Search found 221 matches

by paper200
Sun Mar 13, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Boglehead investing an FFT vs Time strategy ?
Replies: 16
Views: 976

Re: Is Boglehead investing an FFT vs Time strategy ?

An interesting thought. But conceptually, as a question, if one did a transform the time domain 500 index values would one not get the individual stock prices or their weight variations/fluctuations, i.e. frequency domain are the stocks comprising the 500 index?
by paper200
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 6817

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

Looks like Dr. Reich did not realize the the chart was excluding dividends reinvested. Its unfortunate that he did not look into this deeper and added more confusion than necessary. Hopefully, someone would have pointed out the facts to him. Further, a balanced portfolio would have done better. In m...
by paper200
Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 7815

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

Sai - A savings rate of 1/4 to 1/3 of gross income and a balanced portfolio yielding (1.5-2% real) will, hopefully, provide for a reasonable retirement portfolio. Personally, I started late in the game due to loving college campus life and at an early stage into speculation (buy high, sell low). The...
by paper200
Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 656
Views: 17842

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

S&P 500 @ 2200 end of 2016
by paper200
Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your current asset allocation?
Replies: 94
Views: 6292

Re: Share your current asset allocation?

In taxable, IRA and 401k's (Ages 54/52) Bonds (45% Muni, 25%TBM, 9% Ibonds, 12% International, 8%Cash) 43.2% Balanced (Target 2020 (2/3) & Wellesley (1/3)) 15.8% Stocks ( 52% US, 9% Small; 28% International, 11%Small/Emerging) 34.8% REIT/GLD (2:1) 6.3%
by paper200
Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we like dividends?
Replies: 159
Views: 16686

Re: Why do we like dividends?

Thanks for the interesting conversation. I was curious about Buffet's #'s and worked it out - this is how they look. In theory, either way is fine as long as dividends are reinvested (ignoring any tax consequence). If the rate of return on dividend re-investment is less than business return then the...
by paper200
Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Partnering with Yodlee
Replies: 141
Views: 19467

Re: Vanguard Partnering with Yodlee

I enrolled with Yodlee with Vanguard as mandated to aggregate my accounts. It worked fine the first couple of days in November following enrollment. However, starting Nov 28 it went a little crazy. The Vangaurd accounts work fine and after a couple of days the Fidelity account started showing the c...
by paper200
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Article [Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain]
Replies: 30
Views: 2881

Re: Bloomberg Article [Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain]

Active traders are like hamster spinning the wheel. The active hamsters are racing each other and setting the pace (index value), we indexers need to sit back and light a Cuban.
by paper200
Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you explain investing to friends?
Replies: 30
Views: 2645

Re: How do you explain investing to friends?

Even when asked it is very tough to give financial leave alone investment advise. You are met with skepticism and their eyes tell you - how come you are not wealthy jet setting individual? WJB's - "How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly", as another poster had indicated, is the probably the b...
by paper200
Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there
Replies: 75
Views: 7523

Re: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there

Bill Bernstein's three booklets ("The Ages of the Investor", Skating Where the Puck Was" and "Deep Risk") delves into, though not explicitly, the terms "Expectation" with its associated companion "Dispersion" pretty clearly. Larry also points this out ver...
by paper200
Thu Oct 15, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [article on effect of missing 5 best or worst days of the year]
Replies: 30
Views: 2492

Re: Would you risk an 88% loss for a 2,438% gain?

Nice power point slide for extracting 2% from OPM. And if you luck out the 20% additional money from OPM :moneybag
by paper200
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 7315

Re: Who's selling now?

The question is who is buying now?
by paper200
Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?
Replies: 95
Views: 10853

Re: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?

For the Uber-rich, I guess, the glass is too full to see the halfway mark let alone the bottom. So no worries. I guess even if they get to the bottom they will not know what hit them! :(
by paper200
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 18
Views: 2095

Re: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

Nisi brilliant!

If we were "checksumming" (whatever it means in programming) constantly we would be robots. Consequently, being human, for most, if i may, reality constantly erases anticipation.
by paper200
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you start investing in the Market?
Replies: 60
Views: 3995

Re: When did you start investing in the Market?

Saving for 25 years, speculating for 15 years. Lucky did not lose much. Investing for about 7 years.
by paper200
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 2008/09 has done to me
Replies: 158
Views: 20721

Re: What 2008/09 has done to me

. Post by sawhorse » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:34 pm mspadorchard wrote: I have wondered in the recent past about why a very very large high tech company would implode and rapidly dismantle their great research teams and effectively therefore send the company into a downhill spiral. If they were having ha...
by paper200
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession
Replies: 157
Views: 29335

Re: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession

I started a real job at 32 (grad school etc) with a 1 year old and no money. DW did not start work until our son was 4. So when our son was about 3, thinking about future hit us :oops: coupled with potential job uncertainity. So a change in attitude made us save and be frugal. Now we don't have any ...
by paper200
Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 278
Views: 31054

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Average age 53; 50:50. Was very conservative for long time. Stocks for the long run and possibly next gen. Bonds for the short run. One of us hope to work until 60.
by paper200
Sun Apr 19, 2015 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you help me solve this brainteaser about allocation?
Replies: 55
Views: 3324

Re: Can you help me solve this brainteaser about allocation?

If there is a 95% loss (total loss in your example) in the "risky" asset, then it is likely there will be no such "risk free" left at that point. I believe the only time, last 100 years, when the market (USA) had a compounded loss was during great depression - 80%. Other places l...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 486
Views: 105977

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

by tadamsmar » Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 pm paper200 wrote: I am with Rick on this and our Intl/US stock ratio is 0.52. The Vanguard Target dates are all at 0.41 for the same quantity. Rick's ratio is 0.43, so why do you say you are with Rick? Here is Rick's allocation in his own words: Currently, 70%...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 486
Views: 105977

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Interesting thesis by Rick. The returns (two sets of arbitrary dates) are as follows: Years TSM Total intl TBM 30:20:50 Wellington Wellesley (72-95) 11.8% 14.4% 9.00% 11.3% 11.3% 11.4% Std Dev 17.5% 23.2% 6.20% 10.2% 13.3% 10.2% (96-14) 8.70% 4.90% 5.40% 7.00% 9.00% 8.00% Std Dev 19.1% 21.8% 3.40% 9...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 748
Views: 454484

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

Fantastic! Many Thanks. Learnt something new
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 748
Views: 454484

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I am curious if someone else ran into this problem. The below noted formula when cut and paste from Simba spreadsheet (Excel 1997-2003) does not work in Excel 2010. I am reasonably familiar with Excel formulas but now 'am lost. Even just the product function with the % added or just PRODUCT(1+B8:B20...
by paper200
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Separating 5-10 yr investments from retirement portolio
Replies: 26
Views: 1794

Re: Separating 5-10 yr investments from retirement portolio

TDG - i think allocation is fine. The 90k can also be kept in vanguard income target date fund look into it,
by paper200
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Net Worth Investing
Replies: 84
Views: 11835

Re: High Net Worth Investing

OP's issue is more than an investment issue. It is behavioral/psychological. Reaching a goal at an early age and not wanting black swan event(s) to cause a retreat from the mountain top is the root problem. A lot of us go through the same, albeit with lesser number of zeros, and Bogleheads Forum pro...
by paper200
Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 32601

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Last year began very badly for the fund (-130%) so we have decided to change name and promise an even worse start. Since we only had the patience to go through the first page listing of Russell 2000 list we will rename the fund as Dr A's Wealth Fund, (here y(our) wealth and health are more important...
by paper200
Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 486
Views: 105977

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

FWIW: After starting to read this post, I checked the Vanguard Target retirement portfolios this is how they have positioned: (Additional sig. figure included to line up numbers). Basically, Vanguard is keeping ratio of US/International fixed at 0.42 for Stocks and 0.25 for bonds. Anyone knows the b...
by paper200
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?
Replies: 60
Views: 9413

Re: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?

Owned it from about 2002/3 until 2012 with DCA during early part of the investment. Did not feel the returns as the investment was in our taxable portion.
by paper200
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 557
Views: 26943

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

S&P on 31st December 2015 :confused - 1852
by paper200
Sat Dec 27, 2014 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: How do you make important investment decisions?
Replies: 27
Views: 3158

Re: POLL: How do you make important investment decisions?

Simple ideas. Lost :moneybag on anything other than simple ideas
by paper200
Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trend following
Replies: 80
Views: 5625

Re: trend following

Momentum charts are post hoc anyways. However, they look very tempting. Generally, we need to figure out when to time (decision point time) the time (execution time) for buying( or selling) and then the momentum direction (prediction at decision point time and during actual execution). So for a prof...
by paper200
Fri Nov 14, 2014 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What NW amount makes this person financially free?
Replies: 19
Views: 2754

Re: What NW amount makes this person financially free?

Get adopted by or married to a fabulously wealthy person. Life is made and is a solution to #3
by paper200
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 9554

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

Atleast OP and spouse are not rebalancing their gains and losses! When one has a lot of water at hand they can play with fire.
by paper200
Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I choose "The Majesty of Simplicity" for my signature
Replies: 42
Views: 23587

Re: Why I choose "The Majesty of Simplicity" for my signatur

This quote caught my eyes; LeBron James says (maybe many previously): "It's how you make money when you're asleep that's going to get you there." http://www.fool.com/ecap/the_motley_fool/lebron-james-the-next-warren-buffett/?paid=7394&psource=esatab7410860116&waid=8445&wsource=...
by paper200
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1896

Re: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation

This song "time" from dark side of the moon album says it all "You are young and life is long and there is time to kill today. And then one day you find ten years have got behind you. No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun. " Yes early savings and at a maximum p...
by paper200
Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 9948

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

I ran with the following algo for many years before realizing a typo was yielding non optimal result

Do 1 to m, m years
Buy high
Sell low
Next m
by paper200
Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh
Replies: 17
Views: 3495

Re: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh

The best in a long time. In reality Wall Street wants your sweat :moneybag with obfuscation of the truth that they really don't know......
by paper200
Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engagement Ring - Diamond Help
Replies: 61
Views: 5523

Re: Engagement Ring - Diamond Help

Blue Nile and Costco are both really good. BN for high end diamonds. I bought from both places for DW on the 25th anniversary early part of this year. This forum was very useful in providing guidance. All other places i looked were expensive and lower quality. One thing is for sure with diamonds one...
by paper200
Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 27506

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Dave is giving "Balanced" advise to his flock -some good some bad- you pick the allocation. :D We nerds can't stand the fact that people still go for it. I knew a colleague in 07/08 who loved Ben Stein... I did not follow up though.
by paper200
Wed May 28, 2014 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?
Replies: 49
Views: 5456

Re: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?

I want to retire today (age 52), DW says nooooooo, So plan after 60. Want to enjoy life as it becomes shorter as we grow older. Have roof and food and auto to drive around which better than most in the world! Love watching "buying properties in Hawaii..." And dream about the permanent 80F ...
by paper200
Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

He is an old school person - Kindle e.t.c. will not be suitable.
by paper200
Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

Thanks for the suggestions. My FIL lives outside US. We have been able to directly contact Eschenbach Optical who have provided list of retailers/docs to contact for high power magnifiers.

Once again Thanks to all.
by paper200
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

Hi Thanks for all your replies. MY FIL has Macular degeneration of the eyes and has reading difficulties. He right now needs a minimum of 3-5X magnification to read and, therefore, the hand held magnifying glass that is 2 inches or bigger to ease his reading effort. We have looked and researched a l...
by paper200
Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

We are looking for a 6X or higher magnification with diameter more than 2 inches good quality hand held magnifying glass for my Father-in-law. We have looked into Schweizer and Eschenbach. Any recommendation will be helpful. Googled a lot but still not comfortable.

Thanks
by paper200
Sun Apr 06, 2014 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 4% rule and a dynamic retirement spending plan"
Replies: 14
Views: 2492

Re: "The 4% rule and a dynamic retirement spending plan"

Trying to have a fixed spending $X in retirement from a portfolio (<20X) that will fluctuate is a tough proposition if the portfolio is to survive for >20 years. Spending has to be a variable year to year. Spending $ for next fiscal year likely will depend on investment returns the current/past fisc...
by paper200
Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do billionaires use active managers? Any that don't?
Replies: 28
Views: 3623

Re: Why do billionaires use active managers? Any that don't?

Once a boss always a boss : Powerpoint is what they are used to - lose money the managers will have an impressive powerpoint justifying why they did not lose anymore and if they make :moneybag same powerpoint story asking for bonuses and take more risk to make even more :moneybag Any that don't has ...
by paper200
Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Super Bowl Theory Hold Up This Time?
Replies: 27
Views: 5027

Re: Will the Super Bowl Theory Hold Up This Time?

I am leaveraging 300% since it will be blow out! :idea: :moneybag :sharebeer
by paper200
Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 18671

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

[(Removed) --admin LadyGeek] someone moved the dartboard! :oops: :twisted:
My clients are now going sue me for not anticipating blockbuster clinical trial data :annoyed
by paper200
Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 537
Views: 19611

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Dec 31st 2014 - S&P 500 will be at 2125

and a sack :moneybag awaits.......... :oops: .wake up you are not in Wall Street :oops:

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