Search found 236 matches

by paper200
Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morgan Stanley explains why the S&P500 wins
Replies: 13
Views: 2072

Re: Morgan Stanley explains why the S&P500 wins

Because the new companies that are added to the index typically have much higher margins than both the companies removed and the surviving constituents ...with faster prior revenue and earnings growth, and higher margins, the stocks added to the index typically have performed much better over the f...
by paper200
Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again
Replies: 68
Views: 6765

Re: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again

Nice job mss. Looks very good.
by paper200
Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Refrigerator issues - Temperature & Other
Replies: 22
Views: 1489

Re: Refrigerator issues - Temperature & Other

We have a Sears Refrigerator for the last 15 years. Roughly 6 years into its life we saw a similar problem. Since it is frost free excess humidity is removed as condensed water via a drain near/below the freezer coils. The tube that removes the water if it is iced will create the problems you see. E...
by paper200
Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again
Replies: 68
Views: 6765

Re: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again

:oops: Kitchen remodel suggestions. Should have read this prior to my previous post. But nevertheless suggestions welcome
by paper200
Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again
Replies: 68
Views: 6765

Re: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again

We are planning a small Kitchen (20Ft length base + 8ft wall cabinets) re-modelling without changing the flooring in <6 weeks installation process. We want new cabinets (all wood), counter top (quartz), lights (LED), backsplash, appliances (30" gas stove, Miele dishwasher, <33" inch wide f...
by paper200
Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy to buy expensive house
Replies: 67
Views: 5231

Re: Strategy to buy expensive house

800K mortgage @4% interest results in a $3800 monthly payment. High RE Tax area (NY/NJ) >24,000/year for 1M house. Federal/State Taxes on a 200K income 35-40K/year. Left with only 90-95K for expense and savings. Lucky appreciation of RE (4 to 6%/year) = buy the 1M house if you cannot save >50K per y...
by paper200
Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Jack Bogle: The Undisputed Champion of the Long Run
Replies: 19
Views: 3024

Re: WSJ - Jack Bogle: The Undisputed Champion of the Long Run

The quote from the article I love it:

Mr. Bogle is no idolater of the management art, not even his own. “I think a lot about leadership and I’ve come to the conclusion, by and large, it’s overrated, and that includes you know who.”
by paper200
Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 21684

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

That the OP came to this board for suggestions itself answer his questions - cautious and level headed. It is very unlikely OP is going to go the way Mike Tyson. Follow Larry's 3 fund advise modified for Taxes and sip martini's :beer to decide on the charities/making use of the hard earned, but a wi...
by paper200
Sun Aug 28, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]
Replies: 133
Views: 8742

Re: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]

Just a toy for fun. The T1i does a pretty good job with inexpensive f4/f5.6 lenses. In most instances photo quality directly correlate to the photographer not the instrument. For portraits and wide angle shots the cell phone camera is pretty decent when viewed through a 22" diagonal or smaller ...
by paper200
Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]
Replies: 133
Views: 8742

Re: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]

Though a year old - Interesting thread. So, what was the outcome - kept the 6D? I have a T1i for a long time with primes (35, 50, 400) and zoom (70-200) -does a good job for a hobby. 6D MKII is what I am waiting for so that 6D MKI will be on further sale - FF, good sensor, light. Just like OP the 5D...
by paper200
Sat Aug 20, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdrawal method proposal -- Part 1: guiding principles and intent
Replies: 24
Views: 2234

Re: Withdrawal method proposal -- Part 1: guiding principles and intent

Curious - do you have data for the market (Stocks/Bonds) returns in Brazil during the inflationary period? To account for an average portfolio (0.5-2M) minus RE to survive during the time period 1981-89 seems to be difficult unless like in Japan (1980's to date) a portion is invested (diversified) o...
by paper200
Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 8993

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

I was in the audience for the long movie epic 2000-2010, it was was long, chilling, exhilarating, free fall, white knuckle, strapped to seat with unsure ending and no exit lights working. Bulk of my accumulation was during this period and made me a very conservative investor. The light at the end of...
by paper200
Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6845

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

A previous post suggested that in terms of Total Returns the Japanese stock market over 27 years maybe better than the index value suggests - very interested to see data, any links or reference?
by paper200
Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to help mother prepare for retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 2046

Re: Trying to help mother prepare for retirement

It seems like you already have a pretty good handle. A suggestion would be to invest the IRA's/401K's in a Vanguard 2020/2025 fund since in 1.5 years RMD's will kick in. If the RMD plus SS can take care of the expenses for 10-20 years then the remaining cash can simply be put in a Vanguard Balanced ...
by paper200
Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets
Replies: 49
Views: 4762

Re: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets

Very conservative approach and too much pessimism from 2003 through 2011 coupled with buy/high sell low. Stopped reading sky is falling articles.
Saving grace is high savings rate and prudent spending habits. Organizing a plan for the kids so that history does not rhyme.
by paper200
Sun Mar 13, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Boglehead investing an FFT vs Time strategy ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1109

Re: Is Boglehead investing an FFT vs Time strategy ?

An interesting thought. But conceptually, as a question, if one did a transform the time domain 500 index values would one not get the individual stock prices or their weight variations/fluctuations, i.e. frequency domain are the stocks comprising the 500 index?
by paper200
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 7223

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

Looks like Dr. Reich did not realize the the chart was excluding dividends reinvested. Its unfortunate that he did not look into this deeper and added more confusion than necessary. Hopefully, someone would have pointed out the facts to him. Further, a balanced portfolio would have done better. In m...
by paper200
Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 8470

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

Sai - A savings rate of 1/4 to 1/3 of gross income and a balanced portfolio yielding (1.5-2% real) will, hopefully, provide for a reasonable retirement portfolio. Personally, I started late in the game due to loving college campus life and at an early stage into speculation (buy high, sell low). The...
by paper200
Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 657
Views: 24981

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

S&P 500 @ 2200 end of 2016
by paper200
Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your current asset allocation?
Replies: 94
Views: 7208

Re: Share your current asset allocation?

In taxable, IRA and 401k's (Ages 54/52) Bonds (45% Muni, 25%TBM, 9% Ibonds, 12% International, 8%Cash) 43.2% Balanced (Target 2020 (2/3) & Wellesley (1/3)) 15.8% Stocks ( 52% US, 9% Small; 28% International, 11%Small/Emerging) 34.8% REIT/GLD (2:1) 6.3%
by paper200
Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we like dividends?
Replies: 159
Views: 17866

Re: Why do we like dividends?

Thanks for the interesting conversation. I was curious about Buffet's #'s and worked it out - this is how they look. In theory, either way is fine as long as dividends are reinvested (ignoring any tax consequence). If the rate of return on dividend re-investment is less than business return then the...
by paper200
Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Partnering with Yodlee
Replies: 153
Views: 24256

Re: Vanguard Partnering with Yodlee

I enrolled with Yodlee with Vanguard as mandated to aggregate my accounts. It worked fine the first couple of days in November following enrollment. However, starting Nov 28 it went a little crazy. The Vangaurd accounts work fine and after a couple of days the Fidelity account started showing the c...
by paper200
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Article [Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain]
Replies: 30
Views: 3116

Re: Bloomberg Article [Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain]

Active traders are like hamster spinning the wheel. The active hamsters are racing each other and setting the pace (index value), we indexers need to sit back and light a Cuban.
by paper200
Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you explain investing to friends?
Replies: 30
Views: 2947

Re: How do you explain investing to friends?

Even when asked it is very tough to give financial leave alone investment advise. You are met with skepticism and their eyes tell you - how come you are not wealthy jet setting individual? WJB's - "How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly", as another poster had indicated, is the probably the b...
by paper200
Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there
Replies: 75
Views: 8305

Re: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there

Bill Bernstein's three booklets ("The Ages of the Investor", Skating Where the Puck Was" and "Deep Risk") delves into, though not explicitly, the terms "Expectation" with its associated companion "Dispersion" pretty clearly. Larry also points this out ver...
by paper200
Thu Oct 15, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [article on effect of missing 5 best or worst days of the year]
Replies: 30
Views: 2619

Re: Would you risk an 88% loss for a 2,438% gain?

Nice power point slide for extracting 2% from OPM. And if you luck out the 20% additional money from OPM :moneybag
by paper200
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 7808

Re: Who's selling now?

The question is who is buying now?
by paper200
Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?
Replies: 95
Views: 11426

Re: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?

For the Uber-rich, I guess, the glass is too full to see the halfway mark let alone the bottom. So no worries. I guess even if they get to the bottom they will not know what hit them! :(
by paper200
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 18
Views: 2182

Re: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

Nisi brilliant!

If we were "checksumming" (whatever it means in programming) constantly we would be robots. Consequently, being human, for most, if i may, reality constantly erases anticipation.
by paper200
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you start investing in the Market?
Replies: 60
Views: 4342

Re: When did you start investing in the Market?

Saving for 25 years, speculating for 15 years. Lucky did not lose much. Investing for about 7 years.
by paper200
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 2008/09 has done to me
Replies: 158
Views: 21744

Re: What 2008/09 has done to me

. Post by sawhorse » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:34 pm mspadorchard wrote: I have wondered in the recent past about why a very very large high tech company would implode and rapidly dismantle their great research teams and effectively therefore send the company into a downhill spiral. If they were having ha...
by paper200
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession
Replies: 157
Views: 30449

Re: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession

I started a real job at 32 (grad school etc) with a 1 year old and no money. DW did not start work until our son was 4. So when our son was about 3, thinking about future hit us :oops: coupled with potential job uncertainity. So a change in attitude made us save and be frugal. Now we don't have any ...
by paper200
Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 278
Views: 33195

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Average age 53; 50:50. Was very conservative for long time. Stocks for the long run and possibly next gen. Bonds for the short run. One of us hope to work until 60.
by paper200
Sun Apr 19, 2015 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you help me solve this brainteaser about allocation?
Replies: 55
Views: 3610

Re: Can you help me solve this brainteaser about allocation?

If there is a 95% loss (total loss in your example) in the "risky" asset, then it is likely there will be no such "risk free" left at that point. I believe the only time, last 100 years, when the market (USA) had a compounded loss was during great depression - 80%. Other places l...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 114803

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

by tadamsmar » Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 pm paper200 wrote: I am with Rick on this and our Intl/US stock ratio is 0.52. The Vanguard Target dates are all at 0.41 for the same quantity. Rick's ratio is 0.43, so why do you say you are with Rick? Here is Rick's allocation in his own words: Currently, 70%...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 114803

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Interesting thesis by Rick. The returns (two sets of arbitrary dates) are as follows: Years TSM Total intl TBM 30:20:50 Wellington Wellesley (72-95) 11.8% 14.4% 9.00% 11.3% 11.3% 11.4% Std Dev 17.5% 23.2% 6.20% 10.2% 13.3% 10.2% (96-14) 8.70% 4.90% 5.40% 7.00% 9.00% 8.00% Std Dev 19.1% 21.8% 3.40% 9...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 784
Views: 477056

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

Fantastic! Many Thanks. Learnt something new
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 784
Views: 477056

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I am curious if someone else ran into this problem. The below noted formula when cut and paste from Simba spreadsheet (Excel 1997-2003) does not work in Excel 2010. I am reasonably familiar with Excel formulas but now 'am lost. Even just the product function with the % added or just PRODUCT(1+B8:B20...
by paper200
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Separating 5-10 yr investments from retirement portolio
Replies: 26
Views: 1913

Re: Separating 5-10 yr investments from retirement portolio

TDG - i think allocation is fine. The 90k can also be kept in vanguard income target date fund look into it,
by paper200
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Net Worth Investing
Replies: 84
Views: 12284

Re: High Net Worth Investing

OP's issue is more than an investment issue. It is behavioral/psychological. Reaching a goal at an early age and not wanting black swan event(s) to cause a retreat from the mountain top is the root problem. A lot of us go through the same, albeit with lesser number of zeros, and Bogleheads Forum pro...
by paper200
Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 34524

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Last year began very badly for the fund (-130%) so we have decided to change name and promise an even worse start. Since we only had the patience to go through the first page listing of Russell 2000 list we will rename the fund as Dr A's Wealth Fund, (here y(our) wealth and health are more important...
by paper200
Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 114803

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

FWIW: After starting to read this post, I checked the Vanguard Target retirement portfolios this is how they have positioned: (Additional sig. figure included to line up numbers). Basically, Vanguard is keeping ratio of US/International fixed at 0.42 for Stocks and 0.25 for bonds. Anyone knows the b...
by paper200
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?
Replies: 60
Views: 9797

Re: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?

Owned it from about 2002/3 until 2012 with DCA during early part of the investment. Did not feel the returns as the investment was in our taxable portion.
by paper200
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 557
Views: 30288

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

S&P on 31st December 2015 :confused - 1852
by paper200
Sat Dec 27, 2014 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: How do you make important investment decisions?
Replies: 27
Views: 3240

Re: POLL: How do you make important investment decisions?

Simple ideas. Lost :moneybag on anything other than simple ideas
by paper200
Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trend following
Replies: 80
Views: 5884

Re: trend following

Momentum charts are post hoc anyways. However, they look very tempting. Generally, we need to figure out when to time (decision point time) the time (execution time) for buying( or selling) and then the momentum direction (prediction at decision point time and during actual execution). So for a prof...
by paper200
Fri Nov 14, 2014 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What NW amount makes this person financially free?
Replies: 19
Views: 2842

Re: What NW amount makes this person financially free?

Get adopted by or married to a fabulously wealthy person. Life is made and is a solution to #3
by paper200
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 10116

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

Atleast OP and spouse are not rebalancing their gains and losses! When one has a lot of water at hand they can play with fire.
by paper200
Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I choose "The Majesty of Simplicity" for my signature
Replies: 42
Views: 23937

Re: Why I choose "The Majesty of Simplicity" for my signatur

This quote caught my eyes; LeBron James says (maybe many previously): "It's how you make money when you're asleep that's going to get you there." http://www.fool.com/ecap/the_motley_fool/lebron-james-the-next-warren-buffett/?paid=7394&psource=esatab7410860116&waid=8445&wsource=...

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