Search found 6614 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How reliable are forward PE ratios?
Replies: 11
Views: 398

Re: How reliable are forward PE ratios?

With the US Stock Market at all-time new highs, it would be an excellent time to rebalance. Other than that, I would not take action as we are not seeing valuation or sentiment extremes. As to your point that forward P/E ratios are inexact, all of this stuff is imprecise and inexact. The numbers do ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How reliable are forward PE ratios?
Replies: 11
Views: 398

Re: How reliable are forward PE ratios?

How would you use forward p/e ratios? What difference would it make to you if they were more or less reliable? You can get a sense of where we are compared to market history. Forward P/E's got to be about 32 just before the 2000-2002 bear market and they are about 19 today. P/E's based on actual ea...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UITs provide good test of stock selection skills
Replies: 1
Views: 135

Re: UITs provide good test of stock selection skills

I always thought that Unit Investment Trusts were just another Wall Street gimmick. I have never had any interest in them. Perhaps buying a closed-end mutual fund would be a better idea but it has been years since I have owned one. An exchange traded fund is a much better vehicle for investors than ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How reliable are forward PE ratios?
Replies: 11
Views: 398

Re: How reliable are forward PE ratios?

Forward P/E's are not perfect but analysts estimates of future earnings are what we have. I look at them because the market looks forward and not back. Earnings estimates tend to be too optimistic.
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate "Fair" Returns
Replies: 1
Views: 320

Re: Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate "Fair" Returns

You should expect a 3% real return on long term bonds over long periods of time. As far as P/E ratios, remember that markets look forward and not backwards. Thus I look at forward P/E's based upon estimated future earnings. Right now, that is about 19 for the US Stock Market. Remember that US Accoun...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tips for handling uncertainty by Bill McNabb
Replies: 2
Views: 478

Re: Tips for handling uncertainty by Bill McNabb

How do I handle uncertainty? Well, probably not very well sometimes. How about that for an admission? The stock market crash of October 1987 was pretty unnerving and even more so when even the ever cool Louis Rukeyser looked shaken. The 2000/2002 bear market hurt emotionally but I was in my early fo...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting Critique of My Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 639

Re: Requesting Critique of My Portfolio

You asked a second question about the level of risk in International investing. You asked if a 20% allocation would be riskier than a 50% allocation. Great question. Currency risk is a big factor in International stock returns. A strong US Dollar vs. other currencies tends to be headwinds for Intern...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting Critique of My Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 639

Re: Requesting Critique of My Portfolio

Nedsaid: I would recommend 20% to 50% of your stocks in international. International bonds are entirely optional in my opinion. Why? Is the reasoning for further diversification, to avoid significant losses if domestic stocks took a huge hit? Would you consider 20% to be riskier, and 50% to be more...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we wait before buying in?
Replies: 40
Views: 3394

Re: Should we wait before buying in?

We have nearly transferred all of our retirement funds to Vanguard, about $600K. Currently everything (but one stock) is in a Vanguard money market fund, prior to being invested per the plan Vanguard created for us a few months ago. I still think the plan is good, but I am concerned that are buying...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what to do with old 401k, 403(b), 457(b)
Replies: 5
Views: 362

Re: what to do with old 401k, 403(b), 457(b)

I have a couple of workplace savings plans at Fidelity and I have been very satisfied. One of them has a brokerage window and I have been very satisfied with the choices available to me. You have some excellent index fund choices at Fidelity. If your old 401k, 403b, and 457(b) accounts have limited ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4230

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

Larry's article is a good antidote for the yield chasing that investors have been engaged in since late 2008. Anything resembling yield has been chased and chased hard. Even if you like dividend paying stocks, this isn't the best time to be pursuing such a strategy. Very low interest rates have not ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 34
Views: 1242

Re: Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is not useless. It is sort of like an autopsy to determine why things happened in the past. You get some limited insight into what makes markets work but the predictive power of Technical Analysis is not impressive. But realistically, isn't that description true for almost any an...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 109
Views: 6313

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

We all think we have more sales resistance than we really do. Speak for yourself. I hope you enjoy your new timeshare! I own two of them, both purchased on the resale market, and have zero regrets. The difference between you and most timeshare owners is that you were a buyer and not a sellee. Purch...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting Critique of My Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 639

Re: Requesting Critique of My Portfolio

Hi everyone. I’ve been reading through posts on the Bogleheads forum for a while now. I’m continually impressed with the advice, support, and civility of this group. I’m hoping this post will help me take action on several points of indecision / uncertainty I’ve had over the past year. Nedsaid: Wel...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 109
Views: 6313

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

We all think we have more sales resistance than we really do. Speak for yourself. I hope you enjoy your new timeshare! Haha! Great response, Nedsaid. I'm with np81 on this and still disagree with you but that's what makes the world great. We're not all the same in every regard. You can call it over...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 109
Views: 6313

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

np81 wrote:
nedsaid wrote:We all think we have more sales resistance than we really do.

Speak for yourself.


I hope you enjoy your new timeshare!
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 34
Views: 1242

Re: Technical Analysis

Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser had a panel of technical analysts that he called the "elves." Week by week, the elves were bearish when they should have been bullish and bullish when they should have been bearish. These were supposedly some of the best technical analysts on Wall Stree...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: House as Temporary Pseudo-Proxy for Bonds
Replies: 37
Views: 1445

Re: House as Temporary Pseudo-Proxy for Bonds

Well, no. Houses are actually more volatile than people realize. If your neighbor neglects to mow his lawn for a few weeks, that will have a bad effect on your home value. You aren't aware of the volatility because you don't see the ticker symbol of your house broadcasted every day over CNBC or on t...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4230

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

I also don't understand the bias against investing for income. Isn't that a big reason that people buy bonds? It probably is a big reason in some cases, and one in which current investors have had the rug pulled out from under their feet. So much for the reliability of yield, in the case of bonds. ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 109
Views: 6313

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

I know very little about time shares, but see ads for them in Las Vegas. Are these good to attend for "free" tickets to shows and to buy or are they ripoffs? Just say no. Nisiprius has a great saying about stealing bait from a trap. Sooner or later you will find yourself buying a timeshar...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4230

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

A business owner will take a draw from his business so that he and his family have something to live on. Is it so irrational that someone who owns stock would desire a return of a part of the profit in the form of cash? I think not. As an owner, I would rather take cash than see my managers make a b...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4230

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

Oh oh, not another dividend thread. I guess the dead horse quivered a bit and it is time to beat it some more. I guess I can't help myself. Nisiprius really nailed it. Dividend investing through a buy and hold strategy with quality stocks made a lot of sense in the days of high commissions. I rememb...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 40
Views: 4208

Re: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads

A common quote that I see floating around here is Warren Buffett's famous "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful". Sounds like words of wisdom, but I just realized that is market timing. How do Bogleheads reconcile this? This is not actionable for most i...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1350

Re: "High conviction investing"

Just saw an Invesco commercial which was essentially a subtle attack against passive indexing. They are advocating "high conviction investing" and ask (paraphrasing): "why be happy with average returns?" Am I correct in assuming that "high conviction investing" is a th...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 104
Views: 6980

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

Sandtrap, you provided a very interesting story. This is why you keep your eyes and ears open. Booms that seem like they will go one forever and buying panics that set in when people fear that prices will zoom beyond their ability to pay only plant the seeds of the next bust.
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6357

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

Until a couple of months ago, I was 100% equities and had been since 1990 and went through every market downturn with no anxiety whatsoever. Now that I'm 5-7 years from retirement, I'm 90/10. In a couple of years, I may drop to 80/20 but not lower. I'm also not worried about my job, which I was in ...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 206
Views: 12503

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

This reminds me of the arguments I had with Rx4Investing, who hasn't posted here in a while. My main point is that the original poster is trying to make precise what is by nature imprecise. Earnings numbers reported by companies are not precise as they include accruals and the best judgment of manag...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6357

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

Until a couple of months ago, I was 100% equities and had been since 1990 and went through every market downturn with no anxiety whatsoever. Now that I'm 5-7 years from retirement, I'm 90/10. In a couple of years, I may drop to 80/20 but not lower. I'm also not worried about my job, which I was in ...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 104
Views: 6980

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

Interesting that you bring up the oil bust, the oil/energy sectors lousy earnings is still a big factor making P/E ratios high. The 2016 earnings for the S&P 500 Energy sector was negative. People weren't complaining about the high P/E ratio in 2008-2009 when the huge negative earnings from the...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 104
Views: 6980

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

I can't say just where we are but a continually strong market since November 8th and increasing optimism are starting to worry me a bit. Bull markets need a pool of people who are now pessimistic who might one day turn optimistic. In other words, bull markets end when you run out of buyers; at some ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own individual stocks?
Replies: 88
Views: 6251

Re: Why own individual stocks?

I would caution investors not to expect stock picking to beat the market, it is difficult enough for market professionals to do. My suspicion is that my individual stocks have just about matched market performance. I have owned individual stocks since 1988, I bought my first mutual fund in 1984. I h...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4691

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

It used to be a no brainer to load up on oil stocks when oil prices were low and wait for the rebound. Pretty much like predicting that the sun would rise tomorrow. My concern is that things have changed for the oil industry as perhaps they have happened for the coal industry. The horizontal drillin...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6357

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

I'm 48 and spouse is 52. I know that bonds reduce overall volatility. However, if I'm not concerned about a bumpy road during the next 10 years or so, why bother having any? If here's a global meltdown, 20% won't be enough to be meaningful. I am on board that within 5 years of retirement, I need to...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY 10TH BIRTHDAY BOGLEHEADS FORUM
Replies: 65
Views: 2768

Re: HAPPY 10TH BIRTHDAY BOGLEHEADS FORUM

This has been a great place to learn and a great place to interact with some really bright people. It has been a great experience for me. Happy Birthday Bogleheads and many more!!
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own individual stocks?
Replies: 88
Views: 6251

Re: Why own individual stocks?

I don't know, I hear all this stuff about gambling instinct and individual stocks and I just don't buy it. I bought individual stocks as long term holdings of businesses that I would like to own personally. Since I am not rich enough to buy the whole company, I just only buy a very small piece of it...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much do small speculators underperform by?
Replies: 8
Views: 744

Re: How much do small speculators underperform by?

Hard to know. I track my own performance on Quicken but I am a bit dubious that the numbers are calculated correctly. In any case, most individual investors probably don't have an accurate number for their own performance much less sharing that performance with the rest of the world. It would seem t...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund to be renamed.
Replies: 2
Views: 769

Re: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund to be renamed.

The following message was sitting in my Vanguard account inbox: On or about February 23, 2017, Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund will be renamed Vanguard Municipal Money Market Fund. The investment objective, limitations, and attributions of the fund will remain the same, including the 20% limi...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.
Replies: 22
Views: 1994

Re: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.

Active management sometimes actually does work but the problem is that what they charge for management fees can outweigh whatever outperformance they get. One trouble with these debates about active vs passive funds is that the discussion seems to revolve around performance and then of course devol...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Limited Partnership?
Replies: 13
Views: 855

Re: Investment in Limited Partnership?

I would be very cautious about limited partnerships. Why pour money into illiquid investments when good liquid alternatives are out there. There are Master Limited Partnerships that trade like stocks on the exchanges and they might be worth some consideration but they can be a tax nightmare, I would...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Market Fears
Replies: 55
Views: 5698

Re: Stock Market Fears

For many years now I have stayed the course, but lately I have begun to wonder if this is a wise plan. I recently read a post by a Boston economist who suggested moving everything to short-term Treasuries in anticipation of a market crash. My husband and I have considerable assets and right now are...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.
Replies: 22
Views: 1994

Re: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.

Active management sometimes actually does work but the problem is that what they charge for management fees can outweigh whatever outperformance they get. John Bogle once said that index funds work not because markets are efficient but because they are cheap. I have gotten this and over the last 10-...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation does not matter (may be)
Replies: 55
Views: 3693

Re: Valuation does not matter (may be)

txman While the monetary BASE has increased sharply, that isn't what's important, as will noted. It's the money SUPPLY that matters. And thus you have MB X MV = MS, so base times velocity. But V is way down as bank lending fell sharply. So MB has grown about historical rates, not much above 6%. Now...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 35
Views: 4117

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

Jfet, I think Samsung was once the largest holding of VWO. As I recall, Korea has graduated to the developed markets fund. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsAllHoldings?FundId=0964&FundIntExt=INT&tableName=Equity&tableIndex=0&sort=marketValue&sortOrder=desc zotty, I also wis...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with recent inheritance and investments
Replies: 29
Views: 1307

Re: Help with recent inheritance and investments

I think it is scandalous to force young people to finance their education with what amounts to be a mortgage, a burden that is there before a career is even started. I also believe that in many cases, college just costs too much, particularly in the day of the internet and modern technology which sh...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is working to improve service
Replies: 7
Views: 799

Re: Vanguard is working to improve service

Good organizations become aware of their problems and endeavor to solve them. I would say be patient with Vanguard and give them a chance to iron all of this out.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4746

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

I am aware that bonds can have negative real returns. That is the reason that I own TIPS. Another poster made the point that the risk is mitigated by owning Intermediate Term Investment Grade Bonds and reinvesting the interest or in the case of bond funds, reinvesting the dividends.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 5039

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

Toons wrote:Have owned Investment Company Of America,
Capital Income Builder ,
with American Funds for many years.
If I had to choose a load fund family it would be American. :happy


I own that very fund in my ROTH IRA and have been pleased with it.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 43
Views: 5234

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

I think Merriman has a sound approach, it is pretty much small/value tilting, adding REITs, and having a large allocation to International Stocks. My concern is similar to Garland's, pretty much the pizza is sliced into a lot of pieces and perhaps a simpler portfolio like the Coffeehouse portfolio ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?
Replies: 58
Views: 5804

Re: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?

100% stock is reasonable for a very young investor but that is assuming that young investors all have high risk tolerances. I started out as a very cautious investor, my IRA was in FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposit until a friend went into the brokerage business. I moved my account to him and it...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 19, 2017 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good time to buy bonds?
Replies: 8
Views: 1094

Re: Good time to buy bonds?

I have been buying bonds in here not because they are screaming values but because I have been rebalancing. Yields are up somewhat after November 8th but inflation seems to be ticking up a bit too. Not sure if they are better values than before, what really matters is yield after inflation.

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