Search found 32290 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return
Replies: 29
Views: 4196

Re: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return

Portfolio Visualizer uses Vanguard's large cap value and growth funds for the asset class returns - the combined benchmark for that would be VLACX (Vanguard's large cap index) and not their S&P 500 fund - if you use that in the backtest I believe you will see the performance difference disappea...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?
Replies: 75
Views: 4707

Re: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?

With regard to lack of diversification, I was struck when reading Booth Tarkington's novel, The Magnificent Ambersons , by his evocative descriptions of a real estate development when built, and just ten years later. It's just a novel but, yeah, this stuff happens. Just after completion: "He ha...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?
Replies: 75
Views: 4707

Re: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?

...Excuse me if I am completely wrong on this (as I said I am still young and trying to grasp what I want to do with my money), but just for general knowledge, has there been a time in the past that housing market went down drastically and the US stock market was doing well? I mean, in history, isn...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I choose and Financial Planner and what can I expect?
Replies: 10
Views: 748

Re: How do I choose and Financial Planner and what can I expect?

I'm not sure, but I once looked through a sample CFP exam and I was impressed by how little of financial planning involves investment advice . The big essay question asked the candidate to give a detailed answer to a long hypothetical involving a woman, running a small business with three employees,...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?
Replies: 75
Views: 4707

Re: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?

It's hard for a "mass affluent" retirement saver to invest in real estate with much diversification . Real estate tends to be a very small number of local properties--all in the same place. Furthermore, real estate is one single industry sector, and there are ten others. With real estate i...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive and Active, All the Time?
Replies: 15
Views: 1218

Re: Passive and Active, All the Time?

Searching, and failing to find, Sauter's paper, I did run across this, from Vanguard U.K., which Vanguard warns is only for institutional investors--"This video is directed at professional investors and should not be distributed to, or relied upon by retail investors." Combining Active and...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive and Active, All the Time?
Replies: 15
Views: 1218

Re: Passive and Active, All the Time?

Just for the record: at one point, Vanguard had on its website a paper by Gus Sauter, entitled "A Framework for Developing the Appropriate Mix of Index and Active Management." I thought it was completely unconvincing. It now seems to have vanished from Vanguard's website. It once was at: h...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4560

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

Random Walker wrote:...Big reason I bought the fund was its performance in extended bear markets for equities...
:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
The fund's inception was 7/16/2013. How does anyone know anything about its performance in "extended bear markets for equities?"
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $20K I-Bonds considered cash or bond?
Replies: 45
Views: 2625

Re: Is $20K I-Bonds considered cash or bond?

The answer can be found after the "I-". Sorry, I just don't agree. Yes, the word "bond" refers to a security with defined, contractual terms. A savings bond is a form of "bond" in that sense. However, in almost every respect it is different from "regular" bon...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $20K I-Bonds considered cash or bond?
Replies: 45
Views: 2625

Re: Is $20K I-Bonds considered cash or bond?

I think really important thing is simply the relative allocation of "stocks" versus "conservative assets." So I wouldn't worry too much about the distribution within the "conservative assets" part of the portfolio. "Bonds" can include everything from fairly ri...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Encyclopedia, World Book, Complete Set, 1960 Ed.
Replies: 43
Views: 3802

Re: Encyclopedia, World Book, Complete Set, 1960 Ed.

Dear rackornacki1 - Desperately seeking Volume S of World Book Encyclopedia 1960, white cover for sentimental reasons (elderly neighbors getting near the end, still fretting over the decades-old "lost volume"). If you still have (or anyone else does), please let me know. Thx. That's a swe...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Encyclopedia, World Book, Complete Set, 1960 Ed.
Replies: 43
Views: 3802

Re: Encyclopedia, World Book, Complete Set, 1960 Ed.

Tangential but since the thread has been revived... circa 1990... I really did lust after a copy of the print edition of the so-called "Britannica 3," which is/was very good and very well designed--the "Micropædia/Macropædia" idea works really well. The "Propædia" isn't...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?
Replies: 50
Views: 3184

Re: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?

I don't own Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns With Less Volatility, by Larry Swedroe and Kevin Grogan, ISBN 0615992978, but that's the book about the "Larry Portfolio" and if I were seriously going to adopt that kind of strategy, I would ce...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

Re: Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund

The expense ratio is 1.6%. Not sure why anyone would want it... Just a note, this is a revised old thread, that particular comment is from 2014, and the expense ratio is down to 0.25% now. That $250,000 minimum investment would only going to cost you $625/year, instead of $4,000/year. It's no longe...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

Re: Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund

I would not want it even if I could afford it. My impression is that Vanguard acquired it mostly because they wanted to have it in their Managed Payout fund (or funds, as they were originally). Since Vanguard chooses to benchmark it to three-month Treasury bills--"Citigroup 3-Month U.S. Treasur...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not enough US market listings?
Replies: 12
Views: 1092

Re: Not enough US market listings?

This is the article: Why the decline in the number of listed American firms matters.

OK, sure, there were lots more IPOs and listed companies in the dot-bomb era. I'm not convinced that made it a Golden Age.
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not enough US market listings?
Replies: 12
Views: 1092

Re: Not enough US market listings?

Sure. The so-called "Wilshire 5000" ...grew to a high count of 7,562 on July 31, 1998. Since then, the count fell steadily to 3,776 as of December 31, 2013, where it has then bounced back to 3,818 as of September 30, 2014... And it is now 3,599. But is this really a cause for concern? It j...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are pensions revered, but annuities reviled?
Replies: 106
Views: 7464

Re: Why are pensions revered, but annuities reviled?

There is a category of product that is called a "variable annuity." They are complex combinations of an investment component and an insurance component. In theory, the investment grows and then at retirement is converted to a life annuity. In practice, variable annuities are oversold by in...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Removing a tree - expensive!!!
Replies: 64
Views: 4858

Re: Removing a tree - expensive!!!

It was about seven years ago, but we had a silver maple that was starting to split and hang dangerously over the house. One estimate to remove it was $1,600. The second was $800. We accepted that one, and they removed it, stump and all, but there might have been a misunderstanding of some kind becau...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Standalone wrist pedometer/watch?
Replies: 9
Views: 498

Re: Standalone wrist pedometer/watch?

I love the price, but "free app included" is a deal-breaker for me. No apps! https://s16.postimg.org/ly0lp3ipx/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-04-21_a_las_4.50.40_PM.png The coin battery requirement will likely lead you to zero viable options. The functions on these type of devices just use more ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Standalone wrist pedometer/watch?
Replies: 9
Views: 498

Standalone wrist pedometer/watch?

I've done some Googling but I didn't find anything... I'm pretty fed up with my unreliable-syncing Fitbit... These are my desiderata: ⋅ Completely standalone. Does not require Bluetooth or any other kind of network connection or a smartphone or a tablet or an Internet connection or anythin...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop
Replies: 28
Views: 3083

Re: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop

All valid points. Accordingly, when we get new information, stock prices may change. But that doesn't mean the future has changed, just our best guess about it. Dead seriously, though--in your best rational analysis, do you think the future of GE was the same after the financial collapse as it was b...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop
Replies: 28
Views: 3083

Re: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop

...I have read countless times that if you are routinely and periodically investing in a market that you should be happy when that market drops because you start to get shares at a cheaper price... It's my personal belief that this is a) propaganda, and b) meaningless in terms of being anything you...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blowout [poor] investment RYJUX and replace with what?
Replies: 11
Views: 906

Re: Blowout [poor] investment RYJUX and replace with what?

...I've grown "tired" of waiting for interest rates to rise... They did rise. Right here. Not an apocalypse, but a real rise, not just a little fluctuation. I could see it in the bank account rates posted in my local bank. The thing you wished for happened. And furthermore, when it did ha...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blowout [poor] investment RYJUX and replace with what?
Replies: 11
Views: 906

Re: Blowout [poor] investment RYJUX and replace with what?

...Back in May of 2004 off a buddy's advice, I listened to Doug Fabian (Maverick investing) and at the current time he suggested holding your investment stash (taxed account, non IRA) 100% in RYJUX Juno funds Inverse Govt. L mutual funds... Yikes! That's terrible! Please take a moment to go read In...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4007

Re: Small cap fund index question

...My question is in regard to long term holding of the vanguard small cap index fund. Obviously you want these companies to grow and increase in value to make gains in investment however by the very nature of the fund won't your "winners" in the index eventually get too big and thus leav...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral
Replies: 12
Views: 1026

Re: Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral

It makes sense to start with something reasonable, and then spend six months or a year deciding whether you want to refine it. It also makes sense to go slowly--the kind of investing Bogleheads do never involves any great urgency. As long as two portfolios have about the same percentage of stocks, t...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why never speak badly about boss? [Need Bogleheads' wisdom]
Replies: 114
Views: 9680

Re: Why never speak badly about boss? [Need Bogleheads' wisdom]

The framework for thinking about this should be something like this: a) Am I seriously dissatisfied with my job because of my boss? b) What actions are available to me that might change the situation? c) For each action, what is the likelihood that it will make things better? What is the risk that i...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral
Replies: 12
Views: 1026

Re: Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral

It might be a good thing. Many posters in this forum like mid-caps, and many posters believe it's worthwhile having a "value tilt." (I'm not sure myself, and I just shrug and use Total Market). Before you take any action, though, you should take a deep breath and not base your decision on ...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: On the 0.00218% Securities Transaction Fee
Replies: 7
Views: 1090

Re: On the 0.00218% Securities Transaction Fee

triceratop wrote:
nisiprius wrote:I couldn't care less about the fee itself, but I'm just dying to know how they came up with the number "0.00218%."


Ask and ye shall receive...
Thanks!
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: On the 0.00218% Securities Transaction Fee
Replies: 7
Views: 1090

Re: On the 0.00218% Securities Transaction Fee

I couldn't care less about the fee itself, but I'm just dying to know how they came up with the number "0.00218%."
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Mutual Fund shares - watch ETF prices at 3:45pm?
Replies: 19
Views: 1840

Re: Selling Mutual Fund shares - watch ETF prices at 3:45pm?

Your point--you can use an ETF price at 3:45 to estimate what the mutual fund end-of-day settlement NAV will be--is right in principle, if you're just asking it in order to understand the process. 1) I haven't paid enough attention to know, but I think that prices can get volatile toward the end of ...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4560

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

I don't know if there's anything wrong with AQR's Managed Futures Fund (AQMIX), which is a mutual fund--I think--see the comment below. Mutual funds are regulated investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940 which afford significant protections to investors, which I don't think inve...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I purchase Apple Care for my new Apple Watch?
Replies: 25
Views: 1676

Re: Should I purchase Apple Care for my new Apple Watch?

My belief is that extended warranties don't usually pay for themselves, but that Apple plays hardball on original warranties, and that Apple plays nice with people with AppleCare, so if you sort of want AppleCare it's not bad; you probably won't use it but it probably will work if you do. I've only ...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From the short end of the yield curve
Replies: 9
Views: 764

Re: From the short end of the yield curve

Google found me a Financial Times article, "IMF sounds warning on China's corporate debt," and it warns vaguely of possible global "spillovers," but it doesn't say anything about it having anything to do with a flattening U.S. treasury yield curve.
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exchanging the S&P 500 for the TSM
Replies: 16
Views: 1938

Re: Exchanging the S&P 500 for the TSM

Total Stock is 2.9% higher than the S&P 500 fund over the last 10 years. http://i.imgur.com/GcOWFNd.png I don't see how you get 2.9%. I calculate it at (20,147.30/19,583.46)^(1/10) - 1 = 0.28%/year. Meanwhile, for the first ten years of VTSMX, the results were VTSMX (Total Stock) under performi...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1552

Re: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds

...I added VFIDX (Intermediate Investment Grade) to nisiprius's graph out of curiosity on Morningstar and it shows it to have much higher returns. I cannot reproduce the graph itself on this page... VFIDX is heavy in corporate bonds, and has noticeably more risk than Total Bond. Morningstar calls T...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exchanging the S&P 500 for the TSM
Replies: 16
Views: 1938

Re: Exchanging the S&P 500 for the TSM

I don't think there are any reasons. I'd just do it all at once. There are no tax implications in an IRA. The two funds are actually very close in their behavior, not only year by year, but even day by day . If you are doing it in an account in which you can make the transaction as an "exchange...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1552

Re: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds

(Yes, recycled from yesterday...) The following was posted in this forum on July 19th, 2009 here. I see the total bond fund and intermediate treasuries recommended a lot on here. I know people don't like to market time but interest rates are currently zero and whether rates rise in 2010 or 2011 or 2...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unwinding all positions and buy back after French Elections
Replies: 17
Views: 1643

Re: Unwinding all positions and buy back after French Elections

Here's why I think it's a fairly bad idea. When thinking about bad scenarios that we'd like to protect ourselves against, we focus on one bad possibility that for some reason captures our horrified attention, and we work out a storyline in detail. This is what enabled insurance companies to sell cra...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unwinding all positions and buy back after French Elections
Replies: 17
Views: 1643

Re: Unwinding all positions and buy back after French Elections

Here's why I think it's a bad idea. When thinking about bad scenarios that we'd like to protect ourselves against, we focus on one bad possibility that for some reason captures our horrified attention, and we work out a storyline in detail. This is what enabled insurance companies to sell crappy &qu...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3396

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

Wow. It sounds like the investors who stuck with the PIMCO Total Return Fund and didn't bail, had the last laugh. Those who left PIMCO and went to the new Bill Gross fund at Janus must be feeling pretty stupid right now. I don't know, I wouldn't lose that much sleep knowing my $10K underperformed b...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2552

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

The problem is we have had "financialization" of CCFs at the same time they were bound to be pretty sucky anyway. I don't know if financialization is going to unwind significantly any time soon, but they also may not be quite as useless as recent results suggest. Given that the only way t...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Vanguard's free RMD Service: Sign up before you turn 70½"
Replies: 23
Views: 2451

Re: "Vanguard's free RMD Service: Sign up before you turn 70½"

I have had some minor difficulty twice in the situation where I've set up an RMD of $X to be distributed in November, and then due to contingencies, took a distribution of $Y manually. As I look in my account right now, the "Retirement summary" page is showing "Your RMD calculation fo...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2552

"Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Media/2017/WSJ_April_14_2017.pdf Original: https://www.wsj.com/articles/commodities-in-your-portfolio-its-all-hogwash-says-wall-street-dissenter-1492206570 "Commodities in Your Portfolio? It’s All Hogwash, Says Wall Street Dissenter" When a famous ac...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best fund for international bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 460

Re: Best fund for international bonds

The very first choice you need to make, before starting to look at specifics and questions of active versus passive, is whether you want a dollar-hedged bond fund or an unhedged bond fund. The choice is important. Unhedged bond funds, which are the commonest, don't behave "like bonds" at a...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in International Index Fund?
Replies: 38
Views: 3118

Re: Why invest in International Index Fund?

deltaneutral83 wrote:
reriodan wrote:
If that is what you think, be glad you aren't Japanese.

I certainly understand this, it seems that the US market cap went down from 46% to 37% since 2003 to now in terms of market cap. Why have international markets lagged in prices?
Where did you get those numbers? Those numbers aren't correct.
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8894

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

...I started gradually shifting from bond funds to CDs in October 2010, but my bond funds have returned more since then... I don't want to bother searching for my old posts to confirm that I said so at the time, but to my recollection that's just about what I thought the tradeoff would turn out to ...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dealership rejecting rebate after contract signed
Replies: 82
Views: 6454

Re: Dealership rejecting rebate after contract signed

...the issue seems to be with the type of program (post-doc 4 year residency) that we were given to believe will qualify for the rebate. Its a matter of clarifying with TFS whether or not it does... :!: :!: :!: :!: Like, about a gazillion times as rigorous and difficult as your average "colleg...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8894

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

P.S. Regulars who've seen this before forgive me, but I really do need to cite this. Posted in this forum on July 19th, 2009 here. Doesn't it sound a bit like your sentiments? I see the total bond fund and intermediate treasuries recommended a lot on here. I know people don't like to market time but...

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