Search found 630 matches

by magneto
Sun May 01, 2016 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 35
Views: 3335

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Simple rule: never sell anything that's uptrending (i.e. price above its 100-200 day moving average) It has been suggested that stocks spend one third of time :- 1. At All Time Highs 2. Making New Lows 3. Recovering When a stock position is hitting All Time Highs seems the more sensible option of t...
by magneto
Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 17
Views: 2402

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

Not only Stocks and Bonds, but Housing also in many areas has seen valuations rise well above medians, due to Central Banks actions. Not so concerned about Stocks, for if we look back at 1999/2000 valuations, then Stocks are substantially below those extraordinary levels, even if as noted still abov...
by magneto
Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You
Replies: 23
Views: 1716

Re: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You

1. What adjustment and why? Stock shares are just passing hands from one set of people (via mutual funds and mutual fund flows) to others, at varying prices. 2. Other players include retail investors who invest in individual stocks, investment advisers/family offices managing pools of money for peo...
by magneto
Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You
Replies: 23
Views: 1716

Re: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You

[...]Charts like these are intriguing as to how the data is collected, and how "investors" are defined.[...] 1. It's simple, unambiguous, and relevant. They're tracking stock mutual fund flows (net inflows/outflows from investors putting more money or taking more money out of funds). 2. Y...
by magneto
Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You
Replies: 23
Views: 1716

Re: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You

This Fidelity report contains a great chart I haven't seen yet. It compares the inflows/outflows of investor cash to the market returns. Excellent chart to use as a demonstration of why market timing won't work. Quote from article :- "Investors as a whole tend to buy investments that have been...
by magneto
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "For bondholders, rising interest rates can have an upside"
Replies: 25
Views: 2768

Re: "For bondholders, rising interest rates can have an upside"

Good timing for me. I spoke with a financial advisor and he said absolutely do not put money into bonds right now with the interest rates so low. 1. He said it would be better (assuming i was willing to risk it) to put it all in index funds for the time being and wait until bonds are better; 2. he ...
by magneto
Sat Apr 23, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Have a Near Retirement Strategy for Sequence of Return Risk?
Replies: 88
Views: 7372

Re: Anyone Have a Near Retirement Strategy for Sequence of Return Risk?

Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18, is always a good starting point.

All Best
by magneto
Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 526
Views: 57656

Re: Have you upgrade to Windows 10?

No: Present laptop running fine on 7. If it ain't broke, don't fix it! So declining the constant "upgrade" offers from MS. We tend to buy new laptops on a fairly regular basis, so will adopt 10 only with the next new laptop purchase, unless 11 is out by then! Run all serious confidential d...
by magneto
Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is "wrong" with having more funds in a portfolio?
Replies: 70
Views: 3614

Re: What is "wrong" with having more funds in a portfolio?

+ More funds = More rebalancing opportunities. - Downside = High maintenance The investor will have to keep a close eye on price swings on a more frequent basis.. - More trading costs, but this should be outweighed by rebalancing bonuses if well executed. It is not for everybody! We currently run 21...
by magneto
Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Irregular Withdrawal Rates in Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 1203

Re: Irregular Withdrawal Rates in Retirement

Suggest Frank Armstong's book 'The Informed Investor' as a starting point.

Good Luck
by magneto
Sat Apr 16, 2016 3:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: grateful for any input on a major, urgent real estate decision
Replies: 75
Views: 4940

Re: grateful for any input on a major, urgent real estate decision

Haven't read the whole of this long thread, but do note some extremely good advice is given in this difficult situation. Putting some numbers (real yields) on the assets involved might help? Fair Annual Rent/Proposed price for house, would give a real % yield figure for the asset (rents tend to rise...
by magneto
Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transitioning to 3 fund portfolio - Sell energy now?
Replies: 15
Views: 940

Re: Transitioning to 3 fund portfolio - Sell energy now?

I just unloaded them. The whole reason of the revamp of my portfolio was to simplify it and remove a lot of the emotion that goes into investing decisions. Keeping them or buying more because it is "cheap" or trying to figure out when it is at the peak to sell are reasons I am going away ...
by magneto
Sun Apr 10, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds and reaching for Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 908

Re: Bond Funds and reaching for Yield

Wm Bernstein in 'Four Pillars', amongst others says keep all Bonds short, then look at spread between Corps and Treasuries to decide how to allocate between them. I.E. base allocation on spread offered at that point in time. Certainly it is a concern Corps (even short) may slump a little (?) when st...
by magneto
Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate investing for retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1480

Re: Real estate investing for retirement

A 'Well Balanced Portfolio' will IMHO have exposure to all four main income producing asset classes (stocks/bonds/cash/real estate). It is not so much about opimisation as diversification and hence safety. The allocated percentages are where difficult questions arise! Whether or not the hassle of be...
by magneto
Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short or Intermediate-term bonds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1336

Re: Short or Intermediate-term bonds?

Thanks 'livesoft' for that insight. Have always regarded stocks as the main driver for the profits of the porfolio. Bonds and Cash as a temporary resting place when stock valuations higher, which incurs stock greater downside risk and lower expected returns. The one thing not wanted from bonds is fo...
by magneto
Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Couple needs some good advice from Bogleheads
Replies: 30
Views: 2818

Re: Couple needs some good advice from Bogleheads

I'm looking for advice on what we do with our cash in the current economic environment. 1. Should we pay off our mortgage completely or down to $1M where we can still get interest deduction on taxes? 2. Should we invest all cash thinking that over long-term it will appreciate? I have moderate risk ...
by magneto
Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets?
Replies: 15
Views: 1355

Re: Emerging Markets?

I had in the past held a 10% allocation in Emerging Markets (SFENX, Schwab Fundamental Emg Mkt Large Co Index, expense ration of .49%) in the taxable account, which I liquidated last fall to capture some tax losses to offset gains elsewhere. I would like to begin adding back and have a few question...
by magneto
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?
Replies: 84
Views: 4569

Re: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?

If we are looking contrarian-wise for a beaten down country/currency, then Russia has yet to be mentioned. :!: I beg to differ. For instance, take Russia. Does it have the highest potential future growth and profitability? Probably not. But valuations are so low that maybe it will have the best inv...
by magneto
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars with low profile tires
Replies: 23
Views: 1582

Re: Cars with low profile tires

Am very much with the OP on this one. The trend over the past few decades to low profile sacrifices comfort to overall handling. The vertical damping is thrown almost entirely onto the car suspension system, which may struggle to cope (esp with the higher frequency shocks). Have encountered others w...
by magneto
Sun Apr 03, 2016 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?
Replies: 84
Views: 4569

Re: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?

If we are looking contrarian-wise for a beaten down country/currency, then Russia has yet to be mentioned. :!:
However some recovery has already taken place.

The question might need refining as to whether we are supposed to be thinking short, medium or long term.
by magneto
Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor Larimore on Bear Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 3618

Re: Taylor Larimore on Bear Markets

Here is a question.... How likely is a properly diversified portfolio (assume 60/40 equity to bond ratio) likely to drop 89%, or even 50% today? There are far more ways to diversify today than we had in 1929-37, or even 1973-74. In the 2008 correction, my takeaway was that we saw a decline by just ...
by magneto
Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?
Replies: 22
Views: 2226

Re: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?

"Many great passive investing authors are changing their tune lately. They all cite the current "low return environment" as their reason for adding riskier investments. They say it is riskier "not" to do anything. Future returns are going to be slim." OP As far as stock...
by magneto
Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: leaving vanguard due to math errors / poor customer service?
Replies: 92
Views: 8841

Re: leaving vanguard due to math errors / poor customer service?

"Should I try switching from mutual funds to ETF's first? Most of my issues have been around distributions and cost basis, so I wonder if this stuff is handled any better on the ETF/brokerage side." OP That might be one solution if otherwise happy with Vanguard products. That then opens up...
by magneto
Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Time to Exchange Mutual Fund Shares for Those of a Different Fund
Replies: 6
Views: 528

Re: Best Time to Exchange Mutual Fund Shares for Those of a Different Fund

This is a similar (but different) problem to diversification and rebalancing. When the pricing of two funds or more diverge, it usually makes sense to rebalance from the stronger to the weaker, if the investor believes RTM applies, rather than lock-in losses on the weaker while moving on to the stro...
by magneto
Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you be a Boglehead and not hold international equity?
Replies: 38
Views: 3260

Re: Can you be a Boglehead and not hold international equity?

For the US investor the advice from John Bogle to ignore (or hold 20% maximum) International has been good advice to date. But :- + Will US stocks always continue to outperform or match International? + To turn the logic of this question on its' head; how can this advice be put into practice by a no...
by magneto
Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you changing your asset allocation?
Replies: 9
Views: 774

Re: Are you changing your asset allocation?

I am currently 50% bonds and commodities. 40% stock and 10% cash. I am thinking of reducing my stock exposure to 30%. My reason? I am concerned that the next president of the USA might be disastrous for the stock market. In fact, I think it is likely. Is anyone else considering reducing their expos...
by magneto
Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal Strategies for Larger Purchases after Retiring
Replies: 39
Views: 2665

Re: Withdrawal Strategies After Retiring

Suggest Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' has one of the better strategies for the retiree.

A two bucket approach, it aims to avoid the pitfall of selling stocks at distressed prices. ("Dollar Cost Ravaging").

All Best
by magneto
Wed Mar 23, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK investment trusts
Replies: 4
Views: 249

Re: UK investment trusts

Thanks. I haven't invested anything yet, but am comparing an etf to an investment trust and trying to decide between the two. The IT does have some attractive qualities like gearing and using reserves to maintain rising dividends but the expense ratio is 30 basis points lower with the etf. Maybe a ...
by magneto
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can we see if stock markets are about to crash?
Replies: 52
Views: 3963

Re: How can we see if stock markets are about to crash?

What indicators do you personally track to identify when market is about to crash? What advice can you provide to understand market conjuncture better? The implied logic here is the logic of the herd : I.E. :- Sell it's going down :!: Buy it's going up :!: which ends up with the investor buying hig...
by magneto
Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis
Replies: 104
Views: 7382

Re: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis

Surprised so few of the many experienced posters here give such little weight to rebalancing bonuses. :!: Rather than data-mine if the experienced investor look to the history of their own assets, then rebalancing bonuses must surely have occured?. If not something is adrift. :?: As investors, Volat...
by magneto
Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the market sentiment always in "bubble mode"?
Replies: 12
Views: 798

Re: Is the market sentiment always in "bubble mode"?

BH's : We have a problem :!: Our valuation measures seem to be broken/or at least telling us very different stories. CAPE and q suggest stocks remain quite fully valued. However PE1 and DY paint a more subdued picture. Suggest that on this occasion PE1 and DY might be the more helpful :?: We could b...
by magneto
Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: locking in my losses
Replies: 18
Views: 1713

Re: locking in my losses

I would like to simplify my 13 fund slice and dice portfolio (50% bonds, 50% equities) to a 3 or 4 fund portfolio. My portfolio was designed by a financial adviser that I no longer use back in 2012. Out of the 13 funds, 4 funds are down (TIPS, world bond fund, emerging markets, gold) since creation...
by magneto
Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging Foreign Currency: 0%, 50% or 100%?
Replies: 24
Views: 2109

Re: Hedging Foreign Currency: 0%, 50% or 100%?

Generally when seeking out the elusive Rebalancing Bonuses, the investor will hold volatile assets together with low volatility assets as a counterweight. So where Stocks are the volatile element of the portfolio, suggest the more volatile are the stocks the better the end result. :!: The additional...
by magneto
Thu Mar 10, 2016 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping a Big House as an Inflation Hedge
Replies: 67
Views: 5032

Re: Keeping a Big House as an Inflation Hedge

I meant a 6 bedroom big (also valuable) house for two persons, after the kids moved out. We are thinking about downsizing, but also want to keep the house for possible hedge against the inflation or for long term care insurance. Or we just want to find some positive reasons for not downsizing the h...
by magneto
Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for retiree with pension
Replies: 27
Views: 2172

Re: Asset allocation for retiree with pension

For retirees the best advice have seen to date is from Frank Armstrong in 'The Informed Investor'. Rather than fret about AA%s, concentrate instead on the main issue. Keep in short term bonds and/or cash, sufficient capital to meet 5 to 7 years income needs (therefore deduct pension in OP case). Ke...
by magneto
Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS versus Corporate Bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1671

Re: TIPS versus Corporate Bonds

Prefer to keep Corps short and IG to minimise volatility (i.e. keep volatility to stocks side). Then Short IG Corps can sit happily alongside TIPS, and the investor is covered and can respond to however inflation plays out. For a Well Balanced Portfolio the choice is not TIPS versus Corps but some o...
by magneto
Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for retiree with pension
Replies: 27
Views: 2172

Re: Asset allocation for retiree with pension

For retirees the best advice have seen to date is from Frank Armstrong in 'The Informed Investor'. Rather than fret about AA%s, concentrate instead on the main issue. Keep in short term bonds and/or cash, sufficient capital to meet 5 to 7 years income needs (therefore deduct pension in OP case). Kee...
by magneto
Thu Mar 03, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do if bonds have negative returns?
Replies: 58
Views: 6138

Re: What to do if bonds have negative returns?

Negative yields do seem to be creeping in. What matters however is the real yield (i.e. nominal YTM less inflation). Certain countries do seem to be indicating the possibliity of deflation, but not all. A very mixed and confusing picture. :!: As investors, inflation expectations can be key to the de...
by magneto
Wed Feb 17, 2016 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times article: 100% Stock Allocation in Retirement]
Replies: 102
Views: 8701

Re: All your portfolio in stocks!

In today's New York Times David Levine argues cogently for a total or near-total stock portfolio. He cites Warren Buffett's 90% allocation, but does not discuss individual situations that might make this unwise. Any reactions, hopefully more informed than what I could offer. Obviously not everyone ...
by magneto
Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just don't understand bonds...
Replies: 27
Views: 4661

Re: I just don't understand bonds...

Like yourself OP this investor did not get bonds :!: and simply held stocks, (real estate) and cash Having learnt so much about bonds from the threads on this forum, we do now hold bonds alongside substantial cash. The decision doesn't have to be simply bonds or cash. Why not hold both. :?: With the...
by magneto
Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ROOKIE UK Investor - which bond fund should I buy?
Replies: 4
Views: 309

Re: ROOKIE UK Investor - which bond fund should I buy?

I am struggling a bit to understand which bond fund should I buy in light of the current level of interest rates... I have been considering the VG funds at the link below but cannot decide on which one :? For this UK investor when reviewed in October 2015, bond funds of interest included :- Gilts T...
by magneto
Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?
Replies: 47
Views: 2875

Re: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?

Planned Action : To continue to buy at the rate of 10% of deviation per mon That's interesting. So if you are out of balance by 5% you buy/sell 0.5%? Do I have that right? Then if the market doesn't move you get back in balance in ten months. (Based on a linear purchase. If you take a 1/10 step eve...
by magneto
Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?
Replies: 47
Views: 2875

Re: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?

As a valuation based (ultra-passive/cautious) Dynamic Asset Allocator, and being in retirement :- Stock Target 36.63% (normal expected range 25% - 50%) Present Stock position 29.33% (in spite of recent progressive buying). Current out of balance 7.3%. Planned Action : To continue to buy at the rate ...
by magneto
Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: buy-and-hold, vs more active mgt....question
Replies: 23
Views: 1848

Re: buy-and-hold, vs more active mgt....question

In life when prices are reduced we may stock up on non-perishable goods, and less so when fully priced. IMHO stocks are no different. Valuations are key to expected returns and downside risk. :?: Adjusting stock holding in line with valuations is often scorned and rejected as being active. But it ca...
by magneto
Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein's "If You Can" Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 6437

Re: William Bernstein's "If You Can" Portfolio

Hello. I have a question about William Bernstein's suggested portfolio for a 25 year old. Here is what he suggests: 1/3 Total US Stock Market 1/3 Total International Stock Market 1/3 Total Bond Market He's suggesting 33% in bonds. This is even more conservative than Bogle's "Age In Bonds"...
by magneto
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]
Replies: 14
Views: 1026

Re: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]

We don't seem to be gaining much traction on the DIY option. So taking Alex's and CottonSeeds suggestions above as a starting point, the following progressively complex portfolios, or a blend, using ETFs might suit. Option 1 70% VWRL Global Stocks 30% VGOV or IGLT UK Gov't Bonds (Gilts) Option 2 12%...
by magneto
Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age did you retire
Replies: 84
Views: 6778

Re: What age did you retire

Retired 1992 aged 49 and my wife 45, and how we regret not having worked in the interim :wink:
by magneto
Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]
Replies: 14
Views: 1026

Re: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]

Paul Claireaux may be able to point you in a suitable direction as regards an adviser, and on other matters. WARNING - THIS INVESTOR DOES NOT HAVE ANY FIRST HAND EXPERIENCE WITH PAUL Paul's books are worth a read, as you have already read Tim Hale, and Paul's thoughts might suit your personality :?:...
by magneto
Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just not interested any more [in investing]
Replies: 42
Views: 7480

Re: Just not interested any more [in investing]

I guess the whole Boglehead goal is to spend less time worrying about investing etc...and more time living your life....I get that...I didn't expect to become so disinterested in everything finance / investing related. Is this a bad thing? Has anyone else experienced something similar....I see so m...

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