Search found 947 matches

by magneto
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7828

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

Often observed that when buying we generally take note of price.
Why should Stocks be any different.
Prices at the Japan peak had careful investors running for the hills albeit probably early.
by magneto
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better investments than the stock market?
Replies: 13
Views: 2279

Re: Better investments than the stock market?

To reach a holistic view on Stocks try all the recommended BH books and articles, and then read :- 'Yes, You Can Time the Market' by Stein and De Muth published 2003 One takeaway might be that the different Asset Classes dance to their own valuation rhythms, so from time to time opportunities arise ...
by magneto
Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent windfall and the current stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1151

Re: Recent windfall and the current stock market

I'm curious about your opinion on how you would invest a windfall($25k) given today's stock market conditions. Would you put it to work in the market given today's valuations, or would you place it in an alternative investment? Asset Allocation can be broken down into three questions :- 1. The desi...
by magneto
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Property - Continue to Rent or Sell
Replies: 20
Views: 1702

Re: Rental Property - Continue to Rent or Sell

Since it's not nearby, perhaps it's time to sell, and invest that money elsewhere? +1 Whether invest the proceeds in to another direct residential property, or other, depends to a degree on the rest of the portfolio. Direct Residential Real Estate useful diversifier with a sufficiently large portfo...
by magneto
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2836

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

I guess we all have to give up and hire an FA. Does anyone know of a FA who doesn't have his/her own biases? Yes seemingly each investor type is riddled with defects, and needs the strong guidance of an FA. QUOTE "Conservative Investors Their risk tolerance is low and they tend to make emotional er...
by magneto
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2207

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Suggest may depend on :-
1. What the rest of the porfolio looks like (direct RE can be a useful income producing diversifier).
2. Whether prepared to be patient, bearing in mind QE, etc, has pushed up all Asset Class pricing, and wait for better times?
by magneto
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shifting from Intermediate to Short-term Bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1702

Re: Shifting from Intermediate to Short-term Bonds

Depends on the purpose of the Bonds.
If purely defensive, then for Bonds, ST IG is the logical place to be at all times.
If speculative, then LT are of interest, but remember that -ve correlation with Stocks is not a given.
IT IG neither fish nor fowl ? Leads some investors to 'Barbell'.
by magneto
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6856

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Some thoughts from Frank Armstrong :- https://investorsolutions.com/knowledge-center/retirement-articles/constructing-an-effective-retirement-portfolio/ Investors who prefer a permanent Constant Ratio, may find some dificulty with :- "A far superior alternative strategy would treat the equity and bo...
by magneto
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5904

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

When we're in a stock bull market such as we currently are, some investors loose site of the consequences of a bear market on a stock heavy, indexed portfolio that by its very nature takes no steps to mitigate losses during bear markets. Beyond Asset Allocation; there is the less discussed issue as...
by magneto
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9208

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

rgs92 wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:27 pm
The thought that selling stocks when needed "and now the market is down" is market timing and this should be avoided. Just sell what you need regardless of where the market is. Sell in proportion to your entire asset allocation.
Price matters ???
by magneto
Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does technical data matter?
Replies: 16
Views: 835

Re: Does technical data matter?

Seems to matter occasionally, to measure investor's enthusiasm or other, esp Momentum now duly glorified as a 'Factor'. From bitter experience :- Value = OK'ish Value + Momentum = Better The foolishness creeps in using TA without any reference to Fundamentals. But with Gold, Commodities, etc, there ...
by magneto
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2269

Re: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation

For those who invest in real estate, how do you calculate it and integrate it with a bogleheads style asset allocation? Do you just count the cumulative amount of cash invested? Or do you approximate current real estate value of principle paid? I don't count it in my AA at all, I count it as a sepa...
by magneto
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you change your AA in discrete chunks or gradually?
Replies: 20
Views: 1488

Re: Do you change your AA in discrete chunks or gradually?

Poster in a much older thread, suggested moving 10% of deviation from target per month. Three potential advantages seem to be :- + Investor psychological balance + Momentum harvesting + Investment System stability Purists might object target never reached. But markets have a habit of coming to meet ...
by magneto
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Rate Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 4532

Re: Rising Interest Rate Strategy

Agree with above comments about holding shorter duration Bonds and/or Cash. Presently hesitating about moving to longer duration Treasuries total, then hesitating again, as Vanguard fund in question UK:VUTY, seems to have lost 4.4% in US$, in just over 6 months. Cash or short duration in comparison ...
by magneto
Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?
Replies: 62
Views: 5008

Re: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?

With any car purchase, prefer to buy towards the end of a production run, rather than towards the beginning.
More info then available.
Not trendy though 8-)
by magneto
Fri Jun 01, 2018 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2141

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

I am 30, have maxed out all retirement accounts and currently have a two fund portfolio comprising of the total stock market us(75%) and total stock market international. After reading the 3 fund portfolio, it sounds like I should also be investing in bonds? The reason I ask, is I am young and in t...
by magneto
Mon May 28, 2018 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: only iShares ETF's, risks?
Replies: 11
Views: 1908

Re: only iShares ETF's, risks?

After analyzing (costs, taxes, diversification, ...) all kind of ETF's I always end up with iShare ETF's. So I bought a mix of a couple of tens of Thousands euro in CSX5, CSPX, IWDA, EMIM. Is it dangerous to only invest in one provider -> iShares? Or is that risk negligible. As in other areas of li...
by magneto
Sun May 06, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's Formula -- Still Applicable, Right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1663

Re: Graham's Formula -- Still Applicable, Right?

Too rigid historic benchmarks do not allow for the tendency of the valuation median anchors to drag this way and that from decade to decade. Take another look at :- http://www.multpl.com/ How do things seem casting an eye back over the most recent 10 to 20 years? Somewhat high maybe? - But need the ...
by magneto
Thu May 03, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1129

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

On a company level as noted, PE on its' own is pretty meaningless. Of more use :- 1. PE to Growth (PEG Ratio) already mentioned. 2. PE v its' historic range can indicate fluctuations in value 3. Or again PEG ratio v its' historic range. Often observed that the E (Earnings) are very much what account...
by magneto
Wed May 02, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Portfolio confusion
Replies: 22
Views: 1182

Re: UK Portfolio confusion

Prefer also to allocate amongst regions directly, seeking rebalancing opportunities. But after twelve months this will be a 100% Stocks (Risk) portfolio? No 'defensives' (Bonds/Real Estate/Renewables//Infrastructure/Cash/Etc) to act as a counter-balance. So not a 'balanced portfolio'? Will calm prev...
by magneto
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018?
Replies: 7
Views: 1042

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018?

Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018? Which one are you guys doing ........ and investing in general? Before I always lump sumed at the beginning of each year but this year due to drop I am wondering if I should dollar-cost average. What do you guys think? What are you guys doing? 'Time diversif...
by magneto
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bonner: what's your take?
Replies: 38
Views: 3889

Re: Bill Bonner: what's your take?

Bill Bonner views are usually well-informed and can interest. But as regards the future he may be incorrect, correct, or only partially correct. We have to admit that we simply don't know. :annoyed One idea to such an investment 'timing' predicament is to 'time diversify', using DCA, Value Averaging...
by magneto
Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6763

Re: A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

Will add if price weakens further, or reduce if see significant gains. Called 'rebalancing'. Just FYI, changing your allocation is NOT "rebalancing". Rebalancing is balancing back to your original allocation. For instance if your AA is 50/50 and stocks are up 15% in a year, and bonds are up 3%, you...
by magneto
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 13
Views: 1198

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Decided to go 90 percent equities. I have read in few posts and Tim Hales book that for someone with such a high equities holding as this longer term bond's/gilts may provide a better diversifier for equity falls. Am considering the vanguard inflation linked gilt index. If these interest rate rises...
by magneto
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6763

Re: A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

Topped up Russia this week on the sharp decline. Levelled at long-term target circa 2 to 2.5% of Stocks. Will add if price weakens further, or reduce if see significant gains. Called 'rebalancing'. Trying to focus on fundamentals rather than narrative - but that's far from easy! The Rouble may damag...
by magneto
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?
Replies: 69
Views: 5535

Re: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?

If backtesting were useless, how many would be invested in equities? Historically, people did invest in equities, even without back-testing. When people were investing in stocks in the 1920s, they did so without the benefit of decades of historical data. The Composite index(a S&P predecessor) wasn'...
by magneto
Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor
Replies: 11
Views: 1253

Re: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor

To quote :- "Considerations 1. I don't have control over the pension fund asset allocation (naturally). 2. I think 25% of my investments in UK stocks is more than enough, so I want to avoid UK stocks in the parts of my portfolio I can control. 3. I strongly subscribe to the Boglehead philosophy." In...
by magneto
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??
Replies: 54
Views: 6954

Re: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??

There is an awkward issue here, that have not observed mentioned thus far. Namely 'momentum'. This may be troubling the OP? Since Stocks have no 'mass', then theoretically Stock momentum should not exist? But unfortunately it does appear to exist, and has been latched on by some respected BH authors...
by magneto
Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA falling bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2653

Re: DCA falling bond funds?

InvestInLife wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:49 am
The newbie in me is tired and sad from selling new equities at a loss for the sake of tidying up my portfolio.
Something seems to be horribly wrong with the Investment Plan. :?
See previous post, esp re Bond duration.
by magneto
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey on Bonds
Replies: 107
Views: 10114

Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

This is, and has been, a common refrain for some time. Reminder :- "As a general rule, for every 1% change in interest rates (increase or decrease), a bond’s price will change approximately 1% in the opposite direction, for every year of duration. If a bond has a duration of five years and interest ...
by magneto
Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett - Bonds / Risk / Portfolio Ratio
Replies: 9
Views: 1642

Re: Warren Buffett - Bonds / Risk / Portfolio Ration

deleted - must read posts more carefully
by magneto
Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4752

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

From an earlier post with similar OP concerns. Some comment around this subject, reminds investors that since 1980 ish Bonds have been in a benign environment with steadily falling yields and rising prices , see chart :- http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate The two or three fund portfolio mig...
by magneto
Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of interest rate hikes on US bonds lessons for EU investors
Replies: 13
Views: 961

Re: Effect of interest rate hikes on US bonds

Some comment around this subject, reminds investors that since 1980 ish Bonds have been in a benign environment with steadily falling yields and rising prices , see chart :- http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate The two or three fund portfolio might over that period take advantage of ever risi...
by magneto
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1700

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Investors have a few options. 1. First and foremost, you can add assets outside the United States to your portfolio. 2. You can also include things that are neither stocks nor bonds. 3. If you want to include something in your portfolio that is not only not correlated to stocks, but negatively corr...
by magneto
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 33
Views: 3769

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

lazyday wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:34 am
To me it's reasonable to cut equity a little because of poor expected returns. But I wouldn't gamble on getting a chance to buy back in cheaper.
But maybe at more attractive valuations?

Turning the question on its' head; does anyone think Stocks are cheap today?
by magneto
Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1486

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

Do as you want as it is your money, but whatever you are doing IS market timing as you are making guesses on valuations. Simple as that. You may be correct or you may be completely wrong. You may make a ton of money, but you may end up broke. If you have that fallback inheritance go for it, but if ...
by magneto
Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1486

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

After reading the Intelligent Investor, I am thinking about switching from a set allocation of 80% stocks, 20% bonds, to a more dynamic allocation that would change slightly based on interest rates and the Schiller PE. I am thinking of something like the following: 1. If the Schiller PE is less tha...
by magneto
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8787

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

Firstly the need to understand 'risk'. No matter what the academics might opine; it ain't just volatility. Howard Marks suggests the risk that matters most is the risk of permanent loss. Posters above have picked up on some horrifying worst case scenarios. And for the value concious investor, there ...
by magneto
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feeling good about the market's direction. Wish it would drop more...
Replies: 14
Views: 2507

Re: Feeling good about the market's direction. Wish it would drop more...

As an 'Adaptive Value Investor' a la Ben Graham, quite content to be able to deploy some of the defensive (income producing) reserves into Stocks, after what seems a long wait. High valuations had kept stock target to circa 25%, now lifted to circa 30%. (Max 75%). Will only move monies at 10% of dev...
by magneto
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1910

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

Since confusion continues and suspect will always continue :( This quote from Benjamin Graham in The Intelligent Investor may augment the points made by a few posters :- "Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent in...
by magneto
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1910

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

Suppose I have a 90:10 stock bond allocation. If I think that market is too overvalued right now and if I want to change the future contributions to be allocated 50:50, with hopes that if the market tanks again, i can change AA again to a more aggressive one, will this be considered an attempt to t...
by magneto
Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 7178

Re: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio

Presumably the Bond funds will respond differently
and to varying degrees
in different environments, e.g. :-

+ Rising Interest Rates
+ Stocks slump (flight to safety)
+ Other

Would be interested to learn more about Vanguard's thinking behind the recommendation.
by magneto
Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1754

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

Yes I didn't express this correctly; I mean that using MA only as a timing indicator was better than adding a criterion based on CAPE to decide whether to be in or out of stocks. So his tests showed that using trend following only was better than combining it with CAPE. This is because the stock ma...
by magneto
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1754

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

But, how about this? Let's assume that the market is more likely enter a serious decline whenever CAPE is significantly elevated, as it appears to be now. If so, then going to cash when the market declines below it's MA might be a higher-probability strategy; i.e., more likely to work because the m...
by magneto
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 140
Views: 21300

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Have noticed presently, the relatively few apparently good value positions are those with serious clouds/doubts hanging over them!
This might be telling us more about markets than companies ?
by magneto
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 2070

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

An intriguing thread. Confirming, denying or explaining EMH is way above this investor's pay-grade. What is puzzling is that perhaps while fundamentals may be unchanged, something in the world stirs investors' hopes or fears, and a change in attitude to Stock, Sector or Market may transpire. These c...
by magneto
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1688

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

I don't mean to criticize mentioning this article--I like financial porn as much as the next guy--but its main value, if it has any, is to illustrate the point that at any given instant in time there are huge differences in the predictions of the best informed and most knowledgeable observers. Of c...
by magneto
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 5750

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

One simple point to hang on to, is that in an ideal world, the investor should only be selling Stocks if :- + Stocks are at an all-time high and also + Fully Valued Repeat :- + And also Fully Valued !!! Selling for anything else must on reflection be sub-optimal? This aim can lead investors to vario...
by magneto
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 29421

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

What a relief that no 100%Stockers have chipped in. :o

But hang on a minute :!:
If the 100%Stockers are unusually absent, and posters mostly seem to be tending defensive; what might that portend :?:

But at least most here seem to have the grounding of an Investment Plan. :)
by magneto
Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4715

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

I' am going to fall back on Jack Bogle's statement of "I don't know anyone who can time the market or know anyone who knows anyone who can time the market". I guess I misunderstood the title of this blog. In my mind reducing sequence risk & market timing are 2 different things. In my account: My pl...