Search found 770 matches

by pascalwager
Sat Apr 15, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Portfolio Tilt
Replies: 18
Views: 1867

Re: International Portfolio Tilt

As a US resident only, in recent years, I've followed Larry Swedroe's recommendation to start with world market AA (46% int'l at present) and then increase a little to 50% to acknowledge present lower int'l valuations. He doesn't recommend going over 50% int'l unless you live part-time overseas. But...
by pascalwager
Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 5170

Re: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?

Why would Buffett describe his wife's 90/10 portfolio using the S&P 500 if he didn't consider it a learning opportunity for the average investor? Otherwise, why would we want to hear about her portfolio? (He has also stated that an S&P 500 investment only applies to someone with a 20-year o...
by pascalwager
Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 5170

Re: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?

Why would Buffett describe his wife's 90/10 portfolio using the S&P 500 if he didn't consider it a learning opportunity for the average investor? Otherwise, why would we want to hear about her portfolio? (He has also stated that an S&P 500 investment only applies to someone with a 20-year o...
by pascalwager
Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 7500

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

Bank cash provides 1.25% interest today. What is a better alternative when term and default risk are considered? Maybe buckets 1 and 2 should be all cash.
by pascalwager
Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 5170

Re: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?

Why would Buffett describe his wife's 90/10 portfolio using the S&P 500 if he didn't consider it a learning opportunity for the average investor? Otherwise, why would we want to hear about her portfolio? (He has also stated that an S&P 500 investment only applies to someone with a 20-year or...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 7500

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

So, as Dr. Milevsky has pointed out, bucketing actually exposes you to more risk from a bad sequence of returns. Reason: you are forced to draw down the safest assets (cash, bonds) and consequently this increases your relative equity allocation - increasing the overall risk of your portfolio. Smoke...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 7500

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

I would agree with the 3 retirement buckets. My buckets in retirement will be: -15% Short term bonds, 3 years of withdrawals (duration, 2-3 years) -25% Intermediate bonds, 5 years of withdrawals (duration, 5-6 years) -60% Stocks bill How does 15% of the portfolio always provide three years of Bucke...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 7500

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

I just got my SS statement in the mail the other day. It looks like SS benefits will more than cover our current annual expenses, so we don't need any safe buckets. That said, a 60/40 portfolio will work fine for everything else. Does that mean we have 3 buckets? 60% stocks, 40% bonds, and SS? I do...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman doesn't view me an a true investor
Replies: 20
Views: 1784

Re: Hussman doesn't view me an a true investor

I do agree with Hussmann when he says that we're (passive investors) not real investors. Bill Bernstein called passive "investing" a form of saving in one of his E-books. We actually ride on the coattails of real (active) investors (doing their own research) when we simply buy the total ma...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman doesn't view me an a true investor
Replies: 20
Views: 1784

Re: Hussman doesn't view me an a true investor

Reading Hussman seems fruitless and illogical for a passive investor.
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 4236

Re: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?

Folks get upset about bond funds not providing enough return. Those same folks get upset when the same fund starts providing higher returns (at the cost of a lower NAV). It seems to me that bond fund holders, particularly retired ones, are fickle friends. Of course they're upset if they need to ext...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TBM (total bond market)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2430

Re: Why TBM (total bond market)?

We pretty much bought TBM because it was the standard boglehead fixed-income fund to own. But my thinking has evolved to now want most risk to be on the equity side of the portfolio and keeping the fixed income side of it to be near-risk free. So now I am thinking that TBM has too much risk - inter...
by pascalwager
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does John Bogle think of TIPS?
Replies: 6
Views: 1729

Re: What does John Bogle think of TIPS?

In the Little Red Book, he only describes them, and their use in a low-cost fund--and writes that indexing isn't necessary because they're risk-free. They're available for someone who prefers to own them. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. I can't recall him mentioning them when he describes his own...
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Primecap Admiral Fund VPMAX
Replies: 14
Views: 1342

Re: Primecap Admiral Fund VPMAX

Since 1984, M* (growth of $10k):

Primecap $577k
Large Growth $178k
S&P 500 $289k
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 5181

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

Large : DFLVX
Small/Mid: DFFVX
Int'l Large: DFHBX
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ticker for Franklin Income VIP Fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 315

Re: Ticker for Franklin Income VIP Fund?

I had a similar problem with a VA having several sub-accounts and wanted the VA included in my spreadsheet using the GoogleFinance daily price update function. So I just used the tickers from similar funds from the same fund company in my spreadsheet. The VA was about 30% of my portfolio and over on...
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 115
Views: 10830

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

BTW- I've shown that the strategy would have worked very well even using one year Treasuries showing it's not dependent on bull market in bonds. Would have worked even better obviously with say 5 year maturities Larry Isn't this just one version of Taleb's "Black Swan" portfolio strategy?...
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % is US Market Cap?
Replies: 18
Views: 1692

Re: What % is US Market Cap?

William Sharpe uses CRSP and FTSE indexes for US and int'l total stocks in his personal global portfolio.
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund the most diversified

Yes, great tool, to be sure. But it won't convince me. I'll just assume that the software treats the growth exposure as negative compared to positive value exposure, and I can't accept that. There is no such thing as growth exposure distinct from value exposure in the model on which all of this dis...
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund the most diversified

Just a few comments First, for in reality, the fact is that while your small stocks and value stocks provide POSITIVE exposure the large and growth stocks give you NEGATIVE exposure to the same factors. So the NET exposure is zero. That is just fact, it's not opinion. It says nothing about being go...
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund the most diversified

Just a few comments First, for in reality, the fact is that while your small stocks and value stocks provide POSITIVE exposure the large and growth stocks give you NEGATIVE exposure to the same factors. So the NET exposure is zero. That is just fact, it's not opinion. It says nothing about being go...
by pascalwager
Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund the most diversified

Total market includes growth (30% or 50%) and value (30% or 50%) stocks. This combination includes the element (value) which provides the value premium, so total market must include the value premium. Total market includes large (70%) and small (10%) stocks. This combination includes the element (sm...
by pascalwager
Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund diversified?

Bogleheads: By any reasonable definition, an investor who owns a small and equal percentage of nearly every corporation in America is diversified in U.S. stocks. Best wishes Taylor But you've described an equal-weighted fund, not a cap-weighted fund. Was this intentional? Owning a market weighted i...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 3131

Re: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio

I would nitpick on this. In my view, retail investors (of all ages) have many differences due to law from institutional investors, due to which they should NOT blindly follow the global market portfolio especially WRT bonds. Dirghatamas, Bill Sharpe does. Right, I am all for understanding academics...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund the most diversified

After thinking about the concept of the equal-weighted total US market, the cap-weighted total US market doesn't seem so diversified anymore. Why? As dbr wrote well a few posts earlier, one needs to define "diversified" strictly, otherwise discussions become what shade of blue do you like...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund the most diversified

After thinking about the concept of the equal-weighted total US market, the cap-weighted total US market doesn't seem so diversified anymore. If I were a new investor, I might consider buying the equal-weighted market. Or if Vanguard had such a fund today, I might even transfer into it inside my IRA...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 01, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 14073

Re: Is a total market fund diversified?

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

By any reasonable definition, an investor who owns a small and equal percentage of nearly every corporation in America is diversified in U.S. stocks.

Best wishes
Taylor


But you've described an equal-weighted fund, not a cap-weighted fund. Was this intentional?
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Local Companies as an Asset Class?
Replies: 19
Views: 1332

Re: Local Companies as an Asset Class?

A former head of HUD recommended ignoring the S&P 500 (which she considered corrupt), and, instead, investing locally. In particular, she advised driving out to the edge of town and contacting local farmers who might be interested in expanding/developing niche or specialty businesses. I was disc...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 3131

Re: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio

global market portfolio + inflation protected portfolio (riskless). pascalwager, What's professor Sharpe's definition of the global market portfolio in this particular case? Just equities, or everything that's out there, including bonds etc.? And does he mean inflation protected LOCAL CURRENCY port...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 3131

Re: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio

William F. Sharpe touched on this recently when discussing his idea of the optimal portfolio: global market portfolio + inflation protected portfolio (riskless). One additional factor may be investor age. He said that young investors may want to hold more stocks than the global portfolio. (Also, you...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General, rock solid investment books
Replies: 7
Views: 670

Re: General, rock solid investment books

Note: Book titles are determined by the publisher, not the author.
by pascalwager
Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity for Bogleheads?
Replies: 21
Views: 2471

Re: Fidelity for Bogleheads?

Studies show lump sum, on average, provides better long-term investment returns than DCA. But look into the studies yourself, and then decide, considering your own temperament.
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

Here's another stealth idea.

I remember reading about a homeless man in San Francisco who used a sidewalk phone booth for his daily call to his broker to arrange trades. As it turned out, he was worth millions.
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen says No to Municipal Bonds
Replies: 21
Views: 3181

Re: David Swensen says No to Municipal Bonds

Most Bogleheads don't hold tax-exempt bonds; most Bogleheads don't have any substantial taxable portfolio at all so they can comfortably fit any bonds in tax-deferred space. But, yes, I doubt many (any?) Bogleheads with large taxable portfolios follow Swensen on this one. I have munis as my taxable...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: should I try to replicate total stock market in my 401k with S&P, small, and mid caps?
Replies: 9
Views: 728

Re: should I try to replicate total stock market in my 401k with S&P, small, and mid caps?

I'd probably do something like 70/20/10 and use the quarterly automated rebalancing option if you have that. If not, then just do annual rebalancing for less stress.
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

Great news, Bogleheads! Yet another doctor with a website (Smart Money MD) has weighed in on the topic. Stealth Wealth Revisited -- This Applies to Doctors, Too! If you'd rather not click -- and I know many of you would rather not -- I'll share the comment I left here, which was partially shaped by...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I find this whole thread (though I didn't read every page/post) fascinating and filled with bizarre claims and judgments about money and happiness. Happiness is too subjective to be tied in any objective way to money/spending. It's a Zen thing. Who am I to say to say that the guy who spends $80k on...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I find this whole thread (though I didn't read every page/post) fascinating and filled with bizarre claims and judgments about money and happiness. Happiness is too subjective to be tied in any objective way to money/spending. It's a Zen thing. Who am I to say to say that the guy who spends $80k on...
by pascalwager
Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

Isn't it kind of insulting to people who are struggling when financially independent people dress up and play poor? Isn't there some middle ground between "dress up and play poor" and "engage in conspicuous consumption?" It's as if you've created some kind of false dichotomy whe...
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 4154

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

The last I heard, the world stock/bond ratio was about 40/60. This would constitute Sharpe's risky portfolio. Alongside would be his riskless portfolio, TIPS.

He recommends this mainly for older investors. Younger investors might want more stocks and less TIPS.
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 4154

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Thanks for the link. Sounds like Mr. Sharpe would be happy with one of Vanguard's target-date or LifeStrategy funds as the main course, with a helping of TIPS on the side. He wants VG to create a fund-of-funds using the four US/int'l total market stock/bond funds. Sharpe personally used CRSP and FT...
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I come out only at night, but still remain in the shadows. My last car was almost 24 years old. I'm in my 70's, but still wear some clothes from high school. When my sneakers are ready for the trash, I just use them for yard work. I dislike redeeming any portfolio assets and consider portfolio grow...
by pascalwager
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I come out only at night, but still remain in the shadows. My last car was almost 24 years old. I'm in my 70's, but still wear some clothes from high school. When my sneakers are ready for the trash, I just use them for yard work. I dislike redeeming any portfolio assets and consider portfolio grow...
by pascalwager
Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 6028

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

I just stick with the Total Bond Market Index and hope for the best. So far it has done what it is supposed to do for me. Also, Vanguard still has faith in this fund because it is used in all their Target Date Funds, Lifestyle Funds and the Balanced Index mimics it. John Bogle has often said the av...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 56352

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I come out only at night, but still remain in the shadows. My last car was almost 24 years old. I'm in my 70's, but still wear some clothes from high school. When my sneakers are ready for the trash, I just use them for yard work. I dislike redeeming any portfolio assets and consider portfolio growt...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 14, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 6028

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

Does anyone know what rationale Jack Bogle gave for holding a 50:50 portfolio of short and intermediate bond funds (a recommendation that I agree with)? I cannot find a transcript or video of his conversation that deal with those specific comments.The available documentation only deals with his com...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 6028

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

I just stick with the Total Bond Market Index and hope for the best. So far it has done what it is supposed to do for me. Also, Vanguard still has faith in this fund because it is used in all their Target Date Funds, Lifestyle Funds and the Balanced Index mimics it. John Bogle has often said the av...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 6028

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

@pascalwager That' a very large slug of cash. Why so much? galeno, Yes, I'm about 80/5/15, stocks/bonds/cash. I'm not much of a bonds guy and naturally gravitate towards a portfolio that's comprised of equity risk and ultra short-term risk (T-Bills, savings, I-Bonds). Because T-Bill rates are low, ...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 6028

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

@pascalwager That' a very large slug of cash. Why so much? galeno, Yes, I'm about 80/5/15, stocks/bonds/cash. I'm not much of a bonds guy and naturally gravitate towards a portfolio that's comprised of equity risk and ultra short-term risk (T-Bills, savings, I-Bonds). Because T-Bill rates are low, ...

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