Search found 4277 matches

by ogd
Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 52
Views: 4109

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

Here's a total return chart for S&P 500 from PerfCharts: link . Unfortunately no adjustment for inflation. I'm not really aware of a good source that makes inflation-adjusted total return charts (if anybody has a source of data like that, please tell me :happy). The S&P has returned 88% ove...
by ogd
Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks
Replies: 8
Views: 984

Re: 100% stocks

The idea that the entire world of businesses (the world's economic engine) will collapse but somehow bonds (which come finally from this economic engine) will survive, has never made sense to me. But they have, again and again. The Great Depression was as great of a collapse as we're likely to see,...
by ogd
Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 52
Views: 4109

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

https://www.facebook.com/RBReich/posts/1153236374688957:0 I'm just curious to get bogleheads feedback on the current market we have been in. Do you feel that this is something that will persist such as Japan? The S&P has returned 88% over the past exact 15 years if we include dividends. That's ...
by ogd
Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fired my FA. What to do with individual Munis?
Replies: 11
Views: 940

Re: Fired my FA. What to do with individual Munis?

I finally transferred my assets (well all except 44K in an illiquid hedge fund that my Merrill adviser put me into that I'm stuck with for now) to Vanguard. I'm left with 13 individual munis that are around $350,000. They range in maturity from 2019-2030. I would prefer not to have individual munis...
by ogd
Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 56
Views: 5783

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

And the interest rate of a bond that has already been issued doesn't change when "interest rates" change. Most of the bonds in Total Bond were issued several years ago, and for several years to come the yield of Total Bond will reflect the interest rates of the last few years, not today's...
by ogd
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads TLH indicator for market timing
Replies: 3
Views: 539

Re: Bogleheads TLH indicator for market timing

Why not go to the source of that signal? The stock market itself, which is why the TLH threads are popping up. Then you can come up with patterns like this favorite of mine . Yes, I'm being a little snarky, but the existence of the "bearish abandoned baby" and the rest of the TA menagerie ...
by ogd
Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market > Tax-Exempt Bond Fund?
Replies: 39
Views: 2314

Re: Total Bond Market > Tax-Exempt Bond Fund?

I hope I'm not hijacking this thread. Realizing that the potential benefit of munis varies by the prevailing interest rates (for both taxable and non-taxable bonds) what is the general rule of thumb regarding the lowest tax bracket at which tax- exempts make sense most of the time? Disclosure: 25% ...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab vs Vanguard
Replies: 27
Views: 2243

Re: Schwab vs Vanguard

Is this a roundabout way of saying "other customers who are put into high expense funds are subsidizing my higher customer service"? Should that give you a little pause? If nothing else, maybe a survivor / friend / forum member will be on the wrong side of that cost shift. No it's saying ...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) getting killed
Replies: 52
Views: 4961

Re: 401(k) getting killed

I don't understand the point in staying invested in stocks within mutual funds when we all know they are gonna make us wish we hadn't over the next several years. I'd rather keep the money than lose it. I understand the importance of timing the bottom of the bear market, but I feel the bottom is ye...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH: Just down lots or all? Does it matter?
Replies: 14
Views: 1060

Re: TLH: Just down lots or all? Does it matter?

1) Should I exchange just the Total Stock lots with losses (-47k) or sell them all (+1k)? My inclination is to exchange all the shares so I end up with only 2 funds representing my US equities instead of 3, since my gain is easily covered elsewhere. Just the losses, absolutely. If selling everythin...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH: Just down lots or all? Does it matter?
Replies: 14
Views: 1060

Re: TLH: Just down lots or all? Does it matter?

In fact I'm underwater on that purchase, by enough that I'm thinking of TLH again. To properly TLH (immediate buyback) I'd need more than 2 equivalent funds for each asset class. I'm wondering if I need to modify my buyback timer to be based on moving average or somesuch instead of waiting 31 days....
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) getting killed
Replies: 52
Views: 4961

Re: 401(k) getting killed

I figure the best fund for me would be a balanced fund where the stock portion is invested in stocks like AT&T, Verizon, etc. These are stocks that seem to weather crisis very well and at the same time pay awesome dividends. But these types of stocks are rare. Most blue chips are getting killed...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance into bonds during a falling market?
Replies: 8
Views: 682

Re: Rebalance into bonds during a falling market?

My question now is that due to the recent correction equities seem like a bargain (at least compared to before), and selling equities now just seems wrong, even if it is to get to my preferred AA. So should I at least temporarily stop selling equities, or "stay the course" and work toward...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab vs Vanguard
Replies: 27
Views: 2243

Re: Schwab vs Vanguard

Vanguard has outstanding mutual funds with very low cost. That low cost comes at a price. Twentieth century IT and customer service in the 21st century. As InvestorNewb observed the other companies have been lowering their fees to compete. But without lowering their standards. They can lower their ...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab vs Vanguard
Replies: 27
Views: 2243

Re: Schwab vs Vanguard

Don't forget you are asking this on a Vanguard forum. :happy It's not a Vanguard forum per se, but they do have the best funds for a boglehead and they will advise using them by default, even for investors that are completely hapless. We do have a pretty good view of Schwab and Fidelity around here...
by ogd
Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab vs Vanguard
Replies: 27
Views: 2243

Re: Schwab vs Vanguard

I ask this because I have just inherited some stocks in a Schwab account. I'm looking to open up a Roth IRA and move some (not all) funds from single stocks in this inherited taxable account into Vanguard Index funds in this new Roth IRA. I would love to hear the thoughts of the Bogleheads. Vanguar...
by ogd
Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [REVISED] Losing money to change asset allocation?
Replies: 14
Views: 977

Re: [REVISED] Losing money to change asset allocation?

I made the mistake of assuming past results equate to future returns. Yes, this is a mistake. (Speaking of which, how does one make financial planning goals if we can't assume future returns will be similar to past returns? A random tangent question that I have for bogleheads) One tries to look for...
by ogd
Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EUR hedged world ETF for Eurozone Boglehead - yay/nay/why?
Replies: 1
Views: 126

Re: EUR hedged world ETF for Eurozone Boglehead - yay/nay/why?

Why am I considering paying extra for hedging? The (currently) strong USD , especially given the size of the US markets. I'd rather not bet on currency fluctuations (which is made possibly by hedging), but if I have to, I wouldn't want to put my money on the USD continuing its rally (which I indire...
by ogd
Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interest rates since the Fed rate increase in December
Replies: 1
Views: 250

Re: Interest rates since the Fed rate increase in December

Yes. Longer term yields have gone down because of the market unpleasantness. This is when it's helpful to disambiguate between "Fed overnight rates" (short, as seen on TV) and "bond yields" (of various terms). The term "interest rates" mashes them into a confusing soup....
by ogd
Fri Feb 05, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$
Replies: 42
Views: 3141

Re: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$

I used Third Ave as an example to highlight that there is a false sense of liquidity surrounding mutual funds/efts and they were still fresh on my mind. It's not necessarily a false sense of security -- the mutual funds really do have more tools at their disposal than you would. They can: 1) Cancel...
by ogd
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Sector Funds vs TSM Advice
Replies: 2
Views: 164

Re: Investing in Sector Funds vs TSM Advice

I know this is more work and a more complex portfolio and the expense ratios are slightly higher (.10% vs .05%), but I'm a engineering dork and kind of enjoy following the market. I mainly use ETF's so I can place Limit Orders (and have a little fun) instead of just buying Mutual Funds and their &q...
by ogd
Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't bond funds go down?
Replies: 27
Views: 3441

Re: Why didn't bond funds go down?

Some rates are going negative. (eg. BOJ, Germany) Rates can't go negative unless someone is willing to buy them. Other than someone betting rates will fall even farther, who would buy negative yield bonds? Someone who needs to store 100 million Euros for next quarter's business spending. They have ...
by ogd
Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FSEVX Distribution [Fidelity Spartan Extended Market]
Replies: 25
Views: 1237

Re: FSEVX Distribution

The question still remains; why did this fund make a large capital gain distribution in 2015 when the Vanguard equivalent did not? If it's not index turn-over and not shenanigans, than what is the explanation? Lack of ETF dual share structure is a very good candidate for the reason (see wiki ). I s...
by ogd
Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX vs FSTVX [Vanguard vs. Fidelity Total Stock Market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1329

Re: VTSAX vs FSTVX

Because a total stock market fund is probably going to be the biggest holding for many, and because a lot of us have substantial taxable accounts, I think that this piece of information is very important in considering where you want to hold your taxable assets. It would appear that Vanguard has a ...
by ogd
Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX vs FSTVX [Vanguard vs. Fidelity Total Stock Market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1329

Re: VTSAX vs FSTVX

The differences (while not as great as the OP states) are as far as I know due to two reasons: Vanguard returns securities lending income to shareholders, which has pretty much erased the ER as of late and accounts for e.g. the $100 / $10K difference in the graph two posts above. This past year was ...
by ogd
Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to compare "Yields" between bond fund and bond ladder?
Replies: 14
Views: 678

Re: How to compare "Yields" between bond fund and bond ladder?

There is also a "barbell" duration, where the portfolio is over-weighted on the short and long term bonds, but under-weighted in the middle. If the yield curve moves in parallel it does not matter which one you chose. However, if it doesn't.... If long term yields were to raise quicker th...
by ogd
Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$
Replies: 42
Views: 3141

Re: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$

My options; I can have a ladder built and actively managed by a major brokerage/bank for 20 bps/year or use a bond fund/ETF with an expense of 12-15bps/yr. The former comes with the typical perks associated with being a private bank client but assuming that bond fund vs bond ladder were the same in...
by ogd
Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to compare "Yields" between bond fund and bond ladder?
Replies: 14
Views: 678

Re: How to compare "Yields" between bond fund and bond ladder?

Nah, I think scalability is actually the point of the hypothetical I was putting out there. I actually think it defeats the small size argument. Since expenses and trader-hours scale, you have to answer the question of why large funds don't simply scale up a small fund. There's a limited capacity. ...
by ogd
Mon Feb 01, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to compare "Yields" between bond fund and bond ladder?
Replies: 14
Views: 678

Re: How to compare "Yields" between bond fund and bond ladder?

The real question is whether somebody handling tens of millions can exploit opportunities that somebody handling tens of billions can't really bother to take. IMHO that is very plausible seeing as some other retail investors now and then take a haircut dumping illiquid bonds on the secondary market...
by ogd
Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't bond funds go down?
Replies: 27
Views: 3441

Re: Why didn't bond funds go down?

When the Fed raises interest rates, bond funds are supposed to go down. Yet Total Bond Market is up over 1% already this year. Can someone explain this? Bonds are so confusing! Interest rates (as seen on TV, meaning Fed overnight) and bond yields (longer) are not the same thing. The latter anticipa...
by ogd
Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't bond funds go down?
Replies: 27
Views: 3441

Re: Why didn't bond funds go down?

When the Fed raises interest rates, bond funds are supposed to go down. Yet Total Bond Market is up over 1% already this year. Can someone explain this? Bonds are so confusing! Interest rates (as seen on TV, meaning Fed overnight) and bond yields (longer) are not the same thing. The latter anticipa...
by ogd
Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2524

Re: How do ETFs work?

Some of my Vanguard ETFs paid out capital gains at the end of 2015. What that a mistake by Vanguard? Were they bond ETFs? That is common, as you know, even for bond ETFs. Many have to sell bonds that roll off the bottom of their targeted duration. Also -- distributed capital gains are still better ...
by ogd
Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads referenced
Replies: 80
Views: 6742

Re: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads reference

Yes, but you've selected Bill Ackman's hedge fund after that performance occurred. If it hadn't, we'd simply be talking about somebody else. I can select a roulette winner that returned 1000x, and it wouldn't make playing the game any smarter. Or in other words, consider this thought experiment: I ...
by ogd
Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is VTIAX performing? [Vanguard Total International Stock]
Replies: 50
Views: 6835

Re: How is VTIAX performing? [Vanguard Total International Stock]

Haven't look into this fund in several years, are you guys buying more? holding or maybe sell? return seems pretty low? Is it still a good fund to hold for long term? "Return seems" / "return is" is the wrong mindset. What we know is that "return has been" and that pas...
by ogd
Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads referenced
Replies: 80
Views: 6742

Re: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads reference

Does Ackman not understand how a cap weighted index fund works? Kid dynamite recently called this out in response to Ackmans letter to investors. This means the larger the market cap of the company, the larger the representation in the index. In other words, as the stock price rises, its weighting ...
by ogd
Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads referenced
Replies: 80
Views: 6742

Re: Hedge Funds blame Index funds: Bogleheads reference

Just to put things in perspective, here are Bill Ackman's returns (after fees of course) from 2004-2015 http://cdn.octafinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Pershing-Square-Returns-393x300.png He returned 722.9% to investors while the S&P 500 returned 134.3% ... There's a reason we call hedge ...
by ogd
Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DoubleLine Capital LP’s Jeffrey Gundlach
Replies: 9
Views: 911

Re: DoubleLine Capital LP’s Jeffrey Gundlach

I know we have not agreed on everything in the past ogd but you are giving me quote credit for a matjen post. I never said that... regardless. I recently decided to give his Total Return Fund a try in my IRA for a variety of reasons. Unless my reading of his fund and materials is wrong he is predom...
by ogd
Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is VTIAX performing? [Vanguard Total International Stock]
Replies: 50
Views: 6835

Re: How is VTIAX performing?

Thanks. Understood. But it seems like VG intentionally makes it look like you've taken a hit on your investment. As far as the IRS is concerned, you have. This is important. I guess if nothing else , you might be inclined to think that's fair value. Or was it over valued in 2011? The economies conc...
by ogd
Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking growth - In Shares, not Dollars
Replies: 6
Views: 499

Re: Tracking growth - In Shares, not Dollars

Does anyone track retirement shares in addition to $s? My thought it that if people were fixated on buying more shares, the $ means nothing. Please share any example because I'd definitely apply to my file. It seems unsound, because some funds distribute a lot of the gains (either as dividends or c...
by ogd
Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6449

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

However, the general course of conventional advice actually seems to be to set a required level of expected-but-not-guaranteed return and hold that constant. If bonds yield less, then you go to riskier bonds, for example. And it's generally assumed that constant-expected-return, variable-risk is ho...
by ogd
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mike, the World's Most Patient Market Timer
Replies: 22
Views: 3130

Re: Mike, the World's Most Patient Market Timer

Is there a percentage drop that Mike can use as a trigger which will enable him to reliably outperform Jack? No. The evidence is simple and powerful: there are in the market mutual funds that are dedicated to market timing: "tactical asset allocation" funds. They switch between a safe ass...
by ogd
Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 272
Views: 16270

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

Again, I prefer to let the market decide my weightings. I don't slice and dice. I don't favor dividend stocks. I don't favor growth stocks. The intellectual exercise is interesting, and always is argued with near-religious fervor by the anti-dividend crowd. I'm not sure why. Truly. I don't know why...
by ogd
Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 272
Views: 16270

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

As I said, the best that you can say is that buybacks can postpone a taxable event . It might turn out to be good or might turn out to be a mistake. Sometime stocks and markets go down. In evaluating future capital gains the risks should be accounted for by discounting their assumed value. TJSI: fa...
by ogd
Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 272
Views: 16270

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

If I had sold shares when I took the 0.075 per share dividend in cash in Dec.2002,the share price was 52.02 If I had sold shares when I took the 0.2375 per share dividend in cash in Dec 2008,the share price was 56.06. If I had sold shares when I took the 0.48 per share dividend in cash in Dec 2014,...
by ogd
Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 272
Views: 16270

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

Because, to put it bluntly, corporate officers are often scoundrels and theives. They lie. They cheat. They steal. They invest in projects more on the basis of turf, prestige, and politics than cash flow. They run around in Learjets and eat fois gras on your nickel. Shareholders intuitively know th...
by ogd
Sun Jan 17, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Contrafund Pool Vs VIIIX
Replies: 36
Views: 3626

Re: Fidelity Contrafund Pool Vs VIIIX

Currently, most of my large cap funds are in VIIIX at .02 ER http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/VIIIX/quote.html. I totally get the benefits of keeping ER's low, but I was looking at long term past performance of these two funds: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mutual-fund/compare?Tickers=VIIIX...
by ogd
Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSMX vs. VTSAX
Replies: 28
Views: 1693

Re: VTSMX vs. VTSAX

Since I will only have $11,000 - the amount taxed this year, would it be okay to put that in VTSAX? Or is that considered dangerous since I will only have money in one fund this year? As mentioned, the higher ER funds will only cost you $12 more/year. For that pittance, I'd say put it in your targe...
by ogd
Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawing Dividends
Replies: 3
Views: 529

Re: Withdrawing Dividends

Like House Blend says, if you're tax advantaged there is no difference between:

1) Not reinvesting dividends and buying what's down.
2) Reinvesting but then rebalancing.

So do what's easiest.
by ogd
Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest even if it's probably not the bottom
Replies: 18
Views: 3351

Re: Invest even if it's probably not the bottom

The picture is incomplete without the penalties for being wrong either way. How much did it cost you to wait for the bottom when it was the bottom? For some, it was an ungodly amount of money ("missed the bull market entirely, what to do now?") In the aggregate, I'd think the expectation i...
by ogd
Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSMX vs. VTSAX
Replies: 28
Views: 1693

Re: VTSMX vs. VTSAX

Since I will only have $11,000 - the amount taxed this year, would it be okay to put that in VTSAX? Or is that considered dangerous since I will only have money in one fund this year? As mentioned, the higher ER funds will only cost you $12 more/year. For that pittance, I'd say put it in your targe...

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