Search found 6584 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own individual stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 3851

Re: Why own individual stocks?

I would caution investors not to expect stock picking to beat the market, it is difficult enough for market professionals to do. My suspicion is that my individual stocks have just about matched market performance. I have owned individual stocks since 1988, I bought my first mutual fund in 1984. I h...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 54
Views: 4239

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

It used to be a no brainer to load up on oil stocks when oil prices were low and wait for the rebound. Pretty much like predicting that the sun would rise tomorrow. My concern is that things have changed for the oil industry as perhaps they have happened for the coal industry. The horizontal drillin...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 77
Views: 2495

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

I'm 48 and spouse is 52. I know that bonds reduce overall volatility. However, if I'm not concerned about a bumpy road during the next 10 years or so, why bother having any? If here's a global meltdown, 20% won't be enough to be meaningful. I am on board that within 5 years of retirement, I need to...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY 10TH BIRTHDAY BOGLEHEADS FORUM
Replies: 51
Views: 1857

Re: HAPPY 10TH BIRTHDAY BOGLEHEADS FORUM

This has been a great place to learn and a great place to interact with some really bright people. It has been a great experience for me. Happy Birthday Bogleheads and many more!!
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own individual stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 3851

Re: Why own individual stocks?

I don't know, I hear all this stuff about gambling instinct and individual stocks and I just don't buy it. I bought individual stocks as long term holdings of businesses that I would like to own personally. Since I am not rich enough to buy the whole company, I just only buy a very small piece of it...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much do small speculators underperform by?
Replies: 7
Views: 569

Re: How much do small speculators underperform by?

Hard to know. I track my own performance on Quicken but I am a bit dubious that the numbers are calculated correctly. In any case, most individual investors probably don't have an accurate number for their own performance much less sharing that performance with the rest of the world. It would seem t...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund to be renamed.
Replies: 2
Views: 702

Re: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund to be renamed.

The following message was sitting in my Vanguard account inbox: On or about February 23, 2017, Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund will be renamed Vanguard Municipal Money Market Fund. The investment objective, limitations, and attributions of the fund will remain the same, including the 20% limi...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.
Replies: 20
Views: 1408

Re: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.

Active management sometimes actually does work but the problem is that what they charge for management fees can outweigh whatever outperformance they get. One trouble with these debates about active vs passive funds is that the discussion seems to revolve around performance and then of course devol...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Limited Partnership?
Replies: 13
Views: 831

Re: Investment in Limited Partnership?

I would be very cautious about limited partnerships. Why pour money into illiquid investments when good liquid alternatives are out there. There are Master Limited Partnerships that trade like stocks on the exchanges and they might be worth some consideration but they can be a tax nightmare, I would...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Market Fears
Replies: 54
Views: 5276

Re: Stock Market Fears

For many years now I have stayed the course, but lately I have begun to wonder if this is a wise plan. I recently read a post by a Boston economist who suggested moving everything to short-term Treasuries in anticipation of a market crash. My husband and I have considerable assets and right now are...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.
Replies: 20
Views: 1408

Re: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.

Active management sometimes actually does work but the problem is that what they charge for management fees can outweigh whatever outperformance they get. John Bogle once said that index funds work not because markets are efficient but because they are cheap. I have gotten this and over the last 10-...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation does not matter (may be)
Replies: 55
Views: 3593

Re: Valuation does not matter (may be)

txman While the monetary BASE has increased sharply, that isn't what's important, as will noted. It's the money SUPPLY that matters. And thus you have MB X MV = MS, so base times velocity. But V is way down as bank lending fell sharply. So MB has grown about historical rates, not much above 6%. Now...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 33
Views: 3770

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

Jfet, I think Samsung was once the largest holding of VWO. As I recall, Korea has graduated to the developed markets fund. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsAllHoldings?FundId=0964&FundIntExt=INT&tableName=Equity&tableIndex=0&sort=marketValue&sortOrder=desc zotty, I also wis...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with recent inheritance and investments
Replies: 10
Views: 568

Re: Help with recent inheritance and investments

I think it is scandalous to force young people to finance their education with what amounts to be a mortgage, a burden that is there before a career is even started. I also believe that in many cases, college just costs too much, particularly in the day of the internet and modern technology which sh...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is working to improve service
Replies: 7
Views: 771

Re: Vanguard is working to improve service

Good organizations become aware of their problems and endeavor to solve them. I would say be patient with Vanguard and give them a chance to iron all of this out.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4562

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

I am aware that bonds can have negative real returns. That is the reason that I own TIPS. Another poster made the point that the risk is mitigated by owning Intermediate Term Investment Grade Bonds and reinvesting the interest or in the case of bond funds, reinvesting the dividends.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 4914

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

Toons wrote:Have owned Investment Company Of America,
Capital Income Builder ,
with American Funds for many years.
If I had to choose a load fund family it would be American. :happy


I own that very fund in my ROTH IRA and have been pleased with it.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 23
Views: 3698

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

I think Merriman has a sound approach, it is pretty much small/value tilting, adding REITs, and having a large allocation to International Stocks. My concern is similar to Garland's, pretty much the pizza is sliced into a lot of pieces and perhaps a simpler portfolio like the Coffeehouse portfolio ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?
Replies: 58
Views: 5625

Re: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?

100% stock is reasonable for a very young investor but that is assuming that young investors all have high risk tolerances. I started out as a very cautious investor, my IRA was in FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposit until a friend went into the brokerage business. I moved my account to him and it...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good time to buy bonds?
Replies: 8
Views: 1065

Re: Good time to buy bonds?

I have been buying bonds in here not because they are screaming values but because I have been rebalancing. Yields are up somewhat after November 8th but inflation seems to be ticking up a bit too. Not sure if they are better values than before, what really matters is yield after inflation.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 4914

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

Unfortunately too many people just jump on idea that active management is going to underperform. Active management isn't bad because of being dumb. It's typically high expenses, which American doesn't have, excluding the loads, which many investors can avoid. Also index funds other than TSM are unf...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High valuations - still worth buying?
Replies: 9
Views: 823

Re: High valuations - still worth buying?

Remember that during bull markets, stocks always look expensive. Just checked, the forward P/E for the US Total Stock Market is about 19. In contrast, an International Developed Markets Index has a forward P/E of 15.5 and an Emerging Markets Index has forward P/E of 11.6. If you can accept that Inte...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral finance and prospect theory, it's impact on prices/returns
Replies: 3
Views: 441

Re: Behavioral finance and prospect theory, it's impact on prices/returns

A lot of successful investing is managing our emotions. We all like to think that we are more cool under pressure and more rational than we really are. Human emotions are a very powerful force and we should respect that. We buy stocks for our rational selves and bonds for our emotional selves.
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?
Replies: 58
Views: 5625

Re: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?

100% stock is reasonable for a very young investor but that is assuming that young investors all have high risk tolerances. I started out as a very cautious investor, my IRA was in FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposit until a friend went into the brokerage business. I moved my account to him and it ...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 23
Views: 3698

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

I think Merriman has a sound approach, it is pretty much small/value tilting, adding REITs, and having a large allocation to International Stocks. My concern is similar to Garland's, pretty much the pizza is sliced into a lot of pieces and perhaps a simpler portfolio like the Coffeehouse portfolio w...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral finance and prospect theory, it's impact on prices/returns
Replies: 3
Views: 441

Re: Behavioral finance and prospect theory, it's impact on prices/returns

This goes to show that investing should be boring and that investors should gravitate towards the unpopular and unloved which is Value. It is counter to our emotional selves which in good markets gravitates towards what is popular and loved and what has recently performed well. Conversely, we should...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard leaves crumbs for active fund managers
Replies: 21
Views: 2568

Re: Vanguard leaves crumbs for active fund managers

Having the asset pool for active managers shrink might actually in the long run be good for active managers. For one thing, there are more mutual funds out there than investable stocks here in the United States! It is a bloated industry that could use a diet. Some of the better known funds have too ...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Planner for my Parents
Replies: 6
Views: 560

Re: Financial Planner for my Parents

It seems to me that one of the first items on the agenda is to simplify your parent's investments so that they are more easily understandable and more easily managed. Second, would be to have a durable power of attorney for your parents so that a competent person can step in if the parents become un...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio - thoughts?
Replies: 9
Views: 560

Re: My portfolio - thoughts?

Hello all. I am new here. I'm 56 and hoping to retire early, say at 62 or 63. I'm also concerned about potential uncertainties under the current Administration. So, I finally took the plunge. Sold all my stocks and reallocated to index funds, mostly Vanguard, and divided between 35% BND ETF and a l...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads not the norm?
Replies: 116
Views: 9967

Re: Bogleheads not the norm?

No Bogleheads are not the norm. A frightening number of folks out there just live paycheck to paycheck with little or no savings.
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation does not matter (may be)
Replies: 55
Views: 3593

Re: Valuation does not matter (may be)

taking the wrong message from a chart.In fact valuations matter a great deal. Now that doesn't mean one should try to TIME the market. But valuations do impact the need to take risk. Larry This is a good summary. Someone else raised a good point that valuations matter less to young investors than t...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2199

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

Yes, low interest rates are one factor causing high stock valuations. As interest rates fall, cash flows generated by stocks or bonds become more valuable. Stocks can go up with rising interest rates if the raise in rates is caused by a strong economy. To a degree, higher earnings from a strong econ...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time
Replies: 25
Views: 3491

Re: Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time

Wow. 4 Trillion. Vanguard could almost be its own country.
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

Last I checked, these stocks were 12.6% of my retirement portfolio. . . . I still enjoy working with individual stocks in my portfolio and so far they have not hurt me. Face it Nedsaid, you crave excitement, the thrill of the chase, you seek to exercise your animal spirits :P But that's ok, our men...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

Whatever success I have had with investments are largely due to buying quality and to long holding periods. Here is a sampling of long holding periods for many of my favorite investments. My first mutual fund - owned since July 1984. Weyerhauser - many of these shares are Plum Creek shares I bought ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

Ned, Given what you know about this NedSaid phenomenon, why are you bothering with individual stocks? :happy Since you are a super poster Boglehead, I had to ask. The phenomenon that I describe works with any type of investment, its effects upon individual stocks are the most dramatic. I am sharing...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help, please... Variable Annuity to IRA or other
Replies: 20
Views: 566

Re: Help, please... Variable Annuity to IRA or other

Hi...My name is Chris, I am 42, and I think I am a poor investor... (Everyone: Hi Chris) I just finished reading The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing SE, and I have come to the conclusion that I have made a very poor and costly decisions that I would like to recover from as quickly as possible. (I am...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talking sense
Replies: 34
Views: 2375

Re: Talking sense

I am 49 with two young boys who are going on 4 and 7 later this year. I have always invested in the stock market, usually being close to fully invested and not usually investing with a boglehead mentality. I've done a lot of trading over the years, but have also invested through my 401(k). I earn a...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months
Replies: 19
Views: 1593

Re: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months

Is anybody now more worried about future returns? I think Larry had some fairly low predictions for US returns and this year blew the predictions out of the water. Glad I didn't reduce US exposure. One reason the S&P 500 has gone up 20% in the last 12 months is that the market was bottoming out...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1736

Re: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes

When you're shorting "losers" that rise 156% in 3 months and your "winners" rise by only 6.5% as was the case in March-May 2009, you lose your shirt. I had a MOM investor friend, a very smart doctor who made so much money on very aggressively trading MOM that he was able to reti...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

If you sold Applied Materials for a good reason, then its price today is insignificant to you. And if truly believe in the long term prospects of Gilead and Coke, then you should consider buying more at the lower prices. Gilead appears to be very cheap, I bought a second installment of the stock. C...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion about VGPMX for 2017 [Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining]
Replies: 44
Views: 2026

Re: Opinion about VGPMX for 2017 [Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining]

My best guess is that the train has already left the station. A Global Gold fund that I have followed for years is up over 71% over the last year. I have followed the fund but never purchased.
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

I had noticed the NedSaid effect before I read about it here. I have had the NedSaid effect happen to me in 99% of my transactions to the point that now when I do something with money I expect it to lose value. I try very hard to not touch the money for this very reason. I think part of this effect...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficent Frontier Stock / Bond curve for foriegn markets?
Replies: 20
Views: 1153

Re: Efficent Frontier Stock / Bond curve for foriegn markets?

[ To name a couple that sometimes escape notice: I don't know why, but a number of asset classes--REITs, small-cap value, international stocks, and to a limited extent junk bonds, to name four--all went up during 2000-2002 when the US stock market as a whole was going down. I believe that this sing...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

Ned, do you anticipate making any tactical moves prior to the end of the 1stQ 2017 ? :) It really wasn't a tactical move but a desire to trim a hot investment and to rebalance into something cheaper. Shoot, I don't even like to rebalance. Since November 8th, stocks are up and bonds are down. It see...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

Wakefield1 wrote:I believe that effect works on mutual funds too.


It works with stocks, mutual funds, asset classes. A lot of this effect is caused by investor impatience. We just get tired of losers and want to upgrade our portfolios.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

WildBill wrote:

I still have the AMAT shares I bought at $2 in 1992.

Please sell some more :P

W B


Glad to be of service. :wink:
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficent Frontier Stock / Bond curve for foriegn markets?
Replies: 20
Views: 1153

Re: Efficent Frontier Stock / Bond curve for foriegn markets?

My advice is to diversify across asset classes. Using Target Date and Target Risk funds as templates for your own portfolio will give you a rough idea of how to construct a portfolio. For example, Vanguard is recommending that 40% of a stock portfolio and 30% of a bond portfolio should be invested ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need to replace rear shocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 819

Re: Need to replace rear shocks?

I would say replace the shocks. You tend to get used to your car's handling and it might be worse than you realize. Your life depends upon such things as suspension systems and braking, this is not an area to economize. This is true. My wife's 2009 Odyssey last summer had a leaky rear shock noted b...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3783

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

Ned Said, I think that if you were to keep careful records, you'd find that the Nedsaid effect is a result of paying more attention to your losses than your wins. I actually do keep careful records, part of what I am doing is to not overstate my prowess as an investor. I have talked about my wins a...

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