Search found 643 matches

by magneto
Sun May 29, 2016 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 166
Views: 37107

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

Hi Sheepdog, We retired in 1992 and we do not have a set allocation % planned out year by year! Such an approach would assume knowledge of the future and the Sequence of Returns awaiting around the corner! OK to use Constant Ratios in accumulation, but potentially dangerous in retirement as per your...
by magneto
Sun May 29, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much do costs matter?
Replies: 20
Views: 973

Re: How much do costs matter?

Costs do matter as highlighted so dramatically in the table posted above. Given the choice between two cap-weighted funds tracking the same index, lower cost wins every day. Now the buts! 1. Certain parts of the world or sectors or tilts can be difficult to access with trackers alone. There again co...
by magneto
Thu May 26, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OpenPath Real Estate Investing, how to evaluate private equity?
Replies: 13
Views: 1392

Re: OpenPath Real Estate Investing, how to evaluate private equity?

It occurs that there are two separate issues here :- 1. Real Estate is one of the four main income producing Asset Classes. Worth thinking about in a balanced portfolio, either direct ownership or through a reputable easily understood fund with long-term track record and transparent business model. ...
by magneto
Wed May 25, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Puzzle of Bonds v Stocks
Replies: 5
Views: 265

Duration Puzzle of Bonds v Stocks

This week in his commentary, John Hussman returns to the theme of attributing a duration to Stocks. "At a 2% dividend yield on the S&P 500, the effective duration of equities works out to about 50 years. At a more normal 4% dividend yield, the duration works out to be about 25 years. That m...
by magneto
Sat May 21, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Glide Path: Do you have set allocation percentages planned out by year?
Replies: 23
Views: 960

Re: Glide Path: Do you have set allocation percentages planned out by year?

We retired in 1992. and No : we do not have a set allocation % planned out year by year! Such an approach would assume knowledge of the future and the Sequence of Returns awaiting around the corner! OK to use Constant Ratios in accumulation, but potentially dangerous in retirement, unless the invest...
by magneto
Sun May 15, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to treat a 2nd home or rental property in considering asset allocation?
Replies: 11
Views: 1112

Re: How to treat a 2nd home or rental property in considering asset allocation?

Consider we have two portfolios, one illiquid (real estate) and one liquid. The liquid portfolio is subject to valuation-driven apportioning of assets between Stocks/Bonds/Cash on a continuing basis. At least annually the value and real yield on the illiquid (real estate) portfolio is compared with ...
by magneto
Sun May 15, 2016 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explanation for High PEs?
Replies: 4
Views: 586

Re: Explanation for High PEs?

"Stocks are just as overvalued today as they were in 2000". The above link in the paper is at least worth following for those such as myself (and apparently Nedsaid), who consider US stocks today not wildly expensive at about 10% above median (using DY) and certainly not as expensive as in...
by magneto
Sun May 15, 2016 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accelerating investing in a down or flat market
Replies: 7
Views: 1025

Re: Accelerating investing in a down or flat market

Hi jwillis77373, Here is an extract from an earlier post from this investor :- QUOTE "Have been using a dynamic stock target method based on valuations, but reaching that target with caution, currently 10% of deviation per month (helps to reduce adverse momentum impact). Some posters say that &...
by magneto
Sat May 14, 2016 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 12
Views: 1401

Re: The Intelligent Investor

I've already read the Four Pillars as well as Investor's Manifesto, Boglehead's guide to investing, Coffeehouse, and Common Sense on Mutual Funds. Currently reading A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I'm wondering if this book will add much to that assortment. Starting from having read 'The Four Pilla...
by magneto
Fri May 13, 2016 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios
Replies: 9
Views: 841

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios

"We are in the second most aggressive portfolio structure that the intelligent portfolios offer. 78% Stocks 50/50 US/Int 10% Bonds 7% Cash 5% Commodities I wondered why there was such a high allocation to cash." AT Seems at the limit of aggressive at almost 80/20. If not cash then what? Do...
by magneto
Fri May 13, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns: work in progress?
Replies: 9
Views: 888

Re: Sequence of returns: work in progress?

"I'm assuming a 60/40 portfolio of S&P and long bonds. I'm assuming a $1,000,000 portfolio. Each retirement window is 30 years." AJ Hi AJ. This is a typical (constant ratio) approach, but suggest your excellent review of the past, is maybe looking at the problem from the wrong angle :?...
by magneto
Tue May 10, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 8911

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

2.1) ..... I think even more relevant is that companies all over the world are shifting the way they return profits to shareholders. 2.2)There has been a large uptick in share buybacks (which i think one can argue is a more efficient way to return capital to shareholders) 2.3) and also an increase ...
by magneto
Tue May 03, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meaning of the label Market Timing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2349

Meaning of the label Market Timing?

Confusion seems to creep in amongst investors as to the labels of different investment approaches, esp around the name calling of "Market Timing" when considering Formula Plans. Would the following be a satisfactory clarification? :- 1. Tactical Asset Allocation aka Market Timing An endeav...
by magneto
Sun May 01, 2016 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 35
Views: 3466

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Simple rule: never sell anything that's uptrending (i.e. price above its 100-200 day moving average) It has been suggested that stocks spend one third of time :- 1. At All Time Highs 2. Making New Lows 3. Recovering When a stock position is hitting All Time Highs seems the more sensible option of t...
by magneto
Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 17
Views: 2667

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

Not only Stocks and Bonds, but Housing also in many areas has seen valuations rise well above medians, due to Central Banks actions. Not so concerned about Stocks, for if we look back at 1999/2000 valuations, then Stocks are substantially below those extraordinary levels, even if as noted still abov...
by magneto
Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You
Replies: 23
Views: 1922

Re: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You

1. What adjustment and why? Stock shares are just passing hands from one set of people (via mutual funds and mutual fund flows) to others, at varying prices. 2. Other players include retail investors who invest in individual stocks, investment advisers/family offices managing pools of money for peo...
by magneto
Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You
Replies: 23
Views: 1922

Re: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You

[...]Charts like these are intriguing as to how the data is collected, and how "investors" are defined.[...] 1. It's simple, unambiguous, and relevant. They're tracking stock mutual fund flows (net inflows/outflows from investors putting more money or taking more money out of funds). 2. Y...
by magneto
Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You
Replies: 23
Views: 1922

Re: Chart: Trying to Time the Market Can Cost You

This Fidelity report contains a great chart I haven't seen yet. It compares the inflows/outflows of investor cash to the market returns. Excellent chart to use as a demonstration of why market timing won't work. Quote from article :- "Investors as a whole tend to buy investments that have been...
by magneto
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "For bondholders, rising interest rates can have an upside"
Replies: 25
Views: 3048

Re: "For bondholders, rising interest rates can have an upside"

Good timing for me. I spoke with a financial advisor and he said absolutely do not put money into bonds right now with the interest rates so low. 1. He said it would be better (assuming i was willing to risk it) to put it all in index funds for the time being and wait until bonds are better; 2. he ...
by magneto
Sat Apr 23, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Have a Near Retirement Strategy for Sequence of Return Risk?
Replies: 88
Views: 7946

Re: Anyone Have a Near Retirement Strategy for Sequence of Return Risk?

Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18, is always a good starting point.

All Best
by magneto
Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 528
Views: 59593

Re: Have you upgrade to Windows 10?

No: Present laptop running fine on 7. If it ain't broke, don't fix it! So declining the constant "upgrade" offers from MS. We tend to buy new laptops on a fairly regular basis, so will adopt 10 only with the next new laptop purchase, unless 11 is out by then! Run all serious confidential d...
by magneto
Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is "wrong" with having more funds in a portfolio?
Replies: 70
Views: 4286

Re: What is "wrong" with having more funds in a portfolio?

+ More funds = More rebalancing opportunities. - Downside = High maintenance The investor will have to keep a close eye on price swings on a more frequent basis.. - More trading costs, but this should be outweighed by rebalancing bonuses if well executed. It is not for everybody! We currently run 21...
by magneto
Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Irregular Withdrawal Rates in Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 1267

Re: Irregular Withdrawal Rates in Retirement

Suggest Frank Armstong's book 'The Informed Investor' as a starting point.

Good Luck
by magneto
Sat Apr 16, 2016 3:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: grateful for any input on a major, urgent real estate decision
Replies: 75
Views: 5416

Re: grateful for any input on a major, urgent real estate decision

Haven't read the whole of this long thread, but do note some extremely good advice is given in this difficult situation. Putting some numbers (real yields) on the assets involved might help? Fair Annual Rent/Proposed price for house, would give a real % yield figure for the asset (rents tend to rise...
by magneto
Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transitioning to 3 fund portfolio - Sell energy now?
Replies: 15
Views: 1010

Re: Transitioning to 3 fund portfolio - Sell energy now?

I just unloaded them. The whole reason of the revamp of my portfolio was to simplify it and remove a lot of the emotion that goes into investing decisions. Keeping them or buying more because it is "cheap" or trying to figure out when it is at the peak to sell are reasons I am going away ...
by magneto
Sun Apr 10, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds and reaching for Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 950

Re: Bond Funds and reaching for Yield

Wm Bernstein in 'Four Pillars', amongst others says keep all Bonds short, then look at spread between Corps and Treasuries to decide how to allocate between them. I.E. base allocation on spread offered at that point in time. Certainly it is a concern Corps (even short) may slump a little (?) when st...
by magneto
Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate investing for retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1566

Re: Real estate investing for retirement

A 'Well Balanced Portfolio' will IMHO have exposure to all four main income producing asset classes (stocks/bonds/cash/real estate). It is not so much about opimisation as diversification and hence safety. The allocated percentages are where difficult questions arise! Whether or not the hassle of be...
by magneto
Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short or Intermediate-term bonds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1497

Re: Short or Intermediate-term bonds?

Thanks 'livesoft' for that insight. Have always regarded stocks as the main driver for the profits of the porfolio. Bonds and Cash as a temporary resting place when stock valuations higher, which incurs stock greater downside risk and lower expected returns. The one thing not wanted from bonds is fo...
by magneto
Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Couple needs some good advice from Bogleheads
Replies: 30
Views: 2943

Re: Couple needs some good advice from Bogleheads

I'm looking for advice on what we do with our cash in the current economic environment. 1. Should we pay off our mortgage completely or down to $1M where we can still get interest deduction on taxes? 2. Should we invest all cash thinking that over long-term it will appreciate? I have moderate risk ...
by magneto
Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets?
Replies: 15
Views: 1444

Re: Emerging Markets?

I had in the past held a 10% allocation in Emerging Markets (SFENX, Schwab Fundamental Emg Mkt Large Co Index, expense ration of .49%) in the taxable account, which I liquidated last fall to capture some tax losses to offset gains elsewhere. I would like to begin adding back and have a few question...
by magneto
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?
Replies: 84
Views: 4739

Re: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?

If we are looking contrarian-wise for a beaten down country/currency, then Russia has yet to be mentioned. :!: I beg to differ. For instance, take Russia. Does it have the highest potential future growth and profitability? Probably not. But valuations are so low that maybe it will have the best inv...
by magneto
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars with low profile tires
Replies: 23
Views: 1711

Re: Cars with low profile tires

Am very much with the OP on this one. The trend over the past few decades to low profile sacrifices comfort to overall handling. The vertical damping is thrown almost entirely onto the car suspension system, which may struggle to cope (esp with the higher frequency shocks). Have encountered others w...
by magneto
Sun Apr 03, 2016 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?
Replies: 84
Views: 4739

Re: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?

If we are looking contrarian-wise for a beaten down country/currency, then Russia has yet to be mentioned. :!:
However some recovery has already taken place.

The question might need refining as to whether we are supposed to be thinking short, medium or long term.
by magneto
Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor Larimore on Bear Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 3692

Re: Taylor Larimore on Bear Markets

Here is a question.... How likely is a properly diversified portfolio (assume 60/40 equity to bond ratio) likely to drop 89%, or even 50% today? There are far more ways to diversify today than we had in 1929-37, or even 1973-74. In the 2008 correction, my takeaway was that we saw a decline by just ...
by magneto
Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?
Replies: 22
Views: 2279

Re: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?

"Many great passive investing authors are changing their tune lately. They all cite the current "low return environment" as their reason for adding riskier investments. They say it is riskier "not" to do anything. Future returns are going to be slim." OP As far as stock...
by magneto
Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: leaving vanguard due to math errors / poor customer service?
Replies: 92
Views: 9184

Re: leaving vanguard due to math errors / poor customer service?

"Should I try switching from mutual funds to ETF's first? Most of my issues have been around distributions and cost basis, so I wonder if this stuff is handled any better on the ETF/brokerage side." OP That might be one solution if otherwise happy with Vanguard products. That then opens up...
by magneto
Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Time to Exchange Mutual Fund Shares for Those of a Different Fund
Replies: 6
Views: 540

Re: Best Time to Exchange Mutual Fund Shares for Those of a Different Fund

This is a similar (but different) problem to diversification and rebalancing. When the pricing of two funds or more diverge, it usually makes sense to rebalance from the stronger to the weaker, if the investor believes RTM applies, rather than lock-in losses on the weaker while moving on to the stro...
by magneto
Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you be a Boglehead and not hold international equity?
Replies: 38
Views: 3327

Re: Can you be a Boglehead and not hold international equity?

For the US investor the advice from John Bogle to ignore (or hold 20% maximum) International has been good advice to date. But :- + Will US stocks always continue to outperform or match International? + To turn the logic of this question on its' head; how can this advice be put into practice by a no...
by magneto
Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you changing your asset allocation?
Replies: 9
Views: 805

Re: Are you changing your asset allocation?

I am currently 50% bonds and commodities. 40% stock and 10% cash. I am thinking of reducing my stock exposure to 30%. My reason? I am concerned that the next president of the USA might be disastrous for the stock market. In fact, I think it is likely. Is anyone else considering reducing their expos...
by magneto
Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal Strategies for Larger Purchases after Retiring
Replies: 39
Views: 3014

Re: Withdrawal Strategies After Retiring

Suggest Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' has one of the better strategies for the retiree.

A two bucket approach, it aims to avoid the pitfall of selling stocks at distressed prices. ("Dollar Cost Ravaging").

All Best
by magneto
Wed Mar 23, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK investment trusts
Replies: 4
Views: 270

Re: UK investment trusts

Thanks. I haven't invested anything yet, but am comparing an etf to an investment trust and trying to decide between the two. The IT does have some attractive qualities like gearing and using reserves to maintain rising dividends but the expense ratio is 30 basis points lower with the etf. Maybe a ...
by magneto
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can we see if stock markets are about to crash?
Replies: 52
Views: 4210

Re: How can we see if stock markets are about to crash?

What indicators do you personally track to identify when market is about to crash? What advice can you provide to understand market conjuncture better? The implied logic here is the logic of the herd : I.E. :- Sell it's going down :!: Buy it's going up :!: which ends up with the investor buying hig...
by magneto
Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis
Replies: 104
Views: 7877

Re: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis

Surprised so few of the many experienced posters here give such little weight to rebalancing bonuses. :!: Rather than data-mine if the experienced investor look to the history of their own assets, then rebalancing bonuses must surely have occured?. If not something is adrift. :?: As investors, Volat...
by magneto
Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the market sentiment always in "bubble mode"?
Replies: 12
Views: 848

Re: Is the market sentiment always in "bubble mode"?

BH's : We have a problem :!: Our valuation measures seem to be broken/or at least telling us very different stories. CAPE and q suggest stocks remain quite fully valued. However PE1 and DY paint a more subdued picture. Suggest that on this occasion PE1 and DY might be the more helpful :?: We could b...
by magneto
Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: locking in my losses
Replies: 18
Views: 1786

Re: locking in my losses

I would like to simplify my 13 fund slice and dice portfolio (50% bonds, 50% equities) to a 3 or 4 fund portfolio. My portfolio was designed by a financial adviser that I no longer use back in 2012. Out of the 13 funds, 4 funds are down (TIPS, world bond fund, emerging markets, gold) since creation...
by magneto
Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging Foreign Currency: 0%, 50% or 100%?
Replies: 24
Views: 2186

Re: Hedging Foreign Currency: 0%, 50% or 100%?

Generally when seeking out the elusive Rebalancing Bonuses, the investor will hold volatile assets together with low volatility assets as a counterweight. So where Stocks are the volatile element of the portfolio, suggest the more volatile are the stocks the better the end result. :!: The additional...
by magneto
Thu Mar 10, 2016 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping a Big House as an Inflation Hedge
Replies: 67
Views: 5217

Re: Keeping a Big House as an Inflation Hedge

I meant a 6 bedroom big (also valuable) house for two persons, after the kids moved out. We are thinking about downsizing, but also want to keep the house for possible hedge against the inflation or for long term care insurance. Or we just want to find some positive reasons for not downsizing the h...
by magneto
Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for retiree with pension
Replies: 27
Views: 2241

Re: Asset allocation for retiree with pension

For retirees the best advice have seen to date is from Frank Armstrong in 'The Informed Investor'. Rather than fret about AA%s, concentrate instead on the main issue. Keep in short term bonds and/or cash, sufficient capital to meet 5 to 7 years income needs (therefore deduct pension in OP case). Ke...
by magneto
Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS versus Corporate Bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1735

Re: TIPS versus Corporate Bonds

Prefer to keep Corps short and IG to minimise volatility (i.e. keep volatility to stocks side). Then Short IG Corps can sit happily alongside TIPS, and the investor is covered and can respond to however inflation plays out. For a Well Balanced Portfolio the choice is not TIPS versus Corps but some o...
by magneto
Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for retiree with pension
Replies: 27
Views: 2241

Re: Asset allocation for retiree with pension

For retirees the best advice have seen to date is from Frank Armstrong in 'The Informed Investor'. Rather than fret about AA%s, concentrate instead on the main issue. Keep in short term bonds and/or cash, sufficient capital to meet 5 to 7 years income needs (therefore deduct pension in OP case). Kee...

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