Search found 3005 matches

by lazyday
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 27
Views: 2548

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

lack_ey wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:43 am
I think Vanguard sees EM bond yields and rates, inflation, etc. and assumes that EM equity valuations should be notably lower.
That would be an interesting analysis to see.

I see EM bond yields as low, but I suppose they are significantly higher than developed yields.
by lazyday
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 27
Views: 2548

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Considering interest rates and risk, Vanguard thinks US Equity overvaluation isn't extreme, EM overvaluation is worse than US, and Dev ExUS is fairly valued: The current [US] CAPE level corresponds to the 95th percentile of its historical range of values, approaching highs seen during the dot-com er...
by lazyday
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1850

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

https://s33.postimg.org/bksbqp54f/Global_Earnings_Chart.jpg Source: JPMorgan , as of 10/31/17. US profit margins and earnings are high, and a high PE means that the price for each dollar of earnings is also high. P = PE * E = high * high = very high. Unless earnings continue to surprise on the upsi...
by lazyday
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11264

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

In case anyone missed it, there's some discussion here on who EE bonds are good for, if anyone: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=217081
by lazyday
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1770

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

One of the more-cited models for the yield curve term structure these days, building on decades of work since the expectations hypothesis and other earlier ideas that are widely regarded as empirically untrue now, is from Adrian, Crump, and Moench (ACM) of the New York Fed. They have a post here wi...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 16
Views: 1768

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

I struggled with his argument in Pioneering Portfolio Management against timing interest rates. So found this interesting: if you looked at Yale’s bond portfolio 20 years ago, probably a market portfolio, market duration …. But as rate came down, we systematically reduced the duration of our bond po...
by lazyday
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too much risk for early retirement?
Replies: 21
Views: 3299

Re: Too much risk for early retirement?

The 457 account can be accessed without any penalty as soon as employment with the plan's sponsor ends. If the 403b account is with the current employer, upon separation distributions can be made without penalty at age 55. If the 403b account is with a previous employer, the age 59.5 applies. https...
by lazyday
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?
Replies: 9
Views: 1151

Re: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:23 pm
I would suggest you see if you can find the sector weight from a several years ago.
This is in Exhibit 1 in the paper.
by lazyday
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Rollover 1 per year rule
Replies: 14
Views: 1108

Re: IRA Rollover 1 per year rule

2. Direct rollover where a check from Custodian #1 is mailed to you but made out to Custodian #2 FBO WorkToLive. You forward the check to Custodian #2. This also does not have withholding and does not trigger the one-year-rule. Perhaps the IRS would consider this a Trustee-to-trustee transfer, sinc...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 32
Views: 3586

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

GMO's PE10: US 27.3 EAFE 20.7 As of 9/30/17 Source: GMO https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/faang-schmaang-don-t-blame-the-over-valuation-of-the-s-p-solely-on-information-technology.pdf?sfvrsn=2 See Exhibit 7. I've made a separate post to discu...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?
Replies: 9
Views: 1151

Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?

In Unconventional Success, David Swensen argued that we should expect similar returns from US and developed equities. GMO takes this a bit further with a simple valuations argument: broad equity markets that bear similar levels of risk should deliver similar levels of returns and thus be priced in l...
by lazyday
Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability
Replies: 37
Views: 4669

Re: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability

Today you can simply add a bank account, with identical registration of course, online. Thanks, wasn't aware of this change. TD required my answer to a security question, and sent me an email warning that a change had been made. I haven't tried the new linked bank yet so don't know if there's anyth...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014
Replies: 38
Views: 3540

Re: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014

In this paper I examine the frequency of large, sudden increases in market value ... A large sudden increase in price might signal a good time to buy, since short term momentum has historically provided a premium. The author's message: "Placing a large weight on avoiding a bubble, or misunderstandi...
by lazyday
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 484
Views: 45233

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

For those of us holding VTI, VT, and BND at TD, would it be better to just pay the new transaction fee, or find equivalents from the new no-fee list? What I would do myself: Count the number of trades per year, multiply by $7, divide by account size. If it's less than .0002 (two basis points) then ...
by lazyday
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 2898

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

Portfolio insurance had a major role in another sense, though: A narrative spread before Oct. 19 that it was dangerous, and fear of portfolio insurance may have been more important than the program trading itself. I sent out thousands of questionnaires to investors within four days of the 1987 cras...
by lazyday
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3980

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

JustinR wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:42 pm
It's behind a paywall so I can't read it, but from other replies it seems that the people who take the survey are mostly wrong?
After I closed the popup ad twice, I was able to read the article.
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3980

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

JustinR wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:47 pm
Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent.
AAII (thanks Arctic) is neutral to bullish now. Members don't seem to expect an imminent crash.

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?
Replies: 10
Views: 743

Re: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?

During the dotcom bubble it was quite obvious to many that it was a bubble. I think crypto today is the same. Look up the characteristics of a bubble according to thoughtful people like Shiller or Grantham/Chancellor. Crypto probably meets all of them right now. Don't know if it will pop tomorrow or...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 7988

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:51 am
Interesting that their structure would return economies of scale to the investors but then back that out if the AUM dropped due to a market decline.
I guess when the market falls, fixed costs don't fall with it. Vanguard ER % also rose a little when the market fell.
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 7988

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

I'm not a huge Vanguard fan either, in terms of particular special brand loyalty or envisioning great advantages from the structure. But there's something here. You may not get the lowest costs there in the long term. But I think with very high probability (higher than for the others) you're not go...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 7988

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

Some are skeptical that all of the players are for sure in this for the long run, keeping ERs low perpetually and keeping the funds open. In a taxable account, it might be worth thinking a couple or few decades down the line. People have been saying the same thing for the last twenty years about bu...
by lazyday
Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 49
Views: 4670

Re: anhybody buying bitcoin

Bitcoin is magical. The more expensive it gets, the more people like it.

Here's a family that sold their house and vehicles to buy more bitcoin: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/this-fa ... tcoin.html
by lazyday
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35334

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The Dutch family of five is in the process of selling pretty much everything they own — from their 2,500-square-foot house, to their shoes – and trading it in for the popular cryptocurrency. They have moved to a campsite in the Netherlands, where they're waiting for bitcoin to really take off. .......
by lazyday
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6786

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

At first I was thinking that Larry is sticking his neck out speaking against cutting back while equity is so expensive. But then I noticed there's not much you can quote him on here, if the market falls 85% over the next year and you angrily go back to this article.
by lazyday
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 484
Views: 45233

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

considering Schwab and using their ETFs (SCHB/SCHF/SCHE/SCHZ) Over the years, people have mostly posted about good experiences with Schwab brokerage. Maybe tied with Fidelity for top satisfaction. The ETFs look pretty good to me, and I use their Fundamental Index etfs. But I haven't looked into wha...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab Index Fund - SCHK, better than SCHB?
Replies: 6
Views: 878

Re: New Schwab Index Fund - SCHK, better than SCHB?

I don't really see a reason for this fund to exist, but then again it is diversified and has a low cost so I don't see much downside either. It might save money by using the Schwab index instead of a DJ index. SCHX follows the "Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Total Stock Market IndexSM made up of approxim...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 484
Views: 45233

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

jhfenton wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:23 am
lazyday wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:52 am
There's several SPDR® Portfolio funds.
The SPDR® Portfolio site is currently "down for maintenance." :?
Up for me at the moment. Here's a list, though I didn't check if all are free at TDA: https://us.spdrs.com/en/strategies/spdr ... folio-etfs
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 484
Views: 45233

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

Wait, it looks like their replacement for VTI is SPTM. ER 0.03%, but thinly traded for now. There's several SPDR® Portfolio funds. SPDW SPDR® Portfolio World ex-US ETF has only 33 million shares outstanding. Lots of names on this list look like they are funds in need of shareholders. Maybe some goo...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35334

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Initial Margin 3.33%
Maintenance Margin 1.67%
Leverage 1:30
https://www.plus500.com/Instruments/BTCUSD
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 484
Views: 45233

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

If you have at least 50k in assets, Merrill Edge with Preferred Rewards is a good option. They give 30 free equity trades/month with 50k With under 50k, Fidelity and Schwab have some decent ETFs that trade free. Otherwise ETF trades are $5. Trades are getting so cheap that even though I qualify for...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12718

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

Today is not an ideal time to increase equity, and it's a better time to cut back than 5 years ago. Unless you have a crystal ball, you cannot make that claim. But I have a crystal ball into the past! For example, it would have been more ideal to increase equity April 2009 than to do it today. In b...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?
Replies: 3
Views: 663

Re: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?

Happy to help!

(and a bump in case someone has more to add)
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 32
Views: 3586

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Also note that I swapped a couple of e-mails with the author (Norbert Keimling), and he clarified that the data source is MSCI (which requires a paying subscription for such metrics), and that MSCI does the 'right' thing of computing earnings without any filtering (i.e. companies with negative earn...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term government index fund...
Replies: 2
Views: 280

Re: Long term government index fund...

I have thought about a small allocation to 28-30 year nominal Treasuries, or even Zeroes. 5% or at most 10% of the portfolio. Bond yields have been so low that I've not been willing to do it. Also my stock allocation has dropped down to 75%, so I'm not sure long Treasuries provide enough benefit. My...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?
Replies: 3
Views: 663

Re: From Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities to I Bonds?

If the ST TIPS fund is an appropriate choice for you, then I think I Bonds are a good replacement. Provided you are familiar with their properties, such as no redemptions for the first year. The ST TIPS fund seems to have a slightly negative real yield according to the Vanguard page, though there ma...
by lazyday
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3694

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

Then someone asks, what about the the very top heavy markets, like Denmark, South Korea or Spain, where the top one, two or three index constituents make up sixty or seventy percent of the index? Someone replied to me and said that market cap weighting is still the most diversified way to invest in...
by lazyday
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3694

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

I'd hookup with Apple, kill the S&P 600, and marry the 780 billion.
by lazyday
Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 228
Views: 45976

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I do wish someone calculated sector adjusted CAPE. Such as by reweighting industries for each region to the global weight.
by lazyday
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4546

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

I subscribe to Taleb's logic that just as in 2007 we thought of "the worst decline" as 25% and were unprepared for a 50% decline, today we think that 50% is the worst that could happen. We are oblivious to the Crisis of 2018 (or 2019, or something like that) featuring a 60% market decline. From the...
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 32
Views: 3586

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Updated top post with the latest data.

If anyone has another good source (AQR?) please let me know.
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jumbo 30mo CD 2.78%
Replies: 5
Views: 1946

Jumbo 30mo CD 2.78%

Not available for IRA according to a poster at depositaccounts.com and looks like a real pain to open and fund a jumbo.

https://www.gtefinancial.org/for-member ... te-special

https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/gte-cu/offers/
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4423

Re: Offensive Valuations

4. What is the alternative? 2% yielding bonds? Maybe. Bonds have a much shorter duration than stocks. If everything returns to normal, you will lose less money. Though I don't believe in big market timing moves away from equities while yield+growth is still significantly more than long term TIPS yi...
by lazyday
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4423

Re: Offensive Valuations

A key question is what mean reversion we will see in PE and profit margins. In the US, PE10 is high and on top of that, E is high because of high margins. We are paying a high multiple of high earnings. If both fully revert to the long term mean, the market will get slaughtered. And they could drop ...
by lazyday
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 16425

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Predictions are unlikely to be accurate to more than plus or minus 5 percentage points (or worse), as I mentioned. In that context, there's no real difference between 1.5%, 2.5% or 3%. There's a lot of uncertainty but I think there's a large difference between 1.5% +- 5% and 2.5% +-5%. Research aff...
by lazyday
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years
Replies: 6
Views: 814

Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

tc101 wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:14 pm
Has there ever been a 20 year period with 0% real growth rate for a 50/50 stock bond portfolio?
Sure, but maybe not in the US yet. Give it time.
by lazyday
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7742

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Using data from AQR Capital Management, as of June 30, 2017, the CAPE 10 earnings yield for developed markets was
Is this data publicly available from AQR?
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest international mutual funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1258

Re: Oldest international mutual funds?

1774. https://www.ific.ca/en/articles/who-we-are-history-of-mutual-funds/ In 1774 a Dutch merchant Adriaan van Ketwich invited subscriptions from investors to form an investment trust (Negotiatie) under the name of Eendragt Maakt Magt (translated Unity Creates Strength). .... Risk spreading was ach...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 16425

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

It seems to me, Bogle's been warning about low equity returns for at least a couple decades and probably before that. US stocks have generally been quite expensive since the late 90s. Since Jan 2000, real return has been only 3% , less than if you bought long term TIPS. And I expect the return from...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 16425

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

If you want more pessimistic views, GMO forecasts -3% or more for US stocks over the coming 7 years, GMO assumes that today's high profit margins will partly revert towards the historical norm. This leads to even lower expected return. If you fully adjust earnings for high margins, then US stocks a...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest international mutual funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1258

Re: Oldest international mutual funds?

Templeton Growth is pretty old.