Search found 4636 matches

by nedsaid
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Duration" of S & P 500 (as of 2-12-16)
Replies: 31
Views: 1928

Re: "Duration" of S & P 500 (as of 2-12-16)

RxforInvesting, I suppose you and your models may have amazing psychic powers. You have been posting a lot about valuations and the risks in the stock market. I remember that you posted somewhere that the US Stock Market was overvalued by approximately 10%. Right on cue, the markets dropped by about...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation ahead? Nobel Prize Economics winner's thought
Replies: 32
Views: 3104

Re: Deflation ahead? Nobel Prize Economics winner's thought

Dr. Krugman has a very particular agenda, which I'm not getting into here, even though I agree with some of it. The deflation call fits into that worldview. But we aren't into deflation yet, just a huge oversupply in oil, China jitters, and a bear market. It certainly feels weird to have the deflat...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 20
Views: 1460

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Garland, I really enjoy your posts. I think you are right to go against the grain a bit. The best time to go into a strategy is when it is unpopular and folks don't talk about it very much. There has been a lot of discussion in recent years about low-volatility and that alone made me reluctant to ve...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First time to Japan Travel. Advice?
Replies: 21
Views: 1445

Re: First time to Japan Travel. Advice?

Oh, you can slurp your noodles over there.
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First time to Japan Travel. Advice?
Replies: 21
Views: 1445

Re: First time to Japan Travel. Advice?

My wife and I are planning to visit Japan in April for 10-14 days. This would be our first time in the country other than switching planes at Narita. I am looking for basic advice as to whether to (1) go with a tour group, or (2) just book airfare (from SFO) and hotels from the US? I have not been ...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?
Replies: 32
Views: 3463

Re: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?

Please please please please don't anybody say "blood in the streets" please pretty please with sugar on it. Capitulation! The US Stock Market has dropped a bit over 10%. This is normal market behavior. The market is worried that China is growing too slow and that oil prices are falling. I...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought a bunch of stocks today
Replies: 46
Views: 5210

Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Hi guys, Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself....
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disappointed in International Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 3382

Re: Disappointed in International Funds

Now that I am thinking about it, I am very disappointed in the recent performance of my domestic funds. Who will volunteer to sell their domestic stock funds so that mine can go up? Actually, I am disappointed in about everything except my bonds which have done well recently. But markets are like th...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

I have decided on my trip. I will do a Berlin, Krakow, and Warsaw trip. 4 nights in Berlin, 5 nights in Krakow, and 3 nights in Warsaw. I will be taking the train between Berlin and Krakow and between Krakow and Warsaw. I watched the Rick Steves video on Poland and that pretty much made up my mind. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long-term health care insurance and planning for retirement medical expenses
Replies: 5
Views: 678

Re: Long-term health care insurance and planning for retirement medical expenses

From what I have observed over the years, it will pay off to keep on good terms with family members. At some point, you will probably need some help from them. It used to be that the extended family took care of all of this and I think we should return to that model. I am all in favor of doing every...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling in Retirement
Replies: 57
Views: 4309

Re: Traveling in Retirement

Not sure how to pose this without coming off somewhat badly... A commonly stated goal for retirement is to spend time traveling. If you hope to enjoy traveling later as a hobby, why not make time for it now? Who knows if we'll make it to retirement anyway? Nedsaid: This is an excellent point. I mad...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 75
Views: 6375

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

The point of having a stock picker post his picks is that it eliminates the selective memory which afflicts many stock pickers. There is always lots of talk that sounds smart but you never get to see how it works out when the rubber hits the road. Yes, there does get to be a point where people eith...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 07, 2016 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart Beta: When the shark jumps the shark
Replies: 11
Views: 1405

Re: Smart Beta: When the shark jumps the shark

. According to Ken French's data as of end of 2015 - as a share of the overall market Large growth = 47% Large value = 15% Small growth = 2% Small value = 2% While the large value share has increased from 13% 5-10 years ago, the small value share has declined. Just to note the large value share was...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 06, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 75
Views: 6375

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

I believe that the risks of investing in individual stocks is often exaggerated. The article I thought was a bit over the top. A poster pointed out that individual stock portfolios tend to be pretty heavily weighted in large cap, blue chip stocks. Someone else pointed out that price and valuations a...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson on Individual vs. Institutional Investing
Replies: 2
Views: 657

Re: Ben Carlson on Individual vs. Institutional Investing

When I get some time, I will look at my old financial records and calculate my investment return year by year and also show what my approximate asset allocation was each year. It would be interesting to see what my actual investment returns have been. I don't think Quicken has calculated them correc...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36381

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

If he was on the level, I'll give the OP credit for one thing. He came on here and posted for all to see when he was moving long and short on the market, so that we all could evaluate the success or failure of his strategy. If I were going to try a strategy so at odds with common sense and ignore t...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disappointed in International Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 3382

Re: Disappointed in International Funds

Please sell all your International Funds immediately. According to the "Nedsaid effect", that should all but guarantee that International Funds will start doing better than their US counterparts. I have owned Microsoft stock for over a decade now. My broker called disgusted that a software...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting towards oil
Replies: 18
Views: 1170

Re: Tilting towards oil

I am retired but spent most of my working life In the Oil business (Shell, ConocoPhillips, etc.), and have a decent understanding of the dynamics of crude prices (if that is possible). My thoughts along with comments I heard in Bloomberg by T. Boone Pickens led me to believe that it is not a matter...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36381

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

At the end of December he wrote that the price level had stayed just above the moving average, so he stayed long. That is why he lost another ~5% or so in January, but likely should go short in February. Of his 25% loss in 4.5 months, he has made back about 2% today. What is really instructive was ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't bond funds go down?
Replies: 27
Views: 3441

Re: Why didn't bond funds go down?

When the Fed raises interest rates, bond funds are supposed to go down. Yet Total Bond Market is up over 1% already this year. Can someone explain this? Bonds are so confusing! The simple answer is that interest rates went down and not up with the sole exception of the very short term rates which a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls
Replies: 9
Views: 1165

Re: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls

Hey gang, thanks for the great advice and will act on this advice. Ned, good points on being preferred...I guess sitting and thinking about it that is part of my problem. My wife just wants major major returns with a market that is not that strong at this point - educating her is tough. 34 yrs of f...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Maintaining anonymity and privacy [in this forum]
Replies: 22
Views: 3521

Re: Maintaining anonymity and privacy [in this forum]

I am waiting for the day when Facebook asks me if I want to link my Facebook account with my Boglehead's account. The days of online anonymity are pretty much over. They probably know that I post here and under which user name and avatar. Facebook and Google are like the Gestapo, they know everything!
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Confounding Bias for Investment Complexity
Replies: 22
Views: 2005

Re: Hsu - Investing Complexity | Timing Poorly [Behavioral Finance]

[color=seagreen] [size=105] The tilting (principally to value, in this study) is so commonly practiced that it should lead to price adjustments and a diminution of the effect (the value 'premium') that these efforts are attempting to capture. However, the author says value continues to deliver exce...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (1-29-16)
Replies: 61
Views: 9870

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (1-29-16)

Rx for Investing, thank you for your comments about John Bogle and tactical allocation. I am pretty certain that I have viewed that very same video. If Mr. Bogle posted anonymously on this forum, I am certain that he would take a lot of criticism and have Bogle quoted back to him. He has a flexible ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement - Ten key years + Summary
Replies: 64
Views: 10387

Re: Retirement - Ten key years

Peter, this thread is really about the old sequence of returns problem. You don't want a big, bad bear market during those ten key years. I am 56 years old and I am very interested in this topic as I am getting pretty close. Prudential Insurance called this concept "The Retirement Red Zone.&quo...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012
Replies: 16
Views: 1759

Re: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012

It will be interesting to see the investment results of the new MSCI Multi-factor ETFs over time. Their strategy sounds compelling in terms of factor exposures but there is sometimes a wide gulf between strategy and outcome. There is no debate that on backtesting with cost-free long-short portfolio...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls
Replies: 9
Views: 1165

Re: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls

Gang: I have a preferred customer account with a large bank (USA) and we started working with an Investment Advisor. Nedsaid: We all have ego and we all like special treatment. I am not immune from this. I am sure that it feels good to you to be a "preferred customer" at a large bank. But...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just not interested any more [in investing]
Replies: 42
Views: 7167

Re: Just not interested any more [in investing]

I would be interested to know if other Bogleheads experience this same feeling. I have noticed that over the last couple months (maybe 12) I have lost all interest in financial news and blogs. I used to soak up anything I could find but now I feel that all the news is just the same. I feel as thoug...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?
Replies: 111
Views: 9114

Re: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?

I'd like to suggest that maybe this thread should be locked. Lots of opinions have been expressed. Lots of assumptions have been made and many seem to be way outside the parameters of the original post. It is human nature for people to read a situation in light of their own experience. Sometimes th...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday Taylor!
Replies: 87
Views: 3725

Re: Happy Birthday Taylor!

Happy Birthday Taylor and many best wishes.

Ned
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

If you go the London etc. why go on a tour? You speak the language - kind of :D You can go by train or hire a car. Then you have the flexibility of going where you want to go, eating what you want, and mixing with the locals. My first trip to Europe was a bus tour run with military precision. The n...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

I have heard that Krakow is getting to be a bigger tourist destination. A fellow at work visited and really liked it. He did a Berlin, Prague, and Krakow trip. Anyone been to Krakow? It's on my list. I hear it's wonderful. I think Rick Steves said that, whenever people ask him what city is going to...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 9826

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Okay, okay. I admit it. I have not rebalanced my portfolio after the last downturn. I know, I know. I am a bad example to my fellow Bogleheads. So I suppose I will be lashed with wet noodles on this forum. My take on rebalancing is that sometimes there is a rebalancing bonus and sometimes there isn...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 9826

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Okay, okay. I admit it. I have not rebalanced my portfolio after the last downturn. I know, I know. I am a bad example to my fellow Bogleheads. So I suppose I will be lashed with wet noodles on this forum. My take on rebalancing is that sometimes there is a rebalancing bonus and sometimes there isn'...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?
Replies: 111
Views: 9114

Re: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?

As I reflect on this thread, it really is an issue of parents meddling in the affairs of their grown children. This is an issue in nearly all marriages, it is really a matter of degree. It isn't hard to understand why the father is stepping in and trying to help his daughter. I also thought about in...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

Despite having some Polish ancestry I have had no particular desire to visit Poland. I have been to all the other places. A few thoughts London-Edinburgh by train might take up a significant fraction of a day If you go earlier in May you might avoid the worst of the heat and crowds in Italy Italy o...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

If you have been to Rome and Florence, then maybe one of the other options may be desirable. But then you have also been to Berlin. It was good to be able to visit Auschwitz and if this is something you want to do in life, they go for it. I know this was not your question, but if you haven't been t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3310

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

My comments aren't meant to diminish John Bogle's legacy or the advice he has given to investors. He will be remembered as one of the investment greats of all time. We owe him a big debt of gratitude. I remember he was a favorite guest of Louis Rukeyser and Wall $treet Week and in fact made the Wall...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6449

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

I don't think I've seen this discussed explicitly although it seems obvious. (I think that) there are such things as good times and bad times. In good times, you can get a high return without taking much risk. In bad times, you get a lower return for the same risk. Nedsaid: This sounds about right....
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig WSJ: "Market ‘Capitulation’ Is Nowhere in Sight (So Far)"
Replies: 16
Views: 2428

Re: Zweig WSJ: "Market ‘Capitulation’ Is Nowhere in Sight (So Far)"

From Jason Zweig's recent article: "If you have a high tolerance for pain, it’s fine to “buy on the dips” as falling prices make stocks less overpriced. But, as the behavior of many individual investors has been showing, we’re a long way from the quiet despair that has so often been a sign tha...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model
Replies: 5
Views: 600

Re: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model

Yes, the Sharpe ratios are a good place to start. A measurement of the amount of return you get for the amount of risk you are taking. The ratios you are seeing in the white paper are probably pretty good and should pretty much answer your question. I saw "pretty good" and "pretty muc...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3310

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

How many agree with Jack's nuances. Jack has said for many years use age in bonds as a very rough guide. Nuance One. Count Social Security as part of your fixed income allocation. I'm still not sure I agree yet. If this is the case, I could probably just stay with a 60/40 for life and never look ba...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?
Replies: 33
Views: 2687

Re: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?

I was wondering - I've noticed many people on the forum don't like one part of the Swensen lazy portfolio, the (reasonably large) proportion that is devoted to REITs. I was wondering why this is - is it because publicly available REITs are not as good a diversifier as RE partnerships (e.g., REITs a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model
Replies: 5
Views: 600

Re: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model

Larry Swedroe has publishes articles detailing research that shows that private investments don't perform any better than publicly traded investments. A good proxy for private equity would be small-cap value and micro-caps. Thanks for you reply. But I wonder about the risk and volatility compared t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: who is buying or selling ??
Replies: 27
Views: 2010

Re: who is buying or selling ??

During the recent downturn, I have not touched my investments. With new monies I have been investing in stocks and bonds as normal. Recently I bought more shares of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index ETF in my IRA Brokerage account. In my mutual fund IRA, I have been buying TIPS and International ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?
Replies: 111
Views: 9114

Re: Think my future father in law is giving the wrong advice to my fiance..what should i do?

Hey everyone, In a bit of a jam here and don't want to rock the boat with my future father in law. I set up my fiances 403b options around January of last year following simple bogleheads philosophy. Her 403b is offered through Fidelity and I set her up with two funds, Spartan Total Market Index Fu...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model
Replies: 5
Views: 600

Re: For Rick Ferri and Others, Questions Related to the Endowment Fund Model

There have been other threads on this topic. It seems that David Swenson was early to the party with his alternative investments. That is the problem with trying to copy somebody else, what you find is that the early bird gets the worm. Plus the Yale and the Harvard endowment funds have the scale to...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Re: Help Me Plan My Trip

Depends a lot on your interests and where you have been previously. First off, I can't comment on current safety issues. Hope you have checked out http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings.html I have been to all (except Edinburgh) places you listed. My personal favorite would be ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me Plan My Trip
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Help Me Plan My Trip

Hello Fellow Bogleheads: I am considering a Europe trip in May of this year. I have been to Europe four times and this would be my fifth trip. I have priced out 3 trips on my favorite discount website. Here they are: 1) Berlin, Kracow, Warsaw. 10 nights: 3 nights Berlin, 4 nights Kracow, 3 nights Be...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015
Replies: 16
Views: 1846

Re: My final review of hedge fund performance in 2015

Maynard, there is a balance in there somewhere. I certainly don't advocate a blind optimism. One needs to have a tough and cold realism too. One cannot ignore what the markets are telling you. But certainly one needs to have an eye open for opportunities and also be willing to be a bit contrarian in...

Go to advanced search