Search found 2533 matches

by lazyday
Sat Mar 25, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?
Replies: 6
Views: 621

Re: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?

Assume one is retired, and is taking 4% from one’s portfolio. If there's a spreadsheet that you can download to test SWR strategies, you could try to model what would happen for retirement years from about 1965 to 1970. Depending on your assumptions, I wouldn't be surprised if the portfolio is gone...
by lazyday
Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 89
Views: 5715

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

(snips) When I need to guess inflation rates for whatever reason, I use 3%, for these reasons: b) It's reasonably close to what inflation "used to be" in "the old days," i.e. before the 1970s. c) It's reasonably close to what inflation has been "ever since then," i.e. a...
by lazyday
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to Time the Market
Replies: 8
Views: 1270

Re: Trying to Time the Market

james22 wrote:Yeah, but market efficiency means any timing as good as any other.


Maybe the average institutional $ is better at timing than the average individual investor $.
by lazyday
Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 90
Views: 5060

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

Valuations in EM were the highest they have ever been in 2007: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/472_investing_versus_flipping.html Right now they are around the same range they were in 1998 and 2002. I wasn't paying much attention to investing back then, but I would im...
by lazyday
Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to Time the Market
Replies: 8
Views: 1270

Re: Trying to Time the Market

The investor is no likelier to be a perfectly bad timer than he is to be a perfectly good timer. I think people of normal and healthy psychology are more likely to be bad timers than good. Even if someone can coldly ignore herd behavior and other pitfalls, I suspect that most market timing will be ...
by lazyday
Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 90
Views: 5060

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

On Research Affiliates I mean, it's plausible but doesn't seem particularly rigorously derived. For example, they also assume halfway mean reversion of stock valuations to the historical average over 10 years, given without real justification. I suppose if you aim too hard for rigor, then you can't ...
by lazyday
Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 90
Views: 5060

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

My bold Also, there's maybe a case for currency movements as well, though that's always difficult to predict. For example Research Affiliates, who can't look at anything without assuming mean reversion will spring forth, like EM currencies relative to USD, but I don't take that too seriously . But m...
by lazyday
Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem
Replies: 20
Views: 1606

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem

Probably not enough independent data to be very useful, but it might be interesting to see a chart with X axis = real expected return of a 60/40 portfolio, Y axis = SWR, each retirement year is a point on the chart. If data is available for other countries, show them on the same chart using differen...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab vs Vanguard vs Fidelity - ER fees
Replies: 18
Views: 1453

Re: Schwab vs Vanguard vs Fidelity - ER fees

I'm curious what form of suffering an ETF shareholder might expect in those type of scenarios? Worries of capital gains distributions? Tracking error? There could be cap gains in some cases, though Vanguard has claimed that there are some tax advantages to having the traditional shareholders on top...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab vs Vanguard vs Fidelity - ER fees
Replies: 18
Views: 1453

Re: Schwab vs Vanguard vs Fidelity - ER fees

If it were a taxable account and I had to go with index funds over ETFs, I would want the Vanguard index funds since they benefit from the ETF share class, making them more tax efficient. This is a good point. Similarly, for an ETF buyer of assets that are expensive to trade such as small cap, emer...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard
Replies: 5
Views: 687

Re: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/20/how-cliff-asness-became-a-billionaire-by-building-the-vanguard-of-hedge-funds ( thread ) My bolding: Asness doesn’t like the term smart-beta. It makes his investing techniques seem like a fad and Asness views himself as a rigorous quant with an app...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Cliff Asness Became A Billionaire By Building A Kind Of Vanguard Of Hedge Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1746

Re: How Cliff Asness Became A Billionaire By Building A Kind Of Vanguard Of Hedge Funds

I assume though that AQR is still charging 150 basis points (1.5%) + a performance fee? Asness’ remaining hedge fund products are for the most part cheaper than the average hedge fund. Its hedge funds sometimes charge performance fees of 10% of profits. But some AQR hedge funds still charge the ind...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab vs Vanguard vs Fidelity - ER fees
Replies: 18
Views: 1453

Re: Schwab vs Vanguard vs Fidelity - ER fees

I think the fees are so close that they are not the number one deciding factor. Agreed. A couple of my factors: Vanguard seems to be pretty conservative in most ways. For example, years ago when comparing the Vanguard vs Fidelity prospectus for a nearly identical index fund, Fidelity allowed more u...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 83
Views: 4808

Re: an in depth look at gold

jalbert wrote:One of the Trinity studies looked at the effect of adding precious metals to one's allocation on retirement portfolio survivability ....

Thanks for the paper.

Looks like this was a Monte Carlo simulation, using corp debt instead of Treasuries.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever
Replies: 95
Views: 6528

Re: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever

Say that in 2007 it was obvious to you Real Estate was so crazy that when it fell, it would take the stock market with it. What should you have done? If you really had foresight into what a RE crash could do, you might have sold your S&P500/TSM to buy its sector indexes instead, leaving out Fina...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 83
Views: 4808

Re: an in depth look at gold

so if it is indeed a currency I would think making it more readily available might actually make it more desirable Interesting argument, but I'm not sure that gold is quite a currency? I haven't read much about gold, but have the idea that many people use it to store wealth, as a hedge/diversifier,...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else taking less risk
Replies: 115
Views: 9280

Re: Anyone else taking less risk

It is funny how many ways folks will word it to avoid saying they're market timing, isn't it? Taking less risk based on market signals.... then will take more risk later based on market signals.... Hmmm?? Tactical Asset Allocation is probably more accurate than Market Timing. I do it myself, though...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else taking less risk
Replies: 115
Views: 9280

Re: Anyone else taking less risk

I am taking less risk because expensive markets offer lower expected returns. I'll keep to the new allocation until the market is less expensive and offers higher expected returns. I think that can be a reasonable approach for some. It’s just that some people seem to assume that they will be able t...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 83
Views: 4808

Re: an in depth look at gold

Personally, it makes me nervous that the monetary value of gold is essentially a matter of convention. If the world suddenly or gradually decides to unwind that convention and gold reverts to its industrial/aesthetic value only, it could perform quite poorly. This is the primary reason I hate gold....
by lazyday
Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Investment Options
Replies: 4
Views: 601

Re: Emergency Fund Investment Options

Happened to come across this today, on Stable Value funds: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=66285#p918636 The Vanguard TIPS fund is not zero risk either, but maybe it's stable enough for your third tier. You can look up how it performed in the 2008-9 crisis when TIPS poor performance...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance covering excess above $250,000?
Replies: 51
Views: 5485

Re: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance about $250,000?

I am not familiar with the SIPC so I can't really comment. Other than to say for a brokerage, client money should not be a large number, because spare cash in the client account gets swept up into a money market fund, or invested. At least with any brokerage account I have seen- unless someone gets...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 83
Views: 4808

Re: an in depth look at gold

Just to be clear, gold equity has high volatility, but with its low correlation to other portfolio assets you might use it to construct a portfolio of (hopefully) lower volatility or higher returns. The high volatility means that even a little can make a difference, and is theoretically a benefit be...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard
Replies: 5
Views: 687

Re: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard

Some of the arguments against using value to time factors do not seem to apply to SMB, which was not included in the paper.
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Investment Options
Replies: 4
Views: 601

Re: Emergency Fund Investment Options

I have plenty of Roth that I could withdraw penalty free but I don't want to go that route. The plan is to put the emergency fund $$$ in the tax sheltered and if ever need be withdraw from the brokerage account, then use the tax sheltered to purchase the stock index fund that I sold in the brokerag...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 83
Views: 4808

Re: an in depth look at gold

I'm not aware of any academic research, but there are a few articles at Portfolio Charts where it is discussed and the data examined. https://portfoliocharts.com/2015/09/08/why-your-safe-withdrawal-rate-is-probably-wrong/ Nice it lets you calculate SWR, though gold here is the metal not equity whic...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Investment Options
Replies: 4
Views: 601

Re: Emergency Fund Investment Options

I'm open to other options via IRA s but I thought employers options might be best??? (better options with no minimums)) Have you checked to see under what circumstances you can withdraw funds from your account, and if there are penalties? I've read that with some emergencies, there are no penalties...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 83
Views: 4808

Re: an in depth look at gold

While it's real value over long periods of time isn't likely to go up, it still has had investment value when it comes to smoothing out returns sufficiently to increase SWRs beyond stock and bond only portfolios, at least for the last ~40 years. Are there any SWR studies that have included PM equit...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance covering excess above $250,000?
Replies: 51
Views: 5485

Re: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance about $250,000?

To me it's a useful number, because it says that an asset which is sometimes casually thought of as "risk free" is not. In other words, the argument that "CDs are better than bonds" (at current interest rates) only holds water if US Treasury Bonds and CDs are equivalently risk f...
by lazyday
Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else taking less risk
Replies: 115
Views: 9280

Re: Anyone else taking less risk

If you already wanted to reduce risk, then I think this is a great time to do it because of low expected returns today. If you're only doing it because markets are expensive, then I would ask if you're ok keeping your new allocation forever, if there is never an opportunity to buy back cheaper than ...
by lazyday
Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance covering excess above $250,000?
Replies: 51
Views: 5485

Re: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance about $250,000?

I thought SIPC only insures against misappropriation of shares held by the brokerage. So if the brokerage goes bankrupt and your shares go missing, then SIPC kicks in. Here's what I'm imagining: You hold $1M at one Merrill Edge brokerage account, where you hold VTI. Merrill itself engages in sophis...
by lazyday
Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance covering excess above $250,000?
Replies: 51
Views: 5485

Re: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance about $250,000?

tuningfork wrote:Fidelity kept the cash in a bunch of separate accounts, each $250K. Looking under the covers each of those accounts were at different banks around the country.


Very nice.

I was reading elsewhere about Fidelity's efforts in order execution quality. Seems like a great broker.
by lazyday
Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance covering excess above $250,000?
Replies: 51
Views: 5485

Re: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance about $250,000?

I'm more worried about amounts over $500,000 in SIPC accounts. Not sure anyone would take us seriously, but so far I have been avoiding brokerage accounts over $500K. Some brokers have private insurance but I assume that if it is actually needed, it will fail much harder than SIPC and pay pennies o...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4180

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

Clickbait. If you watch the interview, he never said that and in fact said that he doesn't know which way the market will go --- He even said that this could be like 1997 where the market did just fine with a high CAPE. Click the image at the top for an interview snip: https://www.bloomberg.com/new...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wells Fargo Brokerage
Replies: 27
Views: 3315

Re: Wells Fargo Brokerage

livesoft wrote:
tobyjoe wrote:
in_reality wrote:


If the ETF you can't trade has over $25M in assets and is at least 6 months old, you might try calling to ask for a "review". Several days later you might be able to trade.
by lazyday
Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Important Bear Market Signal sent
Replies: 19
Views: 3074

Re: Important Bear Market Signal sent

Buy when there's love in the streets!

Even if the love is your own.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: international bonds a good idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 1772

Re: international bonds a good idea?

I suspect that if one just followed Vanguard's advice without questioning it, they would be in pretty good shape. I assume that their advice is based on decent research. And the interests of Vanguard align pretty well with the investor's interests, so there is little motivation for them to intention...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett interview Monday 2/27
Replies: 38
Views: 4116

Re: Buffett interview Monday 2/27

With RTM (Bogle's 'Iron Law of investing'), "...we expect the S&P 500 total return to underperform Treasury yields by about -2% annually over the coming 12-year horizon." https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170306.htm I like RA’s estimate methodology. They include 50% RTM of PE10 in 1...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 06, 2017 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett interview Monday 2/27
Replies: 38
Views: 4116

Re: Buffett interview Monday 2/27

[Jesse Felder]What you need to know about Mr. Buffett, though, is that he was eager to share this warning signal with investors only well after stocks had peaked. In fact, the Nasdaq Composite had already crashed by more than 70% before the words above were published. Did Buffett really not warn on...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates: A 2000-2016 case study
Replies: 31
Views: 4304

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates: A 2000-2016 case study

From the link 4% probably wasn’t such a bad assumption for regular retirees who were 65 years old in 2000. Several years ago Wade Pfau published "Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History? A Progress Report after 10 Years" At the time Pfau (always the...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tilting with small cap and REIT still recommended if they are not available as index-funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2078

Re: Is tilting with small cap and REIT still recommended if they are not available as index-funds?

Yep, DGS is the best of a bad bunch, and I think part of it is that so many of these companies are State-Owned and the float adjustments make mega-companies look "small" when they're really not. Interesting, so some funds not only use float adjustments to weight their index, but also use ...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tilting with small cap and REIT still recommended if they are not available as index-funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2078

Re: Is tilting with small cap and REIT still recommended if they are not available as index-funds?

Agree with others that it is not worth the extra cost. I think the benefits of tilting were higher in the past than they will be in the future, and that some tilts add risk rather than reduce it. My personal opinion is that many tilts are barely worth it, or not worthwhile, even with a low cost. You...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Swensen - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?
Replies: 11
Views: 1193

Re: Swenson - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?

It's been so long since I've read the book that I can't be sure, but the primary reason might have been diversification for risk management. Own asset classes that are worthwhile, and are different from each other. He has written on rebalancing bonus, so that might have also been a reason. Lack_ey, ...
by lazyday
Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-G more accurate than CAPE?
Replies: 2
Views: 300

Re: CAPE-G more accurate than CAPE?

I don't know if it's useful, but someone divided PE10 by 10 year GDP growth. The graph below charts price-to-earnings (CAPE) divided by the secular GDP growth (ten-year average), allowing for a proper comparison of valuations to fundamentals. https://realinvestmentadvice.com/second-to-none-a-look-at...
by lazyday
Wed Mar 01, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity drops equity trade fee to $4.95
Replies: 63
Views: 4853

Re: Fidelity drops equity trade fee to $4.95

munemaker,

For those who slice and dice or tilt, it can be difficult to just use Vanguard products.

If I were just using Vanguard funds then I would be most comfortable using Vanguard to hold them. Their interests are best aligned with mine, as David Swensen explained in Unconventional Success.
by lazyday
Wed Mar 01, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity drops equity trade fee to $4.95
Replies: 63
Views: 4853

Re: Fidelity drops equity trade fee to $4.95

malabargold wrote:I wouldn't use M-L if they paid me.

The bastion of high fees and fighting fiduciary rules
for far too long.


I can understand being wary of a company known for separating customers from their money.

Though it does seen that Edge has been earning a much better reputation lately.
by lazyday
Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 25
Views: 1833

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

To be clear "other way" for investors to duplicate BH's investment strategy & advantages. Oh, I see. Fairfax has insurance interests. I believe Leukadia did, also? I didn't know that about LUK! Through the 1990s, Leucadia was primarily a multiline insurer offering both property and li...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 28, 2017 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 25
Views: 1833

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

The thing that others cannot duplicate with BH (Leukadia used to be another way; Fairfax still is, arguably) is the extraordinary cheap cost of finance Buffett enjoys through high credit rating and through his insurance "float" (premiums paid, claims not settled). That means BH is de fact...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Value and Int'l Small
Replies: 11
Views: 1102

Re: International Value and Int'l Small

Now that have VFSVX (Int'l SV) and VIHAX (Int'l high div). Is VIHAX a large value fund? it seems to be, but any thoughts to the contrary? I am thinking of dumping VTIAX and splitting the investment into VFSVX and VIHAX. Any good reason not to? As Longtermgrowth says above, VFSVX/VSS is not a value ...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett interview Monday 2/27
Replies: 38
Views: 4116

Re: Buffett interview Monday 2/27

Full CNBC transcript of interview Thanks. A few quotes on the expensive US stock market and interest rates, from throughout the interview: -------------------------------------- And we are not in a bubble territory or anything of the sort. Now, if interest rates were 7 or 8 percent then these price...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wells Fargo Brokerage
Replies: 27
Views: 3315

Re: Wells Fargo Brokerage

One of the stocks I cannot trade had volume yesterday 25,772 and over $1B in assets.

A google search for "The security entered is restricted from trading" with quotes only shows our two posts, so not many people seem to have this problem.

Go to advanced search