Search found 2981 matches

by lazyday
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 187
Views: 6747

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

considering Schwab and using their ETFs (SCHB/SCHF/SCHE/SCHZ) Over the years, people have mostly posted about good experiences with Schwab brokerage. Maybe tied with Fidelity for top satisfaction. The ETFs look pretty good to me, and I use their Fundamental Index etfs. But I haven't looked into wha...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab Index Fund - SCHK, better than SCHB?
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: New Schwab Index Fund - SCHK, better than SCHB?

I don't really see a reason for this fund to exist, but then again it is diversified and has a low cost so I don't see much downside either. It might save money by using the Schwab index instead of a DJ index. SCHX follows the "Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Total Stock Market IndexSM made up of approxim...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 187
Views: 6747

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

jhfenton wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:23 am
lazyday wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:52 am
There's several SPDR® Portfolio funds.
The SPDR® Portfolio site is currently "down for maintenance." :?
Up for me at the moment. Here's a list, though I didn't check if all are free at TDA: https://us.spdrs.com/en/strategies/spdr ... folio-etfs
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 187
Views: 6747

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

Wait, it looks like their replacement for VTI is SPTM. ER 0.03%, but thinly traded for now. There's several SPDR® Portfolio funds. SPDW SPDR® Portfolio World ex-US ETF has only 33 million shares outstanding. Lots of names on this list look like they are funds in need of shareholders. Maybe some goo...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 210
Views: 24448

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Initial Margin 3.33%
Maintenance Margin 1.67%
Leverage 1:30
https://www.plus500.com/Instruments/BTCUSD
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 187
Views: 6747

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

If you have at least 50k in assets, Merrill Edge with Preferred Rewards is a good option. They give 30 free equity trades/month with 50k With under 50k, Fidelity and Schwab have some decent ETFs that trade free. Otherwise ETF trades are $5. Trades are getting so cheap that even though I qualify for...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 88
Views: 11653

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

Today is not an ideal time to increase equity, and it's a better time to cut back than 5 years ago. Unless you have a crystal ball, you cannot make that claim. But I have a crystal ball into the past! For example, it would have been more ideal to increase equity April 2009 than to do it today. In b...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?
Replies: 3
Views: 606

Re: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?

Happy to help!

(and a bump in case someone has more to add)
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 31
Views: 3111

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Also note that I swapped a couple of e-mails with the author (Norbert Keimling), and he clarified that the data source is MSCI (which requires a paying subscription for such metrics), and that MSCI does the 'right' thing of computing earnings without any filtering (i.e. companies with negative earn...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term government index fund...
Replies: 2
Views: 232

Re: Long term government index fund...

I have thought about a small allocation to 28-30 year nominal Treasuries, or even Zeroes. 5% or at most 10% of the portfolio. Bond yields have been so low that I've not been willing to do it. Also my stock allocation has dropped down to 75%, so I'm not sure long Treasuries provide enough benefit. My...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?
Replies: 3
Views: 606

Re: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?

If the ST TIPS fund is an appropriate choice for you, then I think I Bonds are a good replacement. Provided you are familiar with their properties, such as no redemptions for the first year. The ST TIPS fund seems to have a slightly negative real yield according to the Vanguard page, though there ma...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3018

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

Then someone asks, what about the the very top heavy markets, like Denmark, South Korea or Spain, where the top one, two or three index constituents make up sixty or seventy percent of the index? Someone replied to me and said that market cap weighting is still the most diversified way to invest in...
by lazyday
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3018

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

I'd hookup with Apple, kill the S&P 600, and marry the 780 billion.
by lazyday
Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 219
Views: 39658

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I do wish someone calculated sector adjusted CAPE. Such as by reweighting industries for each region to the global weight.
by lazyday
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4146

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

I subscribe to Taleb's logic that just as in 2007 we thought of "the worst decline" as 25% and were unprepared for a 50% decline, today we think that 50% is the worst that could happen. We are oblivious to the Crisis of 2018 (or 2019, or something like that) featuring a 60% market decline. From the...
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 31
Views: 3111

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Updated top post with the latest data.

If anyone has another good source (AQR?) please let me know.
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jumbo 30mo CD 2.78%
Replies: 5
Views: 1790

Jumbo 30mo CD 2.78%

Not available for IRA according to a poster at depositaccounts.com and looks like a real pain to open and fund a jumbo.

https://www.gtefinancial.org/for-member ... te-special

https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/gte-cu/offers/
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4048

Re: Offensive Valuations

4. What is the alternative? 2% yielding bonds? Maybe. Bonds have a much shorter duration than stocks. If everything returns to normal, you will lose less money. Though I don't believe in big market timing moves away from equities while yield+growth is still significantly more than long term TIPS yi...
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4048

Re: Offensive Valuations

A key question is what mean reversion we will see in PE and profit margins. In the US, PE10 is high and on top of that, E is high because of high margins. We are paying a high multiple of high earnings. If both fully revert to the long term mean, the market will get slaughtered. And they could drop ...
by lazyday
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Predictions are unlikely to be accurate to more than plus or minus 5 percentage points (or worse), as I mentioned. In that context, there's no real difference between 1.5%, 2.5% or 3%. There's a lot of uncertainty but I think there's a large difference between 1.5% +- 5% and 2.5% +-5%. Research aff...
by lazyday
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years
Replies: 6
Views: 736

Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

tc101 wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:14 pm
Has there ever been a 20 year period with 0% real growth rate for a 50/50 stock bond portfolio?
Sure, but maybe not in the US yet. Give it time.
by lazyday
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6735

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Using data from AQR Capital Management, as of June 30, 2017, the CAPE 10 earnings yield for developed markets was
Is this data publicly available from AQR?
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest international mutual funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1106

Re: Oldest international mutual funds?

1774. https://www.ific.ca/en/articles/who-we-are-history-of-mutual-funds/ In 1774 a Dutch merchant Adriaan van Ketwich invited subscriptions from investors to form an investment trust (Negotiatie) under the name of Eendragt Maakt Magt (translated Unity Creates Strength). .... Risk spreading was ach...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

It seems to me, Bogle's been warning about low equity returns for at least a couple decades and probably before that. US stocks have generally been quite expensive since the late 90s. Since Jan 2000, real return has been only 3% , less than if you bought long term TIPS. And I expect the return from...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

If you want more pessimistic views, GMO forecasts -3% or more for US stocks over the coming 7 years, GMO assumes that today's high profit margins will partly revert towards the historical norm. This leads to even lower expected return. If you fully adjust earnings for high margins, then US stocks a...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest international mutual funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1106

Re: Oldest international mutual funds?

Templeton Growth is pretty old.
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Leif wrote:
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:28 am
This video is from a year ago. I'm sure his 10 year estimate has gone down based on current valuations.
Didn't spot that.

S&P is up maybe 18% since then, and bonds down 1%. Maybe we'll see a 0% real 10 year prediction soon.
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

BlueCable wrote:
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:59 am
Purchasing Bitcoin may pay off, but it is speculation, not investment. It is little different than buying gold or Swiss francs.
Or tulip bulbs.
by lazyday
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1528

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

Do my investment in a prolonged bull market become more risky at higher valuations? I don't know about risk vs the number of years the market has risen, but more expensive markets seem to be riskier. Intuitively it makes sense that paying a high price means you can lose more. There is some data sho...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 88
Views: 11653

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

I target a 50% allocation to equities. Can someone advise me by how much I should reduce that in view of current conditions? This type of thinking makes sense to me: Two years ago, we were 100% equities and always had been. Gradually over the last two years, we've moved to 80/20, partly a reflectio...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 88
Views: 11653

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

CyclingDuo wrote:
Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:57 am
Warren is 87, and Jack is 88. :D :mrgreen:
Wow, the google card (wikipedia) says Charlie Munger and Marty Whitman are both 93!

Howard Marks is just a kid at 71.
by lazyday
Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 88
Views: 11653

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

I like the suggestion by Howard Marks:
You invest, but with caution. You should certainly have less risk exposure today than you would have had five or seven years ago.
Combined with Bogle at the end of the video, "moderate adjustments".
by lazyday
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 88
Views: 11653

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

sambb wrote:
Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:05 am
I dont base my investment decisions on 90+ year old men's thoughts about the market.
I like to listen to the thoughts of people who have more experience than I, and then make my own decisions.
by lazyday
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 88
Views: 11653

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

When could we truely say they were overvalued though? When the YTM of treasuries is higher than stock earnings? Stocks are riskier, so we should demand a higher return than from bonds. There was an old post by Larry Swedroe, I think on some index funds forum, sometime around 1999-2001. As I recall,...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

would any rational individual go ahead and put money in a 401k and IRA knowing that there was a GOOD (not 100%) chance that real returns will be around 3% for the next 20 years When I was young I made big sacrifices to save and invest. With such low expected returns, I wouldn't have made the same d...
by lazyday
Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Seasonal wrote:
Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:56 am
A 50/50 portfolio would therefore return 2.5% real, which rounds to Bogle's 3%.
Bogle is predicting 3% nominal for the 50/50 portfolio, or 1.5% real.

I've queued up the video for you. Just listen to the next 10 seconds: https://youtu.be/KF1RodFhFwc?t=5m15s
by lazyday
Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

columbia wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:09 pm
This is a US only prediction?
Probably. I've never seen him make a prediction for non-US equity.
by lazyday
Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

It's 3% NOMINAL return, not real return, on a 50/50 portfolio assuming a 2.5% nominal return on bonds.
by lazyday
Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 138
Views: 13780

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

If I follow Bogle, a 50/50 portfolio of US equity and a mix of bonds including long bonds and corporates, is predicted to earn 1.5% real over 10 years, before expenses and investor timing mistakes. Doesn’t seem pessimistic to me. You can find another opinion here, using similar methods: https://inte...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 1866

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

Good thing I specified "globally-diversified" in the next sentence. Oh wait, you cut that part out. :oops: Sorry about that. My opinion is that extreme editing of quotes makes posts more readable, though even careful editing can change meaning a bit. Here I was too fast and careless and should have...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 1866

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

Throughout all of recorded human history, the rate of return on capital has been impressive. Not for the 1990 investor in Japanese equity, who paid too much. Similar for the 2000 investor in S&P 500, though it's too soon to be sure. Pray tell lazyday, why do you invest in stocks? For partial owners...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 1866

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

10 years ago, the S&P 500 was priced at 1557. 20 years ago, it was priced at 965. 30 years ago, it was priced at 320 (coincidentally, this was just before Black Monday and the eventual fall down to a price of 223 - the market was likely "overvalued" by all measures at 320). 40 years ago, it was pri...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 1866

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

For the average American, it may be good advice to save and invest as much as possible. For the average Boglehead, I'm not so sure. Many of us live well below our means and trade today's pleasures for tomorrow's financial security. Financial assets today are quite expensive and will likely not earn ...
by lazyday
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE As A Risk Management Tool
Replies: 7
Views: 702

Re: CAPE As A Risk Management Tool

Anyone seen P/B or CAPE that's adjusted for industry weighting? For example, by reweighting each country to global industry weighting. Especially for PB this would make sense to me. P/B really should vary a lot by industry. So for example if UK is more energy weighted and US more tech, the overall P...
by lazyday
Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks interview
Replies: 1
Views: 349

Howard Marks interview

Larry on Marks memos : His “memos” to Oaktree clients are the only ones of their kind I read (other than market analyses on which I’m asked to comment by our clients). I make it a point to read them because they are almost always filled with investment wisdom that every investor, whether active or ...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'
Replies: 50
Views: 2570

Re: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'

But, I believe it means that if you have reached your goal you can dial back the degree of risk in your portfolio. But then if you had enough money like the couple in Bernstein's story, what would you do to stop taking risks? Go to cash? Then you'd have inflation risk... :( Perhaps buy TIPs? If for...
by lazyday
Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Risk Endures
Replies: 2
Views: 352

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Risk Endures

For example, the worst-case daily drawdown for the S&P 500 during the Great Depression period of 1929-1932 was -88%.
Did the market fall 88% in one day?
by lazyday
Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 52
Views: 7289

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Anyone remember the discussions search option? It would search through forum results so you could type in a question and get results from people who actually had the same problem and possibly solved it...sigh. When the selection went away, you could still put something in the url to force a discuss...
by lazyday
Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 52
Views: 7289

Re: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]

Google Sheets still works for current or past stock data. You could keep a portfolio in a sheet and see the current price for each stock or fund.

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en
by lazyday
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting US equity return starting Jan 2000
Replies: 0
Views: 338

Predicting US equity return starting Jan 2000

If on 1/1/2000 you guessed that in 17.5 years CAPE would be 30, what return would you have predicted, using today’s methods? Can we learn anything by comparing that prediction to the actual return? My math is probably wrong, but I get about 0.5% real expected return. Yield + growth = 1.2 + 1.3 = 2.5...