Search found 5720 matches

by market timer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bay Area housing
Replies: 69
Views: 5215

Re: Bay Area housing

Image

My gut says we are near peak Nasdaq / tech employment / Bay Area housing. If I were living in San Francisco, I'd rent. If I were working for Facebook or Google, I'd hedge my RSUs.
by market timer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2371
Views: 722793

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

American Kingpin: The Epic Hunt for the Criminal Mastermind Behind the Silk Road, by Nick Bilton.

The story of Ross Ulbricht, now serving a life sentence for drug trafficking. Highly recommended
by market timer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood
Replies: 74
Views: 4249

Re: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood

I don't really see the dilemma here. You have plenty of money and seem happy with your jobs. You can afford to outsource most child care duties, if you want to focus on work after having children. I think the question is really whether you want kids--it's not financial or occupational. Day-to-day mi...
by market timer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 6592

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

I feel like I missed out on working at companies like AMZN, FB, and GOOG. Despite being household names, these companies were not even on my radar as potential employers when I was looking for my first job 10 years ago. However, my background and personality are perfectly suited for tech. So, while ...
by market timer
Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying first class, business, versus economy.
Replies: 105
Views: 6851

Re: Flying first class, business, versus economy.

I usually fly business on trans-Pacific flights. In my view, most of the value comes from being able to sleep in business. If I can travel during hours I'd normally be awake, economy or premium economy is doable, even on fairly long haul flights. One solution worth considering when traveling with fa...
by market timer
Fri May 19, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help about put option I sold!
Replies: 6
Views: 817

Re: Need help about put option I sold!

Your options expire tomorrow. Today is the last day they are traded. Expect to have 400 shares in your account tomorrow or Monday morning at the latest.
by market timer
Tue May 02, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to Live on $60K or Less a Year?
Replies: 248
Views: 26069

Re: Where to Live on $60K or Less a Year?

You haven't mentioned anything about children. Are they part of the calculus? I plan to do a similar calculation in about 10-15 years with kids who would be in high school, returning to the US after a long time overseas. My ideal location would be a college town so my kids have access to the researc...
by market timer
Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2371
Views: 722793

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Disaster Artist: My Life Inside The Room, the Greatest Bad Movie Ever Made , by Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell. Amazon blurb: From the actor who somehow lived through it all, a “sharply detailed…funny book about a cinematic comedy of errors” (The New York Times): the making of the cult film pheno...
by market timer
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

The EE bonds are used to eventually unwind the leverage. Without them the leverage would greatly increase long term risk. There was a thread recently about retiring with up to 100% stocks and just borrowing to spend during a downturn. That's different than borrowing against EE bonds, even if you ar...
by market timer
Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

The way to solve this is to short sell a 10-year Treasury, which is effectively borrowing at the 10-year rate and lending at the overnight rate. This is balance sheet neutral vs. selling EE bonds to buy a Mercedes. No it's not. You would actually have to borrow and sell a bond which had the same st...
by market timer
Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Yes, if you want to sell EE bonds synthetically after 10 years without really selling them, you would need to short Treasuries of comparable duration. On this short position, you would earn interest, which could be used to pay for short term borrowing costs to fund consumption spending until EE bon...
by market timer
Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

If you would like to sell bonds and use the money for consumption, I would suggest shorting Treasuries (to reduce duration) and borrowing from other investments. Right, the scenario is something like I have lost my job in deflationary event 10 years into owning the EE bonds. I need to sell some of ...
by market timer
Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I'm assuming your trade in 10 years is to sell $100-150K of 10-year Treasuries and buy $100-150K of the S&P 500. How does this give me more money to use during the deflationary event? Sorry, I thought you had in mind a plan to sell the bonds and reinvest in equities. If you would like to sell b...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I would argue that you can do this synthetically with EE bonds by short selling Treasury futures and going long S&P 500 futures, while continuing to hold the EE bonds until they double. I believe the potential to construct this type of swap makes liquidity a non-issue for EE bonds. Walk me thro...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

In either case, they offer better optionality than typical long term bonds. That makes no sense to me. A typical long bond holder can also just hold them to maturity. Or they can sell them at any time, and keep all the interest to date. Unlike with EE bonds, doing so will not trigger a severe early...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

1. Optionality: I can redeem my EE bonds if interest rates go up. It's like owning a 3.5% 20-year Treasury with a free put option. But you lose the 3.5% if you redeem them early. It's more like owning a 20-year CD with a severe withdrawal penalty. Sure, you could also view EE bonds as 20-year CDs w...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 18717

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

It's a long thread already, so here's my two cents: 1. Optionality: I can redeem my EE bonds if interest rates go up. It's like owning a 3.5% 20-year Treasury with a free put option. 2. Tax deferral / reduction: I'm in the 33% bracket now, but expect to have some years in the 0-15% bracket during ea...
by market timer
Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV show recommendations?
Replies: 506
Views: 198838

Re: TV show recommendations?

Currently on Netflix:

Rick & Morty
Peep Show
Black Mirror
Better Call Saul
by market timer
Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What constitutes "a lot" of money?
Replies: 81
Views: 11508

Re: What constitutes "a lot" of money?

I tend to ignore my portfolio's fluctuations and think about spending in terms of additional work-hours. One of my splurges is buying business class tickets instead of economy for long haul flights for myself and my family. I'll usually calculate how many extra days I'd have to work to pay for the c...
by market timer
Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529/son got accepted to medical school whahoooo!
Replies: 30
Views: 3465

Re: 529/son got accepted to medical school whahoooo!

With 0-4 years until the money is spent, use cash or a short term bond fund.
by market timer
Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2715
Views: 764270

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara (2003) Watched this on Netflix. I knew nothing of McNamara before watching this documentary. He had a fascinating life. The documentary mostly covers the time period from his role in the Tokyo fire bombings in WW2 to the Vietnam War...
by market timer
Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Stages of Retirement Saving
Replies: 55
Views: 10677

Re: The Stages of Retirement Saving

Rodc and market timer, Help me understand your points. How is the Phase 1.5 you inserted in RosieQ's OP scale different from her Phase 2? In net worth terms, Phase 1.5: $500-800K Phase 2: $2-3mn In work terms, Phase 1.5: Dreading Monday morning on Sunday afternoon? Why not go teach English in Japan...
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to slow down.
Replies: 33
Views: 5449

Re: When to slow down.

In my view, working 80 hours per week is not sustainable. Rather than work at a grocery store, why not try independent contract work on the weekends? The hourly pay should be much higher than working at the grocery store, and if business picks up, you could start a small business with more upside.
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?
Replies: 113
Views: 11321

Re: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?

You can deduct mileage/travel to visit the properties which can be big if one is conveniently located at your favorite travel destination. Are there any guidelines on this? I'd be tempted to buy rentals near my parents if I could legitimately expense the airfare, which runs over $10K/trip for my fa...
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Stages of Retirement Saving
Replies: 55
Views: 10677

Re: The Stages of Retirement Saving

I think there is a 1.5: enough to eek out a retirement NOW, perhaps with some low income part-time job if worst came to worst. This is the point at which you know you will almost certainly never live under a bridge (or your kids basement). After this it only gets better and better. With an other co...
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?
Replies: 113
Views: 11321

Re: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?

You can deduct mileage/travel to visit the properties which can be big if one is conveniently located at your favorite travel destination. Are there any guidelines on this? I'd be tempted to buy rentals near my parents if I could legitimately expense the airfare, which runs over $10K/trip for my fa...
by market timer
Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?
Replies: 88
Views: 4670

Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

I made it just past the first bend point before leaving the US. When combined with the 50% bump for my wife, SS projects I'll get close to $20K/year at age 67. I expect something in this vicinity, a very nice ROI on my contributions.
by market timer
Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 6663

Re: an in depth look at gold

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:To give a brief analogy--I happen to be 45.

Welcome to Bogleheads, NiceUnparticularMan! I think many lawyers in their late 30s - early 40s would recognize your moniker. I remember discussing law school applications and philosophy with you back in 2001 on PR. You were a top quality poster.
by market timer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2371
Views: 722793

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I have not gotten over the fact that Knausgaard chose to use the name of one of the world's great works of evil. There is no doubt some irony in there, somewhere, that is present in the book? I'm halfway through the book and see no allusions to Nazism. So far, the book seems overhyped, unfortunatel...
by market timer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Massive Student Loan Debt - Girlfriend
Replies: 86
Views: 7690

Re: Massive Student Loan Debt - Girlfriend

I expect PSLF will be around in 7 years and forgiving hundreds of billions of dollars in debt. If she stays single, she'll have no trouble financially. If she gets married, it's possible her husband's income will be considered to determine forgiveness eligibility or repayment amount. The safest opti...
by market timer
Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My son wants to move to Hong Kong
Replies: 35
Views: 4899

Re: My son wants to move to Hong Kong

2. SUPER IMPORTANT - he needs to get a job before he goes - unless his GF's family is well-connected and can get him a job once he gets there. It may seem easier to just land there and go job-hunting, but because of the uncertain visa status and lack of flexibility, it's better to find a job while ...
by market timer
Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2371
Views: 722793

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

My Struggle: Book 1 , by Knausgaard. Amazon blurb: Karl Ove Knausgaard writes about his life with painful honesty. He writes about his childhood and teenage years, his infatuation with rock music, his relationship with his loving yet almost invisible mother and his distant and unpredictable father,...
by market timer
Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2715
Views: 764270

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Handmaiden. A Korean film from the director of Oldboy, one of my favorite films of all time. This is so far my favorite film from 2016. It's an erotic psychological thriller set during the Japanese occupation of Korea.
by market timer
Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2715
Views: 764270

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Saw Manchester by the Sea. Didn't really do much for me. Kind of tired of the theme of working class self-destruction. People praise the acting, but it felt off to me. The flashbacks were jarring. Not a bad movie, just a bit overhyped, in my opinion.
by market timer
Sun Mar 05, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Poll: For those 20 yrs away from retirement, what is your current asset allocation and future changes?
Replies: 33
Views: 2084

Re: Poll: For those 20 yrs away from retirement, what is your current asset allocation and future changes?

50% cash 35% LT bonds 7% real estate (primary residence) 5% gold 3% oil It's possible I'm too pessimistic. We plan to use some of the cash to buy or build a nicer house or two. For now, I keep transferring 80% of my paycheck to cash savings (spending the other 20%), for lack of a more attractive opp...
by market timer
Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy a house? But there's a student loan elephant in the room
Replies: 21
Views: 1792

Re: Buy a house? But there's a student loan elephant in the room

Wow, these loan numbers are shocking to me. If I were in your situation, I'd be looking exclusively for jobs that qualify for PSLF and require 30-35 hours of work per week, then either enjoy the easy life or do a startup on the side.
by market timer
Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treating I-Bonds as Long-term Bond Holdings
Replies: 19
Views: 2253

Re: Treating I-Bonds as Long-term Bond Holdings

What does it mean to "treat" I bonds as LT bond holdings? I bonds are different from most bonds in that they cannot be traded. This means the value to the holder is not simply the market value or today's redemption value. We've had several discussions on this topic over the years that migh...
by market timer
Thu Mar 02, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are the big things to get right?
Replies: 91
Views: 12862

Re: What are the big things to get right?

Lots of good ideas already mentioned. Personally, I'm more in line with the people who say it's better to focus on earning more money than worrying about lattes. Practically, this means having the right skill set for your profession, a good network, integrity, adaptiveness, and a bit of risk taking....
by market timer
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 1155

Re: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?

The main reason Japanese GDP growth seems low relative to other developed markets is negative population growth. Per capita GDP growth is in line with other markets.
by market timer
Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do you go to restaurants?
Replies: 229
Views: 17513

Re: Why do you go to restaurants?

We dine out every meal mainly because of convenience, but also to enjoy diverse cuisines. I've typically lived in cities with many good restaurants accessible by foot on my commute home. If I had to make a special trip and drive to get to a restaurant, or if I were a stay-at-home dad, I'd probably c...
by market timer
Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Undoing Project," by Michael Lewis
Replies: 19
Views: 4404

Re: "The Undoing Project," by Michael Lewis

What is the best order to read Thinking Fast and Slow and The Undoing Project? I have them both on my Kindle.
by market timer
Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any books really change your outlook on life?
Replies: 280
Views: 44965

Re: Any books really change your outlook on life?

The Most Instructive Games of Chess Ever Played: 62 Masterpieces of Chess Strategy , by Irving Chernev This was the first chess book I ever read. Chernev has a passion for the game that comes through in his writing. I became an avid player and student of the game after reading this book. Molecular ...
by market timer
Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2715
Views: 764270

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Will try to catch most of the Best Picture nominees in the theater this month. Recently watched Arrival, Lion, and La La Land. All were pretty good--preferred La La Land of these three.
by market timer
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2371
Views: 722793

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Freedom , by Franzen. This is the 3rd Franzen novel I've read. They're all very good. Here is the Amazon blurb: This is the story of the Berglunds, their son Joey, their daughter Jessica and their friend Richard Katz. It is about how we use and abuse our freedom; about the beginning and ending of l...
by market timer
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Vacation Budget
Replies: 320
Views: 26237

Re: Annual Vacation Budget

I have to travel regularly for work and my wife will often join. Her airfare alone is around $10K/year. We spend several long weekends at resorts throughout the year, perhaps another $3K. Once my children are a bit older and taking longer flights with us, I expect our travel budget to increase subs...
by market timer
Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Vacation Budget
Replies: 320
Views: 26237

Re: Annual Vacation Budget

I have to travel regularly for work and my wife will often join. Her airfare alone is around $10K/year. We spend several long weekends at resorts throughout the year, perhaps another $3K. Once my children are a bit older and taking longer flights with us, I expect our travel budget to increase subst...
by market timer
Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Financial Moves You've Made
Replies: 141
Views: 18007

Re: Best Financial Moves You've Made

1. Got a good education, never earned less than $175K/year
2. Wife and I established our careers and saved >$1mn before having kids (in mid 30s)
by market timer
Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What monetary value has your education provided you?
Replies: 107
Views: 6436

Re: What monetary value has your education provided you?

The AA degree is now what a HS diploma was way back in the middle of the last century. Necessary to get more than minimum wage. So where does it all stop? If 80% have a degree a degree becomes less valuable. I know the diploma mills that live off student loans want everybody to stay in school for a...
by market timer
Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing in a Masters and Ph.D?
Replies: 101
Views: 5827

Re: Investing in a Masters and Ph.D?

To play the devil's advocate, I don't think it would be such a bad thing to view the PhD purely as a consumption good. Don't aim for an academic job, which is likely not in the cards. Instead, start your retirement now. Borrow up to your cost of attendance, including living allowance. Usually, the s...
by market timer
Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 30402

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

I walked away from a job I didn't enjoy with $700K and a paid off house.

Now I work a job I enjoy and would only walk away to do something entrepreneurial with $5mn. I prefer an intellectually stimulating job with reasonable work hours to retirement.

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