Search found 787 matches

by madsinger
Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Chart has been updated with Newsletter returns. Others have pointed out over the past few years that the newsletter's portfolios are more stock heavy than the others in the chart. I have resisted moving them from their "growth", "moderate growth", "conservative growth" ...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

investor wrote:Thanks Brad.
here is your missing newsletter information
January and YTD
Growth (6.5)%
Cons Gtrowth (5.8)%
Income Model (3.4)%
Growth Idx (5.0)


investor


Thank you investor! I will update my charts in the morning (after a few hours of sleep)!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Feb 01, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

No surprises here, assuming you have heard anything about the stock market in the past month. Stock funds lost in the range of -5% to -7% for the month of January. REITs a little less bad at -3.36%, precious metals fund down -2.2%. Bonds were up for the month, Total Bond fund up 1.43%. The permanent...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 01, 2016 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 6
Views: 932

madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to figure out when to switch funds??
Replies: 4
Views: 357

Re: How to figure out when to switch funds??

I assume that all of the dividends, short term gains and long term gains that you posted above were "already distributed" during the 2015 calendar year. You will pay taxes on these gains with your 2015 tax return. (also, the reason you may not "have access" to tax information, is...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to figure out when to switch funds??
Replies: 4
Views: 357

Re: How to figure out when to switch funds??

You probably have long term capital gains dating back from 2013. It is very likely that contributions made in this past year (2015) are showing short term losses (but you'll have to check your account). If this is true, then I would just exchange your high cost funds to Spartan's right away. You wil...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 884

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Looking ahead to 2016, for the "hot hands" idea (best performing diversified fund from previous year), a sorting of the Vanguard funds by asset class shows: Domestic: US Growth 8.47% International: International Explorer: 8.60% Sector: Health Care: 12.65% I will select one of these. I don'...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 884

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

2015 is in the books, and the portfolio returns are mostly flat across the board. Full year returns all within a couple of percentage points of zero. The biggest hit to portfolios were anything gold/energy/natural resources (precious metals fund down over -29%). Also, emerging markets down over -15%...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 884

madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 0 months, 10 years 0 months, 5 years 0 months, 3 years 0 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...
by madsinger
Tue Dec 08, 2015 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my XIRR spreadsheet
Replies: 12
Views: 1442

Re: Critique my XIRR spreadsheet

As someone else pointed out, your "absolute return" line is a little strange. It's simply how big your account is now relative to the first deposit. I'm not sure how meaningful that is. As for your XIRR, it looks correct to me. As for re-invested dividends, you don't really need to count t...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2015)
Replies: 5
Views: 1170

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2015)

A few days late...I was out of town this week. Gold got crunched in November, so the madsinger portfolios got hit accordingly. Here's the returns for the permanent portfolio: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -3.14% 9.37% 0.08% 8.37% 3.40% February 5.68% -5.65% 0.08% -5.79% -1.43% March -1...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2015)
Replies: 5
Views: 1170

madsinger monthly report (November 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2015)
Replies: 9
Views: 939

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2015)

Stocks had a big month in October, all rising strongly, and bringing most portfolio YTD returns positive again. Small stocks are still down a little YTD, so portfolios emphasizing these stocks are trailing a bit. Permanent portfolio (returns listed above) had only its second positive month of the ye...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2015)
Replies: 9
Views: 939

madsinger monthly report (October 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...
by madsinger
Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Internal Rate of Return Calculation Question
Replies: 21
Views: 1186

Re: Internal Rate of Return Calculation Question

Adding detail to pshonore's advice to be careful when entering dates, does the second of the following three lines from the example that results in an error make sense? 1/12/2015 550 1/12/ 2105 450 1/26/2015 450 FactualFran wins the sharp-eyed award! Brilliant! And, what is interesting, is the 7/1/...
by madsinger
Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

I've been seeing these, and they are quite interesting. One that puzzles me is the "Hot hands". From searching the forum I gather it's the best Vanguard managed fund from last year or something? If so, what is the fund? If not, then what the heck is it? Earl The "Hot Hands" fund...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

pkcrafter wrote:How did you get everything lined up this month?

Paul


Hmmm....I don't understand this question. Can you reword it in another way?

-Brad.
by madsinger
Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

No big surprises here, if you paid attention to returns in September. The returns for the madsinger Permanent Portfolio: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -3.14% 9.37% 0.08% 8.37% 3.40% February 5.68% -5.65% 0.08% -5.79% -1.43% March -1.61% 1.13% 0.08% -2.22% -0.67% April 0.91% -3.06% 0.08...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20,...
by madsinger
Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starbucks gift card - how does it work?
Replies: 5
Views: 597

Re: Starbucks gift card - how does it work?

I suspect that Amazon sent you an "activated" card. This is how it worked for me when I got a card from Discover. If you want to, you can go to Starbucks.com and check the balance on the card using the long code of digits on the back. Starbucks may make you "register" the card, t...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 2318

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds I have some questions regarding several of the portfolios that appear in these monthly reports. ⋅ What is the source for the Newsletter G and Newsletter G-IND portfolios?   ⋅ What are their constituent asse...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 796

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2015)

No surprises here. All portfolios down for the month. Any diversification away from stocks helped minimize the damage. My permanent portfolio suffered less badly (only 25% stocks), but as of August, the only component of my permanent portfolio that is positive YTD is cash. Here's the data for PP: ST...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 796

madsinger monthly report (August 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)
Replies: 95
Views: 10608

Re: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)

Well...around the end of last month, I was getting near my rebalancing bands --- needed to sell some stocks, and buy some bonds and gold. This month has pretty much taken care of that rebalancing for me!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Aug 04, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 2318

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

Updated with newsletter numbers. I have been doing this report for about 10 years, and I believe this is the first report where the S&P 500 fund is leading the Hot Hands fund (comparing the 10 year/ 7 month returns). (in fact, leading in the 1,3,5 and 10 year returns...though not 16). There's no...
by madsinger
Mon Aug 03, 2015 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 2318

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

Kind of a spray in returns in July. Large US stocks up 1% to 2%, small US down -1% to -0.3%. Developed int'l up a bit, emerging (think Greece) down -6.8%. REITs up 5.6%, gold down -6.7% and Precious Metals stock fund down over -16%. My PP was flast last month, long bonds up over 4%, gold down over -...
by madsinger
Mon Aug 03, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 2318

madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 01, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1114

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)

investor wrote:thanks Brad.... where you get the numbers, the newsletter is not yet posted :-)

investor


I got them from the website:

http://adviseronline.investorplace.com/

lower right hand corner. I assumed that the newsletter always came out before the website was updated!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1114

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)

June was pretty much a negative all around. Not a single portfolio, nor even a fund within a portfolio was positive for the month - stocks and bond. Alas, not a lot of defense in the permanent portfolio either. -Brad. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -3.14% 9.37% 0.08% 8.37% 3.40% Februar...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1114

madsinger monthly report (June 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?
Replies: 50
Views: 5309

Re: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?

I have three friends in my area that sold their houses in the last two weeks. The first sold at "asking price" on the first day it was out. The second sold their house "at asking" even before it was officially listed. The third got two offers on the first day, and took, the highe...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2015)
Replies: 3
Views: 819

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2015)

Not so many "big movers" in May. For the year, International stocks and small caps are doing quite well. Bonds closer to zero (longer bonds negative, shorter positive) and REITs the only class down over -1% (at -1.8%). Monthly results for the madsinger permanent portfolio: STOCK LONG BOND ...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2015)
Replies: 3
Views: 819

madsinger monthly report (May 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Wed May 06, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1086

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

Hi Brad: I have trouble calling the Hot Hands timing strategy a "portfolio". It is one single fund and is therefore horribly undiversified as a "portfolio". For that reason, it isn't comparable to the other more diversified strategies that a sensible investor would use. I couldn...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1086

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

April had a wide variation in returns: US Large cap up about 1%, US small caps down -1.5%, International up over 5% with emerging markets up over 9%, REITs down almost -6%. Gold was mostly flat, but the PM fund was up over 9%. I don't know if this is noteworthy (but I guess I'll note it), the "...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1086

madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Fri May 01, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?
Replies: 65
Views: 7430

Re: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?

Me too. Running Firefox, and the font got weird this afternoon. I thought it was just me.
by madsinger
Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1987

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

What is the XIRR? XIRR is the Excel spreadsheet function for returning the "Internal Rate of Return". The internal rate of return is a somewhat theoretical number that answers the question "what single rate of return applied to a series and investments and withdrawals would result in ...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 28, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1987

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

I should have explained the chart columns: The seven columns are 1) date of purchase, 2) value of NASDAQ index, 3) investment amount, 4) number "shares of the NASDAQ" purchased, 5) cumulative number of shares purchased, 6) value of investment, 7) cumulative investment amount You can see th...
by madsinger
Sun Apr 26, 2015 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1987

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

It looks like we're converging to the result. Yes, 9.2% is the internal rate of return for investing the same amount each year on March 10 from 2000 to 2015. The numbers looks like this for those interested: 3/10/2000 5,048.62 $10,000.00 1.980739291 1.980739291 $10,000.00 $10,000.00 3/9/2001 2,052.7...
by madsinger
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1987

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

No reinvested dividends...just looking at the index value. (I don't know the current dividend yield for the NASDAQ, but I imagine it is not very big).

Nominal rate of return. Not "real" rate of return (i.e. not inflation adjusted).

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1987

XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

Now that the NASDAQ Index has finally surpassed the maximum value it reached over 15 years ago, I figured there would be lots of "the NASDAQ returned 0% over 15 years" in the upcoming years. So, I wondered, if you invested the same amount of money (e.g. $10,000) each year on March 10 (or t...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1582

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

What is "hot hands? The "Hot Hand" strategy is not a portfolio, but rather a single fund. The idea is that a fund that did well one year may exhibit good returns the next. The basic strategy is to rank all "diversified" Vanguard Mutual funds by one-year return, and to selec...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1582

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

Mixed month. Large US stocks down about -1.5%, small cap up about +1.2%. International in line with US Large. Bonds up for the month. In the "specials", REIT up +1.72%, precious metals and mining fund down -9.13%. My permanent portfolio sub-portfolio data: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOL...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1582

madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"
Replies: 13
Views: 1683

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"

Would anybody like to see a Vanguard Lifestrategy Aggressive that is 0% bonds? Maybe there is already something similar, but I would love to see this for custom mixing a portfolio at higher than 80% bonds. Isn't this pretty much the Total World Stock index fund? https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...
by madsinger
Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More XIRR Questions
Replies: 19
Views: 1721

Re: More XIRR Questions

OK, got it. So if the first date is, for example, 8/1/2014 and the last is 12/31/2014, it gives me the annualized returns and not the returns for the 8/14-12/14 period? Yes...it will be "annualized". To be precise, XIRR internally determines a DAILY rate of return (IDR). To print a number...
by madsinger
Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1465

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

feeling smug that I have my "permanent portfolio" on days when stocks get thrown for a loop.

S&P 500 down -1.41% today.

....and....

Long bonds down -2.14%

and gold... down -2.76%

d'oh!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1465

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

Stocks had a big positive month in February. Bonds and gold were down. The portfolios all behaved accordingly. The portions of the Permanent Portfolio all flipped from last month: STOCK BOND CASH GOLD Total January -3.14% 9.37% 0.08% 8.37% 3.40% February 5.68% -5.65% 0.08% -5.79% -1.43% YTD 2.23% 3....
by madsinger
Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1465

madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...

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