Search found 1502 matches

by knpstr
Sun May 28, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 102
Views: 7564

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Another reason to not pay off one's mortgage is mentioned in the Safe Withdrawal Rate series at https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/05/24/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-15-sequence-of-return-risk-part2/ Are there ways to alleviate Sequence of Return Risk? But there are ways to at ...
by knpstr
Sun May 28, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Play Money for Spouse....
Replies: 82
Views: 3800

Re: Play Money for Spouse....

With your presumed finances why not simply say to her she should spend everything she makes on herself? or does she already do this and she is wanting money above this amount? DW is reasonably frugal, and wants to contribute to the family situation. She would not want to spend the entire income. Th...
by knpstr
Sun May 28, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Play Money for Spouse....
Replies: 82
Views: 3800

Re: Play Money for Spouse....

With your presumed finances why not simply say to her she should spend everything she makes on herself?

or does she already do this and she is wanting money above this amount?
by knpstr
Sun May 28, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How are my investments?
Replies: 10
Views: 727

Re: How are my investments?

From what you info you gave us, it seems fine.
by knpstr
Sat May 27, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it investor behavior that dooms Active Mutual Funds?
Replies: 28
Views: 1310

Re: Is it investor behavior that dooms Active Investing?

I don't see human emotions/behaviors changing anytime soon.
For example, countless people even on this board (that undoubtedly know better than to sell in a market crash) still fear that they'll do it.
by knpstr
Sat May 27, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: i just changed all my passwords
Replies: 30
Views: 3119

Re: i just changed all my passwords

Okay.
by knpstr
Fri May 26, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 59
Views: 4225

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:Webster's defines a speculation as...


Not responding directly to your post here. But I noticed your signature and I like the inverse of your Bernstein quote:

"The purpose of investing is not to simply avoid dying poor. The purpose is to optimize returns and make yourself rich."
by knpstr
Fri May 26, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio 100% in VTSAX for first 5 years of my career?
Replies: 18
Views: 1234

Re: Portfolio 100% in VTSAX for first 5 years of my career?

Join the club!

I'm 100% VTSAX (in my paper investments I do own rental real estate)
:beer
by knpstr
Fri May 26, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 59
Views: 4225

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

In the meantime, the best way to invest (not speculate) is to own the markets of the world. That way you're investing in the economy of the entire planet. I invest in the markets of the world. I don't know if they will rise or falter within the next 30 or 50 years. I'm gambling that they will rise....
by knpstr
Fri May 26, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 59
Views: 4225

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? Best bet and highest possible, hmm... I think it is a great bet that by locking in the average returns you'll do...
by knpstr
Fri May 26, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Septic Pumping - Did I get ripped off?
Replies: 39
Views: 2704

Re: Septic Pumping - Did I get ripped off?

$240.00 in MI - One line item charge.
by knpstr
Fri May 26, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 6676

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

Otherwise you have two different company behaviors AND two different investor behaviors... Don't forget, both companies are the same as we've found in this thread that dividends are irrelevant. Don't forget, both investor behaviors are the same. Neither buys nor sells any shares. One investor accum...
by knpstr
Fri May 26, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 6676

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

If it was profitable and paid a dividend, the value would be the dividend to owners. Owners get the profits whether they are paid as dividends or not. The stock owners have the "rights" to profits, I wouldn't say they necessarily "get" them, if retained. This taken to an extreme...
by knpstr
Thu May 25, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 6676

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

But nevertheless, having to sell your stake in a company to get your share of the earnings is not the same as controlling the earnings while maintaining your ownership. For people that need cash ongoing from their investments, say retirees, it seems like they can benefit from getting cash/returns w...
by knpstr
Thu May 25, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 6676

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

Benjamin Graham in Security Analysis: The dividend rate is seen to be important, apart from the earnings, not only because the investor naturally wants cash income from his capital but also because the earnings that are not paid out in dividends have a tendency to lose part of their effective value ...
by knpstr
Thu May 25, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help! Renters asking for radon mitigation--what do I need to do?
Replies: 18
Views: 1505

Re: Help! Renters asking for radon mitigation--what do I need to do?

Was $800 to put a system in my home. Made the sellers pay for it.

If your readings are high you may as well put one in.
Most potential buyers now days will want it anyway, whenever the day comes that you do decide to sell.
by knpstr
Thu May 25, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A gem Livesoft uncovered
Replies: 64
Views: 10359

Re: A Gem from Livesoft

No, a careful reading of my post will show I am not disputing his words, and careful readers will see I provided the full original context for those words. An even fuller reading of the 2013 letter will show he is speaking about costs and the importance of diversified low-cost investing. Nuance is ...
by knpstr
Thu May 25, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A gem Livesoft uncovered
Replies: 64
Views: 10359

Re: A Gem from Livesoft

Of course, people pushed him to ask if stock/bond index funds were enough for everyone. Here is investopedia on the topic: So you're disputing a transcript of Buffett's own words and provided an Investopedia opinion article as your source? Also, FWIW but getting off topic , Investopedia used Javier...
by knpstr
Wed May 24, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A gem Livesoft uncovered
Replies: 64
Views: 10359

Re: A Gem from Livesoft

There may be something to this Warren Buffett guy. His suggestion was 90/10 (S&P500/Short term government)should work well for the majority of investors and considers using a flexible withdrawal rate of 3% to 4%. :beer You forget the first part of Warren Buffett's advice: 1. Make at least $50 b...
by knpstr
Wed May 24, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A gem Livesoft uncovered
Replies: 64
Views: 10359

Re: A Gem from Livesoft

There may be something to this Warren Buffett guy. His suggestion was 90/10 (S&P500/Short term government)should work well for the majority of investors and considers using a flexible withdrawal rate of 3% to 4%. :beer You forget the first part of Warren Buffett's advice: 1. Make at least $50 b...
by knpstr
Wed May 24, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A gem Livesoft uncovered
Replies: 64
Views: 10359

Re: A Gem from Livesoft

Same site has chart with final value =initial value. It is probably the best discussion of withdrawal rates I have seen yet. https://earlyretirementnowdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/swr-part2-table1.png?w=809 Ahh! Good post. Interesting. If we compare a 4% SWR for a 50% stock allocation over 30...
by knpstr
Wed May 24, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:But in any event, there are individual stocks with higher dividend rates than your stock fund. So why not just pick one of those? As I pointed out, that is a lower-cost investment.


irrationality
by knpstr
Wed May 24, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

And why do you think adding cash/cash equivalents will help people sleep at night? If you truly "know nothing," you should just have your income directly deposited in a no-fee savings account, since that is the lowest cost place to keep it. Why bother with stocks at all? I don't know, ask...
by knpstr
Wed May 24, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

So to begin with, you have not attended to the point I was making, which was that investor is not choosing stocks based on volatility, but rather a portfolio based on volatility. Until you move the focus of your analysis from individual stocks to portfolios, you are not going to understand the reas...
by knpstr
Wed May 24, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all markets efficient?
Replies: 28
Views: 1421

Re: Are all markets efficient?

I only check in here once every other month or so so pardon me if this has been covered in depth. In particular I wonder if VINEX (International small caps, 0.4% expense ratio) is a good investment on the assumption that the non-US small cap market does not get near as much attention as say, the S&...
by knpstr
Tue May 23, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: i am my own "guy," but not sure I should advertise that
Replies: 86
Views: 10310

Re: i am my own "guy," but not sure I should advertise that

The majority of people have no real interest in personal finance or investing.
I don't see the harm in mentioning bogleheads, they are unlikely to ever visit.
by knpstr
Tue May 23, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

Factor investing, at least on one theory, is just doing this same thing but on a different dimension of risk than volatility. And if that risk does indeed occur at the portfolio level and is fundamentally about the investor, not the businesses, then in fact you probably don't need to know any more ...
by knpstr
Tue May 23, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

In business, we manage what we can measure, for better or worse (at least in my company). Munger says business management is all about incentives . But be careful how you do it! For example, incentives for new account openings, while made with good intention, can give one a wells fargo disaster. Al...
by knpstr
Tue May 23, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

What you find is that there is a slipperiness to the numbers. Doesn't mean the numbers are wrong but it means there are limitations upon what those numbers actually tell you. You just have to look underneath the hood and see what is behind those numbers. That is my take on the academic research reg...
by knpstr
Tue May 23, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

I think factor investing research (sans commercial connections) is an attempt to better understand and explain investment returns. The problem is nobody is very good at it yet. People are getting better. People are making progress. But valuation (as measured by PE ratios and PE10 ratios) is probabl...
by knpstr
Tue May 23, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2559

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

The problem with academic finance/economics is that they have what Munger calls "physics envy". "One of the problems he described was based on what he called "Physics Envy". This, Charlie Munger says, is "the craving for a false precision. The wanting of formula ...&quo...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Invest Church Money
Replies: 54
Views: 3746

Re: How to Invest Church Money

You obviously need some in cash equivalents to provide liquidity needs, perhaps the $250K and ongoing tithes will be sufficient. If you have truly long term money, you should invest in the stock market. You're church could eventually build an endowment to fund operations and charity work in the comm...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth is overrated
Replies: 76
Views: 8908

Re: Net worth is overrated

With all due respect, I do not know what prompted you to send this but I assume something involving yourself. I defy you to show me how somebody with 10 million dollars net worth can be in a worse position than somebody with nothing. I wouldn't say NW is overrated nor meaningless, but to simply ans...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Invest in Average?
Replies: 34
Views: 3005

Re: Why Invest in Average?

livesoft wrote:Answer: Because I don't want to invest in Below Average.


+1
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Typically when researchers and academics study risk/return and allocation they are also using volatility as a proxy for risk aren't they? I'd say no. There is the old CAPM model, which grew out of Modern Portfolio Theory, which tried to explain the cross-section of U.S. stock returns just with rela...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Actually, I think the error that keeps being made is assuming tail risks, like single-country political risks, aren't worth hedging when the hedge is cheap and easy just because that particular risk hasn't happened to show up in the last 100 years. Just curious on how much gold and silver you keep ...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Actually, I think the error that keeps being made is assuming tail risks, like single-country political risks, aren't worth hedging when the hedge is cheap and easy just because that particular risk hasn't happened to show up in the last 100 years. Just curious on how much gold and silver you keep ...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Actually, I think the error that keeps being made is assuming tail risks, like single-country political risks, aren't worth hedging when the hedge is cheap and easy just because that particular risk hasn't happened to show up in the last 100 years. Just curious on how much gold and silver you keep ...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

For example, even if the U.S. underperforms any other asset class or country index it can still give a result that is "good enough or fair". I hope I didn't make anyone's head explode. The worst cases involving all stocks going to zero. Are you suggesting that would be good enough? Even m...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

...Insurance, diversification, hedging, seat belts, and so on are never "necessary" if you get lucky and avoid the risk in question. It's when you don't get lucky that these sorts of measures prove useful. If you can identify a risk that can be completely avoided (for brevity I would poin...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Actually, I think the error that keeps being made is assuming tail risks, like single-country political risks, aren't worth hedging when the hedge is cheap and easy just because that particular risk hasn't happened to show up in the last 100 years. Just curious on how much gold and silver you keep ...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

...in the same sense that when I take my kids for a drive, they probably won't need their seatbelts. We've seen how the allocation to international "seatbelt" worked. I haven't had an accident with my kids in the car yet. Same logic. Maybe consider that it's not necessary to drive to get ...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

...in the same sense that when I take my kids for a drive, they probably won't need their seatbelts. We've seen how the allocation to international "seatbelt" worked. I haven't had an accident with my kids in the car yet. Same logic. Maybe consider that it's not necessary to drive to get ...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Yes that is the question, is it worth it? The broad answer is "it probably doesn't matter." I'd suggest the broad answer is more something like, "It probably won't matter much..." My thoughts too. What you cut out ("but it possibly could matter an awful lot") is the im...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth is overrated
Replies: 76
Views: 8908

Re: Net worth is overrated

Yes, like most respondents, calculating net worth is valuable for my personal circumstances but not nearly as useful when comparing to others. I find it isn't too useful for one to compare their finances with others. Comparing to others doesn't result in much good. It often leads to misguided envy/...
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:
knpstr wrote:Yes that is the question, is it worth it? The broad answer is "it probably doesn't matter."


I'd suggest the broad answer is more something like, "It probably won't matter much..."


My thoughts too.
by knpstr
Mon May 22, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

If someone says the U.S. "will give a fine result" and you interpret/read it as "guaranteed to outperform", I think there is a misunderstanding there. Well, the question is whether it is worth diversifying. If two assets are both expected to "give a fine result" but th...
by knpstr
Sun May 21, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

After reading all of the above reasonings it just seems a bit foolish to go against Buffett and Bogle`s reasonings. Yes they may come from an earlier era then most of us do but I feel and believe that they are certainly still very aware and rational thinkers investing wise. Of course time will tell...
by knpstr
Sun May 21, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

I don't know what you're talking about. Well, it is pretty simple. Someone wants to believe U.S. stocks are guaranteed to outperform in the future, and maybe has already committed themselves financially to such a position. People ask what justifies their position, and they point to things they like...
by knpstr
Sun May 21, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8340

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Anything is possible. But to assume the markets have mispriced things in just the way you need them to misprice things in order to justify a position you took for biased reasons creates a large risk of self-delusion." One's "need" for mispricing is irrelevant. Need in the sense that ...

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