Search found 5740 matches

by market timer
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of hotel do you get on business travel?
Replies: 45
Views: 3171

Re: What kind of hotel do you get on business travel?

If I'm traveling alone, I'll usually book a 4-star hotel in the business district, but don't focus on amenities.

If I'm with family, I'll upgrade a bit, look for amenities like a pool, and pick a location better suited to tourists. These hotels are usually in the Grand Hyatt / InterContinental range.
by market timer
Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Big Decisions
Replies: 6
Views: 883

Re: Big Decisions

If I were in your situation, I'd probably sell or hedge most of the company equity now to diversify, continue working and renting for at least 18 months, then consider retiring outside of the SF Bay area. It seems a waste to buy a house in SF and retire shortly after that. You're paying a premium to...
by market timer
Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What determines the shape of the yield curve?
Replies: 43
Views: 2791

Re: What determines the shape of the yield curve?

The short answer is that the yield curve is based on expectations about what short term rates will do. For example, if the 1-year yield is 1% and the 2-year yield is 2%, then the market expects the overnight rate to average 1% in year 1 and 3% in year 2.
by market timer
Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2524
Views: 799143

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Three-Body Problem (Remembrance of Earth's Past) , by Cixin Liu. Amazon blurb: Set against the backdrop of China's Cultural Revolution, a secret military project sends signals into space to establish contact with aliens. An alien civilization on the brink of destruction captures the signal and ...
by market timer
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your "at peace" moments.
Replies: 98
Views: 11140

Re: Your "at peace" moments.

Interesting topic. I'm far on the introvert side of the scale, so relish every opportunity to get away from people. Not so easy now with a family. My wife is the early bird, so coffee is already prepared by the time I wake up. Lunch hour is my sanctuary--find a place that is scenic or with a good vi...
by market timer
Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your monthly expenses?
Replies: 59
Views: 5974

Re: What are your monthly expenses?

Family of 4. Monthly budget looks something like this: Vacations: $1,500 Restaurants: $1,200 School tuition: $1,000 Rent and utilities: $900 Groceries: $500 Childcare: $400 Toys/books: $200 Other, necessities (cell, etc.): $300 Other, discretionary (mostly stuff for wife's closet): $1,500 Total: $7,...
by market timer
Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Philosophy major and future law student
Replies: 93
Views: 4988

Re: Philosophy major and future law student

I have never been in a position to hire anyone, but I really find this paragraph from the web page hard to believe. . Let’s face it: when you go to a job interview with a company, and you let them know that you are a philosophy major, your personal stock goes up. It shows that you are intrigued by ...
by market timer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6132

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

What you are proposing is exactly the same as buying an at-the-money call option. It should be easy to verify which is a better deal by comparing the cost of the call option vs. 5% fee. Historical comparisons are not so meaningful because volatility is not constant over time. Currently, volatility i...
by market timer
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your personal savings rate?
Replies: 135
Views: 11405

Re: What's your personal savings rate?

Regardless of my income, I try to live on 4%/year of my nest egg. I know that lifestyle is likely sustainable even if I stop working. Each paycheck is like an unexpected bonus that permanently raises our standard of living. At the moment, my savings rate is 75% of net income. This affords a lifestyl...
by market timer
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1184

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

Yesterday the 3-month was higher than the 6-month: 1.15 and 1.12, respectively. Today, a little wider with a 6 bps difference, 1.16 and 1.10. Seem inconsequential but a little odd. This inversion is being attributed to concern that the 3-month payment could be delayed due to a debt ceiling impasse: m
by market timer
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3017

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

Thanks, all, for the suggestions. I've bookmarked this page. There's enough ideas to last through childhood.
by market timer
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3017

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

Read books to him I do this now, but could do more. Usually I'll buy a book or two every week for $10/book. While it's not a major expense, I wonder if there is a more efficient investment, like a subscription to an online library, that we could use instead. Unfortunately, where I live, there are n...
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3017

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

mouses wrote:Why indoors? Kids spend too much time indoors, imho. Connect with nature. Visit a farm that allows this.

Heat, humidity, and mosquitos, mainly.
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3017

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

Now for ideas, just do whatever sounds crazy, set up a tent in your living room, let the imagination go! This is part of the problem. I feel like my imagination has withered with age, and is confined to a few narrow topics that aren't of interest to 3-year-olds. Need some kind of an age-appropriate...
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3017

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

C4NT wrote:2. Painting

This is a good one. Maybe I'll get a painting set this weekend.
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3017

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

Read books to him I do this now, but could do more. Usually I'll buy a book or two every week for $10/book. While it's not a major expense, I wonder if there is a more efficient investment, like a subscription to an online library, that we could use instead. Unfortunately, where I live, there are n...
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3017

Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

What are some indoor activities people recommend for young children? I spend most of the weekend hanging out with my son at our house. He spends a lot of time watching videos on his iPad and playing with toy cars, and together we'll draw and read books, but I'd like to add a bit more variety to his ...
by market timer
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider business travel to be a perk or a burden?
Replies: 117
Views: 7249

Re: Do you consider business travel to be a perk or a burden?

DW and I travel internationally for our jobs every few months. It's a perk to fly business, stay in nice hotels, and see the cities. Usually the only cost is the companion flight ticket. For the past couple years, business trips have been our only vacations, aside from weekend getaways. We are start...
by market timer
Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2524
Views: 799143

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Reading Whatever by Michel Houellebecq. Just 10% into this book, but love it so far. Previously read Houellebecq's The Elementary Particles . Will probably end up reading everything he's written. Amazon blurb: Just thirty, with a well-paid job, no love life and a terrible attitude, the anti-hero of ...
by market timer
Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Grandson's request for advice
Replies: 37
Views: 3579

Re: Grandson's request for advice

Most people need to learn the hard way that they are lousy stock pickers. Better to learn early and for small stakes.
by market timer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bay Area housing
Replies: 69
Views: 6024

Re: Bay Area housing

Image

My gut says we are near peak Nasdaq / tech employment / Bay Area housing. If I were living in San Francisco, I'd rent. If I were working for Facebook or Google, I'd hedge my RSUs.
by market timer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2524
Views: 799143

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

American Kingpin: The Epic Hunt for the Criminal Mastermind Behind the Silk Road, by Nick Bilton.

The story of Ross Ulbricht, now serving a life sentence for drug trafficking. Highly recommended
by market timer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood
Replies: 74
Views: 4840

Re: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood

I don't really see the dilemma here. You have plenty of money and seem happy with your jobs. You can afford to outsource most child care duties, if you want to focus on work after having children. I think the question is really whether you want kids--it's not financial or occupational. Day-to-day mi...
by market timer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 7274

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

I feel like I missed out on working at companies like AMZN, FB, and GOOG. Despite being household names, these companies were not even on my radar as potential employers when I was looking for my first job 10 years ago. However, my background and personality are perfectly suited for tech. So, while ...
by market timer
Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying first class, business, versus economy.
Replies: 105
Views: 7563

Re: Flying first class, business, versus economy.

I usually fly business on trans-Pacific flights. In my view, most of the value comes from being able to sleep in business. If I can travel during hours I'd normally be awake, economy or premium economy is doable, even on fairly long haul flights. One solution worth considering when traveling with fa...
by market timer
Fri May 19, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help about put option I sold!
Replies: 6
Views: 918

Re: Need help about put option I sold!

Your options expire tomorrow. Today is the last day they are traded. Expect to have 400 shares in your account tomorrow or Monday morning at the latest.
by market timer
Tue May 02, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to Live on $60K or Less a Year?
Replies: 248
Views: 28106

Re: Where to Live on $60K or Less a Year?

You haven't mentioned anything about children. Are they part of the calculus? I plan to do a similar calculation in about 10-15 years with kids who would be in high school, returning to the US after a long time overseas. My ideal location would be a college town so my kids have access to the researc...
by market timer
Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2524
Views: 799143

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Disaster Artist: My Life Inside The Room, the Greatest Bad Movie Ever Made , by Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell. Amazon blurb: From the actor who somehow lived through it all, a “sharply detailed…funny book about a cinematic comedy of errors” (The New York Times): the making of the cult film pheno...
by market timer
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

The EE bonds are used to eventually unwind the leverage. Without them the leverage would greatly increase long term risk. There was a thread recently about retiring with up to 100% stocks and just borrowing to spend during a downturn. That's different than borrowing against EE bonds, even if you ar...
by market timer
Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

The way to solve this is to short sell a 10-year Treasury, which is effectively borrowing at the 10-year rate and lending at the overnight rate. This is balance sheet neutral vs. selling EE bonds to buy a Mercedes. No it's not. You would actually have to borrow and sell a bond which had the same st...
by market timer
Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Yes, if you want to sell EE bonds synthetically after 10 years without really selling them, you would need to short Treasuries of comparable duration. On this short position, you would earn interest, which could be used to pay for short term borrowing costs to fund consumption spending until EE bon...
by market timer
Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

If you would like to sell bonds and use the money for consumption, I would suggest shorting Treasuries (to reduce duration) and borrowing from other investments. Right, the scenario is something like I have lost my job in deflationary event 10 years into owning the EE bonds. I need to sell some of ...
by market timer
Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I'm assuming your trade in 10 years is to sell $100-150K of 10-year Treasuries and buy $100-150K of the S&P 500. How does this give me more money to use during the deflationary event? Sorry, I thought you had in mind a plan to sell the bonds and reinvest in equities. If you would like to sell b...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I would argue that you can do this synthetically with EE bonds by short selling Treasury futures and going long S&P 500 futures, while continuing to hold the EE bonds until they double. I believe the potential to construct this type of swap makes liquidity a non-issue for EE bonds. Walk me thro...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

In either case, they offer better optionality than typical long term bonds. That makes no sense to me. A typical long bond holder can also just hold them to maturity. Or they can sell them at any time, and keep all the interest to date. Unlike with EE bonds, doing so will not trigger a severe early...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

1. Optionality: I can redeem my EE bonds if interest rates go up. It's like owning a 3.5% 20-year Treasury with a free put option. But you lose the 3.5% if you redeem them early. It's more like owning a 20-year CD with a severe withdrawal penalty. Sure, you could also view EE bonds as 20-year CDs w...
by market timer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 20279

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

It's a long thread already, so here's my two cents: 1. Optionality: I can redeem my EE bonds if interest rates go up. It's like owning a 3.5% 20-year Treasury with a free put option. 2. Tax deferral / reduction: I'm in the 33% bracket now, but expect to have some years in the 0-15% bracket during ea...
by market timer
Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV show recommendations?
Replies: 520
Views: 203642

Re: TV show recommendations?

Currently on Netflix:

Rick & Morty
Peep Show
Black Mirror
Better Call Saul
by market timer
Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What constitutes "a lot" of money?
Replies: 81
Views: 11785

Re: What constitutes "a lot" of money?

I tend to ignore my portfolio's fluctuations and think about spending in terms of additional work-hours. One of my splurges is buying business class tickets instead of economy for long haul flights for myself and my family. I'll usually calculate how many extra days I'd have to work to pay for the c...
by market timer
Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529/son got accepted to medical school whahoooo!
Replies: 30
Views: 3703

Re: 529/son got accepted to medical school whahoooo!

With 0-4 years until the money is spent, use cash or a short term bond fund.
by market timer
Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2876
Views: 844688

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara (2003) Watched this on Netflix. I knew nothing of McNamara before watching this documentary. He had a fascinating life. The documentary mostly covers the time period from his role in the Tokyo fire bombings in WW2 to the Vietnam War...
by market timer
Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Stages of Retirement Saving
Replies: 55
Views: 10973

Re: The Stages of Retirement Saving

Rodc and market timer, Help me understand your points. How is the Phase 1.5 you inserted in RosieQ's OP scale different from her Phase 2? In net worth terms, Phase 1.5: $500-800K Phase 2: $2-3mn In work terms, Phase 1.5: Dreading Monday morning on Sunday afternoon? Why not go teach English in Japan...
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to slow down.
Replies: 33
Views: 5669

Re: When to slow down.

In my view, working 80 hours per week is not sustainable. Rather than work at a grocery store, why not try independent contract work on the weekends? The hourly pay should be much higher than working at the grocery store, and if business picks up, you could start a small business with more upside.
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?
Replies: 113
Views: 12035

Re: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?

You can deduct mileage/travel to visit the properties which can be big if one is conveniently located at your favorite travel destination. Are there any guidelines on this? I'd be tempted to buy rentals near my parents if I could legitimately expense the airfare, which runs over $10K/trip for my fa...
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Stages of Retirement Saving
Replies: 55
Views: 10973

Re: The Stages of Retirement Saving

I think there is a 1.5: enough to eek out a retirement NOW, perhaps with some low income part-time job if worst came to worst. This is the point at which you know you will almost certainly never live under a bridge (or your kids basement). After this it only gets better and better. With an other co...
by market timer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?
Replies: 113
Views: 12035

Re: High Income earners, whats your Tax Strategy?

You can deduct mileage/travel to visit the properties which can be big if one is conveniently located at your favorite travel destination. Are there any guidelines on this? I'd be tempted to buy rentals near my parents if I could legitimately expense the airfare, which runs over $10K/trip for my fa...
by market timer
Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?
Replies: 88
Views: 5110

Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

I made it just past the first bend point before leaving the US. When combined with the 50% bump for my wife, SS projects I'll get close to $20K/year at age 67. I expect something in this vicinity, a very nice ROI on my contributions.
by market timer
Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 7192

Re: an in depth look at gold

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:To give a brief analogy--I happen to be 45.

Welcome to Bogleheads, NiceUnparticularMan! I think many lawyers in their late 30s - early 40s would recognize your moniker. I remember discussing law school applications and philosophy with you back in 2001 on PR. You were a top quality poster.
by market timer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2524
Views: 799143

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I have not gotten over the fact that Knausgaard chose to use the name of one of the world's great works of evil. There is no doubt some irony in there, somewhere, that is present in the book? I'm halfway through the book and see no allusions to Nazism. So far, the book seems overhyped, unfortunatel...
by market timer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Massive Student Loan Debt - Girlfriend
Replies: 86
Views: 8141

Re: Massive Student Loan Debt - Girlfriend

I expect PSLF will be around in 7 years and forgiving hundreds of billions of dollars in debt. If she stays single, she'll have no trouble financially. If she gets married, it's possible her husband's income will be considered to determine forgiveness eligibility or repayment amount. The safest opti...