Search found 10960 matches

by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy VS IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 880

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy VS IRA

talibear, the Bogleheads strategy is pretty straight forward, but can seem overwhelming when first starting. Here are some references from you. Tax efficient fund placement. Link already provided by mhalley. Investment Policy Statement https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement 3/4 ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flagship?
Replies: 16
Views: 1635

Re: Flagship?

The use of the term, Flagship, by TRP had to be an intentional attempt to confuse or mislead customers as they were/are probably losing a lot of customers to Vanguard. I guess they will try anything except lowering fund expense ratios. Other than the references I've mentioned, I can't find any infor...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flagship?
Replies: 16
Views: 1635

Re: Flagship?

Another occurance, The fund is T. Rowe Price's flagship fund in the moderate allocation category. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031816/prwcx-overview-t-rowe-price-capital-appreciation-fund.asp I don't know if anything can be done, but I doubt Vanguard would be too happy with TRP usi...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 137
Views: 4842

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

I already told you. When bond rates are low (due to lower rates), equities perform better. When bond rates go up (due to higher rates), equities tend to suffer. A balanced portfolio has both, and the historic record clearly shows that this is a good defensive mechanism for retirees. Believe what yo...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there any hope? [Portfolio help]
Replies: 3
Views: 1070

Re: Is there any hope?

Oh yeah, there's hope. :happy Greetings Kind People, Any suggestions / recommendations would be greatly appreciated. Rude comments about my investment selection processes will also be considered. >6 months Emergency Funds in USAA Savings Account 30 year mortgage at 4.25% ($235K) No other debt Marri...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flagship?
Replies: 16
Views: 1635

Flagship?

Our flagship Retirement Funds are designed to provide you with an age-appropriate diversified portfolio that you can carry to and through retirement From Vanguard? No, from TRPrice! https://www3.troweprice.com/usis/personal-investing/mutual-funds/target-date-funds/retirement-date-funds.html?year=19...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Your Asset Allocation Reading Accurate?
Replies: 4
Views: 456

Re: Is Your Asset Allocation Reading Accurate?

Lots of funds are like you describe. Typically, a non-index stock fund will have some cash, and bond funds can hold cash as well. I look at this as the fund manager's money, not mine. It may be in cash and then not in cash. I basically ignore cash in a stock or bond fund and consider a bond fund as ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a good analogy for average returns?
Replies: 45
Views: 2626

Re: What's a good analogy for average returns?

There are average market returns and average investor returns, and they are quite different. I just finished a book by Spencer Jakab titled Heads I Win, Tails I Win, in which he talks about investors living in Lake Moneybegone, where all the women are wise, all the men are hard-working, and all the ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF
Replies: 18
Views: 1272

Re: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF

How are multiple purchases handled when converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund Admiral to Vanguard Total Stock Fund ETF? Is each purchase converted separately or are they combined? I did try to find information on the Vanguard site about this but wasn't able to do so. I am curious as to why you want ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF
Replies: 18
Views: 1272

Re: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF

Why convert from VTSAX to VTI - to move to another broker; simplify. Why combine lots - to minimize partial shares since I don't know what happens to them. I'm not sure I am going to do any of this but I want to know. You can simply transfer VTSAX to the broker you want without selling, and you can...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF
Replies: 18
Views: 1272

Re: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF

How are multiple purchases handled when converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund Admiral to Vanguard Total Stock Fund ETF? Is each purchase converted separately or are they combined? I did try to find information on the Vanguard site about this but wasn't able to do so. I am curious as to why you want ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just started a Roth IRA w/ Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 645

Re: Just started a Roth IRA w/ Vanguard

Looks pretty good, as long as you realize you are almost 50% in U.S. small. Market weight is about 10%. The small will give you lots of tracking error and periods when small does not perform as good as large. Small value is where most of the premium is. Take a look at this table https://www.fidelity...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1552

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

groovy9, 1) I tilted 8% of my portfolio to small cap value. So, I believe in small cap value premium. 2) But, OP does not understand that there will be periods where the premium will not show up. And, that is the point that I am trying to explain. KlangFool +1. And those periods can remain longer t...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback
Replies: 24
Views: 716

Re: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback

The only thing I got from what the authors said about attrition--it has been a factor in previous tests, i.e. participants stopped trading all together--was there was no appreciable attrition in their study and so it was not a factor. There also was no difference considering the four different repo...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Advisors and their fund picks
Replies: 10
Views: 980

Re: Financial Advisors and their fund picks

The reason they do it is to make it look like investing is complicated, and you need someone to help you with this thing that is basically rocket science and brain surgery combined. Also, since an active fund can often underperform its benchmark, by having you in more funds there is a better chance...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback
Replies: 24
Views: 716

Re: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback

The only thing I got from what the authors said about attrition--it has been a factor in previous tests, i.e. participants stopped trading all together--was there was no appreciable attrition in their study and so it was not a factor. There also was no difference considering the four different repor...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 4891

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

Here's a different perspective. American funds are on my list of good fund companies. Others are Vanguard, TRPrice, and Dodge and Cox. I'm sure there are others that would make my list too, but I haven't seen them yet. What makes these actively managed funds different is they all have a long term in...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review, next steps
Replies: 3
Views: 274

Re: portfolio review, next steps

Are you both working for the same company? If so, it's a huge risk. A black swan event could conceivably wipe out the 30%, plus you could be out of a job and also lose 50% of other investments. You have a lot of undiversified risk. Maybe such an event is not probable, but not impossible either.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice Please - Am I Doing This Right or Do I Need an Advisor Like All My Friends?
Replies: 19
Views: 2133

Re: Advice Please - Am I Doing This Right or Do I Need an Advisor Like All My Friends?

sourcebp, most average retail investors (us), also called the dumb money, are grossly naive about investing and they only get information from those trying to extract money from them. Here you are getting information form the not-so-dumb retail investors. Using an advisor for 1% plus average fund co...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on AA and projected FI
Replies: 12
Views: 685

Re: Thoughts on AA and projected FI

OK, that's good, and it does appear that you don't have the need for higher risk, but what happens if you use 7% for return? Using what the program describes as "below average risk" which is 7.0% return and 7.1% standard deviation, the portfolio is $2.286m. The AA there is 30/60/10 stock/...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Fund vs. Advisor
Replies: 8
Views: 628

Re: Target Fund vs. Advisor

One other option to consider is Vanguard tax-managed balanced for some of your taxable investment. It is 50/50. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0103 Don't like the included bond funds? Why is that? TR 2020 will have you at 50/50 in 3 years, then it will drop...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on AA and projected FI
Replies: 12
Views: 685

Re: Thoughts on AA and projected FI

In running the numbers in Flexible Retirement planner, I've noticed that regardless of AA, I basically hit my FI # in the year that I want with my current investments and my projected contributions. There is a spread of about $400,000 between a very conservative portfolio (20% stocks, 80% bonds) an...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Saving for Retirement (I'm 36)
Replies: 3
Views: 928

Re: Advice on Saving for Retirement (I'm 36)

Welcome, Hi Bogleheads, Looking for some advice on i) saving for retirement and ii) the best investment for cash I have sitting in a savings account. I’m 36 years old, single, no children and I have a great job working for a large company in the US. My current salary is $190,000 per year. Based on ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Forced to roll 401K to IRA. PLEASE HELP!!
Replies: 6
Views: 385

Re: Forced to roll 401K to IRA. PLEASE HELP!!

Welcome, Hello, everyone! I'm new here. A little background for you... My husband is 45 and I'm 43. My husband lost his job last year due to the aluminum smelter filing bankruptcy. We were notified that we would have to do something with his 401k which was managed by Merrill Lynch. So, we rolled it ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Index Fund Options (Allocation)
Replies: 1
Views: 187

Re: 401K Index Fund Options (Allocation)

srwitmer05, Perhaps you are already aware of this, but your portfolios have a very large overweight of mid and small. If that's what you want be aware that those portfolios will not track the total market and you will have long periods when mid/small does not provide the expected premium. Also, I th...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation fears
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Re: Inflation fears

juggleandhope, edit your post and remove the paragraph on political comment or the thread will be locked.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on AA and projected FI
Replies: 12
Views: 685

Re: Thoughts on AA and projected FI

The program assumes a 6% return with a 4.3% standard deviation for the bond heavy portfolio, and a 9.3% return with a 14.3% standard deviation on the 70/30. Inflation is the number that I chose: 1.5% with a 1.0% standard deviation I assume these are nominal returns, and I think they are too optimis...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1552

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

misterno, I agree with the above posters. If the small premium were easy to capture, there would be no premium. An investor has to hold for a long time and endure lengthy periods of underperformance, which is very hard to do when you are investing in an area for the premium in the first place. When ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to compare returns?
Replies: 5
Views: 410

Re: How to compare returns?

invest2retire, we can't asses without knowing what your portfolio actually is. Also, my guess is the returns only reflect expense ratios, not the 0.89% management fee. Have they held the same funds over the time period?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 3008

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

Tomcat wrote:
It would be the irony of ironies if behaviorial funds themselves experience severe redemption requests in times of panic, thereby causing their dismal performance.

Yessss! :D

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 3008

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

Is there a reason why staying the course is hard? Uh, yeah, people do not like to lose money. Should we assume the vast majority of people are capable of handling 40% drops in the market? No, we can assume most people cannot handle big markets drops. If the ability to stay the course is difficult, ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1552

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

Total market isn't the riskiest fund you can be in, it represents the market. Very similar to the S&P500 you now hold, except total market has a little more mid and 9% small, which S&P500 does not have. I now believe you already know all this and maybe you are looking for something else. If ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2198

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

So now CAPE is about 29, a level exceeded only in 1929 before the crash and in the period of 1998-2001 in the dot.com meltup and meltdown period. Why aren't we running toward the exits? I figure it must be that in the previous two periods, interest rates must have been much higher and bonds/fixed i...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard leaves crumbs for active fund managers
Replies: 21
Views: 2567

Re: Vanguard leaves crumbs for active fund managers

toto wrote: People flocked into indexes (relatively speaking considering the small size they were starting at) following the Tech Bubble crash. People flocked into indexes even more when the markets crashed even bigger in 2008-09. toto, I think you have it backwards. Investors who had never been in ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Monte-Carlo results and Probability of successful outcome
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: Monte-Carlo results and Probability of successful outcome

What did you use for gross withdrawal and number of years? Paul I used consumption based withdrawals based on the goals so it varies year to year based on my expenses and goals. But on average it is about 3.7% withdrawal. So approximately $380,000 withdrawal for 45 years. :thumbsup Good to go. Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talking sense
Replies: 34
Views: 2375

Re: Talking sense

Smart move, David, and your analysis is correct. You now have less need to take risk and less ability--a 50% loss would possibly cause a change in plans and goals. :sharebeer

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Closet indexing and passive killers
Replies: 4
Views: 568

Re: Closet indexing and passive killers

From the article - David Stubbs "Now you have the retaliation against passive ... In my view active managers such as our own have developed active funds that aim to beat passive, I call them passive killers," explained Stubbs. Ha-ha, what were the objectives of active funds before they cre...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talking sense
Replies: 34
Views: 2375

Re: Talking sense

David, you are 100% stock, but afraid to move into bonds because they might lose money? What's wrong with this picture? The bottom line is you should not be in 100% stocks, and bonds do not lose 50%, stocks do! Get your asset allocation down to 60 or 50% stocks and do whatever you want with the rest...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3782

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

Nedsaid, next time please let us know in advance what you are going to do. :wink:

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle's formula help
Replies: 2
Views: 575

Re: Bogle's formula help

Bogle is using 2% in total fees and 2 lost due to behavioral errors. The P/E ratio of developed markets is a bit lower than S&P500, so perhaps expected return are a little higher. You may be interested in this discussion on estimated returns. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&a...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing and had some questions
Replies: 4
Views: 237

Re: New to investing and had some questions

I regretfully haven't done much investing in my life but its time and had some questions...Based on what I have read on this forum it seems like having a simple 3-4 fund diversified portfolio is a good starting point...I am considering Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2035 Fund (VITFX) as r...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Monte-Carlo results and Probability of successful outcome
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: Monte-Carlo results and Probability of successful outcome

What did you use for gross withdrawal and number of years?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to invest- fear of crash
Replies: 58
Views: 4149

Re: When to invest- fear of crash

Paul, 60 years old. I'm not really sure how much we will "need" to withdraw in retirement, as my spouse will probably spend a lot more in retirement than now, and i don't know how much to budget for health and longterm care issues. But let's say we have 15-20x what we will need annually i...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to invest- fear of crash
Replies: 58
Views: 4149

Re: When to invest- fear of crash

I may have missed it but if the OP listed some amounts it might help determine just how conservative he can be,or not. I agree, It'smyjob, you now have told us you have 25% in the market and 5 years from retirement, and while that's helpful it's not enough to get a good picture of your situation. F...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "factor investing is more art, and less science"
Replies: 11
Views: 633

Re: "factor investing is more art, and less science"

Thanks privatefarmer, this is an interesting and thought-provoking article. David Jay & Nisiprius :thumbsup There is another good, but lengthy, article linked in the article posted by privatefarmer that is also quite interesting. It is titled: Behavioral Finance and Investing: Are you Trying Too...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]
Replies: 48
Views: 5584

Re: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]

Wapogasset, in a post above, I suggested reviewing some books by reading Taylor's gems, but there is one more must read category that I should have included--investor behavior. Behavioral errors are the #1 reason investors fail to maximize potential returns. You can start with the Wiki and then adva...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 09, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]
Replies: 48
Views: 5584

Re: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]

Everyone - thank you for the thoughtful responses. I was, admittedly, being a bit cheeky in my original post, I doesn't take much to the Bogleheads rolling. :happy Have you look at Taylor's list of gems? Click on "Taylor's Gems" and you get a good feel for what's in the book. I think he's...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]
Replies: 48
Views: 5584

Re: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]

Good discussion with some excellent input. DoubleClick wrote: Index investing is "average" by definition. If index investing is just average, why is it so good? Does it rise in the ranking over time? NO, the returns above average, due to the weight of cost and behavioral errors, start on a...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New to investing. What is real returns?
Replies: 8
Views: 828

Re: New to investing. What is real returns?

Real returns means that the returns are adjusted for inflation. ie. if an investment returns 4%, but inflation was 1%, the real return is 3%. Investment returns generally include reinvested distributions. Thanks Sport. How does one track inflation? Does one need to readjust their portfolio if the i...

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