Search found 12028 matches

by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 73
Views: 4128

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Generally speaking any investment strategy that is likely to lose you money doesn't sound like a good idea. What is your suggested alternative? Yes, my question also. What are you going to do with the money instead of holding bonds? You asked, Is holding bonds now dangerous? What about holding stoc...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far
Replies: 19
Views: 2014

Re: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far

Thanks Ron. I wonder if they can get close forecasting for two months. Basically they are all saying the market will drop between now and end of year.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far
Replies: 19
Views: 2014

Re: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far

Here are predictions for the S&P 500, which is trading around 2580 today: 2,300 — Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2,300 — Credit Suisse 2,300 — UBS 2,300 — Goldman 2,325 — Citi 2,325 — Jeffires 2,350 — BMO 2,350 — Deutsche Bank 2,400 — JPMorgan 2,450 — Oppenheimer Ron, when were these predictions mad...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree
Replies: 34
Views: 2069

Re: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree

I know it's taboo to talk about market timing here, but I am worried about the current market situation. Please note that this pertains only to a retirement situation, not an accumulation one. My concern is that the current environment is one of high valuations with those valuations seemingly propp...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please criticize my asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 674

Re: Please criticize my asset allocation

Playing off the question here, I have a similar but more radical question. If you can remain rational, I am not sure why a 100% stock strategy would not work for many. If you have decades before retirement why would anyone not be 100% stocks? Unless they are going to panic at any downturn. When ret...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please criticize my asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 674

Re: Please criticize my asset allocation

BogleMelon, the age to stock allocation is simply a guidelne because I guess there needs to be one, but stock allocations can be whatever you feel is right for you. My feeling is your stock allocations vs age are aggressive based on what I've seen on the forum, but I can't give you a very good reaso...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beta and the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 512

Re: Beta and the Market

So the beta of an Emerging Markets index fund, or European index fund would not be compared to the S&P 500 or total US stock market? I'm looking on Morningstar and it does not specify (at-least i can't find) what market the beta is derived from. Mike, on M* scroll to the bottom of the page and clic...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: BH recent Membership [BogleHead]
Replies: 15
Views: 1323

Re: BH recent Membership

Interesting chart. Thanks for posting it. If my math is correct, new membership has been growing at about 17% per year since 2009 and the Financial Crisis — that's even better than the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested (at 15.5% nominal per year)! ;-) That's an interesting observation. Does it sugg...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Battle of index funds- 3 against 1
Replies: 14
Views: 1803

Re: Battle of index funds- 3 against 1

Thanks Taylor, you are the ballast on this vessel, a.k.a. the forum. :moneybag


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: BH recent Membership [BogleHead]
Replies: 15
Views: 1323

BH recent Membership [BogleHead]

Here is a chart showing new members from 2007 through 2017. 2017 full year was projected based on monthly new members up to Oct. 15. so 10,440 new members was projected for 2017. Today, 11/15, I did another projection based on last 30 days. New member projection for the year is now ~12,300. Granted,...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help deciding between Wellesley and 4 Corporate Bond Index Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1505

Re: Help deciding between Wellesley and 4 Corporate Bond Index Funds

Thank you. I'll move this to portfolio questions also. I'm 44. Married with 2 kids. Wife has a $250K 401K. Have $300K sitting in cash in a taxable account. We own a rental property that is $300 a month cash positive. I'd like to invest the $300K very conservatively - primary goal is to preserve the...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Re: Where to buy a Vanguard hat? An Update and bad news
Replies: 91
Views: 14544

Re: Where to buy a Vanguard hat? An Update and bad news

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:13 am
Too bad. They could have made up a "Make My Portfolio Great Again" hat and it would have sold like hotcakes.
:happy

What I really really want is a Boglehead cap.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Criticism of index-tracking funds is ill-directed
Replies: 3
Views: 547

Re: Criticism of index-tracking funds is ill-directed

JamesSFO wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:11 pm
Thanks for sharing!
+1

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uh-oh, small passive won't work
Replies: 4
Views: 998

Uh-oh, small passive won't work

Well, you can guess who wrote this--an active company. In this case it's TRPrice. There is some interesting facts in the report, so worth a look. TRPrice is one company that continues to fight indexing. They do have a few index offerings like S&P500, but ER is 0.23% Declining Number Of Traded U.S. E...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1456

Re: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?

Hi all. I was speaking with some people about the market today. I mentioned that I have plenty of money in US Treasuries, just in case of a market crash. I would expect a flight to safety, and an opportunity to rebalance into stocks. However, it was said that Flight to Quality is an old way of thin...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What might you ask In-laws' FA?
Replies: 37
Views: 2602

Re: What might you ask In-laws' FA?

There is no reason to go, and I wonder who suggested you attend. It smacks of an attempt to get you in there and sign you up! Is your wife using this guy? What ever the motivation, you are going to get the pitch with your in-laws on the advisors side.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio or Vanguard Target Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1045

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio or Vanguard Target Fund?

ACJC, Schwab offers some very low cost index funds, so you could just switch out of the Robo service and stay right there. https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/investment/mutual_funds/schwab_mutual_funds/equity/index Consider all accounts as parts of one, single portfolio...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this? [Change stock allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this? [Change stock allocation]

Gsnod, Taylor beat me to it, but I'll expand a bit. You didn't mention how much in assets you actually have, but a withdrawal rate of 60k/year would require 1.5M to cover it (4% safe withdrawal rate). If you are going to be close to 1.5M then you have to be careful of a bad sequence of returns start...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hope I am doing this correctly ;)
Replies: 6
Views: 994

Re: Hope I am doing this correctly ;)

Welcome Michelle,

Please list all funds at Schwab with name and ticker symbol. List by account type--taxable and IRA.

What kind of account do you have at Vanguard?

You can edit your first post by clicking on the pencil in the top right corner.

thanks,

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 720

Re: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?

I've looked into this a bit and I found that Vanguard's High-Yield fund is a pretty close comparison to Vanguard LS conservative, 40/60. HY is slightly more volatile than lifestrategy conservative, and the losses is 2008 were 19.5% for LS and 21% for HY. HY has outperformed LS conservative over the ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to move money in my 401k Don't know where.
Replies: 2
Views: 335

Re: Need to move money in my 401k Don't know where.

Welcome PJR. mhalley has give you some excellent advise and important references. Hi. I recently took more interest in my retirement planning and investing and am trying to get things organized. I was reviewing my 401k (Fidelity) in detail last week (really haven't done that) and saw something that ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Do Trend Folowing Managed Futures Increase Safe Withdrawal Rates?
Replies: 14
Views: 1016

Re: Wes Gray: Do Trend Folowing Managed Futures Increase Safe Withdrawal Rates?

Phil DeMuth wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:57 am
The real problem for investors is not risk tolerance so much as it is tracking error tolerance.
Thanks Phil, that is a good distinction.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emotions of Investing
Replies: 9
Views: 638

Re: The Emotions of Investing

I’ve seen several lectures that employ the “Cycle Of Stock Market Emotions” illustrated by Michelle Higgins in this article. Earliest was by Barry Ritholtz in 2012. Anyone know the original source for this? I wept this morning because of this week's loses in my portfolio. Dollars, oh dollars where ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1220

Re: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied

It may take some time to digest this paper and decide how applicable the conclusions are to ordinary retiree/investors such as some of us. That said, I have always been concerned that the much presentation of the LMP concept is overly simplistic and naive and may constitute more mental accounting t...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emotions of Investing
Replies: 9
Views: 638

The Emotions of Investing

Experts weight in on some of the common behaviors. WSJ, Aug 2016

https://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/08/2 ... -a-glance/


Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New member needs advice on portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 698

Re: New member needs advice on portfolio

Shellbell: am thinking of changing his 401K to 60 stocks/40 bonds. Why do you think you should be increasing your stock allocation now? How long have you been at 46/54? Are you both maxing IRA or Roth? Paul We had been 60/40 in the 401K until last month, but realized that we were in higher expense ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Having almost 90% of investments with Target Retirement account
Replies: 18
Views: 3656

Re: Having almost 90% of investments with Target Retirement account

Your portfolio is over 90% stock, which most investors cannot handle. Consider the asset allocation carefully and how you might respond to a 40% drop in assets, even if it's temporary. Just for reference, many posters here would recommend maybe 80% max in equity. Paul Your portfolio is over 90% sto...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...
Replies: 64
Views: 2664

Re: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...

Oh yeah? Do you want to have it out over 70/30 vs 75/25?
A bit of dbr humor, but neither of those allocations are correct. Obviously, 72.5% equity is the sweet spot.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New member needs advice on portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 698

Re: New member needs advice on portfolio

Shellbell:
am thinking of changing his 401K to 60 stocks/40 bonds.
Why do you think you should be increasing your stock allocation now? How long have you been at 46/54?

Are you both maxing IRA or Roth?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can go wrong with multi family syndications?
Replies: 24
Views: 2573

Re: What can go wrong with multi family syndications?

misterno: From the 1 hour meeting, I understood that the returns are extremely higher than I can believe. I was really suspicious but when I raised my concerns these 5 people which never knew each other before, assured me that returns over 10% is very common and this is cash on cash basis not even c...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7647

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

Well, this discussion certainly sets my mood for the day. Where I live it cost between $6,000 - $7,000. per month for assisted living. This is a big problem, what are Bogleheads doing about it? Paul My Mom survived my Dad and she always said that her paid off house was her long term care policy. Sh...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe investments for a declining market
Replies: 8
Views: 1211

Re: Safe investments for a declining market

Welcome stultus, I know you are not supposed to try and "time" the market, but what is a good place to put your money if you think the market is going to go on a decline? We don't advocate market timing because it actually ends up reducing your long term returns. Having said that, your asset allocat...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA access
Replies: 27
Views: 2469

Re: DFA access

Looks like the fee might be 0.67%. Still not too bad for DFA... maybe

http://www.portfolio.expert/pricing


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMDs – Best time to take during the year?
Replies: 12
Views: 1457

Re: RMDs – Best time to take during the year?

I take RMD in November to shorten the time the taxes are sitting idle. I don't wait until Dec because if there's a hang up, I want time to get it straightened out. This has happened once. In addition, one might have a better idea on where to take the distribution from near the end of the year. You c...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Open a Roth but Vanguard minimum investment too high?
Replies: 19
Views: 1002

Re: Open a Roth but Vanguard minimum investment too high?

Ragan, be sure to consider all accounts as one portfolio, that way you can optimize space and holdings. You did not provide fund names, but I doubt that your American fund in the taxable account is tax-efficient. If it's not, then you should replace with a fund that is. https://www.bogleheads.org/wi...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12914

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

DBR and DaSid,you guys are really smart and very astute investors.I have been simply trying to explain the reasons why many average investors like dividends.I am not disputing your technical correctness about dividends,blah blah blah.Most investors do not look at investing from a rigid academic,tec...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking the best asset to meet a combination of parameters
Replies: 13
Views: 962

Re: Seeking the best asset to meet a combination of parameters

Keep liquidity (say, 6-mo) and pounce next time the stock market corrects.
What is your trigger point, i.e. how far does the market have to fall before you pounce?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SIPC
Replies: 3
Views: 321

Re: SIPC

Kate and Nisiprius have motivated me to do a bit of poking around. Here's an interesting article on SIPC work.

https://www.sipc.org/

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF Retirement Strategies
Replies: 10
Views: 1109

Re: ETF Retirement Strategies

Hello, What are some investing strategies out there? So far, I have heard of: - follow closely S&P index or its equivalent, - buy target fund, like Vanguard 2035, - dual momentum. At the moment, I am attracted to dual momentum because of its background research and simplicity. I am sure there are b...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual Fund Growth Amount
Replies: 5
Views: 495

Re: Mutual Fund Growth Amount

M* chart http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VTSMX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSettingId...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Give me assurance
Replies: 14
Views: 1762

Re: Give me assurance

yes, that was partly the reasoning behind it. I do not believe in international stocks at this time. Going domestic. My stocks % of portfolio;rounded down (80/20): 26% Giant 19% Large 18% Mid 11% Small 3% Micro barring international, would you feel this is diversified enough? Your stock allocations...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with $ Investment Strategy
Replies: 7
Views: 772

Re: Need help with $ Investment Strategy

BHUN:
401K Status: Via my employer
I'm not sure what you mean by 'via the employer'. Do you contribute to this 401k?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends make up for high mutual fund fees
Replies: 31
Views: 2021

Re: Dividends make up for high mutual fund fees

investing dad: I mentioned that I felt the fees are over the top relative to performance. Said family member said the fees didn't matter because the dividend payouts are so good. I did not have a reply for that. Oh, I'll bet you did have a reply for that. :happy Is this family member now in retireme...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7647

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

Well, this discussion certainly sets my mood for the day.
Where I live it cost between $6,000 - $7,000. per month for assisted living.
This is a big problem, what are Bogleheads doing about it?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1959

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

I am trying to understand the relationship between volatility and risk as it pertains to options for different investment allocations. So those who have studied this, can you share your thoughts in the layman's terms? Is there a correlation? If so, how much of correlation is there and how do you fa...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!
Replies: 27
Views: 3524

Re: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!

Welcome eddyd, This may reflect 401K plans. Example, Fidelity run 401Ks with Vanguard shares. My point being it isn't clear to me that Fidelity and Schwab are the true beneficial owners. I agree with JamesSFO. eddyd: I am frankly shocked and disappointed. These guys can't compete with Vanguard so th...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on newest edition of “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”
Replies: 22
Views: 3093

Re: Paul Merriman on newest edition of “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”

Sleeping on what Jack Bogle wrote for a few days now. I think what Jack Bogle is saying is get super efficient with basically 2 funds. The Total Stock Market Index Fund & Total Bond Market Index Fund, (you could use the S & P 500). Pick your AA (everyone is different) he would suggest a higher tilt...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the One investment to rule them all?
Replies: 25
Views: 3274

Re: the One investment to rule them all?

Hi, lets say you are 21 years old, house paid off, yearly expenditures are 50k. you can only invest in 1 mutual fund, etf or other investment vehicle to live off for the rest of your life.. what would it be and what is the absolute minimum dollar amount you would have to put in it for it to work? T...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?
Replies: 34
Views: 2616

Re: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?

Have TIPS truly been tested yet?
Not in a rising interest rate market.

Can one really put 25-50% of their bond portfolio into TIPS comfortably?
Sure, they are good, we just don't know what the interest rate will be.

Paul