Search found 9663 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokered CDs vs. Bond Funds in a self-directed 401(k)
Replies: 2
Views: 179

Re: Brokered CDs vs. Bond Funds in a self-directed 401(k)

This is actually a pretty good idea. You can pick up a bit of yield by buying these on the secondary market. You have to realize though that CDs fluctuate in value just like a bond and just like a bond, there is a bid/ask spread when you buy these on the secondary market. There are people on the for...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2240

Re: Vanguard Advisor

OP, as you can see, there are many here who consider PAS a good value, and others who are confident that they possess the focus, knowledge, skill, and discipline to achieve equivalent or superior results. It is not possible to know whether any particular respondent in either category is correct or ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2240

Re: Vanguard Advisor

Most of what you will get for your 30bps is the conventional wisdom regarding asset allocation, which you can get for free here and from many other places. The greater problem, whether you are paying 30bps or getting it for free, is that the conventional wisdom largely reflects the settled views of...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My meeting with the Vanguard PAS [Personal Advisor Services]
Replies: 16
Views: 1642

Re: My meeting with the Vanduard PAS

I think trying to work your numbers to last till 100 is way too conservative. Most retirees net worth have increased as they have got older and many of them were retired during the great recession. All of my older uncles and aunts in their 90s don't even spend their ssi and pension income, not to e...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4009

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

Wow, the Nedsaid effect works even with ETFs based on indexing. That is what you sell tends to outperform what you bought to replace it. The sells tend to outperform the buys at a 2:1 or even a 3:1 ratio. Goshdarn it anyway, I wish I could trademark the "Nedsaid effect." An entire new investment st...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 695

Re: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?

Can't get to article, but it's an interesting question. Another interesting question: Can the increasing popularity of factor investing kill off the very premiums it seeks? The value factor for example was first described by Fama and French in 1992, the same year that Vanguard introduced it's Value...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4009

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

It's kind of funny, when I clicked on the thread to see what Nedsaid wrote, it actually dumped me a few posts above where I had said,"But I think its the case that the computers will create different anomalies in the future than have existed in the past. The past ones are pretty easy for them to ar...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 67
Views: 9646

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

thanks for posting, outstanding article and why many financial advisors say they don't manage money as much as they manage people Larry This was one of the best financial articles that I have ever read. It also reinforces what I often say here that the markets and the economy are dynamic. One can p...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4009

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

St Lutz, Yes I do think small stocks are riskier than big stocks. Who would you rather lend money to, a huge multinational company or a smaller local or regional company? Who would you charge the higher interest rate? The cost of capital for a company equals the expected return for the company’s st...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing
Replies: 8
Views: 679

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing

the only year that the HFRX index outperformed the S&P 500 was 2008. Even worse, compared to a balanced portfolio of 60 percent S&P 500 Index/40 percent Barclay’s Government/Credit Bond Index it underperformed every single year. from 08-17 This is what I mean that the benefits of portfolio insuranc...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ Article on Aging -- Scary Stuff..
Replies: 16
Views: 1637

Re: WSJ Article on Aging -- Scary Stuff..

End of life issues are unpleasant. In the movies, the dying person is alert right to the end surrounded by loving family while on the deathbed. The dying person says emotional good-byes and the last words are profound. Real life, in most cases, is much different than that. For one thing, caregiving ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 115
Views: 23505

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

You'll notice that Bob's AA entries are rounded, but Sharpe carries the AA percentages out to two decimal points. So I think Sharpe leans toward precision and always doing the quarterly exchanges. Yeah, I'll have to stop rounding, because you're absolutely right about Sharpe's precision. In fact, i...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 695

Re: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?

I am reminded of the Yogi Berra quote, "That restaurant is so crowded that nobody goes there anymore." I am concerned that the factor restaurant is getting too crowded. Another word for this is financialization, that is where institutions crowd narrow segments of the investment markets and take away...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 695

Re: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?

sbillertpa wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:07 am
Unable to read without a subscription...
Try Googling the article title.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks vs. dividend ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1504

Re: Dividend stocks vs. dividend ETFs

My wife and I just retired (63/64) and we have about $250,000 to invest in dividend stocks. What are people's thoughts about investing in individual dividend stocks vs. dividend ETFs? I am considering buying Vanguard VIG and VYM ETFs but the yields are only about 2% and 3% respectively. I could pro...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "4 Reasons Why We Overcomplicate Investing"
Replies: 20
Views: 2689

Re: "4 Reasons Why We Overcomplicate Investing"

A fifth force against simplicity is the desire to maintain a steady return while minimizing volatility. We all would like our accounts to grow at a steady 8% year after year, not up 15% one year and down 5% the next. In other words, we want a smoother ride.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing
Replies: 8
Views: 679

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing

Well, Hedge Funds don't correlate with the US Stock Market. Probably the number one rationale for owning them. Money under my mattress also doesn't correlate with the market. There needs to be a better reason for owning them. It’ll be interesting to see how they weather the next big crash. The idea...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing
Replies: 8
Views: 679

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing

Well, Hedge Funds don't correlate with the US Stock Market. Probably the number one rationale for owning them. Money under my mattress also doesn't correlate with the market. There needs to be a better reason for owning them.
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $800,000 Windfall. Love the 3-Fund portfolio approach. Wealth Managers in contact
Replies: 33
Views: 3942

Re: $800,000 Windfall. Love the 3-Fund portfolio approach. Wealth Managers in contact

Wealth managers are an appeal to ego. We all want special attention and customization. Not always easy to tell the good ones from the bad ones. Probably the biggest value from a wealth manager would be to keep you from making behavioral errors that individual investors make. Problem is, they are hum...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking bond fund
Replies: 13
Views: 1013

Re: Rethinking bond fund

When rebalancing my three fund portfolio, I was looking at the options for my bond fund picks (I'm with Fidelity). They were pretty abysmal. All with YTD in the red. Most feel that interest rates will continue to rise. Given rates have been incredibly low for several years, I'd tend to agree. This ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you handle the urge to DO something?
Replies: 102
Views: 6457

Re: How do you handle the urge to DO something?

The Boglehead philosophy is to decide on your long term investment strategy, allocate your assets accordingly and then do nothing outside of an annual rebalance for the next 20/30/40/50+ years. That is difficult for me because I am a doer, I have to struggle daily to just leave it. My brain knows i...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5012

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

People has discussed High Dividend stocks as a surrogate bond and now we are considering High Yield Bonds as a Stock substitute. If I want bonds, I want real bonds. If I want stocks, I want real stocks. The real thing rather than the substitute. I take risk on the equity side because I want return,...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5012

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

People has discussed High Dividend stocks as a surrogate bond and now we are considering High Yield Bonds as a Stock substitute. If I want bonds, I want real bonds. If I want stocks, I want real stocks. The real thing rather than the substitute. I take risk on the equity side because I want return,...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm
Replies: 12
Views: 1103

Re: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm

Exactly. How do you know if you are being influenced by "confirmation bias"? Wouldn't you want to sell high, then buy low? OTOH, I haven't looked at how the other funds you mentioned have performed. I suppose that if you look at the combined performance of all of those international funds together ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5012

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

People has discussed High Dividend stocks as a surrogate bond and now we are considering High Yield Bonds as a Stock substitute. If I want bonds, I want real bonds. If I want stocks, I want real stocks. The real thing rather than the substitute. I take risk on the equity side because I want return, ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm
Replies: 12
Views: 1103

Re: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm

Called for the annual checkup with Vanguard Flagship services. First time for me. :D All went well, representative professional albeit disappointed I didn't agree to have him maintain my account and asked, "why not"? I said, cause...: happy Anyway, the big change they suggested was to decrease my I...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced Funds and Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 50
Views: 2971

Re: Balanced Funds and Sequence of Return Risk

Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:21 am
My simple brain reads this as a "beer in a bottle" vs "beer in a can" scenario.
Not sure.
Is that generally the comparison? :shock:
j
Except that beer in a bottle tastes better. :wink:
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 14 years with Bogleheads
Replies: 13
Views: 1990

Re: 14 years with Bogleheads

Good to hear good comments from someone who was helped here. I have invested since 1984 and have tried different things and consider myself a seasoned investor. I have learned an awful lot here and have benefitted myself from the advice given here on the forum.
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advice Please
Replies: 30
Views: 2952

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advice Please

Thanks so much for responding. You make a lot of sense. I did not know that about ETFs and will probably go with one of the low cost indexes. As far as Fidelity Go, I went to the website and plugged in my information and...what do you know it recommends a 70-30 portfolio with an array of Fidelity F...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Investing Lessons from a Top Poker Player
Replies: 4
Views: 1185

Re: Swedroe: Investing Lessons from a Top Poker Player

A pretty good article by Larry. The analogy of poker compared to investing is flawed. The analogy holds up in one sense that both successful investors and successful gamblers will tilt the odds in their favor as much as possible. Where it breaks down is that investing is not gambling though there ar...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Replies: 8
Views: 1048

Re: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Bogleheads: Several years ago I accompanied a wealthy investor who was invited to be a customer in Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Service. We enjoyed a nice lunch and persuasive marketing by two Bank officers. Fortunately my friend decided to use Vanguard's Personal Advisor Services which recomme...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advice Please
Replies: 30
Views: 2952

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advice Please

First post. I have been lurking for a few months and appreciate the wealth of information that many on the board provide. I am a teacher and new to investing. Our retirement income will be comprised mostly of my pension (about 70% of living expenses), my wife’s Social Security and drawing a small a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do insurance agents add value? How?
Replies: 24
Views: 1462

Re: Do insurance agents add value? How?

I missed my six-month auto insurance premium because the bill was filed away, and I just plain forgot it was due. Last night, I found the bill, paid up, and the policy was reinstated. Going forward, I will set up automated payments to prevent this from recurring. I feel let down that I didn’t get a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Like Lifestrategy Funds but???
Replies: 32
Views: 3267

Re: Like Lifestrategy Funds but???

I remember when Vanguard added the International Bond Fund. There was much discussion here. After 5 years, the International Bond Fund has returned 3.87% while the Total Bond Fund has returned 2.20%. At least for the past 5 years nobody has been hurt who had the International Bond Fund. Hmmm. This ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Like Lifestrategy Funds but???
Replies: 32
Views: 3267

Re: Like Lifestrategy Funds but???

Dude2 wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:14 pm
I love LS funds (or TR) because they help me not to tinker. Set it and forget it.
Let Vanguard do the tinkering for you. :wink:
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

You are missing barriers to entry, competitive advantage, or what Morningstar calls a moat. Many of these companies have competitive advantages that are hard to replicate. There is also the value of a brand, the value of a franchise, and also the going concern value of a company. Once a business ge...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

You are missing barriers to entry, competitive advantage, or what Morningstar calls a moat. Many of these companies have competitive advantages that are hard to replicate. There is also the value of a brand, the value of a franchise, and also the going concern value of a company. Once a business ge...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11879

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

The idea that there were still enough bids to sell all the securities is irrelevant. If the Treasury could not sell all the securites the Treasury would not have the money to pay its debts. Using the idea that all the securites were still sold so everything's AOK is absurd. If the Government cannot...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for my homeowner's association
Replies: 33
Views: 1727

Re: Investing for my homeowner's association

I'd say the first priority would be to draft, if you don't have one, an Investment Policy Statement that is formally adopted by your board. Do this BEFORE making any changes to your actual investments. Your actual investment policy will depend a LOT on your HOA's particulars, but managing the reser...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

I think the value of Larry’s factor book is way more generalizable (is that a word?) than the factors themselves. His 5 criteria for evaluating factors can be used to evaluate the possible benefit of any potential portfolio addition. Appreciating that all components of the portfolio meet the persis...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for my homeowner's association
Replies: 33
Views: 1727

Re: Investing for my homeowner's association

Be careful with fancy investing in something like a HOA, where you are a fiduciary and there may be near term cash necessities. +1 Brokered short term CD's, Treasuries, MM, High Yield accounts. Security of principal and liquidity is vital. j That is as far as I would go. Too often, you get a charis...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2617

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

Larry touched on a couple things here that I agree with. First of all, I am skeptical of the investor questionnaires used to judge an investor's risk tolerance. My belief is that these questionnaires have a bias towards a higher stock allocation. A good rule of thumb is to take the stock allocation ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 152
Views: 29862

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

You can't live on $9000 per year. Take that same $300K and buy a $1.2M 24-unit building, now your 'dividend' is a cool $110K per year (that you legally paid zero taxes on after deducting expenses and depreciation). My understanding is that a landlord's cash return on real estate is about 6% a year....
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Homer J, I’m not expecting anywhere near the accuracy &/or precision you describe. Then I don't understand how you can "tune" your portfolio to be super efficient using factors. Larry has said many times that one can lower their equity exposure, if they use factors to give themselves higher expecte...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8628

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I go along with Academic Research; they are probably correct. Maybe I should ramp up to 10% stocks....but...they give me heartburn. I'm more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. Excellent discussion! Just keep in mind that even with "low" 2% annual inflation, the purc...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Inflation Timing Be Done?
Replies: 15
Views: 1015

Re: Can Inflation Timing Be Done?

Don't know about the research on this. My suspicion is that the track record for this is similar to that of timing the stock market and predicting interest rates. So many factors involved.
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11879

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

ThriftyPhD wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:20 pm

Great minds think alike?
Well, I have called Yogi Berra the Great American Philosopher. Right up there with the T-Shirt philosopher who said, "Stuff happens."

Well, it wasn't stuff, but you get the idea.
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

I think Larry has written that the valuation spread between value and growth has not really decreased compared to the mid 1990’s, indicating that there is not significant chasing of the value factor. Dave Bernstein expects the small and value premiums to both drop but not disappear. His advice is t...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 152
Views: 29862

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I used the Morningstar X-Ray Stock Intersection tool on my portfolio. You can see the company name, ticker, and percentage of my retirement portfolio for each stock. Not much change from last time I did this analysis. The stocks individually held are bolded. You can see that I am not heavy on the FA...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11879

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

by Oicuryy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:20 pm nedsaid wrote: ↑Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:29 am Didn't the Fed just raise the Federal Funds rate to 2% in June and signal that there will be one more rate hike in 2018 than what had previously been anticipated? An uptick in T-Bill rates should not be too surprising. I...