Search found 673 matches

by pascalwager
Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Damodaran: CAPE is no-good horrible & a market timing spreadsheet
Replies: 9
Views: 897

Re: Damodaran: CAPE is no-good horrible & a market timing spreadsheet

Not a passive investor. Isn't satisfied with future market returns and picks companies.
by pascalwager
Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie
Replies: 41
Views: 4444

Re: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie

A friend's younger brother came to me for advice upon receiving a sizeable (mid six figures) financial inheritance. Suffice it to say that this young man fits the profile of someone who will blow through these funds within a couple years, at most. He has minimal income from part-time minimum wage j...
by pascalwager
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends, and the curse of popularity
Replies: 91
Views: 6215

Re: Dividends, and the curse of popularity

The article's contention that the preference for dividends is misguided is, in my opinion, wrong. It depends what you consider to be the purpose of a corporation. I think a mature public corporation exists for the purpose of paying out a portion of its earnings anually to its owners. A start up or ...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed income strategy
Replies: 17
Views: 1702

Re: Fixed income strategy

According to David Swensen: REITs are midway between bonds and stocks, a hybrid. So returns should be expected to fall between bonds and stocks.
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr Bernstein: Limit Muni Bond Exposure
Replies: 110
Views: 13667

Re: Dr Bernstein: Limit Muni Bond Exposure

It's my understanding that Dr (William) Bernstein is now recommending that investors limit their taxable fixed income holdings to no more than 50% muni bonds. The rest should be treasuries and/or FDIC bank CDs. This seems like new advice. I wonder what the other great minds here think about this. A...
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 30% Money Market in an "Income" Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1279

Re: Why 30% Money Market in an "Income" Fund

Fidelity freedom index seems to be the only mf company that does this to such a marked degree. I like their TR index funds until they get close to retirement, but that much cash just doesn't make sense to me. Yet another reason that you always look at a Target Date funds composition, not just its d...
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 30% Money Market in an "Income" Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1279

Re: Why 30% Money Market in an "Income" Fund

Looks like the short term funds are being used to determine (shorten) the overall duration of the fixed income components (76%).
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 07, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 84
Views: 7358

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

sometimes I wonder if Elon Musk opens a branch of the New York Stock Exchange on Mars, everyone will feel the need to add Interplanetary diversification to their portfolio.. <sigh> Feelings would be irrelevant. The solar market would determine its identity as, perhaps, an emerging market. Then it m...
by pascalwager
Sat Aug 06, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 84
Views: 7358

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I like Larry Swedroe's reasoning: Start at global market weighting and then add/subtract after considering personal liabilities. Presently, international is 46% of global, so I hold 50% international after considering certain personal cash flows subject mainly to domestic risks. Because internationa...
by pascalwager
Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me learn to love my taxable account
Replies: 27
Views: 3394

Re: Help me learn to love my taxable account

My first stocks account was taxable. I had lump-summed a few $100k from my T-Bill collecting career. A little later I began to play catchup in a tax-sheltered account.

Also, my advisor did no TLHing, maybe because he only used DFA funds.
by pascalwager
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds - Update
Replies: 55
Views: 4315

Re: International Bonds - Update

I have a little money (0.4%) in the DFA five-year global bond fund which has four-year duration. I might add another 0.4% every so often by selling stocks if I'm so inclined. I mainly view bonds as stabilizers, not income producers. I wouldn't use the Vanguard Int'l Index fund--too much duration for...
by pascalwager
Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities = musical chairs?
Replies: 93
Views: 3947

Re: Equities = musical chairs?

The OP probably wasn't investing using BH principles. She was probably selecting stocks and market timing. But she declines to discuss this, so we can only assume. Once the esteemed Taylor Larimore adopted passive investing principles, he experienced good success over the decades. If there were no s...
by pascalwager
Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilts?
Replies: 32
Views: 1611

Re: Tilts?

Most of my portfolio is tilted--two DFA accounts set up in 1995. In fact, every component fund is either a small or value fund except for the emerging markets fund. The other 1/3 of my portfolio is comprised of Vanguard total market funds. This overall approach satisfies me, although I kind of backe...
by pascalwager
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just bought into a Target Retirement Fund 2060. Now what?
Replies: 22
Views: 2042

Re: Just bought into a Target Retirement Fund 2060. Now what?

Oh! I just thought of a scenario. So what if a few years pass and I want to re-balance my Target Retirement Funds even though I know Vanguard will do this for me. Will I be able to liquidate say International Stocks entirely and then buy more shares of Domestic stocks freely and turn this into a 'c...
by pascalwager
Fri Jun 17, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 8514

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

I listened to the Webinar today. Great webinar. He is so refreshing to listen to. Sharp as a tack. The one thing that kind of shocked me was she asked him a question about bonds and he said basically that "if" you could "handle the volatility of the stock market, you don't really nee...
by pascalwager
Fri Jun 17, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 8514

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

Bloomberg , not regarded as a source of hyperbole, published this article that bolsters the case for owning bonds: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-10-31/bonds-beating-u-s-stocks-over-30-years-for-first-time-since-19th-century 30 years of underperformance by stocks vs. bonds is an entire...
by pascalwager
Sun Jun 12, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Malkiel and "tilting"
Replies: 3
Views: 647

Re: Question about Malkiel and "tilting"

In his book he considers small growth stocks to have higher risk and unsuitable for an elderly widow.
by pascalwager
Mon Jun 06, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Signs You Own the Right Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 3107

Re: Signs You Own the Right Portfolio

raven15 wrote:(1) and (11) are contradictory.

After years of reading Bernstein I decided that perhaps I should include 8% (1/12) of my portfolio as gold miner equity, last October. Wow, I didn't expect that! Need to keep a lid on that sucker...


I think he recommends about 3% gold miner.
by pascalwager
Thu May 12, 2016 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 2 — Choosing Portfolio Bond Duration
Replies: 42
Views: 6218

Re: Classic Bernstein 2 — Choosing Portfolio Bond Duration

Here's one BH who owns only Treasury funds (Short, Intermediate and TIPs) - purposely done for the reasons covered earlier in this thread: - I use bonds strictly as an an anchor for the equity side of the portfolio - If I want to take more risk in search of more return, I'll do so on the equity sid...
by pascalwager
Sat Apr 09, 2016 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios
Replies: 41
Views: 5308

Re: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios

Malkiel is arguing for an overweight to credit risk. It is definitely an active call, but as far as active calls go it is not necessarily disastrous or wrong. Bogle has advocated for a credit tilt, too. This active call is not a huge break from Malkiel's previous thinking. He's also argued for a su...
by pascalwager
Sat Apr 09, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios
Replies: 41
Views: 5308

Re: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios

Well, I misread Malkiel in the old days. It is easy to forget that in every edition, he has both advocated for index funds and expounded his own strategy for stockpicking. The first edition actually had a chapter entitled "The Malkiel Method for Selecting Individual Common Stocks" (encaps...
by pascalwager
Sun Apr 03, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 6467

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Warren Buffet does seem to really stand by the 10% short-term bonds (cash) figure. He followed up by saying, explicitly, that holding 20, 30, or 40% bonds is "silly". I believe what Buffet is leaving to his wife is 90% S&P 500 and 10% short term Treasuries? In any event her 10% short ...
by pascalwager
Sun Apr 03, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 6467

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

... I have a hard time seeing how most investors, for example, retirees with a 4% withdrawal rate, can comfortably weather a major downturn with only 10% in cash reserves. Buffett, as all right thinking people, recommends broad low cost index funds, but 99% of people shouldn't be 90% equities. As a...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 26, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiels Recommended Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3907

Re: Malkiels Recommended Portfolio

In his latest book The Elements of Investing (written with Charles Ellis), they recommend a simple portfolio of Total World Stock Index and Total Bond Index. Malkiel recommends 75-90% in the stock fund for someone in their 20's and 30's. Ellis, who views inflation as a big threat, is more aggressiv...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiels Recommended Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3907

Re: Malkiels Recommended Portfolio

In his latest book The Elements of Investing (written with Charles Ellis), they recommend a simple portfolio of Total World Stock Index and Total Bond Index. Malkiel recommends 75-90% in the stock fund for someone in their 20's and 30's. Ellis, who views inflation as a big threat, is more aggressiv...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 19, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bond funds do you use, and why?
Replies: 55
Views: 4366

Re: What bond funds do you use, and why?

Age 73: currently 90% stocks, 5% bonds, 5% cash. I have a pension that covers my living expenses, so all of the stocks are in my risk portfolio. The bonds are two VG short and intermediate Treasury funds allocated (approx. in a 1:2 ratio) to provide an overall duration of four years. The bonds/cash ...
by pascalwager
Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% US Equities argument: "We spend in Dollars"
Replies: 49
Views: 4957

Re: 100% US Equities argument: "We spend in Dollars"

I stumbled on a Warren Buffett interview recently that gives a little more information on his recommended 90/10 portfolio for individual investors (including, but not only, his wife). He states that the 10% short-term government bonds is to be used to provide living expenses when stocks are depresse...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did various assets become "conventional wisdom?" Request for your input!
Replies: 20
Views: 2400

Re: When did various assets become "conventional wisdom?" Request for your input!

In 1995 I was exposed to the three-factor model through an investment tutorial booklet. This was soon after I had lumped-sum into two DFA accounts (and still have them). So I held international small company, US small company and US small value funds at that time. Then in 1997 the investment company...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 16, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fortune: Stock Tumble: If You're Reading This It Is Not Too Late
Replies: 23
Views: 4337

Re: Fortune: Stock Tumble: If You're Reading This It Is Not Too Late

...The fact is, most investors cannot tolerate the full brunt of a bear market psychologically, and will end up doing the perfectly wrong thing at the most inopportune time. You will see how many newly-minted Vanguardians and robo-clients vomit up their equity portfolios toward the end of whatever ...
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 9992

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

I wonder why they're warning us and who they're actually addressing? The entire global investment community, or only RBS customers? After arriving at a very dismal conclusion about the prospects for the global economy, I guess the warning was simply a natural human response. I only begin to accept e...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 7783

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

I'm 93% stocks. That's my risk portfolio (RP).

The remaining 7% bonds, plus checking and savings, plus my pension, is my liability matching portfolio (LMP).

My RP (100% stocks) can't be either under- or over-weighted--by definition.
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?
Replies: 26
Views: 4677

Re: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?

I only use bond barbells to reduce the duration of the typical intermediate bond fund.
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what age did you stop reinvesting dividends?
Replies: 45
Views: 5027

Re: At what age did you stop reinvesting dividends?

Still reinvesting dividends at age 73. I would probably be reluctant to take dividends (redeem stock shares) in a down market--i.e., selling low.
by pascalwager
Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Bogle's bond portfolio advice?
Replies: 40
Views: 4462

Re: Thoughts on Bogle's bond portfolio advice?

Or, to keep investing simple, one could invest in Vanguard's Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund, which is approximately a 50/50 split between Treasuries and Corporates. I would think this an even better idea. I haven't seen this fund before. This looks perfect! Not as risky as the investment grade f...
by pascalwager
Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Bogle's bond portfolio advice?
Replies: 40
Views: 4462

Re: Thoughts on Bogle's bond portfolio advice?

Also, read what Mr. Bogle says in the Little Red Book about tailoring your own term risk. For example, a retiree might want to own more of the Short Term Bond Index Fund plus TBM. Straight TBM might be more appropriate for someone in their 50's. And he isn't really giving advice, just highlighting a...
by pascalwager
Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we call it "investing"?
Replies: 35
Views: 3679

Re: Why do we call it "investing"?

Stock ownership (secondary market) is not investing, but it is the main investment enabler through price appreciation. The stock market incentivizes IPOs, which are the true investments. Without the secondary market, there would be no primary market. So stock ownership is still part of the investmen...
by pascalwager
Fri Dec 25, 2015 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Purist
Replies: 43
Views: 4049

Re: John Bogle Purist

I don't have a two-fund portfolio, but I do have two separate portfolios.

One portfolio is DFA (nine funds/two accounts) and the other is VG total market (TSM and TISM across three accounts). Both are managed separately. The DFA is twice as large as the VG.
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 22, 2015 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your current asset allocation?
Replies: 94
Views: 7119

Re: Share your current asset allocation?

Stocks (93%) 14.6% TSM 14.6% TISM 63.8% DFA (LV,SV,SC,ILV,ISC,EM) Bonds (7%) 1.7% ST Treasury bond fund 3.4% IT Treasury bond fund 1.9% US I Bonds 33% taxable, 67% tax-sheltered Age 73 with pension (intend to increase bonds to 10% if market doesn't beat me to it). Also have bank HY savings (1.05%) a...
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF or Fund - Which Do You Use?
Replies: 40
Views: 3498

Re: ETF or Fund - Which Do You Use?

I buy regular funds only. ETFs seem tricky to buy and seemingly have more complicated tax considerations.
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?
Replies: 28
Views: 3376

Re: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?

Note: The article is from 2009. Also, I find it hard to believe the other portfolio is Larry's personal portfolio. I can't imagine him owning VG Value funds–large or small–when he has access to DFA and many others. The article only specifically says Malkiel's portfolio is in 2009 was his own. The o...
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns
Replies: 118
Views: 11045

Re: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns

Larry's article could certainly be valuable to someone who needs a guide for determining his/her future AA.

I had one question about EM as 25% of int'l capitalization. The current VG TISM EM portion is 17.8%. Is the 25% figure some kind of long-term average?
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?
Replies: 28
Views: 3376

Re: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?

Note: The article is from 2009. Also, I find it hard to believe the other portfolio is Larry's personal portfolio. I can't imagine him owning VG Value funds–large or small–when he has access to DFA and many others. The article only specifically says Malkiel's portfolio is in 2009 was his own. The o...
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?
Replies: 28
Views: 3376

Re: Opinions on Burton Malkiel's personal portfolio?

Note: The article is from 2009.

Also, I find it hard to believe the other portfolio is Larry's personal portfolio. I can't imagine him owning VG Value funds–large or small–when he has access to DFA and many others.
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I follow Jack Bogle in "I don't do International"
Replies: 90
Views: 9127

Re: Should I follow Jack Bogle in "I don't do International"

A debate this muddled with opinion essentially means it doesn't matter. It will likely not have a material effect one way or the other if you add small international exposure. I hold no international personally. Just do what you're comfortable with. This sums it up nicely. To the OP, also, when you...
by pascalwager
Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reinvest or put in money market
Replies: 11
Views: 1401

Re: reinvest or put in money market

nbseer wrote:I recently started having dividends in my tIRA sent to money market.. then if I want more of that specific bond or stock fund just buy when prices dip rather than reinvesting at various prices.

Market timing?
by pascalwager
Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gliding To Small Value
Replies: 15
Views: 2030

Re: Gliding Small Value Tilt

During retirement you typically don't have small company job risk, so this may be the ideal time to adopt small company investment risk.
by pascalwager
Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 528
Views: 63948

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

No!!!! Terrible experience and now back to W8.1!
by pascalwager
Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Rick Ferri Interview
Replies: 12
Views: 4523

Re: Great Rick Ferri Interview

He says the active High Yield fund is better because it has more holding and is lower cost than the index funds that are available. Yes, I got that and I agree. Just commenting on the interview title (from the interviewer, not Rick) and some of Rick's comments. With his 100% equity comment he also ...
by pascalwager
Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's Portfolio
Replies: 197
Views: 67922

Re: Rick Ferri's Portfolio

Someone on BH mentioned recently that Rick has gone from 80% to 100% stocks. He expects to have two pensions plus SS.
by pascalwager
Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life
Replies: 60
Views: 7061

Re: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life

I'm 93% stocks and 7% bonds at age 73 and retired. I'm thinking of increasing to 90% stocks and 10% bonds. Hmmmm...quite a bit of risk for someone with your username. The high stock percentage is greatly reduced (to about 55%) when I include the calculated PV of my pension as a part of my portfolio...

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