Search found 2480 matches

by lazyday
Sat Feb 18, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 179
Views: 7261

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

In some SWR studies, the mid-late 1960s was the worst time to retire, requiring the lowest SWR. The US stock market is significantly more expensive now than than. And Treasury rates are lower now than then. Also stats people will tell you that market history is too short to depend on SWR studies.
by lazyday
Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4666

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

The only cases in the last century where economies have done poorly for the long term have also led to Govts creating inflation/hyperinflation..so that the actual value of bonds diminished adequately. Of course there have been cases where stock markets have done poorly while bonds survived well eno...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4666

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

In David Swensen's Unconventional Success, the sample portfolio bond allocation is 50% nominal Treasuries and 50% TIPS. Treasuries are likely to perform well in a deep recession, but poorly with unexpected inflation. TIPS held to maturity should maintain their real purchasing power, before taxes. In...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 184
Views: 22746

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

Looks like that's correct:

https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/t ... cu/offers/

As stated in the Truth In Savings document, the Early Withdrawal Penalty reads as follows:
The penalty will be a loss of three (3) months dividend.


Also

Availability: Residents of Wharton County, Texas
by lazyday
Sun Feb 12, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 112
Views: 9068

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

Mutual funds are by design cheaper to buy/sell. But they are also more expensive to hold because you eat the trading costs of new investors. I find it's very ethical that with an ETF I eat my own trading costs and no one else does. I like this way of thinking. Of course with Vanguard ETF shares are...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 12, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 112
Views: 9068

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

If the 'discount' is 0.29% then it's more likely the *basket* is mispriced, not VTI. (the basket might have a b/a spread of 1% for example if vanguard specifies an illiquid basket). Do ETF baskets often differ greatly from the index the fund follows? I suppose for example a largecap ETF might somet...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Iron Law of Valuation
Replies: 24
Views: 2458

Re: The Iron Law of Valuation

I follow a Hussman-like 'Aligning Market Exposure With the Expected Return/Risk Profile' (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130506.htm) where one allocates a higher percentage to fixed income when expected returns are low and wait for higher expected returns. (sorry I didn't read your link) Would ...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Goldman Sachs ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 1733

Re: New Goldman Sachs ETFs

Yeah, this construction methodology combined with the other stipulations should make for relatively small tilts, low tracking error but probably not doing much. Thanks, this makes me feel better about my tentative decision to wait on GEM and GSIE (EM and Developed). I'm finally moving much of my in...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1864

Re: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?

historically at least there's a largely monotonic relationship between size and return Perhaps there is some benefit, though it seems it would be overwhelmed by choosing a smallcap multifactor index instead. Do you expect that an extremely large company with high combined value/momentum/quality sho...
by lazyday
Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Goldman Sachs ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 1733

Re: New Goldman Sachs ETFs

If I understand correctly, unlike some other multifactor indexes, GS uses separate indexes for each factor and then combines them. So that for example, if a stock has pretty high momentum but astoundingly poor value, it will be overweighted in the momentum portion, excluded from the value portion, a...
by lazyday
Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1864

Re: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?

I don’t understand the reason for including Small in the largecap MSCI Multifactor funds. Is there really a worthwhile benefit in shifting from giant companies to slightly less giant companies? Wouldn’t it mean more turnover, such as selling companies as they grow? This trading might be partially ba...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates Latest Research
Replies: 4
Views: 600

Re: Research Affiliates Latest Research

According to Appendix D, the dynamic allocation doesn't attempt to use valuations, but only prices (momentum and reversal). If for example, the Low Beta or Low Vol factor permanently becomes so expensive that expected factor returns are negative, I suppose the dynamic allocation might not reduce the...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills
Replies: 20
Views: 3141

Re: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills

By "megacap" I mean the very largest stocks. Today, maybe the 100 largest. The S&P 500 includes megacap, largecap, and some midcap stocks, or it did when I last looked at it. AlohaJoe, I wonder how that chart at the end of "The 15-Stock Diversification Myth" would look with m...
by lazyday
Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills
Replies: 20
Views: 3141

Re: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills

You can look at the performance of a fund like BRLIX, it has tracked the US market pretty well with only about 35 stocks. There's some papers about how many stocks are needed for diversification. As I recall, it's surprisingly small when using large stocks. Of course, an index fund would still provi...
by lazyday
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which international stock for diversification?
Replies: 6
Views: 448

Re: Which international stock for diversification?

Just a few that I've been considering... VSS, VTIAX, VEIEX. I like those three a lot, and have money in all three--though not Investor class. If I were to make a set&forget portfolio with the hope of not changing it for decades, those are the three I would use. In reality I'm more of a tinkerer...
by lazyday
Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab reduces index mutual fund ER and trade commission
Replies: 43
Views: 3472

Re: Schwab reduces index mutual fund ER and commission

Also effective March 1, 2017, the expenses on the Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF™ and Schwab Fundamental Index* ETFs will be lowered.


:happy
by lazyday
Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills
Replies: 20
Views: 3141

Re: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills

When focusing on lifetime returns (from the beginning of sample [1926] or first appearance in CRSP through the end of sample or delisting from CRSP, and including delisting returns when appropriate), just 42.1% of common stocks have a holding period return that exceeds the return to holding one-mon...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks/ETFs in Brokerage that would stand strong against a crash
Replies: 10
Views: 743

Re: Stocks/ETFs in Brokerage that would stand strong against a crash

Does he post articles like this I can subscribe to? This was fantastic. My favorite investing author! Years of old free articles here: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/index.shtml I also really liked The Four Pillars of Investing, and most of his "Investing for Adults" series on Amazon...
by lazyday
Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks/ETFs in Brokerage that would stand strong against a crash
Replies: 10
Views: 743

Re: Stocks/ETFs in Brokerage that would stand strong against a crash

Lots of big investors would love an investment with good returns that will do well in a crash. You've got competition! If there were such an investment, the price would probably be driven up until it no longer offered good returns. but I was just curious as to how to play it smart as a young investo...
by lazyday
Sun Jan 22, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing EM value options [Emerging Market]
Replies: 35
Views: 2786

Re: Comparing EM value options [Emerging Market]

In particular, pretty much any EM Small ETF I've come across has trailed its index by substantially more than the expense ratio, In the past I've also noticed this, for several factor funds outside the US. For now I'm using VSS for ex-US small, and VWO for EM. If anyone knows of an EM factor fund w...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI Diversified Multi-Factor Index
Replies: 43
Views: 7780

Re: MSCI Diversified Multi-Factor Index

1) The low fees are partially driven by the fee waiver which is set to expire next September. While the US fund goes up to 24 BP which is still reasonable the International goes up to 54 BP and the Emerging market fund goes up 76 BP which are both less reasonable. This may have changed. The INTF De...
by lazyday
Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?
Replies: 20
Views: 1570

Re: Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?

As a secondary indicator, I do look at 1 and 3 year momentum. For example I am slightly less likely to increase holdings of an asset class if 1 year momentum is negative or 3 year momentum is positive. There seems to be decent evidence on 1 year momentum of asset classes, but less for 3 year. If you...
by lazyday
Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10
Replies: 88
Views: 9345

Re: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10

Larry,

in March 2009 when the D/P and E/P were both well below the yield on virtually riskless 10-year TIPS


Did you mean March 2000?

Thanks for the article.
by lazyday
Fri May 01, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokerage Change - Interactive Brokers or Robinhood
Replies: 28
Views: 4865

Re: Brokerage Change - Interactive Brokers or Robinhood

My memory is getting a call, and after hanging up having time to decide what to sell. I don't believe I was given a deadline, even though I was in violation of the company's margin requirements. And this was a discount broker!

Probably very different today.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?
Replies: 46
Views: 6320

Re: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?

Mean reversion may not be the best characterization of U.S. corporate earnings, as they've shown an overall upward trend of about 7% per year over the long term — but they definitely fluctuate in cycles with the overall economy, both domestic and global. Maybe we could assume that [earnings] oscill...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 14, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?
Replies: 46
Views: 6320

Re: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?

It's hard to make the case that U.S. stocks are anywhere near "bubble territory," in my view, primarily because U.S. corporate earnings in aggregate have been spectacular since the 2008 financial crisis (chart on right). Do earnings mean revert? If so, it could be dangerous to pay a high ...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 14, 2015 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 131
Views: 17150

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

Just from a very quick search, there's probably more: Dec 19 2012 http://www.invescopowershares.com/news/pdf/NR%20121912%20Invesco%20PowerShares%20Announces%20Changes%20to%20ETF%20Family.pdf As part of its ongoing commitment to putting investors’ interests first, Invesco PowerShares announced that i...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International PE10 Update
Replies: 28
Views: 3752

Re: International PE10 Update

DonCamillo wrote:Most of the time, I assume that A, B, and C may be reasonable approximations of the real world, but not something I want to rely on.

Thanks.

For P/S, I'm thinking more of an index average (like the starcapital link) than for stockpicking.
by lazyday
Thu Feb 26, 2015 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International PE10 Update
Replies: 28
Views: 3752

Re: International PE10 Update

Earnings and Profits are nearly entirely fictitious concepts.... My own philosophy is that the only reasonably accurate number in a company's financial report is the dividend paid. Everything else is a guess that probably has some relationship to reality, but the relationship might be quite distant...
by lazyday
Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Converting VG ETFs to open ended funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1089

Re: Converting VG ETFs to open ended funds

What I am interested in is why VG will not convert ETFs to MFs. They do it the other way one time. What is the rationale for not converting to MFs? Buying a traditional mutual fund when it's popular, or selling when there's panic can harm other existing shareholders. This is especially true for les...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hard drive firmware malware
Replies: 9
Views: 986

Re: Hard drive firmware malware

I’m thinking about shifting some focus from hardening hardware and software, to more focus on isolating financial transactions and accounts. A dedicated computer and ID helps isolate transactions. Isolating accounts might reduce the impact of a successful attack, but I don’t know what’s practical an...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 3702

Re: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?

I didn't notice that SEMF isn't a local currency fund. I personally wouldn't want EM bonds except maybe short term, unless they offered a huge yield to make up for the risks. The currency fund seems worth learning about, because of the high yield and chance of PPP reversion , with low credit and ter...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hard drive firmware malware
Replies: 9
Views: 986

Re: Hard drive firmware malware

I believe that SSDs have firmware, or at least some do. A Chromebook might be safe because it's probably resistant to malware that would install the firmware. A dedicated computer for finances might also help, if it was known good when put to that use. It's unlikely to be infected just from visiting...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hard drive firmware malware
Replies: 9
Views: 986

Hard drive firmware malware

It's been proposed that firmware in hard drives or other computer components might be attacked by malware. This might cause a compromise that is difficult to recover from. Well, it's been done. I don't know how easy it is to copy and repurpose the work, but it's out there. This is perhaps the most p...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you retire money no object?
Replies: 64
Views: 4925

Re: When would you retire money no object?

15, but might have come out of retirement someday.
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobyhanna (Valor)-did they change conditions of 7 year CD?
Replies: 11
Views: 1325

Re: Tobyhanna (Valor)-did they change conditions of 7 year C

This is another case of a credit union retroactively changing the terms of its CDs. It’s similar to the cases when Fort Knox Federal Credit Union and CEFCU increased their early withdrawal penalties on existing CDs. Both of these credit unions claimed that their member agreements gave them the righ...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: University of Phoenix
Replies: 20
Views: 2939

Re: University of Phoenix

But overall, a for-profit isn't going to carry the weight of a non-profit I looked into the for profits a few years ago when there were proposals to limit government funding of degrees. There seemed to be a wide range of quality. Some were unethically aggressive in recruiting, and tried to let anyo...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free online news
Replies: 22
Views: 2627

Re: Free online news

You can structure it to suit your preferences too. Anyone know a good way to reduce the number of articles from local and low quality sources? This wasn't a problem until relatively recently; maybe the algorithm changed. It helps to add lots of good sources with "adjust sources" and set t...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 3702

Re: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?

Didn't spot much that's interesting in the annual report. There is a capital loss carryforward, but it still might be best to hold in an IRA. I don't think there's any foreign taxes involved (assuming it never invests directly), and if I understand correctly, after the fund does well enough, there w...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2015
Replies: 5
Views: 1976

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2015

Obtaining copies The Yearbook is available as a free download here. The [2014] Sourcebook is a hard-copy publication and can be sent only by post. Copies of both publications may be requested by journalists from the press contacts below. http://www.six-swiss-exchange.com/issuers/equities/tensid_new...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 3702

Re: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?

Sammy, If you click "currency" on your RA link, you can see expected returns for 12 of the 15 currencies in CAW. Chile, Columbia, Philippines are missing. You can "Export Data" near the bottom of the page, and sort by "Market". Since CAW rebalences to equal weight, I av...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 3702

Re: Emerging markets bonds better than US high yield bonds?

Sammy_M wrote:Wisdomtree's CEW fund

Oddly, I didn't see a place to download the annual report.

Googling this will return a result from hosted.rightprospectus.com for the Aug 31 2014 report:

Code: Select all

annual-report wisdomtree trust Currency Strategy, Fixed Income and Alternative Funds
by lazyday
Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Returns Spreadsheet (DDM, 1/PE and more)
Replies: 27
Views: 3272

Re: Expected Returns Spreadsheet (DDM, 1/PE and more)

It appears you might be looking at periods of 10+ years to evaluate predictability? Big sheet; I haven't tried to understand it. I believe that GMO has said that they shortened their predictions to 7 year expected returns because markets tend to cross fair value sometime within 7 years. They've give...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just no petroleum or defense?
Replies: 49
Views: 4431

Re: Just no petroleum or defense?

You might get close using sector funds. For example you could use http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/ and leave out the Energy and Industrials sectors. EDIT : Vanguard funds posted above by Ken might be better, as I think they include smallcaps or at least midcaps. There might be other Industrials...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL
Replies: 232
Views: 58962

iCar

(WSJ) Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars (Reuters) Apple learning to make self-driving car: source https://news.google.com/news/section?pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=Apple+Inc or google search either of the above lines. Apple might be serious about building a car themsel...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's Recommended Portfolio
Replies: 36
Views: 7085

Re: Vanguard's Recommended Portfolio

Our original plan was to go with a 60/40 portfolio, cinghiale. But the Vanguard advisor cautioned us that Vanguard's forecast for bonds over the next decade wasn't very optimistic. We talked about how prone we'd be to alter course if markets got bad like in 2008, and I honestly told him that we con...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anything on sale now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1776

Re: Is anything on sale now?

Not sure anything's cheap, except in a relative sense.

Emerging Markets and maybe UK.

I like the RA equity returns methodology, and the page lack_ey linked.

Also see cjking's starcapital link in my UK thread. Korea and Hungary look interesting.
by lazyday
Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric Rebalancing in Withdrawal Phase
Replies: 27
Views: 2390

Re: Asymmetric Rebalancing in Withdrawal Phase

The net result of this is that portfolio volatility would be lower, but so will your portfolio returns over the long run because of the lower average equity allocation. As Nisi pointed out, it might make more sense just to determine the max equity allocation that you can stick with over the long pu...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric Rebalancing in Withdrawal Phase
Replies: 27
Views: 2390

Re: Asymmetric Rebalancing in Withdrawal Phase

If you follow Wm Bernstein's approach of securing your retirement with 20-25 years worth of drawdown needs in "safe" products (I would say to age 90 vs a set # of years) and allocate the balance however you want -- you don't have much of a rebalancing issue. This is great if your portfoli...

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