Search found 29523 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Optimizing my Vanguard Portfolio (dump Kiplinger funds?)
Replies: 5
Views: 435

Re: Optimizing my Vanguard Portfolio (dump Kiplinger funds?)

Whoa. I didn't read the other thread but here's an obvious reason why there might be a lot of "hate" for the Kiplinger's 25. Well, they certainly don't hide their agenda, do they?

Image
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Optimizing my Vanguard Portfolio (dump Kiplinger funds?)
Replies: 5
Views: 435

Re: Optimizing my Vanguard Portfolio (dump Kiplinger funds?)

I'd go slow if I were you, because, honestly, the "Prime Directive" is "stay the course." Resisting pressure to fiddle around with the portfolio is at least as important as trying to optimize the portfolio. I think your first task is, using any tool that's available to you--Vangu...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber's new book Investing With the House
Replies: 19
Views: 1363

Re: Meb Faber's new book Investing With the House

Here's something else to watch out for. Here comes some fact-free (I haven't read his book) free floating cynicism, but it's a pattern I've often noticed. a) Guru writes a book and articles espousing some interesting, convincing new investment strategy. It makes a lot of sense and there is a lot of ...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was today's rally temporary?
Replies: 20
Views: 1523

Re: Was todays rally temporary?

Above, I wrote: Somehow, one needs to develop a plan and an investing style that does not depend on predicting what the market will do Monday. And since we can't predict what will happen Monday, and definitely are not going to act on what will happen Monday, we try not to care what will happen Monda...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was today's rally temporary?
Replies: 20
Views: 1523

Re: Was todays rally temporary?

Kelli28, the annoyance you detect is because at some point we hope that forum visitors will learn what we mean by "Investing advice inspired by Jack Bogle." If you're not sure what kind of investing we do here, read the article on the Bogleheads investment philosophy . It wasn't written by...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber's new book Investing With the House
Replies: 19
Views: 1363

Re: Meb Faber's new book Investing With the House

If you believe that you can't identify the few that actually do have talent, then what does it matter whether or not they exist? The original premise of Wealthfront, before it became a roboadvisor managing sensible portfolios of lost-cost index ETFs, sounds almost exactly like Faber's idea. Using a ...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is all that "rebalancing band trigger" stuff really any better than this?
Replies: 19
Views: 911

Re: Is all that "rebalancing band trigger" stuff really any better than this?

There are several schools of thought in the forum and we argue without convincing each other. The big questions are: a) whether or not there is a "rebalancing bonus," an additional source of return that is not tapped if you do not rebalance, or whether we simply rebalance to maintain an al...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with $13 of hobby money?
Replies: 54
Views: 1876

Re: What to do with $13 of hobby money?

I knew a guy in college. I never personally saw it, but I was told that he had taken a pack of fifty dollar bills and applied rubber cement along one edge of the pack to turn it into a pad. Then when he was in a restaurant and it was time to pay the tip, he would whip out his pad of dollar bills and...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World stocks officially reach bear market territory
Replies: 25
Views: 3284

Re: World stocks officially reach bear market territory

I think a lesson here is not to expect too much difference from total global stock market investing and U.S.-only stock market investing. The U.S. stock market is about half of the total combined global stock markets, and the correlation between the U.S. stock market and the rest of the world has be...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody, and I mean nobody can predict interest rates
Replies: 12
Views: 1142

Re: Nobody, and I mean nobody can predict interest rates

Here's my post from Sept 22, 2015. (link) Just to be clear, it's this one. (The link is later on but it's not labelled). Gundlach: What to do when the Fed raises rates And you are correct that Gundlach was correct: the Fed did raise rates on December 16th, 2015--he didn't say they would, but his ex...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 20
Views: 1379

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Third, there really isn't IMO much to low vol, it's really that HIGH vol stinks and should be avoided. The other quintiles don't have much if any difference in returns, and the differences aren't monotonic as they are with value and size. So bottom line is don't need IMO to invest in low vol, just ...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody, and I mean nobody can predict interest rates
Replies: 12
Views: 1142

Re: Nobody, and I mean nobody can predict interest rates

Larry, I'm not sure what you mean when you say the yield curve "provides information on future rates," but applying a naïve interpretation I'd say the market's ability to predict interest rates doesn't look very good. In 2000 "the market" was willing to commit to paying out 6.64%...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 3143

Re: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?

Please please please please don't anybody say "blood in the streets" please pretty please with sugar on it.
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 20
Views: 1379

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

To what extent is low volatility a persistent, robust, reliable intrinsic characteristic of a stock? To what extent is past low volatility a sure indication of future low volatility? Is "low volatility" actually an actionable strategy or is it just a sophisticated form of "chasing&quo...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 3143

Re: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?

Lots of people, including participants in this forum, do invest based on the "smell of opportunity," of course, but... the word "opportunity" does not appear anywhere in the Bogleheads investment philosophy . "Have you ever had a hunch You should follow your nose? Then you h...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 51
Views: 5187

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

Most banks do not even have the ability from a technology perspective to charge negative rates. Really? That could be fixed by the end of the day. Add a little time for testing and you're done. It's not like you'd have the frenzy over Y2K all over again. I doubt that it could be fixed "by the ...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The alchemy of ETF liquidity is an illusory promise
Replies: 14
Views: 949

Re: The alchemy of ETF liquidity is an illusory promise

It's my understanding that with mutual funds the long term holders bear the cost of supplying liquidity to the short term holders. ETFs are more fair because people can only get in and out at market prices whereas with a mutual fund you are transacting at whatever NAV the mutual fund says (and they...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?
Replies: 46
Views: 3676

Re: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?

...Let me provide some examples of why I think long term treasuries are a better bet... Scenario 1 (1972-2015)... 1972-2015... In intermediate (or shorter-term) investment-grade bonds, holding to maturity is possible if you want to; and if you don't, interest rate movements do create headwinds and ...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 51
Views: 5187

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

source http://s8.postimg.org/uuewmntqt/Captura_de_pantalla_2016_02_11_a_las_1_46_14_PM.png If the Fed sets a negative target interest rate for overnight deposits, that doesn't mean Total Bond will earn negative rates. Right now, as I'm sure we're all aware, short-term rates (checking accounts, mone...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your decline in Net Worth as of today?
Replies: 75
Views: 6235

Re: What is your decline in Net Worth as of today?

I don't know and I don't care.
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Market Open supposed be Brutal...........
Replies: 39
Views: 3082

Re: Today's Market Open supposed be Brutal...........

pkcrafter wrote:This is a good example of jut how sensitive the market is to rumors. Well, it's not really the market, it's investors fearing....something, although I'm [not] sure what it is.

Paul
It's obvious: they fear rumors that today's market open is supposed to be brutal.
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The alchemy of ETF liquidity is an illusory promise
Replies: 14
Views: 949

Re: The alchemy of ETF liquidity is an illusory promise

Mr Marks is adamant: “No investment vehicle should promise greater liquidity than is afforded by its underlying assets. If one were to do so, what would be the source of the increase in liquidity? Because there is no such source, the incremental liquidity is usually illusory, fleeting and unreliabl...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?
Replies: 46
Views: 3676

Re: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?

The basic question is: do you use bonds in a dumb, unsophisticated way to dilute stock risk? In this configuration, the bond part of your portfolio has low return and low volatility... and they are reliable. They drag your return down but they do reliably reduce risk to just the same degree. Or, do ...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?
Replies: 46
Views: 3676

Re: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?

As someone who has lived through the inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, there is no conceivable way I would put my money into a fixed-dollar investment for thirty years. The total real-return statistics for all bonds over the forty-year period 1940 to 1980 are pretty bad (because that peri...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index funds a guaranteed return?
Replies: 42
Views: 2696

Re: Are index funds a guaranteed return?

No. We all know or should know the familiar disclaimer, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." There is another one, perhaps even more important, but less frequently mentioned--but you'll spot it if you keep an eye out for it: Diversification does not guarantee profit or pro...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: alleged pharmacist malpractice- does wife need a lawyer?
Replies: 32
Views: 2724

Re: alleged pharmacist malpractice- does wife need a lawyer?

Normally, it's the job of the plaintiff's attorney to embroil as many people as possible in the lawsuit (so that they can't escape blame by pointing at someone else). It is good that your wife is not named as a defendant. But I don't understand why not, if "they allege that my wife and the pres...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"
Replies: 9
Views: 1259

Re: "Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"

The fumbles underscore the volatility that has beset global markets... Yeah, volatility. That pesky old volatility. Blame it on volatility, it's volatility's fault. Goldman, Sachs' predictions would be reliable under normal circumstances when there isn't volatility. I just became aware of another b...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA-CREF - Can't get original contract?
Replies: 19
Views: 827

Re: TIAA-CREF - Can't get original contract?

When I actually annuitized my contract, I received a 13-page document with a slick cover and the title "Your TIAA contract." On closer inspection, though, I see that it is surprisingly vague--it discusses the specifics of the "guaranteed" payments, says that the graded payment me...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Math and Computer Science
Replies: 69
Views: 3244

Re: Math and Computer Science

This isn't your question, but I wonder if you should reconsider your question about your nephew's aptitude. This is what college is about, figuring out what your aptitude, figuring out what you love, figuring out a major, perhaps resisting parent's who want you to major in something because they th...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) getting killed
Replies: 52
Views: 4946

Re: 401(k) getting killed

It almost doesn't seem to matter what basket of stocks you have, they are taking a beating as of the last few months. Yes. This usually happens. Unfortunately my company will only let me invest my 401(k) in mutual funds. If the fund has stocks in it, I am losing money. Yes. When the stock market go...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Math and Computer Science
Replies: 69
Views: 3244

Re: Math and Computer Science

I'm not sure. I was a math major and, you know, got an OK grade and everything... but didn't feel any real lust for mathematics. I was rather put off by the degree of abstraction involved in real math, and the inability to see real-world references for the abstractions... and I didn't have what it t...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High school curriculum: Is filling out tax forms part of it?
Replies: 49
Views: 1203

Re: High school curriculum: Is filling out tax forms part of it?

Perhaps I'm not remembering correctly, but I think I remember doing a 1040A (or was it a 1040-EZ? did they exist then?) as part of the same junior high school civics unit in which we were asked to write up a budget for a family of four living on $5,000 a year. There must have been some place where I...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SRI, is there a "price" to pay?
Replies: 1
Views: 281

Re: SRI, is there a "price" to pay?

Larry, as I recall you have a chapter about SRI in The Only Guide To Alternative Investments You Will Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly , and you put it under "flawed." When I was younger and more naïve I used some SRI funds: Pax World, Domini Social Equity Index Fund*...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quest for lower fees: Found lowest cost option yet. Go with it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1419

Re: Quest for lower fees: Found lowest cost option yet. Go with it?

Speaking as a Vanguard fan , who admits to Vanguard brand loyalty, currently has all brokerage accounts at Vanguard and all securities investments in the form of Vanguard funds, I would say... ...if you are on a "quest" for the lowest fees, just because it is a kind of hobby of yours, even...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2754
Views: 546462

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Here is some noise for you to tune out. A correspondent pointed this out to me: Jeremy Siegel saying I was too bullish and here's why. It is rather amazing to me coming from Siegel . (Jeremy Siegel is the noted professor, famous author of Stocks for the Long Run , consultant at the Wisdomtree fund c...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 3421

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

PRPFX is a very poor representation of Harry Browne's preferred asset allocation (the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, or HBPP). It is way too tilted toward inflation and has high costs. The standard HBPP has 25% in cash, 25% in gold, 25% in long Treasurys, and 25% in stocks. That has done much be...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1355
Views: 280375

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just discovered Lee Child's Jack Reacher series and am at the glorious stage of having discovered a new series author that I like, and but not yet at the stage where I've cracked the "formula" and get disappointed at their being formulaic. Try to resist the temptation to read the books on...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 3421

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

My networth is shy of a million dollars and you can bet I would never have all 800k tied up in the stock market. Nor would I, and nor do I. But my non-stock stuff is all plain vanilla dumb traditional... what's the opposite of "alternative?" How long have you been holding precious metals?...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 3421

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

Since the Permanent Portfolio holds a meaningful allocation to precious metals, and since it is billed as being a conservative, defensive holding, it is reasonable to compare it to conservative portfolios without precious metals. Since the Permanent Portfolio mutual fund, PRPFX was developed with th...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 3421

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

"Need?" Could you expand that, please? I never like statements that say I "need" to invest in anything. Could you fill out the statement: why do I "need" to invest in precious metals? What vital thing will I miss without them, that I can achieve with a "small"...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer
Replies: 21
Views: 2174

Re: Jim Cramer

Just speaking personally and obviously my opinion is worthless because I don't do it... what on earth is the point of following somebody else's "fun" picks? What are you demonstrating, your ability to spot talent? It seems to me that if I were going to pick stocks I'd want to do something ...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are microshaped nylon-like doohickeys manufactured?
Replies: 9
Views: 985

Re: How are microshaped nylon-like doohickeys manufactured?

Thanks to all! I feel stupid but enlightened. My knowledge of injection molding probably came from personal experience of those coin-operated souvenir machines they used to have at museums, that would drop into your hand a freshly-molded warm rubber dinosaur reeking of solvent. http://farm8.staticfl...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer
Replies: 21
Views: 2174

Re: Jim Cramer

How many stocks does it take to be truly diversified? ... if you insist on more than fifteen or more stocks, you might as well hand off your money to one of those mutual fund fellows, although the costs, in fees, will be prohibitive unless you select a passive model, such as an index fund. Does any...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are microshaped nylon-like doohickeys manufactured?
Replies: 9
Views: 985

Re: How are microshaped nylon-like doohickeys manufactured?

If I look at the rounded end of the ear cleaner under a microscope, should I be able to see a mold line somewhere?
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is CD an investment or savings?
Replies: 17
Views: 982

Re: Is CD an investment or savings?

The bank guy is confused or trying to manipulate you. In my opinion (and bobcat2 said I was right!) --"Savings" is money you didn't spend --"Investment" is wherever you put that money until you do spend it. Maybe we should add that it is someplace where you hope it will grow. Ban...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are microshaped nylon-like doohickeys manufactured?
Replies: 9
Views: 985

How are microshaped nylon-like doohickeys manufactured?

I've been brooding for some time on how important new technologies sneak into our lives without our noticing them, because what we learn about is the products, not the technologies that make them possible. Rare earth magnets, for example... Anyway, I think I've noticed another. In the drugstore, the...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are US Stocks Overvalued?
Replies: 18
Views: 1886

Re: Are US Stocks Overvalued?

1) Even on the face of it, it doesn't tell us whether or not stocks are "overvalued." It tells us only that stocks and bonds are valued consistently with each other. 2) If you believe in a coming "bondpocalypse," then it would follow that "interest rates can only go up, and ...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 07, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1355
Views: 280375

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just discovered Lee Child's Jack Reacher series and am at the glorious stage of having discovered a new series author that I like, and but not yet at the stage where I've cracked the "formula" and get disappointed at their being formulaic. Currently reading Nothing to Lose . What to call t...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 18
Views: 2621

Re: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

Nobody knows nothing! ---- I do find it interesting that the majority of opinions today seem to be forecasting 'lower returns'....I remember the late 1980s, after quite a run up in the stock market, most everyone was predicting lower returns for the 1990s. No, not quite. You are not remembering the...

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