Search found 912 matches

by magneto
Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1180

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

Do as you want as it is your money, but whatever you are doing IS market timing as you are making guesses on valuations. Simple as that. You may be correct or you may be completely wrong. You may make a ton of money, but you may end up broke. If you have that fallback inheritance go for it, but if ...
by magneto
Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1180

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

After reading the Intelligent Investor, I am thinking about switching from a set allocation of 80% stocks, 20% bonds, to a more dynamic allocation that would change slightly based on interest rates and the Schiller PE. I am thinking of something like the following: 1. If the Schiller PE is less tha...
by magneto
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 103
Views: 4847

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

Firstly the need to understand 'risk'. No matter what the academics might opine; it ain't just volatility. Howard Marks suggests the risk that matters most is the risk of permanent loss. Posters above have picked up on some horrifying worst case scenarios. And for the value concious investor, there ...
by magneto
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feeling good about the market's direction. Wish it would drop more...
Replies: 14
Views: 2256

Re: Feeling good about the market's direction. Wish it would drop more...

As an 'Adaptive Value Investor' a la Ben Graham, quite content to be able to deploy some of the defensive (income producing) reserves into Stocks, after what seems a long wait. High valuations had kept stock target to circa 25%, now lifted to circa 30%. (Max 75%). Will only move monies at 10% of dev...
by magneto
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1492

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

Since confusion continues and suspect will always continue :( This quote from Benjamin Graham in The Intelligent Investor may augment the points made by a few posters :- "Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent in...
by magneto
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1492

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

Suppose I have a 90:10 stock bond allocation. If I think that market is too overvalued right now and if I want to change the future contributions to be allocated 50:50, with hopes that if the market tanks again, i can change AA again to a more aggressive one, will this be considered an attempt to t...
by magneto
Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 5875

Re: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio

Presumably the Bond funds will respond differently
and to varying degrees
in different environments, e.g. :-

+ Rising Interest Rates
+ Stocks slump (flight to safety)
+ Other

Would be interested to learn more about Vanguard's thinking behind the recommendation.
by magneto
Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1274

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

Yes I didn't express this correctly; I mean that using MA only as a timing indicator was better than adding a criterion based on CAPE to decide whether to be in or out of stocks. So his tests showed that using trend following only was better than combining it with CAPE. This is because the stock ma...
by magneto
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1274

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

But, how about this? Let's assume that the market is more likely enter a serious decline whenever CAPE is significantly elevated, as it appears to be now. If so, then going to cash when the market declines below it's MA might be a higher-probability strategy; i.e., more likely to work because the m...
by magneto
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 123
Views: 15389

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Have noticed presently, the relatively few apparently good value positions are those with serious clouds/doubts hanging over them!
This might be telling us more about markets than companies ?
by magneto
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1827

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

An intriguing thread. Confirming, denying or explaining EMH is way above this investor's pay-grade. What is puzzling is that perhaps while fundamentals may be unchanged, something in the world stirs investors' hopes or fears, and a change in attitude to Stock, Sector or Market may transpire. These c...
by magneto
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1522

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

I don't mean to criticize mentioning this article--I like financial porn as much as the next guy--but its main value, if it has any, is to illustrate the point that at any given instant in time there are huge differences in the predictions of the best informed and most knowledgeable observers. Of c...
by magneto
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4512

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

One simple point to hang on to, is that in an ideal world, the investor should only be selling Stocks if :- + Stocks are at an all-time high and also + Fully Valued Repeat :- + And also Fully Valued !!! Selling for anything else must on reflection be sub-optimal? This aim can lead investors to vario...
by magneto
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27170

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

What a relief that no 100%Stockers have chipped in. :o

But hang on a minute :!:
If the 100%Stockers are unusually absent, and posters mostly seem to be tending defensive; what might that portend :?:

But at least most here seem to have the grounding of an Investment Plan. :)
by magneto
Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3659

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

I' am going to fall back on Jack Bogle's statement of "I don't know anyone who can time the market or know anyone who knows anyone who can time the market". I guess I misunderstood the title of this blog. In my mind reducing sequence risk & market timing are 2 different things. In my account: My pl...
by magneto
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3659

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

" Often, strategies lose their effectiveness once observed." Momentum as far as can tell seems to be unique, in that the wider it is recognised, the more it succeeds (until it doesn't), as noting the presence of momentum in a security or group of securities, ever more climb aboard the bandwagon. So ...
by magneto
Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on the fence
Replies: 20
Views: 2420

Re: Sitting on the fence

As pointed out don't feel under pressure to conform to a single pattern/allocation set by others (no matter how well intentioned). Must be your decision with which sufficiently comfortable to be sure of 'staying the course', your course . Take some time to reflect. Plenty of good books out there, se...
by magneto
Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 4094

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

Look for a moment at the materials and objects you are wearing and those surrounding you. A high proportion is derived from oil, or uses oil in some way during manufacture. We are surely not going back to coal as a feedstock? The main transport role for oil will undoubtedly be less, but this investo...
by magneto
Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 7511

Re: Saving for the crash

Liquid portfolio approx at :- 25% Risk (=Stocks) 25% Defensives (=Bonds + Alt Fixed Income) 50% Cash (incl I-Bond type assets) and continuing to sell on rising markets from the risk-side. Quite content with the returns made over the last cycle. Valuations on the risk-side IMHO pushing to within 6% t...
by magneto
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 66
Views: 3846

Re: Automated Market Timing

From an old post :- Benjamin Graham has this to say in The Intelligent Investor. ‘Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings....
by magneto
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?
Replies: 156
Views: 17140

Re: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?

Yes, I feel like the biggest idiot especially in this bull market. I only started investing 3 years ago and got involved in high risk stocks (oil and biotech). Made some really bad picks and took a massive lost. I try to ignore thinking about how much I've lost because I feel ashamed and embarrasse...
by magneto
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?
Replies: 65
Views: 4549

Re: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?

Sometimes 'Market Timing' and 'Adaptive Value Investing' get mixed up. Ben Graham had this to say in The Intelligent Investor. ‘Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibil...
by magneto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 10501

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

An "active" fund that has a fairly mechanical selection criteria of a factor fund and a low expense ratio (e.g. 0.13% for Vanguards new single factor funds I think) is much less bad. And to a factor enthusiast/believer (not me, quite), worth the fairly small additional cost. That does indeed make s...
by magneto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 10501

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Vanguard UK have for a couple of years now offered four Global Factor ETFs.
Noticed the other day that these funds carry investor warning flags 'ACTIVE'.
How is BH philosophy to be reconciled with factor investing, if Vanguard see such funds as 'active' :?:
by magneto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 13487

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

But clearly, dividends are a fact of life when investing for many people. If I get a dividend from a fund held in a tax-advantaged account and just have the dividend automatically reinvested at NAV, then that's pretty much like not getting a dividend in the first place, so no harm and no foul as fa...
by magneto
Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 13487

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

In common with so many other dividend-allergic threads, left wondering why there is so much vehemence expressed against dividends. :?: Those in favour of dividends would welcome a 50% stock set-back, the dividend averse would presumably not? Might the plethora of anti-dividend sentiment be anything ...
by magneto
Sun Dec 03, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Avoid High Ranked Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 2105

Re: Larry Swedroe: Avoid High Ranked Funds

"Point 1. a mutual fund’s past performance not only fails to guarantee its future performance (as the required SEC disclaimer states), but has almost no value whatsoever as a predictor— Point 2. with the exception that poor performance, combined with high expenses, typically predicts future poor per...
by magneto
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in U.K. / USA
Replies: 6
Views: 476

Re: Investing in U.K. / USA

The Bogleheads guide to investing talks a lot about investing in domestic vs international stocks. I'm based in the U.K. So I'm guessing that when they talk about domestic stocks, they're talking about USA. My question is, should I treat it as if I'm in the USA and follow the portfolio advice they ...
by magneto
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 8337

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

As some famous person said (paraphrased), "If you want to invest in real estate, buy an REIT. REIT's never call you up in the middle of the night because their toilet isn't working." Come on now TN :D Let's demolish this oft repeated 'Straw Man' (or 'Red Herring' if preferred) once and for all. If ...
by magneto
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Market Expensive?
Replies: 18
Views: 1738

Re: Is the Market Expensive?

Stage 1 Yes the market is expensive, mainly IMHO and IOHO, because all competing assets (Cash excluded) are also expensive due to central banks QE, lo interest rates policies, etc. Stage 2 Q. When will the markets be less expensive? A. Haven't a clue :annoyed In retirement we are :- 25% Risk = Stoc...
by magneto
Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 8337

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

As some famous person said (paraphrased), "If you want to invest in real estate, buy an REIT. REIT's never call you up in the middle of the night because their toilet isn't working." Come on now TN :D Let's demolish this oft repeated 'Straw Man' (or 'Red Herring' if preferred) once and for all. If ...
by magneto
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 8337

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

Diversification. Won't always work when you need them as Stocks slump. But did work extremely well for us with yields on RE at one point (when Stocks were severely over-valued) exceeding 10X yields of Stocks. RE valuations (not pricing) like Stocks move in cycles. Sometimes the cycles coincide, some...
by magneto
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 30373

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

This Bull Market has certainly seemed to have lasted an extraordinary long time. Valuations for individual holdings we find are nearly all within 10% of, or above historic ceilings. When will it end? - Nobody can judge surely! Much has shifted from risk to defensives in our portfolio; and that proce...
by magneto
Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 3638

Re: International Bonds

Unhedged International Bonds may offer currency diversification with resultant rebalancing opportunities.
Unlikely to appeal to many/most investors on their supposedly defensive side.
But they are after all part of the total Global investable assets.
by magneto
Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slanting International geographically or regionally
Replies: 25
Views: 1265

Re: Slanting International geographically or regionally

Perspective from another non-US (UK) investor. We maintain specific allocations on the 'Risk = Stocks' side to :- + UK + Global + USA + Asia/Pacific + Europe + Emerging Markets The major decision has been the UK (Domestic) v International balance, as the currency swings there can come into play with...
by magneto
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 10501

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I would define passive as no individual stock selection, no market timing, completely agnostic to what the individual stocks are. Dave Precisely. But a fund that might churn in excess of 100% underlying stocks turnover annually, dependent on the movement of individual stocks into and out of value o...
by magneto
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 10501

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I’ve become especially a fan of value because it seems there are both good risk based and behavioral based explanations for its persistence. Value seems to involve decision making/stock selection on fundamentals at some level, which appears a deviation from passive. Momentum would generally involve...
by magneto
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 40
Views: 3907

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

This trend of declining # of publicly traded stocks concerns me as an investor because it suggests that an ever increasing amount of money is chasing fewer and fewer stocks, leading to artificially high valuations and eventual collapse. This is not a purely US issue, the phenomenom exists elsewhere...
by magneto
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6503

Re: High equity portfolios in retirement - cFIREsim scenarios.

Have you read Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18 ? I have not. What is the gist? Side-stepping 'Sequence of Return Risk' entirely through use of two buckets. The biggest risk of retirees. Stocks in Bucket 1. Five or seven years of necessary income in Bucket 2 (ST Bonds and Cash). Dr...
by magneto
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6503

Re: High equity portfolios in retirement - cFIREsim scenarios.

Have you read Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18 ?
by magneto
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2700

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

A a non US investor hold US short duration Bonds as a currency play. This adds a certain spice to the defensive side. It can be considered 'insurance' by linking to the world's leading currency or speculative, depending on perspective. But then volatility (currency) can be seen as a desirable featur...
by magneto
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...
Replies: 64
Views: 3551

Re: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...

great points...that leads me to 2 distinct paths I could take: 1: continue current plan: 100 or 90/10 portfolio, keep contributing while paying down debts and building emergency fund and hope I don't get laid off. 2: go the conservative, although much safer route...stop contributing to all investme...
by magneto
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...
Replies: 64
Views: 3551

Re: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...

At your age did not bother with Bonds.
But had a substantial wad of Cash on hand, over and above emergency fund, to pick up Stocks as and when they went on sale.
by magneto
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improved returns from rebalancing asset allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 670

Re: Improved returns from rebalancing asset allocation

I'm trying to confirm a thought I had about why it makes sense to have some bonds in a portfolio. I know the whole historical trend is that a portfolio with 100% stock has higher returns than 90/10, 80/20, or 70/30. However, I was thinking that having some bonds in a portfolio during a bear market ...
by magneto
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 14262

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Can we have some balance here? Moderate dividends with growth suits fine. If the retiree can live within those moderate dividends without being forced to sell stock any time at distressed prices that surely is a plus ? I.E. to be able to live within the natural yield of the portfolio, without bendin...
by magneto
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 2140

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

Time period selection makes a big difference. From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets went up by a whopping 170% while US was basically flat (slightly down if you adjust for inflation). Whether or not you tilt toward EM, international diversification is worthwhile IMHO. The key point as highlighted here...
by magneto
Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 14262

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Very few would advocate high dividends at the expense of growth But moderate dividends with growth sounds just fine. If a stock rose in price to offer a lower yield would it then become more attractive to the dividend gainsayers? Again as oft pointed out Revenue, Profits, Earnings are what the acco...
by magneto
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 14262

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

This is a well trodden track. Perhaps even a straw-man? But then pages have to be filled ! Very few would advocate high dividends at the expense of growth But moderate dividends with growth sounds just fine. If a stock rose in price to offer a lower yield would it then become more attractive to the ...
by magneto
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 2311

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

I am trying to understand the relationship between volatility and risk as it pertains to options for different investment allocations. I have very high appetite for volatility (I will be able to stay the course even if market went down 40% - at least I think I would based on scenarios I have run). ...
by magneto
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?
Replies: 45
Views: 4175

Re: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?

when I see my portfolio value grow day after day I do think this isn't going to go on forever, I have seen this movie and know how it ends. So to some extent, if I am honesty, market timing is creeping into my decisions because I have no need to take the risk . At the moment I am of the mind I woul...