Search found 1450 matches

by patrick
Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Teacher 403(b) signup - any tips?
Replies: 4
Views: 353

Re: Teacher 403(b) signup - any tips?

For the 403(b) you'd probably have to check the list of funds from every vendor to be sure which is best. The employer might be able to give an overall list, but if not, there may be no alternative to asking each one.
by patrick
Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Media storage solutions
Replies: 16
Views: 698

Re: Media storage solutions

Two things i would have a second disconnected raid copy and an online backup of important files through carbonite $75.00 per year. I have lost two external drives in the ladt year the pain is real. I don't think that carbonite is the best choice. Note that it won't back up files larger than 4GB unl...
by patrick
Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Use nondecutible IRA/401k contributions or regular taxable investment?
Replies: 4
Views: 235

Use nondecutible IRA/401k contributions or regular taxable investment?

I am trying to decide whether to use nondeductible retirement account contributions or to invest in regular taxable accounts instead. I am saving more than the 18000 401k limit each year and am not eligible to make Roth or deductible traditional IRA contributions. It seems I cannot use the backdoor ...
by patrick
Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit recommendations from Credit Karma?
Replies: 7
Views: 639

Re: Credit recommendations from Credit Karma?

It is an very well known fact that they are totally unreliable . Ignore them completely. They do get a kickback from the CCCs so they have an incentive to encourage traffic. CK is good for giving an easy way to view a summary of 2 credit reports. The scores are pretty useless, and the rest of the w...
by patrick
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31660

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

The US index has provided decent long-term results, the ex-US index hasn't. Like I said many times before, it's absolute, not relative. Investing in the ex-US index hasn't provided an acceptable real return for a very long period of 24 years, while subjecting investors to a lot of volatility. I don...
by patrick
Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31660

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

We do not expect regular posters here to start threads titled "(someone) was right about individual stocks" that point to one or two individual stocks outperforming over the last 24 years. Did (someone) out there make a claim or prediction 24 years ago about that one or two stock outperfo...
by patrick
Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31660

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

I'm not at all saying international types or anyone here is less Bogleheadish. Some choose ultimate diversification, as you say, and some choose good enough diversification. Many Bogleheads make bets, pick subsets, tilt, hold more of a sector, hold a dreaded single stock or two, and yet it's avoidi...
by patrick
Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]
Replies: 3
Views: 492

Re: Trusting Bitcoin

You do not need to send your private key or passphrase to anyone else to send a bitcoin payment. You only "give up" these things to the software running on your computer, which produces a digital signature based on the private key, but doesn't reveal the private key to anyone else. Which i...
by patrick
Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31660

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Would you consider international investing a good idea if, instead of using an ex-US index, you only invested in countries with a long term record of performing better than the US? My answer... Sure, I would likely do that if I could pick and choose what countries I felt comfortable investing in. T...
by patrick
Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Money Market vs. Savings Accounts
Replies: 42
Views: 5541

Re: Vanguard Money Market vs. Savings Accounts

I still don't see a good reason to prefer 1.1% on Vanguard Money Market over the 1.5% I get on my Redneck Bank deposit account. Vanguard not only lacks FDIC insurance, but far more importantly they lack a debit card with a picture of a horse on it.
by patrick
Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31660

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Simple. The real return on the ex-US index over the last 20+ years has been pathetic, while being very volatile. Simply not a worthwhile investment. If the US index did just as poorly, I would say the same thing about that. Any investment that returns so little over such a long period of time while...
by patrick
Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31660

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Significant ex-US index holdings would have been a pretty big drag on my portfolio, and I've been investing in the stock market for over 20 years. Fortunately, I didn't hold any. I don't think anyone who has held the ex-US index over the last three decades is happy with that, and that's a really lo...
by patrick
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31660

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

But if "past performance is a minor factor in making decisions" then how do you determine two asset classes should have similar returns? How long do you wait until you determine "the long run" return? From your post, it must be greater than 10 years, but is it 20, 50, 100, 1000?...
by patrick
Sun Jul 23, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return
Replies: 15
Views: 1010

Re: If markets efficient in local currency why would unhedged foreign equity holding provide adequate return

If a Japanese investor bought US stocks, would you say that the Japanese investor had a speculative short position on the Japanese yen? Would you say that the Japanese investor had an investment that was not priced to provide an adequate return in Japanese yen? Why or why not?
by patrick
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8403

Re: The crowd is always wrong

History demonstrates that for most time periods, foreign markets have lower returns, higher standard deviations and lower Sharpe ratios. For example, portfolio visualizer goes back to 01/1986 and shows US market return as 10.2% (std dev = 15.1%, foreign market returns as 7.1% (std dev = 18.0%) with...
by patrick
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8403

Re: The crowd is always wrong

Also, I don't buy the home country bias argument for investing in USA. If I lived in Turkey and was buying the Turkish stock market, ok...home country bias. The USA has so many advantages over the rest of the world, that it would make sense to invest here no matter what country you live in. I would...
by patrick
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8403

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

The thing that bothers me about ex-US is the poor performance this century. It hasn't returned much since 2000. Lots of volatility for not much return over such a long period of time. Still, P/E is high which makes me skeptical that returns will suddenly increase radically and compensate for this l...
by patrick
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8069

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

In 2014, stocks differed by 16.7% but bonds only differed by 2.9% In 2015, stocks differed by 4.7% but bonds only differed by 0.7% In 2016, stocks differed by 8.0% but bonds only differed by 2.1% Interestingly, foreign bonds outperformed US bonds in each year, while the reverse happened with stocks...
by patrick
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8403

Re: The crowd is always wrong

"If you believe Jack Bogle, here's where you should invest." Why mess with what’s worked? “I believe the U.S. is the best place to invest,” Bogle told Bloomberg, earning our call of the day. “I’d bet that the U.S. will do better than the rest of the world. It is a simple bet on which econ...
by patrick
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8069

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

I would generally expect bond returns to not differ by much when currency hedged, and thus not provide much diversification. Looking at the historical difference between US and international returns for Vanguard's total funds (unfortunately international bond only opened in 2013) seems to bear this ...
by patrick
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8403

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

I know there's a lot of debate here about whether international stock is really needed in a portfolio. I've read a lot of it and I still don't know what I think. Looking at the last 30 years, except for a few short periods, international stocks would have just been a drag on overall portfolio retur...
by patrick
Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?
Replies: 51
Views: 4017

Re: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?

So just to clarify you are saying that Alan isn't holding "money" in some generic sense. He's holding a derivative of currency and only currency matters. I didn't discuss checking accounts, but if you make an analogy from what I said about stocks and stock options, I said nearly the oppos...
by patrick
Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?
Replies: 51
Views: 4017

Re: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?

I'm not quite sure I'd call this the CAPM perspective, but here is what happens generally when someone has both an options position and a plain position in the same stock: Before: The guys short the option have A shares in the stock The guys short the option have -B contracts in the option which ha...
by patrick
Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?
Replies: 51
Views: 4017

Re: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?

Each option has two sides. If those who use options to go long in the underlying stock count as owning 5% to 20% of it, then those on the other side of those options should count as owning -5% to -20% of it. In the aggregate the options add up to zero. Counting the options as 0 is fine. But then yo...
by patrick
Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?
Replies: 51
Views: 4017

Re: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?

Each option has two sides. If those who use options to go long in the underlying stock count as owning 5% to 20% of it, then those on the other side of those options should count as owning -5% to -20% of it. In the aggregate the options add up to zero. Counting the options as 0 is fine. But then yo...
by patrick
Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?
Replies: 51
Views: 4017

Re: Is the Total US Stock Market too concentrated?

US stock market participants, wherever they're located, in aggregate own the US stock market in its cap-weighted sense. It's impossible for it to be otherwise. That's both false and not impossible at all. For example shorting is getting quite popular now because of the prevalence of options. Which ...
by patrick
Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 74
Views: 5227

Re: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?

I wish that advocates of global cap-weighting, instead of simply shouting down U.S. tilters as being motivated purely by xenophobic "home bias," would instead look seriously at the question "if you take currency risk into account, how much does that shift the optimum portfolio away f...
by patrick
Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 74
Views: 5227

Re: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?

If we were comparing the whole US market with investing in just whichever sector you worked in, would you consider the evidence weak if it only showed a modest volatility reduction if you went beyond your own sector?
by patrick
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on Desktop PC
Replies: 87
Views: 4224

Re: Advice on Desktop PC

Can a new Tower (not desktop) computer with a full size case containing more than one hard drive-perhaps one SSD and one traditional?- and containing a sound card that puts output out for a good speaker system and also containing a video card and your choice of motherboard and CPU (main processor) ...
by patrick
Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on Desktop PC
Replies: 87
Views: 4224

Re: Advice on Desktop PC

I'll downgrade the processor, but tentatively plan to stick with the SSD. I'll price the 8 vs 16 GB RAM before deciding. It may cost less to buy the machine configured with less memory and then buy the extra memory separately. Same goes for the SSD whew the price for a separate SSD is much less tha...
by patrick
Thu Jun 29, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need Credit Card for International Travel
Replies: 45
Views: 2876

Re: Need Credit Card for International Travel

Yes exactly. Since my last question, I found that my NFCU debit card has some pretty low ATM fees when using the VisaPlus ATM in Montreal. That may be the solution for me. Cool. What's the worst that can happen from a one-time foreign ATM usage? A $5 fee? Not exactly life-changing. You could run in...
by patrick
Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it ok to avoid Chinese A Shares?
Replies: 41
Views: 2524

Re: Why is it ok to avoid Chinese A Shares?

Many people here defend US-only investing. I'll guess you don't want a rehash of those kinds of arguments here though. The problem with A shares (but not most of the other Chinese shares) is that they haven't been considered public markets. They have traditionally had very restrictive rules limiting...
by patrick
Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Help With Limited Choices/High ER Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 258

Re: 401k Help With Limited Choices/High ER Funds

You can reduce costs further if you work with all accounts together instead of the 401k in isolation. This would allow you to put the 401k all in FFFCX because it has the lowest costs of the limit Ted selection, and then increase the amount of stocks outside the 401k in order to have the desired amo...
by patrick
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do we need an emergency fund?
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: Why do we need an emergency fund?

Not everyone "needs" an emergency fund. If you have access to sizable credit accounts and/or easily accessible taxable accounts, the need to keep a bunch of cash on hand is minimized. Like most personal finance topics, it depends on your situation, comfort level and net worth. Agreed. The...
by patrick
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do we need an emergency fund?
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: Why do we need an emergency fund?

As the great T-Shirt philosopher once said, "Stuff Happens." I actually substituted "Stuff" for a barnyard term, but you get the idea. Stocks are meant as a long term investment, you don't want a double whammy of a down market and a financial emergency. The emergency fund is a w...
by patrick
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do we need an emergency fund?
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: Why do we need an emergency fund?

I have a really "un-bogleheading" and stupid question: why we need an emergency fund? Or, in which case an emergency fund is used? Here's a scenario: you get the flu around Thanksgiving, and somehow it doesn't go away through the New Year. It turns into a sinus infection, and threatens to...
by patrick
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2097

Re: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?

Both gold and regular bonds have seen severe losses in real terms in living memory. Gold was at $850 on January 21, 1980. It was down to $255.95 on April 2, 2001. In nominal terms that is a 70% loss. However, $255.95 in April 2001 had the same purchasing power as $112.57 in January 1980. In other wo...
by patrick
Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to backup Mini-DV tapes?
Replies: 10
Views: 878

Re: How to backup Mini-DV tapes?

I would like to back-up the videos in these Mini-DV tapes without any loss in quality. My purpose is to archive the original information. Output file size is not a problem. Are you sure about that? MiniDV's bitrate with overhead is 29Mb/s or 3.6MB/s. For 30 minutes (just as an example) that would w...
by patrick
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?
Replies: 139
Views: 12936

Re: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?

It all depends on who you compare us to. There are plenty of people out there who think that the stock market is like a casino and any involvement with it is too risky. The "conservative" 60/40 portfolios you may see here are quite reckless by their standards.
by patrick
Sun Jun 11, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to archive DVD's (movies, etc) onto standalone unit
Replies: 10
Views: 806

Re: Want to archive DVD's (movies, etc) onto standalone unit

DSInvestor wrote:Vudu has a service called Disk to Digital that allows you to convert DVD movies to electronic format.


That is a rather bizarre (though somehow increasingly common) name for the service -- DVDs are already digital!
by patrick
Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake
Replies: 139
Views: 7766

Re: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake

So I really think most of the game here is avoiding the HR part. And since LR is defined as less than annually--seriously, how many people does that actually end up being here? Don't most people at least rebalance annually? In fact, the argument I often see is you SHOULD rebalance at least annually...
by patrick
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts about EMQQ for emerging markets
Replies: 5
Views: 549

Re: Thoughts about EMQQ for emerging markets

EMQQ tracks a narrow index limited to "internet or ecommerce" companies. This narrow subset of emerging market stocks might do better than a broad index, but it might do worse. Note also that EMQQ has a 0.86% expense ratio! If you want an emerging markets ETF that includes China N shares s...
by patrick
Tue May 30, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names
Replies: 30
Views: 3298

Re: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names

Well, you know my simple-minded approach. The article says Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEIEX, or VEMAX for Admiral shares) sucks, use iShares EEM instead. Now before I peek, I'll go out on a limb and say I am always skeptical of stories that say "Vanguard sucks because they use...
by patrick
Mon May 29, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???
Replies: 73
Views: 5919

Re: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???

There's nothing close about a $200 sign-up bonus from Penfed and one from Chase that was equal to $1,000 cash back, or $1,500 through their Ultimate Rewards portal. Nothing. And the Penfed card is 5x points on air travel only (and from my research, one point is less than one cent, often by a decent...
by patrick
Tue May 23, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice from FF miles experts
Replies: 25
Views: 2321

Re: Need advice from FF miles experts

I just searched for a one-way business-class ticket to a European destination, and it priced at $7750 or 60K miles (a value of 12.9 cents per mile). Whether or not your 70k for $620 tickets is one-way or roundtrip, you are getting nowhere near that redemption value. You are getting 0.89 cents per m...
by patrick
Wed May 17, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what is the catch with this 5% APY checking acct?
Replies: 6
Views: 1452

Re: what is the catch with this 5% APY checking acct?

Changes to the terms aren't just a hypothetical concern. All of these adverse changes to other special high interest accounts have happened within the past year: 1. One American Bank implemented a $5 minimum transaction amount (per purchase) for the 12 debit card purchases needed to qualify for 3.5%...
by patrick
Sat May 13, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with older laptop?
Replies: 32
Views: 3704

Re: What to do with older laptop?

Don't forget that just keeping a computer running is like leaving one or multiple light bulbs running. It is a measurable drain, so make sure you are getting value. It is measurable, but if you actually measure it you may be surprised at how low the power consumption of a laptop is. The last time I...
by patrick
Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Santander $225 bonus... delays?
Replies: 7
Views: 788

Re: Santander $225 bonus... delays?

I signed up for this and it took a couple of weeks for them to open the account. I got the direct deposit in late February and have not yet received the bonus. However there was also a 90 day requirement on the terms I saw so i presume the 30 day wait to get the bonus starts after that.
by patrick
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds May 2017
Replies: 66
Views: 8891

Re: I bonds May 2017

Oh, I see, you are saying that inflation can be far higher than 3.53% when averaged over a twenty year period. So, what 20 year period can you point to where inflation published by BLS for CPI-U was greater than 3.53% annually, again, this isn't for a 5 year period or a ten year period, but a 20 ye...