Search found 734 matches

by magneto
Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can one accurately time the purchase of one's home?
Replies: 9
Views: 912

Re: can one accurately time the purchase of one's home?

Looking at the parallel rental market can give some idea of the prevailing relative home values. Over some decades here in the UK, rental yields have varied between 4% and 12%, as house prices cycled in inflation adjusted terms. Note : Rents generally assumed to rise in line with inflation/incomes. ...
by magneto
Sun Aug 28, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking Profits
Replies: 9
Views: 969

Re: Taking Profits

1. For these type of questions, suggest reading Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18. 2. As for when to sell from the Stock Bucket and replenish the Fixed Income Bucket; can be a continuing process at whatever the investor considers the most favourable of the three Stock Market condi...
by magneto
Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Fund Timing ?? [Portugal]
Replies: 18
Views: 1008

Re: Index Fund Timing ?? [European resident]

I want to go 90% equities and 10% bonds or maybe even 100% equities since I'm young and I fit all the criteria described on this forum to do so. My biggest question is: -Should I invest on a S&P 500 index fund since it is on a all time high ? I'm thinking that a strategy of avoiding buying inde...
by magneto
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 6795

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Would tentatively add the 'Rebalancing Bonus' would not be available to the 100% Stocks investor. That Bonus is maximised at 50/50 (volatile/stable). However most investors will logicallly head towards the 60/40, 70/30 region,since the volatile asset (Stocks) tends to outperform long-term (esp US). ...
by magneto
Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Are Blue Chip Stocks?
Replies: 3
Views: 375

Re: What Are Blue Chip Stocks?

How about the DJ Industrials?
And the selection methods?
by magneto
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX
Replies: 15
Views: 520

Re: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX

Vangarder's strategy sounds remarkably like " Portfolio Insurance" . Most experts now believe this was a major component of the October 19th 1987 Crash, the largest single day crash in history. Basically the strategy required selling as the market fell to prevent portfolio losses. The pro...
by magneto
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1086

Re: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?

Question for Vision (OP) :- If we look at the main methods of allocating Assets :- 1. Tactical Asset Allocation aka Market Timing An endeavour to seek out the most or least promising Asset going forward for short-term outperformance, using such tools as economic criteria, valuations, or plain moving...
by magneto
Wed Aug 17, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 691

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

Stocks are indeed (relative to the past) high priced based on fundamental multiples. Bonds are at unprecedented high prices (based on historical yields). Growth has been sub-par. My hope, is that fundamental growth returns towards more historical norms. Gov't Bonds in quite a few countries are now ...
by magneto
Tue Aug 16, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash in Retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 2401

Re: Cash in Retirement

Answers so far sort of surprised me (little cash). I just read Jane Bryant Quinn and she recommended I believe 2 yrs in cash and some in s/t bonds as well when starting retirement. Seems like cash earning 1% is as good if not better than s/t bonds now. I am worried about selling bonds at a loss whe...
by magneto
Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finding middle ground with spouse on investing
Replies: 30
Views: 3114

Re: Finding middle ground with spouse on investing

bluejello makes very good sense above. Just wondering how your spouse(s) feels about Rental Residential Real Estate? Some exposure to RRRE would seem to tie in well with the longer-term goals for that Asset Class? My wife is very keen on the tangiblity of RE, and has proven an excellent managing lan...
by magneto
Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what to buy when stock market is a new high?
Replies: 37
Views: 5237

Re: what to buy when stock market is a new high?

1. Draw up an Investment Plan, if not already drafted.

2. If inertia/valuations a problem, take a look at 'Value Averaging'.
Might just appeal?
by magneto
Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3304

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

If it helps, we use valuation driven Dynamic Asset Allocations, and have done so for about 35+ years. It forced us gradually to reduce Stocks in the run-up to 2000, move into Real Estate late 90s with released proceeds; and gradually back into Stocks 2008/9 and so on. Whether this has increased perf...
by magneto
Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1001

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

My suspicion was that differences in figures might be attributable to normalising of earnings employed by MSCI but not FTSE. That in itself raises questions about how much we can trust Co Accounts/Finance Directors to :- 1. Produce realistic reported unadjusted earnings. 2. Estimate reasonable under...
by magneto
Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it un-bogle like to time your initial purchase of index funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1516

Re: Is it un-bogle like to time your initial purchase of index funds?

If it helps, IMHO Stocks are expensive, but not unreasonably so. A future rapid run-up is just as likely as a future major fall. In other words (like most others) haven't a clue about market direction. So am (again like most others), in no position to answer the question to your satisfaction. If how...
by magneto
Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1001

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

As of 29 July 2016 MSCI has the trailing PE ratio of the MSCI UK Investible Market Index at 21.59. Its correlation with the FTSE 100 should be very high, kind of like US Total Market vs S&P 500. As of Friday last, FTSE All Share PE was 32.15. Something not adding up somewhere? I don't know. My ...
by magneto
Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1001

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

selters wrote:As of 29 July 2016 MSCI has the trailing PE ratio of the MSCI UK Investible Market Index at 21.59. Its correlation with the FTSE 100 should be very high, kind of like US Total Market vs S&P 500.


As of Friday last, FTSE All Share PE was 32.15.

Something not adding up somewhere?
by magneto
Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1001

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

Having just done so, recent earnings are terrifying. I have real earnings currently at the lowest level they've been since 1993 when my data starts. They are down 73% from their peak, down 47% on a year ago. At the end of January 2016 the PE ratio was 16.6, six months later at the end of July it's ...
by magneto
Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: O'Higgins "Beat the Dow with Bonds"????
Replies: 5
Views: 980

Re: O'Higgins "Beat the Dow with Bonds"????

Thanks for the heads-up. Not previously aware of this book from this author. Seems to be mainly about shifting between Stocks and Bonds (and maybe other assets), dependent on earnings/yields? Not quite mainstream BH reading then perhaps? Out of interest have ordered a used copy for £0.01 plus postag...
by magneto
Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: new potential tenants negotiating on rent
Replies: 72
Views: 6486

Re: new potential tenants negotiating on rent

He called me up today and said the potential renters told him they "can't afford $1600, but can afford $1500" our landlord thinks the're bluffing. The house could rent for $1600. Your thoughts? I want someone who will take care of the place. Get the impression that you may be relatively n...
by magneto
Mon Aug 08, 2016 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's portfolio (UK)
Replies: 6
Views: 890

Re: Wife's portfolio (UK)

1. She is medium to high risk tolerance and definitely would not panic sell and has agreed to a 70:30 equities to bond split for 50k. She will probably never check the portfolio and I will rebalance it once a year if it deviates more than 5% from the allocation. 2. She is a very smart woman but not...
by magneto
Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?
Replies: 16
Views: 1462

Re: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?

Just a reminder. There are three conditions for Stock Markets :- 1. At All-Time Highs 2. Making New Lows 3. Recovering One of the three conditions is likely (but not always) a better situation to be selling Stocks. The investor who tilts to yield, sufficient to generate income needs, side-steps thi...
by magneto
Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?
Replies: 16
Views: 1462

Re: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?

Just a reminder. There are three conditions for Stock Markets :- 1. At All-Time Highs 2. Making New Lows 3. Recovering One of the three conditions is likely (but not always) a better situation to be selling Stocks. The investor who tilts to yield, sufficient to generate income needs, side-steps this...
by magneto
Sun Aug 07, 2016 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 50
Views: 5912

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

Maybe the real issue that provokes continual misunderstanding is equating Bonds with Fixed Income or Non-Stocks? We can hold Fixed Income in Bonds or Cash, or a mix of both. Bonds should outperform if deflation holds sway. It is more difficult to make a case for Bonds at current valuations should in...
by magneto
Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Decline & Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1917

Re: Personal Decline & Investing

My mother is in her late 90s and still as sharp as the following generations! Her math is quite impressive. My father died with his mental capabilities intact. But even so, yes it is a worry we should all address somehow. But maybe with some self-checks in place we can soldier on longer than might b...
by magneto
Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion
Replies: 37
Views: 2390

Re: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion

Am like OP looking for a used DSLR. Would like to add a supplementary question. Are there any DSLR cameras that are not bulky? I.E. that could fit in pocket? by definition an SLR camera is going to be big. if convenience is key, go with point & shoot. Can't see the display on screen in strong s...
by magneto
Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental Rebalancing strategy
Replies: 55
Views: 2826

Re: Rebalancing strategy to preserve dry powder

There in the question seems to be the always fundamental problem of :- Value v Momentum As UK retiree investors, our IPS concerning rebalancing, etc, intended as much as anything to assist our heirs, reads as follows :-. (There is no suggestion here that method(s) are optimal !!!) Method for Rebalan...
by magneto
Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion
Replies: 37
Views: 2390

Re: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion

Am like OP looking for a used DSLR. Would like to add a supplementary question. Are there any DSLR cameras that are not bulky? I.E. that could fit in pocket? by definition an SLR camera is going to be big. if convenience is key, go with point & shoot. Can't see the display on screen in strong s...
by magneto
Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Observation :Will the market go a lot higher ? Most probably
Replies: 13
Views: 2582

Re: Observation :Will the market go a lot higher ? Most probably

At this point in time the interest rates in some countries are negative on bonds newly issued. Just what happens if the rates go below zero here in the U.S. ? ........ My conclusion is that the U.S. market will most probably continue to rise as investors and financial institutions chase these yield...
by magneto
Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion
Replies: 37
Views: 2390

Re: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion

Am like OP looking for a used DSLR.

Would like to add a supplementary question.
Are there any DSLR cameras that are not bulky?
I.E. that could fit in pocket?
by magneto
Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell individual corporate bonds to pay off mortgage?
Replies: 27
Views: 1204

Re: Sell individual corporate bonds to pay off mortgage?

Not entirely sure of the numbers here. Please ignore if below getting this hopelessly wrong! If the Corps are trading well above par as seems likely in today's environment, then yield to maturity will be significantly less than coupon figure quoted? I.E. Yield spreads (gap) between Mortgage and Corp...
by magneto
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2490

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

Much of the thinking thus far seems inclined to the vague and abstract. Rather than perhaps looking at what the individual positions are throwing off in terms of yield, versus historic ranges. May have missed the reference, but did valuations get much of a mention? Unless we are all momentum investo...
by magneto
Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World VCR production is ending next month. What to do with my old VHS tapes?
Replies: 57
Views: 4490

Re: World VCR production is ending next month. What to do with my old VHS tapes?

...Alert to all good frugal BHs - Used DVDs are now incredibly cheap! We are progressively buying used DVD copies of our favourite movies, TV series, etc and chucking out the VHS tapes. DVD seems a far more robust and hence longer-lasting medium. Thank you for that. I never even thought about that....
by magneto
Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World VCR production is ending next month. What to do with my old VHS tapes?
Replies: 57
Views: 4490

Re: World VCR production is ending next month. What to do with my old VHS tapes?

Last time I checked a combination VCR/DVD/HD recorder was still in production. This situation seems then about to change? Perhaps buy one or two spare machines for future use before production ceases? However when a fault arises it is usually on the VCR side of the machine! Good point from Nisi abou...
by magneto
Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...
Replies: 82
Views: 9566

Re: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...

UK investor here. Always find it puzzling that US investors sometimes regard International as a single category! OK some may add EM, but from UK perspective world breaks down into at least :- + US + Asia/Pacific + Europe + UK + EM One fund covering last four does not IMHO cut it! Each region dances...
by magneto
Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times article-Shiller on land and homes
Replies: 18
Views: 2725

Re: NY Times article-Shiller on land and homes

In determining the return on a house one has to add to the cost the maintenance expenses and taxes paid through the years. These can be substantial but are often overlooked. Add in the interest paid if there was a mortgage. Compare to investingl less in housing by paying rent and putting the balanc...
by magneto
Tue Jul 19, 2016 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2522

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

Assume for a moment, that a market cycle plays out as a sine wave, whether horizontal or on an upward sloping trend, then a number of things may happen :- Stocks whether individual, or in aggregate, will move in and out of value; and in and out of momentum. Then viewed as a clock face :- 6.00 to 9.0...
by magneto
Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2522

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

Re recent paper by Asness, Ilmanen & Maloney titled ‘Market Timing is back in the hunt for Investors’ proposes trend following (momentum) as an equal partner to contrarian timing (valuation), i.e. two arrows are better than one. "Financial Markets everywhere seem to exhibit momentum, or tre...
by magneto
Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...
Replies: 82
Views: 9566

Re: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...

UK investor here. Always find it puzzling that US investors sometimes regard International as a single category! OK some may add EM, but from UK perspective world breaks down into at least :- + US + Asia/Pacific + Europe + UK + EM One fund covering last four does not IMHO cut it! Each region dances ...
by magneto
Sat Jul 16, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?
Replies: 15
Views: 1217

Re: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?

I have a general question - does the very low interest rate environment have an effect on the safety of bonds/bond funds? Does the decreased ability of governments to lower interest rates, because they are already so low, have and effect on how bonds would react to a stock market downturn. Godzilla...
by magneto
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 12707

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

If we subscribe to the "take your risk on the Stock-side not the Fixed-Income Side", then we will be looking to invest Fixed Income in :- 1. Cash (CDs etc) 2. Short-Term Treasuries 3. Short-Term IG Bonds. The snag with Short-Term Treasuries is the probable -ve real yield, dependent on the ...
by magneto
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?
Replies: 29
Views: 4370

Re: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?

Think it is Rick Ferri who says something like how was the money invested previously, then reinstate (in terms of Stock/Bond/Cash weightings) before thinking about moving ahead ? Otherwise the portfolio has experienced a shock change to allocations. And we are all gradualists here, aren't we ? Howev...
by magneto
Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Newbie - 23, advice please!
Replies: 3
Views: 258

Re: UK Newbie - 23, advice please!

I am really pleased that these investments have risen a combined 14% but I feel I don't know where to go next! What do I do, sell and use that profit to reinvest or keep contributing towards the current portfolio that was recommended to me? 'Value Averaging' may be the answer you are looking for ? ...
by magneto
Mon Jul 11, 2016 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 7846

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

reinforced after reading darrow kirkpatrick's excellent new book. Looking at the major market declines of the last 10 years, it takes an average of 3 years for full recovery of the US equity market, the worst several declines taking a full 10 years to recover. If my goal in early retirement is to t...
by magneto
Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First-timer Investing in Bonds and ETFs [UK]
Replies: 14
Views: 853

Re: First-timer Investing in Bonds and ETFs [UK]

I'm a first time investor, looking to invest some money in index tracking ETFs and some in Bonds. I'm based in the UK, therefore I have read the Bogleheads guide to UK investing: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/UK_investing At 29, I believe I would class as a young investor, therefore I am attempti...
by magneto
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs
Replies: 32
Views: 4815

Re: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs

Market conditions maybe in which to try to avoid the investor's ailment of "Rhinophobia" (the dread of ever having any cash).
see Fred Schwed (1940)
by magneto
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..
Replies: 16
Views: 1553

Re: Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..

If you have not already done so, suggest reading Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18.

And don't forget Cash is Fixed Income also.

All Best
by magneto
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 44
Views: 5008

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

They may be extending durations :-

+ To seek Income
+ To seek increased -ve correlation with Stocks (this is not always guaranteed)

They may also be sanguine about volatility on the Fixed Income side?
for portfolio construction reasons or other?
by magneto
Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds - Update
Replies: 55
Views: 4325

Re: Bond Thread Time - International Bonds

I barely want bonds in the first place. I see bonds as security only, not return (except maybe marginal or inflation beating). Diversification means stocks and bonds. No bonds, no diversification. Boglephreak suspect is reflecting on two important issues here, which might be summarised/developed fu...
by magneto
Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 43
Views: 3706

Re: Bond Market Bubble

livesoft wrote:If you believe there is a bond bubble, then shorten durations.......

I suggest the Vanguard short-term corporate bond index for the most credit risk and highest yields.


+1 to Short Term IG Corps

And try to avoid rhinophobia !
by magneto
Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate vs bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 376

Re: Real estate vs bonds

From previous post(s) :- There are four main income producing Asset Classes (Stocks/Bonds/Real Estate/Cash). A 'Well Balanced Portfolio' might and perhaps should have exposure to all four of these Asset Classes? " A house is not really an investment. According to Robert Shiller, probably the pr...

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