Search found 5385 matches

by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification! A must read article
Replies: 4
Views: 432

Re: Diversification! A must read article

It is a very good article. Enjoyed it very much. I could just imagine Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof singing a song about diversification. Like tradition, it is very important. Just that the lyrics would flow as smoothly.
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 9
Views: 516

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

My questions are: 1) has globalization affected inflation by moving salarys to low cost areas? Nedsaid: There are very smart people who say that China is in trouble. Too much capacity and making too much stuff for the world markets to absorb. On top of that, there is a lot of debt to service and a ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 1890

Re: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor

Simplegift wrote: IN SUM: To invest in stocks is to wager on the continued success and resiliency of global capitalism. Investors in the U.S. market have historically been rewarded with some of the highest, most consistent stock returns in the world (no future guarantees). However, for the buy-hold...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 9
Views: 516

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

As Donald Rumsfeld would say, "You go to war with the Army you have." In the same way, you will go into retirement with the portfolio you have at the time. We do everything to prepare, but guess what, it won't be perfect. You won't have the right asset allocation, you won't have a big enou...
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My experience with "older" used car
Replies: 39
Views: 2346

Re: My experience with "older" used car

With older cars you need to be willing to have work done on them maybe 2 to 3 times a year. What you don't want is when everything gives out at once. There does get to be a point at which it gets hard to get parts and that is another factor. Do all the routine stuff like oil changes, etc.
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's home
Replies: 16
Views: 2784

Re: John Bogle's home

I think Mr. Bogle still rides the subways or he did a few years ago.
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP 500: active or passive?
Replies: 11
Views: 640

Re: SP 500: active or passive?

This is a semantic argument. You could say the S&P 500 is "managed" as there is a selection committee and the make-up of the index is reviewed from time to time. A few stocks are added each year as others drop out. The turnover for the Vanguard S&P 500 Index is a whopping 3% compar...
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit work and become SAHM - advice? regrets?
Replies: 10
Views: 1546

Re: Quit work and become SAHM - advice? regrets?

Two things you no longer have to pay for as a stay at home mother are day care and commuting expenses. Day care can be quite expensive.
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 37
Views: 2016

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

My point above is that if you take time to educate yourself beforehand, your time with the financial planner will be much more productive. He won't have to educate you on the basics. Your questions will be more focused and you will learn more from your planner. It also helps build the B.S. detector....
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 37
Views: 2016

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

Have you read the Boglehead books yet? There is one on investing and one on retirement. Jane Bryant Quinn is a great personal finance author and check out her stuff.
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canada vacation
Replies: 14
Views: 1258

Re: Canada vacation

Is it a good idea to take some of the Gray line Montreal bus tours? Tours: A Day in Quebec city and Montmorency falls $87 12 hours Heart of Montreal motorcoach city tour $43 3.5 hours ... http://www.grayline.com/things-to-do/canada/montreal/ Gray Line is a good company for day tours. I have done th...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% In REITS?
Replies: 34
Views: 2409

Re: 20% In REITS?

David Swensen, the very successful Chief Investment Officer at Yale University, in his classical "Unconventional Success" recommends a portfolio that holds 20% REIT. A lot has changed since his book came out in 2005. What does he recommend now? Dunno but as said many times before, as of a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 31
Views: 1503

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

Simplegift wrote: The original Fama-French paper on the value effect covered the high-inflation decades of the 60s, 70s and 80s (specifically, 1963-1990), and consequently showed a very robust value premium. Since then, inflation and interest rates have been in a long decline (chart below) — just t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% In REITS?
Replies: 34
Views: 2409

Re: 20% In REITS?

Erwin wrote:David Swensen, the very successful Chief Investment Officer at Yale University, in his classical "Unconventional Success" recommends a portfolio that holds 20% REIT.


A lot has changed since his book came out in 2005. What does he recommend now?
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 115
Views: 7529

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

I'll never forget how it seemed like every morning waking up to hear about another large financial institution going under or about to: Lehman Brothers, Wachovia, National City, AIG, Citibank, Countrywide. Many of them were old enough to survive the Great Depression but couldn't survive the Great R...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique
Replies: 14
Views: 807

Re: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique

I have been fortunate to be able to pay minimal rent by living at home, everything else is either invested or used for travel. Definitely try to balance both. All I can say is that age 26 doesn't seem so long ago and I am now 57 years old. 31 years went by and my gosh I wonder at how fast it went. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETFs vs. Variable Annuities
Replies: 14
Views: 703

Re: ETFs vs. Variable Annuities

Itstoomuch, there is nothing wrong with salesmen. I know what a sales presentation is and many jobs have some aspect of sales to them. Even the window attendant at the hamburger joint is trying to upsell you. If it weren't for salesmen the economy would pretty much grind to a halt. What I was warnin...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: King Solomon was the original Boglehead - historically speaking
Replies: 28
Views: 1641

Re: King Solomon was the original Boglehead - historically speaking

This is pretty good. King Solomon argued for broad diversification and that there is no sure thing. Sound advice.

I can't help but saying that being a King offers advantages to wealth building that most of us don't have. :D

A nice post, welcome to Bogleheads. Keep posting.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique
Replies: 14
Views: 807

Re: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique

If you are making $50-$60K a year, my recommendation would be to try for a 15% savings target for your retirement which would be $7,500 to $9,000 a year. It would be nice to max your $18K 401k contributions and $5.5K for your Roth IRA but frugal as I am have never been able to do that. My gosh, you...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique
Replies: 14
Views: 807

Re: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique

Are you making the $18k/yr maximum employee contribution to your 401k? How much are you contributing annually? Is there also an employer match, if so how much? Are you making the $5.5k/yr maximum contribution to your Roth IRA? How much are you contributing annually? If you are making $50-$60K a yea...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]
Replies: 19
Views: 983

Re: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]

In that case, Wellington would be even better as it takes less risk on the bond side. An average duration of 7.1 years which is somewhat more than my Intermediate Term Bond funds which are 5-6 and my favorite GNMA fund which is about 3. So less risk than Long Term Treasuries but more risk than most...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETFs vs. Variable Annuities
Replies: 14
Views: 703

Re: ETFs vs. Variable Annuities

I have a friend who is a financial planner for Ameriprise (not my FP, just a friend). Of course, he is paid commissions on the products he sells, and so he never recommends the types of investments we Bogleheads would favor. Nedsaid: Whoop, whoop, whoop. Danger, danger, danger. Incoming sales pitch...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique
Replies: 14
Views: 807

Re: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique

Are you making the $18k/yr maximum employee contribution to your 401k? How much are you contributing annually? Is there also an employer match, if so how much? Are you making the $5.5k/yr maximum contribution to your Roth IRA? How much are you contributing annually? If you are making $50-$60K a yea...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* Rekenthaler: Mind Games Investors Lose
Replies: 7
Views: 967

Re: M* Rekenthaler: Mind Games Investors Lose

@cfs & nedsaid, when I read the bit that you quoted this morning, my immediate thought was "They present absolutely no evidence for these statements and it appears to be a more off-the-cuff remark that makes sense, but is not really true." It reminded me of that remark about dead acco...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]
Replies: 19
Views: 983

Re: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]

What are your thoughts on this 2 fund portfolio? For those not familiar it is sp500 and long term treasuries. The 2 have a negative correlation. As a portfolio they've produced 9% returns with only a 20% draw down going back to 1972. I believe the Vanguard Wellington fund is largely based on these ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Junk Bonds
Replies: 39
Views: 2767

Re: High Yield Junk Bonds

Bogleheads, What are your thoughts on the high yield bond funds? More yield which means more risk. Many years ago I had a family member that invested in them that believed the dividends were everything but never rally discussed or considered the risk on NAV (especially during market stress). They e...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]
Replies: 19
Views: 983

Re: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]

What are your thoughts on this 2 fund portfolio? For those not familiar it is sp500 and long term treasuries. The 2 have a negative correlation. As a portfolio they've produced 9% returns with only a 20% draw down going back to 1972. I believe the Vanguard Wellington fund is largely based on these ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 115
Views: 7529

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

Regret was a big feeling that I experienced. I let my portfolio run up to 72% stocks and 28% bonds and was feeling pretty frisky in 2007. I realized that I had missed an opportunity to rebalance my portfolio, so I had to just ride through the 2008-2009 bear market with a more stock heavy portfolio. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* Rekenthaler: Mind Games Investors Lose
Replies: 7
Views: 967

Re: M* Rekenthaler: Mind Games Investors Lose

Now hear this, now hear this . . . If you fire the manager within your portfolio who's done poorly the past two or three years and then hire the top-quartile manager who's done well during that time, you get a much worse outcome than if you just randomly select the managers out of the Morningstar d...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% In REITS?
Replies: 34
Views: 2409

Re: 20% In REITS?

With the recent run up I am at almost exactly 20% REITs. I was already REIT heavy before, but now even more so. I remember in 2012 when I first bought into them people were saying the same thing (i.e. now is not the the best time, they are probably overvalued, etc.) The whole point of stocks is to ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 24, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% In REITS?
Replies: 34
Views: 2409

Re: 20% In REITS?

Engineer250 wrote:
nedsaid wrote:I have in recent months trimmed about 20% from my REITs. Not giving up on them but doing some prudent rebalancing. Take a look at International Real Estate. I sure would not rush into domestic REITs at this time.


Sounds like market timing :D


No, just rebalancing.
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: single premium deffered annuities- traditional tax deferred or ROTH
Replies: 11
Views: 808

Re: single premium deffered annuities- traditional tax deferred or ROTH

Not a bad idea. Check out Vanguard as they offer annuity products. You will get an idea on price and interest rates. You could also do this with a bond fund or with FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposit at your local bank. This is something that I am thinking about myself. Let's see if some annuity a...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique
Replies: 14
Views: 807

Re: Portfolio Improvements? 26 year old looking for critique

Hello, I am a 26 year old professional making around the 50k-60k range. I am hoping to get some critique and advice on my portfolio. Nedsaid: Great job. I wish I made that when I was 26. I have my emergency fund filled and around 10k sitting in my checking account. No debt. Nedsaid: Work up to six ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds at an historic high; time to get out?
Replies: 37
Views: 3183

Re: Bonds at an historic high; time to get out?

I am 68, semi-retired, and have 60% of my savings in bonds and bond funds. Since safety of principal is of primary importance I am staying away from all but short to intermediate term treasuries and high investment grade US corporates. However, as interest rates continue to fall and bond prices con...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% In REITS?
Replies: 34
Views: 2409

Re: 20% In REITS?

Is 20% of your stock portfolio to much to have in REITS? I am trying to figure out what the sweet spot/percentage is to allocate of your stock portion to REITS. This is if you solely hold the Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market Index and no international. You are late to the party. REITs have done fan...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Well Balanced Portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1258

Re: A Well Balanced Portfolio?

Since you have a 70/30 portfolio, your Equity allocation should cover you for inflation, so I don't see a need for TIPS. The reason that I own TIPS is for unexpected inflation. A burst of inflation can be bad for both stocks and bonds. I think of the stagflation of the 1970's, stocks gave you the i...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund performance and fund size
Replies: 9
Views: 747

Re: Mutual fund performance and fund size

We saw this with Peter Lynch's Fidelity Magellan fund. Its assets under management just grew and grew and his outperformance over the S&P 500 shrank and shrank. He got out just in time. My suspicion that this was a big factor in Bill Miller's downfall as well.
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension buyout, take lump sum?
Replies: 2
Views: 559

Re: Pension buyout, take lump sum?

A couple of things to consider in making this decision. First, how healthy is your company pension? If there are doubts about this, then I would consider the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation limits. I am pretty certain you age 65 payout is within the limits. If the company pension plan is shaky,...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Well Balanced Portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1258

Re: A Well Balanced Portfolio?

Since you have a 70/30 portfolio, your Equity allocation should cover you for inflation, so I don't see a need for TIPS. The reason that I own TIPS is for unexpected inflation. A burst of inflation can be bad for both stocks and bonds. I think of the stagflation of the 1970's, stocks gave you the i...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT , bubble and timing the market
Replies: 11
Views: 1579

Re: REIT , bubble and timing the market

I have been trimming my REITs, altogether about 20% have been sold and the proceeds put into other asset classes. I am not giving up on them but I won't buy any more. They keep going up and I may trim even more in the future.
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 115
Views: 7529

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

I remember the sense of unease (and maybe a little bit envy) when several friends' wives took up "day trading" by computer in the years before the crisis, and hearing about their sophisticated systems and the money they made. After the crisis, all this talk suddenly disappeared. The crisi...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?
Replies: 29
Views: 1802

Re: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?

No, "buy low, sell high" is not the same as market timing, because you do not need to do any market timing in order to buy low, sell high. I would argue that market timing systems all have signals which tell you when to sell. Valuation could indeed be a signal. There are a lot of blurry l...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 67
Views: 4257

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

Few thoughts First our experience was that despite all the education and handholding we provide we estimated that only about 2/3 of clients rebalanced when it was recommended. So about 1/3 did not> Now I still felt good because almost all the remaining 1/3 only committed the minor "crime"...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 115
Views: 7529

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

You can argue forever about how much risk there really was. The problem is that far out of the normal that it doesn't fit the normal risk model of alert, sober truck driver behavior. Therefore you suspect that the model no longer applies and that the risk was probably greater than indicated by the ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?
Replies: 29
Views: 1802

Re: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?

I have an inclination towards buying things cheap when possible. For example, over the past several years I bought several rental properties at the Sheriff's sale for about 60 cents on the dollar. I also sold some properties in 2006 when they were obviously substantially overpriced relative to the ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 19
Views: 2384

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

In an interview in Barron's, Gus Sauter said, "A lot of people assume that market returns are driven by economic growth. But that's not really the case. A better predictor is valuation, or price-to-earnings ratios." http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB500014240531119044140045780203401466871...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 19
Views: 2384

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

I'm not sure what the rationale is for paralleling the economy rather than paralleling the market. The rationale I think is pretty simple. We use the financial markets as a proxy for the economy when we invest and overweighting small caps and REITs to better mirror the economy makes some sense. It ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Crazy to hold (BNDX) International Bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2119

Re: Crazy to hold (BNDX) International Bonds?

Many target date retirement funds include international bonds. I suppose a cynic would say it is due to making money rather than research....but Vanguard, Fidelity, JP Morgan, American Funds, etc. do it. I'm not a cynic, and I believe at least in Vanguard's case they do think it is the way to go. I...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?
Replies: 32
Views: 3140

Re: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?

We need a productive economy prosperous enough to pay for all of this. It is a problem that can't just be saved away. Exactly. Saving lots of money works best for a few, if most don't save much at all. There has to be a large labor force doing the heavy lifting for the relative few who are just spe...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not Wellesley?
Replies: 14
Views: 1603

Re: Why Not Wellesley?

I am looking to deploy the proceeds of the recent sale of an asset into our retirement portfolio. The proceeds have dropped my equity allocation from my target of 35% to 30%. I have used Portfolio Visualizer to back test the options that I have considered. The tickers are the investor shares to all...

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