Search found 5430 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

I will make one more post here and then move on. I see this forum as a place where people can freely comment and express ideas. The back and forth between people who disagree is how you learn. It forces one to defend ideas that perhaps one previously felt were self-evident. It helps a person to thin...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking to take first international trip
Replies: 10
Views: 578

Re: Looking to take first international trip

You will find that your US credit cards will work all across the world. Your sign and wipe, or chip and sign US cards should work everywhere. The VISA/MasterCard merchant agreements require that merchants be able to handle the different types of cards. Where you probably will have trouble is trying ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking to take first international trip
Replies: 10
Views: 578

Re: Looking to take first international trip

My wife and I have decided to plan a trip overseas next year, but we are having a hard time deciding where to go. We are really open to any options, but mostly we are talking about Rome and Paris. We love to get out and sight see and like to stay active on our vacations. We aren't the type to go to...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]
Replies: 46
Views: 6186

Re: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]

question: I purchased VGENX back in May 20th and it was $47.49 and oil was at around 48. now oil is at 41 but VGENX went up 49.23. why is it like that? oil went down but vgenx went up? Oil is kinda low so I want to buy some VGENX, but it went up to 49.23 currently what's up with that? I dont' under...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is market out of Sync
Replies: 20
Views: 1428

Re: Is market out of Sync

It seems to me like the market is just overvalued. I can't figure what has changed so much from the beginning of the year until now to cause the bull market we're seeing. What are your thoughts? A couple things to keep in mind. First, during bull markets, stocks always look expensive. Second, forwa...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

I'm of the opinion that nobody can time the market. I also agree that there are no patterns/cycles in the stock market, there are periods of market rises and declines which no one can predict beforehand. Therefore, you should slowly ease your way into the market or dump it all in, which ever way yo...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 336
Views: 42597

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

I do wonder what happened. I have two theories. One is that this was all a hoax to get a rise out of Bogleheads. Second, the guy was on the level and did poorly and just simply signed off the forum too embarrassed to give us an update. That is the problem with an anonymous forum, you don't always kn...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

You're posting a lot of random information, while ignoring the basic premise. A cycle is periodic. That is what makes it a cycle. An assortment of various events on a timeline does not make a cycle. As you don't seem to want to really discuss the issue, I don't plan to waste anymore time. Earl I su...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Taylor, this is on a Morningstar Interview somewhere but I found this in a Motley Fool interview with John Bogle. Below is the link to the interview. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/14/investing-legend-jack-bogle-answers-your-questions.aspx This was an interview between Tom Gardner of ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Taylor, I saw Mr. Bogle talk about this on a Morningstar Interview. He did do a calculation of future expected returns for both stocks and bonds. He said that the future expected returns of stocks were low and specifically said that bonds were the steal of the century. He did specifically talk abou...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: Mr. Bogle's reasons for reducing equity percentage

Bogleheads: John Bogle, our mentor, sold most of his stocks in the very late 1990's and bought bonds with the proceeds. Two big reasons for him doing so: iffy health and valuations. Bogle noticed that stocks were in a mania and were way overvalued compared to historical norms. He also noticed bonds...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

I just googled stock market cycles and I saw an article pop up on Zacks, one at the Fidelity website, and another one on Investopedia. There is certainly a lot of belief in their existence. Where I would agree with you is that I wouldn't try to make predictions on this stuff. These trends and cycles...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in 6 months ...Why should I pay $13,500/year to a Financial Advisor?
Replies: 28
Views: 1845

Re: Retiring in 6 months ...Why should I pay $13,500/year to a Financial Advisor?

I also understand in retirement there are some complexities to managing your money such as Pension/SS income mgmt, Taxes, Sequence of withdrawls etc. that I have not needed to deal with in my accumulation phase (while working). I think your concerns are legitimate. $13,500 a year is too much. Why n...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

You're free to think that. However, almost by definition, for there to be cycles there has to periodicity. That's what cycles are. Sure, there have been times when one type of investment has dominated, but that doesn't make it a cycle. That's like looking for cycles in baseball team wins. Various t...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 29, 2016 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)
Replies: 45
Views: 3718

Re: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)

Now I am really confused..... I thought dividends were not a "good" idea... In past threads :shock: "The fund focuses on high-quality companies that have both the ability and the commitment to grow their dividends over time." Toons, I like dividends too. I have noted that invest...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 29, 2016 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)
Replies: 45
Views: 3718

Re: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)

Now I am really confused..... I thought dividends were not a "good" idea... In past threads :shock: "The fund focuses on high-quality companies that have both the ability and the commitment to grow their dividends over time." Toons, I like dividends too. I have noted that invest...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 29, 2016 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recently widowed.. Starting over planning for retirement with a couple of unique challenges
Replies: 20
Views: 2105

Re: Recently widowed.. Starting over planning for retirement with a couple of unique challenges

JWalker, I am very sorry to hear about your loss. What a difficult event to deal with. I might be going against the grain here but I think you should only make the financial decisions that you absolutely have to make during the next 6 months to a year. Pay the bills and decide the things that just c...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

There are definitely cycles in the markets. The problem is we don't know how long they last. They are easier to spot in hindsight than when you are living through them. I disagree. A cycle is something with periodicity. What you are talking about are ups and downs. People try to see patterns becaus...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

I for one was expecting the market to have a substantial move down since 2012 as well. Given that markets are cyclical, I know it will happen at some point, and given history, there's an extremely good chance that it will happen within the next 3 years. I don't believe that markets are cyclic in an...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 5 reasons the rich are better investors than average Joe
Replies: 14
Views: 2755

Re: 5 reasons the rich are better investors than average Joe

People who are rich are most often rich for other reasons than being great investors. They got rich through such things as business, inventions, distribution, music, sports, etc.
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3045

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

nedsaid wrote: As much as I like and admire Larry Swedroe and Dr. Bill Bernstein, there might be something going on with real estate that they are completely missing. True, nedsaid, and here's another idea that is as close to ensuring bullet proof high returns as possible. I'll short REITs, you buy...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?
Replies: 36
Views: 2666

Re: asset allocation too cash heavy: how to unwind?

I don't know, whenever I had too much cash in my investment accounts, I would just buy something. Really, you are asking three questions. First, is about asset allocation for taxable and non-taxable accounts. You seem pretty happy with your retirement account. Second, once you have decided on an all...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3045

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

[ One reason I didn't sell all my REITs, just 20%, are rising property values and rising rents. I had one person tell me that his apartment rent went up $200 a month and of course he was looking for alternatives. I suppose one could say that REITs are going up because of the greater fool theory but...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3045

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

Digging a bit further into this. in addition to the interest rate side of the story, that was essentially embedded in the "speculative return" part of Bill's equation, I also questioned the assumptions regarding dividend growth. In short, I saw no fundamental rationale for dividends growi...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

In dollar terms, that is YUUUUGE! :) But so are the daily and monthly ups and downs at this point. But they are still just noise and do not effect your long term success or failure and so are not important (IMHO). I am just not a fan of playing the noise - but as noted it is unlikely to matter for ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Who here changes their AA every year based on "estimated" returns? Age to retirement is a FAR FAR larger component of determining AA than valuations or estimated returns. You sound like a bunch of market timers. Homer, you are starting to get ridiculous. Normally I agree with you but your...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

What am I doing now? I just trimmed 20% of my REITs and may do some more. Just wondering 20% of what? If say one had a 10% stake in REITS, that would be a 2% change in the total portfolio? Is that a change that can really move the needle as far as your overall plan for getting to or through retirem...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)
Replies: 45
Views: 3718

Re: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)

Don't worry. Just chase the ETF version. Don't think there is an ETF version of this one. The other 2 "dividend" funds, Dividend Appreciation, and High Dividend Yield, are still open (MF and ETF). They are outperforming the active Dividend Growth, but in the past, the Dividend Growth has ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Homer Yes of course your nearing retirement should matter greatly in AA decision. But so MUST valuations. If you ignore them you are making a huge mistake IMO because you don't know what your NEED to take risk is, and you cannot know that without estimating returns, and valuations matter GREATLY, n...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)
Replies: 45
Views: 3718

Re: Vanguard Dividend Growth just closed (effective *now*)

Don't worry. Just chase the ETF version.
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3045

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

True that nobody can predict the future. I did sell REITS due to valuation concerns at about that time, actually probably before Dr. Bernstein's article and I haven't bought back in. Following the nedsaid principal they skyrocketed since I sold them. LOL!!! LOL!!! LOL!!! Know I know why my REITs we...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Bonds are high because of a sluggish economy and very low inflation. There is also the flight to less risky assets. Stocks look high because of low interest rates and low inflation. There is also a lot of money sloshing around out there. This is not irrational behavior. I have read that because bon...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 141
Views: 7358

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Inflation has a way of making returns seem higher than they really are particularly on the fixed income side. This works on the stock side as well. Interest rates and inflation have both been falling since the early 1980's. I am too lazy to look it up, but it seems from memory that inflation peaked ...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 192
Views: 11148

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

I reread through sections of a couple of Larry Swedroe's books, sections that related to High Yield Corporates (junk). Larry cited a period from 1979 to 2008, a thirty year period where Vanguard High Yield returned 6.31% a year vs. Barclays Capital US Intermediate Credit Bond Index which are investm...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 192
Views: 11148

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Just for fun let's look at the four bond funds and compare, three of which I own personally. This time, let's look at the last 15 years rather than the last 10 and see if that makes a difference. My thesis is that Intermediate Term Treasuries did exceptionally well since the 2008-2009 financial cris...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit work and become SAHM - advice? regrets?
Replies: 57
Views: 5519

Re: Quit work and become SAHM - advice? regrets?

Two things you no longer have to pay for as a stay at home mother are day care and commuting expenses. Day care can be quite expensive. My wife went to stay at home when our second one came along. She's a nurse. 1: Her car before staying home racked up 12k miles a year. Once home, 18k miles a year....
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 192
Views: 11148

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Disagree! A retirees deferred folios should be all bonds and, as you know, Vanguard High Yield bonds are of better quality, and they are bonds despite the tired old saw " they sometimes act Ike stocks". Stocks should remain in the taxable folio. Don't know what you mean about being "...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments
Replies: 15
Views: 1040

Re: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments

Okay, I see what Fidelity is doing. I got the same exact e-mail today. What Fidelity is doing in the case of the Wilsons creating three streams of income, two from annuities and one from 4% inflation adjusted withdrawals from the remaining portfolio. The first income stream is the Single Premium Imm...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments
Replies: 15
Views: 1040

Re: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments

ResearchMed, my assumption is that you work for a large healthcare organization so your 403b plan should be outstanding. It sounds like you are not contributing to it and it also sounds like you might have substantial investments in taxable accounts. You CAN sell investments in taxable accounts, pay...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments
Replies: 15
Views: 1040

Re: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments

The reason that you buy a Single Premium Immediate Annuity are the mortality credits. For example, were I age 65, I could buy an annuity for $100,000 from New York Life and receive $500 a month for the rest of my life. That is $6,000 a year or a 6% withdrawal rate. Were I taking withdrawals from a p...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments
Replies: 15
Views: 1040

Re: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments

Got this in the mail today. Annuities using my tax deferred accts. Seems odd. minskbelarus47: It IS " odd ." Tax-advantaged annuities are like wearing an expensive raincoat inside your house. You can read the facts about variable annuities by Mel Lindauer in Forbes : Variable Annuities Do...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 192
Views: 11148

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Interesting article and one to consider when bond shopping. I like lots of short and intermediate Corporate bonds in our IRA's as well as High Yield too! Plus total international bonds for diversity. Also have some total bond index funds. Not changing that AA either as it works for us. More risk fo...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments
Replies: 15
Views: 1040

Re: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments

I think Fidelity is doing a good thing. There are a couple of annuities that are spoken of favorably here. Single Premium Immediate Annuities are the most favored here. You can buy these with tax deferred money from IRA's or rolled over from workplace savings plans. It is important that this be exec...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments
Replies: 15
Views: 1040

Re: Fidelity Pushing Annuities for Tax Deferred Accts - Comments

You aren't posting copyrighted information, it looks like you typed the contents of a letter you got from Fidelity. So I don't think the moderators will ask you to delete for violation of fair use. You can quote articles and I think the moderators would rather that you post a link to whatever web ar...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 42
Views: 3513

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

There are very smart people who say that China is in trouble. Too much capacity and making too much stuff for the world markets to absorb. On top of that, there is a lot of debt to service and a lot of people to keep employed. High unemployment is bad for political stability. The thinking is that C...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification! A must read article
Replies: 9
Views: 2385

Re: Diversification! A must read article

It is a very good article. Enjoyed it very much. I could just imagine Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof singing a song about diversification. Like tradition, it is very important. Just that the lyrics would flow as smoothly.
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 42
Views: 3513

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

My questions are: 1) has globalization affected inflation by moving salarys to low cost areas? Nedsaid: There are very smart people who say that China is in trouble. Too much capacity and making too much stuff for the world markets to absorb. On top of that, there is a lot of debt to service and a ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 2257

Re: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor

Simplegift wrote: IN SUM: To invest in stocks is to wager on the continued success and resiliency of global capitalism. Investors in the U.S. market have historically been rewarded with some of the highest, most consistent stock returns in the world (no future guarantees). However, for the buy-hold...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 42
Views: 3513

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

As Donald Rumsfeld would say, "You go to war with the Army you have." In the same way, you will go into retirement with the portfolio you have at the time. We do everything to prepare, but guess what, it won't be perfect. You won't have the right asset allocation, you won't have a big enou...
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My experience with "older" used car
Replies: 51
Views: 3739

Re: My experience with "older" used car

With older cars you need to be willing to have work done on them maybe 2 to 3 times a year. What you don't want is when everything gives out at once. There does get to be a point at which it gets hard to get parts and that is another factor. Do all the routine stuff like oil changes, etc.

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