Search found 7469 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch
Replies: 15
Views: 1673

Re: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch

Nedsaid says to let B.F. Skinner's pigeons pick stocks. Conditioned learning and all of that. No need to hire programmers.
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 23
Views: 1622

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Pretty much everything fell during the 2008-2009 financial crisis other than nominal treasuries and certain agency bonds like GNMAs. TIPS, Hi-Yield, and Corporate Bonds all got hit rather hard. nedsaid: Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund gained +5.1% in 2008 and +5.9% in 2009. Best wishes. Tay...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 23
Views: 1622

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

The Larry portfolio is 70% Short term treasuries and 30% US and International Small-Cap Value. One that your version of the Larry portfolio didn't do so well during the financial crisis is that your bond benchmark had bonds other than treasuries in it. Pretty much everything fell during the 2008-200...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch
Replies: 15
Views: 1673

Re: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch

I always said that the robot that laughed at my jokes, tells me how smart and good looking I am, and tells me what a brilliant investor I am will get my business! As they say, flattery will get you everywhere!
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

Besty2017, I experience the pain of lay-off back in 2014 after working over 15 years at a job and with a company that I loved. It was hard to take as we get so much of our identity from our job, we see our co-workers eight hours a day five days a week more than we see our own friends and family. It ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
Replies: 22
Views: 2293

Re: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course

Probably another section of the Wiki would be allocated to jokes we can tell each other during bear markets and burst bubbles. My favorite is that after the crash that there are a lot of good buys on Wall Street. Good bye Mercedes. Good bye Rolex. Good bye house. Good bye spouse. Humor does lessen t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch
Replies: 15
Views: 1673

Re: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch

Automaton had been killing jobs for a century. At the turn of the last century, 30% of the people were employed in agriculture. Now it's 3%. It's just a matter of time before YOUR job is replaced. Heck, the bots will learn how to both post on Bogleheads and how to read the threads. Pretty much a ba...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor
Replies: 61
Views: 2658

Re: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor

My general rule is that I favor broad diversification over narrow diversification. If your 4 fund portfolio is more diversified than your 2 fund portfolio, I would go with the 4 fund portfolio. It is still a simple portfolio, it isn't much of a jump to rebalance a 4 fund portfolio over a 2 fund port...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 58
Views: 2457

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

I don't know, I just don't get too fancy with all of this stuff. I look at asset classes which have had inflation beating returns over time and invest in them, knowing that each asset class have their own unique characteristics and risks. Shoot if Vanguard started a "Little Green Men on Mars St...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor
Replies: 61
Views: 2658

Re: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor

This is Ned, checking in. It sounds like TM90 has received some really good feedback from European Bogleheads, it is cool that we could help a young investor in Belgium. Hopefully, TM90 is happy with his new mix of investments.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

Okay, a couple more things. First, a lawsuit can derail even the best planned and financed retirements. Be certain that you have good auto and home insurance with proper liability limits. I would also recommend an umbrella policy which gets you additional liability coverage beyond the limits of your...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

Despite all the good advice given here, I still recommend that you see a fee only financial planner that charges by the hour. What you don't want is a commissioned salesperson. So avoid advisors from full-service brokerage houses like Edward Jones or Ameriprise. Other advisors are actually insurance...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

I have read through the thread and I so far haven't seen any flaws with what people have told you so far. What I will say is that retiredjg is one of our better posters on the forum and she has tirelessly helped many investors here. I have crossed paths with her on many threads and I find her advice...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

It looks like you are getting very good advice here, what you would have paid hundreds if not thousands for if you saw an advisor. Let me summarize a bit and mention some concepts that you need to understand for good retirement planning. These are not in any order. 1) The taxability of Social Securi...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
Replies: 22
Views: 2293

Re: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course

This is the best explanation of asset bubbles that I have ever read. We should get permission from the author and have this posted in the Wiki. Totally agreed. I started to read this article distractedly, then paid more attention, and then realized that the author is really onto something, and that...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 5426

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

Again, Valuethinker a good analysis of my comments about Italian money printing and cultural expectations. I was theorizing that the large influx of Italians into Argentina explained a lot of what is going on there now. Hard to believe they once ran the Roman Empire. But again, I could see that even...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 5426

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

I am glad to see that Valuethinker has continued to post here, I have been amazed at his depth of knowledge on many topics. He even opines on Argentinian bonds, which I know next to nothing about. It is also good to see Garland Whizzer posting a bit more, I have always enjoyed his well thought out p...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is structured notes sound investment choice?
Replies: 16
Views: 754

Re: Is structured notes sound investment choice?

It sounds to me like you have been talking to a financial advisor or at least the wrong type of advisor. These products are not recommended by the Boglehead community.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"
Replies: 41
Views: 3535

Re: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"

My what short memories that people have. I still have fresh memories of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets, each time stocks dropped by over 50%. Don't know about anyone else but those losses, even though they were temporary, really did hurt. In line with what Grok87 said, US Stocks were e...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch
Replies: 15
Views: 1673

Re: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch

A lot of this will be driven by costs as more and more money flows to index funds and the more passive factor funds. Charging one percent a year for fund management is just not going to be sustainable. The first place to look for cost cuts is to see if robots can take over some of the securities ana...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

We thought that we could wait as long as possible before taking Social Security assuming that our taxable account could support us for a few years. I have not yet organized myself enough about my job searching decision. As for health insurance, that is least familiar task for me. Thanks for pointin...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

One interesting fact is if you are 55 or older when you are let go you can withdraw from the 401(k) penalty free. That is NOT TRUE of IRAs so my advice is do not roll over into an IRA. Keep in 401(k) in case you want to access it before 59.5. Nedsaid: Great point. I have a 403(b) and a 401(k) from ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

Thanks for feedback. We have no debt. The market price of our house is about 250K. Our average expense per year was about 65K. We do not have any taxable stock loss to offset any capital gain and have enough MM to live for a few years. We are not sure when to sell any stock in our taxable account t...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what do parents do with sudden windfall
Replies: 11
Views: 1762

Re: what do parents do with sudden windfall

Hey Boglefeet, hope your YouTube channel is working out for you. Maybe Bogleheads can drive eyeballs and clicks to your website and channel.
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what do parents do with sudden windfall
Replies: 11
Views: 1762

Re: what do parents do with sudden windfall

I think the parents should put the money in the bank for now. The advice to consult eldercare resources or perhaps an attorney that specializes in elder law is good. I would certainly make sure that a will, durable power of attorney, and healthcare directive are in place. You don't have to rush to m...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices
Replies: 39
Views: 4108

Re: 58 years old and laid off seeking advices

I feel for you, it is tough getting laid off. Unfortunately, when you get into your fifties, you are a target for lay-offs. This is why I strongly recommend having one year's worth of living expenses in an emergency account by the time you are 50. Fortunately, you have over $3 million and you should...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does Fidelity makes money, if I own all Vanguard funds or ETFs
Replies: 42
Views: 3010

Re: How does Fidelity makes money, if I own all Vanguard funds or ETFs

(Yes feeling lazy to google :oops: or easy to type or helps others as well ) if I have Fidelity account, how does, Fidelity, makes money when I hold all Vanguard funds and ETFs, in a buy and hold fashion, with minimal transaction fees. My reaction is that we should be good customers too. I am a Fid...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 7645

Re: Trust Fund Hell

I don't know, if somebody delivered me $60,000; I would be whooping and hollering and celebrating. Until you find out that it could/should have been $120,000. :P Coulda, woulda, shoulda. I think we all agree that the management of the assets was less than ideal. It would be interesting to know what...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 5426

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

Thanks for the answer. I don't want to throw around stereotypes and after all, people are people. But from region to region and from group to group there are certain things you can't help but notice. Italy is a beautiful country. The architecture and the art are just stunning. A few days in Italy le...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 57
Views: 13083

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

For comparison, according to M*, VTSMX (total market) went up by a factor of 3.386830 from 6/7/2002 to 6/7/2017 (15 years), including reinvestment of distributions, which annualized is 8.47%. Thank you for that. That gives me another basis for comparison. Clearly the individual stock project of min...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 57
Views: 13083

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

So how have I done overall? I have calculated my returns using a couple of benchmarks. My portfolio since the early 2000's has been roughly 70/30. Before the 2008-2009 crash, I got up to 72/28. The bear market took me down to probably about 60/40 and it crept up again to 69/31. I did not rebalance f...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 57
Views: 13083

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I am reposting from a thread where Factor investing was discussed and I posted about my factor tilts and how those tilts have actually performed. This data is as of June 7, 2017. Here I am tracking how my value-oriented individual stock portfolio actually performed. I didn't realize until recently t...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 57
Views: 13083

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

1. US Total Stock Market Index 12.84% 2. Diversified Bond Fund 6.12% 3. Vanguard US Total Bond Market Index 5.71% In Fund and in ETF form. 4. Cash Balance Retirement Pension 4.52% (Frozen after 2009). 5. TIPS Fund 3.36% 6. GNMA Fund 3.05% 7. Vanguard Small Value Index ETF 2.93% 8. Fidelity Freedom 2...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 5426

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

I lived in Argentina for the better part of two years. It is a very special place with a culture unto its own. Many people do not know this, but about 2/3 of Portenos have Italian ancestors. There was a massive wave of Italian emigration in the 1800s and early 1900s. In a common description Porteno...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 7645

Re: One of the oldest tricks in the book

Bogleheads: One of the oldest tricks in the book that is used by unscrupulous brokers and advisors (to earn commissions and fool their clients) is to sell a fund in the clients portfolio that is doing poorly and buy a fund what is doing well. When the client looks at their portfolio, containing onl...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 7645

Re: Trust Fund Hell

My adopted daughter’s deceased father left her a trust fund which paid out at 25, 30, and 35 years of age. The trustee is her uncle. He is a very nice guy and a tax attorney in New York (unfortunately, however, he is not Bruce Steiner). About 18 years ago I happened to see how the uncle was investi...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 7645

Re: Trust Fund Hell

Pacific: Thank you for your post regarding the danger of trust fund investment managers. In 1990 I brought suit against the largest bank in Miami for mishandling the investments of my grandmother's trust fund. This is a portion of the suit: "During the period of time (17 years) that the trust ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars my only weakness, make me feel bad!!
Replies: 32
Views: 1891

Re: Cars my only weakness, make me feel bad!!

If you buy your cars new and use them for about 10 years, I would say that you are well within the bounds of Bogleism. You are buying nice cars and keeping them up. You also can well afford your purchases. Another factor is that owning newer cars means that you will own safer cars. You are doing jus...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 49
Views: 3549

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

If you own 20% of your stock portfolio in total international fund and the other 80% of your stock portfolio in total stock market. How much international do you really own??????? I have my set at 20% but thinking its more because of what Jack states. Okay, if the 20% of your stocks that are Intern...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Losing admiration for Warren Buffett
Replies: 9
Views: 1475

Re: Losing admiration for Warren Buffett

What people fail to realize is that success in business requires a certain amount of ruthlessness. You have to make tough decisions sometimes and those tough decisions will result in hurt feelings and bruised egos. Sometimes you have to fire people: poor business conditions might necessitate lay-off...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
Replies: 22
Views: 2293

Re: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course

This is the best explanation of asset bubbles that I have ever read. We should get permission from the author and have this posted in the Wiki. The central idea of the mismatch of time horizons and expectations among market participants was a great concept. His analogy of the accountants vs. the Rai...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International's Correlation to Energy (A Real Thing? Ended? Why?)
Replies: 13
Views: 1074

Re: International's Correlation to Energy (A Real Thing? Ended? Why?)

Actually, Steve Forbes believes that oil prices are a function of the strength of the US Dollar. When the dollar is strong, oil prices tend to be low. When the dollar is weak, oil prices tend to be high. He makes an interesting argument.
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 49
Views: 3549

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Personally, I think the world is more inter-connected than ever before, so I think the reasons for investing in foreign stocks are fewer by the day. But, of course, I could be wrong. I do have 20% of my stocks in Total International Stock Index Fund. Homer, I like what you have done here for one si...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"
Replies: 41
Views: 3535

Re: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"

"I've always had success picking individual stocks" Great can you provide me your personal 20,10,5, and 3 year GIPS certified returns? Didn't think so. 100% equities is okay being 25 years out. An adviser "not believing in bonds" is a bit more alarming. What else may they not be...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 5426

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

I would think that this would be a poor bet. Since this bond is priced in US Dollars, there is default risk with this bond as Argentina cannot create more dollars to buy this off. My understanding is that Argentina had a higher standard of living than the United States back in 1945. Whatever advanta...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantages of Indexing Besides Low Cost
Replies: 14
Views: 1195

Re: Advantages of Indexing Besides Low Cost

With index funds you don't get style drift.
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Retirement a Good Option?
Replies: 10
Views: 1280

Re: Target Date Retirement a Good Option?

I'm new to investing and have been reading up on options for retirement. Currently, I have a 401(K) set up by my employer. There is an annual company contribution of 5% of my eligible base compensation with an additional discretionary profit-sharing contribution of up to 10% more. The default fund ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 24
Views: 3316

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

Taylor, I think some of this is driven by clients. Clients want to see that their advisor is "doing something", I think seeing a three fund portfolio might raise objections after spending hundreds if not thousands on a financial plan. Probably ego not only on the part of the advisor but a...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 24
Views: 3316

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

Taylor, I think some of this is driven by clients. Clients want to see that their advisor is "doing something", I think seeing a three fund portfolio might raise objections after spending hundreds if not thousands on a financial plan. Probably ego not only on the part of the advisor but a...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 49
Views: 3549

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Nisiprius, as far as I know most all International Stock funds are not currency hedged. Are there any out there? I am not aware of any myself. It seems that currencies are a big factor in US vs International Stock performance. When the dollar is strong, it seems like US Stocks predominate and when t...

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