Search found 863 matches

by pascalwager
Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2360

Re: Going passive is an active decision

There are some here who say that if you deviate whatsoever from a global cap weighted stock position that you are an active investor. I don't buy that. What I do buy into are the 'cost matters hypothesis' and indexes. William F. Sharpe, a major proponent of passive investing, recognizes the possibl...
by pascalwager
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11713

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Pascalwager, Written by longinvest: I use total-market index funds to invest into four selected types of investment-grade securities: domestic stocks, international stocks, domestic nominal bonds, and domestic inflation-indexed bonds. I do not include international bonds (currency-hedged or not) in...
by pascalwager
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11713

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Written by longinvest: I use total-market index funds to invest into four selected types of investment-grade securities: domestic stocks, international stocks, domestic nominal bonds, and domestic inflation-indexed bonds. I do not include international bonds (currency-hedged or not) into my portfoli...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11713

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Note: This is a copy of a post I made in another thread: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio" . I think that it is relevant to the topic of this thread. ------------ I recently found this passage in Sharpe's RISMAT-7 to be pretty compelling: To see this, consider a simple policy calling for a mix of...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1126

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

. . . This portfolio idea, with the more complete international fund, looks a lot like the Vanguard Target funds and LifeStrategy funds. Closest to it is probably Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX). Yes, but the Target and LS Funds allocations are not market-weighted. You probably a...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1126

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

The latest RISMAT update is May 2017, but Sharpe didn't update the Vanguard int'l stock fund to the newer global all-cap index version, which surprised me. Personally, I purchased the newer all-cap fund with no hesitation.
by pascalwager
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5536

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

I don't know what you mean by "part of the portfolio" unless you're referring to corporate bonds, which you seemed to prefer to omit. Here's my original post: Kevin DiCiurcio: From a portfolio construction standpoint, choosing corporates or choosing non-market-cap-weighted exposure, you generally d...
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5536

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

I don't know why you should be annoyed, if you're really a passive investor. The market portfolio should be a first principle for passive investors, but maybe best suited for retirees. I'm not a passive investor, but do consider passive to be the default starting point. The argument I quoted seems ...
by pascalwager
Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5536

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

If you're a passive investor, you invest in the "total" market, which happens to include corporate bonds. If you're an active investor, then you can add and omit asset classes. It seems to me that we must actively choose which asset classes to invest in. Even Sharpe has omitted or underweighted com...
by pascalwager
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5536

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

Kevin DiCiurcio: From a portfolio construction standpoint, choosing corporates or choosing non-market-cap-weighted exposure, you generally do it for two reasons. First would be for diversification. When you add corporates to a Treasury bond portfolio, it actually results in a portfolio that exhibit...
by pascalwager
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5536

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

Very good bond overview by DiCiurcio--best I've seen. Should be watched/read by all novice investors and maybe those not-so-novice.
by pascalwager
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5536

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

No mention of TIPS which is disappointing. Also, this discussion deviates from the notion of "take your risk on the equity side." Risk management via different flavor of bonds is not something recommended for personal investors much around here. Sometimes, with Vanguard, one wonders who the audienc...
by pascalwager
Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 90
Views: 6007

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

First of all, I don't care about cash as dry powder. I consider that to be active "investing" (betting) and market timing. In fact, I've stopped reading/recommending/quoting most of the "BH authors" as they all advise forms of active investing. They apparently don't really think that passive investi...
by pascalwager
Mon Aug 07, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should TBM Be Your Only Bond Fund?
Replies: 33
Views: 4917

Re: Should TBM Be Your Only Bond Fund?

TBM is the broad-based US bond market (roughly). HY funds are imprudent bets and not really investing.
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Non-US AA
Replies: 6
Views: 627

Re: Vanguard Non-US AA

There is an open question relative to investor identity. The world market reflects the views of the average global investor. So, I asked Bill Sharpe about this and he pointed out that a US retiree would get a correcting tilt from shorter-term US treasuries using the companion riskless portfolio whi...
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Non-US AA
Replies: 6
Views: 627

Re: Vanguard Non-US AA

In the past there's been speculation on BH about Vanguard's reason for bumping up non-US stocks and bonds, but they explain right here: From an equity perspective, fixed income and equity, rather, we tend to follow a market cap-proportional approach, which is what we advocate, but we understand inv...
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Non-US AA
Replies: 6
Views: 627

Re: Vanguard Non-US AA

"Italy is c. 25% of all Eurozone government bonds, for example." Hmm. Makes me think "market cap" is not the ideal metric for government debt in an international bond portfolio. It would mean loading up on debts of the most profligate and imprudent. According to Vanguard, the credit dumping risks a...
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Non-US AA
Replies: 6
Views: 627

Vanguard Non-US AA

In the past there's been speculation on BH about Vanguard's reason for bumping up non-US stocks and bonds, but they explain right here: From an equity perspective, fixed income and equity, rather, we tend to follow a market cap-proportional approach, which is what we advocate, but we understand inve...
by pascalwager
Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Horizon Impact on Bond Selection
Replies: 10
Views: 869

Re: Time Horizon Impact on Bond Selection

For retirees with sometimes 70% of assets in fixed income, bond funds are a needed source of income in addition to being a ballast and providing poor correlation (not always) with equities. I hope not everyone buys the mantra of bonds are for stability exclusively for all investors. I get tired of ...
by pascalwager
Fri Aug 04, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoogleFinance ticker problems with IShare funds
Replies: 4
Views: 350

Re: GoogleFinance ticker problems with IShare funds

Yes, SHY doesn't seem to work for price. Did you try Sheets Help Report a Problem under Help?

My fund prices work, but they've been time delayed the last few days--about ten hours.
by pascalwager
Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

A little off topic..... Why does Vanguard have these Global Bond Funds available only to Non Us investors? https://americas.vanguard.com/institutional/mvc/detail/mf/overview?portId=9136&assetCode=BOND##overview This has been brought up in the forum before, but doesn't usually go anywhere. I'm guess...
by pascalwager
Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Since I'm not the typical retiree it's possible that I may consider a more aggressive portfolio as described above, but right now I'm satisfied with the actual market portfolio and won't make any changes until the next quarter. After studying Sharpe's Adaptive AA paper, I decided that I understood ...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8190

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

Prediction articles like this just encourage market timing, or endless analysis. Why even post them on a passive investing site?
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

I've got 48.8% int'l bonds (% of bonds) as of today. Vanguard Portfolio Watch says: "OK. Your investments in foreign bonds are adding appropriate diversification to your portfolio." It's not an exciting asset and shouldn't be. Bill Sharpe just says they might add some diversification. The ...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

It's possible to modify the market portfolio to provide a more/less risky portfolio by adjusting the ratio of stocks to bonds. Sharpe developed a simple formula for implementing his Adaptive Asset Allocation (AAA). Graphically, the modified portfolio rides above (or below) the market portfolio and h...
by pascalwager
Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?
Replies: 33
Views: 3333

Re: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?

You're right. I am chasing performance. And I guess this butts up against the Boglehead philosophy. But, 10 years from now, when I see that certain managed mutual funds that specialize in international stocks have continued to trounce VXUS as they have these past 10 years don't you think I'm going ...
by pascalwager
Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?
Replies: 33
Views: 3333

Re: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?

Since inception on 5/1/2001 growth of $10K for Dodge and Cox International has been $35.0K versus $23.3K for VG Total International. I'm not good with images but the morningstar graph indicates DODGX total return was never below VG total international 5/1/2001 to date for growth of 10K. m Total ret...
by pascalwager
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?
Replies: 33
Views: 3333

Re: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?

Select the index that you want to follow and then confirm the prospective fund's R-squared value. It should be close to 1.00 which indicates conformance to the index. VTIAX has an R-squared of 0.98, so you probably don't like this fund's index if you're dissatisfied with the returns. You could study...
by pascalwager
Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

I asked Bill Sharpe about the issue Saints has raised (above) regarding the differences between a given investor/retiree and the "average global investor" (presumably including large institutional investors) and he considers it an important point, and that it may well justify some tilt aw...
by pascalwager
Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Indices
Replies: 14
Views: 1565

Re: International Indices

Looks like VTWSX is using market weight somewhere around 44%. Could be the right number, we'll know in a few years. It's not actually "using" market weight. It's capitalization-weighted, and that results in a current market weight of about 47% non-US. If you believe in cap-weighting, then...
by pascalwager
Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where should I save my money?
Replies: 8
Views: 1130

Re: Where should I save my money?

My Synchrony Bank savings is currently 1.2%. Better than a CD because you can always add to it periodically. Dump in the lump sum and keep contributing. I've used Ally as well in the past but I find Synchrony stays ahead on rates. Rather use a savings account than a CD any day, especially if the sa...
by pascalwager
Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Indices
Replies: 14
Views: 1565

Re: International Indices

What international indices most closely compare to the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ? I would like to become familiar with and track the most relevant international indices so I can see how the ex-US market is doing in the same way I can the US market. Like many on here I have become wrapped up in ...
by pascalwager
Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

I asked Bill Sharpe about the issue Saints has raised (above) regarding the differences between a given investor/retiree and the "average global investor" (presumably including large institutional investors) and he considers it an important point, and that it may well justify some tilt aw...
by pascalwager
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

I asked Bill Sharpe about the issue Saints has raised (above) regarding the differences between a given investor/retiree and the "average global investor" (presumably including large institutional investors) and he considers it an important point, and that it may well justify some tilt awa...
by pascalwager
Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

So, if the world market consisted of yourself and the Harvard endowment fund, you would duplicate their allocation, although you have completely different objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon. Doesn't this make you suspect something is not right ? Now that would be a new world market! The durat...
by pascalwager
Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Because he's the average investor and the market portfolio risk is the average risk of the market. No, he is not! The 100T capitalization of the workd market is not made of 100's of million of retail investors, each with a few 100's of thousands worth portfolios, but by a few thousansd of very larg...
by pascalwager
Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Bogleheads - I feel as if there is somewhat of a change in the opinions and overall thoughts regarding international bonds over the past couple of years. Previously, it appeared that the forum was overwhelmingly against this assets class. However, this asset, and Vanguard Total International Bond I...
by pascalwager
Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Yes, the Sharpe world bond/stock portfolio is a risk portfolio and not a riskless portfolio. In fact, the estimated std dev is 12.50. Sharpe does suggest that it be held along with a riskless portfolio, typically TIPs. It's recommended as a default portfolio, especially for many retirees, but not n...
by pascalwager
Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Sharpes argument is that this is a risk less portfolio. Meaning you are getting what is happening in the world. It's mainly advocated for people in retirement. This is crazy! That portfolio is riskless only relative to the overall risk in the world's financial markets. Why would a retiree put himse...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 36
Views: 4186

Re: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio

Are the various fifty, one hundred, one hundred fifty national markets so tightly linked, so free of friction due to e.g. currency exchange, and equilibrate so quickly (e.g. between U.S. stocks and Argentine bonds) that they really act as a single "global market?" nisiprius, No, they are ...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8397

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Tilting is just active management where you as the overall portfolio manager are making broad decisions about portfolio composition, rather than delegating the decision to traditional active managers. I've heard this before and disagree. Active management is generally taken to mean deviating from a...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31768

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

For the record, the Taylor Larimore three fund portfolio includes an International Stock Index. Taylor as far as I know invests Internationally himself. My guess is that he sticks close to Mr. Bogle's 20% recommendation. Taylor shares his international allocation from time to time. He does not appe...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Aren't you the one making the bet with all this risk portfolio mumbo jumbo ? If I need 100k in five years and have the funds to buy a 100k ZC with a 5 years maturity, is there any good reason for instead buying a portfolio 57% stocks and 43% bonds and with bonds containing 3-month bills from France...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Aren't you the one making the bet with all this risk portfolio mumbo jumbo ? If I need 100k in five years and have the funds to buy a 100k ZC with a 5 years maturity, is there any good reason for instead buying a portfolio 57% stocks and 43% bonds and with bonds containing 3-month bills from France...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

According to Sharpe: A risk portfolio "is a portfolio of securities that provides uncertain future real returns." To me, this includes a portfolio of stocks and bonds, where the bonds are not TIPs, or I Bonds, or foreign versions of the latter. Thank you. So any portfolio not exclusively ...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Thesaints wrote: Still I don't understand why you care that someone in Singapore is buying intermediate term japanese bonds. It could be an off-shore wealth management company with financial targets completely different from yours. Why should their taste in bonds influence your own ? This is immater...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Yet, for some strange reason, you feel that for bonds each individual investor should replicate the world distribution. Currencies, maturities, risks, etc. as if each individual investor had the very same needs as all the other investors. In fact, why not push this line of reasoning even further: T...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31768

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Excoriating the OP for presenting facts that don't agree with some unstated "conclusion" that others have drawn on a contentious strategy is ridiculous. Probably best to remind people of what Taylor often says, “When experts disagree, it is often because it does not make a foreseeable dif...
by pascalwager
Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8090

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

The market amount of int'l bonds is presently 21%. Any other allocation is betting, not investing. Care to explain why you don't carry (I assume) ¥ and £ banknotes in your wallet ? I assume you're alluding to currency risk. It's my understanding that this risk doesn't apply to long-term investors (...
by pascalwager
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31768

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

If you invested only in US stocks during this 24 year period, then your bet did pay off. But it's still a bet. US stocks are currently only 30% of a world bond/stock market portfolio. Mr. Bogle was indisputably great for creating Vanguard and low-cost index investing; but why should we think that he...