Search found 2010 matches

by patrick013
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 371

Re: Risk Parity Investing

Image

How can you get more risk/reward with bond yields up and all

estimates for stocks and Intl good but not super ?

So prior stock yields can be cut in half as future estimates.
by patrick013
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The CFA Designation
Replies: 17
Views: 2374

Re: The CFA Designation

Even some of their "hypotheses" are different than standard financial principles taught in the states. First, can you give an example? Second, why does it matter that it is not "academic credits or licensing qualifications". Nor does the CFP or many other licenses. First of all the CFP, Series 65, ...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best book/study course for Series 65 Exam?
Replies: 6
Views: 578

Re: Best book/study course for Series 65 Exam?

venkman wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:49 pm
I used Pass the 65 by Robert Walker
Anything to streamline the law section, the Kaplan is a much bigger book.
Glad it worked out.
by patrick013
Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The CFA Designation
Replies: 17
Views: 2374

Re: The CFA Designation

The CFA can be hard or impossible for people without a Finance degree. One shouldn't be fooled by their behavioristic justification of just about everything. Even some of their "hypotheses" are different than standard financial principles taught in the states. Almost like an undesirable epidemic. Us...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best book/study course for Series 65 Exam?
Replies: 6
Views: 578

Re: Best book/study course for Series 65 Exam?

The Kaplan Series 65 Manual is a big book. Probably needs
some revisions for the new tax law.
by patrick013
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)
Replies: 13
Views: 1021

Re: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/smallcapexport.png Hard to find over 20 years of history on the S&P indexes. Russell's mid-cap is doing better than it's big small cap index. Probably oversized a bit. Interesting on the midcap space. As we know, there's a risk premium for SCV and ...
by patrick013
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The CFA Designation
Replies: 17
Views: 2374

Re: The CFA Designation

Compared to a common finance degree it's kind of an overkill. Has more on financial econometrics and hedging where a fundamental approach would be more interesting. Whether it's expansion on financial statistics will increase profits can be distracting as only a few metrics are really used for stock...
by patrick013
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large/Small/Mid cap correlation
Replies: 5
Views: 514

Re: Large/Small/Mid cap correlation

I don't hear about it anymore but some people would invest in a small cap fund with high price beta after a market correction. A good entry point like that would give the investment the benefit of a higher beta and when the market turns up again very good performance to start a long term buy and hol...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 100
Views: 5485

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Regarding your question of the bass octaves... Many songs play chords on the guitar and then play the solo at a higher octave position. The bass would play his line at a lower octave then play a few notes at a higher octave to reinforce the beat or melody or as part of a crescendo. Or just to show ...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs
Replies: 93
Views: 4892

Re: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs

Had a dwarf Royalton cherry tree. Plenty of big cherries
and no pests. Only 5 foot tall.

Had a green apple tree as tall as a 2 story house. Have to
spray it every couple of years or the bugs take over.

Vegetables have alot of weeds. Weeds like fertilizer too I
guess.
by patrick013
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)
Replies: 13
Views: 1021

Re: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)

I've seen the posts with the Russell concerns. I've read how SP600 has beaten russell 2000 by a good % the last 10-20 years. I wonder why that is? Do most think that trend will continue? I really do prefer the smaller SP600 value but I don't think I mind the diversity of having SCV in SP600, Russel...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equity Dividend Fund / ETF at Schwab?
Replies: 20
Views: 2267

Re: Equity Dividend Fund / ETF at Schwab?

If I were going to do this I would probably use multiple ETF's. Such as SCHD, VYM, DVY. I wouldn't buy alot of SPHD or SPYD when interest is rising while the market is correcting at the same time. A little sad they have REIT's in the fund as some in the below do not. Either could yield on cost 5% i...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Guidance
Replies: 14
Views: 1323

Re: Portfolio Guidance

WonderingWanderer wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:53 pm
I am new to the forum and to the concepts. I am fully on board with buy and hold and with low expense ratios without management fees, though.
The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

Read this in your spare time - not very expensive.
by patrick013
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7464

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

Markets price risk and I gotta believe any differences between the riskiness of our markets and foreign markets are already reflected in the prices. And lower prices and valuations imply higher perceived risk and higher expected return. Dave Perhaps but they might just as well be a value trap highl...
by patrick013
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7464

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

Patrick013, Don’t you think all the risks you mention are already incorporated into prices? Dave Definitely not. Especially as he's using operating PE's again. Wonder why for that ? Looking at all the coins in the box to put money in for safety SE Asia is the best coin in the box IMO even if actual...
by patrick013
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7464

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

I think Larry's reasoning is weak for foreign investing. Based on statistical and behavioral bias only, as well as his PE's are not accurate or are based on operating PE's only. Not good. When you think of all the risk in foreign investing is bias really that bad ? Currency risk, freezing assets, bo...
by patrick013
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 142
Views: 11130

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

Consider this. If you bought Verizon for a 4.7% yield on cost for the foreseeable future or a dividend fund which yields over 4% excluding special dividends would that be more reliable than buying TSM today (VTI) which could correct another 10% or more in the foreseeable future ? I wouldn't buy a yi...
by patrick013
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Guidance
Replies: 14
Views: 1323

Re: Portfolio Guidance

Thank you again, Patrick 013. The link you shared is good to keep in front of me while trying to do this. If LC is large cap, MC is mid-cap, and SC is Small Cap, are these all covered with a single Total Stock Market fund? Or perhaps one for US and one for International? It seems odd to hope to hav...
by patrick013
Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1185

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/2fundrecession.png Negative correlation increased in 2008. High Yield was no doubt strongly correlated. Investment grade corporates should recover in 2008 but problem there is potential defaults in the financial sector due to ratings that changed o...
by patrick013
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal Parts Small, Mid, Large Cap Indexes
Replies: 61
Views: 4616

Re: Equal Parts Small, Mid, Large Cap Indexes

Image



Here's some current returns, the last 2 years.
by patrick013
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Guidance
Replies: 14
Views: 1323

Re: Portfolio Guidance

Tax-efficient Fund Placement Other than having too many funds with high expense ratios fund placement could be better. My 2 favorite bond funds would be ticker BSV and BIV which are very low fee at Vanguard. :) What would you switch to when closing out high fee funds in taxable ? A LC like TSM, a M...
by patrick013
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Magazine
Replies: 15
Views: 1500

Re: Barron's Magazine

It has been downsized a bit but I guess paper is expensive.

The analysts have some good analysis but I think the level
would be for finance grads.

Pertinent economic indicators are available.
by patrick013
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1185

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

If we could sin for a moment and call beta a dynamic correlation in the sense that it goes over 1 plus or minus.... 5 year beta's are for practical use at 0 for the bond funds I've looked at. So 50-50 stocks and bonds ends up with a beta slightly over .50 Trsy's usually have price advantage in a dow...
by patrick013
Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 103
Views: 4896

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

If a broker told me now is not a good time to be in the stock market and I said well personal consumption is rising he should reply maybe it's just that the wrong companies are in the index right now. We can stay in the market, go 50-50, or cash out while the market is still high and wait for it to ...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Black Theme for Site?
Replies: 38
Views: 3004

Re: Black Theme for Site?

Something you might consider is using a browser add-on to adjust the appearance of any website. For example: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/dark-reader/eimadpbcbfnmbkopoojfekhnkhdbieeh?hl=en That is a good idea. I found a few Chrome extensions that work pretty well although the site is w...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand the low volatility premium
Replies: 7
Views: 825

Re: Help me understand the low volatility premium

The correlation between low-vol funds and interest rates is interesting. I think you have answered your own question. Total returns are greater when interest rates are taken into consideration. Low volatility performance can go either way plus or minus. They overperform at one time and start to und...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2031

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

Foreign investments can be like a currency casino. Good returns erased by bad currency exchange rates but also mediocre returns becoming better by favorable exchange rates. Some remark about low valuations so the concern there are they in a value trap. Companies don't have low valuations because the...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying diversification benefit
Replies: 6
Views: 691

Re: Quantifying diversification benefit

I think volatility is just something we have to live with. Risk equates into greater reward is usually acknowledged. Most people are satisfied with total return within some bounds of volatility (the market standard deviation). We have total return, mean return, and standard deviation. As beta is goo...
by patrick013
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question regarding annual backdoor roth IRA funding
Replies: 1
Views: 148

Re: Question regarding annual backdoor roth IRA funding

I can't seem to grasp the tax implications of this strategy to fund $5500 into the backdoor roth. If we do this strategy, we have to do this process each year. Will I open a new traditional IRA each year, and then send the money into the same backdoor'd roth IRA, or is it put into a new roth IRA ea...
by patrick013
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markowitz - new volume(s)
Replies: 0
Views: 221

Markowitz - new volume(s)

I think this is a general idea rather than something actionable today as markets still seem very volatile, unpredictable, etc.. Reading about 2 new volumes by Markowitz coming concerning Risk-Return Analysis a portfolio of large caps, iShare Small Cap fund, and iShare Emerging Markets fund was menti...
by patrick013
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate cycle and what to invest in
Replies: 3
Views: 412

Re: Interest rate cycle and what to invest in

Anyway the book provided a simple rule for investing: invest in different products based on interest rates. 1. When interest rates are rising invest in cash and short term securuties 2. When interest rates are going down invest in bonds 3. When interest rates are low invest in stocks This morning o...
by patrick013
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Portfolio Diversification
Replies: 1
Views: 135

Re: Help with Portfolio Diversification

My primary concern is with the 401k bond selection. Is 0.41% ER high enough that I should consider bonds in Roth/Taxable instead? I feel like I shouldn't stunt the growth of our Roths by allocating a large portion, if not all, of them to Bonds. With how much I'll be adding to the taxable account ea...
by patrick013
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 4920

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

Swedroe's point is that the compensation is inadequate. You can't get that information from looking at return comparisons with Treasuries over long time periods. If you choose not to accept the bond experts idea that's your choice. I don't see any need to make that choice. I can just avoid MBS and ...
by patrick013
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 4920

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

These are complex investments best left to professional portfolio managers who specialize in them, and have the expertise to manage them properly. Alot of people buy them thru banks that have some kind of investment brokerage service. The bank gets a concession from the underwriter. They love the w...
by patrick013
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 4920

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

The real question is whether the GNMA market is efficient enough for GNMA risks to be compensated adequately. If so, then they should improve risk-adjusted return of a bond portfolio once the risk-reducing power of diversification is incorporated. I think where I would be concerned is in a bond por...
by patrick013
Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 4920

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

Image



It will be interesting to see what the chart looks like a year, and 2 years from now.
by patrick013
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond curves -- flattening? Steepening. Asset Allocation?
Replies: 6
Views: 585

Re: Bond curves -- flattening? Steepening. Asset Allocation?

So why did everything go down on Friday (stocks and bonds)? I think there are less buyers lately so prices can slip down. That's supply and demand. Correlations are long term so short term prices may not look exactly correlated. While price declines for bonds can be attributed to FFR changes will t...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Opening an LLC for investing: tax advantages?
Replies: 12
Views: 1375

Re: Opening an LLC for investing: tax advantages?

The idea is to open an LLC and convert personal savings into the corporation's assets, which are then invested in a corporate investment account. How a Holding Company Works Most holding companies have millions in assets but I suppose you could do it for less on a smaller scale. Might be interestin...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 4920

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

GNMA's when rates are high can be a good investment bought
at a discount and held to maturity. Those prepayments can
happen anytime and usually shorten the maturity quite well.
Safe and good for bond diversification somewhat. I'd buy
new issues.

Agency Bonds
by patrick013
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relearning Calculus
Replies: 81
Views: 6079

Re: Relearning Calculus

The GMAT does not assume any knowledge of calculus, so it is unlikely to be covered in any review guide--certainly not in any detail. There may be a problem you stumble across where calculus could help in some way, but those are rare in my experience. Congrats on nearing the completion of your degr...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles

I would love for someone to present proof that factor-based investing (including implementation cost) outperforms the russell 2000 on a risk-adjusted basis. Anything could beat the 2000, factor based or not. Last I heard...but it is still an age old index. Not aware of any current stats but just re...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relearning Calculus
Replies: 81
Views: 6079

Re: Relearning Calculus

Sounds like an MSFinance would be easy for triceratops.
by patrick013
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relearning Calculus
Replies: 81
Views: 6079

Re: Relearning Calculus

One of these has a formulaic answer in the sense that there are a series of steps one can carry out to arrive at the result; the other is more abstract and foundational. For one thing, maybe the fourier transform converges to nothing at all? You have to prove each piece of the argument, in general ...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relearning Calculus
Replies: 81
Views: 6079

Re: Relearning Calculus

I'd go to a major bookstore and get and old GMAT math refresher. Has lasted me thru many forgetful things. A step up would be an engineering math guide and I think their math is a step up from business math. What can't you do then ? You cannot do proof-based calculus. OK correct me then. What exact...
by patrick013
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relearning Calculus
Replies: 81
Views: 6079

Re: Relearning Calculus

I'd go to a major bookstore and get and old GMAT math refresher.
Has lasted me thru many forgetful things. A step up would be
an engineering math guide and I think their math is a step up from
business math. What can't you do then ?
by patrick013
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in a well diversified portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 2570

Re: Bonds in a well diversified portfolio

the philosophy of bonds are in a portfolio to safeguard capital/protect from unexpected inflation seems to be better served by the 33/33/34 philosophy. A second question is that if one doesn't have adequate tax deferred space, should one switch to munis? This is a domestic 50-50 moderate allocation...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6541

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

I view the small cap premium to be real based on many DECADES of data showing it outperforms large and mid cap. From 1926 to 2006 Large Cap : average annual return = 12.3% standard deviation = 20.1% coefficient of variation = 1.63 Small Cap : average annual return = 17.4% standard deviation = 32.7%...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 6330

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

Is a melt-up happening in the stock market? = www.usatoday.com/ Though they don't specifically mention CAPE........ "Wall Street pros are split on whether stocks have entered the "melt-up" phase or whether the price action is normal." Fully diluted standard PE is still 26, that's all I know. Final ...
by patrick013
Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 6330

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

Schiller recently said that stock AA should be on the lower side. Other analysts think it's wonderful the earnings surprises last quarter. I think I'll go with Schiller. Why, may I ask, would you go with Shiller (who, admittedly, in a post below yours, said that CAPE should not be used to market ti...