Search found 4538 matches

by randomguy
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8166

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

Considering that it's never failed, I don't see how it could be calling it "anything close to a sure thing" would be unwarranted. If you aren't using backtested data, then how will you determine how much to withdraw in retirement? Even a flexible withdrawal rate has to start somewhere. As an aside,...
by randomguy
Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Structuring payoff offer for house in foreclosure, above water
Replies: 27
Views: 2776

Re: Structuring payoff offer for house in foreclosure, above water

Foreclosure is not worth it to the family: the family knows that if the house is lost, the "owner" will end up in some other relative's basement. Family situations suck. The family has just decided to pay it all off, with or without cooperation, effectively folding it into a new note whic...
by randomguy
Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you do when you run the numbers and don't like the answer that you get?
Replies: 29
Views: 3472

Re: What do you do when you run the numbers and don't like the answer that you get?

I guess the question I'm asking here is how people cope with the uncertainty over a 20 year time scale, where the numbers are doubtful, and the number of unknowns (even known unknowns) is so large. As other people have pointed out, it seems unlikely you have any problems. Just stayed employed enoug...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 11226

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

1) I have great respect for Bezos, but is anyone clear on why this will succeed when Webvan failed? . It is 2017 not 1997. It is a vastly different world. It could be that Webvan was just an idea ahead of its time and with better execution it could be a huge sucess. Amazon did hire a bunch of the w...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 11226

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

Who actually requires 2 hours a week to shop for their food? Serious question, by the way. We roll our carts a lot faster than that! I do. I go 2x/week as fruits tend to be good for 3-4 days max and the specials mean you tend to want to hit 2 stores/week. It takes 10-15 mins to get there, ~30-40 mi...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Strategy for 1099 Income
Replies: 18
Views: 1372

Re: Tax Strategy for 1099 Income

Open your own defined benefit plan. You have to hire an actuary but these plans are surprisingly flexible and you can shelter as much money from your side gig as you want. They can be used on top of your other retirement plans. Evey DBP has that I have seen has contribution limits. With only ~90k (...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 11226

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

An accurate assessment. No. One persons opinion. We can look back in 10 years and see how accurate it is. Details often matter. Why is Omaha steaks not the dominate provider of meat in the US? Is it because people want to buy steaks at their grocery store or is it because they don't want to pay 40/...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3940

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

A very helpful discussion here, thanks all.... I wonder if high equity allocations would get such wide endorsements in late 2008? ...ok, just spent some time back in late 2008 BH-Land, and while I didn't see much in the way of studies analyzing different AA's in the context of retirement, a great d...
by randomguy
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicaid Planning
Replies: 32
Views: 2073

Re: Medicaid Planning

I guess it's O.K. if you want to go into a Medicaid nursing home so badly that you're willing to give away the money that otherwise would let you have some options as to facilities and accommodations. Where I live, you'd have to be very strange indeed to put yourself into a Medicaid nursing home vo...
by randomguy
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3940

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

You are absolutely right. But, the struggle is to get the OP in any given situation to be clear what is important to them. Probably anxiety about having enough to retire dominates postings over those wanting to leave large legacies. What is hard is to get people to look at how things work for thems...
by randomguy
Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Freedom at 55, Early Retirement, SPIA a good idea?
Replies: 23
Views: 2095

Re: Financial Freedom at 55, Early Retirement, SPIA a good idea?

Would buying a Joint SPIA paying $8200/month (~about 5.20%) with the main portfolio a good idea at 55 ? 1. Delaying the purchase of an SPIA significantly increases the payout because of mortality credits. 2. The spending power of the payout will be eroded over the years by inflation - the longer th...
by randomguy
Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3940

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

Not sure a 70 year should be picking an AA designed to for 20 or 30 years. Perhaps the issue is selecting a Asset Allocation for abnormally long life spans when one selected for an average lifespan would work even if you live an extra decade beyond the average. From the FireCalc Your Portfolio Tab ...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 11226

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

What if Amazon Prime Members could pick up their Amazon packages at Whole Foods? Amazon already has over 1,800 Amazon Locker locations. The ones on college campuses are staffed and accept returns, have terminals to place orders, etc. m It seems almost inevitable that Whole Foods locations will have...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Worth it to buy expensive clothes?
Replies: 92
Views: 9317

Re: Worth it to buy expensive clothes?

Holy smokes...I went to the thrift store yesterday and got a pair of Polo pants, a pair of Polo shorts, a brand new pair of Greg Norman shorts, a Nike Dri-fit polo, and 2 button-down shirts (Brooks Brothers and J Crew). All are in excellent condition and fit well (I'm fortunate enough to be an off-...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options for Saving for a First-Home Down Payment
Replies: 25
Views: 1914

Re: Options for Saving for a First-Home Down Payment

It doesn't matter. You are talking small amounts of money and figuring out the winner is requires a bunch of guesses. I would probably not do CDs or i-savings, or treasury bonds just because it is a pain to add money to them. You don't want to end up with 10+ CDs with various maturities. I would pro...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3940

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

Age in bonds is a horrible rule of thumb. [...] If your yearly needs are 4% of your portfolio, you'll likely be ok, but should still tilt toward equities. 60/40+ should see you through, 80/20 will see you through. I've been running numbers in many ways in the past 5 years (and early-retired in the ...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Siblings in disagreement over mom's house.
Replies: 241
Views: 18365

Re: Siblings in disagreement over mom's house.

Talk to a lawyer. You might be able to force the issue (google partition sales). Is anyone living in the house right now? Often the big issue is that one kid is living in the house rent free and doesn't want to lose their free ride. Personally, I almost think that parents who leave real estate split...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 3940

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

Viewed this way, bonds are actually less safe than stocks in retirement. You just have to be willing to dip into principal and ride out the waves. It will help to retire just after a recession, not just before, but even with the sequence of returns risk folks fear about, equities are the way to go....
by randomguy
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?
Replies: 36
Views: 2252

Re: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?

Thanks guys for the links. One of those links showed me that renting is nowhere near as good as buying. If you can get 5% appreciation/year, you really should looking into buying a 5 million dollar house. You will make more than enough to retire in a couple of years:) The problem of course is that ...
by randomguy
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 4247

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

AlohaJoe wrote:
KlangFool wrote:How could something that could drop by 50% anytime be safe? Do not let the expert destroy your common sense.


You're talking about bonds, right?


Or cash. Both have lost 50% in <6 months in numerous countries throughout history. Basically nothing is safe
by randomguy
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?
Replies: 36
Views: 2252

Re: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?

YoungBoglehead, why not try running the numbers yourself? This is the biggest purchase you will likely ever make, so it's important that you understand the full cost of and benefits of both renting and owning, and make your own decision. We've provided the principles that you need to consider in yo...
by randomguy
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?
Replies: 36
Views: 2252

Re: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?

YoungBoglehead, why not try running the numbers yourself? This is the biggest purchase you will likely ever make, so it's important that you understand the full cost of and benefits of both renting and owning, and make your own decision. We've provided the principles that you need to consider in yo...
by randomguy
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?
Replies: 36
Views: 2252

Re: Buying cost vs renting (specifically for me)... can anyone fact check this?

If you can get 5% appreciation/year, you really should looking into buying a 5 million dollar house. You will make more than enough to retire in a couple of years:) The problem of course is that appreciation is guaranteed. You could be buying a the top for all you (or the agent) know. If you ignore ...
by randomguy
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3677

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

One thing a lot of other people forget is marginal vs. effective tax rate. Assuming you have no other source of income your Roth is always taxed at your marginal rate vs. when you withdraw in retirement you will withdraw some at 0%. Obviously this is just one case so YMMV. People rarely forgot that...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College admissions question - she got a "C"
Replies: 100
Views: 8665

Re: College admissions question - she got a "C"

Re: Highly selective colleges It's commonly perceived that a 5% acceptance rate means a college is super selective. It's a status symbol of sorts, for the school itself, the kids who go there, and others (faculty, parents, etc). But another way to view it is that a 5% acceptance rate is, at least i...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help My Mother "Survive"?
Replies: 67
Views: 4990

Re: Help My Mother "Survive"?

This would sound a bit off the rails. But, it's interesting to note that you would happily spend money on next generation (new babies), but would think twice before supporting your previous generation (Mom). For your Mom, you were a baby once and I am sure she spent money to raise you as well (for ...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Genetic testing and insurance
Replies: 18
Views: 1820

Re: Genetic testing and insurance

I am not familiar with the current laws and insurance companies' policies, but I think that you are correct to expect the worst. Laws can change. Coverage may be denied without explanation. Mortgage companies discriminate among borrowers. Automobile companies falsify emission results. Likewise, ins...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help My Mother "Survive"?
Replies: 67
Views: 4990

Re: Help My Mother "Survive"?

Warning: I'm not sugar coating this: When (not if) repo man shows up and takes the car away, she's going to have to figure out the bus. My wife's aunt has never had a car, is 80 and takes the bus all over for everything. She's 20 years younger. Heck....I'm only a few years younger and have thought ...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm going to be rich! [Fidelity retirement planner]
Replies: 31
Views: 5473

Re: I'm going to be rich!

Eh, I would change the setting from "Future Dollars" to "Today's Dollars" if you want an accurate understanding of how wealthy you will actually be 63 years of inflation makes the number big but adds no purchasing power. Why would you want to look at smaller numbers when you can...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Worth it to buy expensive clothes?
Replies: 92
Views: 9317

Re: Worth it to buy expensive clothes?

I think there is definitely a sharp uptick in quality when you go more expensive vs and I don't buy the cheapest shirts anymore, however dropping $250 per shirt feels way over the top. $75 or maybe $100 is as much as I'd ever spend. I would defintely not drop 5k in one sitting on a wardrobe upgrade...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3677

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

My marginal tax rate is 30%, so to put $1 in Roth I have to pay $0.30 in taxes. I can put $1 in Traditional tax free. I expect to be in the 15% tax bracket in retirement, so I will have to pay $0.15 to withdraw the Traditional $1. The net is $0.70 to use Roth and $0.85 to use Traditional -> Traditi...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3677

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

[quote="Crisium"]Very true. $1 in a traditional cannot be worth more than $1 in a Roth. That is an impossibility. The inverse is not true. What happens when I need to buy a 10k ACA policy and my income is either 12k from a ROTH or 12k from a traditional? a) ROTH: 12k -10k (not eligible for...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 39
Views: 3998

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

In this post , I did a Portfolio Visualizer run comparing an 80/20 LifeStrategy fund and a 60/40 LifeStrategy fund for the 20-year time frame 1995 to 2015. The difference was about 0.2% CAGR per year. Ha! Which over say a 40 year accumulation period adds up to having 10% more money. So when you ret...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3677

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

MR. BESHEARS: If a worker saves $5,000 a year in a 401(k) for 40 years and earns 5% return a year, the final balance will be more than $600,000. If the 401(k) is a Roth, the full balance is available for retirement spending. If the 401(k) is a traditional one, taxes are due on the balance. Let’s sa...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 39
Views: 3998

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

In this post , I did a Portfolio Visualizer run comparing an 80/20 LifeStrategy fund and a 60/40 LifeStrategy fund for the 20-year time frame 1995 to 2015. The difference was about 0.2% CAGR per year. Ha! Which over say a 40 year accumulation period adds up to having 10% more money. So when you ret...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 265
Views: 21897

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan

OK, ... You and your wife get sick at age 55. Medical expenses become $40,000 a year after insurance pays for everything else. And your property taxes go up to $20,000 a year. But, fortunately, your kids and other families members take care of you for the rest of your lives. When did you turn into ...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a 800k house in HCOL area (Boston area) ?
Replies: 42
Views: 4540

Re: Can we afford a 800k house in HCOL area (Boston area) ?

I live just outside of Boston. If you might have 2 kids, assume $4K per month for daycare. For one kid assume $3K. As others noted, for an $800K house assume close to $1K per month for taxes ($800 or so is probably the right number, but not a bad idea to round up). If you use $4400 as PITI (assume ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Option for a 6-month car?
Replies: 13
Views: 1253

Re: Best Option for a 6-month car?

The Nissan website says you can get a new 2017 Versa sedan, stripped, for $12K. That's an option. That's what I would do. I assume you don't know anybody selling a cheap used car. I don't know what your skills are. I would just look locally or on craigslist for a cheap used beater for $1K-$2K. Fix ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 11, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a 800k house in HCOL area (Boston area) ?
Replies: 42
Views: 4540

Re: Can we afford a 800k house in HCOL area (Boston area) ?

Are you suggesting that the smart thing to do is borrow as much as you can against your house and pay it off over as long a period as possible? For a fixed price home, less you want as big as mortgage as you can get. With low interest rates yes it is the financially smart thing to do. Run the math ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a 800k house in HCOL area (Boston area) ?
Replies: 42
Views: 4540

Re: Can we afford a 800k house in HCOL area (Boston area) ?

Yes, you probably can. Will you be doing a 15 year or 30 year? If you do a 30, I suggest coming up with a 1-3 year plan that puts you on a path to refinancing to a 15 year. Set aside all raises, make a pile of money from bonuses, pay down as much as you can to get into a 15 year as soon as possible...
by randomguy
Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College admissions question - she got a "C"
Replies: 100
Views: 8665

Re: College admissions question - she got a "C"

So, there you have it. Has that C dropped her out of the "top 10-15% of her graduating class?" If not, it hasn't closed any doors. Any ? Just not true. Unless the OP has a hook, Harvard's door is closed. But it probably was already with the B's. . The door on Harvard wasn't closed by 1 C....
by randomguy
Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations
Replies: 16
Views: 1423

Re: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations

"05/01/2017: Social Security OASI Depletion in 2035 The Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees estimates that Social Security's Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund has a projected reserve depletion date of 2035. At that time, OASI income would be sufficient to pay 77 per...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood
Replies: 74
Views: 4837

Re: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood

Thank you for this. Part of our issue is that both of us value our middle class upbringings in rural/suburban areas and the freedom that provided - free range kids, inexpensive birthday parties, not having to put your 3 year old in Mandarin lessons, etc. But neither of us wants to move to that kind...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Check made out to me, not S-Corp
Replies: 8
Views: 982

Re: Check made out to me, not S-Corp

Take impact is the same. Just need to make sure you don't double count. As someone said, they will likely sent you a 1099 in your name. Accourding I would just deposit in person and if it is a large sum transfer to the s corp and treat as a increase in stock basis. I doubt they can send you a 1099 ...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Exercise Equipment
Replies: 22
Views: 1623

Re: Used Exercise Equipment

! In our case, my wife and I didn't want to pay for gym memberships, In my locality, membership for those between 18 and 55 is about $200 per year for residents for membership at multiple locations. Low income folks get a significant break. For all those over 55, individual membership is $60 per YE...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a calculator that solves for optimal Roth conversion
Replies: 54
Views: 4560

Re: Is there a calculator that solves for optimal Roth conversion

+1. The problem with all these calculators is that none of them are able to accurately dissect your marginal tax rate in retirement. There are many reasons for this: 1) Your nominal marginal rate can change from year to year 2) IRMAA surcharges should be incorporated in some manner although this is...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a calculator that solves for optimal Roth conversion
Replies: 54
Views: 4560

Re: Is there a calculator that solves for optimal Roth conversion

I am juggling all of the following: when to take social security vs minimize income and continue with ACA credits for now since my retirement income is low vs taking long term capital gains at my current low income tax rates (tax free) and losing ACA credits, and possibly creating some Roth Convers...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a calculator that solves for optimal Roth conversion
Replies: 54
Views: 4560

Re: Is there a calculator that solves for optimal Roth conversion

+1. The problem with all these calculators is that none of them are able to accurately dissect your marginal tax rate in retirement. There are many reasons for this: 1) Your nominal marginal rate can change from year to year 2) IRMAA surcharges should be incorporated in some manner although this is...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 10845

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Being a "newly attentive investor" is exactly the wrong thing to be doing. You should not be an attentive investor. You should live a normal life and not pay attention to the "noise". Learn to knit or restore furniture or something instead, that's a far better use of your time. ...
by randomguy
Sat Jun 03, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a way on earth to reduce SS taxes?
Replies: 54
Views: 4864

Re: Is there a way on earth to reduce SS taxes?

deltaneutral83, << Realistically, would anyone even need to consider the first bend point? Indexed 372k earnings(?) over a lifetime, surely this is a moot point?>> Not for everyone else but it is relevant to OP. OP is 38 years old and only started working in the USA for 5 years. He may not reach 37...