Search found 866 matches

by madsinger
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1462

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Data looks great. But I wish the actual fund names were listed that correspond to those ticker symbols :confused VFINX: 500 Index Fund VIVAX: Value Index NAESX: Small-Cap Index VISVX: Small-Cap Value Index VGSIX: REIT Index VGTSX: Total International Stock Index VINEX: International Explorer VBMFX:...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1462

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Another positive month for US stocks. Every month this year has had positive returns for the S&P 500. All four components of the permanent portfolio are positive for the year and two with double digit returns. Enjoy the returns in your portfolio, but don't forget to rebalance and confirm that your p...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1462

madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)
Replies: 5
Views: 990

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)

Long Bonds and Gold took a hit in September, while stocks rose to records again. The S&P 500 index has not only had a good year, it has been positive every month of the year! That kind of "steadiness" is very nice, but I hope does not lead investors into a false sense of security! STOCK LONG BOND CA...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)
Replies: 5
Views: 990

madsinger monthly report (September 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20,...
by madsinger
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping question....Applebees
Replies: 87
Views: 7020

Re: Tipping question....Applebees

My wife and I went to a pizza place for dinner last weekend. We ordered a small pizza to split. They brought out complimentary rolls and olive oil for dipping. We drink water with our meals. We had a nice meal, nice ambiance, and a chance to talk without distraction for an hour. Our bill was $11.99 ...
by madsinger
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment
Replies: 24
Views: 1192

Re: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment

From March 31, 2000 to September 20, 2007 (7-1/2 years), $10,000 in S&P 500 went up to $11,500 (up +2% per year) and the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth fund had $10,000 drop to $8,610 (down -2% per year). Total up 15% versus down 14%. Pretty bad underperformance over seven years. Yes, of course I cherry ...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2351

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Thanks! I'm too scared to go all the way back to center, but maybe your bands are tight enough that I could do that. For instance, you said ST bonds were 10% below target, if target was 8%, then falling to 7.2% is "tight" and still 10% below target, so rebalancing back to 8% would be easy for me to...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2351

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

We also hit a high trigger point based on Monday's closing prices and rebalanced, but bought some small-cap value. Did you rebalance back to the center point of your rebalancing bands or to just under the trigger point? I go back to the AA target...basically the center of the band. Usually when som...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2351

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Rebalanced yesterday. Sold a chunk of US stock and a bigger chunk of International stock to buy short term bonds. The records being set in the stock indexes finally pushed them over my (tight) rebalancing band. The laggard this year has been cash and short term bonds, as long bonds, gold and stocks ...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2351

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Question : Are the costs of the newsletters accounted for in the returns? Do you know what the newsletters do cost? The cost of the newsletter is not included in the returns. I am not a subscriber, so I don't have a first hand account. My understanding is the cost is about $100 per year. On a $100,...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2351

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

updated chart with newsletter results.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2351

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Stocks ended the month on a strong note, bringing most of the portfolios positive for the month. The trend of large beating small and growth beating value continued this month. So, any portfolios tilting towards "small" and "value" underperformed their total stock returns again. For the year, total ...
by madsinger
Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2351

madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Intl Index Fund:ADMRL vs INVESTOR
Replies: 8
Views: 1321

Re: Vanguard Total Intl Index Fund:ADMRL vs INVESTOR

Related question: With the expense ratio, over time, won't there be a price-per-share drift over a long enough timeline? That half-gallon container might be more like a 3/8 gallon container after a decade. It could...except probably not. The expense ratio tends to be taken out of the dividends. As ...
by madsinger
Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1124

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Some boffo numbers for the first seven months of 2017. Many portfolios sporting double digit returns year to date. There is quite a bit of spread in the asset classes this year: US Large (S&P 500) up +11.5%, small cap and large value around 6-7%, and tilt darling small value just 3.3% YTD (SV was th...
by madsinger
Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1124

madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 924

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2017)

The first half of 2017 has been quite good to investors. Stock heavy portfolios up near 10%, and even conservative portfolios with 50% or less stock are up around 5%. Portfolios whose US stocks tilt toward small and value have not kept up with "total stock" portfolios this year (Total Stock up about...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 924

madsinger monthly report (June 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1273

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)

Permanent Portfolio had a good month, helped again (to my surprise) by Long Bonds, up +1.74% for the month. Such an odd comment to make from a boglehead. Do you have any data to support being able to predict with any accuracy short term movement of Long term treasuries? You are absolutely right. Of...
by madsinger
Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1273

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)

US stocks moved less in sync in May than they have in a long time. US Large: +1.39%, YTD: 8.6% US Large Value: +0.11%, YTD: 3.3% US Small: -1.15%, YTD: 3.4% US Small Value: -2.36%, YTD: -0.05% So, any tilt towards "value" or "small" away from Total Stock Market has resulted in lower returns for the ...
by madsinger
Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1273

madsinger monthly report (May 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Tue May 09, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1442

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

investor wrote:Brad: here are the newsletter data:
fund, month, ytd

Growth 1.5%, 8.1%
Con Gw 1.3%, 7.5%
Income 1.4%, 6.8%
Growth Idx 1.3%, 7.2%

Thanks for your time and postings.

investor
Thank you, investor. I have updated the charts with this data.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon May 08, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1442

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

Did coffeehouse really not go up as much as LS MG (VSMGX)? The differences between these two portfolios all "favored" the Life Strategy funds this past month. Total International fund was up +2.2% for the month (the largest return of the component classes this month), and the LS fund is 24% Total I...
by madsinger
Mon May 08, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1442

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

A little late this month. Nothing too out of the ordinary for a generally positive month. Europe, and thus international stocks, had a good month. Positive returns for the four segments of the permanent portfolio this past month and year to date numbers are pretty gawdy after four months. We all kno...
by madsinger
Mon May 08, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1442

madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

Busy week last week --- just getting this out now. Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four cat...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foolish question about VT [Vanguard Total World Stock]
Replies: 10
Views: 1260

Re: Foolish question about VT

I thought you were going to ask a foolish question about Vermont. Perhaps you should revise your question so you won't attract readers like me. Me too! Without looking at the question, I was coming up with possible answers! "yes, we drink maple sap from the trees" "yes, public nudity...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 871

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2017)

A fairly mild month of returns. International stocks had a strong month. Permanent portfolio numbers: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January 1.85% 0.65% 0.08% 5.32% 1.93% February 3.92% 1.57% 0.08% 3.17% 2.16% March 0.07% -0.58% 0.09% -0.25% -0.16% YTD 5.75% 2.59% 0.25% 8.94% 4.28%
by madsinger
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 871

madsinger monthly report (March 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a beginner opening a ROTH at Vanguard
Replies: 16
Views: 1556

Re: Help for a beginner opening a ROTH at Vanguard

Congratulations on deciding to start a Roth IRA at 29! To start a Roth IRA at Vanguard, I believe the minimum investment amount is $1000. If you have that to get started, great! If not, just continue to save (in a bank account?) until you do. Vanguard's Target Retirement funds have a $1000 minimum i...
by madsinger
Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2100

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Rebalance update: For those following the madsinger portfolio to see how a real-world portfolio behaves, I wanted to let you know that yesterday I rebalanced by selling some Total Internaional Stock fund and buying my Short Term bond fund. And to update my last rebalance effort, against my gut and i...
by madsinger
Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help! Tax return involving trust.
Replies: 2
Views: 247

Help! Tax return involving trust.

Hello esteemed colleagues, I'm looking for background for filing taxes involving a trust. Background: There's an older married couple. Husband dies in late 2015. I help widow with 2015 taxes last year (straightforward, married filing jointly). In 2016, husband's estate moves into family trust with s...
by madsinger
Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2100

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

I am somewhat new to investing and as I look at the madsinger monthly report it looks to me like an easy and preferable strategy would be to just buy VFINX since it beat all the other portfolios in the short term and more importantly in the long term. I am sure if maximum drawdowns were shown there...
by madsinger
Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2100

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Is this a static portfolio with no changes to the asset allocation, and no new contributions/distributions? For the portfolios in the chart, I set the percentages at the beginning of the year. For the next 12 months, it's on autopilot, no buys or sells. At the end of the year, it rebalances back to...
by madsinger
Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2100

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Strong month for stocks. Positive month for everything in the charts except Vanguard Precious Metals, down over -4%. Gold itself rose for the month. The madsinger Permanent portfolio performed well, and so for this year (two months...) each of the four asset classes have risen each month. That isn't...
by madsinger
Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2100

madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 1454

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2017)

Pretty much a positive month all around for the portfolios. Bonds, US stocks up. Int'l stocks up smartly (in the 4% to 5% range). Gold had a strong month (up over 5%). The permanent portfolio gained in all four classes (see below). A nice investing start to 2017. -Brad. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD POR...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 1454

madsinger monthly report (January 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 2538

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Newsletter returns are now entered into the chart.

The "number 1 performing portfolio" in the past 10 years, by the slimmest of margins: Wellington at 6.89% annualized return. Makes me wonder why I'm even trying to do anything different than that!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 2559

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

livesoft wrote:It is fun to root for SCV to drop after one has sold it, isn't it?


well...I still hold quite a chunk of small cap value, so I can't really say that I'm rooting for it to drop!

But, it was up almost 25% last year, so it was the most "over" stock fund I had for rebalancing.
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 2538

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

2016 had a wide spray of returns, even within the year itself. US stocks, measured by Total Stock Market index fund, returned about +12.5%. Large caps (S&P 500) returned about 12%, and small cap value returned almost 25% (the number one performing Vanguard investor class stock fund this year). I...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 2538

madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, ...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 2559

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

update on rebalance switch from last month. Of course, three weeks is not a good time frame to measure investment performance, but I thought it was interesting that after my rebalance on December 9 from Small Cap Value to Long Term Treasury, from that point to the end of the year (yes, I know, three...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 2559

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

...I should clarify. The real "trigger" for rebalancing is that my stocks got over 55% of my portfolio, more than 5% over the 50% target, and that is what triggered the wholesale rebalance. If my US stocks were up that much, something was down, and that was bonds, gold, and REITs.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 2559

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

Brad: you are now buying Long Bonds in a probably rising interest rate environment ? Did I read that correctly? investor Yes, you read that correctly. This is most certainly not a guess on where I think Long Bonds will be in the near or far future. This is, in fact, the very opposite of guessing wh...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 2559

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

Today I rebalanced...a tough one from a "gut check" point of view. Long bonds were down over 22% from their target value, and Gold (IAU) was down over 16% from its target, REITs down about 10% from target, while US stocks were a fat chunk over. Buying a wad of long bonds and gold today was...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 2559

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

A pretty quiet month. Nothing really to report here... OR MAYBE NOT!!! Yes, November was quite a month for the markets. US stock markets up 3% to 6% for large caps, and as high as 10% for small cap value. Bonds were down in the -2% to -3% range. International stocks down in the -1% to -2% for develo...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 2559

madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...
by madsinger
Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2016)
Replies: 3
Views: 776

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2016)

Not a lot of places to hide in October. US and International large caps down -1% to -2%. Small caps down -3% to -4%. Bonds lost a -0.1%. REITs were down over -5%, precious metals down over -6%. Of all of the funds I track, only the Emerging Markets fund was up, +0.6%. Madsinger permanent portfolio: ...
by madsinger
Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2016)
Replies: 3
Views: 776

madsinger monthly report (October 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...