Search found 4629 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disappointed in International Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 3334

Re: Disappointed in International Funds

Now that I am thinking about it, I am very disappointed in the recent performance of my domestic funds. Who will volunteer to sell their domestic stock funds so that mine can go up? Actually, I am disappointed in about everything except my bonds which have done well recently. But markets are like th...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

I have decided on my trip. I will do a Berlin, Krakow, and Warsaw trip. 4 nights in Berlin, 5 nights in Krakow, and 3 nights in Warsaw. I will be taking the train between Berlin and Krakow and between Krakow and Warsaw. I watched the Rick Steves video on Poland and that pretty much made up my mind. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long-term health care insurance and planning for retirement medical expenses
Replies: 2
Views: 341

Re: Long-term health care insurance and planning for retirement medical expenses

From what I have observed over the years, it will pay off to keep on good terms with family members. At some point, you will probably need some help from them. It used to be that the extended family took care of all of this and I think we should return to that model. I am all in favor of doing every...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling in Retirement
Replies: 57
Views: 4123

Re: Traveling in Retirement

Not sure how to pose this without coming off somewhat badly... A commonly stated goal for retirement is to spend time traveling. If you hope to enjoy traveling later as a hobby, why not make time for it now? Who knows if we'll make it to retirement anyway? Nedsaid: This is an excellent point. I mad...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 70
Views: 5059

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

The point of having a stock picker post his picks is that it eliminates the selective memory which afflicts many stock pickers. There is always lots of talk that sounds smart but you never get to see how it works out when the rubber hits the road. Yes, there does get to be a point where people eith...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart Beta: When the shark jumps the shark
Replies: 11
Views: 1378

Re: Smart Beta: When the shark jumps the shark

. According to Ken French's data as of end of 2015 - as a share of the overall market Large growth = 47% Large value = 15% Small growth = 2% Small value = 2% While the large value share has increased from 13% 5-10 years ago, the small value share has declined. Just to note the large value share was...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 06, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 70
Views: 5059

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

I believe that the risks of investing in individual stocks is often exaggerated. The article I thought was a bit over the top. A poster pointed out that individual stock portfolios tend to be pretty heavily weighted in large cap, blue chip stocks. Someone else pointed out that price and valuations a...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson on Individual vs. Institutional Investing
Replies: 2
Views: 648

Re: Ben Carlson on Individual vs. Institutional Investing

When I get some time, I will look at my old financial records and calculate my investment return year by year and also show what my approximate asset allocation was each year. It would be interesting to see what my actual investment returns have been. I don't think Quicken has calculated them correc...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36266

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

If he was on the level, I'll give the OP credit for one thing. He came on here and posted for all to see when he was moving long and short on the market, so that we all could evaluate the success or failure of his strategy. If I were going to try a strategy so at odds with common sense and ignore t...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disappointed in International Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 3334

Re: Disappointed in International Funds

Please sell all your International Funds immediately. According to the "Nedsaid effect", that should all but guarantee that International Funds will start doing better than their US counterparts. I have owned Microsoft stock for over a decade now. My broker called disgusted that a software...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting towards oil
Replies: 18
Views: 1146

Re: Tilting towards oil

I am retired but spent most of my working life In the Oil business (Shell, ConocoPhillips, etc.), and have a decent understanding of the dynamics of crude prices (if that is possible). My thoughts along with comments I heard in Bloomberg by T. Boone Pickens led me to believe that it is not a matter...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36266

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

At the end of December he wrote that the price level had stayed just above the moving average, so he stayed long. That is why he lost another ~5% or so in January, but likely should go short in February. Of his 25% loss in 4.5 months, he has made back about 2% today. What is really instructive was ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't bond funds go down?
Replies: 27
Views: 3434

Re: Why didn't bond funds go down?

When the Fed raises interest rates, bond funds are supposed to go down. Yet Total Bond Market is up over 1% already this year. Can someone explain this? Bonds are so confusing! The simple answer is that interest rates went down and not up with the sole exception of the very short term rates which a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls
Replies: 9
Views: 1160

Re: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls

Hey gang, thanks for the great advice and will act on this advice. Ned, good points on being preferred...I guess sitting and thinking about it that is part of my problem. My wife just wants major major returns with a market that is not that strong at this point - educating her is tough. 34 yrs of f...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Maintaining anonymity and privacy [in this forum]
Replies: 22
Views: 3508

Re: Maintaining anonymity and privacy [in this forum]

I am waiting for the day when Facebook asks me if I want to link my Facebook account with my Boglehead's account. The days of online anonymity are pretty much over. They probably know that I post here and under which user name and avatar. Facebook and Google are like the Gestapo, they know everything!
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Confounding Bias for Investment Complexity
Replies: 22
Views: 1987

Re: Hsu - Investing Complexity | Timing Poorly [Behavioral Finance]

[color=seagreen] [size=105] The tilting (principally to value, in this study) is so commonly practiced that it should lead to price adjustments and a diminution of the effect (the value 'premium') that these efforts are attempting to capture. However, the author says value continues to deliver exce...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (1-29-16)
Replies: 61
Views: 9843

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (1-29-16)

Rx for Investing, thank you for your comments about John Bogle and tactical allocation. I am pretty certain that I have viewed that very same video. If Mr. Bogle posted anonymously on this forum, I am certain that he would take a lot of criticism and have Bogle quoted back to him. He has a flexible ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement - Ten key years + Summary
Replies: 64
Views: 10248

Re: Retirement - Ten key years

Peter, this thread is really about the old sequence of returns problem. You don't want a big, bad bear market during those ten key years. I am 56 years old and I am very interested in this topic as I am getting pretty close. Prudential Insurance called this concept "The Retirement Red Zone.&quo...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012
Replies: 16
Views: 1715

Re: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012

It will be interesting to see the investment results of the new MSCI Multi-factor ETFs over time. Their strategy sounds compelling in terms of factor exposures but there is sometimes a wide gulf between strategy and outcome. There is no debate that on backtesting with cost-free long-short portfolio...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls
Replies: 9
Views: 1160

Re: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls

Gang: I have a preferred customer account with a large bank (USA) and we started working with an Investment Advisor. Nedsaid: We all have ego and we all like special treatment. I am not immune from this. I am sure that it feels good to you to be a "preferred customer" at a large bank. But...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just not interested any more [in investing]
Replies: 42
Views: 7148

Re: Just not interested any more [in investing]

I would be interested to know if other Bogleheads experience this same feeling. I have noticed that over the last couple months (maybe 12) I have lost all interest in financial news and blogs. I used to soak up anything I could find but now I feel that all the news is just the same. I feel as thoug...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?
Replies: 111
Views: 9100

Re: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?

I'd like to suggest that maybe this thread should be locked. Lots of opinions have been expressed. Lots of assumptions have been made and many seem to be way outside the parameters of the original post. It is human nature for people to read a situation in light of their own experience. Sometimes th...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday Taylor!
Replies: 87
Views: 3692

Re: Happy Birthday Taylor!

Happy Birthday Taylor and many best wishes.

Ned
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

If you go the London etc. why go on a tour? You speak the language - kind of :D You can go by train or hire a car. Then you have the flexibility of going where you want to go, eating what you want, and mixing with the locals. My first trip to Europe was a bus tour run with military precision. The n...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

I have heard that Krakow is getting to be a bigger tourist destination. A fellow at work visited and really liked it. He did a Berlin, Prague, and Krakow trip. Anyone been to Krakow? It's on my list. I hear it's wonderful. I think Rick Steves said that, whenever people ask him what city is going to...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 103
Views: 7851

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Okay, okay. I admit it. I have not rebalanced my portfolio after the last downturn. I know, I know. I am a bad example to my fellow Bogleheads. So I suppose I will be lashed with wet noodles on this forum. My take on rebalancing is that sometimes there is a rebalancing bonus and sometimes there isn...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 103
Views: 7851

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Okay, okay. I admit it. I have not rebalanced my portfolio after the last downturn. I know, I know. I am a bad example to my fellow Bogleheads. So I suppose I will be lashed with wet noodles on this forum. My take on rebalancing is that sometimes there is a rebalancing bonus and sometimes there isn'...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?
Replies: 111
Views: 9100

Re: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?

As I reflect on this thread, it really is an issue of parents meddling in the affairs of their grown children. This is an issue in nearly all marriages, it is really a matter of degree. It isn't hard to understand why the father is stepping in and trying to help his daughter. I also thought about in...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

Despite having some Polish ancestry I have had no particular desire to visit Poland. I have been to all the other places. A few thoughts London-Edinburgh by train might take up a significant fraction of a day If you go earlier in May you might avoid the worst of the heat and crowds in Italy Italy o...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

If you have been to Rome and Florence, then maybe one of the other options may be desirable. But then you have also been to Berlin. It was good to be able to visit Auschwitz and if this is something you want to do in life, they go for it. I know this was not your question, but if you haven't been t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3299

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

My comments aren't meant to diminish John Bogle's legacy or the advice he has given to investors. He will be remembered as one of the investment greats of all time. We owe him a big debt of gratitude. I remember he was a favorite guest of Louis Rukeyser and Wall $treet Week and in fact made the Wall...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6399

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

I don't think I've seen this discussed explicitly although it seems obvious. (I think that) there are such things as good times and bad times. In good times, you can get a high return without taking much risk. In bad times, you get a lower return for the same risk. Nedsaid: This sounds about right....
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig WSJ: "Market ‘Capitulation’ Is Nowhere in Sight (So Far)"
Replies: 16
Views: 2424

Re: Zweig WSJ: "Market ‘Capitulation’ Is Nowhere in Sight (So Far)"

From Jason Zweig's recent article: "If you have a high tolerance for pain, it’s fine to “buy on the dips” as falling prices make stocks less overpriced. But, as the behavior of many individual investors has been showing, we’re a long way from the quiet despair that has so often been a sign tha...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model
Replies: 5
Views: 599

Re: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model

Yes, the Sharpe ratios are a good place to start. A measurement of the amount of return you get for the amount of risk you are taking. The ratios you are seeing in the white paper are probably pretty good and should pretty much answer your question. I saw "pretty good" and "pretty muc...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3299

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

How many agree with Jack's nuances. Jack has said for many years use age in bonds as a very rough guide. Nuance One. Count Social Security as part of your fixed income allocation. I'm still not sure I agree yet. If this is the case, I could probably just stay with a 60/40 for life and never look ba...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?
Replies: 33
Views: 2674

Re: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?

I was wondering - I've noticed many people on the forum don't like one part of the Swensen lazy portfolio, the (reasonably large) proportion that is devoted to REITs. I was wondering why this is - is it because publicly available REITs are not as good a diversifier as RE partnerships (e.g., REITs a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model
Replies: 5
Views: 599

Re: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model

Larry Swedroe has publishes articles detailing research that shows that private investments don't perform any better than publicly traded investments. A good proxy for private equity would be small-cap value and micro-caps. Thanks for you reply. But I wonder about the risk and volatility compared t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: who is buying or selling ??
Replies: 27
Views: 2006

Re: who is buying or selling ??

During the recent downturn, I have not touched my investments. With new monies I have been investing in stocks and bonds as normal. Recently I bought more shares of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index ETF in my IRA Brokerage account. In my mutual fund IRA, I have been buying TIPS and International ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?
Replies: 111
Views: 9100

Re: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?

Hey everyone, In a bit of a jam here and don't want to rock the boat with my future father in law. I set up my fiances 403b options around January of last year following simple bogleheads philosophy. Her 403b is offered through Fidelity and I set her up with two funds, Spartan Total Market Index Fu...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model
Replies: 5
Views: 599

Re: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model

There have been other threads on this topic. It seems that David Swenson was early to the party with his alternative investments. That is the problem with trying to copy somebody else, what you find is that the early bird gets the worm. Plus the Yale and the Harvard endowment funds have the scale to...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

Depends a lot on your interests and where you have been previously. First off, I can't comment on current safety issues. Hope you have checked out http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings.html I have been to all (except Edinburgh) places you listed. My personal favorite would be ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Help Me Plan My Trip

Hello Fellow Bogleheads: I am considering a Europe trip in May of this year. I have been to Europe four times and this would be my fifth trip. I have priced out 3 trips on my favorite discount website. Here they are: 1) Berlin, Kracow, Warsaw. 10 nights: 3 nights Berlin, 4 nights Kracow, 3 nights Be...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015
Replies: 16
Views: 1840

Re: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015

Maynard, there is a balance in there somewhere. I certainly don't advocate a blind optimism. One needs to have a tough and cold realism too. One cannot ignore what the markets are telling you. But certainly one needs to have an eye open for opportunities and also be willing to be a bit contrarian in...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015
Replies: 16
Views: 1840

Re: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015

Well .. when it comes to investing, it generally pays to be an optimist .. And I'm not an optimist .. I'm more: expect the worst and prepare to be pleasantly surprised We just heard George Soros predict a hard landing for China, and a potential global deflationary environment, the likes of which we...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are REITs not providing any benefit in this market?
Replies: 45
Views: 4907

Re: Why are REITs not providing any benefit in this market?

REITs are supposed to zig when the market zags.. or so I have been told. Why are we not seeing the diversification benefit in the current market? Hard to say. Every bear market is different. REITs worked brilliantly in the 2000-2002 bear market but not in 2008-2009 and apparently not now. Asset all...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??
Replies: 79
Views: 9221

Re: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??

Riptide, you really are maturing as an investor. You are seeing big market drops as buying opportunities. Atta boy! Hope things work out for you in your personal relationships. Many best wishes.

Ned
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015
Replies: 16
Views: 1840

Re: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015

This is so much fun! Whenever Larry Swedroe starts a dividend thread, I feel like a moth being drawn to a light. I just can't help myself. You would think I would learn! Same thing with Maynard, start commenting on hedge funds and he just can't resist. Be prepared for charts and graphs explaining wh...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015
Replies: 16
Views: 1840

Re: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015

I am reminded of the Groucho Marx quote, "I wouldn't join a club that would have me as a member." So far, I am not by hedge fund standards a high net worth investor. Not sure I could invest even if I wanted too. Good to hear that plain vanilla investments available to the small investor be...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??
Replies: 79
Views: 9221

Re: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??

I am still learning, and I am staying the course with my portfolio 2/3 stocks, 1/3 bonds. I am seeing my portfolio steadily drop and have unrecognized losses of quite a bit. However; I see people saying they are buying. Why? The market is only down 12% or so, correct? Why buy stocks now, why not wa...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting study on "dumb" indexes
Replies: 25
Views: 3065

Re: Interesting study on "dumb" indexes

nedsaid wrote: Larry, I guess the "Nedsaid effect" works with the Dow 30 as it has with my own portfolio. That is that the stocks that I sell tend to do better than the stocks I bought to replace them. This has also worked with mutual funds I have noted this same "Nedsaid effect"...

Go to advanced search