Search found 302 matches

by kayanco
Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 169
Views: 35978

Re: "Predicting the Past"

It does not exactly answer your question, but I am reminded of this long forgotten post by a very smart investor with the username "Ozark": PREDICTING THE PAST Best wishes. Taylor Any place we can read more of Ozark? I tried Google and also the forum but nothing comes up except his post a...
by kayanco
Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Thank you all. I'm grateful to folks who replied. I do have a follow-up question: I just listed to the YouTube discussion between Fama and Thaler (Are markets efficient?), and one take-away seemed to be that an average investor should behave as if the markets were efficient. And if I remember corre...
by kayanco
Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 169
Views: 35978

Re: "Predicting the Past"

Can anyone tell (and convince) me which fund is the best? flyingaway: No one can tell you which fund will turn out to be best because no one can predict the future . Lot's of investors try to figure out which fund or funds will beat the market by using figures from past performance or with complex ...
by kayanco
Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 169
Views: 35978

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

... We all know that we cannot make any assumptions about which specific asset class or style will perform in the future but one and only one: that the domestic and world economies will grow and so will our equity portfolios. I just stumbled upon this thread. It makes sense to me that it's likely i...
by kayanco
Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with all these passwords ?
Replies: 104
Views: 5913

Re: What to do with all these passwords ?

+1 for LastPass.

I've been using it for years, and I think it's very useful. You can also change the settings based based on how you'd like it to work.
Along with storing passwords, it can save information you normally fill out on forms, etc.

Good luck.
by kayanco
Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What makes an individual an Expert?
Replies: 62
Views: 3772

Re: What makes an individual an Expert?

I have not read Anders Ericsson yet, but I've read references to his work. The way I understand Ericsson's research, one should not just put 10,000 of practice, but have 10,000 hours of difficult practice, stretching one's ability to a level of discomfort. This is similar to exercising to exhaustio...
by kayanco
Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What makes an individual an Expert?
Replies: 62
Views: 3772

Re: What makes an individual an Expert?

[Instead of creating a new topic I came across this thread] I was reading some material on Anders Ericsson's concept of Deliberate Practice (where 10 years/10,000 hours of practice with feedback is crucial for being an expert). This reminded me of a common Boglehead-type theme that active managers a...
by kayanco
Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1733
Views: 940892

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio. Answer to questions

I have three questions on the 3-fund portfolio please[/url] 2. Can i-bonds substitute for the bond portion of the 3-fund portfolio? Yes. Most fixed-income income investments (including I-bonds) are safe and will provide safety in a portfolio. I like Total Bond Market for its diversification, simpli...
by kayanco
Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1733
Views: 940892

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I have three questions on the 3-fund portfolio please: 1. If someone started with a 90/10 (stock/bond) based 3-fund portfolio, but then never ever rebalanced it, how terrible is that? 2. Can i-bonds substitute for the bond portion of the 3-fund portfolio? 3. If someone just has 100% Total Internatio...
by kayanco
Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to recognize self-help, pop-statistics, “Big Idea” books?
Replies: 4
Views: 410

How to recognize self-help, pop-statistics, “Big Idea” books?

Hi, Since I respect the knowledge of folks here, I'd like to ask for some guidance. Can you please either answer or point me to some resources? 1. How do I recognize a self-help book? More generally I'm trying to educate myself on the genres of books. If I see a book, how do I know what category it ...
by kayanco
Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

I have quote of Nassim Taleb: "the more data you get, the less you know what’s going on". And Thomas Jefferson: "The man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them; inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with f...
by kayanco
Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

I have quote of Nassim Taleb: "the more data you get, the less you know what’s going on". And Thomas Jefferson: "The man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them; inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with fa...
by kayanco
Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Think About Money" A Gem
Replies: 13
Views: 4524

Re: "How to Think About Money" A Gem

It means don't put all your eggs in one (country) basket. .. Two follow up question came to my mind. If I look at a sample 3-fund portfolio, it's about 80% US (stocks + bonds). Can you help understand if this is same or different than what's described about Japan above? And, just wondering, for som...
by kayanco
Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Think About Money" A Gem
Replies: 13
Views: 4524

Re: arcticpineapplecorp's reply.

Thank you Taylor, for posting this! I found these to be very helpful. "At year-end 1989 the Nikkei 225 hit its all-time high. More than a quarter century later, Japanese stocks remain stalled at less than half their 1989 level." Can you please help me understand the implication of this? I...
by kayanco
Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Hi friends, I'm looking to get an overview of how the works of Eugene Fama, Robet Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler, etc., interrelate with each other, how they compare/contrast? How to mentally categorize them (like which camp they belong to). Also want to get an idea whose works are more rigorous,...
by kayanco
Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Think About Money" A Gem
Replies: 13
Views: 4524

Re: "How to Think About Money" A Gem

Thank you Taylor, for posting this! I found these to be very helpful. "At year-end 1989 the Nikkei 225 hit its all-time high. More than a quarter century later, Japanese stocks remain stalled at less than half their 1989 level." Can you please help me understand the implication of this? I...
by kayanco
Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Think About Money" A Gem
Replies: 13
Views: 4524

Re: "How to Think About Money" A Gem

Thank you Taylor, for posting this! I found these to be very helpful. "At year-end 1989 the Nikkei 225 hit its all-time high. More than a quarter century later, Japanese stocks remain stalled at less than half their 1989 level." Can you please help me understand the implication of this? I ...
by kayanco
Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What life lessons are key for children?
Replies: 10
Views: 1047

Re: What life lessons are key for children?

This is a very good question in my opinion. I like the advice of Nassim Taleb on this: "How can we teach children skills for the twenty-first century, since we do not know which skills will be needed? Effectively my answer would make them read the classics . The future is in the past." And...
by kayanco
Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

I came across this article: http://www.businessinsider.com/interview-with-nassim-taleb-2010-4 Where Nassim Taleb was very critical of Thomas Friedman and Tyler Cowen. I'm a little familiar with Cowen's work "Average Is Over". Can anyone elaborate on the connection between Taleb and ideas o...
by kayanco
Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help explain: bond prices and interest rate link
Replies: 24
Views: 2052

Re: Help explain: bond prices and interest rate link

I wanted to thank all who answered and were kind enough to explain this to me: Oicuryy Ari GuitarXM capgain dm200 ogd Kevin M nisiprius longinvest TropikThunder I'm grateful for your help. Or, if it's OK with the OP that we hijack this thread to continue the discussion here, I'm game. Kevin I'm okay...
by kayanco
Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help explain: bond prices and interest rate link
Replies: 24
Views: 2052

Help explain: bond prices and interest rate link

Hi, I have two requests/questions. I recently read this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/your-money/what-you-think-you-know-about-money-but-dont-can-hurt-you.html It talks of a long-running study based on a quiz of basic financial understanding and states that most Americans have “relative...
by kayanco
Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.

Well, I worry that I implied a deeper familiarity with Gigerenzer's work than I have, so I should qualify this by saying I was very familiar back in grad school. I'll give brief overviews of Kahneman's and Gigerenzer's stances and provide a link to a nice overview of the normative debate. And the b...
by kayanco
Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.

I'd second reading Levine's write-up if you want a counter-argument to behavioral work, though it very selectively samples the literature (who doesn't?). It's not overly convincing, but he makes good points. Gigerenzer has indeed spent much of his career having a one-sided argument with Kahneman. T...
by kayanco
Sun Aug 21, 2016 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Btw, is Black swan idea the same as Turkey Illusion? (may also be known as calculable risk illusion) I never heard of Turkey Illusion, but the humor of the term caused me to look it up. http://www.psyfitec.com/2014/05/the-turkey-illusion-audience-with-gerd.html Interesting. In a simple system where...
by kayanco
Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

protagonist wrote:...
He also seems to have a lot of pretty loony ideas, so you need to be able to separate the signal from the noise.


What would be some of his loony ideas? If you care to elaborate. Thanks.

Btw, is Black swan idea the same as Turkey Illusion? (may also be known as calculable risk illusion)
by kayanco
Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

... however unpalatable since it sort of implies lack of control over one's future, and that the best laid plans of mice and men often go astray in time. This is anathema to what we like to believe. ... Would this idea or sentiment apply to overall life in general as well? Meaning, if someone decid...
by kayanco
Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.

That being said, if one really wants to practically apply behavioral science in their own lives (personal, work), I highly recommend reading "Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work" by Chip and Dan Heath. See: http://heathbrothers.com/books/decisive/. I agree, after reading...
by kayanco
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.

You might be interested to know that Daniel Kahneman--the man himself--takes issue with how the term "behavioral economics" has been deployed. Kahneman prefers the term "behavioral science." http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/26/daniel-kahneman-s-gripe-with-behavioral...
by kayanco
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.

"How We Know What Isn't So" is a popular book. As far as investing & psychology, the markets are efficient enough such that it's not worth trading. edit: you might also like this podcast http://ritholtz.com/2015/06/mib-richard-thaler-on-the-human-side-of-economics/ Thanks. I'll take a...
by kayanco
Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Recently I've come across comments/material, making me want to understand the shortcomings/drawbacks of behavioral economics. So I've requested a book suggestion: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=197678 Some examples: 1. On reading a little of Gerd Gigerenzer ... if I rememb...
by kayanco
Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Book - Criticism of behavioral economics.

Hi, I'm looking for a critique of behavioral economics, behavioral science research. Any book suggestion on this please? (or article, video) I've read material like Predictably Irrational, Thinking Fast and Slow, Decisive etc. I'm looking for a skeptical perspective on this type of psychological res...
by kayanco
Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Thanks to all the kind folks who helped with the discussion. I found it very useful. Thank you all.
by kayanco
Fri Aug 12, 2016 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

I think there is a case for starting a couple of books. Say maybe Kahneman's "thinking fast and slow" and something by Taleb and/or Thaler. Kahneman's "thinking fast and slow" is great but very dense and academic IMHO. I think it could be easy to "give up". I would lea...
by kayanco
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Thank you all. I'm grateful to folks who replied. I do have a follow-up question: I just listed to the YouTube discussion between Fama and Thaler (Are markets efficient?), and one take-away seemed to be that an average investor should behave as if the markets were efficient. And if I remember correc...
by kayanco
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 5282

How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Hi friends, I'm looking to get an overview of how the works of Eugene Fama, Robet Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler, etc., interrelate with each other, how they compare/contrast? How to mentally categorize them (like which camp they belong to). Also want to get an idea whose works are more rigorous, ...
by kayanco
Sun Mar 27, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?
Replies: 42
Views: 3853

Re: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?

Friends, Your responses and my research put me on a divergent expedition :) With your knowledge/experience, can you please help me converge on a reading plan: Quick background: Books like Thinking Fast and Slow (and similar) helped me tremendously and educated me on cognitive biases, especially conf...
by kayanco
Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?
Replies: 42
Views: 3853

Re: Critical thinking suggestion please?

Ludwig Wittgenstein's "Philosophical Investigations". Simple rules? No. Useful? Yes. A good entry point is Marie McGinn's book on Wittgenstein's "Philosophical Investigations ( 1997) ... Thanks for the suggestion. I looked into it and it seems to be listed in Volume 55 of the "G...
by kayanco
Fri Mar 25, 2016 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?
Replies: 42
Views: 3853

Re: Critical thinking suggestion please?

Follow-up to my original question: Today I came across this video claiming "adding milk to tea can block its beneficial effects" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3KGv1J0qt4 I found myself disagreeing. BUT, Having read some books like 'Thinking Fast and Slow', I know I'm biased because I my...
by kayanco
Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?
Replies: 42
Views: 3853

Re: Critical thinking suggestion please?

Thinking for a Change by John C. Maxwell. It is a broader approach to thinking than just critical thinking, covering a variety of aspects of thinking that we all need to have. Maxwell is one of my favorite authors. I'm familiar with his work, 15 Invaluable Laws of Growth. Do you know if it's simila...
by kayanco
Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clarification on trend/crowd following?
Replies: 19
Views: 1421

Re: Clarification on trend/crowd following?

Thank you everyone.
by kayanco
Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?
Replies: 42
Views: 3853

Re: Critical thinking suggestion please?

HS, senior class & reading material: International Baccalaureate, Theory of Knowledge Opposite of this is being overly cautious and never, ever make a decision. An example on this forum, is using a fee paid advisor vs commissioned, vs AUM. Why, for this forum, is one preferred over another? :co...
by kayanco
Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?
Replies: 42
Views: 3853

Re: Critical thinking suggestion please?

How about The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking: Concepts and Tools ? pdf here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjcrcTJv9XLAhXHTCYKHRnOBaoQFggdMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.criticalthinking.org%2Ffiles%2FCon...
by kayanco
Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clarification on trend/crowd following?
Replies: 19
Views: 1421

Re: Clarification on trend/crowd following?

Than you to all who replied. Very useful comments. I guess I'm still confused over ... like what criterion to use to decide whether to take some advice or not. I know in many life cases, I can reply on collective advice, like if multiple people tell me they've had a bad experience with a product ......
by kayanco
Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?
Replies: 42
Views: 3853

[Recommend book(s) on] Critical thinking, suggestion please?

Hi guys, Can you kindly recommend me a book on critical thinking: Which has some kind of structure or steps (simple rules/heuristics) that can be followed. (to separate truth from falsehood, useful from useless/hype) I have read books like, Thinking fast and slow, Predictably irrational, Nassim Tale...
by kayanco
Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clarification on trend/crowd following?
Replies: 19
Views: 1421

Clarification on trend/crowd following?

Hi guys, I have a question that's perplexing me, and wondering if someone can help clarify my thinking please. Good investing advice, suggests not to follow the general public, but do the opposite ... e.g. if everyone is buying a stock, it doesn't mean we should do the same. Or if everyone is sellin...
by kayanco
Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buddhism book? Dhammapada - Satipatthana Sutta
Replies: 1
Views: 478

Buddhism book? Dhammapada - Satipatthana Sutta

Hi, I was wondering if there's anyone who has read the Dhammapada books, and could suggest a good English translation (with explanatory commentary)? I see several on Amazon but not sure which to read? Also, can anyone explain the connection between the Dhammapada and the Satipatthana Sutta? Thanks.
by kayanco
Sun Jul 05, 2015 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bernstein - ["Against the Gods" versus] Nassim Taleb
Replies: 7
Views: 1868

Re: Bernstein - ["Against the Gods" versus] Nassim Taleb

That's really helpful!

Thanks everyone for chiming in and sharing your thoughts. It's very nice of you all.

Thanks!!
by kayanco
Thu Jul 02, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bernstein - ["Against the Gods" versus] Nassim Taleb
Replies: 7
Views: 1868

Bernstein - ["Against the Gods" versus] Nassim Taleb

Hi all, Has anyone read both these authors? Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk - Peter Bernstein and Nassim Taleb (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness) If so, could you please explain, compare/contrast them? (Are they making the same point, compatible with each other, or, t...

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