Search found 5358 matches

by lack_ey
Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to follow the 10-year Treasury
Replies: 6
Views: 220

Re: How to follow the 10-year Treasury

For even older than the DGS10 series above, see Prof. Damodaran's data: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/histretSP.xls There may be some other sources that go further back. Keep in mind that there aren't auctions for new 10-year Treasury notes every day, and there are multiple Treasury...
by lack_ey
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Details on Bloomberg Barclays bond benchmarks?
Replies: 6
Views: 291

Re: Details on Bloomberg Barclays bond benchmarks?

You shouldn't be looking for the spliced index—that's not a real thing. Vanguard is just meaning to compare their index fund against the index used, which would be the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index through the end of 2009 and then the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted I...
by lack_ey
Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporter doing story on delaying sales of assets because of possible lower tax rates
Replies: 8
Views: 667

Re: Reporter doing story on delaying sales of assets because of possible lower tax rates

This doesn't apply to me, but is this with respect to (1) potential changes in tax code or (2) personal taxable income being lower later (e.g. a lower tax year between jobs or after some other change in personal circumstance)? Or either?
by lack_ey
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally Bank No penalty CD for parking cash, is there a catch?
Replies: 37
Views: 4355

Re: Ally Bank No penalty CD for parking cash, is there a catch?

However this rep also said that I wouldn't be able to redeem a CD online and then buy another with it the same day, which apparently contradicts some previous posts in this thread. Like you said, someone needs to test it. :) I have a small 5 year cd to use in case I run out of cash. If I ever break...
by lack_ey
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to put "leftover" money in an ETF portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1077

Re: Where to put "leftover" money in an ETF portfolio

It just means you're $20-$100 less invested than intended, so keep about $20-$100 more in the account than you would have otherwise and it balances out.

Effectively you just get a crappier cash rate here than elsewhere, losing you probably sub-$1 a year. I doubt it's worth worrying about.
by lack_ey
Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Office Chair
Replies: 15
Views: 1114

Re: Office Chair

I bought a used Steelcase Think (model with full armrest adjustments, in good condition) for about $270 shipped a few years ago. You might be able to find something used but high quality locally as well.
by lack_ey
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Historical and Current Corporate Bonds Risk Premium
Replies: 4
Views: 271

Re: Historical and Current Corporate Bonds Risk Premium

Publicly available (for free) there's the data in the FRED database starting 1996 for various option-adjusted corporate spreads: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/search?st=option-adjusted+spread Checking yields alone from different indexes that are not duration-matched may be problematic. You can look fo...
by lack_ey
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 90
Views: 8018

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Anyone know if Fidelity offers a 1% MM fund? Paul As a retail investor, if you have $1M to invest. The general-purpose prime money market fund offered (Fidelity Money Market Fund) has a yield of 0.84% on the regular shares and 0.92% on the premium share class with the $100k minimum. And that's incl...
by lack_ey
Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Treasury Money Market (VUSXX)
Replies: 1
Views: 269

Re: Vanguard Treasury Money Market (VUSXX)

Hm, usually I would expect a yield advantage from Federal Money Market over Treasury Money Market, one that more than makes up for the higher taxes even in CA. And a quick check at least of distribution yield in the last couple years seems to indicate that was common. Both are still worse than savin...
by lack_ey
Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 90
Views: 8018

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

I just went to the Ally Bank web site and checked on their 12 month CD which does in fact pay 1.35%. However in their own words: Early withdrawal penalty will apply You're looking at the regular CD. Check the No Penalty CD with the 11-month term. With $25k min, 1.35%. https://www.ally.com/bank/no-p...
by lack_ey
Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 2
Views: 232

What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

Just as a short disclaimer, this post is in the theory section for a reason and is not about personal investments. I haven't really been checking the news, Fed watching, etc. and may be out of the loop, but I just checked recent Treasury yields and as of yesterday we're looking at about 1.21% on the...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Vanguard recommends 100% stock then why do their TD funds only have 90% max?
Replies: 4
Views: 909

Re: If Vanguard recommends 100% stock then why do their TD funds only have 90% max?

The questionnaire's purpose is to allow for a more personalized recommendation based on the information given, one that a one-size-fits-all fund cannot accommodate.

If you answer the questionnaire differently, you may instead see a more conservative allocation than the target date fund.
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 1788

Re: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?

...GLD is a grantor trust, not an ETN... :oops: Sorry. Thanks. I changed it to "exchanged-traded investment vehicle." For what it's worth, the generic term I usually see is Exchange Traded Product (ETP). That's less descriptive perhaps, but a bit more standard. You can also just call it a...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 1788

Re: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?

3) The GLD exchange-traded note, which closely tracks the price of gold, GLD is a grantor trust, not an ETN. Unlike the usual '40 Act structure used by most ETFs, it cannot lend out assets (do securities lending, as in let others borrow a few gold bars). One big complaint about ETNs is counterparty...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds vs bonds (yes, again)
Replies: 16
Views: 1332

Re: Bond funds vs bonds (yes, again)

Some amount of short-term rate increases are priced into the market, and the yield curve is somewhat upward sloping. So if you're making a tactical play on rates, you generally only want to lower duration if you think the increases are going to happen faster than other people do. 2) Can you explain...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How riskier are Aaa corporate bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 919

Re: How riskier are Aaa corporate bonds?

With brokerage CDs can you pretty much purchase in any dollar amount? More or less. You have to buy whole numbers of bonds/CDs. Generally the par value is $1,000 so you're looking at roughly multiples of $1,000 (though the actual value could be more or less if currently trading at a premium or disc...
by lack_ey
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD

First of all, please fix the above quote string. I think I am being attributed to something you wrote for a paragraph or two, which is confusing for anybody following the conversation. Thanks. edit: oops I screwed the quote strings myself. I hate these errors, my bad. Even if the return is correlate...
by lack_ey
Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How riskier are Aaa corporate bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 919

Re: How riskier are Aaa corporate bonds?

The default risk is very low unless the bond is perhaps very long term. The long-run average is under 1% over 10 years for an Aaa corporate bond, with the frequency being even lower in the more recent decades. Now, some credit downgrades along the way are actually kind of likely—in 10 years there's ...
by lack_ey
Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD

That is a good point with the interest rate. It is especially bad considering that stock prices are considered relativity high. If the market dropped by 30% or more, would that make this a worthwhile investment over bonds? If by the "market" you mean the stock market dropping 30%, all els...
by lack_ey
Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD

That is a good point with the interest rate. It is especially bad considering that stock prices are considered relativity high. If the market dropped by 30% or more, would that make this a worthwhile investment over bonds? If by the "market" you mean the stock market dropping 30%, all els...
by lack_ey
Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD

The minimum is .25% a year. As you and the above posters pointed out, this is a good deal for them. Bonds are only averaging 2%-3%. If the market goes up 10% the 1st year, doesn't that mean I get 10%? No, because (1) it's linked to the return of [their ETF portfolio minus cash return, minus fees] a...
by lack_ey
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD

The minimum is .25% a year. As you and the above posters pointed out, this is a good deal for them. Bonds are only averaging 2%-3%. If the market goes up 10% the 1st year, doesn't that mean I get 10%? No, because (1) it's linked to the return of [their ETF portfolio minus cash return, minus fees] a...
by lack_ey
Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD
Replies: 21
Views: 1274

Re: JP Morgan Marked Linked CD

I'm not seeing the terms of the actual CD, just the description of their index. Usually the way these things go is that these are effectively illiquid investments where you fork over money, and in X years when the CD matures, they give you some value that corresponds to the index performance or the ...
by lack_ey
Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds vs bonds (yes, again)
Replies: 16
Views: 1332

Re: Bond funds vs bonds (yes, again)

I guess I don't see the issue here. Yes, if interest rates go up my bond fund will drop in value, but as the fund ads new bonds at the higher yield I benefit from the higher yield, right? Presumably it all comes out in the wash, so to speak. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm no expert at ...
by lack_ey
Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1459

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

I'd put it this way: you shouldn't overreact and overplay your hand when the quality of the read is low. That's an interesting way to put it. I used to count cards when playing Blackjack in Vegas back in the 90s (when you could still find single-deck tables). Knowing that the count was high was goo...
by lack_ey
Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1459

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

This is a very valid point. It is easier to look at old data and find a model that would have worked. In terms, of US it would not have worked, but what about the rest of the world? If you look through all the data across countries and do a number of analyses, with fairly reasonable confidence you ...
by lack_ey
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1459

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

The historic average doesn't much matter in the way a lot of people talk about it, but may be an indication of structural changes, a different discount rate, and so on, in addition to anything potentially more cyclical. People are paying more for earnings from US stocks than they previously did most...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 6373

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Not that risky? Are you serious? A few years ago Tesla had barely sold any automobiles and was bleeding cash furiously and known for underdelivering (actually, that's largely still true, though the coming expansion to mass market and new plants are closer to reality). Amazon was still on the traject...
by lack_ey
Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American funds target date, do you pay underlying ER?
Replies: 2
Views: 205

Re: American funds target date, do you pay underlying ER?

Check the prospectus and you'll see acquired fund fees and expenses, which represent fees from the underlying funds used. That's part of the total figure shown.
by lack_ey
Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing the right Short term Bond ETF
Replies: 7
Views: 486

Re: Choosing the right Short term Bond ETF

BSCI and BSCJ are closed-end bond funds. That is almost certainly not what you intend to invest in. Do you have fixed liabilities in 2018 or 2019 that you are investing for? I disagree with livesoft that they are all right. I wouldn't even consider ITR a short term bond ETF; the correct SPDR offeri...
by lack_ey
Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

I just don't understand the need for bitcoins in the US. I have seen a decent influx of services that have switched to bitcoin to get away from Paypal. Paypal has been known to ban people and sites with little notice. Currently for example they ban VPN and VPS services even though they are complete...
by lack_ey
Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

Well, I received my 0.0101 ZEC from the mining pool. Just to briefly document... Then I used my ZCash client to send 0.01 ZEC (0.0001 lost as mining/transaction fee) to Changelly, the automated exchange. That converted 0.01 ZEC to 0.08791751 LTC, sent to my wallet at Coinbase. Coinbase automatically...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity's index fund manager: Geode Capital Management
Replies: 9
Views: 847

Re: Fidelity's index fund manager: Geode Capital Management

If it doesn't, then I suspect Fidelity will be on the hook, seeing as how I gave my money to them (not to GCM). My only concern with that is that I wonder if there could ever be a Madoff-like feeder-fund sort of situation where Fidelity is not necessarily aware of what GCM is up to (not at all sayi...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Optimized" Bond ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1094

Re: "Optimized" Bond ETFs

Looks like iShares Yield Optimized Bond (BYLD) gets about $200k volume a day. That's low but not really low. The underlying components are fairly liquid, though, this being an ETF that holds other iShares bond ETFs that are better known. I guess that's why the spreads are middling given the lowish v...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

Now. You guys will know this. Is it also an index of interest in Artificial Intelligence? I believe that I read that graphics processors are used a lot in AI research & applications? The demand for these for AI, big data processing, etc. is relatively stable over time, and the purchasers are us...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

Thank you that's quite interesting. A graphic card index, LOL! It's the sort of thing military intelligence and commercial intelligence people dream up- -proxy measures. I know the CIA tracks AK47 (automatic rifle) prices-- a spike is a good indication of disturbance or unrest upcoming. (I should a...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

Thank you that's quite interesting. A graphic card index, LOL! It's the sort of thing military intelligence and commercial intelligence people dream up- -proxy measures. I know the CIA tracks AK47 (automatic rifle) prices-- a spike is a good indication of disturbance or unrest upcoming. (I should a...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 1587

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

I'd be more worried about the more immediate impact from not being able to reinvest dividends prior to payout or do securities lending, in addition to the higher ER compared to competing products. By the way, some other older ETPs like SPDR S&P Midcap 400 ETF Trust (MDY), SPDR Dow Jones Industri...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

Equilibrium in theory should be mildly profitable, yeah. It's just that the price swings can move things far away from that. I think ether (Ethereum) counts as one of the "bigger currencies" and that is definitely profitable now too for the amateurs, the small-time residential operations w...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

It was Bitcoin in particular where from what I have read, the cost of mining is greater than the value you can produce, unless you have really low cost of electricity (c. 2 c/ kwhr). Don't have a view on other ecurrencies although presumably, at some point, those that restrict their total amount in...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

That correlation between Google Trends and bitcoin price is unusually tight. I believe Google Trends is a trailing indicator; the price goes up, and then people search for "bitcoin". Or do people search for bitcoin and this pushes up the price? I guess there's something of a positive feed...
by lack_ey
Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 71
Views: 15091

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

I'm embarrassed to say I did not know this fund existed. I'm rethinking keeping the cash portions of my EF here instead of at Ally (most of the rest of it is in VWIUX). A few bucks is a few bucks, after all :) It's not really a cash substitute. Ally savings account rate still beats the risk-free ra...
by lack_ey
Wed May 31, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 71
Views: 15091

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

By the way, for reference, compared to the popular ETFs in the space (all with more than $1 billion assets, $0.01 spreads, ultrashort investment grade bonds), two mutual funds, and Vanguard Prime Money Market: http://i.imgur.com/NHOSQAx.png http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VUSFX&...
by lack_ey
Tue May 30, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2144

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

Unsurprisingly, if you overlay the price chart with the Google search chart: http://i.imgur.com/y9cNfVR.png Warning: I did this manually, by hand, and it is not exact; sorry for near-illegible axis labels (large ticks on top graph are the start of years). For giggles, for gold: http://i.imgur.com/y7...
by lack_ey
Tue May 30, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is CAPE 10 Correlated with Corporate Profits?
Replies: 4
Views: 286

Re: Is CAPE 10 Correlated with Corporate Profits?

If profit margins are higher, why should this increase valuation ratios? Maybe I'm missing something obvious but I don't even see the motivating intuition. That might explain earnings being up, not the ratio of price to earnings. Or I guess if margins spike up then PE10 might be high relative to PE1...
by lack_ey
Mon May 29, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real Estate Percentage in VG Major Index Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 457

Re: Real Estate Percentage in VG Major Index Funds

Vanguard portfolio composition? If you mean the online account tools at Vanguard, those are wrong all the time about a lot of things. The share of real estate is a little larger in total stock than the S&P 500 and is definitely not zero. Clearly if there is real estate in the S&P 500 and the...
by lack_ey
Sun May 28, 2017 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any BH use Coinbase?
Replies: 21
Views: 1658

Re: Any BH use Coinbase?

Coinbase is probably the most regulated place to buy bitcoins right now, but don't keep your coins on an exchange . Why is it a bad idea to keep bitcoins at Coinbase or any other exchange? If not there, where else would you recommend keeping bitcoin? You don't want to keep anything at an exchange, ...
by lack_ey
Fri May 26, 2017 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index's Holding Cash? Why?
Replies: 7
Views: 890

Re: Index's Holding Cash? Why?

I don't really trust Morningstar to get all the positions right for a more complicated fund. There have been numerous errors in the past. It's hard to automatically code all the information correctly. For PIMCO Total Return, if you want to know the exposures, check their website. The fund manager ha...
by lack_ey
Fri May 26, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is international a momentum investment?
Replies: 16
Views: 1457

Re: Is international a momentum investment?

Threshold aside, I mean that there can be nasty issues of very non-normal error terms, a lot of key assumptions being violated on the common tests, and all that. Need to be careful. It's common for the research papers in the field to use heteroskedasticity-adjusted something or other, among other th...
by lack_ey
Fri May 26, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 7310

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

I know this is different from stocks in some key ways but you can see the monthly dividend growing in some bond funds and ETFs. Just a visual aid amidst the barren walls of text here. http://i.imgur.com/zXeuagt.png Obviously with a stock the price can move more as news and preferences change. Short-...

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