Search found 8592 matches

by letsgobobby
Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 15
Views: 1726

Re: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

I don't believe we are in a bull market. I don't really believe we are in a bear market. I am agnostic on the issue because those kinds of things are easier to see in retrospect. What is a secular bull market? I think it means a long period of time in which stocks rise, not only because earnings ris...
by letsgobobby
Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you invest your DAF? [Donor Advised Fund]
Replies: 15
Views: 852

Re: How do you invest your DAF? [Donor Advised Fund]

40% international stocks
30% domestic stocks
30% us bonds

Fidelity
by letsgobobby
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disappointed in International Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1120

Re: Disappointed in International Funds

I'm disappointed with the performance of my two international funds that I purchased back in 2012. Annual growth in 4 years has been a tepid 2%, which is much less than what I would have done if they were in the S&P 500. I purchased this on the advice of the Vanguard Advisory Services. Do you t...
by letsgobobby
Fri Feb 05, 2016 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maxing out then quickly paying off credit cards?
Replies: 18
Views: 1102

Re: Maxing out then quickly paying off credit cards?

are you worried about your credit in the near term?

You're talking about $400 for no work at all.

There's no point in having good credit if you never use it.
by letsgobobby
Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Charities for Bogleheads?
Replies: 23
Views: 1103

Re: Charities for Bogleheads?

Who cares about everything you read? You only need to know about your one charity. You sound more qualified than most to dig into the weeds and find out what's going on. Do it.
by letsgobobby
Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicken rub
Replies: 26
Views: 1478

Re: Chicken rub

try this
3 TB of olive oil
2 tsp salt
1 tsp pepper
2 TB of lime juice
1 TB smoked paprika

but I do just wing it
by letsgobobby
Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicken rub
Replies: 26
Views: 1478

Re: Chicken rub

olive oil
salt
pepper
lime juice
smoked paprika

it is awesome
by letsgobobby
Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sibling's destination wedding?
Replies: 87
Views: 4160

Re: Sibling's destination wedding?

There's a lot going on here. As others have pointed out, modern American families are often very far-flung and no one destination is obvious. In our case we had first degree relatives and very close friends in Michigan, Utah, Texas, California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, DC, New York, and North Car...
by letsgobobby
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of home addition? Should I do it?
Replies: 44
Views: 2897

Re: Cost of home addition? Should I do it?

Context matters a lot. In some very high priced areas, tearing down is the norm and additions aren't really worth the hassle. In our area, which is a very tight market but not very high priced, additions make a lot of sense. Tear downs are not cost effective because housing isn't that expensive, but...
by letsgobobby
Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global debt, global growth, and expected returns
Replies: 13
Views: 1184

Global debt, global growth, and expected returns

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/04/business/dealbook/toxic-loans-in-china-weigh-on-global-growth.html?_r=0 I have wondered about this a long time. If household debt is a drag on a household's ability to save (and invest), aren't very high levels of global debt likely to impact global savings, investm...
by letsgobobby
Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 35727

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

worse than that, he has not visited the forum since January 14. So I guess we will never get to hear how incredibly awesome his timing system is. Instead, we will have to live with the knowledge that he lost 25% in 4.5 months and just assume that eventually he will recoup all those losses and then s...
by letsgobobby
Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie, stuck in life insurance policy.
Replies: 18
Views: 1303

Re: Newbie, stuck in life insurance policy.

surrender value = $0 confirms that you are not getting an 8% return. you got a -100% return. I'm sorry to be another bearer of bad news, but you really should cease all payments to this policy; let it lapse; and vow never to use life insurance as an investment vehicle instead. Immediately buy any/al...
by letsgobobby
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

I still don't hear an option for viewing local sports televised on local cable. It sounds like ESPN might be available elsewhere, legally or not, but there are many other cable sports channels that broadcast sports. We are not the hugest sports fans in the world, but this year we did buy season tick...
by letsgobobby
Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anybody budget for daycare like it is college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3242

Re: Anybody budget for daycare like it is college?

I don't have kids Based on your first post: Has it always been this way for two working parents? Somehow my parents pieced together other ways for my sister and I to be taken care of before school age, and after school, etc. (And it wasn't grandma). There is no way they could have afforded a second...
by letsgobobby
Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anybody budget for daycare like it is college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3242

Re: Anybody budget for daycare like it is college?

Has it always been this way for two working parents? Somehow my parents pieced together other ways for my sister and I to be taken care of before school age, and after school, etc. (And it wasn't grandma). There is no way they could have afforded a second mortgage payment each month. Some of us wit...
by letsgobobby
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of home addition? Should I do it?
Replies: 44
Views: 2897

Re: Cost of home addition? Should I do it?

In our remodel, which sounds a lot like davebo 's: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=174514&hilit=house we were recently told that 90% of the addition will be completed without disrupting our current living space at all. This is because they will build the additional wing...
by letsgobobby
Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 35727

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

At the end of December he wrote that the price level had stayed just above the moving average, so he stayed long. That is why he lost another ~5% or so in January, but likely should go short in February.

Of his 25% loss in 4.5 months, he has made back about 2% today.
by letsgobobby
Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of home addition? Should I do it?
Replies: 44
Views: 2897

Re: Cost of home addition? Should I do it?

It is not purely a consumption item, adding square footage and a true master suite will definitely have some positive return in almost any market. Maybe 50% or more. If you're going to live there a long while I would absolutely do it, especially if it makes your wife happy. Cost, will vary widely bu...
by letsgobobby
Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physician buying an 850k vs 1.25m house
Replies: 54
Views: 5054

Re: Physician buying an 850k vs 1.25m house

How much time have you previously spent in this dream location?
by letsgobobby
Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 35727

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

Given the big declines this month, it seems likely the OP has now gone 100% short on 2/1. The S&P500 fell about 5% in January and he had said he was was very close to the threshold. So that's another -5% to add to his returns. I'm not keeping tabs on a total return but it's around -25% in 4.5 mo...
by letsgobobby
Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yeah, I Timed...
Replies: 26
Views: 4002

Re: Yeah, I Timed...

What does this gain you? Say you have a $2 million portfolio. You gamble by moving $25k into stocks that you shouldn't have, get lucky and pick the precise bottom, and then sell after a ten percent run up. That's an extra 1% you squeezed out of a portfolio, if everything goes precisely right and you...
by letsgobobby
Mon Feb 01, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving to vs. saving for charity
Replies: 39
Views: 1927

Re: Giving to vs. saving for charity

I was just wondering how Bogleheads approach planning gifts to charity? I try to give some but don't currently get any tax benefit. I have to admit this hurts my motivation to give. I'm thinking my current plan is about 2.5% of my income going directly to charity and then earmark 2.5% to save for f...
by letsgobobby
Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to Stay in San Francisco?
Replies: 37
Views: 2447

Re: Where to Stay in San Francisco?

We went to San Francisco in the spring last year. Due to the high price of lodging, we stayed at the Marriott Residence Inn in South San Francisco. Still not cheap, but had free parking, free breakfast, and the rooms are always good for families. With kids we are a little hesitant about VRBO in a bi...
by letsgobobby
Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stovetop Tea Kettle Recommendations?
Replies: 19
Views: 1193

Re: Stovetop Tea Kettle Recommendations?

I see these pretty regularly at garage sales (which I don't go to at all, but when I did a few times, there was always a kettle). We bought one 15 years ago for $5. It has not rusted and most importantly the handle does not heat up when it is on the stove. I hate design flaws like that, they're inex...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unwinding day old terrible car deal for mother-in-law
Replies: 186
Views: 15633

Re: Unwinding day old terrible car deal for mother-in-law

In my opinion the only angle you have here is the falsified income. In all other respects this is just a bad deal - not fraud. Bad deals aren't, as a rule, llegal. That's why it's incumbent upon signatories to any contract to read and understand the entire contract before signing - not after. No evi...
by letsgobobby
Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is holding in cash? [For future investing]
Replies: 66
Views: 4053

Re: Who else is holding in cash?

I am about 56% in cash now (the bulk is in my liquid savings account) and waiting for a good buying opportunity. I'm 41 and plan to retire at 70 but as long as I can work I will. I know market timing is a bad idea but lets face it we are long overdue for a significant drop and I think it could happ...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

It's not so much what we need. It's what is available. There is no competition for high speed.
by letsgobobby
Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??
Replies: 179
Views: 9251

Re: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??

Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face.

Mike Tyson
by letsgobobby
Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

I think without any high speed internet competition, there is no real money saving to be done with any other option. High speed internet, stand alone, will cost us $100 per month, and it is required for my wife's job. So that's our starting point. For the extra $100, we get the rest, so it doesn't s...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

If you're happy, great! Being happy is awesome. You're happy, Time Warner is happy, the cable guy is happy. But for a lot of people $200 on passive entertainment is a HECK of a lot of money. For my part, I've never had cable TV in my life. $200 would get me 16 movies in a theater. I'm lucky if I ha...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jan 27, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

Purpose of thread, I suppose, was to see if there are indeed other options for sports. There are ways to watch the rest through various devices and services, though it sounds complicated. We only have one TV so some of the problems described with multiple devices would not be a barrier. Have thought...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

I signed up for Amazon Prime once, but when I looked at the movies that were actually available I was very disappointed and cancelled. We've had Netflix from time to time but with all the upgraded streaming that Comcast has added, there's no need now. Two weeks ago I was able to go the airport, use ...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

From some of the replies, I can see one of the advantages of cable is the simplicity. Slingbox, roku, apple tv, Hulu, Netflix, amazon... I'm sure I could figure it all out eventually but cable isn't giving me a reason to do so. However without live sports, and if we had the ability to get high speed...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

Re: perfectly happy with cable

One problem is that if we were to cut the cable cord, our internet price alone would be $100. For us high speed internet is indispensable. That means we are really paying $100 for home security, the DVR, cable, on demand services, and the land line (which we use a lot, to avoid giving businesses our...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: perfectly happy with cable
Replies: 123
Views: 6039

perfectly happy with cable

Are we the only household in America happy with cable? We pay $200 per month, which isn't small change, but for that we get: - lightning fast internet, always reliable - about a gazillion TV channels, some of which we actually watch; - ESPN and local cable sports (for us that is the Portland Timbers...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jan 26, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Properly Assessing Public Schools
Replies: 55
Views: 3051

Re: Properly Assessing Public Schools

The U.S. Education Department has data on schools: http://nces.ed.gov/globallocator/ You can look at individual schools and districts. Some states we lived in required districts to publish scores annually, and some states publish scores for schools. I only saw demographics and free lunch stats. Whe...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling to Vegas soon. Advice or Suggestions?
Replies: 24
Views: 1828

Re: Traveling to Vegas soon. Advice or Suggestions?

My favorite tip for Vegas is to ALWAYS rent a car. While traffic can be hard, if you know your way around you'll miss the worst of it (use Koval, Paradise, and Maryland to get around), while parking is free and plentiful, you can avoid lines for taxis, and you can get out of town for a few hours (se...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you pay for exercise?
Replies: 207
Views: 10456

Re: Do you pay for exercise?

Of course PF relies on folks not using the gym, but that's the same as all other gyms. It is known that this is the industry's business model. What I'm asking is how PF is able to operate their gyms at 1/4 the price of their competitors. Maybe you're right, that even more than LA Fitness or 24 Hour ...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you pay for exercise?
Replies: 207
Views: 10456

Re: Do you pay for exercise?

I don't understand the PF business model. How are they able to undercut their competitors by 75-80%? They still have the same overhead, and as you say it's not like their places are dumpy. They're pretty nice. I realize all gyms rely on members who don't use the facilities, but what allows PF to do ...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought a bunch of stocks today
Replies: 42
Views: 4136

Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

DCA is typically used to describe the weekly or biweekly purchase of investments with money earned from a job. In that classic case there is no cash until it is earned, at which point it is invested.
by letsgobobby
Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you pay for exercise?
Replies: 207
Views: 10456

Re: Do you pay for exercise?

We pay $800 per year for 2 adults. I go often, she rarely does. I'm thinking of joining Snap for another $400 per year for 24 hour access. Also use my treadmill at home. It rains a lot where we live. We also ski and snowshoe and hike and walk outdoors, but some days indoors is the way to go. Our gym...
by letsgobobby
Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought a bunch of stocks today
Replies: 42
Views: 4136

Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Hi guys, Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself....
by letsgobobby
Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 121
Views: 7184

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

As this example shows, the level of uncertainty is huge, and thus at best one should shade allocation at most a bit higher or lower when valuations are low or high. But if one only shades a bit from their nominal allocation the benefits if any will be very modest. I agree with all you've written ex...
by letsgobobby
Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 121
Views: 7184

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

The Shiller model or any valuation model should never claim to be predictive, in the sense of a terminal value. At best they are predictive with respect to a range of likely returns, a probability prediction more or less (I'm not a mathematician or statistician so excuse the informal terminology). S...
by letsgobobby
Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 646
Views: 14425

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

I am in the top half of respondents and feel this is a moral victory. If we call it now, I will claim top 50th percentile. It is interesting that only a small handful - as few as 2-3% - of respondents guessed any meaningful decline the market. Positive bias is well entrenched. On the other hand, my ...
by letsgobobby
Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 100% stock thread!
Replies: 33
Views: 2806

Re: Another 100% stock thread!

Background/Question I'm 31 and don't expect to touch my investments for another 35 or 40 years. I've always held bonds in my portfolio. In the beginning I did so because you're "supposed to". I began doubting this wisdom a few years ago but continued to hold bonds in part because a home r...
by letsgobobby
Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 6715

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

I never made this mistake but came somewhat close, in that I considered investing in taxable rather than using 403b when I was in the 28-33% bracket, thinking taxes could never get lower and with my savings rate (over 50% at the time and for most of my life) I would be in a higher tax bracket at ret...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jan 24, 2016 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 6715

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

You are proving livesoft ' s point that some people are only earning money to pay taxes for other people's benefits. When your child gets to college age, either you still need more money for the future - aka retirement - or you don't. If you do, then you should have been putting more in your 401k to...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 6715

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

To summarize, you are not interested in maximizing wealth, but rather in having a larger non retirement account for the purported benefit of flexibility. You haven't said how much is in your taxable account, nor how much unused pretax space you leave every year. Regardless, it is very likely you are...

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