Search found 10978 matches

by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 121
Views: 6259

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

decarste: The whole point of the thread was to rethink your risk profile, and just double check - based on your probably much larger portfolio balance - whether you can stomach a 30% drawdown - which came with an allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds Getting one's risk profile correct is of major i...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is my Boglehead Progress going??
Replies: 4
Views: 472

Re: How is my Boglehead Progress going??

Hello! I spend way too much time on this site but I have learned so much over the past 6 months. I would love it if people could look over the progress I am making and see if there is anything I am overlooking, mistakes I am potentially making or something that could be improved. I am also interest...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put bonds with only a Taxable Account & IRAs?
Replies: 7
Views: 552

Re: Where to put bonds with only a Taxable Account & IRAs?

I don't know if Vanguard's tax-manged balanced fund (49/51) would help you out, but it may be a considered option in taxable.

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/ ... ture=en-US

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... undId=0103


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Churchill Management
Replies: 7
Views: 492

Re: Churchill Management

Milosax, how are they protecting the downside? By going to cash at the right time?

What is your asset allocation?

Do they have you in ETFs, funds, or individual stocks?

Can list your holdings?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard
Replies: 22
Views: 2276

Re: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard

So many posts either terrified of valuation or asking permission to ramp up equity exposure. Folks, being a boglehead is simple, but its REALLY REALLY hard. It is BECAUSE tuning out the noise and doing nothing is so hard that it is so effective. Stay the course. The first type of posts you mention ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 18
Views: 1262

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

... And before you correct me again :happy I will add that there is no clear evidence that Disraeli said it. But it does appear that Mark Twain (Samuel Langhorne Clemens) did say it. ... And that he attributed it to the good Prime Minister. And he never lied exaggerated. :happy Nonetheless, my poin...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 18
Views: 1262

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Questionable quotes from PM D'israeli and dubious assertions by Taleb aside, there are correct assumptions of normal distributions, and incorrect assumptions of normal distributions. That's all there is to see here. PJW Thanks, you are right about the quote. The term was popularized in United State...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are they trying to sell me here?
Replies: 27
Views: 2409

Re: What are they trying to sell me here?

They are also probably taking you to a place for the presentation where you cannot easily walk out. Are they offering transportation, or are you driving yourself?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard
Replies: 22
Views: 2276

Re: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard

It works because of the cost advantage. It doesn't work because of behavioral mistakes. Three simple words, "stay the course," but following those words is not easy.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 18
Views: 1262

The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

The 100 year flood that isn't. I'm putting this post in theory because it's not so much about a flood as it is about statistics. San Jose, CA is dealing with a serious flood that reflects the results of a 100 year flood, but the conditions that lead to these results were not considered a 100 year fl...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1303

Re: "High conviction investing"

Thanks Nisiprius, good bit of detective work. I noticed all four of the funds have an ER above 0.8% with Gabelli topping out at 1.42%. The Invesco fund has actually done quite well and has slightly outperformed the S&P500 over a 10 year period, but not over the last 3 years as you show. The Inve...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 121
Views: 6259

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Freyj6: Until very recently, I had about 15% VBR and 15% VOE allocation. Over the past month, I've slowly overbalanced completely out of VBR and into short term bonds, along with slight overbalancing out of other funds. Overall, I've reduced my stock allocation by about 20%. Overbalancing? That's di...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just turned 30, want to make a lazy investment folio via Charles Schwab. Advice needed...
Replies: 4
Views: 555

Re: Just turned 30, want to make a lazy investment folio via Charles Schwab. Advice needed...

My suggestion would be one of Schwab's new target date index funds, which have a low expense ratio of 0.13% and a minimum purchase of $100. These are a good way to start because they have ETFs in U.S., International, Emerging Markets and Bonds. Decide on the asset allocation you want and then pick t...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1303

Re: "High conviction investing"

I think Nisiprius has it right, but here's an explanation. I think it means managers with high conviction actually have faith in what they are buying and they hold on. The other 80% don't do anything except act like an index fund. Sounds like the high active share idea that didn't fly. This data sug...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 121
Views: 6259

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

dcarste wrote: I do know it goes against almost all people here on their investment philosophy. I just don't want people who are close to or in retirement to get hurt and panic - just as I saw so many of my older friends get screwed in 2000 and 2008. It just seems so many people over-estimate their ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Market Surveillance System
Replies: 3
Views: 476

Re: New Market Surveillance System

I guess one question I have is does this do anything for available information and market efficiency?

This explanation of the EMH by Aswath Damodaran is one of the best I've seen.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/Ne ... ffdefn.htm

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing biases and genetics
Replies: 2
Views: 217

Re: Investing biases and genetics

Larry, link goes to pg 2.

Thanks for posting the article. Anything on behavior is always interesting.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Market Surveillance System
Replies: 3
Views: 476

New Market Surveillance System

Nov. 15, 2016 The Securities and Exchange Commission today voted to approve a national market system (NMS) plan to create a single, comprehensive database known as the consolidated audit trail (CAT) that will enable regulators to more efficiently and thoroughly track all trading activity in the U.S....
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy VS IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 1041

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy VS IRA

talibear, the Bogleheads strategy is pretty straight forward, but can seem overwhelming when first starting. Here are some references from you. Tax efficient fund placement. Link already provided by mhalley. Investment Policy Statement https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement 3/4 ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flagship? [T. Rowe Price retirement funds]
Replies: 20
Views: 2151

Re: Flagship?

The use of the term, Flagship, by TRP had to be an intentional attempt to confuse or mislead customers as they were/are probably losing a lot of customers to Vanguard. I guess they will try anything except lowering fund expense ratios. Other than the references I've mentioned, I can't find any infor...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flagship? [T. Rowe Price retirement funds]
Replies: 20
Views: 2151

Re: Flagship?

Another occurance, The fund is T. Rowe Price's flagship fund in the moderate allocation category. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031816/prwcx-overview-t-rowe-price-capital-appreciation-fund.asp I don't know if anything can be done, but I doubt Vanguard would be too happy with TRP usi...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 215
Views: 8886

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

I already told you. When bond rates are low (due to lower rates), equities perform better. When bond rates go up (due to higher rates), equities tend to suffer. A balanced portfolio has both, and the historic record clearly shows that this is a good defensive mechanism for retirees. Believe what yo...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there any hope? [Portfolio help]
Replies: 4
Views: 1264

Re: Is there any hope?

Oh yeah, there's hope. :happy Greetings Kind People, Any suggestions / recommendations would be greatly appreciated. Rude comments about my investment selection processes will also be considered. >6 months Emergency Funds in USAA Savings Account 30 year mortgage at 4.25% ($235K) No other debt Marri...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 19, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flagship? [T. Rowe Price retirement funds]
Replies: 20
Views: 2151

Flagship? [T. Rowe Price retirement funds]

Our flagship Retirement Funds are designed to provide you with an age-appropriate diversified portfolio that you can carry to and through retirement From Vanguard? No, from TRPrice! https://www3.troweprice.com/usis/personal-investing/mutual-funds/target-date-funds/retirement-date-funds.html?year=19...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Your Asset Allocation Reading Accurate?
Replies: 4
Views: 463

Re: Is Your Asset Allocation Reading Accurate?

Lots of funds are like you describe. Typically, a non-index stock fund will have some cash, and bond funds can hold cash as well. I look at this as the fund manager's money, not mine. It may be in cash and then not in cash. I basically ignore cash in a stock or bond fund and consider a bond fund as ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a good analogy for average returns?
Replies: 45
Views: 2682

Re: What's a good analogy for average returns?

There are average market returns and average investor returns, and they are quite different. I just finished a book by Spencer Jakab titled Heads I Win, Tails I Win, in which he talks about investors living in Lake Moneybegone, where all the women are wise, all the men are hard-working, and all the ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF
Replies: 18
Views: 1304

Re: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF

How are multiple purchases handled when converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund Admiral to Vanguard Total Stock Fund ETF? Is each purchase converted separately or are they combined? I did try to find information on the Vanguard site about this but wasn't able to do so. I am curious as to why you want ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF
Replies: 18
Views: 1304

Re: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF

Why convert from VTSAX to VTI - to move to another broker; simplify. Why combine lots - to minimize partial shares since I don't know what happens to them. I'm not sure I am going to do any of this but I want to know. You can simply transfer VTSAX to the broker you want without selling, and you can...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF
Replies: 18
Views: 1304

Re: converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund to ETF

How are multiple purchases handled when converting Vanguard Total Stock Fund Admiral to Vanguard Total Stock Fund ETF? Is each purchase converted separately or are they combined? I did try to find information on the Vanguard site about this but wasn't able to do so. I am curious as to why you want ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just started a Roth IRA w/ Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 654

Re: Just started a Roth IRA w/ Vanguard

Looks pretty good, as long as you realize you are almost 50% in U.S. small. Market weight is about 10%. The small will give you lots of tracking error and periods when small does not perform as good as large. Small value is where most of the premium is. Take a look at this table https://www.fidelity...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

groovy9, 1) I tilted 8% of my portfolio to small cap value. So, I believe in small cap value premium. 2) But, OP does not understand that there will be periods where the premium will not show up. And, that is the point that I am trying to explain. KlangFool +1. And those periods can remain longer t...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback
Replies: 37
Views: 1387

Re: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback

The only thing I got from what the authors said about attrition--it has been a factor in previous tests, i.e. participants stopped trading all together--was there was no appreciable attrition in their study and so it was not a factor. There also was no difference considering the four different repo...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Advisors and their fund picks
Replies: 10
Views: 999

Re: Financial Advisors and their fund picks

The reason they do it is to make it look like investing is complicated, and you need someone to help you with this thing that is basically rocket science and brain surgery combined. Also, since an active fund can often underperform its benchmark, by having you in more funds there is a better chance...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback
Replies: 37
Views: 1387

Re: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback

The only thing I got from what the authors said about attrition--it has been a factor in previous tests, i.e. participants stopped trading all together--was there was no appreciable attrition in their study and so it was not a factor. There also was no difference considering the four different repor...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 5000

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

Here's a different perspective. American funds are on my list of good fund companies. Others are Vanguard, TRPrice, and Dodge and Cox. I'm sure there are others that would make my list too, but I haven't seen them yet. What makes these actively managed funds different is they all have a long term in...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review, next steps
Replies: 3
Views: 279

Re: portfolio review, next steps

Are you both working for the same company? If so, it's a huge risk. A black swan event could conceivably wipe out the 30%, plus you could be out of a job and also lose 50% of other investments. You have a lot of undiversified risk. Maybe such an event is not probable, but not impossible either.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice Please - Am I Doing This Right or Do I Need an Advisor Like All My Friends?
Replies: 20
Views: 2421

Re: Advice Please - Am I Doing This Right or Do I Need an Advisor Like All My Friends?

sourcebp, most average retail investors (us), also called the dumb money, are grossly naive about investing and they only get information from those trying to extract money from them. Here you are getting information form the not-so-dumb retail investors. Using an advisor for 1% plus average fund co...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on AA and projected FI
Replies: 12
Views: 689

Re: Thoughts on AA and projected FI

OK, that's good, and it does appear that you don't have the need for higher risk, but what happens if you use 7% for return? Using what the program describes as "below average risk" which is 7.0% return and 7.1% standard deviation, the portfolio is $2.286m. The AA there is 30/60/10 stock/...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Fund vs. Advisor
Replies: 8
Views: 636

Re: Target Fund vs. Advisor

One other option to consider is Vanguard tax-managed balanced for some of your taxable investment. It is 50/50. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0103 Don't like the included bond funds? Why is that? TR 2020 will have you at 50/50 in 3 years, then it will drop...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on AA and projected FI
Replies: 12
Views: 689

Re: Thoughts on AA and projected FI

In running the numbers in Flexible Retirement planner, I've noticed that regardless of AA, I basically hit my FI # in the year that I want with my current investments and my projected contributions. There is a spread of about $400,000 between a very conservative portfolio (20% stocks, 80% bonds) an...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Saving for Retirement (I'm 36)
Replies: 3
Views: 1020

Re: Advice on Saving for Retirement (I'm 36)

Welcome, Hi Bogleheads, Looking for some advice on i) saving for retirement and ii) the best investment for cash I have sitting in a savings account. I’m 36 years old, single, no children and I have a great job working for a large company in the US. My current salary is $190,000 per year. Based on ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Forced to roll 401K to IRA. PLEASE HELP!!
Replies: 6
Views: 388

Re: Forced to roll 401K to IRA. PLEASE HELP!!

Welcome, Hello, everyone! I'm new here. A little background for you... My husband is 45 and I'm 43. My husband lost his job last year due to the aluminum smelter filing bankruptcy. We were notified that we would have to do something with his 401k which was managed by Merrill Lynch. So, we rolled it ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Index Fund Options (Allocation)
Replies: 1
Views: 190

Re: 401K Index Fund Options (Allocation)

srwitmer05, Perhaps you are already aware of this, but your portfolios have a very large overweight of mid and small. If that's what you want be aware that those portfolios will not track the total market and you will have long periods when mid/small does not provide the expected premium. Also, I th...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation fears
Replies: 16
Views: 1397

Re: Inflation fears

juggleandhope, edit your post and remove the paragraph on political comment or the thread will be locked.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on AA and projected FI
Replies: 12
Views: 689

Re: Thoughts on AA and projected FI

The program assumes a 6% return with a 4.3% standard deviation for the bond heavy portfolio, and a 9.3% return with a 14.3% standard deviation on the 70/30. Inflation is the number that I chose: 1.5% with a 1.0% standard deviation I assume these are nominal returns, and I think they are too optimis...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

misterno, I agree with the above posters. If the small premium were easy to capture, there would be no premium. An investor has to hold for a long time and endure lengthy periods of underperformance, which is very hard to do when you are investing in an area for the premium in the first place. When ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to compare returns?
Replies: 5
Views: 410

Re: How to compare returns?

invest2retire, we can't asses without knowing what your portfolio actually is. Also, my guess is the returns only reflect expense ratios, not the 0.89% management fee. Have they held the same funds over the time period?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 3037

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

Tomcat wrote:
It would be the irony of ironies if behaviorial funds themselves experience severe redemption requests in times of panic, thereby causing their dismal performance.

Yessss! :D

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 3037

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

Is there a reason why staying the course is hard? Uh, yeah, people do not like to lose money. Should we assume the vast majority of people are capable of handling 40% drops in the market? No, we can assume most people cannot handle big markets drops. If the ability to stay the course is difficult, ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

Total market isn't the riskiest fund you can be in, it represents the market. Very similar to the S&P500 you now hold, except total market has a little more mid and 9% small, which S&P500 does not have. I now believe you already know all this and maybe you are looking for something else. If ...

Go to advanced search