Search found 804 matches

by magneto
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Out of the norm all-equity portfolio to compliment pensions
Replies: 13
Views: 480

Re: Out of the norm all-equity portfolio to compliment pensions

I was thinking of doing the following: 25% S&P 500 25% US Small Cap stocks 25% Developed International 25% Emerging markets We are in our mid 30's. This is obviously very aggressive but my logic is that we already have pensions which I look at as a more conservative investment. Our pensions sho...
by magneto
Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV and/or Speakers for Enhanced Voice Clarity [UPDATE]
Replies: 35
Views: 1791

Re: TV and/or Speakers for Enhanced Voice Clarity [UPDATE]

Second the advice to take a look at Sound Bases. These fit neatly under the smaller TVs, so no cluttering with any wires or speakers on floor, and bass/treble/volume can be tailored on remote to suit listener. Was stunned on buying a modern TV at how poorly the sound is now reproduced. Gone are dece...
by magneto
Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 5744

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

Good to see one or two posters have picked up on that there is more than one investment formula plan (four at the last count). Most here prefer the Constant Ratio Investment Formula Plan, the limitations of which seem to be creating some difficulties and doubts in thinking through the pros and cons ...
by magneto
Wed Mar 01, 2017 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2097

Re: Technical Analysis

Seems to be a great deal of misunderstanding here about TA :!: Even by some of our most respected posters. It is all about looking for patterns Seeing patterns in random events Primary purpose is to define the future Charts (pictures) don't tell a story There is nothing technical about it Ignores fu...
by magneto
Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2097

Re: Technical Analysis

For any investors using momentum funds; remember this is derived from TA :!:

Momentum is one of those TA rare techniques that the more it becomes known and followed, the more it succeeds. :(
by magneto
Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing frequency - Balanced funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1062

Re: Rebalancing frequency - Balanced funds

Is there any discussion of whether/how the daily rebalancing in a balanced fund could affect the fund performance versus infrequent rebalancing such as once-a-year or even less frequent like once every three years? There was a thread a few years back. It was of sufficient interest to prompt this in...
by magneto
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2097

Re: Technical Analysis

I've seen segments discussing technical analysis on CNBC news shows like Fast Money, but don't quite get their concepts or terminology. Does anyone know how reliable it is as an indicator to buy or sell? There seems to be a cottage industry about professional technical analysts that break down pric...
by magneto
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Markets as Banks
Replies: 3
Views: 259

Re: Asset Markets as Banks

Is the situation highlighted really new :?:

2008/9 apart we have had to deal with heady valuations for some time now; and most investors will have adopted strategies to cope with such problems.

Wonder what the author was thinking in late 1999?

But then pages have to be filled :!:
by magneto
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P at 22 times multiple
Replies: 40
Views: 4632

Re: S&P at 22 times multiple

I am firm believer in reversion to the mean. Based on historical norms the market is way over valued I wonder how long it will take till market reverts back to the mean a sell off must be coming soon i suspect. We are all wondering about that. And have been for some years :!: When our resolve weake...
by magneto
Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Iron Law of Valuation
Replies: 24
Views: 2518

Re: The Iron Law of Valuation

Given that the market's returns have historically been favorable, why try to make it slightly more favorable at the significant risk of making it much less favorable? If market timing based on valuations was as useful and successful as some purport it to be, it would be standard practice since meas...
by magneto
Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating tips for selling condo to tenant
Replies: 35
Views: 2882

Re: Negotiating tips for selling condo to tenant

We have no negotiating skills and have asked our current tenant if they would like to purchase it. They have been good tenants and we have treated them well too. I'm thinking we will all just sit down and discuss a price. We are not positive they want to buy. Thanks for any tips for a first time ne...
by magneto
Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off a rental property
Replies: 14
Views: 1622

Re: Paying off a rental property

Try thinking about the mortgage as leverage for the whole portfolio. Then compare cost of mortgage (after taxes, etc, as mentioned) with real yields or if preferred expected returns on Stocks, Bonds, Cash or other Fixed Income. Remember the real interest rate on the mortgage is less inflation (being...
by magneto
Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocation/Diversification of Equities During Withdrawal Phase
Replies: 10
Views: 887

Re: Allocation/Diversification of Equities During Withdrawal Phase

My non-expert intuition is that allocation and diversification should be very different during the withdrawal phase than it is during the accumulation phase--and I am not referring to the percentage of fixed income. So, what allocation of equities during withdrawal is most likely to always have som...
by magneto
Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Cash
Replies: 17
Views: 3489

Re: Bonds vs. Cash

Good responses above, which following thoughts merely overlap. There are bond buyers other than retail investors in the bond market. Their reasons to hold bonds may differ from the retail investor And those investors may be driven more by necessity than value or reason :?: We might expect interest r...
by magneto
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rebalancing AA in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 859

Re: Rebalancing AA in Retirement

Suggest as always reading Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18, as a starting point.

See also Frank's more recent on-line e-book.

This topic has more than one obvious answer!

And perhaps the overlooked asset class (Cash) might possibly come into play, to some limited degree?
by magneto
Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance into cash
Replies: 44
Views: 3236

Re: Rebalance into cash

erik265 wrote:Just wondering since interest rates are rising and the market is over valued based on historical norms should i re balance into cash and take a wait and see approach?
I know i know market timing people on here hate that ha


Is the word rebalance, quite correct?

(Kind of infers back to previous?)
by magneto
Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real Estate Vs. Stocks - all-time returns
Replies: 19
Views: 2564

Re: Real Estate Vs. Stocks - all-time returns

Owning specific rental real estate properties (along with management, etc.) and owning a diversfied fund of stocks would be such different ventures asking which makes the better investment is probably not a question that makes sense. I suspect such answer as exists is that a person can indeed do ve...
by magneto
Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the current market?
Replies: 26
Views: 3068

Re: Investing in the current market?

So just a couple of days back John Bogle himself states "It looks like a risky time to me: Stocks are fully priced". It is obvious the US market is priced higher than historical norms. Bonds don't look so tempting with the expectation of rising interest rates. I could go short and limited...
by magneto
Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Planning Advice PLEASE
Replies: 16
Views: 2050

Re: Retirement Planning Advice PLEASE

My husband and I unwisely placed most of our investments in real estate. We have no 401k or retirement plan offered from employer. We have managed to save $350, 000. We are now 65 and 66 and would like to retire in a year. The real estate in our area is still about 50% lower than the crash about 10...
by magneto
Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Buffett really believe the stock market went nowhere from 1964 to 1981?
Replies: 25
Views: 3029

Re: Did Buffett really believe the stock market went nowhere from 1964 to 1981?

Similar (lost period) thing in the UK with the FTSE100 still today just below the level of Dec 99 :!: However a poster produced data in another thread, showing that with dividends included, the UK FTSE100 surprisingly near matched the total return of the S&P over the same period. Well done the d...
by magneto
Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adjust Bond Holdings?
Replies: 8
Views: 729

Re: Adjust Bond Holdings?

Some thoughts :- Not all buyers/holders in the Bond Market are private investors. Those other non-private buyers/holders may have entirely different reasons for selecting their Bonds? ST Bonds, as you well know, should have less volatility and may appeal to the "take your risk on the Stock-side...
by magneto
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 31
Views: 6977

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

As a personal decision, and as an exercise in "knowing thyself," I realized I am okay with stock volatility and declines, but am less okay with seeing losses on fixed income instruments like bonds whose yields aren't all that impressive to begin with. Deaconfan Useful reminder about FI. F...
by magneto
Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 223
Views: 23973

Re: Retreat to cash

Essentially what we may be talking about here is market direction or market valuations? Direction is sought by momentum (aka trend) followers. An uncomfortable place to be when mean reversion takes over! Valuation criteria can be conflicting and confusing, and long-term drifting. Is there an Investm...
by magneto
Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have low interest rates effected any internatinal stocks in the same way it has effected US dividend funds?
Replies: 7
Views: 815

Re: Have low interest rates effected any internatinal stocks in the same way it has effected US dividend funds?

I've been thinking about how interest rates are much lower or even negative in other parts of the world. How do investors there get "income"? From a UK perspective, if pushed to list in some kind of order, the present most attractive Income Seeking Assets to enable a UK Defensive Retiree ...
by magneto
Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation 3 years away from retirement
Replies: 11
Views: 1880

Re: Allocation 3 years away from retirement

OP. You are coming to much the same conclusion as Frank Armstrong. I.E. %s may not be the pragmatic answer in retirement. See his book 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18, and also his web-site and on-line book ‘Investment Strategies for the 21st Century’ at ‘Investorsolutions.com’; below is an extract...
by magneto
Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds suck
Replies: 46
Views: 6707

Re: Bonds suck

Maybe shorter duration would feel more like home?
by magneto
Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 21276

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

goingup wrote:It's curious that no one complains when bonds fluctuate upward.


+1

Short duration Bonds not too bad!
We are tentatively dipping our toes into ST IG Corps.
But surely this negative scenario has much further to run?

Anyone else buying Bonds yet?
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 2039

Re: Barbell strategies?

I assume BH AA implementations are based on taking a middle-of-the-road approach to investing, e.g., some mix of total stock and total bond markets. This is in contrast to barbell strategies such as those espoused by Taleb and others that supposedly place greater emphasis on avoiding black swan eve...
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WOW, What a Total Bond and bonds in general drop!
Replies: 37
Views: 6204

Re: WOW, What a Total Bond and bonds in general drop!

Erwin wrote:Yesterday (11.9.16): Vanguard Total Bond -1%. So very unusual!


How is it looking Year on Year?
by magneto
Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are getting crushed...
Replies: 42
Views: 9288

Re: Bonds are getting crushed...

shak_VF wrote:the 30 yr treasury is down big today, down a full 3 3/32 - yield up to 2.78% 10 yr yield up to near 2%. A very fast move up to 2% for the 10 yr in a very short amount of time. I would think it is time to re-think bond allocations. I am re-thinking mine.


In which direction?
by magneto
Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just don't panic
Replies: 61
Views: 9174

Re: Just don't panic

A UK investor found this morning that VUSA the Vanguard S&P tracker moved down sharply then recovered a little. If the US market was closed, i.E. not moving, why did the tracker move? This movement is understandable from an anticipatory aspect. Also offers the investor a chance to trawl/fish for...
by magneto
Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Where are you going for income?
Replies: 102
Views: 15540

Re: Retirees: Where are you going for income?

From a UK perspective, if pushed to list in some kind of order, the present most attractive Income Seeking Assets to enable a defensive retiree to live within the portfolio 'natural yield', might list :- Infrastructure (CEICs) Renewable Energy (CEICs) Residential Real Estate direct REITs (esp Office...
by magneto
Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Multi Asset Help [UK investor]
Replies: 11
Views: 818

Re: Global Multi Asset Help [UK investor]

This is an interesting and thoughful proposed AA. Picking up on VT's post above after a quick glance on proposed AA, would agree the major potential flaw is the US allocation, which is way out re convention. But then maybe there are underlying views on this aspect? As a fellow UK investor, the bigge...
by magneto
Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decline in number of publicly traded companies in US
Replies: 2
Views: 596

Re: Decline in number of publicly traded companies in US

If such off-market ownership is found troubling, one solution is to add one or more of the Private Equity Closed End Funds. N.B. The Asset Class does not lend itself to OEICs comfortably due to illiquidity. But then if you think main markets are sufficiently volatile, PE is a surprise in waiting! Up...
by magneto
Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risk in buying sterling as a long term investment?
Replies: 16
Views: 1268

Re: Risk in buying sterling as a long term investment?

Playing currencies is basically gambling, no one really knows where this goes. +1 Currencies cannot be relied on to mean revert. Nisi's chart above demonstrates. Wind the clock back further to the early 1900s and £sterling could buy about US$4. My english grandfather who plied the North Atlantic se...
by magneto
Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camera recommendations- Not SLR
Replies: 52
Views: 4158

Re: Camera recommendations- Not SLR

There was a recent thread about SLR v Point and Shoot I was bitterly complaining about the difficulties of seeing the image on the viewing screen with P&S in sunny conditions, while the bulk of SLR was offputting. Several posters suggested electronic eye-level viewfinders as used on some P&S...
by magneto
Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental agent etiquette question
Replies: 13
Views: 2197

Re: Rental agent etiquette question

Afterthought

Who is going to draw up the tenancy contract?
by magneto
Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental agent etiquette question
Replies: 13
Views: 2197

Re: Rental agent etiquette question

So, have the friend go through your agent and rent the place. Problem solved. :happy Get the parties in touch and get it done. +1 There may be credit history checks/problems and other issues the agent may unearth. More importantly; it may be a good idea to build a satisfactory long-term relationshi...
by magneto
Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing When Currency Fluctuates
Replies: 10
Views: 458

Re: Currency

When rebalancing, you should convert all of the values into the same currency (using the current exchange rate), and look at the percentage value of each asset in that currency. It doesn't matter which currency you use - the percentages will be the same. This really set my head spinning! Let me kno...
by magneto
Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are implications of Jack Bogle's Morningstar interview
Replies: 39
Views: 5305

Re: What are implications of Jack Bogle's Morningstar interview

More specifically, if I buy the Bogle statement that real return will be about .5% on a 50-50 asset allocation (like mine) for the next decade how do I set my withdrawal rate accordingly? I am currenlly drawing down at a 3.3% rate. Is it time to serious lower that rate in light of the Boble intervi...
by magneto
Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer
Replies: 56
Views: 4686

Re: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer

We keep our old laptops (as the operating systems change ) for other purposes, so currently we have :- 1 - latest/newest for on-line work 1 - for critically secure information (never used on-line) 1 - for photo storage (never used on-line) Such a philosophy would create a physical storage problem us...
by magneto
Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash+Stocks Retirees, We Need To Talk!
Replies: 36
Views: 4051

Re: Cash+Stocks Retirees, We Need To Talk

We in retirement also are pretty much, not exactly, in the position described. Usually hold Gov't Stocks (Gilts here in the UK), but -ve real yields today make them a wasting asset in purchasing terms. US investors are a little more fortunate. If stocks are in one of three conditions at any point in...
by magneto
Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dividend index funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1954

Re: dividend index funds

Think you have had some good answers above,looking at the problem from most angles. We 'tilt' to yield to live off the 'natural yield' of our portfolio, simply because dividends come along on a regular calendar basis, whereas the capital gains do not. So we hold the broad market Stock Trackers AND s...
by magneto
Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using CAPE in choosing ETF (S&P500 vs total world)
Replies: 5
Views: 416

Re: Using CAPE in choosing ETF (S&P500 vs total world)

Tylenol Jones wrote:Thanks, so S&P is not necessarily 20% more overvalued than total world market?


It may or may not be.
It all hinges on growth in the respective markets.

A higher PE is usually paid for a higher growth company.
Same can apply to geographical regions.
by magneto
Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: House as Investment vs Stock Market.
Replies: 21
Views: 2742

Re: House as Investment vs Stock Market.

According to Case Shiller, American homes have appreciated between 0% to 2% above inflation. However, that is just capital appreciation. What about rental income - imputed or otherwise? +1 How Shiller of all people overlooked that key issue is beyond comprehension! Or did he overlook it? Offer an i...
by magneto
Fri Sep 23, 2016 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?
Replies: 26
Views: 2575

Re: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?

Yes, that's right, a prevailing yield increase of 10% would immediately drop the market value of already-issued 5-year-duration bonds by around 50%. ........ the higher yields would eventually make you whole, then better than whole. That's one way in which bonds are different from stocks. PJW This ...
by magneto
Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two questions ["Age in Bonds" vs. Risk Tolerance]
Replies: 24
Views: 1826

Re: Two questions

One thing you should think about is the fact that you have a pension. That may eliminate the need for you to hold bonds at all, depending on the terms of the pension. Bonds and pensions and social security are all fixed income assets that generate steady income. If you can cover your bare expenses ...
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12586

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

MOM is a short term phenomenon, securities that have done well (poorly) in the last year TEND TO continue to perform well (poorly) for about another 5 months on average. Contrarian investing (value) is a LONG TERM phenonomenon. Where things that have done poorly over the long term (like 5 years) te...
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12586

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Here in the UK Vanguard have, within the last year, introduced a Global Momentum Fund VMOM.

Performance to date so so, not covered itelf with glory.

Presumably Vanguard USA has similar offerings?

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