Search found 30137 matches

by nisiprius
Thu May 05, 2016 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your age in bonds minus ten? Not according to Vanguard
Replies: 29
Views: 2391

Re: Your age in bonds minus ten? Not according to Vanguard

Another example, all of the SWR research is based on annual reallocation to a fixed ratio. What SWR should you use if you're doing an "age in bonds" glide path? It turns out you to have use a much lower SWR, usually on the order of 1.5% less than a 60/40 portfolio with annual rebalancing:...
by nisiprius
Wed May 04, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your age in bonds minus ten? Not according to Vanguard
Replies: 29
Views: 2391

Re: Your age in bonds minus ten? Not according to Vanguard

I wonder if some of that is based on considering Social Security income as having bond-like characteristics? That's one key reason my asset allocation is less weighted towards bonds. I don't think anything about Social Security can explain why Vanguard goosed up the stock allocation in the target r...
by nisiprius
Wed May 04, 2016 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your age in bonds minus ten? Not according to Vanguard
Replies: 29
Views: 2391

Re: Your age in bonds minus ten? Not according to Vanguard

I'm curious as to what the general consensus here is in terms of stock/bond asset allocation based on age/expected age at retirement. My sense is that Bogleheads are fairly conservative: many suggest "your age in bonds" or, less conservatively, "your age in bonds minus 10." What...
by nisiprius
Wed May 04, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Longer Re-Balancing Periods?
Replies: 11
Views: 653

Re: Longer Re-Balancing Periods?

Yes, it's been looked at but I haven't paid much attention myself. William J. Bernstein wrote: Is there any reason to believe that, on average, rebalancing will help more than it hurts? Not if we believe that market movements are random. After all, we rebalance with the hope that an asset with past ...
by nisiprius
Wed May 04, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "MetLife to Pay $25 Million"
Replies: 13
Views: 1955

Re: "MetLife to Pay $25 Million"

I was able to read the story by Googling on the entire phrase (copy this and paste it into the search bar)
MetLife to Pay $25 Million Finra Penalty Over Variable Annuities
and clicking on the top search result.
by nisiprius
Wed May 04, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity or Vanguard
Replies: 72
Views: 3669

Re: Fidelity or Vanguard

I finally consolidated everything down to Vanguard, but I had accounts for many years from both places and I regard both as first rate and straight shooters. If you go with Fidelity, I would scope out a plan for how to do Boglehead-style investing at Fidelity--see http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Fide...
by nisiprius
Wed May 04, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 74
Views: 2835

Re: How many funds in your portfolio?

Not to go off topic, but I have a quick question to the folks who have more than 8 funds. Are you married? If so does your significant other show interest? If not, do you worry about them not being able to handle this type of portfolio in the event you predecease them? My wife shows very little int...
by nisiprius
Wed May 04, 2016 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does DFA not offer a market neutral fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 812

Re: Why does DFA not offer a market neutral fund?

A very interesting discovery. Everything they say makes total sense... and if I didn't see the 2006 date, I'd suspect this of being a veiled criticism of QSPIX! The shoe certainly fits. This sentence is particularly interesting because it hadn't occurred to me to think of it this way. This seems lik...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about simulators' failure rate
Replies: 6
Views: 601

Re: A question about simulators' failure rate

I have a question about the class of simulators that project your likelihood of running out of money in retirement, eg, Portfolio Visualizer. The question involves how they typically develop the running our of money stats, or more specifically, how they develop the "failure rate." So let'...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advertised High Rate 4.65%* CD
Replies: 6
Views: 1406

Re: Advertised High Rate 4.65%* CD

Usually, the big catch in these deals is simply that, unlike a "real" CD, in which you can invest as much money as you like, there is usually a rather low cap on how much you can invest, perhaps $10,000. In this case, the difference between this CD and a savings account is about 4%, but on...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bond funds have a tendency to revert to par value?
Replies: 12
Views: 884

Re: Do bond funds have a tendency to revert to par value?

I would say yes, provided the bonds are investment-grade (so the fund is not constantly losing principal due to defaults or to market declines in anticipation of defaults). This chart is part joking, but more serious than joking. This is a price chart (not my customary growth chart) and the green li...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lincoln Financial Annuities
Replies: 12
Views: 755

Re: Lincoln Financial Annuities

Have you ever then signed up for the "too good to be true" offer?... Now that I think about it, I never have on financial products. I did get a bank rep to write on the back of her business card "You have the right to break this CD and make an early withdrawal at any time," but ...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 58
Views: 4667

Re: Sideways Market

I like "sideways." If the market has gotten ahead of itself and needs to slow down, better it should take a breather and wait for reality to catch up with it than that it should go back and start over.
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lincoln Financial Annuities
Replies: 12
Views: 755

Re: Lincoln Financial Annuities

P.S. I actually tried to look the thing up but gave up. Which of these things is the actual product you were offered? Can you give us a link to the actual product details (including the prospectus?) Lincoln Financial Group Variable Annuities http://s32.postimg.org/p8wesg38l/Captura_de_pantalla_2016_...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lincoln Financial Annuities
Replies: 12
Views: 755

Re: Lincoln Financial Annuities

...They guarantee 5% growth on market down years... Since this seems impossible given current interest rates, very likely the guarantee is written in a very confusing way and doesn't mean what you think it means. I have something I actually do once in a while, when presented with a very attractive ...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meaning of the label Market Timing?
Replies: 33
Views: 1477

Re: Meaning of the label Market Timing?

To me, the proper definition of "market timing" is "the actual practices of people who call themselves 'market timers.'" When I've looked at what these people do, this is what I think I've seen, though I could be generalizing incorrectly. I don't know how to do it objectively. 1)...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Schwab
Replies: 7
Views: 1131

Re: Swabb

Not to boost Schwab, but one difference between Schwab and Vanguard is that Schwab has physical storefront offices in many larger cities. I don't know if that's a good thing. I suspect is it not a good thing. Despite their storefronts, Schwab also has a very good website. Around the late 1990s Schwa...
by nisiprius
Tue May 03, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Schwab
Replies: 7
Views: 1131

Re: Swabb

She was not too excited when I said that I was going to put my other 100,000 into Vanguard funds... One possible reason is that I think Schwab will charge you (you'd need to ask them to get correct current details) $39.95 to buy or sell a Vanguard mutual fund, and $8.95 to buy or sell a Vanguard ET...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What the new FICO score means for you.......
Replies: 3
Views: 1148

Re: What the new FICO score means for you.......

The widely held idea that you have "a" FICO score is incorrect... IIRC there are about thirty of them, scoring in different ways for different parts of the credit-score market. So the new score may make a difference to those lenders who decide to use it. It's not at all clear that you, the...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 25
Views: 1850

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Try this. Enter these values into the Get A Recommendation tool and see what it recommends. Try it. I think you will be amused. (The key here is that I am telling it to invest only $30,000). Length of time before withdrawals: >15 years. Period of withdrawals: >15 years. Prefer little or no fluctuati...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "The B2C Robo-Advisor Movement Is Dying, But Its #FinTech Legacy Will Live On!" by by Michael Kitces
Replies: 4
Views: 608

Re: "The B2C Robo-Advisor Movement Is Dying, But Its #FinTech Legacy Will Live On!" by by Michael Kitces

The question I have, and have had since the beginning... what happens to all the clients who signed on to the idea of handing over their retirement savings program to a robo-advisory service, and letting it take them through to retirement on autopilot? What happens to all their accounts when the ser...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "The B2C Robo-Advisor Movement Is Dying, But Its #FinTech Legacy Will Live On!" by by Michael Kitces
Replies: 4
Views: 608

Re: "The B2C Robo-Advisor Movement Is Dying, But Its #FinTech Legacy Will Live On!" by by Michael Kitces

I liked the article (in spite of the acronym in the headline, which I consider poor form; I had to google B2C : business to customer). I learned a lot. I had been wondering how they were making a profit and thougth their business model was to get bought by Fidelity, Google or Vanguard. Some more ve...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a web site that calculates correlations between different funds, etfs, and or indexes?
Replies: 16
Views: 995

Re: Is there a web site that calculates correlations between different funds, etfs, and or indexes?

This is my personal opinionated opinion. The only "low correlation" that's worth paying attention to is the low correlation between stocks and (investment-grade) bonds. It's genuinely low --like 0.09 low and -0.02 low, not like 0.68 "low." Although there have been significant var...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett goes after fees pushes index funds (again)
Replies: 33
Views: 3884

Re: Buffett goes after fees pushes index funds (again)

It drives me bananas that Buffett is forever referencing the S&P 500 and the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund specifically and never bothers to explain, even briefly, whether he a) thinks an S&P 500 index fund is actually superior to a total market index fund, b) doesn't think the difference ...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Mkt. Fund or its Components?
Replies: 12
Views: 545

Re: Total Mkt. Fund or its Components?

I'm not a tilter, so take this as a skeptic's view. Some things to think about, NOT recommendations or advice. 1) Your proposed portfolio is somewhat reminiscent of Bill Schultheis' "Coffeehouse Portfolio," except that he doesn't sort out midcaps, and he adds REITS and international. So, t...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Small Cap Index Fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 825

Re: Which Small Cap Index Fund?

P.S. The chart... how different is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, from Vanguard 500 Stock Index Fund, VFINX? Here's the growth chart back to inception of Total Stock. This is how much difference there's been. And based on the fact that 80% of Total Stock is actually invested in the S...
by nisiprius
Mon May 02, 2016 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Small Cap Index Fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 825

Re: Which Small Cap Index Fund?

...Essentially what i am attempting to do is replicate a total market fund inside my 401K since there isn't one available. I'm looking at the following 70% S&P 500 20% Mid-Cap 10% Small Cap 1) My knee-jerk response, without looking at the three funds in detail or knowing much about them, would ...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500 vs. Total Stock Market Index
Replies: 11
Views: 1086

Re: 500 vs. Total Stock Market Index

The S&P 500 index was created in 1957. Before about 1980, nobody paid much attention to small-caps. The S&P 500 was intended to be a measure of the stock market as a whole. It was, and is , a good measure of the stock market as a whole. Total stock market indexes, such as the one tracked by ...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wykoff: Four important phases of market trends
Replies: 23
Views: 1247

Re: Wykoff: Four important phases of market trends

...Some times more seasoned investors have important insights to offer amateur, part-time forum investors. Are you an investment expert and your full time job is to study the markets? ... Nope, which is why I took the time to look at Wykoff's article to see what it had to say and whether there was ...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wykoff: Four important phases of market trends
Replies: 23
Views: 1247

Re: Wykoff: Four important phases of market trends

From the article: “…one thing that everyone can probably agree on is that markets are cyclical and that securities do have recurring chart patterns. Nope. Not everyone can agree on that. Securities do not "have" recurring chart patterns. People perceive recurring chart patterns. The probl...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?
Replies: 19
Views: 1736

Re: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?

Just to be clear, as I'm sure you know, Park, Arnott is not a disinterested party here. He is the principal of a firm that licenses RAFI indexes to fund companies, and he is also the portfolio manager of some PIMCO mutual funds that track RAFI indexes. Of course he says that his way is better, what ...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?
Replies: 19
Views: 1736

Re: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?

...On p. 156, the authors state that from 1979 to 2007... What justification do they give for picking that particular range of years? Since you have the book, look for it and tell us what you find. There could be some simple explanation, but let's know what it is. I am surprised at how often writer...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: higher % stocks -> higher % of stocks international
Replies: 14
Views: 1512

Re: Jonathan Clements: higher % stocks -> higher % of stocks international

Thus, if I understand correctly, Clements might be saying that he would allocate the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds a little differently than Vanguard has. Thus, for example, Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth is 80/20, and 40% of that 80 is international, thus 48% U.S. stocks, 32% international stocks. Van...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planetarium software that only shows BRIGHTER nebulas?
Replies: 4
Views: 339

Planetarium software that only shows BRIGHTER nebulas?

I have a couple and none are quite right. I am looking for software for either my Kindle Fire HD (modified Android, must buy from Amazon's app store) or my Samsung Galaxy Stardust (straight Android, Google Play store). Here are my desiderata: 1) If you ask it to show "deep sky" object (neb...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: higher % stocks -> higher % of stocks international
Replies: 14
Views: 1512

Re: Jonathan Clements: higher % stocks -> higher % of stocks international

Thus, if I understand correctly, Clements might be saying that he would allocate the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds a little differently than Vanguard has. Thus, for example, Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth is 80/20, and 40% of that 80 is international, thus 48% U.S. stocks, 32% international stocks. Vang...
by nisiprius
Sun May 01, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: higher % stocks -> higher % of stocks international
Replies: 14
Views: 1512

Jonathan Clements: higher % stocks -> higher % of stocks international

I'm getting emails entitled "Jonathan Clements Money Guide," not sure why but I probably did request them... and this month he said Jonathan Clements wrote something in his May 2016 newsletter (thanks for the link, iceport) which I'm posting about, not because I necessarily agree or d...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shareholders want their (voting) rights back
Replies: 16
Views: 1345

Re: Shareholders want their (voting) rights back

Looks like Facebook's Zuckerberg is going this route, dual share classes to maintain control while he sells his shares. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/28/technology/facebook-q1-earnings.html?_r=0 The new C shares effectively allow Mr. Zuckerberg to maintain 60 percent of voting power while still gi...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions
Replies: 32
Views: 1859

Re: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions

Nevertheless, can you or anybody else seriously believe that Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard don't compete with each other--vigorously--on their index funds? Or that it is competition that has driven down the expense ratios of index funds to half of what they were in the year 2000? The anti-trust co...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions
Replies: 32
Views: 1859

Re: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions

There is an argument that index funds (or at least behemoth index fund managers like Vanguard and Blackrock) should be illegal under anti-trust law. In a free-market economy, we want companies to aggressively compete against each other. The argument is that when everybody owns everyone, there is no...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuitizing a Tax Sheltered Annuity
Replies: 5
Views: 568

Re: Annuitizing a Tax Sheltered Annuity

...The only downside I see with buying the life annuity is the possibility that the company might fail... There is a degree of protection. It is a very unsatisfactory situation in that the protection is somewhat loosey-goosey--it is not "insurance;" the insurance companies, self-servingly...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions
Replies: 32
Views: 1859

Re: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions

Here's where the distortion comes in: Now break it down into its 500 corporate components. Some are presumably winners and some not so much. But every time an investor plows more money into an S&P 500 index fund, winners and losers are purchased as if their merits are interchangeable. No, they a...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions
Replies: 32
Views: 1859

Re: Efficient frontier? "Indexing" and valuation distortions

The usual nonsense, the usual distortions, a standard talking point against indexing that's been used for perhaps fifteen years? now. There's a faint point that can be made specifically against the popularity of S&P 500 indexing, which might elevate the prices of the stocks in that index. A post...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2026

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

...When you're talking about small cap stocks (particularly ones that were trading over-the-counter), data prior to the 1970s becomes problematic... 1971 being the founding of NASDAQ? Financial databases didn't add smallcap/OTC stocks until the 70s at the earliest. When they were added, they would ...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 17
Views: 2440

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

That's probably accurate. To some extent that's the Fed's job, to smooth out the boom and bust cycle. The only problem is they create far more boom and bust cycles than they smooth out. According to this list , created, from 1785 to 1914 I count 31 recessions and from 1915 to the present I count 18...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 30, 2016 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in May and Walking Away?
Replies: 83
Views: 6759

Re: Selling in May and Walking Away?

I know this "old saw" of a topic has come up in BH forums many times, and I know that it goes against the entire BH philosophy, and I know that data has shown it to be a strategy that doesn't work long-term, and I know that a long-term investing horizon makes short-term moves a blip on th...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Vanguard Target fund deconstructed - pros/cons?
Replies: 33
Views: 2601

Re: A Vanguard Target fund deconstructed - pros/cons?

A couple of observations: 1) This is 40% International. Isn't that awfully high? That is to say, within the stock allocation, 40% of the stocks are international. Yes, I personally think that's high, and would not personally want that much--but it's not outside the bounds of the current mainstream ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 132
Views: 8846

Re: Is Vanguard phone support always this bad?

No, it's not always that bad. This will be a sort of wishy-washy post because it does describe an annoying Vanguard deficiency... but the customer service experience was fine. I'm signed up for the automatic RMD service, to make a single annual distribution each November. I needed to make a withdraw...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reviews on Paul Winkler (the Investor Coach)?
Replies: 11
Views: 2779

Re: Any reviews on Paul Winkler (the Investor Coach)?

EvanBarnard wrote:...While in our opinion, indexing can be an effective method in large US and large international, the increased implicit costs make them less attractive in many other categories...
Please explain this.
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2026

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

You give me too much credit, Taylor, but thanks. My knowledge is pretty superficial, though. The thing I do claim is that I do try to poke around and look for myself instead of looking at the data through somebody else's glasses. The Cowles' Commission book, Common-Stock Indexes, Second edition, is ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 1 website you'd recommend
Replies: 27
Views: 3779

Re: The 1 website you'd recommend

Morningstar. I really worry that people will suspect me of being connected with Morningstar (I'm not) because I rely so heavily on them and make so many postings based in its data. Ever since they started posting mutual fund data that goes back to inception instead of only going back ten years, they...

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