Search found 275 matches

by mac808
Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative yields a consequence of declining population?
Replies: 10
Views: 1086

Re: Negative yields a consequence of declining population?

I think some famous historian said that ''Demography is Destiny''. I agree with that. Declining populations in the first world (and globally I believe excluding Africa) will radically change assumptions about how economics should work and the future pricing of assets. Combine that with VR/AR and it ...
by mac808
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

A.) I am a (26/31/42) year old who (sold a business/retired from Poker/inherited a windfall) worth ($1.3M/$4.2M/$57M), how much can I take out each year and still have this money last the rest of my life B.) My spouse and I are 54 - 66 and want to retire, our portfolio value is 25x our annual expen...
by mac808
Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Navy Fed "code word"--is this the wave of the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 3545

Re: Navy Fed "code word"--is this the wave of the future?

Sounds like they are asking you to create a second password, and I would just treat it as such. 2-factor authentication using a phone to text a temporary PIN is by far my favorite backup security method and I'm starting to nag all the institutions I do business with to get it set up. I believe Fidel...
by mac808
Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Opening a medical office...Can it still be done?
Replies: 18
Views: 2965

Re: Opening a medical office...Can it still be done?

How is AMC penetration in your area?
by mac808
Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes this time really is different
Replies: 41
Views: 4988

Re: Past performance does not guarantee future returns

But with bond yields the way they are.. what would a SWR look like? 1%? "SWR" can never fall below 3.33%. The SWR is defined as "the spending level that is 'guaranteed' to last 30 years". It makes no statements about lasting 31 years or longer. You can always buy a 30-year TIPS ...
by mac808
Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Starting a CPA firm
Replies: 15
Views: 1245

Re: Starting a CPA firm

I'll speak from the perspective of an entrepreneur and small business owner. A great CPA is hard to find. If you're hard working, knowledgeable and available on call for questions/problems then you should have no trouble building up a client base in no time. You'd be amazed how much money you can ma...
by mac808
Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parent Obamacare Tax Penalty For College Student
Replies: 31
Views: 2242

Re: Parent Obamacare Tax Penalty For College Student

How old are you and what is your insurance? I believe kids can stay on parents plan until 26.
by mac808
Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which physician job offer would you go for and why?
Replies: 39
Views: 4013

Re: Which physician job offer would you go for and why?

I've seen close friends and relatives go through q2 and q3 call and it creates a lot of burnout. There's no way the extra pay is worth the extra call, even if that was the only difference between the two gigs. He could probably provide locums coverage for vacationing nephrologists or even pick up ED...
by mac808
Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spine injury - How can I get health insurance?
Replies: 31
Views: 2445

Re: Spine injury - How can I get health insurance?

If you live in California then you should qualify for Medi-Cal, CA's version of medicaid which the ACA expanded. 1 in 3 Californians receive free health care under Medi-Cal. Yes, but is this better than employer-health care? I think I have limited providers that I can see. I am wanting to consult p...
by mac808
Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spine injury - How can I get health insurance?
Replies: 31
Views: 2445

Re: Spine injury - How can I get health insurance?

If you live in California then you should qualify for Medi-Cal, CA's version of medicaid which the ACA expanded. 1 in 3 Californians receive free health care under Medi-Cal.
by mac808
Sun Aug 28, 2016 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 21717

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

OP netted a lot of money. One time. And how does it go from here. Can OP replicate it? If so, then this forum is of no use. I believe your comment that Brown Brother Harriman "excel at separating clueless wealthy families from their money via inflated annual fees" is disrespectful and unw...
by mac808
Sun Aug 28, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 21717

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

Brown Brothers Harriman - https://www.bbh.com/en-us You have the kind of money that will benefit from professional advice. You can thank me later. These guys are active managers. They seem to be Value investors following the disciplines of Benjamin Graham. I see references here to "intrinsic v...
by mac808
Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 21717

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

I'm not too far behind you and manage everything myself. I have the bulk (80%+) in a lazy portfolio at Fidelity. With the remainder I have small allocations in seed investing, peer to peer lending, private equity, gold coins, etc. Areas that interest me. I used to have a bunch of rental houses but t...
by mac808
Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie
Replies: 41
Views: 4632

Re: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie

I might recommend going for something like DVY over total index so that he can pull out closer to 4% in dividend income, recognizing that he'll be sacrificing higher total return over time. I think a true SWR at his age is likely around 2.5% but that may simply be too low for him to tolerate and he ...
by mac808
Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie
Replies: 41
Views: 4632

Re: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie

Thanks to all for the input. I'm talking to him next week and will recommend a fee-only advisor and a 4% SWR presumably in a 70/30 ish lazy portfolio. He wants at least some cash flow now so can't totally set it and forget about it for 40 years. I was asked for advice directly but more along the lin...
by mac808
Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie
Replies: 41
Views: 4632

Re: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie

Thanks for the feedback. Any thoughts on a better setup for a young kid like this? Trying to steer clear of an irrevocable trust due to the lack of anyone willing to be a non corporate trustee and the relatively low AUM.
by mac808
Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie
Replies: 41
Views: 4632

Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie

A friend's younger brother came to me for advice upon receiving a sizeable (mid six figures) financial inheritance. Suffice it to say that this young man fits the profile of someone who will blow through these funds within a couple years, at most. He has minimal income from part-time minimum wage jo...
by mac808
Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much MLP is reasonable in a portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1248

Re: How much MLP is reasonable in a portfolio?

The short answer is no, MLPs have no place in 99% of balanced portfolios. Most of them are yield chasing principal risking demons.
by mac808
Mon Aug 15, 2016 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 299
Views: 39105

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

A million dollars isn't what it used to be. A "millionaire" is no big deal, depending on your age. It puts you in the 1%. That's a pretty big deal. You are probably more wealthy and well off than 99.9% of persons throughout history. That's a pretty big deal. Maybe globally, but not the to...
by mac808
Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 299
Views: 39105

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

I felt poorer at $1m than when I was flat broke. Like having that $ in the bank was a ticket behind the curtain and once I met the Wizard I realized how poor I was relative to other clever, hard working high achievers in the world. Very strange psychological effect. I guess once you get a bite of th...
by mac808
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents TOO frugal - leave it be???
Replies: 34
Views: 4008

Re: Parents TOO frugal - leave it be???

Some people enjoy the journey more than the destination.
by mac808
Sun Aug 07, 2016 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 80
Views: 6392

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Is the $1000 promo still active for Merrill Edge? I only see $600 on their website.
by mac808
Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stats on Americans 'cutting the cable' ?
Replies: 98
Views: 9848

Re: Stats on Americans 'cutting the cable' ?

I cut the cord awhile back. I just recently discovered that you can watch CNN live, for free, on YouTube. Go to YouTube and navigate to Live Channels, News Channels, and you'll find some great content there.
by mac808
Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 8882

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

The 3% group believe the future will be MUCH WORST than the depression, WWI & WWII, the 60's & 70's. If that's the case most of America will be in deep, deep trouble. I believe 4% will work, but I'm also smart enough to cut back and adjust my spending if we run into bad returns fews years i...
by mac808
Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 8882

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

I do think 3% is the new 4%. 4% came from the strongest performing country (the US) in one of the strongest performing periods of time (at least two major generational cycles of industrialization). Note that if returns are indeed lower for the next couple decades then we have a massive state, munici...
by mac808
Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Am I spending too much on vacation/leisure?
Replies: 16
Views: 1878

Re: Am I spending too much on vacation/leisure?

Check out reddit.com/r/churning

At your age you may have the good credit and stamina required to churn through a bunch of travel related credit cards. You can get a few thousand dollars worth of free flights and hotels pretty easily if you spend 40-50 hours learning the ropes.
by mac808
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another can we retire...
Replies: 51
Views: 5683

Re: Another can we retire...

One of the reasons I don’t want to handle the finances myself is that I get overly anxious with it, it’s nice to have a FA that your trust but there is certainly a large price tag with it. Our FA is also a family friend so I really feel obligated to stay — even without that aspect to ME its worth t...
by mac808
Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another can we retire...
Replies: 51
Views: 5683

Re: Another can we retire...

It is a distinct possibility that a person feeling comfortable with a high fee AUM advisor also feels comfortable with lots of other costly mistakes in investing. If it were a known guarantee that paying the AUM would prevent those many other mistakes that would be one thing, but I fear the evidenc...
by mac808
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing for newlyweds
Replies: 18
Views: 1700

Re: Housing for newlyweds

Rent. You're likely to get opportunities to move to increase your income, which renting gives you the flexibility to pursue. If you end up staying where you are, property prices will likely not appreciate much in Central Arkansas so you aren't risking missing the bottom of the market. Don't get suck...
by mac808
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 193
Views: 16832

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

Might be a moot point because my wife is a lot younger than I am (17 years) and unless something unexpected happens she should outlive me by quite a few years, in which case she legally gets it all any way and will be the one to divide it up. This is a bad idea. How are your other kids going to fee...
by mac808
Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirees, at what age did you "retire"? Is it working out?
Replies: 63
Views: 9642

Re: Early retirees, at what age did you "retire"? Is it working out?

I was in tech and then retired in my mid 30s. I lasted less than a year before I got bored and went back to work on a part time basis. A job with autonomy, flexibility, and no direct reports is better than retirement.
by mac808
Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early retiree: 3% SWR or 4% SWR for planning purposes?
Replies: 61
Views: 5148

Re: Early retiree: 3% SWR or 4% SWR for planning purposes?

I early retired from the tech field a little younger than you two. I used a 3% SWR. Looking at pre-ww2 and global data, I was just not comfortable with 4% and figured it was better to err on the conservative side. I have since gone back to work part time for non financial reasons (easier to do in te...
by mac808
Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in E sports
Replies: 7
Views: 647

Re: Investing in E sports

Almost all esports companies are still private startups. I have invested in a couple as an angel investor. Twitch was the largest and was acquired by Amazon for around a billion dollars. I don't particularly play video games myself but based on the engagement and growth #s I've seen I think esports ...
by mac808
Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving money as a legacy after death
Replies: 15
Views: 1109

Re: Leaving money as a legacy after death

I've worked with a lot of charities and many of them are scams. Even some of the best run are really just lifestyle businesses for the managers who take over. I encourage folks to find the decent people in their lives and help them out directly.
by mac808
Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo Finance redesign
Replies: 42
Views: 4144

Yahoo Finance redesign

I've been a finance.yahoo.com user for more than a decade but this new redesign they launched has totally screwed the site up for me. I'm looking for a new finance site to make my home page. Any wisdom from the crowd on what folks like using?
by mac808
Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Kid
Replies: 63
Views: 5964

Re: Trust Fund Kid

He could be a thoughtful kid productively using this windfall to pause the treadmill and search for his true passion in life. But I'm assuming that based on what you know you fear the opposite. The devil is in the details. Help him understand that a 23 year old's SWR is likely around 3% (ignoring tr...
by mac808
Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very tough career choice (ego, startup, San Francisco Bay Area)
Replies: 52
Views: 5591

Re: Very tough career choice (ego, startup, San Francisco Bay Area)

Read all the great professional career advice people posted because this seems like more of a career decision than a purely financial transaction decision. That said, presumably the company has risen in value between when you were granted stock and today. If so, then if you do end up deciding to lea...
by mac808
Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you prepared for a high-inflation environment?
Replies: 12
Views: 1344

Re: Are you prepared for a high-inflation environment?

As Valuethinker said there are profound deflationary forces at work due to demographics and technology. Think about the move to ride sharing (Uber) and the next move to autonomous vehicles. Ride sharing has decreased the need for urban residents to own a car. Autonomous vehicles will decrease the co...
by mac808
Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Upgrade (Bay Area)
Replies: 19
Views: 1767

Re: Home Upgrade (Bay Area)

This doesn't account for the interest being tax deductible (first $1,100,000). At least one of the major political parties is pushing to limit itemized deductions to the 28% rate (in place of current marginal rate) and home interest specifically to a cap of interest on a $500k loan balance at that ...
by mac808
Fri Jun 17, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% Market Drops
Replies: 67
Views: 6596

Re: 50% Market Drops

Keep in mind that ''it's all relative'' - if/when the market drops 50%, a lot of things you might want to buy become a lot cheaper. Housing, cars, furniture, art, travel, activities and so on. Although I much prefer my 2016 portfolio balance I do miss 2010 sometimes because so many interesting asset...
by mac808
Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?
Replies: 11
Views: 1262

Re: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?

You could play the options market but I haven't found any European indices with great liquidity so you'll get eaten by fees at small volume. The simplest binary bet is the one you mention in your own post which is to visit the bookies. If you can't get to London then I'll take the other side of that...
by mac808
Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point do we market time?
Replies: 87
Views: 6208

Re: At what point do we market time?

Is there a point where it would simply make sense to time the market? For example, if US stocks are trading at a PE of 150 (and have been at a high PE of 150+ for over a year, slowly declining) and bonds are yielding 8%, with inflation at 3%, would it not make absolute sense to sell the stocks and ...
by mac808
Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Goldilocks Theory of Being Rich
Replies: 31
Views: 4181

Re: The Goldilocks Theory of Being Rich

Like Ben I knew people well who had nothing and then went on to become successful near billionaire tech founders. In my experience they were actually much happier people before the money and the fame. I would never have believed it if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes.
by mac808
Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Negative interest rates: What they are and what they mean."
Replies: 10
Views: 1714

Re: "Negative interest rates: What they are and what they mean."

They are a precursor to sovereign debt monetization. There's something historical and significant afoot. Watch what happens in Japan over the next couple years as their central bank buys up all their bonds from private investors.
by mac808
Fri May 27, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does the $5.45M exemption from estate taxes change your estate planning
Replies: 36
Views: 3399

Re: Does the $5.45M exemption from estate taxes change your estate planning

As bsteiner alluded to I think there's a better-than-even chance that the $5.45m exemption will be lowered, and the tax % raised, in the next decade (imo, regardless of who is in charge). I operate under the assumption that we'll end up with ~ 50% tax above $3m. This has prompted me to encourage som...
by mac808
Wed May 25, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling VTI Covered Calls
Replies: 30
Views: 2077

Re: Selling VTI Covered Calls

I look at deep ITM covered calls as somewhat equivalent to fresh powder sitting on the sidelines waiting for a buy limit order to execute as the market falls. If you don't mind owning and holding the stock for the long term, then it makes sense to me. But then again most of the people I know who hav...
by mac808
Wed May 25, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Bull Seems to be Getting Pretty Long In the Tooth
Replies: 76
Views: 7455

Re: This Bull Seems to be Getting Pretty Long In the Tooth

Interesting article from this am:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/siegel-we ... 06040.html

Who knows what will happen, but a lot in there rings true for me.
by mac808
Tue May 24, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for a soon-to-be MLB draftee
Replies: 48
Views: 6136

Re: Advice for a soon-to-be MLB draftee

I'm not very athletic but I lived through a similar experience with a few friends when our tech startup was acquired for a nice chunk of change (low 7 figures each). The single most important piece of advice I'd give him is to forget the money exists for 10 years and then start withdrawing 4% (or ch...
by mac808
Mon May 23, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 62 later this year... social security?
Replies: 28
Views: 2329

Re: 62 later this year... social security?

How's your health and family longevity? Do you care about leaving an estate for anyone?
by mac808
Fri May 20, 2016 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pride in no inheritance to kids?
Replies: 233
Views: 2024

Re: Pride in no inheritance to kids?

I attended a small private high school with under 100 kids in the class. The families of this school were very wealthy. ~10 of my classmates were children of Forbes billionaires and the majority were either from generational wealth or entrepreneurial parents who had made well into 8 figures of wealt...

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