Search found 31963 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much SP500 might have dropped in 2000 crash if no 911?
Replies: 3
Views: 251

Re: How much SP500 might have dropped in 2000 crash if no 911?

Our ability to predict anything at all is poor, and our ability to predict low-probability, high-consequences events is worse. Asking to predict the severity of the next crash is a fool's errand. For what it's worth, doing my best to remember the time accurately, the final years of the great bull ma...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2151
Views: 584178

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

...I don't think this is unusual. Two crime writers I've read through the years are Ngaio Marsh and Sue Grafton. Marsh wrote from the mid-thirties up until her death in 1982. Her protagonist, Roderick Alleyn, never seemed to age. Likewise, Grafton started her Kinsey Millhone series in 1982 with &qu...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Check Your Beneficiaries!
Replies: 21
Views: 1565

Re: Check Your Beneficiaries!

For many people, the designation of beneficiaries might be more important than their will. It might control the disposition of larger, even much larger amounts of money.
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?
Replies: 19
Views: 2025

Re: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?

...Have experienced this. The fraud routes the funds to another compromised bank account as a first step then to another and another until they finally take the cash... How did this work if the other compromised bank account wasn't yours? Does your bank let you transfer to an external account that ...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?
Replies: 19
Views: 2025

Re: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?

How would they do this? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's not easy. Sure it is. Trying to capture passwords is what a lot of viruses and malware do. I didn't mean how do they get your password. That part is easy. I mean, once they have your password, how do they use it to transfer money from...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Filing For Extension?
Replies: 8
Views: 203

Re: Filing For Extension?

I'm not a tax expert, this is not tax advice. I'm looking at the two tax forms I think are involved: Form 4868, Application for Automatic Extension of Time To File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return and Form 1040, US Individual Income Tax Return On the form for filing for an extension, form 4686, you...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ethical dilemma involving birthdays and wine..
Replies: 31
Views: 2762

Re: Ethical dilemma involving birthdays and wine..

RubyTuesday, I do hope you'll tell us what you end up doing, and what happens.
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a good time to buy more Total Bond Fund?
Replies: 9
Views: 551

Re: Is this a good time to buy more Total Bond Fund?

I think it's as good a time as any and as bad a time as any. I don't see any sound basis for judging that it's better or worse than any other.
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 35
Views: 1708

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

I think there might be some other factors. (I don't favor dividends myself BTW). One is "tradition." I saw this in the behavior of an uncle who had a portfolio of utilities stocks. 1975 was a watershed year, the end of the fixed commission and the rise of the discount broker. It also rough...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?
Replies: 19
Views: 2025

Re: What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?

...What if someone gets your password and transfers money from your bank to theirs?... How would they do this? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's not easy. Now, I'm not going to get into the question of online bill-pay at a bank because I'm not sure how that works, but that's usually a separa...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ethical dilemma involving birthdays and wine..
Replies: 31
Views: 2762

Re: Ethical dilemma involving birthdays and wine..

"Thank you for thinking of us with this generous gift of wine! It is a truly pleasant surprise given it's been so long since we have done business. I will absolutely think of you first if I have any needs in the future." Yeah, that's better than mine. Besides the cordial thanks, it commun...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 54
Views: 3253

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

You can't "analyze" accurately whether your deposit is at risk. You just take that risk and shrug. Like everyone else, I wouldn't worry about the $1,000. Heck, I'm a lousy negotiator and I often "lose" $1,000 just paying too much for a plain ordinary car. Yes, it's at risk. But i...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ethical dilemma involving birthdays and wine..
Replies: 31
Views: 2762

Re: Ethical dilemma involving birthdays and wine..

In my personal opinion, your ethical requirement is to call their attention to the fact that they are doing it, because you strongly suspect it is accidental or mistaken. I don't think a "thank you" is enough, because--just as the gifts suggest they are trying to make you feel obligated to...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TRF vs. Three-fund Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 523

Re: TRF vs. Three-fund Portfolio

The pro is simplicity. And that's a big pro. The con is that the target-date funds might not match what you would choose yourself, and the mismatch might be enough to care about. Compared to the choices I've made for myself, the target-date fund has too high a stock allocation (serious), too high an...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Impending Fiduciary Armageddon Of (Most) Mutual Fund Share Classes" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 7
Views: 1021

Re: "The Impending Fiduciary Armageddon Of (Most) Mutual Fund Share Classes" by Michael Kitces

At the risk of pointing out the obvious: it doesn't affect no-load funds in general, and Vanguard funds in particular. I did get one insight. Before reading the article, I never could quite figure out why the investment industry was so up in arms about the fiduciary rule: But in a fiduciary world, t...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Wall Street Journal to close Google loophole entirely
Replies: 103
Views: 10032

Re: The Wall Street Journal to close Google loophole entirely

The google trick may not be working, but facebook referral still gets the job done. edit: to clarify, this can be done automatically with a bookmarklet, which I call WSJ in my bookmarks bar, consisting of the Javascript code: javascript:window.location="https://m.facebook.com/l.php?u="+en...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 55
Views: 3106

Re: Does anyone own gold?

A bit of the Gold ETF I think is fine as an asset that is uncorrelated with stocks or bonds, but the Permanent Portfolio is 25% in gold, and that's extreme IMHO. Yet, no one can complain about its historical performance Why not? Now before I get shouted down... the current backtested Permanent Port...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?
Replies: 93
Views: 5063

Re: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?

The Wizard wrote:...I never turn off the main breaker if I need to work on something, just the breaker or fuse for that branch circuit...
Why not?
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has growth beaten value recently?
Replies: 19
Views: 2087

Re: Why has growth beaten value recently?

Because the stories people confidently tell about how various asset classes supposedly behave, and the reasons why they behave that way, aren't very reliable.
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 55
Views: 3106

Re: Does anyone own gold?

...Referring to gold as "the definition of money" is certainly hyperbole,... We agree. And in my opinion, hyperbole is a good reason for being skeptical of what we'd hoped was disinterested financial advice. My underlining: ...but nothing else can come close to gold's track record as a hi...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 55
Views: 3106

Re: Does anyone own gold?

Well, lots of people advocate lots of different investments. Why do you think Evanson Asset's opinions are particularly sound? To tell the truth, I glance at the first few sentences of their description and I tune out: For six thousand years gold has been considered a unit of account, store of value...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients
Replies: 54
Views: 7338

Re: anguard opens special offices for $1 million clients

I was going to express very mild irritation, but since there is no new real estate involved--it's just at Malvern, Charlotte, and Phoenix where they have existing buildings--I guess I shouldn't get myself all worked up about it. (Is it really Phoenix, or is it Scottsdale?) The cost of three offices ...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are they trying to sell me here?
Replies: 27
Views: 2693

Re: What are they trying to sell me here?

99% sure: whole life insurance (or some variation thereof, probably variable universal life if they are emphasizing the "investment" nature), with a "long-term care benefit," and a fine-print disclaimer that says the benefit is not long-term care insurance but doesn't explain too...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I didn't report 1099-G?
Replies: 15
Views: 943

Re: I didn't report 1099-G?

Yes, and don't you feel like life is punishing you for being johnny-on-the-spot getting your taxes in! It's hard to know how long to wait, properly speaking you do need to keep track of your income well enough that you know whether you've received all your 1099s, including the 1099-G. 1) 1040X. I've...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you rank different diversifiers?
Replies: 5
Views: 426

Re: How do you rank different diversifiers?

If I wanted to get crazy-scientific about it, I would do it this way. I would pick some period of time. I would pick a baseline portfolio P, consisting of a small number of low-cost index funds, that is a serious candidate for a possible portfolio I might use myself. I would make a list of candidate...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1338

Re: "High conviction investing"

With regard to Invesco, one thing that came out of that last exercise. I've convinced myself that, as used by Invesco, "high-conviction" is a completely empty marketing term . They actually call out, by name, two of their :?: :?: :?: :!: :!: :!: index ETFs :!: :!: :!: :?: :?: :?: as "...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1338

Re: "High conviction investing"

I am not trying to make any scientific evaluation or produce any crushing proof, just trying a little personal experiment. I'm going to test this hypothesis (straw man if you like): "High conviction" investing is so much better than indexing, that it's a slam dunk that any fool (me) who ch...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1338

Re: "High conviction investing"

If you're going to bet on active management, concentration seems to be key. No sense in paying active management fees to get a closet index fund. The idea is to concentrate the portfolio in your best ideas- i.e. the ones you have a high conviction about. Along the same lines, it doesn't make sense ...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1338

Re: "High conviction investing"

...Of course, not all concentrated funds are subject to those extreme wild swings -- I assume some cap individual names in the 5-7% range... Mutual funds have to follow some rules to be classified "diversified." Most funds do. If they don't, they have to make an explicit statement that th...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic juxtaposition: What Asset Allocation is "Best"?
Replies: 7
Views: 627

Re: Classic juxtaposition: What Asset Allocation is "Best"?

The same point can illustrated by the model glide slopes Morningstar uses to benchmark target-date funds. The main point here is the difference between the "aggressive" and "conservative" allocations (red and purple lines in the chart I made). Morningstar has their own chart supe...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 117
Views: 17737

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

The funeral home website has a button near the bottom, "Post a Condolence," that will allow you to leave a message for the family: http://www.bucktroutfuneralhome.net/obituary/lee-evans-marshall/ Nisiprius, Thank you for posting your condolences on the funeral home website, with nice comm...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 117
Views: 17737

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

The funeral home website has a button near the bottom, "Post a Condolence," that will allow you to leave a message for the family: http://www.bucktroutfuneralhome.net/obituary/lee-evans-marshall/ (It also has a "donate" button offering the opportunity to make a donation in his me...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 104
Views: 6847

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

Alright. The market is going to crash. Valuations are through the roof and unreasonable. That's a fact. It's the dot-com bubble all over again. The question is... where in the dot-com (part 2) bubble are we? The odd thing to me is that, even if I did think the market were about to crash fairly soon...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1338

Re: "High conviction investing"

I believe "high conviction" means "a willingness to place large concentrated bets in a few stocks you really believe in, rather than playing it safe by spreading it around into lots of stocks that seem safe and sorta OK." In a mutual fund company--to the extent that it is anythin...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory question about value/size tilts
Replies: 7
Views: 394

Re: Theory question about value/size tilts

OK, I couldn't stand the suspense. I used PortfolioVisualizer, using VFINX for "large-cap blend" because VLACX has only been available since 2004, and, I am just saying what I found... to my eye... glancing at the growth charts and the various numbers... using: VIVAX for large-cap value VF...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory question about value/size tilts
Replies: 7
Views: 394

Re: Theory question about value/size tilts

...Also note as always that in real funds as opposed to raw data, small growth is not as bad historically because index inclusion screens (and active manager picks) weed out a lot of the worst stuff on average... That's very interesting, lack_ey. I've certainly been bemused by the lack of any drama...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory question about value/size tilts
Replies: 7
Views: 394

Re: Theory question about value/size tilts

There's a theory that the small and value factors are not linearly additive or superimposable, and that small and value synergize. Under that theory, the first and third would be superior in some way because they have the most small value. To put it another way, there's supposed to be something uniq...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?
Replies: 93
Views: 5063

Re: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?

I would encourage Lynette to take an exploratory approach. You don't need to commit, but take a look, scope it out. Go into the cellar and look for the breaker box (or fusebox), figure out how to open the cabinet, look inside. Take the faceplate off the switch or socket, that really is an easy, and ...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 39
Views: 3601

Re: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads

There's a wide spectrum of behavior in between maintaining a perfectly constant asset allocation (as in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund), and going to cash whenever the 200-day moving average pirouettes across the 50-day moving average and the Baroom oscillator precesses into the House of Atreus. I...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?
Replies: 93
Views: 5063

Re: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?

P.S. One detail. In the United States, some houses in some parts of the country were wired with aluminum wire instead of copper. Find out if yours is before you start. If it is aluminum, a) that's bad, and b) leave everything strictly to the professionals. Everything you use with aluminum wire has t...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?
Replies: 93
Views: 5063

Re: Do you replace your electrical switches/outlets or use an electrician?

I've done both, but to tell the truth I haven't done it myself in a while. I know that because the last time I did it, we still had a fuse box. I always pulled the main house fuse before starting. I did it during the day, using a headlamp if necessary. I have a $20 gadget--you can get them at most h...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3333
Views: 839183

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall! :x

It's coming, sell, sell,sell. :twisted:


We're doomed! :shock:

I know about catching the falling knife but what am I supposed to do now? :confused
Catch the falling soldering iron?
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 39
Views: 3601

Re: Warren Buffet v. Bogleheads

So I guess the solution is to stay the course? :P If you stay the course, then you "will be less greedy than others when others are greedy, and less fearful than others when others are fearful." Or, perhaps, "you will be relatively fearful when others are greedy and relatively greedy...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 39
Views: 3601

Re: Warren Buffet v. Bogleheads

Warren Buffett drops out random sound bites, and I've never been able to stitch them together into a coherent investment strategy. "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful" does sound like words of wisdom; so does "buy low, sell high." But, in the...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback
Replies: 37
Views: 1415

Re: Interesting study on impact of providing investors feedback

In theory, you can trade off a Sharpe ratio any way you like. If you have a higher Sharpe ratio, you should be able to take that in the form of increased returns for the same risk. I think this is exactly what Larry does in "the Larry portfolio," for example. Comparing Sharpe ratios is bet...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 170
Views: 9219

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Valuations are not even close to what they were in 2000. The CAPE was 44 then, now it's about 29. It's just a crude and perhaps meaningless analogy, but in the physical world, if you think about springs, there is a certain point at which they break, but below that point they can flex large amounts o...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2151
Views: 584178

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Ivanhoe , by Sir Walter Scott. First rereading since high school. Didn't grab me then, doesn't grab me now. Eh, it's OK. It's drives me bananas that nobody ever says anything about the coincidence of Sir Walter Scott being a Scot, writing novels about historical Scotland, and being named Scott. I a...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 20, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bluetooth Transmitter
Replies: 4
Views: 491

Re: Bluetooth Transmitter

This is just a data point. Not really a recommendation. We were in exactly your situation. After wasting time being misinformed by a Best Buy salesperson who sold use a bluetooth audio receiver , we ended up buy a cheap $35 "mnxo Stereo Audio Wireless Bluetooth Transmitter." It connects to...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9814

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

1. Lack of data The 4% rule is designed to be safe even if you get bad numbers from the 9-10% bag. But we're not really sure it's a 9-10% bag. We've pulled out a lot of numbers from the bag over the last 140 years, and they make us thing it's a 9-10% bag. But it could still be a 7% bag, and we just...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do Taxes work with Mutual funds.
Replies: 21
Views: 1384

Re: How do Taxes work with Mutual funds.

Hi All, Just starting reading up on investing here on this great site and confused on tax implementations for a VG brokerage account. My experience has been with my 401K but never had to worry about income vs capital appreciation in my selected funds. Let say for example I have a taxable brokerage ...

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