Search found 927 matches

by magneto
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018?
Replies: 7
Views: 785

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018?

Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018? Which one are you guys doing ........ and investing in general? Before I always lump sumed at the beginning of each year but this year due to drop I am wondering if I should dollar-cost average. What do you guys think? What are you guys doing? 'Time diversif...
by magneto
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bonner: what's your take?
Replies: 38
Views: 3316

Re: Bill Bonner: what's your take?

Bill Bonner views are usually well-informed and can interest. But as regards the future he may be incorrect, correct, or only partially correct. We have to admit that we simply don't know. :annoyed One idea to such an investment 'timing' predicament is to 'time diversify', using DCA, Value Averaging...
by magneto
Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5441

Re: A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

Will add if price weakens further, or reduce if see significant gains. Called 'rebalancing'. Just FYI, changing your allocation is NOT "rebalancing". Rebalancing is balancing back to your original allocation. For instance if your AA is 50/50 and stocks are up 15% in a year, and bonds are up 3%, you...
by magneto
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 13
Views: 904

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Decided to go 90 percent equities. I have read in few posts and Tim Hales book that for someone with such a high equities holding as this longer term bond's/gilts may provide a better diversifier for equity falls. Am considering the vanguard inflation linked gilt index. If these interest rate rises...
by magneto
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5441

Re: A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

Topped up Russia this week on the sharp decline. Levelled at long-term target circa 2 to 2.5% of Stocks. Will add if price weakens further, or reduce if see significant gains. Called 'rebalancing'. Trying to focus on fundamentals rather than narrative - but that's far from easy! The Rouble may damag...
by magneto
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?
Replies: 69
Views: 4413

Re: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?

If backtesting were useless, how many would be invested in equities? Historically, people did invest in equities, even without back-testing. When people were investing in stocks in the 1920s, they did so without the benefit of decades of historical data. The Composite index(a S&P predecessor) wasn'...
by magneto
Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor
Replies: 11
Views: 932

Re: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor

To quote :- "Considerations 1. I don't have control over the pension fund asset allocation (naturally). 2. I think 25% of my investments in UK stocks is more than enough, so I want to avoid UK stocks in the parts of my portfolio I can control. 3. I strongly subscribe to the Boglehead philosophy." In...
by magneto
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??
Replies: 54
Views: 6332

Re: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??

There is an awkward issue here, that have not observed mentioned thus far. Namely 'momentum'. This may be troubling the OP? Since Stocks have no 'mass', then theoretically Stock momentum should not exist? But unfortunately it does appear to exist, and has been latched on by some respected BH authors...
by magneto
Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA falling bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2388

Re: DCA falling bond funds?

InvestInLife wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:49 am
The newbie in me is tired and sad from selling new equities at a loss for the sake of tidying up my portfolio.
Something seems to be horribly wrong with the Investment Plan. :?
See previous post, esp re Bond duration.
by magneto
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey on Bonds
Replies: 107
Views: 8804

Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

This is, and has been, a common refrain for some time. Reminder :- "As a general rule, for every 1% change in interest rates (increase or decrease), a bond’s price will change approximately 1% in the opposite direction, for every year of duration. If a bond has a duration of five years and interest ...
by magneto
Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett - Bonds / Risk / Portfolio Ratio
Replies: 9
Views: 1432

Re: Warren Buffett - Bonds / Risk / Portfolio Ration

deleted - must read posts more carefully
by magneto
Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4382

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

From an earlier post with similar OP concerns. Some comment around this subject, reminds investors that since 1980 ish Bonds have been in a benign environment with steadily falling yields and rising prices , see chart :- http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate The two or three fund portfolio mig...
by magneto
Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of interest rate hikes on US bonds lessons for EU investors
Replies: 13
Views: 846

Re: Effect of interest rate hikes on US bonds

Some comment around this subject, reminds investors that since 1980 ish Bonds have been in a benign environment with steadily falling yields and rising prices , see chart :- http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate The two or three fund portfolio might over that period take advantage of ever risi...
by magneto
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1540

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Investors have a few options. 1. First and foremost, you can add assets outside the United States to your portfolio. 2. You can also include things that are neither stocks nor bonds. 3. If you want to include something in your portfolio that is not only not correlated to stocks, but negatively corr...
by magneto
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 33
Views: 3460

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

lazyday wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:34 am
To me it's reasonable to cut equity a little because of poor expected returns. But I wouldn't gamble on getting a chance to buy back in cheaper.
But maybe at more attractive valuations?

Turning the question on its' head; does anyone think Stocks are cheap today?
by magneto
Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1331

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

Do as you want as it is your money, but whatever you are doing IS market timing as you are making guesses on valuations. Simple as that. You may be correct or you may be completely wrong. You may make a ton of money, but you may end up broke. If you have that fallback inheritance go for it, but if ...
by magneto
Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1331

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

After reading the Intelligent Investor, I am thinking about switching from a set allocation of 80% stocks, 20% bonds, to a more dynamic allocation that would change slightly based on interest rates and the Schiller PE. I am thinking of something like the following: 1. If the Schiller PE is less tha...
by magneto
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 7820

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

Firstly the need to understand 'risk'. No matter what the academics might opine; it ain't just volatility. Howard Marks suggests the risk that matters most is the risk of permanent loss. Posters above have picked up on some horrifying worst case scenarios. And for the value concious investor, there ...
by magneto
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feeling good about the market's direction. Wish it would drop more...
Replies: 14
Views: 2325

Re: Feeling good about the market's direction. Wish it would drop more...

As an 'Adaptive Value Investor' a la Ben Graham, quite content to be able to deploy some of the defensive (income producing) reserves into Stocks, after what seems a long wait. High valuations had kept stock target to circa 25%, now lifted to circa 30%. (Max 75%). Will only move monies at 10% of dev...
by magneto
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1614

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

Since confusion continues and suspect will always continue :( This quote from Benjamin Graham in The Intelligent Investor may augment the points made by a few posters :- "Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent in...
by magneto
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1614

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

Suppose I have a 90:10 stock bond allocation. If I think that market is too overvalued right now and if I want to change the future contributions to be allocated 50:50, with hopes that if the market tanks again, i can change AA again to a more aggressive one, will this be considered an attempt to t...
by magneto
Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 6265

Re: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio

Presumably the Bond funds will respond differently
and to varying degrees
in different environments, e.g. :-

+ Rising Interest Rates
+ Stocks slump (flight to safety)
+ Other

Would be interested to learn more about Vanguard's thinking behind the recommendation.
by magneto
Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1406

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

Yes I didn't express this correctly; I mean that using MA only as a timing indicator was better than adding a criterion based on CAPE to decide whether to be in or out of stocks. So his tests showed that using trend following only was better than combining it with CAPE. This is because the stock ma...
by magneto
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1406

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

But, how about this? Let's assume that the market is more likely enter a serious decline whenever CAPE is significantly elevated, as it appears to be now. If so, then going to cash when the market declines below it's MA might be a higher-probability strategy; i.e., more likely to work because the m...
by magneto
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 125
Views: 16335

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Have noticed presently, the relatively few apparently good value positions are those with serious clouds/doubts hanging over them!
This might be telling us more about markets than companies ?
by magneto
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1879

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

An intriguing thread. Confirming, denying or explaining EMH is way above this investor's pay-grade. What is puzzling is that perhaps while fundamentals may be unchanged, something in the world stirs investors' hopes or fears, and a change in attitude to Stock, Sector or Market may transpire. These c...
by magneto
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1544

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

I don't mean to criticize mentioning this article--I like financial porn as much as the next guy--but its main value, if it has any, is to illustrate the point that at any given instant in time there are huge differences in the predictions of the best informed and most knowledgeable observers. Of c...
by magneto
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4746

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

One simple point to hang on to, is that in an ideal world, the investor should only be selling Stocks if :- + Stocks are at an all-time high and also + Fully Valued Repeat :- + And also Fully Valued !!! Selling for anything else must on reflection be sub-optimal? This aim can lead investors to vario...
by magneto
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27572

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

What a relief that no 100%Stockers have chipped in. :o

But hang on a minute :!:
If the 100%Stockers are unusually absent, and posters mostly seem to be tending defensive; what might that portend :?:

But at least most here seem to have the grounding of an Investment Plan. :)
by magneto
Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

I' am going to fall back on Jack Bogle's statement of "I don't know anyone who can time the market or know anyone who knows anyone who can time the market". I guess I misunderstood the title of this blog. In my mind reducing sequence risk & market timing are 2 different things. In my account: My pl...
by magneto
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

" Often, strategies lose their effectiveness once observed." Momentum as far as can tell seems to be unique, in that the wider it is recognised, the more it succeeds (until it doesn't), as noting the presence of momentum in a security or group of securities, ever more climb aboard the bandwagon. So ...
by magneto
Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on the fence
Replies: 20
Views: 2500

Re: Sitting on the fence

As pointed out don't feel under pressure to conform to a single pattern/allocation set by others (no matter how well intentioned). Must be your decision with which sufficiently comfortable to be sure of 'staying the course', your course . Take some time to reflect. Plenty of good books out there, se...
by magneto
Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 4258

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

Look for a moment at the materials and objects you are wearing and those surrounding you. A high proportion is derived from oil, or uses oil in some way during manufacture. We are surely not going back to coal as a feedstock? The main transport role for oil will undoubtedly be less, but this investo...
by magneto
Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 7757

Re: Saving for the crash

Liquid portfolio approx at :- 25% Risk (=Stocks) 25% Defensives (=Bonds + Alt Fixed Income) 50% Cash (incl I-Bond type assets) and continuing to sell on rising markets from the risk-side. Quite content with the returns made over the last cycle. Valuations on the risk-side IMHO pushing to within 6% t...
by magneto
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 66
Views: 4086

Re: Automated Market Timing

From an old post :- Benjamin Graham has this to say in The Intelligent Investor. ‘Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings....
by magneto
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?
Replies: 156
Views: 17731

Re: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?

Yes, I feel like the biggest idiot especially in this bull market. I only started investing 3 years ago and got involved in high risk stocks (oil and biotech). Made some really bad picks and took a massive lost. I try to ignore thinking about how much I've lost because I feel ashamed and embarrasse...
by magneto
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?
Replies: 65
Views: 4784

Re: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?

Sometimes 'Market Timing' and 'Adaptive Value Investing' get mixed up. Ben Graham had this to say in The Intelligent Investor. ‘Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibil...
by magneto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 10893

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

An "active" fund that has a fairly mechanical selection criteria of a factor fund and a low expense ratio (e.g. 0.13% for Vanguards new single factor funds I think) is much less bad. And to a factor enthusiast/believer (not me, quite), worth the fairly small additional cost. That does indeed make s...
by magneto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 10893

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Vanguard UK have for a couple of years now offered four Global Factor ETFs.
Noticed the other day that these funds carry investor warning flags 'ACTIVE'.
How is BH philosophy to be reconciled with factor investing, if Vanguard see such funds as 'active' :?:
by magneto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 14047

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

But clearly, dividends are a fact of life when investing for many people. If I get a dividend from a fund held in a tax-advantaged account and just have the dividend automatically reinvested at NAV, then that's pretty much like not getting a dividend in the first place, so no harm and no foul as fa...
by magneto
Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 14047

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

In common with so many other dividend-allergic threads, left wondering why there is so much vehemence expressed against dividends. :?: Those in favour of dividends would welcome a 50% stock set-back, the dividend averse would presumably not? Might the plethora of anti-dividend sentiment be anything ...
by magneto
Sun Dec 03, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Avoid High Ranked Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 2152

Re: Larry Swedroe: Avoid High Ranked Funds

"Point 1. a mutual fund’s past performance not only fails to guarantee its future performance (as the required SEC disclaimer states), but has almost no value whatsoever as a predictor— Point 2. with the exception that poor performance, combined with high expenses, typically predicts future poor per...
by magneto
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in U.K. / USA
Replies: 6
Views: 517

Re: Investing in U.K. / USA

The Bogleheads guide to investing talks a lot about investing in domestic vs international stocks. I'm based in the U.K. So I'm guessing that when they talk about domestic stocks, they're talking about USA. My question is, should I treat it as if I'm in the USA and follow the portfolio advice they ...
by magneto
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 9149

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

As some famous person said (paraphrased), "If you want to invest in real estate, buy an REIT. REIT's never call you up in the middle of the night because their toilet isn't working." Come on now TN :D Let's demolish this oft repeated 'Straw Man' (or 'Red Herring' if preferred) once and for all. If ...
by magneto
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Market Expensive?
Replies: 18
Views: 1797

Re: Is the Market Expensive?

Stage 1 Yes the market is expensive, mainly IMHO and IOHO, because all competing assets (Cash excluded) are also expensive due to central banks QE, lo interest rates policies, etc. Stage 2 Q. When will the markets be less expensive? A. Haven't a clue :annoyed In retirement we are :- 25% Risk = Stoc...
by magneto
Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 9149

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

As some famous person said (paraphrased), "If you want to invest in real estate, buy an REIT. REIT's never call you up in the middle of the night because their toilet isn't working." Come on now TN :D Let's demolish this oft repeated 'Straw Man' (or 'Red Herring' if preferred) once and for all. If ...
by magneto
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 9149

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

Diversification. Won't always work when you need them as Stocks slump. But did work extremely well for us with yields on RE at one point (when Stocks were severely over-valued) exceeding 10X yields of Stocks. RE valuations (not pricing) like Stocks move in cycles. Sometimes the cycles coincide, some...
by magneto
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 31044

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

This Bull Market has certainly seemed to have lasted an extraordinary long time. Valuations for individual holdings we find are nearly all within 10% of, or above historic ceilings. When will it end? - Nobody can judge surely! Much has shifted from risk to defensives in our portfolio; and that proce...
by magneto
Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 4506

Re: International Bonds

Unhedged International Bonds may offer currency diversification with resultant rebalancing opportunities.
Unlikely to appeal to many/most investors on their supposedly defensive side.
But they are after all part of the total Global investable assets.
by magneto
Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slanting International geographically or regionally
Replies: 25
Views: 1305

Re: Slanting International geographically or regionally

Perspective from another non-US (UK) investor. We maintain specific allocations on the 'Risk = Stocks' side to :- + UK + Global + USA + Asia/Pacific + Europe + Emerging Markets The major decision has been the UK (Domestic) v International balance, as the currency swings there can come into play with...