Search found 2875 matches

by lazyday
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years
Replies: 66
Views: 5433

Re: IBonds: My worst bond investment over the last 5 years

As a rough check, I looked up the CPI-U for 6/30/12 and 7/1/17: 229.1 and 244.8. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS 229.1 ** 1.0122 = 244.8, so if your fixed interest rate is 0, I'm thinking you should expect something like a 1.2% yearly return unless there were big jumps in inflation near ...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IVLU for international value exposure [iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value]
Replies: 11
Views: 994

Re: IVLU for international value exposure

For those who want a multifactor fund, also check out ISCF, iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor Intl Small-Cap. Small, value, momentum, quality. Also has .3% ER. Very thin trading and few shares outstanding, so might only be appropriate if you hold foreign stocks in an IRA. I haven't invested yet myself, ...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 205
Views: 34508

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

My decision was 0% International. Two years later, I am wondering 'why I am so smart'? I look and see its up..now I'm thinking I would be smart to get international in general but not now.... Over the last 12 months (or 12-1 months), US and ExUS are about equal. Over the last 6, ExUS is a little ah...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need a high risk option for $250
Replies: 19
Views: 2383

Re: Need a high risk option for $250

Some might say the real risk is that you get lucky, make a good return, and think you have real talent.

Anyway, if you can't meet the minimum elsewhere, maybe you have enough for some DRIP or direct stock purchase plans? Would need some patience compared to online trading.
by lazyday
Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?
Replies: 22
Views: 1583

Re: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?

I understand that long term the liklihood is that we will be net positive. However, if I am just getting into the market now with a significant amount of my savings and the market has a correction, which will come at some point, I will be in a much worse position then if I waited. Why not wait unti...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beam 2-4% APY
Replies: 8
Views: 845

Re: Beam 2-4% APY

Rob5TCP wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:25 am
I used a disposable email address (one of many I have) -- so if it's a scam to collect emails the value is minimal.
I'll wait to hear how they make money, but if you don't have to give personal info then it sounds like there's almost no risk.
by lazyday
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beam 2-4% APY
Replies: 8
Views: 845

Re: Beam 2-4% APY

http://www.getrichquickish.net/2017/07/beam-high-interest-rate-bank-account.html Depending on the popularity of our wait list from now until our expected beta release starting from Oct 31, the account maximum will likely be somewhere between $50,000 – $150,000. Curious what their game is. I'm not s...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 55
Views: 4824

Re: Changes coming for 3 Vanguard Bond Index funds

Not much impact, they are mostly invested in Treasuries already.

Should have slightly lower risk and return, and according to some people will mix with equities better.

discussed here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=225281
by lazyday
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

That would be because you didn't select the option 'Include Quality Factor (QMJ)'... :wink: oops. Thank you. Large quality QUAL, just using ETF data instead of backtesting prior to availability, shows lower QMJ (quality) than any of three smallcap funds I happened to try it against. (one of the thr...
by lazyday
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6228

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

Maybe people in the late 1990's weren't so crazy after all. Nah, they were crazy. A bubble can be based on a real change in the economy, sure. But imagine the portfolio today of someone who bought dotcom stocks at the peak of their popularity, and held to today without adding new money. EDIT: Curio...
by lazyday
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2367

Re: Going passive is an active decision

To me the really dangerous active decision is having 100% of equity in US.

Which is what most of the GMO article addresses.
by lazyday
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

siamond wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:19 am
lazyday wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:02 am
5 factor, right? I wan't able to select AQR 5 factor when I tried SCHD.
Yes, same thing here, so I settled for AQR 4 factors. Apparently a limitation of PV's factor analysis.
But you have 5 factors: market, size, value, momentum, quality. When I do an ARQ 4 factor run, I don't get quality.
by lazyday
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

I uploaded the data series for MSCI Momentum, Quality and Value indices. Thanks, nice to see these too. Personally, this leaves me shaking my head a little bit. My guess is that there are way too many definitions of value, quality, momentum and so on for such exposure math to be truly meaningful Ju...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which International Fund is Best
Replies: 8
Views: 803

Re: Which International Fund is Best

In some other topic, which I can't find now, someone said total international is not as good as the FTSE fund because you don't get the foreign tax credit with total internationl. Is this correct or not? Years ago there was a Vanguard international fund that was a "fund of funds". It had an issue o...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Ok, the PV author explained how to import monthly data series with my login Wow, that's great! Then we're back to the Vanguard finding that the Dividend Growth strategies (Aristocrats & Achievers) have more quality exposure than the Dividend High Yield approach. I would really expect that. Since th...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity total int. and us bond observation
Replies: 6
Views: 657

Re: Fidelity total int. and us bond observation

In 2008 for example, fidelity total bond trailed the index by 1.5% or so, which I think is a large amount for a bond fund. That is a huge difference. If noone here already knows why (and posts), I suppose you could get the relevant annual reports from that time and try to compare. Which might not b...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Surprised you haven't seen it, but glad to help!
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2463

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

A retiree should probably care about what might produce the highest SWR, if that were available. I'm imagining a 50%+ market drop, either for someone retired or who lost their job. Selling depressed stocks to live could quickly deplete assets. This might be prevented by either rebalancing from Treas...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2463

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

I think I care more about big drawdowns, so periods where from peak to bottom, equities lost more than say 33% real. Sure but scenarios like that are so rare that no meaningful conclusions can really be drawn. It is akin to "I flipped a coin 4 times and it came up heads 3 times, so heads is more li...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

I don't know if there's enough data for these results to be useful, but a regression analysis of SCHD shows a negative value load, moderate profitability, and high conservative-investment. R-sq is only 91.5% even with 5 factors. This seems to be the P/B (or high B/P minus low) version of value, whic...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity total int. and us bond observation
Replies: 6
Views: 657

Re: Fidelity total int. and us bond observation

Maybe Fidelity's always been a little behind Vanguard in areas like tracking error and managing trading costs. You'd have to see if it's gotten worse over time.

I trust Vanguard more than Fidelity, but many here think that their low cost indexes are just fine.
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2463

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

In the above I looked at all months when stocks went down. But maybe someone will say "but we only care about BIG stock drops, even though the OP didn't actually say that". For ST vs IT vs LT, I think I care more about big drawdowns, so periods where from peak to bottom, equities lost more than say...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5540

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

pascalwager wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:52 pm
(I believe DiCiurcio is an investment officer at Vanguard, not M*.)
Yes, thank you. Transcript link in the top post of this thread.
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11721

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Is Sharpe's RISMAT worth the read? As a tactical asset allocator, it might be helpful to learn a bit about the passive extreme. From the preface: At this point in the preface to an academic book, one expects a list of friends and colleagues of the author whose advice and comments were instrumental i...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

I'm curious where everyone would put the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index (SCHD If there's enough data, you might be able to use regression to find the factor exposure. Just from a look at the methodology, it seems like a multifactor fund with exposure to quality, value, and low vol. Here's some o...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed unloading bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 2061

Re: Fed unloading bonds?

Here's an article from April: Explaining the Federal Reserve’s Big Unwind https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-28/federal-reserve-ponders-how-to-do-the-big-unwind-quicktake-q-a And the Fed in June: Addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans https://www.federalreserve.gov/ne...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5071

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

To see the effect of muted returns more clearly, we are going to recreate the retirement visualizations from earlier, but with one key modification: we adjust historical stock and bond returns downward so that the long-term averages are in line with realistic future return expectations given curren...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any non-CD option to park downpayment for a year?
Replies: 9
Views: 945

Re: Any non-CD option to park downpayment for a year?

If you're in a high tax bracket, you could also consider a muni fund for the down payment, and maybe holding your 6 months expenses in an IRA. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Emergen ... gency_fund

Otherwise, I'd probably put it all in the no penalty from Ally.
by lazyday
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability
Replies: 14
Views: 1831

Re: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability

My wife and I both have Treasury Direct accounts, but it creeps us out, and we have an ongoing debate over whether we should get out, precisely because of such loss liability concerns and the obligation placed on the customer to create a paper trail (for the benefit of heirs or an executor, for exa...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5540

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

I don't know what you mean by "part of the portfolio" unless you're referring to corporate bonds, which you seemed to prefer to omit. Here's my original post: Kevin DiCiurcio: From a portfolio construction standpoint, choosing corporates or choosing non-market-cap-weighted exposure, you generally d...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

If the success of these strategies are indeed factor based, I would expect that success to continue. Some value indexes and funds choose a single measure of value, such as price to book or dividend yield. Others use several measures. IMO it's possible for value in general to become so popular that ...
by lazyday
Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability
Replies: 14
Views: 1831

Re: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability

For PAPER savings bonds:

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/re ... q.htm#lost
We can replace your savings bonds if we can establish that a person entitled to cash the bonds hasn't done so.
There may be a better source, found that one quickly.
by lazyday
Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ibond purchases on treasurydirect
Replies: 11
Views: 1310

Re: ibond purchases on treasurydirect

Thesaints wrote:
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:51 am
All savings bonds have identical guarantee, be those in paper or electronic format.
This seems to be incorrect. See viewtopic.php?f=10&t=225415
by lazyday
Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability
Replies: 14
Views: 1831

Re: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability

I read the account agreement, then talked to several customer support representatives and then was also connected to a lawyer. They all essentially said that the account agreement clearly states that TD is not responsible for any online hacking or fraud. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/terms.htm My ...
by lazyday
Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5540

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

I don't know why you should be annoyed, if you're really a passive investor. The market portfolio should be a first principle for passive investors, but maybe best suited for retirees. I'm not a passive investor, but do consider passive to be the default starting point. The argument I quoted seems ...
by lazyday
Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Best Leave an IRA to Charity"
Replies: 3
Views: 470

Re: "How to Best Leave an IRA to Charity"

"We can't deal with you because you are not our customer. Before we can give you any of the IRA money, you must first open an inherited IRA account with us. opening an inherited IRA is not necessarily easy for a charity Maybe I should move my traditional IRA accounts to one firm. If anyone knows ho...
by lazyday
Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5540

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

If you're a passive investor, you invest in the "total" market, which happens to include corporate bonds. If you're an active investor, then you can add and omit asset classes. It seems to me that we must actively choose which asset classes to invest in. Even Sharpe has omitted or underweighted com...
by lazyday
Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?
Replies: 25
Views: 4600

Re: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?

Crypto just mentioned in passing: "It looks bubble-ish when you see the kind of price action in bitcoin and now you're having new ICOs [initial coin offerings] at least one a week now and exploding when they come out - that's bubble action," he said. https://www.thestreet.com/story/14268189/1/the-co...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?
Replies: 32
Views: 2578

Re: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?

If by they you mean Morningstar Yes, that's what I meant. Vanguard gives some information about the Market Liquidity Fund on its website, not sure how much Morningstar could learn from it or from other sources. https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/investments/portfoliodet...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?
Replies: 32
Views: 2578

Re: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?

What would you guys suggest they do for a fund that has 10% non-rated bonds that were junk? Just ignore them and report that it is AAA fund because the other 90% are US Treasuries? If they know that it's junk, then they could put the proper overall rating in, such as BBB. If they don't know if it's...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

A minor clarification: In this thread, and in the Vanguard paper linked, "dividend growth" usually refers to either the concept of dividend growth, the Dividend Aristocrats (25 years), or Dividend Achievers (10 years) which the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation index fund follows. Only rarely does "div...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?
Replies: 32
Views: 2578

Re: Why is VANGUARD SHORT TERM TREASURY fund rated BBB credit quality?

grabiner wrote:The foreign bonds are from the US Agency for International Development, and are guaranteed by the US government.
Thanks, spotted one or two on the institutional page and wondered about it.

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGAp ... undId=0532
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?
Replies: 32
Views: 2578

Re: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?

Vanguard also uses their own style box methodology not Morningstar's. So what are you going to use to compare a Vg fund to a Schwab or Fidelity fund? I suggest that you use the same metric for all of them. And that would be Morningstar even if you think it has some things you don't like. If compari...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5540

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

Kevin DiCiurcio: From a portfolio construction standpoint, choosing corporates or choosing non-market-cap-weighted exposure, you generally do it for two reasons. First would be for diversification. When you add corporates to a Treasury bond portfolio, it actually results in a portfolio that exhibit...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?
Replies: 32
Views: 2578

Re: Why is VANGUARD SHORT TERM TREASURY fund rated BBB credit quality?

You can 't assign "blame" to either party. OK, that might be true. But if Morningstar shows BBB for this fund, then maybe I should be careful about using Morningstar reports to make decisions. Also note the footnote. Credit Quality is calculated only using the long position holdings of the portfoli...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Sure enough, we shouldn't jump to conclusions, every major crisis displayed a completely different pattern than its predecessors. I think there was an old S&P paper that might have looked at 1956 to something like 2000 or 2005, and found that high quality (their old version of quality, based on ear...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?
Replies: 32
Views: 2578

Re: Why is VANGUARD SHORT TERM TREASURY fund rated BBB credit quality?

Here, it looks like the problem is that Morningstar has treated as unrated some holdings which Vanguard knows are high-quality. If Vanguard's website (linked earlier) is correct, then wouldn't this be a failure of Morningstar's process? Distribution by credit quality* (% of fund) as of 06/30/2017 U...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Maybe the Aristocrats tend to do slightly worse than the market when it's booming (or just rising) and much better than the market when it's crashing.
by lazyday
Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7044

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

I didn't expect the S&P data, just trying to be explain what I meant.

It is impressive you got the MSCI data so far back. :)
by lazyday
Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3799
Views: 996699

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Earl Lemongrab wrote:Yes, we've plunged all the way back to July!
To find a bigger one day drop than today, you'd have to go back to May of 2017!