I could happily live without them. The fact that the signal-to-noise ratio is so high here makes it truly outstanding and uniquely useful compared to other sites. If you want motivational exchange of milestones, just go po...
by randomizer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging
Replies: 71
Views: 5253

Re: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging

Is the author talking about value averaging? I can't tell from the excerpt.
by randomizer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?
Replies: 173
Views: 14731

Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

I like the negative bond model. When I got a mortgage, this showed that I was at 107% stocks (ie. leveraged) despite my nominal 25% allocation to bonds. I think this is a useful heuristic that shows the actual level of risk that I was exposed to (and fortunately, was comfortable with). I still keep ...
by randomizer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]
Replies: 8
Views: 567

Re: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]

Do the same risks apply to Ireland-domiciled funds? Funds can have different domiciles than where they are traded Domicile - a UK domiciled fund might be at risk Ireland is not leaving the EU, so I can't see why an Irish domiciled fund would be at risk. However they might withdraw their listing on ...
by randomizer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17548

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

Pretty far from winning the game here. I would love to be in a place where I could take less risk. I am pretty much resigned to walking the fine line at 75:25 forever.
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good choice for money in brokerage account needed within 6 to 9 months?
Replies: 9
Views: 701

Re: Good choice for money in brokerage account needed within 6 to 9 months?

Randomizer, I think you're making contradictory statements. You'd like something secure but you wouldn't mind losing 1-2%--in a 6-month investment. Losing 2% in a "secure" investment within 6 months is not a reasonable option. If you want a 6-month T-bill which you can buy through your brokerage ac...
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good choice for money in brokerage account needed within 6 to 9 months?
Replies: 9
Views: 701

Re: Good choice for money in brokerage account needed within 6 to 9 months?

drk wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:27 pm
Which brokerage?
Interactive Brokers. I see from here that they charge 2 bps (0.02%) for t-bills, with a minimum of $5 per trade (the minimum would be a bit of a killer for small trades, I would think).
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5121

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

It's not about robos. Even without them, investing is too easy and everybody wants in, spurred on by 8 or 9 years of basically uninterrupted growth. Ditto for the cryptocurrency craze. Sooner or later the music is gonna stop. I'm ready to rebalance and stick to my plan when it does. Do you want to ...
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good choice for money in brokerage account needed within 6 to 9 months?
Replies: 9
Views: 701

Good choice for money in brokerage account needed within 6 to 9 months?

CDs and online savings accounts are not an option for reasons that probably aren't relevant right now. I have about $55,000 destined for a brokerage account and want to park it there for 6-9 months. I want something pretty safe because I know I'll be spending this money soon. I could take a small lo...
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intel might take a hit
Replies: 38
Views: 3900

Re: Intel might take a hit

They will bound back selling new CPUs over the next few years that don't have these vulnerabilities (but they will have other ones).
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 2896

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

This thread is illuminating. Thank you!
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shall I buy a one B/B apt in Bay Area? Help needed, please.
Replies: 18
Views: 1540

Re: Shall I buy a one B/B apt in Bay Area? Help needed, please.

I'd never buy in the Bay Area, but there are plenty of people who do.
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now not a good time to start investing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2714

Re: Is now not a good time to start investing?

It is always a good time to start investing.
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]
Replies: 8
Views: 567

Re: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]

Do the same risks apply to Ireland-domiciled funds?
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5121

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

It's not about robos. Even without them, investing is too easy and everybody wants in, spurred on by 8 or 9 years of basically uninterrupted growth. Ditto for the cryptocurrency craze. Sooner or later the music is gonna stop. I'm ready to rebalance and stick to my plan when it does.
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balance to bond and/or cash?
Replies: 14
Views: 893

Re: Re-balance to bond and/or cash?

Just stick to your plan. Nobody knows anything about the future.
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 290
Views: 25695

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

The absence of volatility is what bothers me. The sense that sooner or later the other shoe is going to drop. Also, that there is usual nothing to do. I barely ever need to rebalance, and I certainly don't need to tax-loss harvest.
by randomizer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using call options to hedge currency risk
Replies: 10
Views: 500

Re: Using call options to hedge currency risk

... I was thinking of keeping the money in the market here, and only moving it at the end of the year. Good point though that it makes little difference whether I occur a tax liability in January or in December. Given your plans, you might want to kneel down and pray for a well-calibrated market cr...