Search found 1559 matches

by patrick013
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the "correct" PE ratio
Replies: 3
Views: 227

Re: the "correct" PE ratio

Major Index Price-Earnings Ratios and Yields
The above usually suffices. Standard PE based on fully diluted EPS actually reported
as of today. See which database has these figures.
by patrick013
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 13061

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Honestly people, judge for yourself the performance of these funds that are supposedly lower risk and/or higher return than the total stock market, simply from using a high dividend and quality screen. I base my optimism on several things. Yield weighted or equal weighted funds and not so much the ...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 22, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 13061

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Is there a fund that follows this strategy for those of us who don't want to pick individual stocks? QDF SCHD DLN, DEW, DGRW -- meant to be GARP. OFDIX -- high ER but is the fund described in that long article DJD Just google "quality dividend". The desire for companies that aren't at ins...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 991

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

On the longer end: The 2-10 spread also has shrunk quite a bit. The 2 has gone up because of Fed action at the low end. Foreign demand. Present and future spreads are expected to be low for one reason. Demand in general has to lessen a bit. I was told a few weeks ago by a Schwab bond expert that th...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?
Replies: 83
Views: 4622

Re: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?

jbolden1517 may ultimately be referring to this freely-published, non-proprietary paper by Robin Greenwood of the Harvard Business School: Float Manipulation and Stock Prices PJW Well what a delightful problem. A company without float. To keep the market solvent without restricting every trans- act...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
Replies: 45
Views: 3449

Re: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?

"Financial Advisors" without credentials that make them a fiduciary, and even some of those who are, are salespeople. They did not get MBA's or economics or mathematics degrees. Many have had rudimentary training via some corporate short course. They are no better or worse than folks sell...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks just got cheaper... per Vanguard [sudden change in Vanguard fund P/Es]
Replies: 28
Views: 3949

Re: Stocks just got cheaper... per Vanguard [sudden change in Vanguard fund P/Es]

Right now EPS ttm for the 500 is $100 and estimated EPS for fiscal 2017 is $117. What they are for mid, small, and Intl is anybody's guess, but whatever the EPS ttm and resulting PE is for those is based on the most current and available info. Here's what S&P's senior analyst says : Earnings and...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Creating tables in Bogleheads.org forums
Replies: 12
Views: 1484

Re: Creating tables in Bogleheads.org forums

Actually it takes a few steps. First make your table or spreadsheet in Excel. Set print area and export it as a .pdf Then open or import it into Gimp or some other large graphic editor. Perhaps crop it to size and save the final result to a .png file. Upload it to tinypic or other graphic file servi...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?
Replies: 83
Views: 4622

Re: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?

We are talking tens of thousands of articles and earnings reports. And most of them just more shock journalism. If Peter Lynch was here he'd probably say you're overreacting to things that happen everyday and don't make a dime. His trading strategy was always buy the name branders on sale and wait ...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?
Replies: 83
Views: 4622

Re: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?

Since the original article was from BofA let's use them as an example. Can you provide any links to the original Bank of America and JPMorgan studies that you referenced upthread? Sounds like they'd be interesting and insightful reads. Thanks. Guide to the Markets Got me to thinking.....probably no...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab's Modern Approach to Asset Allocation - Comments
Replies: 28
Views: 2422

Re: Schwab's Modern Approach to Asset Allocation - Comments

Tempting isn't it. All the little 2 and 3 per cent allocations they
can add from the non-investment grade categories people make
money on.
by patrick013
Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead's Guide to Investing second edition
Replies: 3
Views: 507

Re: Boglehead's Guide to Investing second edition

Roth IRA convertions from tax-deferred account Q- what is the max per year. And when should someone think about doing this? Yes after retirement. You need to know your marginal tax rate at 70 for RMD's. Convert when younger at a much lower tax rate if any conversions would save taxes later. optimal...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3361

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

From the above perspective, why should I ever rebalance except to attempt to manage the dollar-denominated range of cumulative portfolio returns over a given investment horizon? As the horizon becomes shorter, I would rebalance based on that shorter horizon in order to target the same expected rang...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the world's biggest investor backs the simplest investment
Replies: 25
Views: 3584

Re: Why the world's biggest investor backs the simplest investment

The 500 as we know it has expanded to it's present sector allocation over many many years. Even before Bogle was born as "Index Strips" on some exchanges like the CBOT. That's where the historians need to search. Of course selling the 500 to the general public outside of exchange clients b...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5180

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

Haven't thought about it much, but a heck of a deal for equal weighting at 12 basis points. Most studies dividend-wise seem to excel with yield or equal weighting. Some older studies with dividend size as the weighting factor are getting left behind the last ten years. Something eclectic is happeni...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment advice for $4 million - can I do all stocks?
Replies: 72
Views: 5545

Re: Investment advice for $4 million - can I do all stocks?

Well if I had any clients which I don't................. It's not the rosiest time to jump into stocks as PE's of market portfolios - LC, MC, and SC all exceed 25. Rising interest rates even slow ones are going to effect all bonds eventually with downward prices as markets equilibrate. So even a 50-...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5180

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

The main point was that dividend yield is much more stable than capital gains and grows with inflation. Income oriented investors want a stable real return. Which means income oriented investors can safely hold a higher percentage of equity in low P/D stocks. For someone pulling money out of a port...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Retained Earnings
Replies: 3
Views: 374

Re: Investing Retained Earnings

I think you'd want something conservative and liquid. No more
than 25% stocks if any. ST bonds, CD's.

Schwab usually has a good selection of ST AAA Corp bonds where
you can buy set maturity dates. 5 year CD's any place, or perhaps
an iShares iBond target date Corp bond fund.
by patrick013
Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Bond Or a Fund
Replies: 5
Views: 647

Re: Muni Bond Or a Fund

Looking around, plenty of Florida bonds available.
by patrick013
Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 143
Views: 13019

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

EPS for the 500 looks like it's going to be over 100 for the first time in several years, for 2017. Possibly 120 for the whole year, but their estimates are always high it seems. But for the near term there's 100 EPS which at an ultra high PE of 25 could put the price of the bull market at 2500. Som...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuities - clueless
Replies: 16
Views: 1589

Re: Annuities - clueless

... I made a $100,000 payment, waited 4 years, then started 120 monthly payments of $1043. The before tax effective return is 2.54%. So it really is a 14 year project. ... I did it without the 4 year wait, also at immediateannuities.com I confirm the 2.54% return, patrick013 gets. For David Jay's c...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Bond Or a Fund
Replies: 5
Views: 647

Re: MUNI BOND OR A FUND

To really increase quality thru research use the chart below. States are ranked based on solvency including unfunded pension per cent. Some counties in lower ranked states may still have AAA bonds GO or Revenue so use your discretion or go short term with those. Hard to fathom lower rated states re-...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exchange 80+ stocks with capital gains for funds?
Replies: 25
Views: 1961

Re: Exchange 80+ stocks with capital gains for funds?

Stocks can't get much higher so it's a good time to sell however you look at it. Just to be clear, I'm discussing exchanging the individual stocks for one or more mutual funds, not just selling. Therefore, the exposure to the equity market would be unchanged (speaking generally). Well you still hav...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 12, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5180

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

Dividend investing with individual stocks can be done. I think it's a tilt like smaller caps. I mean I think S&P strips were being traded on the CBOT before Bogle went to college. Most yield weighted and otherwise low cost dividend indexes should be a return surprise IMO. In a flat real growth ...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5180

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

The dogs of the dow website was supposed to be a good dividend provider. As cycles go some "dogs" are reducing their payouts while the Dow index rises in price. AT&T doesn't want to upgrade line customers' old wires anymore it seems as some other new business is more profitable while r...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exchange 80+ stocks with capital gains for funds?
Replies: 25
Views: 1961

Re: Exchange 80+ stocks with capital gains for funds?

That's the trouble with LTCG nobody likes to pay the taxes on them. Look in BARRON'S to find future EPS estimates by ticker. Those with high growth keep and those with lower growth in EPS consider selling sooner with 0% tax. Stocks can't get much higher so it's a good time to sell however you look a...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?
Replies: 63
Views: 5125

Re: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?

https://s1.postimg.org/54evrkezz/GDP-_Returns_Graphic.jpg So if we added population or at least working population to these for global. http://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/500july2017.png We could get a better projection for global prices and return projecions. http://myphotos.mypclin...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuities - clueless
Replies: 16
Views: 1589

Re: Annuities - clueless

Fidelity Guaranteed Income Estimator I priced a 10 year annuity and it yielded over 2.5%. Kinda like a CD but you get a payment every month rather than waiting till maturity. I think annuities will pay more when interest rates go up in the bond market. Are you sure? I did the same thing a few days ...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuities - clueless
Replies: 16
Views: 1589

Re: Annuities - clueless

Fidelity Guaranteed Income Estimator

I priced a 10 year annuity and it yielded over 2.5%. Kinda like a CD but
you get a payment every month rather than waiting till maturity. I
think annuities will pay more when interest rates go up in the bond
market.
by patrick013
Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best books for tax planning/strategy?
Replies: 6
Views: 901

Re: Best books for tax planning/strategy?

Bill Harris' Investment Tax Guide

Don't know if the above is the best one but covers many topics well.

Some people make pdf's out of the BH wiki tax consideration pages
and print them out.
by patrick013
Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 13061

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

And were back in the weeds again... Here is a study that Professor Jeremy Siegal did comparing the S & P 500 to High Dividend Yield stocks. 1957 thru 2002 "The Future For Investors". http://www.mhinvest.com/files/pdf/NF_future_for_investors_2005.pdf Thanks for your studies Patrick...t...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 13061

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

The arguments I've heard against a dividend tilt are rather subjective and even after taxes reduce the total return of a long term dividend investment the dividend funds still beat funds like TSM over all ten year periods I've seen. Can you tell me more about these dividend funds that have historic...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 13061

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

The arguments I've heard against a dividend tilt are rather subjective and even after taxes reduce the total return of a long term dividend investment the dividend funds still beat funds like TSM over all ten year periods I've seen. Can you tell me more about these dividend funds that have historic...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 13061

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

The arguments I've heard against a dividend tilt are rather subjective and even after taxes reduce the total return of a long term dividend investment the dividend funds still beat funds like TSM over all ten year periods I've seen. Pricing is truly a balancing act as growth, yield, bond yields, and...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRECalc like simulator with fixed withdrawals not CPI adjusted
Replies: 5
Views: 509

Re: FIRECalc like simulator with fixed withdrawals not CPI adjusted

Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion The aboves goes in depth a bit. Most basic is a 50-50 portfolio with treasuries to sell during a market crash or a CD ladder for liquidity in that event. I zero out in 25 years for example just in a column in Excel. No success ratio. A little too basic. MC should be b...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRECalc like simulator with fixed withdrawals not CPI adjusted
Replies: 5
Views: 509

Re: FIRECalc like simulator with fixed withdrawals not CPI adjusted

Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion The aboves goes in depth a bit. Most basic is a 50-50 portfolio with treasuries to sell during a market crash or a CD ladder for liquidity in that event. I zero out in 25 years for example just in a column in Excel. No success ratio. A little too basic. MC should be b...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 07, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and Bonds both declining.
Replies: 60
Views: 5131

Re: Stocks and Bonds both declining.

I'm thinking again that TRSY 10 is just an inch away from selling at a 3% yield in the secondary market. Assuming that one year is an inch in the constant maturity chart below I think it is more like 2 inches away. OK an inch and a half maybe. :D https://s23.postimg.org/9rjlulnaz/Ten_year_yield_cur...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and Bonds both declining.
Replies: 60
Views: 5131

Re: Stocks and Bonds both declining.

I'm thinking again that TRSY 10 is just an inch away from selling at a 3% yield in the secondary market. Stocks may decline as the price of credit starts to increase and bonds become buyable at better spreads. So stocks and bonds may both decline. Surprisingly I read today the FED is planning on sel...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 2575

Re: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

Math is pretty well worked out for individual commodities - did some searches after posting - there are evenplug and play code for it - the reason I think people have not really applied it to the whole stock market is the limited data set which makes any form of MC models make sense but more compli...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 2575

Re: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

Alot depends on individual liquidity and account size. If every 10 years there's a market crash well anyone would expect Monte Carlo to fully account for that in a 25 year withdrawal plan success rate calculation. Withdrawal rates being low enough that sales of bonds from bond gains can sustain a re...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 05, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 2575

Re: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

Well I think you have to have a pretty high math degree to work or rework a Monte Carlo. My old books had some simple examples but nothing along the line of 30-40 year experience applied to a 25 year retirement program using probabilities of occurrences of past events for a final decision. So well d...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond mutual fund income
Replies: 6
Views: 825

Re: Bond mutual fund income

SEC yield is a better estimator for total return. @jazzbeat101 Being a slightly improved version of YTM that is really the standard metric for measuring a bond on any given day. All bonds have interest risk so whether that goes up or down would affect all bonds similarly if not exactly to 4 decimal...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 03, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification
Replies: 6
Views: 424

Re: Diversification

I like age in bonds but stopping at 50-50. With at least half the bonds being treasury to provide liquidity in a market crash of unknown future date. Most flights to quality are directed to buying treasuries which keep their prices up in a crash, but prices are already up so to speak. If you already...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 02, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I change investment tactics? Confused.
Replies: 10
Views: 950

Re: Should I change investment tactics? Confused.

bac573 wrote:My wife has no retirement plan (small business owner).


A Solo401k or separate SEP-IRA are popular retirement plans for small
business owners. Don't know the size of the business but one or the
other plan may help in the future.
by patrick013
Sun Jul 02, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 59
Views: 4350

Re: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

If I’m like many investors, I’m not much concerned about what the correlation between stocks and bonds is generally, over decades and decades. What I’m most concerned about is their correlation during stock market meltdowns and other crises. Here's my favorite table regarding that. In a 50-50 portf...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 59
Views: 4350

Re: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Thanks. Would you see a total bond fund (e.g., BND) as being a simple way of achieving this balance between ST, IT, & LT bond laddering? I actually try to optimize my bonds more than most people because it's not that hard to do and can result in some more income. My portfolio is easily 50-50. I...
by patrick013
Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 59
Views: 4350

Re: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

What would happen if the fed continued to raise rates at a similar pace for the next 2 years - do folks think we'd see similar BND recovery? What would happen if inflation picked up and fed raised even more quickly? http://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/trsytable.png What is happening i...
by patrick013
Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2256

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

Supply and demand are certainly expected to be a huge factor, more so than in the past, as investors flock to high quality investments. But, it still has to be done thru the FFR and other economic transmission effects at their disposal. The market isn't really setting a valuation it's just buying to...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SP500 vs High Dividend Yeld Global Stocks
Replies: 27
Views: 2394

Re: SP500 vs High Dividend Yeld Global Stocks

I would prefer to use the normal financial econometric data
as provided and proceed from there.

I've read Mandelbrot, so what, same old PE.

So I proceed with a well diversified portfolio.
by patrick013
Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired Traditional IRA advice
Replies: 14
Views: 913

Re: Retired Traditional IRA advice

Well I would want to know my final tax bracket when 70. This would include all pensions, SS, dividends, interest, and annuities, just all incomes before IRA transactions. Between now and 70 conversions to Roth could be made limited by that marginal tax bracket. After that, well even RMD taxation can...

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