Search found 262 matches

by pop77
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How badly did I get ripped off? [Auto lease]
Replies: 21
Views: 3076

Re: How badly did I get ripped off?

What! Bogleheads talking about lease???
You had me at lease.. why would anyone lease a car unless there are some tax advantages (like running a business)?
by pop77
Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Investing / Finance Podcasts?
Replies: 15
Views: 1824

Re: Favorite Investing / Finance Podcasts?

Morningstar
Wealthtrack
Doug Roller
Motley Fool
Paul Merriman
WSJ
by pop77
Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)
Replies: 102
Views: 7967

Re: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)

POP just check out 2008 when PFF lost about 23% and 5 year Treasuries earned about 23% and underperformance of 46% just when needed most, and then tell me it's good substitute. Any way you look at it preferreds should not be owned by any individuals Larry Great. It is funny how soon we forget! Than...
by pop77
Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)
Replies: 102
Views: 7967

Re: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)

POP Funny you should ask as I get many questions about them as another alternative and the investment banks love to market them. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Just finished a piece on them which we'll publish shortly Larry Looking forward to it. Recently a friend of mine close to retirement showed me some analys...
by pop77
Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)
Replies: 102
Views: 7967

Re: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)

How about preferred stock index funds as a substitute?
by pop77
Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Fund Ideas
Replies: 24
Views: 1677

Re: Emergency Fund Ideas

I find it shocking that people would use credit card debt so freely. Yes, but it is a free loan if you pay off the balance, which I always do. Why not use someone else's money for short term needs if it costs you nothing? It is better than having my own cash sit idle, earning no return. Sure but it...
by pop77
Mon May 23, 2016 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Painting House Interior - How easy to do it yourself?
Replies: 101
Views: 6068

Re: Painting House Interior - How easy to do it yourself?

Thanks for all the responses. Looks like it is easy to do but time consuming and can teach me patience :-). Ceiling height is 8 ft and 7 ft (in second floor).
by pop77
Mon May 23, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Painting House Interior - How easy to do it yourself?
Replies: 101
Views: 6068

Painting House Interior - How easy to do it yourself?

Want to paint the house interior. Mine is a relatively new house (about 2600 SQFT) and has the half white color that the builder painted when we bought the house three years ago. When I got a couple of quotes, the labor is five times the cost of the paint. And comes with a caveat that they will only...
by pop77
Sat Apr 16, 2016 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating ROI on buying a home
Replies: 4
Views: 617

Re: Calculating ROI on buying a home

Thanks Cruncher. This surely is a good shortcut. The reason I wanted to use XIRR is because, I did some refinancing and during refinancing I paid down mortgage a bit more, I also have some uneven payments where at the beginning where I made some extra payments towards principal. I also want to look ...
by pop77
Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating ROI on buying a home
Replies: 4
Views: 617

Re: Calculating ROI on buying a home

I added up monthly mortgage interest (tax adjusted, meaning interest * (1- federal+state income tax rate)), property tax, Home Insurance, HOE fee, maintenance and additional utilities and compared to my rent. And it was a good deal, meaning I will have pay at least an additional $500 for an equival...
by pop77
Fri Apr 15, 2016 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating ROI on buying a home
Replies: 4
Views: 617

Calculating ROI on buying a home

This is probably discussed before, but my search returned too many results and I am not sure whether this angle has been discussed before. I want the forum to evaluate the logic and math here. Mortgage has two components, Principal and Interest. In addition to this you have property taxes, Home Insu...
by pop77
Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

Bought WPPGY today (2/8)@ 96.35
by pop77
Sun Feb 07, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: Picking winning funds in advance. A loser's game.

pop77: Sometimes we fail to remember our mistakes. In April, 2008, (your third post) you wrote: Postby pop77 ┬╗ Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:45 pm I keep reading a lot of articles about lazy portfolios and index investing. However I am still not convinced that indexes cannot be beaten. I think it is against t...
by pop77
Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

Please post your purchases here in real time so we can track them going forward. I probably will if you can post your purchases as well. I will probably do the stock and the price holding off quantity. That is more than I am willing to share. I want this tracked over long periods of time (decades) ...
by pop77
Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

General reply not citing anyone, I have read somewhere that " A bad argument supporting what you believe is much worse than a good argument against you". Some arguments in support of individual stock picking like the one which said that they were able to get out of market just in time that...
by pop77
Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

I remember the day I learned this lesson. I owned many individual stocks, among them was Washington Mutual, "the friend of the family" was the company slogan. I live in Seattle. I'd banked there for years; our mortgage was through the bank. The stock paid a high dividend and had a solid r...
by pop77
Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

I believe that the risks of investing in individual stocks is often exaggerated. The article I thought was a bit over the top. A poster pointed out that individual stock portfolios tend to be pretty heavily weighted in large cap, blue chip stocks. Someone else pointed out that price and valuations ...
by pop77
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

Please post your purchases here in real time so we can track them going forward. I probably will if you can post your purchases as well. I will probably do the stock and the price holding off quantity. That is more than I am willing to share. I want this tracked over long periods of time (decades) ...
by pop77
Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

Thanks Taylor. I guess it's like anything in life, it depends on your goal. If you want to try to make some quick cash, and are willing to deal with significant risk, go right ahead! I would not classify everyone buying individual stocks as someone looking for quick cash. That is overgeneralizing.
by pop77
Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

Picking an average assortment of large-cap stocks as a proxy for the market is no difficult task. The DJIA has done a reasonable job of . There is an extreme amount of bias selecting stocks ex-post, for example the above chart included Microsoft since 1994, it was hardly what anyone would call a &q...
by pop77
Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

The following chart shows how some blue chips have beaten total stock market index handily over long term. So, which blue chips will beat the market going forward? It all depends on price. I am currently watching DEO (will buy around 100), NSRGY (will buy under 70), WPPGY (Will buy under 100) and U...
by pop77
Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 11298

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

I know this is against most of forum members thoughts, I have even been called 'anti-boglehead' but I think one can hold individual stocks and can also be a boghlehead. I have 50% invested in individual stocks (most of them dividend aristocrats, champions whatever name you choose) and 50% in funds. ...
by pop77
Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

I use a similar method. But here is a question, say you have 10,000. EM is off by 8%, Small Cap is off by 6% and International Developed is off by 5% and international RE is off by 6%. Do you allocate all 10,000 to EM? or do you try allocating 2000 to EM and wait. The math is too complicated with t...
by pop77
Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

Your statements about RBD suggest you misunderstand it. There has not been an RBD in Vanguard Total Stock Index fund yet in 2016. I agree. Looks like many here do not understand RBD fully. It is clouded in mystery! Can you write or point to a complete write up of RBD method? Some thing like the mos...
by pop77
Sun Jan 17, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

1. I do not move enough money from Cash/Bonds to the beaten down asset class (Say Emerging Markets), and the beaten down asset class bounces back quickly. 2. I move too much cash too quickly to the beaten down asset class and the beaten down asset class keeps falling . Currently I do not have a spe...
by pop77
Sun Jan 17, 2016 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

OP, 1) I have a spreadsheet that keep track of all my investments and how far off that they are in term of my allocation. 2) When I have new money, I put money into investment / asset class that deviated negatively the most from my allocation. Aka, need more money. 3) I do both 5/25 band based re-b...
by pop77
Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

I am sure this has been discussed here, but could not find a definitive thread. This is one of the practical aspect of down markets that investors in the 'accumulation phase' face. I have a standard allocation to cash/bond. Cash is not a whole lot just 1% of the portfolio. I do have some cash for e...
by pop77
Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 199
Views: 27767

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Once I see most of the members on this forum finding some arbitrary reason on why Emerging Markets is a bad idea and when people are feeling extremely bad about investing in Emerging Markets I will call it a bottom. I still see a lot of energy and optimism in EM on this forum. I am still trickling i...
by pop77
Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

OP, it shows you joined in 2007. I have to ask why your comments are so anti-Boglehead? These are some of the basics. No offense meant. Thanks for the input. I do not know whether I am 'anti-boglehead' I guess, I am trying to optimize. I am sure many bogleheads try to do the same. If no one cares a...
by pop77
Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

Some tips from retirees might also be applicable here..
by pop77
Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2568

Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

I am sure this has been discussed here, but could not find a definitive thread. This is one of the practical aspect of down markets that investors in the 'accumulation phase' face. I have a standard allocation to cash/bond. Cash is not a whole lot just 1% of the portfolio. I do have some cash for em...
by pop77
Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Stocks overvalued and could see 50%+ drop
Replies: 29
Views: 4263

Re: Article: Stocks overvalued and could see 50%+ drop

You'll frequently hear people in this forum saying "tune out the noise." The sort of article you quoted is exactly the noise you should be tuning out. You will always find articles explaining why the stock market is about to crash. And you will always find other articles explaining why it...
by pop77
Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Funds to Asset Classes based on Valuations
Replies: 8
Views: 696

Re: Allocating Funds to Asset Classes based on Valuations

LadyGeek wrote:^^^ It's in the wiki: Callan periodic table of investment returns


Thank you. In this table I do not see alternate investments like REITS, Commodities, Emerging Markets Bond, International Real Estate etc. Is there a more comprehensive periodic table somewhere?
by pop77
Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Funds to Asset Classes based on Valuations
Replies: 8
Views: 696

Re: Allocating Funds to Asset Classes based on Valuations

I think in terms of P/E ratios, the bond market looks even worse .. Star Capital's CAPE ratios page is food for ideas I agree but the bond market does not go down that much and I can use it to park funds and transfer it to small cap or emerging markets on really bad days. I used to use the money ma...
by pop77
Sun Dec 27, 2015 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Funds to Asset Classes based on Valuations
Replies: 8
Views: 696

Allocating Funds to Asset Classes based on Valuations

I am trying to determine how to allocate the funds for the next year. I do this typically twice a year. Currently I am under allocated to Small Caps/Emerging Markets/International RE and Domestic RE. In 2015 I completely avoided allocated funds to SmallCap and Domestic RE based on their valuation. I...
by pop77
Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage
Replies: 376
Views: 52050

Re: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage

This is classic example of Level 1 Vs Level 2 thinking. However the big assumption is rates will stay low till term of the car loan and will start rising after 5 years. If either interest rate starts rising before 5 years or stays low even after 5 years, you should be ok.
by pop77
Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you decide your asset allocation?
Replies: 175
Views: 11523

Re: How do you decide your asset allocation?

Each asset class has a purpose, Stocks/Real Estate provide inflation protection, Bonds/Cash provide deflation protection. As I am already protected for inflation using Stocks/REITs, I try to have the bond portion protect against deflation. As inflationary scenario seems to have a higher probability ...
by pop77
Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 9095

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

As some one wrote in another post or in some book. The only thing that matters is the split between Stocks and Bonds/Cash allocation for diversification. All other allocation is bogus. You still need international not for diversification but for exposure. At least that is why I hold Emerging Markets...
by pop77
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9050

Re: Piling into emerging markets

Emerging Markets have been underperforming for the past few years not just now, dragging down my overall portfolio returns. I have been patiently adding to them through 401k. Little bit off topic, but I wonder whether it makes sense to dollar cost average these high volatile markets or just buy per...
by pop77
Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Omaha this weekend
Replies: 29
Views: 3486

Re: Omaha this weekend

After considering and postponing for many years, this year I pulled the plug and am going! It is 50th year after all. Looking forward to it! I don't eat meat so I guess I need to research some Veggie places :-)
by pop77
Wed Apr 01, 2015 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you need a laugh today...
Replies: 7
Views: 1746

Re: If you need a laugh today...

There is a reason why Fibonacci sequences occur in nature, and those reasons don't apply to the stock market. It's math, not numerology. The marvelous Vi Hart explains it clearly. I think I'm going to get rich writing a newsletter expounding the use of Lucas numbers in investing. Doodling in Math: ...
by pop77
Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you hold bonds and a mortgage at the same time?
Replies: 90
Views: 9491

Re: Should you hold bonds and a mortgage at the same time?

Very interesting discussion. Is there a way to attach a value to 'tax deference'? I have a mortgage at 2.75% pretax and all my bonds are in tax-deferred (VBTIX) with SEC yield of 2 %. Assuming my current income tax rate and income tax when I withdraw my bond is going to be same, looks like paying of...
by pop77
Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five most important things to be a successful investor?
Replies: 38
Views: 5245

Re: Five most important things to be a successful investor?

1. LBYM - Save first (by making saving automatic(401k)) and spend what is left
2. Read past market history - How markets crashed and eventually came back
3. Have an Emergency Fund
4)Avoid debt other than mortgage/student loan
5) Invest in assets with highest volatility (and highest return) early on
by pop77
Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio diversification
Replies: 10
Views: 1088

Re: My portfolio diversification

Good cautionary tale on Kodak and Fannie Mae. As knowledge is cumulative, I am learning a lot. My strategy and approach is lot different than what I did 10 years ago. I have learned my lesson with financials and I am not going to repeat it. Regarding Kodak example, this is the reason I am nervous ab...
by pop77
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio diversification
Replies: 10
Views: 1088

Re: My portfolio diversification

Thanks Ned. My dividend stock portfolio is a carefully selected set of stocks which I hope will help mitigate the risk somewhat. I understand they are not bond substitutes theoretically but can serve the purpose practically. They are names like JNJ, PEP, UTX ,KO, WMT, MCD,AAPL, NSRGY,GIS,WPPGY etc w...
by pop77
Mon Mar 16, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio diversification
Replies: 10
Views: 1088

Re: My portfolio diversification

Here are the allocations FSIIX - Intl Dev Markets -15% FPMAX - Emerging Markets Stock - 10% GIM - Global Bond - 6% FNMIX -Emerging Markets Bond - 6% VNQ - USRE - 6% VNQI - Intl RE - 6% VSCPX - SMall Cap - 7.5% VMCPX - Mid Cap - 7.5% VBTIX - US Bond - 13% IGF - Infrastructure - 8% HACMX - Commodity -...
by pop77
Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio diversification
Replies: 10
Views: 1088

My portfolio diversification

Here is the asset correlation matrix for 50% of my investments. The remaining 50% is in individual dividend paying stocks (mostly US). As you might see this asset matrix does not have any asset class for US large cap. Please comment on whether you think this portion of the portfolio is well diversif...
by pop77
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rental Car Prices - is this the new normal ?
Replies: 89
Views: 10510

Re: Rental Car Prices - is this the new normal ?

The most annoying part is almost half of the charge is in taxes in fees. If you are a AAA member try booking Hertz through their website. They have good discounts.
by pop77
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth 401k Vs Traditional 401k question
Replies: 4
Views: 469

Re: Roth 401k Vs Traditional 401k question

Roth 401k has RMD. However, you can rollover the Roth 401k assets to Roth IRA to avoid RMD. With 20K pension income which may fill your 0% bracket upon retirement, you may be able to withdraw from 401k at lower average tax rates than the 25% fed 5% state that you'd pay now for Roth 401k contributio...

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