Search found 103 matches

by mikeguima
Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dangers of a Broker
Replies: 7
Views: 1113

Re: Dangers of a Broker

Right. I'm in Europe (not in the Netherlands though) and I use DeGiro. It's much cheaper than any other broker in my country. Each broker holds the ETFs of their clients in a separate holding company so if they went bankrupt no-one could claim their assets. So yeah it would be a matter of transferri...
by mikeguima
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dangers of a Broker
Replies: 7
Views: 1113

Dangers of a Broker

Hi everyone! I'd like to ask you guys opinion on something. So, when choosing a broker to buy my ETFs, I had the choice of normal, more expensive brokers, and one discount broker, which is around 10x cheaper than the average "normal" broker. Given that they charge so little, I started wondering whet...
by mikeguima
Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3150

Re: Gold ETF

I have it in coin so there is a perpetual put option. Why a perpetual put option? Regarding buying the gold itself, I reckon that 1) from 0.4% to 3% it's a very big difference and 2) storage costs and inconveniences wouldn't be great. But I might very well buy a little physically and put the rest i...
by mikeguima
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3150

Re: Gold ETF

You'e all made excellent points! Than you for that. If you believe that it is just a fluctuating asset no different in kind from any other--silver, real estate, peer-to-peer lending contracts--but that you are convinced that you like the past, and what you see as the future fluctuations, than an ETF...
by mikeguima
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3150

Gold ETF

Hi everyone, After having finally decided that Gold as an asset does belong into my portfolio (took me a while to make this decision), I'm now considering how I can hold it. I was thinking of doing so through an ETF, but I have one question: does the ETF provider actually own the gold (so that my pa...
by mikeguima
Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity ("The Problem with the Traditional Approach to Asset Allocation") - Question
Replies: 3
Views: 568

Risk Parity ("The Problem with the Traditional Approach to Asset Allocation") - Question

Hey everyone, I was reading this article by Bridgewater (a very recommended reading, by the way: https://www.bridgewater.com/resources/risk-parity-is-about-balance.pdf) and I couldn't understand the graph labeled "Rolling 3-Year Returns (Without Risk Premium)". Below it it says: "Rising growth repre...
by mikeguima
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broker and Short Selling
Replies: 13
Views: 853

Re: Broker and Short Selling

Thanks for the reply!

For the record, I live in Europe and my broker is Dutch, so I don't know if that SPIC applies. And they're an execution only broker. From my understanding, Lehman did a lot more than simple execution.

But I'm glad to hear it's safe! :D
by mikeguima
Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broker and Short Selling
Replies: 13
Views: 853

Broker and Short Selling

Hey everyone! My broker's default account entails that short selling with my assets is allowed by other investors. The broker says that if the short seller is missing deposits (margin, I presume), the position will be closed and that whenever I want to sell my assets the broker will take the other p...
by mikeguima
Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings rate: gross or net?
Replies: 56
Views: 3648

Savings rate: gross or net?

Hey everyone! I posted this in the other thread about each one's personall savings rate but since it was a relatively different subject, I'll (re)post the question here: " Save 10% and you'll be fine Save 20% and you'll thrive Save 30% and you'll be wealthy Sounds awesome! :D One major doubt I have ...
by mikeguima
Thu Jul 27, 2017 5:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your personal savings rate?
Replies: 135
Views: 12336

Re: What's your personal savings rate?

Save 10% and you'll be fine Save 20% and you'll thrive Save 30% and you'll be wealthy Sounds awesome! :D One major doubt I have is if most recommended savings rate are in function of gross income or after-tax income. In the Bogleheads book it has an example of at least 10% of take-home pay (which I...
by mikeguima
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 39
Views: 4274

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

Sorry for digging an old topic, but I've been looking into this issue (relevance of real assets) for some time and reached the (personal) conclusion that yes, real assets should be considered in addition to stocks, bonds and cash as a 4th asset class that should be in any good diversified portfolio....
by mikeguima
Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly
Replies: 14
Views: 1906

Re: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly

I am not a fan of long term bonds. I want stability from the bond side, but LT bonds can fluctuate dramatically depending on interest rates. I also do not think the 10% TIPS is enough to truly protect you from inflation, if that is a concern. Consider something like: 20% TIPS 30% Intermediate Bond ...
by mikeguima
Sat Jul 15, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly
Replies: 14
Views: 1906

The Modified (Golden) Butterfly

Hello everyone, I came across Tyler's excellent website a year ago and could not help to be drawn to the pratical representations of asset and portfolio performance he offers there. Naturally, while browsing his website, I came across his Golden Butterfly portfolio and was instantly sold, more so by...
by mikeguima
Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 4705

Re: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio

Thanks for the replies, guys! Regarding cash vs bonds, it's somewhat irrelevant to what I proposed. It could be bonds instead of cash, the point was using a safer asset in times of crisis to finance the purchase of a riskier asset in the market bottom. Regarding that, do you guys know of any study t...
by mikeguima
Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 4705

50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio

Hey fellow Bogleheads! In the process of studying risk manegement and the importance of financial flexibility, namely cash holdings for opportunistic investments and cushion in volatile sectors, it ocurred to me the idea to use the same concept in investing. The first idea that came to my mind was r...
by mikeguima
Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic Conditions: How Often do They Happen?
Replies: 5
Views: 916

Re: Economic Contitions: How Often do They Happen?

Inspired by your graphs, I did a little manual research and this is what I gathered for some of the most important economies: Duration of Economic Conditions Prosperity vs Recession (US) 70% 1926- Prosperity vs Recession (Germany) 75% 1970- Prosperity vs Recession (France) 90% 1949- Prosperity vs Re...
by mikeguima
Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic Conditions: How Often do They Happen?
Replies: 5
Views: 916

Economic Conditions: How Often do They Happen?

Hello everyone! I've been enthusiastically reading about how different assets perform under different conditions, inspired by Ray Dalio's All Weather approach as well as the Permanent Portfolio, both of which propose that a good portfolio should be one that performs relatively well in all economic c...
by mikeguima
Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8369

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

First, I'd recommend checking out from the library a copy of David Swensen's, Unconventional Success, and turning to Chapter 2 page 66 and reading the section of real estate. [...] Admittedly extremely stale data... One challenge with most (all?) popular investing books is they don't tie back to fa...
by mikeguima
Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if the fund provider goes bankrupt?
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

Re: What happens if the fund provider goes bankrupt?

By the way, individual mutual funds get terminated all the time, and since the usual reason is that they aren't making money for the fund company, that's somewhat like going bankrupt. It's a minor nuisance for the fund shareholder, because by far the most common result is that the fund is merged in...
by mikeguima
Sun Jul 02, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if the fund provider goes bankrupt?
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

Re: What happens if the fund provider goes bankrupt?

So, to make things clearer: if I buy an ETF through a broker and it goes bust, I still own the ETF and it only has to be transfered to another broker; if the company to which the ETF belongs to (Vanguard, Blackrock,...) goes bust, I still own the assets in the fund and so those assets just have to b...
by mikeguima
Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if the fund provider goes bankrupt?
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

What happens if the fund provider goes bankrupt?

Hello everyone, So, lately I've been trying to get a better idea of the safety of my investments and the probability of losing them. I invest in ETFs through a broker and, as far as I could understand until now, if the broker goes bankrupt, my investments are safe because they're still in my posessi...
by mikeguima
Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One fund, the whole stock market, why not?
Replies: 15
Views: 1466

Re: One fund, the whole stock market, why not?

United States. If someone can point me to a total world bond fund (USD hedged for the international portion) or a total world real estate (REIT) ETF, I'm interested -- assuming the expense ratios and bid/ask spreads are reasonable. My preference for ETFs is due to potential future changes, I don''t...
by mikeguima
Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One fund, the whole stock market, why not?
Replies: 15
Views: 1466

Re: One fund, the whole stock market, why not?

The trade-off your guys describe is one I considered: less funds vs more funds and better control and lower expenses. That said, I figured managing the allocation to different classes is more important than manageing allocations within a class. Do you guys think a 0.40% expense ratio is reasonable? ...
by mikeguima
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One fund, the whole stock market, why not?
Replies: 15
Views: 1466

One fund, the whole stock market, why not?

Hey fellow Bogleheads! I'm in the process of simplifying my whole portfolio (particularly inspired by Taylor Larimore's collection of quotes on the simplicity of investments) and therefore looking to have just one fund for each of the 4 main asset classes I'm planning to invest in (stocks, real esta...
by mikeguima
Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8369

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

" At the end of the day, REITs are equities, and as such are represented in most broadly diversified equity funds. For example, as of December 2010, REITs accounted for just over 1% of the broad U.S. stock market. The reality is that any additional allocation to REITs can represent a significant ove...
by mikeguima
Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8369

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

"A REIT is a terrible representation of Real Estate investing in general. There, I said it. REITs were created by Congress in order to give all investors the opportunity to invest in large-scale, diversified portfolios of income-producing real estate. The REIT structure was designed to provide a rea...
by mikeguima
Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8369

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

Amazing posts here.

What % of real estate do you guys recommend either as a % of total portfolio value or as a % of the riskier portion of the portfolio (alongside stocks; ex: 20% RE, 80% stocks)?
by mikeguima
Wed May 31, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8369

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

Lot's of great feedback here, guys. From what I've seen online, some investors use debt to buy properties and to actually get a higher ROE, much like with a company, and get great ROI that way. I actually remember reading Rish Dad, Poor Dad and his talk about infinite returns if one manages to fund ...
by mikeguima
Sun May 28, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8369

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

I worked in Commercial RE for many years with Private Equity owners. Investing directly in commercial RE (retail, apartments, office, industrial storage) is a business, a full time job and you better know what you are doing or you will get crushed. Many of the smaller private equity RE groups will ...
by mikeguima
Sun May 28, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8369

Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

Hey guys, The more i read about real estate, be it here or in other sources, the more fond I grow of it as a complement to stocks in a risky portfolio of assets. However, recently I've been trying to understand the advantages of direct RE investment (i.e actually buying buildings and then refurbish,...
by mikeguima
Sun May 21, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing
Replies: 13
Views: 1096

Re: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing

nisiprius, Regarding stock, what confuses me is the following: imagine you have a stock that because of any other reason other than changes in fundamentals becomes overvalued (i know value can change a lot depending on each investors' perspective, but lets assume it is a fixed number or a range of n...
by mikeguima
Sun May 21, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing
Replies: 13
Views: 1096

Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing

Hello everyone, I undertand that from an efficient markets point of view, the efficient portfolio is the market, value weighted portfolio. However, it bugs my mind that a pro-cyclical portfolio such as that (meaning it gives more weight to the assets that go up in price, less weight to those that go...
by mikeguima
Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Size and Liquidity
Replies: 6
Views: 845

Re: ETF Size and Liquidity

Sorry I didn't say, I'm not American, I'm European :)

JustETF classifies ETFs under €100Mn in AUM as riskier, but I would like to understand the real risk associated with lack of AUM better, provided I'm not trading, I'm just buying it periodically (maybe 4 transcations per year, all buys).
by mikeguima
Sat Mar 04, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Size and Liquidity
Replies: 6
Views: 845

Re: ETF Size and Liquidity

My goal with value (or preferably, value small cap) is to capture the return of these anomalies over the long term. I'm aware they might take a long time to pay off, but the again I'm investing in stocks for 10+ years. About value disappearing after being revealed, I wouldn't be so sure precisely be...
by mikeguima
Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 21906

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

I was wondering what the international allocation to Real Estate and Private Equity is, since I hold world portfolios and would like to apply the same reasoning to the worl. Does anybody have a hint of those percentages?
by mikeguima
Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.
Replies: 17
Views: 2022

Re: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.

I've been thinking of trying to implement a similar thing, but using DCF based internal returns instead of CAPE, a bit like damodaran does to compute the implied risk premiums. Just take current price, estimate future cash flows and compute the internal rate of return, which is the expected rate of ...
by mikeguima
Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Size and Liquidity
Replies: 6
Views: 845

ETF Size and Liquidity

Hey guys! So, I was wondering what you think should be paid attention to regarding ETF size and liquidity. I'm currently contemplating a fund targeting Europe SCV (m) which only has €60 Mn AUM, to complment my portfolio of world developed stocks and emerging market stocks. Do you find that to be too...
by mikeguima
Sat Feb 18, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real vs Nominal Yield
Replies: 2
Views: 330

Real vs Nominal Yield

Hey guys! So, I was reading Bernstein's excellent "If You Can", in which he mentions the expected real stock returns for the US, for instance, are 2% dividend yield + 1.5% dividend growth (3.5%). However, the factor that he mentions the current dividend yield is expressed in real terms got...
by mikeguima
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation does not matter (may be)
Replies: 55
Views: 4861

Re: Valuation does not matter (may be)

will, fwiw, IMO that 1% figure is crazy wrong. Not even close to reality. And the people I talk to at high levels in the field would agree. The ERP has historically ben 1%. I don't know anyone who thinks it is now 7% Stocks historically have returned about 7% real and most I talk to think somewhere...
by mikeguima
Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of Domicile?
Replies: 4
Views: 811

Re: Importance of Domicile?

Thanks a lot!
So, in a nutshell, 2 differences:
1. Taxation
2. All US funds are distributing while European can be accumulating.

That's it?
by mikeguima
Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Smart Beta does not deliver Better Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 3734

Re: Bogle: Smart Beta does not deliver Better Returns

I believe it's the exact opposite.... Several anomalies have been identified in the literature, i.e., strategies providing higher risk-adjusted returns. Value, Size and Momentum are likely the strongest and most well known. Interestingly, the fact they're the most well known should mean they'd be qu...
by mikeguima
Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of Domicile?
Replies: 4
Views: 811

Importance of Domicile?

Hi!

Can anybody enlighten me on the importante of fund domicile? I'm an European investor, should I give preference to Europe domiciled funds rather than US domiciled funds?

Thanks!
by mikeguima
Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal allocation based on holding period
Replies: 5
Views: 706

Re: Optimal allocation based on holding period

I'll KISS. Boglehead style. 0-1 yr: 100% cash 1-5 yr: 100% CD 5-10yr: 100% TBM >10 yr: 100% TWSM Tilt, slice, and dice to your personal tastes. TBM = total bond market. TWSM = total world stock market. I enjoy the simplicity I'm actually doing something similar, but I won't use a single asset for e...
by mikeguima
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal allocation based on holding period
Replies: 5
Views: 706

Optimal allocation based on holding period

Hey Bogleheads.

Just wanted to ask if any of you know of any study (either academic or professional, such as by Vanguard, ...) done on the optimal allocation (historical, of course) based on holding period/ investment horizon.

Thanks!
by mikeguima
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Asset Allocation - Stock vs Bond Yield
Replies: 10
Views: 1001

Re: Active Asset Allocation - Stock vs Bond Yield

Just revisiting this thread because I found this video of Bogle by which he seems to consider market valuations (through yields) in forecasting future market returns: m Meanhwile, I've reread what I originaly wrote and while maybe basing allocation entirely on yields and differential yields is proba...
by mikeguima
Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 2293

Re: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation

So you use your emergency fund to fund current expenses, as if it were a cash account? The role of the fund shouldn't be for emergency expenses only? Let's say I have an emergency fund and want to buy a car this year. I wouldn't tap into the fund. Instead, I could have my investments already set up...
by mikeguima
Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 2293

Re: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation

So you use your emergency fund to fund current expenses, as if it were a cash account? The role of the fund shouldn't be for emergency expenses only? Let's say I have an emergency fund and want to buy a car this year. I wouldn't tap into the fund. Instead, I could have my investments already set up ...
by mikeguima
Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Future Low Returns
Replies: 49
Views: 4988

Re: Expected Future Low Returns

On the topic of economic growth and stock market performance, like I've said before, I've never tested it, but I would argue a causal relationship would make sense, since private investment comprises a good part of GDP and stock prices also reflect corporate performance, then there could be a causal...
by mikeguima
Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 2293

Re: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation

Hey Klang!

It's not 3 portfolios. It's one portfolio whose % are calculated by allocating X amount to each of those "sub portfolios". See my previous post for that :happy
by mikeguima
Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Future Low Returns
Replies: 49
Views: 4988

Re: Expected Future Low Returns

In the Google example, a higher price would only mean that the company is expected to produce more cash flows if first, every single investor that invested in Google had an idea of the value of the company and second, every single one of them invested according to that perceived value. In that inst...