Search found 587 matches

by magneto
Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: buy-and-hold, vs more active mgt....question
Replies: 18
Views: 1138

Re: buy-and-hold, vs more active mgt....question

In life when prices are reduced we may stock up on non-perishable goods, and less so when fully priced. IMHO stocks are no different. Valuations are key to expected returns and downside risk. :?: Adjusting stock holding in line with valuations is often scorned and rejected as being active. But it ca...
by magneto
Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein's "If You Can" Portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 4959

Re: William Bernstein's "If You Can" Portfolio

Hello. I have a question about William Bernstein's suggested portfolio for a 25 year old. Here is what he suggests: 1/3 Total US Stock Market 1/3 Total International Stock Market 1/3 Total Bond Market He's suggesting 33% in bonds. This is even more conservative than Bogle's "Age In Bonds"...
by magneto
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]
Replies: 10
Views: 622

Re: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]

We don't seem to be gaining much traction on the DIY option. So taking Alex's and CottonSeeds suggestions above as a starting point, the following progressively complex portfolios, or a blend, using ETFs might suit. Option 1 70% VWRL Global Stocks 30% VGOV or IGLT UK Gov't Bonds (Gilts) Option 2 12%...
by magneto
Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age did you retire
Replies: 84
Views: 6419

Re: What age did you retire

Retired 1992 aged 49 and my wife 45, and how we regret not having worked in the interim :wink:
by magneto
Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]
Replies: 10
Views: 622

Re: Investment Advice [for UK-based professional poker player]

Paul Claireaux may be able to point you in a suitable direction as regards an adviser, and on other matters. WARNING - THIS INVESTOR DOES NOT HAVE ANY FIRST HAND EXPERIENCE WITH PAUL Paul's books are worth a read, as you have already read Tim Hale, and Paul's thoughts might suit your personality :?:...
by magneto
Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just not interested any more [in investing]
Replies: 42
Views: 7163

Re: Just not interested any more [in investing]

I guess the whole Boglehead goal is to spend less time worrying about investing etc...and more time living your life....I get that...I didn't expect to become so disinterested in everything finance / investing related. Is this a bad thing? Has anyone else experienced something similar....I see so m...
by magneto
Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Permanent Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 683

Re: Permanent Asset Allocation

(I haven't mentioned fixed income up to this point, but I do plan to invest more in bonds as I get closer to retirement) Even a young investor can benefit from holding some FI, if rebalancing is carried out astutely. I.E. To be able add to stocks when on sale, and reduce when fully valued. Suggest ...
by magneto
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Downward trend over?
Replies: 46
Views: 4057

Re: Downward trend over?

From a valuations perspective PE1 and DY are approaching their more recent historic medians, but PE10 and q are not. Suggest therefore all four of the measures are arguably flawed at present due to a variety of considerations. If I don't point it out, someone else will ; valuations seldom predict im...
by magneto
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2519

Re: How do ETFs work?

livesoft wrote:I wrote about Authorized Participants in my first response, but did not use that term.


Apologies, posts overlapped somehow!
by magneto
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2519

Re: How do ETFs work?

Not sure am reading the question right! ETFs are a little complicated due to the role of third party 'Authorised Participants' who steadily buy and sell stocks/bonds to create and redeem ETF shares. See 'ETF Authorised Participants' for more info. Interestingly because of their structure, it is poss...
by magneto
Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The last 15 years
Replies: 100
Views: 10432

Re: The last 15 years

The question that arises from the US stocks erratic but generally upwards progress nor'-east since 1999/2000; is whether or not US stocks steady progress will continue for a further 15 years. :?: Is the US stock market progress since 2000 typical or atypical. :?: Various markets around the world hav...
by magneto
Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?
Replies: 31
Views: 2160

Re: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?

Requirement for our non/low volatility non-stocks, is well? Non/low-volatility!
HY not therefore held.

EM target is 7% of stocks, and grimly holding.
Also have 11% target of stocks for Asia/Pacific, which might be considered an overlap. Also grimly holding.
by magneto
Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Explain the Market
Replies: 6
Views: 615

Re: Explain the Market

What drives what :?:
Good question

Those who try to track such things, divide the economic cycle/health in terms of :-
1. Leading Indicators
2. Coincident Indicators
3. Lagging Indicators

Unfortunately stocks are usually reckoned to fall into group 1. :!:
by magneto
Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in Retirement.
Replies: 28
Views: 1972

Re: Rebalancing in Retirement.

Suggest reading Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' chapter 14.

Boils down to something like :-
Hold 5 - 7 years Income needs in short term bonds or cash
Only sell stocks when fully priced

This may be an over-simplification!
by magneto
Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 100% stock thread!
Replies: 33
Views: 2825

Re: Another 100% stock thread!

Performance I used Portfolio Visualizer to compare a 100% stock, 60/40 mix, and 100% bond portfolio. I looked at every 10, 20, and 30 year window from 1972 and on. The 100% stock portfolio won decisively. I suspect, with the exception of the great depression, I'd find the same pattern before 1972 a...
by magneto
Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 127
Views: 9323

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Just love these posts about rebalancing :happy When will we achieve the ultimate rebalancing method. :?: Where the article may fall down is failing to take full note of momentum, deviation and time; and hence the extent of rebalancing . Taking parallels with Classical Control Theory - Integral Actio...
by magneto
Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash and Cash Equivalents in Asset Allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 862

Re: Cash and Cash Equivalents in Asset Allocation

Our aim 'A Well Balanced Porfolio' with exposure to the four main income producing asset classes of stocks, bonds, real estate and cash. The 'not know any better investor' (not necessarily a bad thing) might allocate 25% to each :?: But then we do know better, don't we? :wink: The real estate can in...
by magneto
Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6440

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

EDIT : This thread is throwing up challenging concepts, another of which is :- "Another possibility is something I believe is closer to Sharpe's vision: to hold the market portfolio—for simplicity and costs, the market portfolio of global stocks and bonds will do—and let that ride, maintaining...
by magneto
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: who is buying or selling ??
Replies: 27
Views: 2008

Re: who is buying or selling ??

just curiosity who's buying or selling ??? That is a good question in a wider context. One would suppose that there are an equal number of buyers and sellers, at any moment in time, to make a market. We are currently gently buying, but when looking at a broker's web-site for a fund of interest on a...
by magneto
Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6440

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

The higher valuations go, the more risk you need to take because expected returns are lowered! Trying to hold risk constant requires estimating risk, which has its own challenges but at least in the short term is not nearly as bad as trying to estimate returns. Active rebalancing to keep risk on ta...
by magneto
Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have no more money to invest
Replies: 76
Views: 6301

Re: I have no more money to invest

... From another post :- ... Would it be possible for you to provide us with a link to the post you've quoted, so we can read it in its entirety, along with any other related posts its author may have written? Thanks in advance. PJW Magneto was the author responding to a UK novice investor. Rest of...
by magneto
Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have no more money to invest
Replies: 76
Views: 6301

Re: I have no more money to invest

Remember : No non-stocks - No rebalancing bonus. ... The rebalancing bonus is an attractive idea which does not, in fact, happen, at least in the way we talk about rebalancing here at bogleheads.org. To rebalance is to restore one's allocation to target (or by some rubrics, closer to target) when i...
by magneto
Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have no more money to invest
Replies: 76
Views: 6301

Re: I have no more money to invest

Remember : No non-stocks - No rebalancing bonus. Those with less aggressive stock allocations are now quietly starting to buy, to rebalance at increasingly advantageous prices, relatively speaking. However be WARNED : Stocks have yet to cross firmly below their longer term median valuations. Predict...
by magneto
Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Portfolio (UK Resident)
Replies: 14
Views: 878

Re: Investing Portfolio (UK Resident)

@magneto 1/ No. My equities are made of 80% VWRL and 20% of Global Small cap. So the total will look like 65% VWRL, 15% small cap, 20% bonds. I guess this is better than 100% equities in VWRL? When you says that by investing regions you gain rebalancing bonuses. What do you mean by that? I feel lik...
by magneto
Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Portfolio (UK Resident)
Replies: 14
Views: 878

Re: Investing Portfolio (UK Resident)

I have been doing a lot of research in the last couple of weeks on how everything works in the stocks world A prodigous work rate then :!: "QUESTIONS: 1/ What are you thoughts on how I diversify my STOCK choice. Would you change anything? If reading post correctly the 80% stock exposure will b...
by magneto
Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest even if it's probably not the bottom
Replies: 18
Views: 3351

Re: Invest even if it's probably not the bottom

When stocks have been falling, many investors ask "Is this the bottom?" when deciding whether to buy stocks. This is the wrong question, because even if the expected Sharpe (reward-to-risk) ratio is high, it probably is not the bottom. Invest if you think current expected returns are suff...
by magneto
Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2315

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

Magneto, could you link to the thread explaining this method in more detail please? Link to thread, which relates mostly to momentum blended with valuation considerations. The OP's link to the original paper may be helpful. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=177653&p=2689...
by magneto
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would this be Rebalancing or Attempted Market Timing?
Replies: 6
Views: 696

Re: Would this be Rebalancing or Attempted Market Timing?

However, I am considering shifting that $500/month to my taxable (S&P 500 index or TSM) during times when the market dips into correction territory, such as right now. I would shift those $500 contributions back to the mortgage once the market recovered again. My question is, would that be cons...
by magneto
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?
Replies: 39
Views: 3880

Re: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?

This has been thought about long and often over many years.

For perhaps the most safe approach see :-
Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapter 14.

a common-sense approach to investing in retirement
.
stocks only sold when fully valued
5-7 years income reserve in short bonds/cash

All Best
by magneto
Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks are in correction...but aren't they still expensive?
Replies: 14
Views: 2365

Re: US stocks are in correction...but aren't they still expensive?

Still pricey, correct? Compared to what? Where else can the world put its money? Government bonds? Europe? CHINA??? The flight into US$ from China over the last 10 days is stunning. Tens of Billions. US stocks look good to me at these levels compared to the alternatives. That line of thinking can b...
by magneto
Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How common is this [Have more money 10+ years into retirement]
Replies: 72
Views: 8835

Re: How common is this

I know quite a few retirees that are 10 years or more into retirement and even with distributions, have more money in their account then when they retired. How many find themselves in this situation. Also would you care to share your asset allocation in retirement. Steve Yes we in retirement find o...
by magneto
Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)
Replies: 28
Views: 2315

Re: Allocating Cash in down markets( Accumulation Phase)

I am sure this has been discussed here, but could not find a definitive thread. This is one of the practical aspect of down markets that investors in the 'accumulation phase' face. I have a standard allocation to cash/bond. Cash is not a whole lot just 1% of the portfolio. I do have some cash for e...
by magneto
Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard total world yield > total bond market
Replies: 12
Views: 1032

Re: vanguard total world yield > total bond market

" It should be clear.... The objective of investing is to have liquidity and cash flow able to meet your expenses... The objective is not a stable portfolio principal except to the extent that it marteialy impacts liquidity and cash flow such that you cannot meet expenses. This is true no matte...
by magneto
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the market being down limit downside risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 3034

Re: Does the market being down limit downside risk?

The word 'limit' may not be the most apposite.

Downside risk is reduced, but as markets are trading a fair bit above medians still plenty of 'unlimited' downside risk in the tank.

Also depends whether you believe in momentum. :?:
A momentum investor might think downside risk has increased. :!:
by magneto
Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4523

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

Agree that cash should be part of the portfolio, and not just emergency fund. It is 10% of my target AA (admittedly we have a low need to take risk). Can you expand what your methodology is to add stocks? Here is an extract from an earlier post which related to an Asness et al paper, adding momentu...
by magneto
Sat Jan 09, 2016 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4523

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

Our aim 'A Well Balanced Porfolio' with exposure to the four main income producing asset classes of stocks, bonds, real estate and cash. The real estate can be overlooked, but cash IMHO is important as insurance, esp in times such as these when stocks and bonds both seem bearish. :( How much cash is...
by magneto
Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to re-balance yet?
Replies: 7
Views: 1031

Re: Time to re-balance yet?

I am not sure if I am doing this right but this is what I am tracking. we are retired, no new income. Our AA is Equity 60%: Bonds 40% I am watching our total networth (from Vanguard, which is where all our investments are with one exception of Muni Bonds in taxable account which is doing great!) er...
by magneto
Thu Jan 07, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This market looks so bad...
Replies: 9
Views: 2186

Re: This market looks so bad...

RedDog wrote:One other possible silver lining...I haven't seen many comments during the last few days about interest rates and BND/other bond assets tanking. :wink:


and where are the 100% stocks threads :?:
by magneto
Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction
Replies: 103
Views: 9797

Re: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction

What do we really know :?: Valuations are above medians, but not at extremes. So present valuations do not give much of a clue about likely direction. Stocks have been bearish since about April 2015, but not showing up as such very much on Nisi's longer term chart above. Momentum followers may be in...
by magneto
Tue Jan 05, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?
Replies: 26
Views: 4353

Re: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?

Barbell has exact same expected return as bullet but with less risk (due to positive convexity, reducing duration risk). Isn't that the end of the story? It is strictly better? Where could the most useful reading material on this subject be found? The wiki is a bit light! Rick Van Ness does not see...
by magneto
Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Waste of money? [High-end home theater]
Replies: 140
Views: 7620

Re: Waste of money?

Something strange is happening on BH lately. :!: Posters seeking solace that purchase of high end autos is justified. :!: Now speakers. :!: What ever happened to BH frugality. :?: Suggestion : look in second-hand market-place to glean :- + What will speakers be worth 10 years down the line? + Could ...
by magneto
Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?
Replies: 26
Views: 4353

Re: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?

One downside of this allocation is that during a crisis these bonds might very well tank with equities and you will take a hit just at the time you want to sell this dry powder to buy equities. Both long dated TIPS and all corporates did badly during the credit crisis of a few years ago. TIPS for l...
by magneto
Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 110
Views: 7983

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

John Bogle does not think international is necessary. After reading his reasons in Common Sense on Mutual Funds, it convinced me that I was on the right track. I suggest you read that chapter in his book and come to your own conclusions after that. I'll start you off with this article. http://www.b...
by magneto
Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?
Replies: 51
Views: 3868

Re: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?

Stocks do not present the only uncertainly in life: Stock losses are frequently correlated with job losses. The fear of losing one's job in the midst of a significant stock market decline may make even the most agressive equity investor sell at the worst possible time, so owning bonds can cushion a...
by magneto
Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?
Replies: 26
Views: 4353

Re: Boglehead Bond Barbell - why not more popular?

Bond barbells tend to be popular when long-term rates are high - not in a period like we are experiencing. WARNING THIS IS RESTARTING AN OLD THREAD As something of a less than perfectly informed investor in bonds, have slowly realised that our present holdings have accidentally become what could be...
by magneto
Sat Jan 02, 2016 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?
Replies: 51
Views: 3868

Re: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?

Benjamin Roth's 'The Great Depression, A Diary', should be on every investor's must read list (esp the 100% stock clique). :!:
by magneto
Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it Possible for the Stock Market Trend to Change
Replies: 18
Views: 1117

Re: Is it Possible for the Stock Market Trend to Change

When investing 'The Market' is not some strange abstract concept. The market is ownership of a collection of underlying functioning businesses, with hopefully growing profits and earnings per share. Generally the market can be expected to reflect the performance of the underlying growing businesses....
by magneto
Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?
Replies: 51
Views: 3868

Re: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?

If stocks offer a higher returns than bonds, is a disciplined investor (who can avoid a panic in a down market) better served with a 100% stock portfolio? No I have read some studies that claim a split of stocks and bonds offers better returns than all stocks, but how can this be if stocks (histori...
by magneto
Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In retirement, how do you determine when stocks are up?
Replies: 16
Views: 1681

Re: In retirement, how do you determine when stocks are up?

Frank Armstrong in 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18 tackles this same issue in a similar manner in one of the most common-sense ways have seen to date. Will try to summarise (but do read book) :- The lifestyle 60/40 leads to withdrawals on a pro-rata basis from equity and fixed assets regardless o...

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