Search found 2593 matches

by lazyday
Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2061

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

stlutz wrote:Hopefully backpacker is still following the thread,


Maybe you don't have it set in your profile, but if you quote someone like quote="stulz" as I did above, instead of just quote, many of us see a notification.
by lazyday
Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]
Replies: 11
Views: 1700

Re: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]

Three quotes I found interesting: The cross-sectional dispersion in ETF premiums peaked during the financial crisis in late 2008, and it has remained at a nontrivial level since then. It is correlated with the VIX index and the Treasury– Eurodollar (TED) spread, which are proxies for the availabilit...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: foreign tax credit for international stocks
Replies: 10
Views: 290

Re: foreign tax credit for international stocks

Last I checked, Vanguard's developed market fund was more efficient than total international, with the emerging markets causing the most distributions. So I split it out to I think recently Developed may have a higher dividend yield, but in 2016 Emerging may have had higher nonqualified dividends. ...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."
Replies: 303
Views: 27080

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

I’ve learned a lot from Larry and wish him well in the path to retirement. This is one of the friendliest forums I’ve visited. Usually when I see problems, “it takes two to tango” applies. I don’t know all the details of this case, but do think the moderators have done a great job overall on this bo...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 4154

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

CyberBob wrote:26% Total International (ex-US) Stock
21% Total International (ex-US) Bond


If you live in the US, doesn't this give you more than the ideal amount of currency risk? Won't that hurt your portfolio's Sharpe ratio?
by lazyday
Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]
Replies: 11
Views: 1700

Re: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]


It worked! Thank you.

You don't even need to be logged in to facebook to do it.

Just add and then click the bookmark from the WSJ page.
by lazyday
Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]
Replies: 11
Views: 1700

Re: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]

If anyone's noticed a free link, please share.

Going to the article from google news doesn't work for me this time.


answer below
by lazyday
Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”
Replies: 21
Views: 2303

Re: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”

Each 40+ year period since 1801 has experienced returns within shouting distance of the two-century average If you invested at the start of 1929 here are your returns by holding length (Real Terms): .... 50 Years: 4.51% 4.5 isn’t shooting distance from 7. Over 50 years, $1 would become only $9 inst...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”
Replies: 21
Views: 2303

Re: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”

Even with a 50 year horizon, prices matter. The 1929 investor who bought at an expensive peak had much worse 50 year performance than the historical average. The 2000 investor should only expect a 50 year return of something like 3% real. The 2017 investor should expect something like 4% over 50 yea...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extreme Frugality vs Living Life - Where do you draw the line?
Replies: 77
Views: 8280

Re: Extreme Frugality vs Living Life - Where do you draw the line?

luckybamboo, It sounds like you might be trying to get comfortable with being less frugal, so I’m writing from that angle. Because of the benefit of compounding, there’s a big payoff to sacrificing when young. A large portfolio later will mean security, comfort, and benefit to heirs. But as the port...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: quick ibonds question
Replies: 3
Views: 579

Re: quick ibonds question

If you're getting physical bonds from your tax refund, the answer might be a little different.

I get sent several smaller bonds for my refund, and would like fewer large ones.
by lazyday
Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”
Replies: 21
Views: 2303

Re: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”

Each 40+ year period since 1801 has experienced returns within shouting distance of the two-century average

Not 40, but 40+ ?

Is the total real return from the 1929 peak to the ~1982 low close to 7%?
by lazyday
Wed Apr 12, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: STRIPS ladder to buy my retirement home?
Replies: 13
Views: 1228

Re: STRIPS ladder to buy my retirement home?

Keeping spreads tight with arbitrage works best with deep and liquid markets. I don't think STRIPS are. Sure, maybe one can consider .1% or .2% a small spread. I think if I were buying STRIPS of shorter duration than a 30 year Treasury, I’d be quite unhappy losing .1% yield on a less liquid securit...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: STRIPS ladder to buy my retirement home?
Replies: 13
Views: 1228

Re: STRIPS ladder to buy my retirement home?

Historically - I don't have access to current pricing - more expensive than their intact counterparts. You have to pay somebody to split them in half. So if you added the value of all the STRIPS in a Treasury, the STRIPS have been noticeably more expensive? I had assumed that it was very cheap for ...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Did Declining rates actually matter"
Replies: 26
Views: 1991

Re: "Did Declining rates actually matter"

my bold: Lazyday: Take a look at the "annual sources of return" graph at the bottom. What you can see is that in relative size, coupon contribution has declined relative to rate change contribution. So in terms of what is driving short-term returns, it's likely more rate driven. That said,...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Did Declining rates actually matter"
Replies: 26
Views: 1991

Re: "Did Declining rates actually matter"

constant maturity 10-year U.S. Treasury .... We ran the test from 12/1981 to 12/2012, since those dates represented both the highest and lowest end-of-year rates. .... On an annualized basis, coupon was 6.24%, while roll only contributed 0.24% and shift [rate changes] contributed 2.22%. Current 10 ...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 7452

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

I think it's important that we can challenge each other's ideas and claims. Ideally with respect and grace.
by lazyday
Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?
Replies: 69
Views: 6328

Re: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?

At least it will be nice to have less space wasted on retail, even if it is an expensive transition.

what do you do with those huge atriums?

Leave them in!
by lazyday
Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?
Replies: 69
Views: 6328

Re: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?

It's always possible to build somewhere new and usually possible to redevelop an existing site at higher densities. Thus, the USA has commercial property which sits empty, and will sit empty forever, until demolished. Before it got to that point, couldn't much retail space be repurposed for office ...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Philosophical Economics on Market Valuation
Replies: 3
Views: 571

Re: Philosophical Economics on Market Valuation

Chart image: http://i0.wp.com/www.philosophicaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/securitization-1.jpg?w=1146 Notice the large, sustained valuation jump that took place in the middle of the 1990s. Right alongside it, there was a large, sustained jump in the percentage of the equity market inve...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 7452

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Say there’s a bad year and reinsurance payments cause SRRIX to lose 15%. But shockingly, the reinsurance marketplace doesn’t change and insurance and reinsurance prices are not changed. So SRRIX lost 15%, a permanent loss of capital? Or, instead let’s say there’s a bad year with 15% losses from rein...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 07, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 2488

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

Some recent discussions on WFC-L & BAC-L http://www.raddr-pages.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5595&start=255#p58401 http://boards.fool.com/a-value-opportunity-in-preferred-stocks-32625749.aspx?sort=whole http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/'a-value-opportu...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 9946

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

That said, it is true that if the required equity premium dropped a lot, and all else stayed the same, you'd expect a one-time windfall for those who already invested in stocks back when the required premium was higher (this is the reasoning that leads to Dow 36000 and such). So here's the question...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 9946

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

(snip) Keep in mind that future real earnings are not directly observable. Among the many reasons stocks could fail to generate historic real returns would simply be slower real earnings growth. …. You're looking at stocks like they were bonds with their yield determined by your projections of their...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 9946

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

(snip) that's ONLY true if you have not read the research which provides very clear and logical risk and behavioral based explanations. Your Complete Guide to Factor Based Investing provides detailed summary of the evidence providing the support/faith you are missing. There’s evidence that Beta and ...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 9946

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

The thing is, there is no really satisfactory explanation for a high equity premium either (not that I have seen, at least, and periodically I look). Certainly the entitlement to earnings explains why their would be a return, and the fact they are a bit risky implies some premium, but you have to a...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't want to retire until another bear market
Replies: 40
Views: 5769

Re: I don't want to retire until another bear market

Considering the economy has morphed from low-margin manufacturing and industrials to high-margin technology and knowledge-based companies over the last 100 hundred years, I think the profit-margins are adequate at this level. And as humans are slowly replaced by robots this trend is likely to conti...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 9946

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

What made me slow in considering factor diversification in equity is how opaque the source of risk premium is for factors other than beta. I expect to be compensated for an investment in stocks not just because my beta exposes me to market risk which should be compensated, but because I can see that...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 44
Views: 2957

Re: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]

Yeah, from today, it seems unlikely a US only investor will suffer like an investor in Japan from 1990.

Still, our CAPE is double that of several other markets now. Even if not nearly as extreme as Japan, it seems that international diversification reduces risk.
by lazyday
Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6305

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

Or the essential bear market from 1966-1980? Pretty decent "bear" market. The CAGR of the S&P 500 from January 1, 1966 to December 31, 1980 was over 6%. I could live with that over the next 15 years. That's a nominal rate, right? Inflation was high. I think both stocks and bonds had t...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 44
Views: 2957

Re: Investing in the World - Part 1 [Financial Page blog article]

I think though if the US has a Japanese style meltdown, most other countries will have a big problem too. It always strikes me as strange to compare Japan to the US. US from 2000-2027 could look like a less extreme version of Japan 1990-2017, and I don't see why that would mean that other countries...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 5170

Re: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?

FWIW, There was a 2010 interview by Ben Stein where Buffett was asked about VTI (Total Stock Market): http://archive.fortune.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm ... What should a typical upper-middle-class person in the U.S. buy to prepare for retirement? "Equities,...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't want to retire until another bear market
Replies: 40
Views: 5769

Re: I don't want to retire until another bear market

How is the US stock market quite expensive right now? Compared to the last 100 years for example, the expected returns of both US stocks and US bonds are very low. If you think that this is the new normal, then compared to bonds stocks might not be expensive. And there's a chance that this is the n...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SV P/E currently lowest valuation relative to 15 year average
Replies: 3
Views: 430

Re: SV P/E currently lowest valuation relative to 15 year average

I see that the 15 year average PE for Large Blend is 14.4, but for small value it is 16.8.

Why is the 15 year PE higher for SV than Large Blend?
by lazyday
Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 245
Views: 31033

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

VictoriaF wrote:Don't I have to pay for them?


I don't know much about them, but I think it varies. Vanguard when I last noticed was free or very cheap.
by lazyday
Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't want to retire until another bear market
Replies: 40
Views: 5769

Re: I don't want to retire until another bear market

I don’t think it’s crazy at all, especially if you’re not unhappy with your work. The US stock market is quite expensive, and international markets aren’t exactly cheap. I think there’s a real possibility of a deep and/or long bear market sometime in our future. For another perspective, if you haven...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 245
Views: 31033

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

Victoria,

Do wire transfers not make sense?
by lazyday
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen's Bond Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 1301

Re: David Swensen's Bond Portfolio

His book was written a while back, when bonds had some nice interest payments. Would this still be his advice today? I believe he was interviewed at or after the peak of the financial crisis, and reduced the allocation of REITS by 5% and increased EM by 5%... perhaps because of the high risk of lev...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Any Factor Investors Worry About Skating Where The Puck Was?
Replies: 19
Views: 1392

Re: Do Any Factor Investors Worry About Skating Where The Puck Was?

You can see the valuations of different factors relative to their historical norm at https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/smart-beta.html#!/strategies It shows for instance, low volatility, minimum volatility and size as being expensive in the US, developed and emerging markets, but that qual...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 2488

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

grabiner wrote:One way to look at this is that you could buy $50 of Treasuries and $50 of preferred stock.
....

So simple! 50% Treasury and constant rebalancing. Thank you.
by lazyday
Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 245
Views: 31033

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

maybe $10?...for every transfer in or out of savings over 6 transfers/month You probably can open a second account at the same bank, without the limit of 6 transfers. It might have a lower interest rate. You could keep the balance near 0, and when ready to make a few transfers, make one large trans...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Andrew Tobias's "The only investment guide you'll ever need" $2.99 on Kindle
Replies: 4
Views: 991

Re: Andrew Tobias's "The only investment guide you'll ever need" $2.99 on Kindle

If you do read it and find an explanation for the change from just TIPS to just nominal Treasuries, it might make for an interesting discussion on the Theory section of the forum. By the way, in case you didnt' catch the other post, the short If You Can by W Bernstein is free at the moment: https://...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 2488

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

$100 in the prefs gives you twice as much risk ($100 of capital rather than $50) and so you would expect twice the spread over US Treasury. That is the part that troubles me. I can put my money in a 30 year Treasury, and get all my money back. If I buy the Wells bond, I might get back roughly half,...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 2488

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

1. Wells Fargo 30 year bonds yield 4.6% .... That seems like a great shorthand way of checking if the yield is at all reasonable. I think I like it! Twice the capital at risk roughly means twice the spread I’m not smart enough to convince myself of this part. Do you know what this concept is called...
by lazyday
Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justification for Adding REITs
Replies: 77
Views: 6069

Re: Justification for Adding REITs

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:However, because equity REIT shares are traded on the same exchanges as ordinary company stocks, I get why they are often included in broad market company stock funds, despite how that inconveniences me.

I believe Shell used to be part of the S&P 500 for similar reasons.
by lazyday
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Andrew Tobias's "The only investment guide you'll ever need" $2.99 on Kindle
Replies: 4
Views: 991

Re: Andrew Tobias's "The only investment guide you'll ever need" $2.99 on Kindle

For the really lazy and unsophisticated investor like me, in 2005 he recommended to split one's investment three ways, in 1) a broadly diversified U.S. stock fund 2) broadly diversified international fund and 3) TIPS. The 2016 ed. replaced "TIPS" with "a treasury fund". So ... s...
by lazyday
Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No market for short TIPS?
Replies: 13
Views: 978

Re: No market for short TIPS?

The amount on the web page you reference, lazyday, is out of date. As of 2/28/2017 the inflation-adjusted TIPS principal outstanding is $1,247 billion. This is about 9% of the $14,411 billion total US government debt held by the public. (See Monthly Statement of the Public Debt .) Thanks. Happened ...
by lazyday
Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No market for short TIPS?
Replies: 13
Views: 978

Re: No market for short TIPS?

OK my earlier link shows daily TIPS trading of 5/550 = about 1% of market cap. About the same as the most heavily traded stock in 2016, BAC?? 108 million shares BAC traded / 10 Billion shares outstanding = about 1% of market cap. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/stock-exchanges-tur...
by lazyday
Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No market for short TIPS?
Replies: 13
Views: 978

Re: No market for short TIPS?

I don't really get the illiquidity of TIPS. There's only 4 new issues per year and over a half trillion of TIPS outstanding. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/fin-mkts/Pages/tips.aspx That's only 8% of US marketable debt, but isn't it still huge enough to be pretty liquid? Or does nobody want...

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