Search found 824 matches

by magneto
Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?
Replies: 88
Views: 7024

Re: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?

Maybe OP's IQ is too high (or too low)?

Perhaps a 50% Stock meltdown would rekindle some interest; and get those books off the shelf?
by magneto
Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 4882

Re: Probabilities and Consequences

Bogleheads: .......... I have a simple solution which has worked for me: Money I cannot afford to lose is in safe-fixed income -- the rest is in stock mutual funds. I sleep like a baby. Best wishes. Taylor Thanks Taylor for this good advice and the insights in previous posts telling us about the La...
by magneto
Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 10005

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

advice789 wrote:The current market levels may point to more risks but then, that is a reason for reasonable asset allocation to provide a cushion for a stock decline.


+1
by magneto
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Here's why bonds still belong in your portfolio."
Replies: 8
Views: 2158

Re: "Here's why bonds still belong in your portfolio."

Rather than Bonds or No Bonds,
The key question IMHO is where to pitch the term length (focus duration) of Bonds, taking note of their history.

http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate
by magneto
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 138
Views: 6639

Re: 100% Stocks For A Late Starter?

A sage (don't remember who) has opined :-

If increased risk guaranteed increased returns, then risk would not be risky :!:
by magneto
Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest once retired [UK]
Replies: 25
Views: 1179

Re: Where to invest once retired [UK]

1. What Alternatives are you invested in? AFAIK none of them are a good risk/ return combination. 2. Real cash? Meaning current account at a bank? It's important to stay below £75k per institution (£150k per couple per institution). 1. With unerring accuracy homing in on the major uncertainties !!!...
by magneto
Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest once retired [UK]
Replies: 25
Views: 1179

Re: Where to invest once retired [UK]

Find this a very difficult problem, since through the eyes of an adaptive value investor, most if not all asset classes are currently expensive, therefore offering little in the way of income and capital preservation against the downside risk. As VT observes Ted Swippet is the UK contributor most li...
by magneto
Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using limit orders to limit losses
Replies: 21
Views: 1618

Re: Using limit orders to limit losses

As noted, a stop-loss will guarantee a loss in a falling position, if that is what the investor wishes? If the price rises the stop-loss becomes irrelevant (unless maybe it is a trailing stop-loss). However if the investor enters a postion in the certainty :- + that it is a position they will be hap...
by magneto
Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"
Replies: 35
Views: 5275

Re: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"

Taking note of how markets are valued today; 30/70 may (or may not) turn out to be prudent, bearing in mind the Sequence of Returns Risk for the retiree as mentioned. We, also in retirement, are currently 27/73. However with different market conditions we might lift to 50/50 or maybe even an extreme...
by magneto
Wed May 31, 2017 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7113

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

Just to be clear, it could well be that the correlation between REITs and common stocks is a variable (I consider that a near certainty). So I would say this study should give you reason for concern if your assumption was that REITs would ALWAYS have correlations with common stocks below a certain ...
by magneto
Sat May 27, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE adjusted stock/bond ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 931

Re: CAPE adjusted stock/bond ratio

So tell us what is CAPE's track record for predicting stock returns? CAPE has its' problems, and today may be more than usually misleading. For all its' flaws (see Smithers 'Valuing Wall Street') we prefer Dividend Yield, with adjustments necessary from decade to decade. This enables quick comparis...
by magneto
Thu May 25, 2017 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tea recommendations
Replies: 10
Views: 1098

Re: Tea recommendations

Supposedly 97% of tea is nowadays consumed using tea bags. As a determined loose tea drinker, find this difficult to believe and sad. IMHO the flavor from the bag ruins the underlying taste of the tea. Also poorer quality teas can be "hidden" in tea bags. If not already familiar with the d...
by magneto
Thu May 25, 2017 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 7310

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

For a fully rounded balanced view; perhaps read also one of the books authored by Geraldine Weiss ?
by magneto
Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing
Replies: 57
Views: 4131

Re: Benefits and methods for Gradual Rebalancing

As observed this is effectively the technique sometimes referred to as :- DCA in : DCA out In a Control System immediate correction can lead to instability. Progressive correction is therefore commonly used inter-alia to improve system stability. The investor, whether (s)he realises it or not, is pa...
by magneto
Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1396

Re: Timing Assets Within Your Portfolio

Petula was moving the ever dwindling sickly Acer Palmatum again this week hoping for more success elsewhere, when our neighbour Rupert leaned disparagingly across the freshly trimmed privet and remarked “you won’t have much luck around these parts with that, it’s an acid lover. It’s much the same wi...
by magneto
Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?
Replies: 56
Views: 4846

Re: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?

Here in UK doing some top slicing this week :- UK : CTY Global : VWRL, IVPG, MYI, SCAM Asia/Pacific : HFEL Renewables : UKW Infrastructure : 3IN Petula says it's no good me just keeping wittering on about it being a bit late in the cycle, so why don't I do something like take some profits and reinve...
by magneto
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?
Replies: 123
Views: 7169

Re: Is it necessary to diversify across Factors?

Petula has belatedly begun to prune the privet hedge. I say belatedly as apparently one should wait until the end of the bird nesting season. Anyway while pruning she fell into discussion with our neighbour Rupert and was telling him about some of the difficulties we were having with our investments...
by magneto
Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 12215

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

Thought processes around 'risk' can be confused by limiting discussion to the usual Fixed Ratio Asset Allocator. The Variable Ratio or Value Asset Allocator might be looking at risk in different terms say :- + Upside Potential (or Upside Risk! if preferred?) - Downside Risk (as touched on by Nisi) T...
by magneto
Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay the course, always?
Replies: 55
Views: 4620

Re: Stay the course, always?

My understating is that the general recommendation here is to select a comfortable AA and stay the course. But, is there a time when you do need to adjust your AA based on what the market is doing? I am confused because I read conflicting opinions even from the Bogleheads and even heard Jack Boggle...
by magneto
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Out of the norm all-equity portfolio to compliment pensions
Replies: 13
Views: 664

Re: Out of the norm all-equity portfolio to compliment pensions

I was thinking of doing the following: 25% S&P 500 25% US Small Cap stocks 25% Developed International 25% Emerging markets We are in our mid 30's. This is obviously very aggressive but my logic is that we already have pensions which I look at as a more conservative investment. Our pensions sho...
by magneto
Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV and/or Speakers for Enhanced Voice Clarity [UPDATE]
Replies: 35
Views: 2180

Re: TV and/or Speakers for Enhanced Voice Clarity [UPDATE]

Second the advice to take a look at Sound Bases. These fit neatly under the smaller TVs, so no cluttering with any wires or speakers on floor, and bass/treble/volume can be tailored on remote to suit listener. Was stunned on buying a modern TV at how poorly the sound is now reproduced. Gone are dece...
by magneto
Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 6382

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

Good to see one or two posters have picked up on that there is more than one investment formula plan (four at the last count). Most here prefer the Constant Ratio Investment Formula Plan, the limitations of which seem to be creating some difficulties and doubts in thinking through the pros and cons ...
by magneto
Wed Mar 01, 2017 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2345

Re: Technical Analysis

Seems to be a great deal of misunderstanding here about TA :!: Even by some of our most respected posters. It is all about looking for patterns Seeing patterns in random events Primary purpose is to define the future Charts (pictures) don't tell a story There is nothing technical about it Ignores fu...
by magneto
Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2345

Re: Technical Analysis

For any investors using momentum funds; remember this is derived from TA :!:

Momentum is one of those TA rare techniques that the more it becomes known and followed, the more it succeeds. :(
by magneto
Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing frequency - Balanced funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1189

Re: Rebalancing frequency - Balanced funds

Is there any discussion of whether/how the daily rebalancing in a balanced fund could affect the fund performance versus infrequent rebalancing such as once-a-year or even less frequent like once every three years? There was a thread a few years back. It was of sufficient interest to prompt this in...
by magneto
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2345

Re: Technical Analysis

I've seen segments discussing technical analysis on CNBC news shows like Fast Money, but don't quite get their concepts or terminology. Does anyone know how reliable it is as an indicator to buy or sell? There seems to be a cottage industry about professional technical analysts that break down pric...
by magneto
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Markets as Banks
Replies: 3
Views: 313

Re: Asset Markets as Banks

Is the situation highlighted really new :?:

2008/9 apart we have had to deal with heady valuations for some time now; and most investors will have adopted strategies to cope with such problems.

Wonder what the author was thinking in late 1999?

But then pages have to be filled :!:
by magneto
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P at 22 times multiple
Replies: 40
Views: 5003

Re: S&P at 22 times multiple

I am firm believer in reversion to the mean. Based on historical norms the market is way over valued I wonder how long it will take till market reverts back to the mean a sell off must be coming soon i suspect. We are all wondering about that. And have been for some years :!: When our resolve weake...
by magneto
Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Iron Law of Valuation
Replies: 24
Views: 2702

Re: The Iron Law of Valuation

Given that the market's returns have historically been favorable, why try to make it slightly more favorable at the significant risk of making it much less favorable? If market timing based on valuations was as useful and successful as some purport it to be, it would be standard practice since meas...
by magneto
Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating tips for selling condo to tenant
Replies: 35
Views: 3199

Re: Negotiating tips for selling condo to tenant

We have no negotiating skills and have asked our current tenant if they would like to purchase it. They have been good tenants and we have treated them well too. I'm thinking we will all just sit down and discuss a price. We are not positive they want to buy. Thanks for any tips for a first time ne...
by magneto
Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off a rental property
Replies: 14
Views: 1828

Re: Paying off a rental property

Try thinking about the mortgage as leverage for the whole portfolio. Then compare cost of mortgage (after taxes, etc, as mentioned) with real yields or if preferred expected returns on Stocks, Bonds, Cash or other Fixed Income. Remember the real interest rate on the mortgage is less inflation (being...
by magneto
Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocation/Diversification of Equities During Withdrawal Phase
Replies: 10
Views: 969

Re: Allocation/Diversification of Equities During Withdrawal Phase

My non-expert intuition is that allocation and diversification should be very different during the withdrawal phase than it is during the accumulation phase--and I am not referring to the percentage of fixed income. So, what allocation of equities during withdrawal is most likely to always have som...
by magneto
Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Cash
Replies: 17
Views: 3908

Re: Bonds vs. Cash

Good responses above, which following thoughts merely overlap. There are bond buyers other than retail investors in the bond market. Their reasons to hold bonds may differ from the retail investor And those investors may be driven more by necessity than value or reason :?: We might expect interest r...
by magneto
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rebalancing AA in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 977

Re: Rebalancing AA in Retirement

Suggest as always reading Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18, as a starting point.

See also Frank's more recent on-line e-book.

This topic has more than one obvious answer!

And perhaps the overlooked asset class (Cash) might possibly come into play, to some limited degree?
by magneto
Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance into cash
Replies: 44
Views: 3533

Re: Rebalance into cash

erik265 wrote:Just wondering since interest rates are rising and the market is over valued based on historical norms should i re balance into cash and take a wait and see approach?
I know i know market timing people on here hate that ha


Is the word rebalance, quite correct?

(Kind of infers back to previous?)
by magneto
Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real Estate Vs. Stocks - all-time returns
Replies: 19
Views: 2877

Re: Real Estate Vs. Stocks - all-time returns

Owning specific rental real estate properties (along with management, etc.) and owning a diversfied fund of stocks would be such different ventures asking which makes the better investment is probably not a question that makes sense. I suspect such answer as exists is that a person can indeed do ve...
by magneto
Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the current market?
Replies: 26
Views: 3224

Re: Investing in the current market?

So just a couple of days back John Bogle himself states "It looks like a risky time to me: Stocks are fully priced". It is obvious the US market is priced higher than historical norms. Bonds don't look so tempting with the expectation of rising interest rates. I could go short and limited...
by magneto
Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Planning Advice PLEASE
Replies: 16
Views: 2177

Re: Retirement Planning Advice PLEASE

My husband and I unwisely placed most of our investments in real estate. We have no 401k or retirement plan offered from employer. We have managed to save $350, 000. We are now 65 and 66 and would like to retire in a year. The real estate in our area is still about 50% lower than the crash about 10...
by magneto
Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Buffett really believe the stock market went nowhere from 1964 to 1981?
Replies: 25
Views: 3213

Re: Did Buffett really believe the stock market went nowhere from 1964 to 1981?

Similar (lost period) thing in the UK with the FTSE100 still today just below the level of Dec 99 :!: However a poster produced data in another thread, showing that with dividends included, the UK FTSE100 surprisingly near matched the total return of the S&P over the same period. Well done the d...
by magneto
Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adjust Bond Holdings?
Replies: 8
Views: 798

Re: Adjust Bond Holdings?

Some thoughts :- Not all buyers/holders in the Bond Market are private investors. Those other non-private buyers/holders may have entirely different reasons for selecting their Bonds? ST Bonds, as you well know, should have less volatility and may appeal to the "take your risk on the Stock-side...
by magneto
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 31
Views: 7258

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

As a personal decision, and as an exercise in "knowing thyself," I realized I am okay with stock volatility and declines, but am less okay with seeing losses on fixed income instruments like bonds whose yields aren't all that impressive to begin with. Deaconfan Useful reminder about FI. F...
by magneto
Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 242
Views: 29016

Re: Retreat to cash

Essentially what we may be talking about here is market direction or market valuations? Direction is sought by momentum (aka trend) followers. An uncomfortable place to be when mean reversion takes over! Valuation criteria can be conflicting and confusing, and long-term drifting. Is there an Investm...
by magneto
Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have low interest rates effected any internatinal stocks in the same way it has effected US dividend funds?
Replies: 7
Views: 876

Re: Have low interest rates effected any internatinal stocks in the same way it has effected US dividend funds?

I've been thinking about how interest rates are much lower or even negative in other parts of the world. How do investors there get "income"? From a UK perspective, if pushed to list in some kind of order, the present most attractive Income Seeking Assets to enable a UK Defensive Retiree ...
by magneto
Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation 3 years away from retirement
Replies: 11
Views: 1990

Re: Allocation 3 years away from retirement

OP. You are coming to much the same conclusion as Frank Armstrong. I.E. %s may not be the pragmatic answer in retirement. See his book 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18, and also his web-site and on-line book ‘Investment Strategies for the 21st Century’ at ‘Investorsolutions.com’; below is an extract...
by magneto
Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds suck
Replies: 46
Views: 7030

Re: Bonds suck

Maybe shorter duration would feel more like home?
by magneto
Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 22812

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

goingup wrote:It's curious that no one complains when bonds fluctuate upward.


+1

Short duration Bonds not too bad!
We are tentatively dipping our toes into ST IG Corps.
But surely this negative scenario has much further to run?

Anyone else buying Bonds yet?
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 2185

Re: Barbell strategies?

I assume BH AA implementations are based on taking a middle-of-the-road approach to investing, e.g., some mix of total stock and total bond markets. This is in contrast to barbell strategies such as those espoused by Taleb and others that supposedly place greater emphasis on avoiding black swan eve...
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WOW, What a Total Bond and bonds in general drop!
Replies: 37
Views: 6410

Re: WOW, What a Total Bond and bonds in general drop!

Erwin wrote:Yesterday (11.9.16): Vanguard Total Bond -1%. So very unusual!


How is it looking Year on Year?
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are getting crushed...
Replies: 42
Views: 9528

Re: Bonds are getting crushed...

shak_VF wrote:the 30 yr treasury is down big today, down a full 3 3/32 - yield up to 2.78% 10 yr yield up to near 2%. A very fast move up to 2% for the 10 yr in a very short amount of time. I would think it is time to re-think bond allocations. I am re-thinking mine.


In which direction?

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