Search found 4637 matches

by ogd
Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1039

Re: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds

I don't have enough in this fund to qualify for the Admiral funds, or I would likely just go that route. Third, with regard to expense ratios, actually do the math. You didn't say whether you are using Investor or Admiral shares of Windsor, but whichever it is, do the actual math, calculate the num...
by ogd
Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FBIOX is killing me. [Fidelity Select Biotechnology]
Replies: 48
Views: 2101

Re: FBIOX is killing me.

I probably should have read here first and went for the three fund portfolio... but I didn't. I'm OK with more risk, but I'm not sure that FBIOX is going to get back to its previous levels any time soon. Sell it, claim the tax deduction, get the three fund portfolio and NEVER chase performance agai...
by ogd
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dividend index funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1591

Re: dividend index funds

Julyguy754 wrote:Any added suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Julyguy754 -- it sounds like you're ready for a detailed portfolio review. Please post a new thread in the help forum using this standardized format: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212
by ogd
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are tax-exempt money market yields so high?
Replies: 11
Views: 1377

Re: Why are tax-exempt money market yields so high?

Take a look at this Bloomberg article. The title is "Muni Money Market Funds Decimated by Rules Intended to Save Them". http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-03/muni-money-market-funds-decimated-by-rules-intended-to-save-them WOW :shock: :confused :? I think this thread should be...
by ogd
Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1 million to add to vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 4921

Re: 1 million to add to vanguard

What I was trying to say is that the person having to manage billions of dollars has to have a much different and typically much more complicated strategy regarding how to properly allocate all that money, especially if the managers are moving the money around. The average investor now has access t...
by ogd
Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dividend index funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1591

Re: dividend index funds

Thanks for your help. My brother and I both are in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund. I guess we were looking at also adding something like Vanguard: Div Growth, High Yield Index, Dividend Appreciation or Equity Income. From what your saying you would just invest more in the Total Stock Ma...
by ogd
Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1 million to add to vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 4921

Re: 1 million to add to vanguard

In terms of comparing the average investor to the person managing billions of dollars and trying to market-time on a day-to-day basis--it seems like OP is talking more about waiting on taking advantage of a dip or two in the next few months--not trying to time the market on a day-to-day basis. I've...
by ogd
Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1 million to add to vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 4921

Re: 1 million to add to vanguard

I understand what you are saying: I am not a trader-- here and there i have a lump sum to invest I know you think that your situation is different and it's just this one time that you're timing, but the point is that if your goal of doing something better than investing in your target allocation ri...
by ogd
Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1 million to add to vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 4921

Re: 1 million to add to vanguard

ok read the thread and i see everyone is saying lump sum it in so it doesnt matter how many times S&P is trading 18x is very high shouldnt that count in some way So no matter what market conditions are at the moment just lump it in ok Erik: please understand that market timing is extremely hard...
by ogd
Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dividend index funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1591

Re: dividend index funds

My brother and I are looking at investing in a Vanguard Dividend Index fundl for retirement planning. Just wondering if this is a good way to go vs investing in a dividend company. It's MUCH better than investing in a single company, for sure. When you are concentrating your investments, you are ta...
by ogd
Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?
Replies: 44
Views: 4212

Re: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?

I wish I had know this years ago when I started accumulating in my taxable account. I think the thing to do was to collect the cash dividend that re-invest it once or twice a year in round numbers (with any new money) to limit the number of lots created. But - now that mutual fund companies are req...
by ogd
Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?
Replies: 44
Views: 4212

Re: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?

Is VTSAX pretty much just distributing a portion of the total amount of money invested in it every quarter, which explains its fluctuating dividend yield? No, it distributes the dividends that companies pay, as if you'd owned those companies directly. These fluctuate seasonally and over longer peri...
by ogd
Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard Endowment Losses Tied to Value Stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 4787

Re: Harvard Endowment Losses Tied to Value Stocks

Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate, 6/30/2005 to 6/30/2015, $10,000 to $17,928.42 = 6.01%. So that does drag things down to the worse than the average endowment fund. Worth remembering that LSMG suffered in the period from its allocation to the market-timing fund Asset Allocation. So in a sense, it was...
by ogd
Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at preferreds,
Replies: 10
Views: 828

Re: A look at preferreds,

Thanks for the great article, Larry. A minor correction: Concentration risk For the regulatory reasons mentioned previously, was probably moved at some point during editing to appear before said regulatory reasons. I actually found this section the most compelling, perhaps it should have been higher...
by ogd
Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?
Replies: 25
Views: 2036

Re: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?

It is no accident that the worst yearly return of Total Bonds, ever, was -2.8%, in a year described as a "bond massacre". Numbers like -50% simply don't belong in a bond discussion. This is exactly what I'd like to see less of. The ten-year just dropped 10% a few years ago and another 10%...
by ogd
Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?
Replies: 25
Views: 2036

Re: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?

As much as I like this forum, I never liked the ever present view that bonds somehow are less risky than stocks in the event of a market dislocation. Consider that a "low cost, high quality" intermediate term bond fund yields about 2% while 20 some odd years ago the same fund would have y...
by ogd
Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund vs. Individual Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1635

Re: Bond Fund vs. Individual Bonds

Maybe close enough, but I see at least two differences: 1) duration isn't everything--to the extent that it's an average, two bond portfolios of similar duration can behave very differently with regard to rate changes, as they may target different points on the yield curve; and it is possible that ...
by ogd
Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1039

Re: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds

Your questions should be answered in our wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/ETFs_vs_mutual_funds
by ogd
Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "No Bonds" portfolio
Replies: 100
Views: 17748

Re: The "No Bonds" portfolio

What scares me about even short term bond funds is this thought: Bonds are in a 35 year (or 5,000 year) bull market. At some point - probably in my lifetime, maybe soon - that will end. Possibly to be replaced by a bond bear that may well outlive me - with a steady stream of bond fund losses right ...
by ogd
Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Presidential Election Insurance, Use T-Bills?
Replies: 65
Views: 3772

Re: Presidential Election Insurance, Use T-Bills?

I thought about that. But I belive the price differential if any is going to be in my favor. Either the price is going to go down because the Fed raises rates and/or the price is going to go down along with the stock market. On this premise you'd probably want to sell your stocks rather than worryi...
by ogd
Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal Bonds instead of CD's?
Replies: 23
Views: 2046

Re: Municipal Bonds instead of CD's?

Doesn't the fund's NAV reflect a bit higher value, at least for awhile, than the full impact predicted by duration math? The fund's NAV reflects exactly the price impact of the yield increases along its curve, plugged into the yield / price formula. There is no room for the market to absorb this in...
by ogd
Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal Bonds instead of CD's?
Replies: 23
Views: 2046

Re: Municipal Bonds instead of CD's?

I assume the theoretical tie between interest change and its affect on a bond or bond funds value ignores some possible effects of the market. e.g. a 1/2% rise in say the 10 year Treasury bond might cause a flood of purchases from foreign countries with low or negative rates. That might bid up the ...
by ogd
Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Presidential Election Insurance, Use T-Bills?
Replies: 65
Views: 3772

Re: Presidential Election Insurance, Use T-Bills?

I am considering moving a portion of our short term corporate bond funds into 13 week T-bills so as to have dollars readily available if a market crisis occurs. The cost is only the difference in return between the two for 90 days - not much. Any thoughts? (Other than I am paranoid.) I would guess ...
by ogd
Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?
Replies: 45
Views: 4237

Re: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?

If money is coming out of stocks and not going into bonds, where is it going? The mental model that market assets move up and down in price due to money moving elsewhere is not correct, in spite of what market commentators like to say. After all, an asset isn't just "sold", it's at the sa...
by ogd
Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for safe ETFs for 200K cash sitting in brokerage accounts.
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Looking for safe ETFs for 200K cash sitting in brokerage accounts.

I have right now 200K just sitting in two separate brokerage accounts. I'm in my mid 30's and don't need the money. I decided that I don't trust the stock market right now and feel it is in bubble territory and is due a correction. I know many have thought this for years and it keeps going up. Howe...
by ogd
Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund
Replies: 51
Views: 4672

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund

What hasn't been touched on is that if one is 30/70 equities/bonds, a slight increase in the total return of the bonds is much more significant and worthwhile than if the bond segment was lower. Moreover, an increased risk in equities can have disastrous results that don't equate to losses from inc...
by ogd
Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reflections on 25 years in a bond fund
Replies: 13
Views: 2296

Re: Reflections on 25 years in a bond fund

My quandary is more along the lines of 'Suze Orman may have been right' about buying individual bonds instead of bond funds. If I had purchased 30 year Treasury bonds yielding 8 - 9% 25 years ago I would still be receiving that return . I did start buying 30 year Treasury bonds from Treasury Direct...
by ogd
Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help explain: bond prices and interest rate link
Replies: 24
Views: 1813

Re: Help explain: bond prices and interest rate link

What I don't understand is why people have bonds in their portfolios since interest rates have been so low and there is nowhere to go but up which means that bond prices will fall. Bond yields (which may be distinct from the interest rates you're thinking of, but they're what matters for this discu...
by ogd
Sat Aug 20, 2016 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX vx VSMPX [Vanguard Total Stock Market Admiral vs. Institutional+]
Replies: 6
Views: 552

Re: VTSAX vx VSMPX [Vanguard Total Stock Market Admiral vs. Institutional+]

Both low on fees but VSMPX sounds better over long run. However, ultimately my dividend yield/reinvestment potential is cut in half for VSMPX due to price compared to VTSAX (54.59 vx. 102.40). Is that correct assumption? If so how do I even calculate the cost (fees, dividend reinvestment and opport...
by ogd
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me choose a non-municipal bond fund for my taxable account
Replies: 26
Views: 1384

Re: Please help me choose a non-municipal bond fund for my taxable account

1. Does this seem reasonable or am I being paranoid? Yes. And you are not being any more paranoid than myself and others. 2. Would Vanguard's total bond index fund (VBTLX) be acceptable in my taxable account for this purpose given that it is at least 60% treasuries? Or should I hold a strictly trea...
by ogd
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me choose a non-municipal bond fund for my taxable account
Replies: 26
Views: 1384

Re: Please help me choose a non-municipal bond fund for my taxable account

You only really need to worry about a share price drop in a muni fund if you have to sell a bunch of shares for some reason. If you are just collecting the dividends, don't worry, the price will move back up shortly. This is just plain wrong. With a sustained increase in interest rates, bond prices...
by ogd
Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it un-bogle like to time your initial purchase of index funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1556

Re: Is it un-bogle like to time your initial purchase of index funds?

From my understanding, one of the central themes in the Boglehead philosophy is to avoid trying to predict the market by investing passively, and to hold onto assets through the markets ups and downs. With this in mind, is it anti-Bogle to time my INITIAL purchasing of the funds that I plan to hold...
by ogd
Tue Aug 09, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VOB vs VWOB vs VXUS [Emerging markets bond vs. total international]
Replies: 12
Views: 690

Re: VOB vs VWOB vs VXUS [Emerging markets bond vs. total international]

It seems to me that Vanguard's emerging markets government bond ETF has reliable yields similar to their emerging markets stock ETF at significantly lesser risk. Is that right? I prefer them both to total international stock ETF, because I think European political instability is acute and will be f...
by ogd
Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors love "lottery tickets" new paper supporting that theory
Replies: 33
Views: 3709

Re: Investors love "lottery tickets" new paper supporting that theory

Growth stocks are a bad investment and small value a good investment only for those who are either indifferent to skewness or whose preference for positive skewness is less than average. If investors want lottery distributions, they could just get them in Vegas, couldn't they? Take a small portion ...
by ogd
Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Muni Bonds right for me?
Replies: 10
Views: 958

Re: Are Muni Bonds right for me?

Right now, I am leaning towards opening positions in the Short, Intermediate, and Long- putting equal amounts into each. Depending upon appreciation, I may sell some or all of these when I go to pull my down payment. There's little need to hold all three. The overall duration will be intermediate, ...
by ogd
Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ENX. Eaton Vance ny state muni fund
Replies: 3
Views: 281

Re: ENX. Eaton Vance ny state muni fund

That sounds like a good strategy to me. At what point does this turn risky? Yields go up across the curve. Then the fund has to pay much more for its leverage, while making the same from its positions (or taking a big hit if it exits them). You asked for the catch, this is a big one. The second cat...
by ogd
Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman on Muni's
Replies: 29
Views: 2173

Re: Edelman on Muni's

I happened to catch Ric Edelman's radio show this past weekend. On it, he claimed that people should avoid muni bonds because if the federal income-tax exemption is rescinded, the bonds could lose 30%-40% of their value - since this is the range of applicable tax rates. This seems to me to be extre...
by ogd
Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compound interest and index fund
Replies: 2
Views: 531

Re: Compound interest and index fund

So, how does index fund growth work? Or in another word, if I buy and hold a total stock market index stock forever, how does the average 8% market return play out in relationship with compounding? I guess I'm confused because all the literature I read is always talking about compounding interest o...
by ogd
Sat Jul 16, 2016 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 44
Views: 5199

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

Convexity means that the formula overestimates price changes when yields increase, but that it underestimates price changes when yields decrease. (The term comes from the fact that if you view plot bond prices as a function of yields, it will be a convex function - meaning that if you go in either ...
by ogd
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen to my bond interest payments?
Replies: 16
Views: 1078

Re: What will happen to my bond interest payments?

All above true. For a simple answer, your payments will stay the same, but the marketplace will say you are getting a higher yield because they calculate the yield based on the new NAV. Same payments divided by lower NAV equals higher yield. When it comes to yield to maturity, i.e. how much your bo...
by ogd
Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term bond performance question
Replies: 9
Views: 998

Re: Long term bond performance question

I still don't understand the bolded bit about the 1% getting paid out up front, but I can't thank you enough for the first two paragraphs. I feel like I'm finally beginning to understand bond fund prices versus bond yields versus gains and losses in the bond market. I wonder how many people are hug...
by ogd
Sun Jul 10, 2016 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Bonds in Taxable Account
Replies: 26
Views: 1938

Re: Investing in Bonds in Taxable Account

Ram: you should use current numbers instead of historical returns. This will probably help your case for bonds in taxable, but here are the other issues: Bonds of the same risk do not pay the same yield whether or not tax advantaged. If you found two funds of the same risk, you'd find something more...
by ogd
Sun Jul 10, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Bonds in Taxable Account
Replies: 26
Views: 1938

Re: Investing in Bonds in Taxable Account

http://whitecoatinvestor.com/asset-loca ... in-taxable. I recently read the above article by While Coat Investor that advises about keeping bonds in taxable account for high earners. I am in the 39% federal tax bracket. Currently all my bonds are in the tax deferred space and predominantly in Vangu...
by ogd
Sat Jul 09, 2016 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VDAIX) and Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VHDYX)
Replies: 20
Views: 1202

Re: Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VDAIX) and Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VHDYX)

Dividend Appreciation is not that much more costly, unless the investment is very large. That's not what I meant by expensive. I meant the underlying shares of growth companies (and even "dividend appreciation" stocks) trade at higher valuations than value/high-dividend. This is how the m...
by ogd
Sat Jul 09, 2016 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term bond funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2457

Re: Long term bond funds

The long-term fund uses $30 worth of the old long-term bonds (trading at a heavy discount to par) to buy $30 worth of new bonds at par. The new bonds yield 6% and thus $30 of them generate $1.80 a year in coupons. The remaining $30 of old bonds pays out $1.50 and so the total is $3.30 a year Yes, t...
by ogd
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term bond funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2457

Re: Long term bond funds

Is that what the bond funds are doing and is that considered active management? It's my understanding that for most long term bond funds the assets aren't held to maturity but are sold early, sometimes at a specified length or interval (for example 7 - 10 years). Are the bond funds deciding to buy ...
by ogd
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term bond funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2457

Re: Long term bond funds

A long-term bond fund may sell its bonds when they become intermediate term. This could be at a significantly lower price than what the fund paid for it. When it uses that money to buy new bonds at the higher rate, it won't be able to buy as many bonds and generate as much income. If you mean "...
by ogd
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt - Zero Coupon Bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1175

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt - Zero Coupon Bonds

Why would a bond fund of this type hold zero coupon bonds? How is the income from zero coupon bonds distributed? Because they bought them for well below face value, as can be seen in your excerpt. Getting $5M future for $3M present is a good amount of yield. Tax laws force them to distribute apprec...
by ogd
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VDAIX) and Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VHDYX)
Replies: 20
Views: 1202

Re: Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VDAIX) and Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VHDYX)

Dividend Appreciation tracks the Nasdaq US Dividend Achievers Select, while High Dividend Yield tracks the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index. It seems to me the first index would be better for gains at this time. The former is more growth-y ("good" companies), while the latter is more value-...
by ogd
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 44
Views: 5199

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

I is that really true? I think the log scale is important here, not the arithmetic scale. If rates halve, the price on current bonds double (all other things being equal). Rates can keep on halving for long time. Theoretically, it can go on for ever. Nope. The formula is price change = - duration t...

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