Search found 6161 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1904

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

Nedsaid Each to his own definition. I would not include low turnover in passive, but can understand others including it. To me it's about systematic exposure to factors or asset classes. BTW- I know of a fund with about $1b in AUM who has one very part time trader, basically submits the trades to t...
by nedsaid
Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penn Treaty insurance, let's see how the guaranty associations perform
Replies: 6
Views: 470

Re: Penn Treaty insurance collapses, due to long-term-care policies

Another vindication of my decision not to buy long-term care insurance. I would be interested to learn more about the guaranty association in the State of Pennsylvania handles this.
by nedsaid
Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What you should know before you do factor investing
Replies: 9
Views: 669

Re: What you should know before you do factor investing

The thing you need to keep in mind is that the mindset for a long term investor is a lot different from a trader. A long term investor wants to participate in the economy and to use securities as a proxy for being a business owner, an owner of investment Real Estate, and a lender to business and gov...
by nedsaid
Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1904

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

Nedsaid yes I agree we are basically on same page. Just two things to add First the stock screens are not continuously updated, which implies with great regularity. I can recall two significant changes, as I noted, in 20 years, the first to incorporate momentum in 2003 and the second in I think 201...
by nedsaid
Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is best health ministry for health insurance?
Replies: 20
Views: 1480

Re: What is best health ministry for health insurance?

Every year I look at these and think about it. We've decided to continue with regular health insurance for the next year. One factor is that our health insurance deductibles and all other health insurance costs are currently paid with pre-tax dollars. In the highest tax bracket, that is not insigni...
by nedsaid
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid the retirement danger zone
Replies: 12
Views: 2648

Re: Avoid the retirement danger zone

Yes, yes. The old sequence of returns problem. Prudential Insurance has a similar concept of the retirement danger zone called the retirement red zone. I don't, however, want to buy an expensive annuity to solve the problem. I will have to give thought to what Kitces is recommending here. Nothing I ...
by nedsaid
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1904

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

Nedsaid to be clear there's no human judgment once the rules have been set. And note that YES computer algorithms are all about patient trading, not taking offers and hitting bids. That's how almost all "smart" trading is done these days with very little human judgments, just humans watch...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1904

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

In another thread, I opined about the "anti-factors", that is stock characteristics that detract from and not add to stock performance. I opined that the index funds practice a form of factor investing in that the "anti-factor" stocks tend not to show up in the indexes. What I am...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1904

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

Adding factors to your investment selection process actually leading to more concentration, not more diversification. Suppose my name was nedsaid and I like value stocks. So, I'll start by looking at 1/2 of the market. Then I decide I like smallcaps. So, I'll cut out 90% of the value stocks. Right ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1904

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

Nedsaid I find it somewhat amusing that I doubt any diehard would say that Vanguard small value fund is active yet it's basically no different than say DFA small value which you and others think of as active, or at least closer to active. Nedsaid: Hi Larry, I said that factor investing is in the co...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity customers vote with their dollars
Replies: 5
Views: 1209

Re: Fidelity customers vote with their dollars

Fidelity Contrafund has had great performance and a great long term performance. The fund is very large now and I wouldn't buy it because of the asset bloat. I have gotten the message myself and invest in the Fidelity Index funds.
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?
Replies: 36
Views: 4637

Re: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?

This is why I am not a stay the course at all costs investor. Sometimes the investment landscape changes and investors would be wise to take note of this. We have taken the 30 plus years of a bond bull market for granted. Interest rates always fall, don't they? They do until they don't. An Internati...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 2176

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

John Bogle is a very, very smart man. What you are seeing is a very fine mind that is willing to consider things that are outside of his box, that is consider things that are unconventional to him. He is very secure in who he is and isn't afraid to do what I call thinking aloud. He will put ideas ou...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 28
Views: 1904

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

I view factor investing as being in the middle of the continuum between active and passive investing. DFA factor investing (size, value, momentum) looks like passive investing with much lower turnover and costs coupled with the use of patient strategies. Larry Swedroe calls it a passive form of inve...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?
Replies: 36
Views: 4637

Re: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?

The media need headlines everyday to help sell their ephemeral products. A decade from now, all of this year's prices will have been forgotten, but there will still be superlatives in headlines. full of sound and fury Signifying nothing. William Shakespeare 1597 Hey, did Shakespeare write any inves...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 31
Views: 6225

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

I positioned my bond portfolio to do pretty well in a period of rising interest rates with half of it in the TSP G Fund...10 years ago. Needless to say, it's about time I was right. Seriously though, I'd just write down your predictions. Keep doing that for a couple of years. Go back and look at th...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA - Bonds are on sale!
Replies: 5
Views: 1170

Re: PSA - Bonds are on sale!

I got a wicked-good deal on bonds the other day! Guess all the brokerages are still running a Black Friday sale or something... :D I can think of many dumber things that an investor can do is buy an asset class when its price is down! Really, this situation has been rebalancing Nirvana as stocks ha...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?
Replies: 36
Views: 4637

Re: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?

The media need headlines everyday to help sell their ephemeral products. A decade from now, all of this year's prices will have been forgotten, but there will still be superlatives in headlines. full of sound and fury Signifying nothing. William Shakespeare 1597 Hey, did Shakespeare write any inves...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just bought a lot of bonds today per my IPS--and felt very uneasy doing it
Replies: 23
Views: 2776

Re: Just bought a lot of bonds today per my IPS--and felt very uneasy doing it

I purchased just under $300k of VFIUX (intermediate term treasuries) today. It was very hard to click "submit". My plan was to DCA into a 50-50 portfolio this year, and I had 12/1 written down as a date to make some major fixed income purchases. I just know I am going to lose 10-15% of th...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 11053

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

To the distinguished ladies and gentlemen on this forum, there is room for spirited disagreement on this forum. The debate and the back and forth is how we all learn. On this topic, it really boils down to whether one believes the academic research or not. And even if you believe in the research, it...
by nedsaid
Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Adviser Advice-FormulaFolios
Replies: 23
Views: 2059

Re: Financial Adviser Advice-FormulaFolios

This advisor recommended I put all of the windfall 750k in a fixed annuity called Athene Performance Elite Plus. I like the idea of the Premium Bonus, good cap rates and surrender schedule not bad. So you see lots of decisions and appreciate so so much all your help. I was not present when wife met...
by nedsaid
Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 11053

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

I read through this thread again. I just could not help but laugh. My gosh, you would think that Paul Merriman is Godzilla rising out of the sea and destroying downtown Tokyo. He had nine portfolios. He practiced market timing. He is cherry picking his data. He is pompous. Man this guy just wreaks h...
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 11053

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

I'll come to the defense of Paul Merriman here. He is one of the "good guys" of the financial industry and I learned a lot from a couple of his financial seminars hosted by Tom Cock. I had a free consultation with one of his financial advisors and it was a productive conversation. The Merr...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Buffett's 90/10 Asset Allocation Sound?
Replies: 60
Views: 6759

Re: Is Buffett's 90/10 Asset Allocation Sound?

Bogleheads, Jack Bogle's advice in terms of "age in bonds" as a good starting point is excellent. Mr. Bogle has also noted that the bond allocation should increase over time. In my opinion, this is very sound advice. It is interesting that Mr. Bogle talks about Social Security as a bond. ...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TWHIX [American Century Heritage]
Replies: 4
Views: 501

Re: TWHIX

I actually own this fund, having purchased it in 1992. It has been an outstanding performer though not so much in the last few years. This is an aggressive growth mid-cap fund, pretty much pedal to the metal as the fund buys stocks with accelerating earnings and takes price momentum into account as ...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks over bought as of late?
Replies: 17
Views: 1596

Re: Are stocks over bought as of late?

Stocks are over bought It seems to me. What does it mean and what is expected if it the case. Is there more money being poured in to stocks right now? Hard to say if stocks are over bought or not. We have had a nice little rally here, I noticed that the US Total Stock Market is up just over 10% for...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your Asset Allocation before and after retirement?
Replies: 86
Views: 7396

Re: What was your Asset Aloocation before and after retirement?

The problem with your reasoning is that retirees don't make withdrawals every 30 years. They withdraw each year, perhaps monthly to pay bills. We have had two bear markets in recent memory where stocks went down 50% or more, 2000-2002 and 2008-2009. Do investment grade bonds drop by 50% during shor...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your Asset Allocation before and after retirement?
Replies: 86
Views: 7396

Re: What was your Asset Aloocation before and after retirement?

We don't know exactly how bonds will perform in the future but we know they are much less volatile than stocks Bonds are not always less volatile than stocks. Due to the mean-reverting nature of stocks, over 30 year timespans, stocks (S&P 500) are LESS VOLATILE than bonds (5-year treasuries). T...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do others mean by "Diversification Benefit" or Portfolio Efficiency?
Replies: 27
Views: 2186

Re: The "Larry Portfolio?"

Larry: What is the " Larry Portfolio? " All I could find is an article in Mint : Larry Swedroe’s insight was: what if we mix a little of this very risky (but intelligently risky) stock portfolio with a lot of very safe bonds? Say, 30% small value stocks and 70% bonds? The result is the La...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Buffett's 90/10 Asset Allocation Sound?
Replies: 60
Views: 6759

Re: Is Buffett's 90/10 Asset Allocation Sound?

Going below 60/40 would seem to be foolish as failure rate actually increases! Some of the "DFA advisors" say the same thing. This does seem to turn conventional wisdom on its head doesn't it? I still say that it is good for investors to err on the side of conservatism as I have seen stud...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your Asset Allocation before and after retirement?
Replies: 86
Views: 7396

Re: What was your Asset Aloocation before and after retirement?

I would recommend seeing the lady with the crystal ball and "future test" your portfolio and see if it will hold up. :D Being a little smart alecky here, but the basic point is that markets have no obligation to repeat past history. Bear markets happen in Canada as they do in the United S...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Setting stop loss orders on mutual funds
Replies: 11
Views: 850

Re: Setting stop loss orders on mutual funds

I have been able to set stop loss orders on stocks and etfs before But I have not found a way to do that on mutual funds. Without them I set alerts on the mutual funds when they hit the thresholds Is there a way to set a stop loss order on mutual funds? I do most of my trading on fidelity Markets a...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the 80's when CD rates were 17%?
Replies: 74
Views: 6584

Re: Investing in the 80's when CD rates were 17%?

Ahem. Anybody remember what mortgage rates were at the time? Seems to me my first mortgage was at 9.75%. Maybe 9.5. That was with 20% down and 30 year term. Made purchasing a house pretty difficult. We bought our family home in 1981, and we're thrilled to be able to assume the seller's mortgage at ...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Questions/Advice
Replies: 2
Views: 242

Re: Portfolio Questions/Advice

A Target Date Retirement fund from Vanguard is an excellent choice for a Roth IRA. As far as using this fund for a taxable investment, consult Vanguard as to the actual capital gains and dividend distributions from their Target Date Retirement Funds. My thought is that you will get capital gains dis...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the 80's when CD rates were 17%?
Replies: 74
Views: 6584

Re: Investing in the 80's when CD rates were 17%?

I was still in college and didn't start my career until September of 1983 but I do remember all of this. One of my first purchases where the EE Savings Bonds which had a guarantee of 6%. I have been cashing in this bonds the last couple of years as they have been maturing. They were paying 4% when t...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rotate out of bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 3049

Re: Rotate out of bonds?

Thanks. For those in a similar AA (60/40, equities to bonds), what do you consider to be an acceptable annual return, including dividends? I was in the highest tax bracket for years, 10 – 15% starting this year, will likely rise again down the road with RMDs. Currently looking into traditional IRA ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do others mean by "Diversification Benefit" or Portfolio Efficiency?
Replies: 27
Views: 2186

Re: What do others mean by "Diversification Benefit" or Portfolio Efficiency?

The old fashioned definition of diversification as not putting all your eggs in one basket sounds pretty good to me. That is not good enough for some people, they want great returns with less volatility, indeed that is the Holy Grail of investing. Being able to draw a straight line with a minimum of...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Bonds Are Enraging Me
Replies: 43
Views: 5200

Re: My Bonds Are Enraging Me

I make it a policy to take posters seriously unless there is abundant evidence otherwise. It sounds like a fellow who recently plunked down some money into investments who is inexperienced in the markets. I don't get the sense that we are being trolled. A lot of folks view consumer staples as a defe...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?
Replies: 24
Views: 3292

Re: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?

Just keep in mind that Value can go through some pretty long droughts. For example, the 1990's were a large growth decade. I remember all the articles criticizing Warren Buffett as Value seemed completely out of date. Value did poorly in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, in part because many financia...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Bonds Are Enraging Me
Replies: 43
Views: 5200

Re: My Bonds Are Enraging Me

Today was my second full day in the market. While I'm happy to see returns of $974.24 on my VFIAX and $881.93 on my VEXAX, my total bond fund (VBTLX) has lost me $138.06. This enrages me! Should I switch to consumer staples (VDC) as a bond substitute??? You are learning a valuable lesson. Anything,...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your Asset Allocation before and after retirement?
Replies: 86
Views: 7396

Re: What was your Asset Aloocation before and after retirement?

With all due respect, are you managing your parent's portfolio for their benefit or yours? Absolutely there's. They are aware of the risks and benefits of this approach and made the choice themselves. If you keep below a 5% withdrawal rate, stocks do fine historically. In fact, withdrawal rate is m...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sold my business Advice regarding Investment
Replies: 3
Views: 655

Re: Sold my business Advice regarding Investment

I sold my business and after taxes I have 1.5 Million dollars. I am 56 years old and plan to work 5 more years. I am looking for safe investments which can give me 2-3 % return . I prefer to avoid stocks since I need this money for my retirement income Thanks Kris If you are really, really risk ave...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?
Replies: 24
Views: 3292

Re: I'm A Lapsed Indexer. Is Value Investing Better?

Just keep in mind that Value can go through some pretty long droughts. For example, the 1990's were a large growth decade. I remember all the articles criticizing Warren Buffett as Value seemed completely out of date. Value did poorly in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, in part because many financial...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3539

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

A third thing that has smashed my deflation scenario is the fact that Black Friday was an absolute blowout. Amazon.com had a great day. The sound of cash registers ringing like crazy are not the sounds of deflation. Inflation hawk that I am, my eyes are peeled for the first signs of inflation which ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rotate out of bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 3049

Re: Rotate out of bonds?

There are three things that I thought of that might help you. First, if you don't need the income from your bonds, why not just reinvest the dividends? Over time, this should actually boost your returns. Second, it is too early to tell whether or not interest rates are truly going up. Three weeks of...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3539

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

The bond market seems to be signaling an uptick in inflation. I am less concerned about deflation today than I was three weeks ago. I have no plans to change my TIPS fund holdings. My credo is "nobody knows nothing" http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/457097-nobody-knows-anything-not-one-pers...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's good when the market makes new highs!
Replies: 6
Views: 1661

Re: It's good when the market makes new highs!

New highs in the market are the whole reason we all invest, we want our money to grow. Another thing to keep in mind is that stocks always look expensive during bull markets. Unless we get to a mania where valuations get way, way above historical ranges, the best thing to do is just stay invested. W...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rotate out of bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 3049

Re: Rotate out of bonds?

You have a fine portfolio now. I believe that a 60% stocks and 40% bond allocation is a very good one and appropriate for most investors. You did not miss the recent rally in the stock market as you had 60% in stocks. In your taxable accounts, going to cash would generate a tax event as well as a pr...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Allocation Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 802

Re: Portfolio Allocation Advice

I am thinking of keeping the Total US and International funds in my taxable account, and eventually using the Roth for just my bond fund(s) when I start adding those. Would this be a wise action? Very Wise :happy Two reasons. First is the favorable capital gains tax treatment for long term capital ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 25, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3539

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

The bond market seems to be signaling an uptick in inflation. I am less concerned about deflation today than I was three weeks ago. I have no plans to change my TIPS fund holdings.

Go to advanced search