Search found 5437 matches

by lack_ey
Sun Aug 20, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin Cash (BCC) - Best Wallet, Exchange, etc.
Replies: 2
Views: 258

Re: Bitcoin Cash (BCC) - Best Wallet, Exchange, etc.

I'm not familiar with all the wallets but Electron Cash is a fork of Electrum, which was fairly popular for old Bitcoin. Should be usable enough. There are a number of others, though, and everything is relatively new when it comes to BCC support obviously so beware. As for an exchange, there are man...
by lack_ey
Sat Aug 19, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis
Replies: 25
Views: 1987

Re: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis

a) If interest rates are 1%, the economy is doing poorly and stocks are low (both from a fundamentals - earnings perspective and from a "people are scared and keeping their money under their pillows" perspective). Thus, any increase in rates likely means that the economy is improving (inflation is ...
by lack_ey
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are vanilla index funds equally weighted by ownership stake?
Replies: 1
Views: 217

Re: Are vanilla index funds equally weighted by ownership stake?

What you're describing ends up as market capitalization weighting (which is what is used and the more common term), so mostly yes. Total shares x value of each share is the value of the company. Alternatively you can think of this as owning a proportional slice of all of the stocks available, where ...
by lack_ey
Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here is a criticisim of active management I don't get
Replies: 24
Views: 2095

Re: Here isa criticisim of active management I don't get

They shouldn't get credit for incidental alpha over a benchmark owing to a persistent mismatch of typical exposures happening to cyclically swing in their favor. That's an issue of benchmarking or interpreting results. But sure, if a manager makes a conscious market timing / allocation decision that...
by lack_ey
Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IVLU for international value exposure [iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value]
Replies: 11
Views: 916

Re: IVLU for international value exposure

FNDF (Schwab Fundamental International Large Co. Index ETF) is a little cheaper yet at 0.25% with much higher AUM and trading than IVLU but uses different value criteria for weighting* and is broader, owning the large-to-kinda-mid market, so the exposure is significantly diluted. I disagree with th...
by lack_ey
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IVLU for international value exposure [iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value]
Replies: 11
Views: 916

Re: IVLU for international value exposure

Good call on IVLU but it is still a smaller fund unfortunately, though at around $100M AUM it's viable. FNDF (Schwab Fundamental International Large Co. Index ETF) is a little cheaper yet at 0.25% with much higher AUM and trading than IVLU but uses different value criteria for weighting* and is broa...
by lack_ey
Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Media storage solutions
Replies: 16
Views: 745

Re: Media storage solutions

RAID setups for redundancy are more for critical work where you can't have downtime even if a drive fails, where what you're accessing at the moment needs to keep being accessible while you sort things out. A NAS is for multiple systems to be able to have access to the data. Though really, I think t...
by lack_ey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis
Replies: 25
Views: 1987

Re: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis

I understand that the bond market is very very efficient. I could see this occurring in two ways: 1. People still bid a certain price that is not necessarily the "present value" price calculated via http://www.free-online-calculator-use.com/bond-value-calculator.html and negotiate with a seller. 2....
by lack_ey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis
Replies: 25
Views: 1987

Re: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis

Thank you for your clarification. I guess when I said "interest rates" I actually meant the Federal Funds Rate, as my understanding is that when THOSE rates rise, bonds react. But I suppose there are other reasons for the rates (yields) on bonds that make up the referenced fund to go up or down. If...
by lack_ey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management
Replies: 16
Views: 847

Re: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management

FWIW surveys of institutional investors show a high percentage, like around half it was I think (more?), believe in market timing as a form of risk mitigation. It's not just investment advisors for individuals. Obviously that doesn't mean they're actually successful with it, with or without a lot of...
by lack_ey
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis
Replies: 25
Views: 1987

Re: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis

Portfolio theory would suggest that if you have a special low-risk option for say 3.25% (with a premium over T-bills at let's say 3% or lower) and a bond index fund has a yield of 3.5%, you don't switch to the bond index fund. Even supposing you want higher than 3.25% from fixed income, you're bette...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?
Replies: 34
Views: 2222

Re: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?

In other words, what does the PRICE of the stock you own (which EMH talks about) have to do with the PROPORTION of that stock that makes up your portfolio? In ideal terms, market cap-weighted indexes automatically reflect the consensus [emph added] of all global investors’ estimates of each company...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis
Replies: 25
Views: 1987

Re: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis

Re your sanity check - You'll note that the $Y stays the same between the two calculations - that is how they are related. $Y = $X * (1.04)^8.3 $Z * (1.05)^8.3 = $Y Whoops, sorry, I misread $Y at the end for $X. Or wasn't paying attention, really. In any case, you need to adjust for when the paymen...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis
Replies: 25
Views: 1987

Re: Help with my understanding of bond funds & efficient market hypothesis

Criterion to switch to INTFUND: if B% > 3% AND willing to hold for 8.3 years (average effective maturity), then move 100% FRATE into INTFUND That is reasonable but not strictly a superior strategy, unlike the first example. You could readily make less money in INTFUND for any holding period, be it ...
by lack_ey
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF liquidity for long term investors
Replies: 2
Views: 347

Re: ETF liquidity for long term investors

At the fund/ETF level, the spread and the premium/discount to NAV are two different things. Both can deviate more from typical behavior in times of market stress. Sometimes the spread can be small yet be non-trivially away from NAV. In fact, many corporate bond ETFs trade at a slight premium on aver...
by lack_ey
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BITCOIN: Any experience sending USD from Coinbase to BofA?
Replies: 4
Views: 480

Re: BITCOIN: Any experience sending USD from Coinbase to BofA?

It's just a normal ACH transfer, one of millions of transactions every day handling tens of billions of dollars. Same system as perhaps used to transfer your money in or between other institutions. This part of the process has nothing to do with bitcoin.
by lack_ey
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited Bond - Should I sell?
Replies: 13
Views: 1159

Re: Inherited Bond - Should I sell?

FWIW this bond may be called well before 2038, very possibly as soon as December 2021 considering the current premium and the coupon rate. So even if you hold on it may not be for the long term.
by lack_ey
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what was the actual return of BND last year?
Replies: 19
Views: 1780

Re: what was the actual return of BND last year?

BND NAV return was 2.57% for 2016 per Morningstar's data. It's clear from the post what is meant is in the last year (last twelve months), not 2016, as implied by the title. Actual return depends on the exact distributions and reinvestment. You can get the total return including reinvestment at Mor...
by lack_ey
Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 vs Approximate TSM in 401k
Replies: 9
Views: 853

Re: S&P 500 vs Approximate TSM in 401k

S&P 500 is close enough for most purposes. If you want total stock exposure, use the extended market fund in the IRAs to match the S&P 500 here ($1 in extended market for every $4 in S&P 500 is very close). That way you actually have the right exposure (no double-owning stocks and missing some other...
by lack_ey
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active vs. Passive Bond Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 656

Re: Active vs. Passive Bond Fund

Fidelity Total Bond hasn't really done much considering its exposures, other than claw back a decent chunk of the ER. It's gotten higher returns through more credit risk, including high yield. You could have replicated most of what it has done through cheaper funds and come out a little better. Noth...
by lack_ey
Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)
Replies: 4
Views: 427

Re: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)

Long Treasury bonds and stocks have been convincingly negatively correlated the last decade and a half, even ignoring the financial crisis (not just the flight-to-safety effect). That's not really been historically typical—longer-term averages are closer to zero, and you can't count on getting a boo...
by lack_ey
Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Int'l Stock Index - how to track?
Replies: 15
Views: 1180

Re: Total Int'l Stock Index - how to track?

Price changes of VXUS and similar ETFs (IXUS, VEU, ACWX) should give you an idea of what the market thinks about how those stocks are doing in USD terms since the previous close. However, that is not that great a match for the Vanguard mutual fund or equivalently the NAV (rather than price) of the E...
by lack_ey
Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Falls Short With Bonds Too
Replies: 13
Views: 2117

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Falls Short With Bonds Too

For reference there have been a lot of previous threads about PIMCO Income, including https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=224300 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=206375 There are a lot of contributing pieces behind the exceptional return since inception and since the fin...
by lack_ey
Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 55
Views: 4817

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

I think I'd rather just hold Treasuries myself if that's the exposure I wanted, but okay. There's definitely a market for this stuff. That's interesting. You would do that even if you wanted to maintain a similar duration bond portfolio, for a small portion of your portfolio (I imagine you would us...
by lack_ey
Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 55
Views: 4817

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

I think I'd rather just hold Treasuries myself if that's the exposure I wanted, but okay. There's definitely a market for this stuff.
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Post from AQR's Cliff Asness
Replies: 5
Views: 1435

Re: Another Great Post from AQR's Cliff Asness

In other words, "please don't run away from us and deplete our AUM/profits stay disciplined and keep reasonable expectations." Same message as from most asset managers. Though still good advice. btw one idea that comes up a lot generally but is refuted here and useful to repeat: In general, and not ...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MUB / Bonds
Replies: 12
Views: 673

Re: MUB / Bonds

Could be worse than that, given the convexity. In any case, even without accounting for that, the duration is a bit high for something in the 2 year holding period range. Safer would be SPDR Nuveen Barclays Short Term Municipal Bond ETF (SHM), which keeps a duration under 3 and sticks with AA- and h...
by lack_ey
Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4643

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

There's also a vast amount of money in alts these days. Hedge fund AUM is above $3 trillion, though a lot of them just have substantial long positions in traditional assets.

More relevantly here, vol trading (short side, selling) as part of institutional portfolios and other structures is old news.
by lack_ey
Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor crowding
Replies: 19
Views: 1447

Re: Factor crowding

I wonder what gets counted as smart beta there and if it's even accurate. Some of that was into low vol products for sure, or some other things. Because you reference small value with respect to the US market, for reference, unfortunately not quite apples-to-apples (click for larger size), from JP M...
by lack_ey
Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4643

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

A lot of this thread is discussing a very narrow, specific trade on volatility for the stock market. The VIX products are too narrow and have their issues. The idea in the article and the papers is to do this for a lot of different assets, hence something like 1987 not being as big a problem. And of...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4643

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

Well, the thing is that the article is not about any particular fund, just a class of investing strategies. It's even broader than for example a type of fund/structure like equity market neutral, where already you're looking at a broad range of potential risk levels—some funds may be sector neutral,...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4643

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

Okay, a couple of questions here. If you invested in such a fund, what would be your expectations of its performance? How do you expect for it to react in a true market crisis? Does this fund short? Does the fund use leverage? Does this fund use put options on the market? In other words, how does t...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4643

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

Even to the extent that the downside shows up at the wrong time (and there are plenty of non-equity markets to do this in), I think this is still useful. The issue is in implementation and getting access. This is all pretty obvious and something I'd invest in if it were readily available and not too...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO versus IEMG
Replies: 5
Views: 511

Re: VWO versus IEMG

1% annual difference over which period? As far as I can tell by the charts, it's mostly just the 4% difference this year. iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) has South Korea and some US-listed but Cayman/other incorporated Chinese stocks like Alibaba and Baidu. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Marke...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?
Replies: 44
Views: 1787

Re: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?

Do expense ratios in general count the cost to borrow money to lever up? Not with the methods typically used by leveraged ETFs as in your example, and not with the PIMCO fund (the 0.79% quoted before is 0.54% management fees and 0.25% 12b-1). If the leverage is via short sales then sometimes the co...
by lack_ey
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?
Replies: 44
Views: 1787

Re: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?

About the risk. In another thread, someone mentioned that PONDX had equity-like risk, as it was -5% in 2008 when stocks tanked. Since Total Bond was +5% for 2008, then I guess you could call -5% for the year "equity-like" risk, meaning more like stocks than bonds. Isn't the risk in this k...
by lack_ey
Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum
Replies: 7
Views: 754

Re: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum

matjen, which is closer to your personal view? a) This means MTUM is good, because it's all about the moolah, the spondulix, the Benjamins. b) This means MTUM is bad, because it's not doing what it's supposed to do. I'm not a matjen but IMHO this is an index fund following an index, where clearly t...
by lack_ey
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8387

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

For some reason there are a lot of posts about REIT valuations, current status and market behavior, etc., but the article is about longer-term historical behavior. Current valuations and the market timing angle (much less market efficiency given current interest rates) have little to do with observe...
by lack_ey
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015
Replies: 12
Views: 1052

Re: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015

You should probably look at net buybacks, not gross, right? Though I don't think that would really make a difference for what you're looking at, in determining how to segment history. I wonder about regressing 1-year (next year) GDP growth with stock returns, though. In fact the R^2 is already highe...
by lack_ey
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8387

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Larry's articles tend to be a little bit above my level of financial education, so again here, I'm not clear why I should care whether REIT's fit a specific technical definition of an asset class - or even why being able to replicate them with a mix of two existing asset classes (heavily tilted) is...
by lack_ey
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8387

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Tilting is just active management where you as the overall portfolio manager are making broad decisions about portfolio composition, rather than delegating the decision to traditional active managers. I've heard this before and disagree. Active management is generally taken to mean deviating from a...
by lack_ey
Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8387

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

This reflects a change of heart. REITs were once a "must have" asset class by the advocates of factor tilting. What happened is that all of the yield chasing put REIT valuations out of sight, that is, they no longer represent value. There was also rethinking about commodities, once recomm...
by lack_ey
Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Market mutual fund or ETF?
Replies: 3
Views: 308

Re: Total Market mutual fund or ETF?

No, not really. She can also buy the incredibly similar Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (SCHB) commission free at Schwab, or a number of other choices available as well. Or a similar mutual fund that's actually available such as Schwab Total Stock Market Index (SWTSX), though this w...
by lack_ey
Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Major Companies are Not Included in Standard Vanguard Index Funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1651

Re: What Major Companies are Not Included in Standard Vanguard Index Funds?

There are a lot of major companies that are privately held and not available on the stock markets. The investable indexes, index funds, etc. won't have these. Alibaba, Baidu, and about a dozen other US-listed and foreign-domiciled Chinese companies (i.e. actually primarily operating in China) with u...
by lack_ey
Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9524

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

If we have an idea that tall people are better at basketball on average (let's say it's statistically significant), but then some paper notes that height doesn't explain basketball performance much after you account for wingspan and running speed*, I think it would be highly misleading to say that w...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: transaction costs VTI vs VTSMX
Replies: 13
Views: 840

Re: transaction costs VTI vs VTSMX

I read where the Schwab total stock ETF, SCHB is more tax efficient than the Schwab total stock index fund. In general, are the ETFs more tax efficient in terms of how the distributions are handled as compared to funds, whether Vanguard or Schwab or other? The ETFs are generally more tax efficient ...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate current value of a percentage of VTSAX shares?
Replies: 3
Views: 228

Re: How to calculate current value of a percentage of VTSAX shares?

Forget your holding and just look at the total return of the fund between the relevant dates. Then check the initial value of the holding in question. If between 2010 and 2015 the fund gained 107.32% including reinvested dividends, you had 2.45 shares, and the shares were bought at $28.00, the value...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9524

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

There's plenty of risk but the probable downside is not nearly as large as you always seem to imply. Thanks lack_ey. There is actually one risk i forgot to mention. The fund is actively managed. ... m "The Fund is actively managed and the Fund’s exposures to Styles and Asset Groups will vary b...
by lack_ey
Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9524

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

The correlations are not stable. certainly not stable enough to make a leveraged bet on it like QSPIX does- the idea of making a leveraged bet on something that (unleveraged) can lose 82% in a year is insane IMHO. QSPIX is about 1/3 CS MOM and it is scaled for volatility and it has MOM outside of e...
by lack_ey
Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Commodities ETFs
Replies: 35
Views: 1690

Re: New Commodities ETFs

They're all still new and have low AUM and thin trading, so while the ER advantage is nice over many of the older products, it would take some time to recoup the spreads. It's possible the funds need to close eventually out of lack of interest. These four funds are actually structured as funds and n...