Search found 1448 matches

by patrick013
Mon May 29, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather Portfolio for retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1222

Re: All Weather Portfolio for retirement

Choosing from the Vanguard selection I would go with: VBILX for the bonds VHDYX for the LCV VIGAX for the LCG VSIAX for the SCV VFWAX for the IntStocks I'd probably be happy with : 50% - VBILX for the bonds 20% - VHDYX for the LCV 15% - VIGAX for the LCG 15% - VSIAX for the SCV Not real excited abo...
by patrick013
Mon May 29, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth or Traditional 401(k) for My Situation
Replies: 11
Views: 656

Re: Roth or Traditional 401(k) for My Situation

Yep, this actually brought up something I didn't even think of, which is that my pension will keep me above the 10% bracket for the rest of my life. I think this adds another point in the Roth's column since I will never be able to fill the 10% bracket with traditional withdraws. I use my own sprea...
by patrick013
Sun May 28, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on this portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 728

Re: Advice on this portfolio

Well the simplest thing is a 500 index 50% and the VG Interm Bond Index 50% Both will weather any business cycle. Going forward returns may only be 4-5%, but as time goes on the economy and returns will improve. So going forward you withdraw bonds if stocks are down and withdraw from stocks when sto...
by patrick013
Sun May 28, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many investment companies to have money in?
Replies: 41
Views: 2956

Re: How many investment companies to have money in?

Brokerage accounts are only insured per SIPC to $500,000 plus they usually have extended insurance above that usually detailed in an "Account Protection" info box. It's not just insuring the money, it's access to the money. During the Maryland savings & loan crisis, I lost access to m...
by patrick013
Sat May 27, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many investment companies to have money in?
Replies: 41
Views: 2956

Re: How many investment companies to have money in?

Brokerage accounts are only insured per SIPC to $500,000 plus
they usually have extended insurance above that usually detailed
in an "Account Protection" info box.
by patrick013
Fri May 26, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates and rate increases
Replies: 5
Views: 754

Interest Rates and rate increases

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/images/pubs-images/52xxx/52391-land-figure2-9.png The Congressional Budget Office says : "... relatively higher demand for Treasury securities implies higher prices and therefore lower interest rates. And net inflows of capital from other countr...
by patrick013
Fri May 26, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 28
Views: 2884

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

Everything is so overvalued the DJIA looks somewhat still buyable. But when I look at REIT's I look at 2 things. An older REIT that has low growth but steady income. And a growing REIT with large increases in payouts that has dividend growth and price appreciation regardless of current interest rate...
by patrick013
Fri May 26, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations
Replies: 13
Views: 1499

Re: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations

I love the way these guys use abstract statistics to explain fundamental valuations. It's too much like technical analysis. Take a look at the DJ Transport Index, last year's profit compared to this year's profit and tell me if there's going to be a market correction this year. What a leading indica...
by patrick013
Wed May 24, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Reorganizing Investments
Replies: 6
Views: 434

Re: Help Reorganizing Investments

401k choices : Vanguard Inst Index (VINIX) ER=0.04 Vanguard Midcap Index Adm (VIMAX) ER=0.06 Vanguard Small Cap Index Adm (VSMAX) ER=0.06 Vangard Total Inst Stk Ad (VTIAX) ER=0.11 possibly Vanguard Infl Prot Instl (VIPIX) ER=0.07 Vanguard Total Bnd Mkt Inst (VBTIX) ER=0.04 possibly Vanguard Infl Pro...
by patrick013
Wed May 24, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Raj Chetty on the rationality of dividends
Replies: 2
Views: 591

Re: Raj Chetty on the rationality of dividends

Rescuing Retained Earnings from the Accumulated Earnings Tax

Just some extra cash that might raise the price of a lower growth stock.
by patrick013
Wed May 24, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PEG Ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 924

Re: PEG Ratio

Institutional Brokers' Estimate System

Apparently you can go to the IBES website and look for estimates also. It's
nice they have such a thing.
by patrick013
Tue May 23, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need to add small and mid cap?
Replies: 10
Views: 1002

Re: Do I need to add small and mid cap?

BogleMelon wrote:The only reasonable index fund in my 401K is a S&P500 fund.


Most people should be happy with only a low fee 500 in the 401k.
Then put some bonds in the Roth. Ticker SMD is all mid-small cap
for example also.
by patrick013
Tue May 23, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PEG Ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 924

Re: PEG Ratio

GuitarXM wrote:Though the growth in the PEG formula is the expected growth?
How do you even know what the growth will be?

lol how do they estimate it?

Look in Barron's. Most tickers have future earnings listed from the
Institutional Brokers Estimate Service.
by patrick013
Tue May 23, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % Roth vs. % traditional
Replies: 91
Views: 3284

Re: % Roth vs. % traditional

I wonder what happens to the reduced taxes when using the trad401k ? It should increase aftertax income in the sense that your take home pay is taxed less, and that extra money should be invested in a Roth ot Taxable account to earn some return adding to the return and making the trad401k more desi...
by patrick013
Mon May 22, 2017 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PEG Ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 924

Re: PEG Ratio

Google isn't explaining it as a working metric. I think it is a metric that just gives a number to growth stocks. So if a stock has a PEG of 10 Peter Lynch might not buy it, bt if it had a PEG of 5 and was a well regarded growth stock he might. Hard to price future earnings so if a stock has 20% gro...
by patrick013
Mon May 22, 2017 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % Roth vs. % traditional
Replies: 91
Views: 3284

Re: % Roth vs. % traditional

I wonder what happens to the reduced taxes when using the trad401k ? It should increase aftertax income in the sense that your take home pay is taxed less, and that extra money should be invested in a Roth ot Taxable account to earn some return adding to the return and making the trad401k more desir...
by patrick013
Mon May 22, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PEG Ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 924

Re: PEG Ratio

I'd look at Apple or Amazon and see what their PEG ratio is. Probably
scare away many "growth" investors. A PEG of 2 or 3 is starting to
get pretty high for a stock with 10% growth for example.
by patrick013
Mon May 22, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % Roth vs. % traditional
Replies: 91
Views: 3284

Re: % Roth vs. % traditional

If your certain you will be in a lower tax bracket in retirement, a traditional 401k or IRA would be preferable to Roth accounts. You can deduct your contributions at your current (higher) marginal rate and pay taxes at your lower rate in the future (assuming tax laws remain the same). Even if you ...
by patrick013
Sun May 21, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Leave a Free Investment Advisor?
Replies: 23
Views: 2129

Re: Should I Leave a Free Investment Advisor?

Here's another way to look at it, putting $18,000 in a traditional TSP what would be your tax reduction ? Probably enough to fully fund the Roth IRA. In a Roth TSP you're actually paying $18,000 plus the cost of taxes on $18,000 every year to fund that investment. So many use the tax-deferred becaus...
by patrick013
Sat May 20, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 39
Views: 4616

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

My instinct tells me not to put a whole lot of weight on factor studies and these "real return" philosophers. Show me a 30 year study with normal econometrics and it will show diseconomies of scale will favor smaller caps with other growth characteristics being a good diversification even ...
by patrick013
Sat May 20, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Find (or Calculate) 10-Year Average P/E Ratios?
Replies: 3
Views: 226

Re: How to Find (or Calculate) 10-Year Average P/E Ratios?

Most libraries have the Value Line book on stocks in the
reference section. Each stock has past metrics and one
of them is lifetime average PE, not adjusted for inflation
or anything else like that.
by patrick013
Sat May 20, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)
Replies: 20
Views: 1829

Re: Demand for stocks to high? (investor behavior)

The focus of this discussion is a bit unclear to me. Is the intent to show investor behavior may not continue a trend to buy stocks (and funds holding stocks), i.e. stay in the market? What should an individual investor do (or not do) as a result? It depends on what type of investor one is. Each on...
by patrick013
Fri May 19, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)
Replies: 20
Views: 1829

Re: Demand for stocks to high? (investor behavior)

Many observations point to a soft landing. The cycle slows but swings into new growth somehow. No runaway inflation or runaway growth for interest rates to rise above. Actually business and mortgage loan demand is declining putting less pressure on interest rates potentially. But the original questi...
by patrick013
Thu May 18, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find
Replies: 6
Views: 1209

Re: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find

I don't think they'll ever find exactly what they want. I think it's related to the business cycle, interest rate cycle, earnings cycle, and valuations. Sometimes people are just looking for something cheaper to buy. Small and Value tend to follow certain events but that would get into market timing...
by patrick013
Wed May 17, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA to Roth IRA Conversion - your input please
Replies: 6
Views: 376

Re: IRA to Roth IRA Conversion - your input please

To me it is a question of how much to convert without going into a higher tax bracket. If you need the money equal withdrawals from 401k aren't bad at all for say 20 years. Some larger 401k's which are in a higher tax bracket can withdraw equal amounts between 60 and 70 years old, and a different eq...
by patrick013
Tue May 16, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help with Investments/Portfolio Optimization
Replies: 6
Views: 568

Re: Need Help with Investments/Portfolio Optimization

Great point. Thanks. So If I were to sell investments in the tax-advantaged accounts now and realize gains, what would be the tax consequences of doing so and when would I actually pay those taxes? No taxes on transactions within the tax advantaged accounts. Taxes will be paid on any distributions ...
by patrick013
Mon May 15, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4352

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

The advisor's name is index replacement and he is a very powerful advisor. He (She) can take any stock(s) out of the index that are not performing and replace them with stocks that are performing. So it looks like stocks are going up because you always have stocks with steady or rising earnings in t...
by patrick013
Mon May 15, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help with Investments/Portfolio Optimization
Replies: 6
Views: 568

Re: Need Help with Investments/Portfolio Optimization

A few thoughts : Keep the mortgage, that rate you will never see again. A 50-50 AA is well advised, unless risk is desired. You have adequate income. 12% Intl is fine with me. 6% Developed and 6% Emerging markets. These funds are where I would head to, or try to head to. Tax on taxable gains can pro...
by patrick013
Mon May 15, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Selecting from limited Employer 401k Plan Options
Replies: 5
Views: 438

Re: Help Selecting from limited Employer 401k Plan Options

TheGooch wrote:I didn't realize that the minimum investment for VIIIX was $200 million.


When it's in a 401k it doesn't matter, it all aggregates and doesn't matter.
But TSM is just as good. Just FYI.
by patrick013
Sun May 14, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Selecting from limited Employer 401k Plan Options
Replies: 5
Views: 438

Re: Help Selecting from limited Employer 401k Plan Options

Yes more info would be helpful, see https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212 If it was me I would max out to the tax deferred limit contributions in the 401k getting the max employer match at the same time into this fund : Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares - an...
by patrick013
Sat May 13, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help on choosing Dividend Index Fund
Replies: 9
Views: 1040

Re: Need help on choosing Dividend Index Fund

I see that you are new to the forum - welcome. If I may ask, are you in the accumulation stage of your life (I.e. Working and saving)? If so, there has been a lot of work done on this topic. In particular, financial author Larry Swedroe has demonstrated that a better focus in accumulation is total ...
by patrick013
Fri May 12, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 36
Views: 2681

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

] That doesn't sound right to me, but I'm no expert. One guess is that there are rules about draining a 401K to zero before a certain age. Ask James Walsh the model owner, assuming you kept the model number from your work so he can look at it. If my guess is correct, a Boglehead would simply roll o...
by patrick013
Fri May 12, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying individual Bonds, T Notes
Replies: 3
Views: 478

Re: Buying individual Bonds, T Notes

Bond Investing | FINRA.org

The above answers many questions, and the BH wiki has extra info.
by patrick013
Thu May 11, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 36
Views: 2681

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

Well it won't let me zero the trad401k to zero. It keeps spending taxable and refuses to move anything to Roth then. It wants somebody to inherit some 401k and some Roth then. It actually leaves several hundred thousand dollars more in ending account balance then if some other non-LP plan was feasi...
by patrick013
Thu May 11, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 36
Views: 2681

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

I haven't had the time to check side by side a comparison but I'd anticipate the end results would be similar when the time to start doing that actually comes. It all depends on what the annual tax bracket is, lower or higher. Please come back after you try I-ORP. I'm curious to hear whether you ge...
by patrick013
Thu May 11, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 36
Views: 2681

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

Apart from expecting a trad401k balance, a pension, social security, and perhaps an annuity my best plan is to withdraw the trad401k in equal annual withdrawals down to zero balance in the 401k over 20 or perhaps 30 years to stay in the lowest tax bracket while doing so. Spend what I would need and ...
by patrick013
Wed May 10, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500
Replies: 24
Views: 2523

Re: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500

Well none of the so-called dividend index funds out today are replicates of the one in the study I have. Even Div Aristocrats index, which returned 9.67% to the 500's 7% over the last 10 years, is not close to the "index" in the study. Here's what's needed : 1) large cap index (better earn...
by patrick013
Tue May 09, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500
Replies: 24
Views: 2523

Re: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500

I don't see why they don't just pick 50 stocks based on DivYield,
weight them based on DivYield, exclude utilities and mortgage
REITS like it says to do, and sell the thing as an index fund. At
least it would be a replication of the study then that says it beats
the 500 over 50-60 years. :)
by patrick013
Tue May 09, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is BIV ok for my bond holding? [Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond]
Replies: 8
Views: 623

Re: Is BIV ok for my bond holding?

BIV is quite excellent for a bond fund choice. 50-50 TRSY and Corp
coupon bonds, 10 year max maturity, investment grade, and excellent
track record thru many business cycles. Current SEC Yield 2.6% .
by patrick013
Tue May 09, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500
Replies: 24
Views: 2523

Re: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500

By the way, nobody was following the Dividend Aristocrat strategy in 1991. This article is a good counterpoint to the first one. https://seekingalpha.com/article/3901726-fate-49-dividend-aristocrats-early-1990s-may-give-nightmares Index replacement is supposed to take companies out of the index whe...
by patrick013
Tue May 09, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks
Replies: 85
Views: 6662

Re: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks

There seems to be all sorts of "could'a would'a should'a" market beating portfolios that come out in hindsight... and yet when I look at portfolios of dividend stocks that were actually being broadly invested in, such as the Vanguard, Fidelity, or T.Rowe Price "Equity Income" fu...
by patrick013
Mon May 08, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks
Replies: 85
Views: 6662

Re: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks

I've read a number of threads stating that it's been proven for years without contention that investors preference for dividends is irrational. The academic literature that Larry Swedroe cited said that there was no difference in returns between stocks that paid dividends and those that did not. I ...
by patrick013
Sat May 06, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sensible article on Smart Beta by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 21
Views: 1774

Re: Sensible article on Smart Beta by Jonathan Clements

Humurous ? 500 index - 50% Mid-cap index - 25% Small-cap index - 25% Say I said that I wanted the above to be my desired portfolio. Interest rates, inflation, and corp profits could have risen making the size or value premium much smaller but still a potenntial. Highlighting dis-economies of scale i...
by patrick013
Sat May 06, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: question for accountants, business owners: what is normal?
Replies: 3
Views: 519

Re: question for accountants, business owners: what is normal?

montanagirl wrote: Is this just all normal day-to-day scrambling by a going concern?

Well most companies have positive cash flow, break-even if not
superb profits, accurate inventory, accounts paid on time, etc..
by patrick013
Sat May 06, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Index Funds A Farce?
Replies: 28
Views: 3679

Re: Value Index Funds A Farce?

...Well value in any sense has low growth but very steady earnings therefore a low PEG ratio... That's not necessarily true. Yes, you're absolutely right. The PEG ratio more often applies to measuring the pricing of growth stocks I think I should say. A very high PEG for most growth stocks is not t...
by patrick013
Fri May 05, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap value tilt portfolio review
Replies: 25
Views: 1986

Re: Small cap tilt portfolio review

If you're doing what I think you're doing.....

Perhaps 2/3 ticker IJR and 1/3 ticker IJS for small cap.

REASON : the premium appears sporadically, the 500 is still lurching
by patrick013
Fri May 05, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Index Funds A Farce?
Replies: 28
Views: 3679

Re: Value Index Funds A Farce?

For those that are slice and dicers, any thoughts on value indices? I hold a lot of "value" indices, but I did always find the broad determination of "value" very subjective. I also tried to find where Vanguard defines how they determine "value" for their small-cap and...
by patrick013
Fri May 05, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which to Fund First? Roth IRA vs 401k
Replies: 10
Views: 756

Re: Which to Fund First? Roth IRA vs 401k

I am trying to gather some coworkers together to persuade HR to include low cost index funds from Vanguard, etc in the future-- but as of now, there isn't a single fund below an ER of 1%. Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, and perhaps iShares would suffice. All we really need is a 500 index fund and somet...
by patrick013
Fri May 05, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Priority of Retirement Accounts
Replies: 18
Views: 1616

Re: Priority of Retirement Accounts

Unless you're going to be in a super-high tax bracket in retirement the traditional 401k maxing tax-deferred contributions as well as receiving all employer matching is hard to pass up. Most people open up a Roth IRA separately also. Some 401k's have high ER's especially for the bond funds so some p...
by patrick013
Fri May 05, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts how/why/when to finally move to Bonds/Fixed Income
Replies: 20
Views: 2794

Re: Thoughts how/why/when to finally move to Bonds/Fixed Income

A few thoughts... 1) Ideally, I want about 30-40% of my US in SC value. I like to weight MC-SC a bit more than market weight but yours is definitely aggressive. Considering high PE's for MC and SC lately any reversion is likely to be downward. I'd cut the percentage down a bit to a level more perman...

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