Search found 5596 matches

by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u say?
Replies: 45
Views: 1923

Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

From July 1926 through the end of August 2017, the US stock market was up on 55.0% of trading days. That according to Ken French data. I just added together Mkt-Rf and Rf together and compared that with zero for each day and counted occurrences. It drops to 53.9% if you look at Mkt-Rf (return above ...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 17
Views: 954

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

No, I'm not. But nobody else with the money and resources is coming anywhere close. I'm just interested, to begin with, in knowing what kind of odds are against them doing it by chance alone. To be able to exploit inefficiencies to the extent that they do (clearly mostly as a result of skill), I co...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New for VANGUARD!
Replies: 16
Views: 1482

Re: New for VANGUARD!

Previous thread, still active: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=224317&newpost=3577751 Is it the Wellington and Wellesley names that are the attraction? What if they were the Smith and Jones funds? As of now, they are just two new funds with familiar names with no holdings or hi...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 17
Views: 954

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

Which market? They're not so much trading stocks there, investing in the same universe as say active equity mutual funds. Obviously their trading record on any set of potential securities and derivatives is amazing and so far removed from any chance-based explanation (though apparently still some do...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 67
Views: 6242

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

As noted many times above, you completely changed the meaning, so I think you should change the title to more accurately reflect the title. They expect (i.e., they could be wrong, or this is just some idea of what is more likely to happen) that there could be (not that there will be, necessarily) a ...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1503

Re: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?

That is an exaggeration. Long bonds are certainly not without risk but the risk is not as much as that of stocks. An example of risk estimates for asset classes can be found here: https://portfoliosolutions.com/latest-learnings/blog/30-year-risk-and-return-forecast-2016 High yield corporates really...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 68
Views: 11231

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Interesting that the equity managers listed are none of the named managers for the domestic funds. The domestic funds are kind of soft closed, right? I don't think that's over the fixed income side getting too large to handle. Wellington might be. I didn't think Wellesley was. Dividend Growth is cl...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Giving Less in Dividends than Competitors?
Replies: 13
Views: 1950

Re: Vanguard Giving Less in Dividends than Competitors?

For what it's worth, you're both wrong in a sense: Vanguard does not have the lowest fees in a lot of categories. iShares (Blackrock), Charles Schwab, and SPDRs (State Street) undercut them slightly in a number of funds. In fact, some of the iShares ETFs listed are not the cheapest they have in thos...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State Street Debuts Low Cost ETFs [mostly rebranding old ones and cutting ERs]
Replies: 2
Views: 333

State Street Debuts Low Cost ETFs [mostly rebranding old ones and cutting ERs]

The fee wars continue. Product page (click the "low cost core" category): https://www.spdrs.com/product/ News article: http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/state-street-debuts-low-cost-etfs?nopaging=1 This morning, State Street launched a dramatic new salvo in the fee war with its SPDR Port...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 28
Views: 1323

Re: Currency risk?

... Another weirdness is that the widely-recommended percentages for international have done nothing but go up, up, up and there is very little obvious to explain why this should be so --why Burton Malkiel should have recommended that 16% of stocks be international in 1990 and 50% e international n...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VITAX ( vanguard tech fund )
Replies: 9
Views: 476

Re: VITAX ( vanguard tech fund )

What specifically are your trying to target and why? How long do you expect to hold, and when might you sell and under which conditions and triggers? How do you evaluate whether this was a success or failure? Do you specifically want the US tech sector as defined under the index or do you want somet...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18143

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

What you want from alternatives is at least bond-like returns with stock-like risk on the residual exposure you can't get from stocks and bonds, in a way that can plausibly work across different conditions. That is, the performance of the remainder once you subtract out the market beta and so on. So...
by lack_ey
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 68
Views: 11231

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

tj wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:00 pm
Interesting that the equity managers listed are none of the named managers for the domestic funds.
The domestic funds are kind of soft closed, right? I don't think that's over the fixed income side getting too large to handle.
by lack_ey
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3131

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

There are a number of different ways that people think about diversification. Under some of these, with a number of assumptions it follows that the total market is more diversified than subsets or reweightings of the total market. Under others, that's not necessarily the case. But the reasons for th...
by lack_ey
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing matter for long term investing?
Replies: 11
Views: 1056

Re: Does market timing matter for long term investing?

Of course it matters. The problem is not knowing ahead of time in which direction (positively or negatively) it will matter, and coming up with a plan for execution of your strategy and then actually following through. Most people are bad at this, or at least not any good. I wouldn't be better. Hist...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 16
Views: 862

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

Thanks, lack_ey. What about my surmise that the VIX index itself has zero expected return in over the long run? Am I right about that? Um... I'm not confident in saying zero, but that would be the natural and reasonable starting point. The VIX index is just a statistic computed on S&P 500 options p...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 16
Views: 862

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

There's not any Vanguard product you could use for this purpose. FWIW this is one of those market timing kinds of hot tips. Historically this has been a very losing strategy. Think of it as akin to a type of pseudo insurance or hedging of the underlying. Usually if not given further clarification, p...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy long term bonds Now?
Replies: 33
Views: 2758

Re: Why would anyone buy long term bonds?

Maybe you think with demographic trends, productivity growth slowing, etc. we get long-term secular stagnation except worse than what a lot of people are thinking, and rates are not going any higher, and you have a long investing time horizon and don't need to spend the money any time soon, so you c...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Question
Replies: 3
Views: 381

Re: Mutual Fund Question

This is not something I've looked at before, but apparently there's an ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY). Top holdings Paypal, Mastercard, Fidelity National Information Services, American Express, Fiserv, Discover. The catch is that the ER is 0.75%. I guess with some of these narrow niches smal...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18143

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

What really counts is the performance ex-market. So if you subtract out the market beta of the stocks, what does that residual performance look like and what might it look like going forward? It could be a better deal in the end; I haven't looked in that carefully and I imagine it's difficult with t...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Treasury Zero's Liquid?
Replies: 6
Views: 442

Re: Are Treasury Zero's Liquid?

Oh yeah, Treasury zeroes are liquid. But no, not as liquid as the regular Treasuries. Just as one measure and indication, you might see spreads more like 15 bp rather than 2 bp. There's more of a market in the regular kind.
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18143

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

The returns are stocklike because they're traded as stocks, and people buy and sell with other stocks, and it can move as investor expectations for what valuations and multiples should look like change. https://hostimg.co/images/2017/10/11/Untitled.png http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18143

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

The costs are the big issue here. You pay 2% for something you can get from some of the best insurance risk managers in the world for a few basis points. These managers are well known & have long track records. They include Warren Buffet & Ajit Jain at Berkshire, the Markel brothers at Markel and P...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2086

Re: Very confused by Bonds

... The Treasury regularly issues new bonds/notes/bills. There's an auction process to determine the exact price, the mechanics of which are not that relevant for your purposes. You can very readily also buy bonds off the secondary market (i.e. from somebody else, effectively, so not a new issue wh...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 570

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

They're intended to be a one-size-fits-all investing solution potentially suitable for a range of retirement investors to be held for the long term, through accumulation and decumulation. It's not really about wealth maximization, and there are ancillary concerns about plan complexity (and the poten...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $200K cash to stock funds
Replies: 8
Views: 627

Re: Invest $200K cash to stock funds

I never heard of a fund requiring a $100,000 minimum investment. They must have a class of shares that has lower minimums, no? There are some funds with higher listed minimums than that for the most accessible share class. Vanguard actually has one (the equity market neutral fund), and others do as...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

...The traditional academic literature on the value factor does the book-to-market sort—or other metrics—over the market minus financials and utilities... I've just looked at Kenneth R. French's website, the page entitled Description of Fama/French Factors , and I do not see either of the words "fi...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

It's mostly a matter of convention. The traditional academic literature on the value factor does the book-to-market sort—or other metrics—over the market minus financials and utilities. So no financials included on either side (high or low value). The thinking is that particularly with financials th...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2086

Re: Very confused by Bonds

Is there any real difference in a CD and Bond? A brokered CD that you can buy or sell is pretty much just a specific type of bond with government backing of par value via FDIC insurance (under per-person-and-institution insurance limits). A direct CD with a bank is a bit different in the sense that...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2086

Re: Very confused by Bonds

1) I read about US Treasury Bills and follow the link to TreasuryDirect and their seems to be noticeable return rates I can grasp onto and they start talking about buy "at auction"! Oh My, seems like too much. These seem to be short term (0-1 YR). 2) I read about Treasury Notes (1-10 Years) seems c...
by lack_ey
Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Update on AQR fund access
Replies: 5
Views: 878

Re: Update on AQR fund access

As one reference I just logged in to my brokerage link account and I am not able to buy qspix AQR Style Premia is closed to new investors. It's readily possible to have access to other funds but not that one. I think there should be a number of fee-only advisors offering access to AQR funds (fewer ...
by lack_ey
Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Morningstar Rating American Funds VS Fidelity Total Market Index
Replies: 3
Views: 321

Re: Morningstar Rating American Funds VS Fidelity Total Market Index

It's a quantitative measure of past return relative to risk as judged by downside and realized volatility over 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year lookback windows, relative to funds in the peer group. These funds do not share peer groups. American Funds New Perspective gets 5 stars for performance relative...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8064

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

I won't say never, but now wouldn't be the time. Though really, you can never get rid of some kind of risk exposure. And 0% stocks is not what the least risky allocation would look like generally, especially with longer timeframes. That said, irrespective of valuations and what you think might happe...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGTSX vs VDVIX / VEIEX blend
Replies: 7
Views: 500

Re: VGTSX vs VDVIX / VEIEX blend

VGTSX - Vanguard Total International Index VDVIX - Vanguard Developed Markets Index VEIEX - Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Okay, I did not know the investor shares ticker symbols for the latter two. Checking just for my own curiosity, the AUM in that share class is a lot lower than the AUM for admi...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are international bond yields so low? Or put another way, why are US bond yields so high?
Replies: 6
Views: 516

Re: Why are international bond yields so low? Or put another way, why are US bond yields so high?

You're missing the hedge return in the international bond fund. When you hedge let's say Euros to USD with 1-month forward contracts like the fund does, you agree to get X dollars for Y Euros in a month. That ratio of X/Y is not the current exchange rate (spot). If you think about it, short-term int...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEU Asset Allocation - "Other 8.90%" ?
Replies: 3
Views: 343

Re: VEU Asset Allocation - "Other 8.90%" ?

I think we determined that it meant that 8.90% of the securities were lent out under the condition that whoever they were lent to will pay the fund a little bit extra plus the actual return of the securities themselves. Securities lending doesn't explain why the "other" figure is 0% for VTI (total ...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEU Asset Allocation - "Other 8.90%" ?
Replies: 3
Views: 343

Re: VEU Asset Allocation - "Other 8.90%" ?

It means that some holdings from the snapshot Morningstar has are probably being miscoded somehow. Ask them if you want to know the mechanics of the discrepancy.

If you check the annual report, semiannual report, or other listings of fund holdings, you don't see this much actual "other."
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor willing to make second bet with Buffett
Replies: 6
Views: 964

Re: Investor willing to make second bet with Buffett

Yusko's comment about being at the presumed top of the market cycle as if that's a critical discriminator of the outcome is amusing. Seide's bet with Buffet was at an actual top of a market cycle. The timing could not have been much worse for Buffet. What really counts here is starting vs. ending v...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratios and 10 year yields
Replies: 2
Views: 314

Re: P/E Ratios and 10 year yields

It's an old concept that is historically not that well grounded in trading patterns, valuations, and subsequent return. Also, this formulation ignores inflation, which is probably wrong (stocks are at least in theory real assets, with earnings growing in nominal dollars terms even without any actual...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWEHX High-Yield Corporate bond
Replies: 26
Views: 1572

Re: VWEHX High-Yield Corporate bond

So it tracks the credit spread between treasury rates and BBB bonds, but that credit spread includes the credit spread between treasury rates and investment grade bonds. Granted, the spread between treasuries and investment grade bonds will be less than the spread between treasuries and BBB bonds, ...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3154

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

ok, I'll try to analyse the emotions that got me here (this post however started more as a theoretical question on something that puzzled me - that's why I posted it in this General section). With due respect I must say once again that the problem I have with bonds in the EU is not that they don't ...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Eagle Overseas (SGOVX) Cash Position?
Replies: 3
Views: 233

Re: First Eagle Overseas (SGOVX) Cash Position?

Interestingly enough, this fund holds a significant portion of gold too. The mandate is pretty broad to keep cash or invest outside stocks, with a strategy focused on bottom-up fundamentals investing for stock picking as well as downside protection relative to a benchmark. In practice you will see c...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund vs ETF prices
Replies: 15
Views: 1181

Re: Mutual fund vs ETF prices

Sure, fund share price is pretty arbitrary as you can transact in dollars and fractional shares. They could do something else if they wanted. But the mutual fund share price can't be pegged exactly to the ETF price because the latter is based on fund transactions and out of the fund company's contro...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund vs ETF prices
Replies: 15
Views: 1181

Re: Mutual fund vs ETF prices

It's actually not unusual for different mutual fund share classes to have more widely varying share prices. e.g. Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTMGX) - $13.93 Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Investor Shares (VDVIX) - $10.78 It's just a matter of what starting value they...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4-fund portfolio using Institution funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 743

Re: 4-fund portfolio using Institution funds?

Extended market (total market ex-S&P 500) is more like 20% of the total, not 25%. So you could use 40% and 10% for VINIX and VIEIX respectively. That's frankly not all that much different from just using 50% VINIX and ignoring the fact that the S&P 500 is not the US stock market. Some people prefer ...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?
Replies: 15
Views: 2191

Re: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?

First, I think the Sharpe ratios tell a story. The risk-adjusted return on the longer-term bonds isn't as good. Second, having lived through the inflation of the late seventies and eighties, I am nervous enough about tying my money up for ten years, but twenty or thirty is just too long. In theory ...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Risk Endures
Replies: 2
Views: 353

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Risk Endures

From my understanding, the risk shows up at exactly the same time that equity risk shows up, but the equity Variance risk premium does not get hurt as badly as equities do, You have to define what you mean by the variance risk premium a bit more carefully to make statements about relative return, v...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long a track record should a new fund have before I invest?
Replies: 13
Views: 789

Re: How long a track record should a new fund have before I invest?

Confidence in terms of what? Staying open? Investment performance relative to peers or a benchmark? If the former it depends a lot on the fund company as well, and other external factors. If the latter, you should never be confident, but generally you should evaluate based on managers (including rec...
by lack_ey
Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 1934

Re: Alternate investment strategies

Part of the discrepancy is simply that the simple benchmark of public equities and fixed income did well the last ten years, above a 50 percentile kind of outcome, especially as measured by return above the risk-free rate (and more so if you consider starting equity valuations). Everything else will...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4660

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

I'm no expert, but here's my take: there's no way they're accounting for full uncertainty in the estimates. The predictive power of PE10 isn't good enough to recommend all-or-nothing kind of predictions. They use measures besides just PE10 generally (though a number of them are related and none are...