Search found 1253 matches

by knpstr
Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 144
Views: 6676

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I agree as long as you are appropriately valuing the increase in risk. So, for example, a EE bond is essentially risk free. Yes, compare to stocks but you must calculate in the risk of owning stocks. And, of course, you may not desire to withdraw for 20 years but you may have to (emergencies etc.)....
by knpstr
Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 144
Views: 6676

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

FWIW, comparing bonds and stocks is NOT ridiculous at all. All of our choices must be compared against all available alternatives as all of our choices are inextricably linked by opportunity cost. In popular terms, the chief "benefit" of bonds and "risk" to stocks is volatility (...
by knpstr
Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 144
Views: 13144

Re: Social Security for Millennials

If social security remains solvent and provides as promised, apparently we do not need to save for retirement. ^ I nominate this for Boglehead Quote of the Year. ;) Yes, there are people with low enough expenses that they could live on Social Security alone. Especially in the Midwest. Knpstr is in ...
by knpstr
Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving... and U-haul trucks are expensive!
Replies: 25
Views: 2126

Re: Moving... and U-haul trucks are expensive!

aren't U-hauls only like $20 and then $.50 per mile + gas?
by knpstr
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single most important investing advice?
Replies: 64
Views: 4043

Re: Single most important investing advice?

always be buying and never sell.
by knpstr
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My Doctor says I am "unusual" (declining some blood tests)
Replies: 42
Views: 4271

Re: My Doctor says I am "unusual" (declining some blood tests)

EMRs/EHRs don't talk.

Just allows reviewers to read typed up reports easier vs handwritten scribble.
by knpstr
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Removing a tree - expensive!!!
Replies: 58
Views: 3808

Re: Removing a tree - expensive!!!

We just had a ~20-30ft birch up against the house removed and stump ground.

$300 total cost.
by knpstr
Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 144
Views: 6676

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Warren Buffett calls long-term bonds one of the worst investments. Buffett said that while the safety of investments in things like bonds are often lauded -- U.S. Treasury bonds had a yield of 5.7% since he took the helm at Berkshire 47 years ago -- he suggested that in reality "they are among ...
by knpstr
Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much to pay a housekeeper?
Replies: 23
Views: 2417

Re: How much to pay a housekeeper?

I can't contribute from "housekeeper experience", but $120/day and 8hrs/day = $15/hour That seems like a very fair rate in my opinion. You may want to bump if you really like them and want to make sure you keep them. I live in the Midwest and that is around the rate a lot of lower level fa...
by knpstr
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Initial Roth Investment - 24 years old
Replies: 7
Views: 571

Re: Advice for Initial Roth Investment - 24 years old

bfinners23 wrote:That's probably a bit of a typo, more like 4.5 months. It was honestly just including rent and basic food, like bare essentials. And no, I don't live at home with my parents.


Well good for you! You should be able to save a LOT of money and build wealth relatively quickly.

:beer
by knpstr
Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Initial Roth Investment - 24 years old
Replies: 7
Views: 571

Re: Advice for Initial Roth Investment - 24 years old

Probably just go with a target date fund or LifeStrategy Growth fund (80/20 your desired AA) that would be the simplest to manage.
Using TD is fine.

Note: You really only live on $6,000 per year?
by knpstr
Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency fund
Replies: 13
Views: 1610

Re: Emergency fund

View an emergency fund as insurance, not as an investment.
:beer
by knpstr
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To put 5k into my car loan or just keep it...
Replies: 41
Views: 2211

Re: To put 5k into my car loan or just keep it...

pay the extra money as soon as you have it.
Not only will you save on the interest, it will be "gone" and won't tempt you to buy something else with it as it builds.

:beer
by knpstr
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off these loans?
Replies: 24
Views: 2016

Re: Should I pay off these loans?

Nearly A Moose wrote:Scheduled the transfer from Vanguard to my checking account and got my payoff quotes from the lenders. Planning to zap the student loans out of existence on Friday, then will crack a cold one in their memory :)


Congrats, speaking from experience, they will NOT be missed!
:beer
by knpstr
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

Where did the $1.4M come from for the 100/0 investor though? You are assuming that the 60/40 portfolio grew ZERO when, as I showed earlier, the rate of return of a balanced portfolio typically trails a 100/0 mix by less than 1% - often much less. So let's look at that scenario again giving both por...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

Kevin okay okay okay for context... Even on a 100% stock portfolio Vanguard states that there were 25 out of 90 down years. (1926-2015). I'm willing to be "wrong" 28% of the time so that I can be "right" 72% of the time. then someone said as long as that 28% isn't for 28 straigh...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

No, you assume one will make to it 60 and $1.4 million before the drop happens. You are ignoring the case where one makes her goal of $1 million at 56, and a crash happens the next month. I'm saying one would be foolish to be at 100% stocks 4 years from retirement if you have already met your goal....
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

What I'm saying is when you're taking 2.9% (while others have to take 4% due to smaller nest egg size) from your portfolio sequence of returns becomes a much smaller problem, and therefore you can stay more aggressive. Everyone argues my point buy saying: 1. If x,y,z all have $1M look at these retu...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

Please go back and review my replies from the beginning. My intent was simply to argue against a couple of ways you characterized down stock markets. I said nothing at all about the argument you want to keep repeating, and indeed, I have repeatedly said that of course it's true. Fair enough. You wa...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

You are asserting that retiring in 2000 with your 100% stock allocation you'd be OK nine years later with your portfolio at 50% of its starting value without any withdrawals at all. And maybe you would. Most people would probably panic and sell by that point. Particularly since the meltdown in 2008...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

If I understand your argument it is that: 1) stocks are better for the long haul historically 2) therefore you should invest in 100% stocks at all times I agree with point 1. I'm baffled by point 2. If one invests for 100% stocks in one's accumulating years and has accumulated by retirement enough ...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

He's obviously not having to practice what he is preaching. Unless he gets a nice pension from megacorp when he retires he is going to habpve to live on that money. I am having to live on my retirement savings now with no pension. I am not yet 55. So this bit of money has to pay for my medical insu...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

So what? I never said otherwise, so why do you keep wanting to argue against a strawman? So what? Arguing against a strawman? I am the one trying to make this point, the topic in question can't be a strawman. Everyone else is going off on tangents. The point I'm trying to make is that by investing ...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is my electric bill high?
Replies: 58
Views: 4520

Re: Is my electric bill high?

yes on both fronts.

You seem to be using a lot of kwh, and you seem to be paying a lot per kwh. But you are in CA...so I don't know those rates, but I have to pay about 11.5c per kwh, where you are at about 20c per kwh.

:beer
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate rate of return?
Replies: 34
Views: 2946

Re: Real estate rate of return?

Not exactly enough info here on projections but:

From a pure investment perspective...seems a little too risky given relatively modest potential reward.
From a lifestyle perspective... seems less than ideal.

:beer
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is all the money flowing into index funds bad?
Replies: 21
Views: 2893

Re: Is all the money flowing into index funds bad?

I think it is a very interesting trend.
Though I don't attempt to pick stocks, I'm also not a true subscriber of the famous hypothesis of efficient markets.

:beer
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

For the comparison to bonds and cash, yes, but that has nothing to do with the observation that you were underwater for more than 10 years with stocks in real terms. Yes, but it has to do with my point that those that were more aggressive during the long haul can "afford to lose more" in ...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

Fine, but what I shared was in response to what I quoted you as saying, about the longest multi-year down period being the 4-year period 1929-1932. I'm pointing out that looking at it this way is flawed. If you measure in real terms, the drawdown period until recovery for US stocks lasted more than...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

Kevin The quoted pieces above was my response to someone saying I need to prepare for "28 consecutive years" of a down market. So I was attempting to demonstrate how exaggerated that was. To the point of your 9 year stint, you are again making the assumption that so many make, that I don'...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

If one retired in 2000 the 70/30 is still better than 100% stocks. How do you reconcile this statement with the above graph showing that 100% stocks portfolio didn't reach the low of the 70/30 portfolio? You can clearly see that red line is lower than the blue at 2003. Beyond that: On that chart at...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on Cash
Replies: 24
Views: 3371

Re: Sitting on Cash

I am currently sitting on a substantial amount of cash...which I plan on using to buy my first house. Right now, I have enough for a 50% down payment, plus a good amount for an emergency fund. Currently, I am under no pressure to buy my first house. I also have roughly 50k set aside for retirement,...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

The 70/30 portfolio will, potentially, have significantly more dollars in the account, often not just during the bad year itself, but for several years, sometimes 4-5 years or even more, after a bad year. In exchange for only a loss of a few tenths of a percent return even accounting for long bull ...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

Comparing 100% of one holding or another doesn't make for a terribly useful comparison between asset classes. The much more important calculation, IMO, is the comparison of risk vs. reward between a 100/0 portfolio and a portfolio of somewhere between 60/40 and 80/20. The risk-adjusted return becom...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is spending 15K to furnish home too much?
Replies: 39
Views: 4175

Re: Is spending 15K to furnish home too much?

gasdoc wrote:We spent $11,000 on a dining room table 25 years ago.

If you decide to go the route of buying quality wood furniture that will last a lifetime (we did)


Just have to make sure the wife's preferences last a lifetime. That is the real challenge!

:beer
by knpstr
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

Probably at some point in the past, you would have looked at climate data and concluded that "inevitably" the "long term" trend was up - right before an ice age surprisingly and suddenly showed up. These things happen, and much of what we do is based on observations of only a ti...
by knpstr
Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much money do you need to generate $50,000 per month?
Replies: 60
Views: 7390

Re: How much money do you need to generate $50,000 per month?

$6,000,000 in paid for real estate at a 10 cap

:beer
by knpstr
Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 127
Views: 11082

Re: Do you have an umbrella policy?

Don't settlements usually go for whatever someone's insurance is, within reason?

If $5M policy, settle for $5M
If $1M policy, settle for $1M

While not absolutely true, isn't this part of the game?

It's no use suing for $10M when someone is worth $400K
by knpstr
Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you ever rent a house to a family member?
Replies: 21
Views: 1276

Re: Would you ever rent a house to a family member?

Some do it, but it's usually a bad idea.

:beer
by knpstr
Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

that ??? I don't know what that means. My own experience is that it's difficult to stick with equities through year after year of substantially negative returns, especially when your employment income has also dropped by 50% or more. That -- means that your highly exaggerated situation is what you ...
by knpstr
Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

tibbitts wrote:The question is whether you'd still feel that way if that 28% happens to be 28 consecutive years, and you no longer have a weekly paycheck.


Why is that question?

Also, with reinvested dividends the market can be down over a period and yet your portfolio can still be up.
by knpstr
Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

What money do you use to buy more stocks in a bear market if you have no bonds? Weekly paycheck Wouldn't it be nice to have part of your portfolio generating positive return so that you can buy when the market is on sale? No, it is nice to have that 10% or 20% of my portfolio in stocks over the lon...
by knpstr
Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?
Replies: 92
Views: 8780

Re: Why would anyone want to buy bond funds?

If stocks only went up, there would be no reason to have bonds. This is actually why I don't own any bonds, haha! Stocks, as a whole, do always go up. As a relatively young person, volatility is meaningless it is not a risk whatsoever, it is only noise. So stocks win in the long run. I'm not going ...
by knpstr
Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains on Real Estate Sale
Replies: 6
Views: 747

Re: Capital Gains on Real Estate Sale

Capital gain amount AFTER exclusion for wife and I would be $500K plus $80K taxable income.


Wow!! Congrats to you on selling your house for $1,000,000 more than you paid for it! What an investment!

Unfortunately I can't help with the tax liability question.

:beer
by knpstr
Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Downgrading Comcast (with no other competition)
Replies: 31
Views: 2015

Re: Downgrading Comcast (with no other competition)

I pay $64.95/mo for Comcast internet service and is the only service I have with them. I also use my own modem, don't rent one from them. Before I dropped TV my bill was ~$145/mo (I think? it's been a few years). My comcast TV was all in standard definition. For TV I use SlingTv $19.99/mo for HD I a...
by knpstr
Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will it be a mistake to buy VTSMX today?
Replies: 39
Views: 3877

Re: Will it be a mistake to buy VTSMX today?

Any day you buy VTSMX is a good day

:beer
by knpstr
Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off debt or fund retirement accounts?
Replies: 23
Views: 1588

Re: Pay off debt or fund retirement accounts?

The first step is stop going further into debt. So no more using credit cards or taking out any other loans. Next, leave $1,000 in the emergency fund then use the $16,000 (and anything else you have) to pay off in this order. Pay off in this order: $1,600 student loan $4,200 credit card $7,980 credi...
by knpstr
Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you do with your coins?
Replies: 76
Views: 3891

Re: What do you do with your coins?

I turn most all of my coins into electronic money by depositing them in the bank.

I always have a few in my car to pay with exact change on some drive-thru occasions.
I do keep some small amount of money in the house, but usually in the form of $20s not coins.

:beer
by knpstr
Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 144
Views: 13144

Re: Social Security for Millennials

Well, I certainly hope we get what we are promised. Using SSA.gov "quick calculator" my monthly (inflated) benefits are estimated at: Age 62: $5,590/mo 67: $9,188/mo 70: $12,423/mo But I still consider it foolish to adjust my savings down and become voluntarily dependent upon it seeing th...
by knpstr
Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 144
Views: 13144

Re: Social Security for Millennials

It is quite humorous that people come on here and state they don't take into account any SS in their future plans but likely have 16 significant figures in their real expected return for their portfolio for the next 30 years before retirement, plan to max out all retirement accounts etc. As if thei...
by knpstr
Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to slow down.
Replies: 33
Views: 5113

Re: When to slow down.

Generally speaking, you can "let up" after baby step 3: that is out of all consumer debt and fully funded emergency fund.

:beer

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