Search found 5221 matches

by lack_ey
Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"
Replies: 36
Views: 3472

Re: "ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"

This argument has never made any sense to me. If anything, as more people passively index, the potential to gain from active management increases because there are fewer active agents keeping the market efficient... Or maybe it's the other way around, with fewer active agents trading, the market is...
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"
Replies: 36
Views: 3472

Re: "ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"

Yeah, FPA is known for being pretty contrarian and rather unconvinced by current asset pricing. When your market timing has been that wrong for that long, of course you blame others for all their irrationality. It's not your fault, right? (Of course, they've had plenty of success in the past as well...
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I don't want to wait till I'm 59.5
Replies: 28
Views: 3967

Re: "I don't want to wait till I'm 59.5

Setting aside the fact that most would need a whole lot of all kinds of assets to be retiring at that point anyway, remember that Roth IRA contributions can be withdrawn whenever, and there's a provision for withdrawing substantially equal periodic payments from retirement accounts without penalty b...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversifying same-index ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 315

Re: Diversifying same-index ETFs

1. So remote that it is not worth considering. You aren't investing in Fidelity; Fidelity just holds the assets. It is not comparable to Enron where the company's business became worthless. No no no. The fund manager (Fidelity) does not hold the assets. A 3rd-party custodian does, and it's all high...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on Vanguard Total Stock Market
Replies: 10
Views: 2176

Re: Article on Vanguard Total Stock Market

Do a search on Paul Merriman. Same advice over and over again. (This is not a critique on the validity or lack thereof.)

Or if you'd rather not read specifically his recommendations, check value and size here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7353
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article Bloomberg--BlackRock Forges Two-Tiered ETF Strategy to Fend Off Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 878

Re: Article Bloomberg--BlackRock Forges Two-Tiered ETF Strategy to Fend Off Vanguard

What he didn’t mention was that prices weren’t changing on most of BlackRock’s ETF assets -- where fees remain far higher for institutional buyers who crave easy-to-trade securities. The discounts are aimed at retail customers and financial advisers who mostly seek cheap funds. Why can't the instit...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does the settlement fund earn interest
Replies: 3
Views: 288

Re: Does the settlement fund earn interest

What do you mean by collect? Are you intending to refer to the fund itself or (more relevantly) just your position in that fund? You earn interest on holdings in a settlement fund in general, if that's what you're asking. It should get paid out effectively into your account... back into the settleme...
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very minor and possibly silly question about MMF exchange in tIRA
Replies: 14
Views: 416

Re: Very minor and possibly silly question about MMF exchange in tIRA

Minimum additional investment in the fund is $1 I think. At least, that's what I see on the website.
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 25, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1963

Re: Bonds

Recent stock market movements are not really statistically predictive of future returns and shouldn't much factor into these kinds of decisions. Even if they did, many here are kind of philosophically opposed to this kind of reaction. It's likewise unknown whether now is a good time to buy bonds wit...
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shouldn't one's "number" be indexed to the current PE ratio?
Replies: 20
Views: 1386

Re: Shouldn't one's "number" be indexed to the current PE ratio?

In a broad sense, sure. The "number" (current assets, or an asset target) needs to be paired with an understanding of future investment returns to determine the range of spending that it likely affords. If risk assets are cheaper then you can probably spend more relative to the "numbe...
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re:NYT article - [Future of] Vanguard v. Everyone else
Replies: 5
Views: 1465

Re: Re:NYT article - Vanguard v. Everyone else

There's a lot of inertia, a lot of money invested on behalf of people who don't have the interest (and confidence, time) to more carefully scrutinize these things, incentives from some of the advisory community and financial media to push certain products, and finally plenty of investors who believe...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

Well, it was mostly just semantics, it turned out, and I think I'm done here!

Have fun with your continued investment in the land of managed futures.
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ER for mutual funds < ER for ETF?
Replies: 11
Views: 1105

Re: Are ER for mutual funds < ER for ETF?

Actually, I haven't figured out how to insert an image (jpg). I click Reply/Img and then try to paste the image between the BBCodes and "paste" is greyed out. I looked at the FAQ and it just says "use Img BBCode.." What's the secret -- or where is there more help? Post the image...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

To the extent that value premiums result in significantly higher Sharpe ratios than other betas over long periods, that is ex post alpha as it implies mispricing. Let's say the market has a Sharpe of 0.3 over the next 10 years. Value stocks with a Sharpe of 0.31, from both higher vol and return. Do...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

The idea of smart beta is fraudulent. There is no such thing. There are fair market returns to assets (betas) and there are returns to investment strategies (alphas). No in between. Momentum of any sort is definitely is alpha. It is not an asset. And the evidence of it being arb'd are the negative ...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

Nedsaid, what I was saying about Value's historically high Sharpe is that it has attracted a lot of capital since it has performed too well given its volatility in the past. As prices are bid up, expected returns should fall, and should at least place its go forward Sharpe more in line with other a...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SPY vs. VTI vs. VOO
Replies: 10
Views: 613

Re: SPY vs. VTI vs. VOO

VTI is not a commission free ETF on Ameritrade but IVV is, do you recommend that since it's commission free? EDIT: I take it back, I see it now, is one recommended over the other? If you have no strong feelings about the stocks in the S&P 500 relative to the other US stocks available (mostly sm...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar rating: S&P 5-stars, but TSM 4-stars?
Replies: 10
Views: 1157

Re: Morningstar rating: S&P 5-stars, but TSM 4-stars?

Trailing 3-year and 5-year performance is better for the S&P 500, though 10-year is worse. The S&P 500 also had lower volatility over all three lookback periods. The difference is large enough for the S&P 500 index fund to get 5 stars in a comparison versus large blend category peers, wh...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?
Replies: 50
Views: 3568

Re: Larry Portfolio Equities: What % Each Market?

...if you want to do the same thing but only chose small/value, the logical way would be to go to the world stock index and then apply the screens for small and value across the whole index. I think something like 3% of market cap of US stock index is considered "small Value" by some meas...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

...Big reason I bought the fund was its performance in extended bear markets for equities... :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: The fund's inception was 7/16/2013. How does anyone know anything about its performance in "extended bear markets for equities?" Fund inception is 5 January 2010 for the base A...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to Hold Corporate Bonds vs. Munis, given equal after-tax yield?
Replies: 7
Views: 716

Re: Reasons to Hold Corporate Bonds vs. Munis, given equal after-tax yield?

Traditionally the ratings scales for municipal and corporate bonds are not directly comparable in terms of characteristics and risk (with the muni bonds of a given rating having notably lower default rate, higher recovery rate on default, and so on), but more recently the ratings agencies have tried...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 23, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

Barely on topic: An alternative to wanting investments that perform better during poor markets, is expecting to adapt your retirement spending to your recent portfolio value. If most of your necessary expenses are covered by steady income streams (SS, annuities, pension, bond ladders), variable wit...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1681

Re: Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund

The expense ratio is 1.6%. Not sure why anyone would want it... Just a note, this is a revised old thread, that particular comment is from 2014, and the expense ratio is down to 0.25% now. That $250,000 minimum investment would only going to cost you $625/year, instead of $4,000/year. It's no longe...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ER for mutual funds < ER for ETF?
Replies: 11
Views: 1105

Re: Are ER for mutual funds < ER for ETF?

You know you can link the page URL or upload a screenshot to an image hoster, right? Anyway, in general with respect to the three categories you mention ("Active Managed, Index Funds and ETFs"), they are not distinct so it is not obvious what you are referring to. In general index funds ca...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

That smiley face paper was the final piece to convince me to take a 5% stake in TS MOM. There is an benchmark for this asset class back to 2001. ~6% annualized with real funds. [emphasis added] Current periods like now are typical. I don't think a few more retail investors investing here will chang...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

Grap and Tarheel, I'm invested in QMHIX as well. I have a couple questions. 1. Why is TS Momentum invested in through Managed Futures rather than the investments themselves? 2. Does poor performance necessarily mean increased future expected return? With stocks, as prices go down expected returns n...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 257
Views: 13076

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Forgetting the banks, then why is the bond market so keen on owning the significantly lower returning nominal bonds, under those assumptions? Are the yields being severely depressed on the long end by short-term traders or non-price-sensitive players, with almost everybody who is in a position to c...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 257
Views: 13076

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Forgetting the banks, then why is the bond market so keen on owning the significantly lower returning nominal bonds, under those assumptions? Are the yields being severely depressed on the long end by short-term traders or non-price-sensitive players, with almost everybody who is in a position to ca...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 257
Views: 13076

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Median expectations of inflation are probably under 2.5% for the next 20 years. I saw that there has been a down-grading of inflation expectations by those who prognosticate on such things, but I wonder if predicting inflation is any more accurate than predicting interest rates or equity markets. C...
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 257
Views: 13076

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

There has yet to be a 15-year period where stocks have lost money, but it's not impossible for it to happen in the future. Based on data in our Simba backtest spreadsheet, US stocks had a cumulative real return of -5% over the 17-year period 1965-1981 (inclusive). Of course that high-inflation peri...
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blowout [poor] investment RYJUX and replace with what?
Replies: 15
Views: 1157

Re: Blowout [poor] investment RYJUX and replace with what?

Okay, so it's supposed to track before fees and costs the daily performance of long Treasury bonds. Seems to more or less be as advertised (TLT is just a long Treasury fund, not an exact mirror even on a daily scale): http://i.imgur.com/R10CoVw.png This is not the kind of investment you would expect...
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to withdraw a positive credit card balance ($2600)?
Replies: 10
Views: 972

Re: How to withdraw a positive credit card balance ($2600)?

I've had smaller amounts before as a credit ($100ish and then $5 or so), once in a similar situation and another time because I pushed a bill pay from my bank to the wrong credit card ( :oops: ). Just call and ask for a check for the balance.
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 257
Views: 13076

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

There's been sub-1% real return over 20 years before in the US multiple times, certainly a lot worse than that overseas. Median expectations of inflation are probably under 2.5% for the next 20 years. So it's far from a sure thing that stocks do better than ~3.5% nominal, just a fairly good bet. But...
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Short Term, Liquid Investments
Replies: 19
Views: 1469

Re: Best Short Term, Liquid Investments

Really appreciate all the feedback. I have looked at VCSH in the past, but it just doesn't seem to offer enough of a premium to what I am getting for the risk involved. Looking back, I obviously wish I had kept everything invested in equities, but at the time, and many times since then, we have put...
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap fund index question
Replies: 57
Views: 4154

Re: Small cap fund index question

Yeah, how do you get to 1-2% annualized return difference for the total portfolio by replacing 5% of the holdings with relatively similar things? Your substitution obviously has to do amazingly better (well into double digit excess returns per year) for it to have that kind of impact.
by lack_ey
Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Short Term, Liquid Investments
Replies: 19
Views: 1469

Re: Best Short Term, Liquid Investments

I use VCSH/VSCSX, Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Fund. I wouldn't call it the "best" fund, but it suits me. I would not be surprised by 3-5% declines in "normal" times. It wasn't around in 2008-09, so not sure what it would have done then. Maybe 10-15% decline? [emphasis add...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions for Bridgeway Capital research team
Replies: 12
Views: 980

Re: Questions for Bridgeway Capital research team

I'd like to hear some thoughts about how much they attribute historical factor returns to risk premia vs. mispricing (separately each in say value, momentum, size, quality, low vol, etc.) and how that might change in the future and how it holds up in international equity and possibly outside of equi...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor's Calculations Accurate re: VFINX v their Fund?
Replies: 13
Views: 1096

Re: Financial Advisor's Calculations Accurate re: VFINX v their Fund?

The calculation for investing in Vanguard S&P 500 for that period seems right, though the fact that they only show results through the end of 2015 doesn't particularly inspire confidence. If they ran the numbers 2000-2015, surely they have the facilities to update it through 2016, right? This se...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 4899

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

And I do wonder about something. AQMIX is a mutual fund, regulated by the Act of 1940, but--do I understand this correctly?--it's allowed to make investments in things that aren't. I don't need to understand this because I'm not investing in the fund, but if I were I would want to be sure that I di...
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1597

Re: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds

nisiprius wrote:Because the fourth line Morningstar plots is a very hard-to-see yellow

This is truly the bane of our existences as Morningstar plot users. I don't know how many times I've seen that color pop up and ruin my day. :twisted:
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1597

Re: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds

I added VFIDX (Intermediate Investment Grade) to nisiprius's graph out of curiosity on Morningstar and it shows it to have much higher returns. I cannot reproduce the graph itself on this page. That's what happens if you buy in on the tail end of a financial crisis where corporate bond prices were ...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1597

Re: Intermediate versus Short Term Bond Funds

So what are your baseline expectations for rates and what do you think the market expects? The given premise is an environment of rising rates but that's not necessarily the future we'll get. And obviously short-term rates can rise without others rising as well. Recall in the last tightening cycle o...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yield surge: Remember the real role of bonds"
Replies: 14
Views: 1873

Re: "Yield surge: Remember the real role of bonds"

I am thinking that if I look at the long term performance of the Vanguard Long Term Corporate Index ETF it is better than the intermediate term. Am I correct in thinking that if I am in it for the long term that there is a chance that I will do ok investing in that ETF? Which performance are you lo...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: alternatives/suggestions
Replies: 12
Views: 890

Re: alternatives/suggestions

Okay, with that many ticker symbols I demand you list all the fund names and expense ratios so every person looking at this thread doesn't have to spend minutes looking all of them up. That only seems right in the name of efficiency. Also the ER is important because in 401k plans these can differ fr...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yield surge: Remember the real role of bonds"
Replies: 14
Views: 1873

Re: "Yield surge: Remember the real role of bonds"

Meanwhile the 10-year Treasury yield is down about 0.3% since the peak a little over a month ago. Where's my yield surge?
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 6321

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

Well, there are people who look at backtesting, which tends to start in the 1970s. That happens to be the period in which the Bretton Woods system was collapsing, which predictably led to a prolonged period of appreciation of gold in USD, right when all sorts of other bad things were happening. So ...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PIMCO - active management outperforms for bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 1090

Re: PIMCO - active management outperforms for bonds

You can also check the SPIVA scorecard, which looks at funds vs. (frictionless, costless) benchmarks: https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2016.pdf?force_download=true One effect seen here in the two graphs is that the active bond funds on average have different characteristics...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation Decisions: LENDX, SRRIX and QSPIX
Replies: 23
Views: 1862

Re: Allocation Decisions: LENDX, SRRIX and QSPIX

In general I would say to err on the low side when it comes to alternatives, so whichever option you are contemplating on the low side is what I would suggest (option 3). You can do the analysis about potential portfolio benefit, risk/return, mixing assets, reducing reliance on the equity risk premi...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with bond fund
Replies: 8
Views: 378

Re: Help with bond fund

If by 85/15 you mean 15% in bonds, then it probably doesn't really matter. But if you want to look more closely at the details out of principle, I would suggest PIMCO Total Return over DoubleLine Total Return, or possibly both. DoubleLine is heavily concentrated in mortgage-backed bonds, especially ...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative sources of return
Replies: 11
Views: 959

Re: Alternative sources of return

I'm not seeing SCIX's low correlation to the market. It seems to track with AAXJ which is a cap weighted (beta) fund from a similar list of countries. Actually, SCIX mostly covers developed countries like Australia and Singapore, so it would make more sense to compare with PAF or VPL. On portfoliov...

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