Search found 3990 matches

by protagonist
Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TDBank promo just started easy $600
Replies: 62
Views: 6784

Re: TDBank promo just started easy $600

I just activated two TD Checking accounts using the promo link online for my wife and I. After the accounts were activated, we went to our local TD Bank to finish the process of activating our online accounts so we could login. The TD Bank representative confirmed that in order to receive the $300 ...
by protagonist
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TDBank promo just started easy $600
Replies: 62
Views: 6784

Re: TDBank promo just started easy $600

I have pushed money from both Ally and Schwab to TD Bank. Both show up as "DIRECTDEP" I will assume these will qualify. Great. I will try via Ally. Did you do it via Ally's page as a transfer? I added TD Bank as an external account and then initiated the transfer from the Ally account. Yo...
by protagonist
Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TDBank promo just started easy $600
Replies: 62
Views: 6784

Re: TDBank promo just started easy $600

Jags4186 wrote:I have pushed money from both Ally and Schwab to TD Bank.

Both show up as "DIRECTDEP"

I will assume these will qualify.


Great. I will try via Ally.

Did you do it via Ally's page as a transfer?
by protagonist
Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TDBank promo just started easy $600
Replies: 62
Views: 6784

Re: TDBank promo just started easy $600

I just activated two TD Checking accounts using the promo link online for my wife and I. After the accounts were activated, we went to our local TD Bank to finish the process of activating our online accounts so we could login. The TD Bank representative confirmed that in order to receive the $300 ...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Maintenance for the Urban Dweller
Replies: 9
Views: 795

Re: Car Maintenance for the Urban Dweller

Stonebr wrote: A year in the garage cost more than the car was worth near the end.


That's really funny.
by protagonist
Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?
Replies: 50
Views: 2912

Re: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?

Cost was $550 and I tipped $100. And he did not get all the $550 because the company he works for gets some cut. Seems miserly to not be reasonably generous. If you want exact numbers, I think Rodc's tip is generous, but well-deserved. It seems very reasonable to me, knowing the scene. If I were to...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?
Replies: 50
Views: 2912

Re: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?

$60 tip - 6 people on a $360 rafting trip. Our guide told me he lived in a tent. I once worked with a guy who made well into the 6 figures that lived out of his car. He was thrifty and felt he could save money by not renting a place to live. It definitely wasn't lack of income that caused him to ch...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 16, 2016 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Maintenance for the Urban Dweller
Replies: 9
Views: 795

Re: Car Maintenance for the Urban Dweller

If you are insured in the city where you live, and you are an average or better driver, your insurance premiums are a gamble with terrible odds. Think about it. Were this not the case, insurance companies would be all broke and Warren Buffett would be on a bread line. Plus, on top of the misery infl...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 16, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?
Replies: 50
Views: 2912

Re: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?

As a whitewater kayaker who has paddled with many of these people, I say tip them as much as you can possibly justify. The job is way harder than you can imagine, and they are barely ekeing out a living doing it. Many of them are elite athletes trying to make a living by running raft trips and worki...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cell phone data plans
Replies: 41
Views: 3381

Re: Cell phone data plans

How much of a data plan do you buy? What do you use it for? I am considering my first ever real cell phone plan but have no idea how much data would be needed. I get 2.5gb/month (Cricket). I download a lot of podcasts and stream them. I virtually never stream video via phone- most of my music is on...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

We're talking past each other. The probability of a 22% drop before 2050 could be 50%--I don't have any way of knowing. All I'm saying is that the occurrence of the 1987 crash is inconsistent with returns following a normal distribution (no informed person ever claimed they had to follow a normal d...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

Are you saying that the probability of the 1987 22% market drop was calculated to be one in 1 x 10*88 ? No, it's saying that under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns that's what it is. If that really is the probability, you wouldn't expect to see that happen ever in the age of the u...
by protagonist
Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private vs State School?
Replies: 116
Views: 6167

Re: Private vs State School?

We live in NY so I am referring to SUNY Binghamton vs a small liberal arts school in New England. My son is doing very well academically at his private school and majoring in history. Binghamton is a very good school. Top-notch schools like Williams or Amherst will give him a competitive edge. A $2...
by protagonist
Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Healthcare cost quotes (Not so simple)
Replies: 34
Views: 2179

Re: Healthcare cost quotes (Not so simple)

I'm curious how much money and manpower would be saved if we went to a single-payer system.
by protagonist
Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6512

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

I think the main lesson investors have to take from Japan is that the future is unpredictable. Not "just sort of" unpredictable....truly unpredictable (beyond the obvious). Mathematicians have known that for about half a century. Physicicists and biologists are catching on. Taleb is trying...
by protagonist
Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3087
Views: 682123

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future. "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929. "Irving Fisher stated on October 21 (1929) that the market was "...
by protagonist
Mon Jul 11, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Any One Have Any Experience Using the Goodreads Website
Replies: 15
Views: 1479

Re: Does Any One Have Any Experience Using the Goodreads Website

I bought one book from this UK company and had an excellent experience. The book was cheaper than on Amazon, and on top of that, they offer free shipment worldwide with no minimum and they do not charge sales tax (at least not in the US).

https://www.bookdepository.com/
by protagonist
Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

Reading about how the Bayesian approach was viciously concealed, suppressed, and (academically) prosecuted, I developed a suspicion that it may have not made it into financial analysis. Thus, I started this thread. The replies indicate that the Bayesian is not "news" in the financial comm...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lawn Replacement- Irish moss or ???
Replies: 12
Views: 1650

Re: Lawn Replacement- Irish moss or ???

I planted creeping thyme in an area other than my lawn, and over time it has spread into my lawn. It does really well in areas where nothing else wants to grow. It covers all of my compacted, high-traffic areas, and dry areas. It can't out-compete other lawn plants, but it does a very good job of f...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lawn Replacement- Irish moss or ???
Replies: 12
Views: 1650

Re: Lawn Replacement- Irish moss or ???

I used to run by a house whose unshaded front yard was covered in mint. Not sure how it held up under foot traffic, but it smelled great. This was in Honolulu, so perhaps limited in its applicability to cooler climes. Mint would grow fine, but it is too tall for my purposes and would not tolerate f...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lawn Replacement- Irish moss or ???
Replies: 12
Views: 1650

Re: Lawn Replacement- Irish moss or ???

I am interested in this myself. I have an area in the back that was in full shade until I have big (sick) maple cut down. I'm thinking of trying this seed shaker: http://www.outsidepride.com/seed/ground-cover-seed/irish-moss-groundcover-seed.html This is what I purchased. Any updates? Have to tried...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 10, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

. In either case millions of deaths a day is easily a 10 sigma event. But millions of deaths are within the agency of small groups of people. Anybody who puts the probability of millions of deaths in a day as 10^-23 is a wild eyed optimist. Why? One nuclear attack on a major city could EASILY wipe ...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 10, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

After market collapsed by 22%, which was 1/10 power 88 probability markets adopted skew in their model. Are you saying that the probability of the 1987 22% market drop was calculated to be one in 1 x 10*88 ? How could anybody suggest that the chance of that happening could be anywhere near that low...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 10, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

After market collapsed by 22%, which was 1/10 power 88 probability markets adopted skew in their model. Are you saying that the probability of the 1987 22% market drop was calculated to be one in 1 x 10*88 ? How could anybody suggest that the chance of that happening could be anywhere near that low...
by protagonist
Sun Jul 10, 2016 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

So what's the probability that it was a 10 sigma event that took down LTCM, vs that their frequentist models were wrong? :P Certainly, more likely their models were wrong. But that said, so many things happen every day....really every minute of every day....that extremely rare events are remarkably...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

Good 'Lunch' interview with Phillip Tetlock in the Financial Times. “The Arab Spring is not like drawing a card in poker where you are sampling from a well-defined universe, and you have repeated play, and you have clear feedback.” Each historical circumstance is unique and, the sceptics hold, succ...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 74
Views: 3794

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

- Identify potential critical events and their probabilities of happening. , Isn't this impossible? And the more "critical" an event is, the rarer and the less predictable the probabilities are, no? Example: In 2000, what was the probability of a terrorist attack of the size and with the ...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting rid of Credit cards
Replies: 30
Views: 2423

Re: Getting rid of Credit cards

In general, if you are not paying annual fees, there is no rationale for dumping credit cards you don't use, and there are advantages to keeping them. Part (a small part admittedly) of your credit score is based on the average amount of time you have held your cards, so the longer you hold them, the...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 43
Views: 3582

Re: Bond Market Bubble

Agreed. 5 year CDs are the best risk adjusted option with a 180 day or lower early withdrawal penalty. I agree with this. If you look at interest rates (treasuries) going back about 150 years, they tend to rise and fall in roughly 20-30 year cycles. They are now at an all-time low after a meteoric ...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S+P 500 is not very diversified
Replies: 77
Views: 5325

Re: S+P 500 is not very diversified

As Phineas J. Whoopee pointed out, it's a meaningless exercise unless we are willing to come up with some definition of the word "diversified." Does it mean having equal numbers of ticker symbols beginning with each of the letters A through Z? If not, why not? Let's forget the S&P 500...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S+P 500 is not very diversified
Replies: 77
Views: 5325

Re: S+P 500 is not very diversified

deleted- duplicate.
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S+P 500 is not very diversified
Replies: 77
Views: 5325

Re: S+P 500 is not very diversified

So 50% of the universe is represented by 10% of the stocks? In presidential election polls, the entire electorate of 200,000,000 is pretty reliably represented by 1000 people. Very different phenomena. The latter is a statistical reality predicted by the Central Limit Theorem if one assumes a norma...
by protagonist
Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S+P 500 is not very diversified
Replies: 77
Views: 5325

Re: S+P 500 contains the largest and most successful corporations in America

I just read the following. I cannot confirm accuracy: -3 stocks account for 10% of the S+P 500 -10 stocks account for 20% of the S+P 500 -50 stocks account for 50% of the S+P 500. If true, many of you already know this I am sure, but it was news to me. An S+P 500 index fund may be a lot less divers...
by protagonist
Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S+P 500 is not very diversified
Replies: 77
Views: 5325

S+P 500 is not very diversified

I just read the following. I cannot confirm accuracy: -3 stocks account for 10% of the S+P 500 -10 stocks account for 20% of the S+P 500 -50 stocks account for 50% of the S+P 500. If true, many of you already know this I am sure, but it was news to me. An S+P 500 index fund may be a lot less diversi...
by protagonist
Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Coaches?
Replies: 52
Views: 3801

Re: Retirement Coaches?

If you find yourself desperately needing an additional income, you will cease being a role model or a legitimate coach. Victoria Catch 22.. But couldn't you say the same about financial advisors? "You mean there's a catch?" "Sure there's a catch," Doc Daneeka replied. "Catc...
by protagonist
Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Coaches?
Replies: 52
Views: 3801

Re: Retirement Coaches?

The best coaches are your successful, happy retired friends (and probably the miserable ones too). Talk with them and question them about what best works for them, as well as their mistakes. If you have misgivings (which I assume you do if you are looking for a coach), ask your friends about your sp...
by protagonist
Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?
Replies: 36
Views: 3327

Re: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?

JCE66 wrote:8. Don't worry, be happy - you cannot control it, you can't even predict it...so stay the course, keep to your plan


Mostly this. All the world is a stage. Be thou the joyful player.
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 43
Views: 3582

Re: Bond Market Bubble

Agreed. 5 year CDs are the best risk adjusted option with a 180 day or lower early withdrawal penalty. I agree with this. If you look at interest rates (treasuries) going back about 150 years, they tend to rise and fall in roughly 20-30 year cycles. They are now at an all-time low after a meteoric ...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity lowers expense ratio of some index funds
Replies: 117
Views: 8411

Re: Fidelity Cutting Fees on Index Funds

Fidelity Index funds are fine funds for a tax deferred account. I would not use them in a taxable account since they have substantial non-qualified dividends and capital gains distributions (at least in their total market fund of late). These are not issues for Vanguard. Please explain this. Why wo...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many of you have cut cord?
Replies: 145
Views: 8625

Re: How many of you have cut cord?

I have thought about sling tv for $20 month during football season and/or mlb.tv to watch all my baseball games, but again...takes away time with family to focus on everyone else's lives. I knows that sounds insane to my sports friends out there, but I wanted to get your take. Watch your games at a...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?
Replies: 36
Views: 3327

Re: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?

What actionable advice would you give? What should a good Boglehead do if we are struck with what I call the 'Japan Scenario"? How will you know if we are in "the Japan scenario"? Clearly, if you knew at the moment it was happening, you would get out of the stock market. But, for exa...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world
Replies: 29
Views: 1574

Re: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world

zaboomafoozarg wrote:This is why I plan for 2%/0% real stock/bond returns for the rest of my life.


If you believe that, why are you investing in stocks and bonds (assuming that you are)? CDs are currently beating inflation without the risk or volatility.
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TDBank promo just started easy $600
Replies: 62
Views: 6784

Re: TDBank promo just started easy $600

I just activated two TD Checking accounts using the promo link online for my wife and I. After the accounts were activated, we went to our local TD Bank to finish the process of activating our online accounts so we could login. The TD Bank representative confirmed that in order to receive the $300 ...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions about booking private party at restaurant
Replies: 28
Views: 1729

Re: Questions about booking private party at restaurant

...I can charter a yacht for 30 with dinner and drinks for that price. If the budget allows, why not do this? I wanted to. I think it would be much cooler. It would be a LOT more expensive ($8000-11000 total?) . I was comparing the price to another restaurant I checked that would have been in a sim...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions about booking private party at restaurant
Replies: 28
Views: 1729

Re: Questions about booking private party at restaurant

mw1739 wrote:For what it's worth, I agree with everyone else that $150 a person for Manhattan seems quite reasonable.


I think it is too. I am not balking at the "relative" charge.....I was just surprised when I started asking around and found out how much this sort of thing costs.
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions about booking private party at restaurant
Replies: 28
Views: 1729

Re: Questions about booking private party at restaurant

You need to know more details: is the room private? How long is your booking for, the entire night? What, exactly, does your $60 food and $40-60 drink per person entail? Is it open bar? Are there restrictions on beverage orders? Is it open menu or fixed? Will you be controlling the music? You said ...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions about booking private party at restaurant
Replies: 28
Views: 1729

Re: Questions about booking private party at restaurant

Whatever you decide to do (or not do), I would NOT skimp on tips (and related) for anyone who comes near the food or cars! :wink: The 32% surcharge includes 20% tip for staff, 3% "event fee", and close to 9% state and city tax. That is part of the overall package. You just write one check...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions about booking private party at restaurant
Replies: 28
Views: 1729

Re: Questions about booking private party at restaurant

I would assume the total cost goes up as the average priced meal at the restaurant goes up. For a comparison with the cheapest party in your area, call a pizza restaurant that has a private room. Also talk to friends who may have booked a large group at a restaurant. If it was for me, I'd be happy ...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions about booking private party at restaurant
Replies: 28
Views: 1729

Re: Questions about booking private party at restaurant

Considering the location (Manhattan) - that looks like a very reasonable price. I am not sure that benchmarking the price of a restaurant entrée at the location is a useful guideline...in this case, it's also about the space and the additional labor. To drive the price down, maybe consider a less e...
by protagonist
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions about booking private party at restaurant
Replies: 28
Views: 1729

Re: Questions about booking private party at restaurant

Do you plan for people to simply arrive, eat and leave? I would think not if you're hiring musicians. Restaurants make money turning over tables. If your group is taking up the time that normal restaurant goers turn over 4 times, I'd expect you'd be expected to pay more than the normal price of a s...

Go to advanced search