Search found 759 matches

by magneto
Fri Sep 23, 2016 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?
Replies: 25
Views: 1998

Re: Should fixed income percentage stay the same in current environment?

Yes, that's right, a prevailing yield increase of 10% would immediately drop the market value of already-issued 5-year-duration bonds by around 50%. ........ the higher yields would eventually make you whole, then better than whole. That's one way in which bonds are different from stocks. PJW This ...
by magneto
Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two questions ["Age in Bonds" vs. Risk Tolerance]
Replies: 24
Views: 1420

Re: Two questions

One thing you should think about is the fact that you have a pension. That may eliminate the need for you to hold bonds at all, depending on the terms of the pension. Bonds and pensions and social security are all fixed income assets that generate steady income. If you can cover your bare expenses ...
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3654

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

MOM is a short term phenomenon, securities that have done well (poorly) in the last year TEND TO continue to perform well (poorly) for about another 5 months on average. Contrarian investing (value) is a LONG TERM phenonomenon. Where things that have done poorly over the long term (like 5 years) te...
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3654

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Here in the UK Vanguard have, within the last year, introduced a Global Momentum Fund VMOM.

Performance to date so so, not covered itelf with glory.

Presumably Vanguard USA has similar offerings?
by magneto
Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never invest in ....... ?
Replies: 53
Views: 5063

Never invest in ....... ?

There are certain areas of Investment Possibilities that are generally advised here as 'No Go Areas'. Examples are :- - Private Equity - High Yield (Junk) Debt/Bonds The thought occurs that if everyone is carefully avoiding these areas, then there must arrive some price (low) level at which these sp...
by magneto
Sat Sep 17, 2016 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out
Replies: 19
Views: 951

Re: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out

1. Out of curiosity, how do you fight the urge to sell-off when you have such a large draw-down and go into defensive mode (at the worst possible moment)? 2. Can you recommend any investment book on bonds? 3. I am currently reading Phil Fisher's Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. Thanks! 1. Have a...
by magneto
Sat Sep 17, 2016 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3654

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

"In a sense, the market is always a contest between investors and speculators. The real investor, looking chiefly to interest return, but by no means unwilling to make a profit by buying low and selling high, is ready, perhaps to buy his favorite stock at a price which will yield him six percen...
by magneto
Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a 20% swing in my asset allocation
Replies: 41
Views: 2923

Re: Considering a 20% swing in my asset allocation

I am 64 years old, I retired two years ago, and my net worth is about $1.6M excluding my home. It is beginning to make sense to me to change my asset allocation from 50% equity/50% fixed income, to 30%/70%. Please tell me if my rationale makes sense to you. within two years our Social Security/pens...
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing
Replies: 41
Views: 2354

Re: market timing

Market timing. Benjamin Graham has this to say in The Intelligent Investor. "Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings....
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the upcoming bond bubble
Replies: 16
Views: 1954

Re: the upcoming bond bubble

I know that the general sentiment on this board is that there is no bond bubble and nothing to worry about in that sector, but let's pretend for a second that there actually was one. What do you suppose this would do to the rest of the market? Would the shock rout stocks as well? Not sure about the...
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing
Replies: 41
Views: 2354

Re: market timing

The main methods of allocating Assets :- 1. Tactical Asset Allocation aka Market Timing An endeavour to seek out the most or least promising Asset going forward for short-term outperformance, using such tools as economic criteria, valuations, or plain moving averages/accel/decel chartism. Can someti...
by magneto
Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out
Replies: 19
Views: 951

Re: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out

"@magneto: When you put in a limit order do you try and match the NAV or what do you mean by deal at specified prices? I normally just put in a market order. Happy to hear how I could improve this." HeroicGlaedr The main advantage for a limit order is the ability to define/control the pric...
by magneto
Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best books [on investing strategy]
Replies: 26
Views: 2180

Re: Best books [on investing strategy]

Worth considering :-

The Informed Investor by Frank Armstrong
A Wealth of Common Sense by Ben Carlson
The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks
Guide to Investment Strategy by Peter Stanyer
by magneto
Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing
Replies: 10
Views: 1415

Re: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing

Overbalancing is a name given by Wm B, to what many others will know as Dynamic Asset Allocation, a form of Variable Ratio Formula Investment Plan, which has been around for at least eighty years plus. And viewed (and employed) with renewed interest by venerable institutions after the 1929 debacle. ...
by magneto
Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?
Replies: 45
Views: 4160

Re: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?

Throughout the day, I usually keep an eye on the S&P 500 average and the 10 yr US Treasury yield. Today, the S&P 500 is down big (-2.45%). but the 10-Yr Bond yield is UP 6 basis points (which mean bond prices are down.) The reason I am so concerned, is that I have a significant amount of mo...
by magneto
Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out
Replies: 19
Views: 951

Re: UK Investment Plan (SIPP + ISA) Starting Out

I am currently thinking of purchasing the S&P 500 ETF (30%), the FTSE All Share Index (40%) and the Fidelity World Fund (30%), which give me very low TERs and reasonable international exposure. For the moment I would leave my Swiss investments as is. Some open questions: Question 1: MSCI World ...
by magneto
Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio overlap
Replies: 2
Views: 277

Re: Portfolio overlap

Hello. I wonder if you guys could give me some advice on how to diversify my (hypothetical) portfolio and get rid of some overlapping stocks. Vanguard FTSE ALL WORLD 70% Fidelity UK index 30% Since VWRL has around ~7% UK equities, by also holding Fidelity UK it means I will be double buying the sam...
by magneto
Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for natural resource equities
Replies: 12
Views: 1101

Re: The case for natural resource equities

I will just say that if you are a bit contrarian in your thinking and you are looking for assets to buy on the cheap, natural resource stocks might be a good place to invest. The problem, and I don't see it as a huge problem, is that commodity producing stocks are still stocks and will still mostly...
by magneto
Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle stock valuation model
Replies: 13
Views: 1517

Re: Bogle stock valuation model

Another thank-you to Larry re the problems with CAPE. Have long struggled to accomodate this figure in DAA thought processes. Some light is now beginning to shine through. In addition the E measure seems itself open to a variety of interpretations? So even basic PE1 thus can vary from source to sour...
by magneto
Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convincing spouse to sell losing investment
Replies: 52
Views: 2958

Re: Convincing spouse to sell losing investment

Several things unknown :- + Are the stocks concerned throwing off useful dividends? . What is the dividend cover and trend of cover looking like? - Have the stocks suffered dividend cuts? + What are the chances of recovery? (difficult that one) - Overall how well diversified is the total portfolio, ...
by magneto
Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund fees unclear, is something hidden? [UK]
Replies: 16
Views: 1163

Re: Fund fees unclear, is something hidden? [UK]

Little confused by the discusssion so far! 'Platform' fees relate to Unit Trusts (Mutual Funds) and similar; not Stocks, ETFs, Investment Trusts, etc. This is why some as noted above prefer ETFs to Unit Trusts. But if HMWO is an ETF, which it seems to be, why pay any 'platform' charges at all? A str...
by magneto
Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension meets my needs. Skip bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2872

Re: Pension meets my needs. Skip bonds?

I am retired, now 15+ years, and my inflation-adjusted pension meets all our ongoing needs, so investmenting really is for heirs or some major unforeseeable calamity that destroys the pension stream................. Question is, why not put all my investments in a worldwide equity ETF, like Vanguar...
by magneto
Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy cash or use a loan to buy a property
Replies: 14
Views: 1187

Re: Should I buy cash or use a loan to buy a property

If a long term aim is a 'Well Balanced Portfolio' then we might be looking for exposure to the four main income producing Asset Classes :- + Stocks + Bonds + Real Estate + Cash How best can this be achieved? Has any one has proposed yet taking out a part mortgage? This would provide some flexibility...
by magneto
Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes this time really is different
Replies: 41
Views: 4987

Re: Sometimes this time really is different

Many economists and economic historians attribute much of the erratic behavior before the mid 30s to the gold standard. Although there's always talk about returning to the gold standard on the one hand and the emergence of bitcoin, etc., on the other hand, I do not see a change in the currency regi...
by magneto
Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can one accurately time the purchase of one's home?
Replies: 9
Views: 989

Re: can one accurately time the purchase of one's home?

Looking at the parallel rental market can give some idea of the prevailing relative home values. Over some decades here in the UK, rental yields have varied between 4% and 12%, as house prices cycled in inflation adjusted terms. Note : Rents generally assumed to rise in line with inflation/incomes. ...
by magneto
Sun Aug 28, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking Profits
Replies: 9
Views: 1041

Re: Taking Profits

1. For these type of questions, suggest reading Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18. 2. As for when to sell from the Stock Bucket and replenish the Fixed Income Bucket; can be a continuing process at whatever the investor considers the most favourable of the three Stock Market condi...
by magneto
Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Fund Timing ?? [Portugal]
Replies: 19
Views: 1246

Re: Index Fund Timing ?? [European resident]

I want to go 90% equities and 10% bonds or maybe even 100% equities since I'm young and I fit all the criteria described on this forum to do so. My biggest question is: -Should I invest on a S&P 500 index fund since it is on a all time high ? I'm thinking that a strategy of avoiding buying inde...
by magneto
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7276

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Would tentatively add the 'Rebalancing Bonus' would not be available to the 100% Stocks investor. That Bonus is maximised at 50/50 (volatile/stable). However most investors will logicallly head towards the 60/40, 70/30 region,since the volatile asset (Stocks) tends to outperform long-term (esp US). ...
by magneto
Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Are Blue Chip Stocks?
Replies: 3
Views: 401

Re: What Are Blue Chip Stocks?

How about the DJ Industrials?
And the selection methods?
by magneto
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX
Replies: 15
Views: 568

Re: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX

Vangarder's strategy sounds remarkably like " Portfolio Insurance" . Most experts now believe this was a major component of the October 19th 1987 Crash, the largest single day crash in history. Basically the strategy required selling as the market fell to prevent portfolio losses. The pro...
by magneto
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1141

Re: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?

Question for Vision (OP) :- If we look at the main methods of allocating Assets :- 1. Tactical Asset Allocation aka Market Timing An endeavour to seek out the most or least promising Asset going forward for short-term outperformance, using such tools as economic criteria, valuations, or plain moving...
by magneto
Wed Aug 17, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 745

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

Stocks are indeed (relative to the past) high priced based on fundamental multiples. Bonds are at unprecedented high prices (based on historical yields). Growth has been sub-par. My hope, is that fundamental growth returns towards more historical norms. Gov't Bonds in quite a few countries are now ...
by magneto
Tue Aug 16, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash in Retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 2467

Re: Cash in Retirement

Answers so far sort of surprised me (little cash). I just read Jane Bryant Quinn and she recommended I believe 2 yrs in cash and some in s/t bonds as well when starting retirement. Seems like cash earning 1% is as good if not better than s/t bonds now. I am worried about selling bonds at a loss whe...
by magneto
Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finding middle ground with spouse on investing
Replies: 30
Views: 3201

Re: Finding middle ground with spouse on investing

bluejello makes very good sense above. Just wondering how your spouse(s) feels about Rental Residential Real Estate? Some exposure to RRRE would seem to tie in well with the longer-term goals for that Asset Class? My wife is very keen on the tangiblity of RE, and has proven an excellent managing lan...
by magneto
Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what to buy when stock market is a new high?
Replies: 37
Views: 5370

Re: what to buy when stock market is a new high?

1. Draw up an Investment Plan, if not already drafted.

2. If inertia/valuations a problem, take a look at 'Value Averaging'.
Might just appeal?
by magneto
Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3442

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

If it helps, we use valuation driven Dynamic Asset Allocations, and have done so for about 35+ years. It forced us gradually to reduce Stocks in the run-up to 2000, move into Real Estate late 90s with released proceeds; and gradually back into Stocks 2008/9 and so on. Whether this has increased perf...
by magneto
Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1052

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

My suspicion was that differences in figures might be attributable to normalising of earnings employed by MSCI but not FTSE. That in itself raises questions about how much we can trust Co Accounts/Finance Directors to :- 1. Produce realistic reported unadjusted earnings. 2. Estimate reasonable under...
by magneto
Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it un-bogle like to time your initial purchase of index funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1554

Re: Is it un-bogle like to time your initial purchase of index funds?

If it helps, IMHO Stocks are expensive, but not unreasonably so. A future rapid run-up is just as likely as a future major fall. In other words (like most others) haven't a clue about market direction. So am (again like most others), in no position to answer the question to your satisfaction. If how...
by magneto
Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1052

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

As of 29 July 2016 MSCI has the trailing PE ratio of the MSCI UK Investible Market Index at 21.59. Its correlation with the FTSE 100 should be very high, kind of like US Total Market vs S&P 500. As of Friday last, FTSE All Share PE was 32.15. Something not adding up somewhere? I don't know. My ...
by magneto
Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1052

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

selters wrote:As of 29 July 2016 MSCI has the trailing PE ratio of the MSCI UK Investible Market Index at 21.59. Its correlation with the FTSE 100 should be very high, kind of like US Total Market vs S&P 500.


As of Friday last, FTSE All Share PE was 32.15.

Something not adding up somewhere?
by magneto
Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 1052

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

Having just done so, recent earnings are terrifying. I have real earnings currently at the lowest level they've been since 1993 when my data starts. They are down 73% from their peak, down 47% on a year ago. At the end of January 2016 the PE ratio was 16.6, six months later at the end of July it's ...
by magneto
Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: O'Higgins "Beat the Dow with Bonds"????
Replies: 5
Views: 1013

Re: O'Higgins "Beat the Dow with Bonds"????

Thanks for the heads-up. Not previously aware of this book from this author. Seems to be mainly about shifting between Stocks and Bonds (and maybe other assets), dependent on earnings/yields? Not quite mainstream BH reading then perhaps? Out of interest have ordered a used copy for £0.01 plus postag...
by magneto
Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: new potential tenants negotiating on rent
Replies: 72
Views: 6721

Re: new potential tenants negotiating on rent

He called me up today and said the potential renters told him they "can't afford $1600, but can afford $1500" our landlord thinks the're bluffing. The house could rent for $1600. Your thoughts? I want someone who will take care of the place. Get the impression that you may be relatively n...
by magneto
Mon Aug 08, 2016 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's portfolio (UK)
Replies: 6
Views: 896

Re: Wife's portfolio (UK)

1. She is medium to high risk tolerance and definitely would not panic sell and has agreed to a 70:30 equities to bond split for 50k. She will probably never check the portfolio and I will rebalance it once a year if it deviates more than 5% from the allocation. 2. She is a very smart woman but not...
by magneto
Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?
Replies: 16
Views: 1508

Re: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?

Just a reminder. There are three conditions for Stock Markets :- 1. At All-Time Highs 2. Making New Lows 3. Recovering One of the three conditions is likely (but not always) a better situation to be selling Stocks. The investor who tilts to yield, sufficient to generate income needs, side-steps thi...
by magneto
Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?
Replies: 16
Views: 1508

Re: Generate cash vs long-term growth - bad idea?

Just a reminder. There are three conditions for Stock Markets :- 1. At All-Time Highs 2. Making New Lows 3. Recovering One of the three conditions is likely (but not always) a better situation to be selling Stocks. The investor who tilts to yield, sufficient to generate income needs, side-steps this...
by magneto
Sun Aug 07, 2016 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 50
Views: 6020

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

Maybe the real issue that provokes continual misunderstanding is equating Bonds with Fixed Income or Non-Stocks? We can hold Fixed Income in Bonds or Cash, or a mix of both. Bonds should outperform if deflation holds sway. It is more difficult to make a case for Bonds at current valuations should in...
by magneto
Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Decline & Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1955

Re: Personal Decline & Investing

My mother is in her late 90s and still as sharp as the following generations! Her math is quite impressive. My father died with his mental capabilities intact. But even so, yes it is a worry we should all address somehow. But maybe with some self-checks in place we can soldier on longer than might b...
by magneto
Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion
Replies: 37
Views: 2470

Re: Buying a used DSLR Suggestion

Am like OP looking for a used DSLR. Would like to add a supplementary question. Are there any DSLR cameras that are not bulky? I.E. that could fit in pocket? by definition an SLR camera is going to be big. if convenience is key, go with point & shoot. Can't see the display on screen in strong s...

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