Search found 2105 matches

by patrick013
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me with arguments for/against actively managed...
Replies: 34
Views: 1441

Re: Please help me with arguments for/against actively managed...

I know of a midcap value fund that takes a large midcap value index and filters it even further for price/sales and limits it to 200 stocks. Has he made a profit ? Yes and no like everybody else. So the guesswork begins. Should you sell a stock at a 20% gain for the fund ? If you do it goes up 40% a...
by patrick013
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees In Search For Portfolio Diversifiers
Replies: 9
Views: 819

Re: Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees In Search For Portfolio Diversifiers

I think all index like funds will have their day. More to it than just stats. LC will reign then MC and SC then momentum then dividends will reappear with SC's waiting for LC's to have a super decade again. Good companies always have crazy prices at the end of a bull market regardless of the factor,...
by patrick013
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Open Office Calc problem
Replies: 15
Views: 863

Re: Open Office Calc problem

Reply: It sounds to me like you need to change the setting at Tools -> Options -> OpenOffice Calc -> General -> Input settings -> Expand references when new rows/columns are inserted Also there's an option to Update Links (should be set to Always) but I think you might need to hit F9. I'm surprised...
by patrick013
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed

Hey guys, thanks again for the advice. I have updated the funds available for my wife's 401k. .... I can slowly increase our contributions towards maxing out our 403b and 401k. 401k: WF/BlackRock S&P 500 Index CIT N5 Domestic Stock SP500N5 0.08 If you go with the 3-fund here's a common AA. 50% tota...
by patrick013
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3628

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

But the point is that it is not legitimate to use pre-1870 data to prove the straightness of the line going back to 1802 if the data from 1802-1870 is price only and is based on one, single, overall estimate for dividends over the entire period. The line segment from 1802 to 1870 is going to bend d...
by patrick013
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any aggressive index funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 3019

Re: Any aggressive index funds in your portfolio?

http://i66.tinypic.com/20uxzjc.jpg My latest and probably where I'll set assuming rates will rise somewhat and stock profits and valuations will stall. But overall a good AA beta-wise. Alpha components mid and small cap and beta components bond funds (even BSV possibly). I can see this AA lasting m...
by patrick013
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3628

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

Image

My contribution to the museum of stock prices.
Mostly Rails and very volatile looks like to me.

Right-click "view image" to enlarge for a better view.
by patrick013
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA
Replies: 87
Views: 6636

Re: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA

Invest in tax-deferred if the marginal tax rate in retirement is expected to be less. That's the problem. Half of the people don't know what their post-retirement tax rate will be including pensions, annuities, social security etc.. Otherwise the tax-deferral is nice but if you can afford it the Rot...
by patrick013
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Forecast Center
Replies: 2
Views: 460

Re: Financial Forecast Center

No but they have a few things I might use.
by patrick013
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed

How does one evaluate the debt when it is denominated in a different currency and changes in fx rate have more impact than small changes in nominal interest, I have a similar situation to OP (earn USD debt GBP) and always found it a bit confusing? Particularly when the horizon for debt repayment is...
by patrick013
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed

10% TIAA-CREF Short-Term Bond Fund (Institutional) TISIX 0.27 20% TIAA-CREF Bond Index Fund (Institutional) TBIIX 0.12 15% TIAA-CREF Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund (Institutional) TEQLX 0.21 5% TIAA-CREF International Equity Index Fund (Institutional) TCIEX 0.06 30% TIAA-CREF S&P 500 Index Fund ...
by patrick013
Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Interest Rate information
Replies: 7
Views: 1149

Re: Current Interest Rate information

What were the CBO forecasts in prior years and how did they work out? I found the 2012 version of the report online. As an example, it projects the following: Interest Rates (Percent) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Three-month Treasury bills 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.6 3.2 ...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Interest Rate information
Replies: 7
Views: 1149

Current Interest Rate information

http://i63.tinypic.com/fqjus.jpg Many people don't rely very much on forecasts but here is the current Congressional Budget Office's outlook and forecast. Could be a buyer's market for treasury bonds in the 2020's barring an economic collapse of some kind. Here's the full report. April 2018 CBO rep...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed

Thanks for the advice. I have been reading the guides and your links which were helpful. From what I understand from the guide, I am still working on step 4, towards our goal to contribute to the maximum allowed to our 403b/401ks. As my student debt is low interest I should just be paying the minim...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 9179

Re: I’m looking for a word...

re-equilibration, based on the value of new information
by patrick013
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs
Replies: 13
Views: 1194

Re: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs

I will consider CDs too. But if the after tax return are the same, my preference would be to go with treasuries because I prefer to keep my MAGI low. Federal Farm Credit Banks and Federal Home Loan Banks are 2 bonds that are state tax-exempt also. Probably one or 2 other GSE's. Actually you could d...
by patrick013
Sun Apr 08, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the co-dependence between big tech and passive and algorithmic investing could cause far more pain
Replies: 4
Views: 650

Re: Why the co-dependence between big tech and passive and algorithmic investing could cause far more pain

Momentum trading slowing down it sounds like to me. With market declines... Algorithmic companies want to show investors big research so they can re-allocate factors like one would do sector rotation in a business cycle but with factors. And heighten marketing awareness and profits as well. That typ...
by patrick013
Sun Apr 08, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 9179

Re: I’m looking for a word...

based on statistical facts:

"information dissemination efficiency"


I don't think there's one word that describes it.
by patrick013
Sun Apr 08, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Starting investment/retirement planning advice needed

Welcome.

If you haven't read The Boglehead Guide you should.

If you have a low fee Total Stock Market fund it is always
a good investment. TIAA fees look a bit high.

These always help :
Investment Priorities

Tax-efficient Fund Placement
by patrick013
Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you want an actively managed fund, which one would you use?
Replies: 68
Views: 3979

Re: If you want an actively managed fund, which one would you use?

I am trying to use mostly passive index funds for most of my portfolio. However, if you were to add one actively managed fund to your mix which one would it be? Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund (VSEQX) which is a 303 stock mid/small cap fund. Reminds me of ticker SPMD which reflects the S&P 1000 inde...
by patrick013
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs
Replies: 13
Views: 1194

Re: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs

Model CD Ladders - Fidelity

The CD autoroll reinvests back to the length of the ladder.
No waiting for the next auction. Rates with treasuries
are comparable or better.
by patrick013
Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs
Replies: 13
Views: 1194

Re: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs

indexfundfan wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:10 am
I'm considering starting a 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs at Fidelity.
It looks like one of the most worry free repurchase plans I've seen.
The 3 year CD plan looks very good too.
by patrick013
Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Calculator
Replies: 20
Views: 1641

Re: Bond Index Calculator

Could you release the password ? Can't add annual data without it. I like to keep it moderately protected so that I can stand behind the calculations by preventing multiple versions from floating around. But I also like to make things useful. I updated the spredsheet so that you can change the star...
by patrick013
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Calculator
Replies: 20
Views: 1641

Re: Bond Index Calculator

Tyler9000 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:00 am
But I do like that it's simple, flexible, and demonstrably matches known good returns reasonably well.
Could you release the password ? Can't add annual data without it.

Thanks.
by patrick013
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Calculator
Replies: 20
Views: 1641

Re: Bond Index Calculator

Regardless of what data sources you personally prefer (there are lots of great resources on this board), I hope you find this useful. If anyone has any suggestions for improvements all feedback is welcome. So if I knew or projected the TRSY10 interest rate for 2018, 2019, and 2020 and estimated the...
by patrick013
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything that Has Great Long Term Returns but Is Underperforming In the Current Cycle?
Replies: 7
Views: 975

Re: Anything that Has Great Long Term Returns but Is Underperforming In the Current Cycle?

One thing I can come up with now is EM stocks. Any other ideas? Vanguard is always in favor of Intl's. Other sources look favorably at EM in particular. Next week a new Congressional Budget Outlook will be released which will show current government projections. Hopefully they will confirm the 3% F...
by patrick013
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is absolute momentum market timing ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1482

Re: Is absolute momentum market timing ?

Do you consider absolute momentum as market timing ? Or is it just a momentum strategy ? Investing in that way, I don't think I am trying to time the market but only investing in the strongest asset between bonds and stocks... Well if the index says 5 years past growth and 5 years future growth pro...
by patrick013
Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any seasoned advisors to discuss best sectors/mutual funds for market out-performance?
Replies: 93
Views: 4420

Re: Any seasoned advisors to discuss best sectors/mutual funds for market out-performance?

One active manager who likes index funds likes them because
it takes the guess work out of what to do. What to buy, when
to buy, when to sell, etc.. Whether it be price/sales or sustained
growth rate it's accounted for in the index selection. Done.
by patrick013
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

One of the most statistically significant variables affecting
the price of the 500 is the level of dividends paid. Certainly
has accounted for some price appreciation if the variable
increased in gross dollars from a statistical sense.
by patrick013
Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the specific "risks not reflected in volatility" of factor investing?
Replies: 10
Views: 603

Re: What are the specific "risks not reflected in volatility" of factor investing?

statistical risk : Finding a complex structure of regressions that give very good results in-sample but have no real forecasting power. In other words we can see factor returns in 30 year studies if the factors are isolated to do so but aren't most stocks overbought and overvalued at the end of the ...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA - market timing vs. small adjustments vs buy and hold
Replies: 36
Views: 1760

Re: AA - market timing vs. small adjustments vs buy and hold

How do others deal with the risk that future returns might be small or negative, but also need to keep up with inflation? Many people like a 50-50 AA in retirement. Bonds could get screwed CD's would be better. 3-5 year ladder. Stocks should have some return but could be small could be OK, can't te...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

No problem. When rates peak I want a 10% tilt with ticker SPHD for lack of a better fund that complies with the specifications of O'S's research. Why do you think the Great Man Himself did not use straight dividend yield as a metric for his dividend fund since he is intimately familiar with the dat...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

I am not a harsh critic of dividend yield oriented investors. I understand what they are trying to do and understand behavioral reasons supporting it. If one must go down that path I believe a dividend fund needs to be diversified by sector and have low turnover. The FTSE High Dividend Yield Index ...
by patrick013
Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

VYM didn't beat the 500. A dividend tilt should want the higher yield. Most dividend yield oriented strategies are not going to beat the S&P 500 over the longterm. Well you have to read the studies. Some go back 50-60 years with the same results. The figures I provided are from the S&P website whic...
by patrick013
Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

A 3.0% yield puts one at middle of Q2 (2.5%) and Q1 (3.5%) dividend yield quintile breakpoints, which is where these funds usually end up. That is the sweet spot. What is the purpose of a dividend factor fund ? Sometimes you have to go where the yield is and that is where it is. Cap weighting is fu...
by patrick013
Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

The yield is the metric in studies that have the highest total return. Taking out special dividend payments (tax penalty avoidance dividends) is almost always done by most funds which leaves the fund with stocks with an acceptable overall payout ratio. Yield or equal weighting has the most success....
by patrick013
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

Funds with better construction methodology in terms of diversification, lower turnover and quality are VYM and SCHD. The yield is the metric in studies that have the highest total return. Taking out special dividend payments (tax penalty avoidance dividends) is almost always done by most funds whic...
by patrick013
Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

Actually most dividend stock funds have less volatility measures than non or low dividend payers. Dividend growers should maintain yield to cost thru a rising interest rate period but who knows ? Stable or rising dividends are a sign of earnings quality in that case which helps in price appreciation...
by patrick013
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just bought my first Treasury Bill...
Replies: 7
Views: 1191

Re: Just bought my first Treasury Bill...

If you look in Barron's they have the auction yields based
on bids actually on record if the auction was held at the
time of print.

Short term rates have risen the last few months.
by patrick013
Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Engineered Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1807

Re: Engineered Portfolio

http://i68.tinypic.com/2m3ikg7.png Their work is kinda impressive even tho they are averaging around alot of numbers and if they are really using an optimization config. The above is alot more basic. Their upper bounds are 20% for each asset class. The above can go from 10-90% for each asset class....
by patrick013
Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Engineered Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1807

Re: Engineered Portfolio

I think they're doing 5 times more work than needed but the
data seems reliable, etc.. Expected returns are after inflation
which adds another estimate to the mix.
by patrick013
Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuations: CAPE vs the FED model (used by Buffett)
Replies: 19
Views: 1793

Re: Market valuations: CAPE vs the FED model (used by Buffett)

I think the A rated corp bond yield has a higher correlation to the historical stock index earnings yield than the BBB corp bond yield. Hard to get data. Yardeni - do you have a web address for that ? Thanks for the response. Yardeni model is his website: https://www.yardeni.com/ His website says t...
by patrick013
Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuations: CAPE vs the FED model (used by Buffett)
Replies: 19
Views: 1793

Re: Market valuations: CAPE vs the FED model (used by Buffett)

I am strong believer of Fed model. Dr Yardeni modified Fed model uses investment grade corporate bond yield with growth discount to compare with market earning yield, this model also points out the market is cheap now. I think the A rated corp bond yield has a higher correlation to the historical s...
by patrick013
Sun Mar 25, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Effects of Credit Duration on Portfolio Risk
Replies: 9
Views: 480

Re: The Effects of Credit Duration on Portfolio Risk

I'm not an expert at duration using maturity and spreads for most calculations. So I think duration is a little hoakey. Here's some paraphrase from a finance text that goes into it a little further than I am normally accustomed to. A 10 year zero vs a 20 year bond. "Immunization: If you need funds t...
by patrick013
Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 9179

Re: I’m looking for a word...

a posteriori

Something that is known a posteriori is known based on logic that is derived from experience.
by patrick013
Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3795

Re: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds

However, the coming rate increases are already priced in. If pricing was efficient the yield on the 10 year TRSY would be way over 3%. I don't think the market believes the rate increases will actually happen. That doesn't imply inefficiency. An efficient market is one where information is widely d...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3795

Re: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds

I think EMH is geared towards mutual funds but the EMT is a very comfortable unified approach I want to continue. Hypothesis vs Theory ? Don't know. IIRC Fischer Black, Nobel winner, said that the markets look efficient from the bank of Cambridge, where he taught at MIT, but less efficient from the...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuations: CAPE vs the FED model (used by Buffett)
Replies: 19
Views: 1793

Re: Market valuations: CAPE vs the FED model (used by Buffett)

So which model do you prefer and why? Comparing the earnings yield of stocks to the BBB bond yield or even the Prime has some revelations. Although slow to react the earnings yield of stocks heads towards them over time. When yields change and/or meet the process seems complete. This equilibrium pr...
by patrick013
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Federal Reserve hikes interest rate]
Replies: 34
Views: 4054

Re: Fed raises the fed rate, markets do not look efficient

What is your definition of the word efficient in capital market contexts? The market has a continuous information structure. Everyday it receives information. Everyday it barters based on that information and the level of demand. In that respect the market is efficient. Sometimes slow I think to ar...
by patrick013
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Federal Reserve hikes interest rate]
Replies: 34
Views: 4054

Re: Fed raises the fed rate, markets do not look efficient

The market has to believe the increases are going to happen and the increases have to remain in place for the longer term rates to benefit. Right now at 2.9% the 10 year TRSY is at a 1.15% spread over the key target FFR set today, right around it's average mean spread. Where or what the other future...