Search found 1541 matches

by mpt follower
Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could negative interest rates be the Black Swan?
Replies: 18
Views: 1673

Re: Could negative interest rates be the Black Swan?

^There are a lot of ramifications in deflation and its remedies. In the meantime the Markets are confused. JMO Just a minor comment on deflation. Productivity driven deflation is healthy, i.e., drop in price of computers, etc. However, Fed bank created, i.e., artificial, is dangerous. You decide wh...
by mpt follower
Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could negative interest rates be the Black Swan?
Replies: 18
Views: 1673

Re: Could negative interest rates be the Black Swan?

Many interest rates are already negative in real inflation adjusted returns and this is not uncommon so it would be hard to see how a nominal negative rate would have a fundamental effect. I suggest you read a recent article on the subject in the Economist. It is not as simple as one may think. htt...
by mpt follower
Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could negative interest rates be the Black Swan?
Replies: 18
Views: 1673

Re: Could negative interest rates be the Black Swan?

It would be interesting to see how the banking system can profitably operate in a negative interest rate environment. What about the money market instruments that we all use so very often. Will it be their death? Interesting and certainly scary times may be coming.
by mpt follower
Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [100% Stock Allocation in Retirement]
Replies: 44
Views: 1498

Re: Stock Allocation in Retirement

By the way, you can find current PE10s for most countries and areas here:
http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation
by mpt follower
Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [100% Stock Allocation in Retirement]
Replies: 44
Views: 1498

Re: Stock Allocation in Retirement

As implied in one of the above responses, to prevent behavioral mistakes, it is probably best to put in some mental “guard rails” of a minimum and maximum stock allocation, and then be settled. Fellow Boglehead Rick Ferri has proposed a 30% stocks / 70% bond portfolio for retirees. Ferri wrote this...
by mpt follower
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: skiing after 70
Replies: 15
Views: 1600

Re: skiing after 70

On a related note, are there any snowboarders here who are age 60+? I see lots of older folks on the mountain skiing, but I don't think I've ever seen a 70 year old snowboarder. Maybe it's because skis have been around longer, but I'm wondering if there's also a physical component to it as well. To...
by mpt follower
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 20
Views: 1470

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

I have been a converter since early 2015 after I read all the research I could find. Thus, I have invested exclusively in low volatility equity ETFs. My global equity diversification is: 45% USMV (instead of SPY), 45% EFAV (instead of EFA), 10% EEMV (instead of EEM). And now during the current marke...
by mpt follower
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: skiing after 70
Replies: 15
Views: 1600

Re: skiing after 70

Why you ask? skiing is a sport for all ages as long as your body, specially your knees work. I am 67, not 70, but close. Ski (downhill) twice a year for a week, once in the France Alps in January (just came back from Tignes) and in Austria in March (it helps that i live in Israel, just 4 hours fligh...
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No guts to buy today!
Replies: 55
Views: 5244

Re: No guts to buy today!

it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation. mpt follower, Why not? The whole point of having an IPS is to take emotion out of those kind of decision. KlangFool It seems that I am being misunderstood. I have ...
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No guts to buy today!
Replies: 55
Views: 5244

Re: No guts to buy today!

gvsucavie03 wrote:
mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?


Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.


"Judgement" or "emotions"??


P/E
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No guts to buy today!
Replies: 55
Views: 5244

Re: No guts to buy today!

What does your IPS say you should do in times like these? Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement. Is that your answer to their question, your IPS says to use your judgement on days like this? Doesn't sound like that works too well for you most of the time. :wink: :happy It was not a ...
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No guts to buy today!
Replies: 55
Views: 5244

Re: No guts to buy today!

As of Friday I was down 3.99% and my equity/fixed ratio was off by 1%. So it will be a while until I have to do anything. In my experience following my plan has always turned out to be more profitable than trying to "judge" where the market is at any point in time. I'll take humble arithm...
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No guts to buy today!
Replies: 55
Views: 5244

Re: No guts to buy today!

dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?


Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No guts to buy today!
Replies: 55
Views: 5244

No guts to buy today!

I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
by mpt follower
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1109

Re: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

I would think if one is going to look at general approaches to risk vs return one would consider the portfolio as a whole rather than "work" bonds in isolation. Perhaps there are some situations where one is thinking only of the bonds one owns. Like if you are retired and must live out of...
by mpt follower
Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1109

Re: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

I would think if one is going to look at general approaches to risk vs return one would consider the portfolio as a whole rather than "work" bonds in isolation. Perhaps there are some situations where one is thinking only of the bonds one owns. Like if you are retired and must live out of...
by mpt follower
Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1109

Re: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

I would think if one is going to look at general approaches to risk vs return one would consider the portfolio as a whole rather than "work" bonds in isolation. Perhaps there are some situations where one is thinking only of the bonds one owns. Like if you are retired and must live out of...
by mpt follower
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1109

Re: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

Two things to consider: A. Wisdomtree picks bonds within the total bond market space, so the likelihood of defaults is minimal, if any. B. If risk is defined as volatility, than no doubt the total bond market is the way to go. But most people here are more sophisticated than that and look at investm...
by mpt follower
Sun Feb 07, 2016 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1109

Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

A neat WisdomTree idea that rearranges the Total Bond Index components to increase yield. It makes sense to me Please watch.... http://www.wisdomtree.com/snapshot/enhancing-yield-in-fixed-income-portfolios.aspx?elq=47442246c27e4c66af42e555e915412a&elqCampaignId=1644&elqaid=3618&elqat=1&a...
by mpt follower
Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Investing in a 2%World
Replies: 4
Views: 642

Re: Bond Investing in a 2%World

Faber email me that he will soon have an ETF on his bond research.
by mpt follower
Sat Feb 06, 2016 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Investing in a 2%World
Replies: 4
Views: 642

Re: Bond Investing in a 2%World

Avo wrote:If there isn't a fund or ETF implementing the strategy, I don't see how it's useful to the vast majority of us.


Right on. I emailed Faber asking whether he has in mind offering his ideas in an ETF. He has typically followed up with an ETF. Let you know
by mpt follower
Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Investing in a 2%World
Replies: 4
Views: 642

Bond Investing in a 2%World

A recent paper by Mebane Faber highlights the benefits of investing in a) sovereign bonds, b) globally, and c) using a value approach (sorting bonds based on yield). Faber claims that in the long term, by partially investing in foreign bonds, the investor can get higher Sharpe ratios (slightly highe...
by mpt follower
Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting towards oil
Replies: 18
Views: 1170

Tilting towards oil

I am retired but spent most of my working life In the Oil business (Shell, ConocoPhillips, etc.), and have a decent understanding of the dynamics of crude prices (if that is possible). My thoughts along with comments I heard in Bloomberg by T. Boone Pickens led me to believe that it is not a matter ...
by mpt follower
Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 546

Re: My portfolio

Snowjob wrote:Any desire to leave money to kids / charities?


I have only one child. I gave her free education, bought her an apartment when she married and we enjoy spoiling the grand children. Although at a minimum she will inherit some real estate, to me what we have already done is enough.
by mpt follower
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 546

Re: My portfolio

Are the ratios within each bucket going to stay roughly the same? Which would mean over time that your total stock allocation will decrease since your value of bucket 1 will stay roughly the same? Your plan looks good to me. My goal is to not rebalance, let bucket 2 move as needed to assure wife an...
by mpt follower
Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 546

My portfolio

At this time every year I review my portfolio. This year I have decided to ask your help. Please comment Age 67, married Retired Receiving SS and private pensions Zero liabilities Average Annual withdrawal from Portfolio 3.4% since retiring 11 years ago Portfolio: Bucket 1: living expenses for 13 ye...
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: which ETF or ISHARE are the best performing for oil
Replies: 12
Views: 724

Re: which ETF or ISHARE are the best performing for oil

First Ishares ARE ETFs. Then, what do you mean "best performing for oil"?? There are two ways to invest in oil via ETFs: either you invest in the commodity itself or in the O&G companies associated with oil. The top ETFs for each (in terms of $ invested through ETFs in Oil) are USO and...
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The last 15 years
Replies: 100
Views: 10457

Re: The last 15 years

In general the numbers look fine, but it all has depended on the entry point. Had I invested $10k in 2001, today I do not think that I would happy. Would you? So much volatility for 5%. I have not figured out what the total bond market would have done, but I suspect not much difference and with litt...
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing during retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1295

Re: Rebalancing during retirement

I do not rebalance in the traditional manner. My IPS (developed in 2015) calls for 40% in equities and 60% in fixed income and the following strategy: In IRA: Bucket 1 (to live from): 13 year TIPS ladder (now until age 80) that along SS/pensions meets my annual expenses. Bucket 2 (bonds): Vanguard ...
by mpt follower
Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing during retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1295

Re: Rebalancing during retirement

I do not rebalance in the traditional manner. My IPS (developed in 2015) calls for 40% in equities and 60% in fixed income and the following strategy: In IRA: Bucket 1 (to live from): 13 year TIPS ladder (now until age 80) that along SS/pensions meets my annual expenses. Bucket 2 (bonds): Vanguard I...
by mpt follower
Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tomorrows Market Open?
Replies: 37
Views: 4807

Re: Tomorrows Market Open?

The direction of futures in the morning is not a good predictor of the direction of the market later in the trading day. Performance of other markets today is likely an even worse predictor of this market tomorrow. I wonder how do you come to this conclusion? In the past weeks the leading driver of...
by mpt follower
Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tomorrows Market Open?
Replies: 37
Views: 4807

Re: Tomorrows Market Open?

Foreign markets have been down today but lightly. US market futures show tomorrow opening slightly down (<0.5%).
by mpt follower
Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buckets for a retiree?
Replies: 55
Views: 4758

Re: Buckets for a retiree?

Why do I sleep so very well.... My bucket portfolio: Bucket 1: 13 years (until age 80) - combination of CDs and TIPS (45% of portfolio). This ladder plus pensions and SS fully cover our annual expenses. Bucket 2: Vanguard intermediate corporate bond fund (15% of portfolio) Bucket 3: 4 equity funds d...
by mpt follower
Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how long can a car last?
Replies: 26
Views: 2063

how long can a car last?

We just gave our daughter my wife's 7 year old Toyota Corolla. The car was driven little (30,000 miles) and seems in perfect conditions (have changed tires and battery and done a brake job, but nothing else).
How many years (since it will continue to not be driven much) can it last?
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??
Replies: 92
Views: 7583

Re: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??

I'm newly retired, too (less than a year) but I'm not losing any sleep. I like my 3-fund IRA, I like my allocations (45 B/45 S/10 I), and I have two year's living expenses in cash, so right now there's nothing to do but sit back and relax. 2 years seems to me a bit too little. Looking back at previ...
by mpt follower
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?
Replies: 39
Views: 3882

Re: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?

A problem I see with using actual buckets is that it would seem you would have to move money from longer range buckets into mid or shorter range buckets periodically. People sometimes slap their head with the idea of just rebalancing a handful of funds -- I would imagine they would tend to have a s...
by mpt follower
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 29 and quitting job for long honeymoon. Is it a bad idea? Talk me out of it
Replies: 70
Views: 5896

Re: 29 and quitting job for long honeymoon. Is it a bad idea? Talk me out of it

Hello all, I am asking advice on the idea me and my fiance have come up with for this once in a lifetime opportunity. We are set to get married on May 21st and want to take an extended honeymoon. We would like to backpack across Europe for ~50 days (possibly do a Contiki travel tour for part of the...
by mpt follower
Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 90
Views: 10652

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

This thread got me exploring. Another reason for the low valuation is that the fund is 93.5% foreign. The U.S. Dollar is crazy-strong right now. So this fund has the potential for a big gain just on FOREX. I am intrigued at these prices... I am reading Bernstein's "Four Pillars" and he hi...
by mpt follower
Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buenos Aires trip advice
Replies: 14
Views: 902

Re: Buenos Aires trip advice

The city that used to be. Today a mess. Delapidated, full of pocket pickers. However, good food and if you are a walker, a great city to see through one of the companies that offer walking guided tours. Check at the hotel. Do not change your dollars at the bank. If you staying in a respectable hotel...
by mpt follower
Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?
Replies: 39
Views: 3882

Re: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?

I am retiring on 2/29/16. I have a pension and social security that cover my expenses, visiting the grandchildren, and life in general, but not a fancy European vacation or other extensive travel and exploration. An advisor has suggested to me the following: Years 1-5 Bucket 1 - 20% in CDs through ...
by mpt follower
Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 8950

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

I would not be happy if my $10,000 1/12/99 investment in VGTSX is only worth $17,538.77 today. Not only this is nominal, but also what about taxes on dividends and unrealized capital gains!!
by mpt follower
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual bonds- How does a broker make money
Replies: 8
Views: 431

Re: Individual bonds- How does a broker make money

Their profit is the spread between buy and sell. Further, the bond market is inefficient, meaning it is not an open market like stocks, except maybe treasuries that have a huge demand and their prices are widely absilable. Each broker sets his own prices, thus, one must shop around. It is highly una...
by mpt follower
Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA withdrawal question
Replies: 2
Views: 222

Re: IRA withdrawal question

Thank you Alan. I got it!
by mpt follower
Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA withdrawal question
Replies: 2
Views: 222

IRA withdrawal question

I know that I must begin my RMD from my IRA no later than April 1 of the year following the year when I turn 70 1/2. My question is the following: if for some reason I make withdrawals prior to this date, in previous years, do they count towards the sum that I have to withdraw on the April 1 mention...
by mpt follower
Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7306

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

How many years of performance are sufficient to make judgements about the returns? I suspect the academics would require a lot more than 15 years . I think it's important to understand what the academics believe about small cap value vs. S&P 500 returns. First, they make no predictions about ho...
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7306

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

It is not always a matter of discipline. As I stated in my earlier text, not everybody can afford to wait for SV to show fruits. What is someone in retirement, like me, with potentially another 20 years max of investing years ahead, supposed to do? Hope that the "very long term" that you ...
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7306

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

It is not always a matter of discipline. As I stated in my earlier text, not everybody can afford to wait for SV to show fruits. What is someone in retirement, like me, with potentially another 20 years max of investing years ahead, supposed to do? Hope that the "very long term" that you ...
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7306

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Robert T has a sophisticated factor investing approach and sticks with it through thick and thin. He is very likely to be rewarded in the very long term, however long that is. Most of us have a less sophisticated approach to factor investing and lack the patience to hold on for a decade or more of ...
by mpt follower
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7306

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

"In 1958, Nobel economist James Tobin discovered that while there are many portfolios out there in portfolioland, there is only one super-efficient portfolio that cannot be improved upon.  It sits on a knife edge where any change you make is a change for the worse, delivering poorer returns fo...
by mpt follower
Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7306

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Larry, It is not my intention to dispute your views, I have followed your work and read some of your books, and I am fully aware of your vast knowledge, but you must agree that there are more than one opinion on the subject. Without getting into the details of the academic work of Tobin and Sharpe, ...

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