Search found 6481 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypo: What would you do if you were SURE of impending deline in markets
Replies: 62
Views: 3498

Re: Hypo: What would you do if you were SURE of impending deline in markets

It is the old "right too early" problem. You might be 100% right but your timing might be wrong. It was clear in the late 1990's that something was wrong in the markets, euphoria and sky was the limit. The problem is that you cannot predict human emotion, in other words we don't know how l...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Charles Ellis has no bonds in his portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1545

Re: Charles Ellis has no bonds in his portfolio

Charles Ellis is a multi-millionaire, if the stock market drops 50%, he is still a multi-millionaire. He is in a far different financial position than most of us. Sort of like the "90% S&P 500 because Warren Buffett says so" threads. We have to invest for our own objectives taking into...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in International Bond Index
Replies: 5
Views: 475

Re: Investment in International Bond Index

The case for International Bonds, particularly when they are currency hedged, is a weak one. The best argument for International Bonds is that they are a very large asset class and should not be ignored by investors. The case for owning Vanguard International Bond Index can be made, but for me, it i...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Flexible Annuity Quandary
Replies: 4
Views: 386

Re: Flexible Annuity Quandary

It sounds to me like you want to Bogle-ize your portfolio and that you don't want or need any guarantees associated with the annuities. I do not recommend variable annuities to people, in most cases they are not a good deal for the small investor. The fees are most often high, the product is very co...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ML Accellerated and Leveraged Bank notes
Replies: 3
Views: 233

Re: ML Accellerated and Leveraged Bank notes

These are structured notes, not recommended around here.
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Flexible Annuity Quandary
Replies: 4
Views: 386

Re: Flexible Annuity Quandary

I've read so much lately that I am confusing myself. I hope some of you can help me decide what to do with an annuity I have with Ameriprise. In 1987 a very small employer started an IRA for me with IDS, now Ameriprise. I left the job in 1989. It is now in what's called an IRA but as a Riversource ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ameriprise Mistake-Need Advice on Vanguard Allocations and Planning
Replies: 7
Views: 422

Re: Ameriprise Mistake-Need Advice on Vanguard Allocations and Planning

My first reaction is that if the original poster is age 43 and worth $1.6 million, he has done some things right. It also struck my that he had variable life insurance, it seems many Ameriprise clients wind up with either a Variable Annuity or Variable Universal Life. The planner sure loves those Fr...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: international small cap value fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2020

Re: international small cap value fund

Nisiprius, you have discovered the same thing I did. In mutual fund speak, "small-cap" means "mid-cap". Even in "small-cap" indexes, you will see a lot of mid-caps there.
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VA: Axa Accumulator to keep or not?
Replies: 6
Views: 569

Re: VA: Axa Accumulator to keep or not?

Thanks again Nedsaid, yes your posts have all been so well written and thought through, I can tell that you put a lot of time in them. This board is very fortunate to have you and people like you who have been a wealth of valuable information. So much better than almost all the "financial advi...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Century decreasing stock allocations - Interesting article
Replies: 16
Views: 2022

Re: American Century decreasing stock allocations - Interesting article

My comments are that this should please those American Century customers who: ⋅ Think they can decode the political message implied in it, ⋅ Agree with it, and ⋅ Believe in adjusting their portfolio to reflect macroeconomic, political, and ideological predictions. Havi...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VA: Axa Accumulator to keep or not?
Replies: 6
Views: 569

Re: VA: Axa Accumulator to keep or not?

Nedsaid, thank you very much. I have read some of your other past posts on Variable Annuities and it has been very helpful as I try to figure out what to do with this one. Nedsaid: I worked really hard on some of those Variable Annuity posts and did my best to break them up into their component par...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

I too have struggled with this. I sold the Intermediate Term TIPS fund many years ago and in retrospect we were lucky. We consolidated with Total Bond and this has worked well and simplified our investment portfolio. I prefer the monthly cash flows from dividends. The TIPS fund was paying next to n...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 17, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VA: Axa Accumulator to keep or not?
Replies: 6
Views: 569

Re: VA: Axa Accumulator to keep or not?

Before answering the question about whether or not to keep, it would be helpful to know why the annuity was purchased in the first place? Death benefit? Principal guarantees? Future income guarantees? To me, the number one reason for buying one of these is for the income guarantees. My guess is that...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My co-worker boasting about his investments. What do you think about his selections?
Replies: 57
Views: 4520

Re: My co-worker boasting about his investments. What do you think about his selections?

Can't speak for anyone else, but I invest to meet my own objectives and to meet my own goals. I am not trying to keep up with the Joneses, the Bogleheads, Jim Cramer, or anyone else. I have done okay but I am not even retired yet, I have not acquired a Scrooge McDuck fortune. Not doing this for brag...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 17, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So, I'm going to gamble (for fun) and buy some individual stocks. Best way?
Replies: 65
Views: 3686

Re: So, I'm going to gamble (for fun) and buy some individual stocks. Best way?

If you are going to buy individual stocks, you need to take the exercise seriously. You aren't buying lottery tickets or putting money down on a horse, you are buying shares in real businesses. Give you the standard advice: diversify across industries, don't overpay for your stocks, buy quality comp...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Down Payment
Replies: 6
Views: 572

Re: Investing Down Payment

I would stick to short term investment grade bond funds, FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposits, shorter term treasuries, stuff like that. You really should not take much risk on monies you will need in maybe 3-4 years. You don't have a long enough time horizon for even preferred stocks.
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Fund - Retirement Years
Replies: 29
Views: 2586

Re: Target Date Fund - Retirement Years

Hello all, I've been trying to search prior posts but I haven't found anything that answers my questions just yet. From my reading, regarding TD funds, I've seen comments generally along the lines of "use a target date fund until you get closer to the end of your career - then consider doing X...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Sentiment: How do we measure
Replies: 5
Views: 377

Re: Market Sentiment: How do we measure

Two researchers, Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler, have constructed an investor sentiment index based on the six measures: trading volume as measured by NYSE turnover; the dividend premium (the difference between the average market-to-book ratio of dividend payers and non-payers); the closed-end f...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you manually do bookkeeping for all your investments by yourself?
Replies: 17
Views: 1855

Re: Do you manually do bookkeeping for all your investments by yourself?

I use Quicken.

In recent years, financial companies are required to keep track of tax basis. If you have investments you have held for many years, you might still have to refer to your old records.
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Sentiment: How do we measure
Replies: 5
Views: 377

Re: Market Sentiment: How do we measure

Someone asked me what I looked at to judge valuation and market sentiment. I neglected to talk about money flows, which was a great point brought up by the questioner. Below is my answer: As far as market sentiment, I just look at what is out there in the financial media. What I like to see is a lot...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Sentiment: How do we measure
Replies: 5
Views: 377

Market Sentiment: How do we measure

I often post about market sentiment and someone asked the question how I measured it. Pretty much the answer was that I looked at the tone of articles in the financial press and looked at forward P/E ratios. Pretty much eyeballing. I have posted that valuations are "stretched" but not irra...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is that gas / fume smell from furnace?
Replies: 15
Views: 796

Re: What is that gas / fume smell from furnace?

I would get this taken care of immediately. A family member's commercial building had a heating oil furnace explode. Didn't realize this could happen. Gas has a higher likelihood of this happening.
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Navigating (Potential) Closures"
Replies: 1
Views: 333

Re: "Navigating (Potential) Closures"

On ETFs, so far so good. I own six ETFs and they are iShares, SPDR, or Vanguard. They are large and well regarded enough ETFs that I should not have a problem. They are also held in a brokerage IRA so taxes won't be a problem in case one liquidates. I regard these as long term investments. Mutual fu...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5382

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

This article sounds too much like market timing and trying to play the cycles. One needs a long term strategy. On long-term treasury bonds, they are a good holding if you want or need a deflation hedge. I agree with the author that interest rates are likely to rise and thus make long bonds a poor in...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 5499

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

Given the response against long term bonds , now might be the time to buy them. For years I've read here that Lt bonds are not good because we are at historic lows in interest rates. I wonder how the 5 years returns compare. If you believe that we are more likely to experience deflation rather than...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio feedback/advice
Replies: 2
Views: 331

Re: Portfolio feedback/advice

I think the reason that you haven't gotten response is that most Bogleheads live in the United States and have little familiarity with European taxes and investments that are available to Europeans. Don't even know too much about European banking and such things as deposit insurance. My guess is tha...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liquidity risk/funding risk and are they rewarded
Replies: 13
Views: 794

Re: Liquidity risk/funding risk and are they rewarded

nedsaid The problem with that is you would need to own a fund that had ONLY patient and disciplined investors who don't panic in liquidity crisis, or be able to put up "gates" as hedge funds do There are funds like Bridgeway's Ultra small fund, which is 10th decile, but then in bear marke...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do when an IRA is no longer tax-deferred? (RMDs!)
Replies: 18
Views: 1971

Re: What to do when an IRA is no longer tax-deferred? (RMDs!)

I should have expressed myself more carefully, Watty. Yes, I do understand that my IRA is still a tax-deferred account. I was trying to account for the fact that my new yearly RMD (which I know will be a changing % of my previous year-end balance) will henceforth be added to my Adjusted Gross Incom...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Upgrade or just buy new? [Computer]
Replies: 44
Views: 2443

Re: Upgrade or just buy new?

Windows XP for those still running it is a disaster waiting to happen if you do stuff on the internet. Definitely, upgrade your operating system if your laptop can handle it.
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Euro and asian stocks
Replies: 12
Views: 986

Re: Euro and asian stocks

Were I an investor outside of the United States, I would probably use an all-World Stock index. If you used different index funds, I would go 40% to 50% US. All I can say is that relative performance of different stock markets is cyclical. Hard to say exactly why this happens, I suppose whole librar...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question of pension effect on asset allocation
Replies: 2
Views: 279

Re: Question of pension effect on asset allocation

As a rule of thumb, if you have a guaranteed pension on top of Social Security, you can afford to invest more aggressively than someone who does not have a pension. I can't quantify precisely how much more aggressive you could be, but you could use financial calculators to get an approximate answer....
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3310

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

Nisiprius said: He doesn't spell out what he means by "extended periods" or "extremely long" ... All of this stuff is a bit slippery. That is why it is hard to use precise language with investing. "Always" or "never" are almost out of my vocabulary when it co...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: General Investing - Lump sum
Replies: 3
Views: 266

Re: General Investing - Lump sum

First of all, if you have a family, your emergency fund cannot be too large. The larger the family, the more moving parts, and the more that can go wrong. For most people, 6 months of living expenses in a liquid emergency fund is sufficient, particularly if employment is stable. I advise people to i...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liquidity risk/funding risk and are they rewarded
Replies: 13
Views: 794

Re: Liquidity risk/funding risk and are they rewarded

If you wanted to capitalize from the illiquidity premium, I suppose an investor could pick a lower cost, lower turnover Micro-Cap fund which uses very patient trading strategies. Problem is, these are hard to find. I know DFA closed theirs, don't know if it is still closed.
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 5499

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

I just stick with the Total Bond Market Index and hope for the best. So far it has done what it is supposed to do for me. Also, Vanguard still has faith in this fund because it is used in all their Target Date Funds, Lifestyle Funds and the Balanced Index mimics it. John Bogle has often said the av...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise
Replies: 40
Views: 1438

Re: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise

The sad fact is that if you want personalized attention, you have to pay for it. Financial advisors have to eat too. Keep in mind that when you pay a commission, the advisor has to pay for the ticket charge, or what the company keeps from the commission. All those layers of fees pay for all those la...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8750

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

The referenced video was made in early 2011. He was a tad early in his predictions about rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve gradually unwinds its interest rate repression, as Malkiel call it. I have concerns about bonds as well. Going from memory here, but it seems that bonds lost about 5...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise
Replies: 40
Views: 1438

Re: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise

I am new to this forum, and I am looking for some help. I've looked all over the internet, but I haven't had much luck finding information on my dilemma. I am 28 y/o, and I have done a pretty decent job of saving for retirement. I initially set up a traditional IRA through Ameriprise, but I stopped...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials are falling behind their boomer parents"
Replies: 24
Views: 1700

Re: "Millennials are falling behind their boomer parents"

Let's not turn this thread into bashing on millenials. Every generation has weak and strong points. My favorite part is when people complain about us being the participation trophy generation. Who gave us those trophies? It is my strong opinion that boomer parents enjoyed seeing our shelves full of...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 167
Views: 14972

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

I guess I'm not paranoid after all, since the market is out to get me. Is 25-30% the new 10-15%? If so, rather than being well prepared for retirement, I might only be tolerably prepared. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2017/01/09/millennials-may-need-to-double-how-much-they-save-f...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stephen Ambrose Tours
Replies: 2
Views: 345

Re: Stephen Ambrose Tours

Check out sights such as Trip Advisors and see what actual customers say about the tours. Keep in mind you have the chronic complainers who will say everything was awful. If you read 50 reviews, just ignore the bottom 2 or 3 comments. Look at the entirety of what the reviewers are saying. For a 2012...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How CRSP index change affects Vanguard funds" (Jan 2017)
Replies: 2
Views: 622

Re: "How CRSP index change affects Vanguard funds" (Jan 2017)

Front running of the indexes by traders is a well known phenomenon. This will help to alleviate that.
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Things You Can’t Learn From a Backtest"
Replies: 3
Views: 754

Re: "10 Things You Can’t Learn From a Backtest"

This is a good article. I particularly liked this excerpt. It eloquently describes the "Nedsaid effect" that I have complained about so often. Murphy’s law of investing says that everything you buy will immediately fall, everything you sell will immediately rise and every new strategy you ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 5499

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

I'm a bit confused. Bond funds that have lost value owing to a higher interest rate will still generate the same returns as before. The only losses I see - perhaps I am missing something? - is if I sell the bonds, i.e. generating a loss in the principal. Newer bonds will have a higher interest rate...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8750

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

We also are talking about real (inflation adjusted) rates of return. If you looked at bond returns from 1946-1982, they probably don't look so bad. What is horrible is when you factor in the ravages of inflation. A whole of inflation was going on during that time period. You had rising inflation an...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 5499

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

Okay, okay! Time to fight fire with fire. Nedsaid hereby recommends that everyone put 100% of your bond holdings into the longest duration treasury bond fund that you can find. Maybe we can get those interest rates to rise after all. :wink: :wink: :wink: (I am joking by the way). I would like to see...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 5499

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

Jack Bogle was on CNBC today. He said that his bond allocation was about fifty-fifty short-term to intermediate term because long-term bond prices are just too volatile for him. I didn't hear him mention what his bond-to-equity allocation was. Oh no!!! You know what this means. If people follow Bog...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8750

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

Maybe I'm missing a fundamental point, but... It's not clear to me why one would expect TIPS to hold up after a significant crash. I can't see the average investor thinking, "Hmmm, I really need some/more inflation protection, now that global stock markets have crashed." I don't think the...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2049

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds

nedsaid, Isn't everything overvalued due to low interest rates? Are consumer staples more, less, or about the same overvalue as the market? Is there a Shiller P/E for consumer staples? Might be interesting to find out. TJSI Cash flows become more valuable as interest rates drop. If you have a bond ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3310

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

Nedsaid I would only recommend it when at extremes and also be willing to live with it forever, as once get out very difficult to decide when to get back in. Nedsaid: I don't have the "all-in or all-out" approach to investing. I want to hold all the asset classes I want to be in for the l...

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