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by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Support Your Forum!
Replies: 25
Views: 2513

Re: Support Your Forum!

It's that time of year again. Support the folks who make this forum possible.
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 153
Views: 3558

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

This is a good definition of market timing: Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements . You can clearly see that rebalancing according to a investment policy statement is quite different. Th...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?
Replies: 23
Views: 1270

Re: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?

effillus, just to cover the other important aspect of retirement funding you have to also protect against inflation eroding your spending power.

See discussion here:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=204870

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?
Replies: 23
Views: 1270

Re: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?

Most investors nearing retirement want to reduce portfolio volatility to minimize big swings in asset value so they can make reliable decisions. Those with lots of financial ability may not worry about it so much.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: article of interest regarding Vanguard as a monopoly
Replies: 27
Views: 2392

Re: article of interest regarding Vanguard as a monopoly

Someone is sour grapes over losing customers to those evil low cost investment companies. Rather than get competitive, they would prefer to knock out the low cost competition.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Best Practices for Rebalancing
Replies: 2
Views: 472

Vanguard - Best Practices for Rebalancing

An interesting Vanguard study on rebalancing. July/2010. This study is not new, but I could not find reference to it. Anyway, I'm sure there are lots of newer readers who have not seen it. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwifsdDs6uTQAh...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 1674

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

desiderium wrote: Possible justification of fees (I am looking at 0.5-0.85% range) through use of more clever factor-based vehicles and better management overall. I'm not sure what better management actually means. If you have a rather simple 3-6 fund portfolio it just isn't hard to manage. A clever...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 3015

Re: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?

would it be a very safe portfolio if I only keep just one total stock fund in my portfolio?

Of course not.
In my opinion, this is safer than the 50/50 stock/bond portfolio in terms of market downturns, inflation, and longevity risks. What do you think?

I think not. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: moving to Fidelity index funds ~ questions
Replies: 12
Views: 1604

Re: moving to Fidelity index funds ~ questions

In my opinion your desired asset allocation of 70/30 stocks/bonds is very aggressive at age 70. In my opinion at age 70 something the range of 60/40 to 40/60 stocks/bonds would be within reason. That would be across all accounts, viewing all accounts together as a single unified portfolio. A 50/50 ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF vs. index funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1023

Re: ETF vs. index funds

Thanks everyone. I like the beer analogy. I was wondering if there was some specific advantage to ETF besides small initial investments of which I was unaware. Other than what you mention, there is no advantage. Vanguard ETFs are different jackets for the corresponding funds. Some, including John B...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: moving to Fidelity index funds ~ questions
Replies: 12
Views: 1604

Re: moving to Fidelity index funds ~ questions

What split do you recommend? I'm most concerned about 20 years from now. My only other account is 100k savings at a local credit union. I would like to invest most of that after changing the IRAs, perhaps in a municipal bond fund that's tax free. Is that a good option? Thank you all for your helpfu...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: posting a too tall picture
Replies: 8
Views: 806

Re: posting a too tall picture

Thanks Digarei, that will do it.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Bonds and stock allocation help!!
Replies: 3
Views: 410

Re: 401K Bonds and stock allocation help!!

tomyoneto, I replied in you earlier thread and you need to read that.

Also, it's better if you keep all related questions in one place.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 03, 2016 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making the best of a terrible 401k
Replies: 15
Views: 648

Re: Making the best of a terrible 401k

You're right, it's terrible. I noticed they have a 0.74% 12b-1 fee, which is really upping the ER. It's so bad I really wonder if it's in compliance. American has already dropped the front-end load, and I'm surprised the high 12-1 is still used. I think the employees would win a law suit if they dec...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investment personal decision
Replies: 12
Views: 1781

Re: investment personal decision

tomyoneto, To review, you have two accounts at Fidelity, one is a rollover and now in an IRA, and the other is a 401k plan. Then you have, or want to open, another taxable account to save for 3-5 years. Is this correct? Also, what is your current tax bracket? For the IRA rollover, (# I) I would sugg...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.
Replies: 46
Views: 5422

Re: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.

Here's a really nice calculator for RMD. At 70-1/2, spouse <10 years younger, initial withdrawal is 3.6%. At age 73, it is 4%. Play with the Rate of Return slide and watch the chart at the bottom chance shape.

https://www.dinkytown.net/java/RetireDistrib.html


Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 153
Views: 11636

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

As I recall, Merriman's website has papers on how his portfolios have been developed. I would recommend that those curious investigate that resource. Such as this? http://paulmerriman.com/the-ultimate-retirement-portfolio/ He is a little schizophrenic. He has some good indexing papers. Then he also...
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:28 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: posting a too tall picture
Replies: 8
Views: 806

Re: posting a too tall picture

Rod, did you get your question answered?

I sometimes want to post a M* chart and I get the response that the image is too large or dimensions are unknown. I would like to know how to resize smaller. Photo editor, or is there something I can do at M*?


Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 02, 2016 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is This Insane?
Replies: 28
Views: 3474

Re: Is This Insane?

Here's a very simple answer: If you have to ask, then it's not a good idea. There are also clues in your post that are troubling-- It consistently gets 10% real returns No, it has gotten... I see no reason it wouldn't work in the future Something in me feels it's too good to be true I'm scared of a ...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to read the Morningstar Fund Category Performance Charts
Replies: 3
Views: 288

Re: How to read the Morningstar Fund Category Performance Charts

If you haven't used M* fund data page, look here. Input the ticker symbol in the quote box at the top of the page and you will see star rating and medal rating. However, even M* says the have no predictive value. What is it you are trying to do? http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-re...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 01, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just bought a lot of bonds today per my IPS--and felt very uneasy doing it
Replies: 23
Views: 2826

Re: Just bought a lot of bonds today per my IPS--and felt very uneasy doing it

You are not going to lose it. It may take a dip, but if it does, it will come back. Relax, you did the right thing. Later, or maybe sooner, the market may take a dip and you will be glad you followed your plan.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 01, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 153
Views: 11636

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

We are getting off track here, so I suggest we open a new post on what risk really is. As far as this statement goes past performance does not guarantee future results; isn't it simply a truism? Two good definitions of risk: Risk is the possibility that a sound strategy may lead to a poor outcome. R...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will VDC drop to $123.23?
Replies: 8
Views: 1014

Re: Will VDC drop to $123.23?

Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) is currently at $130.71/share. Do you think it will drop to $123.23 within 60 days?


No, but may we ask why you want to know?
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Company New (bad) Plan - Suggestions, Please?
Replies: 9
Views: 630

Re: New Company New (bad) Plan - Suggestions, Please?

dlong wrote: Other than Vanguard funds, the Expense Ratio for the rest seems really high. You don't need anything other than the Vanguard options, at least for stocks. Note, if your 401k total fees are really 0.3%, they would be considered very low. The Vanguard options are also extremely low, S&...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?
Replies: 24
Views: 3348

Re: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?

Park wrote: Paul, you mention that If I did a considerable amount of research, you can't see how I would choose 100% SV. It sounds like the basis of that statement is that I don't mention bonds or large value. You did say you intended to go 100% SV. That means nothing else but SV. No bonds or cash. ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?
Replies: 24
Views: 3348

Re: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?

Thanks, you seem to have done considerable research on this subject, but if you did I can't see how you would choose 100% SV. You also seem to have concerns for current market valuations, so are you going to ignore that and implement 100% small value now? While I agree that value investing is good, ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?
Replies: 24
Views: 3348

Re: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?

What interests me more is avoiding prolonged negative returns. And from what I've seen, the risk of prolonged negative returns is greater with market cap indexing than value investing. I don't believe that's always true, but it might depend on how you define value investing. I'm sure you now realiz...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on Vanguard fund
Replies: 9
Views: 928

Re: Question on Vanguard fund

Lack_ey makes some good points, but overall I think TM balanced is a decent fund, and it's tax-efficiency is high--in the range of total market. A balanced fund like this does not need to be a problem because when you consider the whole portfolio as you should, you can rebalance or change allocation...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 153
Views: 11636

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

AlohaJoe wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:Turn on a Paradigm was difficult to find, but I did find it.


For me it was the first result in a Google search, leading me to the original Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB115137454384691506


Yes, I found that too, but it requires a sign in/sign up.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 153
Views: 11636

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

There is somewhat of a disconnect here. The article Turn on a Paradigm is all about market cap vs fundamental weighting while Merriman is arguing for small caps and value as part of a fully diversified portfolio. He does not argue the point of market cap weighting except for the idea of overweightin...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 221
Views: 17467

Re: "Factor investing"

If you use factor investing you must be attempting to beat the market. If it does always beat the market, then it will become the market. I think this is a trap for most folks when considering factor investing - that it should yield superior, above-market returns. It is a shame that it is marketed ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio for retirement
Replies: 69
Views: 6825

Re: Three fund portfolio for retirement

It gets easier as you approach retirement. I would hope that to be the case, but at least in my situation I doubt it. Even at retirement age, I may have some kids in college, be supporting others with special needs, and possibly having to assist with grandkids. Life does not always work out as simp...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 187
Views: 14957

Re: Retreat to cash

Marge, since you are not in the accumulation phase and seem to have a low withdrawal rate, your decision isn't going to cause a problem. Or is that your withdrawal rate is too high and you have to protect yourself from loss? You have also mentioned that you have held through some market drops becaus...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 28, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put Star Fund..
Replies: 6
Views: 911

Re: Where to put Star Fund..

Replying to retiredjg's post would be helpful. A back-door Roth may be a way to get into a Roth IRA.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth_IRA


Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better fund while accumulating
Replies: 5
Views: 625

Re: Better fund while accumulating

Schwab's TR index funds look good and you they will provide better diversification. I would choose one of them. Choose by stock the allocation you want, not by date.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 28, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put Star Fund..
Replies: 6
Views: 911

Re: Where to put Star Fund..

It's not clear, but maybe the OP is saying he cannot contribute to a Roth because income is too high. Saphomd, please clarify what you would like to do. Is the problem high tax for selling, or income is too high to make Roth contribution?


Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating my own target retirement glide
Replies: 57
Views: 3374

Re: Creating my own target retirement glide

You are showing about 80% stocks at age 60 (5 years before retirement) and that could be risky unless you are able to use a 2.5% withdrawal rate. If 4% is needed, then a 40% loss would cause big problem. If you retire at ~70 you will be about 60% equity, but again, if this is realistic depends on o...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating my own target retirement glide
Replies: 57
Views: 3374

Re: Creating my own target retirement glide

kehyler, I think your plan is good, with the clause that it may be necessary to modify it along the way. Having said that, I would not use your aggressive path nor livesoft's suggestion of no more than 25% bonds. But these are personal decisions and obviously the charts can be tailored to an individ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?
Replies: 24
Views: 3348

Re: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?

park, if I've read you right, your option would be active growth, equal weighted, and maybe minus large caps? Value and growth rotate in periods of outperformance. It is not easy to beat an index of either value of growth over time using active funds, or individual stocks, right? How are you going t...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 26, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Freedom® 2045 Fund FFFGX VS FIOFX ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1413

Re: Fidelity Freedom® 2045 Fund FFFGX VS FIOFX ?

Welcome Boglegirl, great start on day 1!

Not surprised you didn't know about Fidelity TR index funds. Fidelity does not promote them and they are hard to find on the website.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market cycle and return to historical average.
Replies: 23
Views: 1443

Re: Market cycle and return to historical average.

Peter, here are historical returns for S&P500. You should look at geometric returns at bottom of page. From 1928 through 2015 geometric average has been 9.5%. Current calculations (predictions) for next 10 years is much lower than that average, but who really knows. In 2008, the S&P500 lost ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market cycle and return to historical average.
Replies: 23
Views: 1443

Re: Market cycle and return to historical average.

You can get 12% if you listen to Dave Ramsey. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in VTI and VOO
Replies: 11
Views: 1401

Re: Investing in VTI and VOO

Zig, just to be sure you've got it right, VTI (total market) contains 19% mid and 9% small, that is market weight. Your mix above is simply less mid/small compared to market (VTI). The volatility of VTI is currently about 10.9 vs 10.7 for S&P500, so you really don't get higher volatility with VT...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move IRA to private shares?
Replies: 18
Views: 1245

Re: Move IRA to private shares?

I'm curious as to why you want to invest in private shares. Do you have one particular company in mind or are you involved with a start-up?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 25, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Boglehead Investor - 40K to invest
Replies: 7
Views: 821

Re: New Boglehead Investor - 40K to invest

Welcome to the forum, Hey guys, I am a new investor here. I have about 40K cash on hand to invest (for general savings, not retirement, If you aren't planning to keep this until retirement, you don't want to use an IRA because you will get penalized for taking the money out. You have to have taxabl...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap vs Large Cap Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 1236

Re: Small Cap vs Large Cap Funds

jimt, your interest in small caps wouldn't have anything to do with recent performance, would it? Small cap performance is very streaky and unpredictable. Small caps are very difficult to hold for investors who don't thoroughly understand them, and even that is not enough. Investors must also have t...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with retirement Asset Allocations/Funds
Replies: 1
Views: 282

Re: Help with retirement Asset Allocations/Funds

Welcome to the forum, Hi, all. I am a 26 year old currently looking for advice on how to divide up my roth, rollover, 401K, & taxable account money. I am confused as to what & how many share I should buy for each. Here are my current stats. My AA is 48% US stocks, 32% Intnl stocks, 14% US b...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 187
Views: 14957

Re: Retreat to cash

This discussion is about bailing out of the market, not politics. Something, and it could be any number of things, has spooked the OP and she is considering getting out. That is not a good idea no matter what the envisioned scary thing is. The answer is always the same--don't do it.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investment personal decision
Replies: 12
Views: 1781

Re: investment personal decision

Welcome tomyoneto, If you will be needing all the money you've saved in 3 to 5 years, then even with 35% equity you run the risk of 15-20% of it not being there when you need it. That is a very short time to use much equity unless you can do with somewhat less. I would suggest no more than 20% in eq...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 187
Views: 14957

Re: Retreat to cash

marge wrote: My hypothesis is that there in a period of uncertainty coming within the next year, which will lead to a market decline The real fact is every period carries uncertainty, whether you think you see it or not. I agree, the market looks overvalued and there will be an adjustment, which mig...

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