Search found 855 matches

by magneto
Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing matter for long term investing?
Replies: 11
Views: 1056

Re: Does market timing matter for long term investing?

There is an ongoing problem here. The term 'Market Timing' can vary dependent on the eye of the beholder. We have 'Momentum Investing' And then we have the various Investment Formula Plans such as :- + Constant Value + Constant Value with added slope + Constant Ratio (the usual preferred BH'ers form...
by magneto
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4069

Re: Offensive Valuations

Thanks OP, for prompting an intriguing discussion and alerting those approaching or in retirement to stop and think. The 'where else can I put the money' line of thought can lead to irrational AAs if not outright danger. As pointed out Cash is so often overlooked. And also as mentioned Rental Real E...
by magneto
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting against the possibility of a correction?
Replies: 45
Views: 3875

Re: Protecting against the possibility of a correction?

The Bogleheads® Philosophy *Develop a workable plan *Invest early and often *Never bear too much or too little risk * Never try to time the market <----------- *Use index funds when possible *Keep costs low *Diversify *Minimize taxes *Keep it simple * Stay the course <-------------- There is a fine...
by magneto
Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1529

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

1. Do my investment in a prolonged bull market become more risky at higher valuations? 2. Should I perceive the same amount of risk whether it is 2 years in to a bull market or 8? 1. The academics may say that volatility is risk and risk/volatility has nothing to do with valuations. But risk when e...
by magneto
Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12013

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

"I believe strongly that [investors] should be realizing valuations are fairly full, and if they are nervous they could easily sell off a portion of their stocks.," said Bogle, adding that investors should not sell much." JB This is a very very qualified statement; difficult to gainsay. In fact any ...
by magneto
Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 97
Views: 5145

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Risk tolerance? Hmmm! Downside Risk? Upside risk not an issue? Presumably the investor using a 'Constant Ratio (CR) Investment Formula Plan' will dial back their Stock exposure to suit a worst case scenario regardless of the surrounding markets? This does limit the advantages of a more flexible 'Var...
by magneto
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?
Replies: 51
Views: 4469

Re: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?

There is an underlying assumption here, that high risk equals high reward. Loading up high on Stocks when 'on sale' may make some sense, loading up high on Stocks when fully priced less so. It remains possible for the balanced portfolio to outperform a 100% Stock portfolio dependent on the rebalanci...
by magneto
Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial History Books
Replies: 15
Views: 1507

Re: Financial History Books

Don't forget Galbraith's 'A Short History of Financial Euphoria' brimming with dry humour.
Assume that all will by now have read his 'The Great Crash 1929'.

Found Chancellor's 'Devil take the Hindmost' relatively heavy going, but it does inter-alia cover the Japan debacle.
by magneto
Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 192
Views: 12816

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

Why do we save and invest :-

+ Anxiety about future security
+ Ammunition to enable unrestricted free choices in life
+ Delayed gratification
+ An interest in numbers
+ Other?

Could be something in our genes perhaps?
by magneto
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the investment scenario changing for individual investors due to increase in privatization?
Replies: 24
Views: 2186

Re: Is the investment scenario changing for individual investors due to increase in privatization?

Seems like there is a large global supply of cheap money chasing yield. That's what is shaping all the markets and PE is just another market where the excess return is being arbed away over time. Just look at all the committed but uninvested money aka "dry powder". I think regulation is a canard. I...
by magneto
Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2724

Re: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks

But, overall EM is still pretty cheap. Especially compared to Amazon, Facebook and Google. Growth and glamour stocks are not my favorite ways to invest. Similar situation here recently, found US becoming underweight. Have part topped up, but underweighting the FAANG-like growth/glamour sector stuff...
by magneto
Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities
Replies: 79
Views: 7291

Re: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities

JW-Retired wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:47 am

No bonds is not insane if he wouldn't dream of selling low in a crisis
This is the key takeaway.

100% Stocks may or may not prove optimal; but for 100%ers strength of determination is essential.

Good Luck to him
by magneto
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities
Replies: 26
Views: 1065

Re: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities

In the UK; Blackrock run a number of Closed End Funds holding shares in the Global Oil/Gas, Miners, etc. Have held such a fund for over a decade or more and it certainly provides non-correlation with mainstream markets. Currrently yielding 5.7%ish (after dividend cuts) and well off price highs, unli...
by magneto
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 825

Re: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

For instance the momentum following cult presently driving the FAANGs to questionable levels. Buying such stocks for no other reason other than they are going up. Do we really want to load up on such stocks unduly? Good point, that's why I wrote this: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?...
by magneto
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 825

Re: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

From the Howard Marks' Memo: One of my clients, the chief investment officer of a pension fund told me the treasurer had proposed dumping all active managers and putting the whole fund into index funds and ETFs. My response was simple: ask him how much of the fund he's comfortable having in assets ...
by magneto
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: blood pressure monitor recommendations?
Replies: 38
Views: 2436

Re: blood pressure monitor recommendations?

I think a lot of incorrect readings come from improper use. I get the most improper use at a dentist office, so even so-called medical professionals don't always use one correctly. Beware of 'white coat syndrome'. Blood pressure can rise significantly in the presence of medical staff. Recommendatio...
by magneto
Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK based investing - bond ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 772

Re: UK based investing - bond ETFs

It is worth noting that if the present UK CPI inflation rate of 2.9% is to be believed, then in real terms (after inflation) the cost of the mortgage is 2.35% - 2.90% = minus 0.55%. With the repayments being in future inflation eroded £Sterling, then the lender is suffering a loss in real terms, in ...
by magneto
Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK based investing - bond ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 772

Re: UK based investing - bond ETFs

rgb73 wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:21 am Thanks ValueThinker. Sometimes with bonds I feel I'm better off overpaying my mortgage (rate = 2.35%), and simply holding a sizeable amount in cash. Depends on the extent of need for dry powder foreseen. Difficult to liquidate part of property/mortgage to buy ...
by magneto
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5260

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

Excellent post and follow-up comments. We assume rental properties over the long-term, more or less match inflation as per independent studies, while providing a yield varying from 2.5% to 12.5% dependent on property types and house price cycles. When you buy can be almost as important as where and ...
by magneto
Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on the sidelines...for now
Replies: 32
Views: 3847

Re: Sitting on the sidelines...for now

If using such an approach then an Investment Plan is definitely needed to determine the decision making process in advance of market fluctuations and transactions. Or as observed above one could indeed be left sitting on the sidelines forever. The IP would typically include some method of gauging ma...
by magneto
Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree
Replies: 8
Views: 1232

Re: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree

Suggest reading Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18.
See also his website.
by magneto
Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Be careful with Passive Index ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 2275

Re: Be careful with Passive Index ETFs

As far as the general theme about ETFs trading well below the underlying. Short answer: yes this did happen. It is probably 1/2 fixed. And mostly won't matter to Bogleheads even if weren't fixed at all. Maybe sometimes overlooked is that behind the workings of the 'authorised participants', ETFs ar...
by magneto
Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?
Replies: 17
Views: 2099

Re: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?

1. As more and more people go the route of Index funds 2. and if keeping those funds through thick and thin, no selling, no market timing, does this mute the effects that might occur should the market drop? With the increase in passive index fund money and the BH philosophy of leaving it be due to ...
by magneto
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help with method to dividing portfolio in assets
Replies: 9
Views: 670

Re: help with method to dividing portfolio in assets

For instance, I want say 60% us stocks 20% international stocks 10% bonds. for instance, hypothetically I have 58k in one ira 23k in another ira 7600 in an HSA 6782 in another hsa 5500 in after an after tax... so forth.... splitting it up logically, just looking for method that says Buy X US stock ...
by magneto
Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can real estate investing (actual properties) be relatively "hands off"?
Replies: 50
Views: 5874

Re: Can real estate investing be relatively "hands off"?

Can real estate be a nearly “hands off” investment in the same way that index funds are? I understand that using a property manager can alleviate some of the hassle of being a landlord (for a price), but do they really get it to the point of being as passive of an investment as index funds? Do the ...
by magneto
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 4191

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

So many definitions of risk out there. One is the risk of running out of money, or not having the money when needed. From a longer term real world (rather than academic volatility) perspective, this cautious investor prefers looking at upside potential v downside risk, which will fluctuate with the ...
by magneto
Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The CAPEable Portfolio!
Replies: 30
Views: 2529

Re: The CAPEable Portfolio!

1. Where is the math or studies or prospective results to suggest this CAPE idea. 2. No offense to you or the original poster but this idea is about 10 years old or more old. It is not novel. So why isn't it done? No one is interested in making more money? Maybe it doesn't work and that is why? 1. ...
by magneto
Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop headaches
Replies: 11
Views: 1741

Re: Laptop headaches

It might be that your new laptop screen is using Pulse Wave Modulation which is known to cause headaches in certain people. If you search the specific model at notebookcheck.net and they have reviewed it, they test for PWM which would help you verify if this might be the cause. Thanks very much for...
by magneto
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop headaches
Replies: 11
Views: 1741

Laptop headaches

Have been using a now fairly old Toshiba laptop for hours on end, without any problems.

Rrecently switched to a new (HP) laptop.
After 30 mins or so, headaches begin.

Any ideas anyone as to what might be happening ?
by magneto
Sat Jul 01, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time in the market is more important, But seriously ?
Replies: 60
Views: 7969

Re: Time in the market is more important, But seriously ?

The only reason this phrase seems to work, is that if an investor stands well back from a semi-log chart they note the steady upward NE trajectory. So the obvious deduction is to go 100% Stocks at all times. Why bother with any Fixed Income? The trouble with semi-log charts is that they are semi-log...
by magneto
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times: Index fund evangelist is straying From His Gospel]
Replies: 32
Views: 3876

Re: Malkiel is reversing some of his views on passive investing

"Maybe the experts can beat the monkeys after all"

Quite correct; but should not be confused with :-

"The experts will beat the monkeys after all"
by magneto
Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?
Replies: 127
Views: 14851

Re: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?

Maybe OP's IQ is too high (or too low)?

Perhaps a 50% Stock meltdown would rekindle some interest; and get those books off the shelf?
by magneto
Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 5843

Re: Probabilities and Consequences

Bogleheads: .......... I have a simple solution which has worked for me: Money I cannot afford to lose is in safe-fixed income -- the rest is in stock mutual funds. I sleep like a baby. Best wishes. Taylor Thanks Taylor for this good advice and the insights in previous posts telling us about the La...
by magneto
Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 11607

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

advice789 wrote: The current market levels may point to more risks but then, that is a reason for reasonable asset allocation to provide a cushion for a stock decline.
+1
by magneto
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Here's why bonds still belong in your portfolio."
Replies: 8
Views: 2408

Re: "Here's why bonds still belong in your portfolio."

Rather than Bonds or No Bonds,
The key question IMHO is where to pitch the term length (focus duration) of Bonds, taking note of their history.

http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate
by magneto
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 138
Views: 8539

Re: 100% Stocks For A Late Starter?

A sage (don't remember who) has opined :-

If increased risk guaranteed increased returns, then risk would not be risky :!:
by magneto
Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest once retired [UK]
Replies: 25
Views: 1447

Re: Where to invest once retired [UK]

1. What Alternatives are you invested in? AFAIK none of them are a good risk/ return combination. 2. Real cash? Meaning current account at a bank? It's important to stay below £75k per institution (£150k per couple per institution). 1. With unerring accuracy homing in on the major uncertainties !!!...
by magneto
Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest once retired [UK]
Replies: 25
Views: 1447

Re: Where to invest once retired [UK]

Find this a very difficult problem, since through the eyes of an adaptive value investor, most if not all asset classes are currently expensive, therefore offering little in the way of income and capital preservation against the downside risk. As VT observes Ted Swippet is the UK contributor most li...
by magneto
Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using limit orders to limit losses
Replies: 21
Views: 1926

Re: Using limit orders to limit losses

As noted, a stop-loss will guarantee a loss in a falling position, if that is what the investor wishes? If the price rises the stop-loss becomes irrelevant (unless maybe it is a trailing stop-loss). However if the investor enters a postion in the certainty :- + that it is a position they will be hap...
by magneto
Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"
Replies: 35
Views: 5807

Re: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"

Taking note of how markets are valued today; 30/70 may (or may not) turn out to be prudent, bearing in mind the Sequence of Returns Risk for the retiree as mentioned. We, also in retirement, are currently 27/73. However with different market conditions we might lift to 50/50 or maybe even an extreme...
by magneto
Wed May 31, 2017 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 8048

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

Just to be clear, it could well be that the correlation between REITs and common stocks is a variable (I consider that a near certainty). So I would say this study should give you reason for concern if your assumption was that REITs would ALWAYS have correlations with common stocks below a certain ...
by magneto
Sat May 27, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE adjusted stock/bond ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 1205

Re: CAPE adjusted stock/bond ratio

So tell us what is CAPE's track record for predicting stock returns? CAPE has its' problems, and today may be more than usually misleading. For all its' flaws (see Smithers 'Valuing Wall Street') we prefer Dividend Yield, with adjustments necessary from decade to decade. This enables quick comparis...
by magneto
Thu May 25, 2017 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tea recommendations
Replies: 10
Views: 1278

Re: Tea recommendations

Supposedly 97% of tea is nowadays consumed using tea bags. As a determined loose tea drinker, find this difficult to believe and sad. IMHO the flavor from the bag ruins the underlying taste of the tea. Also poorer quality teas can be "hidden" in tea bags. If not already familiar with the d...
by magneto
Thu May 25, 2017 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 8621

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

For a fully rounded balanced view; perhaps read also one of the books authored by Geraldine Weiss ?
by magneto
Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing
Replies: 57
Views: 4693

Re: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing

As observed this is effectively the technique sometimes referred to as :- DCA in : DCA out In a Control System immediate correction can lead to instability. Progressive correction is therefore commonly used inter-alia to improve system stability. The investor, whether (s)he realises it or not, is pa...
by magneto
Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1551

Re: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio

Petula was moving the ever dwindling sickly Acer Palmatum again this week hoping for more success elsewhere, when our neighbour Rupert leaned disparagingly across the freshly trimmed privet and remarked “you won’t have much luck around these parts with that, it’s an acid lover. It’s much the same wi...
by magneto
Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?
Replies: 56
Views: 5269

Re: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?

Here in UK doing some top slicing this week :- UK : CTY Global : VWRL, IVPG, MYI, SCAM Asia/Pacific : HFEL Renewables : UKW Infrastructure : 3IN Petula says it's no good me just keeping wittering on about it being a bit late in the cycle, so why don't I do something like take some profits and reinve...
by magneto
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 8007

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

Petula has belatedly begun to prune the privet hedge. I say belatedly as apparently one should wait until the end of the bird nesting season. Anyway while pruning she fell into discussion with our neighbour Rupert and was telling him about some of the difficulties we were having with our investments...
by magneto
Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 13191

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

Thought processes around 'risk' can be confused by limiting discussion to the usual Fixed Ratio Asset Allocator. The Variable Ratio or Value Asset Allocator might be looking at risk in different terms say :- + Upside Potential (or Upside Risk! if preferred?) - Downside Risk (as touched on by Nisi) T...