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by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads approach explained in one paragraph
Replies: 13
Views: 1265

Re: Bogleheads approach explained in one paragraph

I'm not doing your homework for you!
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do Realtors Find FSBOs?
Replies: 63
Views: 3824

Re: Do Realtors Find FSBOs?

Declutter the toys and kitchen items.

Zestimates can be very inaccurate, that said your asking price is 15% over the Zestimate. Is that what comparable homes halve sold for (15% over Zestimate)?
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying second home - how much $?
Replies: 6
Views: 401

Re: Buying second home - how much $?

Hello all. My wife and I recently had our first baby. We live in a 3 bedroom, 1 bath house in Austin in a very desirable neighborhood. We already know that the house will be too small in a couple of years. Fortunately I was able to take advantage of low mortgage rates and refinance with $125,000 ca...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: tactical question on 529 superfunding from two sources
Replies: 5
Views: 394

Re: tactical question on 529 superfunding from two sources

Is "superfund" now the generally accepted term for this? Like "backdoor Roth IRA" or "megabackdoor Roth IRA"?
by letsgobobby
Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 74
Views: 4608

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

First home (condo), HV:NW infinity, HV:HHI infinity. I had no net worth (home was paid for in cash by my parents who lent it to me, so maybe my net worth was negative), and no income. When I sold the home I paid my parents back and was permitted to keep any profit (around $5000 after expenses). Seco...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1718
Views: 403368

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

WildBill wrote:I am re-reading Manias, Panics and Crashes by Charles Kindleberger. For about the fifth time.
W B

one of my favorites, and one of the first finance books I owned.
by letsgobobby
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory only... when to stop 401k contribution
Replies: 37
Views: 3114

Re: Theory only... when to stop 401k contribution

I know its always best to max out your 401k, but at what point is your balance large enough that maxed contributions are insignificant?? Again... just for fun and discussion, what is the magic amount when gains totally overshadow contributions? Even if that were the case, you will often be better o...
by letsgobobby
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Beer
Replies: 677
Views: 109361

Re: Boglehead Beer

Was recently turned on to Deschutes....everything the make is fantastic. Fresh Squeezed, Pine Drops, Red Chair, Mirror Pond, XPA!!! My stand by for a while has been Sierra Nevada. Another company that can't make a bad beer. Just today in Deschutes' enormous restaurant and tasting room in Portland. ...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?
Replies: 50
Views: 3013

Re: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?

Assuming the guide is personable, enjoyable, engaged, shares his time and takes you safely through dangerous terrain, 10-15% is what I would do/have done. For longer trips on the higher side. For special services more. Less for grumpy, sullen, etc. Just did a half day horseback ride with my kid and ...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1718
Views: 403368

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Egan - visit from the goon squad - boring and self-indulgent with unlikable narcissistic characters to boot. Can't believe this won the Pulitzer. Saunders - tenth of December - short stories - credit for writing about a difficult subject (poverty and class and jealousy) with a searingly funny voice....
by letsgobobby
Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8777

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

I don't understand the analogy. If the two retired workers had a million coconuts, there'd be incentive for the remaining two workers to learn the two is sing skills and substantially increase their working hours - and possibly their productivity. Why must GDP fall?
by letsgobobby
Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another Too-Much-House Thread....
Replies: 72
Views: 6624

Re: Another Too-Much-House Thread....

You can afford it, but it's not a gimme. Why? Because you spend 75% of your large gross annually (save $100k out of $450k). So you have very high recurring expenses despite having a paid off house. Assume you sell your curent house and put $500k as a down payment. You would then have a $700k mortgag...
by letsgobobby
Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Scary thought. Running out of time to save for retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 6287

Re: Scary thought. Running out of time to save for retirement

This feels a bit like humble-bragging. I don't think you are really scared about your situation, I think you are proud of it. And you should be proud -- you were disciplined and wise from an early age. Although investing early is enormously helpful, there is no need to be defeatist if you happen to...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on my savings plan
Replies: 11
Views: 1183

Re: Thoughts on my savings plan

OP, 1) You are in 35% marginal tax bracket with 9.3% state income tax. Balanced fund is highly tax inefficient. If you treat your whole portfolio as ONE PIE and put all stocks into taxable account, it will make a significant different. 2) You have high cost balanced funds. With (1) and (2), how cou...
by letsgobobby
Sat Jul 16, 2016 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whether to put 20% or 10% down on house
Replies: 20
Views: 2314

Re: Whether to put 20% or 10% down on house

Currently going through the mortgage process using Wells Fargo. Can confirm a 10% down jumbo loan with no PMI exists and the interest rate is, in fact, cheaper than even a 20% down conventional loan. Their explanation when asked was that since they hold onto their jumbo mortgages they have more pri...
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whether to put 20% or 10% down on house
Replies: 20
Views: 2314

Re: Whether to put 20% or 10% down on house

My wife and I are looking to buy a house in the $600-800k range, and while we have the reserves to put down 20% and eliminate PMI, I've run into an interesting option for putting 10% down. While researching mortgage options, I've found that Wells Fargo offers jumbo loans on 10% down with no PMI, an...
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which sub-asset class in stocks would I move into bonds as I age?
Replies: 7
Views: 504

Re: Which sub-asset class in stocks would I move into bonds as I age?

I'm currently working on my investment policy statement regarding adjustments to my asset allocation as I grow older. My strategy is to hold four index funds. My current allocation is 70/30 stocks/bonds. I have three sub-asset classes within stocks and just one bond fund. Here is the breakdown: 40%...
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Raising a reader
Replies: 53
Views: 3177

Re: Raising a reader

We read nearly every night (not literally any more), a mix of them reading to us and vice versa. We have done this since they were in utero. Yes, we are that kind of parent, for better or worse. We do have thousands of books laying around. A legacy of the pre- e-reader days, and my parents who also ...
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of car do Bogleheads like to drive?
Replies: 123
Views: 8098

Re: What kind of car do Bogleheads like to drive?

pretty happy with the Prius. great mileage and reliable. I drove it six hours up to the mountains and back on just over 2/3 of a tank. Not a 'fun car' and not particularly quiet.
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?
Replies: 29
Views: 4293

Re: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?

"I am against market-timing and a big fan of Jack Bogle but [yada yada yada] will you please help me market time?" This is one of the most common first/early posts for a new Boglehead. Either you believe the philosophy, or you don't, in which case you believe that you can predict the futur...
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need help with infant fare issue with airline
Replies: 18
Views: 1440

Re: Need help with infant fare issue with airline

The reason is because many people try to cheat the system and since children don't need identification (for domestic flights) airlines are very much relying on the honor system. Small 2 or 3 year old in the lap, sure, since there's no way an airline can prove the child is old enough to pay the fare....
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much in 529s and coverdell IRAs
Replies: 4
Views: 484

Re: How much in 529s and coverdell IRAs

Depends on your goals and your means.
by letsgobobby
Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need help with infant fare issue with airline
Replies: 18
Views: 1440

Re: Need help with infant fare issue with airline

Did your child get his own seat on the return flight?
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First trip to Hawaii
Replies: 15
Views: 1220

Re: First trip to Hawaii

we like the Napili area - a little more rain, but quieter and still close to anything on the west side.
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD question: would you take 3% guaranteed for 7 years?
Replies: 45
Views: 4363

Re: CD question: would you take 3% guaranteed for 7 years?

I wouldn't conclude the low liquidity is a dealbreaker. I can certainly identify 25-50% of my fixed income for which I have no need for liquidity for the next 7 years. I think of my EE bonds as having zero liquidity until 20 years, and I have plenty of those. I just wouldn't drop all my eggs in this...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: August vacation to Glacier NP
Replies: 21
Views: 2088

Re: August vacation to Glacier NP

I have been to Glacier 3 times around Labor Day or late August. All 3 times I encountered snow and sleet in the mountains. Twice Logan Pass was closed due to the weather. I think in that area you always have to be prepared for snow. We've seen up to a dozen bears on the trails around Many Glacier on...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2564

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

It's a 50 year bet and I would take it. That's what makes markets. In my opinion, it's irrational. You may well be making the right bet. My point is that it may not be totally irrational when exchange rates are taken into account. 45 years ago, the swiss franc was worth $.25. Today, it's worth a li...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hiking questions
Replies: 154
Views: 7794

Re: Hiking questions

Don't overthink it. You're walking through the woods, hopefully up a hill. Wear comfortable shoes. This is me. I belong to 3 hiking groups and hike here in CO. mountains 3-4 times a week. All day hikes from 4-12 miles. I wear trail running shoes and carry water. No poles, pack, deet, whatever to sl...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30, because of major depression no income or apartment with 200k in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1242

Re: 30, because of major depression no income or apartment with 200k in retirement

Try Celexa, I take it for my anxiety and it's been a real difference maker for me. You have to let it get in your system, it takes two weeks to take effect. Good luck! Been on over ten meds, then went to see a university doctor who told me the chances of any further medication working at this point...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2564

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

I would take a low cost bet that the 50 year real return on the 50 year swiss bond, at a negative starting yield, would be considerably negative. That's the kind of short I want. Maybe, maybe not,from the perspective of a European investor living in a Euro country. Lots of people are willing to bet...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2564

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

Switzerland was negative to 50 years earlier this week. :oops: Talk about irrational. Think again Deflation= positive real return Currency appreciation = positive return Uncertainty 're credit risk major financial instns = flight to safety Further stagnation = lower bond yields and thus positive re...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hiking questions
Replies: 154
Views: 7794

Re: Hiking questions

Don't overthink it. You're walking through the woods, hopefully up a hill. Wear comfortable shoes. This is me. I belong to 3 hiking groups and hike here in CO. mountains 3-4 times a week. All day hikes from 4-12 miles. I wear trail running shoes and carry water. No poles, pack, deet, whatever to sl...
by letsgobobby
Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2564

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

... Talk about irrational. So short 'em. I don't mean that literally aimed at you personally, of course, but if it were irrational, and maybe it is, and the market returned to rationality somebody would, and perhaps will, get rich off today's derivatives by betting the other way. I'm not sure my in...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2564

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

Switzerland was negative to 50 years earlier this week.

:oops:

Talk about irrational.
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pull out of market?
Replies: 56
Views: 5274

Re: Pull out of market?

I'm (hopefully) about 3-5 years away from retiring. I'm feeling like we've finally made some headway after the 2008/2009 trough, and I don't want to get into that situation again. Sounds like a good time to change your Asset Allocation (AA) permanently to a more conservative mix of stocks/bonds. No...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are we doing?
Replies: 21
Views: 2038

Re: How are we doing?

Anyone who saves 40% of their annual spending each year is going to be in excellent shape. Every 2.5 years that goes by you'll have funded another year of retirement, even without any real market growth. After 25 years you'll have 10 years of retirement paid for; that gets you from 54 to 64 and voil...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD question: would you take 3% guaranteed for 7 years?
Replies: 45
Views: 4363

Re: CD question: would you take 3% guaranteed for 7 years?

Yes this seems intriguing (as does the Andrews rate). Think about the alternatives: TBM yields 1.80%; 10 year treasury yields 1.5%; money markets yield 1%; VWITX yields 1.23% tax free. In a very low rate world, 3% FDIC insured is nothing to sneeze at. I've happily been buying EE bonds for 3 years no...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are we doing?
Replies: 21
Views: 2038

Re: How are we doing?

My biggest concern is that you are relying on a pension to provide $1,000,000 which only has $43,000 in it today. It's easier to start with what you have, add what you really add, and see where you land. You have: $100k his 401k $43k cash balance pension $17k her solo 401k So $160k. At a rate of 4% ...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are we doing?
Replies: 21
Views: 2038

Re: How are we doing?

Easier to do everything in today's dollars so as to estimate actual purchasing power. So the $1,000,000 may be more like $400,000 in today's dollars. SS $1700, your spouse another $800. These are totally wild guesses butane ballpark. The $400,000 will kick off $1000 per month in apending. That's $35...
by letsgobobby
Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD question: would you take 3% guaranteed for 7 years?
Replies: 45
Views: 4363

Re: CD question: would you take 3% guaranteed for 7 years?

He's not going to tell us where this is, is he?
by letsgobobby
Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1718
Views: 403368

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Under the Stars: How America Fell in Love With Camping , by Dan White, 2016. Halfway through it and so far it's been informative and enjoyable. I just finished the chapter about when John Muir camped with Teddy Roosevelt under a sequoia. I learned about that camping trip from my six year old's book...
by letsgobobby
Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: August vacation to Glacier NP
Replies: 21
Views: 2088

Re: August vacation to Glacier NP

Wherever you hike, keep your child very close by. Bear safety in Glacier is for real, not just for show. Because my children are not particularly good listeners, we have refrained from taking them to grizzly country yet.
by letsgobobby
Mon Jul 11, 2016 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1718
Views: 403368

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I am 20 years late to the party but just finishing up Snow Falling on Cedars. It's one of the most sensuous and evocative books I've read. I think it's phenomenal.
by letsgobobby
Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9037

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

BH are disproportionately well off but in polls of BHs only half are millionaires, and there is reason to suspect a very strong reporting bias. ie, tens of thousands of BH forum readers and only 200 or so replies to polls (when we had them), of whom half had a million dollar net worth or more (give ...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jul 10, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9037

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

This is nonsense. The vast majority of Americans will not have 25x in total assets, and even most Bogleheads will not have 25x in safe assets. Are you sure? Would the calculation be something like this? Expenses - Social Security - Pension = Shortfall Shortfall x 25 = Safe Assets Or $90,000 - $35,0...
by letsgobobby
Sun Jul 10, 2016 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: wait for the drop?
Replies: 75
Views: 6522

Re: wait for the drop?

Namrac, I think you should fully invest to your desired AA immediately. I also recommend an AA that is conservative, given your anxiety. Something like 60% stocks, 40% safe - which may include cash, safe bonds, stable value fund. Ironically I am also 60/40 and sleep super well at night. I never wait...
by letsgobobby
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 103
Views: 5418

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Married, 42. Our target is 60/40 with somewhat of a small and value tilt but mostly just cap weighted averages. 60% international stocks, 40% domestic stocks. bonds: 20% I and EE, 40% stable value, 40% total bond market We have a high ability to take risk (high risk tolerance) but no need and no des...
by letsgobobby
Sat Jul 09, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: wait for the drop?
Replies: 75
Views: 6522

Re: wait for the drop?

Yours is one of the most common first Boglehead posts.

"I do not believe in market timing... I believe in buy and hold... but [blah blah blah] please tell me if I should market time right now."

The answer is no.
by letsgobobby
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home inspection items for repair
Replies: 32
Views: 1797

Re: Home inspection items for repair

And compared to a longtime resident homeowner who has taken pride in his home, well, there is no comparison . I rarely use the cheapest service, I use the best quality. I frequently upgrade materials. Everything is done exactly to code or greater. I get every permit. Longevity of the materials and ...
by letsgobobby
Sat Jul 09, 2016 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home inspection items for repair
Replies: 32
Views: 1797

Re: Home inspection items for repair

With initial build there's reputation at stake. For a house that has been lived in for a while and not remodeled, the people that were there probably cared about quality. A flipper is usually just looking to fool the eyes of the next buyer at the lowest possible cost (and the eyes are easily fooled...

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