Search found 784 matches

by magneto
Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adjust Bond Holdings?
Replies: 8
Views: 622

Re: Adjust Bond Holdings?

Some thoughts :- Not all buyers/holders in the Bond Market are private investors. Those other non-private buyers/holders may have entirely different reasons for selecting their Bonds? ST Bonds, as you well know, should have less volatility and may appeal to the "take your risk on the Stock-side...
by magneto
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 31
Views: 6284

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

As a personal decision, and as an exercise in "knowing thyself," I realized I am okay with stock volatility and declines, but am less okay with seeing losses on fixed income instruments like bonds whose yields aren't all that impressive to begin with. Deaconfan Useful reminder about FI. F...
by magneto
Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 187
Views: 14918

Re: Retreat to cash

Essentially what we may be talking about here is market direction or market valuations? Direction is sought by momentum (aka trend) followers. An uncomfortable place to be when mean reversion takes over! Valuation criteria can be conflicting and confusing, and long-term drifting. Is there an Investm...
by magneto
Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have low interest rates effected any internatinal stocks in the same way it has effected US dividend funds?
Replies: 7
Views: 756

Re: Have low interest rates effected any internatinal stocks in the same way it has effected US dividend funds?

I've been thinking about how interest rates are much lower or even negative in other parts of the world. How do investors there get "income"? From a UK perspective, if pushed to list in some kind of order, the present most attractive Income Seeking Assets to enable a UK Defensive Retiree ...
by magneto
Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation 3 years away from retirement
Replies: 11
Views: 1792

Re: Allocation 3 years away from retirement

OP. You are coming to much the same conclusion as Frank Armstrong. I.E. %s may not be the pragmatic answer in retirement. See his book 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18, and also his web-site and on-line book ‘Investment Strategies for the 21st Century’ at ‘Investorsolutions.com’; below is an extract...
by magneto
Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds suck
Replies: 46
Views: 6406

Re: Bonds suck

Maybe shorter duration would feel more like home?
by magneto
Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19386

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

goingup wrote:It's curious that no one complains when bonds fluctuate upward.


+1

Short duration Bonds not too bad!
We are tentatively dipping our toes into ST IG Corps.
But surely this negative scenario has much further to run?

Anyone else buying Bonds yet?
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 1880

Re: Barbell strategies?

I assume BH AA implementations are based on taking a middle-of-the-road approach to investing, e.g., some mix of total stock and total bond markets. This is in contrast to barbell strategies such as those espoused by Taleb and others that supposedly place greater emphasis on avoiding black swan eve...
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WOW, What a Total Bond and bonds in general drop!
Replies: 37
Views: 6008

Re: WOW, What a Total Bond and bonds in general drop!

Erwin wrote:Yesterday (11.9.16): Vanguard Total Bond -1%. So very unusual!


How is it looking Year on Year?
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are getting crushed...
Replies: 42
Views: 8876

Re: Bonds are getting crushed...

shak_VF wrote:the 30 yr treasury is down big today, down a full 3 3/32 - yield up to 2.78% 10 yr yield up to near 2%. A very fast move up to 2% for the 10 yr in a very short amount of time. I would think it is time to re-think bond allocations. I am re-thinking mine.


In which direction?
by magneto
Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just don't panic
Replies: 61
Views: 8723

Re: Just don't panic

A UK investor found this morning that VUSA the Vanguard S&P tracker moved down sharply then recovered a little. If the US market was closed, i.E. not moving, why did the tracker move? This movement is understandable from an anticipatory aspect. Also offers the investor a chance to trawl/fish for...
by magneto
Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Where are you going for income?
Replies: 102
Views: 14261

Re: Retirees: Where are you going for income?

From a UK perspective, if pushed to list in some kind of order, the present most attractive Income Seeking Assets to enable a defensive retiree to live within the portfolio 'natural yield', might list :- Infrastructure (CEICs) Renewable Energy (CEICs) Residential Real Estate direct REITs (esp Office...
by magneto
Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Multi Asset Help [UK investor]
Replies: 11
Views: 622

Re: Global Multi Asset Help [UK investor]

This is an interesting and thoughful proposed AA. Picking up on VT's post above after a quick glance on proposed AA, would agree the major potential flaw is the US allocation, which is way out re convention. But then maybe there are underlying views on this aspect? As a fellow UK investor, the bigge...
by magneto
Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decline in number of publicly traded companies in US
Replies: 2
Views: 556

Re: Decline in number of publicly traded companies in US

If such off-market ownership is found troubling, one solution is to add one or more of the Private Equity Closed End Funds. N.B. The Asset Class does not lend itself to OEICs comfortably due to illiquidity. But then if you think main markets are sufficiently volatile, PE is a surprise in waiting! Up...
by magneto
Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risk in buying sterling as a long term investment?
Replies: 16
Views: 1099

Re: Risk in buying sterling as a long term investment?

Playing currencies is basically gambling, no one really knows where this goes. +1 Currencies cannot be relied on to mean revert. Nisi's chart above demonstrates. Wind the clock back further to the early 1900s and £sterling could buy about US$4. My english grandfather who plied the North Atlantic se...
by magneto
Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camera recommendations- Not SLR
Replies: 52
Views: 3713

Re: Camera recommendations- Not SLR

There was a recent thread about SLR v Point and Shoot I was bitterly complaining about the difficulties of seeing the image on the viewing screen with P&S in sunny conditions, while the bulk of SLR was offputting. Several posters suggested electronic eye-level viewfinders as used on some P&S...
by magneto
Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental agent etiquette question
Replies: 13
Views: 2104

Re: Rental agent etiquette question

Afterthought

Who is going to draw up the tenancy contract?
by magneto
Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental agent etiquette question
Replies: 13
Views: 2104

Re: Rental agent etiquette question

So, have the friend go through your agent and rent the place. Problem solved. :happy Get the parties in touch and get it done. +1 There may be credit history checks/problems and other issues the agent may unearth. More importantly; it may be a good idea to build a satisfactory long-term relationshi...
by magneto
Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing When Currency Fluctuates
Replies: 10
Views: 438

Re: Currency

When rebalancing, you should convert all of the values into the same currency (using the current exchange rate), and look at the percentage value of each asset in that currency. It doesn't matter which currency you use - the percentages will be the same. This really set my head spinning! Let me kno...
by magneto
Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are implications of Jack Bogle's Morningstar interview
Replies: 39
Views: 5004

Re: What are implications of Jack Bogle's Morningstar interview

More specifically, if I buy the Bogle statement that real return will be about .5% on a 50-50 asset allocation (like mine) for the next decade how do I set my withdrawal rate accordingly? I am currenlly drawing down at a 3.3% rate. Is it time to serious lower that rate in light of the Boble intervi...
by magneto
Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer
Replies: 56
Views: 4431

Re: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer

We keep our old laptops (as the operating systems change ) for other purposes, so currently we have :- 1 - latest/newest for on-line work 1 - for critically secure information (never used on-line) 1 - for photo storage (never used on-line) Such a philosophy would create a physical storage problem us...
by magneto
Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash+Stocks Retirees, We Need To Talk!
Replies: 36
Views: 3794

Re: Cash+Stocks Retirees, We Need To Talk

We in retirement also are pretty much, not exactly, in the position described. Usually hold Gov't Stocks (Gilts here in the UK), but -ve real yields today make them a wasting asset in purchasing terms. US investors are a little more fortunate. If stocks are in one of three conditions at any point in...
by magneto
Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dividend index funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1820

Re: dividend index funds

Think you have had some good answers above,looking at the problem from most angles. We 'tilt' to yield to live off the 'natural yield' of our portfolio, simply because dividends come along on a regular calendar basis, whereas the capital gains do not. So we hold the broad market Stock Trackers AND s...
by magneto
Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using CAPE in choosing ETF (S&P500 vs total world)
Replies: 5
Views: 366

Re: Using CAPE in choosing ETF (S&P500 vs total world)

Tylenol Jones wrote:Thanks, so S&P is not necessarily 20% more overvalued than total world market?


It may or may not be.
It all hinges on growth in the respective markets.

A higher PE is usually paid for a higher growth company.
Same can apply to geographical regions.
by magneto
Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: House as Investment vs Stock Market.
Replies: 21
Views: 2587

Re: House as Investment vs Stock Market.

According to Case Shiller, American homes have appreciated between 0% to 2% above inflation. However, that is just capital appreciation. What about rental income - imputed or otherwise? +1 How Shiller of all people overlooked that key issue is beyond comprehension! Or did he overlook it? Offer an i...
by magneto
Fri Sep 23, 2016 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?
Replies: 26
Views: 2416

Re: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?

Yes, that's right, a prevailing yield increase of 10% would immediately drop the market value of already-issued 5-year-duration bonds by around 50%. ........ the higher yields would eventually make you whole, then better than whole. That's one way in which bonds are different from stocks. PJW This ...
by magneto
Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two questions ["Age in Bonds" vs. Risk Tolerance]
Replies: 24
Views: 1653

Re: Two questions

One thing you should think about is the fact that you have a pension. That may eliminate the need for you to hold bonds at all, depending on the terms of the pension. Bonds and pensions and social security are all fixed income assets that generate steady income. If you can cover your bare expenses ...
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9148

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

MOM is a short term phenomenon, securities that have done well (poorly) in the last year TEND TO continue to perform well (poorly) for about another 5 months on average. Contrarian investing (value) is a LONG TERM phenonomenon. Where things that have done poorly over the long term (like 5 years) te...
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9148

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Here in the UK Vanguard have, within the last year, introduced a Global Momentum Fund VMOM.

Performance to date so so, not covered itelf with glory.

Presumably Vanguard USA has similar offerings?
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never invest in ....... ?
Replies: 53
Views: 5542

Never invest in ....... ?

There are certain areas of Investment Possibilities that are generally advised here as 'No Go Areas'. Examples are :- - Private Equity - High Yield (Junk) Debt/Bonds The thought occurs that if everyone is carefully avoiding these areas, then there must arrive some price (low) level at which these sp...
by magneto
Sat Sep 17, 2016 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out
Replies: 19
Views: 1106

Re: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out

1. Out of curiosity, how do you fight the urge to sell-off when you have such a large draw-down and go into defensive mode (at the worst possible moment)? 2. Can you recommend any investment book on bonds? 3. I am currently reading Phil Fisher's Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. Thanks! 1. Have a...
by magneto
Sat Sep 17, 2016 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9148

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

"In a sense, the market is always a contest between investors and speculators. The real investor, looking chiefly to interest return, but by no means unwilling to make a profit by buying low and selling high, is ready, perhaps to buy his favorite stock at a price which will yield him six percen...
by magneto
Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a 20% swing in my asset allocation
Replies: 41
Views: 3216

Re: Considering a 20% swing in my asset allocation

I am 64 years old, I retired two years ago, and my net worth is about $1.6M excluding my home. It is beginning to make sense to me to change my asset allocation from 50% equity/50% fixed income, to 30%/70%. Please tell me if my rationale makes sense to you. within two years our Social Security/pens...
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing
Replies: 41
Views: 2591

Re: market timing

Market timing. Benjamin Graham has this to say in The Intelligent Investor. "Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings....
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the upcoming bond bubble
Replies: 16
Views: 2113

Re: the upcoming bond bubble

I know that the general sentiment on this board is that there is no bond bubble and nothing to worry about in that sector, but let's pretend for a second that there actually was one. What do you suppose this would do to the rest of the market? Would the shock rout stocks as well? Not sure about the...
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing
Replies: 41
Views: 2591

Re: market timing

The main methods of allocating Assets :- 1. Tactical Asset Allocation aka Market Timing An endeavour to seek out the most or least promising Asset going forward for short-term outperformance, using such tools as economic criteria, valuations, or plain moving averages/accel/decel chartism. Can someti...
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out
Replies: 19
Views: 1106

Re: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out

"@magneto: When you put in a limit order do you try and match the NAV or what do you mean by deal at specified prices? I normally just put in a market order. Happy to hear how I could improve this." HeroicGlaedr The main advantage for a limit order is the ability to define/control the pric...
by magneto
Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best books [on investing strategy]
Replies: 26
Views: 2361

Re: Best books [on investing strategy]

Worth considering :-

The Informed Investor by Frank Armstrong
A Wealth of Common Sense by Ben Carlson
The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks
Guide to Investment Strategy by Peter Stanyer
by magneto
Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing
Replies: 27
Views: 4198

Re: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing

Overbalancing is a name given by Wm B, to what many others will know as Dynamic Asset Allocation, a form of Variable Ratio Formula Investment Plan, which has been around for at least eighty years plus. And viewed (and employed) with renewed interest by venerable institutions after the 1929 debacle. ...
by magneto
Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?
Replies: 45
Views: 4450

Re: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?

Throughout the day, I usually keep an eye on the S&P 500 average and the 10 yr US Treasury yield. Today, the S&P 500 is down big (-2.45%). but the 10-Yr Bond yield is UP 6 basis points (which mean bond prices are down.) The reason I am so concerned, is that I have a significant amount of mo...
by magneto
Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out
Replies: 19
Views: 1106

Re: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out

I am currently thinking of purchasing the S&P 500 ETF (30%), the FTSE All Share Index (40%) and the Fidelity World Fund (30%), which give me very low TERs and reasonable international exposure. For the moment I would leave my Swiss investments as is. Some open questions: Question 1: MSCI World ...
by magneto
Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio overlap
Replies: 2
Views: 295

Re: Portfolio overlap

Hello. I wonder if you guys could give me some advice on how to diversify my (hypothetical) portfolio and get rid of some overlapping stocks. Vanguard FTSE ALL WORLD 70% Fidelity UK index 30% Since VWRL has around ~7% UK equities, by also holding Fidelity UK it means I will be double buying the sam...
by magneto
Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for natural resource equities
Replies: 12
Views: 1187

Re: The case for natural resource equities

I will just say that if you are a bit contrarian in your thinking and you are looking for assets to buy on the cheap, natural resource stocks might be a good place to invest. The problem, and I don't see it as a huge problem, is that commodity producing stocks are still stocks and will still mostly...
by magneto
Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle stock valuation model
Replies: 13
Views: 1635

Re: Bogle stock valuation model

Another thank-you to Larry re the problems with CAPE. Have long struggled to accomodate this figure in DAA thought processes. Some light is now beginning to shine through. In addition the E measure seems itself open to a variety of interpretations? So even basic PE1 thus can vary from source to sour...
by magneto
Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convincing spouse to sell losing investment
Replies: 52
Views: 3220

Re: Convincing spouse to sell losing investment

Several things unknown :- + Are the stocks concerned throwing off useful dividends? . What is the dividend cover and trend of cover looking like? - Have the stocks suffered dividend cuts? + What are the chances of recovery? (difficult that one) - Overall how well diversified is the total portfolio, ...
by magneto
Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund fees unclear, is something hidden? [UK]
Replies: 16
Views: 1337

Re: Fund fees unclear, is something hidden? [UK]

Little confused by the discusssion so far! 'Platform' fees relate to Unit Trusts (Mutual Funds) and similar; not Stocks, ETFs, Investment Trusts, etc. This is why some as noted above prefer ETFs to Unit Trusts. But if HMWO is an ETF, which it seems to be, why pay any 'platform' charges at all? A str...
by magneto
Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension meets my needs. Skip bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 3011

Re: Pension meets my needs. Skip bonds?

I am retired, now 15+ years, and my inflation-adjusted pension meets all our ongoing needs, so investmenting really is for heirs or some major unforeseeable calamity that destroys the pension stream................. Question is, why not put all my investments in a worldwide equity ETF, like Vanguar...
by magneto
Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy cash or use a loan to buy a property
Replies: 15
Views: 1427

Re: Should I buy cash or use a loan to buy a property

If a long term aim is a 'Well Balanced Portfolio' then we might be looking for exposure to the four main income producing Asset Classes :- + Stocks + Bonds + Real Estate + Cash How best can this be achieved? Has any one has proposed yet taking out a part mortgage? This would provide some flexibility...
by magneto
Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes this time really is different
Replies: 41
Views: 5215

Re: Sometimes this time really is different

Many economists and economic historians attribute much of the erratic behavior before the mid 30s to the gold standard. Although there's always talk about returning to the gold standard on the one hand and the emergence of bitcoin, etc., on the other hand, I do not see a change in the currency regi...

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